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TL Mafia LIX - Page 6

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mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 13:59 GMT
#4021
On February 01 2013 22:35 FiveTouch wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2013 22:31 Vivax wrote:
Oats could have elected gonzaw.

Annul or some afk guy (clarity) didn't manage to pull that through.
I'm in for annul, not so much for Oats yet.


The question is, who would be killing off masons instead of a cop who keeps confirming towns for us?

That's really dumb. The remaining mafia is really dumb.

There's no need to kill the cop when he can only make you confirmed town.

On February 01 2013 22:56 austinmcc wrote:
I agree with leaving Vivax up until later, and playing the safer game there.

But the "confirmed townie" list isn't as large as you're making it.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 14:13 GMT
#4025
It means austin is scum.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 14:17 GMT
#4031
On February 01 2013 23:16 FiveTouch wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2013 23:14 Toadesstern wrote:
On February 01 2013 23:12 FiveTouch wrote:
On February 01 2013 22:59 mkfuba07 wrote:
On February 01 2013 22:35 FiveTouch wrote:
On February 01 2013 22:31 Vivax wrote:
Oats could have elected gonzaw.

Annul or some afk guy (clarity) didn't manage to pull that through.
I'm in for annul, not so much for Oats yet.


The question is, who would be killing off masons instead of a cop who keeps confirming towns for us?

That's really dumb. The remaining mafia is really dumb.

There's no need to kill the cop when he can only make you confirmed town.

On February 01 2013 22:56 austinmcc wrote:
I agree with leaving Vivax up until later, and playing the safer game there.

But the "confirmed townie" list isn't as large as you're making it.


What does this even mean?

probably "there might be a 3rd GF"


If there is a 3rd godfather I'm never playing in a BC game again

Then I am of the belief that you will never be playing in a BC game again.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 14:30 GMT
#4051
On February 01 2013 23:16 austinmcc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2013 23:13 mkfuba07 wrote:
It means austin is scum.

There's a check on me and even if the remaining mafia is a framer he can't frame himself.

So either I'm town

or

I'm scum and Vivax is just lying that he checked me last night. Also, in this scenario, Vivax has to be town. So he's a townie just lying about his check for no reason.

That is what you are saying.
On February 01 2013 23:16 austinmcc wrote:
Oh yeah, I guess 3rd GF is also a possibility.

Well played.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 14:38 GMT
#4056
On February 01 2013 23:36 FiveTouch wrote:
Or you could just sheep your elected guys who keep lynching mafia?

All good things come to an end.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 15:52 GMT
#4096
Austin's scum campaign - spoilered due to size
+ Show Spoiler [ Austin's scum official campaign] +
The Chez Campaign
On January 21 2013 09:25 austinmcc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 21 2013 09:20 Vivax wrote:
Why would you want to vote for Chezinu? That is something people that don't care about town would do. I wouldn't put my faith into a guy who speaks in riddles.
The times that I've seen Chezinu give reads, they've been QUITE good. He also, in my mind, has some other qualities that I want in a mayor - someone that scum is going to have a hard time misleading and someone who can deal with being masoned well.
On January 21 2013 09:30 austinmcc wrote:
I guess the above isn't a full thought. If you don't consider Chezinu a candidate for mayor, I think you're being silly. He's a risky pick because he could be scum and he doesn't seem particularly readable before the election ends, plus he might just be chezinu as mayor, but in a vacuum he's a solid mayor candidate and you shouldn't write him off.
On January 21 2013 09:39 austinmcc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 21 2013 09:32 FiveTouch wrote:
On January 21 2013 09:30 austinmcc wrote:
I guess the above isn't a full thought. If you don't consider Chezinu a candidate for mayor, I think you're being silly. He's a risky pick because he could be scum and he doesn't seem particularly readable before the election ends, plus he might just be chezinu as mayor, but in a vacuum he's a solid mayor candidate and you shouldn't write him off.


