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On October 02 2012 16:21 Shady Sands wrote:So at this point I have a moderate scum read on Alsn and strong town read on Darthpunk. I'm still not sold on Debears yet. Every time people push him as a lynch and everyone just nods along and agrees (this is based on a cursory ready through 30+ pages of filter late at night, so pardon me if I'm totally wrong about this), I get a wierd feeling in the pit of my stomach. Why? Because scum is already down one, there is almost zero chance they'd accede easily to a second consecutive bus. So if everyone is nodding along on Debears, and scum isn't going to roll over and bus again, then, WIFOM as this reasoning is, it doesn't seem reasonable that Debears should be scum.Alsn, however, feels scummy to me. Why? - First, his activity and "choppiness" is way higher than in the last newbie game I played with him, where he flipped town. That game, I was scum, and I whacked him N1 because his analysis was so dead-on, accurate, and well-composed--we actually placed killing him at a higher priority than trying to snipe our top cop read. I don't get that feeling with Alsn this game. Alsn's analysis has been much, much weaker than I usually give him credit for. But overall, meta is a weak way to read a player. Much stronger...
- ...is his reasoning regarding the Kush switch. He was one of the last to go to Kush and tried to appear as reluctant and thoughtful as possible. He also tried to subtly denigrate the worth of a Kush flip
First, I'd like to start things with stating so far D1 has pretty much lived up to my exact nightmare scenario that I speculated about when arguing with DP yesterday. Everyone is voting kush with only very little discussion about any other topic(mainly, the debears-boson exchange).
While we might just think he was being reluctant, part of me thinks Alsn posted like this because it was the only way out of a bad situation. Alsn went to sleep at 03:50, when no one had voted anyone yet. Then wakes up 14 hours and several pages later with a massive wagon forming on scum Kush. At this point, if Alsn was scum, he'd be stuck in a terrible spot: he needs to somehow look like he's been convinced into voting Kush. So he does do this, with a pretty WIFOM starting post that gets pressured and then gives him the ladder he needs to climb down to a kush vote. All in all a pretty neat play... but one that feels just a little too much like play-acting rather than genuine scumhunting for me to like it.
- Contrast his reads on Kush with his posts on Debears. Before he switches to Kush, he says he did soul searching and hard thinking and found no one as a better lynch. Then all of a sudden, on D2, when there's a fresh slate to push a new lynch, he starts using Debears' D1 posts as evidence that points to scumminess. This is wierd. Why didn't Alsn publish this beforehand? There is no motivation for a town Alsn to change his mind on cut and dry evidence in this fashion.
- Finally, and this is pure speculation unless a medic/JK comes out and claims an action on DP, the fact that there is no NK might mean that medic/JK saved the obvious confirmed townie (DP) and scum tried to kill him. This is wierd play if scum knows it's likely DP was going to be saved. This means something that DP did during night spooked scum. DP accused Alsn during the night.
All four points are not damning guilt in and of themselves. But combined, they point a pretty compelling picture of a scum Alsn. Right now he's my strongest read and as such ##Vote AlsnHowever, he's only a moderate scumread. Depending on what happens between now and when I check in the thread in about 16 or 17 hours, I might change my mind.
This would be true, except that only 4 out of 12 people have agreed on debears looking scummy (now 3). It still is a lot more than alsn though, so that's definitely a thought. What do you think of the RSC/Omniscient duo?
Also, I don't understand if you are replacing Lesh or corrosion, you say one thing, mod says another..
And lynch happens in less than 12 hours.... 15-17 hours = nighttime. Hopefully you can check in before then.
