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On November 21 2012 19:41 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 19:39 Djodref wrote:On November 21 2012 19:35 Blazinghand wrote:On November 21 2012 19:27 DarthPunk wrote:
Ok, seeing as no one is talking all that much I am out. Hopefully we can get a load of info in the thread an hour before deadline. why not now? scum's shoot me anyways Yeah, I think you are right, given Hopeless level of participation, you are more likely to be NKed tonight. He says as he sends in his night action.
Could you get off my back for a minute ? This is pissing me off and I would like to stay rational right now...
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On November 21 2012 19:50 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 19:41 DarthPunk wrote:On November 21 2012 19:39 Djodref wrote:On November 21 2012 19:35 Blazinghand wrote:On November 21 2012 19:27 DarthPunk wrote:
Ok, seeing as no one is talking all that much I am out. Hopefully we can get a load of info in the thread an hour before deadline. why not now? scum's shoot me anyways Yeah, I think you are right, given Hopeless level of participation, you are more likely to be NKed tonight. He says as he sends in his night action. Could you get off my back for a minute ? This is pissing me off and I would like to stay rational right now...
you tunnel others then cry when you get tunnelled? watever, ill lay off til tomorrow.
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
yeah dp you tell him to stop being a baby
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
that's a joke btw. you guys are the best
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+ Show Spoiler +On November 17 2012 06:36 strongandbig wrote:this post took me like more than half an hour to write so yall best actually read it.I go through my filter and look at stuff. On November 13 2012 10:01 strongandbig wrote:
if zb was scum he would have made a much longer post
##vote: hapahauli
im down with that iamperfection thinkamajig this post makes me look bad. this would be a good argument for me being scum. scum love to vote for their buddies early. In reality, I just thought iamperfection's argument seemed kinda good about the weirdness of Hapahauli's first vote/minicase/whatever-thing.
<big snip>
On November 13 2012 21:57 strongandbig wrote:
yo marv you're gonna have to edit out that post about the kenpachi rule
debears is scum tho
in other developments: seriously, I wasn't really thinking too hard about what I posted last night. Believe me or not, I didn't intend to "claim VT" when I made the post in question.
I'm going in to work in a couple hours, I'll read over the thread more carefully. However, here's my unfiltered thoughts atm
marv: i hate trying to read marv, apparently someone caught him on meta analysis a game or two ago so I'll have to look that up but it's so much easier just radfielding him
bh: thinks i'm town therefore my first reaction is to think he's town lol. i like his case on zboson though.
hapa: scummiest of the actual good players in the thread atm
more reading time here's another post that makes me look bad for a real reason. Randomly throwing suspicion on hapa without providing any reasons. Looks like I'm setting myself up for good distancing in case he flips before me, but doesn't actually create any danger for him. The actual reasoning that led me to write that line was pretty simple. Hapa's posting just wasn't very good. There was the early thing iamperfection caught, and the stupid post of Hapa's attacking me for "not sharing any information about my reads" or whatever (it's above in the section where I call things stupid). And in general, I expect Hapa to be pretty aggressive and frequently wrong, but to do so in a headstrong and confident way with fewer obvious logical flaws. However, I kind of let up on him later when he started emulating his town posting better, like the following post: On November 14 2012 03:56 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 02:31 Hapahauli wrote:Catching up on my lunch break.
Regarding SnB##UnvoteAfter sleeping on it, I'm starting to agree that his play is too far of a deviation from his normal scum play to be scummy. I don't know what he's thinking, but it's much more reckless of a playstyle than I'd expect of scum SnB. (FWIW, the fact that he's continuing this behavior into today makes me think he's an SK or something. It falls into that "townie but really off" type of play that's common with 3rd party roles.)
On November 13 2012 17:42 Clarity_nl wrote:Hapa, this still bothers me. I asked you what you thought about SnB's claim and if you thought it was bad for town, and you answered: On November 13 2012 10:12 Hapahauli wrote:
@ Clarity
Well in a theoretical sense yes, but you remember how well that worked with Cheesecake in Newbie XXX right? It's really not that significant IMO. You compared this to Cheese's claim from NMM XXX even though the situations are completely different. The only reason Cheese claimed was because he thought only VT's knew the VT flavor. So he was trying to claim without alerting scum. SnB just outright claimed VT. After I explain why it's different, you basically give me the same answer: On November 13 2012 10:25 Hapahauli wrote:On November 13 2012 10:14 Clarity_nl wrote:
It's not like he flavor claimed, thinking others didn't know the flavor. How are those situations alike?
You don't think it's a weird move for a VT to claim VT day 1? No I don't find it weird. I think it's just a pointless comment that can be made by either alignment. Again, see Mr. Cheesecake's "odd" VT claim time in the Newbie game. Him trusting Z-Bo's claim so up-front is a bit strange, but again, I don't know if it's just bad logic or scum knowing who's who. I haven't seen anything alignment indicative from him yet. The other thing I don't really like is the use of "theoretically yes" and "IMO" Whenever I've seen you post you tend to be direct and with conviction, but not this time. I still believe both situations to be the same - they are both strangely timed VT claims. Cheese's intent to "signal" other townies isn't a significant difference, as both potentially fall into the category of "scum wanting to look less suspicious despite not being suspicious." The situations are not identical by any means, but they're more similar than not. Regardless, I'm not suspicious of SnB anymore so I don't want to dwell on this.
Regarding the Z-Boson CaseI really disagree with it. The case is a giant anecdote for how Z-Boson's actions could be scummy rather than why they're scummy. ZB is setting up to look good as a wagon starter (since scum don't like to stick their necks out) and appear to contribute to town, but if you read his astonishingly short filter, it's clear he's not actually helping. He's flinging shit at the wall and hoping it sticks. All of this isn't valid at all hours into D1. All of the stuff described above is completely non-alignment indicative in the early game. Z-Boson has been less active than I'm used to seeing him, but again early D1 caveats. No reason to vote him.
