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Germany2687 Posts
I got roleblocked, but two people claimed it as well. But I guess it is possible with Town RB, Mafia RB, and Mocsta?
I'm really sorry for the extensive lurking / not participating. Today I was at HSC, I may be able to contribute more tomorrow and at least after Tuesday... I read everything though.
On December 23 2012 05:45 Chromatically wrote:
His first "contribution" is here. This looks like a good post at first: it's fairly long, it covers a lot of topics. However, all this is is a summary of what's happened so far. He doesn't take any stances on any of the issues of the time: look at the wishy-washiness on Corazon. He's afraid to take an actual stand, so he says things like "they seem a bit weak" instead of taking a position on it himself.
This is merely the first in a long line of posts of this type, taking no stances while writing long posts anyway:
Compiling information and summarizing is a good thing. It gives a good overview what happend and makes it easier to draw conclusions. But I could have done a better job with taking stances, true.
On December 23 2012 05:45 Chromatically wrote:
He votes Corazon shortly after this post, but with no other justification. He's blatantly lynching for information and is not even paying remote attention to whether Corazon is actually scummy or not. This is the first time he's actually mentioned Corazon since his first (non)read. This was also during the phase of the competing threesr/Corazon wagons, so this is obviously an extremely safe vote.
On December 23 2012 05:45 Chromatically wrote:
Apart from that, that's it. shz has:
- sheeped onto Cora and Spag with no reasoning when the wagons took off
- posted long posts that look good, but take no stances at all
- lynched solely for information
- done nothing else
Agreeing with comments and arguments is sheeping = scum.
Repeating others information and arguments = scum.
If that is your reasoning, you will find scum in everyone. You can't provide unlimited new information. Especially if you are busy (which is my own fault, it will get better once christmas is over... but still my fault). Why do you make cases (like this one)? You want people to jump on the wagon. But then saying it is bad to jump on a wagon is dumb. Also, if reasonable cases were made, what is there still left to add? This line of reasoning will leads to be able to make everyone look scummy.
I never said I wanted to lynch solely for information, I said that it is a factor in considering who to lynch. If there are two or more suspects, I would lynch the one who would provide the most information on either flip.
I'll post more in a bit.
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Germany2687 Posts
threesr:
While I think that most of us agree that he behaves just totally strange, aggressive, lazy, sarcastic, and whatever he is still not under pressure for most of the last (RL-) days. I don't quite get why. He hasn't posted in the last ~48h.
So: @threesr: What are your current thoughts? We all know that you don't care about our opinion or are a person of man words, but who do you think we should lynch today?
There is much reason to lynch him for his lack of cooperation, but my problem would be, that we would not gain any information from this. If he isn't scum, the lynch did absolutley nothing. And that worries me.
@all: What to do with threesr? Do you still want to let him contribute nothing while lynching others (me/omni)?
Chromatically / Omni:
Mocstas case on the Chroma / Omni relationship does not stick. One or two pages before his case, Chroma did make a pretty big case on Omni. So that does not seem very likely. Chroma calls himself a vet, but I'm not sure if this would warrant a suspicion that this is some high-level mafia play.
My conclusion from this is, if Mocsta was on to something here, only one of them is actually scum. If we consider that OmniEulogy has a "strong town read" on Chroma, I would go with Chroma as being the scum out of these two. Again, if Mocsta was on to something. Though Omni gave up his town read on Chroma and FoS'd him, his reasons for that were very defensive. Also the thing to note is, that Omni changed his vote to Spaghetti when Corazon was on the way to the noose. If he was scum, why should he switch wagons from Corazon (safe kill at that moment) to the much lesser safe lynch Spaghetti? In the end, Spaghetti did get killed, but he helped a great deal with his early switch and helping to get the wagon rolling.
What does that mean? If Chrome is scum, I don't think Omni is. If Chrome is town, Omni should be too.
So what clue do we have to suggest that Chrome is indeed scum?
If we ignore all clues that comes out of the connection Mocsta saw, we don't have any. He only focused on Omni, which is fine, but not helping if we want to find out if Chroma is town or not.
I think there is a possibility, but I'm not at all confident that Chroma is scum. On thing that strikes me is, that he overall voted for 5 players and made several cases. Which could be the strategy to put everyone out there and hope that one of them gets lynched.
@Chromatically: Why do you think he would not chose me to lynch? Are you suggesting something? And why do you back off from him, vote me (before you made a case), if you think there is a connection?
