EPTOk, so your problem is that I seem sure with my cases,
How do you present your cases?
Newbie Mini Mafia XXXV - Page 30
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
Ok, so your problem is that I seem sure with my cases, How do you present your cases? | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
Mocsta could have just as easily answered yes/no Do you think Mocsta woudve answered just yes/no? I didnt think so and he didnt. | ||
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Spaghetticus
Australia451 Posts
@Sn0 While I have a deep appreciation for your contribution, please refrain from making association cases until someone has flipped scum. It's just not efficient to go through the ramifications of every possibility until you actually have something to go on, and this method is incredibly prone to confirmation bias. This is the general consensus of experienced town players, and while I usually have a hard time swallowing the shit they spit out, I really do agree with this bit of wisdom. I look forward to your continued contribution :D gnight | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
On January 15 2013 02:08 Sn0_Man wrote: So my takeaways are: A) Laguerta really should have been lynched. B) He was, in fact, defended by the mafia: Trotske C) Trotske is my lead scum read. I feel like your arguments involve a lot of association-before-flip, which can lead to confirmation bias. The reason I say this is because your argument for Trotske as being your lead scum read is based on the assumption that Laguerta is scum. If you're already assuming Laguerta is scum, why isn't Laguerta your lead scum read? | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
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OmniEulogy
Canada6592 Posts
On January 15 2013 02:24 Oatsmaster wrote: Nice disguising the OMGUS case on me Omni. Ok, so your problem is that I seem sure with my cases, How do you present your cases? Ummm like this + Show Spoiler + On January 15 2013 02:00 OmniEulogy wrote: Final Vote Count! Mandalor (3) - Trotske, glurio, Mocsta, Mocsta, Oatsmaster Laguerta (2) - Mandalor, Shz, Mocsta, Zarepath, Oatsmaster, OmniEulogy, glurio zebezt (2) - Acid~, Oatsmaster Oatsmaster (2) - zarepath, OmniEuology, Mocsta Sn0_Man (1) - Zebezt, Trotske, Mocsta Mocsta (1) - Sn0_Man, Oatsmaster bringaniga (0) - shz, Oatsmaster, Mandalor, Laguerta shz (0) - OmniEulogy Acid~ (0) - Zarepath, OmniEulogy No-Lynch (1) - Laguerta My case on OatsMaster. I was trying to write this up with 20 minutes left during D1, couldn't find the right words / was too pressured and feel like I left it unfinished. I want to explain why I voted for him, my thoughts behind it and why I believe it still makes sense after this lynch. I'll start off at the very beginning, his strange approach to the start of the game. + Show Spoiler + On January 13 2013 00:52 Oatsmaster wrote: Mocsta stop being useless and repeating what other people have already said. On January 13 2013 00:55 Oatsmaster wrote: Question 1. How does a yes/no question start discussion? Thats right, it doesnt. Question 2. How is that relevant in a game of Newbies where everyone is just trying to provide an answer that may not be accurate. Question 3. Please dont mention pool. Again. Instead of answering any of the questions, he deflects them and then becomes defensive, saying "2. I really dont want to answer that. Because I dont think my answer will help town in any way." after being asked about it again. He still refuses to discuss how scum would possibly go about playing this game. I highly doubt it's because he thinks they will use his idea's. I believe it is because he doesn't want us to know how he is going to play scum. This is speculation but should be taken into consideration. Especially considering the massive double standard he sets when accusing Mocsta in the early D1 hours. He attacks Mocsta for asking a question that could potentially be a yes/no question. NOBODY would answer Mocsta's question with a yes/no and get away with it, I don't believe its a town mindset to answer questions like Mocsta's with yes/no answers. Then we have this. + Show Spoiler + On January 13 2013 19:16 Oatsmaster wrote: Turning around and calling him scum for everything he's posted though without any real facts I really dont know what real facts your need to have before you lynch. A scumslip? You leave both of those open to 1 word answers. Just in case you don't know... Hypocrisy: Noun Do you think that Mocsta would answer those with 1 word? Exactly. Its all about context. That's a hard one... not answering questions and getting so defensive to the point of making a terrible case How was I defensive? I didnt even see the FoS before I posted the