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EBWOP by a lot, read a little
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Holy crap, just realized that after a long long time being inactive, stutters just massively repeated my first post case against Alsn. Really, really weird.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 02 2012 07:43 Stutters695 wrote:I'm really suspicious of Alsn. Again red is for emphasis inside of the spoilers. His second post of the game he puts a FoS on Kush. + Show Spoiler [FoS on Kushm4sta] +On September 28 2012 17:56 Alsn wrote:Wow, upon reading the thread I realise that kush has been following the exact pattern I just now specified to be the way not to play if he wanted to absolve himself in my eyes. In fact, I could go back to my initial posts to him in NMMXXV saying almost the exact same thing. As such, I think I have no choice but to cast a: FoS kushm4stakush, in order for me to let up, I want you to stop it with your ridiculous knee-jerk play and actually point out why you think other people are scummy as opposed to why you yourself is so obviously town. While the following idiom is quite ironic in a forum game, actions speak louder than words and you defending yourself is just that, meaningless words. Start proving to everyone that you are concerned with finding scum instead of worrying about your silly streak. That being said, I think everyone else is jumping the gun here, kush is an extremely easy target to pick on, especially since he almost never seems to think before he posts. The scumslip that Darth and others pointed out can definitely be seen as damning. However, I am not inclined to agree with the following post from Darth: Show nested quote +On September 28 2012 13:46 DarthPunk wrote:I am not flaming Kush. I am legitimately scum hunting. The contrast in this situation, to the one with shiao, are so stark that there is no point even bringing it up. You will know when I am flaming when you see it, and even then it is not really that big a scum tell. I can tell the difference between Scummy town and actual scum, and it is not 'illogical' to be able to do this. Kush right now is not scummy town. He has slipped HUGELY. He is conforming to his previous scum meta. Seriously...
There is no explanation for his town read on me. The only reason he would say that is if he was scum. This last part seems to overly simplify the matter to me. The only reason? I myself can see a few reasons, but I would like kush to reply himself before I comment further as I don't want to give him an easy out. I can state for the record that unless kush shapes up considerably, I'm all in favour of lynching him. Simply because him playing like his normal self would be a liability for town later on due to his inclination to just defend himself over hunting scum. However, I definitely want to give him the benefit of the doubt and allow him to actually try and show that he has town's best interest in mind. So until then, while I definitely would like everyone to share their reads on kush so far, that is not enough for D1. We need to start exploring different possibilities because if we decide to lynch kush and he flips green, spending all of D1 talking about him will put us back at square one minus two townies. I'll make another post within an hour or two on another topic as I think I've made myself perfectly clear on where I stand on kush, but right now I need breakfast. The most important thing to focus on from this is even when he FoSes Kush he states that he thinks everyone is jumping the gun, but if Kush doesn't shape up his posting he is ok with lynching him. This post and the next one are what made me go WTF. Show nested quote +On September 29 2012 18:17 Alsn wrote:
First, I'd like to start things with stating so far D1 has pretty much lived up to my exact nightmare scenario that I speculated about when arguing with DP yesterday. Everyone is voting kush with only very little discussion about any other topic(mainly, the debears-boson exchange).
Looking at the vote count, the last official count says 7, and now corrosion added his vote for a total of 8. With myself that would be 9, the exact number of town in this game. From my point of view, unless kushm4sta, Djodref and Lesrah are the 3 scum, there are scum pushing this lynch.
Given that, I'm really starting to dislike this lynch. I agree however that kush has been mostly concerned with defending himself against perceived injustice rather than actually trying to hunt scum, this still does not convince me that he is scum. Lynching scum with an overwhelming majority D1 just seems like way too improbably. Sure, if we had to fight tooth and nail to get 7 votes, I might buy it, but that's not the case. It seems to me there must be scum sheeping onto this lynch.
Like I've stated before I can go along with the kush lynch, but I'd rather try and lynch my top scum read at this point and with the current developments, I see a kush lynch more as a last resort than my main scum read. Unfortunately, this argument is only available to people who have yet to vote and are town, as well as to scum since other than myself only scum are aware of my alignment. For everyone else, the "unless a, b and c are scum" argument will include me.
