EPTI'll be off to bed soon and will probably be at work until late tomorrow. Sometime between now and then I'll check through Kushm4sta's filter to see what sort of associative tells I can get. Until then, glhf everyone.
Newbie Mini Mafia XXVIII
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
I'll be off to bed soon and will probably be at work until late tomorrow. Sometime between now and then I'll check through Kushm4sta's filter to see what sort of associative tells I can get. Until then, glhf everyone. | ||
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I'm still not sold on Debears yet. Every time people push him as a lynch and everyone just nods along and agrees (this is based on a cursory ready through 30+ pages of filter late at night, so pardon me if I'm totally wrong about this), I get a wierd feeling in the pit of my stomach. Why? Because scum is already down one, there is almost zero chance they'd accede easily to a second consecutive bus. So if everyone is nodding along on Debears, and scum isn't going to roll over and bus again, then, WIFOM as this reasoning is, it doesn't seem reasonable that Debears should be scum. Alsn, however, feels scummy to me. Why?
All four points are not damning guilt in and of themselves. But combined, they point a pretty compelling picture of a scum Alsn. Right now he's my strongest read and as such ##Vote Alsn However, he's only a moderate scumread. Depending on what happens between now and when I check in the thread in about 16 or 17 hours, I might change my mind. | ||
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## Vote debears Heading out for the night. If I don't make it back by daypost, cop please check omni or remedy and remember it is possible GF is last mafia. That's all, glhf. | ||
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Shady Sands
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On October 03 2012 13:12 debears wrote: @Shady If you believe I'm the last scum, why wouldn't you nightcheck me? Why should I? It wastes a nightcheck on someone I'm certain is scum. | ||
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##FoS Z-Boson | ||
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On October 05 2012 16:41 Z-BosoN wrote: This is very intriguing... Thanks for that post SS, it brought out some very interesting reactions. Of course, your case is laughable, as usual. Of course, as scum, I would want to switch my vote towards a townie, in favor of, let's see, another townie. I will definitely bother producing a fuckton of text just for that. Anyways, djodref managed to be even worse. Please reread your points against me, and think of how they could come from me as scum. Think about what your FOS accomplishes for town here today. I'll be accepting donations to make up for you making my eyes bleed. If Omni doesn't answer, it's either debears/djodref/SS imo. Pointless lynching a modkill. Will decide come tomorrow, I gotta go sleep. SDM, I'd love to know your input on who you'd rather lynch save Omni. I'm sleepy as hell and will go to sleep, but probably during class tomorrow I'm gonna make up my mind. RSC, same thing. Gnight! This is exactly the sort of post which I don't like seeing from Z-Boson. Let's see what it does for him here: 1) It makes him look pro-town without contributing independent analysis 2) It lets him potentially join a wagon on nearly anyone in the town without looking suspicious 3) It puts all the onus for scumhunting on other people while not putting his own neck out for anyone 4) It lets him have an excuse to get the last word in/join a wagon late without his timing looking suspicious at all | ||
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1) ZB's behavior toward Kush during D1 2) Why ZB is losing focus on Debears Now let's go back to Z-Boson's words during the Kush meltdown: First a soft defense: I'm not against a kush lynch atm, but from what I gather kush's case is mostly meta-based with a side dish of not-scumhunting and also general scummy-looking posts. I think my evidence against debear is much more damning. Please read carefully his posts and my case and see if you don't agree. Then somehow But oh they can. Scum can't genuinely scumhunt, and will usually make mistakes in doing so. This early in the game, debears has managed to quickly change his mind about pursuing scum not once, but twice. Him just forgetting all about Djoref and basically assuming him to be town was just ??SDFG ?A?SDF?A?SDF?. His inconsistencies to me look more scummy then townie, especially when looking at how repetitive his arguments are. Who do you think is a better lynch then, kush? Grace us with a case. He asks Kush for a case And then he keeps asking Kush for cases http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16400584 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16400729 While still soft-defending Kush: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16400743 