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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On January 19 2013 12:05 Hopeless1der wrote: Yeah I'm going to make a case on Hapa tomorrow morning, tired right now This guy getting lynched... (•_•) Guess you're pretty ( •_•)>⌐■-■ (⌐■_■) hopeless | ||
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grush57
Korea (South)2582 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
On January 19 2013 11:54 grush57 wrote: this guy is scum. Also because hopeless is too... ##Vote: Hopeless1dr Care to explain? I'm actually starting to suspect that Hapa or iamperfection is scum this game. - Hapa has been unusually inactive / slightly lurky and almost only focused on Prom -> Hopeless so far, not doing much else really - usually he's been the leading force for town in pushing the discussion and scumhunting + analysis - iamperfection has been mostly asking questions, posting one-liners and sheeping votes so far - granted that his play in LVIII looks similar on the surface (and he was town.....) | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
In any case, I'm starting to think that grush is scum. That whole "starsenses" phrase just feels forced and too stupid to take seriously. The way he's repeating it so much also feels like he's using it as some sort of a "shield". He also has done absolutely nothing to aid in scumhunting and has basically just hidden behind general inactivity and the thread having bigger issues to worry about. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
 Hopeless has basically defaulted to voting Lazermonkey in several situations, so if Hopeless flips scum, I'm having a hard time believing that Lazermonkey is also scum. This is of course in addition to Kush behaving suicidally for a scum player during D1 and Lazermonkey remaining calm under intense pressuring. If Hopeless happens to flip town, I have to say that Lazermonkey and Hapa look worse. Hapa has basically tunneled Hopeless for days and hasn't done that much else, while Lazermonkey has been tunneled by Hopeless for days. I'm also wondering about this post (latest post from Lazermonkey...): On January 19 2013 02:14 Lazermonkey wrote: Nothing happening atm : (. I'm going to the cinema + food for a few hours. Should be back before deadline tho. Lazermonkey, with this and your earlier post saying you're "not posting because you're not in danger of getting lynched", it looks like you're seriously actively lurking. Please, step up your activity and play the game. You're definitely in big danger of getting lynched tomorrow especially if you continue with this apathy. | ||
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iamperfection
United States9639 Posts
Maybe he is discussing with his scum team if it's a good idea or not. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On January 19 2013 13:55 wherebugsgo wrote: This guy getting lynched... (•_•) Guess you're pretty ( •_•)>⌐■-■ (⌐■_■) hopeless http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoPWALM2riQ I giggled a bit btw, with the number of power roles flipped, we should definitely be looking at a 3-man scumteam, and scum have a roleblocker. @Jay: Going through the database (TL Mafia Database) grush57 has 2 scumgames listed Starsenses FIRST occured in TL Mafia LV. AFTER LV, grush rolled scum in TL Mafia LVI. STARSENSES were not in effect You're right to be suspicious Jay, there is just barely enough evidence to believe grush's towncrumb, but either way I think scum are elsewhere. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + As I've already pointed out, Hapa tried to last-minute Ruuch, and went on to say that my Ruuch-vote was just as scummy as his Ruuch-vote. Not true in the slightest. For reasoning, I refer you to HAPA's own post with Promethelax: On January 14 2013 15:53 Hapahauli wrote: Yeah but Prome, what's scummy about your stance on Xatalos is that you have this huge scumread on Supersoft, can't find a single reason that he's town (in your own words), and all of a sudden completely happy with lynching Xatalos. AND Ruuch. It reads like you don't give a crap about who gets lynched. It's not as though Hapa didn't have a strong scumread on Prom either, because he actively tried to disable the Lazermonkey lynch: On January 15 2013 05:48 Hapahauli wrote: I'm not liking a Lazermonkey lynch. He looks like a replacement who's lost and not fully caught up. It's not alignment indicative, and lynching him seems like a coin-flip at best. Right now, we need to lynch the guy that's actually done something scummy - Promethelax. He was convinced SuperSoft was scum all game, then merrily decided he was happy with Xatalos + Ruuch being dead, then now is onto Lazermonkey for being a sheep. He earlier questioned me for going after lynch-bait, and now his top three scumreads are perhaps the biggest lynch-bait in the game. He needs to hang today. Hapa's stance is quoted in red. Now lets look at Lazer's post, and do note the timestamps: On January 15 