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Chrono Trigger Mafia - Page 42

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Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17969 Posts
December 13 2012 00:32 GMT
#7512
Oh, and a big big BIG thanks to the hosts. Must have been a TON of work and it was a lot of fun to play! Thanks Greymist and Mementoss (and Hassybaby)
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17969 Posts
December 13 2012 02:44 GMT
#7589
Done with my hosting duties, back to endgame analysis.

Now that the plan to bus Toad is detailed, it was actually a really good idea. But the scumteam at least got TC pretty much confirmed town between the two checks. It never occurred to me that this was a scum taking a completely mad gamble at a 2 for 1 trade, which converted him into confirmed town when he hit a 3P, lol.

However, Risen, in general, played a rather excellent game. I, and some others, attacked him pretty heavily in D2 over his completely inconsistent play in D1 and rather than trying to talk it right he just made the scenario ever crazier until I gave up in disgust and wrote him off for figuring out at a later date. While Kita said that the check could have been used to lynch a townie, then Toad, Toad was looking absolutely terrible by the end of D2 and imho even an H1 vs. Toad case (H1 was also looking bad around D3) would probably have ended up in a straight-up Toad lynch. Oh, and my rolecheck would have swung it, but that could not have been known at the time. Also, near the endgame when TC started crazy speculation about my wincon and I called him a complete idiot, I'm glad to hear he was actually playing towards his wincon and helping his scumbuddy survive, rather than being an actual idiot.

The rest of the scumteam seemed pretty lost. I think SnB sums it up quite well in the QT:
we should've killed syllo though

we really had no idea what we were doing this game

greymist i'm sorry i solemnly swear that next time i play in a game of yours i will truly give it my all




Toad respawning at the end really pissed me off. I thought I had played rather well and was going to see it all screwed up by having a bajillion townies alive doing damage to Lavos way faster than I could kill Toad. Him being at 500 HP made that doable. Also, I was totally OP at the end, lol. 200 damage per night and additionally a choice out of a 100 damage + roleblock, a 500 heal or 75 damage to 3 targets.

Anyway, my plan was to play my normal town self, but it got screwed up slightly when people wanted me in a party and completely utterly bumfucked when Chronicler claimed the DT check. Took a bit of thinking what I was going to claim. I was thinking of claiming Masa & Mune the third party role that had to kill Magus, but was unsure I could keep that up til endgame, so I just claimed my alignment to save my ass. Damned lucky I did so before getting randomed onto a party. That would have been my death if I hadn't claimed, lol.

The rest of the game I was pretty much forced into overdrive activity, because most townies could get semi-confirmed with their roles or being on a party, while I would always be a possible lynch unless there was someone who most of town was convinced was scum. Scum can gain some town credit by pushing a 3P lynch, while uncertain townies can lynch a 3P when uncertain about who is scum, so I had to be extra active and scumhunt like crazy to save my ass from townies who might want to lynch me. I'm glad to hear that almost all of the people who brought it up were scum.

Thanks again to Greymist and Mementoss for this game
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17969 Posts
December 13 2012 02:49 GMT
#7591
On December 13 2012 11:26 Clarity_nl wrote:
Like I said in obs, I swear I had the strongest ability in the game, infinite heal equal to the damage someone took. I can't believe marv died so early LOL

gg town!

edit: Syllo took all the credit for sand lynch though I swear I did more to try and make it happen. Why was I so unconvincing?

Well, I wasn't ON the sandro lynch to start with, but your case really didn't matter much. Sandroba was scum because Syllo said he was. Everything else is pretty circumstantial when compared to two players who know each other so well. It was a tough break for Sandro to be scum with Syllo on town. The reverse would also have been true, as Syllo is also much better as town than as scum and Sandro would see through it in a similar manner. I'll go back and read your case, but at the time I thought it was bringing up things that weren't indicative of scum and dismissed it, although I did give you a tick for townie for pushing so hard.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17969 Posts
December 13 2012 02:58 GMT
#7595
On December 13 2012 11:45 austinmcc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 13 2012 11:34 Adam4167 wrote:
On December 13 2012 11:29 austinmcc wrote:
Gah, gg all.

