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I'm gonna go play some RL for awhile (or Civ5, I haven't decided XD).
Since the night action I have completed Syl's, Jamp's, Zare's, TeMiL's and now Omni's filters. I am absolutely mentally exhausted, it's as if I've been thinking in circles the entire time. When I come back, I will be checking Mocsta's, which will also be damn exhausting.
I am starting to get the feeling that either Syl, Mocsta, or TeMiL are scum. Why you might ask? Because I'm not getting scummy enough reads off anyone else. TeMiL is nearly a null read on account of putting forth absolutely nothing, the main reason he could be scum is because giving us a null to read can only have scummy or not intention behind it.
Syl and Mocsta are now being read because I know that they are both capable of gaining town status as scum.
Mocsta has to go with an all out town holocaust of activity in order to keep with his previous meta, which basically means his level of activity is a null-read. He does not have a choice as to whether he is active or not.
Syl sits on the line of activity that I would call 'optimal scum activity'. He is not a lurker, and he has not need to lie or mislead town. Town has mislead themselves, so his near riskless play puts him in a perfect survival state where all he has to do is post analytic truths and town will detonate on their own.
I really don't like having to resort to this kind of thinking, but everyone else is looking townish to me. Everyone seems to be acting within the grounds of what I'd expect from them if they were town. This thinking is reductionist, in that if everyone else is a town read, it is my null reads that draw my attention. This is some epic theory crafting BS, but I'm feeling rather hopeless towards our chance to hit scum otherwise.
Mocsta will be the one I look at when I get back, then either Syl or TeMiL depending on what happens between now and then. If someone thinks I'm wrong (and if I'm wrong, I'm very, very wrong), polease correct me.
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Oh, you are talking about lynching TeMiL and him being scum?
That's not an instant win, but it would put it into town favour IMO. It would give us an extra day before lynchorlose, but not really give us any leads as to who is the second scum. It would still be a massive victory for town.
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@Mocsta.
I change who I pressure a lot, I do not change my vote a lot. So far I have voted TeMiL, and switched to StriX in day one, and voted for TeMiL in day two, though this could change as well if he'd show up and defend himself. I think this voting formula very similar to your own, and I'll disregard it as an honest mistake on your part to think this.
I'd also like to point out that atm town is losing, and so not accepting a course of action that leads to a 50% win-rate is silly. We are behind, which in SCII would mean making riskier plays hoping to luck ourselves back into the game. I am yet to see a 50% win-rate option, and if I did see one I would take it immediately. Give me a coin to flip and I would gamble the outcome of this game on it, because right now we are looking at below 50%. What we are actually after is the highest win possibility, which will probably be below 50% anyway I'm sure.
Furthermore, while statistics are very useful and I'm grateful we have someone like Sylencia around to produce them, they are currently being misused. You can't just remove your null reads from the equation, they still represent a percentage chance of being scum. Treating TeMiL as useless town when he is pretty much by definition a null read is ridiculous.
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##Vote: Jampidampi
I'll go over it more in a few hours but yeah. Also I never really noticed this but if you look at Jampi's filter the person he responded to the most and was pressured by the most was Cora. Cora gets killed before there is any real conclusion.
Anyway I'm off to bed cya.
@Omni
This is lazy sheeping. NK's are not automatically put down on the player that is the most obvious threat to scum, that would make this game damn easy. NK's are a premeditated action that have calculated results, you are simplifying things out of laziness. I don't think Jamp is a terrible lynch, though my designs obviously lay elsewhere. I don't mind people voting for Jamp, but don't make up reasons for doing so if you are only acting out of laziness.
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Is this sarcasm? You are allowing the imagination to go almost anywhere with your provocative comments.
I know what an NK is, or do you think Omni's insight superior? Treating an NK as anything but what I called it
NK's are not automatically put down on the player that is the most obvious threat to scum, that would make this game damn easy. NK's are a premeditated action that have calculated results
Would be absolutely fracking retarded. It does not take a scum to know that this is how an NK works, it doesn't even take a particularly well informed town.