This post makes no sense. The fact that it's extremely hard to get a confident town-read on Chezinu so early is precisely why it's ok to write him off as a candidate.
I don't like writing someone off as unreadable. It's so lazy to just say "Chez hard to read and silly" and completely ignore the "Chez often has very, very good reads" aspect.

He's got enough upside if he's town and in the mayor position that it's worth considering him and trying to read him.
On January 21 2013 09:56 austinmcc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 21 2013 09:50 FiveTouch wrote:
On January 21 2013 09:39 austinmcc wrote:
On January 21 2013 09:32 FiveTouch wrote:
On January 21 2013 09:30 austinmcc wrote:
I guess the above isn't a full thought. If you don't consider Chezinu a candidate for mayor, I think you're being silly. He's a risky pick because he could be scum and he doesn't seem particularly readable before the election ends, plus he might just be chezinu as mayor, but in a vacuum he's a solid mayor candidate and you shouldn't write him off.


This post makes no sense. The fact that it's extremely hard to get a confident town-read on Chezinu so early is precisely why it's ok to write him off as a candidate.
I don't like writing someone off as unreadable. It's so lazy to just say "Chez hard to read and silly" and completely ignore the "Chez often has very, very good reads" aspect.

He's got enough upside if he's town and in the mayor position that it's worth considering him and trying to read him.


Chezinu rarely, if ever, starts coming up with his good reads during the first cycle. And we are electing a mayor in the first cycle. So yes, I am writing him off. Unless you have some hitherto unheard of method of reading Chezinu on day 1 that you would like to share with us?
Nope, unless I should make something up.


Show nested quote +
On January 21 2013 09:52 Vivax wrote:
It wasn't directed at you, but I appreciate that you answered austin.

I find it concerning that you first defend a Chezinu election and then say you wouldn't vote for him. I thought you would be pushing your favourite candidate besides yourself.

Read closer. I give my reasoning why I think he should be a candidate, and on what conditions I think he's someone to vote for. Those conditions haven't been met, therefore he's not someone I want to vote for atm. And yes, as FT notes, they may be conditions that simply can't be met, maybe you can't get a read on Chez D1, but oh well, still gonna try.
On January 21 2013 10:50 austinmcc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 21 2013 10:40 DearestSnot wrote:
Anyone who has already said they are not interested in voting me or FiveTouch : can I get an explanation why? So far most people have simply given pretty meh opinions. Austin's in particular are quite strange. He says we shouldn't dismiss Chezinu as a candidate, yet he says Chezinu should not be voted. I'm not actually seeing the reasoning for the dissonance there.
You're not killing the folks I'm most interested in killing.

Reads + being hard to mess with + probably decent at dealing with being masoned by a couple folks and trying to read them/not give mafia masons info = good mayoral candidate. Therefore, Chez is a good mayoral candidate.

IF he comes off strongly town, he should be getting votes. IF he doesn't, then he shouldn't. But I dislike that people are considering him to not even be a possible mayor, because who knows what happens in the next day.

My arguments on that point have mainly been that Chez should be a candidate, not that he should be mayor given the first 24 hours of this game. You may disagree that chez could be readable, that he could be a strong town read, but I don't see how it's dissonant that he is a legitimate candidate, and should get votes if he comes off as strongly town + he hasn't come off as strongly town so doesn't have my vote atm.


On January 22 2013 00:39 austinmcc wrote:
Gah. So much posting overnight. Got a couple observations to start today off with.

(1) annul, not everyone is ignoring your accusations. A couple folks have expressly disagreed with you. Yes, Toad has been throwing out some pure wifom, but that's ... whatever. It happens in any game. Vivax's vote for sandroba doesn't bother me, I'd rather he run for mayor but actually consider other players legitimate candidates then try and shove his campaign down everyone's throats. That's a POSITIVE thing in my mind, "I want to be mayor but I also want the best candidate to be mayor." Yes, that's only one of your initial issues you had with Vivax, but that did not strike me as a scummy contradiction in his actions.