case as I mentioned above. Ok Omni, What scum reads do you have? He talks about not having any facts before a D1 lynch which is complete bullshit. As we found out there were many things to take into consideration during our D1 lynch. Next up, asks Mocsta two Yes/No questions. Gets Extremely defensive about doing it and says its about context. Wrong. Mocsta could have just as easily answered yes/no and been asked a ton of follow up questions, he didn't because it would be a dumb thing to do, just like the opening questions which Oats never answered fully. Lastly (and for the 2nd time this game) He asks for somebody elses reads after barely answering any concerns about him and deflecting. He claims scumslip but in reality He's already said "let me tell you why you are scum" to Mocsta. That confidence... with no facts he sure does know what alignment people are. "Also, with your current level of activity, and the way you defended yourself. ##Unvote HOWEVER I really dont like the way you are going around buddying everybody and keep referring to yourself as an excellent town player. " He backs off Mocsta as he realizes that nobody else is getting on this train and he's running out of fuel to throw at him, I don't recall Mocsta ever claiming himself to be an excellent town player either. His next post is this one + Show Spoiler + On January 13 2013 20:49 Oatsmaster wrote: Ok posters with little to no content laguerta Trotske Acid~ glurio Posters that seem to be trolling the shit out of the thread Bringniga ##Vote: bringaniga Its less than 12 hours to lynch and I know that you are active. Please contribute in a manner that will help town Either we lynch them, or lynch an active player. Also, in case you guys didnt read the OP or dont know, its plurality lynch so the person with the most votes at the end of the day will get lynched. THEREFORE there is no need to consolidate to lynch. HOWEVER town should consolidate in order to prevent scum from being able to affect the final vote with a last minute vote switch He goes after somebody I have kept my eye on as a potential for SCUM to try and lynch. Shz has already voted for him out of anger at this point making him an "easy" target. There are many other players who are lurking worse than Bringaniga at this point, AND bringaniga has said repetitively that he will be releasing cases in the future. Everything he has said I could see a very subtle town undertone and his actions make it unlikely for him to be scum. Oats also does exactly what he accused Mocsta of being scum for. He highlights all of the lurkiest players before voting on Bringaniga. Except he doesn't mention anything about them other than that they are lurking. No other insight at all. He starts to go after lurkers with very basic questions that don't probe too deep, accusing Mandalor after he finally becomes active by saying "Manadalor, what makes you different from laguerta and Trotske? As far as I can see you have been about as active as them" The largest difference between Mandalor and them is that he has shared his thoughts and explained exactly why he was not active up to this point. Oats realizes his lynch on Bringaniga is no longer sticking, I've raised my own concerns about him and start to draw attention to players that would vote for him, most people agree he seems town and will not vote for him depending on how he acts for the rest of D1. Oats again switching his targets realizing Bringaniga is no longer a viable option. + Show Spoiler + On January 14 2013 08:21 Oatsmaster wrote: Mandalor, what changed from earlier? You were not even close to active this time of the day yesterday. So, basically apart from trolling, you want to lynch a lurker which gives us 0 information. Umm you want to lynch a lurker too, laguerta.. ##Unvote ##Vote: Mandalor You too [spolier] ##Unvote ##Vote: laguerta Explain your vote. Now. Mandalor has made a few mistakes, explaining his top scum reads as "easy" lynches. but it is true that he always stuck with Laguerta as one of his top reads. Oats uses this regardless to jump to Mandalor, using his position as a lurker for the first half of D1 and poor explanation of his vote as reasons. Again Oats does not wait for the play accused to defend himself first, he votes and then waits for the defense AND gauges the response from everybody else to see if a wagon will form on the target. Zebezt makes some comments against Sn0_man and Oats So far I don't have a scum read on Zebezt, I am leaning slightly towards town. He's already said this is his first game, and I'm quite pleased with the little amount he has brought to the table. Oats attacks him for sheeping Mocsta and for Zebezt pressuring him which is exactly what town is supposed to do, take people