How do YOU think we should think about NK's? Am I wrong? Do you think it beyond my intelligence to infer this much with both my penchant for theory crafting and the abundance of guides laying around? You don't even know whether I use coaches or not and you assume that I don't know what an NK is? This is like the umpteenth time you have either uncharitably appraised my motive or been incongruous in your understanding of my thoughts.
This is the first time it's sounded like you might want to make a case. Your thoughts on me are required anyway, as either you me or Syl die tonight.
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On December 20 2012 12:48 Chromatically wrote:
@Spag
Our objective as town is to lynch mafia. What we should not be doing is lynching for information instead of lynching mafia. The information gained from a flip is not great enough that we should lynch a townier player. If you look at what shz's post actually says, there's very little actual conclusions that could be drawn. Most of it is just "x is possible scum". All of it is just worrying about the d2 lynch, which we should do on d2 instead of now.
I dislike your post saying that we should "expect a town lynch". Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty. Your post reads like you're not going to even try to find scum.
Who do you want to lynch right now?
@Kickstart
Come on, you have to do better than that. You're the most experienced player here and you haven't said anything for 24h. What do you think about my cases on Corazon/FC?
And yet this mistake seems to obvious to be made by a scum Mocsta...
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+ Show Spoiler +Town is losing... odd logic? 7 players... 5 - town; 2 - scum... how are we losing?
If we vote off a scum player and 1 town dies from NK; we are left Day 3 with 4 (Town) and 1 (Mafia), does not sound like losing to me? Heck, even right now 5 to 2.. it doesnt look like losing.. This is such an interesting perspective you have Spaghetticus.
Your rebuttal pertaining to whether town is currently losing is so full of holes it's almost non-existent. If town does not outnumber scum, town loses by definition, check the OP. It follows that in order for scum to ever stand a chance, they must be winning before they are on equal numbers with town. The precise number is up for conversation, but that scum is losing until it has won is absolutely preposterous. I understand the need to have a positive town atmosphere, but we also need to be realistic about what is happening and adjust our strategy to match.
I will admit, that if you have more confidence in your scum reads than I do, it would make sense that you think you're winning. I am certain you are more confident in your reads than I am, which means your perspective of whether town is winning would be very different to mine.
Your confidence would also explain why you are trying to create a bandwagon with the very response I reply to:
You already have the most established bandwagon, and then you post stuff like:
Town is in a position to scum hunt.. make a calculated lynch decision...vote as one town... and lynch scum; paving our way to victory.
Town can achieve success through determined scum hunting, and joining our vote together.
This will set us up for a 4 Town, 1 Mafia Day 3. We need to join our votes together
Which is unfortunate because I really want you to be scum so I don't have to address the possibility that this blatant misstep is by accident.
F5ed to find yet another arrogant response. Wanna know why I think you are overconfident? BECAUSE ITS NOT A QUOTE FROM ME. LOOK AT THE FRICKING AUTHOR. You are playing fast and lose, and you're making some big mistakes. I know that if I talked to a coach, he'd tell me I need to play less conservative with my reads, but you are batshitcrazyliberal with yours and I think this sort of play will end with a loss for town.
For those reading, Mocsta just tried to misquote me on a past game. Instead of quoting me denouncing unconfident play, he quoted a guy called Chromatically denouncing MY unconfident play. He tried to sell you evidence of me adhering to my accepted meta as reasons why I am not.
The number of mistakes Mocsta is making is astonishing. Mocsta, if you do not slow down you are going to make a case for us. If you are town you need to think through your posts. If you are a lying town then you are doing it badly. I have no idea how you could misquote me like that by accident, even with the standard errata at the top telling us that it was written by me. If you want absolute proof that my version of events is correct go HERE and search "Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty." You will find that Mocsta has somehow got mixed up, and accidentally made a forgery of a quote by Chromatically . He even had the gall to gloat at my incompetence.
