##Vote: ShiaoPi
Paranoia Mafia - Page 59
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
##Vote: ShiaoPi | ||
sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
On December 03 2012 21:38 sandroba wrote: Hmm Bugs does have a point. Also if we assume BH is town ShiaoPi does fit the same theme as VE yesterday. A totally unimpactful player that just stood by the sidelines, because their team was never in danger. I'm willing to roll with that because I'm getting cold feet about BH flipping scum (VE mentioning he is okay with lynching him/zealos should at least make us consider looking in another direction) and Shiao isn't doing shit so it's less risk involved. ##Vote: ShiaoPi Hmm. Alright, I can agree with lynching ShiaoPi today. It also helps that I have a town read on both you and WBG. And ShiaoPi hasn't been lurking quite as heavily as Zealos, but he hasn't done anything either. ##Unvote ##Vote ShiaoPi Although I'm wondering where Zealos has disappeared. And Lazermonkey. What we need now is more posts by several players who haven't done anything for a while (or even all game). | ||
sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
Any of VE's pushes that "seemed" genuine were probably on townies. | ||
Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
On December 03 2012 23:18 wherebugsgo wrote: ye sandro has it correct. A scum who is not going to die or is not under in any pressure to bus is almost certainly not going to bus. Any of VE's pushes that "seemed" genuine were probably on townies. I guess that's a fair assumption, but not foolproof. For example, I bussed my scumbuddy hard in a previous game although I wasn't in any immediate danger - just to gain towncred and win the game with that. And VE didn't even BUS Zealos, he just throwed a vote at him and easily changed it away from him. I think that's very possibly just some distancing, not necessarily bussing or genuine lynch effort. Even so, I agree that VE's comment on ShiaoPi was much more suspicious than his vote for Zealos. VE seemed pretty reluctant to even talk about ShiaoPi, and he was especially uncomfortable with the thought of lynching ShiaoPi. The obvious explanation is that ShiaoPi is Mafia, although it's only a piece of circumstantial evidence. Still, combined with ShiaoPi's clear background role and lack of effort to achieve anything, he's definitely a good lynch candidate. | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On December 03 2012 15:45 Keirathi wrote: You know, I was on the fence about BH. There is definitely a point to be made about why would scum BH switch off of the vig at the last second. (I could also make the counterpoint of why would scum BH, in Bureaucracy, vote himself right at the deadline to "avoid" a no-lynch, which he did, but his vote didn't count because it was too late). I was trying to convince myself that maybe BH could just be playing completely differently from every town game he has played ever, and suddenly become a bad player. But I keep coming back to this: Now, we KNOW that one of DYH/marv got their ability off (unless you want to conspiracy theory about scum having 2 KP *AND* shooting their own teamate...I find that even more unlikely than scum BH switching off the vig at the last second, though). Did anyone else actually assume that scum wouldn't have a roleblocker? If someone can honestly tell me that they thought that with 2 blue roles claimed day 1, that one of them would get an action off because there wouldn't be a roleblocker, then speak up because that was not my thought process at all. Very valid point. I'm guessing we don't have roleblock notifications at this point I see four possibilites 1) There is no scum RB 2) The scum RB got hit by a town RB 3) Scum Rbed Marv 4) Scum rbed someone random 3 and 4 would be stupid for scum with a vig and a detective. So it must be 1 or 2 IF DYH actually is the vig, which I see likely at this point. Scum shooting one of their own night 1 would be silly. DYH claimed vig, but he could have easily shot a townie instead in scum did have 2 kp Btw there is an outside chance DYH is SK, but I'll disregard that for now until another 2 NK night happens | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On December 03 2012 23:18 wherebugsgo wrote: ye sandro has it correct. A scum who is not going to die or is not under in any pressure to bus is almost certainly not going to bus. Any of VE's pushes that "seemed" genuine were probably on townies. Guys looking at VE's filter for shit is dumb. He probably made it an intentional mindbomb. I did that shit last game looking at the first discovered scum's filter and mislynched someone because of it Look at others interactions with VE, not VE's reactions with them | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
