Keir, looking at everything regarding BH, it's quite possible he is town this game. Look at Mario, his play was subpar there. He pulled the "call Z-bo town and then vote for him" play as the jk lol.

MrZ had a good point about BH switching off DYH

1) It was right before deadline. It had to be a reaction. No way BH could go back to the scum QT and think it out with his possible scummates, unless he thought DYH would get lynched anyways
2) It was consistent with BH's don't lynch claimed blues without counterclaim
3) It would be much more favorable for scum to lynch a possible vig with no/little repercussions instead of leading a lynch on another townie

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

December 03 2012 02:23 GMT

#1122

I think we should consider killing ShiaoPi today.

I'll be back later when I can actually form a coherent post.

MrZentor

United States1648 Posts

December 03 2012 02:54 GMT

#1123

Ah, a target I can more or less agree on.

debears

United States2516 Posts

December 03 2012 03:03 GMT

#1124

On December 03 2012 11:23 wherebugsgo wrote:
I think we should consider killing ShiaoPi today.

I'll be back later when I can actually form a coherent post.

How about we lynch you?

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

December 03 2012 03:10 GMT

#1125

MrZ, what are your thoughts on Zealos?

Housekeeping: With DYH actually being a vigi, I'm less inclined to believe that BH changed his vote last second for a save as scum. There are things he could have thought from either a town or scum perspective that would lead him to change his vote, sure. But he didn't have to, and that's quite a snapcall to make as scum.

For some reason I don't quite want to put "BH townie now" but ... that seems more likely. I'd rather pursue non-BH targets today.

+ Show Spoiler +

SECRET PARANOID THOUGHT: SCUM TEAM HAS 2 KP, DYH NOT A VIGI, HAD TO SHOOT VE TO GET CONFIRMED STATUS. ZOMGZOMGZOMGZOMGZOMG. Just a thought, because I do loves me some speculation. We don't know how much KP scum have, and so while DYH probably town, we've got no confirmation. Could also be third party with KP, etc. etc.

DoYouHas

United States1140 Posts

December 03 2012 04:08 GMT

#1126

I'm going to be around for a couple hours. My suggestion, go back through day1 with the knowledge that DP and I are town, VE is scum, BH is likely town, and the the major voting patterns around Marv, DP, and myself were all on townies. We have quite a bit of good information to work with to reevaluate day1. Let's not waste that opportunity.

DoYouHas

United States1140 Posts

December 03 2012 04:36 GMT

#1127

Wow. I underestimated just how tired I am. Don't have it in me to review day1 as long as I thought I could. Gnight.

debears

United States2516 Posts

December 03 2012 05:04 GMT

#1128

On December 03 2012 12:10 austinmcc wrote:
MrZ, what are your thoughts on Zealos?

Austin i did think about the same thing in terms of the possibility of 2 kp. Would be quite the gambit though

Xatalos

Finland9675 Posts

December 03 2012 06:44 GMT

#1129

I came here half-expecting to see myself dead, but it looks like DYH made a perfect shot. Especially since VE had kind of dropped off the radar and wasn't in real danger of getting lynched anytime soon. I'm also glad that my first scumread was correct, although it was more of a "feel" read (since he had posted nothing of importance).

I'm not liking a BH lynch as much anymore. It's a good point that he had little reason to save the Vigi while putting himself to the spotlight by doing so. It would have been much easier to remain passive and let DYH die. Everything's possible, but Occam's razor points to BH = town being the more likely option based on this alone.

Looking at VE's filter, it seems to give some town points to at least debears, BH and myself. I'm torn on Zealos, because VE did vote for him, but he didn't provide any reasoning, just kind of dropped the vote and then quickly switched to DP when the bandwagon started to form on him. And looking at the own actions of Zealos, I'm liking him best as the lynch for today.

##Vote Zealos

I'm curious DYH, what's your read on me now? You pushed me for all of Day 1 but then (fortunately) didn't shoot me anyway. I'm also very interested to hear why you chose to shoot VE, and what do you think of all the interactions between me and VE? And who would be your top lynches right now?

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

December 03 2012 06:45 GMT

#1130

You know, I was on the fence about BH. There is definitely a point to be made about why would scum BH switch off of the vig at the last second. (I could also make the counterpoint of why would scum BH, in Bureaucracy, vote himself right at the deadline to "avoid" a no-lynch, which he did, but his vote didn't count because it was too late).

I was trying to convince myself that maybe BH could just be playing completely differently from every town game he has played ever, and suddenly become a bad player. But I keep coming back to this:

On December 03 2012 07:13 Keirathi wrote:

Show nested quote +

I just want to talk about this quote a bit as well.

In any normal-ish game that I'm ever in, if I'm town and two people blue claim on day 1, my automatic no-thinking-needed assumption would be that one of them would be roleblocked and one would be NK'd. The only way BH's post makes sense is if you assume there isn't a roleblocker (and/or mafia KP, but that's just silly), which I find hard to believe any townie would assume by default.

Scum BH knows that there isn't a scum RB?

Now, we KNOW that one of DYH/marv got their ability off (unless you want to conspiracy theory about scum having 2 KP *AND* shooting their own teamate...I find that even more unlikely than scum BH switching off the vig at the last second, though).

Did anyone else actually assume that scum wouldn't have a roleblocker? If someone can honestly tell me that they thought that with 2 blue roles claimed day 1, that one of them would get an action off because there wouldn't be a roleblocker, then speak up because that was not my thought process at all.

Blazinghand

United States25558 Posts

December 03 2012 06:46 GMT

#1131

Keirathi should be smarter than this.

##vote Keirathi

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

December 03 2012 06:50 GMT

#1132

On December 03 2012 15:46 Blazinghand wrote:
Keirathi should be smarter than this.

##vote Keirathi

You still haven't made an actual argument against my case, or the no-roleblocker assumption. You just keep calling me bad/stupid.

Blazinghand

United States25558 Posts

December 03 2012 06:52 GMT

#1133

On December 03 2012 15:50 Keirathi wrote:

Show nested quote +

You still haven't made an actual argument against my case, or the no-roleblocker assumption. You just keep calling me bad/stupid.

I made an argument against your case, which is that earlier in the night I assume, and state clearly, that I expect one of the two of them to be blocked. The fact that you continue to opt out of the discussion means you're intentionally avoiding being helpful. You're a smart guy, and you're not playing like you do as town. Your blood shall run red.

Blazinghand

United States25558 Posts

December 03 2012 06:52 GMT

#1134

Also the fact that your case is a long-winded bad conspiracy theory that is utterly out of touch with reality and the simple explanation which is that I'm town and all the pro-town stuff I did right at deadline was done because I am town.