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Germany2687 Posts
On December 23 2012 13:16 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2012 12:55 shz wrote:
...
What does that mean? If Chrome is scum, I don't think Omni is. If Chrome is town, Omni should be too.
So you're saying that you think Omni is town regardless of Chromatic's alignment. Could you justify this some more?
If Omni is scum, the only explanation for his Spaghetti vote would be that Corazon is scum too. Why would he not jump on the Corazon wagon otherwise? Scum wants to kill anyone besides scum, so why start confusion when you just can take the safe bet without getting noticed.
M conclusion is: If Omni is scum, Corazon has to be too. But then I don't get why he should still make a case against Cora, even if he backpaddled later? Why draw attenion to your buddy at all?
On December 23 2012 13:32 Sylencia wrote:
shz: what of the flipside, would that reveal anything about Chrome depending on what Omni is? Considering that Omni was the one that was under fire, I was trying to work it out myself
If Omni flips scum, I'd be more inclined to believe Chrom is likely town
If Omni flips town, I am not sure it really gives much info about Chrom.
Do you have a different perspective on that?
If Omni is town, Chroma could still be both.
If Omni is scum, Chrome is town.
But Mocstas case is still debunked, as sad as it is (considering the work he put in).
On December 23 2012 13:27 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2012 12:55 shz wrote:
@Chromatically: Why do you think he would not chose me to lynch? Are you suggesting something? And why do you back off from him, vote me (before you made a case), if you think there is a connection? I feel like his earlier votes, along with his vote for you, are pressure votes to get you to contribute and defend yourself, things which you haven't done until now. In the case of Threesr, I was in the same thought pattern as you, except I feel like Threesr is coming back with a bad town/bad mafia reading. Both do not really affect us. I feel like we should leave Threesr alone for now because we have bigger fish to fry, and we can tell is someone in the future is mafia if they are under fire and respond by going after Threesr.
Could be, I would like to hear it from him though.
That makes sense. Threesr is of course always a good scapegood for everything. I'm still kind of afraid of him, but as long he doesn't contribute he can't do much damage, regardless of alignment.
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Germany2687 Posts
On December 23 2012 14:07 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2012 13:55 shz wrote:
If Omni is scum, the only explanation for his Spaghetti vote would be that Corazon is scum too. Why would he not jump on the Corazon wagon otherwise? Scum wants to kill anyone besides scum, so why start confusion when you just can take the safe bet without getting noticed.
M conclusion is: If Omni is scum, Corazon has to be too. But then I don't get why he should still make a case against Cora, even if he backpaddled later? Why draw attenion to your buddy at all?
That sir, is where you are sadly misinformed. If you've read the thread, you would see that Spag defended me, not attacked me. If Omni and I are scum, Omni would not have thrown me under the bus Day 1. That is a strategy scum would do if they wanted to lose. He would also not go on the offensive against someone who defended his scum mate, the logical thing to do would keep his vote on me and ride out Spag's lynch on Day 1. You don't understand why he would make a case against me and call me "100%" scum if we were both scum as well. I think you are taking the "Newbie" title in this thread just a bit too seriously. If the scum were to do things that you are suggesting the scum are doing, then this game would be over in 3 days. If you are going to accuse me of being scum buddies with Omni, you need to look at my filter. I have not made any huge argument for or against Omni in the entire game. To me, this just seems like you reaching for connections that just don't exist, and reads that you are hoping we are stupid enough to believe. ##unvote
##Vote:Shz
You, sir did not understand my post at all. Maybe it was strangely worded so Ill try again:
If Omni were scum, he could have just voted for you instead of going for Spaghetti, because at that time you were bout to get lynched. Except if you were scum too, than he had to rescue you from your demise. But if you were scum, and he were scum, we would not made his case againt you in the first place.
This is why I don't think there is a reasom to believe Omni is scum.
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Germany2687 Posts
*he would not made his his case against you.
But, since you are getting all defensive. This line of arguing is not excludig you from being scum, just him and you. So you might stay defensive.
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Germany2687 Posts
I hope the confusion is cleared out then.
What is your current thought of chroma?
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Germany2687 Posts
I did, what I think is a good approach and sumarzied every (living) player. I think there is a lot to learn from this, now bundled, information. I commented sometime, but mostly it is just the information. I will draw my own conlusions from that after this post. I may have overlooked something, so you can of course correct me.