But this does not make sense. Unless a scum Mocsta genuinely thought scum were losing at this point, why would he take the risk of forging a quote? My head is melting... I need some time to think...
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Thank Christ... that was doing my head in. That's good enough for me. Don't down play the significance of that event... I had very good reason to think you blatantly lying. You were only blatantly mistaken. The post you actually quoted was me quoting his post to address it, but using actual quotation marks instead of BBcode because I was too lazy at that point to learn. If you had have paid attention to what I was writing instead of looking for ways to feed your confirmation bias, this misdemeanor would have never happened.
This is behind us.
I'm not sure we need to continue this discussion on whether town is winning. Your reasoning is ridiculous, but I will drop this topic until there is a good reason to restart it, which is quite possible as I'm going to need to go over these figures again.
I don't want people to even consider sheeping Jamp until Omni has addressed my criticism of the following post:
##Vote: Jampidampi
I'll go over it more in a few hours but yeah. Also I never really noticed this but if you look at Jampi's filter the person he responded to the most and was pressured by the most was Cora. Cora gets killed before there is any real conclusion.
Anyway I'm off to bed cya.
Which is
@Omni
This is lazy sheeping. NK's are not automatically put down on the player that is the most obvious threat to scum, that would make this game damn easy. NK's are a premeditated action that have calculated results, you are simplifying things out of laziness. I don't think Jamp is a terrible lynch, though my designs obviously lay elsewhere. I don't mind people voting for Jamp, but don't make up reasons for doing so if you are only acting out of laziness.
Until Omni justifies his vote, this bandwagon only has one person who has explained his voting process. Mocsta is explicitly flaunting his influence even though he has done little to actually earn it. Yes he doesn't come up as a scum-read, but that by no means makes him confirmed town.
EVERYTHING HE HAS DONE IS EXPECTED BY HIS META. HE HAS NO CHOICE BUT TO PLAY EXTREMELY ACTIVE.
Do not think that just because he says it you need to do it.
If he is town he thinks he has a better read than you and needs to mindcontrol you into following.
If he is scum he is closing the game out for us by exploiting his influence.
Neither of these are good reasons to follow him.
Even if he is town I see no reason why he is better at reading than any of us, he spends more time on broad strokes than he does on analysis, as can be seen with the whole 'misquote escapade'. The only reason he would know better than any of us is if he were a blue role, and we know he's not a JK.
You can read my resistance to Mocsta's Imperialistic rule as scummy or wary town, I'm not doing this to establish a read so hear my words. If they make sense then polease listen to them.
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If you think on your feet unlike Omni, we won't need to fight as I will have won (though I guess this is not to the mutual exclusion of Mocsta's agenda).
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I would prefer any of the other three (including Jamp), but would not be entirely opposed to lynching Zare. I think there are better targets.
@Zare
Closing the game out for town. Closing town out of the game.
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I didn't even call you scum... I asked you to justify your vote... ... ... so do it.
I've already detailed my day one switch. We don't need to go over that unless someone makes a case against me (and it'd be bad if it contained this particular aspect of my play).
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I've never use the phrase before. I was trying it out. Faaaark.
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Cheers Mocsta. I see Syl's words have moved you, I'll endeavor to be so objective.
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I could be persuaded to vote for:
- TeMiL
- OmniEulogy
- JampiDampi
- ZarePath
I have a preference for TeMiL at this moment in time, and then the rest in order of presentation above. There is a lot of contention in my mind, this is not at all close. My stubbornness in regard to Jampi is more to do with the means by which you present your case, which is from my perspective abusing peripheral and illogical argumentation methods. That does not fly with me, for future reference.
When actually looking at the case in question, I don't have any profound disagreement with lynching Jamp, only that I won't do it for someone else's less than adequate reasons. This may look very flimsy, but between the four I'm pretty lost. There is scum in there of that I'm certain, but the diversity of reasons for and against voting any one of these candidates is high, and I don't feel strongly either way.
