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Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 18 2013 00:51 GMT
#1461
Corazon

whats ya time deadline for sno and zare to post before finding it stinky?
Corazon
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States3230 Posts
February 18 2013 00:55 GMT
#1462
By "stinky", do you mean pressuring them today for it?
Grubby's #1 Fan
Dandel Ion
Profile Joined November 2010
Austria17960 Posts
February 18 2013 00:59 GMT
#1463
Vot Coun:

Sylencia (2): Mocsta, warbaby
Mandalor (1): cDgCorazon
No-lynch (1): Sylencia

Not Voting: (4): Mandalor, zarepath, sn0man, Sevryn

Sylencia is currently set to be lynched!
~24 hours until deadline.

[image loading]
A backwards poet writes inverse.
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 18 2013 01:21 GMT
#1464
stinky meaning

how long are u willing to wait before starting to think their lack of activity is suspicious?
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 18 2013 01:30 GMT
#1465
I can handle 24hrs no comment. Because lets be fair. It was the weekend.

However i am going to need detailed feedback from them in say the next 12 to 16 hours...otherwise to me. Its suspicious the lack of contributoons given the severity of a mislynch.
Corazon
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States3230 Posts
February 18 2013 01:31 GMT
#1466
On February 18 2013 10:21 Mocsta wrote:
stinky meaning

how long are u willing to wait before starting to think their lack of activity is suspicious?


I already think it's suspicious. The reasonings for why they aren't talking would only invite a ton of WIFOM, but I would say it would hurt my read on Zare more than Sn0.

I almost made a case on Zare, and then I looked at his filter and there are only a couple of points I could've brought up. Not enough for a vote.

I have a solid town read on Sn0 because his play has been extremely pragmatic this game, and he has been helping out town immensely.

Do you think their lack of activity is worth revising our gameplan for D3?
Grubby's #1 Fan
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 18 2013 01:44 GMT
#1467
not yet. Dint want to start a burn the witch/heretic thing.

Just yeah its really odd sno and zare havent commented.

I agree though sno>>zare based in contributions.

As mentioned before. I think another 12hours is very reasonable to expect something meaningful. If no response i can only surmise scum is happy with how everything is proceeding.

That doesnt make the lurkers clear though. Im certain scum exists within the three lurkers.
Corazon
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States3230 Posts
February 18 2013 05:39 GMT
#1468
Grubby's #1 Fan
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 18 2013 05:58 GMT
#1469
This is starting to get absolutely fucking ridiculous.

Talk god dammit (other than corazon and maybe warbaby).

=========
[fluff] - Cos I am going nuts here with the lack of activity
1. Syvern
2. Sylencia
3. Mandalor
4. Sylencia
5. zarepath
6. Sylencia

RNG = 2... awesome, dont have to change me vote.
5
warbaby
Profile Joined May 2011
United States510 Posts
February 18 2013 06:59 GMT
#1470
Sn0_man said earlier that he might be too lazy to make reads this weekend, but he didn't really indicate that he'd be completely gone for 24h. I also want to complain again about the fact that he suggested a no-lynch before sylencia did.

Sylencia seems to have no idea how or when he should no-lynch appropriately, but I wonder where he got the idea from in the first place.

+ Show Spoiler [speculation] +

Unless I'm wrong, we're currently at MYLO. 5 dead players. 5-3 right now, 4-3 after a no-lynch leaves us at LYLO. I'm not interested in carrying the game into a LYLO situation if 5 of the players are making zero posts 30 odd hours into D2, and 3 of them have been lurking the whole game.

Unless we seriously think there are 2 scum, but I don't think this is likely.


+ Show Spoiler [fluff] +

how I feel about D3 so far...

It puts the GG in the basket. It does this whenever it's told or else it gets the Mutalisks again.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 18 2013 07:39 GMT
#1471
When we should no lynch properly?

