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On February 18 2013 21:13 zarepath wrote:
I like how Sylencia's big "I'm contributing!" post is all theory and setup speculation.
Still filter diving, but I'm inclined to go for Mandalor right now. Although he did say he was going to be busy this whole time.
Not that I'm one to talk... As Cora pointed out, Sundays are my busiest days. Sorry for not mentioning that myself.
I should be back for the day. Catching up, filter reading, etc.
I like the discussion so far.
Voting Mandalor is pointless, he's afk and his filter says less than what anyone else has, the chance you mislynch from a vote from Mandalor is a lot higher than anyone else.
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On February 13 2013 14:23 Sevryn wrote:
So I'm back from work and wow has a lot happened I dont understand why glurio played like he did. That is why I tunneled him because his case was absolutely terrible. We also needed another topic besides warbaby so I pushed glurio as a good alternate topic. Glurio admitted his case was terrible which just doesnt make sense why would town make a terrible case without breadcrumbs like I said earlier its just distracting and doesnt help town. as this lynch proved.
The only reason you think im scum is because you think a lurker is scum and while I know I havn't been very active which I will be fixing over the next days I have to ask. Why just me and glurio? your just looking at whats blaring in your face and not the whole picture. I had the confidence to share my read and kill glurios case why would scum do that? You talk about when during the day I posted my case like people normally post cases early day one when there is nothing to read which is kind of irrelavant because I posted my case after I read and reread his case.
I'm going to bed now but Will be up tomorrow and will be ready to provide my opinions and takes on yesterdays last minute activity and the night that fight.
1) Makes a point about how we're looking at warbaby too much, but then proceeds to tunnelling glurio and brushes it off like he was the victim of bad play.
2) Says he'd be more active, but reaches a level slightly above mine in terms of activity. The lack of hard scum hunting hasn't required him to speak up since Night 1.
On February 14 2013 03:06 Sevryn wrote:
Is 9bit being replaced?
As important as it is to know, asking if the 2nd afk player is going to be replaced could be a sign of potential night kill targets. This is pretty weak though.
On February 14 2013 11:21 Sevryn wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2013 11:17 TestSubject893 wrote:I was getting ready to write up a post about my thoughts on everyone so far, but when I got the results of the night actions I realized that that post would probably be overshadowed when I posted this, so I scrapped it for now.
I am the Tracker. As we know from the rules, the mafia chooses who will carry out each kill. From this we can conclude that the mafia will choose the player they percieve to be least suspicious on their team to carry out the kill. In an attempt to catch a potential least suspicous scum player, last night I tracked ObviousOne. The results were that he visisted WaveofShadow.This means that one of the following is true: (A) ObviousOne is a Vigilante, Jailkeeper or Watcher who targeted WaveofShadow. (B) The framer chose to frame ObviousOne for the WaveofShadow kill. (C) ObviousOne is the Nosy Neighbour and the RNG hit the 2/11 chance that he'd visit someone who was killed. (D) ObviousOne is scum or serial killer and killed WaveofShadow. A is unlikely for the following reasons. ObviousOne said himself that a Vigilante should have checked in ahead of time, making it unlikely that that is his role + Show Spoiler +On February 14 2013 10:23 ObviousOne wrote:
Still have some time for a possible Vig to check in. I'm surprised there wasn't a claim given there was an hour window during which night actions were being put through, but that might just mean they're not able to respond yet. Going to have to assume SK if there isn't a claim in the next 24 hours.
. We know that he is not the Jailkeeper, because the Jailkeeper visisted Sylencia tonight. And its unlikely that he is a Watcher, not only because we already have a Tracker, and therefore it is less likely that we have a Watcher, but also because if he watched WaveofShadow he would have said something about who visited the person who was killed. B is unlikely becuase there is little reason for the mafia to think that ObviousOne will get tracked. C is unlikely mathematically. (Even if there is a 10% chance that OO is the Nosy Neighbour, a very high estimate, that means that there is a less than 2% likelihood of this occuring.) From this I conclude that ObviousOne is the serial killer or scum and killed WaveofShadow.##Vote: ObviousOne your assuming that there isnt a scum RB and a town JK
Either he's subtly suggesting he got roleblocked here, or the point is completely irrelevant to the argument. I can understand if he was saying "You're assuming there isn't RB instead of JK" but where does this point about scum RB and JK come from, especially reading TU's post - it comes out of nowhere. This again, doesn't really reveal anything about his alignment, but it's an odd statement.