+ Show Spoiler [OmniEulogy] +OmniEulogy:
Cases:
No real one.
Suspicions:
Corazon
FatChunk (FoS)
Mocsta (SK, not really though)
shz (SK, not really though)
Orangeremi (FoS)
Sylencia (Heavy suspicion)
Kickstart (later)
Votes:
Corazon
Spaghetti
Town Reads:
Chroma
Threesr
Mocsta
Later: Corazon
Aquanim
Chunk (maybe, after a couple of days)
shz (maybe, after a couple of days)
cakepie (null, then town)
Mentioned: (12/12)
Corazon
FatChunk
Mocsta
Orangeremi
Sylencia
Theesr (Devils Advocating for him)
Kickstart (Agreement, later null-read)
Corazon
shz (Agreemen, later null-read)
Cakepie
Aqua (Mentioning)
Chromatically
Notes:
Claimed VT
+ Show Spoiler [cakepie] +Cakepie:
Votes:
Orangeremi
Spaghetticus
Kickstart
Cases:
Half cases on shz, Orange, Kickstart
Suspicions:
Corazon (FoS)
threesr (FoS)
Mocsta (because of the over-eagerness. Not a strong suspiciuon)
shz
Aqua
Chrom
FatChunk
Omni
Town Reads:
Sylencia
Mentioned: (12/12)
Aquanim (commending him, no real read)
Corazon (FoS, pressure)
Chromatically (Light commendment, looking forward for more)
FatChunk (null-read, should stept it up, later commend for threesr-case)
Kickstart (Not active enough, pressuring threesr, after its safe anyway)
Mocsta (over-eager, null-read, less policy, more cases)
OmniEulogy (Waiting for more contrb)
OrangeRemi (Vote)
shz (agreement, not really any read though)
Spaghetticus (Solid)
Sylencia (AFK)
threesr (FoS)
Notes:
Clamined RB
Lurkish: 2 pages of content
+ Show Spoiler [Kickstart] +Kickstart:
Votes:
Spaghetti
shz
Cases:
shz
Suspicions:
FatChunk (no fan of the posting)
shz (wishy-washy, no commitment)
cakepie
threesr (defending lurking)
Town Reads:
None
Mentioned: (5/12)
FatChunk (explain theesr-vote)
shz
cakepie
Orangeremi (pretty much null-read)
threesr
Notes:
Lurker: 1 page of content
+ Show Spoiler [cDgCorazon] +cDgCorazon:
Votes:
Aquanim
threesr
Orangeremi
shz (took it back right after)
No-Lynch (at two occasions)
Cases:
Orangeremi
OmniEulogy (somewhat)
Suspicions:
shz
Omni
Chromatically
Aquanim (town-read before)
Kickstart (lurking mafia)
Town Reads:
cakepie
Mocsta
Spaghetti (maybe good mafia)
FatChunk
Mentioned: (12/12)
FatChunk
threesr (No matter what, anti-town)
Sylencia (null-read
Aquanim
threesr
Orangeremi
shz
OmniEulogy
Chromatically
Mocsta
Spaghetti
Kickstart
+ Show Spoiler [Orangremie] +Orangremie:
Votes:
No-Lynch
FatChunk
OmniEulogy
Cases:
None
Suspicions:
FatChunk
Threesr
Corazon
Kickstart
Spag
Sylencia (more in the beginning, less now)
Omni ("in no way he's town")
Town Reads:
Aquanim
Mentioned: (11/12)
Fat Chunk
OmniEulogy
Threesr
Corazon
Kickstart
Spaghetti
cakepie (Not really though)
Chromatically (not really, a bit on the positive side)
Sylencia
Hasn't mentioned me once.
+ Show Spoiler [FatChunk] +FatChunk:
Votes:
threesr
OmniEulogy
Cases:
None
Suspicions:
threesr
Chroma
Aquanim
shz
Sylencia
Town Reads:
Mocsta
Spaghetti
Mentioned: (12/12)
shz
OmniEulogy
cakepie
Chroma
Mocsta
Corazon
Orangeremi
Spaghetti
threesr
Aquanim
Sylencia
Kickstart (only once, agreeing with him)
Notes:
Lurkish: 2 pages of content
+ Show Spoiler [threesr] +threesr:
Votes:
Mocsta
FatChunk
Corazon
Cases:
Suspicions:
Orangeremi
cakepie
Town Reads:
Mentioned: (8/12)
Omni
cakepie
Chroma
Mocsta
Corazon
Orange
FatChunk
Aqua
Not: shz, kickstart, Sylencia, Spaghetti
+ Show Spoiler [Aquanim] +Aquanim:
Votes:
Spaghetticus
FatChunk
Corazon
OrangeRemi
Cases:
Spaghetticus
Suspicions:
shz (I think?)