(2) You remember when I said Chez was a legitimate candidate and should at least be considered, then got flak for that? Well, I'm still not voting him. But, reading his posts, I got the feeling that he was one of the few people who has posted that they are running who has done anything beyond "I want to be mayor, if you elect me I will lynch this dude (or that dude)."
On January 21 2013 11:00 Chezinu wrote:
As mayor, I will be more than just a mayor. I will form a great circle like no one has ever seen. This circle will be protected. This circle will survive! For Chezinu loves his circles. If mafia dares to destroy it, they will be destroyed themselves!
That. Even if it's bs, even if it's almost nothing. We've seen some general "Ah wil be transparint an gud fer yu." And everyone mayoral candidate has a lynch target. But chez, at least if you trust his statements, is actively thinking about how to be mayor beyond today. Moreso than any other candidate.


Is it enough to vote him? No. But...it looks good. And I wish someone else would have pointed this out, because I think it's actually something worth pulling out of his candidacy versus others.


(3) STUTTERS. debears has posted some, but I'm not picking up anything strong one way or another. BUT STUTTERS GUYS HOLY CRAP.

He returned with a single post -
Show nested quote +
On January 21 2013 03:20 Stutters695 wrote:
On January 21 2013 00:31 austinmcc wrote:
You also asked for scum reads. In terms of people I'm looking at:

stutters - a few very short posts. Nothing much of substance. Asks some questions to Toad here but never follows any of that up. Easy questions to participate, without really going anywhere with the answers. Mildly scummy for now.

debears - slightly worrisome in the same way. Drops that he won't vote vivax, supports chezinu, gives a short answer when asked "why chezinu" and then dips. Along with stutters, he reads like he showed up because he thought he should make posts, made some posts, lumpY I also remember debears being generally interested in the game, and would expect ... more involvement when he was here, or at the very least more answerage.

Given that this game started Friday night, that we have a couple players we haven't seen ANYTHING from, and a decent number of players we've seen very little from, those are my top reads. Right now I'm not dealing with everything else.

Short posts yes, but it was like two hours into the game. I dropped the questions on toad because he answered and the discussion in the thread cleared it up pretty well for me.

I'm catching up on the thread now.
This post doesn't make me feel any better.

When I rolled mafia my first time, I had a hard time not taking this out when accused of being mafia. "Well yes, I've been doing x thing that's scummy, but..." where the "but..." is something WEAK. Stutters does that here, picks out a single thing I didn't like, admits to it, and then "but it was early." It doesn't matter if it's early, plenty of folks wrote long early posts (candidacies, general strategies, etc.).

Moreover, JUST LOOK AT THE FRIGGIN' POST AND HIS FILTER. There's been way more discussion, way more to look at, comment on, anything. Stutters hasn't done ANY of that. He pops in, says he's catching up, does NOTHING beyond that.

This reads to me like someone who came under some fire, dropped by to address, but has been told to keep his head low.


To anyone DEFENDING stutters, or who thinks stutters may be town:
Show nested quote +
On January 21 2013 11:09 DearestSnot wrote:
On January 21 2013 11:03 austinmcc wrote:
You find a debears lynch "reasonable." How do you feel about a stutters lynch?


I find the suspicion reasonable but I don't think I would lynch either of those players today. Nor would I lynch stutters, particularly because stutters is a player I would firmly put in the "scummy as town" column.

I BELIEVE someone else made a comment that they didn't want to lynch stutters, but I have lost that. If you made that comment, let me know plox. This was the only one I remembered. Let's not lynch stutters because stutters is scummy as town.

