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Germany2687 Posts
On December 19 2012 20:01 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 18:48 Spaghetticus wrote:On December 19 2012 18:33 shz wrote:
So if we need another wagon to jump, or not, to jump on:
##Vote: Mocsta
Why?
He/She did start a discussion, but I don't think that was all that useful, other than proving him being active and establish an alibi. Questions like the seafood one waste time and distract from substantial discussion. Also he/she is quite fast on "reading" someone as Town. Additionally he/she asked repeatedly about Mafia strategies.
This is no way a waterproof case, but I think its a start and something we could work with.
I'm not sure they meant to actually throw in your vote, these things normally start with a niggle of suspicion. Thanks for the support! Always appreciated. I wasn't concerned about the vote. At some stage everyone will have a vote cast against them. Its the nature of the game. Ultimately, all the items he raised (I should say re-quoted...), I had already refuted in previous posts.My concern was over shz sheeping others comments. Not sure if bad/lazy townie play, or mafia motives. [i.e. Need to read filters] For all of the lurker discussions going to and fro. I think its disconcerting to throw accusations without either evidence, or bringing any new thought process to the table.Either way, as Cakepie referenced before in his awesome (and ?sole?) post. Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 11:52 cakepie wrote:
Town must never clam up for fear of making mistakes -- 1. it is through discussion that we may hope to correct errors in reasoning; and 2. more importantly, in the event of a mislynch, it would leave trail for others to follow. Hence, a silent townie is a far more useless than a bad townie. I agree with this sentiment, and do not want to discourage people from making comments. We need a town environment where people are willing to speak up (CONSTRUCTIVELY!)
What is sheeping?
It is nothing more than a suspicion at the moment, but I do get a scummy vibe from you because of your over-townie-acting. Just like a person who is overly-nice. I don't buy it.
Also, accusing bad town play is not a good way of convincing anyone. Its just a distraction.
Don't just refer to your posts, quote them if you think you refuted everything already.
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As I did not get any sleep tonight, I caught some of it up until now. This is getting somewhere. So I'll start with answering my questions and then stating my thoughts.
On December 19 2012 23:21 cakepie wrote:
shz: Tried to provide a case on mocsta as an alternative to cDgCorazon. However, the fast town read was first pointed out by spaghetticus, and OmniEulogy was the one who first pointed to the questions about scum startegy. Not sure the case is viable at this point, but I agree that Mocsta seems a bit too eager.
Q: Evaluate my play. Does it look town, or does it look scum? Why?
Your analysis is quite thought out and you point out three POIs and try to get something out of it by pressuring them. This is good. At the same time you still trying to get reads on most of the others by asking questions. I don't think these three are your only suspects. All in all I tend towards town as I don't see much evidence which would support you scumminess.
I don't agree with your vote for Orangeremi at the moment though. Yes, he did not contribute until now, but I would give him some more hours before lynching him for that.
@Mocsta
So I'm scum because I said that my case against you wasn't waterproof? What would have happened if I acted so sure about you, as you act about everyone who attacks you? You getting quite defensive and jumping to, rather fast, conclusions about who is mafia and who is not.
You changed your vote from me to threesr immediatly to countervote him and then spam a couple of posts saying "how easy it was", "he slipped", in big red bold latter. This is way over dramatized. To top that of you trying to martyr your way into town. I don't like that at all. I'm still not 100% conviced, but this is not helping you. For now my vote stands.
And I think threesr, however fishy and rare his posts are at the moment, has a point. You seem quite conviced and at the same you are saying you are not.
I don't have an opinion on FatChunk yet, as he did not contribute enough. If we don't find a conses by the lynch-deadline, we should lynch one of the lesser active players, for sure.
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@threesr
Could you elaborate on your scumread for Chunk?
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On December 20 2012 03:09 threesr wrote:Show nested quote +On December 20 2012 03:03 shz wrote:
@threesr
Could you elaborate on your scumread for Chunk? No I dont like writing a lot.
Good thing that you are playing forum-mafia. Even if you are not mafia, this does not help town at all.
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On December 20 2012 04:36 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 20 2012 02:57 shz wrote:
I don't have an opinion on FatChunk yet, as he did not contribute enough. If we don't find a conses by the lynch-deadline, we should lynch one of the lesser active players, for sure. Really? As opposed to Mocsta, who you have your vote on? If you had to lynch for inactivity and/or lack of serious contribution, how would you order the 3-4 candidates?
Mocsta did contribute more than FatChunk before I voted him.
It seems some of the players have awaken and contributed to the discussion, but some are lurking too much.
1. I'm really getting tired of threesr. Even if he/she isn't mafia he/she is creating so much chaos, only commentates snarky and very brief. He/She is dangerous whethere scum or not.