Regarding iamperfectionHis sudden flip-flop on Z-Boson is really strange. He goes from strongly trusting Z-Bo's claim early in the game to a vote for really shitty reasons. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381440¤tpage=22#434In his vote post, he first picks a fight with BH - odd considering that he's ultimately going to agree with his read. He puts a lot of stock into one of Z-Bo's early D1 postings and early-game banter (meaningless). He then talks about the "iamperfection rule" and another early D1 wishy-washy post. I wouldn't mind this if it weren't for his discussion about the miller claim: I know i said early on that i thought the miller claim was more of a town tell but well i think zbos actions speak louder. WHAT?!?!? Iamperfection had almost no doubt about Z-Bo's motives, and he's willing to do a complete 180 with the above reasoning. Just take a look at his previous stance, made right after Z-Bo's claim: On November 13 2012 09:45 iamperfection wrote:
i guess theirs no reason not to believe zbos right? has to be to risky to do if he was scum right. He immediately trusted Z-Boson without question the second Z-Bo made that claim. Then all of a sudden now he turns around and can doubt the claim he so strongly believed in earlier. It makes no sense to me, and it looks like scum jumping on someone the second they have the reason to. This would be fine if he had a good case, but he just hinges on a couple of early D1 posts and the "iamperfection" rule as opposed to anything substantial. It doesn't help that the rest of his filter reads really artificially confrontational to me. It feels like he's trying to overcompensate for being caught in GSL III for not showing his "bravado" throughout the game. ##Vote iamperfection this is much more like what i expect out of hapahauli, i guess it just took a little while for him to get into character. that said his case is pretty bad for reasons i explained above
One last thing: On November 14 2012 03:52 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 03:27 debears wrote:
.......
Ok reasoning to switch from insta town read to scum read....
When I get back to my comp I will relook at it. I didnt come to the same conclusion but look at the reasoning for his town read, it was also terrible. it was a visceral (no eyes) reaction, the first thing to come out of his gut, just like "oh i guess zboson is town" was the first thing to come out of my gut when he posted it. So he changes from a weak, gut-reaction-based townread to a scum read. It's not like he was hard defending zboson or even really thinking about it in a way that we should be super concerned about, he was just pooping ideas out onto the thread. this is where I explain why hapahauli's case was bad. it was the same case, it was still bad.
@ S&B
Why did you go dig into your own filter the most incriminating posts against you ? Why did you include them with other points regarding the Kenpachi rule and what your play was about during D1 ?
Could you explain your motivation for it ?
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hey guys
This game kind of made me think about my townie philosophy a little bit. I've always believed that a townie's first duty is to keep from being mislynched, that doing your best to not be mislynched (whether it's by being self-evidently townie or by finding the real scum) is like the minimum and central core of town behavior.
But this game, there's so much against me (my day 1 behavior, inexplicable town sentiment, and basically everyone having taken a stance that I'm scum at one point or another, making it easy for people to go after me without being inconsistent) that I worried about that.
If I survive to MYLO, I would almost certainly be an easy target for a mislynch, giving scum the win.
So I thought, maybe I should just give up, not try to defend myself today, not try to push cases on other people, just try to set up town to be better at LYLO.
But now that I've thought about it, I've concluded that is definitely not true.
Even if I accept that one of our two remaining lynches will be wasted on me, and we only have one real lynch to find scum. It's better that we use that one real lynch now, rather than wait until LYLO. There's a bunch of reasons for this. For one, nothing is pre-ordained - maybe, if I live to (M/L)YLO, by some long shot chance I'll be able to save the day and persuade the townyie(s) not to lynch me.
But more importantly, if we only have one lynch to find the real scum, it's better to use it now while we still have at least one confirmed townie. A confirmed townie isn't just an asset because you can cross them off the suspect list. A confirmed townie is a source of reasoning and analysis that all the other townies know they can trust. In my opinion, having a confirmed townie around late in the game is very helpful in terms of sorting between good and bad cases, and organizing the town so they have the best chance to actually lynch scum.
So rest assured, I will continue to do my best to make up for how I started this game and to not get mislynched, today or ever.
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On November 21 2012 22:34 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote ++ Show Spoiler +On November 17 2012 06:36 strongandbig wrote:this post took me like more than half an hour to write so yall best actually read it.I go through my filter and look at stuff. On November 13 2012 10:01 strongandbig wrote:
if zb was scum he would have made a much longer post
##vote: hapahauli
im down with that iamperfection thinkamajig this post makes me look bad. this would be a good argument for me being scum. scum love to vote for their buddies early. In reality, I just thought iamperfection's argument seemed kinda good about the weirdness of Hapahauli's first vote/minicase/whatever-thing.
<big snip>
On November 13 2012 21:57 strongandbig wrote:
yo marv you're gonna have to edit out that post about the kenpachi rule
debears is scum tho
in other developments: seriously, I wasn't really thinking too hard about what I posted last night. Believe me or not, I didn't intend to "claim VT" when I made the post in question.
I'm going in to work in a couple hours, I'll read over the thread more carefully. However, here's my unfiltered thoughts atm
marv: i hate trying to read marv, apparently someone caught him on meta analysis a game or two ago so I'll have to look that up but it's so much easier just radfielding him
bh: thinks i'm town therefore my first reaction is to think he's town lol. i like his case on zboson though.
hapa: scummiest of the actual good players in the thread atm
more reading time here's another post that makes me look bad for a real reason. Randomly throwing suspicion on hapa without providing any reasons. Looks like I'm setting myself up for good distancing in case he flips before me, but doesn't actually create any danger for him. The actual reasoning that led me to write that line was pretty simple. Hapa's posting just wasn't very good. There was the early thing iamperfection caught, and the stupid post of Hapa's attacking me for "not sharing any information about my reads" or whatever (it's above in the section where I call things stupid). And in general, I expect Hapa to be pretty aggressive and frequently wrong, but to do so in a headstrong and confident way with fewer obvious logical flaws. However, I kind of let up on him later when he started emulating his town posting better, like the following post: On November 14 2012 03:56 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 02:31 Hapahauli wrote:Catching up on my lunch break.
Regarding SnB##UnvoteAfter sleeping on it, I'm starting to agree that his play is too far of a deviation from his normal scum play to be scummy. I don't know what he's thinking, but it's much more reckless of a playstyle than I'd expect of scum SnB. (FWIW, the fact that he's continuing this behavior into today makes me think he's an SK or something. It falls into that "townie but really off" type of play that's common with 3rd party roles.)
On November 13 2012 17:42 Clarity_nl wrote:Hapa, this still bothers me. I asked you what you thought about SnB's claim and if you thought it was bad for town, and you answered: On November 13 2012 10:12 Hapahauli wrote:
@ Clarity
Well in a theoretical sense yes, but you remember how well that worked with Cheesecake in Newbie XXX right? It's really not that significant IMO. You compared this to Cheese's claim from NMM XXX even though the situations are completely different. The only reason Cheese claimed was because he thought only VT's knew the VT flavor. So he was trying to claim without alerting scum. SnB just outright claimed VT. After I explain why it's different, you basically give me the same answer: On November 13 2012 10:25 Hapahauli wrote:On November 13 2012 10:14 Clarity_nl wrote:
It's not like he flavor claimed, thinking others didn't know the flavor. How are those situations alike?
