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On June 07 2013 20:42 prplhz wrote:
Right.
I don't see why a scum Ace would want to trade 1-for-1 with some townie that people were already throwing suspicion on. The most logical conclusion then is that he is town who got a red check. I'm not willing to dismiss a red check because of the 1/9 offchance that you're the miller. There are also some other things pointing at you being scum such as your weird Ace push yesterday and how you wanted us to lynch outside of you and Ace. Scum would obviously want that because if Ace flips town then you're dead the next day, delaying this little duel you have going will net you extra KP for another cycle which is bad.
Because he felt he couldnt handle the pressure.
Look Prp, from my perspective. IM FUCKING TOWN.
So therefore, either im miller, 1/9 right? Or Ace is scum. Which one is better?
Yeah Ace is scum.
Prp, someone suggested killing outside the 2 of us and I supported it BEFORE I knew that killing scum today would reduce KP.
That guy might be scum, I need to check.
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I don't really think of Ace as someone who crumbles under what little pressure he was under.
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On June 07 2013 21:53 prplhz wrote:
I don't really think of Ace as someone who crumbles under what little pressure he was under.
So much pressure.
Kita for one.
Prp, if you think im town, Ace must be scum right?
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On June 07 2013 11:21 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2013 11:16 JarJarDrinks wrote:On June 07 2013 09:38 Oatsmaster wrote:On June 07 2013 09:27 JarJarDrinks wrote:On June 07 2013 09:18 Oatsmaster wrote:On June 07 2013 09:06 JarJarDrinks wrote:
Good Job Ace. He actually had changed my mind somewhat overnight so I'm glad you checked him. Where/how? Because you were agreeing w/ me about Sent and his scumslip. I was pretty convinced that Sent was scum and would almost surely be voting him now if Ace hadn't caught you. But now I see that you were sheeping me because my read was off. Or perhaps you were bussing but I think that's way less likely @ this point. ummmmm? So I was looking townier and townier and BAM COP CHECK YOU MUST BE RED! That doesnt make much sense JJD. Yep. Just taking the #s into account. Odds of mafia getting cop are so much less then then town getting cop. Not a point. Show nested quote +
Then, I fail to see a reason for a scum Ace to lie here. Just to get a single mislych? How is that a good scum play? Scum gets a blue role and THAT's how they try to utilize it?
He can just say, OH MILLER MY BAD. And cause its 1 shot night roles, he doesnt have to explain why he is alive or not roleblocked or whatever. You understand? 1 reason why I think Ace is scum its cause he isnt addressing the scum side of possibly claiming cop in this setup AT all. Thats bad. Thats really bad. Show nested quote +
And then there's the fact that I think you look alot scummier than Ace. I may have started to doubt my initial scumread on you, but I've never had a scumread on Ace
you're wrong about me. Maybe you are wrong about Ace too. It is a point. It may not be a point that stands on it's own. But it would be dumb not to take it into consideration.
You know that he can't just say "OH MILLER MY BAD" and expect to not get lynched. There's like a 6% chance that you rolled miller. We just can't take miniscule possiblities into account like that.
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You know that he can't just say "OH MILLER MY BAD" and expect to not get lynched. There's like a 6% chance that you rolled miller. We just can't take miniscule possiblities into account like that.
You know, he really could.
The only thing that matters with this lynch, is whether you think me or Ace is scum.
Ignore the cop check or unlikelyness that I am miller or that Ace is dumb to fakeclaim cop.
IGNORE THAT.
Go and figure out, with reasons, why either of us is scum. All the night actions or fakeclaims did was pick todays lynch between me and Ace. Thats all. Anything further relating to that is useless speculation
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On June 07 2013 22:08 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +You know that he can't just say "OH MILLER MY BAD" and expect to not get lynched. There's like a 6% chance that you rolled miller. We just can't take miniscule possiblities into account like that.
You know, he really could. He could but it wouldn't work. If you flip green, he's gonna get lynched, period.
The only thing that matters with this lynch, is whether you think me or Ace is scum. OK, I think you're scum.