2. Kickstarter stated that he/she thinks lurking is bad, but lurks him/herself.
3. Orangerem is lurking too much.
4. Sylencia too, but that was announced, so we have to see how the next couple of play-days go.
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On December 20 2012 08:46 threesr wrote:
Have you even read all the posts previous to this one? No one has even bothered to respond to cakepie's questions, and all of you supposedly think he is the best contributor to the town. Seems like you are so obsessed with pushing a lynch on me that you have neglected to read all of the previous posts.
At the moment, I don't have many reasons to suspect scum in cake. But you are distracting a lot of the discussion with your comments. Whether you do this intentionally or not, you are creating chaos with your (like I said before) snarky and sarcastic one-liners and chaotic voting. This does not help town, so why should we not pushing for this?
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If you are not mafia shouldn't be the point of this to help us to hang the scum? Going crazy with votes on D1, not contributing in a helpful way, and focusing all the attention towards you isn't helping to accomplish our goal.
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What is your plan then for the next 24h?
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Could the mods please use the [ local] tag for deadlines?
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The question is, what information do we get if we lynch one of the current suspects.
Corazon
If Mafia:
- threesr most likely not scum.
- FatChunk unknown, but showing scummy tendencies as he/she did kinda defend Corazon and plans on voting to lynch threesr.
If Town:
- threesr not off the hook, but still not confirmed either.
- FatChunk unknown, but leaning towards town, for the same reason as stated before.
FatChunk
If Mafia:
- Corazone possible mafia, but not confirmed.
- threesr most likely not scum.
If Town:
- Corazone still possible mafia.
- threesr still possbile mafia.
threesr
If Mafia:
- Likely town: Mocsta, Corazon (Very likely town), and FatChunk
If Town:
- Corazone still possible mafia.
- FatChunk still possible mafia.
I'm starting to think that Corazon is indeed the best vote at the moment.
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Unknown. I think 3 are the most likely.
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On December 20 2012 11:50 Chromatically wrote:
@shz
We should be lynching the player who is most likely to flip scum, not based on any information we might gain. We can look at association stuff after the flip, but we want to focus on lynching scum before. Based solely on who will flip scum, who do you want to lynch and can you move your vote there?
On December 20 2012 12:48 Chromatically wrote:
@Spag
Our objective as town is to lynch mafia. What we should not be doing is lynching for information instead of lynching mafia. The information gained from a flip is not great enough that we should lynch a townier player. If you look at what shz's post actually says, there's very little actual conclusions that could be drawn. Most of it is just "x is possible scum". All of it is just worrying about the d2 lynch, which we should do on d2 instead of now.
I dislike your post saying that we should "expect a town lynch". Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty.
We we will never be able to be sure, so we have to single some guys out, discuss, search for tells, and lynch one. And I think it is to our benifit to also include possible information we can get from it in our decisions. We will most certainly lynch town too, so better make it worthwhile in terms of information. This is not me saying we should lynch town for information, it is saying we should always keep in mind that our lynch can flip as town, so better take the safe bet and at least get some information out of, if the worst case will happen. I think all three are good (for the amount of information we have) picks.
On December 20 2012 11:56 OmniEulogy wrote:
That is true but I think he's saying all three of them are the top scum picks and then based on information we gain from each of them the one we benefit the greatest from is Corazon from his list.
Excactly.
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On December 20 2012 12:59 Chromatically wrote:
I'm just saying that we shouldn't lynch based on the amount of 'information' we get. Yes, of course it's always possible for the lynch to flip town. And yes, there is information to be gained from associations. But association cases should wait until d2 when we actually know a players' alignment.
Basically, we lynch the most scummy player and then look at association d2. There's no benefit to looking at it now if we are trying to lynch mafia.
But you do come to the same conclusion that we should (at least at the moment) lynch Corazon?
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I would have done it tomorrow but I can do it now I guess.
##Unvote
##Vote cDgCorazon
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Before I'm on the road for most of the day before the lynch:
1. We should not assume someone is playing bad or good because of information from sources outside this game. I don't think this is very worthy of discussion. For all we know everybody could be a smurf, played with a smurf before, or just played somewhere else. Don't assume anything, look at their actions in this game.
2. It is too early to discuss possible SK. We don't know if this role is even in this game. We should stick to looking for scum for now.
3. New development!
- So, Carazon is on the verge of getting lynched today and Spaghetticus comes out of nowhere to help. What does that mean?
Either Carazon is Scum, Spaghetti is not, both are or neither is. If Spaghetti is scum, Carazon is too. Otherwise it does not make sense to help him/her out. But this does not help us very much. So the question is if we should change from Carazon to someone else?