they think are suspicious and try to apply pressure. Again Oats becomes overly defensive and lashes out at him. Soft claims he's scum by saying "mafia QT must be taking about it" in regards to Kush being found to be Bringaniga. I know Oats has obs/played many games. The fact that he claims he didn't know what would happen to Bringaniga is unbelievable to me. I believe this is his attempt to soft claim town and I'm not buying it. I believe he is setting up another target (Zebezt) on the off chance Mandalor doesn't work out. We then have On January 14 2013 08:33 Oatsmaster wrote: Mocsta, If I wrote the post Acid wrote, what would you do? A useless post with no point. Mocsta attacked Acid for his post already. Soon after, the Mandalor wagon that looked like it was taking off gets stopped. Nobody else is joining it and other players are starting to look much scummier, players are discussing the lurkers and how suspicious Laguerta is. + Show Spoiler + On January 14 2013 10:10 Oatsmaster wrote: I dont think lynching Mocsta is a good idea today. ##Unvote ##Vote: laguerta Mandalor, you get a pass today but you better start scumhunting. Since that you dont need to defend yourself anymore. The fourth vote during D1. It's starting to look like he doesn't care who gets lynched. He votes for Laguerta because of his no-lynch (I assume, it's never really stated). He begins to back track on Laguerta as I have shown my unwillingness nearly the entire time up to the point where I finally cave when I realize Laguerta has lied about his no-lynch policy. With so little information I find this very incriminating and convince Mocsta on board with it as well. Oats claims scum is always around at the deadline from his past experience. Is this past experience in his game as scum? I've played three games so far and its fairly random if scum will be there during the lynch or not. I've had 1 there in both games, two not there in my 1st game and 1 never there in my 2nd. I think this might be a scum slip, although Zare made a joke about it and its faulty logic, I believe it was a subconscious slip. He then follows up with What?! You just said... scum is always around near the lynch... Do you know their alignment or something? You can pick which players who are around at the time of the lynch are scummy or not? It doesn't make sense. There are so many contradictions. This post is another one that bothers me, You just finished saying Laguerta is not scum, you just finished saying if you have a scum read PUSH for them hard. Saying "go ahead and vote for Laguerta but I KNOW Zebezt is scum" makes no sense! You don't care who gets lynched. You softly imply you know Zebezt's alignment again... this is the third time you've done this. + Show Spoiler + On January 14 2013 12:58 Oatsmaster wrote: Constant vote jumping? Voting 3 players in a 15 hour span is called constant vote jumping. Right. I am reasonably sure because Zebezt has scum motivation for posting how he does. I voted laguerta cause lying is bad, but upon reading his filter, I feel that he is newbie town/null. Why does it matter how many people you voted for in a 15 hour time span? It matters how many people you have voted for over all... I don't care if you've only voted for 3 people in 15 hours. You have voted for 5 players during D1. Without a good reason on any of them. Without explaining why you were suddenly switching. I looked over the votes and who they were on for nearly the entire last 20 minutes and noticed that 4 of your 5 votes were on the "easiest" targets. Players who all had the potential to be lynched if people started to make cases on them. Most people voted for at least two of them. You hit all of them. This is not town oriented play. This is scum looking to hide in the crowd. Warning: Confirmation bias / Association case. + Show Spoiler + This is where I started to lose my mind so close to the deadline and noticed something I wish I hadn't. It is the sole reason I hadn't been able to get my case out on time. Oats defends Sn0, Sn0 and Oats attacked mocsta, Zebezt voted for Sn0, Oats finds Zebezt scummy for reasons that he is active but not contributing a whole lot. Plus he set his vote to lynch Zebezt up earlier when Zebezt made a comment about Sn0 being the scummiest player. Oats asks Sn0 a REALLY odd question with + Show Spoiler + On January 14 2013 12:38 Oatsmaster wrote: Mocsta, you are confirmation biased. I dont think Sno is scummy for attacking you, it created conversation which was a good thing and I had similar concerns as him. How stupid is it as scum to vote you? Sno-man, why are you voting Mocsta? Is it because you dont like him? Or because he is scum? Does this indicate Oats believes Mocsta is still scum? Is he leading Sn0 to be able to leave that option open to him? + Show Spoiler + I HIT BACK INSTEAD OF ENTER AND ALMOST DELETED THIS WHOLE THING HOLY SHIT. Also I'm aware that my last paragraph is confirmation biased to hell, an association case, and just all around things you NEVER want to do... but I saw it and I can not unsee  [/spoiler] If you don't feel like addressing anything seriously though, keep at it. | ||