My argument is at least enough to convince myself, so I'll be scouring the thread for the next couple of hours to see if my "gut scum reads" so far have any merit and if so push that/those case(s) instead. If it turns out that they are going nowhere, I will vote kush. But I still feel we have enough time to at least have a discussion on the topic of "just wtf is going on here?!". So now that the game has dragged on and Kush's play has deteriorated, what happened to "unless kush shapes up considerably, I'm all in favour of lynching him." ? You also say you'd rather try and lynch your top scumread (first red highlight) but up until this post you haven't posted a single scum read. The best you've done is questioned Z-Boson until you dropped it over time. Why are you suggesting we should have lynched someone else without posting a case or even who you are suspicious of? Additionally who were those "gut scum reads" you mentioned? Going forward to where you + Show Spoiler [Voting for Kushm4sta] +On September 29 2012 21:15 Alsn wrote:
I've been doing some soul searching and I'm starting to agree that it's not worth it to try and push any other cases right now.
Mostly because my entire premise was that I was thinking it to be unlikely for kush to be scum. I realise that after trying to put into words why I think that is so, I have nothing other than the fact that I "feel" him to be town, which is a really stupid reason for absolving him. I thought I could back it up by saying he's been pressured to hard, there's no way he's responsible for not scum hunting. But in the end, I can't find a logical reason to forgive him if I exclude my own gut feeling from the equation.
I think now that my best option is to hold on to whatever small reads I have(because while I have some suspicions, I don't think they are rock solid) until after the lynch is over. Because at least then, we will have more information.
So for now, although my gut is screaming at me, I'll commit to voting for kush, mostly because most of what I said about BosoN has returned somewhat satisfactory answers, I really don't like the way a lot of people got away with not basically posting anything at all(I'm looking at you, Djodref, corrosion, Omniscient, RemedySC). I think that's probably what irks me the most, the thing I was most hoping would not happen, did happen.
##Vote: kushm4sta Now I'm a little confused with his logic. With his vote the lynch is essentially finished (if scum wanted to last minute switch they'd be giving themselves away and it would be GG) but instead of sharing any of his reads (his gut feelings or his top scumread) he decides he should wait til after the lynch to share any "reads". Doesn't this directly go against his "we need to start exploring different possibilities"? He even listed four lurkers he could have pressured them throughout the day, but instead he argued with DP about Kush (whom we shouldn't focus entirely on according to Alsn). His whole day 1 posting is scummy as hell to me and reeks of someone who tried to help defend Kush before Kush melted down and tried to retroactively justify this defense through maintaining that stance. His case on debears is a good contribution (at first glance, I haven't read it in context of the thread yet) but I want to see how he explains his contradictions and false promises from day 1.
He's not a realistic lynch choice for today, but until he can actually be more useful
##FoS Stutters
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Well, debears, mentioning you are suspicious of someone doesn't exactly mean much.
I'm glad most of the town agrees with what I figured as I was making my wall of text post. Alsn's play is extremely scummy this game. I still would have preferred a debears lynch, but when I took the time to read his meta from his previous town game, it just felt like a completely different person.
I just can't view Alsn being town. He was inconsistent as fuck, his meta is absurdly off, and some of his gameplay is just way too scum-oriented. I will be very, very impressed if he actually turns up town.
That being said, much to debear's delight
##Vote Alsn
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Godamnit, everything made sense with you being scum.
Thanks for sticking through Alsn, and hope that in the future you can get clearer reads. In LVII I was exactly like you, I spent a ton of time reading and trying to figure out who was scum and who wasn't, and ended it up with nothing. This game I did the same thing, but I managed to have clearer reads - yet still wrong one(s). Goes to show we all have a lot to improve. Saving the rest for post-game.
It sucks that we got the second gift-wrapped scum this game. Feels completely without merit.
Ok, it is likely that we have a jailkeeper or a roleblocker. Stop debears cold and see if that still results in a NK. I don't want the risk of spending the rest of day 3 going for a false lead.
Debears aside, my top scum-reads are Omniscient and Stutters. Too passive, too useless, too sheepy. RemedySC I've yet to go through the filter. Djo seems cute and townie, Shady Sands is too quiet for someone coming off a naturally suspicious-looking person. All this is off the top of my head, like I said, I still have some filters to look through.
Godamnit I'm sad =[
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Yea I've played with stutters before. I remember him having more insightful posts though. If you look carefully he hasn't made any real contribution since more than a day or two.