2013 04:36 Lazermonkey wrote: My reads being terrible in your eyes aren't exactly alignment indicative, right? I may have rephrased myself bad. I did read the thread but I did play a game of HoN in the mean time. That is why the post that isn't actually very long + the fact that the thread was like 20 pages yesterday took me almost 2 hours. Once again you do this, you say my case is bad, yet you don't even mention ONE thing in it that is bad as well as not explaining what part of my play that haven't been similar to LVIII. That, my friend, is bad. Lazer commits himself to the "I've read the thread and I caught up". His filter does in fact read like he'd caught up. Hapa is full of it, and is casually dismissing Lazer? as a "coin-flip" in order to push confirmed-town Promethelax. Ruuch comes in and draws fire, followed closely thereafter by: On January 15 2013 09:07 Hapahauli wrote: Welp. Sorry prome =/ Ruuch, you need to tell us why that was not a scumclaim. WHAT WHAT WHAT!? SS gets prickly at Hapa for being loud and obnoxious. Note that Hapa hadn't really commented on SS for most of Day 1. He was constantly badgering him with questions and argued with Prom a bit about how Prom dropped his SS-scumread. He had a really wishy-washy post about his read of SS: On January 14 2013 09:11 Hapahauli wrote: Xat is the guy I'm most interested in right now. It looks like he's blending in with his vote on a random lynch-bait case (Jay) rather than being productive and scumhunting. I have very conflicting reads on SS, but I'm leaning town on him. Thrawn mentioned that he was a dick in his scum-game in LVIII, but his play seems really over the top for scum. I hate how he's playing it out, but it looks suicidal from a scum-perspective, since he's so willingly ready to make enemies in the thread. My concern is that he's supposedly an accomplished vet, and I'd expect more from him. However, the OMGUS and violence of his play is indicative of a pissed-off townie. As far as other reads, I'm more concerned with players avoiding the spotlight right now. Ruuch peace'd out of the thread and we haven't heard of him for almost a Day. He is a newbie, but he took a lengthy absence from the thread and has had nothing to contribute to the discussion. Otherwise, nothing very concrete. The amount of time spent asking SS the same questions, and still arriving at a townread looks suspicious. Follow that up with his pursuit of "You lynched for information, you must be scum" and Hapa looks more and more like scum, especially now that SS has flipped town. Now we arrive at the TUNNEL OF HOPELESSNESS: Initial Case, as part of a nice long list post: + Show Spoiler + On January 16 2013 07:15 Hapahauli wrote: Was going to post this closer to the deadline, but I desperately need sleep and I'll likely be out for several hours. GL HF, and hopefully I'll see you on the other side of the deadline. Bolded Green = Strong town-read Green = slight-to-moderate town-read Black/Bolded = Null Red = Suspicious, needs to get looked into Bolded Red = Scum Thrawn - Thrawn has played two scum-games (Mafia LVIII, Mario Mini Mafia), in which he was lurky and really tried to avoid attention. In this game, his activity as well as his voting-shenanigans early in the game are strongly-indicative of a town thrawn. He's not trying to blend in, and his early-game actions match up very well with his recent town-games. MrZentor - He's generally very scared of posting and very self-conscious about his image when he's scum. He's the polar opposite this game. He's playing incredibly similar to his previous two town games (British Mini + Witchcraft Mini), and is even more active and fearless than in those games. WBG - A mix of gut-feeling and the fact that all his posts have made sense. I really liked his post breaking down the votes... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=392955¤tpage=43#854 ... and there are certain posts in his filter that look too attention-grabbing to be from a scum player, notably: WBG is a damn-good scum player, so there's certainly a possibility that he is doing what he's doing as scum. I don't think that's the case though. Jaybrundage - Like MrZ, activity is very indicative of Jay's allignment. He's lurk-tastic as scum, but much more open and active as town. He passes the activity test for now, and all his behavior so far seems really typical of town Jay. I'll be worried if he stops posting, but it's unlikely he's scum based on his behavior so far. SloOsh - Probably a slight town-read on the basis that he's making sense and has been assertive about his reads. He did make the initial case on Promethelax on Day 1, but I agreed with it at the time and it didn't seem malicious. He's lurkier than I would like, but that's not a reason to lynch him. I'm interested to see his reads tonight. As WBG said, best to read him based on what cases he's pushing. SuperSoft - I'm torn on his pre-lynch actions. On the one hand, him voting for Promethelax looks really bad, and he seems more obsessed