EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXXI - Page 6
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On November 28 2012 07:12 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: Eh, I just don't see much town motivation from him. Marv told me that looking for motivation in posts was key to unlocking the pieces of the puzzle. What's the purpose for his posts? I don't see much townie motiv for it. I made that longass post to point out of all the fallacies in town motivation, combined with his tendency to not do much in this thread other than soft-attack people. and spread a little suspicion without much evidence Yeah, Debears posted a saying in XXVIII which was something along the lines of "If something doesn't make sense from the point of view of town, it's scum motivated". There's something to that, but also I've seen so much terrible town play. He's a potential candidate mostly because he's a liability and non-contributor imo, just don't get too focused on just him. Meh, I feel feel pretty silly leaving on the note of being sceptical of CC. He really seems to be the one trying the most and actually being critical. In general, and especially in this game where I've got the feeling scum doesn't really have to try, that has to be a town trait. And I missed the part of you questioning Aqua's vote on Kick. I've tried to ask him myself about that, I feel it was weird and I think those questions are worth pursuing. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On November 28 2012 08:44 Oatsmaster wrote: lol CC your case on me says why my play is bad scum play, then you conclude that I am scum??? Also, I was lurking but people werent posting ANYTHING. Again, my 'vote' on CC caused a hell of a discussion, which is good for town in my opinion and started the game off properly. So now your vote on CC was a "vote"? You were really insistant on CC being scum for a long while, now you claim it was never a true scum read? Really? | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On November 28 2012 08:56 Oatsmaster wrote: I see the folly of my bad play d1, but if it helps us to find scum, I am fine with it. So far I've lynched a grand total of 0 scum. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On November 27 2012 07:50 Oatsmaster wrote: Ok based on what I have read, Kickstart and Munke are scum, kickstart used a lousy case to justify lynching the most lynchable target. I say we vote kickstart today [b]##Unvote ##Vote: Kickstart Without any reasoning of course. Go check that section out for yourself. Oats put his vote on Kick at the same time CC set his scum trap for Yamato. What's even more weird is that at the point Oats votes for Kick, CC had just voted for Kick. Not only does Oats abandon his scum read CC, he immediate sheeps him. Meh, now I'm really done for the day. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
Btw, it's not LYLO tomorrow and Oats looks like a good candidate. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On November 28 2012 09:54 Oatsmaster wrote: CC, make a case with reasons saying why I am scum, not why I am bad. Too scummy to be scum is a legit argument. Seriously, if you don't see why saying that Aqua is scum while at the same time saying you can't make a case against him is scummy, I don't know what to tell you. And that's just one of many points. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
Don't have time to post right now, leaning Oats based on my feelings from yesterday. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
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On November 28 2012 19:10 Aquanim wrote: I'm still here. I had a town read on Oats initially (I didn't dislike his early pressure on CC), but his posts have just kept making no damn sense - he keeps contradicting himself. Maybe he's mafia and thinks he can just post disjointed thoughts and get away with it. Yeah, that's kind of grown to become my opinion too. Based on me defending him pretty hard in the beginning of D1 I could see how that'd be the case. I did say though, that his kind of posting is only ok and pro-town very early D1 and since then he's really shown no town motivation. He's shown no thought process that makes me feel he's pushing top scum reads and town agenda. CCs case points this out very well so I don't feel I need to go in depth on it. On November 28 2012 19:10 Aquanim wrote: Whether he's scum or not, there's at least one other elsewhere, and I keep talking myself out of scumreads on most everyone else. Gonna keep thinking about it. Anyone else here and want to have a chat? Yeah, that's what I've been doing as well. I've talked myself into a scum, out of it, into another, repeat. I'm going to have to stop doing that, So in order to move on, and in part by process of elimination, I will decide on who to look into more closely. Cheesecake - After having read his more of his posts again