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On November 18 2012 14:43 Clarity_nl wrote:
How does mass claiming confirm that there's an SK? I think hopeless is 98% vigi and I will not lynch him until lylo, or if we lynch the scum and the game doesn't end.
I'm thinking about the mass claim, but it's hard to justify exposing all our blues. I'll go along if others do.
@ Clarity
I think that Hope is Vig even if we obtain the proof that there is a SK with a mass claim.
Are you familiar with the C9++ setup ? If not, I recommend to have a careful look at this page. It's quite interesting and I think this is something you have to know if you want to be a better player and/or if you want to host a game sometime.
Anyway, here is the most interesting part regarding the setup, given our current situation. To sum up, the scum roles are a function of the number of "T" letters you obtain when you pick 7 letters in between the following letter probability set.
T = 1/2
D = 1/10 (in our game, the "D" letter gives us JK roles)
V = 1/10 (one-shot Vigs only)
M = 1/10 (mason and miller roles)
B = 1/20 (town RB roles)
C = 3/20 (you need two "C" letters to have one fully operational Cop in the game)
Please note that one of the letters in our rolled set for this game is M and that one other is V (Hopeless). Let's take a look at the different possibilities for the scum roles.
Scum Roles
TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer
a 7 "T" letter set is impossible because we have at least one "M"
TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather
impossible because we would already have won the game
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer
This setup is possible only if one of BH or Hopeless is lying and is the remaining SK. I think we can safely discard this possibility unless we are at lylo with BH or with Hopeless. Moreover, there are only 2 mafia in this setup and no more blues on top of Hopeless and BH, even if one of them is lying. MVTTTTT or MDTTTTT if you want.
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
impossible setup because of Bowser flip
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
impossible setup because of Bowser flip
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
I think that this is the setup we are in (and it is the most likely probability-wise, something like 40%). It leaves the room for 2 or 3 more blues on top of Hopeless, information that we can be confirm with a mass-claim.
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
This setup has roughly a 15% probability to happen. It can also be confirmed with a mass claim but it would leave us in a dangerous position with all the blues revealed for the SK and the remaining scum. But we would know for sure that there is a SK and start looking for him seriously. Anyway, it is less likely to happen.
0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
This setup has only a 5% probability to happen. We would have enough blue to outright solve the game.
Is there anything stil unclear ?
The more I think about it, the more I think that mass claiming at the end of the night is our best move but I need everyone participation. I beg you to seriously consider it.
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I don't feel like saying much more tbh, nothing has changed. We should not have lynched ZB we should have lynched SnB, this is how I felt then and how I feel now and it is how I will vote. I still am not sure how mass claim will clear anything up Djo. Here is how it will work: Bh claims JK, hope claims vig, everyone else will say VT. We don't require a claim to figure out that this is how it will turn out. My point is I think we are just as well off not claiming but again, if a majority of people want to then whatever I will as it makes no real difference to me, I just don't think it will shed as much light on the situation as you do.
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On November 18 2012 15:04 Clarity_nl wrote:
Currently the holy town trinity is iamp, hope and myself.
Currently the scum that looks to be buddying up with a scummy town to look more towny is Djo or SnB.
Currently Kickstart, Darth, debears, blazing are ALL not contributing. And it's driving me up the goddamn wall.
@ Clarity
I don't understand where you coming from with the "buddy" think. Could you be more explicit ?
I'm trying to get everyone participation in my plan to win this game, that's all. And I also think it would be better for town atmosphere if people would stop to insult each other and start to listen at each other more. And that makes sense because it is likely that we have only one bad guy left.
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EBWOP
IF there are more blues, it is up to them to claim as their claims are the only thing that will make your plan work, and really that is up to them.
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On November 18 2012 15:29 Kickstart wrote:
I don't feel like saying much more tbh, nothing has changed. We should not have lynched ZB we should have lynched SnB, this is how I felt then and how I feel now and it is how I will vote. I still am not sure how mass claim will clear anything up Djo. Here is how it will work: Bh claims JK, hope claims vig, everyone else will say VT. We don't require a claim to figure out that this is how it will turn out. My point is I think we are just as well off not claiming but again, if a majority of people want to then whatever I will as it makes no real difference to me, I just don't think it will shed as much light on the situation as you do.
