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Newbie Mini Mafia XXXI - Page 13

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
December 01 2012 03:00 GMT
#1303
I didn't post this an hour early did I... it became kinda rushed :/
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
December 01 2012 03:05 GMT
#1305
Is it day? Otherwise I'd like to comment on CCs post :/
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
December 01 2012 03:13 GMT
#1310
Always blame iamp.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
December 01 2012 03:15 GMT
#1313
It's fucking 4am over here, do I die or what? :p
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
December 01 2012 03:29 GMT
#1320
***dead***

Sorry for completely sucking D2, but you guys suck too <3

Gl town!

***/dead***
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
December 02 2012 13:37 GMT
#1632
On December 02 2012 21:35 Dandel Ion wrote:
SDM, solid game, improve your reads a little bit, but you're doing a good job of looking really townie. Somehow, everybody else being scummy (or considered scummy) helped you (=town) this game, because you ended up as the clear NK, so an easy Medic save to hit.


Now this is an understatement.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
December 02 2012 13:53 GMT
#1634
On December 02 2012 14:01 debears wrote:
SDM - I'm pretty sure you talked to Marv for coaching. I'd say he has better input than me. One thing I'd say is that you overthink things once in a while. However, you had a solid game, hence the n1 nk.
[/u]

Most certainly true. I need to be more focused. Make up my damn mind about things and not keep harping about everything over and over again.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
December 02 2012 14:06 GMT
#1636
WTF did we actually win this game?
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
December 02 2012 14:13 GMT
#1640
On December 02 2012 23:08 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 23:06 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
WTF did we actually win this game?


LOL DIDN'T YOU REALISE?


Slow pony just realized.

This puts my record 1-4 life time. If I wasn't so fucking hung over I would celebrate. Actually I got some cheesecake in the fridge, imma eat some cheesecake.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
December 02 2012 14:14 GMT
#1642
Internet high five everyone!

[image loading]
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
December 02 2012 14:25 GMT
#1644
On December 02 2012 13:47 Aquanim wrote:
I really need to have more time to play (particularly in the US daytime) I think, not being able to push my questions and cases in person was pretty frusturating (and if I've understood your case right, is what got me lynched in the end). Unfortunately I won't have any more time until Feburary so I don't think I'll be playing again for a while. No hard feelings - I'll obs some games, and hopefully be playing again in a couple of months.


I think you played well. I think a lot of the things you said were really townie. The lynch of you was really arbitrary and mostly because Jacob, CC and I thought Oats was doc. I don't know how I ended up talking myself out of my town lean on you, but it was fucking 4am and my brain wasn't working.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
December 03 2012 13:18 GMT
#1665
On December 03 2012 18:31 yamato77 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 23:25 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On December 02 2012 13:47 Aquanim wrote:
I really need to have more time to play (particularly in the US daytime) I think, not being able to push my questions and cases in person was pretty frusturating (and if I've understood your case right, is what got me lynched in the end). Unfortunately I won't have any more time until Feburary so I don't think I'll be playing again for a while. No hard feelings - I'll obs some games, and hopefully be playing again in a couple of months.


I think you played well. I think a lot of the things you said were really townie. The lynch of you was really arbitrary and mostly because Jacob, CC and I thought Oats was doc. I don't know how I ended up talking myself out of my town lean on you, but it was fucking 4am and my brain wasn't working.

I'll admit, that sequence of events really threw me for a loop. First Oats claims doc, no one wants to believe him, then CC entered the thread and everyone went full regard and lynched Aqua. I was CERTAIN that scum was behind it so the post I made N2 really reflects how mad I was that we lynched Aqua instead of Oats or even no lynch. I still think it should have been a no lynch looking back. I probably would have switched my vote to that at the time.

Lesson learned. Sometimes last minute wagons are comprised solely of insane town members trying to save the scummy looking player who claims doc. Sometimes.


lol xD
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
December 03 2012 14:01 GMT
#1666
On December 03 2012 21:22 Promethelax wrote:
SDM: you did a good job proving yourself townie and trying to figure out how things had come together but you managed to over think things a little too much. Remember if there are only two scum catching one is always worth the 1 for 1 trade, no matter if the townie is blue or green. You also had some mind numbingly crazy posts about how Kickstart's d1 wasn't scummy, whatever lead you to that conclusion early on you need to re think. When I talk to him you may see some things which should have convinced you of his scumminess moments after the game started. Of all the townies in this game you played the best; you need to remember that Ockham's razor is your friend though and that the un-counter-claimed doctor claim is probably doctor.