and upon realizing his case against Oats is just not some "omg inconsistencies and bad play!" case, I'm leaning town on Cheesecake. Which means that for D2 I'm not going to bother putting effort into figuring out if he's scum. He seems to think a lot like me tbh and seems to be genuinely scum hunting. Aqua - Again, the post I quoted is another one which I feel indicate Aqua has a town mindset. I'm satisfied enough with his explanation of his Kick vote. Aqua is another one that is off the table for me D2. Helo - I've had a town feel on him, but I haven't kept fully updated on his latest contributions so I will have to look at his filter and figure out why my feelings on him has been town. We'll see how that comes out, but he might be added to this list later. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On November 28 2012 19:21 Oatsmaster wrote: Again, it was a joke. hammering the vote means that your vote causes the guy to be lynched, if you didnt vote for him, he wont be lynched. Do you have examples of my disjointed thoughts? What do you think about helo being scum? I'd recommend you to make a detailed reply to CCs case and explain your thought process behind the scummy things he points out. I don't think you've done this. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On November 28 2012 07:25 HeloKnight wrote: Helo's Complete List of Reads SDM: Strong town. The most active player, constantly probing for information, explaining his thoughts, and generally playing smart. Going through his filter you can see lots of very useful posts commenting on the situation. Very confident on this one. Aquanim: Leaning town. He pushed his Kickstart case, but admitted it had holes when he found them, which shows he's not just tunneling one player. Not a long filter, but generally good posts. Mr. Cheesecake: Leaning town. He's throwing suspicion onto many players, such as myself, yamato, and Jacob, which I see as a town trait. I think he should consider a town explanation on yamato's posts instead of just a scum one, and I think confirmation bias might be a factor. For instance, the post referenced in this case can also be explained by newbie town. Might be scum pushing for an easier mislynch, but I doubt it. His vote onto Munk was also odd, but he's offered an explanation that doesn't tell much, so I'll ignore it. yamato77 Null. I've offered my opinions on him many times, and I still don't know if he's town or scum. I think he really could be either. Lynching him feels like a coinflip to me. A lot will depend on what he does tomorrow. Kickstart: Null. Pushed Oats pretty hard early, which doesn't say much. He's done a pretty good job of explaining himself against multiple accusations, but that's most of what he's done. I'd like to hear a little more about others than just Oats. Jacob Strangelove: Heavily leaning scum. Nearly his entire filter is just one liners, with almost nothing of value. Anything he says would be easily faked by scum. He does nothing but ask useless questions and say pretty obvious things. Will probably write a full case up for tomorrow. Oatsmaster: I don't even know what to say. He's been basically trolling this whole game. He spams about useless stuff, and hasn't done anything to make me think he's town. The only real defense for him is the "too scummy to be scum" defense, and I don't find it very convincing. I refer people to CC's case on him for a good explanation of what I'm getting at. I'm out of time for right now, but I'll elaborate on whatever you all want when I'm back. I'm not in the crowd who thinks lists are inherrently, I think they can be a good tool. However, you really need to build a case on Jacob to justy for a heavy scum lean. I become a little bit worried when someone makes a confident scum read without backing it up with logic to show your thought process. I'm on the fence with Jacob myself and I can see where your points are coming from, but they're also quite generic. The reason I'm not sure about Jacob is because I really haven't seen him push any scum read but has seemed quite content with sheeping. On the other hand I don't particularly agree his questions has been useless overall, to me most of them seems to have been motivated by curiousity. A few times I've read one of his question or one-liners and thought "HAH! time for a scum case on Jacob", just to go back and look at the context and find that they make quite a lot of sense from a town perspective. So while I've expressed some suspions of Jacob, it's mostly been because of the other points I mentioned. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On November 28 2012 20:07 Oatsmaster wrote: My aqua response was to Jacob speculating that 1 scum was not on Munk-es wagon. Ok? good. So I thought that kickstart had 1 suspicious post but then was towny most of the time. I then concluded that Aqua is the scummiest WITHOUT reading his filter. Later on, I read his filter and was surprised that my impressions were wrong. Then I replied to Jacob basically saying that the scum has to be on Munk-es wagon because I cant make a case on kickstart and Aqua There's a long ass case against you, take your time to reply to it in detail. You concluding that Aqua is scummiest without reading his filter and because someone else said so doesn't make you look very town motivated. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On November 28 2012 20:17 JacobStrangelove wrote: Yeah I am waiting for that case xD I have the most fun shutting down people. However considering there were only three truly in lynch situation (imo) yesterday if i went for any you could consider it sheeping. I haven't been pushing a scum read hard because I honestly don't know. As scum this part is easy you pick a poor sod and you harass him and make him look as scum as possible but as town there is more a sea of potential that my poor brain can't handle. I have however been looking for scum and trying to understand people (hence the questions) Yeah, I've been thinking about this exact thing but haven't posted about it because it's wifom etc. But I was thinking "how would I have played this game if I was scum?". This question to me is quite interesting, because when the horror strikes and I rand scum in my next game, I need to play as close to how I'm playing now as possible and I'm not looking forward to that. Anyway, I don't think scum generally would be very confused and flip-floppy. As scum you pick a target (or a few) and go with it. As scum in this game I most likely would've pretended to be confident that player X or Y is scum and I could've easily gotten away with it because frankly, there are good enough cases out there to make it look reasonable. So while your argument is wifom, it's a wifom idea I've had myself and you having those thoughts (knowing you've played both town and scum before) makes it feel quite townie. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On November 28 2012 20:45 Kickstart wrote: Well I did post a rather large case on Yamato right before night ended and it has only gotten responses from Yamato himself (he basically just dismisses it, but that it to be expected since it is against him) and Jacob who thinks it brings up valid points. Anyone else have an opinion on it?: + Show Spoiler + On November 28 2012 07:35 Kickstart wrote: Right so as promised I did some digging into the Munk-E lynch because I felt there would be something there that would help us get some reads on people. After looking at it I have come to the conclusion that Yamato77 is SCUM Now before I get into making my own case I want to show what Munk-E had to say during Day 1 and particularly near lynch time, because at this point in time the only person who we know for 100% is town is Munk-E., so we automatically know that his posts were genuine and had town motivation. Now I will grant that just because Munk-E was town does not necessarily make his reads correct, but I think the fact that he is the only confirmed town at this point gives his reads some extra weight that we cannot yet give to anyone else. Munk-E's strongest read was on Yamato, here are his posts: + Show Spoiler + On November 27 2012 05:51 Munk-E wrote: Right now, I feel Yamato is our best bet. He seems to be against me, CC and kickstarter. I understand his reasoning behind being suspicious of me (despite my opinion of being suspicious of lurkers), however he never made an argument against CC, despite promising to. In fact, the only one I see who has made a real case against CC is SDM, and that case was based off of how he played in previous games. I feel basing a scum read on how he played before is really dumb, because he could easily change his style, and in that post he also said that he probably intentionally did that. This just creates a massive WIFOM situation, and thus to me, invalidates the point. This post was also posted in the middle of a minor Kickstarter bandwagon. And while he did make a small case against kickstarter, it was nothing really substantial, and somewhat contradictive. (Also as a side note, I saw that play as scummy, as I explained before.) This may be to distance himself from oats, who I feel still isn't in the clear, but his entire case on kickstarter was because he went after oats so aggressively, therefore, going and saying he might be scum is contradictory to his entire case. What I noticed most about his only posts that were more than a few lines were hardcore about defending his image. (above and below) Yes Yamato, yes you do Now I shouldn't need to tell you why I'm suspicious of someone who's only real content is making cases for why he's innocent. He also voted for me after both helo and SDM, but i'll let it slide because I was at the top of suscpicion list. Nonetheless, he seems most concerned about defending himself, and explaining