Omni (somewhat)
cakepie
Town Reads:
Mentioned: (12/12)
Spaghetticus
FatChunk
Corazoin
OrangeRemi
Spaghetticus
shz
OmniEulogy
cakepie
Kickstart
Chroma
threesr
Sylencia
Notes:
Lot of policy talk.
Very hard to read.
+ Show Spoiler [Sylencia] +Sylencia:
Votes:
Corazone
Omni
Cases:
None
Suspicions:
threesr
shz ("Littly shady")
Chroma ("Still keeping my eye out, but isn't so bad.")
Town Reads:
Corazon
Mentioned: (12/12)
Corazone
Omni
threesr
shz
Chromatically
Kickstart
Mocsta
FatChunk
Aquanim
cakepie
Not really mentioned:
shz
OrangeRemi
Notes:
No idea what to think. He said himself, that he is like a ghost here. And that worries me. I don't get clear reads on anything from him. Just his two votes on the current flavors of the day.
Notes:
Lurkish: 2 pages of content
+ Show Spoiler [Chromatically] +Chromatically:Votes:Corazon FatChunk Omni Cases:Corazon FatChunk OmniEulogy shz Suspicions:Cases or nothing. Town Reads:Mocsta Mentioned: (12/12) Mocsta Sylencia shz threesr Omni Kickstart Orangeremi theesr Corazon FatChunk Spaghetti Aquanim (rarely) Sylencia cakepie Notes:He did say, while playing mafia in another game, he did try not to mention his scumbuddies. When we analyze his post with that in mind some things stick out. He only mentions Sylencia twice: Asks why Mocsta thinks syl would be suspicious and never mentions it again. On December 19 2012 11:18 Chromatically wrote:
Is there a particular reason you find Syl more suspicious than others who have
only posted once?
And asks Syl (and others) to contribute more, while defending Kickstart and Syl instantly. On December 21 2012 10:08 Chromatically wrote:
Theses are the people that need to post more:
-Kickstart
-Orangeremi
-Sylencia
-threesr (during the second half of d1)
-
It's nearly impossible to get a read on you if you're all lurking. One day is
excuseable, more than that is not. There were many chances to comment on things
during the day that you didn't. I think it's very likely that at least one scum
is hardcore lurking and it's working because multiple town are also lurking.
Kickstart and Syl have said that they have time problems, I assume that you'll be
able to post more going in to d2. Orangeremi I see as particularly suspicious out
of this group for being lurky all day for no particular reason.
tl,dr; don't lurk so that we can find the scum. cakepie, he only mentions once in all of his posts: On December 22 2012 08:30 Chromatically wrote:
So who do you actually think is scum, cakepie? He said himself, that he avoided mentioning his scumbuddies in his last game. And here he avoids mentioning, let alone pressuring these two.
I am conviced we will find connections and answers in here.
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Germany2687 Posts
On December 24 2012 05:02 Kickstart wrote:
Why the list post ;/. And why do that and say you are convinced we will find connections when you could look for them yourself and then post those? I was waiting for you to do something to convince me that you might be town but that post wasn't it.
Because lists are less emotional and I rather look for patterns than typos and wording errors (which seems to make cases).
I will look for connections etc., but why not show the information I will base it upon? This is a group effort, so this is one more tool to use to expose scum.
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Germany2687 Posts
On December 24 2012 05:29 Chromatically wrote:
Omni, if you vote shz, he might get enough votes to be lynched over you.
So he should vote me to survive, just so you can then make case out of his bandwaggoning even though he wasn't conviced?
I am not conviced that Omni is scum, and you mostly ignore my ignored my arguments why.
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Germany2687 Posts
Some words in my defence:
If I was scum, why should I not go the safe road and wait until a wagon established? If I just want to lynch anyone, I could have waited until later and then cast my deciding vote.
Most of the arguments here are no real arguments (not just against me, most of the cases).