Fuck me dude.
Reasons.
Don't just give us
1. SnB
2. Djo
3. BH
THIS ISNT HELPFUL. You're repeating what most of us have been saying for a while. GIVE US REASONS.
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On November 18 2012 15:29 Kickstart wrote:
I don't feel like saying much more tbh, nothing has changed. We should not have lynched ZB we should have lynched SnB, this is how I felt then and how I feel now and it is how I will vote. I still am not sure how mass claim will clear anything up Djo. Here is how it will work: Bh claims JK, hope claims vig, everyone else will say VT. We don't require a claim to figure out that this is how it will turn out. My point is I think we are just as well off not claiming but again, if a majority of people want to then whatever I will as it makes no real difference to me, I just don't think it will shed as much light on the situation as you do.
@ Kickstart
This is impossible, please read my posts in detail.
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@BH
what do you think of djo's plan?
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On November 18 2012 15:01 iamperfection wrote:Show nested quote +On November 18 2012 14:55 Djodref wrote:On November 18 2012 14:41 iamperfection wrote:
s&b like wtf man you just disappear like wtf dude.
I know my little mini case on you is kind of silly with the dota thing is crazy but you could at least call it stupid. DO YOU CARE s&b.
Bh think about your action critically please i will lead the wagon of justice against you myself if you make another dumb play this game.
Also DP want to hear your thoughts in light of zbos flip is clarity who your still thinking now because i dont really see it.
djo i know you think setup speculation but please do some traditional scum hunting before dawn.
I will post updated thoughts in the 1 hour grace period like last time. I will probably be quieter tomorrow because weekends are bad for my mafia play but i will be here 100% during that grace period.
@ iampI'm sorry but I don't think that we need traditional scum hunting if we mass-claim. Why would you want to read in details 130 pages of posts when you can use simple logic to find the bad guys ? Are you in or not ? Anyway I want to lynch BH tomorrow so I'll bring a case against him. S&B is on my side so I'm not inclined to lynch him... I am a bit wary of debears right now because he has been a little stupid wrt the Z-Bo lynch and this is not something I expect from town debears. But it's sunday and he has a long filter and I think there is a better way to solve this game. was i being unreasonable? Do it and ill do the mass claim. Also wouldn't it feel double nice if after your traditional scumhunting you catch them with setup speculation? double win see.
@ iamp
Actually, that's a good argument. If you don't mind, I'll try to explain the concept one more time to Kickstart and Clarity because they are here and is seems to me that they don't see how mass claim would greatly help us to solve the game. I'll look at debears after that 
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On November 18 2012 15:36 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote +On November 18 2012 15:01 iamperfection wrote:On November 18 2012 14:55 Djodref wrote:On November 18 2012 14:41 iamperfection wrote:
s&b like wtf man you just disappear like wtf dude.
I know my little mini case on you is kind of silly with the dota thing is crazy but you could at least call it stupid. DO YOU CARE s&b.
Bh think about your action critically please i will lead the wagon of justice against you myself if you make another dumb play this game.
Also DP want to hear your thoughts in light of zbos flip is clarity who your still thinking now because i dont really see it.
djo i know you think setup speculation but please do some traditional scum hunting before dawn.
I will post updated thoughts in the 1 hour grace period like last time. I will probably be quieter tomorrow because weekends are bad for my mafia play but i will be here 100% during that grace period.
@ iampI'm sorry but I don't think that we need traditional scum hunting if we mass-claim. Why would you want to read in details 130 pages of posts when you can use simple logic to find the bad guys ? Are you in or not ? Anyway I want to lynch BH tomorrow so I'll bring a case against him. S&B is on my side so I'm not inclined to lynch him... I am a bit wary of debears right now because he has been a little stupid wrt the Z-Bo lynch and this is not something I expect from town debears. But it's sunday and he has a long filter and I think there is a better way to solve this game. was i being unreasonable? Do it and ill do the mass claim. Also wouldn't it feel double nice if after your traditional scumhunting you catch them with setup speculation? double win see. @ iampActually, that's a good argument. If you don't mind, I'll try to explain the concept one more time to Kickstart and Clarity because they are here and is seems to me that they don't see how mass claim would greatly help us to solve the game. I'll look at debears after that
good boy
good night
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How about you actually let us think about it rather than spamming the thread with giant posts that just repeat all the other giant posts you've made.
