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Germany2687 Posts
Okay. So I think there a few problems with the Orange/FC scum-team theory which I would like to solve before voting.
Overall the cases made against both (and espc. against Orange) are really good and make sense, but some plays I can't really make sense out of (if both are scum).
Assuming Orange/FC are scum:
Orange:
- Why does he vote for FC two times in this game? (The first vote didn't matter because the wagon would not be build anyway, but why the second time? After Orange's vote it was Kick 3:3 FC, very dangerous territory.)
- Why does he suggests Aqua should have been NK'd already and then NK him? (Isn't this basically saying "Aqua is right, I'm scum, lynch me?")
Considering the second point, could it be possible to that scum killed Aqua so we would miss-lynch Orange becaus of that?
FC:
- He gave the fourth vote to Kick, basically sealing the deal, he could not have know that there was a possibility that I get lynched.
- He was the last one who switched and it did not matter at all as it was a tie, which meant Kick would be lynched. So if he is scum, why switch when it's over for your buddy but you can at least gain town-cred
Could someone please try to debunk these arguments? Did I miss something
@cakepie:
I think I get what you were trying to do.
Also, when would you suggest role-claims?
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Germany2687 Posts
I was not blocked btw.
I still think the only RB I got was from Mocsta N1.
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Germany2687 Posts
I can't, it's 7:55am and I haven't slept yet. If I can't sleep, I'll be around.
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Germany2687 Posts
On December 29 2012 16:02 cDgCorazon wrote:
I think you have some valid points there Shz.
Lets just say you are right, and FC/Orange is 1 scum and 1 town. Who is the scum to you, and who is the town?
So from the points I did, I think that FC's actions were less detrimental to scum than Orange's. I find it quite difficult to believe that Orange would play this way if he was scum, but then again, does he play very much pro-town? Not really.
I would go for FC for now though.
##Vote: FatChunk
But I'm interested in what both have to say, and cakepie just pressured Chrom, so let us see what comes from that.
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Germany2687 Posts
Wait a minute.
I didn't look at Orange's play if he was scum and FC was town. Then the vote would make a lot of more sense. The Aqua thing is still strange, but if scum was really that afraid of Aqua, might be better to kill him off...
Dammit. This isn't as clear as it seems.
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Germany2687 Posts
@Corazon
I don't get why you are saying that I forgot to check the theory against Orange scum/FC town as scum tell. It was a honest mistake which I corrected decently fast.
It is very hard to proof 1-1 if we don't lynch both, what would mean that we are either wrong and killed 2 towns or 2 scum, or we are correct and kill 1 scum, 1 town. Which is still one town down. So the odds are against us. The best thing would be to kill oft one, and then figure out how to find the probably last mafia (if the lynch flips scum). If the lynch flips town, we can be pretty sure that the other is scum at least.
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Germany2687 Posts
So you are still in the play for being scum?
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Germany2687 Posts
Hm, what do you mean by a failsafe?
We can't proof 1-1 without lynching town.
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The question should be: If our lynch flips town, are we certain that the other is scum? If our lynch flips town are we certain that the other is town and we can ignore him?
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Germany2687 Posts
Argh...
Again:
The question should be: If our lynch flips town, are we certain that the other is scum? If our lynch flips scum, are we certain that the other is town and we can ignore him?
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On December 30 2012 13:32 Chromatically wrote:
I think that everyone agrees that the 1-1 thingy is possible or probable. I don't think that we should focus on it today, though. We can looks a associations and the like to find the second scum once we have a red flip, which we should focus on getting today. Let's try to lynch scum today rather than worry about lynching it tomorrow.
That being said, I'm not sure what else there is to say without FC responding to things. I'm pretty convinced on FC, much more so than Orange. Syl lynch is a bad idea for today, FC and Orange look worse.
Orange hasn't posted at all today. FC at least tried some.
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Germany2687 Posts
So you want to lynch FC. What if he flips town?
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Germany2687 Posts
@cakepie:
Okay. So if I understand your post correctly: You think FC and Orange are scum, but the 1-1 theory is there to provide for discussion before hopping on a wagon with 24h to go?
I guess it does not matter much if we believe in the 1-1, as we are, at the moment, going to lynch one of them anyway. After that we will have more information (and the NK will clear up more too). If the one lynched is town, we may have to re-evaluate, but for now we should find the safest lynch.
I'm leaning towards Orange atm, FC at least tried to do something. But we still have some time, so let's see what they contribute.
If you are town: Defend yourself, contribute, and at least write a testament with your thoughts before you die.
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Germany2687 Posts
I'm still uncertain who to lynch. Both make sense, but since Orange is on his way to a modkill, I will stay with FC.
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Germany2687 Posts
Why does everyone starts at five minutes before lynch. No time to digest.
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So then you both RB and we lynch you both. GG? As town that should not be a problem to either of you?
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GG. Wow. What a finish!
Do we get to see all the qts?
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EPT