with shooting his SK read rather than the people he's convinced are scum. However, he's an arrogant asshole, and I can rationalize a lot of this from said town mentality. His attitude on Prome for example... ... if anyone can think like that as town, it's probably SuperSoft. I'm generally worried about him because he's supposedly a good player, and then proceeds to vote a town read, and he seems more obsessed with killing the SK than his actual scumreads. I don't see a reason why he's not calling a vigi shot on the guy he's convinced is scum (Lazer). grush - Is grush. I gave my thoughts earlier on him: Iamperfection - Replacement gets a blank slate. Also pretty happy with this development, considering that iamp has a really easily distinguished scum/town meta. If you see him clam up and have difficulty posting frequently and openly, he's scum. If he's super-spammy, he's town. Xatalos - Also very lynch-baity. I have very conflicting reads on him. He's more active than I've seen him in British Mini Mafia. At the same time, I haven't been thrilled with his Day 1 contributions. I tried to look in more detail through his town meta to see if I could pin down why he could be scum this game, and I can't find anything super-convincing about his alignment one way or the other. I need to see some more reads from him before I make a decision. He's a pretty wishy-washy guy regardless of alignment, so be careful with this one. Lazer - I've been looking over his "scumslip" for some time now. First off, I don't think a slip like that is damning by any measure. Townies can butcher wordings and do stupid things all the time. It's a really really bad idea to lynch him only based on his "slip." That being said, I'm leaning scum on him for the behavioral oddities in his defense (as thrawn pointed out): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=392955¤tpage=45#896 And given how Supersoft worded his "hey scumteam, shoot Hapa" post, it's unlikely that Lazer simply misread things. I do think it's POSSIBLE though, so handle with care. Hopeless - His pre-lynch are extremely scummy. Hopeless shows a shocking level of lynch-apathy that is completely at odds with his town mentality. He votes lazermonkey here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=392955¤tpage=28#552 This is individually fine and dandy, but then there's this post on Promethelax: If he gives a town-read on Prome, what is even the point of the bolded section? He doesn't attempt to discredit that viewpoint or even qualify it. He piles suspicion on Prome then gives an arbitrary town-read on him at the end of it. After that, he doesn't attempt to push lazer at all. When he does, he questions Lazer about his Jay read. He wants Lazer to convince him that Jay is scum, rather than pushing through the Lazer lynch. Then he stops pushing Lazer and begins pushing MrZ: Then FINALLY, when he's confronted for not pushing the Lazer lynch: He replies sarcastically and is annoyed by the fact that he should be posting a scumread. So Hopeless's play can be characterized by: 1) Not pushing his scumreads 2) Being remarkably unconcerned that his town read is getting lynched (and soft-pushing the Prome lynch) 3) Flinging shit at OTHER players rather than being concerned with the lynch (namely MrZ) Most importantly, make sure you look at Hopeless's town games. Page 3 of his filter in Mario Mini Mafia: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381440&user=123725¤tpage=3 Hell the entirety of his ChronoTrigger mafia play (as town) is night and day compared to his play this game. I need not pick specific examples, just read it. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=382922&user=123725 The big things I want to respond to are: My "piling suspicion" on Prom: - Yes, it did look bad. Prom "invented" reasons to unvote SS, but guess what, they BOTH flipped town. The way I saw it, Prom either found town-traits from meta-reading SS, or he never wanted to push him in the first place. I didn't know which one, but the way that Prom held onto his 'another dude, to talk about later', I felt his case on SS was more to draw attention than to push a scumread. Improper use of meta, which Hapa acknowledges himself: + Show Spoiler + On January 17 2013 05:27 Hapahauli wrote: Yes I did. However that's only one game out of the multitude of his recent town games in which he played very aggressively. In addition, I can't rationalize his stance on iamp from a town perspective: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=392955¤tpage=52#1022 Votes Ruuch, afks for the entire night cycle, comes back and says he thinks iamperfection is town for no reasoning, then proceeds to make arguments against me based on the "assumption" of iamp being town. Furthermore, he stated that he didn't understand my reasoning for voting Ruuch, which is incredibly scummy considering that he voted Ruuch himself. He keeps coming back to that "assumption", its like going "SCUMSLIP, KILL IT", it isn't meaningful. My assumption doesn't