EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXXIV
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Spaghetticus
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These players all just played in the same game:- - Corazon - Mocsta - Omni - Spag - Sylencia Of which:- This is Corazon's second game, he has only got experience playing scum, which he did very well for the most part. This is Sylencia's third game. He played town last game fairly well, but was hindered by life commitments for the time I remained in the game. This is Omni's second game. Last game he played very aggressive as town. This is Mocsta's second(?) game. He played as enthusiastic pro-town, and was NKed for his positive contributions. This is my third game. First game I played standard town as cop. Second game I played as VT and was a little(lot!) too passive. I was lynched day one for not scumhunting, and in doing so saved their MVP scum player. I think I might dally with standard play once more to get my confidence back up :D My filters for all my games are: Spag's XXV filter and Spag's XXXIII filter @the following Jamp Zare Strix TeMiL Could you please give us a little information on your experience of TLmafia so far (including role and playstyle), and whether you have played outside of TL before. For those that are new, please at the very least skim through one or two of the guides provided, talk to the appropriate coach if you feel the need (you should), and inform us of any RL transgressions against the sanctity of TLMafia in advance of them actually occurring. DO NOT LURK. IDGAF WHO PLAYS SCUMMY I WILL BE VOTING THE LURKIEST PLAYER DAY ONE PERIOD. | ||
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Does that sound right for Tasmania Mocsta? You were the one from the mainland weren't you? my memory is terrible. Regardless, my sleep pattern is all mangled, I'm currently on my 26th sleepless hour. | ||
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I have the feeling Mocsta's contribution shall be substantial regardless (an educated guess). How much experience do you have? @Mocsta You are supposed to differentiate between lying scum and lying town by attributing motive to action. If I lie and don't have any plausible town explanation, I am scum (or terrible town). If I lie and only have possible town motives, I'm town (or intricately clever scum). If I lie and have both town and scum explanations for my behaviour, you need to infer the likelihood of the possibilities and arrive at your own understanding. This third option is not a null read in most instances, as town should strive to keep things simple (an thus not lie) unless they see a very good reason not to. Town should not lie without town motive, and part of that motive is not having their lie detected and blown out of proportion by hungry town and scum alike. | ||
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I've bumped up my lurker response to Code: Lynch. I was all about being flexible with interpretation before, but not any more (at least not for lurkers). My approach to lurkers is fresh for me, so you will not find it in my filter. My policy on liars remains the same. | ||
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Confirming oneself as town is not the only objective of town players, thus Mocsta should continue regardless of whether it confirms him as town or not. | ||
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Do scum get access to their private thread immediately or do they have a period of non-communication. I have seen a scum chat before but this detail eludes me. Are scum able to communicate right now? | ||
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I wouldn't be so certain about your read on Mocsta. This is exactly the way you would expect him to act if he rolled scum. He has a meta to conform to regardless of alignment. I have a near null read on him. | ||
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(2) I did not want to look at the OP. I chose to elucidate it out of laziness, but also because of the small potential to generate discussion. There was no downside in my mind. (3) Other scum behaviours? I popcorned if that's what you're talking about? I'll be more than willing to talk about that later. I also both supported and posted lists? I'm not sure if this question is empty or not. | ||
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I'm a pretty slack guy, this is not news. Is it not curious, at this early stage in the game. Spag ALREADY feels the need to distance himself from being town PERCEIVED as knowledgable in "scum behaviour". - MocstaI am relatively knowledgeable in scum behaviour. I am not knowledgeable about the specifics, though I was not trying to tell you this, I was merely asking for information. In no way am I claiming not to know about scum behaviour, as this would damage my ability to further my agenda whether I be town or scum. Your claim is wishful thinking or deliberate misinterpretation. | ||
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I hear it's going to be considerably hotter tomorrow, but that's in Tasmania. | ||
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In regard to your question to Omni: (1) You mentioned not lynching lurkers D1, instead town needs to actively scum hunt. Between myself and Spaghetticus; who do you think needs to be questioned first? Please lead the discussion. - MocstaThis is scummy. You know that Omni and I have a very different approach to mafia, and last game we both found it almost impossible to not see the other as scum (we were both town). You also know Omni has a tendency to bandwagon as town, and that between you and I the current atmosphere favours you over me (you haven't been called out, I have). By having attention brought upon both of us, you expect pressure to only be put on me. This post on it's own looks like you are trying to get someone else to set up the bandwagon for you, so you can remove responsibility from yourself when I flip town. This play in a void makes you look scummy IMO, however you do later offer yourself as a target of suspicion when rousing Zare: (2) If stuck on items to discuss, please direct any concerns you have over my play to me to address. - Mocsta In my eyes this goes some way to dilute your guilt, though not dismiss it. You know this is Zare's second game and that he has zero town experience. You do not expect him to be able to make a case on you, and up until your last post, there was no sign of one. By inviting people to scrutinize your play you have not taken a risk be you town or scum, but you have increased the pressure on me from other players, which is scummy. This is not mere rousing, you have lit a fire under people and slyly directed it at me. Just so it's clear, by "dilute your guilt", the second quote dilutes the first it by being closer to a null read, it is still half scummy. You have also been leaping on irrelevant details (from my perspective), inflating them beyond their importance. Soft claiming 'not scum' is far too crass a move for my style and you know it. I can see that you are doing everything you can to promote town activity, and I believe this is within what is reasonable to expect from you, so I won't call scum read on this. I would like to point out however, that picking on small and probably* meaningless discrepancies is a great scum tactic for promoting confusion, and so would suggest you lay off the UberHolmsing if you feel that the balance of probability dictates that you are more likely to mislead town. This is not a defense of my slip*. By all means, hammer me for the mistake I have already made (it was a mistake whether I be town or scum), but for the sake of town please consider the potential implications. I will now address your questions that were directed at me. | ||
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(1) What do you make of cDgCorazons play so far. What do you think of his reaction to my lynch vote? I assume you’re done with the questioning of Corazon for now? I like people to play things out before giving reads, allowing people the most opportunities to make mistakes. By asking for my response now, I take no responsibility for any decrease in pressure applied to Corazon. I assume you’ve moved on to me anyway. Corazon attacked your list making without thought for your motives, he assumed the only point of making the updates was to garner towncred, which is either log-headed or scummy. He was either too immersed in appearing town, and projected this motive (scummy), or is letting forum prejudice against lists colour his view, giving some easy content (spammy or unthinking). Your suspicion of Corazon’s waiting to give an answer was weak, I assume you just wanted to make sure you were pressuring (which is fine). His response was adequate, though I had a simpler explanation in mind (that he wanted people to develop their own opinions). Corozan’s reprimand on Zare is entirely expected, I believe I did precisely the same to OrangeRemi last game (I was town). Corazon then concludes that he gets a mild town read off of you (Mocsta). I have already stated my opinion on this (that it is an unfounded read). He later stated that he had a null read, whether this was because he was pressured to change, or he genuinely agreed, is still in question. So you would rather lynch a lurker than a strong scumread D1? Yes. Strong scum reads have already revealed a lot about themselves, and you can expect pressure on them later. Lurker scum have the opportunity to sit by and let the town destroy themselves, which is a well-known phenomenon in newbie games. From my perspective, which has changed over the course of my mafia career (this is my third game), there is no scummier behaviour than lurking. If a scum is lurking you have zero information on him day two. They have an entire 72 hours worth of chat to adjust their playstyle to. They are the most dangerous scum (second only to a scum that has managed to be confirmed town). If me or Mocsta were scum, come day two you would have a massive paper trail with which to track us down with. For that reason alone, there is no way I will be voting Mocsta day one. From what I’ve seen, newbie games are dictated almost entirely by lurkers and their allocation of alignment. XXXIII was won by town simply because scum was two lurkers out of three players that were so lazy they didn’t even attempt to defend themselves once the bandwagon came knocking. We had OrangeRemi modkilled, and Threesr replaced. For the sake of town getting a clear scumhunting environment, for what I see as a positive move towards town victory, and for my own enjoyment of the game, I will be voting the biggest lurker unless I somehow find a completely active game (damn unlikely). @Sylencia My LAL policy is not laziness. It is thought out, and I genuinely believe it to be the best policy for me to have. My enthusiasm for pondering conceptual queries knows no bounds, for scabbing up readily available info, not so much. How do you characterise your standard play? So far, your post count to post quality ratio is skewed heavily towards post count [NOT a good sign] My standard play is to actually post cases day one. My play last game was non-standard because through a mixture of laziness and curiosity, I attempted to get through day one by both being active and not scum hunting. It did not work. While I expect I will continue to tinker with this element of the game, I have scaled down my experimentation for the sake of my self-esteem (and town win-rate). You already know most of my meta from XXXIII. I am highly analytical and loathe posting accusations that imply a reality I do not believe. I adhere to theory over empiricism, which gives me difficulties with the more aggressive players. I play for the long game, and think little of the chance of day one scum lynches. I try to encourage town play through indirect means. I emphasise original content, and am strongly averse to bandwagoning and recycling opinions. I try to keep a flexible understanding of the game, but am having difficulties converting flexible thinking into anything but WIFOM (hence the LAL update). Admiting laziness is not a solid town trait Spag. You know this. Its not indicative of scum play either. You know this as well. As they cancel each other out, let us now consider your potential to generate "small discussion" due to Scum QT. What did you have in mind? Please lead this discussion. I did not have much in mind. I wanted to know about scum QT so that I’d know whether scum were organised or tentative. Generating discussion was the only foreseeable outcome, though it was not my motive. The information was for my own use (not discussion), any discussion that was generated would be in people picking me up for soft claiming town. A minor and non-committal scum trap if you will. I genuinely thought it was an entirely small deal, and anyone picking up on it would be making a mountain out of a mole-hill (something I still believe). Unfortunately, you (Mocsta) picked it up, and my read on your behaviour is that it is consistent with a town Mocsta, and it seems to be backfiring pretty hard, considering how much attention you’ve brought to bear on me (normally something I welcome, but after XXXIII I’m a tad apprehensive). (b) I never stated you were directly claiming to have limited scum gameplay knowledge. I called you out, because I expect a player of 3 games to know the answer to what you asked. Even as a player of 1 game, I knew that answer. There must be a motive, and that is what I want to find out. I have never been scum, and I’ve always assumed they had immediate and direct communication . In between this game, and last, however, I came across some information that implied that scum were alone to begin with, and got the QT come night. I did not think on it much at the time, but once I was motivated to know the answer, it became paramount. I am now certain that I was mistaken, or reading information on a variant | ||