You don't think it's a weird move for a VT to claim VT day 1? No I don't find it weird. I think it's just a pointless comment that can be made by either alignment. Again, see Mr. Cheesecake's "odd" VT claim time in the Newbie game. Him trusting Z-Bo's claim so up-front is a bit strange, but again, I don't know if it's just bad logic or scum knowing who's who. I haven't seen anything alignment indicative from him yet. The other thing I don't really like is the use of "theoretically yes" and "IMO" Whenever I've seen you post you tend to be direct and with conviction, but not this time. I still believe both situations to be the same - they are both strangely timed VT claims. Cheese's intent to "signal" other townies isn't a significant difference, as both potentially fall into the category of "scum wanting to look less suspicious despite not being suspicious." The situations are not identical by any means, but they're more similar than not. Regardless, I'm not suspicious of SnB anymore so I don't want to dwell on this.
Regarding the Z-Boson CaseI really disagree with it. The case is a giant anecdote for how Z-Boson's actions could be scummy rather than why they're scummy. ZB is setting up to look good as a wagon starter (since scum don't like to stick their necks out) and appear to contribute to town, but if you read his astonishingly short filter, it's clear he's not actually helping. He's flinging shit at the wall and hoping it sticks. All of this isn't valid at all hours into D1. All of the stuff described above is completely non-alignment indicative in the early game. Z-Boson has been less active than I'm used to seeing him, but again early D1 caveats. No reason to vote him.
Regarding iamperfectionHis sudden flip-flop on Z-Boson is really strange. He goes from strongly trusting Z-Bo's claim early in the game to a vote for really shitty reasons. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381440¤tpage=22#434In his vote post, he first picks a fight with BH - odd considering that he's ultimately going to agree with his read. He puts a lot of stock into one of Z-Bo's early D1 postings and early-game banter (meaningless). He then talks about the "iamperfection rule" and another early D1 wishy-washy post. I wouldn't mind this if it weren't for his discussion about the miller claim: I know i said early on that i thought the miller claim was more of a town tell but well i think zbos actions speak louder. WHAT?!?!? Iamperfection had almost no doubt about Z-Bo's motives, and he's willing to do a complete 180 with the above reasoning. Just take a look at his previous stance, made right after Z-Bo's claim: On November 13 2012 09:45 iamperfection wrote:
i guess theirs no reason not to believe zbos right? has to be to risky to do if he was scum right. He immediately trusted Z-Boson without question the second Z-Bo made that claim. Then all of a sudden now he turns around and can doubt the claim he so strongly believed in earlier. It makes no sense to me, and it looks like scum jumping on someone the second they have the reason to. This would be fine if he had a good case, but he just hinges on a couple of early D1 posts and the "iamperfection" rule as opposed to anything substantial. It doesn't help that the rest of his filter reads really artificially confrontational to me. It feels like he's trying to overcompensate for being caught in GSL III for not showing his "bravado" throughout the game. ##Vote iamperfection this is much more like what i expect out of hapahauli, i guess it just took a little while for him to get into character. that said his case is pretty bad for reasons i explained above
One last thing: On November 14 2012 03:52 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 03:27 debears wrote:
.......
Ok reasoning to switch from insta town read to scum read....
When I get back to my comp I will relook at it. I didnt come to the same conclusion but look at the reasoning for his town read, it was also terrible. it was a visceral (no eyes) reaction, the first thing to come out of his gut, just like "oh i guess zboson is town" was the first thing to come out of my gut when he posted it. So he changes from a weak, gut-reaction-based townread to a scum read. It's not like he was hard defending zboson or even really thinking about it in a way that we should be super concerned about, he was just pooping ideas out onto the thread. this is where I explain why hapahauli's case was bad. it was the same case, it was still bad. @ S&BWhy did you go dig into your own filter the most incriminating posts against you ? Why did you include them with other points regarding the Kenpachi rule and what your play was about during D1 ? Could you explain your motivation for it ?
why the hell wouldn't I?
so actually, there's a couple of reasons. If I point them out, explain why they're suspicious or incriminating, and also explain where they came from in terms of my mindset and motivations, I can do a better job of persuading people that I'm not scum than I could if someone else pointed them out first and put their own spin on it. That's the "political" aspect of analysis, it's always better to define yourself. That's an argument for doing this in any self-defense, regardless of your alignment.
The second reason is that it creates a sort of "intentional vulnerability" in my case. If I go through my filter pointing out and explaining which posts I see as the best reasons to suspect me, they had god damned better be the scummiest posts in my filter. If I do that selectively, and highlight and explain some suspicious posts but ignore others, then my defense goes from being "an honest and open attempt to explain and clarify my filter" to being "misdirection, attempting to get people to focus on the scummy stuff in my filter that I do have a good explanation for, and to get them to ignore the scummy stuff that I don't have a good explanation for." So that's the argument in favor of doing this type of self-analysis when you're a townie under suspicion, and that makes it super risky to do if you're actually scum under suspicion.
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@ S&B
We still have 2 confirmed townies at the moment. When are you going to be available during this mafia night ?
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So in light of my recently deciding to live, let me ask a framing question
Does it look to anyone else like DP and Djo are setting up for an endgame 1v1? I mean, like they're assuming I'll get lynched and then they'll have to argue which of the two of them is the last lynch?
I suppose this is possible if the two of them are both townies who have town reads on me. But it also makes sense for scum to be doing right now, since he'll presumably have to face a M/LYLO with iamperfection and/or kickstarter who both have really good town cred right now.
So how do we decide if it's "they're both townies who have town reads on me" versus "one of them is a townie with a town read on me, and one of them is scum"? Personally, I would put a lot of weight on the fact that djodref has been saying I'm one of his top scum reads for pretty much the entire game, but now he seems to be assuming that he needs to deal with a 1v1 vs darthpunk at L/MYLO.
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On November 21 2012 22:42 Djodref wrote:
@ S&B
We still have 2 confirmed townies at the moment. When are you going to be available during this mafia night ?
in a word: intermittently. It depends on work.
Djodref: right now, do you think I'm scum, and why?
If it's because I've been more active when I'm under pressure, which seems to be the popular reason these days, can you tell me why that is a characteristic trait of scum and not of town, especially in the light of my town philosophy which I've posted above (and which I've consistently advocated across many games) ?