What are the argument for not voting Corazon Spaghetti provided:
- Statistics: This does not matter at all. If there is a 75% propability for the wrong lynch in day it stays the same whether we Lynch Cora or anyonw else.
- Votes arent locked, wie can always change Thema before the deadline.
- There is still discussion going on. Cora defended, people analyized. We are not just stopping to post just because Cora is the target at the moment.
I'm not convinced by Spaghettis arguments. Art the Moment I can see him as scum too. I'm not ruling out voting him out.
- Aquanim changes his vote from Corazon to make a case against Spaghetti.
While I agree that Spaghetti is possible scum, the argument that rational posts = scum is dumb.
If anything overly emotional argumemts are Moore scum.
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Why should I defend Spag? I'm considering to lynch him. He should do it for hinself.
Sorry for the strange typos/grammar. Fucking autocorret.
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It seems like we have the strongest case against Spag at the moment. I will still keepmy eye on Cora, but for now:
##unvote
##Vote Spaghetticus
@Aqua:
If you did not argue that, then its all good. Of course rational not equals town, but its not equal mafia either. Its neutral.
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On December 21 2012 07:25 Spaghetticus wrote:
Morning guys. Just had a brief read through, looks like I'm screwed -_-
How much time left until the lynch? Should I bother defending myself or should I make a final statement?
1,5h and I will be there, so of course you should defend yourself.
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On December 22 2012 00:04 Kickstart wrote:
@SHZ
Why did you jump on every bandwagon without giving any reasons at all for why you think those players are scummy? Do you have any current scum reads that you would be willing to push instead of sheeping?
"Whatever bandwagon is popular right now" is not true. My mocsta vote was to push for an discussion and I did explain my Corazone vote before. If you want to quote, don quote out of context.
+ Show Spoiler [Corazone reasons] +On December 20 2012 11:19 shz wrote:
The question is, what information do we get if we lynch one of the current suspects.
Corazon
If Mafia:
- threesr most likely not scum.
- FatChunk unknown, but showing scummy tendencies as he/she did kinda defend Corazon and plans on voting to lynch threesr.
If Town:
- threesr not off the hook, but still not confirmed either.
- FatChunk unknown, but leaning towards town, for the same reason as stated before.
FatChunk
If Mafia:
- Corazone possible mafia, but not confirmed.
- threesr most likely not scum.
If Town:
- Corazone still possible mafia.
- threesr still possbile mafia.
threesr
If Mafia:
- Likely town: Mocsta, Corazon (Very likely town), and FatChunk
If Town:
- Corazone still possible mafia.
- FatChunk still possible mafia.
I'm starting to think that Corazon is indeed the best vote at the moment. On December 20 2012 12:53 shz wrote:Show nested quote +On December 20 2012 11:50 Chromatically wrote:
@shz
We should be lynching the player who is most likely to flip scum, not based on any information we might gain. We can look at association stuff after the flip, but we want to focus on lynching scum before. Based solely on who will flip scum, who do you want to lynch and can you move your vote there? Show nested quote +On December 20 2012 12:48 Chromatically wrote:
@Spag
Our objective as town is to lynch mafia. What we should not be doing is lynching for information instead of lynching mafia. The information gained from a flip is not great enough that we should lynch a townier player. If you look at what shz's post actually says, there's very little actual conclusions that could be drawn. Most of it is just "x is possible scum". All of it is just worrying about the d2 lynch, which we should do on d2 instead of now.
I dislike your post saying that we should "expect a town lynch". Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty. We we will never be able to be sure, so we have to single some guys out, discuss, search for tells, and lynch one. And I think it is to our benifit to also include possible information we can get from it in our decisions. We will most certainly lynch town too, so better make it worthwhile in terms of information. This is not me saying we should lynch town for information, it is saying we should always keep in mind that our lynch can flip as town, so better take the safe bet and at least get some information out of, if the worst case will happen. I think all three are good (for the amount of information we have) picks. Show nested quote +On December 20 2012 11:56 OmniEulogy wrote:
That is true but I think he's saying all three of them are the top scum picks and then based on information we gain from each of them the one we benefit the greatest from is Corazon from his list. Excactly.
But after I read the reasons to vote for Spaghetti, it made sense. Of course it didn't matter anyway because he was dead at that point, but whatever.
At the moment I'm leaning forwards FatChunk. But not sure at all at the moment, and I'm busy as fuck so I don't think I can contribute more tonight, I am working on a post with my thoughs on anyone but I have to go now~~. Sorry for the lack of contributions. I will look into FatChunk and see if my suspicion holds true. And I still have the feeling that out of the big mass contributors, there is a scum somewhere.Chroma, Mocsta, etc.
Do whatever you think of it.
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