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On December 18 2012 07:37 MrZentor wrote:Show nested quote +On December 18 2012 07:32 DoYouHas wrote:On December 18 2012 07:26 MrZentor wrote:
DYH, your case is bad.
Scum would have tried to shoot Hapa before DP.
And your whole case is based on that not being true.
Wrong, your case is based on that assumption being true, mine is not. My case is based on you pushing a strategy that would reveal whether hapa is blue or not when he is still potentially in danger of being silver shot. My case is based on acknowledging that you don't know exactly how scum are operating, which you clearly don't, because you want to lynch hapa. If Hapa was town, then Mafia wouldn't have any silver bullets left. It's pretty simple, and the reasoning behind it is solid. If he were truly a blue, then he would have nothing to fear from the witch hunter.Anyways, originally, my plan was going to reveal if Hapa were scum or not; I had a null read on him. And then Hapa started acting really scummy. Like REALLY scummy. So no, my read on Hapa isn't all based on that assumption being true. In fact, it isn't based on that assumption at all, as my plan didn't succeed, and we didn't gain any information from it.
What? Again, the only way your plan works is if your assumptions hold true, yes, they aren't bad assumptions, I never said they weren't but they aren't the ONLY valid assumptions. What you just said boils down to, hapa was either vanilla or elected scum, I was trying to figure out which. This is exactly my point. What you did leaves no room for your assumption being wrong.
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Ok, I'm here and I've caught up. Working on a more extensive case against MrZ atm, but here is your chance to pick my brain before I go to bed.
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On December 18 2012 13:55 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On December 18 2012 13:48 DoYouHas wrote:
Ok, I'm here and I've caught up. Working on a more extensive case against MrZ atm, but here is your chance to pick my brain before I go to bed. You were convinced that Eywa was scum. What do you make of the last few pages?
It is definitely a pretty drastic change from earlier. I don't really trust it until I see more. His most reasonable posts have been lists, while when he is actually pushing someone he seems entirely unreasonable. Not to mention he went from you being obvious scum, to you being likely scum, to you being probable scum, to taking cues from you on lynch targets in a very short space of time. That is a little fast.
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MrZ, I'm a bit confused on Eywa right now tbh.
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It isn't going to be out tonight. I'll put it up tomorrow, I also need to get to bed.
I'll address my inactivity before I get off though. Right from the beginning I wasn't going to have as much time as I would like for this game. You may recall I /out for just this reason. As things are I have been making time to keep current on the thread and compose my thoughts. I'm playing this game in chunks. It is not ideal, but I have been able to make cases and sometimes interact. Maybe I should have insisted that BH replace me immediately when I saw the rolepm, but I figured I could make it work and save the replacements for people who had serious reasons they couldn't play anymore.
Gnight.
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MrZentor
I had a null to town read on MrZ at the end of day1. Despite his claim that no scum would play like he was playing, or that only a truly amazing scum could pull off his day1 play as scum, + Show Spoiler +On December 17 2012 03:12 MrZentor wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2012 02:18 kushm4sta wrote:On December 17 2012 02:09 Morbidius wrote:
You are seriously going places with your lurker hunt, can you tell me why you think random lynching would be a better option over voting on JX or MrZ? because they are active so if they are scum we can catch them later. (whereas people are understandably reluctant to lynch lurkers after d1) loud noobs are terrible lynches d1. It's town to put yourself out there like that. Also shit they do may look scummy, "IM OBV TOWN GUYS THAT IS PROVEN BEYOND DOUBT NOW - MZ" but that could also easily be explained by noobness. I think only a noob would think saying something like "IM OBV TOWN GUYS THAT IS PROVEN BEYOND DOUBT NOW" is scummy. Remember, scum want to fit into the crowd; they want to imitate a regular townie's behavior, because in doing that, they are safest from getting killed. Doing things like saying "IM OBV TOWN" doesn't fit into this agenda. + Show Spoiler +And before anybody says that that's wifom, because scum could easily purposely act strange and then use this argument to try to prove that their town, and that therefore it's meaningless, let me explain something to you.
Yes, in theory, mafia could easily also could use this argument to try to prove that their town, but, in practice, mafia are too afraid of risks to try to use this argument to prove that they are town. Only an exceptionally daring or experienced scum player (like Ace) would be both capable and have the courage to do it. And, because I am neither, I am town.