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OmniEulogy
Canada6592 Posts
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
I'll quote it for ease: On January 14 2013 10:36 Trotske wrote: I don't think laguerta is scum you guys are pushing a lynch claiming scum when he looks a lot more like a bad townie with no experience and is lazy. what is with this bandwagon on someone who might as well be a lurker In fact a lurker would be a better lynch. I am going to keep my vote on the person who started this ridiculous vote. Even if he is right, and laguerta is just a bad townie, that post... Scum want to preserve the bad townies over the good ones I guess. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
On January 15 2013 03:00 OmniEulogy wrote: I really suck at doing that properly... I need to use preview more =/ Yeah, I started re-reading the un-spoilered part and going, "Hmm, I think he already made this point before. Oh wait, he did."  | ||
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zebezt
185 Posts
On January 15 2013 01:20 Spaghetticus wrote: I am voting someone from Zebezt down. So one of: Sweet! I'm the new Grubby line :D PS: don't worry I'll post more later. | ||
shz
Germany2687 Posts
@Sno, since laguerta is on the bench for now, who would you vote for? | ||
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zebezt
185 Posts
Seeing how Oats actually voted for so many different people.. I dont know if that is actually scummy. If I were scum I wouldnt wanna antagonize so many people and just wait until I could bandwagon one or two players. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
On January 15 2013 03:33 shz wrote: Spag, you are confirming Omni based on a meta-read? In a newbie game? I don't think that is very clever. @Sno, since laguerta is on the bench for now, who would you vote for? Currently Trotske but I'm going thru filters ATM. If I spot anything interesting I'll throw it out here. I'd love to be rid of glurio as well but I don't think town has enough lynches left to do stuff like that (policy lynches) and still get all the mafia. Pretty much everybody else has made SOME kind of contribution. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
Thanks. | ||
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zebezt
185 Posts
On January 14 2013 17:19 Oatsmaster wrote: Since I disliked his playing style I hoped for a modkill So you dont think that he would be useful? Losing town members is never good, so do you think Acid and Glurio should be modkilled too? Scum want to reduce the number of townies, town wants all the townies to be useful. Zebezt sounds like scum. This is just sad. First the fact that shz seems to think you are talking to him and then you reply to him as if you did actually mean him... :D second.. your argument sucks. Did ANYONE think bringaniga was useful the way he was playing? I dont think so. At that point in time bringaniga was set to be lynched. If he gets modkilled he can be replaced with someone useful. How is this bad for town? Since he got modkilled and replaced we had a chance to lynch someone that actually looked scummy instead of just playing badly. Unfortunately people seemed to switch to the wrong person... still this got us more info than killing bringaniga would have most likely. | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
3 hours left on those night actions! Make sure that you pm your actions to all three hosts, just to make sure one of us gets the action. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
Shz + Show Spoiler + Null read. Point for him is that he kind of tried to pull Oats and Mocsta apart from each other early on, and I think scum would have been happy for them to go at it. Although, that's an easy thing for scum to do. Meanwhile, a lot of his posts are very emotional or exagerrative, using words and phrases like "constantly," "baffled how people," "just that ignorant?", and he's obsessed with Mocsta's victim mentality. Another point for him is he's encouraged rational play a couple of times in the thread. Will watch. Laguerta + Show Spoiler + He just seems very rough, and very inactive, but not in a tone that seems to imply intended inactivity, but one of pure laziness. It's clear he did not work very hard at his contributions Day 1, and that, combined with the ease of