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On November 21 2012 22:40 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 22:34 Djodref wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On November 17 2012 06:36 strongandbig wrote:this post took me like more than half an hour to write so yall best actually read it.I go through my filter and look at stuff. On November 13 2012 10:01 strongandbig wrote:
if zb was scum he would have made a much longer post
##vote: hapahauli
im down with that iamperfection thinkamajig this post makes me look bad. this would be a good argument for me being scum. scum love to vote for their buddies early. In reality, I just thought iamperfection's argument seemed kinda good about the weirdness of Hapahauli's first vote/minicase/whatever-thing.
<big snip>
On November 13 2012 21:57 strongandbig wrote:
yo marv you're gonna have to edit out that post about the kenpachi rule
debears is scum tho
in other developments: seriously, I wasn't really thinking too hard about what I posted last night. Believe me or not, I didn't intend to "claim VT" when I made the post in question.
I'm going in to work in a couple hours, I'll read over the thread more carefully. However, here's my unfiltered thoughts atm
marv: i hate trying to read marv, apparently someone caught him on meta analysis a game or two ago so I'll have to look that up but it's so much easier just radfielding him
bh: thinks i'm town therefore my first reaction is to think he's town lol. i like his case on zboson though.
hapa: scummiest of the actual good players in the thread atm
more reading time here's another post that makes me look bad for a real reason. Randomly throwing suspicion on hapa without providing any reasons. Looks like I'm setting myself up for good distancing in case he flips before me, but doesn't actually create any danger for him. The actual reasoning that led me to write that line was pretty simple. Hapa's posting just wasn't very good. There was the early thing iamperfection caught, and the stupid post of Hapa's attacking me for "not sharing any information about my reads" or whatever (it's above in the section where I call things stupid). And in general, I expect Hapa to be pretty aggressive and frequently wrong, but to do so in a headstrong and confident way with fewer obvious logical flaws. However, I kind of let up on him later when he started emulating his town posting better, like the following post: On November 14 2012 03:56 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 02:31 Hapahauli wrote:Catching up on my lunch break.
Regarding SnB##UnvoteAfter sleeping on it, I'm starting to agree that his play is too far of a deviation from his normal scum play to be scummy. I don't know what he's thinking, but it's much more reckless of a playstyle than I'd expect of scum SnB. (FWIW, the fact that he's continuing this behavior into today makes me think he's an SK or something. It falls into that "townie but really off" type of play that's common with 3rd party roles.)
On November 13 2012 17:42 Clarity_nl wrote:Hapa, this still bothers me. I asked you what you thought about SnB's claim and if you thought it was bad for town, and you answered: On November 13 2012 10:12 Hapahauli wrote:
@ Clarity
Well in a theoretical sense yes, but you remember how well that worked with Cheesecake in Newbie XXX right? It's really not that significant IMO. You compared this to Cheese's claim from NMM XXX even though the situations are completely different. The only reason Cheese claimed was because he thought only VT's knew the VT flavor. So he was trying to claim without alerting scum. SnB just outright claimed VT. After I explain why it's different, you basically give me the same answer: On November 13 2012 10:25 Hapahauli wrote:On November 13 2012 10:14 Clarity_nl wrote:
It's not like he flavor claimed, thinking others didn't know the flavor. How are those situations alike?
You don't think it's a weird move for a VT to claim VT day 1? No I don't find it weird. I think it's just a pointless comment that can be made by either alignment. Again, see Mr. Cheesecake's "odd" VT claim time in the Newbie game. Him trusting Z-Bo's claim so up-front is a bit strange, but again, I don't know if it's just bad logic or scum knowing who's who. I haven't seen anything alignment indicative from him yet. The other thing I don't really like is the use of "theoretically yes" and "IMO" Whenever I've seen you post you tend to be direct and with conviction, but not this time. I still believe both situations to be the same - they are both strangely timed VT claims. Cheese's intent to "signal" other townies isn't a significant difference, as both potentially fall into the category of "scum wanting to look less suspicious despite not being suspicious." The situations are not identical by any means, but they're more similar than not. Regardless, I'm not suspicious of SnB anymore so I don't want to dwell on this.
Regarding the Z-Boson CaseI really disagree with it. The case is a giant anecdote for how Z-Boson's actions could be scummy rather than why they're scummy. ZB is setting up to look good as a wagon starter (since scum don't like to stick their necks out) and appear to contribute to town, but if you read his astonishingly short filter, it's clear he's not actually helping. He's flinging shit at the wall and hoping it sticks. All of this isn't valid at all hours into D1. All of the stuff described above is completely non-alignment indicative in the early game. Z-Boson has been less active than I'm used to seeing him, but again early D1 caveats. No reason to vote him.
Regarding iamperfectionHis sudden flip-flop on Z-Boson is really strange. He goes from strongly trusting Z-Bo's claim early in the game to a vote for really shitty reasons. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381440¤tpage=22#434In his vote post, he first picks a fight with BH - odd considering that he's ultimately going to agree with his read. He puts a lot of stock into one of Z-Bo's early D1 postings and early-game banter (meaningless). He then talks about the "iamperfection rule" and another early D1 wishy-washy post. I wouldn't mind this if it weren't for his discussion about the miller claim: I know i said early on that i thought the miller claim was more of a town tell but well i think zbos actions speak louder. WHAT?!?!? Iamperfection had almost no doubt about Z-Bo's motives, and he's willing to do a complete 180 with the above reasoning. Just take a look at his previous stance, made right after Z-Bo's claim: On November 13 2012 09:45 iamperfection wrote:
i guess theirs no reason not to believe zbos right? has to be to risky to do if he was scum right. He immediately trusted Z-Boson without question the second Z-Bo made that claim. Then all of a sudden now he turns around and can doubt the claim he so strongly believed in earlier. It makes no sense to me, and it looks like scum jumping on someone the second they have the reason to. This would be fine if he had a good case, but he just hinges on a couple of early D1 posts and the "iamperfection" rule as opposed to anything substantial. It doesn't help that the rest of his filter reads really artificially confrontational to me. It feels like he's trying to overcompensate for being caught in GSL III for not showing his "bravado" throughout the game. ##Vote iamperfection this is much more like what i expect out of hapahauli, i guess it just took a little while for him to get into character. that said his case is pretty bad for reasons i explained above
One last thing: On November 14 2012 03:52 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 03:27 debears wrote:
.......
Ok reasoning to switch from insta town read to scum read....