Also, I don't want to kill a lurker anymore. On December 15 2012 07:08 MrZentor wrote:
##Vote MrZentor
Because I can.
I can't really go after him for how he pushed mord. I agreed with his read on JX and his points on Mord were convincing. It is worth noting that he only stopped 1 lynch in order to push a different mislynch. A good way to gain cred as scum and something I think fits with how MrZ plays, but not really alignment indicative.
What really tips the scales for me, and I'm amazed doesn't do the same for the rest of you is his n1 call to reveal voting on hapa. Maybe you all didn't think through the iterations of how that could play out like I did and see that that play was extremely scummy. Let me remind you of the only explanation MrZ provides when I pressured him on this earlier, + Show Spoiler +On December 18 2012 07:41 MrZentor wrote:Show nested quote +On December 18 2012 07:39 DoYouHas wrote:
If MrZ was town he would have to at least acknowledge that his assumptions might be wrong. And if that possibility exists, then his actions only have a scum mindset. Any town making his assumptions could just as easily test them when hapa was out of danger. They would be no less convincing, even if we will be missing 2 more votes now.
MrZ was rolefishing, plain and simple. The probability of scum having a bullet and Hapa being blue was minuscule. And I'm impatient.
1. MrZ is right and scum HAD to have shot hapa before DP - Scum hapa is caught, but would have been caught just as surely N2.
2. MrZ is wrong and scum may not have had to shoot hapa before DP:
a. hapa is elected town - revealing votes also reveals this, which opens hapa up to getting shot by the witch hunter, and, in all probability, MrZ doesn't get lynched for it.
b. hapa is vanilla town - revealing votes lets scum know that in all likelihood hapa is not going to be protected and is the clear choice for the regular scum hit.
It is the timing of this that makes it so scummy. If MrZ was town he would have waited until N2 to bring this out. The only purpose bringing it out before N1 has even ended, and then pressuring the rest of the town to reveal their votes quickly, is to cover the bases on #2 above. If MrZ had gotten his way, hapa's death would have been practically ensured. Instead, not enough people went along with MrZ's plan, and we got a thrawn death.
Enter hapa's comments + Show Spoiler +1. On December 18 2012 10:43 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On December 18 2012 07:39 DoYouHas wrote:
If MrZ was town he would have to at least acknowledge that his assumptions might be wrong. And if that possibility exists, then his actions only have a scum mindset. Any town making his assumptions could just as easily test them when hapa was out of danger. They would be no less convincing, even if we will be missing 2 more votes now.
MrZ was rolefishing, plain and simple. Like this for example. I've played a bunch of games, coached a bunch of newbie games, and I have yet to see a mafia player "rolefishing." This is something that mafia are largely scared of doing as it draws attention to themselves. I can't see MrZ rolefishing this blatantly. 2. On December 18 2012 12:12 Hapahauli wrote:
And even if he is "rolefishing," DYH's case against MrZentor doesn't adequately address why MrZ's idea scummy rather than stupid.
1. The hallmark of MrZ's play so far has been drawing attention to himself and then using it as a "I can't be mafia because" statement.
2. What about MrZ's play so far strikes you as stupid? He clearly had his defense of his early play lined up before even his first post, his case on mord was convincing and gained him town cred. MrZ is thinking things through.
Next up is this response, which doesn't fit with his earlier logic OR his actions:
On December 18 2012 07:37 MrZentor wrote:Show nested quote +On December 18 2012 07:32 DoYouHas wrote:On December 18 2012 07:26 MrZentor wrote:
DYH, your case is bad.
Scum would have tried to shoot Hapa before DP.
And your whole case is based on that not being true.
Wrong, your case is based on that assumption being true, mine is not. My case is based on you pushing a strategy that would reveal whether hapa is blue or not when he is still potentially in danger of being silver shot. My case is based on acknowledging that you don't know exactly how scum are operating, which you clearly don't, because you want to lynch hapa. If Hapa was town, then Mafia wouldn't have any silver bullets left. It's pretty simple, and the reasoning behind it is solid. 1. If he were truly a blue, then he would have nothing to fear from the witch hunter.
2. Anyways, originally, my plan was going to reveal if Hapa were scum or not; I had a null read on him.And then Hapa started acting really scummy. Like REALLY scummy. So no, my read on Hapa isn't all based on that assumption being true. In fact, it isn't based on that assumption at all, as my plan didn't succeed, and we didn't gain any information from it.
