EPTWhy I think that S&B is town
My first reason is that I think that the last scum is Darthpunk. I realized that it was likely to be the case thanks to this post from Clarity + Show Spoiler +
On November 20 2012 22:58 Clarity_nl wrote:
Darth, this isn't snb's meta for town either. All his contributions are very timed with when he's in the spotlight.
All that leaves is your gut.
Scummy about your current behavior is sudden emotional involvement in the game, where you showed none before, you have a scum read on me and djo. I'm town and I have a townread on djo. The fact that you think snb is town.
This is all a smart way to go about things as scum. As snb will likely be lynched tomorrow if not today, so it behooves scum to keep him alive if possible.
Hopeless is confirmed, bh is confirmed, iamp is town, kickstart is town, djo is neutral, you are neutral
You look scummier than djo, currently, because your reads have been the polar opposite of mine all game.
Like I said, I'm focusing on getting snb lynched today and I will do my research in the nightcycle. So that's all I got.
Darth, this isn't snb's meta for town either. All his contributions are very timed with when he's in the spotlight.
All that leaves is your gut.
Scummy about your current behavior is sudden emotional involvement in the game, where you showed none before, you have a scum read on me and djo. I'm town and I have a townread on djo. The fact that you think snb is town.
This is all a smart way to go about things as scum. As snb will likely be lynched tomorrow if not today, so it behooves scum to keep him alive if possible.
Hopeless is confirmed, bh is confirmed, iamp is town, kickstart is town, djo is neutral, you are neutral
You look scummier than djo, currently, because your reads have been the polar opposite of mine all game.
Like I said, I'm focusing on getting snb lynched today and I will do my research in the nightcycle. So that's all I got.
S&B is starting to get wary of BH during D1, and his reasons stand correct in my opinion, he then proceeds to tunnel BH and uses the setup extrapolation to confound him definitively. These things, I did them as town, and I believe that he did them as town as well.
I've realized that he gave himself what was really incriminating in his posts during D1 by himself in this post. I don't see a mafia player playing like S&B during D1... you should start to get lazy and trolly later if you start to fall apart. But you don't do that from the fucking beginning. What is really suspicious is his reference to Hapa as the "scummiest player" without pursuing him. His few interactions with him don't look good as well. But he preemptively posts a defense against this in this gigantic post here + Show Spoiler +
On November 17 2012 06:36 strongandbig wrote:
this post took me like more than half an hour to write so yall best actually read it.
I go through my filter and look at stuff.
this post makes me look bad. this would be a good argument for me being scum. scum love to vote for their buddies early.
In reality, I just thought iamperfection's argument seemed kinda good about the weirdness of Hapahauli's first vote/minicase/whatever-thing.
Ahhh, the infamous "accidental claim" post.
Seriously if you guys think this was a good idea for a scum player to post, you are not very good scum players.
I'm not a very good scum player either, but I'm better than that.
The post itself contains the entirety of my motivation. There was one time when I fakeclaimed miller as scum (actually I was traitor, but I showed up as scum to detectives), and ever since then I've been looking for an opportunity to fakeclaim miller as town. I want to be able to claim miller more often as scum, but since the odds are so small of any single player ever actually being a miller, I would first have to establish a background of claiming miller as both alignments. I've actually thought a lot about this, there are some good arguments in favor of fakeclaiming miller as town if you have a lot of time to spend on a game and you think you can make your towniness clear through your actions. It would give town a focus of discussion early on day 1 when they're often aimless, and it would remove you from the list of people that DTs need to think about checking, making their lives easier.
The reason I post all those thoughts is to give you some idea where I was coming from. I've thought a lot about the "miller" part, so when I saw zboson claim miller, it triggered me to think along those lines again. The "VT" part really didn't come into it at all. I had no idea at first what debears was talking about when he said I'd claimed something.
One other thing I did a lot day 1 was to point out what I thought were bad arguments. I like doing this as town for a couple of reasons - mostly that it's fun, but I also think that criticizing bad arguments and trying to get them pushed out of the town discourse is helpful. It avoids people starting to build cases and reads on bad foundations, and it stops people from building up a "position" that they can refer back to later unless they have something that's actually worth saying.
Here's one example.
Here's another example.
There's another one.
And again. This one I had to do twice. There's a reason why it's important to tell people when their arguments are bad. As well as fun.
This one was sort of an extreme example, because I actually explained why the argument was stupid and bad. It takes a lot of the fun out if I have to explain it.
Next thing to explain: the whole Kenpachi rule thing.