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From my perspective, there is no greater scum tell than lurking. This is not only because scum tend to lurk, but because the consequences of leaving it until the next day are more dire. On top of this, the percentage chance of lynching that scummy player and him actually being scum, is very low. Scum have control of the first lynch if you base it on active but scummy reads. While XXXIII may seem an accessible counter example (we were ready to lynch a scum day one, and I intervened), this is not an accurate statistical representation. Day one scum lynch is a dream, and it is as winmore as it gets. Yes the game is easy if you catch a scum day one, but it's not likely to happen and the win-rate is to be had from planning for day two. Also. the chance to hit scum is 25% (2/8), not 22% (2/9). When I stick with a LAL policy I do not intend on being one of those that are eligible. | ||
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@Sylencia With respect, you are not listening. From my perspective, there is no greater scum tell than lurking. This is not only because scum tend to lurk, but because the consequences of leaving it until the next day are more dire. On top of this, the percentage chance of lynching that scummy player and him actually being scum, is very low. Scum have control of the first lynch if you base it on active but scummy reads. While XXXIII may seem an accessible counter example (we were ready to lynch a scum day one, and I intervened), this is not an accurate statistical representation. Day one scum lynch is a dream, and it is as winmore as it gets. Yes the game is easy if you catch a scum day one, but it's not likely to happen and the win-rate is to be had from planning for day two. Also. the chance to hit scum is 25% (2/8), not 22% (2/9). When I stick with a LAL policy I do not intend on being one of those that are eligible. | ||
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On January 04 2013 00:37 jampidampi wrote: Spaghetticus + Show Spoiler + Regarding the QT question: If he was scum, he would have gotten the QT link with his role PM. Would anyone ask something they already know of? Or was it a way to get his scumbuddy to come to the QT? It is all just speculation, but I hope everyone here would have the brains to check out the QT from their PM. Leaning towards town I think you misunderstand what the accusation is. Mocsta is proposing that as a scum, I asked a question that I already knew the answer to, in order to imply that I did not know the answer and therefore could not possibly be scum. He thinks I was soft claiming town. | ||
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On January 04 2013 16:26 jampidampi wrote: The OP provided the role PMs for each role. In the scum role PMs there is a direct link to the scum QT. Anyone rational would at least check out the link and post there once to get commucating between his scumpartner going. After all, mafias greatests strength is their information and the possibility of communication. It was a post of me sharing my weak town reads. I asked the coaches if I should share weak reads, but since they were slow to answear and I was impatient, I went ahead and posted it (they said I shouldn't share weak town reads). It may help others when considering who to scumhunt. I do agree that the post lacks some quality. I will write my suspicions of/questions to StriX in a separate post to make it more clear. Zarepath may just have a little bit of tunnel vision. It's good that he's bringing those points up, but I'm statisfied with the answears Sylencia gave. Is the following question allowed? Do not respond until I have an answer from mod. Jampi. You claim to have talked to a coach that was not quick to respond. Tell me when you posted and when the response came. I am going to McDonalds to take advantage of their air-con, it is the hottest day ever recorded where I live, I have glanced over the thread up until now but have not taken notes. When I return I will make some more committed action. If this play is allowed it could be game breaking. If you are town you have nothing to fear so long as the mod allows a response. | ||
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I'm still reading and writing, but upon reading the vote update I thought it best to give my vote. This vote is a pressure vote but is not to be taken lightly. My vote shall rest on you TeMiL until you give more content than the next lurkiest player. State your scum reads (not your town reads). Make arguments. Put pressure on someone. If you are town do not go survival mode. Do what you think is best for town regardless of what you think will help you survive day one, this is both better for town and better for your survival, whether you realise it or not. This vote is conditional but deadly serious. Contribute. | ||
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In my mind I do not contradict myself, but I often pick up lingo and have my own understanding of it. My vote is a 'pressure vote' in so far as it is meant to pressure. My vote also represents my very real intention to lynch TeMiL on the condition that TeMiL does not improve his play. If the term 'pressure vote' is categorised mutually exclusive to 'intent to lynch', then I apologise for my misleading communication. My vote is both real and intended to pressure. I think votes that are only meant to apply pressure do not work vs good players, and weaken one's own position as rational/analytic town, and consequently, one's agenda (be that scummy or town). I do not vote without intent to lynch. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + @Zare Your recent call for attention speaks of a confidence of action that suggests you consider yourself transparent town. This is good, but (and I haven't read your filter) my impression is that you have not contributed enough to be considered transparent. With the pressure of votes on you, I appreciate that you are keeping the town's best interest in mind when you don't spill your guts in an OMGUS defense (others take note). It is hard to maintain composure when your scum-reads come after you, I know this all too well. If you argue against your accusers in an objective interpretation of the game, I will listen and not call you on OMGUS. Realise, however, that the onus is on you to step up and be super analytical. If you try anything less than rational you will likely be torn to shreds (a prediction, not a threat). I may be reading too far into this, as I got lynched under similar circumstances last game, but I feel that your position will be the catalyst for the outcome of day one. I will likely not be voting for you day one, but your responses could potentially be the launchpad for a day two campaign. I will continue to LAL, which, considering the pressure you are under, will likely not include you. | ||
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If you stick around after we're both out, I would like to talk to you also. //fluff | ||
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While I agree with Mocsta's conclusion I arrived there by very different means. In fact, I had entirely forgotten TeMiL's English being his second language. This, coupled with Mocsta's convergent OC, makes me reconsider TeMiL in a few ways which I will need time to straighten out. I am also going through the majority of the thread again, and was planning on trawling filters, so a clear and confident position is not to be expected from me for at least a few hours. Basically, I am thinking of switching my vote to one of the other two lurkers (Strix or Jampi). My reasoning is convoluted even to me, I'm gonna need pen and paper for this one. My filter trawling will be looking at second guessing the presumed activity levels of certain players, to guard against the possibility of 'active lurkers' or disregarding inactive players that contribute. As a heads up. If I do switch my vote, it will likely be to Strix. I appreciate your position as an analytic strategist, but it is best for both town and you as a player if you learn to actively contribute [b]while[b/] generating a master-stroke. I am tempted to do exactly as you do, but while I generate my reads I see the need to interact and contribute. You will get lynched if you do not participate. This (again) is not a threat but an educated prediction. Being an analyst I assume you have some reads by now, and that by allowing yourself to be more transparent it is well within your means to push the LAL vote(s) onto Jamp or back onto TeMiL. | ||
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Mocsta, if you are still about, what do the numbers mean? How do you define 'in session'? And what is the other, bigger number? Could you please spell this out for me please? | ||
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@Jampi I will go through your filter before I make a decision to switch, Strix claims a similar position and I will treat you equally. While I have not yet gone through your filter, my impression is that regardless of your post quality, it is not enough. Remember, your first (but not only) priority is to confirm yourself as town. If you confirm yourself as town we will not mislynch you. In order to accurately appraise you we need information, and that is achieved by you providing input. From the rest of town's perspective, your inactivity is suspicious. Town is an emotional beast that is subject to the machinations of a calculating minority. By not contributing actively you are giving scum the opportunity to mislynch you before you can complete your perfect case. Do not give them that chance. Spend time securing short term goals in order to actualise long term ones. | ||
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Drop the countries thing. | ||
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Spag: What is to stop scum from controlling which lurker gets voted? Couldn't you argue that they would actually have more power, since they know which lurker, if any, is the other member of their team, and then just push for whichever other candidates there are? ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 00:20 Spaghetticus wrote: I play for the long game, and think little of the chance of day one scum lynches. ________________________________________ Why do you push for a random lynch on day 1 over something such as no lynch (even though I explained earlier, does not give information)? You want to play for the long game, but killing off random players pushes the game into a faster pace, where we could end up losing on Night 3 if all goes wrong (all mislynches, a night kill per night). Rereading what I just wrote from this sentence, I have a feeling I'm misinterpreting what you're saying here, so feel free to correct me, but it just sounds rather contradictory to me to have these two actions. It is not a random lynch. Lurking benefits scum, and is therefore not pro-town behaviour. Lurking is scummy, though town can do it too. The chances of a scum read off other factors are lower [I think, this is not a known statistic to me]. Scum want lurkers alive day two, as they are an easy mislynch when under pressure, it’s akin to having a ‘get out of jail free’ card. Getting a kill on two active towns before day two comes round is the scum dream, and by lynching active players you are walking straight into this likely trap, making their best case scenario a likelihood. “Hypothetical” Scenario: Three lurkers Three moderately active players Three active players An active player is lynched day one, and active player is NKed night one. That leaves 1-3 ‘free’ mislynches and one threat that will possibly be eliminated night two (depending on medic availability and competence). This is a strongly scum favoured scenario and by leaving lurkers until day two you are making this possibility a probability. There is at best a 25% chance to lynch scum day one if going for an active townie (my estimate is a lot less). The chances of a successful NK action on night one are pretty high too. Note that regardless of where the two scum fall within the lurker spectrum, this position is fantastic for them. They always have the option to ‘improve’ when required to keep ahead of lazy town lurkers, just like Corazon did in XXXIII. Your day two lurker lynch will also be pretty unproductive, and a successful NK on night two would seal the deal. You might say that this is a lot of mights (haha). This is true. But make serious considerations of the math behind it and you will realise that playing for an successful lynch day one is a gambit where you don’t know which pieces do what, or even which pieces belong to whom. You have at best a 25% chance of a positive outcome (not better than a LAL vote), and every other conceivable outcome is inferior for town when compared to LAL. On top of this, LAL is not random, as you claim. Lurking is anti-town behaviour whether it is displayed by town or scum. Everyone knows it, even the newbies. There is no interpretation here. If a town lurks, he knows he is damaging town, there is no wriggle room. Anything that damages town’s chances is scummy, making lurking a very clear scumsign, one superior to other scumsigns as a read in many ways. | ||