It is clearly the right time to do it now. Call me scum for talking about setup speculation here but so far what we have is

1 Serial Killer
1 Mafia Roleblocker (only confirmed by me, take it as you wish)
2 Mafia / Mafia Roles
1 Tracker
4 Town
4 Town / Blue

Again, take this as you wish but I have already claimed I'm not blue. That puts it to 5 Vanilla and 3 Unknown. Due to what we have seen from the setup: Nosy Neighbour doesn't affect much, it's still essentially just a green role. No one else has claimed being Roleblocked. That pretty much rules out there being a Jailkeeper. A Vigilante would've killed me by now. That leaves there to be either a Watcher or a Veteran that are likely candidates to be the other blue role. If you no lynch with a Watcher in town, and assuming they were watching Test last night because it's the obvious thing to do, they can very well watch another night on a potential target, reveal who they saw the previous night during the final hour of tonight, and if they remain alive - they can potentially reveal another. With a veteran, we stay in the same 5:3 situation but with another confirmed town member, which still leaves us in pretty much the same situation as we are in now, but with a confirmed town giving out a vote for another day.
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 18 2013 07:41 GMT
#1472
Wow its like 3am for u and ur posting more than sylencia who is near my timezone. Its 3.40pm here....
Corazon
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States3230 Posts
February 18 2013 07:59 GMT
#1473
On February 18 2013 16:39 Sylencia wrote:
When we should no lynch properly?

It is clearly the right time to do it now. Call me scum for talking about setup speculation here but so far what we have is

1 Serial Killer
1 Mafia Roleblocker (only confirmed by me, take it as you wish)
2 Mafia / Mafia Roles
1 Tracker
4 Town
4 Town / Blue

Again, take this as you wish but I have already claimed I'm not blue. That puts it to 5 Vanilla and 3 Unknown. Due to what we have seen from the setup: Nosy Neighbour doesn't affect much, it's still essentially just a green role. No one else has claimed being Roleblocked. That pretty much rules out there being a Jailkeeper. A Vigilante would've killed me by now. That leaves there to be either a Watcher or a Veteran that are likely candidates to be the other blue role. If you no lynch with a Watcher in town, and assuming they were watching Test last night because it's the obvious thing to do, they can very well watch another night on a potential target, reveal who they saw the previous night during the final hour of tonight, and if they remain alive - they can potentially reveal another. With a veteran, we stay in the same 5:3 situation but with another confirmed town member, which still leaves us in pretty much the same situation as we are in now, but with a confirmed town giving out a vote for another day.


The problem with proposing the no-lynch right now is that we are far from not being able to make a decision. Voting no-lynch 24 hours before the deadline means that you want us to sit around and twiddle our thumbs and not force the lurkers to come out of hiding. We've already done that for the past 4 days, and I'm sick of it.

We've asked you to make a scumread besides WB, and all you've done is thrown your hands up and said "hey guys, I don't have any scum reads". It sounds really ridiculous. I'm done asking you to make another read. If you don't make a read within 12 hours on someone other than Sevryn and Mandalor, you're getting my vote. WB won't be acceptable.
Grubby's #1 Fan
warbaby
Profile Joined May 2011
United States510 Posts
February 18 2013 08:08 GMT
#1474
Voting no-lynch is giving up on trying to lynch a scum. The correct time to no-lynch is much closer to deadline, after you have concluded that you failed to hunt and catch a scum. The incorrect time to no-lynch is while you are failing to even try to find a scum, >24 hours from the D3 deadline, after lurking the whole game.
It puts the GG in the basket. It does this whenever it's told or else it gets the Mutalisks again.
Sn0_Man
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
Tebellong44238 Posts
February 18 2013 08:10 GMT
#1475
I only mentioned a no lynch because we COULD BE AT MYLO and if we keep voting like utter retards (see: first vote) then maybe a no-lynch is preferable. However, I don't think we are at no lynch stage yet. For example, I think I'll be voting Sylencia today, although I admit I haven't finished my "Filter dive"

This is my before-bed post don't expect answers for another indeterminately long period.
LiquidDota StaffSCIENTISTS BAFFLED | 3275929302
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 18 2013 08:19 GMT
#1476
On February 18 2013 16:39 Sylencia wrote:
When we should no lynch properly?