his actions, and that certainly seems more scummy than anyone else so far to me, and while I wish I had longer to decide, he certainly looks the worst to me, so therefore ##Vote: yamato77 (p.s. before anyone says it, I didn't just make this post because he was voting for me, I understand that's just pressure.) and + Show Spoiler + On November 27 2012 11:26 Munk-E wrote: Alright,i hate having to defend myself, but i guess it's necessary so you don't waste a vote. No one has made a real case against me. The only real argument against me that everyone claims is that I'm lurking, and that i voted to save myself. As for the lurking, the point of accusing lurkers is to get them to talk. In theory, the more they say the easier they are to read, of they're mafia, they might say too much and give a tell. This point is null though, because it brings suspicion to lurkers. Besides, you got what you want from me, I'm talking more. As for the voting solely to save myself, it's not true. Yamato still is the scummiest player here, doing minimal scum hunting and over reacting every time someone accuses him of something. Someone accused me of being sheepish, because i said i wasn't 100% sure. I guess that was a wrong thing to say, even though that's how the game works. You never are positive about a role unless you are detective, which wouldn't work because it's day one, or mafia. You just go with your best guess. The point is there isn't a case against me, just a band wagon. Honestly, there are so many of you that voted for me with no or minimal justification, especially those who only recently jumped on the bandwagon. Now to sum up Munk-E's points against Yamato (but you should still read the posts I quoted because I think Munk-E actually did a good job in making his case, and again knowing that Munk-E was town makes his rather well thought out case against Yamato even more compelling) he accuses Yamato of content less posting, not making any scum reads himself while getting on others for doing the same thing, and of only defending himself. All of these charges are true and they hold up all through Yamato's filter. Now I cant copy and paste his entire filter but I encourage you to go look at it and you will see that Yamato has the largest filter of anyone in the game (about 5 pages), but it entirely composed of, one liners, summation posts (just a summary of events thus far), defense of himself, and bad/easy cases (his only real cases have been against cheese, both times they are bad and use points that have already been made by someone else). Now that is a huge pattern of posting - he has had more posts than anyone else and with the longest filter he has managed to offer nearly nothing in the way of looking for scum. Now all this so far is bad for Yamato and on its own would make a good case against him and is good enough reason to vote for him because it is all very scummy. But looking at the Munk-E lynch I found something even more damning. I looked at the progression of votes that went onto Munk-E and tried to see which ones were suspicious. The first vote on Munk-E is from HeloKnight and the second is from SDM. Now Helo is the first to make a move on Munk-E and does it because Munk-E is lurking and the only post Munk-E did make was a sheep onto Oats - both valid points at the time. Now SDMs vote onto Munk-E is for lurking aswell, but at least SDM is hesitant with the vote, but still gives solid reasons for it other than the ones Helo gave and doesn't seem to be jumping onto a Munk-E wagon. Then Yamato throws his vote on Munk-E with this post: This is suspicious for a few reasons. First he tries to hedge himself by saying that this isn't his final choice, he is just making it and will change it because he doesn't like lynching lurkers. Well the vote never changes - Yamato says he doesn't like lynching lurkers (which is his only charge against Munk-E in this post) but in the same post says Munk-E is the best candidate (when his only beef is his lurking) and again he just leaves the vote on the lurker. This is someone trying to jump on a wagon without drawing attention to themselves if I've ever seen it. He says "oh this really isn't a great vote and I will change it" but makes the vote anyways and never changes it. It is even worse given that he says he has two other scumreads, because if his only problem with Munk-E was his lurking then why would he jump onto that easy wagon instead of trying to push his actual reads? Here is another post from Yamato when he was under a bit of pressure: Again we have the typical accusing others of tunneling and sheeping and all that while not providing much himself, but the interesting thing here is the last paragraph because it just reaffirms what I have been saying. Yamato only brings up two points against Munk-E here, one is that he is lurking and the other is that Munk-E's two posts are content-less cheeping onto players. Well