Still trying to "redeem" Kush http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16400878 etc. etc. What is important here is not what Z-Boson is saying to Kush, but how he's saying it: Z-Boson is treating Kush with some degree of good faith while maintaining skepticism of other posters. This is really what's really strange. At first, I didn't think in a 3-scum setup 2 of the scum could band together so obviously, but after realizing that Lesrah was basically AFK/a potential modkill, then it makes sense: Z-Boson is actually doing everything he can to save the scumteam since one of their members is already gone, and it's showing through in his posts to Kush. The second part of this case comes about from Z-Boson's case on Debears. The case starts D1, and it starts very strong, so much so that ZB was pushing it over the Kush wagon, but then Z-B somehow is willing to ditch it (after a long explanatory post, of course) for an Alsn wagon. Then Alsn is mislynched. Now ZB is flinging accusations everywhere at the rest of town without focusing back on Debears. This makes no sense to me, since if Debears is ZB's top read other than the Alsn mislynch wagon which he joined, why isn't he refocusing on his original read? Answer: because ZB doesn't want Debears townie alignment revealed, obviously, since that would reveal him as pushing a mislynch from D1 and hurt his towncred, which is a vital resource for scum if they want to survive from a 7-1 situation through to LYLO. This is the second deeper point here: every single post from ZB hasn't necessarily been to advance the scumhunt, but rather generate a lot of noise so as to improve ZB's towncred. Read his filter and see if ZB is actually putting his money where his mouth is, or whether he's just making the right noises to not get lynched himself. At this point, I'm very convinced that ZB is scum. So should you. ##Vote Z-Boson | ||
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On October 05 2012 20:27 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: You haven't even clarified why you voted Debears. I voted Alsn?? | ||
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ebwop I see what you mean here. I voted Debears because he was playing scummy, and because other than him, there was no good lynch candidate. But if Z-Boson is scum, then Debears can't be, and it makes me view the case on Debears (a large part of which came from ZB) in a new light. Does that make sense? | ||
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On October 05 2012 20:36 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Besides you voted Debears after Alsn had flipped green. If you think Alsn's green flip means Debears can't be scum, why did you vote on him? Because I skimmed the thread as opposed to reading everyone's filters closely enough. I fucked up and went for the easy case as opposed to actually doing some digging of my own. | ||
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On October 05 2012 20:37 Djodref wrote: So why shouldn't we lynch debears first to have his alignment ? I think we can have a consensus today on debears and hopefully Omni gets modkilled. What do you think about this proposition ? I'd rather we lynch Z-B first. If Debears flips green and scum whack me or someone who's pushing the Z-B lynch then there's always a chance he can sway the rest of town and slip out of their grasp. If Z-B flips green it's still likely that town can secure a Debears lynch no matter what. | ||
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On October 05 2012 20:39 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: But it still makes no sense to me. You assume Boson is scum, thus Debears can't be scum and thus Boson must be scum. Your assumption is your conclusion. No I know Alsn is town. I know ZB is trying to avoid pushing hard for a Debears lynch D2/3 even though he pushed a Debears lynch D1. Thus ZB's case on Debears feels insincere. Thus most of the case on Debears gets thrown out by me. At the same time, I ask why ZB would want to push for a D1 Debears lynch even over Kush. Answer: Save Kush since Lesrah is AFK. I also ask why ZB would suddenly back away D2/D3. Answer: Avoid having town realize that the D1 push on Debears was a mislynch, accrue towncred, survive till endgame. I cannot find any townie motivation why ZB would flip from pushing Debears over Kush D1 to accepting Alsn D2 and FoSing half the town over Debears D3. | ||