So I'm gonna say this and I'm gonna say it just once. And I'll probably come back and edit it out after this game is over. Here's how the Kenpachi rule works:
Someone claiming VT for no apparent reason attracts scum like a porch light attracts moths. This is for a very good reason. It's exactly the kind of thing that scum players love to attack. Scum players make cases against scummy behavior. They try and find scummy behavior, not scum, and the random unnecessary VT claim is classic "scummy behavior". It doesn't make sense and doesn't help town in the least, but it also doesn't push any scum agenda. (Scum players, especially new ones, often don't like to attack things that actually do help the scum team push their agenda, either because they want to let it keep getting pushed or because they're afraid of being called out for doing similar things themselves).
That's one of the key things about the random VT claim - it doesn't actually hurt town in any way. If you think about it, it really doesn't reveal anything about the alignment of the player who makes the claim, since it's almost always optimal play for anyone in any position to claim VT. Actual VTs don't want to get killed by town for fakeclaiming if they claim blue and get found out; blues want to avoid getting roleblocked; and scum don't want to have to back up a blue claim with actions later on in the game. So you learn nothing from the VT claim. It doesn't distract town from actual scumhunting, because there's really very little to be said about it.
But it's such a tempting target for scum! It's easy to attack because it's both illogical and unusual. Plus the people doing it are often easy targets, because they will often do other things that don't make sense.
So you ask, why wouldn't that be a tempting target for town as well? You have to think about the different motivations between scum and townies. Townies don't just want to point out when someone does something scummy, they want to actually advance their reads, discuss things in a way which creates a productive town atmosphere, etcetera. But scum have the additional motivation of wanting things that they can safely attack or take strong positions on. They get tricked into attacking the random VT claim because it seems like a safe thing for them to attack - there's little chance of the position coming back to bite them later on, because neither they nor their teammates are likely to randomly claim VT, and because "random VT claims are scummy" is a position that is not likely to interact much with the other positions scum has to take throughout the game.
So, there's a much stronger motivation for scum to attack a random VT claim than there is for town to do so. Therefore, people who attack a random VT claim are more likely to be scum than an average player. That's the essence of the Kenpachi rule.
The way Marv cited it - the first person to attack the random VT claim is always scum - it's obviously stupid. No rule like that holds true in every case, and there's no reason why the first person or the second person or whatever to do something is more likely to be scum. However, when I kept talking about the Kenpachi rule, I was assuming that Marv understood the reasoning behind it and the proper application of it. Maybe he didn't, and he actually thought it was just some kind of mystical guessing rule. But that's what was going on with me when I kept saying "kenpachi rule" to Marv. Basically, I was hoping he would do my work for my and actually either explain why the Kenpachi rule is a real method, or else use the leads it generated to create actual cases.
here's another post that makes me look bad for a real reason. Randomly throwing suspicion on hapa without providing any reasons. Looks like I'm setting myself up for good distancing in case he flips before me, but doesn't actually create any danger for him.
The actual reasoning that led me to write that line was pretty simple. Hapa's posting just wasn't very good. There was the early thing iamperfection caught, and the stupid post of Hapa's attacking me for "not sharing any information about my reads" or whatever (it's above in the section where I call things stupid). And in general, I expect Hapa to be pretty aggressive and frequently wrong, but to do so in a headstrong and confident way with fewer obvious logical flaws. However, I kind of let up on him later when he started emulating his town posting better, like the following post:
One last thing:
this is where I explain why hapahauli's case was bad. it was the same case, it was still bad.
this post took me like more than half an hour to write so yall best actually read it.
I go through my filter and look at stuff.
this post makes me look bad. this would be a good argument for me being scum. scum love to vote for their buddies early.
In reality, I just thought iamperfection's argument seemed kinda good about the weirdness of Hapahauli's first vote/minicase/whatever-thing.
Ahhh, the infamous "accidental claim" post.
Seriously if you guys think this was a good idea for a scum player to post, you are not very good scum players.
I'm not a very good scum player either, but I'm better than that.
The post itself contains the entirety of my motivation. There was one time when I fakeclaimed miller as scum (actually I was traitor, but I showed up as scum to detectives), and ever since then I've been looking for an opportunity to fakeclaim miller as town. I want to be able to claim miller more often as scum, but since the odds are so small of any single player ever actually being a miller, I would first have to establish a background of claiming miller as both alignments. I've actually thought a lot about this, there are some good arguments in favor of fakeclaiming miller as town if you have a lot of time to spend on a game and you think you can make your towniness clear through your actions. It would give town a focus of discussion early on day 1 when they're often aimless, and it would remove you from the list of people that DTs need to think about checking, making their lives easier.
The reason I post all those thoughts is to give you some idea where I was coming from. I've thought a lot about the "miller" part, so when I saw zboson claim miller, it triggered me to think along those lines again. The "VT" part really didn't come into it at all. I had no idea at first what debears was talking about when he said I'd claimed something.
