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debears
United States2516 Posts
We don't figure out anything about either of them. What are the odds of mafia framing a townie at the early stage of the game? That would mean that mafia, heading into n1 was comfortable with the main targets of suspicion. After a prplhz lynch, I wouldn't think that all the mafia would be well hidden and not under suspicion. | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
1) I don't really think that I would've checked him as Vivax. 2) I don't think mafia would've used a frame on him instead of nking Gonzaw 3) I wouldn't think mafia would expect a check on Gonzaw | ||
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AxleGreaser
Australia1154 Posts
Ok guys I was feeling off yesterday. Feel reads was all broken. Rather than derp more i took a break. I have just been reading the thread since my last post. Frankly now I need another break. (no thats not a joke... I am still not feeling right.) Also remember I am in Australia my time zones are not like yours and sometimes my life says do this or that. There is no way i am analysing into that last half a day in this frame of mind. Fortunately I dont have to. I got up now just in case I did. (Yeah its not early AM here but I still just got up) (and am going back to bed...) On the basis of a claimed Cop check.... Vote: Gonzaw BTW I have checked and the double lynch is running Well For me, the stone cold reason to vote Double Lynch is that it maximizes the chance of us reducing scum kp to 1 for the following night... (assuming i can count) Under no circumstances take your vote of double lynch please... unless I just derped again. Also ANY one not voting for double Lynch I am going to want to know why. Anyone who was reluctant to vote for double Lynch I am going to want to know why. Also I would like to know why people challenged me on why I did.... Yeah if i had ridden the annul early bus sure... But I was the one I believe that looked at that and said WTF. And having said WTF did something else... Double lynch sure its obvious but annul ..... that early.... We would have wasted the day or large slice of it and thus learned nothing. I have forgotten who rode the a anul bus that early but i will want answers.... And when my feel play brain, is back on line.... | ||
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Vivax
21991 Posts
Pay attention to how Toad speaks to people directly. I'm not quoting this here (yet), but you're free to check that in the filter. Look especially at how he talked to me and Oats, As opposed to Toad and Mocsta. On January 21 2013 13:48 gonzaw wrote: I don't really agree with a prplhz lynch this D1 though. It seems like his normal play, and I don't think there's much to go on to be sure he's scum this game. He's not the paragon of townieness but I don't remember him being so in any town game from his (granted I only obsed games he played, I don't remember playing with him I think). There are better candidates out there. To be honest I wouldn't mind lynching Clarity either, dude has been passive as fuck every post of his, and just straight up disappeared. I take it he wouldn't just completely go AFK as scum after posting "I'll promise you reads", and he has to vote so he has to come back and post something. I suggest we pay attention to when he does. I am still running for mayor. I take it being sheriff wouldn't be bad, I'd still get protection so I can fuck with scum for more time and I trust myself with a JK; but I prefer to trust my judgement this D1 and lynch who I think is likelier to be scum. If I can't be mayor...hmm, I'll have to think about it. I think I'd prefer Toad, because I don't see him playing like TLI (was it?) at all and seems the most likely one to be town. Plus he's making sense and active and that shit. Fivetouch is making sense, but I'm not sure I trust him to be town yet. On January 22 2013 05:11 gonzaw wrote: It's obvious I won't be mayor now (it's like 5 hours until deadline right?), so I'm okay with the sheriff position. austin seems likely town as well, and posts his thought process and explanations, and he'd be a good player to have protection from BGs as well, wouldn't mind him being sheriff either. Wouldn't mind Toad being sheriff either, but yeah those successive votes on him seem weird. *snip* I'd be happy with Five being mayor if he lynched Oats (likely what I'd do if I was mayor), and of course spends the rest of the game leading town, posting his thought process, being open/transparent, etc. I'll have to check again some of the stuff said about Stutters, but he can easily be scum as well. Dunno if I'd lynch him before Oats though, but if both are scum it doesn't really matter, but I'm leaning on lynching Oats this D1. I'll respond to questions I've skimmed later. The successive votes on Toad seem weird (why?). Yet he votes him over austin afterwards. On January 22 2013 07:13 gonzaw wrote: I'll see if I get some votes first. I prefer you over austin though, so if it comes down to it I'll