1. Why would he have nothing to fear from the witch hunter if he was a blue? By MrZ's own reasoning a blue Hapa would have to already be dead in order for the witch hunter to no longer be a threat.
2. This statement completely contradicts with his actions. If this was truly his intention and he truly had a null read, he would have waited until N2, period. It isn't like the safe time for claims hasn't been discussed already.
What happened here is when I put pressure on MrZ, forcing him to admit that he could be wrong and that his actions only helps scum. He starts tripping up trying to back himself off of hard pushing hapa. Speaking of which...
On December 18 2012 09:41 MrZentor wrote:
The main part of my speculation was that if Hapa is town, mafia has used both of their bullets.
And I am beginning to suspect that Hapa isn't scum, but only because of his recent rage.
I'm still wondering why you contradict yourself so much.
This is the only post where he mentions any reasoning for his sudden turn around from 'hapa has to be scum, and I can prove it!', to hapa is obv town and I'm going to work with him on lynching DYH. In MrZ's words, the chances that his assumption is wrong is miniscule, and it isn't like his original plan's viability has disappeared, we could reveal our day1 votes at the start of N2 and it would prove his point almost as well as N1.
MrZ is scum
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I had been trying to keep MrZ's voting of me largely out of my case to try and make it more objective. But what you are saying makes sense.
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On December 19 2012 06:31 Eywa- wrote:Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 06:29 DoYouHas wrote:
I had been trying to keep MrZ's voting of me largely out of my case to try and make it more objective. But what you are saying makes sense. I'm just going to go ahead and say this, assume that all you said is true and that MrZ were trying to expose hapa, after he failed to expose him, the witchdoctor would have taken the shot anyway... Which means Hapa either didn't get blued or is also scum.
I don't agree with you, I think DP's policy had more influence than you seem to think. I know it did for me. If you are right and the witch hunter would have shot hapa anyways after MrZ's plan failed, they probably would have layered the regular scum hit on top of that just to cover their bases. hapa isn't dead, so I don't think this is possible.
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I'm now positive that MrZ is scum. First, let me address this defense that hapa apparently agrees with so wholeheartedly.
On December 19 2012 08:27 MrZentor wrote:His whole case is That he agrees with me on a bunch of stuff Show nested quote +I can't really go after him for how he pushed mord. I agreed with his read on JX and his points on Mord were convincing. It is worth noting that he only stopped 1 lynch in order to push a different mislynch. A good way to gain cred as scum and something I think fits with how MrZ plays, but not really alignment indicative. But because I wanted to know if Hap was scum or not from witchcraft votes Show nested quote +What really tips the scales for me, and I'm amazed doesn't do the same for the rest of you is his n1 call to reveal voting on hapa And because I didn't want to wait more than 48 hours to get the results Show nested quote +It is the timing of this that makes it so scummy. If MrZ was town he would have waited until N2 to bring this out. I am scum. One thing DYH doesn't realize, which is extremely important, is that my plan wouldn't work if I waited for N2, because there would be at least 2 more dead people, and I would have no way to know those people's witchcraft votes. He says I am scum because I didn't wait for N2 to ask for everybody's votes, but he doesn't understand that my plan wouldn't work if I waited for N2.
MrZ has now given 2 bad responses to my point about the timing of his action. The first was him being impatient. Now this.
The fact of the matter is, his plan WOULD work N2 compared to when he actually proposed it. He would have had 10 votes to work with before thrawn died. I did not vote for hapa. Now, even if I die, MrZ has 9/10 of the original votes he was so sure would confirm hapa as scum or trap the scum team. He honestly wants you to believe that his plan CANNOT work with 90% of the information he would have gained anyways. I call bs.
Here is where things should get convincing for those of you who still won't listen to me on the previous point.
On December 19 2012 05:58 MrZentor wrote:
I had just ignored him most of the time, because in the last game I played with him, we mislynched him and he was some important role. I was afraid of misreading him again, but after he was brought up yesterday, I looked into him and he looked really scummy.
On December 20 2012 02:44 MrZentor wrote:
As scum the easiest thing to do is to pick a target (me) and push that target the whole game, ignoring everything else.
And DYH isn't strong or confident. He's just mindlessly pushing for my lynch. It's an extremely easy to execute and effective scum strategy.
Also, I am SUCH an easy target.