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(1) Your response to Session 2. Q2 ________________________________________ Strong scum reads have already revealed a lot about themselves, and you can expect pressure on them later. ________________________________________ Care to develop this further (I do understand you said real life commitments would plague you today) From your other posts, I am guessing you have aligned yourself along similar thoughts, but I will go through this motion for the sake of transparent play and for anyone not thinking along similar lines. Strong scum reads only come from active players. If a player is inactive they cannot give strong reads (which is one reason why scum like to be inactive). When I refer to a strong scum read, I use this as one category under the umbrella of active player. No lurker is a ‘strong’ scum read. All active players contribute information on themselves, including their interpretation of events. The more information a person contributes, the more chances to make mistakes or contradictions exist, and thus over time, an active mafia is likely to be caught. If someone is an active player that is also a ‘strong’ scum read, you can expect that over time their guilt will compound into fool-proof cases, and they will be caught. Lurker scum have a strength trend that is almost the opposite of this. Lurker scum that are not dealt with early get stronger. By sitting in the background a lurker scum develops an understanding of the atmosphere (in combination with his information advantage) in order to better manipulate it. He has made zero commitment to a playstyle (excluding meta information) and can thus adjust his style in order to make town mislynch. Improvements in his activity will be applauded by town (again, see XXXIII Corazon). There is no information on him so as long as people prioritise ‘strong’ scum reads over lurky scum reads, town will decapitate themselves leaving only moderately active/lurky players plus scum, which is a [b]TERRIBLE position for town. This is why I LAL, and unless you have a logical reason to disagree, you should to. I do not want a debate about this. If you have a reason to not LAL, I don’t need to hear it, as it will clutter the board, and take emphasis off of scum-hunting. We can discuss this via PM after the game if you feel you have a stronger understanding. Your vote is your own, so if you disagree with me, use your vote as you see fit. | ||
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I agree with Mocsta on TeMiL, though maybe not on whether he should be lynched for it. - TeMiL does not have sufficient mastery of the English language to effectively play this game. - TeMiL does not therefore have useful analysis skills, as these stem from effective interpretation of communication. - TeMiL is therefore unable to help town. It is unfortunate but true. - I have a complete null read on TeMiL (25% scum) other than one read: I cannot think of a possible town motive for TeMiL to talk about countries. I can think of a plausible scum explanation that pairs nicely with his communication difficulties. TeMiL read a guide or listened to a coach when he was told that scum are supposed to mislead town with irrelevant information. For someone having difficulty with the nuances of English, talking about a geographic component to mafia fits this description perfectly. | ||
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You look like you’re half way between lurking and posting fluff posts. When I skim over your filter I see nothing that looks like contribution. I am almost certainly heavily biased. If you have the time you may want to prove me wrong by highlighting some actual content from your filter? I will absolutely demand it of you come night presuming we are both still kickin’. I understand if you have other more important content to post, it is nearing lynching time so time is of the essence. Either way I expect either new content OR a defense, preferably the former. | ||
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Anything addressed to Mocsta will likely not be answered until night. I have spoken at length about why I feel the way I do about lurky behaviour. That you have somehow missed this gargantuan effort on my part and attributed two out of the three most active player's voting actions to laziness speaks volumes to me about the depth of your efforts. Admittedly, you are the one completing the trifecta, so this is more of a riposte than an in depth analysis. Just so you know, I have a note in my word pad about your efforts to preserve lurkers. I think our disagreement in this regard is of consequence, do not attribute my voting action to laziness. That being said, I approve of your suspicion of Mocsta's final words before bed. I have scrutinised this action and it comes off as RL problems, but I could be biased. Is there any more that you wish to add to concerning Mocsta's scummy behaviour? It does remind me a lot of your scummy tunneling in XXXIII. Mocsta may seem untouchable now but anything you can force from him when he does make a slip such as now could be vital later on. | ||
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Try to do more than just defend yourself. You are under pressure, but the best thing you can do for town and yourself is to be proactive rather than reactive. If someone has some particularly pertinent points feel free to address them, but you should be looking to contribute new content. As you are now under considerable pressure yourself, I feel that I can tell you that I have ruled you out as a voting option. I was keeping this info from you to try and make you contribute, but now I sense a potential bandwagon on you that I think is not in the town's best interest. I feel the content you have submitted to be more concise, of superior analytic quality, and far less scummy than that of StiX. I'm still torn between Stix and TeMiL, for my day one vote. I think revealing this information to you has not decreased your motive to post, but has increased theirs, as their odds of my vote have gone up from 1/3 to 1/2. Anyone that is thinking of voting for Jam should read through both the filter of Jam and Stix (they are both short), and ask themselves if there is any reason whatsoever they should vote Jam over Stix? | ||
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Lynching lurkers day two is exactly what you do not want to have to do. You have disregarded everything I have posted on this matter without addressing it and it's starting to feel scummy. For the sake of you maintaining a positive town light in my eyes, could you duck through my filter and respond to my arguments as to why lynching lurkers day one is FAR superior to lynching them day two? Your position on day two LAL is from my perspective indefensible, and I would like to know why I'm wrong in thinking you uncharacteristically dense to disagree. | ||
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On January 05 2013 02:36 Spaghetticus wrote: @Strix You look like you’re half way between lurking and posting fluff posts. When I skim over your filter I see nothing that looks like contribution. I am almost certainly heavily biased. If you have the time you may want to prove me wrong by highlighting some actual content from your filter? I will absolutely demand it of you come night presuming we are both still kickin’. I understand if you have other more important content to post, it is nearing lynching time so time is of the essence. Either way I expect either new content OR a defense, preferably the former. As above, but @Sylencia You're being just responsive enough to fly under the radar. I can't see much that you've contributed pertaining to the outcome of this game, you've responded when prompted which suggests that while you are wanting to appear active, you aren't actually doing any of the background research that leads to OC or cases. This is scummy. As I said to Strix, show me some original content you have contributed, or even better, present some you've been holding back. | ||
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I get a scum read off you... but... I am not going to pursue you if I can help it. Your process is so alien to me I can't really fathom your motives. I would like other people to apply scrutiny while I look elsewhere. I just can't see you as not scum, but this was true in XXXIII and you flipped town. Please people, before you attribute a scumbuddy relationship here... ... ... ... this is too high profile and obvious. My contribution will be substantial elsewhere, I genuinely feel my objectivity is compromised entirely when dealing with Omni. This is town motivated and too bold a risk for too little a reward to be a scum ploy. I have reasonable town motive, I don't want this post to haunt me. | ||
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##vote:Strix | ||
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Strix (3) - Spag, Jamp, Omni Jamp (3) - Syl, Corazon, Strix Omni (2) - Zare, Moc Jampi is currently set to get lynched due to plurality. | ||
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On January 05 2013 09:32 StriX wrote: Survival = bad? It's weird also that you are basically saying with your vote that I lurk more than TeMiL. As a town or scum it's semi-expected of you. What I was implying is that while people see the vote numbers, they should disregard yours as it does not lay at the same place as your top scum read. @Omni While I'm deliberately keeping away from you, it's not because I don't see a case. If StriX had tunneled you instead of being scummy/lazy it would probably be your head. Don't mistake my abstaining from scum-hunting you as you not coming across as scummy. I would have been more than happy with a lynch on you, I just don't trust myself to find the townsign if it is there. | ||
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On January 05 2013 09:45 cDgCorazon wrote: Actually, they both need to happen, because of the tiebreaker. Wait what? am I reading the OP correctly? is a tie a no-lynch? I swear I second checked it to make sure it was plurality? | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + I did. The OP says both This game uses plurality lynch - The one with the most votes gets lynched. In case of a tie, the one that got there first wins the race! and 5. This game uses Plurality Lynch. The person with the most votes gets lynched. For somebody else to get lynched, he needs to overtake the current lynch-ee in votes. The second one makes it sound like you need a majority, but you only need a majority at some point in time. Someone is getting lynched. | ||
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Now that StiX is gone, you are the person who has had the most suspicion of them expressed with a vote. You are so far from bullet-proof it blows my mind that you would act this way. | ||
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Basically, unless we have very bold scum, I believe there was at most one scum voting for StiX. This means that if Jamp, Omni, or Corazon flip scum, you can increase your town reads on the other two. I do not include myself in this equation so as to remove the possibility of scum motive from my post. I am not implying you should discount me if any of these three flip scum, and if I flip scum, you should completely ignore this post. This also does not imply that there was definitely one scum on the StiX wagon. There could be two distributed among Jami and Omni. It does imply that there was at least one voting for either Jami or Omni, though this is not a very strong claim. | ||