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On October 05 2012 20:43 Z-BosoN wrote: LOL. Shady. Omg. Right now I'm trying to figure out if: A) shady's vote on me is too retarded to come from scum. B) shady's vote on me is retarded enough for him to be scum. Its not that I was wrong about alsn. Its that I want town cred. Actually the main reasons I'm less suspicious of debears I've already stated. I don't think his actions are necessarily scum-motivated. He also tried convincing kush to stop his antiques, and I don't see him doing that outside the QT to draw attention to himself. Its called reconsidering, not "I want to lynch a townie so as to not lynch a townie" shitfest you have going on. Going by experience, everytime I've seriously felt like punching you silly, you were town. That only leaves djodref. Expect some heat buddy. Your fos of me was hella weird. You FoS'd half the town in your last few posts. Now you focus on Djodref for OMGUS? | ||
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On October 05 2012 20:51 Z-BosoN wrote: That's maybe because I changed my mind? Gj knowing alsn is town btw. You must be smart. Except the way you changed your mind makes no sense at all. You say my case is laughable/silly then you say you'd be okay voting me. Then you say that every time you want to punch me for being silly, my meta indicates I'm town, but now you'd be fine voting Djodref because he agrees with my case and you don't understand it. | ||
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On October 06 2012 07:15 Z-BosoN wrote: However, we still have three lynches till defeat. debears -> shady -> Djodref should seal us the game. I cannot for the life of me view SDM and RSC as scum right now. If one of you is, well, well played, win deserved. Now all it takes is for town to put on reality goggles, realize why it is dumb for me to be scum, and seal the deal. Why are you pushing for lynch trains already when no one on your list has flipped yet? All that does is give scum an easy way to NK people who everyone thinks is confirmed townie to setup the best LYLO situation possible. On the RCs: A cop RC is barely worth more than a Mason/Confirmed Townie RC at this point, since it's likely the last remaining scum is GF/Framer. Likewise, a vet RC is essentially a null tell, because if there is a GF/Framer, there is no reliable way to check ZB. (If there is a GF, Z-Boson might be a false negative; if there is a Framer, ZB might be a false positive). What seals the deal in terms of ZB's further scumminess is how he thinks Debears and or me are the last medic, and are inviting us to claim. That just smells to me like a blue-sniping attempt. Remember at this point scum have to kill the medic fast, or else the game is over for them. Finally, I am deeply dissatisfied with a no-lynch. In a situation where the last scum is trying to stay hidden, no-lynching is exactly what they want since they never have to "put their money where their mouth is" in terms of losing towncred by pushing a mislynch. I am going to repeat this to everyone: at this point I do not see how you can a) assign any weight to ZB's vet claim or b) view the rest of his filter as anything but scum. ##Vote Z-Boson | ||
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On October 06 2012 08:10 debears wrote: Why would you say you were vote switching among townies when you think I'm certain scum or shady is? Definite scumslip ##vote z-boson Wait, I didn't see this coming in. Wow. Yeah, everyone who is still on the fence about ZB: READ THE ABOVE TEXT PLEASE | ||
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On October 06 2012 08:58 debears wrote: I rescind my arguments. ##unvote ##vote shadysands Got him. Jumped way too easily on that fake scumslip claim What? LOL | ||
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On October 06 2012 09:12 debears wrote: My argument was illogical. You jumped on it. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=353315¤tpage=38#745 Finding scumslips in a "if-i-was-scum" statement is exactly how Ange found the first scumteam member in XXII. That moment pretty much saved the town in that game. That's why I agreed with you. | ||
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On October 06 2012 09:25 debears wrote: But how do you explain the lack of a nk day 1? You don't believe his claim? There arent any kind of counter claims of a medix protect or another vet. You make an illogical statment about his veteran claim and jump on an illogical scumslip. Why would a medic counter claim in this situation, debears? A medic would only counter claim if he/she felt that it was necessary to get Z-Boson lynched over another candidate, and only after spending time thinking about it. Z-B rc'd when there was less than an hour to go before the lynch deadline, and he remains a likely candidate for a lynch today. Indeed, if a medic counter claimed, it would be poor play, because that would open himself up for an easy NK and without a confirmed red to trade for it. After all, it would be trivial for ZB to claim that even though the medic had saved someone, the hit still landed on him; there would be no way for the third person who was saved to show that he had been saved (especially if that third person was DP or Alsn.) | ||