On December 20 2012 02:50 MrZentor wrote:Show nested quote +On December 20 2012 02:47 JieXian wrote:On December 20 2012 02:44 MrZentor wrote:
As scum the easiest thing to do is to pick a target (me) and push that target the whole game, ignoring everything else.
And DYH isn't strong or confident. He's just mindlessly pushing for my lynch. It's an extremely easy to execute and effective scum strategy.
Also, I am SUCH an easy target. I was an easy target D1 was everyone who were pushing for me scum? The reason DYH is scum isn't that he is pushing an easy target. You're missing the point. He's tunneling me, all game, ignoring everything else. That's scum play. Who else has done that?
First, MrZ states that he pushed a mislynch on me in paranoia mafia and he is afraid of misreading me. Now, when he is trying to strongarm eywa into voting me his true colors come out. Pushing a target I'm confident in to the exlusion of other discussions is EXACTLY what almost got me mislynched in paranoia.
Other people have pointed out how I haven't been tunneling MrZ 'all game'. However, JX, your wrong about my Eywa read, I think he is town. What was confusing me was I thought he connected with MrZ, but as I've delved into MrZ I've found that isn't true.
MrZ's approach towards me doesn't hold up. Hapa was one of the first to show this, but now with these more recent posts, it should be clear to everyone.
However, all this being said, we still need to consolidate on either myself or MrCc. Eywa is town and isn't going to move his vote. I still think hapa is town, and he isn't going to move his vote. That means for an all town majority all the townies have to pile on either me or MrCc. We can't risk an no-lynch, that would likely put us in mylo or lylo depending on the nightkill and the silver bullet situation.
I can't honestly say I have looked into MrCc that much recently. What I know is that he has a better chance of flipping scum than me, and given the current situation, that makes my choice clear.
##Unvote
##Vote Mr. CheeseCake
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EBWOP: ninjaed by Eywa's vote switch. I guess that frees me up to vote MrZ again.
##Unvote
##Vote MrZentor
Time to start posting all my reads I guess...
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Eywa - town - Once he stopped his over the top crusade on hapa and started talking reasonably his townie-ness came through.
Hapa - town - With his contributions day one and his willingness to go after anyone and back off just as quickly, hapa's play has just been too confident and productive to be scum.
JX - townish - His willingness to go after the most influential townie and back up Eywa, even when Eywa was flinging crap does not strike me as the play of a noob scum, which JX would definitely be. His day1 play also fits his 1 game town meta better than his 1 game scum meta.
kush - townishnull - kush certainly hasn't been helpful much this game, what struck me as town from him is when he asked if anyone had claimed witchcrafty yet. What scum would say that? (Aside from MrZ).
MrZ - scum -
Djo - scumish - Djo has been playing the reasonable middleground in this game far too much. This has been a game of extremes and votes jumping around. Djo always seems to be looking to come out on top regardless of which way things play out.
MrCc - scumishnull - I didn't like the way MrCc buddied hapa during the Eywa push, and the points about his Thrawn case are decent. But I haven't looked into him thoroughly.
Draz - null - I have paid almost no attention to draz this game.
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EBWOP: Apparently Kush plays scum with a 'too scummy to be scum' mindset, so he could totally say that as scum. Moving him to scumishnull.
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I have to go to a blood donation appointment, so I'm going to miss the deadline. I hope I'm still alive when I get back, adios.
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GG hapa. I think what really did me in this game was when you did your unexpected 180 on Eywa. I had been positioning for an Eywa flip and was ready to focus on MrZ through the early part of day2, only to have you convince me over to an Eywa train (of course, I would be pushing that train as well). When Eywa was suddenly off the table, my focus on MrZ was exposed for what it was, and I was screwed.
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I really don't have much to say about this game any more. I got most of them out in the QTs. Interesting game.
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Agreed MrCc. With the exceptions of Hapa, DP, Thrawn, and maybe MrZ, this game should be looked back on as a cautionary tale. Trying to justify bad play after the fact isn't helping anyone to learn from their mistakes.
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Mainly JX, trying to justify his vote decision and his absurd suspicion of Hapa.
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I think you should take out or alter the mason option. I can't see how you can balance it.
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The problem I have with the mason ability is that it is really underpowered in the setup as is. No town would pick it with the other powerful roles in the pool. And no scum would pick it because it potentially works against you. But here is the trick, if you remove scum's ability to mason people, the role becomes absurdly powerful. Just masoning the most townie person in the game confirms you as town to them.
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EPT
