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Town reading is what prevents town from mislynching (misslynching you for instance) and reduce scum suspects, you shouldn't underestimate it (or rather, you shouldn't assume it's something only scum would do...seriously why do people keep thinking this?)
On October 04 2012 03:33 Keirathi wrote:
Regarding gonzaw:
I just can't get over how 1) he accuses Nisani of being wishy-washy towards iamperfection and 2) says thats what what he would do as scum, when thats EXACTLY what he had done this game.
When he said that, I thought "Hey, thats a reasonable thing to accuse Nisani for. Lets check gonzaw's filter and see how he interacted with iamp." And it was literally exactly the same thing he was accusing Nisani of.
Like I said, I don't see anything wrong with it.
If I say "Scum always say X" it doesn't mean "Townies never say X".
Again, think of it as "Player Y saying X doesn't contradict him being scum, and based on pragmatics it makes him more likely to be scum based on what I found earlier" instead of "Player Y says X ↔ Player Y is scum"
Also...you can't really compare what I said about iamperfection and what Nisani said as the same thing. Because really they are not, go back and reread both statements we made about him and see the difference.
Here I'll make it simpler for you:
- I acknowledge iamperfection hasn't contributed much and wanted him to do so, but I made an effort in trying to figure out his alignment with the info I had. My "wishy-washy" view on iamperfection is consistent with everything I've been saying up to that point about most players in the game (that they lack content and haven't even tried to contribute to the lynch)
- Nisani acknowledged iamperfection hasn't contributed much and wanted him to do so, but made no effort whatsoever in figuring out his alignment. His "wishy-washy" view on iamperfection is not consistent with his views on other people, i.e it came out of the blue with no context whatsoever, etc
If you want to get subtle there are plenty of differences, which don't make me "scummy as fuck", or at least don't make Nisani more town (really how do you keep ignoring that?)
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On October 02 2012 06:33 Nisani201 wrote:
Gonzaw is someone I'm going to spend some more time looking into. Something feels off about him.
You know Nisani, I would have thought you'd jump into Jingle's wagon against me based on this, but you don't even comment about it, and your last post makes it seem like you aren't even suspicious of me.
Why is that?
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@austin:
So lets go over your main points against me one more time:
1) Early game explanations
But this thread needed to move past setup speculation and into people giving real, meaningful opinions and thoughts that they can be held accountable for.
Why do I need someone else's opinion on my case to make up my own mind about how well Matt defended himself?
You keep saying those two things are mutually exclusive and therefor contradictory. But, first off, Mattchew did give opinions and thoughts (specifically related to me and my case). And second, the only way they would be contradictory is if you think that I said I was satisfied with his explanation and unvoted to shut down all conversation and therefor stop giving opinions. And that's obviously not the case, because 1) its not like the case disappeared just because I unvoted. I just didn't think it was prudent to keep my vote on someone that I didn't particularly think was scum just to force other people to come in and tell me I had a weak case and 2) I even kept discussing it for the next few hours.
Again, read the quote carefully. I said I wanted to thread to move past setup speculation and into giving opinions. I honestly didn't care what the opinions were about. Just anything other than trying to guess how many scum/third party there were.
2) JH thing
On October 01 2012 06:03 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2012 05:59 gonzaw wrote:
At Keirathi:
1)Are you going to start scumhunting soon? When I feel like there's enough for me to make an actual case that I believe in. Until them, I'm content to ask questions and discuss the current goings-on in the thread to build my reads.
On October 02 2012 00:40 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 02 2012 00:36 JingleHell wrote:
, so I'm letting things solidify in my mind and in the thread a bit more before going into hardcore push people mode, How long, exactly, do you plan to wait? Theres only 7.5 hours until the deadline.
For one, how is it scummy to ask someone else something that has been asked to me? It was a valid question when gonzaw asked me, and I felt it was a valid question to ask JH.
At the time, I honestly felt like JH's contributions were lacking. Which is I assume the same reason gonzaw asked that question to me. And I've played with JH once in the past (well, technically I replaced in after he was killed, but point still stands), and in that game he was actively trying to figure the game out. I honestly didn't feel like he was doing that, and making excuses as to why (and again, I never said they were bad excuses. Just excuses. And I understand the feeling, because had I not been killed off in Newbie XXII, I probably would have been scum team MVP as town as well. It was frustrating in hindsight how terrible all of my reads were).