It is clearly the right time to do it now. Call me scum for talking about setup speculation here but so far what we have is

1 Serial Killer
1 Mafia Roleblocker (only confirmed by me, take it as you wish)
2 Mafia / Mafia Roles
1 Tracker
4 Town
4 Town / Blue

Again, take this as you wish but I have already claimed I'm not blue. That puts it to 5 Vanilla and 3 Unknown.

That doesnt make sense.. we have had 3 VTs flip; 1 SK and 1 blue.
*IF* you flipped VT; would that not leave 4 vanilla flipped... you wrote 5 above... i dont think it was a typo as you adjusted unknown to 3.
If you going to setup speculate.. why are you inserting erroneous statements such as the above? Quite misleading if you ask me.


Due to what we have seen from the setup: Nosy Neighbour doesn't affect much, it's still essentially just a green role. No one else has claimed being Roleblocked. That pretty much rules out there being a Jailkeeper. A Vigilante would've killed me by now. That leaves there to be either a Watcher or a Veteran that are likely candidates to be the other blue role. If you no lynch with a Watcher in town, and assuming they were watching Test last night because it's the obvious thing to do, they can very well watch another night on a potential target, reveal who they saw the previous night during the final hour of tonight, and if they remain alive - they can potentially reveal another. With a veteran, we stay in the same 5:3 situation but with another confirmed town member, which still leaves us in pretty much the same situation as we are in now, but with a confirmed town giving out a vote for another day.
Blah blah blah; its all WIFOM and presents a lot of "What-ifs" and no conclusion based on what we know.


As an aside: to all
I fuckn hope somebody "watched" testsubject last night, but so far, no one has stepped up.

The problem is.. if somebody stepped up now and said they are the watcher, and wanted to "judge reactions" I would have thought its too late to automatically believe.
When TestSubject caught OO, he presented it within an hour.

If we believe the "watcher" and it leads to a mislynch, and then scum NK; we are pretty much fucked.



Setup speculation
The only reason I can think of the "watching" outcome being held is if.. multiple parties visited TestSubject....(i.e. killer + ?nosy neighbour? or whatever else) This is really grasping at straws though; and I prefer to work with what I know = scum hunt.
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 18 2013 08:22 GMT
#1477
On February 18 2013 17:10 Sn0_Man wrote:
I only mentioned a no lynch because we COULD BE AT MYLO and if we keep voting like utter retards (see: first vote) then maybe a no-lynch is preferable. However, I don't think we are at no lynch stage yet. For example, I think I'll be voting Sylencia today, although I admit I haven't finished my "Filter dive"

This is my before-bed post don't expect answers for another indeterminately long period.

Thats for making an appearance; I hope your vote is submitted at least a few hours before the deadline - preferably more.

I think it is essential for votes to be transparent; and void of confusion. I think this will prevent mafia making a play to affect votes.
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 18 2013 12:13 GMT
#1478
I like how Sylencia's big "I'm contributing!" post is all theory and setup speculation.

Still filter diving, but I'm inclined to go for Mandalor right now. Although he did say he was going to be busy this whole time.

Not that I'm one to talk... As Cora pointed out, Sundays are my busiest days. Sorry for not mentioning that myself.

I should be back for the day. Catching up, filter reading, etc.

I like the discussion so far.

"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 18 2013 12:18 GMT
#1479
On February 18 2013 21:13 zarepath wrote:
I like the discussion so far.

Can you point out what you like? its been pretty frustrating for me....
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 18 2013 13:30 GMT
#1480
On February 18 2013 21:13 zarepath wrote:
I like how Sylencia's big "I'm contributing!" post is all theory and setup speculation.

Still filter diving, but I'm inclined to go for Mandalor right now. Although he did say he was going to be busy this whole time.

