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On December 03 2012 22:24 sandroba wrote:
Well the thing is that VE didn't know he was gonna die. Do you think he would agree preemptively to lynch zealos in that case? I think our best bet is to ignore those 2 for now at least.
I actually generally have the complete opposite opinion about that. Scum on day 1 like to throw suspicion against each other if there's no pressure that they are going to get lynched.
At least that's what I did in my only scum game.
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On December 04 2012 01:37 Keirathi wrote:
I want someone to answer this for me:
Do townies tunnel? When they're confident they found a scum?
I said I would reevaluate BH if someone could honestly tell me that they thought that one of marv/DYH's night actions would get through, because my assumption was that one would be killed and one would be RB'd.
I'm assuming your question is rhetorical and you're trying to say that your tunnelling makes you townie. It doesn't make you either alignment, you just tunneled someone.
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On December 04 2012 01:42 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 01:37 Keirathi wrote:
I want someone to answer this for me:
Do townies tunnel? When they're confident they found a scum?
I said I would reevaluate BH if someone could honestly tell me that they thought that one of marv/DYH's night actions would get through, because my assumption was that one would be killed and one would be RB'd. I'm assuming your question is rhetorical and you're trying to say that your tunnelling makes you townie. It doesn't make you either alignment, you just tunneled someone.
Right, I'm not saying tunneling makes me townie, but it doesn't make me scum either.
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On December 04 2012 01:40 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 22:24 sandroba wrote:
Well the thing is that VE didn't know he was gonna die. Do you think he would agree preemptively to lynch zealos in that case? I think our best bet is to ignore those 2 for now at least. I actually generally have the complete opposite opinion about that. Scum on day 1 like to throw suspicion against each other if there's no pressure that they are going to get lynched. At least that's what I did in my only scum game.
maybe bad scum do, cause that's fucking stupid.
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Sandroba,
As someone else pointed out, this was a very helpful post:
On December 03 2012 07:40 sandroba wrote:
I have to go out quickly so I'ma post my thoughts early:
Sandroba's Town List for dummies (TM):
WBG - marvelosity = both too emo ragers for it to be fake. I can't see the genuine asshole behavior being faked here and there is no scum motivation for it. I would seriously like to lynch marv for being an assface jerk, but unfortunately I can't convince myself he is scum.
Xatalos - LOL this guy is so townie I don't understand how you baddies manage to bandwagon him day 1. 'Nuff said.
DYH - I really thought this guy was scum for his retard case on xatalos before I read the last 30 pages. However that last minute claim looks really good so I'm putting him as town. Hopefully he can get confirmed by shooting into scummers tonight. Assuming scum have 1 rb (can't really imagine them having 2) either him or marv should get their actions through.
Scummers :
Zealos, BlazingHand are scum. I don't think I need to explain why for BH. Read Zealos oportunistic jump on xata wagon. That post has scum written all over it.
People that I'm unsure but leaning scum:
VE - who you might ask? Yes this dude is playing in this game. I bet you didn't know either. Kei/Ace - Meh ace is a hard one for me to figure out. I thought he was scum when I was obsing because of his "Oh this is interesting" comment, but I'm liking kei a bit more. This BH case seems very convinient though.
But I'd like to hear more. Dandel Ion was missing for a lot of D1, and I want to try and firm up a read on you to make sure I can trust your analysis.
(1) Why was Xatalos "so townie"?
(2) What is your current stance on Zealos?
During the night, you had posts like:On December 03 2012 07:21 sandroba wrote:
@DYH If you are vigi, which I believe you are, I would just flip a coin and shoot BH/Zealos, they are both scum. and the one above, where your top two reads are BH and Zealos.
Today, I scan see reasons for coming down off BH, but Zealos is another story. During the night, Zealos was scum because of his oportunistic jump on xata wagon. That post has scum written all over it.
but now you've tossed Zealos aside and are on ShiaoPi. I'm fine with the ShiaoPi read, but you seem to have dropped one of your main suspects, who you thought was scum because of a specific post, because ... VE mentioned him?