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Good post. I do have solid reasoning for my switches, but would prefer not to post them now if people can figure them out themselves. I invite the scrutiny (it's inevitable). I like the direction of this analysis. I want Syl pushed, and am very happy with this information as a foundation. I will most likely post an explanation of my behaviour later, but this should not stop you analysing my motives now. Your switch doesn't seem particularly scummy to me, but I have reason for bias in that I believe I changed for similar reasons. I do not like this as a platform for analysis on TeMiL. He spouts nonsense and is in my eyes an empty slot. Nothing he has said has been influential, and thus if he is scum he is entirely ineffective at promoting his agenda. This does make me feel a little cross saying this, as I'd have liked him mod-killed, but if TeMiL is scum you won't catch him by analysing his posts, and by ignoring him you would be creating a town environment of 6/1, which is town favoured. If he is town then you are wasting your time on him, and the current numbers would be 5/2 regardless. My understanding gives no explanation of how I intend on actually catching him if he is scum, I guess I'm hoping that over time, we will have more information to work with. If anyone wants to attack TeMiL, then I would request that they first address my reasoning above. My conclusion is that regardless of his alignment, there is currently no point in pursuing a case against TeMiL. | ||
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On January 05 2013 10:47 OmniEulogy wrote: I believe you guys are right about 1 scum on myself and StriX, however I believe its more likely for Jampi to be the scum on StriX and the remaining scum to be Mocsta or Zare. Zare made a similar move to Cora in NMM XXXIII when voting for me. I'm not sure if its scummy in this case or just bad play though. Could you elaborate on this move? What makes it similar and why is it scummy/bad. What town and scum motives can be attributed to this action? Do you realise just how little reasoning you are explaining when you just give us your conclusions? | ||
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Don't talk about coaches. If we are not allowed to analyse coach claims, there is no point in using them to give emphasis. It's unverifiable and therefore meaningless. It is at best worthless fluff and at worst a deliberate appeal to authority to try and sway town towards your unsubstantiated opinions. A town would not want to do either (if your opinions are substantiated, you should be able to give reasons other than 'a coach agrees'. @Corazon No, your posts did little to influence me, though they did help me respect your position a little more. My response to your second post was an attempt to lead you into Mocsta's honey pot, so while an accurate perspective, it was not news to me. You took Mocsta's bait, but responded pretty will IMO. I think you ignored mine, which was also the right move. | ||
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The lynch dance, while unsuccessful in landing a scumwhale, was very productive information wise, as has been mentioned by others. We now have a treasure trove of info on most players, so I expect an increase in aggression, as nobody has an excuse to not have reads now. @Omni I don't think the mods have a problem with claiming to have conversed with coaches, but as has already been established, they do have a problem with real analysis of the claim. I have a problem with you claiming to have spoken with coaches, for the reasons I have previously stated. In regard to your 'soft buddy claim' on me, this is shocking. I honestly feel helpless in regard to this. It doesn't seem intentional, but I have the benefit of knowing we are not buddies. This in conjunction with my previous decidedly odd decision to not scumhunt you despite my suspicions of you, is basically aligning my fate with your flip. I'm sorry to wash my hands of you in such a way, particularly since I believe your intention was to defend someone you read as town. I can't think of a scum motive for this action that doesn't come off a little far fetched though, which is good for me. | ||
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On January 05 2013 11:23 Sylencia wrote: If Temil is scum, there is another teammate to worry about. All that needs to happen is that Temil listens to them, and bandwagon to the appropriate vote. It is not 6/1 as you say it is, it would still be 6/2. You have to remember that while he has no influence in our discussions, he still holds a vote. If he is scum, that is a potentially powerful vote. If Temil is town, no one is guiding him. He will not be voting in a very rational manner, he will not be reading our posts and cases, instead making his own (as you can see from his posts, he has made a few random accusations at you and Jampi) and voting off that. This is NOT the situation we want to be in, because if we reach a stalemate during the next vote, we would have to see how Temil votes. Assuming we have 2 scum and a townie on one person, and townies voting on town, we would be leaving it up to a 50/50 chance he understands the situation, and votes the right one. Not the best odds. Taking it further if he is town: He probably won't be killed because he is a liability to town. You're now in a 3-2 situation. Do you want to have Temil be the decider of the game? This is sound analysis, you are really speaking my language with this post. His vote is actually more powerful since he doesn't have to justify it in any way. In regard to influence it is 6/1, but in terms of voting it is more like 6/2.5 (2.5 is mean to represent TemiL's more powerful vote, it's more powerful than a single vote but not as powerful as two). TeMiL holding the balance of power as town does not worry me. Scum has exactly the same handicap in their voting, they have no clue where his vote will land. Approximately the same options for circumvention are available to both scum and town. Scum have more solid powers of premeditation, and can therefore invest more into outcome certainty, but this commitment to a lynch comes at a price of providing information. For town, I know I will be micromanaging the lynch to ensure one of my reads goes down, and I expect other town will want to do the same. You are correct in assessing TeMiL as a detriment to town, the question now becomes whether this negative is outweighed by anyone else's play. Oh crap. There are no vigilantes this game. A vigikill would be perfect for this occasion. I have actually been hoping that there was a vigilante present and listening, but I guess this goes to show I should pay more attention to the OP. There are also no medics... This makes Mocsta's fate almost certain... How frustrating. Regardless, your analysis is impressive Syl, this improves your standing substantially in my eyes. I am wary of you deliberately catering to the known disposition of one of your threats, but that is good play for both town and scum. | ||
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On January 05 2013 11:11 OmniEulogy wrote: I'm not ignoring the votes on Jampi. I'm ruling out Syl for the time being and I couldn't even begin to guess at TeMiL. Who else has votes on them other than those two? I know you'd like to believe Spag and myself are both scum but you are wrong. Cora is also a null read at the moment. And I already said why I wouldn't vote for TeMiL. I made my case against StriX... do you really not care who a vote gets placed on that much? Nothing in what you have just said makes much sense. "I switched from TeMiL because I saw a chance to change to you, Why weren't YOU voting for TeMiL?" really? I've said multiple times a vote on TeMiL is wasted right now. You are stating you have information on me that you would not have as a townie. This is a soft claim, though I really can't think of an intent for town or scum. | ||
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I actually did not promise to make a case against Omni, I distinctly stated that while I feel he is scummy, I do not want to be the one making the case, as I have massive bias. I have been directing attention to him as nobody seems to be picking up on his loose play. In the absence of a case, I will likely make one, but I am busy and have other people I would like to pursue. If Corazon feels up to the task, this would be optimal from my perspective. | ||
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On January 05 2013 12:30 Mocsta wrote: Spaghetticus, you are constantly inserting my name and scum in the same sentences. I am not going to bother inserting the posts, because I would run out of page space...(read through the filter search Mocsta, and it is evident) If you have a problem with me, and the way I am operating.. Call me out directly, and make a case. Otherwise, you are trying to influence individuals in a deceptive manner. I think everyone can agree that is NOT town-like. (For the record, I don't even know what your "honey-pot" is referring to) If I am doing this I am unaware. The post you quoted above, is actually me talking about your [b]TOWN[/b} behaviour. Let me explain: The honeypot is a ploy where a town seduces a scum into revealing himself by making an obvious minor blunder. If someone tries to come in and inflate the minor mistake into a major one when this is outside your read on them, then you have likely found reason to suspect them. A mafia wants to put emphasis on irrelevant or clumsily executed arguments, rather than ones that actually contribute to catching them. If this style sounds familiar, that is because I claimed this exact ploy earlier when explaining my 'slip'. My honeypot was more improvisation than anything, as I actually wanted to know about the mafia QT, but it was a honeypot none the less. Note: honeypot is my word for it, I like to use flowery language. There is probably a canon phrase for this maneuver in the guides, but I do not know it. I have noticed several times that you make seemingly deliberate mistakes using yourself as bait, for presumably this reason. I identified your crude 100% read to be exactly that: an invitation for deliberate misinterpretation. Seeing Corazon being reasonable about it, I decided to rebait the trap to see if I could get a read, but this also failed. As you can now see, the post you used to represent your read of me being a peripheral pathway scum marketer is a misinterpretation. I have no intention of attacking you pre-day two as I know there is no point. I will admit that I want people to keep in mind that while you are a strong town read, you are NOT confirmed town. Your approach is so systematic that it is my opinion that, like myself, you decide on your playstyle before you receive your role. This makes a good town but also a resilient mafia. I am not implying I have a scum read on you, I am saying that your play would be very similar regardless of whether you were mafia or town, which means we should not be too hasty in giving you a positive town read despite your obvious contributions. I just F5ed and realised you'd made a remark on Syl's analysis, claiming it is not OC. I will now go check this. | ||
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I was intending on doing a play by play, but I now think it unnecessary and largely irrelevant. Mocsta you are correct in that what Syl said had already been largely covered by you. He was able to take your broad strokes and turn them into a precise analysis that actually influenced my thought patters. This is the first time this game that I have had to really rethink my approach because I thought someone else had done a better job at thinking than me. Further still, despite the strength of his communication, he still managed to under appreciate his own arguments. A scum tries to emphasise his points beyond their relevance, Syl did not do this, preferring a quiet analysis. Mocsta your playstyle is overwhelmingly enthusiastic, but this means you tend to only communicate your reads on a comparatively shallow level (this is not a bad thing, you’re still extremely pro-town). Syl has managed to take your initial read, and developed it beyond what you communicated, which is pro-town. He also went into scenarios of where TeMiL was an effective scum, when before this scenario was presumed a non-issue. While I was silly to attribute the entire post as OC, I stand by this post giving a pro-town vibe. I am sorry for not recognising your contribution, though quite frankly I think this is no longer in question. | ||