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I am going to bed. My preferred candidates are Omni, Zare, and TeMiL, and I will settle for any of them. I'll try and get up in three hours so I can influence the lynch if it is not going the way I intend. I have certain changes to my plan if particular events happen.
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If your wagon is real, change your votes now so I can write notes please.
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I'll start writing them now, and post them if I take lead position. My mistakes seem unsalvageable.
I was deliberately excluding Zare, not Jamp. I would happily vote for Jamp but not Zare. My vote will remain on TeMiL for survival reasons.
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Okay bandwagon has started, and I'm dead certain this will be a killing blow. Though if you could be convinced by this post to not lynch me, that would put town in much better stead, I understand it comes from the lips of a strong suspect and it will only look like WIFOM until after my death.
Town still has a chance with my death, but you are going to have to have to heed my words, and take the risks, as now town is truly behind.
I am cop. I checked Zarepath, and he was clean. My posturing around his lynch was just that. I did not want to have to explain why I was not voting for this incredibly scummy town.
Mocsta and Sylencia \were/ clean. That Mocsta tried to switch wagon on to me as soon as someone else decided it was a good idea makes me wonder. Really at this point I think the best play is to admit that if he’s scum, he’s simply a better player and let him win. If he is not scum then all the suspicion is damaging town, and we sort of need to stick to our scummier players. You will not catch Mocsta if he is scum, take the risk and assume he’s town, YOU NEED TO TAKE RISKS.
Edit before post: the fact that Mocsta has not realised that taking votes off of Jampi and putting them on me means he’s not trying too hard to change the vote from Jamp. Either he’s incredibly confident he can finish me tomorrow, he wants me around to soak up an NK so his continued existence is not so conspicuous, or he is town with a fairly even read between me and Jamp. I want to believe the third option for the reasons above (any attempt to land a Mocstawhale will be unsuccesful, and letting the better man win if he’s scum).
That leaves four out of seven players confirmed town (including myself). After this lynch, so long as I don’t die and I can convince you, at worst it will be four confirmed town vs two scum, which is an easy win.
- Spag
- Zarepath
- Mocsta
- Sylencia
- OmniEulogy
- TeMiL
- JampiDampi
On top of this, Omni waiting for backup before continuing further gives a town read. If he were scum he’d know he could lead the charge on me without repercussion, and probably seal my fate. This means Jamp and TiMeL as scum team, which actually makes a lot of sense considering how much of our hunting has stuck. The two lurkiest players are scum letting us mob ourselves to death. This still puts Omni in third most scummy position, but killing the other two before him is important. I'll add that because I am cop, this narrows down the possible starting scenarios to either:-
one goon + one roleblocker vs Jailkeeper and five VT
or
two goons vs one cop and six VT
In the latter scenario Omni is lying, so if a JK claims we can rule out the possibility of him lying and jail the remaining person, having ruled out the biggest negative read on Omni. You need to do serious endgame turn math before playing this hand though, as you don't want to die before setting the gambit in motion. This game is close, so your actions will be vital. Hope that Syl and Mocsta are town and stop playing around the possibility of them being scum, otherwise town stand zero chance.
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EBWOP: On top of this, the fact Omni was the only one that was roleblocked means we can infer that if there is a JK, there was an RB that nobody claimed, which means it was probably on TeMiL, which would weaken the scum read on TeMiL as a scum would not be RBed. This makes me say that Jamp is top scum, then TeMiL, and then Omni. If the scum do not all reside within these three individuals, any chance of a town win is an extreme long shot. Hit Jamp day two , and then proceed with probably TeMiL while JKing Omni, then hit Omni if the game is not already won.
Nobody can counter claim cop without actually being scum. If anyone does, lynch me and then them. This over-rides any other read I've made, as I'm confident it won't come to fruition. That would be some bold scum that.
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EPT