On December 03 2012 21:38 sandroba wrote:
Hmm Bugs does have a point. Also if we assume BH is town ShiaoPi does fit the same theme as VE yesterday. A totally unimpactful player that just stood by the sidelines, because their team was never in danger. I'm willing to roll with that because I'm getting cold feet about BH flipping scum (VE mentioning he is okay with lynching him/zealos should at least make us consider looking in another direction) and Shiao isn't doing shit so it's less risk involved.
##Vote: ShiaoPi On December 03 2012 22:24 sandroba wrote:
Well the thing is that VE didn't know he was gonna die. Do you think he would agree preemptively to lynch zealos in that case? I think our best bet is to ignore those 2 for now at least.
If Zealos was so scummy because of a specific post, why should we put him aside today because VE mentioned him?
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On December 04 2012 01:44 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 01:42 austinmcc wrote:On December 04 2012 01:37 Keirathi wrote:
I want someone to answer this for me:
Do townies tunnel? When they're confident they found a scum?
I said I would reevaluate BH if someone could honestly tell me that they thought that one of marv/DYH's night actions would get through, because my assumption was that one would be killed and one would be RB'd. I'm assuming your question is rhetorical and you're trying to say that your tunnelling makes you townie. It doesn't make you either alignment, you just tunneled someone. Right, I'm not saying tunneling makes me townie, but it doesn't make me scum either.
Exactly. So that leaves us judging you based on aces actions, which were scummy. The fact that youve only provided analysis on bh is troubling
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On December 04 2012 01:49 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 01:40 Keirathi wrote:On December 03 2012 22:24 sandroba wrote:
Well the thing is that VE didn't know he was gonna die. Do you think he would agree preemptively to lynch zealos in that case? I think our best bet is to ignore those 2 for now at least. I actually generally have the complete opposite opinion about that. Scum on day 1 like to throw suspicion against each other if there's no pressure that they are going to get lynched. At least that's what I did in my only scum game. maybe bad scum do, cause that's fucking stupid.
So what do good scum do? Ignore their partners? Give them town reads? Neither of those are very optimal either and can just as easily be picked up on.
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On December 04 2012 02:02 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 01:49 wherebugsgo wrote:On December 04 2012 01:40 Keirathi wrote:On December 03 2012 22:24 sandroba wrote:
Well the thing is that VE didn't know he was gonna die. Do you think he would agree preemptively to lynch zealos in that case? I think our best bet is to ignore those 2 for now at least. I actually generally have the complete opposite opinion about that. Scum on day 1 like to throw suspicion against each other if there's no pressure that they are going to get lynched. At least that's what I did in my only scum game. maybe bad scum do, cause that's fucking stupid. So what do good scum do? Ignore their partners? Give them town reads? Neither of those are very optimal either and can just as easily be picked up on.
?? We're talking about d1, when a confirmed scum was under no pressure at all. People don't bus just for the hell of it. When they do, they get caught later because they sacrificed too much of their team to live.
Think about it, if someone gets enough cred for bussing early, people will question why they're alive later. It's just not worth it for scum to bus so early.
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@austin I changed my mind on zealos due to VE's flip and the fact that I remembered his bureaucracy game. I simply think that given the evidence of VE's interactions ShiaoPi has a much higher chance of flipping scum than Zealos. As for Xatalos I don't feel like explaining why I think he is town unless people start voting for him again. It just fits way better if shiaopi is scum here instead of zealos/bh.
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@kei Let's assume lynching BH is out of the question today. Who would you want to lynch instead?