Didn't go enough to try and take control of anything when I joined, had no clue what was going on and what everyone had claimed/done/taken in terms of damage. Still don't have much of a clue, lol.

I still can't believe you lynched a bunch of innocent old men, but I do appreciate the phagga lynch. I didn't think I'd be able to get out of things, even though I didn't think the lynch on me was particularly strong.

BIG thanks to Grey and mementoss for hosting this. Ended up being quite a bit of fun.


I really started to question whether or not you were scum somewhere a day or two after you joined. Then I went back and reread Zbosons filter and just convinced myself all over again. It really sucked for both of us, since you couldn't defend his actions and apparently no one wanted to hear about the person that used to occupy your role.

Yeah, nothing I can do about Z-bosons actions or posts. For reference, he actually DID take no action on Cycle 3, and then again Cycles 5 and 6. Grey asked me to replace during 5 but I wanted to try and catch up on the thread, which I failed at, so I came in 6 still behind. Oh well.

I was hoping to get a little cred from not shooting you later on, but just didn't do enough with it and I think maybe chose a bad target with my faked action claims. Not sure if the outcome would have been different had I given better targets though.

Would probably have been better to claim a heal on someone who had claimed no damage up to that point. The shield stuck around and it was therefore weird when damage didn't add up. A heal at full HP would go unnoticed. However, substituting in, I don't blame you for missing that little bit when people kicked up a shitstorm about Hapa not claiming healed.

Other than that, I was actually quite scared you'd actually convince town to switch onto me. I was pretty sure you were scum, but I was 3P so my case might not have been trusted and you somehow managed to convince town off yourself and onto phagga the day before when I was away at the beach.

I gave Risen credit for his scumplay, but you deserve a hand as well. You went down fighting tooth and nail and that ##self-destruct had me pretty scared for the hour before the resolution.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17969 Posts
December 13 2012 03:04 GMT
#7597
Not sure what role to nominate for best role award. I really liked Dalton's countdown. Had me really twisted up trying to figure out what the hell it did. Norstein Bekker was also good.

Master of Kitchens on the townside maybe, but I am not sure what his stuff actually did or how it worked at all, because Drazerk, as always lied his ass off about all of it.


Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17969 Posts
December 13 2012 03:07 GMT
#7600
Oh, psssts
+ Show Spoiler +
VE has no competition for best 3P player in the 2012 mafia awards, do something about it!
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17969 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-13 03:43:43
December 13 2012 03:41 GMT
#7605
I won't contest that I played too towny. I talked about that with Syllo. However, my wincon says nothing about Toad reviving, so once Toad was dead I figured that all I had to do was survive and my best bet for that was to help town kill Lavos asap, because he might kill me if the struggle lasted too long. I also saved what I thought was a heal for that occasion (turns out it was a heal), or if scum went nuts and wanted me dead. Then suddenly Toad got thrown back into the ring and I thought he might respawn with max HP and I'd be screwed

Luckily my new abiities were completely OP and Toad with 500 HP was killable in 2 cycles (assuming no roleblocks), even without town help. However, what would've been way worse is if town didn't trust me and kept me roleblocked, so in hindsight, even with Toad respawning and Lavos dying faster being bad, my assistance to town also ensured that I would at least not get roleblocked by town and just had to deal with Lavos' random roleblocks.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17969 Posts
December 13 2012 03:47 GMT
#7606
Why was this never used in a daypost?! :o
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17969 Posts
December 13 2012 16:54 GMT
#7630
One clear advantage that town had in the early game, was that a number of townies were just ridiculously good at looking really obviously townie. Dieno and Oats of course, but I had Clarity down as well and Syllo got Keirathi right.