portray a scum motive or mindset (in my heavily biased opinion). He also IGNORED a game where my current play matched closer to a more recent game, but dismissed it. I feel that Hapa would have pointed out the similarities and explained why he felt I was scummier overall, instead of skating over (or completely disregarding) my town-play in other games that match this one. On January 17 2013 02:53 Hapahauli wrote: No guys, we're lynching Hopeless today. Not SloOsh. How could he assume that someone is town? It makes no sense from a town perspective. He can't be the cop with a green check on iamp, since the cop is dead. Can't be mason buddies with iamp, since this happened: Solution? Hopeless is scum. He went from: a) Voting Ruuch b) Unsubstantiated town read on Iamp: c) Assumes that iamp is town. @ Iamp MrZ is lurk-tastic as scum. He is not lurk-tastic here. I got a very strong town feel for MrZ in the early game when he was driving a majority of the discussion. In his scum games, he very deliberately tries to avoid the spotlight. His early-game play is the opposite of that mentality. Furthermore, everything you mentioned above is the exact same thing he's done in his last two town games (Witchcraft + British Mini), both of which I was in. This is the exact same pattern, and I strongly believe he's town. As for him "wanting to change his meta," he was more active in the early game and generated more discussion than in any game I've been in with him. That's townie to me. Hapa pulls this word "assume" and makes an ass out of himself. If I don't have information and I need to get to a conclusion, I make an assumption, state that assumption, and continue with my argument. In this case, that assumption was that a player in the game (Ruuch/iamperfection) was town. I had reasoning for that read and while not concrete, it lent credence to my read against Hapa and just generally made sense to me. Ruuch did not read as scum, both from the way he posted at the end of Day 1 and how he swiftly replaced out. Hapa pounces on this hard, not to defend himself against my accusation, but to tear down my credibility by saying my argument holds no weight due to the fact that I made an assumption in the first place. By the way, another list post On January 17 2013 03:48 Hapahauli wrote: If I had to pick two right now, I'd say SloOsh/Grush I have reasons to think everyone else is town. Iamperfection is being active and open, which is indicative of his town-play (especially this early after replacing in). Whether or not he sustains this activity will be how I ultimately read him, but so far he's being townie. Jay is also more active than I'd expect from his scum-play. MrZ is also being active and open. The things that people find "scummy" about him (early town reads, lack of pushing reads) are completely normal for his town-play. It's the attention-grabbing in the early-game that really makes me think he's town. The early town-reads, him drawing attention to himself through his activity... these aren't things that scum MrZ does. Xata is gunning for you WBG, and I find that horrendously brave for a scum to do. Especially for him. Lazer was pushed by Hopeless for most of the game. Outside his "slip" or whatever, I can't find any reasons that he's scum. Thrawn's early game voting and attention grabbing is indicative of his town play. And you WBG have been one of the more active and concerned players in recent days. CHECK THAT OUT! Remember the last list post? The one where he found a reason OTHER than the scumslip to suspect Lazer? Go look, I'll wait. .... ... .. + Show Spoiler + Yeah I thought you'd be lazy, so here you go: Lazer - I've been looking over his "scumslip" for some time now. First off, I don't think a slip like that is damning by any measure. Townies can butcher wordings and do stupid things all the time. It's a really really bad idea to lynch him only based on his "slip." That being said, I'm leaning scum on him for the behavioral oddities in his defense (as thrawn pointed out): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=392955¤tpage=45#896 And given how Supersoft worded his "hey scumteam, shoot Hapa" post, it's unlikely that Lazer simply misread things. I do think it's POSSIBLE though, so handle with care. That's reverse connection analysis to defend a sucmbuddy people. Here's some more if you don't believe me: On January 17 2013 03:26 Hapahauli wrote: My first concern is seeing Hopeless hang, and then we'll find the rest. SloOsh could be scum based on how he handled himself last night (flinging shit at you, willingness to compromise on Hopeless), but I'm not convinced. As for a 3rd, I have no idea. I was originally thinking Lazer, but given how hard Hopeless decided to push him, I don't think that's realistic. + Show Spoiler + On January 17 2013 10:05 Hapahauli wrote: This is a really really good question. Why did you vote for Ruuch? Let's examine things. You voted him because you thought he had more chance to flip scum than Prom. This would imply that