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Two millers are usually not possible, and you have one miller when you have exactly one M or exactly 3 Ms in the setup.
So, let's compute the probability to have exactly one M in the 7 letters defining the setup.
M has a probability of 1/10 to be rolled.
Let's have X for any letter not being M, and X has a probability of 9/10 to be rolled.
MXXXXXX
XMXXXXX
XXMXXXX
XXXMXXX Here you have all the setups with exactly one mason, each of them with a probability of (9/10)^6*(1/10)
XXXXMXX
XXXXXMX
XXXXXXM
There are 7 such setups like this. The final probability to have exactly one M is 7*(9/10)^6*(1/10)=0.3720087
The probability is so roughly of 37%
So then you should add the probability to have exactly 3 Ms in the 7 letters defining the setup.
You have (7*6*5)/(3*2) arrangements of 3 Ms into the 7 letters, that is 35 arrangements. Each arrangement has a probability of (9/10)^4*(1/10)^3
so the probability to have exactly 3 Ms is roughly of 2.3% ??
That should make a ~39.5% probability to have a miller in the classic C9++ setup I guess.
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Your wrong 
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On January 24 2013 02:11 Dandel Ion wrote:
But it should be impossible to get 2 millers, right?
You can at least only ever get 1 IC afair.
Also when I (badly) mathed it, I got the (probably wrong) result of a 37.7% chance of getting a miller out of it.
NOT THAT IT MATTERS
You can have two millers, it's just incredibly improbable, and I guess that the host rolls the setup again in that case 
You have then MMMMXXX or anything looking alike.
How did you get 37.7% ?
It's close to what I have but not exactly the same. I'm confused now.
Shit, I even think I got 37.7% when I computed it in Mario Mini...
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On January 24 2013 02:17 Mocsta wrote:Your wrong
Wrong because
setup speculation is scum talk Djo (you know that personally!!)
and mason is a town role
!!!
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On January 24 2013 02:17 Mocsta wrote:Your wrong
Seriously ?
Don't troll me, I take this kind of things seriously, and I need to go to bed soon, I don't want to think that I could have made a mistake here.
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On January 24 2013 02:18 Mocsta wrote:Wrong because setup speculation is scum talk Djo (you know that personally!!) and mason is a town role !!!
You know, I was actually solving the game for them at that time ^^
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If only I could have that type of wit in a live game 
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On January 24 2013 02:20 Mocsta wrote:If only I could have that type of wit in a live game
I think you should just follow my advice concerning self-aware masons in C9++ games
Then you'll be fine. Maybe you could check this page (clicky) to have an idea of how many blue roles are expected to be in the game given the mafia flips ^^
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It's 37.7 because roughly 37% come from the single M, and a ~0.7% for the triple M. Can't remember exact values.
ICs happen with XXXXXXM and XXXXMMM setups, no others. There can only be one IC.
So unless there's a secret TL way of rolling c9 I'm not aware of, it should be impossible to roll two millers (ics)
afaik, afaik.
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Not as far as I know. In all the C9++'s I've rolled, MXXXXXXX == XMXXXXX, etc. So, if you roll an odd number of M's, you get an IC/miller. Even number, you get mason pair(s).
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On January 24 2013 02:30 Dandel Ion wrote:
It's 37.7 because roughly 37% come from the single M, and a ~0.7% for the triple M. Can't remember exact values.
ICs happen with XXXXXXM and XXXXMMM setups, no others. There can only be one IC.
So unless there's a secret TL way of rolling c9 I'm not aware of, it should be impossible to roll two millers (ics)
afaik, afaik.
Oh, yeah, you are right. I didn't remember the setups correctly. Two millers is strictly impossible then, I'll edit my previous message ^^
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On January 24 2013 02:33 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2013 02:30 Dandel Ion wrote:
It's 37.7 because roughly 37% come from the single M, and a ~0.7% for the triple M. Can't remember exact values.
ICs happen with XXXXXXM and XXXXMMM setups, no others. There can only be one IC.
