Newbie Mini Mafia XXXIV - Page 5

On January 04 2013 22:41 TeMiL wrote:
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answering mocsta questions:
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(1) So far your post count reads as useless fluff. Why should I not vote for you?
am a really newbie in this game, i you check others mafia games you wouldnt find me anywhere. if i get voted maybe i can loose any interest of this game but in the other case i will learn more and be more active.

(2) "growing in my role" What does this mean? (I understand English is not your first language)
i mean i can learn what to do and be a better player each day. right now am like a little boy in his first class, i want to learn a lot but is difficult to be attached every hour. ill try to change that.


answering others post
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On January 04 2013 14:24 StriX wrote:
2. Feel like we're going a bit easy on TeMiL and I'd like to vote to lynch him right now. I delayed my vote due to suspecting lurking was due to timezone issues, however, I feel like we've given him long enough to contribute. He is also the only one to not respond to Mocsta's first set of questions.
As an idea Mocsta could you may

##Vote TeMil
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i answer both rounds of questions and ive just finished the third. my 2 post where those questions and i couldnt write more because i went back home, forgot my celphone with internet connection and couldnt write any post until now. well ill hope u can change your mind.
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On January 04 2013 14:44 OmniEulogy wrote:
@StriX if you think that qualifies you as a contributor in any discussion to this point I apologize. How about you update us with your thoughts. Right now in terms of contribution imo from the bottom up its Temil - Strix/Jampi - everybody else.
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ill change your thoughts about me... can i?
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On January 04 2013 15:26 cDgCorazon wrote:
In all honesty, I think voting TeMiL right now is a pretty useless move. I think a FoS (Finger of Suspicion) towards TeMiL can be more helpful than just voting TeMiL and being done with the analysis. Voting someone that is lurking this early in the game is really just being lazy, and does not help out town at all.
.
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thanks :D actually i didnt lurker at all if u consider lurker a gamer that only entered 3 times.
right now am reading everything and with my phone back ill be writing every minute
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On January 04 2013 21:12 StriX wrote:
TeMiL is currently the undisputedly biggest lurker.
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until today . like i said i will practicing my english a lot! give an opportunity thats all
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On January 04 2013 21:59 StriX wrote:
##unvote TeMiL
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this was unespected, looks like cDgCorazon makes you change your vote?
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On January 04 2013 22:05 Spaghetticus wrote:
#Vote: TeMiL
This vote is conditional but deadly serious. Contribute.
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ill contribute :D


this is all right now.
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OMG... Before I played Newbie 33.. I read through Newbie 32... there was this guy.. AxelGreaser... you have just given me back nightmares of him.. Luckily Yamato isnt playing, he would probably delete his team liquid account.
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In all seriousness, you have made my life easier today.
I was about to start reading through filters, consolidating my thought process, to make a case as promised to cDgCorazon and Sylencia.
But... your post, has made me throw that out the window
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##Vote: TeMiL
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(1) You have had the lowest post contribution in 30hrs of play. No excuses
(2) All your posts are fluff, and then your riposte to accusations of fluff, is simply fluffx2 with a

Does this make you mafia?
• NO, it does guarantee you are mafia.
Does this make you absolutely useless and unreliable town?
• YES, this is guaranteed.

Town,
I am voting TeMiL, because, his actions have proven to be useless and unreliable.
(Yes, I use proven to a person with a 1 page filter, that is how strongly I feel)

I ask you this... if we were down to 3 candidates, YOU (Town), X (Scum) and TeMiL... can you trust TeMiL to vote for X?

I already know from his last post, the answer is no, I cant rely on his innocence as town, I can't rely on his skill to scum hunt, and I certainly can not rely on his ability to establish a vote.

but... lets take a look at the flip side and counter my argument.
(1) Do we care if we can rely on him, we are not down to 3 candidates?
(2) Do you not have a better scum read you can target (instead of lurker bait), as you advocate others to do?
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Well..
(1) Agreed, but there has been no stand out lynch candidate thus far. Thus, for Day1 it is highly likely TeMiL might be the hammer vote to send someone home... someone who could be Town.. Are you confident enough on YOUR scum read to risk this happening?
(2) Agreed, I had a better scum read prior to TeMiL posting, I was just about to read the filter. BUT, the risks to me from (1) are too extreme. We have limited players, 7 townies, every player counts. If TeMiL hammered a townie home, and then a townie is dropped off from Night Kill, Day 2 starts with 2 mafia and 5 townies; which is going to signficantly reduce town odds.
I am looking at the big picture here, and lynching a ?possible town? TeMiL to me is less risk long term than lynching my scum read, who may also be a town flip.

Are you confident enough on YOUR scum read to risk this happening?

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P.S.
Just refreshed to see if anything new before posted, and saw this beauty.
Case in Point.
or as I have always wanted to say since doing Trigonometry in high school.