Not that I'm one to talk... As Cora pointed out, Sundays are my busiest days. Sorry for not mentioning that myself.

I should be back for the day. Catching up, filter reading, etc.

I like the discussion so far.



Voting Mandalor is pointless, he's afk and his filter says less than what anyone else has, the chance you mislynch from a vote from Mandalor is a lot higher than anyone else.

--

On February 13 2013 14:23 Sevryn wrote:
So I'm back from work and wow has a lot happened I dont understand why glurio played like he did. That is why I tunneled him because his case was absolutely terrible. We also needed another topic besides warbaby so I pushed glurio as a good alternate topic. Glurio admitted his case was terrible which just doesnt make sense why would town make a terrible case without breadcrumbs like I said earlier its just distracting and doesnt help town. as this lynch proved.

The only reason you think im scum is because you think a lurker is scum and while I know I havn't been very active which I will be fixing over the next days I have to ask. Why just me and glurio? your just looking at whats blaring in your face and not the whole picture. I had the confidence to share my read and kill glurios case why would scum do that? You talk about when during the day I posted my case like people normally post cases early day one when there is nothing to read which is kind of irrelavant because I posted my case after I read and reread his case.

I'm going to bed now but Will be up tomorrow and will be ready to provide my opinions and takes on yesterdays last minute activity and the night that fight.


1) Makes a point about how we're looking at warbaby too much, but then proceeds to tunnelling glurio and brushes it off like he was the victim of bad play.
2) Says he'd be more active, but reaches a level slightly above mine in terms of activity. The lack of hard scum hunting hasn't required him to speak up since Night 1.


On February 14 2013 03:06 Sevryn wrote:
Is 9bit being replaced?


As important as it is to know, asking if the 2nd afk player is going to be replaced could be a sign of potential night kill targets. This is pretty weak though.

On February 14 2013 11:21 Sevryn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 14 2013 11:17 TestSubject893 wrote:
I was getting ready to write up a post about my thoughts on everyone so far, but when I got the results of the night actions I realized that that post would probably be overshadowed when I posted this, so I scrapped it for now.




I am the Tracker. As we know from the rules, the mafia chooses who will carry out each kill. From this we can conclude that the mafia will choose the player they percieve to be least suspicious on their team to carry out the kill. In an attempt to catch a potential least suspicous scum player, last night I tracked ObviousOne. The results were that he visisted WaveofShadow.

This means that one of the following is true:
(A) ObviousOne is a Vigilante, Jailkeeper or Watcher who targeted WaveofShadow.
(B) The framer chose to frame ObviousOne for the WaveofShadow kill.
(C) ObviousOne is the Nosy Neighbour and the RNG hit the 2/11 chance that he'd visit someone who was killed.
(D) ObviousOne is scum or serial killer and killed WaveofShadow.

A is unlikely for the following reasons. ObviousOne said himself that a Vigilante should have checked in ahead of time, making it unlikely that that is his role + Show Spoiler +
On February 14 2013 10:23 ObviousOne wrote:
Still have some time for a possible Vig to check in. I'm surprised there wasn't a claim given there was an hour window during which night actions were being put through, but that might just mean they're not able to respond yet. Going to have to assume SK if there isn't a claim in the next 24 hours.
. We know that he is not the Jailkeeper, because the Jailkeeper visisted Sylencia tonight. And its unlikely that he is a Watcher, not only because we already have a Tracker, and therefore it is less likely that we have a Watcher, but also because if he watched WaveofShadow he would have said something about who visited the person who was killed.

B is unlikely becuase there is little reason for the mafia to think that ObviousOne will get tracked.

C is unlikely mathematically. (Even if there is a 10% chance that OO is the Nosy Neighbour, a very high estimate, that means that there is a less than 2% likelihood of this occuring.)

From this I conclude that ObviousOne is the serial killer or scum and killed WaveofShadow.

