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@Omni
Don't talk about coaches. If we are not allowed to analyse coach claims, there is no point in using them to give emphasis. It's unverifiable and therefore meaningless. It is at best worthless fluff and at worst a deliberate appeal to authority to try and sway town towards your unsubstantiated opinions. A town would not want to do either (if your opinions are substantiated, you should be able to give reasons other than 'a coach agrees'.
@Corazon
No, your posts did little to influence me, though they did help me respect your position a little more. My response to your second post was an attempt to lead you into Mocsta's honey pot, so while an accurate perspective, it was not news to me. You took Mocsta's bait, but responded pretty will IMO. I think you ignored mine, which was also the right move.
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The Australians needed sleep, it was sort of unavoidable. As previously stated, I slept 6:00am until 9:30am in order to both give time for people, and be present to control lynch outcome. You can't expect everyone to do that, I don't have a job and Uni is out, so it's not such a big issue for me.
The lynch dance, while unsuccessful in landing a scumwhale, was very productive information wise, as has been mentioned by others. We now have a treasure trove of info on most players, so I expect an increase in aggression, as nobody has an excuse to not have reads now.
@Omni
I don't think the mods have a problem with claiming to have conversed with coaches, but as has already been established, they do have a problem with real analysis of the claim. I have a problem with you claiming to have spoken with coaches, for the reasons I have previously stated.
In regard to your 'soft buddy claim' on me, this is shocking. I honestly feel helpless in regard to this. It doesn't seem intentional, but I have the benefit of knowing we are not buddies. This in conjunction with my previous decidedly odd decision to not scumhunt you despite my suspicions of you, is basically aligning my fate with your flip.
I'm sorry to wash my hands of you in such a way, particularly since I believe your intention was to defend someone you read as town. I can't think of a scum motive for this action that doesn't come off a little far fetched though, which is good for me.
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On January 05 2013 11:23 Sylencia wrote:
If Temil is scum, there is another teammate to worry about. All that needs to happen is that Temil listens to them, and bandwagon to the appropriate vote. It is not 6/1 as you say it is, it would still be 6/2. You have to remember that while he has no influence in our discussions, he still holds a vote. If he is scum, that is a potentially powerful vote.
If Temil is town, no one is guiding him. He will not be voting in a very rational manner, he will not be reading our posts and cases, instead making his own (as you can see from his posts, he has made a few random accusations at you and Jampi) and voting off that. This is NOT the situation we want to be in, because if we reach a stalemate during the next vote, we would have to see how Temil votes.
Assuming we have 2 scum and a townie on one person, and townies voting on town, we would be leaving it up to a 50/50 chance he understands the situation, and votes the right one. Not the best odds.
Taking it further if he is town: He probably won't be killed because he is a liability to town. You're now in a 3-2 situation. Do you want to have Temil be the decider of the game?
This is sound analysis, you are really speaking my language with this post.
His vote is actually more powerful since he doesn't have to justify it in any way.
In regard to influence it is 6/1, but in terms of voting it is more like 6/2.5 (2.5 is mean to represent TemiL's more powerful vote, it's more powerful than a single vote but not as powerful as two).
TeMiL holding the balance of power as town does not worry me. Scum has exactly the same handicap in their voting, they have no clue where his vote will land. Approximately the same options for circumvention are available to both scum and town. Scum have more solid powers of premeditation, and can therefore invest more into outcome certainty, but this commitment to a lynch comes at a price of providing information. For town, I know I will be micromanaging the lynch to ensure one of my reads goes down, and I expect other town will want to do the same.
You are correct in assessing TeMiL as a detriment to town, the question now becomes whether this negative is outweighed by anyone else's play.
Oh crap. There are no vigilantes this game. A vigikill would be perfect for this occasion. I have actually been hoping that there was a vigilante present and listening, but I guess this goes to show I should pay more attention to the OP. There are also no medics... This makes Mocsta's fate almost certain...
How frustrating.
Regardless, your analysis is impressive Syl, this improves your standing substantially in my eyes. I am wary of you deliberately catering to the known disposition of one of your threats, but that is good play for both town and scum.
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On January 05 2013 11:11 OmniEulogy wrote:
I'm not ignoring the votes on Jampi. I'm ruling out Syl for the time being and I couldn't even begin to guess at TeMiL. Who else has votes on them other than those two? I know you'd like to believe Spag and myself are both scum but you are wrong. Cora is also a null read at the moment.
And I already said why I wouldn't vote for TeMiL. I made my case against StriX... do you really not care who a vote gets placed on that much? Nothing in what you have just said makes much sense. "I switched from TeMiL because I saw a chance to change to you, Why weren't YOU voting for TeMiL?" really? I've said multiple times a vote on TeMiL is wasted right now.
You are stating you have information on me that you would not have as a townie. This is a soft claim, though I really can't think of an intent for town or scum.