And two, I wasn't attacking him for doing the same thing as me. I was asking him a question and gauging his response. It was late in the day and I felt like his response would go a long way to deciding if I thought he was lurking scum, or being sincere in his excuses. His response felt townie, and I dropped it.
Now, lets go into some hypotheticals, since we know that iamperfection was godfather/JOAT:
If I am scum, why didn't I do more to push a new target? I mean, I was hard defending iamperfection on a meta read, so why wouldn't I have at least attempted to push someone else who had a few votes? Unless you think me, iamperfection, and drazerk are a scumteam and there was no hope of lynching anyone else. But wait, what about JH earlier (whom you said you have a 100% town read on)? He got up to 2 votes at one point, when iamp only had 3.
So basically you think I am a terrible scum who has no regard for his teamate, nor a desire to bus him. That, while being the most active person in the thread, I couldn't be arsed to do more to save the godfather than give a meta read on him, and have a weak case on Nisani. Its not like I was being wishy-washy on iamp. I literally said ever since the first time that he was mentioned that I felt his demeanor was more similar to his town demeanor than his scum demeanor.
I may only have one scum game in my history, but I think its pretty clear if you read it that none of those things would have applied to me in that game.
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\o\
Pictured above: ghost_403 running around with his hair on fire, which is incidentally what he's been doing for the last two days.
Should be around later tonight to actually play some mafia. brb
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More substantive lynch thoughts:
When I look at Drazerk, I still really dislike his votes D1. I dunno, maybe I have high expectations for Drazerk in themed games, but his play feels kind of ... bland? I dunno if that's a big insult in Drazerk-land or not, but
- Keirathi for his early play
- Then backs off and votes snb because they're soulmates and can't read each others minds this game
- Then me for something I've done in the past as town
Leaves his vote there.
For all his talk about purposefully messing with his meta or posting style, this isn't really what I'd expect from either alignment of Drazerk. He's not helping town, but he's not derailing discussion. He's just kind of there. Which seems remarkably un-Drazerk-y?
He doesn't feel like Drazerk until this lightning rod thing. "What if THIS THING is a thing?" Oh, THIS THING? Yeah, that's just something I've mentioned to the host of the game. What if THIS THING, copy cats, etc. are in the game? He says:On October 04 2012 01:29 Drazerk wrote:
Bus drivers copy cats lightning rods and so many more things could exist past this and at the end of the day they may only swap the names on a stupid list.
Behavioral analysis first then focus on roles
but that's during the same day that he's making up roles and asking what if they exist. Only now is he playing his own little game, which is what I expect. The fact that he didn't come out of the gate doing so isn't SCUMMY I guess? It's not as if scummy drazerk doesn't play games, or doesn't play games early. It's just not drazerk-y.
Just feels like that majority of my read on him is not-Drazerk-y, as opposed to somewhere on the townie/scummy spectrum. The voting D1 is scummy to me, but the rest of his play ... isn't?
I think he's serious in sayingOn August 20 2012 10:44 Drazerk wrote:
Theres no real way for me to stop looking like scum with my play style and its why you will need to kill me (I said kill not lynch) before Lylo other whys ill make an awful call at a critical situation and lose town the game or you will all suspect me and lose town the game. But I'd rather kill him later? I think getting a scum lynch D1 allows us to leave Drazerk up a little longer. If he's town, he might be useful at some point, I think a live town Drazerk is an asset somehow in a heavily-themed game, and so I'd rather lynch him another day, especially with him not wrecking the thread this game.
On Nisani,
There's so little there, except that half of his posts come pretty much RIGHT before the D1 deadline. It seems like one point that everyone keeps making in their defense is "Why wouldn't I try to shift the lynch off iamperfection?" And it's a tough one to answer given that he wasn't lynched by a wide margin and seems to have a powerful role.
