EPTCarnival Cruise Mafia - Page 64
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
Just sayin. I'm going to work. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On May 17 2013 00:04 Promethelax wrote: I want to see this SnB/OO tiff play out. SnB, what do you think about the oats vote steal and what did occur if he is scum. I doubt a townie would use votesteal d1 since d1 wagons are a big part of how one analyses the game and taking away a vote from scum is awful. Both OO and SnB want more from Shiro, don't we all. SnB bringing up Chaoser is +1 in my book, where the hell is that guy? VE never followed up on me asking about him (though neither did I). VE, BH, prp and SnB (and maaaaybe hiro?)you guys have been around long enough to know Chaoser, I'd love some insight. okay so this is the first thing that makes me really wonder about oatsmaster being scum. Let me break it down for you guys: there are three possibilities here:
I consider the first of these options extremely unlikely; much less likely than either of the other two. First, votesteal is almost a useless power for townies; and it's very weird that someone would've used it D1. So let's say that oats's vote was stolen by scum; why didn't they use it to hammer OO? If he's town, it's free KP for them. Conclusion: he's scum. On the other hand, we have the case where oat's vote wasn't stolen by scum or town. Well, clearly his vote didn't count yesterday? If his vote wasn't stolen, then that would have to mean that his vote was canceled for some other reason. By far the most likely case where that happens is the case where he's scum - there's a clear scum motivation for having your vote not count. You can jump on your teammates' bandwagons all you want; you can ignore attacks on your voting record by just saying "oh my vote was stolen"; and it makes you look townie if you can persuade people that your vote was stolen by the scum team. So, I think we have a pretty good choice here. Between OO and Oats, I think we have a scum. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
And you left out the last (and least likely) option: oats is ????, OO is town. Scum wanted another day wasted on lynching OO since they have two night kills (pretty sure about this, Vivax shooting vayne makes sense) a no lynch into no discussion lynch of the player from day one s a benefit to them. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
If OO was town I don't see why a scum player wouldn't have hammmered him apart from literally not being able to do so. OO is scum. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On May 17 2013 03:20 strongandbig wrote: okay so this is the first thing that makes me really wonder about oatsmaster being scum. Let me break it down for you guys: there are three possibilities here:
I consider the first of these options extremely unlikely; much less likely than either of the other two. First, votesteal is almost a useless power for townies; and it's very weird that someone would've used it D1. So let's say that oats's vote was stolen by scum; why didn't they use it to hammer OO? If he's town, it's free KP for them. Conclusion: he's scum. On the other hand, we have the case where oat's vote wasn't stolen by scum or town. Well, clearly his vote didn't count yesterday? If his vote wasn't stolen, then that would have to mean that his vote was canceled for some other reason. By far the most likely case where that happens is the case where he's scum - there's a clear scum motivation for having your vote not count. You can jump on your teammates' bandwagons all you want; you can ignore attacks on your voting record by just saying "oh my vote was stolen"; and it makes you look townie if you can persuade people that your vote was stolen by the scum team. So, I think we have a pretty good choice here. Between OO and Oats, I think we have a scum. there's nothing about the politician that says they have to be mafia. it's entirely possible that they're town - i can think of at least two games that I've played in with a town politician. second, the deadline is at such a unusual time that even if the politician was mafia and obviousone was town, they simply might not have been around to move it from me to obvious. then there are some people in this game who seem to believe that it's better to lynch someone that's town than to have a no-lynch on d1, a mafia politician like that might even think it's a good idea to leave a town player alive. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On May 17 2013 03:25 Promethelax wrote: What do you you think a out VE? And you left out the last (and least likely) option: oats is ????, OO is town. Scum wanted another day wasted on lynching OO since they have two night kills (pretty sure about this, Vivax shooting vayne makes sense) a no lynch into no discussion lynch of the player from day one s a benefit to them. i can talk about ve for a minute but i have an essay to write. so here's the thing. i've seen ve play great games and i've seen him play terrible terrible games. so the "not living up to the rep" argument doesn't persuade me with him. that said, his push on vayne looks terrible. poorly reasoned at first, and then when he went into more words about it, it was still poorly reasoned. vayne at the time didn't really look much different from other lurkers, eg shirokami or prplhz or whoever, i'm not going back through to figure it out. but the thing is, there were a bunch of players who all had exactly one scum read, were sheeping to get that scum read, and didnt really do anything to push it. That's not the kind of stuff i would expect from VE. makes me really hesitant to say that i think he's town. on the other hand, i don't entirely see the comparison to your thing from that other game. or rather, i see it today out of ve, with the apology-for-not-reading post and the OO case which largely follows yours, but yesterday i see a different kind of bad play; the va case was atrocious, but unless i'm misremembering something it was original work out of ve. Plus there's the fact that he actually has been keeping up with the thread. I know you said your meta case wasn't based on activity, but that is a difference between that game and this game. At least his filter is decently longer than mine, and so far afaik no one's accused me of lurking or whatever. plus it kind of helps that i feel his (and your, from before) case on oo. it's pretty clear that his martyring was opportunistic rather than genuine. while i think we've all seen frustrated townies martyr, when does a townie martyr as a tactic? (aside: according to your ginormous list post, it looks like the reasons you think he's town are that he was making sense with some of his townreads and that he's been putting in more effort than you'd expect from him as scum. I can see where you're coming from but i don't see those points as super convincing, scum can always be good at townreads and for whatever reason oo appears to care enough about this game to tactically martyr, so i don't think putting in extra effort is out of the question for him.) Anyway, here's the conclusion to this ramble. I think there is plenty of reason to be suspicious of VE, and if he doesn't come back with anything better, I would probably rank him as someone I would be okay with killing. However, I don't think the meta-case you quoted is as slam-dunk as you think it is, because I don't think VE completely fits that pattern. More importantly, I think we have a really good shot at hitting scum between OO and Oats. I suppose you're right that scum might have kept OO alive to fuck with town for an extra day, but I find that pretty unlikely; from a scum perspective, I think a mislynch is pretty much always better than a no-lynch, it gives plenty of ammo for them to go after the townies who pushed the mislynch plus it's free extra KP. If the vote really was stolen, I find it pretty unlikely that scum would've decided to waste it unless OO is scum. And if the vote wasn't really stolen, we get back to my analysis from above. kk laters | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