When I get back to my comp I will relook at it. I didnt come to the same conclusion but look at the reasoning for his town read, it was also terrible. it was a visceral (no eyes) reaction, the first thing to come out of his gut, just like "oh i guess zboson is town" was the first thing to come out of my gut when he posted it. So he changes from a weak, gut-reaction-based townread to a scum read. It's not like he was hard defending zboson or even really thinking about it in a way that we should be super concerned about, he was just pooping ideas out onto the thread. this is where I explain why hapahauli's case was bad. it was the same case, it was still bad. @ S&BWhy did you go dig into your own filter the most incriminating posts against you ? Why did you include them with other points regarding the Kenpachi rule and what your play was about during D1 ? Could you explain your motivation for it ? why the hell wouldn't I? so actually, there's a couple of reasons. If I point them out, explain why they're suspicious or incriminating, and also explain where they came from in terms of my mindset and motivations, I can do a better job of persuading people that I'm not scum than I could if someone else pointed them out first and put their own spin on it. That's the "political" aspect of analysis, it's always better to define yourself. That's an argument for doing this in any self-defense, regardless of your alignment. The second reason is that it creates a sort of "intentional vulnerability" in my case. If I go through my filter pointing out and explaining which posts I see as the best reasons to suspect me, they had god damned better be the scummiest posts in my filter. If I do that selectively, and highlight and explain some suspicious posts but ignore others, then my defense goes from being " an honest and open attempt to explain and clarify my filter" to being " misdirection, attempting to get people to focus on the scummy stuff in my filter that I do have a good explanation for, and to get them to ignore the scummy stuff that I don't have a good explanation for." So that's the argument in favor of doing this type of self-analysis when you're a townie under suspicion, and that makes it super risky to do if you're actually scum under suspicion.
@ S&B
So, if I had noticed these posts as being the most incriminating against you while skimming your filter, and then realized that you had preemptively given your reasons to post these, I should conclude that your self-introspection was honest ?
"Big plays" 
That's risky and ballsy play, regardless of your alignment.
I don't understand the town motivation for it...
Wouldn't it be better to see if people are actually going to go after you for what could be really incriminating or just silly reasons ? You could tell the difference on who is going to push a mislynch and who is honestly going after you.
Here, if you are town, you are just giving ammo to both town and mafia against you. The only good thing is that you already gave your answer for it, but you that something you should do for both alignment.
The interactions you had with Hapa, especially when you call him scummiest out of the blue, that doesn't look good. Didn't you reproach the same kind of thing to Clarity in your case against him ?
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On November 21 2012 22:56 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 22:40 strongandbig wrote:On November 21 2012 22:34 Djodref wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On November 17 2012 06:36 strongandbig wrote:this post took me like more than half an hour to write so yall best actually read it.I go through my filter and look at stuff. On November 13 2012 10:01 strongandbig wrote:
if zb was scum he would have made a much longer post
##vote: hapahauli
im down with that iamperfection thinkamajig this post makes me look bad. this would be a good argument for me being scum. scum love to vote for their buddies early. In reality, I just thought iamperfection's argument seemed kinda good about the weirdness of Hapahauli's first vote/minicase/whatever-thing.
<big snip>
On November 13 2012 21:57 strongandbig wrote:
yo marv you're gonna have to edit out that post about the kenpachi rule
debears is scum tho
in other developments: seriously, I wasn't really thinking too hard about what I posted last night. Believe me or not, I didn't intend to "claim VT" when I made the post in question.
I'm going in to work in a couple hours, I'll read over the thread more carefully. However, here's my unfiltered thoughts atm
marv: i hate trying to read marv, apparently someone caught him on meta analysis a game or two ago so I'll have to look that up but it's so much easier just radfielding him
bh: thinks i'm town therefore my first reaction is to think he's town lol. i like his case on zboson though.
hapa: scummiest of the actual good players in the thread atm
more reading time here's another post that makes me look bad for a real reason. Randomly throwing suspicion on hapa without providing any reasons. Looks like I'm setting myself up for good distancing in case he flips before me, but doesn't actually create any danger for him. The actual reasoning that led me to write that line was pretty simple. Hapa's posting just wasn't very good. There was the early thing iamperfection caught, and the stupid post of Hapa's attacking me for "not sharing any information about my reads" or whatever (it's above in the section where I call things stupid). And in general, I expect Hapa to be pretty aggressive and frequently wrong, but to do so in a headstrong and confident way with fewer obvious logical flaws. However, I kind of let up on him later when he started emulating his town posting better, like the following post: On November 14 2012 03:56 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 02:31 Hapahauli wrote:Catching up on my lunch break.
Regarding SnB##UnvoteAfter sleeping on it, I'm starting to agree that his play is too far of a deviation from his normal scum play to be scummy. I don't know what he's thinking, but it's much more reckless of a playstyle than I'd expect of scum SnB. (FWIW, the fact that he's continuing this behavior into today makes me think he's an SK or something. It falls into that "townie but really off" type of play that's common with 3rd party roles.)
On November 13 2012 17:42 Clarity_nl wrote:Hapa, this still bothers me. I asked you what you thought about SnB's claim and if you thought it was bad for town, and you answered: On November 13 2012 10:12 Hapahauli wrote:
@ Clarity
Well in a theoretical sense yes, but you remember how well that worked with Cheesecake in Newbie XXX right? It's really not that significant IMO. You compared this to Cheese's claim from NMM XXX even though the situations are completely different. The only reason Cheese claimed was because he thought only VT's knew the VT flavor. So he was trying to claim without alerting scum. SnB just outright claimed VT. After I explain why it's different, you basically give me the same answer: On November 13 2012 10:25 Hapahauli wrote:On November 13 2012 10:14 Clarity_nl wrote:
It's not like he flavor claimed, thinking others didn't know the flavor. How are those situations alike?
You don't think it's a weird move for a VT to claim VT day 1? No I don't find it weird. I think it's just a pointless comment that can be made by either alignment. Again, see Mr. Cheesecake's "odd" VT claim time in the Newbie game. Him trusting Z-Bo's claim so up-front is a bit strange, but again, I don't know if it's just bad logic or scum knowing who's who. I haven't seen anything alignment indicative from him yet. The other thing I don't really like is the use of "theoretically yes" and "IMO" Whenever I've seen you post you tend to be direct and with conviction, but not this time. I still believe both situations to be the same - they are both strangely timed VT claims. Cheese's intent to "signal" other townies isn't a significant difference, as both potentially fall into the category of "scum wanting to look less suspicious despite not being suspicious." The situations are not identical by any means, but they're more similar than not. Regardless, I'm not suspicious of SnB anymore so I don't want to dwell on this.