Ignore the cop check or unlikelyness that I am miller or that Ace is dumb to fakeclaim cop.
IGNORE THAT. Why would we ignore that? The fact that this action makes absolute zero sense for a scum Ace to do is a HUGE part of the case against you. Scum is not gonna make a one for one trade. Town on the other hand will make that trade every time.
Go and figure out, with reasons, why either of us is scum. All the night actions or fakeclaims did was pick todays lynch between me and Ace. Thats all. Anything further relating to that is useless speculation No it's usefull speculation. The reason you don't want people to look @ that piece of evidence is because of how bad it makes you look.
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No it's usefull speculation. The reason you don't want people to look @ that piece of evidence is because of how bad it makes you look.
Yes it makes me look bad, no its not fucking relevant. Ask Kita, Ask Ace. This numbers thing should not be why you wanna lynch me rather than Ace.
Why would we ignore that? The fact that this action makes absolute zero sense for a scum Ace to do is a HUGE part of the case against you. Scum is not gonna make a one for one trade. Town on the other hand will make that trade every time.
Scum IS gonna make a 1 for 1 trade rather than a 1 for none. Especially since they get rid of a vocal townie in the process. Ace may have felt that this ploy was the only way he would survive to the end of the day. I dont know. Too many things to speculate about which means that its not useful in determining my alignment, or Ace's alignment.
OK, I think you're scum.
Tell me why please, not referring to the fact that I am checked red by a claimed cop.
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You know what would help?
If I suddenly changed my name to marvellosity....
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On June 07 2013 21:57 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2013 21:53 prplhz wrote:
I don't really think of Ace as someone who crumbles under what little pressure he was under. So much pressure. Kita for one. Prp, if you think im town, Ace must be scum right?
In all likelihood.
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On June 07 2013 22:05 JarJarDrinks wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2013 11:21 Oatsmaster wrote:On June 07 2013 11:16 JarJarDrinks wrote:On June 07 2013 09:38 Oatsmaster wrote:On June 07 2013 09:27 JarJarDrinks wrote:On June 07 2013 09:18 Oatsmaster wrote:On June 07 2013 09:06 JarJarDrinks wrote:
Good Job Ace. He actually had changed my mind somewhat overnight so I'm glad you checked him. Where/how? Because you were agreeing w/ me about Sent and his scumslip. I was pretty convinced that Sent was scum and would almost surely be voting him now if Ace hadn't caught you. But now I see that you were sheeping me because my read was off. Or perhaps you were bussing but I think that's way less likely @ this point. ummmmm? So I was looking townier and townier and BAM COP CHECK YOU MUST BE RED! That doesnt make much sense JJD. Yep. Just taking the #s into account. Odds of mafia getting cop are so much less then then town getting cop. Not a point.
Then, I fail to see a reason for a scum Ace to lie here. Just to get a single mislych? How is that a good scum play? Scum gets a blue role and THAT's how they try to utilize it?
He can just say, OH MILLER MY BAD. And cause its 1 shot night roles, he doesnt have to explain why he is alive or not roleblocked or whatever. You understand? 1 reason why I think Ace is scum its cause he isnt addressing the scum side of possibly claiming cop in this setup AT all. Thats bad. Thats really bad.
And then there's the fact that I think you look alot scummier than Ace. I may have started to doubt my initial scumread on you, but I've never had a scumread on Ace
you're wrong about me. Maybe you are wrong about Ace too. It is a point. It may not be a point that stands on it's own. But it would be dumb not to take it into consideration. You know that he can't just say "OH MILLER MY BAD" and expect to not get lynched. There's like a 6% chance that you rolled miller. We just can't take miniscule possiblities into account like that.
it's a 1 in 9 chance if oats is town. which is 11%, players only get 1 role so miller was one of the vts.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
First off, Ace's "if Oats flips town you can cop check me" idea is absolutely terrible. If oats flips town then we lynch Ace and use the cop check on a player who know don't already know the alignment of.
1:1 trade is deceiving in name. It's really 1 mafia in exchange for two wasted cycles of discussion, a mislynch, and an extra kp by preserving the mafia numbers.