Anyways, I sure hope debears is scum. I'm going to feel very silly if both of them end up being town.
Don't disappear guys
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DP I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss stutters.
I'm @ school so its hard to be useful atm, but game is leaning heavily in our favor. Like I said, rb/jail debears and we should be fine. Its a high possibility that the last scum is godfather, and that would make things a bit difficult. Medic would be wise to save me, dp or sdm.
I just want the info that debears is/isnt scum!
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On October 03 2012 23:59 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:Show nested quote +On October 03 2012 23:35 DarthPunk wrote:
I will vote debears if I am alive. alsn flipping town does not mean Debears is town. Although with Lesrah being red I could see scum Being a lurker. That being said I implore you to look at Shady and Djodref as they are the two other candidates that look scummiest IMO. I was starting to get a town vibe from Djo but Shady, Remedy, Omni and Djo all needs to be looked into in detail. I'm having a sneaking suspicion that Omni won't be the only one who'll come off as scummy.
come off as scummy I'm sure a lot of people will. Alsn, for example, did. We just gotta learn to differentiate them from townie scummy and scummy scummy 
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On October 04 2012 00:20 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On October 03 2012 23:54 Z-BosoN wrote:
DP I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss stutters.
I'm @ school so its hard to be useful atm, but game is leaning heavily in our favor. Like I said, rb/jail debears and we should be fine. Its a high possibility that the last scum is godfather, and that would make things a bit difficult. Medic would be wise to save me, dp or sdm.
I just want the info that debears is/isnt scum! Dude he was one part of the driving force behind the kush lynch. He along with SDM were the ones to resurrect it after I gave it up as a lost hope. Also he is conforming to his town meta with his Drop posts into afk. Meh it is possible that he is scum but I find it highly unlikely. Djo and shady seems scumm as hell to me. If I survive I will make a case on them. I know what I am looking at. I would do it now but I left it to too late and it is 1 am and I have uni tomorrow ^_^ So please read their filters critically. Of course Roleblock whoever, but we don't know if we have a role blocker so we should not rely on it. Anyway. Follow SDM. That is my call if I die and you feel that you must sheep.
Like I said, I wouldn't be quick to dismiss him. But if you read his kush arguments, it's also pretty much nothing new. There is such a thing as bussing, you know.
The reason why I think this makes SDM town but not stutters is that SDM added new meta-related arguments, which is totally hardcore to do if he's a bussing scum, which I don't think is what happened.
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If someone gets saved by the medic, will they know about it?
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On October 04 2012 00:30 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On October 04 2012 00:27 Z-BosoN wrote:On October 04 2012 00:20 DarthPunk wrote:On October 03 2012 23:54 Z-BosoN wrote:
DP I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss stutters.
I'm @ school so its hard to be useful atm, but game is leaning heavily in our favor. Like I said, rb/jail debears and we should be fine. Its a high possibility that the last scum is godfather, and that would make things a bit difficult. Medic would be wise to save me, dp or sdm.
I just want the info that debears is/isnt scum! Dude he was one part of the driving force behind the kush lynch. He along with SDM were the ones to resurrect it after I gave it up as a lost hope. Also he is conforming to his town meta with his Drop posts into afk. Meh it is possible that he is scum but I find it highly unlikely. Djo and shady seems scumm as hell to me. If I survive I will make a case on them. I know what I am looking at. I would do it now but I left it to too late and it is 1 am and I have uni tomorrow ^_^ So please read their filters critically. Of course Roleblock whoever, but we don't know if we have a role blocker so we should not rely on it. Anyway. Follow SDM. That is my call if I die and you feel that you must sheep. Like I said, I wouldn't be quick to dismiss him. But if you read his kush arguments, it's also pretty much nothing new. There is such a thing as bussing, you know. The reason why I think this makes SDM town but not stutters is that SDM added new meta-related arguments, which is totally hardcore to do if he's a bussing scum, which I don't think is what happened. I seriously doubt that scum would have bussed when the case was dead in the water. DAY ONE. and been the very first to do so. Like I said not 100% but certainly not a leading candidate. or even close to being one.