I know I've said that about players this game. But I don't like it as reasoning not to lynch stutters. He did something scummy, and then the followup has also been scummy. He just dipped in, said he was catching up, dipped out. Gave this really weak response to some weak early pressure on him. To me, it reads EXACTLY like he has been told to lay low. Someone brought up the difference between a mayoral D1 and a normal lynch, where players can hide or play poorly because you won't be under constant scrutiny, the discussion is about the mayor and his lynch instead of who is scummy (to some extent, or at least to the extent that it allows more trolling to go unpunished D1). Stutters is harnessing that. Stutters is staying under the radar, his head way down, and everyone is passing him over for other targets that are ... higher profile or more active.

Do not forget stutters. Don't pass him over. Read his filter. Read his response, and ask yourself whether a "yes, but" and "now I'm catching up" into silence feels scummy or towny as a response.

Stutters should be the mayoral lynch today.


The Gonzaw Campaign
On January 22 2013 01:11 austinmcc wrote:
I know I had some votes for mayor earlier. I will gladly accept votes/run/whatever. Right now, I would lynch stutters, because of the reasons given above. I think his couple posts were scummy and I think his response to an accusation was scummy.

Some assorted reasons you should vote me:
(1) I found that kittens stuff in the OP.
(2) I often write walls of text, but they are legible.
(3) I tend to be pretty clear with my thought processes. You may find them absurd (red check on Sandroba in paranoia comes to mind), but I almost always explain my reads and my actions in ways that you can follow.
(4) I am thinking about the game longer term than today's lynch. I've noted that the the masons in this game are going to be of particular importance to the mayoral position, as he's likely to get masoned by most/all of them, and needs to know who is scum/town and what information to give out/trust coming in. I think I have toned down my paranoia, but have a healthy sense of mistrust and am relatively difficult to sway. I don't currently plan on setting up some town circle immediately, but I at least notice that Chezinu was talking about that, again...I'm thinking about the mayor position as more than just a lynch today.
(5) I will sometimes post paint pictures. But not scum-BH-getting-lynched amounts.
(6) I am generally pretty involved in the games I play. I will not be an absentee.
(7) You know who I am. I don't think smurfing should disqualify someone from running, nor should being a crazy-play-loving enigma. But you can go through my games, see my posting style, see how I'm usually trying to figure things out, and some of you have a decent handle on how I play from being with me in those games. There's slightly more accountability there, if you're into that.


NOW. Check this out. Here are reasons you should NOT vote me.
(1) Next Saturday I will be almost entirely unavailable. I don't want an inactive mayor, and I don't want someone who will miss a full cycle. Saturday will be the first half of D3, so ... it's not a full cycle, but that's an important consideration. I have not seen any other candidate discuss their availability, and I don't like the idea that we could elect someone and have them go MIA for a bit.
(2) In sort of the same vein, I'm a little behind at work. I will absolutely put in the time if I'm mayor, but I'm not entirely sure how much I can actually play during like 8 AM - 7 PM or so EST. I can read up, and I can post some, but I can't promise to be able to give the game the full treatment during those hours.
(3) In the past I have been both overly paranoid AND stupid when I try to scheme. Those are not qualities that you want in a mayor. However, and this part is positive, I have specifically tried to temper those qualities, and in the games that I've played more recently I think I've done okay with that. I felt like I was a good threat-quality monitor and positive influence on...GSL mini 3? Tried specifically to improve my play and the thread itself, rather than just make reads, and I think that was good for the game. Tried to use my abilities to help town in the recent world-swapping mafia, and felt like I did okay with that (noticed things were dead D1, used my ability to try and make things un-dead, but didn't follow through enough after doing so). Ymmv on how much I can actually consciously temper my paranoia and sometimes-stupidity though.