10v3 would end up as 6v2, assuming no saves, although saves are pretty likely in this setup. Speaking of the setup, I think a shorter game definitely benefits mafia and mafia do appear to be playing the numbers game based on the night hits.
From a mafia perspective, in Ace's position, I would only make the fake claim if I deemed the upcoming cycle to be doomed from the start, whether it be the top two mafia candidates being scum or the top scum candidate being unquestionably lynched. 6v2 gives the mafia a fighting chance, but 9v2 is pretty much over.
I hate that Ace is the one providing the check, but I think a cop check is a sub-optimal mafia strategy from his current position. If I were a mafia Ace, I'd go for the mislynch this cycle and pull shenanigans on day three if the opportunity were available. If he is indeed offering himself up in a poor exchange, then I suppose we take it and go into day four in a good position.
If I had a town read on Oats, I might reconsider, but with him flopping from Sent to prpl and then considering for a moment that someone other than Ace should be lynched,
##Vote: Oatsmaster
I do question in what world Ace considers being afk as a viable defense. If you're busy, yet still signed up for the game, give up some sleep if you have to. I'm quite willing to switch back to Ace if he doesn't provide a scum read outside of a cop check on Oats. As a town cop, he certainly has put no effort into establishing his credibility and he needs to comment on other individuals.
Oats, I'd suggest you provide as many reads as possible. Calling people scum in caps doesn't count. Maybe you can sway me.
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Kita,
I dont think prp is currently scum, sent scumslipped so there's that too. Ace/Sent wouldve probably been discussion topics, and now its Ace and me.
Someone other than Ace should be lynched when there is a possibility of me having gotten miller. Which is low. And since I read through his filter again, and the fact that mafia KP gets lowered if we lynch scum today, I firmly wanna lynch Ace.
Why are you so dense?
You see, my current hypothesis about Ace's absence, is that he knew he would be absent and he knew that fakeclaiming cop check on me would be the only way someone other than him gets lynched.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 07 2013 23:31 Oatsmaster wrote:
I dont think prp is currently scum, sent scumslipped so there's that too. Ace/Sent wouldve probably been discussion topics, and now its Ace and me.
Could you explain why prpl is town and why sent is scum (outside of a slip?). Also, a guess regarding the 4th suspect and a case would be helpful. Thoughts about layabout?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 07 2013 23:31 Oatsmaster wrote:
Why are you so dense?
Mostly because said that you hated me. That really, really hurt 
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Absence isn't a scum tell on its own.
I also don't think Ace was a guaranteed lynch without the claim.
I need to check both of you guys but right now I'm finding it hard to believe ace would lie when it wasn't absolutely necessary.
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On June 07 2013 22:28 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +No it's usefull speculation. The reason you don't want people to look @ that piece of evidence is because of how bad it makes you look.
Yes it makes me look bad, no its not fucking relevant. Ask Kita, Ask Ace. This numbers thing should not be why you wanna lynch me rather than Ace. All I'm saying is it should be taken into consideration. It should NOT ne ignored.
Show nested quote +Why would we ignore that? The fact that this action makes absolute zero sense for a scum Ace to do is a HUGE part of the case against you. Scum is not gonna make a one for one trade. Town on the other hand will make that trade every time. Scum IS gonna make a 1 for 1 trade rather than a 1 for none. Especially since they get rid of a vocal townie in the process. Ace may have felt that this ploy was the only way he would survive to the end of the day. I dont know. Too many things to speculate about which means that its not useful in determining my alignment, or Ace's alignment.
See this is why Ace's play makes no sense for scum. You're saying that there's too many things to speculate about. But I'm not seeing any situation that makes sense here for scum. Please point out a scenerio where Ace exposing himself makes sense. Because "he felt he couldnt handle the pressure." sure as heck isn't a good reason.
Tell me why please, not referring to the fact that I am checked red by a claimed cop.