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I've already given my reasons on SNB, read my filter and you will find it. Djo I haven't said much about but if Thrawn were still here I'd want him gone next (originally I wanted Hopeless gone but since he claimed vig, and I have no reason to not believe the claim, I would start going after the people who I felt contributed minimally to town: snb thrawn being the top two). Now I know that Djo is a replacement so that is why I want to give him more time. But so far he has just been pushing his read on BH (and I think this mass claim is his plan to "catch" BH). But I personally don't see much reason to lynch BH yet until after some of the other people are gone.
Not sure what more you want me to expand upon.
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A lot happened since you said SnB was scummy. A lot happened since you've said anything at all.
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EBWOP
As I said, nothing has changed - i already gave my views on ZB and his lynch tells me nothing so my views are the same as they have been ;/
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Like what, ZB gets mislynched, a lynch that I didnt want to begin with?
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On November 18 2012 15:31 Kickstart wrote:
EBWOP
IF there are more blues, it is up to them to claim as their claims are the only thing that will make your plan work, and really that is up to them.
@ Kickstart
That's not really true. Because if we have enough VT claims, the blues are going to be outed anyway. That's why I want to discuss this plan beforehand. I understand that the blue decision should be more important but it can force them to claim if enough people are following the plan.
Do you understand now how it is going to allow us to know is BH claim is fake or not ?
Do you understand now how we can be sure if there is a SK or not ?
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On November 18 2012 15:38 Clarity_nl wrote:
How about you actually let us think about it rather than spamming the thread with giant posts that just repeat all the other giant posts you've made.
@ Clarity
You know my style 
But that's ok, I'll give you some time. Please take the time to check the link I gave, it's quite interesting ^^
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
GOD shut up with the fucking setup speculation you slimy skinned half-animate lizard carcass!
Look, here's how we're handling an N2 roleclaim:
Hopeless and I have already claimed.
If you are a VT, do not claim.
If you are a blue, it is up to you whether you want to claim or not, and when to do so. If you claim tonight, you should probably do so during the final hour.
If you are a VT, after the blue has claimed, you can claim. If you do so before hand you are being a dick and outing our blues, who might not have results yet, for no reason. You dick.
Q: "But blazinghand, I drodref, and a jubjub and want to make the blue's decisions for him, shoudln't we just have veryone claim regardless of what the blue thinks?"
A: NO. Blue makes this decision. If it's a cop with 2 results on dead people or something he should not claim UNLESS HE FEELS LIKE IT. This might mean he wants to claim at the start of D3 rather than the end of N2 when he knows what his result is. The mass-claim shoudl be in the hands of the blue role, not in the hands of VTs
Q: "But Blazinghand, I think you're scum and I, a VT, want to claim to force the blue to claim!"
A: NO. The Blue is the only one who has the information neccessary to decide whether or not he claims. a VT mass-claim FORCES the blue to do something he doesn't want to do. Let the blue decide.
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
Seriously, no VT claims. NADA. VTs are NOT allowed to claim, or even allowed to say they think the blue SHOULD claim. All this does is tell scum who the last blue is. If everyone except for one guy is like "ok, the blue should claim" and the blue doesn't claim well damn look what you did.
The only person who is allowed to claim is the blue, and after the blue claims, everyone else claims. We are not allowed to make this decision for him and the fact that anyone would take djoref even remotely seriously is bad. Nobody should even say "the blue should claim" cause this helps scum guide their shots if the blue doesn't claim. Seriously. This issue is closed.
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Suddenly blazing has a super strong opinion.
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
Djoref you're still opting out of serious scumhunting discussion with your specious claim-strats, setup speculation, and unnatural tunneling of me. I gave you a pass for 72 hours to get your shit together, and I'm really not seeing it. Is your transition here really to try to out a blue who doesn't want to be outed? The blues make their own decisions, not you.
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EPT