Yeah, you're definitely correct I couldn't make up my damn mind. You asked me in obs qt what I thought went wrong but at the time I didn't know, but I think...

1) I didn't organize my thoughts, like at all. I threw out random suspicions, sometimes even before thinking about whether they had scum motivation. I think I have to take some notes otherwise I just won't be able to form any overall opinions at all.
2) I put way too little weight into town reads. I pointed out several times things I thought made CC, Jacob and Aqua townie, but then completely didn't care abuot them. Had I just kept some notes with town/scum signs for every player I would've quickly found Jacob's and CCs columns flood with town signs (in contrast to Kicks).
3) Even though I told myself before the game started that the most scummy behaviour ever is to try not to be noticed I never suspected Helo, even though he who made posts so bland I didn't even remember reading them.

When it comes to the claim, I would've snapcalled a 1 for 1 trade. My problem was since I didn't realize a JK + doc was an unlikely setup, I didn't think there was a way to guarantee a 1 for 1 trade. We might've had a legit JK claim, we lynch our doc Oats and lose our JK to a NK. Marv told me that a JK counterclaim is good because it gives us more information, but that assumes that the info we obtain can be used to alter the lynch. I think for you guys in the obs qt it was an easy decision to counterclaim because you knew what combination of blue roles are likely (ie JK + doc being very unlikely).

When we later started considering an Aqua lynching I realized CC, Jacob and Helo couldn't be doc or JK, so at least everyone around at that time implicitly claimed VT and I felt more comfortable switching target (but not loving the switch being to Aqua).
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-03 14:09:23
December 03 2012 14:08 GMT
#1667
On December 03 2012 22:03 marvellosity wrote:
The timing on the doc claim was quite optimal due to the fact Oats had to go to bed and school and shit.

Well done to Jacob for appreciating the timing of the claim (no other townie managed this, even though Jacob stressed it repeatedly)

This is what I had to say in PM to SDM after the Oats lynch. yamato, take note (you were bizarrely against Oats even when it was confirmed for no reason - you should think about why carefully):

Show nested quote +
Original Message From marvellosity:
not asking for counterclaims was retarded.

You took town down the wrong path, and "game theoried" it too much.

After Day 1, scum need 2 more mislynches for the victory, and you have a doctor claim. Effectively you're betting 50% of scum's mislynches, or 50% of the scumteam, on being correct about Oats.

Outing every single power role that might exist (I do not know what exists) is worth reducing/confirming this risk. If a doctor counterclaims, then great, you have a confirmed scum between the two.

Otherwise I would find the existence of two protective roles - i.e. jailkeeper and doctor, in a 9 player game, to be pretty unlikely (although not impossible). So, see if a JK claims too. If a JK doesn't... great! Again you've confirmed the doctor claim. If a JK does, then you have a tonne more info to assess the doctor claim. Do the claims/saves (from both) make sense?

Blue roles are a BONUS to town, yet you and the rest of town saw that protecting their possible existence was more important than either catching half the scumteam or preventing half the mislynches necessary. It was a really poor risk.

Now you're in a MYLO situation (or lylo, whatever not gonna count) so what happens in this situation if scum make a claim or a counterclaim on a blue role? Now you no longer have the luxury of lynching both, you have to get it right first time. Yesterday you didn't, and it's gone.

Anyway, stop with the association bullcrap. I mentioned before i'd associated the 2nd scum from the first - that's because I worked out the first, and "flipped" him by asking the host if I was right. Associating pre-flip is dangerously misleading.

Oats' play has been terribly bad from a town POV. Is that not true from a scum POV too?

Also, try looking for town-tells in people. Below I see a few times where you said "i don't see anything scummy" or similar. Have these people given you reasons to consider them town also?

With yamato, why not ask him about that apparent contradiction?


Edit: that reminds me. Prome covered the main reasons Kick was catchable Day 1. So reading through Day 1 I picked out Helo, because he did not mention Kickstart *at all*. This totally fits the newbie scum profile whose partner is under pressure, has absolutely no idea how to deal with it, and so ignores him completely.

The 'association' here was in fact the complete lack of association.

Further edit: by the way, Oats contradicted himself like 1000x this game. scumread/townread/scumread and what have you. Scum are normally more careful. Their contradictions are subtle, accidental, subconscious. Look here:

Show nested quote +
On November 25 2012 13:51 yamato77 wrote:
If we sheep oats and lynch cheesecake, and he flips town, at least our day 2 lynch is an easy decision.


