EPTTL Mafia LXI - Page 83
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12972 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12972 Posts
 @Rayn with Sylencia's history of getting mislynched I'm gonna need more than that. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
I'd say you should look at BC, VE, and ShaioPi to make a lynch decision, if you can't find reasonable suspicion of someone else. Though if you think VE is town, we might want to lynch Palmar. Like, a lot. A lot, a lot. | ||
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Mr. Cheesecake
United States3756 Posts
I need all the wisdom. | ||
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Mr. Cheesecake
United States3756 Posts
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yamato77
11589 Posts
The explanation of night actions that we know of is complicated, given that we have 1 role block unaccounted for and 1 KP unaccounted for. I will discuss here the relevant possibilities of all of the combination of events that could have led to the situation we are at now and discuss the likelihood of each event. 1) Palmar is role blocked by town JK and shot, and Vivax is shot, while scum JK either goes unused or was used on a scum player who did not claim it. I feel like this is not very likely. Scum would want to jail offensively, because they have no chance of blocking town KP on themselves or on another town. If true, however, Palmar is confirmed town. 2) Vivax was double-stacked and jailed, and Palmar was jailed by town. Palmar's alignment is unknown, but scum deny town a ton of information, as we see. RB+KP combo is a common mafia tactic for this reason. The variation that semi-confirms Palmar would be if town JK protected Vivax and scum offensively jailed Palmar, and Vivax was still double stacked. That feels more unlikely than the former. 3) Scum double stacked Vivax, role blocked Palmar, and town JK'd offensively and hit mafia, but they didn't claim. I feel this is unlikely, because a role block claim on N1 is a soft town claim, and town JK should be defensive N1 because you can't stop KP. 4) Scum KP was on Vivax and an Vet or SK/SP, who didn't claim being hit, scum JK went unused/used on mafia or was double stacked on Palmar with town JK. Town vet has no reason not to claim, as scum already know from claims that they are vet and can die tonight. Claiming might actually help keep confirmed town alive. Third party are fucked for this rationale, but would have claimed vet with the shot, I believe. This seems unlikely, based on claims so far. So unless there are claims of shots taken or role blocks notified that have yet to be made, it is either 1 or 2, with 2 being more likely in my opinion. Combined with Palmar's somewhat disinterested play, and his insistence that VE is mafia throughout the game while consenting to some of town's wagons, this makes me believe he might be mafia. Perhaps this is the truth even if VE is mafia, as Palmar's "push" of him feels weak, and the VE lynch has been successfully resisted twice now. Regardless of VE's alignment, then, Palmar should be looked upon with some degree of suspicion. I'd consider lynching him today. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
In that case, ignore all of that. | ||
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Mr. Cheesecake
United States3756 Posts
On April 26 2013 00:12 yamato77 wrote: The reason I think Palmar might be mafia is delving a bit into WIFOM, but it's an interesting thought. The explanation of night actions that we know of is complicated, given that we have 1 role block unaccounted for and 1 KP unaccounted for. I will discuss here the relevant possibilities of all of the combination of events that could have led to the situation we are at now and discuss the likelihood of each event. 1) Palmar is role blocked by town JK and shot, and Vivax is shot, while scum JK either goes unused or was used on a scum player who did not claim it. I feel like this is not very likely. Scum would want to jail offensively, because they have no chance of blocking town KP on themselves or on another town. If true, however, Palmar is confirmed town. 2) Vivax was double-stacked and jailed, and Palmar was jailed by town. Palmar's alignment is unknown, but scum deny town a ton of information, as we see. RB+KP combo is a common mafia tactic for this reason. The variation that semi-confirms Palmar would be if town JK protected Vivax and scum offensively jailed Palmar, and Vivax was still double stacked. That feels more unlikely than the former. 3) Scum double stacked Vivax, role blocked Palmar, and town JK'd offensively and hit mafia, but they didn't claim. I feel this is unlikely, because a role block claim on N1 is a soft town claim, and town JK should be defensive N1 because you can't stop KP. 4) Scum KP was on Vivax and an Vet or SK/SP, who didn't claim being hit, scum JK went unused/used on mafia or was double stacked on Palmar with town JK. Town vet has no reason not to claim, as scum already know from claims that they are vet and can die tonight. Claiming might actually help keep confirmed town alive. Third party are fucked for this rationale, but would have claimed vet with the shot, I believe. This seems unlikely, based on claims so far. So unless there are claims of shots taken or role blocks notified that have yet to be made, it is either 1 or 2, with 2 being more likely in my opinion. Combined with Palmar's somewhat disinterested play, and his insistence that VE is mafia throughout the game while consenting to some of town's wagons, this makes me believe he might be mafia. Perhaps this is the truth even if VE is mafia, as Palmar's "push" of him feels weak, and the VE lynch has been successfully resisted twice now. Regardless of VE's alignment, then, Palmar should be looked upon with some degree of suspicion. I'd consider lynching him today. Problem is we don't even know if scum have a jailer. All of these scenarios make me sad, because I want Palmar to be town. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
Or Vivax was doublestacked, which feels unlikely. | ||
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Mr. Cheesecake
United States3756 Posts
On April 26 2013 00:20 yamato77 wrote: So I guess the simplest explanation for last night's actions is actually that there's only one JK, he's town, saved Palmar from 1 KP, and scum shot Vivax. Or Vivax was doublestacked, which feels unlikely. I guess so eh. I feel like BC is scummy. I have no idea why people think BM is town, however. | ||
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Mr. Cheesecake
United States3756 Posts
On April 26 2013 00:22 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: I guess so eh. I feel like BC is scummy. I have no idea why people think BM is town, however. I lied BM prolly town, I was just looking at the votecounts from D1. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
Was ShiaoPi's defense entirely that he's busy IRL? ...... Coffee first. Back in a bit to check my clarity read and another go through the last few pages. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On April 26 2013 00:22 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: I guess so eh. I feel like BC is scummy. I have no idea why people think BM is town, however. BM was pretty town yesterday. BC is very scummy, as I've been saying since D1. The possibility of double stack Vivax is somewhat likely, now that I keep thinking about it. He was basically confirmed town on everyone's lists. Scum could have reasonably thought he could be protected. But if that's true, last night's actions have almost no bearing on Palmar's alignment. So maybe it's better to just ignore them altogether, in which case, I still say Palmar is reasonably suspicious based on his relative lack of effort in pushing his lynches. | ||
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Mr. Cheesecake
United States3756 Posts
I want these people to die! ShaioPi BC Clarity Syl WoS Maybe Ace depending on who flips what | ||
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Mr. Cheesecake
United States3756 Posts
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
You town bro? | ||
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Mr. Cheesecake
United States3756 Posts
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
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yamato77
11589 Posts
Shaio is easy to mislynch, as evidenced by the suspicion on him in day 2 of British Empire 1, also an instant lynch where he was lurkish, and eventually replaced. The worst part of his filter is the hammer sequence, but even that could be explained by overly eager town who got caught up in the game emotionally. Clarity is always inactive, and him being fixated on Sharrant is not alignment indicative. His case is objectively something that scum like to do, but in the context of the game, I can see a town Clarity who had a late start feeling the need to get his thoughts about the game on the table, even if they weren't about the main lynch candidates. The fact that he basically has no other reads in the game is a point in his favor, but just like VE, we can afford to play a waiting game with him, seeing as we have unlimited time. At the very least, we need real discussion about the alignments of Ace/BC/Palmar before we move forward with any lynch. Ace is the most town out of the three, and BC the least, in my eyes. I'd say a long day is in order, and town need to consolidate pressure upon just a few people so that we can determine their alignments more clearly. | ||
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