you had a really really strong town-read on Prom. Your strong town-read? You were leaning town on Prom. You had a weak town-read on Prom. Yet despite "leaning town" on Prome, you adopted a stance of being willing to lynch pretty much anyone but him. You knew he was going to flip town, and you distanced yourself from his lynch. But once again, if you had a town-read on Prome, what's the purpose of all the bolded stuff? You had a town-read on Prome, yet half of your post flung shit at him. None of that makes any sense. You still have not explained how you arrived at your town-read on Iamp. In fact I can't for the life of me figure out how you garnered a strong-enough townread on, given that Iamp had made 11 posts at the time you gave him a town-read. And it's not a weak town-read either - it's apparently strong enough to make you "assume" he's town in your analysis. That's complete bullshit. I put forth the question about why Hapa and I voted for Ruuch. He takes the opportunity to shit all over me, but refrains from commenting on his own reasoning (See Spoiler above). Thanks for putting words in my mouth, Hap. On January 18 2013 04:56 Hapahauli wrote: @ Lazer Can you explain how you changed your reads though? Telling us that you "re-evaluated" doesn't do much, especially when you voted WBG on Day 1, and are so willing to follow him right now. I can't figure out where your town-read on WBG came from. You went from this on Day 1/Night 1: To your town-read today: ...and you never give any explanation for it in your filter. Oh shit you guys, he's getting ready to bus Lazer, watch out. You know what else is cool? Lazer has a townread on ME. HAHA SOMEONE READS ME AS TOWN OMFG! Hapa doesn't want to discuss that with Lazer? Also, funny sidenote, I told Hapa to go away: And he did. trololol. P.S. My vote is still on Hapa. I'll move it to Lazer if that would appease anyone. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
Current players alive:
Known Flips:
(SETUP SPECULATION) Based on the Flips, the Mafiascum C9++ setup should be: MM - Thrawn + MrZentor - Masons CC - Supersoft - Cop MMCC??T - 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer MMCCTTT - Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer These are the only ways to get an SK with the number of power roles flipped. This isn't all that useful right now, especially with the loss of 1-shot roles/somewhat hidden setup, but this is what I've been doing in the meantime, so why not. I guess it locks in the # scum at 3? And if a GF flips, there should be no more blues. (/SETUP SPECULATION) 6v3 at the moment, if we lynch town today, we're likely to be at 4v3 LYLO tomorrow. At present, my reads are: Town Hopeless1der grush57 jaybrundage wherebugsgo iamperfection MrZentor Scum Hapahauli Lazermonkey Xatalos | ||
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iamperfection
United States9639 Posts
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On January 20 2013 00:37 iamperfection wrote: They would have had to hold roleblock for hapa to be scum correct? Yes | ||
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iamperfection
United States9639 Posts
That is unlikely. Hapa would be a bad pick for scums late game player. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On January 20 2013 00:48 iamperfection wrote: That is unlikely. Hapa would be a bad pick for scums late game player. Perhaps unlikely, but not out of the question. Consider what Hapa has actually contributed to this game: Prom and SS were town but he pushed them as scumreads, he wanted nothing to do with slOosh's lynch, instead he has been tunneling me for a very long time. If/when I flip town, what happens? | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
The scum pretty much have to be between grush, Lazer, Hopeless, and jay. I really don't think they anticipated shooting a mason. | ||
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iamperfection
United States9639 Posts
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On January 20 2013 02:11 iamperfection wrote: I found it funny that you used the word if hopeless Theres always the chance I don't flip at all until endgame. | ||
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iamperfection
United States9639 Posts
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On January 20 2013 03:14 iamperfection wrote: The way you used in that sentence made it sound like if your town There's no scumslip in there. I might be bad, but I'm not that bad. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Mr. Cheesecake
United States3756 Posts
On January 20 2013 03:43 Hopeless1der wrote: Guys, you know its daytime right? You're allowed to post.... Votecount: Hopeless1der (5): Hapahauli, Xatalos, iamperfection, grush57, jaybrundage Hapahauli (1): Hopeless1der Not Voting (3): Lazermonkey, wherebugsgo, MrZentor Currently, Hopeless1der is set to be lynched! More than 24 hours remaining until deadline.  | ||
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