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I had a quick read backwards, and it looks like posts relevant to the lynch start on page 17 with Dandel Ion's vote count. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2013 21:39 Dandel Ion wrote: Votecount: zarepath (2): OmniEulogy, Sylencia TeMiL (1): StriX StriX (1): jampidampi Not voting (5): cDgCorazon, zarepath, Spaghetticus, TeMiL, Mocsta Currently, zarepath is set to be lynched! 12 hours 20 minutes remaining in day 1. Just as a reminder, day 1 deadline will be at 01:00 GMT (+00:00), because of the performed YOLO. As you can see, only preliminary votes are present, and shortly afterwards shit gets real with three vote changes on the same page, including Mocsta's big post on TeMiL. The lynch on Stix is completed on page 23, so that's seven pages to analyse. The current most townie players have all done far more than this, it is not that big of an ask. I would ask that Corazon, Mocsta, and myself do not contribute our analysis until everyone has had a chance. We have already provided enough contribution to not be called scummy for holding back our reads, we need to give an opportunity for others to do the same. That means we want to see analysis from:- - Jamp - Syl - Omni - Zare Day two cases will be based on this analysis, it is of utmost importance. On top of holding back your analysis, I want Corazon, mocsta, and myself to prepare wills before the upcoming NK. We have a 50% chance of there actually being a JK, then that JK has to correctly identify the scum that will carry out the NK without being roleblocked. One of us dies tonight. With the information available to me I expect it to be Mocsta, but scum have more information to work with and could find any number of reasons to NK Corazon or myself. These wills ARE a big ask, as they need to be submitted very close to the deadline so a s not to influence the NK, and need to provide info on why you think you got lynched, and any scum reads you have been keeping to yourself. | ||
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I hold nothing against TeMiL, he is in over his head. Once he has a better mastery of the language I think Mafia would be a great game for him to play. Until that day, he will only confuse threads and weaken town. I am not interested in anything he has to say, as, unlike a more typical lurker, I believe he does not actually possess the capacity to meaningfully contribute, thus, I do not encourage him to contribute. My God I am a jerk... | ||
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Some quick notes: - Someone said I made a lot of last minute FoS, which is scummy. This is true, sort of. I called out a lot of people that I thought were not contributing as much as they should, but these callouts were urging them to contribute for a strong day two (at least some of them). I was not posting suspicion so much as I was pressuring for activity. - The Analysis by Syl was great. Jamp was broad strokes, and I would like to hear more specific reads, but this is a good start and I appreciate it. Omni your effort is appreciated, but I have at least one major criticism which I will get to soon, I have a lot of requests I must attend to. - Am I right in thinking Zare is yet to post analysis? | ||
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This seems really obvious to me, but that's the benefit of introspection I guess. I switched to StriX as soon as Mocsta switched to Omni. StriX was a lurker that had not proving as analytic and direct as Jamp when there had been meta expectations of this type of performance. I had already ruled out voting for Jamp, and had already started making my concerns known about voting for TeMiL. While my vote had been on TeMiL previously, it was only put on him that early in order to pressure (I realise this was a mistake). If I had have held on to my vote until later, and then voted StriX, this would have been less townish as I would not be using my votethreat as a resource, but also would not have called any attention to me whatsoever. When Mocsta switched, TeMiL was no longer on the chopping block at all, by keeping my vote on him I was basically giving a null read of my intentions: a no-lynch. There were three options: - vote StriX - vote Omni - vote Jamp As already mentioned I thought StriX a superior lynch to Jamp. Other than lurking, StriX was actually coming off as mild to moderate scum. At least Jamp is precise with his few words. This made my options either StriX or Omni. I have immense difficulty reading Omni's play as anything but scummy, but this is his meta and there is little I can do about it. He has also actually posted, and with my hard-line LAL adherence I both wanted and was forced to vote for StriX. | ||
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I know we have been sort of rude to you, and your fun factor is being compromised as a result. I don’t expect you to comply with this request, but I’m going to ask anyway on the off-chance you are profoundly reasonable. Your vote, regardless of your alignment, is scaring the shit out of town, because it is unjustified and seems almost entirely random. If you do not vote, you will be mod-killed, but if you do vote, you could potentially screw town over. I implore you to vote for a no-lynch, allowing the rest of town to do their thing, and stopping you from being banned from this site. | ||
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You will want to present your analysis before night actions are executed, along with your wills. This is the deadline for Zare to post his analysis as well, because we do not want him benefiting from the analysis of current town leadership. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + MY WILL On Mocsta: While I have the most posts, my contribution is likely less than Mocsta’s, so my dying is conspicuous when there is a stronger town to kill. It is my belief that if Mocsta is not killed, it is because scum have deliberately left him alone because either he is scum, or because they want people to assume him not being killed makes him scum. There is also the chance they will try to play around the possibility of a jailkeeper and lynch myself or Corazon assuming that the JK will keep Mocsta safe. They also have the same 50% chance of a JK existing to work with, because of the solid role distribution design (check it in the OP). This presumes they don’t have an amazing read on a blue role, which would alter their chances. Unfortunately, this leaves you with WIFOM. What to do from here? The same thing I’ve been doing, which is admitting to yourself that he could be scum, but also leaving him until last. Go for the other scum, and hope that their flip will lead you to Mocsta’s door (if he is scum). Now that I’ve made this available information, I expect scum to play around it from now on if they have not already been doing so, so posts previous to this one will be more valuable. Remember, if scum are playing on Mocsta’s obvious utility to town, they are taking a massive risk in keeping him alive to throw doubt on him. If he continues to remain alive and is green, then town are much stronger. If he is scum then we still can’t catch him without further information, so bide your time while his extreme output provides a paper trail. On TeMil: TeMiL is another person that presents massive difficulty. I am very reluctant to waste a day’s lynch on a null read just because his continued existence threatens town. Lynch’s are valuable tools and should be used to seek scum if possible. With two mislynches and two NK’s, that leaves a 3/2 town scum ratio for day three, which is LYLO. We need a scum dead on day two. In making the decision of whether to lynch TeMiL (as it is a tricky one), please refer to these posts:- Mocsta's day one case: + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2013 22:41 TeMiL wrote: - Hide Spoiler - answering mocsta questions: - Hide Spoiler - (1) So far your post count reads as useless fluff. Why should I not vote for you? am a really newbie in this game, i you check others mafia games you wouldnt find me anywhere. if i get voted maybe i can loose any interest of this game but in the other case i will learn more and be more active. (2) "growing in my role" What does this mean? (I understand English is not your first language) i mean i can learn what to do and be a better player each day. right now am like a little boy in his first class, i want to learn a lot but is difficult to be attached every hour. ill try to change that. answering others post - Hide Spoiler - ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 14:24 StriX wrote: 2. Feel like we're going a bit easy on TeMiL and I'd like to vote to lynch him right now. I delayed my vote due to suspecting lurking was due to timezone issues, however, I feel like we've given him long enough to contribute. He is also the only one to not respond to Mocsta's first set of questions. As an idea Mocsta could you may ##Vote TeMil ________________________________________ i answer both rounds of questions and ive just finished the third. my 2 post where those questions and i couldnt write more because i went back home, forgot my celphone with internet connection and couldnt write any post until now. well ill hope u can change your mind. ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 14:44 OmniEulogy wrote: @StriX if you think that qualifies you as a contributor in any discussion to this point I apologize. How about you update us with your thoughts. Right now in terms of contribution imo from the bottom up its Temil - Strix/Jampi - everybody else. ________________________________________ ill change your thoughts about me... can i? ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 15:26 cDgCorazon wrote: In all honesty, I think voting TeMiL right now is a pretty useless move. I think a FoS (Finger of Suspicion) towards TeMiL can be more helpful than just voting TeMiL and being done with the analysis. Voting someone that is lurking this early in the game is really just being lazy, and does not help out town at all. . ________________________________________ thanks :D actually i didnt lurker at all if u consider lurker a gamer that only entered 3 times. right now am reading everything and with my phone back ill be writing every minute ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 21:12 StriX wrote: TeMiL is currently the undisputedly biggest lurker. ________________________________________ until today . like i said i will practicing my english a lot! give an opportunity thats all ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 21:59 StriX wrote: ##unvote TeMiL ________________________________________ this was unespected, looks like cDgCorazon makes you change your vote? ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 22:05 Spaghetticus wrote: #Vote: TeMiL This vote is conditional but deadly serious. Contribute. ________________________________________ ill contribute :D this is all right now. ________________________________________ ________________________________________ OMG... Before I played Newbie 33.. I read through Newbie 32... there was this guy.. AxelGreaser... you have just given me back nightmares of him.. Luckily Yamato isnt playing, he would probably delete his team liquid account. ________________________________________ In all seriousness, you have made my life easier today. I was about to start reading through filters, consolidating my thought process, to make a case as promised to cDgCorazon and Sylencia. But... your post, has made me throw that out the window ________________________________________ ##Vote: TeMiL ________________________________________ (1) You have had the lowest post contribution in 30hrs of play. No excuses (2) All your posts are fluff, and then your riposte to accusations of fluff, is simply fluffx2 with a Does this make you mafia? • NO, it does guarantee you are mafia. Does this make you absolutely useless and unreliable town? • YES, this is guaranteed. Town, I am voting TeMiL, because, his actions have proven to be useless and unreliable. (Yes, I use proven to a person with a 1 page filter, that is how strongly I feel) I ask you this... if we were down to 3 candidates, YOU (Town), X (Scum) and TeMiL... can you trust TeMiL to vote for X? I already know from his last post, the answer is no, I cant rely on his innocence as town, I can't rely on his skill to scum hunt, and I certainly can not rely on his ability to establish a vote. but... lets take a look at the flip side and counter my argument. (1) Do we care if we can rely on him, we are not down to 3 candidates? (2) Do you not have a better scum read you can target (instead of lurker bait), as you advocate others to do? ________________________________________ Well.. (1) Agreed, but there has been no stand out lynch candidate thus far. Thus, for Day1 it is highly likely TeMiL might be the hammer vote to send someone home... someone who could be Town.. Are you confident enough on YOUR scum read to risk this happening? (2) Agreed, I had a better scum read prior to TeMiL posting, I was just about to read the filter. BUT, the risks to me from (1) are too extreme. We have limited players, 7 townies, every player counts. If TeMiL hammered a townie home, and then a townie is dropped off from Night Kill, Day 2 starts with 2 mafia and 5 townies; which is going to signficantly reduce town odds. I am looking at the big picture here, and lynching a ?possible town? TeMiL to me is less risk long term than lynching my scum read, who may also be a town flip. Are you confident enough on YOUR scum read to risk this happening? ________________________________________ P.S. Just refreshed to see if anything new before posted, and saw this beauty. Case in Point. or as I have always wanted to say since doing Trigonometry in high school. Q.E.D - Hide Spoiler - ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 23:14 TeMiL wrote: ________________________________________ Hide nested quote - On January 04 2013 22:49 zarepath wrote: TeMiL, what do you think about my earlier analysis of Sylencia? ________________________________________ u have something agains australians or isjust causality to target him? looks like you now how to analyse a gamer. its a good brief of course and thanks to made me read it again Spag's plea to ignore TeMiL: + Show Spoiler + I do not like this as a platform for analysis on TeMiL. He spouts nonsense and is in my eyes an empty slot. Nothing he has said has been influential, and thus if he is scum he is entirely ineffective at promoting his agenda. This does make me feel a little cross saying this, as I'd have liked him mod-killed, but if TeMiL is scum you won't catch him by analysing his posts, and by ignoring him you would be creating a town environment of 6/1, which is town favoured. If he is town then you are wasting your time on him, and the current numbers would be 5/2 regardless. My understanding gives no explanation of how I intend on actually catching him if he is scum, I guess I'm hoping that over time, we will have more information to work with. If anyone wants to attack TeMiL, then I would request that they first address my reasoning above. My conclusion is that regardless of his alignment, there is currently no point in pursuing a case against TeMiL. Syl's reprimand: + Show Spoiler + If Temil is scum, there is another teammate to worry about. All that needs to happen is that Temil listens to them, and bandwagon to the appropriate vote. It is not 6/1 as you say it is, it would still be 6/2. You have to remember that while he has no influence in our discussions, he still holds a vote. If he is scum, that is a potentially powerful vote. If Temil is town, no one is guiding him. He will not be voting in a very rational manner, he will not be reading our posts and cases, instead making his own (as you can see from his posts, he has made a few random accusations at you and Jampi) and voting off that. This is NOT the situation we want to be in, because if we reach a stalemate during the next vote, we would have to see how Temil votes. Assuming we have 2 scum and a townie on one person, and townies voting on town, we would be leaving it up to a 50/50 chance he understands the situation, and votes the right one. Not the best odds. Taking it further if he is town: He probably won't be killed because he is a liability to town. You're now in a 3-2 situation. Do you want to have Temil be the decider of the game? Spag's response to Syl's reprimand: + Show Spoiler + This is sound analysis, you are really speaking my language with this post. His vote is actually more powerful since he doesn't have to justify it in any way. In regard to influence it is 6/1, but in terms of voting it is more like 6/2.5 (2.5 is mean to represent TemiL's more powerful vote, it's more powerful than a single vote but not as powerful as two). TeMiL holding the balance of power as town does not worry me. Scum has exactly the same handicap in their voting, they have no clue where his vote will land. Approximately the same options for circumvention are available to both scum and town. Scum have more solid powers of premeditation, and can therefore invest more into outcome certainty, but this commitment to a lynch comes at a price of providing information. For town, I know I will be micromanaging the lynch to ensure one of my reads goes down, and I expect other town will want to do the same. You are correct in assessing TeMiL as a detriment to town, the question now becomes whether this negative is outweighed by anyone else's play. Oh crap. There are no vigilantes this game. A vigikill would be perfect for this occasion. I have actually been hoping that there was a vigilante present and listening, but I guess this goes to show I should pay more attention to the OP. There are also no medics... This makes Mocsta's fate almost certain... How frustrating. Regardless, your analysis is impressive Syl, this improves your standing substantially in my eyes. I am wary of you deliberately catering to the known disposition of one of your threats, but that is good play for both town and scum. + Show Spoiler + Mislynch analysis: StriX StriX (4): jampidampi, OmniEulogy, Spaghetticus, cDgCorazon jampidampi (2): Sylencia, TeMiL OmniEulogy (3): Mocsta, zarepath, StriX I’ve already presented justification for my behaviour here: + Show Spoiler + My justification for switching to StiX. This seems really obvious to me, but that's the benefit of introspection I guess. I switched to StriX as soon as Mocsta switched to Omni. StriX was a lurker that had not proving as analytic and direct as Jamp when there had been meta expectations of this type of performance. I had already ruled out voting for Jamp, and had already started making my concerns known about voting for TeMiL. While my vote had been on TeMiL previously, it was only put on him that early in order to pressure (I realise this was a mistake). If I had have held on to my vote until later, and then voted StriX, this would have been less townish as I would not be using my votethreat as a resource, but also would not have called any attention to me whatsoever. When Mocsta switched, TeMiL was no longer on the chopping block at all, by keeping my vote on him I was basically giving a null read of my intentions: a no-lynch. There were three options: - vote StriX - vote Omni - vote Jamp As already mentioned I thought StriX a superior lynch to Jamp. Other than lurking, StriX was actually coming off as mild to moderate scum. At least Jamp is precise with his few words. This made my options either StriX or Omni. I have immense difficulty reading Omni's play as anything but scummy, but this is his meta and there is little I can do about it. He has also actually posted, and with my hard-line LAL adherence I both wanted and was forced to vote for StriX. And also what I consider an important post on possible scum distribution here: + Show Spoiler + I'm not sure if this is an exact repeat of the 1:1 hypothesis from XXXIII, as I was dead and only skimmed over it. Basically, unless we have very bold scum, I believe there was at most one scum voting for StiX. This means that if Jamp, Omni, or Corazon flip scum, you can increase your town reads on the other two. I do not include myself in this equation so as to remove the possibility of scum motive from my post. I am not implying you should discount me if any of these three flip scum, and if I flip scum, you should completely ignore this post. This also does not imply that there was definitely one scum on the StiX wagon. There could be two distributed among Jami and Omni. It does imply that there was at least one voting for either Jami or Omni, though this is not a very strong claim. The three people up for lynching (TeMiL excluded) were: Omni, Jamp, and StriX). I think Jamp was an inferior lynch to StriX in every way (with the information available at the time). That Syl sat his vote on Jamp does not give us any information on him as he knew his vote would be meaningless. Sitting by yourself on someone that is not in contention is equivalent to a no-lynch, and this gives me a scummy read on him. He had the option to express a large degree of power over who got lynched between Omni and StriX, but declined this opportunity and went no-lynch. Weak… Omni was a more active poster, but from my perspective his meta is damn scummy even when he plays town. StriX’s vote on Omni was for survival, so did not really represent his read. That leaves Mocsta and Zare as the two people actually putting their reads on Omni. I completely excuse Mocsta, both because he’s bulletproof from lynches for now, and because his action actually represented his read. There was no wagon for Omni at the time, and by backing out of TeMiL he was not dissociating from an active wagon. There is no scum motive there that I can see. Zare’s motive is a little more… suspect. He jumps off TeMiL and straight onto Mocsta’s proposed bandwagon without justification: a straight mimic play. This play will almost guarantee Zare being town if Omni flips red. Until we have this information however, it reads as scummy, as he doesn’t offer any justification for his switch, and it doesn’t seem as if he cares who gets lynched. Combine this with him not posting an analysis and Zare is giving me some nasty signals. Analysis on the three people that voted on StriX with me is a little more difficult, as I am guilty of the same crime. Jampidampi was first to vote strix, I believe for both survival and because StriX’ play was genuinely scummy/lurky. Regardless, he did not move his vote, didn’t seem to manipulate the bandwagon, and did not OMGUS Corazons pressure. OmniEulogy posted a case on Strix and voted for him for completely legitimate reasons. Admittedly his wording preceding his vote was a bit muddled, which Jamp points out. I do not get anything from Omni’s vote. Corazon was the nail in the coffin for StriX. So long as nobody left the Strix wagon, there is pretty much no way that five votes will land anywhere else. If Corazon is scum, this would be a very bold move as he is taking responsibility for a mislynch. Regardless, Corazon is so active he is not to be pursued yet. | ||
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Thank Christ you managed to post a will on time, as I thought I still had 10-15 minutes, and Mocsta was a no show. | ||
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It's also got my analysis spoilered on the same post. I'm heading to the gym, I've been sitting here waiting for the NK for five hours. I'll probably head to the beach later as well, so my activity will go down in the next 5-8 hours. Mocsta did you have a mislynch analysis ready to go? | ||
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@Mocsta Omni's post you quoted was ridiculous, and made me epic mad. The fact that you decided to support it makes me both confused and furious. I removed myself from the math so that my point could not be discounted. If I included myself in the math it would be me claiming town. By excluding myself I was removing the temptation of a townie to ignore the logic in my post as it could be interpreted as me claiming town. Soft claiming town is terrible, or so I hear? I was doing the thinking for you, any town reading it should not be applying this math to me anyway, as I was the one that posted it. I was not weakening my position in anyone's eyes unless they were stupid enough to think town reads on myself were legit. It was a transparent play, I can expect this misinterpretation from Omni but not from you. WTF? | ||
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Mocsta I am confused as to what is happening in your dialogue with Sylencia, so I'll butt out and let this run it's course. When you want an explanation just holla. I hope the rest of you are reading the thread or sleeping, because this much activity after an NK is sort of unacceptable. We have a lot of information to sift through (more than ever before!), why would everyone be inactive? | ||
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- myself - Mocsta - Sylencia (without a lot of convincing) - TeMiL (though I may vote for him if we come to the conclusion that it's better for town) Which leaves: - Jampi - Zare - Omni I don't want to hunt Omni if I can avoid it, but if he's left alone I might make a case, depending on whether I'm busy with pressuring one of the other two. Lynching Omni does have the benefit of clearing Zare's name if he flips red. Who will you NOT be pursuing? Who is left? | ||