To some extent, one explanation for why scum wouldn't shift the lynch off iamperfection is that they couldn't? Like...it would look really out of place for Nisani to come into thread before deadline, wave his arms around and try to move votes, when he hadn't been active all day and hasn't said anything about iamperfection. He'd kind of be forced to do what he did, at least as I see it -- come back, post a little, call iamperfection "null," and just chalk it up as a loss. Players with no thread presence being iamperfection's scumbuddies just feels like it's the best answer to the question of why nobody was really trying to save him.
##Vote: Nisani201
Nisani, can you explain this post?On October 03 2012 14:38 Nisani201 wrote:
Gonzaw I like your case on snb. However your case on me makes no sense.
Mattchew you have been making a lot of sense lately. What do you think of snb?
You say nothing about why you like the case on snb or find him scummy. You seem to just be pushing him without getting involved. And you throw the question out to Mattchew, because he's been making sense "lately," when really he hasn't said much/anything since the lynch that was long before this post.
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im going to sleep
oo tired
voting in case i dont wake up by deadline which i dont remember when it is
##vote: nisani
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My last post wasn't very in-depth because I was on my phone and I didn't have much time.
To answer the questions being asked to me:
Gonzaw's case on me is bad because it doesn't really explain why anything I did was scummy. He accuses me of doing certain thing "out of nowhere," but really everything is "out of nowhere." Pretty stupid accusation.
His case on snb is good because he actually pointed out what he did that was scummy: snb's lack of commitment in any of his posts. Even in his recent post he has a bunch of "maybe" reads. Scum don't like to commit.
My thoughts on other players:
Crossfire - I don't really see anything wrong with him, his low activity D1 is understandable because the thread was moving pretty fast (I was having trouble keeping up too).
Ghost - Since perfection wouldn't stop talking about him, I'm going to assume he's town. I also don't really see anything scummy in his filter.
Gonzaw - I take back what I said before about his posts being "off." I was going to look at his past meta and see if there were any differences but I didn't see anything fishy there. He's contributing to town discussion a lot so even if he is scummy (which he isn't), we should hold off on lynching him until later, especially since we have better candidates like snb.
Mattchew - I think he's town because he's been making a lot of sense. His vote on me doesn't make sense however. Can you elaborate please? You can't just quote a post and use that as your basis unless there's something painfully obvious there (which there isn't).
I'll look into austin.
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Nisani continues to struggle to find scum cause he knows people are town... Also snb is probably scum
On phone in between pickup basketball games
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I already said I think drazerk and snb are scum.
I should have voted him in my last post but I didn't so ##Vote strongandbig
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Well Nisani, I'm getting a little wary of S&B because that type of posts may have been made by a busy/non-caring townie, specially when he made similar ones in that other game of his (and that "I had a night action" thing seems weird if he was scum)
If I start thinking about it though, he's the only option left as scum for me (other than Drazerk), so he must be scum too.
But meh, I'm much more certain you are scum since I don't have anything to be "wary" about you being town, you are just not contributing and not caring but you don't even admit it (at least S&B admitted it)., which means you are trying to hide the fact that you do.
Also....the point was to make the case on S&B and then say "Nisani did the same thing as S&B". I guess I should have done it the other way round? I dunno, I didn't really want to repeat myself too many times.
Your "reads" were non-comittal as well (and I already mentioned it when I quoted that "contributions" post of yours).
For fucks sake when will Crossfire or ghost ever come here to do something?
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Ok, I finally got some time to check on this game. I am gonna take a look at what I missed and post my thoughts.
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First things, first. I will say that I still have my same town reads on Mattchew, hiro, and ghost. I explained them in an earlier post but they're basically due to day 1 voting. I still see keirathi as town as well due to activity, boldness, confidence and his posting behavior.
Gonzaw, what's with this whole thing between you and jingle? I'm going to take a closer look at it, but would like to hear your opinion on it.
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Ok, so I don't know if my vision is getting clouded by my opinion on how he's playing, but I think Jingle is kinda playing like a dick. Well i think he's acting like a dick towards gonzaw. His other posts don't seem so bad. He's just constantly attacking gonzaw in a dickish way and his concerns seem to be more petty concerns when compared to the overall view of gonzaw (at least how I see gonzaw). This leads me to see gonzaw as more townie and jingle more scummy.