I think that's an honest assessment of how my play makes me both a good and bad mayor. I'm still currently looking at stutters as my lynch candidate. Right now on the to-do list is: (1) Look at stutters past games, does he feel scummy as town? If so, does he seem scummy in those games in the same way he seems scummy in this game? (Can feel scummy for different reasons, "scummy as town" is no good, but "looks scummy for x as town and looks scummy for x here" is better). (2) Look more at prplhz, since there's a sizeable group on him. I don't like some of the case on him, but it's got some valid points and shouldn't be ignored. (3) Try and find some little things. Chez thinking about the future, toad early on thinking about solving the game, little bits and pieces that are interesting or can help us get better reads on specific players. (4) Look at Gonzaw hard. If he's town, I think he'd be a solid mayor. He can get caught up in his own scheming just like I can, but he's shown an ability to be able to direct a game/faction if put into a position of power, and that's, again, a valuable quality to have in a mayor. I do not want scumGonzaw in that position though, at all. So he's a lot like Chez for me, in that I really don't want to risk mayor Gonzaw unless we're pretty certain of his alignment.


This post is after he's gotten a few votes, and after it's pretty clear that chez isn't getting many more votes.

Austin says he'll accept votes, but very clearly doesn't want us to vote him. His reasons for mayor austin are mostly silly nothings (including an additional chez mention), and his reasons not to want mayor austin are both reasonable if he is town, and give him an excuse if he is scum.

The bold is almost 100% in favor of scum. He disagrees with the prplhz lynch (though he says he will look into him), he reminds us of how chez would be a good mayor, he adds that gonzaw would be a good mayor, but he's not going to vote for either of them.

On January 22 2013 01:31 austinmcc wrote:
Read over Gonzaw some more. Like Gonzaw. Gonzaw is a candidate I would place a vote on.

Some short reasons:
  • This bit of a post - + Show Spoiler +
    I am reminded of really old game called Master Of magic The guide to it says they would like to see the AI summon Toren Once, just once. Toren in that game is a virtual force of nature, one game strategy is to summon toren but it requires such huge resource commitment that normally you just could have won the other way. I wish to Summon a Chezinu once.
    - just feels like an odd and genuine thought.
  • Picked up on stutters, has stayed somewhat on stutters.
  • Looks dumb because he's agreeing with me, but look at this - + Show Spoiler +
    I do have to say that I agree with austin that JieXian's 1st post wasn't as "scummy" as many people (you+sandro) pointed out, it's null at worst.
    I think the 1st posts from many other people would be "far" more scummy (in relation, not objectively at least), like our guy Stutters' up there, and maybe other's like FiveTouch, or maybe even debears.
    Why did you give Jiexian so much flak Vivax? Why did you instantly want to lynch him instead of other's (based on their 1st post as well)?
    - He doesn't just say "I don't find JX's post scummy." He says, "I also don't find JX's post scummy, especially when compared to the posts from these people." That shows me he's looking through the game, reading posts, and actively keeping track of people looking scummy. Would expect scum D1 this game to be more focused on controlling who gets the positions of power in this game, rather than making a little offhand remark like this.
  • Is wary of Sandroba, and follows up on that wariness. Has asked Toad multiple times for updates on how Toad reads Sandroba's continued play.
  • Is critical of others reads when he deals with them, but again, pushes things forward. Not "I think JX town" but "I think JX town, because under the reasoning you guys gave for him to be scum, these guys scummier." Same thing when he talks about oats here. Not "I think oats town/scum," but "I don't like this bit of the case on oats, but I do like these bits. Here is how I see things." Then an added bonus follow-up about stutters AND sandro that post.
  • When chatting with mocsta for a moment, shows he's critically thinking about the difference between mayoral and normal games, but also at the end of that again follows up by asking about mocsta's views on stutters and clarity


I view Gonzaw as townie because of the above. I know that a lot of those points are all the same thing, in that Gonzaw is never just stopping at a response or an explanation, but continuing to make reads or push his reads. Even so, I like that, and the fact that he's constantly doing that makes it feel more genuine and townie to me.

Look at how townie gonzaw is! I'm still not voting for him though. Even though I said I would vote for him if I thought he was townie. If you check axle's filter, you'll see that he switches from chez to gonzaw less than an hour before this post. The scumteam was switching gears. Austin never voted for him because then there would be 3 scum voting for him, which I'm sure he wanted to avoid.