DON'T TRUST THE WORDS OF A CONFIRMED SCUM in other words | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On December 03 2012 16:04 Blazinghand wrote: And here's what's really bugging me, Keirathi. You're not playing for the town here, you're not trying to reason out reads or interact with people, all you're doing is tunnelling me. Besides a very very brief response to DYH talking about ace, and calling Sandro town, you have refused to participate in the thread. Now, granted, I'm not captain mchelpful always but I share my thoughts because I want people to analyze, think, and develop. You have refused to share your thoughts, develop scumreads, talk about flips, or do ANYTHING but tunnel me and respond to the numerous people who have defended me in thread. This "looks" like aggressive town but it's not. What this is is scum OPTING OUT of the discourse. Just like Djoref did in Mario, because it's an easy way to look town as scum. A town player has lots of things to share, but you have NOTHING. All you have is tunnelling me. That's a great way to avoid giving reads and revealing your scum motive, and you're better than that. Most townies are better than that. This is scum play, it's play against the town, and I won't stand for it. Your blood shall flow a beautiful crimson. ^^^Agreed on that BH Tunneling is easy way for scum to look like scumhunting but not. It makes it so scum do not have to share reads. Now, if Keir had developed multiple people of emphasis for scumhunting and then chose one or town of them to tunnel, it would be town motivated for sure. But, BH, we must consider that Keir could genuinely be town convinced you are scum. However, I am leaning scum on Keir because of 1) Ace's actions d1 2) The tunneling of you But, we should really lynch WBG, I'll make a kickass case later on him | ||
ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
Anyway, let me first write up what I wanted to yesterday but could not get to before defending myself from bugs. Catching up to the thread I am gonna scratch pretty much all of what I had yesterday. I am going to comment on some of the remaining players now, with a reread of the thread: BH: Fuck what I said, I am leaning town on him now. Zealos: I would like to get rid of him as he is just a useless lurking piece of space at the moment. His saving grace is firstly that there are better lynches today and secondly (and more importantly) he got voted by VE. While VE is scum and therefore his votes are much more likely to end up on townies (see later in the day with DP and DYH) I don't feel like just taking his filter as 100%-foolproof evidence, heck he softdefended me and I am fucking town. Xatalos: This is more or less where it gets interesting. Before the reread I had a scumread on him, this is largely due to the fact that he has an incredibly annoying (to me) way to express his thoughts, convoluted to no end, e.g.: + Show Spoiler + On December 02 2012 22:46 Xatalos wrote: I can somewhat relate to your reasons for voting DP... Although they're still narrow-minded reasons, they're not necessarily scummy reasons. Combined with my intuition telling me your late roleclaim wasn't any elaborate Mafia tactic (which it could possibly be, but I have problems believing it - Occam's razor points to the simpler explanation), I'm starting to lean slightly town on you. In addition, such heavy tunneling isn't really townish, but it's not an effective Mafia playstyle either. Mafia would rather leave their options open, not limit them willingly. What's a good point is that Mafia might have a roleblocker. If they roleblock you, we're back to square one and have to decide the truth of your roleclaim with what you've said, not with your power usage. In any case, you should claim your shot RIGHT before the deadline. Let's consider the options for Mafia if they don't have time to change their roleblock action based on your target: 1) They can roleblock you, preventing you from becoming a confirmed Vanilla Townie (after your shot has been used). But if you just shoot me or some other townie (and you're not a very threatening presence to Mafia in any case), it might be beneficial for Mafia to let the shot go through. They'd get rid of one townie and just lose one mislynch candidate. 2) They can skip using a roleblock or roleblock marvellosity instead (in case he didn't fakeclaim). This would make you a confirmed Vanilla Townie but potentially prevent marvellosity's night action and most of all likely kill 2 townies in a single night. If you claim your shot early, Mafia will have an easy time deciding their best course of action. If you do it at the deadline, Mafia will have to take a risk and decide their possible roleblock usage without information about your target. Although I guess it has to be me after all this tunneling, which kind of makes me hope you're fakeclaiming, but you never know. Reading the exchange between WBG and BH, I'm starting to lean on WBG being town and BH being Mafia. WBG's reasoning is coherent and townish, but BH looks like he's just dodging issues and ignoring facts while doing what he decided beforehand (pushing the lynch to DP, next up DYH). What's even weirder is the contradiction between his earlier and later playstyle: at first he swinged his vote around for the smallest reasons, but then he wouldn't budge from getting DP lynched no matter what. Where did this confidence suddenly come from, considering his earlier wishy-washiness? And even with his arguments being repeatedly refuted? I'm just getting more and more suspicious of BH the more I think about it. this entire post can be summed up into this: -I think you are town DYH, because of the