the Laguerta Lynch, suggests to me that he is TOWN. Sn0_Man + Show Spoiler + His inactivity immediately puts him on the side of scum, then he has a full "review post" of the chaotic final hour of the lynch. His cases have not been rigorous, his biggest case (against Troske) involves a lot of association and hypothetical scenarios. But he's the only one really pushing Troske and it does seem like he's trying to figure things out. I don't see enough to put him firmly in one camp or the other, so I consider him someone to watch. Oats + Show Spoiler + I voted for him yesterday, but after going through his filter today, he oddly seems to be the most valuable townie we have right now. He has pressured more people than anyone else, which HAS led to discussion. I don't see scum motivations for his behavior other than the free use of his voting power, and erratically switching it around until he finally liked where it rested. That seems to fit with his play style, however, so I don't think that is enough for a scum read, even along with the fact that he was immediately aggressive towards Mocsta -- that seems to be a trend in this game, and it's not necessarily unwarranted. Feels like TOWN Mocsta + Show Spoiler + Has been as active as I would expect based on his meta, but he is a lot more defensive this time around. After reading filters, I would suggest that's because there are people here deliberately pushing his buttons. It's frustrating how his various defenses clutter the thread and half the time are filled with re-quotes of himself or others, and then there's also the fact that his vote sealed Mandalor's doom. However, I don't find it likely that mafia would switch their vote so that the FINAL vote for a lynch is one of their own. That does not seem like good scum play -- although as I noted earlier, if he were scum and resting his vote on Laguerta even after Oats yelled at him, that may look more suspicious. Perhaps he HAD to vote for Mandalor. However, he'd already suspected Mandalor earlier in the day. So I would not call him a confirmed town, but I still have an overall TOWN read on him. OmniEulogy + Show Spoiler + OE has largely been a voice of reason this game when the last game he seemed a lot more emotional. Part of me worries that he was intending to be reasonable as soon as he becomes mafia, but his contributions have all been town-motivated from my perspective. He has pressured people, defended others fairly well, and done some thorough analysis. I have a slight TOWN read on him. Trotske + Show Spoiler + I like that he called Acid out on trying to provoke emotion in the thread, as well as Snoman, and that he was the first on Mandalor (even though he was obviously wrong, he didn't a ride a bandwagon on the way there, unlike some others). He reads as a noob, and went out of his way to defend Mocsta's opening questions near the beginning. However, he has a low post count, went out of his way to criticize bringaniga multiple times (easiest target for the first half of the day), and just had bad voting logic (as snoman pointed out recently). He feels TOWN to me, but will warrant observation as he posts more and hopefully does some more analysis. Acid + Show Spoiler + Acid is very confident, and when he posts, it doesn't seem as though he's lurked as much as he has. However, everything he's posted has been very narrow-focused and antagonistic -- needlessly so. What gets me is his comment that Mocsta can't ask him any questions until Mocsta contributes more. Withholding information is pretty scummy, and his tunneling of Mocsta, the most active townie when we have around 5 lurkers, seems exactly like the kind of thing scum would want to do. It's not hard to push Mocsta's buttons and he's not alone in going after him, so it's a pretty safe thing to do. His reactions lack rigor; he's "baffled" by sno's vote. The number one thing that makes me think he is mafia is the fact that the time he was tunneling Mocsta the hardest was during the final hours before the lynch, when everyone is switching their votes, analyzing cases, trying to make new reads. What is Acid up to? Tunneling Mocsta, when Mocsta is nowhere near a lynch. He's not even trying to get others to vote for Mocsta, he's just going after him. Reads as SCUM to me. zebezt + Show Spoiler + He also called out unwarranted hostility in the thread, which is a town-motivated thing to do, but then suggested that other people ask questions instead. He didn't provide the questions, just said that other people should. He did a fairly interesting analysis of snoman and actually asked some discussion Q's of some people, which feels kind of townish. But he was one of those to take the easy road in pressuring bringaniga, he soft claimed on