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Looking at the possible setups, there are only four: Goon + Roleblocker, Jailkeeper + Cop, five Townies 2 Goons, Cop, six Townies 2 Goons, Jailkeeper, six Townies Goon + Roleblocker, seven Townies In scenario one we have either a player that did not post night actions (TeMiL?), or a person not revealing that they were roleblocked. I'm not sure on whether it is well known if revealing a roleblock is a solid move in this setup (or whether it's a solid move at all). Omni you revealed immediately, do you have this information? I imagine that it is the right play, but I admit I don't have a good understanding of this part of the game. In scenario two Omni is lying, which probably means scum. This scenario is unlikely as it is bloody risky for a scum to do this just to flush out a blue role. In scenario three the jailkeeper might have read Omni as scum, and JKed him, but the more logical play would to be jailing defensively. This scenario is unlikely, as it would mean the JK is playing far less than optimally (there were only really three potential NK targets, where as there were six potential roleblockers. In scenario four the scum thought the best chance of stopping a blue action was by roleblocking Omni. Does anyone know of any slips Omni has made that would make him look blue? I haven't seen any. They may have thought him a likely cop check (though they don't know whether there is a cop). This scenario is unlikely. Interestingly, the town blue roles have more information than the rest of us (if any). A JK can rule out two and four, as well as know there is a 50% base chance of Omni lying if the JK was not the one that roleblocked him (the rest of us only have information granting a 25% base chance). I don't think a JK would jail Omni, as it's the wrong play. Therefore, it is likely that if we have a JK, he knows that Omni is lying. I don't think scum would think Omni is blue. This means that if scum did roleblock him, it was for other reason. I could be wrong on this. If anyone has seen blue slips from Omni, you need to factor this into your analysis of this situation. A cop can rule out scenarios three and four and also has a better base read on Omni's chance of lying. Either we have a bad JK, we have someone hiding the fact they were roleblocked, or Omni is lying. This analysis was on the fly, so if there are holes in it polease point them out. I don't think Jamp's analysis was bad, in fact the information he provided needed to be put down to get everyone less analytic on track. Mocsta you seem pretty grumpy, this is understandable but it won't help your play. | ||
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Okay so it doesn't seem like Mocsta was making the play I thought. I'll reveal. If you have your vote on someone and that person has no chance of being lynched, your vote is not actually doing anything. Functionally, it is the same as voting for a no-lynch, as everyone else will go an lynch someone without your input. When you stayed on jamp, there was no way he was getting lynched, and so not changing you denied us your input on who got lynched. This means we cannot blame you for a mislynch, it's complete disassociation from the actual lynch. Now that I think on it, that means if you flip scum you were probably happy with an Omni or StriX lynch, which would increase the town read on Omni. It does not mean that you are actually wanting a no-lynch. A no-lynch will hardly ever get off the ground in a newbie game. When I described your vote as the equivalent of a no-lynch, I probably should have said it was the equivalent of a no-vote. | ||
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Can you please quote the cop sentence in question? | ||
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And yes, if your voteswitch looked like a pure bandwagon you would have been grilled, but by speaking the truth (that your vote was otherwise redundant, and that you exercised as much control over the lynch as possible under the circumstances) town would be in a better position to assess you, and I at least would have found your response adequate. | ||
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Are we laying this to rest? | ||
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It looked like you were a scum trying to avoid having to continue posting. The only reason you're on my bullet-proof list is because if you are scum and continue to post a lot, you will slip and die. If you fail to maintain your own momentum, my perspective on you will change. I'm going to go browse filters for a while and try and figure out who I'm voting for. I can almost feel the scum laughter as town stagnate to an early grave. @Zare: I appreciate your life infringing on your game, but please make an effort to jump in as much as time will allow. From out perspective life excuses are pretty much wind, despite the fact they are often true. Any scum can claim life problems as an excuse to lurk, it's unverifiable. | ||
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##vote:TeMiL If TeMiL is still hovering over this thread I'd really like to hear his thoughts | ||
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Admittedly, it looks like this was his plan before he received his role. In the posts I read his writing was a little slack, but his grammar seemed better, and his posts were more thought out. Can someone have a quick read and give thoughts? TeMiL's XXXIV filter TeMiL's TL posts | ||
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I would like people not to shut this case down because of the potential OMGUS. Analyse it as of it were coming from someone that was not being voted by Mocsta. A scum would know that there are much easier ways to divert pressure from themselves than OMGUSing the person with the most town momentum. Your case from a glance seems to have both some decent points and some logical limitations. I've got a lot on my plate and I'd like to finish what I was doing before addressing your post. Your justification for removing your suspicions from Mocsta are even weaker. You only say By 'Mocsta' do you means someone else? | ||
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Since the night action I have completed Syl's, Jamp's, Zare's, TeMiL's and now Omni's filters. I am absolutely mentally exhausted, it's as if I've been thinking in circles the entire time. When I come back, I will be checking Mocsta's, which will also be damn exhausting. I am starting to get the feeling that either Syl, Mocsta, or TeMiL are scum. Why you might ask? Because I'm not getting scummy enough reads off anyone else. TeMiL is nearly a null read on account of putting forth absolutely nothing, the main reason he could be scum is because giving us a null to read can only have scummy or not intention behind it. Syl and Mocsta are now being read because I know that they are both capable of gaining town status as scum. Mocsta has to go with an all out town holocaust of activity in order to keep with his previous meta, which basically means his level of activity is a null-read. He does not have a choice as to whether he is active or not. Syl sits on the line of activity that I would call 'optimal scum activity'. He is not a lurker, and he has not need to lie or mislead town. Town has mislead themselves, so his near riskless play puts him in a perfect survival state where all he has to do is post analytic truths and town will detonate on their own. I really don't like having to resort to this kind of thinking, but everyone else is looking townish to me. Everyone seems to be acting within the grounds of what I'd expect from them if they were town. This thinking is reductionist, in that if everyone else is a town read, it is my null reads that draw my attention. This is some epic theory crafting BS, but I'm feeling rather hopeless towards our chance to hit scum otherwise. Mocsta will be the one I look at when I get back, then either Syl or TeMiL depending on what happens between now and then. If someone thinks I'm wrong (and if I'm wrong, I'm very, very wrong), polease correct me. | ||
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That's not an instant win, but it would put it into town favour IMO. It would give us an extra day before lynchorlose, but not really give us any leads as to who is the second scum. It would still be a massive victory for town. | ||
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I change who I pressure a lot, I do not change my vote a lot. So far I have voted TeMiL, and switched to StriX in day one, and voted for TeMiL in day two, though this could change as well if he'd show up and defend himself. I think this voting formula very similar to your own, and I'll disregard it as an honest mistake on your part to think this. I'd also like to point out that atm town is losing, and so not accepting a course of action that leads to a 50% win-rate is silly. We are behind, which in SCII would mean making riskier plays hoping to luck ourselves back into the game. I am yet to see a 50% win-rate option, and if I did see one I would take it immediately. Give me a coin to flip and I would gamble the outcome of this game on it, because right now we are looking at below 50%. What we are actually after is the highest win possibility, which will probably be below 50% anyway I'm sure. Furthermore, while statistics are very useful and I'm grateful we have someone like Sylencia around to produce them, they are currently being misused. You can't just remove your null reads from the equation, they still represent a percentage chance of being scum. Treating TeMiL as useless town when he is pretty much by definition a null read is ridiculous. | ||
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##Vote: Jampidampi I'll go over it more in a few hours but yeah. Also I never really noticed this but if you look at Jampi's filter the person he responded to the most and was pressured by the most was Cora. Cora gets killed before there is any real conclusion. Anyway I'm off to bed cya. @Omni This is lazy sheeping. NK's are not automatically put down on the player that is the most obvious threat to scum, that would make this game damn easy. NK's are a premeditated action that have calculated results, you are simplifying things out of laziness. I don't think Jamp is a terrible lynch, though my designs obviously lay elsewhere. I don't mind people voting for Jamp, but don't make up reasons for doing so if you are only acting out of laziness. | ||
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I know what an NK is, or do you think Omni's insight superior? Treating an NK as anything but what I called it NK's are not automatically put down on the player that is the most obvious threat to scum, that would make this game damn easy. NK's are a premeditated action that have calculated results Would be absolutely fracking retarded. It does not take a scum to know that this is how an NK works, it doesn't even take a particularly well informed town. How do YOU think we should think about NK's? Am I wrong? Do you think it beyond my intelligence to infer this much with both my penchant for theory crafting and the abundance of guides laying around? You don't even know whether I use coaches or not and you assume that I don't know what an NK is? This is like the umpteenth time you have either uncharitably appraised my motive or been incongruous in your understanding of my thoughts. This is the first time it's sounded like you might want to make a case. Your thoughts on me are required anyway, as either you me or Syl die tonight. | ||
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On December 20 2012 12:48 Chromatically wrote: @Spag Our objective as town is to lynch mafia. What we should not be doing is lynching for information instead of lynching mafia. The information gained from a flip is not great enough that we should lynch a townier player. If you look at what shz's post actually says, there's very little actual conclusions that could be drawn. Most of it is just "x is possible scum". All of it is just worrying about the d2 lynch, which we should do on d2 instead of now. I dislike your post saying that we should "expect a town lynch". Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty. Your post reads like you're not going to even try to find scum. Who do you want to lynch right now? @Kickstart Come on, you have to do better than that. You're the most experienced player here and you haven't said anything for 24h. What do you think about my cases on Corazon/FC? And yet this mistake seems to obvious to be made by a scum Mocsta... | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + Town is losing... odd logic? 7 players... 5 - town; 2 - scum... how are we losing? If we vote off a scum player and 1 town dies from NK; we are left Day 3 with 4 (Town) and 1 (Mafia), does not sound like losing to me? Heck, even right now 5 to 2.. it doesnt look like losing.. This is such an interesting perspective you have Spaghetticus. Your rebuttal pertaining to whether town is currently losing is so full of holes it's almost non-existent. If town does not outnumber scum, town loses by definition, check the OP. It follows that in order for scum to ever stand a chance, they must be winning before they are on equal numbers with town. The precise number is up for conversation, but that scum is losing until it has won is absolutely preposterous. I understand the need to have a positive town atmosphere, but we also need to be realistic about what is happening and adjust our strategy to match. I will admit, that if you have more confidence in your scum reads than I do, it would make sense that you think you're winning. I am certain you are more confident in your reads than I am, which means your perspective of whether town is winning would be very different to mine. Your confidence would also explain why you are trying to create a bandwagon with the very response I reply to: You already have the most established bandwagon, and then you post stuff like: Town is in a position to scum hunt.. make a calculated lynch decision...vote as one town... and lynch scum; paving our way to victory. Town can achieve success through determined scum hunting, and joining our vote together. This will set us up for a 4 Town, 1 Mafia Day 3. We need to join our votes together Which is unfortunate because I really want you to be scum so I don't have to address the possibility that this blatant misstep is by accident. F5ed to find yet another arrogant response. Wanna know why I think you are overconfident? BECAUSE ITS NOT A QUOTE FROM ME. LOOK AT THE FRICKING AUTHOR. You are playing fast and lose, and you're making some big mistakes. I know that if I talked to a coach, he'd tell me I need to play less conservative with my reads, but you are batshitcrazyliberal with yours and I think this sort of play will end with a loss for town. For those reading, Mocsta just tried to misquote me on a past game. Instead of quoting me denouncing unconfident play, he quoted a guy called Chromatically denouncing MY unconfident play. He tried to sell you evidence of me adhering to my accepted meta as reasons why I am not. The number of mistakes Mocsta is making is astonishing. Mocsta, if you do not slow down you are going to make a case for us. If you are town you need to think through your posts. If you are a lying town then you are doing it badly. I have no idea how you could misquote me like that by accident, even with the standard errata at the top telling us that it was written by me. If you want absolute proof that my version of events is correct go HERE and search "Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty." You will find that Mocsta has somehow got mixed up, and accidentally made a forgery of a quote by Chromatically . He even had the gall to gloat at my incompetence. But this does not make sense. Unless a scum Mocsta genuinely thought scum were losing at this point, why would he take the risk of forging a quote? My head is melting... I need some time to think... | ||