On January 22 2013 11:23 austinmcc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 22 2013 11:15 Toadesstern wrote:
On January 22 2013 11:11 austinmcc wrote:
I'll admit to liking the logic behind Sandro being worried that players he found scummy/questionable voting for FT = prplhz town, but now we know that wasn't the case.

Also, given that prplhz was scum, I wouldn't be surprised if I had 2 scum, or at some point during the cycle had about 2 scum, on my list of votes. Stutters still doesn't leave me with a townie feeling, but I picked up a couple weird votes and I was in the don't lynch prplhz camp.

that's actually a legit point.

I started getting votes very late so I'd say there's bound to be something inside the group of people voting for you or inside the group of people voting for chez. He had 3 people voting for him as well after all and if I remember correctly you didn't get much more than that at any point.

Definitely worth a look at. inb4 another awesome ven-diagram from Toad figuring out mafia!

The chez voters were chez/axle/grush for a while. Not exactly votes that I find informative.

The votes on me aren't wonderfully informative, given that one is from me and one was from sandroba. Bar the early votes from you and fivetouch, I had oats and djo on me at times. Late enough tonight that I'm going to put it off, but tomorrow I'll look at when in terms of the feel of the game they voted me, unless someone else has beat me to it.

I know oats's vote was a post that people had issue with, and the "Why would you vote austin when oats is voting austin?" comment was a legitimate concern when it was made. djodref's exact reasons I don't remember.

There were also some...halfvotes? BKE says he would have voted for me. I believe it was mocsta who voted me in the thread but not in the voting thread itself?


He suggests that there was nothing to gain from the chez voters, while two of them have flipped scum. He also suggests that there were at least two scum voting for him during the day (which I never understood to begin with), and NONE of them have flipped scum. Sandroba, oats, djo, BKE, fuba, and mocsta (implied) were all mentioned. Even if he doesn't do this to convince others, it gives him a place to "scumhunt" where he'll only be lynching townies.

Long story short, Austin did everything in his power to get chez or gonzaw elected without actually voting for them himself. He constantly encourages others to vote for the two of them, but he won't. Even after saying that he thinks gonzaw is a good vote if he is town, then states that he is town. Gonzaw could have been sheriff if austin voted, but there were already two scum on him (three after chez switched). Read his posts on Vivax and see how much he's clearly trying to associate him with chez. His play D1 reads as entirely too clean while still being 95% scum motivated for it to be an accident.

Then there's the delurk to post his pre-written self-defense, and then claim Veteran when it does no good. He says someone should shoot him to confirm, when there's no reason to believe we have vigi or jacks. There was no reason to claim.

Then add in the fact that he barely commented on axle all game except to say that he didn't like him for not answering his snowman/dogs question. And the fact that there was only one person seriously pressuring him yesterday, and that was yamato. Yamato is now dead. And the DT remaining alive despite there being no way scum is safe from them unless they're a 3rd godfather. Oh, and the recent post about doubting marv and toad. I mean, they're clearly blinding themselves to his scumminess, but they're town. I haven't done the math, but I'm pretty sure he needs a marv mislynch to win the game.

##Vote: austinmcc

I should have known he was scum when I found him townie D1.

Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 15:58 GMT
#4101
On February 01 2013 23:40 FiveTouch wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2013 23:38 Vivax wrote:
Dunno, I don't like lynching fuba atm.


Yeah, but I do.

Plus he's just trolling us at the moment, look.

Nah, marv. I'm just trolling you.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 16:27 GMT
#4115
Austin was townie D1, has ridden it until his claim, and is going to try to ride his claim to endgame.

The threat to him yesterday wasn't a DT, it was yamato.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 16:48 GMT
#4128
When I voted double lynch I really didn't expect us to just settle for a double mislynch.