My other scum reads:
strongandbig: I don't like how he is playing. He hasn't done anything of worth this game or committed to a read on anyone at all except on drazerk, who he has wanted to lynch since day 1. It is the weirdest fixation. Is it possible that he has some role where in order to win, he has to get Drazerk lynched? That would explain why he is only caring about Drazerk, but I don't know if that type of role would exist.
Drazerk: It doesn't seem like he is even trying. He rarely talks about stuff of importance and throws out random one-liners often. He doesn't really give many reads at all. It's like he's observing the game from inside the game. I mean I guess ultimately he's my least confident scum read right now, but I'd still be up for lynching him if other people were on board.
My best scum read, which seems to be similar for a lot of you guys as well is nisani. Gonzaw and Mattchew made some good points, which I agree with. Also, did nisani just claim here + Show Spoiler + On October 04 2012 06:10 Nisani201 wrote:
My last post wasn't very in-depth because I was on my phone and I didn't have much time.
To answer the questions being asked to me:
Gonzaw's case on me is bad because it doesn't really explain why anything I did was scummy. He accuses me of doing certain thing "out of nowhere," but really everything is "out of nowhere." Pretty stupid accusation.
-snipped-
Yeah so that makes nisani my top scum read and very worthy of my vote.
##Vote: Nisani201
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Okay, Nisani is getting quite a lot of votes. If anybody has any objections or thoughts about this this is the time to talk.
Nisani, if you are town you know what you should do right? I'll take your silence and lack of fighting back as surrendering as scum from now on.
On October 04 2012 09:15 Crossfire99 wrote:
First things, first. I will say that I still have my same town reads on Mattchew, hiro, and ghost. I explained them in an earlier post but they're basically due to day 1 voting. I still see keirathi as town as well due to activity, boldness, confidence and his posting behavior.
Gonzaw, what's with this whole thing between you and jingle? I'm going to take a closer look at it, but would like to hear your opinion on it.
Jingle thinks he caught scum in me at first because I was accusing him (basically it was indeed OMGUS at the beginning) and "was wishy-washy" and "didn't care about the lynch" and "he conveniently disappeared before the deadline", which he used as confirmation bias for his previous read on me and made it stronger.
After that it seems he caught momentum and went all out to attack me and ignored everything else in the thread. At this point I changed my read of him to town but started discrediting him so he wouldn't start a shitstorm and bandwagon against me. After that he uses confirmation bias on anything I do, as anything I do "is claiming scum" to him by this point.
It's unlikely he's scum because he's playing the "tunneling townie" part too well; and if he's town I don't think he will stop soon (at least until Nisani flips red hopefully). I'm fine with that since nobody is listening to him, so as long as he doesn't shit up the thread this is fine by me.
I'd really like more contributions from him about other players (in particular Nisani/Drazerk/S&B), just in case so I get a better read of him (since there's a possibility he can be scum), but well, you see I've tried to no avail.
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Hey guys, today we are lynching strongandbig. This is because he is scum.
Because I know most of you are too lazy to go click on his damn filter I will basically be posting all of it here.
First, his intense focus on draz.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 30 2012 22:52 strongandbig wrote:
Why does Drazerk want to lynch survivors day1? On September 30 2012 22:52 strongandbig wrote:
Or at all? On October 01 2012 12:03 strongandbig wrote:
Hey guys
So I'm just checking in
I call Drazerk out for scummy play
He says "I play like this always so you can't call me out for it"
My response: okay so we lynch you for it, you know it's scummy play but you do it anyway.
When is the deadline? On October 01 2012 14:25 strongandbig wrote:
here's what im thinking right now
hiro might be scum because he's posted a lot of small one-liners and asked a bunch of questions but not actually contributed much of anything of his own in terms of reads or analysis.
drazerk might be scum because he switched his read from keirathi to me for little reason. not giving any reason why he unvoted keirathi shows that he doesn't really care about who he votes for, he just wants to push the thread around. he knows that he and i often get into shitfights and it's advantageous for him as scum to try and start one, as long as he thinks i won't be able to push a scum read on him through, which he probably does because he's arrogant. the thing is - his argument works both ways around - he says that I should know he doesn't actually try to win as town, but he focuses on third party, so my calling him out for that makes me scum. The thing is, I call him out for that every game - his attempting to call me out on it this game for being scum makes no sense. he's trying to use circular logic but it backfired.