On February 16 2013 13:34 Sevryn wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2013 08:55 Sylencia wrote:
Currently at work - I can answer questions and make shallow comments about posts but I can't go too indepth with analysis at the moment (though this part has never really been a strong point of mine in these games)
Lowering expectations of how good they will be at scumhunting and then the 5 posts on D1 about blue claims and the like which really only helps scum on D1 Show nested quote +On February 13 2013 09:21 Sylencia wrote:On February 13 2013 08:52 Mocsta wrote:
Sylencia
I just checked your filter
and noticed your recent posts are defensive (perhaps due to pressure you)
What I need from you to determine alignment is not a defense; but to see you scum hunt.
I could not find a vote in your filter.Please indicate who your top scum read, and dot point why. I've only checked a few filters unfortunately (bad play by me) but from those I've checked I'm going to still stick with my suspicion on Warbaby. I've tunneled on him a little bit too much though... another post admitting to being a bad player and altogether undermining thier own stance on things which is a great tactic if later your going to have to go back on your reads. real easy to go "I told you guys I was bad at scum hunting" looking through the whole filter I just see a lot of answering direct questions and no real cases.
On February 14 2013 03:04 Sevryn wrote:
Sylencia - null
I can be made to look fairly scummy from those 2 points alone (this then heightens to the point where I'm now his top read) - but if he's made a point about it on the 16th, what changed between 14th and then?
On February 16 2013 13:59 Sevryn wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2013 13:54 Sylencia wrote:
Sorry guys, wasn't around last night.
Corazon: I'm still sure that Warbaby is scum, potential slip during day 2, one of the weirdest statements I've read during day 1, and he's now also claimed I've fake roleblock claimed. Remember when you were scum and you managed to slip under the radar for another 3 days while we flailed around until the other scum kind of screwed up your plans? This is something I don't want to let happen again.
Sevryn: It's not like I'm even talking about my level of scumhunting wihtout backup - you can check my filters for the other 3 games I've been in. How many cases have I truly brought up? Not too many. You guys all mention how I talk about the potential blue claim for quite a while on Day 1 - I didn't even say it's likely he's blue unless it's a Vig.
talking about it at all isnt really something thats good for down it can only help scum on Day 1
Ignores the point I continuously make - I didn't talk about the potential claim because I thought he was blue, I did it because there was a higher chance he was scum.
On February 17 2013 14:27 Sevryn wrote:
I was asked why I am less scummy than the "other" two lurkers/
how about your reads? who do you think the scum team is? you think its all lurkers?
On February 17 2013 14:48 Sevryn wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2013 14:30 cDgCorazon wrote:Once again... On February 16 2013 15:03 cDgCorazon wrote:
@Sevryn: Can you bring anything new to the table in the argument against me? If so, I'd love to hear it. If you think I'm scum, make the case. Find points that make me look scummy that haven't been talked about already. Contribute to the scum hunt. I will throw that right back at you you never give examples you say that I am full of broken promises. like what? show me why im scummy dont just say YOUR SO SCUMMY PROVE YOUR NOT. im going to try to get who I think is most likely scum lynched today what you do is your own choice but I would try to find scum by making a really case. but as to scum hunting let me ask you a question. Why do you think im more scummy than scy have you looked at his filter?
Many times he was asked why he isn't scummy, but rather than answering why he isn't scummy he either flips it (like here), or he tries to make a point that one of the other lurkers (Mandalor and I) are more scummy. Us being potentially more scummy based on his points doesn't clear him of being scum.
Last two posts involve a case against me, but then no real follow up when scrutinised about the quality of the post, and how it looked more summary-type post than scum post.
Since then, the heat has been back onto me, and Sevryn has been afk ever since.
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On February 18 2013 17:19 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2013 16:39 Sylencia wrote:
When we should no lynch properly?
It is clearly the right time to do it now. Call me scum for talking about setup speculation here but so far what we have is
1 Serial Killer
1 Mafia Roleblocker (only confirmed by me, take it as you wish)
2 Mafia / Mafia Roles
1 Tracker
4 Town
4 Town / Blue
Again, take this as you wish but I have already claimed I'm not blue. That puts it to 5 Vanilla and 3 Unknown. That doesnt make sense.. we have had 3 VTs flip; 1 SK and 1 blue. *IF* you flipped VT; would that not leave 4 vanilla flipped... you wrote 5 above... i dont think it was a typo as you adjusted unknown to 3. If you going to setup speculate.. why are you inserting erroneous statements such as the above? Quite misleading if you ask me. Show nested quote +
Due to what we have seen from the setup: Nosy Neighbour doesn't affect much, it's still essentially just a green role. No one else has claimed being Roleblocked. That pretty much rules out there being a Jailkeeper. A Vigilante would've killed me by now. That leaves there to be either a Watcher or a Veteran that are likely candidates to be the other blue role. If you no lynch with a Watcher in town, and assuming they were watching Test last night because it's the obvious thing to do, they can very well watch another night on a potential target, reveal who they saw the previous night during the final hour of tonight, and if they remain alive - they can potentially reveal another. With a veteran, we stay in the same 5:3 situation but with another confirmed town member, which still leaves us in pretty much the same situation as we are in now, but with a confirmed town giving out a vote for another day.