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On October 06 2012 13:34 Djodref wrote: @Shady Yeah, I would especially like to have your input on this list. Please take a good look at this list and think about it calmly  Then answer the following questions: Do you believe my cop claim ? If not, why ? Do you believe Z-BosoN veteran claim ? If not, why ? In spite of how useless they are in Mafia, I like lists in general so I'll respond to this. I believe you are cop, until someone counterclaims. I do not believe Z-Boson is veteran. | ||
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On October 06 2012 13:43 Djodref wrote: Also SDM was pretty sure that Omni was the last mafia at this time. Which is why he didn't want to risk another mislynch I guess. I would be so happy if debears is the last maf ^^ I've been tunneling him so hard... @Shady Forget Z-Boson for a while. What do you think of debears to be the last scum ? If Z-Boson flips town, then Debears is probably the last scum. | ||
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On October 06 2012 13:52 debears wrote: Actually if zbo is town, you are likely the last scum shady : p And why would that be the case? | ||
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On October 06 2012 22:29 Djodref wrote: And now here is my analysis of Shady's filter ! His actions pretty much speak for themselves Please notice first how Corrosion's leaves the thread with a no-lynch vote. I think this move was advised by the mafia coach to let all options open for the replacement when he comes into the thread. So let's look at Shady's first real post. My comments are in red bold font in the spoiler. + Show Spoiler + On October 02 2012 16:21 Shady Sands wrote: So at this point I have a moderate scum read on Alsn and strong town read on Darthpunk. Picks up Alsn as a target while distancing himself from the lynch I'm still not sold on Debears yet. Every time people push him as a lynch and everyone just nods along and agrees (this is based on a cursory ready through 30+ pages of filter late at night, so pardon me if I'm totally wrong about this), I get a wierd feeling in the pit of my stomach. Why? Because scum is already down one, there is almost zero chance they'd accede easily to a second consecutive bus. So if everyone is nodding along on Debears, and scum isn't going to roll over and bus again, then, WIFOM as this reasoning is, it doesn't seem reasonable that Debears should be scum. Alsn, however, feels scummy to me. Why?
The points add nothing new. He is clearly sheeping right now (as a lot of us did). I'm quite sure he did pick Alsn over Debears because he was afraid of Alsn potential in the future of the game. All four points are not damning guilt in and of themselves. But combined, they point a pretty compelling picture of a scum Alsn. Right now he's my strongest read and as such ##Vote Alsn However, he's only a moderate scumread. Depending on what happens between now and when I check in the thread in about 16 or 17 hours, I might change my mind. Distancing himself and disappear And comes back just to vote on debears with this post First of all, he doesn't give any kind of reasonable explanations for his vote. He is just sheeping on our previous cases on him which he was not buying yet, as he stated on his previous post. Plus, I'm sure now that I've found a serious scumslip in this post. I've checked all filters carefully and the few mentions of a cop role that I saw were referring to the game where DarthPunk was cop. Before him, nobody has ever mentioned nor imagined the possibility of a cop. At this time, he is the only one with me who know that we are playing a cop setup because he is the Godfather ! Please also notice how he wants me to check Omni or Remedy rather than Debears. He knows that Debears is town and doesn't want the cop to defend him the following day. Unfortunately, things don't go according to his plan during D3. Except me, nobody wants to lynch Debears anymore. And the focus is starting to get very close to him again (Omni and SS were the candidates for the second edition for the battle for the noose which never happened). He decided to confuse everybody by doing this I fall into his evil trap and town goes scatter. We need two consecutive blue claims to avoid a mislynch, SDM brain has exploded, Z-Boson is super angry. Debears and me are running in circles. But now it is the end, the last scum is going to fall. So, Shady, how about you concede ? Obviously since you're dead I can't really respond to you. First, I assumed the existence of a cop because I thought the N1 kill was stopped by a medic or JK. In all the newbie games I played in the past, every time there was a medic/jk, there was either a cop or mason(s) to go along with it. Second, how is me accusing Z-Boson in any way helpful to me surviving as the last scum? Think about it for a second: as the last scum, I want to be as non-controversial yet active as possible. Me