+ Show Spoiler +: On June 05 2013 21:39 JarJarDrinks wrote:##Vote Oatsmaster His gung-ho Ace-is-def-scum-guys push seems so contrived. I can't imagine he can actually act so cocksure, especially when his reasons are so weak. Here's his reasoning (which btw came 12 hours after his vote): Show nested quote +On June 05 2013 13:17 Oatsmaster wrote:
Lets lynch Ace guys.
His contributions have been setup speculation, and a random vote on WoS, and defending mkfuba for basically no reason. Scum love to defend people cause it makes them look good.
He never explained his vote and he doesnt seem intent to.
WAGON OF JUSTICE! I don't want to really defend Ace since he isn't exactly playing pro-town, but these reasons are terrible: - "His contributions have been setup speculation" - Ace just made one post saying we should claim and report results. Oats was the one prodding him further which forced Ace to talk more about it - "random vote on WoS." - OK, I'll agree w/ this one. Random votes are lame. I'd like to see him explain if he actually has a reason for voting WoS or if it was truly random. - "defending mkfuba for basically no reason." Here's the post he's talking about: Show nested quote +On June 05 2013 02:04 Ace wrote:On June 05 2013 01:57 VayneAuthority wrote:On June 05 2013 01:56 Ace wrote:oh, well of course  I was thinking someone would be like "that claim is bullshit!" then we have to force people to read the OP. Again. lol, how do you feel about mkfuba strolling into the thread and just choosing something random to quote then peacing out? I like to to call that illusionary participation unless thats common for him or something slightly bad but nothing damning at the moment. He could easily have just left the forum after asking. His "Scum love to defend people cause it makes them look good." is dumb. How is that post supposed to make Ace look good? Ace was specifically asked what he thought and he answered. How can that possibly be seen as scummy? Not to mention the fact that there's plenty of people posting "defences" for other people On June 05 2013 22:34 JarJarDrinks wrote:Show nested quote +On June 05 2013 22:07 Oatsmaster wrote:
Whoop
OMGUS from a newbie.
Wonderful. Huh? You voted him without explaining your vote. Something that you're accusing him of. Yes, you eventually gave your weak reasoning. I don't buy how you can be so sure of yourself with such a bad case. I feel like it's an act. And here's something else you accused him of while doing the same thing: Show nested quote +On June 05 2013 13:17 Oatsmaster wrote:
...defending mkfuba for basically no reason. Scum love to defend people cause it makes them look good. Show nested quote +On June 05 2013 21:33 Oatsmaster wrote:
Jay does his n1 mislynch NA in like every game.
Its not alignment indicative.
Its likely that the most active player day 1 isnt scum so lets not lynch WoS.
So does defending 2 players in the same post make you like twice as likely to be scum?
Like I was already voting for you yesterday. It's not like the cop thing is the only thing I'm considering
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 07 2013 23:48 Stutters695 wrote:
Absence isn't a scum tell on its own.
I think you have to treat continued absence as a scum tell, otherwise it establishes a policy that it's fine to disappear without consequence.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 06 2013 10:10 layabout wrote:
jarjar, vayne and sent look bad but i will go over all that stuff tomorrow
Do you still plan to go over jarjar and vayne or have you changed your mind?
Also, Vivax has been very forgettable, does anyone have a strong opinion on him?
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yea vivax has been .... surprisingly not very much out there definitely very suspicious could easily be scum
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prp:
OK PRP time.
Reading through his filter, I find that I read that its townie. Ok.
Prp is town.
Why?
Generally because he brought up Rayn as a lynch target earlier, and although he switched off of rayn, he explained it in a townlike way that was similar to what I thought.
Whoop.
Sent:
His vote on WoS with this explanation:
On June 05 2013 11:03 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:I had problems with his lurker policy lynching (goes against my best interests, I lurk with pride) as well as asking people whether his play was scummy or not. His reply was this: Show nested quote +Town motivation was literally asking questions of people to try and divine their alignment. Knowing how both JJD and Vayne played scum last game, I was curious if their answers towards my questions would help me figure out anything about the way they would be playing this game. If you choose to ignore this point then that's your prerogative. As far as new things brought, I brought plenty of new things to the table, including the suspicion and discussion towards me. Any discussion is good discussion on D1 even if the subject is somewhat misguided; it will allow people to get reads of me, with which I am fine. I consider my own townplay perfectly good and accomplishing exactly what I have set out to do, whilst being completely transparent in my thought processes in the meantime.
