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Temil Town, Mislynch: 2-2 after night action, we lose.
Temil Town, Scum lynch: 3-1 after night action, MYLO.
Temil Scum, Mislynch: 3-1 after night action, MYLO.
Temil Scum, Scum lynch: We win (probably wishful thinking at this point)
If we lynch Temil:
Town: 3-2, MYLO
Scum: 4-1
I personally don't think this recalculation is worth it because he will be replaced if he doesn't vote, but since you asked:
Assuming probability of a mislynch is 5/6 if Temil is scum and 4/6 if Temil is Town (aka completely random):
Temil Town, Mislynch: 5/7*4/6 = 20/42
Temil Town, lynch: 5/7*2/6 = 10/42
Temil Scum, mislynch: 2/7*5/6 = 10/42
Temil Scum, lynch: 2/7*1/6: 2/42
40/42 chance we lose? I'm not 100% if my calculation is right there, but that's a damn high percentage if you take it like that.
Also, I'm not even sure if this calculation is relevant anymore, because he will be replaced if he doesn't vote.
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Right, I see what you were asking about now, and your probabilities are right. However, you have to factor in that if you keep him in, you are keeping him in in a MYLO situation if we mislynch someone else, because the chances he gets killed off by scum is so low. This goes back to your original case of asking 'Do you want to bring Temil into that kind of situation?'
If you don't mind, then voting someone else is the better option. If you do mind though, you'd have to consider the probability you win after keeping him to day 3.
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I'll look over everything once I get home, I left home about an hour ago and will be back in about 3 hours.
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Jesus, we're trying to find scum here, I just got home so this is what I am going to do. First, I am going to read jampi's filter, and then I am going to read Omni's filter. Then I am going to decide on who I will place my vote for, for now, where I will then listen to what you two say.
Stop having in-fights, it's hurting us more than it's helping.
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So basically, for jampi, I already did him for Day 1, so adding to it for day 2:
On January 06 2013 20:30 jampidampi wrote:This is curious. Why would OmniEulogy be roleblocked? A jailkeeper would target someone he believes will be killed. Scum had no motivation to kill Omni, because he was the other suspicious player D1 and thus would be pressured at least N1, if not D2 potentially leading to another misslynch. Many pointed that if StriX flips town (which he did), Omni would be very suspicious. A jailkeeper could also potentially target a scumread in hopes that a) he is scum and b) he carries out the nightkill. Even if he was 100% sure that Omni was scum, that would still only lead to 50/50 chance of blocking the kill. Thus I don't this is likely. A scum roleblocker would target Omni if he thought he had a blue role. A scum roleblocker might target Omni in hopes that he claims and someone suspects this claim. @All Should townies always claim being roleblocked in this setup? Do you think the scum roleblocker would target Omni? Or do think he faked the claim? Or do you have any better reasoning for a jailkeeper to target Omni?
This is attempted analysis, but it doesn't say anything at all. Doesn't state if he thinks it's a RB or JK, it's just statements which could have been drawn pretty easily by anyone.
The case on Mocsta is the only other big post on day 2, it's not really a solid case either. It honestly rates about the same level as Strix's case he posted which I said was weak on Day 1 as well.
On January 03 2013 16:25 jampidampi wrote:By not being suspicious. If they are careful and appear as townies, we don't have a way of identifying them as scum. Just flying under the radar while townies aggressively blame eachother leading to a misslynch is a perfect mafia D1.
Jampi, you're flying under the radar more than pretty much anyone here. Are you following your own advice or are you just playing badly?
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Omni:
Again, from day 1 I wasn't happy with the combination of sentences here:
On January 05 2013 05:46 OmniEulogy wrote:
Alright, I'm not sure if I can get the whole thing out in under an hour so I'm going to make a summary for you Jampi so we can talk about it a bit while I continue to write up the bigger one.
I'll start with the people I don't think we should vote for in this lynch.
I believe Mocsta and Spag should be free of suspicion for this lynch entirely.
TeMiL and StriX I believe we should wait until D2 TeMiL I think is just bad town and I don't think a vote on him is the BEST we could do.
StriX says he makes long analytical posts. I'm waiting to see one. He hasn't delivered in 48 hours and I am most likely going to put my vote on him.
Makes absolutely no sense, not sure if he suddenly forgot he was going to vote Strix from the start.
On January 05 2013 09:29 OmniEulogy wrote:
I should also add on, and I fking HATE to say this but I need to. If I am right about StriX and he is scum. This is EXACTLY what his scum buddy would need to do to get him off the firing line. Create massive confusion with an hour left in D1 and save his mafia buddy.
On January 05 2013 09:47 OmniEulogy wrote:
@Syl I know, I really wanted to avoid even mentioning an association case.
Why even bring up the association case then? It's like a weak way to reinforce Strix's guilt onto others, and it was completely avoidable by simply saying "I think Mocsta did this to confuse everyone and cause an easy mislynch."
After the mislynch, I don't understand why he thinks there was no chance of him being voted out - the case against him could've easily swayed town to vote, and unless the numbers weren't going to add up to his lynching - this could be a slip. But, I don't see how one could guarantee that, so probably not.
Day 2, roleblocking time.