Regarding the Z-Boson CaseI really disagree with it. The case is a giant anecdote for how Z-Boson's actions could be scummy rather than why they're scummy. ZB is setting up to look good as a wagon starter (since scum don't like to stick their necks out) and appear to contribute to town, but if you read his astonishingly short filter, it's clear he's not actually helping. He's flinging shit at the wall and hoping it sticks. All of this isn't valid at all hours into D1. All of the stuff described above is completely non-alignment indicative in the early game. Z-Boson has been less active than I'm used to seeing him, but again early D1 caveats. No reason to vote him.
Regarding iamperfectionHis sudden flip-flop on Z-Boson is really strange. He goes from strongly trusting Z-Bo's claim early in the game to a vote for really shitty reasons. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381440¤tpage=22#434In his vote post, he first picks a fight with BH - odd considering that he's ultimately going to agree with his read. He puts a lot of stock into one of Z-Bo's early D1 postings and early-game banter (meaningless). He then talks about the "iamperfection rule" and another early D1 wishy-washy post. I wouldn't mind this if it weren't for his discussion about the miller claim: I know i said early on that i thought the miller claim was more of a town tell but well i think zbos actions speak louder. WHAT?!?!? Iamperfection had almost no doubt about Z-Bo's motives, and he's willing to do a complete 180 with the above reasoning. Just take a look at his previous stance, made right after Z-Bo's claim: On November 13 2012 09:45 iamperfection wrote:
i guess theirs no reason not to believe zbos right? has to be to risky to do if he was scum right. He immediately trusted Z-Boson without question the second Z-Bo made that claim. Then all of a sudden now he turns around and can doubt the claim he so strongly believed in earlier. It makes no sense to me, and it looks like scum jumping on someone the second they have the reason to. This would be fine if he had a good case, but he just hinges on a couple of early D1 posts and the "iamperfection" rule as opposed to anything substantial. It doesn't help that the rest of his filter reads really artificially confrontational to me. It feels like he's trying to overcompensate for being caught in GSL III for not showing his "bravado" throughout the game. ##Vote iamperfection this is much more like what i expect out of hapahauli, i guess it just took a little while for him to get into character. that said his case is pretty bad for reasons i explained above
One last thing: On November 14 2012 03:52 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 03:27 debears wrote:
.......
Ok reasoning to switch from insta town read to scum read....
When I get back to my comp I will relook at it. I didnt come to the same conclusion but look at the reasoning for his town read, it was also terrible. it was a visceral (no eyes) reaction, the first thing to come out of his gut, just like "oh i guess zboson is town" was the first thing to come out of my gut when he posted it. So he changes from a weak, gut-reaction-based townread to a scum read. It's not like he was hard defending zboson or even really thinking about it in a way that we should be super concerned about, he was just pooping ideas out onto the thread. this is where I explain why hapahauli's case was bad. it was the same case, it was still bad. @ S&BWhy did you go dig into your own filter the most incriminating posts against you ? Why did you include them with other points regarding the Kenpachi rule and what your play was about during D1 ? Could you explain your motivation for it ? why the hell wouldn't I? so actually, there's a couple of reasons. If I point them out, explain why they're suspicious or incriminating, and also explain where they came from in terms of my mindset and motivations, I can do a better job of persuading people that I'm not scum than I could if someone else pointed them out first and put their own spin on it. That's the "political" aspect of analysis, it's always better to define yourself. That's an argument for doing this in any self-defense, regardless of your alignment. The second reason is that it creates a sort of "intentional vulnerability" in my case. If I go through my filter pointing out and explaining which posts I see as the best reasons to suspect me, they had god damned better be the scummiest posts in my filter. If I do that selectively, and highlight and explain some suspicious posts but ignore others, then my defense goes from being " an honest and open attempt to explain and clarify my filter" to being " misdirection, attempting to get people to focus on the scummy stuff in my filter that I do have a good explanation for, and to get them to ignore the scummy stuff that I don't have a good explanation for." So that's the argument in favor of doing this type of self-analysis when you're a townie under suspicion, and that makes it super risky to do if you're actually scum under suspicion. @ S&BSo, if I had noticed these posts as being the most incriminating against you while skimming your filter, and then realized that you had preemptively given your reasons to post these, I should conclude that your self-introspection was honest ? "Big plays" That's risky and ballsy play, regardless of your alignment. I don't understand the town motivation for it... Wouldn't it be better to see if people are actually going to go after you for what could be really incriminating or just silly reasons ? You could tell the difference on who is going to push a mislynch and who is honestly going after you. Here, if you are town, you are just giving ammo to both town and mafia against you. The only good thing is that you already gave your answer for it, but you that something you should do for both alignment. The interactions you had with Hapa, especially when you call him scummiest out of the blue, that doesn't look good. Didn't you reproach the same kind of thing to Clarity in your case against him ?
my case on clarity wasn't just "that he was posting fluff" or "that he wasn't giving good reasons," it was that in his filter I got a consistent overall impression that he was doing things which would make him look townie without actually helping the town. It was based on my perception that he was being deceptive.
Clearly, since he flipped town, I was wrong.
But I don't think my case on him applies to me. It's true that I didn't actually help the town much during the first day, although as I explained, I think I was doing more than purely trolling (at least, in terms of my thought process). But I definitely wasn't trying to create a town-looking thread persona or deceive people into thinking that I was town.
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On November 21 2012 22:49 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 22:42 Djodref wrote:
@ S&B
We still have 2 confirmed townies at the moment. When are you going to be available during this mafia night ? in a word: intermittently. It depends on work. Djodref: right now, do you think I'm scum, and why? If it's because I've been more active when I'm under pressure, which seems to be the popular reason these days, can you tell me why that is a characteristic trait of scum and not of town, especially in the light of my town philosophy which I've posted above (and which I've consistently advocated across many games) ?
@ S&B
Right now, I think you are town.
Mainly because we have followed the same approach for this game. I believed that BH was scum and you were suspicious of him before me.
I wanted to solve the game with setup extrapolation, and you believed in it too. I was really happy when I saw you posting combinations and combinations of letters because everyone else was not really enthusiastic about it. It's difficult for me to believe that a scum player would participate to this setup extrapolation. At best, we could have get BH right away, or something like 5 confirmed townies and it would have been the end of the game.
Regarding the pressure thing, I'm also in the same case. I didn't want to scumhunt in a traditional way because I really believe I didn't need to, and it's really time-consuming with the thread that we have and even boring when you know that a more beautiful and easier solution is available. I was a fool...
But still, there are some things like the interaction you had with Hapa, the fact that you are not present for the lynches especially when you were close to be lynched yourself. These things, I'm wary of. So I wanted to take a close look at Clarity lynch first. Didn't have time yet but I really want to consider everything carefully. Even iamp and Kickstart again.
But right now, DP is the last scum for me.