Blah blah blah; its all WIFOM and presents a lot of "What-ifs" and no conclusion based on what we know.
As an aside: to allI fuckn hope somebody "watched" testsubject last night, but so far, no one has stepped up. The problem is.. if somebody stepped up now and said they are the watcher, and wanted to "judge reactions" I would have thought its too late to automatically believe. When TestSubject caught OO, he presented it within an hour. If we believe the "watcher" and it leads to a mislynch, and then scum NK; we are pretty much fucked.
Setup speculationThe only reason I can think of the "watching" outcome being held is if.. multiple parties visited TestSubject....(i.e. killer + ?nosy neighbour? or whatever else) This is really grasping at straws though; and I prefer to work with what I know = scum hunt.
Bleh, you're correct on that point, somehow counted TU as tracker and town.
Also, as for my double roleblock claim, why is it that only Mocsta, Sevryn and Warbaby have commented about it (all three have chosen to say I'm lying here too), and everyone else has chosen to somewhat ignore it altogether?
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On February 18 2013 22:42 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2013 22:40 Sylencia wrote:
Also, as for my double roleblock claim, why is it that only Mocsta, Sevryn and Warbaby have commented about it (all three have chosen to say I'm lying here too), and everyone else has chosen to somewhat ignore it altogether? Because we are the only three commenting in general.. perhaps?
Corazon? I guess Zare is still reading up, don't know if sn0's catching up right now, and Mandalor has disappeared. Fair call I guess.
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On February 18 2013 22:48 Mocsta wrote:Firstly, Thanks for taking the time to review the filter. I dunno how corazon will feel about this Sevryn case considering: Show nested quote +On February 18 2013 16:59 cDgCorazon wrote:
If you don't make a read within 12 hours on someone other than Sevryn and Mandalor, you're getting my vote. WB won't be acceptable. I will give my 2c anyways. The one point you raised I agree with: Sevyrn doesn't answer direct questions, he 'flips' them backI agree, this is a scummy thing to do; but by itself is not scummy. I dont think the other behaviours you identified are scummy; rather... I think most of the points raised are OMGUS, or taking the least possible scenario as the basis for being scum. e.g. "Sevryn pointed out scum RB.. because I only mentioned town JK"If anything, he picked up on an erroneous comment from you and brought it to the fore. i.e.the logic you were sprouting does not assume a scum RB exists... considering you have been 'roleblocked twice' this is indeed convenient. - and something I did not pick up on till you quoted his post now...
Essentially most of my reads come from players within any player I've been banned from talking about, I'm kind of shut out of doing anything there.
In regards to what you've posted in the second statement, I didn't post that, that was TestUser? Or are you suggesting that I'm a scum roleblocker now, and that I've been jailkept twice? It would potentially hold up if TestUser didn't die last night.
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On February 18 2013 23:02 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2013 22:52 Sylencia wrote:
Essentially most of my reads come from players within any player I've been banned from talking about, I'm kind of shut out of doing anything there. I don't see how personally. Lets take your theory; that there is 3 scum. Three lurkers = Mandalor, Sevryn and yourself. Town thinks scum lies in the lurkers. You think you are not scum. Henceforth; at least one scum resides in the non-lurkers. I believe the intention of corazon post, was to figure out who that "at least one" scum was. Now... that I have to spell this out to you, is a concern....
The three voting for me are the three scum players anyways, which essentially means whatever I say to you doesn't matter. Since the beginning of today it's been very clear that you three can push a single agenda and with so many people afk it's not hard to target someone who hasn't been making strong cases or defenses all game. I do congratulate you on the move though, because it was well executed and the double roleblock was a nice touch. I can't use that information to even make a proper post to go against you because it's literally filled with information which only I know, so it holds zero weight to anyone.