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This is behind us. I'm not sure we need to continue this discussion on whether town is winning. Your reasoning is ridiculous, but I will drop this topic until there is a good reason to restart it, which is quite possible as I'm going to need to go over these figures again. I don't want people to even consider sheeping Jamp until Omni has addressed my criticism of the following post: ##Vote: Jampidampi I'll go over it more in a few hours but yeah. Also I never really noticed this but if you look at Jampi's filter the person he responded to the most and was pressured by the most was Cora. Cora gets killed before there is any real conclusion. Anyway I'm off to bed cya. Which is @Omni This is lazy sheeping. NK's are not automatically put down on the player that is the most obvious threat to scum, that would make this game damn easy. NK's are a premeditated action that have calculated results, you are simplifying things out of laziness. I don't think Jamp is a terrible lynch, though my designs obviously lay elsewhere. I don't mind people voting for Jamp, but don't make up reasons for doing so if you are only acting out of laziness. Until Omni justifies his vote, this bandwagon only has one person who has explained his voting process. Mocsta is explicitly flaunting his influence even though he has done little to actually earn it. Yes he doesn't come up as a scum-read, but that by no means makes him confirmed town. EVERYTHING HE HAS DONE IS EXPECTED BY HIS META. HE HAS NO CHOICE BUT TO PLAY EXTREMELY ACTIVE. Do not think that just because he says it you need to do it. If he is town he thinks he has a better read than you and needs to mindcontrol you into following. If he is scum he is closing the game out for us by exploiting his influence. Neither of these are good reasons to follow him. Even if he is town I see no reason why he is better at reading than any of us, he spends more time on broad strokes than he does on analysis, as can be seen with the whole 'misquote escapade'. The only reason he would know better than any of us is if he were a blue role, and we know he's not a JK. You can read my resistance to Mocsta's Imperialistic rule as scummy or wary town, I'm not doing this to establish a read so hear my words. If they make sense then polease listen to them. | ||
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@Zare Closing the game out for town. Closing town out of the game. | ||
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I've already detailed my day one switch. We don't need to go over that unless someone makes a case against me (and it'd be bad if it contained this particular aspect of my play). | ||
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- TeMiL - OmniEulogy - JampiDampi - ZarePath I have a preference for TeMiL at this moment in time, and then the rest in order of presentation above. There is a lot of contention in my mind, this is not at all close. My stubbornness in regard to Jampi is more to do with the means by which you present your case, which is from my perspective abusing peripheral and illogical argumentation methods. That does not fly with me, for future reference. When actually looking at the case in question, I don't have any profound disagreement with lynching Jamp, only that I won't do it for someone else's less than adequate reasons. This may look very flimsy, but between the four I'm pretty lost. There is scum in there of that I'm certain, but the diversity of reasons for and against voting any one of these candidates is high, and I don't feel strongly either way. | ||
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I was deliberately excluding Zare, not Jamp. I would happily vote for Jamp but not Zare. My vote will remain on TeMiL for survival reasons. | ||
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Town still has a chance with my death, but you are going to have to have to heed my words, and take the risks, as now town is truly behind. I am cop. I checked Zarepath, and he was clean. My posturing around his lynch was just that. I did not want to have to explain why I was not voting for this incredibly scummy town. Mocsta and Sylencia \were/ clean. That Mocsta tried to switch wagon on to me as soon as someone else decided it was a good idea makes me wonder. Really at this point I think the best play is to admit that if he’s scum, he’s simply a better player and let him win. If he is not scum then all the suspicion is damaging town, and we sort of need to stick to our scummier players. You will not catch Mocsta if he is scum, take the risk and assume he’s town, YOU NEED TO TAKE RISKS. Edit before post: the fact that Mocsta has not realised that taking votes off of Jampi and putting them on me means he’s not trying too hard to change the vote from Jamp. Either he’s incredibly confident he can finish me tomorrow, he wants me around to soak up an NK so his continued existence is not so conspicuous, or he is town with a fairly even read between me and Jamp. I want to believe the third option for the reasons above (any attempt to land a Mocstawhale will be unsuccesful, and letting the better man win if he’s scum). That leaves four out of seven players confirmed town (including myself). After this lynch, so long as I don’t die and I can convince you, at worst it will be four confirmed town vs two scum, which is an easy win. - Spag - Zarepath - Mocsta - Sylencia - OmniEulogy - TeMiL - JampiDampi On top of this, Omni waiting for backup before continuing further gives a town read. If he were scum he’d know he could lead the charge on me without repercussion, and probably seal my fate. This means Jamp and TiMeL as scum team, which actually makes a lot of sense considering how much of our hunting has stuck. The two lurkiest players are scum letting us mob ourselves to death. This still puts Omni in third most scummy position, but killing the other two before him is important. I'll add that because I am cop, this narrows down the possible starting scenarios to either:- one goon + one roleblocker vs Jailkeeper and five VT or two goons vs one cop and six VT In the latter scenario Omni is lying, so if a JK claims we can rule out the possibility of him lying and jail the remaining person, having ruled out the biggest negative read on Omni. You need to do serious endgame turn math before playing this hand though, as you don't want to die before setting the gambit in motion. This game is close, so your actions will be vital. Hope that Syl and Mocsta are town and stop playing around the possibility of them being scum, otherwise town stand zero chance. | ||
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Nobody can counter claim cop without actually being scum. If anyone does, lynch me and then them. This over-rides any other read I've made, as I'm confident it won't come to fruition. That would be some bold scum that. | ||
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##vote:JampiDampi | ||
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I went LAL because I did not want to have to waste reads on lurkers. The middle ground is the sweet-spot where I could move to shut down anything a red-flip would do, but also control town if they were looking at mislynching them. Out of Omni and Zare, I chose Zare because I did not think I could save Omni if he flipped green. I'd already made efforts to communicate that my reads on him would be close to null, as he always looks scummy to me even if he is town. This left the incredibly scummy Zare, who I inspected. If you read his filter, there is no way I could excuse his behaviour so my only option was to make noise about other players. ZARE IS CONFIRMED TOWN, DONT YOU DARE DOUBT THIS FOR A SECOND WHEN I FLIP COP. | ||
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Breadcrumbs... I really wish I did. When I realised that placing breadcrumbs as a cop would probably be advisable, I was also damn lazy. I said the word "polease" instead of "please" in three posts, but this is incredibly weak, I should have been more organised. I'm sorry to disappoint. I brought this lynch upon myself. | ||
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Thank you Dandel Ion for hosting the game, Your efforts went unsung during the game as it would just be additional fluff, but I really appreciate your efforts. Go town! | ||
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Very well played Syl! I'd have voted Jamp in the end as well Moc and Zare, so don't worry take the end-game too hard! | ||
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A lot of stuff got ignored when it shouldn't have, I need to improve my filtering method, and stick to my cases/reads a little harder instead of posting a little bit on everyone. In retrospect, when I found out TeMiL was scum I should have gone over Syl again, but hindsight 20/20 eh? In regard to whether I should have been lynched: DP walked me through some reasoning and I agree with him that lynching an uncountered cop-claim seems bad. Mafia can't let a cop live, so they soak up the NK. If it's a false claim you will know with more certainty the next day to lynch them. This, on top of my high level of activity probably should have dissuaded town. That being said, I woulda lynched me... so I don't blame anyone for it. | ||
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For those reading, Mocsta just tried to misquote me on a past game. Instead of quoting me denouncing unconfident play, he quoted a guy called Chromatically denouncing MY unconfident play. He tried to sell you evidence of me adhering to my accepted meta as reasons why I am not. The number of mistakes Mocsta is making is astonishing. Mocsta, if you do not slow down you are going to make a case for us. If you are town you need to think through your posts. If you are a lying town then you are doing it badly. I have no idea how you could misquote me like that by accident, even with the standard errata at the top telling us that it was written by me. If you want absolute proof that my version of events is correct go HERE and search "Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty." You will find that Mocsta has somehow got mixed up, and accidentally made a forgery of a quote by Chromatically . He even had the gall to gloat at my incompetence. But this does not make sense. Unless a scum Mocsta genuinely thought scum were losing at this point, why would he take the risk of forging a quote? My head is melting... I need some time to think... Is that quote by me illustrating a point I made that was nonsense, or illustrating that what Mocsta misquoted was nonsense? I have a feeling it's the former, but I would like to know for certain. If my post was the nonsense, what in particular about it is nonsensical to you? Regarding the cop lynch, I understand I made some BIIIIIG fuckups. It wasn't the right call to lynch me, but at the time I actually agreed that I deserved to be lynched on merit of the faux pas count. Town didn't think the math through, but I completely understand just how confusing I was being with the name confusions etc. | ||
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