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On November 21 2012 23:04 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 22:56 Djodref wrote:On November 21 2012 22:40 strongandbig wrote:On November 21 2012 22:34 Djodref wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On November 17 2012 06:36 strongandbig wrote:this post took me like more than half an hour to write so yall best actually read it.I go through my filter and look at stuff. On November 13 2012 10:01 strongandbig wrote:
if zb was scum he would have made a much longer post
##vote: hapahauli
im down with that iamperfection thinkamajig this post makes me look bad. this would be a good argument for me being scum. scum love to vote for their buddies early. In reality, I just thought iamperfection's argument seemed kinda good about the weirdness of Hapahauli's first vote/minicase/whatever-thing.
<big snip>
On November 13 2012 21:57 strongandbig wrote:
yo marv you're gonna have to edit out that post about the kenpachi rule
debears is scum tho
in other developments: seriously, I wasn't really thinking too hard about what I posted last night. Believe me or not, I didn't intend to "claim VT" when I made the post in question.
I'm going in to work in a couple hours, I'll read over the thread more carefully. However, here's my unfiltered thoughts atm
marv: i hate trying to read marv, apparently someone caught him on meta analysis a game or two ago so I'll have to look that up but it's so much easier just radfielding him
bh: thinks i'm town therefore my first reaction is to think he's town lol. i like his case on zboson though.
hapa: scummiest of the actual good players in the thread atm
more reading time here's another post that makes me look bad for a real reason. Randomly throwing suspicion on hapa without providing any reasons. Looks like I'm setting myself up for good distancing in case he flips before me, but doesn't actually create any danger for him. The actual reasoning that led me to write that line was pretty simple. Hapa's posting just wasn't very good. There was the early thing iamperfection caught, and the stupid post of Hapa's attacking me for "not sharing any information about my reads" or whatever (it's above in the section where I call things stupid). And in general, I expect Hapa to be pretty aggressive and frequently wrong, but to do so in a headstrong and confident way with fewer obvious logical flaws. However, I kind of let up on him later when he started emulating his town posting better, like the following post: On November 14 2012 03:56 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 02:31 Hapahauli wrote:Catching up on my lunch break.
Regarding SnB##UnvoteAfter sleeping on it, I'm starting to agree that his play is too far of a deviation from his normal scum play to be scummy. I don't know what he's thinking, but it's much more reckless of a playstyle than I'd expect of scum SnB. (FWIW, the fact that he's continuing this behavior into today makes me think he's an SK or something. It falls into that "townie but really off" type of play that's common with 3rd party roles.)
On November 13 2012 17:42 Clarity_nl wrote:Hapa, this still bothers me. I asked you what you thought about SnB's claim and if you thought it was bad for town, and you answered: On November 13 2012 10:12 Hapahauli wrote:
@ Clarity
Well in a theoretical sense yes, but you remember how well that worked with Cheesecake in Newbie XXX right? It's really not that significant IMO. You compared this to Cheese's claim from NMM XXX even though the situations are completely different. The only reason Cheese claimed was because he thought only VT's knew the VT flavor. So he was trying to claim without alerting scum. SnB just outright claimed VT. After I explain why it's different, you basically give me the same answer: On November 13 2012 10:25 Hapahauli wrote:On November 13 2012 10:14 Clarity_nl wrote:
It's not like he flavor claimed, thinking others didn't know the flavor. How are those situations alike?
You don't think it's a weird move for a VT to claim VT day 1? No I don't find it weird. I think it's just a pointless comment that can be made by either alignment. Again, see Mr. Cheesecake's "odd" VT claim time in the Newbie game. Him trusting Z-Bo's claim so up-front is a bit strange, but again, I don't know if it's just bad logic or scum knowing who's who. I haven't seen anything alignment indicative from him yet. The other thing I don't really like is the use of "theoretically yes" and "IMO" Whenever I've seen you post you tend to be direct and with conviction, but not this time. I still believe both situations to be the same - they are both strangely timed VT claims. Cheese's intent to "signal" other townies isn't a significant difference, as both potentially fall into the category of "scum wanting to look less suspicious despite not being suspicious." The situations are not identical by any means, but they're more similar than not. Regardless, I'm not suspicious of SnB anymore so I don't want to dwell on this.
Regarding the Z-Boson CaseI really disagree with it. The case is a giant anecdote for how Z-Boson's actions could be scummy rather than why they're scummy. ZB is setting up to look good as a wagon starter (since scum don't like to stick their necks out) and appear to contribute to town, but if you read his astonishingly short filter, it's clear he's not actually helping. He's flinging shit at the wall and hoping it sticks. All of this isn't valid at all hours into D1. All of the stuff described above is completely non-alignment indicative in the early game. Z-Boson has been less active than I'm used to seeing him, but again early D1 caveats. No reason to vote him.
Regarding iamperfectionHis sudden flip-flop on Z-Boson is really strange. He goes from strongly trusting Z-Bo's claim early in the game to a vote for really shitty reasons. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381440¤tpage=22#434In his vote post, he first picks a fight with BH - odd considering that he's ultimately going to agree with his read. He puts a lot of stock into one of Z-Bo's early D1 postings and early-game banter (meaningless). He then talks about the "iamperfection rule" and another early D1 wishy-washy post. I wouldn't mind this if it weren't for his discussion about the miller claim: I know i said early on that i thought the miller claim was more of a town tell but well i think zbos actions speak louder. WHAT?!?!? Iamperfection had almost no doubt about Z-Bo's motives, and he's willing to do a complete 180 with the above reasoning. Just take a look at his previous stance, made right after Z-Bo's claim: On November 13 2012 09:45 iamperfection wrote:
i guess theirs no reason not to believe zbos right? has to be to risky to do if he was scum right. He immediately trusted Z-Boson without question the second Z-Bo made that claim. Then all of a sudden now he turns around and can doubt the claim he so strongly believed in earlier. It makes no sense to me, and it looks like scum jumping on someone the second they have the reason to. This would be fine if he had a good case, but he just hinges on a couple of early D1 posts and the "iamperfection" rule as opposed to anything substantial. It doesn't help that the rest of his filter reads really artificially confrontational to me. It feels like he's trying to overcompensate for being caught in GSL III for not showing his "bravado" throughout the game. ##Vote iamperfection this is much more like what i expect out of hapahauli, i guess it just took a little while for him to get into character. that said his case is pretty bad for reasons i explained above
One last thing: On November 14 2012 03:52 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 03:27 debears wrote:
.......
Ok reasoning to switch from insta town read to scum read....