Mod question asked, pretty sure it's a useless question because there is no real reason for OE to be RB'd unless he made blue slips - didn't see any. JK I can understand if they followed Spag's advice from the previous night. Having no fear of being lynched D1 is not a blue tell, because you are just as vulnerable to being lynched as anyone else. The worst thing about being blue in that situation is that if you do reveal your role - you're not saved, you're dead that night.
Next up is the useless question of asking about a Cop. 2 things are what this looks like: 1) Bait for if there is a cop, 2) A way to fluff up any discussion. There wasn't anything going on, but there's nothing to discuss about a cop. It's not something we needed to discuss, and it doesn't provide any useful hints for town, only scum (if they suspected there was a cop).
On January 07 2013 05:24 OmniEulogy wrote:
We don't even know if there is a cop, and if everybody gives their speculation I highly doubt it helps scum very much, especially as multiple people would have the same opinions. This is more about the way people are thinking at the moment not You ARE the cop. Clearly being 2 townies down and having a 3rd on the way to being lynched isn't bothering you very much. Plus we're only looking for 2 scum. If we can (and we need to) lynch scum tonight we'll hopefully have a JK and possibly a cop (best case scenario) N2.
Why are you so against giving out your thoughts on the matter? You already have a vote on you, clear up some of the concerns voiced and give us your opinion.
It still helps them, and you're not saying anything about how it could possibly help town. Pretty much at this point I'm seeing this as a way to publicly work out if/who is the cop. Again, NOT helpful for town. We don't need to know about it until it's a critical moment where the game can be won, or if there's a chance they are dead.
On January 07 2013 16:36 OmniEulogy wrote:
Personally I think Jampi looks like the easiest target for the lynch.
Town don't look for easy lynches, scum do. Wake up. We search for scum.
On January 07 2013 17:03 OmniEulogy wrote:
##Vote: Jampidampi
I'll go over it more in a few hours but yeah. Also I never really noticed this but if you look at Jampi's filter the person he responded to the most and was pressured by the most was Cora. Cora gets killed before there is any real conclusion.
Anyway I'm off to bed cya.
Not a case, lol. Scum have all the information, and can abuse this pretty easily. If zare died last night, I'm scum because he pressured me early on in Day 1? No, unlikely as that's a move that is clear as day for anyone with half a brain. Of course though, they want everyone to see that and ignoring everything else, and essentially target the person that the person who got killed targetted. (Probably a less wordy way to say that).
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Basically, jampi still looks suspicious as hell, no real contribution, trying to fly under the radar in Day 2 - still giving no real clues to his being town (if he is at all), but the last few posts Omni have made while what seems to be half-asleep really makes me wonder if he just slipped up.
Lesson learned from NMM33: People make slips. If you ignore them, you could lose the game from it.
##Vote OmniEulogy
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##Unvote
##Vote OmniEulogy
Sorry, forgot to unvote.
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When I read 'close the game out for us' I just assumed that would mean town because in both scenarios where he is town and scum, it would mean town there :\
(Also, I thought close the game out meant losing, but it means winning? I don't even know)
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EBWOP: Never mind, googled it and it makes a lot more sense as meaning to win. Sorry for the quadruple post.
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The point about slips is that they don't realise it. Omni was in the perfect psychological state (half-awake) for him to be slipping. The defense will come though, and I'll see if it's better than I move onto jampi then.
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8.5 hours? I thought it was 7.5 hours
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On January 08 2013 01:31 OmniEulogy wrote:
You claim Jampi is ONLY the easiest lynch?
I didn't claim it, you did.
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Actually, I don't understand the ONLY in that sentence.
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Right, the wording of that statement just now was kinda weird to me, since I understood it completely differently to what you meant.
You could have used "most correct lynch", "most scummy player", "scummiest". Why did you use "easiest"? It's actually a horrible word to use when town when talking about lynches, and if you were saying he's easily the scummiest player, the sentence did not exactly convey that meaning.
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I had no intention of continuing, Mocsta.
Since the slip doesn't seem so much like a slip as opposed to horrible wording, I will be switching to jampi as stated in my previous posts.
##Unvote
##Vote jampidampi
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Holy crap what is going on I don't have internet so I'm using my mobile net to look at this, why is there as cop claim and why are there votes going to spag after his claim
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Actually I can see where the vote is coming from. If Spag is cop then that means either omni got role blocked and also jailkeepered, or temil got role blocked or jailkept .
Second scenario seems super unlikely as there is no reason anyone would waste their role on him, and the first one also seems unlikely unless jk followed spags advice and the roleblocker thought omni was blue.
I don't know what to do though, if we are wrong we could be killing any hope we have to win this game...
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If spay is cop then are checks out, if he is vt we know nothing and spay put us in bad situation
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I dunno, there are so many signs that show he was willing to vote zare
If he was cop, he did not give us any hints in regards to a zare check.
On January 08 2013 00:22 Spaghetticus wrote:
I would prefer any of the other three (including Jamp), but would not be entirely opposed to lynching Zare. I think there are better targets.
@Zare
Closing the game out for town. Closing town out of the game.
On January 08 2013 01:59 Spaghetticus wrote:
I am going to bed. My preferred candidates are Omni, Zare, and TeMiL, and I will settle for any of them. I'll try and get up in three hours so I can influence the lynch if it is not going the way I intend. I have certain changes to my plan if particular events happen.
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Zare preferred candidate, even though proven?
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EPT