reasons for tunneling you just shared and the late claim -Please claim your shot just before deadline to avoid too much chance for mafia to interfere, oh and wifom -I am getting a townread on WBG and BH leans scum to me or his last post: + Show Spoiler + On December 03 2012 23:59 Xatalos wrote: I guess that's a fair assumption, but not foolproof. For example, I bussed my scumbuddy hard in a previous game although I wasn't in any immediate danger - just to gain towncred and win the game with that. And VE didn't even BUS Zealos, he just throwed a vote at him and easily changed it away from him. I think that's very possibly just some distancing, not necessarily bussing or genuine lynch effort. Even so, I agree that VE's comment on ShiaoPi was much more suspicious than his vote for Zealos. VE seemed pretty reluctant to even talk about ShiaoPi, and he was especially uncomfortable with the thought of lynching ShiaoPi. The obvious explanation is that ShiaoPi is Mafia, although it's only a piece of circumstantial evidence. Still, combined with ShiaoPi's clear background role and lack of effort to achieve anything, he's definitely a good lynch candidate. It just hurts to look at it imo, the information within the post is so little in relation to the lengt Look through Xata's filter, it's full of elaborate stuff without a real conclusion/course of action. This is a clear scumtell in my eyes, no need for that much fluff if you are contributing. There are also a lot of "cases" which he never followed up entirely in a committing way. The problem I have with a potential scum-Xata is that he is making sense. Also he did not jump on the marv bandwagon d1, something I think scum would have loved to do, having a real chance to get a really good player mislynched d1. Conclusion on Xata, null leaning slightly in the red. Just because I mentioned DYH in my post before, he is confirmed town to me, I don't buy shenanigans with scum shooting themselves and stuff. Now on to the good stuff: Keirathi Obviously my changed read on BH is important for a red kei. but let's start from looking at ace: -He has been dickish, trolly and unhelpful, not exactly a scumtell but it adds to the entire picture. -What makes me wonder is especially the parts in his filter with "shiao/debears/DYH"-interaction and "shiao/VE/DP"-interaction. I do not remember having thoroughly interacted much with DYH, there were some questions from debears which I answered, also I did not interact with VE/DP in a remarkable kind of way. So I have no clue where he got this from, conclusions he does not read the thread thoroughly and makes shit up as he goes to appear contributing. Moving on to Kei now, While I initially agreed with a lot of his points against BH, I was also in the game from the beginning. Now with a clear reread I do not read BH as scummy anymore, from someone who replaces in I would expect him to have a clear mindset as well and I believe Keirathi to be a good enough player to be able to come to the same conclusion as I did. The entire amount of tunneling onto BH as an "easy" target seems to me like an attempt to just derail the entire thread into bascially the same discussion we had at the end of d1. Also the complete disregard for anything else, why? Cuz scum! ##vote: Keirathi Before I forget it, honorable mention to Lazermonkey, get out of your lurkhole and do something, you are pretty much up next right after Kei! | ||
ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
Uh...I cannot help being mentioned by scum in softdefending manner? I don't even see how you can be willing to lynch me off for sth. like this. I admit that I was not the largest help d1, but I never am one of the most contributing persons d1..... Dunno where the rest of his "case" went, oh wait, there was none. This feels like you guys are just wanting to policylynch me for inactivity. | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On December 04 2012 00:31 ShiaoPi wrote: now onto bugs's motive to lynch me: Uh...I cannot help being mentioned by scum in softdefending manner? I don't even see how you can be willing to lynch me off for sth. like this. I admit that I was not the largest help d1, but I never am one of the most contributing persons d1..... Dunno where the rest of his "case" went, oh wait, there was none. This feels like you guys are just wanting to policylynch me for inactivity. Overreacting a bit? There's plenty of time for you to scumhunt and prove your town if you are indeed town | ||
ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
On December 04 2012 00:34 debears wrote: Overreacting a bit? There's plenty of time for you to scumhunt and prove your town if you are indeed town Well I just did, duh. I am just annoyed to catch up to stuff like this, getting voted for for no reason. | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On December 04 2012 00:36 ShiaoPi wrote: Well I just did, duh. I am just annoyed to catch up to stuff like this, getting voted for for no reason. True dat. Let me clarify this with you You have a town read on BH you have a town read on zealos You have a scum read on xatalos you have a scum read on keirathi Also, why Keirathi over Xatalos? You have been suspicious of Xatalos, yet you choose a replacement player over someone who has been in the game? Granted, Keirathi is scummy, but I'm not comfortable lynching him right now over players who have been here the whole time and are worthless | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