When I get back to my comp I will relook at it. I didnt come to the same conclusion but look at the reasoning for his town read, it was also terrible. it was a visceral (no eyes) reaction, the first thing to come out of his gut, just like "oh i guess zboson is town" was the first thing to come out of my gut when he posted it. So he changes from a weak, gut-reaction-based townread to a scum read. It's not like he was hard defending zboson or even really thinking about it in a way that we should be super concerned about, he was just pooping ideas out onto the thread. this is where I explain why hapahauli's case was bad. it was the same case, it was still bad. @ S&BWhy did you go dig into your own filter the most incriminating posts against you ? Why did you include them with other points regarding the Kenpachi rule and what your play was about during D1 ? Could you explain your motivation for it ? why the hell wouldn't I? so actually, there's a couple of reasons. If I point them out, explain why they're suspicious or incriminating, and also explain where they came from in terms of my mindset and motivations, I can do a better job of persuading people that I'm not scum than I could if someone else pointed them out first and put their own spin on it. That's the "political" aspect of analysis, it's always better to define yourself. That's an argument for doing this in any self-defense, regardless of your alignment. The second reason is that it creates a sort of "intentional vulnerability" in my case. If I go through my filter pointing out and explaining which posts I see as the best reasons to suspect me, they had god damned better be the scummiest posts in my filter. If I do that selectively, and highlight and explain some suspicious posts but ignore others, then my defense goes from being " an honest and open attempt to explain and clarify my filter" to being " misdirection, attempting to get people to focus on the scummy stuff in my filter that I do have a good explanation for, and to get them to ignore the scummy stuff that I don't have a good explanation for." So that's the argument in favor of doing this type of self-analysis when you're a townie under suspicion, and that makes it super risky to do if you're actually scum under suspicion. @ S&BSo, if I had noticed these posts as being the most incriminating against you while skimming your filter, and then realized that you had preemptively given your reasons to post these, I should conclude that your self-introspection was honest ? "Big plays" That's risky and ballsy play, regardless of your alignment. I don't understand the town motivation for it... Wouldn't it be better to see if people are actually going to go after you for what could be really incriminating or just silly reasons ? You could tell the difference on who is going to push a mislynch and who is honestly going after you. Here, if you are town, you are just giving ammo to both town and mafia against you. The only good thing is that you already gave your answer for it, but you that something you should do for both alignment. The interactions you had with Hapa, especially when you call him scummiest out of the blue, that doesn't look good. Didn't you reproach the same kind of thing to Clarity in your case against him ? my case on clarity wasn't just "that he was posting fluff" or "that he wasn't giving good reasons," it was that in his filter I got a consistent overall impression that he was doing things which would make him look townie without actually helping the town. It was based on my perception that he was being deceptive. Clearly, since he flipped town, I was wrong. But I don't think my case on him applies to me. It's true that I didn't actually help the town much during the first day, although as I explained, I think I was doing more than purely trolling (at least, in terms of my thought process). But I definitely wasn't trying to create a town-looking thread persona or deceive people into thinking that I was town.
@ S&B
I wanted to talk about the interactions with Hapa especially. I'll look it up myself but I don't remember if you were presenting this as a main point against him or not...
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On November 21 2012 22:47 strongandbig wrote:
So in light of my recently deciding to live, let me ask a framing question
Does it look to anyone else like DP and Djo are setting up for an endgame 1v1? I mean, like they're assuming I'll get lynched and then they'll have to argue which of the two of them is the last lynch?
I suppose this is possible if the two of them are both townies who have town reads on me. But it also makes sense for scum to be doing right now, since he'll presumably have to face a M/LYLO with iamperfection and/or kickstarter who both have really good town cred right now.
So how do we decide if it's "they're both townies who have town reads on me" versus "one of them is a townie with a town read on me, and one of them is scum"? Personally, I would put a lot of weight on the fact that djodref has been saying I'm one of his top scum reads for pretty much the entire game, but now he seems to be assuming that he needs to deal with a 1v1 vs darthpunk at L/MYLO.
@ S&B
Regarding DP, I might have some confirmation bias against him, but his case against me was full of confirmation bias and twisting some of my statements (i.e. the Kickstart part), so it doesn't hold, at the exception of the utter lack of scumhunting in my tread, which I recognize. He is also jumping at everything I post so I guess he really wants mislynch me as soon as possible, regardless of his alignment, but I take this more as a scum tell than a town tell.
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On November 21 2012 22:47 strongandbig wrote:
So in light of my recently deciding to live, let me ask a framing question
Does it look to anyone else like DP and Djo are setting up for an endgame 1v1? I mean, like they're assuming I'll get lynched and then they'll have to argue which of the two of them is the last lynch?
I suppose this is possible if the two of them are both townies who have town reads on me. But it also makes sense for scum to be doing right now, since he'll presumably have to face a M/LYLO with iamperfection and/or kickstarter who both have really good town cred right now.
So how do we decide if it's "they're both townies who have town reads on me" versus "one of them is a townie with a town read on me, and one of them is scum"? Personally, I would put a lot of weight on the fact that djodref has been saying I'm one of his top scum reads for pretty much the entire game, but now he seems to be assuming that he needs to deal with a 1v1 vs darthpunk at L/MYLO.
The reason why I assuming a L/MYLO with DP is because I don't think that you are going to flip scum, DP has more chances than you do, but I don't see how I can convince everybody else, especially Kickstart and Hopeless, that you are not tomorrow lynch.
Do you honestly think that we could change Kickstart disposition at your regard ?
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could you sum up why djo is town again besides that he took the same position as you regarding bh
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ebwop djo sum up why s&b is town again...so on and so forth
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I'd just like to apologize for turning back into a lurker. I'm sure that's pissed some people off given that I'm pretty much confirmed town and doing nothing more to help.
I wholeheartedly would vouch for iamperfection being town this game. But he is the only player 'eligible' for lynch that I am that confident in. I'm going to re-read all of day1 in as much context as I can before the deadline and hopefully have some concrete reads on who is still alive.
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On November 21 2012 23:54 Hopeless1der wrote:
I'd just like to apologize for turning back into a lurker. I'm sure that's pissed some people off given that I'm pretty much confirmed town and doing nothing more to help.
I wholeheartedly would vouch for iamperfection being town this game. But he is the only player 'eligible' for lynch that I am that confident in. I'm going to re-read all of day1 in as much context as I can before the deadline and hopefully have some concrete reads on who is still alive.
please reread my two defense posts before you make up your mind based only on day 1. I've admitted my day 1 was pretty bad but I don't think that alone should determine your read on me at this point.
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EPT