One other thing I did a lot day 1 was to point out what I thought were bad arguments. I like doing this as town for a couple of reasons - mostly that it's fun, but I also think that criticizing bad arguments and trying to get them pushed out of the town discourse is helpful. It avoids people starting to build cases and reads on bad foundations, and it stops people from building up a "position" that they can refer back to later unless they have something that's actually worth saying.
Here's one example.
Here's another example.
There's another one.
And again. This one I had to do twice. There's a reason why it's important to tell people when their arguments are bad. As well as fun.
This one was sort of an extreme example, because I actually explained why the argument was stupid and bad. It takes a lot of the fun out if I have to explain it.
Next thing to explain: the whole Kenpachi rule thing.
So I'm gonna say this and I'm gonna say it just once. And I'll probably come back and edit it out after this game is over. Here's how the Kenpachi rule works:
Someone claiming VT for no apparent reason attracts scum like a porch light attracts moths. This is for a very good reason. It's exactly the kind of thing that scum players love to attack. Scum players make cases against scummy behavior. They try and find scummy behavior, not scum, and the random unnecessary VT claim is classic "scummy behavior". It doesn't make sense and doesn't help town in the least, but it also doesn't push any scum agenda. (Scum players, especially new ones, often don't like to attack things that actually do help the scum team push their agenda, either because they want to let it keep getting pushed or because they're afraid of being called out for doing similar things themselves).
That's one of the key things about the random VT claim - it doesn't actually hurt town in any way. If you think about it, it really doesn't reveal anything about the alignment of the player who makes the claim, since it's almost always optimal play for anyone in any position to claim VT. Actual VTs don't want to get killed by town for fakeclaiming if they claim blue and get found out; blues want to avoid getting roleblocked; and scum don't want to have to back up a blue claim with actions later on in the game. So you learn nothing from the VT claim. It doesn't distract town from actual scumhunting, because there's really very little to be said about it.
But it's such a tempting target for scum! It's easy to attack because it's both illogical and unusual. Plus the people doing it are often easy targets, because they will often do other things that don't make sense.
So you ask, why wouldn't that be a tempting target for town as well? You have to think about the different motivations between scum and townies. Townies don't just want to point out when someone does something scummy, they want to actually advance their reads, discuss things in a way which creates a productive town atmosphere, etcetera. But scum have the additional motivation of wanting things that they can safely attack or take strong positions on. They get tricked into attacking the random VT claim because it seems like a safe thing for them to attack - there's little chance of the position coming back to bite them later on, because neither they nor their teammates are likely to randomly claim VT, and because "random VT claims are scummy" is a position that is not likely to interact much with the other positions scum has to take throughout the game.
So, there's a much stronger motivation for scum to attack a random VT claim than there is for town to do so. Therefore, people who attack a random VT claim are more likely to be scum than an average player. That's the essence of the Kenpachi rule.
The way Marv cited it - the first person to attack the random VT claim is always scum - it's obviously stupid. No rule like that holds true in every case, and there's no reason why the first person or the second person or whatever to do something is more likely to be scum. However, when I kept talking about the Kenpachi rule, I was assuming that Marv understood the reasoning behind it and the proper application of it. Maybe he didn't, and he actually thought it was just some kind of mystical guessing rule. But that's what was going on with me when I kept saying "kenpachi rule" to Marv. Basically, I was hoping he would do my work for my and actually either explain why the Kenpachi rule is a real method, or else use the leads it generated to create actual cases.
here's another post that makes me look bad for a real reason. Randomly throwing suspicion on hapa without providing any reasons. Looks like I'm setting myself up for good distancing in case he flips before me, but doesn't actually create any danger for him.
The actual reasoning that led me to write that line was pretty simple. Hapa's posting just wasn't very good. There was the early thing iamperfection caught, and the stupid post of Hapa's attacking me for "not sharing any information about my reads" or whatever (it's above in the section where I call things stupid). And in general, I expect Hapa to be pretty aggressive and frequently wrong, but to do so in a headstrong and confident way with fewer obvious logical flaws. However, I kind of let up on him later when he started emulating his town posting better, like the following post:
One last thing:
this is where I explain why hapahauli's case was bad. it was the same case, it was still bad.
One other thing is that he doesn't lynch Z-Bo to save himself. If he didn't care that much as scum, he would have conceded on ages imho.
I liked his setup extrapolation but I didn't like how he stayed with his vote parked on BH when it was clear that the setup was MDVCCTT after the death of debears. But that was just personal
Regarding Clarity lynch, I need to look at it again. I didn't like his case so much at the time.