Eh, maybe I would be willing to. I just thought of two things Ace did 1) Voted for Marv. Didn't give any kind of scumreads after 2) Tried to shut me down on multiple occasions Both are pretty scummy at this point. Keirathi hasn't done anything to change those :/ Shiao what do you think of WBG? | ||
Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
On December 04 2012 00:24 ShiaoPi wrote: hai bandwagon much? Anyway, let me first write up what I wanted to yesterday but could not get to before defending myself from bugs. Catching up to the thread I am gonna scratch pretty much all of what I had yesterday. I am going to comment on some of the remaining players now, with a reread of the thread: BH: Fuck what I said, I am leaning town on him now. Zealos: I would like to get rid of him as he is just a useless lurking piece of space at the moment. His saving grace is firstly that there are better lynches today and secondly (and more importantly) he got voted by VE. While VE is scum and therefore his votes are much more likely to end up on townies (see later in the day with DP and DYH) I don't feel like just taking his filter as 100%-foolproof evidence, heck he softdefended me and I am fucking town. Xatalos: This is more or less where it gets interesting. Before the reread I had a scumread on him, this is largely due to the fact that he has an incredibly annoying (to me) way to express his thoughts, convoluted to no end, e.g.: + Show Spoiler + On December 02 2012 22:46 Xatalos wrote: I can somewhat relate to your reasons for voting DP... Although they're still narrow-minded reasons, they're not necessarily scummy reasons. Combined with my intuition telling me your late roleclaim wasn't any elaborate Mafia tactic (which it could possibly be, but I have problems believing it - Occam's razor points to the simpler explanation), I'm starting to lean slightly town on you. In addition, such heavy tunneling isn't really townish, but it's not an effective Mafia playstyle either. Mafia would rather leave their options open, not limit them willingly. What's a good point is that Mafia might have a roleblocker. If they roleblock you, we're back to square one and have to decide the truth of your roleclaim with what you've said, not with your power usage. In any case, you should claim your shot RIGHT before the deadline. Let's consider the options for Mafia if they don't have time to change their roleblock action based on your target: 1) They can roleblock you, preventing you from becoming a confirmed Vanilla Townie (after your shot has been used). But if you just shoot me or some other townie (and you're not a very threatening presence to Mafia in any case), it might be beneficial for Mafia to let the shot go through. They'd get rid of one townie and just lose one mislynch candidate. 2) They can skip using a roleblock or roleblock marvellosity instead (in case he didn't fakeclaim). This would make you a confirmed Vanilla Townie but potentially prevent marvellosity's night action and most of all likely kill 2 townies in a single night. If you claim your shot early, Mafia will have an easy time deciding their best course of action. If you do it at the deadline, Mafia will have to take a risk and decide their possible roleblock usage without information about your target. Although I guess it has to be me after all this tunneling, which kind of makes me hope you're fakeclaiming, but you never know. Reading the exchange between WBG and BH, I'm starting to lean on WBG being town and BH being Mafia. WBG's reasoning is coherent and townish, but BH looks like he's just dodging issues and ignoring facts while doing what he decided beforehand (pushing the lynch to DP, next up DYH). What's even weirder is the contradiction between his earlier and later playstyle: at first he swinged his vote around for the smallest reasons, but then he wouldn't budge from getting DP lynched no matter what. Where did this confidence suddenly come from, considering his earlier wishy-washiness? And even with his arguments being repeatedly refuted? I'm just getting more and more suspicious of BH the more I think about it. this entire post can be summed up into this: -I think you are town DYH, because of the reasons for tunneling you just shared and the late claim -Please claim your shot just before deadline to avoid too much chance for mafia to interfere, oh and wifom -I am getting a townread on WBG and BH leans scum to me or his last post: + Show Spoiler + On December 03 2012 23:59 Xatalos wrote: I guess that's a fair assumption, but not foolproof. For example, I bussed my scumbuddy hard in a previous game although I wasn't in any immediate danger - just to gain towncred and win the game with that. And VE didn't even BUS Zealos, he just throwed a vote at him and easily changed it away from him. I think that's very possibly just some distancing, not necessarily bussing or genuine lynch effort. Even so, I agree that VE's comment on ShiaoPi was much more