So unless there's a secret TL way of rolling c9 I'm not aware of, it should be impossible to roll two millers (ics)
afaik, afaik. Oh, yeah, you are right. I didn't remember the setups correctly. Two millers is strictly impossible then, I'll edit my previous message ^^
In the C9 modified setup me and bugs use, 2 millers is possible
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On January 24 2013 02:39 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2013 02:33 Djodref wrote:On January 24 2013 02:30 Dandel Ion wrote:
It's 37.7 because roughly 37% come from the single M, and a ~0.7% for the triple M. Can't remember exact values.
ICs happen with XXXXXXM and XXXXMMM setups, no others. There can only be one IC.
So unless there's a secret TL way of rolling c9 I'm not aware of, it should be impossible to roll two millers (ics)
afaik, afaik. Oh, yeah, you are right. I didn't remember the setups correctly. Two millers is strictly impossible then, I'll edit my previous message ^^ In the C9 modified setup me and bugs use, 2 millers is possible
Noooooooooooooooooo
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On January 24 2013 02:30 Dandel Ion wrote:
It's 37.7 because roughly 37% come from the single M, and a ~0.7% for the triple M. Can't remember exact values.
ICs happen with XXXXXXM and XXXXMMM setups, no others. There can only be one IC.
So unless there's a secret TL way of rolling c9 I'm not aware of, it should be impossible to roll two millers (ics)
afaik, afaik.
You sure you get 0.7% for the triple M ?
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
this is why it's terrible to speculate on setup when it's already known in OP it's altered. you can't presume to know about the makeup of blues/mafia/SK unless you know exactly what it's based on (see rock band where i clarified multiple times to be sure)
the only thing you can get is general ideas. more goons = less blues, etc. and there's likely to always be a roleblocker.
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On January 24 2013 02:48 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2013 02:30 Dandel Ion wrote:
It's 37.7 because roughly 37% come from the single M, and a ~0.7% for the triple M. Can't remember exact values.
ICs happen with XXXXXXM and XXXXMMM setups, no others. There can only be one IC.
So unless there's a secret TL way of rolling c9 I'm not aware of, it should be impossible to roll two millers (ics)
afaik, afaik. You sure you get 0.7% for the triple M ?
no not at all
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On January 24 2013 02:49 marvellosity wrote:
this is why it's terrible to speculate on setup when it's already known in OP it's altered. you can't presume to know about the makeup of blues/mafia/SK unless you know exactly what it's based on (see rock band where i clarified multiple times to be sure)
the only thing you can get is general ideas. more goons = less blues, etc. and there's likely to always be a roleblocker.
That's why I really like Keir games, at least you know exactly how the setup has been rolled.
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On January 24 2013 02:52 Dandel Ion wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2013 02:48 Djodref wrote:On January 24 2013 02:30 Dandel Ion wrote:
It's 37.7 because roughly 37% come from the single M, and a ~0.7% for the triple M. Can't remember exact values.
ICs happen with XXXXXXM and XXXXMMM setups, no others. There can only be one IC.
So unless there's a secret TL way of rolling c9 I'm not aware of, it should be impossible to roll two millers (ics)
afaik, afaik. You sure you get 0.7% for the triple M ? no not at all
Could you review my precedent post ? I've edited it and I got ~2.3% for the triple M.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On January 24 2013 02:52 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2013 02:49 marvellosity wrote:
this is why it's terrible to speculate on setup when it's already known in OP it's altered. you can't presume to know about the makeup of blues/mafia/SK unless you know exactly what it's based on (see rock band where i clarified multiple times to be sure)
the only thing you can get is general ideas. more goons = less blues, etc. and there's likely to always be a roleblocker. That's why I really like Keir games, at least you know exactly how the setup has been rolled.
yes, it's good for town mostly, and restrictive for mafia.
for example if a mafia wants to fake-claim blue, then it changes whether there is a Serial Killer present or not.
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EPT