Scum austin answers every question.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 16:51 GMT
#4130
I do. It filled in all my blanks.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 16:57 GMT
#4133
It does. I think you're wrong.

While I wouldn't oppose your plan, since I'm almost positive we'd win anyway if we follow it, I think we can win this cycle. There's also the kind of strong personal motivation for me to not be mislynched because it's never happened before, and I like being able to say that XD
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 17:01 GMT
#4135
How is that a scumslip? It makes perfect sense.

You would go through the "unconfirmed" townies first, realize that they're all dead, be left with yourself and toad, and end up lynching austin eventually. It would take like, 3-4 days or something, but you'd eventually get it right. This saves us that time.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 17:15 GMT
#4137
On February 01 2013 23:05 FiveTouch wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2013 22:56 austinmcc wrote:
I agree with leaving Vivax up until later, and playing the safer game there.

But the "confirmed townie" list isn't as large as you're making it.


It is, and it's this attitude that might stop mafia from conceding. Anyway, here's my notes I drew up:

10-1

FiveTouch
Toad
Vivax
austin
debears

annul
mkfuba
adam
grush
oats
stutters

8-1, 7-1 - Toad confirms someone not mafia (say Stutters)

FiveTouch
Toad
debears
austin
stutters

adam
grush
oats


6-1, 5-1

FiveTouch
Toad
austin
stutters

Oats
grush

4-1, 3-1

FiveTouch
Toad
Stutters

Oats

Lynch for the win. Note, if mafia hold their shot so Stutters (or whoever Toad jails) isn't confirmed, there's 2 lynches at the end and not just 1.




In case Vivax is mafia:

10-1

FiveTouch
Toad
Vivax
austin
debears

annul
mkfuba
adam
grush
oats
stutters

8-1, 7-1 - Vivax confirms Stutters

FiveTouch
Toad
Vivax
austin
stutters

adam
grush
oats

6-1, 5-1 - Vivax confirms grush

FiveTouch
Toad
Vivax
stutters
grush

Oats

Lynch Vivax + Oats next 2 days, game over.

In both of these cases, austin dies. Did I misunderstand something in here somewhere?

Oh shit, I did. Looked down the list and saw austin dead either way. (you have austin dying in one shot in each scenario, btw. It would take two, remember?)

Well then I disagree with your plan, and say we should definitely lynch austin today.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 17:42 GMT
#4139
That was poorly explained, but it should be evidence of my sincerity that I didn't make sure it's exactly what I wanted to say before posting it.

When I looked at your post, I scanned down each list, saw austin dead, and that was enough for me. I didn't actually follow along with it. Now I realize you assume austin dying to NKs (you'll have to adjust your notes a bit in that case). I still think you guys would figure it out eventually, but if you're just going to blindly assume that there isn't a 3rd godfather when all the evidence points to it, then I'd rather not risk it. Swap out stutters for austin in that first scenario, last day, and that's how I see that day ending. You lynch oats, austin shoots one of you, austin wins.

If you throw this game away after the lead we have, and all the sheeping I did to get here, I'm going to be incredibly angry.

Lynch me immediately tomorrow if austin flips veteran, because I'm apparently useless as town. But lynch austin today.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 18:03 GMT
#4142
But I AM worrying, because I really, really don't want to be mislynched. It's like, my only point of pride in this game. I've never played particularly well in any of my games, but I've never been bad enough to get collectively lynched by the entire town (vigi'd once, doesn't count XD). This moment, right now, is the first time I've felt like I was actually playing instead of just observing and commenting.

What do you see changing your mind regarding austin in the days to come? When you reach this point:

3-1
FiveTouch
Toad
austin

oats

What do you see yourself doing? Because according to the plan you're lynching oats. That loses the game.