accusing Z-Bo and then going AFK means that I accomplish neither. Why wouldn't I just lurk quietly or try and agree with everyone else on the popular lynch candidate (debears?) Moreover, if I was scum, and I was trying to mislynch Z-Bo, I should have started backing off as soon as you were wagoning me because then it would quickly become apparent I led a mislynch. But I haven't done any of this. Instead, I've stuck with a highly controversial scumread at the cost of what (little) towncred I had entering the game. Does this fit with what the last scum would do? Third: If I am GF, then why would I kill you? You wouldn't be able to check me, you'd be as useless as a hanging paperweight in that instance. Why wouldn't I kill someone who is held up as a confirmed townie, like Stutters, instead of you, who is on several lynch lists anyhow? Fourth: now that you're dead I'm going to do a 180 on the Z-Bo case. I am not the medic, and I doubt a medic exists in this game. If there was a medic you'd be the obvious save and you wouldn't be dead. Hence Z-Bo's vet claim makes sense (notwithstanding him talking about how likely it was that there was a medic). Ergo, if Z-Bo is vet then the last scum is probably between me and debears. Fifth: why Debears? The guy has been trying to agree with people without pushing substantial independent cases for two complete cycles now. First he wagons Alsn (admittedly, all of us did), then he pushes lists of candidates which have little analysis tied to any one suspect, then flip flops between me and Z-Bo in accusing each other with a weak "fakeclaim scumslip trap" which ironically is a pretty good piece of evidence against Z-Bo. Fifth: so now I'm going to urge everyone to consolidate on either me or debears to figure this out. If this means I have to vote for myself to get a lynch as opposed to a no-lynch, then so be it. But for now, I'm going to ##Vote debears since I think he's still a lot scummier than I am. | ||
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Shady Sands
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On October 07 2012 07:51 Z-BosoN wrote: This game is pretty much over. Djo dying is evidence there's not medic, as I was assuming due to a highly presumptuous DarthPunk. It also makes sense role-wise. That being so, there shouldn't be a shred of doubt I'm actually a veteran. Debears, just concede man. Pointless to keep on playing. Just a tip for the next game: one of the reasons why I disbelieved your initial claim that you were a vet was that you waited so long to do it. While it makes sense to make scum feel uncertain at the existence or non-existence of a medic, after DP died scum would probably think that there was no medic anyhow. That's why your RC timing didn't make a lot of sense to me and hence why your entire RC didn't make a lot of sense to me. | ||
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On October 07 2012 14:45 Z-BosoN wrote: lol, giving a tip are you? I don't get why you even play this game. You don't read, you don't think and worst of all, show no will to improve. How do you think "placing my vote on you and will go afk in the next 17h and nothing will change my mind lololol" is either A) townie or B) a good mindset to have? I waited so long to do it because I got shot n1. Why would I claim, what does this info add? Scum wouldn't target me again in case I could have been SK (or thought so at the time, didn't realize there were no such thing in this setup). I was forced to claim because of a shit words-cannot-describe retard wagon on me. If you RC and let us know there is no medic, it helps town play immensely... for example, Djo claimed cop thinking there was a medic to save him. He died for it. | ||
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On October 08 2012 12:31 debears wrote: O.o that was ss. Ill conced on th zbo thing. However, ss will be in th spotlight, considering he is the other main lynch candidate. But you haven't had it. And your scum defense of not looking at my filter and not voting me are terrible lol wow. yeah, just concede | ||
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On October 08 2012 12:54 debears wrote: Wow shady. Are you even reading the thread? You dont find sdms actions suspicious at all? No, he's legitimately defending himself against your accusations. You're just flinging mud everywhere in the hopes that it sticks | ||
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On October 09 2012 08:04 Z-BosoN wrote: So SDM, why should we lynch shady and not RSC? I dunno, rereading the filters, I'm starting to have a bad townie feel on corrosion. However, RSC also gives me a town feel. And there's no way you are scum so wtf is going on lol Find anything interesting in the filters? Z-Bo, NK will put us at LYLO. Why are you so eager to force SDM to spill his views on everyone else? | ||
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