Q.E.D
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On January 04 2013 23:14 TeMiL wrote:
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On January 04 2013 22:49 zarepath wrote:
TeMiL, what do you think about my earlier analysis of Sylencia?
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u have something agains australians or isjust causality to target him?
looks like you now how to analyse a gamer.

its a good brief of course and thanks to made me read it again

I do not like this as a platform for analysis on TeMiL. He spouts nonsense and is in my eyes an empty slot. Nothing he has said has been influential, and thus if he is scum he is entirely ineffective at promoting his agenda. This does make me feel a little cross saying this, as I'd have liked him mod-killed, but if TeMiL is scum you won't catch him by analysing his posts, and by ignoring him you would be creating a town environment of 6/1, which is town favoured. If he is town then you are wasting your time on him, and the current numbers would be 5/2 regardless. My understanding gives no explanation of how I intend on actually catching him if he is scum, I guess I'm hoping that over time, we will have more information to work with.

If anyone wants to attack TeMiL, then I would request that they first address my reasoning above. My conclusion is that regardless of his alignment, there is currently no point in pursuing a case against TeMiL.

If Temil is scum, there is another teammate to worry about. All that needs to happen is that Temil listens to them, and bandwagon to the appropriate vote. It is not 6/1 as you say it is, it would still be 6/2. You have to remember that while he has no influence in our discussions, he still holds a vote. If he is scum, that is a potentially powerful vote.

If Temil is town, no one is guiding him. He will not be voting in a very rational manner, he will not be reading our posts and cases, instead making his own (as you can see from his posts, he has made a few random accusations at you and Jampi) and voting off that. This is NOT the situation we want to be in, because if we reach a stalemate during the next vote, we would have to see how Temil votes.

Assuming we have 2 scum and a townie on one person, and townies voting on town, we would be leaving it up to a 50/50 chance he understands the situation, and votes the right one. Not the best odds.

Taking it further if he is town: He probably won't be killed because he is a liability to town. You're now in a 3-2 situation. Do you want to have Temil be the decider of the game?

This is sound analysis, you are really speaking my language with this post.

His vote is actually more powerful since he doesn't have to justify it in any way.

In regard to influence it is 6/1, but in terms of voting it is more like 6/2.5 (2.5 is mean to represent TemiL's more powerful vote, it's more powerful than a single vote but not as powerful as two).

TeMiL holding the balance of power as town does not worry me. Scum has exactly the same handicap in their voting, they have no clue where his vote will land. Approximately the same options for circumvention are available to both scum and town. Scum have more solid powers of premeditation, and can therefore invest more into outcome certainty, but this commitment to a lynch comes at a price of providing information. For town, I know I will be micromanaging the lynch to ensure one of my reads goes down, and I expect other town will want to do the same.

You are correct in assessing TeMiL as a detriment to town, the question now becomes whether this negative is outweighed by anyone else's play.

Oh crap. There are no vigilantes this game. A vigikill would be perfect for this occasion. I have actually been hoping that there was a vigilante present and listening, but I guess this goes to show I should pay more attention to the OP. There are also no medics... This makes Mocsta's fate almost certain...

How frustrating.

Regardless, your analysis is impressive Syl, this improves your standing substantially in my eyes. I am wary of you deliberately catering to the known disposition of one of your threats, but that is good play for both town and scum.

My justification for switching to StiX.

This seems really obvious to me, but that's the benefit of introspection I guess.

I switched to StriX as soon as Mocsta switched to Omni. StriX was a lurker that had not proving as analytic and direct as Jamp when there had been meta expectations of this type of performance. I had already ruled out voting for Jamp, and had already started making my concerns known about voting for TeMiL. While my vote had been on TeMiL previously, it was only put on him that early in order to pressure (I realise this was a mistake). If I had have held on to my vote until later, and then voted StriX, this would have been less townish as I would not be using my votethreat as a resource, but also would not have called any attention to me whatsoever.
When Mocsta switched, TeMiL was no longer on the chopping block at all, by keeping my vote on him I was basically giving a null read of my intentions: a no-lynch. There were three options:

- vote StriX

- vote Omni

- vote Jamp

As already mentioned I thought StriX a superior lynch to Jamp. Other than lurking, StriX was actually coming off as mild to moderate scum. At least Jamp is precise with his few words. This made my options either StriX or Omni. I have immense difficulty reading Omni's play as anything but scummy, but this is his meta and there is little I can do about it. He has also actually posted, and with my hard-line LAL adherence I both wanted and was forced to vote for StriX.

I'm not sure if this is an exact repeat of the 1:1 hypothesis from XXXIII, as I was dead and only skimmed over it.


Basically, unless we have very bold scum, I believe there was at most one scum voting for StiX. This means that if Jamp, Omni, or Corazon flip scum, you can increase your town reads on the other two. I do not include myself in this equation so as to remove the possibility of scum motive from my post. I am not implying you should discount me if any of these three flip scum, and if I flip scum, you should completely ignore this post.

This also does not imply that there was definitely one scum on the StiX wagon. There could be two distributed among Jami and Omni.

It does imply that there was at least one voting for either Jami or Omni, though this is not a very strong claim.