Funny to see that my initial town read on TC was 100% wrong (I did recant it pretty quickly, but still). Lesson for the future: scum come up with dumb plans just to look townie and know when to retract them when they get called derps for it.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17969 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-13 19:21:20
December 13 2012 19:19 GMT
#7634
Risen, I was almost agreeing with you, until I started reasoning it out. The lack of information about how parties worked turned out to be a boon for town, but D1 working out differently could have completely screwed them over.

Town (and everybody) had so little information that we assumed a straightforward system, while the actual system was way more convoluted. This assumption turned out to work really well, but could equally well have screwed town over monumentously. Assume for a second that Sandro or Toad managed to form the party and took 3 townies along. That person does not get lynched the next day and is in a good position to be in the party again. This party is FORCED to take 2 unconfirmed townies along. These will probably BOTH get lynched before the whole system is exposed.

One thing scum should really have payed more attention to was the bit in the OP where it said that failing a party would be extremely bad for town. Nowhere is this mentioned in your QT that you should make a combined effort to get into a party. A push to really be included in the first party could have done SO much for you. However, not a single scummer even tried to look townie in D1:

Sandro started off well, but went afk and never came back.
Toad derped around.
SnB was away.
risk.nuke never manages to make himself look excessively townie (just in his meta to be fairly unreadable until later in the game).
Zbo started okay, but never more than that.
TC started really well, but let it slip until at the end of the day he was actually a scumspect.
BioSC was lurking.

Using the 7 members to make a strong push for 1 player being REALLY townie and getting included on the party would have set scum up for about 5 cycles worth of town chaos.

Also, you say you didn't have enough KP, but I honestly think that is false. SnB had 250 to claimers, in addition to his 20% HP destroyer. Sandro had 200 over time, VE had quite a lot of conditional, Toad had 100, risk had 150 conditional and you yourself had some random KP. Add 200 factional KP and by making directed use of your KP to kill off healers and other protective roles (or in the beginning just focusing on strong town characters like Marv, Syllo or Kita), you could have killed off far more than 7 players at night. Hell, as it is 6 townies died and that was while severely derping up the KP.

The way the game played out it looks like a landslide victory for town that scum was incapable of stopping, but with better D1 play (taking advantage of the sheer number of scummers) and more coordinated night actions, it could absolutely have been possible to hit Lavos in a very advantageous position.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17969 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-13 19:39:44
December 13 2012 19:36 GMT
#7636
Oh, and the reason 100 damage was "wet paper bag", was because there were 10 townies alive with rather high HP and 2 healers still left over, whereas scum was all but wiped out. In an endgame where scum was still hitting with their abilities 100 extra damage thrown around randomly could have seemed like a far bigger deal.

Some roles may have been a tad overpowered. Greymist already mentioned Syllo's role. Clarity's role was pretty damned OP too. Prom's mass roleblock, once coordinated was also damned strong. However, I don't think the setup was inherently unbalanced.

In completely other news, I have figured out all the night result puzzles!

Weird DoT: scum going derpaderp with their KP
Missing damage to Lavos: host error, Syllo's boulder toss didn't get counted.
Unexplained 75 damages: Hapa throwing flame throwers around like it's no big thing.
Everything related to Drazerk: Drazerk lying his ass off. Except for the roleblock. Guess a fizzled roleblock didn't need explaining, whereas it definitely did need explaining why I couldn't chat to Drazerk
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17969 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-13 22:53:16
December 13 2012 22:52 GMT
#7656
On December 14 2012 07:43 strongandbig wrote:
But yeah, having two replacements didn't help either, since the game was so active it was pretty much impossible to replace into competently

austin replaced in amazingly well. He must have put in a TON of effort to look so good. Especially when people were about ready to lynch Zbo. Getting phagga lynched over himself was a pretty crazy feat... and with 20/20 hindsight he probably saved my ass. If I had been there I would have yelled and screamed and raged at everybody to stop being idiots, but I have to admit that he probably saved me.