Now, I would suggest we could lynch Sevryn here, and I'd be willing to do it, but because my word is not to be trusted at this point no lynch is literally the only way we can stay alive, since it's almost guaranteed that we are in MYLO (if we're not hey, one of my guesses is wrong) but that is up to the rest of the players to decide at this point in time. To those who are not scum, there's a lot more benefit in not lynching now than following the wagon. Unless you're 100% certain I'm scum, which I honestly hope you're not since that would mean I have played the most horrible game yet, the best option here is to no lynch. (At the same time, Mandalor is completely gone and unless he comes back sometime before tomorrow, the town has already lost unless he is a Temil in which he is modkilled as scum :\)
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On February 18 2013 23:42 Sevryn wrote:
Sylencia
here are my thoughts after reading his filter
Sylencia starts off by posting the chances of hitting town with RNG lynch making it clear he is not going to scumhunt and instead getting ezpz town cred.
States the obvious with warbabys claim that we all knew. talked definitivly with "when he doesnt die on night 1" which leads me to think he had knowledge of the kill target. than he continues with more talk of warbaby with some setup speculation thrown in there. where is the scum hunting? these are just empty posts that he doesn't take anywhere.
All of his pressure on Warbaby is summaries of his play no questioning his motives with OMGUS posts which is just classic scum play.
Of course town will survival vote but it is much better to play more town oriented and not have to rely on it. because hey(scum will survival vote as well)
He automatically decides its a scum RB. how does he know the JK doesnt exist while the RB does? he also points out a frame possibility which seems kind of odd if I was RB I wouldn't think "ohh this is me being frameda obviously" first. why is he ready to speculate about things he couldn't possibly know as town?
All game he tunnels warbaby(while applying very weak pressure) with a foundation of a scum slip which is a really weak case that gets dismissed which is perfect for scum to look like they are contributing.
makes a big post about the RB person to step up right before saying he got blocked a sec afterwards. and then we are right back to the being framed thing.
so basically sylencia has no real contributions.
He has had a game of weak tunneling on warbaby with no real pressure
and the rest is setup/role speculation with no outcome or saying he has been roleblocked and framed to be scum.
You can have problems with my play but I have tried to be heard when my posts are getting ignored. you attack me because I put what I think outthere and you dont like my opinion.
with syl he is just blending in.
its probably LYLO and he isn't doing anything to help town.
We need to lynch this scum
##vote sylencia
1) Explaining how RNG is not beneficial does not give town cred, it's a completely neutral observation which anyone can and would've made.
2) Remember I was already being looked at as being suspicious. If I was scum, there's no way I'd be given the order to shoot. Jailkeeper, assuming decent deduction ability, would have a lot more options other than myself as to who to block. Knowing that I'm probably not taking the shot, there's a higher chance that they should protect the one they want not to die.
Also, how is it ever LYLO with 8 players alive? 5:3, 6:2 are the only combinations that are possible/legitimate possibilities. Are you trying to turn the MYLO situation into a LYLO situation so that people panic and decide they need to vote? Nice try.
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On February 19 2013 01:30 cDgCorazon wrote:
God I am so fucking frustrated right now.
All I've asked you two to do was make a case ON SOMEONE WHO IS NOT LURKING. HOW FUCKING HARD IS THAT?
You two sit here and pretend like my comments don't exist, my arguments don't exist, like everything I say goes over your head and that you don't even care that I'm asking you to contribute a simple thing to the town.
I can't wait to vote you two off so we can actually get to playing mafia and stop with this bullshit.
##Unvote
##Vote: Sylencia
SEVRYN, YOU ARE NEXT
There is no next if Mandalor dies as well.
On February 19 2013 06:11 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2013 00:46 Sylencia wrote:
The three voting for me are the three scum players anyways, which essentially means whatever I say to you doesn't matter. This feels so scummy to me, in addition to his No-Lynch. He is terrified of targeting or going after anyone in particular, and has spent most of his energy defending himself. ##Vote: SylenciaP.S. - To all who have raised their concerns about my activity the last few days -- sorry, I've been spending time with family today since I have the day off. I know this isn't ideal and that my final contribution looks really haphazard, but that's because I just haven't put in the time to do a more thorough read. Sorry, all.
Terrified of targetting anyone - I've already mentioned I'm happy to kill Sevryn, but you guys don't seem to get it. Especially with Mandalor getting potentially modkilled at this point in time, and with him having a very high chance of being town, you would rather not have a (potentially) final night phase where at least there's a chance the Veteran may get shot, and live? (It's to the point where you know that's the second blue role) You guys honestly just want to lose outright at this stage? Fine.
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gg guys, work completely distracted me from writing a final post  !
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EPT