Musing with Hapa on irc, I told him this gave me a soft townread on yamato. On the face of it, it's horrendous - setting up mislynches! But it's so goddamn blatant. Scum avoid saying shit like this.

Kickstart's scum mentality of killing Oats whether he was scum OR bad town was better hidden inside a long case. In fact only Aquanim picked up on it. That's the kinda difference to look for in bad/new town and scum.


Hmm yeah, I had a town read on Oats for D1 because of those reason, but changed my mind after I got a PM from you. It was not that you mentioned an association case, but that you said that you (unlike me) had experience distinguishing bad town from scum made you find the first scum. I had given Oats a town read all game and to me he was the obvious bad town. So I levelled myself into think you had to have been talking about Oats, and from there I convinced myself he was scum. Fucking horrible, yeah I know, guess why I never contacted you :p
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
December 03 2012 14:26 GMT
#1671
Kickstart: you took the lead role for scum early but decided not to do anything with it. If any of this town had bothered to read mario mini (which no one should ever read it is longer than most of my text books) they would have had you pinned in about thirty seconds. Lucky for you no one did. You also played it safe and went for the townie making the most mistakes (Oats) unfortunately for you you attacked him as bad town or scum and said he needed to die either way. This is not a town mindset at all and should have triggered alarm bells in all of town. Your list post featured Oats as 'slightly scummy' you had tunneled him all day and he had not done anything to change your read a townie would see him as 'scummy scum scum, the scummiest thing since sliced red' not slightly scummy. You needed to make your reads and stick to them. Scum often want to sit back and allow town to make cases for them, you needed to make your cases stronger and to push them instead of being wishy washy. Your reaction to the Oats claim was a scum claim. When someone claims blue town does not automatically believe that as that person might be scum fake claiming; only scum believes them 100% because they know that player is not scum. After having made that mistake you should have stuck to it though, hard defending Oats would have given you a lot of town cred. Or going right for him and getting him lynched. You and Helo chose the easy way out and it lost you the game.


Oh man, Kicks' D1 is the one I spent most time reading :/

Here's what I thought was happening: Kicks attacked Oats, I told him Oats actions weren't scummy because he painted a target on his own back and that lead Kicks to chill down a bit on the scum accusations. I'm not even sure that makes chronological sense. Was Mario the game where Shady got lynched early because of spazztastic play? I didn't follow that game, did scum push his lynch?

Oh and thanks for your analysis <3
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
December 03 2012 14:28 GMT
#1673
On December 03 2012 23:15 marvellosity wrote:
I'm not here to WIFOM you sweetheart


You don't even have to try tho :/
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
December 03 2012 14:29 GMT
#1674
On December 03 2012 23:27 marvellosity wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 03 2012 23:26 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Kickstart: you took the lead role for scum early but decided not to do anything with it. If any of this town had bothered to read mario mini (which no one should ever read it is longer than most of my text books) they would have had you pinned in about thirty seconds. Lucky for you no one did. You also played it safe and went for the townie making the most mistakes (Oats) unfortunately for you you attacked him as bad town or scum and said he needed to die either way. This is not a town mindset at all and should have triggered alarm bells in all of town. Your list post featured Oats as 'slightly scummy' you had tunneled him all day and he had not done anything to change your read a townie would see him as 'scummy scum scum, the scummiest thing since sliced red' not slightly scummy. You needed to make your reads and stick to them. Scum often want to sit back and allow town to make cases for them, you needed to make your cases stronger and to push them instead of being wishy washy. Your reaction to the Oats claim was a scum claim. When someone claims blue town does not automatically believe that as that person might be scum fake claiming; only scum believes them 100% because they know that player is not scum. After having made that mistake you should have stuck to it though, hard defending Oats would have given you a lot of town cred. Or going right for him and getting him lynched. You and Helo chose the easy way out and it lost you the game.


Oh man, Kicks' D1 is the one I spent most time reading :/

Here's what I thought was happening: Kicks attacked Oats, I told him Oats actions weren't scummy because he painted a target on his own back and that lead Kicks to chill down a bit on the scum accusations. I'm not even sure that makes chronological sense. Was Mario the game where Shady got lynched early because of spazztastic play? I didn't follow that game, did scum push his lynch?

Oh and thanks for your analysis <3


huh? no, Shady wasn't playing in Mario.


Ok, was probably thinking about Liquid City... or something.
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