Particularly getting the last 2 votes or so for saving a confirmed townie from a modkill. /facepalm.

Nobody would have found TC ever after that totally wild claim and I am not sure I could have actually gotten phagga lynched over myself. It would definitely have been a lot harder.

VE, however, replaced in after 1 cycle and while the thread was moving really fast, he should have been able to keep up better than he did. If he hadn't gotten modkilled he would almost certainly have gotten either shot or lynched.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17969 Posts
December 13 2012 23:52 GMT
#7659
Fine.

Scum gets elected to party leader and takes 3 townies. In contrast to expectations, party succeeds. Mislynch into any of the town candidates for running for leader. Particularly if it was contested, the other candidate is batantly scum, together with anybody who voted for him.

So at the end of D2 you have "confirmed town" and a mislynch.

D3 party: get your scum leader into the party. This time the party fails (because harder to succeed).
D4 party: push for a party with none of the D3 candidates. Get the OTHER 2 D1 candidates and 2 random townies. Party success is irrelevant. If failure, that is fucking fantastic, if success, then /shrug, you aready have lynch candidates.
D5: mislynch random townie invited into D3 party.
D6: event. Given how terribad we were at the event, you can expect some deaths and lots of fail, regardless of what scum does.
D7: mislynch the OTHER random townie invited into D3 party.

By now you have mislynched 3/3 townies, had townies take a bunch of damage from failed events and hopefully shot some of the claimed healers and/or stronger townies dead by focus firing the KP. Iamperfection could have died from faction KP alone by the end of N3. Using abilities and scum KP, you could have had Marv AND Iamperfection dead. Prom should also be dead by this time. Syllo and Clarity are the dangers. Roleblock Syllo and focus clarity down with scum KP and Mammon Machine by N6. Random 250 damage flying around at people who nameclaimed, risk is chipping away at people in his mason channel and TC is flinging random damage at random people. Additionally you have H1 shooting townies, Adam trying to shoot townies.

By the end of D7 you have 10 dead townies. Of the good players maybe Syllo is still hanging on and Kita is probably alive. I might be alive too, but I am nothing to fear.

D8-10 you will probably lose a scum or two to lynches. Bus the crap out of Toad. In the meantime clean up Syllo and Kita. Town is now left with no strong abilities and no clear leaders. Maybe Hapa or Keirathi can rally, the town, but honestly, they should be firmly in some scum player's hand. By this time I have thrown in my lot with scum, except that I still want to kill Toad.

You hit Lavos with no strong abilities, 6/7 scum alive and town down to about 6 people as well, all already taken some damage and no healers. Lavos takes 350 damage (plus 100-200 from abiities) the first day and that decreases as town dies out slowly from scum damage and Lavos damage. Even better if you can somehow convince the little bit of town damage still left to try to kill scum, rather than Lavos. When Toad is dead, Acro starts kiling townies to get the game over as fast as possibe.

GG?
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17969 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-14 03:54:52
December 14 2012 03:54 GMT
#7662
I was writing a long response about how I wasn't assuming the stars aligned when I decided you were just being stupid with confirmation bias. All I was assuming is that scum had a start similar to town's. Town thought they had 4 confirmed townies and they were right. Having 1 scum in there would have been disastrous and just as how town coasted to an easy victory on the back of 4 confirmed townies, scum could have coasted to victory on the back of a D1 "confirmed townie".

Now I'm not sure that makes the game balanced. It seems hard for either team to make a comeback if they get off to a bad start based on (in hindsight) terrible assumptions. Maybe more information was required to make the whole "confirmed" status from being in a successful party less sure. However, I don't know enough about balancing games, and have had too much to drink to comment on that stuff. However, I do strongly feel that scum could have won the game if they had shown more than 0.0 initiative since the start of D1.
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