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On December 04 2012 02:37 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 02:02 Keirathi wrote:On December 04 2012 01:49 wherebugsgo wrote:On December 04 2012 01:40 Keirathi wrote:On December 03 2012 22:24 sandroba wrote:
Well the thing is that VE didn't know he was gonna die. Do you think he would agree preemptively to lynch zealos in that case? I think our best bet is to ignore those 2 for now at least. I actually generally have the complete opposite opinion about that. Scum on day 1 like to throw suspicion against each other if there's no pressure that they are going to get lynched. At least that's what I did in my only scum game. maybe bad scum do, cause that's fucking stupid. So what do good scum do? Ignore their partners? Give them town reads? Neither of those are very optimal either and can just as easily be picked up on. ?? We're talking about d1, when a confirmed scum was under no pressure at all. People don't bus just for the hell of it. When they do, they get caught later because they sacrificed too much of their team to live. Think about it, if someone gets enough cred for bussing early, people will question why they're alive later. It's just not worth it for scum to bus so early.
But I don't think he was TRYING to get Zealos lynched. I mean, he made the one case, left his vote for an hour and a half without mentioning him again, then hopped off onto the DP wagon.
If he had put more effort into it, maybe I could buy that argument.
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On December 04 2012 02:47 sandroba wrote:
@kei Let's assume lynching BH is out of the question today. Who would you want to lynch instead?
Give me a few minutes to see how bugs responds to my latest post.
Or you could respond to it, since you seem to share his opinion that scum never throw suspicion on their teammates day 1.
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It is indeed possible that VE threw zealos name out there and said he would agree to bus him next day out of the blue. It's just not likely.
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On December 04 2012 02:52 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 02:37 wherebugsgo wrote:On December 04 2012 02:02 Keirathi wrote:On December 04 2012 01:49 wherebugsgo wrote:On December 04 2012 01:40 Keirathi wrote:On December 03 2012 22:24 sandroba wrote:
Well the thing is that VE didn't know he was gonna die. Do you think he would agree preemptively to lynch zealos in that case? I think our best bet is to ignore those 2 for now at least. I actually generally have the complete opposite opinion about that. Scum on day 1 like to throw suspicion against each other if there's no pressure that they are going to get lynched. At least that's what I did in my only scum game. maybe bad scum do, cause that's fucking stupid. So what do good scum do? Ignore their partners? Give them town reads? Neither of those are very optimal either and can just as easily be picked up on. ?? We're talking about d1, when a confirmed scum was under no pressure at all. People don't bus just for the hell of it. When they do, they get caught later because they sacrificed too much of their team to live. Think about it, if someone gets enough cred for bussing early, people will question why they're alive later. It's just not worth it for scum to bus so early. But I don't think he was TRYING to get Zealos lynched. I mean, he made the one case, left his vote for an hour and a half without mentioning him again, then hopped off onto the DP wagon. If he had put more effort into it, maybe I could buy that argument.
I have to say I agree with this point. I mentioned it earlier: I just can't see where VE was "bussing" Zealos. There's a big difference between bussing and distancing. When you bus, you actually try to get your scumbuddy lynched. When you distance, you just throw a vote at him and maybe provide some reason for that. What VE did fits with the latter, not the former.
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@Xata - I have moved you back to null. I don't think the points I have brought against you (excluding the vote responses, I'm moving away from those for now) were bad ones. You seem to be letting other people's opinions influence you more than you should. That keeps me from fully trusting you. However, you are coming across as a reasonable voice that is willing to talk most the things in the thread. You are being active and fairly constructive. It is no longer my top priority to push you.
@Keirathi - You keep bringing up that BH seemed to know that there was no roleblock by slipping that either marv or my action would go through. I completely agree that if they had a RB they would have used it to deal with both of us. (The only exception in my mind is if they really thought I was going to kill another townie for them.) Because of the unlikelihood that mafia have a RB and just chose not to use it, it makes even less sense that BH would have done his last second voteswitch to save me if he was scum. If they had no clear way of stopping both my action and marv's, scum stepping in to help save a vig when literally 30 seconds of "I didn't refresh the page" would have killed me is beyond dumb for scum to do. If one of the main reasons you are suspicious of BH is true, then you are only making it LESS likely that he would have voteswitched.