not having read scum guides, went out of his way to mention that someone would be modkilled (a non-contribution with no analysis), and went out of his way to take credit for his pressure on bringaniga earlier in the day (even though it was the easiest target in the world). I have a slight SCUM read on him. glurio + Show Spoiler + He calls Mandalor scum but he's "not quite certain" after reading the filter -- an accusation without committing to the accusation. He easy-picks Laguerta, lurks hardcore, continues to be suspicious of Mandalor without providing analysis or voting for him, calls Oats scummy a couple times without any analysis other than the fact that he's voted a lot (I did that too, of course), but finally switches from Laguerta to Mandalor ONLY AFTER it's clear that the town is leaving Laguerta. If the LAguerta lynch happens and he's still on it, he knows he's in trouble, so the reasoning for his switch? "mafia doesn't defend" The timing was very suspect, and set things up such that Laguerta could still be lynched without his vote staying there, and if someone moved with him onto Mandalor, that person would get the fall (Mocsta). He's offered zero analysis, represented zero conviction with his votes, and his vote pattern looks the most suspicious to me of all of what happened yesterday. He also lurks hardcore. He is my number one SCUM read. bringaniga/Spag + Show Spoiler + I secretly hoped that bringaniga really had some algorithm because that would've been hilarious. Spag has seemed quite helpful since he's returned. AS this is essentially Day 1 for him, I have a NULL read until I see more, but nothing so far has smacked of scum. | ||
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Trotske
410 Posts
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Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On January 15 2013 06:24 zarepath wrote: I am posting all of my reads right now because I'd like to do so before the end of N1 and I'm not confident that I'll be around/have the time to do so closer to the deadline. These are reads, not full claims, and so I welcome any argument/discussion about them. But they're all based on me reading through the entire thread, and the entire filter for each person. Acid + Show Spoiler + Acid is very confident, and when he posts, it doesn't seem as though he's lurked as much as he has. However, everything he's posted has been very narrow-focused and antagonistic -- needlessly so. What gets me is his comment that Mocsta can't ask him any questions until Mocsta contributes more. Withholding information is pretty scummy, and his tunneling of Mocsta, the most active townie when we have around 5 lurkers, seems exactly like the kind of thing scum would want to do. It's not hard to push Mocsta's buttons and he's not alone in going after him, so it's a pretty safe thing to do. His reactions lack rigor; he's "baffled" by sno's vote. The number one thing that makes me think he is mafia is the fact that the time he was tunneling Mocsta the hardest was during the final hours before the lynch, when everyone is switching their votes, analyzing cases, trying to make new reads. What is Acid up to? Tunneling Mocsta, when Mocsta is nowhere near a lynch. He's not even trying to get others to vote for Mocsta, he's just going after him. Reads as SCUM to me. Sorry, but you've got this the wrong way around. It was Mocsta who refused to answer my questions. I didn't answer any of Mocsta's questions because he asked none. Quote: On January 14 2013 08:24 Mocsta wrote: Lol so u come in the thread after 40hrs of no post and start slinging shit. Why dont u start to earn some town cred before questioning myself and zebezt. U can start by addressing the questions i and others put forward to you in your prolonged absence. U will then be in a position where i can respond to your qustions. If you have any questions you want to ask me, fire away. Also, I was never tunneling Mocsta, I was pressuring him because we were both online at the same time and it was possible to have a little back and forth going. My number one scum read, and vote for the day was Zebezt, but Zebezt was not present to engage in conversation. I even said I was not accusing Mocsta, I just wanted him to explain some things. And finally, I was away most of the weekend, as I said previously - that doesn't mean I didn't read the thread when I came back. Why should I be any less confident than anyone else? Sorry, but I'm not playing this game like a popularity contest. I've made my case and no one has refuted it (not with rational arguments, in any case). The accused himself laughed it off without giving any sort of convincing defense. | ||
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