Like I just read a post that made me think WoS could potentially be scum and I doubt my thought because it's been BH reaming him from the get-go. Since he isn't reading my posts someone please get him to discuss things that aren't OO and WoS. Those aren't even stances anymore, those are a given. I asked him about Hiro and he flatly pretended he never saw it. And VE is probably scum too lol he's playing from some theoretical OO is good at scum PoV and that just very demonstrably isn't the case when my play this game so far has been anything but good. My scum games are marked by going down quietly once things are rolling downhill in my direction. I gave a last hurrah in OUR GAME TOGETER IN HYDRA he should know this VE why are you being this bad you are not this bad let's kill VE. ##vote VE | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On May 17 2013 03:31 HiroPro wrote: there's nothing about the politician that says they have to be mafia. it's entirely possible that they're town - i can think of at least two games that I've played in with a town politician. second, the deadline is at such a unusual time that even if the politician was mafia and obviousone was town, they simply might not have been around to move it from me to obvious. then there are some people in this game who seem to believe that it's better to lynch someone that's town than to have a no-lynch on d1, a mafia politician like that might even think it's a good idea to leave a town player alive. okay this then essay (1) yes its possible that there is a town politician, its also unlikely. then, if the politician is town, its also unlikely that they would use their power on D1, since that pretty much only hurts town. two unlikely situations -> yes it's possible but i'm comfortable discounting it unless someone claims compulsive town politician or something. (2) if mafia had a stolen vote, i think it's pretty likely that at least one of them would have been around for deadline, or that they would've sent a conditional pm to ace, or something. possible, but much less likely than that either oo or oats is scum. (3) i talked about the mafia maybe wanting a no lynch thing above, i also think that's improbable. you have to remember, we already have compelling reasons for thinking either or both of oo/oats are scum, the votesteal thing is just the icing on the cake | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
On May 17 2013 03:57 Blazinghand wrote: no, i saw your post, i just have zero interest in talking to you, unlike WoS. I legit think you're more likely to be scum than WoS. Cool story bro Tell it again. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
Day 2 wagons With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch. ObviousOne[L-7]: Blazinghand, VisceraEyes WaveofShadow[L-6]: Oatsmaster, kushmasta, shirokami Oatsmaster[L-8]: WaveofShadow VisceraEyes[L-7]: Promethelax, ObviousOne Day 2 ends Saturday, May 18 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) if no majority is reached | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On May 17 2013 03:59 strongandbig wrote: okay this then essay (1) yes its possible that there is a town politician, its also unlikely. then, if the politician is town, its also unlikely that they would use their power on D1, since that pretty much only hurts town. two unlikely situations -> yes it's possible but i'm comfortable discounting it unless someone claims compulsive town politician or something. (2) if mafia had a stolen vote, i think it's pretty likely that at least one of them would have been around for deadline, or that they would've sent a conditional pm to ace, or something. possible, but much less likely than that either oo or oats is scum. (3) i talked about the mafia maybe wanting a no lynch thing above, i also think that's improbable. you have to remember, we already have compelling reasons for thinking either or both of oo/oats are scum, the votesteal thing is just the icing on the cake we'll see, but i'm not really convinced. also, ace would very likely not be ok with "(2)": First and foremost if you signed up for this game, there was a clear warning to read Death Factory Mafia 1. You know this is a real time game. As with every game of Mafia if you aren't around there is nothing to be done. Tough shit. The nature of this game doesn't change that as games with Day kills and Majority Lynch work the same way. There was also another issue I should mention. My name is not Ver. My name is not Incognito. I don't know what they did to allow Mafia players to send in PMs for their buddies and use their powers in other games. I don't give a shit. I'm Ace. I very rarely allow players to use INDIVIDUAL Scum Powers as a group. That's pretty ridiculous as in a real time game if any of the 5 Scum players are online they can just willy nilly screw shit up. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
I'm interested in everyone's opinion on these four players. Gogo. | ||
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grush57
Korea (South)2582 Posts
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
OO why mention you thought something I did was scummy without telling the thread what it is? Also what ARE your thoughts on Hiro currently? | ||
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grush57
Korea (South)2582 Posts
also starsenses are leading me on this one. I don't think anyone out of that list that prome has will even flip red, or maybe 1 out of WoS and OO, but not both. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
Why is Kush scum? If kush is scum who else is scum? | ||
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grush57
Korea (South)2582 Posts
Looking at kush's filter he hasn't posted much but I guess he said he would be inactive at first. Other than that he just sheeped the WoS case. Not necessarily a town or scum tell. hmm, not so sure he is scum now. But he hasn't done much. But a lot of people including me haven't. I have no idea about reads this game. I usually do my reads about who voted for who and how that lynch flipped. We're basically in d1 again which is the worst :'(. So we need to flip someone so I'll just sheep WoS or OO because I have no idea at this point. I think the only clue we have about scum other than that is who kept switching bandwagons to get a no lynch, which is best case possible for scum. | ||
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