mattchew is sort of trying to scumhunt. this is very helpful in narrowing down his playstyle. he's either doing his bus-all-the-scum scum routine, or he's actually townie. mattchew very rarely makes up fake scum reads on town players when he's scum, he either posts cases on his teammates or just lurks the shit out of everything. so what that means is you can put a high amount of trust that his reads are genuine - he's either bussing or actually trying to find scum.
crossfire99 - pretty focused on drazerk
nisani - lol. what a "case".
also ##vote: drazerk
I think he's probably scum and I want him out of this game.
He tries to include reads on others but they are mostly pointing out a blatant statement about hiro and a two way read on me. His reasoning for wanting to lynch draz can be basically boiled down to "he voted me which is weird cause normally when we fight he doesnt" which is basically just a scummy way of discrediting someone voting him.
He also calls out (i believe, i cant tell if this is a good or bad thing) crossfire for being pretty focused on draz, when that is exactly what he is doing (draz the centerpiece of every post SNB made to this point). This is most likely extremely hypocritical but I can't say definitively if he is calling cross scum or town from his wording.
Also, I don't believe a town SNB would just brush off a case against him the way he did to Nisani. He may think that but he would normally atleast give it a response to why it sucks instead of just OMGUS'n it.
So basically to this point SNB has offered nothing of value to the thread and focused in on draz without actually providing almost anything that would make someone other than SNB believe he was scum.
Next he is forced to talk about keirathi
+ Show Spoiler +On October 01 2012 14:30 strongandbig wrote:@hiro's question about keirathi's plan so i assume the plan you're talking about is "make a shitty case on purpose to start discussion" ? it's a god-awful plan, the only discussion you'll start is people saying "what a shitty case, you sure you give a fuck this game?" also kenpachi rule lol also keirathi says Show nested quote +"I don't think Drazerk is scummy. I feel like he was just legitimately trying to keep the discussion rolling after I unvoted. You'll notice that I didn't question his motives, I just responded to his questions and kept rolling. He was right to call out my unvote. He's was wrong about my intentions, but it was the right move for a townie." - first drazerk "legitimately trying" as town? you have no fucking clue what you're talking about. second this reads pretty sketchy to me, scum like to ingratiate themselves with townies who are suspicious of them as long as their lynch appears remote. so yeah, keirathi not looking too great to me right now. but i'm not sure about it - i'm actually not sure if you're right to call it a "plan" - sometimes townies do make weak cases right at the start of a day to get the ball rolling. it's just a thing, not a plan or a gambit or whatever. So I think he may not have been thinking to himself, 'i'll make this case as shitty as possible to bait out responses', but he could have been thinking 'this is dead so even though there's nothing to work with i'll do what i can." On October 01 2012 14:33 strongandbig wrote:
oh also keirathi i think you said you have a slight meta-based townread on iamperfection, could you tell us about his meta in your opinion? if you didn't say this then whoever did say this pls answer that question but i think it was keirathi.
He points out things that have already been said in the thread about keirathi's plan being bad. He also refocus's on draz, and then reiterates basically everything I said about the alignment of Keirathi's plan leaving us with no actual read. This wouldn't be so bad if it wasn't the only other person than draz he's really spoken on.
So to this point we have a focus still on draz, and then a idk about me and keirathi.
He then leaves his vote on draz and leaves the thread until after the lynch. This isn't a tell but it should also be noted.
That night (or day? whenever who cares) he posts these 5 points
On October 03 2012 03:11 strongandbig wrote:
Sorry I've been less than up to my standards. Been busy, whatever. /shrugs.
A few thoughts:
1. Because the vote was so close and there were so few ppl on iamperfection, it would not have looked bad for scum to be somewhere else and any scum on iamperfection could relatively easily have switched to avert his lynch. If there was scum on him it was sub-optimal play. Scum do stupid things; I got hammered by my teammates once while I was off playing dota. But in the balance I propose looking away from the iamperfection voters for now.