change my vote to you. Skimmed JieXian's filter but didn't find anything. He participates in discussions and the like, don't really see him as scum now. I don't know wtf Vivax is on, try to keep a cool head dude, and analyze behaviours and contributions, not petty shit like someone saying you were in the US and then saying you weren't; and stop overreacting if you are town. He never changed vote though. But he has posted reasons. On January 22 2013 09:57 gonzaw wrote: Hmm. Okay, does someone feel like me or austin should be sheriff? The voting is pretty close and there is little time left. If someone is willing to vote me for sheriff I'll keep my vote, if not I'll vote Toad just in case (or maybe just leave it like it is since he's in the lead) On January 22 2013 09:53 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Day 1 Votecount FiveTouch - 7 DearestSnot FiveTouch debears JieXian mkfuba07 yamato77 prplhz austinmcc - 3 Oatsmaster austinmcc sandroba Chezinu - 2 Chezinu grush57 Toadesstern - 4 Toadesstern Vivax Stutters695 djodref gonzaw - 3 Gonzaw mocsta axlegreaser annul - 1 annul Make your own conclusions about this. If you think they are good post them. | ||
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Vivax
21991 Posts
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Vivax
21991 Posts
On January 21 2013 14:47 gonzaw wrote: How am I using meta? Well, rather than meta I'm using reputation and experience. It doesn't feel like something a scum Vivax would do, mostly because his name is "Vivax" and not "Palmar" or "wherebugsgo", or even "Risen" or "kush", etc (you get what I mean). So Mocsta, you think these "heuristics" used to see if Vivax is town are useless? How do you plan on reading Vivax? If you "read" him as scum (like yamato does) because of Vivax doing some "bad" plays or something, how do you know he can't do the same as town? Are you opposing this just so Vivax doesn't get the sheriff role, or just because people seem to think Vivax is town and you don't want them to (that easily)? I like to use that kind of heuristics with those types of players, because they are usually right. Of course if you put a wbg or Radfield in front of me they are kind of meaningless (as I painfully learned in the past  )I would think Mocsta is town just cause of the way gonzaw talked to him in the bolded part. But this is still quite speculative. The way gonzaw and Toad talk to each other has to be looked at however. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On January 25 2013 07:53 debears wrote: Austin, here's the problem with not lynching Gonzaw: We don't figure out anything about either of them. What are the odds of mafia framing a townie at the early stage of the game? That would mean that mafia, heading into n1 was comfortable with the main targets of suspicion. After a prplhz lynch, I wouldn't think that all the mafia would be well hidden and not under suspicion. Phonepost. If we don't lynch gonzaw, AND neither dies tonight, AND nobody checks gonzaw AND nobody checks vivax if he isn't framed, then and only then do we find out.nothing. Except we do find out something, the alignment of whoever we DO lynch. Right now, if we flip scum gonzaw then we find out he's scum and vivax almost certainly town cop. If we flip him and he's town, we find out... He's town and either was framed or vivax lying. You're overestimating the info we gain FOR SURE from a flip, and it's not more/much more than what is gained from. Any other lynch | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On January 25 2013 07:46 DearestSnot wrote: I don't think all 3 mafia. Given no mason claims, I think frame more likely than gonzaw scum.so you're encouraging mafia to not do anything, is that what I'm supposed to understand from this post? You STILL want to lynch Oats despite the fact that 1. We pretty much have to kill gonzaw/vivax. 2. This is a strong indication that Oats is not actually mafia. Think about it, if gonzaw is scum why would he run on a platform that preferred lynching Oats to prplhz? The only possible answer to that is all 3 were scum, but that idea is so preposterous that I can't believe anyone would ever seriously consider it. Secondly, you state a bunch of shit about not being willing to lynch people who aren't doing anything, when that's basically the modus operandi of scum this game. Just look at prplhz and gonzaw, neither of them did jack shit. In fact, it's what scum do in MOST games. They sit around and pretend to do shit when in reality they aren't doing anything at all. So why the aversion to lynching players like Chezinu and BKE when as town you expect them to formulate reads? Why encourage that type of play? Why encourage mafia to continue to lurk and noob townies to continue to do nothing? As to aversion to lynching inactive, yes, scum hide in inactivrs. And we let them. Always. Whatever causes us to let them in other games causes me to do so here. Or at the very least, I don't want some late-in-the-cycle whakc-a-lurker game. Bugs. Why didn't gonzaw mason anyone? If he's scum, why didn't he mason? Every person who is voting him needs to have an answer to that imo. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On January 25 2013 08:30 Stutters695 wrote: I've considered the possibility of a frame but it feels like an awful lot has to line up for that to be true. Vivax would have to have picked the same target as the farmer first of all which is possible but unlikely and we won't learn much of anything in addition to rushing a lynch. Why didn't gonzaw, as a mason, mason people? | ||