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@Mocsta
I actually did not promise to make a case against Omni, I distinctly stated that while I feel he is scummy, I do not want to be the one making the case, as I have massive bias. I have been directing attention to him as nobody seems to be picking up on his loose play. In the absence of a case, I will likely make one, but I am busy and have other people I would like to pursue. If Corazon feels up to the task, this would be optimal from my perspective.
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On January 05 2013 12:30 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2013 11:19 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Corazon
My response to your second post was an attempt to lead you into Mocsta's honey pot.
You took Mocsta's bait, but responded pretty will IMO. I think you ignored mine, which was also the right move. Show nested quote +On January 05 2013 11:19 Spaghetticus wrote:
You took Mocsta's bait, but responded pretty will IMO. I think you ignored mine, which was also the right move. Spaghetticus, you are constantly inserting my name and scum in the same sentences. I am not going to bother inserting the posts, because I would run out of page space...(read through the filter search Mocsta, and it is evident) If you have a problem with me, and the way I am operating.. Call me out directly, and make a case. Otherwise, you are trying to influence individuals in a deceptive manner. I think everyone can agree that is NOT town-like. (For the record, I don't even know what your "honey-pot" is referring to)
If I am doing this I am unaware. The post you quoted above, is actually me talking about your [b]TOWN[/b} behaviour. Let me explain:
The honeypot is a ploy where a town seduces a scum into revealing himself by making an obvious minor blunder. If someone tries to come in and inflate the minor mistake into a major one when this is outside your read on them, then you have likely found reason to suspect them. A mafia wants to put emphasis on irrelevant or clumsily executed arguments, rather than ones that actually contribute to catching them.
If this style sounds familiar, that is because I claimed this exact ploy earlier when explaining my 'slip'. My honeypot was more improvisation than anything, as I actually wanted to know about the mafia QT, but it was a honeypot none the less.
Note: honeypot is my word for it, I like to use flowery language. There is probably a canon phrase for this maneuver in the guides, but I do not know it.
I have noticed several times that you make seemingly deliberate mistakes using yourself as bait, for presumably this reason. I identified your crude 100% read to be exactly that: an invitation for deliberate misinterpretation. Seeing Corazon being reasonable about it, I decided to rebait the trap to see if I could get a read, but this also failed.
As you can now see, the post you used to represent your read of me being a peripheral pathway scum marketer is a misinterpretation. I have no intention of attacking you pre-day two as I know there is no point. I will admit that I want people to keep in mind that while you are a strong town read, you are NOT confirmed town. Your approach is so systematic that it is my opinion that, like myself, you decide on your playstyle before you receive your role. This makes a good town but also a resilient mafia. I am not implying I have a scum read on you, I am saying that your play would be very similar regardless of whether you were mafia or town, which means we should not be too hasty in giving you a positive town read despite your obvious contributions.
I just F5ed and realised you'd made a remark on Syl's analysis, claiming it is not OC. I will now go check this.
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@Mocsta and Syl
I was intending on doing a play by play, but I now think it unnecessary and largely irrelevant. Mocsta you are correct in that what Syl said had already been largely covered by you. He was able to take your broad strokes and turn them into a precise analysis that actually influenced my thought patters. This is the first time this game that I have had to really rethink my approach because I thought someone else had done a better job at thinking than me. Further still, despite the strength of his communication, he still managed to under appreciate his own arguments. A scum tries to emphasise his points beyond their relevance, Syl did not do this, preferring a quiet analysis. Mocsta your playstyle is overwhelmingly enthusiastic, but this means you tend to only communicate your reads on a comparatively shallow level (this is not a bad thing, you’re still extremely pro-town). Syl has managed to take your initial read, and developed it beyond what you communicated, which is pro-town. He also went into scenarios of where TeMiL was an effective scum, when before this scenario was presumed a non-issue.
While I was silly to attribute the entire post as OC, I stand by this post giving a pro-town vibe. I am sorry for not recognising your contribution, though quite frankly I think this is no longer in question.
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Okay so guys, we need analysis of the events leading up to the mislynch on Styx. This will require a lot of groundwork, but anyone that complies will be taking a very large step in confirming themselves as town.
I had a quick read backwards, and it looks like posts relevant to the lynch start on page 17 with Dandel Ion's vote count.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 04 2013 21:39 Dandel Ion wrote:
Votecount:
zarepath (2): OmniEulogy, Sylencia
TeMiL (1): StriX
StriX (1): jampidampi
Not voting (5): cDgCorazon, zarepath, Spaghetticus, TeMiL, Mocsta
Currently, zarepath is set to be lynched! 12 hours 20 minutes remaining in day 1.
Just as a reminder, day 1 deadline will be at 01:00 GMT (+00:00), because of the performed YOLO.