the first is just his excuse for leaving his vote on Munk-E, everyone was already saying Munk-E was lurking so this is just a safe statement - nothing new here. But the second statement is a blatant lie. Look at Munk-E's post on Yamato that I spoilered above and ask yourself if that is a content-less sheeping post. I don't think it is, it is a well reasoned post and all his criticisms of Yamato are valid even up until now, and we know now that Munk-E was town and this leads me to believe that he was being genuine - this was not a sheep. So there is my case on Yamato. I do need to go to class now but I wanted to post this case before night actions because I won't be back until afterwards and wanted to contribute incase I get NKd. So right now Yamato has been promoted to my top scum read followed by Oats. I like the case quite a bit. I won't have time to comment on it in detail because I need to go soon, but it looks like solid scum hunting. It's weird calling out Munk-E for blatant sheeping when in fact he was making quite long case. I will say that to some expect it's expected that the two wagons will go after eachother regardless of alignment though. I'm starting to feel I let Yamato off the hook a bit too easy during N1. Much like CC I was reacting like "oh look at this poor guy" when he started defended himself. It came off as quite genuine to me. That made me drop all the reasons I had suspected him to begin with. That doesn't make much sense. Also, one reason I've started reevaluate the situation was my realization that Oats is scummy as hell. I know this is an association and I don't really like thinking in those terms generally, but his just clicked for me: On November 28 2012 09:27 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: The only reasonable reason I can see for Oats' spazztastic change of mind wrt CC is if Oats is scum and Yamato is his scum buddy. When the momentum of the Yamato wagon is gathering, Oats pops in with this post, declaring "I've seen the light! Munk-E and Kick are scum!". Without any reasoning of course. Go check that section out for yourself. Oats put his vote on Kick at the same time CC set his scum trap for Yamato. What's even more weird is that at the point Oats votes for Kick, CC had just voted for Kick. Not only does Oats abandon his scum read CC, he immediate sheeps him. Meh, now I'm really done for the day. Will have to read Yamatos filter in its entirety, but that'll have to wait for a few hours. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On November 28 2012 22:58 Oatsmaster wrote: Why not? You implied that yamato is my scum partner, but fail to mention that aqua or helo could also be my partner based on your criteria of mafia partners.. Interaction is not a one-way street though. While you might've not tried to interact with Helo, Helo has been asking you question. Yamato hasn't addressed you one single time, which is kind of weird given that your behaviour has kind of been a focal point of attention and Yamato has been pretty active. His opinion on Oats has been "probably just a bored townie", "null leaning scum" (wat?) and "erratic". Overall he's been very wishy-washy on his read while not probing for more info. You guys tell me I'm crazy if I am, but I'm starting to feel Oats and Yamato. Oats I feel pretty good about lynching atm since he has still not given adequate responses to any of the questions. Yamato I still need to look more into. ##vote: Oats | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
This leaves Oats, Yamato and Helo. It's probably quite clear Oats would be my top lynch candidate right now. Helo is in here because I haven't interacted much with him and need to get a better read on him, so far I've had no real reason to suspect him. If everyone does something similar and look into their top reads I hope we'll reach a consensus on potential D2 lynches well in advance of EOD so we won't have another shit storm. It also gives people a chance to respond to accusations. Had Munk-E had been able to defend himself earlier yesterday we probably wouldn't have had a mislynch D1 (or maybe we would've mislynched someone else :p) | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On November 29 2012 00:56 Oatsmaster wrote: Am I reading this correctly? You are voting me because ANOTHER player doesnt want to talk about me? Please read that again. Also, I answered all the questions I am aware of.. No, that's just a part of my association case and not the focus on why I find you scummy. If that numbered list of yours was intended as your full response to CCs case I will come back with more questions for you later. If you're town, make sure to put to put together a coherrent defense and don't just have the parts scattered all over the thread. Then start scum hunting. If Helo is your top scum read, take your time and make a case. | ||
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