If someone does A, you will accuse him of being scum, and asking why they did not do B. But if they do B you will accuse him of being scum, and asking why they did not do B. You make cases against players and then against the people who agreed your arguments and voted for that person. But if they don't follow it, you will question that too. See what my problem is? The actions don't matter in your type of arguments. It's your gut-feeling looking for confirmation and finding it everywhere. We had hours of discussion because someone had a typo and "said" he was scum. What. The. Fuck?
Please be less emotional and look for patterns instead of weird wording or typos. If anything, over-emotional-posts help scum. Rationality can help us.
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Germany2687 Posts
On December 24 2012 05:52 Chromatically wrote:
Of course he should vote you to survive. There's no way that you don't understand that.
shz and OmniEulogy scumteam 100%
The point is not surviving, but winning. If you lynch me and town still wins, great. I don't care for survival, but I care to win. And if you will end up lynching me, town is one town more down.
I can't say for sure that Omni will not flip scum, but I don't think so. And you are getting pretty bold with your "100%" read (the same thing Omni want people lynched for).
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Germany2687 Posts
On December 24 2012 06:10 Chromatically wrote:
Omni and shz
Omni knows for certain that shz is town. Obviously, he would rather get shz mislynched than have himself lynched.
Omni would vote for shz..
But he didn't. Why would he not vote for me?
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Germany2687 Posts
On December 24 2012 06:23 Chromatically wrote:
Because you're scum, silly!
Seriously, the only other reason that he might not vote for you in that circumstance is because he's WIFOM bombing us hardcore. That's a terrible move strategically though, and it's unlikely in the face of the other associations.
Looks like shz's not getting lynched today, might as well consolidate to prevent any shenanigainry:
##Unvote
##Vote: OmniEulogy
This is about to backfire so hard. Good luck.
If you are scum, well played, you got me all riled up for the first time. If you are town, I'm seriously pissed about that. We'll see after the game.
What scum-reads are left if Omni should flip town.
What when I flip town.
What if we both flip town.
What would be your next move?
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Germany2687 Posts
I would still like to heart it from him though.
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Germany2687 Posts
@Kickstart:
You did not mention most of the players in your posts. Care to share your opinion on Chroma, Omni, Orange, Syl, cake, and Aqua?
Do you have a reason for the lack of contributions so far? Especially since you claimed "lurking is bad". Do you think it would be okay to lynch you for that? 2 Days and and Night passed, while you are still on your first page of contributions.
Who is your top 3 scum, who your top 3 town?
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Germany2687 Posts
@Aqua: Why does a list rubs you the wrong way?
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Germany2687 Posts
On December 24 2012 07:08 Aquanim wrote:
It looks constructive at first glance, but doesn't tell us anything in particular. Also, by limiting yourself to talking only about established facts rather than your own opinions, it doesn't commit you to any inconvenient beliefs you'll have to square your later play with.
What would you like to know?
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Germany2687 Posts
I would like to make a case against Kickstart, but it does just not work, as he has one (1!) page of contributions after 2 days and 1 night.
v
On December 19 2012 17:05 Kickstart wrote:
DON'T LURK, LURKING BAD.
I am not sure at all at the moment. I can give you my thoughts why I don't have a strong read at the moment:
We have too many lurkers.
Syl (2 pages)
Kickstart (1 page)
Threesr (3 pages, but you know... threesr)
FatChunk (2 pages)
This is so hard to accumulate any information if 5 lurk out of a game of 13 while two townies are already dead, the third one (probably) to come in a few minutes and we might lose another one to NK.
So half of this game is now lurking.
As for the rest I do have gut-feelings, but I'm not sure what they contribute, but if you want me to make bold stances:
Chromatically could be very good mafia. He has a good stance inside the active contributors, he can dictate opinions. It could be a very good strategy to have one scum who is offensive and active while the other two are lurking and blending in.
Today we made it really clear that we don't touch lurkers, so they are pretty safe for now. If Omni flips town in a few minutes, we are fucked. 3 town down, 1 more tonight (if NK goes through). We have to get a scum-lynch next day, or we basically lost already.
My vote does not matter anyway, but I'm gonna go with my gut for now and really hope we either start giving lurker shit or they come out and contribute more so we can actually get something done.
##Vote: Chromatically
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Germany2687 Posts
On December 24 2012 08:58 OmniEulogy wrote:
hahahahahahaha
Now I'm scared.
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Germany2687 Posts
Great. 3 townies down.
What does that mean excactly? Threesr's role will be played by someone else?
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EPT