P.S. Sandroba made the same slip here.
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On December 04 2012 03:13 DoYouHas wrote:@Xata - I have moved you back to null. I don't think the points I have brought against you (excluding the vote responses, I'm moving away from those for now) were bad ones. You seem to be letting other people's opinions influence you more than you should. That keeps me from fully trusting you. However, you are coming across as a reasonable voice that is willing to talk most the things in the thread. You are being active and fairly constructive. It is no longer my top priority to push you. @Keirathi - You keep bringing up that BH seemed to know that there was no roleblock by slipping that either marv or my action would go through. I completely agree that if they had a RB they would have used it to deal with both of us. (The only exception in my mind is if they really thought I was going to kill another townie for them.) Because of the unlikelihood that mafia have a RB and just chose not to use it, it makes even less sense that BH would have done his last second voteswitch to save me if he was scum. If they had no clear way of stopping both my action and marv's, scum stepping in to help save a vig when literally 30 seconds of "I didn't refresh the page" would have killed me is beyond dumb for scum to do. If one of the main reasons you are suspicious of BH is true, then you are only making it LESS likely that he would have voteswitched. P.S. Sandroba made the same slip here.
That's fair about BH. Maybe you're right and I have my confirmation bias goggles on because I already had him as a day 1 scum read before I ever joined the game.
And I read that post from sandro but that part didn't stick out to me. Why the hell wouldn't scum have shot+RB'd both of the blue claims day 1 if they had the ability to :o
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@austinmcc:
On December 01 2012 11:38 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2012 11:07 VisceraEyes wrote:
Yeah Mad Men I think. Maybe it was someone else....with a chart and everything. Not me. I have a super secret method of reading you.
So what was your super secret method, and why did you never mention VE at all in regards to a read of him?
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On December 04 2012 03:20 Keirathi wrote:@austinmcc: Show nested quote +On December 01 2012 11:38 austinmcc wrote:On December 01 2012 11:07 VisceraEyes wrote:
Yeah Mad Men I think. Maybe it was someone else....with a chart and everything. Not me. I have a super secret method of reading you. So what was your super secret method, and why did you never mention VE at all in regards to a read of him? Fine fine. I don't want to have to reveal this, but I will. My super secret method of reading VE is:- Have him be the lynch target of the day
- Vote for him
- Realize about 5-10 minutes before lynch that I get the feeling he's actually town
- Don't say anything and let townVE get lynched anyway
- Regret that, and then watch as he flips town
See: LV and PTP3, and thoughts inside my head during each of those games. Ta da, that's my super secret method.
Didn't mention him because he wasn't doing tons, and wasn't a lynch option at any point really. Was focused elsewhere.
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On December 04 2012 03:30 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 03:20 Keirathi wrote:@austinmcc: On December 01 2012 11:38 austinmcc wrote:On December 01 2012 11:07 VisceraEyes wrote:
Yeah Mad Men I think. Maybe it was someone else....with a chart and everything. Not me. I have a super secret method of reading you. So what was your super secret method, and why did you never mention VE at all in regards to a read of him? Fine fine. I don't want to have to reveal this, but I will. My super secret method of reading VE is: - Have him be the lynch target of the day
- Vote for him
- Realize about 5-10 minutes before lynch that I get the feeling he's actually town
- Don't say anything and let townVE get lynched anyway
- Regret that, and then watch as he flips town
See: LV and PTP3, and thoughts inside my head during each of those games. Ta da, that's my super secret method. Didn't mention him because he wasn't doing tons, and wasn't a lynch option at any point really. Was focused elsewhere.
LOL. Your method for reading VE is to flip him? That's brilliant!
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The only reason scum wouldn't have an RB is if there are 4 of them.
That's not that out of the question considering that this game is 15 players.
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EPT