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FiveTouch
Marshall Islands1474 Posts
What has gonzaw done in the meanwhile? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On January 25 2013 08:32 FiveTouch wrote: absolutely Dick all.austin, it's one and a half hours from the flip, and several hours since Vivax released his check. What has gonzaw done in the meanwhile? He did do stuff in aperture 2 and acant believe mini when he was town and attacked. But...why didn't he mason anyone? I don't think he is getting lynched for his response here, nobody is pulling up past games and arguing meta. This is a lynch based.on a check that popped out a role which doesn't make sense to me here. | ||
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Vivax
21991 Posts
On January 25 2013 08:32 austinmcc wrote: Why didn't gonzaw, as a mason, mason people? How would you know, as a townie, that gonzaw didn't mason people? | ||
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FiveTouch
Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On January 25 2013 08:35 austinmcc wrote: absolutely Dick all. He did do stuff in aperture 2 and acant believe mini when he was town and attacked. But...why didn't he mason anyone? I don't think he is getting lynched for his response here, nobody is pulling up past games and arguing meta. This is a lynch based.on a check that popped out a role which doesn't make sense to me here. You stated fairly specifically earlier that you do worse with setup stuff and not actual finding of mafia. I agree with you that a lack of mason partner(s) for gonzaw is odd. But has his reaction to Vivax's claim been mafia or town? From a standpoint that doesn't include roles? It's possible he was framed, or a miller, but probably not. Of course if we're talking about probabilities, I got mindfucked by Oats being a bodyguard, but there we go. | ||
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
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FiveTouch
Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On January 25 2013 08:38 mkfuba07 wrote: What do you think about what I've said? I can't answer why he didn't use his mason power. I'm neither scum nor a mason. Nor have I ever been scum nor a mason. But I've thought it through, and unless he is another miller AND millers get randomized roles, I think him being scum is the most likely situation. Correct, it is more likely. I asked the same question about millers as you did in PMs shortly after Vivax's claim, and I'm actually quite annoyed that neither of the hosts have replied to me by now, or to your question in the thread. | ||
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On January 25 2013 08:37 Vivax wrote: How would you know, as a townie, that gonzaw didn't mason people? Pretty sure he said he didn't mason anyone. If he masoned anyone, they would know he is mason, and still haven't said anything. This means he masoned two scum, and proceeded to lie about it. This question is ridiculous. | ||
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Vivax
21991 Posts
On January 25 2013 08:37 Vivax wrote: How would you know, as a townie, that gonzaw didn't mason people? Why would you assume from someone who should be most likely scum from your perspective that he didn't mason anyone just cause he didn't say it? Or the people masoned didn't? | ||
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Vivax
21991 Posts
On January 25 2013 08:40 mkfuba07 wrote: Pretty sure he said he didn't mason anyone. If he masoned anyone, they would know he is mason, and still haven't said anything. This means he masoned two scum, and proceeded to lie about it. This question is ridiculous. Imagine if Chezinu has been masoned by him. You think someone like Chezinu would surely have told you by now? | ||
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On January 25 2013 08:41 Vivax wrote: Why would you assume from someone who should be most likely scum from your perspective that he didn't mason anyone just cause he didn't say it? Or the people masoned didn't? I don't really understand the question, but right now he's being lynched. If he is scum, and he masoned someone, then proceeded to lie about it, then there should be at least one townie among the two people he masoned to come out and say he's lying. Otherwise he masoned two of his own scumbuddies... If he is town and he's lying about masoning, then he's not really playing to his wincon, is he? | ||
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