As you can see, only preliminary votes are present, and shortly afterwards shit gets real with three vote changes on the same page, including Mocsta's big post on TeMiL. The lynch on Stix is completed on page 23, so that's seven pages to analyse. The current most townie players have all done far more than this, it is not that big of an ask. I would ask that Corazon, Mocsta, and myself do not contribute our analysis until everyone has had a chance. We have already provided enough contribution to not be called scummy for holding back our reads, we need to give an opportunity for others to do the same. That means we want to see analysis from:-
- Jamp
- Syl
- Omni
- Zare
Day two cases will be based on this analysis, it is of utmost importance. On top of holding back your analysis, I want Corazon, mocsta, and myself to prepare wills before the upcoming NK. We have a 50% chance of there actually being a JK, then that JK has to correctly identify the scum that will carry out the NK without being roleblocked. One of us dies tonight. With the information available to me I expect it to be Mocsta, but scum have more information to work with and could find any number of reasons to NK Corazon or myself. These wills ARE a big ask, as they need to be submitted very close to the deadline so a s not to influence the NK, and need to provide info on why you think you got lynched, and any scum reads you have been keeping to yourself.
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Everything TeMiL has contributed has only served to clutter up the thread. I have not seen him post a single thing that I consider even vaguely relevant, and so expect his future posts to be the same.
I hold nothing against TeMiL, he is in over his head. Once he has a better mastery of the language I think Mafia would be a great game for him to play. Until that day, he will only confuse threads and weaken town. I am not interested in anything he has to say, as, unlike a more typical lurker, I believe he does not actually possess the capacity to meaningfully contribute, thus, I do not encourage him to contribute.
My God I am a jerk...
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That was poorly written but you get the point. If TeMiL is lynched it won't be as a result of a scumtell, it will pretty much be a policy lynch based on the balance of probabilities of a categorically useless player damaging town more than a more mundane scum read or lurker lynch.
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Okay, just caught up on sleep. Hopefully I can write things without sounding like a retard now.
Some quick notes:
- Someone said I made a lot of last minute FoS, which is scummy. This is true, sort of. I called out a lot of people that I thought were not contributing as much as they should, but these callouts were urging them to contribute for a strong day two (at least some of them). I was not posting suspicion so much as I was pressuring for activity.
- The Analysis by Syl was great. Jamp was broad strokes, and I would like to hear more specific reads, but this is a good start and I appreciate it. Omni your effort is appreciated, but I have at least one major criticism which I will get to soon, I have a lot of requests I must attend to.
- Am I right in thinking Zare is yet to post analysis?
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My justification for switching to StiX.
This seems really obvious to me, but that's the benefit of introspection I guess.
I switched to StriX as soon as Mocsta switched to Omni. StriX was a lurker that had not proving as analytic and direct as Jamp when there had been meta expectations of this type of performance. I had already ruled out voting for Jamp, and had already started making my concerns known about voting for TeMiL. While my vote had been on TeMiL previously, it was only put on him that early in order to pressure (I realise this was a mistake). If I had have held on to my vote until later, and then voted StriX, this would have been less townish as I would not be using my votethreat as a resource, but also would not have called any attention to me whatsoever.
When Mocsta switched, TeMiL was no longer on the chopping block at all, by keeping my vote on him I was basically giving a null read of my intentions: a no-lynch. There were three options:
- vote StriX
- vote Omni
- vote Jamp
As already mentioned I thought StriX a superior lynch to Jamp. Other than lurking, StriX was actually coming off as mild to moderate scum. At least Jamp is precise with his few words. This made my options either StriX or Omni. I have immense difficulty reading Omni's play as anything but scummy, but this is his meta and there is little I can do about it. He has also actually posted, and with my hard-line LAL adherence I both wanted and was forced to vote for StriX.
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If someone receives a jailed notification, can they differentiate that from a roleblock notification?
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EBWOP: If someone receives a jailed notification, can they differentiate that from a roleblock notification?
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@TeMiL
I know we have been sort of rude to you, and your fun factor is being compromised as a result. I don’t expect you to comply with this request, but I’m going to ask anyway on the off-chance you are profoundly reasonable.
Your vote, regardless of your alignment, is scaring the shit out of town, because it is unjustified and seems almost entirely random. If you do not vote, you will be mod-killed, but if you do vote, you could potentially screw town over. I implore you to vote for a no-lynch, allowing the rest of town to do their thing, and stopping you from being banned from this site.
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It wasn't a threat, I assumed that was what happened, but noted.
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Could we please get a countdown on the end of night one? A lot of stuff needs to happen and the board seems lethargic
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@Mocsta & Corazon
You will want to present your analysis before night actions are executed, along with your wills. This is the deadline for Zare to post his analysis as well, because we do not want him benefiting from the analysis of current town leadership.
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Cool, I just finished my analysis, and need to iron out the bumps in my will. I'm glad to see signs of human life.
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EPT