suspicious than his vote for Zealos. VE seemed pretty reluctant to even talk about ShiaoPi, and he was especially uncomfortable with the thought of lynching ShiaoPi. The obvious explanation is that ShiaoPi is Mafia, although it's only a piece of circumstantial evidence. Still, combined with ShiaoPi's clear background role and lack of effort to achieve anything, he's definitely a good lynch candidate. It just hurts to look at it imo, the information within the post is so little in relation to the lengt Look through Xata's filter, it's full of elaborate stuff without a real conclusion/course of action. This is a clear scumtell in my eyes, no need for that much fluff if you are contributing. There are also a lot of "cases" which he never followed up entirely in a committing way. The problem I have with a potential scum-Xata is that he is making sense. Also he did not jump on the marv bandwagon d1, something I think scum would have loved to do, having a real chance to get a really good player mislynched d1. Conclusion on Xata, null leaning slightly in the red. Just because I mentioned DYH in my post before, he is confirmed town to me, I don't buy shenanigans with scum shooting themselves and stuff. Now on to the good stuff: Keirathi Obviously my changed read on BH is important for a red kei. but let's start from looking at ace: -He has been dickish, trolly and unhelpful, not exactly a scumtell but it adds to the entire picture. -What makes me wonder is especially the parts in his filter with "shiao/debears/DYH"-interaction and "shiao/VE/DP"-interaction. I do not remember having thoroughly interacted much with DYH, there were some questions from debears which I answered, also I did not interact with VE/DP in a remarkable kind of way. So I have no clue where he got this from, conclusions he does not read the thread thoroughly and makes shit up as he goes to appear contributing. Moving on to Kei now, While I initially agreed with a lot of his points against BH, I was also in the game from the beginning. Now with a clear reread I do not read BH as scummy anymore, from someone who replaces in I would expect him to have a clear mindset as well and I believe Keirathi to be a good enough player to be able to come to the same conclusion as I did. The entire amount of tunneling onto BH as an "easy" target seems to me like an attempt to just derail the entire thread into bascially the same discussion we had at the end of d1. Also the complete disregard for anything else, why? Cuz scum! ##vote: Keirathi Before I forget it, honorable mention to Lazermonkey, get out of your lurkhole and do something, you are pretty much up next right after Kei! Hmmmm. I guess you're right about my tendency to say things in too many words, haha... This has always been the case, though, especially when I have time to think (close to a deadline I often write more concisely, for example). But I still don't understand why you called my posting "pure fluff" earlier when you could find plenty of good points (that even "make sense" to you) now... Where's the logic in that? On another topic, I like your analysis of Ace/Keirathi. I haven't quite had him as a scumread at any point, but not as a townread either. Ace's weird "X/Y/Z interaction" posts and Keirathi's pure focus on BH aren't looking good. It's hard to judge a replacement player, but nothing in either of their filters screams "town!", and that's suspicious in itself. In light of your latest post, I'm not so sure about you being the right lynch anymore. Luckily we have still like 30 hours before the deadline, so we should be able to get a lot more info to decide the correct lynch before the deadline hits - at least if people would start being more active, that is...... | ||
ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
On December 04 2012 00:40 debears wrote: True dat. Let me clarify this with you You have a town read on BH you have a town read on zealos You have a scum read on xatalos you have a scum read on keirathi Also, why Keirathi over Xatalos? You have been suspicious of Xatalos, yet you choose a replacement player over someone who has been in the game? Granted, Keirathi is scummy, but I'm not comfortable lynching him right now over players who have been here the whole time and are worthless town on BH, Zealos is null, kind of need more activity from him to judge. Xata is null leaning scum Kei is scum. I am choosing Keirathi over Xatalos as I am more sure on my read on Kei. Regarding bugs, I would like to see some more analysis from him for the lynch we have to decide on. I have him as town-leaning, but I also did not focus on him when I was rereading. | ||
ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
Maybe I was exaggerating, but your posts have a ton of fluff inside. I said they are logically coherent and could make sense from a town point of view. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Do townies tunnel? When they're confident they found a scum? I said I would reevaluate BH if someone could honestly tell me that they thought that one of marv/DYH's night actions would get through, because my assumption was that one would be killed and one would be RB'd. | ||
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