As far as I recall, I don't think stutters brought the case out of the water. I agree that he wouldn't make a good d3 lynch candidate, but claiming him town? No way.
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b4 you go, now is a good time to tell us if you got any pms during the day regarding medic saves.
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AH, nvm, so you did.
Do you know if it was medic or JK?
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On October 04 2012 00:39 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On October 04 2012 00:32 Z-BosoN wrote:On October 04 2012 00:30 DarthPunk wrote:On October 04 2012 00:27 Z-BosoN wrote:On October 04 2012 00:20 DarthPunk wrote:On October 03 2012 23:54 Z-BosoN wrote:
DP I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss stutters.
I'm @ school so its hard to be useful atm, but game is leaning heavily in our favor. Like I said, rb/jail debears and we should be fine. Its a high possibility that the last scum is godfather, and that would make things a bit difficult. Medic would be wise to save me, dp or sdm.
I just want the info that debears is/isnt scum! Dude he was one part of the driving force behind the kush lynch. He along with SDM were the ones to resurrect it after I gave it up as a lost hope. Also he is conforming to his town meta with his Drop posts into afk. Meh it is possible that he is scum but I find it highly unlikely. Djo and shady seems scumm as hell to me. If I survive I will make a case on them. I know what I am looking at. I would do it now but I left it to too late and it is 1 am and I have uni tomorrow ^_^ So please read their filters critically. Of course Roleblock whoever, but we don't know if we have a role blocker so we should not rely on it. Anyway. Follow SDM. That is my call if I die and you feel that you must sheep. Like I said, I wouldn't be quick to dismiss him. But if you read his kush arguments, it's also pretty much nothing new. There is such a thing as bussing, you know. The reason why I think this makes SDM town but not stutters is that SDM added new meta-related arguments, which is totally hardcore to do if he's a bussing scum, which I don't think is what happened. I seriously doubt that scum would have bussed when the case was dead in the water. DAY ONE. and been the very first to do so. Like I said not 100% but certainly not a leading candidate. or even close to being one. As far as I recall, I don't think stutters brought the case out of the water. I agree that he wouldn't make a good d3 lynch candidate, but claiming him town? No way. I just went back and reread the thread around this time. (like you could have ^_^) And Stutters is town guys. He actually did bring the case back. It was dead until stutters made 2 lengthy posts against Kush. this is before SDM's posts on kush's meta. He was also the first vote behind me. And made his vote when there were ZERO votes on kush. and against the prevailing sentiment of the thread at the time. He made his case on Kush before you had even FoS'd kush. He is a very very strong town read. along with SDM.
Like I said, I'm on my cell phone
In that case, then I'll have to agree that it does make him look town.
So, unless someone has made some spectacular play as scum (which I doubt, more on that later)
We have town reads on:
SDM, DP, me, and Stutters
That only leaves
Shady, debears, RSC, Omni, Djodref.
If we can guarantee that, and if debears isn't scum, we are in great shape
Like someone above said, we should not get overconfident (as I was sad to learn in XXIV) but still
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yea, have him claimed and killed tonight... very nice
if you don't get blocked there is no jk (or he's very naive)
the only instance he should claim is if it wins us the game, period.
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and unless scum got roleblcoked, I agree there is no rb
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GODAMNIT! If there is a roleblocker/jailkeeper this game I will strangle him with my fists.
Scum got pretty ballsy there.
He was shot for being obviously the most confirmed townie there is. Thankfully he wasn't really blue.
I'll assume we don't have one and there naught but a medic this game.
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Actually you know what
##Unvote
##Vote Omniscient4983
You have a case against you. Defend yourself, and please let us know who you think is a good lynch.
If we straight up vote here, and debears ends up being town, this is going to be a wasted day.
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On October 04 2012 07:16 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Uh, not sure what just happened. There are a few obvious options but I don't know if speculating will help us. One thing is for sure though, if anyone got roleblocked this is most certainly the time to claim.
Boson, looking at the role list there is only JK and scum roleblocker.
What are you talking about?
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EPT