Did you read what I wrote about him? None of my points has ever been disputed regarding austin. The only thing holding the votes back is his claim, which he was incredibly overeager to present. He knew that, which is why he claimed at such a pointless time. He was afraid, and he made a mistake. That manner of that claim was a scumtell. He killed yamato because yamato was the only one strongly opposing him. Everything makes perfect sense.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 18:10 GMT
#4144
The remaining scum isn't afraid of a DT. They found a mason who was tunneling austin to be a more important NK.

What does that mean to you?
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 18:31 GMT
#4148
Ugh. Either way, I've proven that it's not impossible for mafia to win. This method is flawed, and we're being lazy. Didn't you say that the double lynch was supposed to get people talking? This is the exact opposite of what you proposed. And you're lynching the only person who's doing any talking.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 20:46 GMT
#4154
You expect me to believe yamato wasn't still suspicious of you? As scum, he was your biggest threat, though I don't even know how he came to the conclusion that you were less scummy at that point. The flip just confirmed that your scumbuddy did exactly what you were trying to persuade townies to do: vote for chez, and then vote for gonzaw. It's telling that you picked up on the only part of my argument that I knew could be contested though. It means you know it too.

Quiz Time: Can anyone tell me who else responded to one of my good posts while commenting on only the least important aspects of it? + Show Spoiler +
On January 30 2013 15:25 AxleGreaser wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

On January 30 2013 14:22 mkfuba07 wrote:
Annul

The town annul explanation is far more feasible. I'm about 95% more inclined to believe that town annul had a significant oversight and had trouble explaining himself than I am to believe that scum annul risked his life quite blatantly to save someone who ultimately was likely going to be lynched anyway.


Without commenting on the accuracy or presence or lack of holes in your argument.

Why did you make it, or more specifically why did you post it in the thread?
On January 30 2013 15:30 AxleGreaser wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 30 2013 14:49 mkfuba07 wrote:
I explained for him because he wasn't doing a good job explaining it himself. It's dumb to waste time thinking about lynching town, and some people are significantly misunderstanding him. This includes vivax, yamato, toad, and marv. These are people I don't want focusing on someone who isn't flipping scum. They've driven the conversation for most of the game, and this is my way to keep them on track.

Do you agree, or disagree with my conclusion?

As for who I want to lynch today, I'm not completely sure, if you can believe that. I've been on this annul/austin/axle filterdive for the last day or so and it's got me questioning some previous light townreads. My vote has been on axle since this morning following toad's posts, but I feel myself inching away from voting for him. I took down some posts during class that I wanted to respond to, so I'll get those up eventually. If I had to say who I feel most likely to flip scum at the moment, I would say austin.


Why has it been doing that.... ?

Ahh

because you are currently not voting for your top scum read...
" If I had to say who I feel most likely to flip scum at the moment, I would say austin. "


If austin is town, he's played literally the most unfortunate game of mafia ever. His actions D1 fit perfectly into what we now know to be the scum goals. 100% perfectly!

The votes right now are based solely on setup speculation. If three godfathers wasn't unlikely, every single person would be voting for austin based on his D1 alone. I don't even know how to explain anymore how perfectly he fits the scumteam.

At least when I sheep I've thought about it long and hard. Those single posts take me hours to write because I keep going back through filters, seeing what fits and what doesn't. Half of the time I just delete the whole thing because I decide it's wrong or inconclusive, and I start over. It's probably not the best method of playing mafia because it doesn't give me a very strong town presence, but I put the effort in. This sheeping from town just feels lazy. Marv is really good, I know. That's why I sheep him anytime we're in a game together. But he's not infallible (BKE, me, most likely oats), and I haven't seen a reason to set oats and I above austin on his scumdar. He's just decided to lynch up the list, and as I've already said, that will lose us the game. Why not just lynch scum?
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 22:34 GMT
#4169
Welp, I'm glad I didn't post what I was working on.

Apparently I have an overactive imagination. -_-
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
February 01 2013 22:35 GMT
#4170
Sorry for doubting, marv. Everything seemed so right to me!
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
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