Basically he's saying that by accusing him it stirs up discussion. But why? If attention is on him, as town it's crappy play because it distracts others from finding scum, and as scum he can WIFOM his way to finding a different lynch target.
I don't think perfectly good townplay involves painting yourself red to see who comes out of the woodwork.
See, his first point about lurker lynching is totally null.
Second point which I bolded.
WoS is saying that through his play, he has drawn flak and votes and controversy, like accidentally or at the very least, not intentioonally. Sent is saying that WoS INTENTIONALLY does this. The thing is, the correct conclusion to draw from Sent's analysis, is that WoS is town. It makes zero sense for mafia to come out early day 1 and get a wagon started on himself, when its very possible that it continues to lynch. And even if it doesnt, you arent really in a strong position going into day 2 either.
So bad conclusions and bad vote. Like objectively bad. Sent is not bad.
And then he votes for me and NEVER EXPLAINS in the slightest. At all. In a time where I was drawing some fire for my Ace push. after that, Rayn looks like he is gonna die, oh no better switch votes without looking scummy, so he explains his non voting beforehand. Why does he need to explain that if he says later that he is 'sure' that Rayn is gonna flip scum? Why is he thinking about survival and not lynching scum?
Layabout:
First off, a vote for Jay cause he 'dislikes' his attitude, and not cause he thinks in any remote way that his attitude makes him scum. So scummy from the get go.
I don't see anybody that looks worse.
This quote is golden. You know who cares about appearances? Scum. Town dont, town wanna lynch scum. But could just be word choice, I personally dont think so.
On June 05 2013 21:04 layabout wrote:
Currently the most active player in this dead game is set to be lynched. This is not good. Not good at all.
This is the only thing he says about the WoS lynch, or the game at all outside Jay until rayn asks him. I dont think that rayn asking him a somewhat softball question which layabout responds with his longest post so far.
On June 05 2013 21:51 layabout wrote:Show nested quote +On June 05 2013 21:26 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Layabout you want to lynch jay for his attitude? Is there anything else? Do you think the most active player atm (WoS) cannot be mafia? The point is to lynch scum, not people you dont like.
What do you think of what i brought up against WoS?
Also what do you think about Ace/zeph atm? jay has gone from empty posts to omgus. That isn't how i would expect a town play to play, especially when the pressure jay was under was so low. He should not be so worried about 2 votes and the everyone that votes for me is scum argument is crappy. WaveOfShadow In every game i can recall the hypersupermegaactive players are always town, even in games where somebody like bh is scum and posts a ton the most active players are still town. If scum is the most active player in the thread and they aren't just spamming then then don't deserve to get lynched. Our problem right now is that the activity levels are too low, killing active players only makes this worse. And since the activity has been low since the start WoS is correct to be concerned about it so i see no harm in him say he might want to lynch a lurker. If there is anything scummy about it it's that he tentatively puts the idea forward possibly because he is worried about people jumping on him for LaL. Lynching Ace is okay since he hasn't done anything, but his posts have reflected my own feeling about the game and there are other who have also done nothing. He hasn't done anything to make me want to keep him alive but at the same time i see no reason to choose ace specifically. I think zephird's push is bad but it is not inherently scummy, his response to pressure was townlike and towards the beginning he was trying to get the thread moving in the right direction which was quite needed.
This post, Jay is the only one he wants to lynch right? But he doesnt seem intent to asking people to vote for him, or to get him lynched at all. It feels like jay is the convenient target that no one thinks layabout is suspicious for having. It does not feel like Layabout wants to get jay lynched.
BUTTTTTT
The current redeeming thing in his favor, is that he thinks Sent scumslipped and is pushing Sent hard.
If Sent flips town, I will look back at layabout.
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EPT