2. Drazerk's whole play is based around the premise "I refuse to try and look or be townie, so fuck you for trying to analyze me." We should kill him, it's the only sensible town response to that play. Also I think he's scum because he jumps around on votes without a care in the world, and because of that circular reasoning thing from before. Still, I'm not as sure about him as I have been in the past.
3. Getting medium bad vibes from jingle, but I can't put my finger on why.
4. Nisani looks pretty useless - his reasoning for voting Drazerk is pretty dumb IMO and it seems like he's doing some stupidly weak pressure. Like the best he came up with was "too many null reads".
5. I can't remember the last time Austin was scum, any help?
Laters
1. This looks like scum hunting or atleast something, but isn't. He is just pointing out numbers and the situation.
2. More Draz focus. No scum hunting, just pissed off at his playstyle
3. Its hard to come up with real scum hunting on people as scum. This is evident here
4. Another easy shot to take with no actual scum hunting.
5. w.e
Still no actual scum hunting, reads or reasoning for his votes. This is not the SNB that I like to have on the town team with me.
Then we have his last post of "substance"
+ Show Spoiler +On October 04 2012 01:52 strongandbig wrote:
its the latter
also hey guys, i'm back in switzerland
i just got mislynched in the other game i'm in and i'd like that not to happen again. i also haven't slept in something like 30 hours.
im guessing the role list number swapping thing is probably also a bus driver or something.
i read a bunch of filters. i'm not sure if i'm finding the right parts though.
i think austin and gonzaw are maybe town, austin's attempts to explain things at length and reasonably feel well in line both with his town meta and with good townie behavior in general and gonzaw hasn't been tunnelling me even though he could and usually does. that gonzaw reason is a pretty bad reason though.
i still want to kill drazerk. can someone please explain to me why it's okay for him to play like he is?
that said, I think nisani is the best lynch at the moment. his filter just doesn't feel town to me, and i agree with whoever it was who said his little "i am null on iamperfection i want to hear more reads etc" thing sounds like how scum talk about each other when forced to.
also i've thought about it and i think that saying this is a good idea right now: my night action was successful but i don't have complete control over who it targets.
Intro fluff.
He provides some town reads based on meta and feel.
Refocus's to draz's "shitty play"
and then back to nisani, saying "his filter just doesn't feel town to me" but not providing any quotes or actual scum hunting.
then he posts a bunch of fluff about kill draz or nisani, parks his vote again and excuses his deadline absence again.
This entire game, SNB has posted nothing of value in terms of scum hunting or caring about the game in general. He is scum struggling to find ways to post.
##unvote
##vote Strongandbig
and you should too
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brb in like 45 min
read that shiz
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Thanks for the summary, gonzaw.
Also, this post by Mattchew just makes me crack up every time I read it.
On October 04 2012 06:57 Mattchew wrote:
Nisani continues to struggle to find scum cause he knows people are town... Also snb is probably scum
On phone in between pickup basketball games
Mattchew, are you always this blunt?
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On October 04 2012 10:52 Mattchew wrote:
brb in like 45 min
read that shiz
I read it. I agree with you in that I think strong is scum, but is there a reason for voting him over nisani today? Do you now think nisani is no longer scum?
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Mattchew, do you think Nisani could be town?
Also, what was exactly that made you "have a strong town-read" on him initially, and what was your thought process in this huge change of heart of yours?
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lol took the words out of my mouth.
Anyways, I'm happy that the 2 lynch candidates are between Nisani and S&B so I'm not complaining. Hell, like I said maybe both flip scum do today's lynch decision wouldn't even matter.
However, right now we don't know their alignments so we need to take the better course of action so we have to be sure the guy we lynch is scum
Mattchew, do you think that perhaps S&B is very busy or doesn't care about the game as town? He's acting "too obvious" in that aspect, he admits himself he's not caring about the game and "having an off week at mafia", and it's obvious he's not playing like he uses to when town (or maybe even when scum, but I only barely skimmed that game where he was scum).
I would have thought he'd try a little bit harder as scum.
On that aspect Nisani seems to be playing like I'd expect a "low-profile" scum, specially one with the style of play of Nisani
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EPT