##Vote: ObviousOne

your assuming that there isnt a scum RB and a town JK


Either he's subtly suggesting he got roleblocked here, or the point is completely irrelevant to the argument. I can understand if he was saying "You're assuming there isn't RB instead of JK" but where does this point about scum RB and JK come from, especially reading TU's post - it comes out of nowhere. This again, doesn't really reveal anything about his alignment, but it's an odd statement.

On February 16 2013 13:34 Sevryn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 12 2013 08:55 Sylencia wrote:
Currently at work - I can answer questions and make shallow comments about posts but I can't go too indepth with analysis at the moment (though this part has never really been a strong point of mine in these games)


Lowering expectations of how good they will be at scumhunting
and then the 5 posts on D1 about blue claims and the like which really only helps scum on D1
Show nested quote +
On February 13 2013 09:21 Sylencia wrote:
On February 13 2013 08:52 Mocsta wrote:
Sylencia
I just checked your filter

and noticed your recent posts are defensive (perhaps due to pressure you)

What I need from you to determine alignment is not a defense; but to see you scum hunt.

I could not find a vote in your filter.Please indicate who your top scum read, and dot point why.


I've only checked a few filters unfortunately (bad play by me) but from those I've checked I'm going to still stick with my suspicion on Warbaby. I've tunneled on him a little bit too much though...




another post admitting to being a bad player and altogether undermining thier own stance on things which is a great tactic if later your going to have to go back on your reads. real easy to go "I told you guys I was bad at scum hunting"
looking through the whole filter I just see a lot of answering direct questions and no real cases.


On February 14 2013 03:04 Sevryn wrote:
Sylencia - null


I can be made to look fairly scummy from those 2 points alone (this then heightens to the point where I'm now his top read) - but if he's made a point about it on the 16th, what changed between 14th and then?

On February 16 2013 13:59 Sevryn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2013 13:54 Sylencia wrote:
Sorry guys, wasn't around last night.

Corazon: I'm still sure that Warbaby is scum, potential slip during day 2, one of the weirdest statements I've read during day 1, and he's now also claimed I've fake roleblock claimed. Remember when you were scum and you managed to slip under the radar for another 3 days while we flailed around until the other scum kind of screwed up your plans? This is something I don't want to let happen again.

Sevryn: It's not like I'm even talking about my level of scumhunting wihtout backup - you can check my filters for the other 3 games I've been in. How many cases have I truly brought up? Not too many. You guys all mention how I talk about the potential blue claim for quite a while on Day 1 - I didn't even say it's likely he's blue unless it's a Vig.

talking about it at all isnt really something thats good for down it can only help scum on Day 1


Ignores the point I continuously make - I didn't talk about the potential claim because I thought he was blue, I did it because there was a higher chance he was scum.

On February 17 2013 14:27 Sevryn wrote:
I was asked why I am less scummy than the "other" two lurkers/
how about your reads? who do you think the scum team is? you think its all lurkers?


On February 17 2013 14:48 Sevryn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2013 14:30 cDgCorazon wrote:
Once again...

On February 16 2013 15:03 cDgCorazon wrote:
@Sevryn: Can you bring anything new to the table in the argument against me? If so, I'd love to hear it.


If you think I'm scum, make the case. Find points that make me look scummy that haven't been talked about already. Contribute to the scum hunt.

I will throw that right back at you you never give examples you say that I am full of broken promises. like what?
show me why im scummy dont just say YOUR SO SCUMMY PROVE YOUR NOT.
im going to try to get who I think is most likely scum lynched today what you do is your own choice but I would try to find scum by making a really case.
but as to scum hunting let me ask you a question.
Why do you think im more scummy than scy have you looked at his filter?


Many times he was asked why he isn't scummy, but rather than answering why he isn't scummy he either flips it (like here), or he tries to make a point that one of the other lurkers (Mandalor and I) are more scummy. Us being potentially more scummy based on his points doesn't clear him of being scum.

Last two posts involve a case against me, but then no real follow up when scrutinised about the quality of the post, and how it looked more summary-type post than scum post.

Since then, the heat has been back onto me, and Sevryn has been afk ever since.
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