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On September 09 2012 01:28 Xatalos wrote: Sonic Death Monkey, are you on board with lynching KillingTime? Why / why not? In your latest post you were hesitant because lynching KillingTime would give "limited info", but please forget factors like that. Everything is decided with this lynch, so it has to hit Mafia. Besides, if we lynch KillingTime and he flips Mafia, it would give more info than with imcasey or Stutters695 flipping Mafia (at least KillingTime has been more active than imcasey or Stutters695...).
Not really. We don't win the game if we lynch a maffia d3. It only makes sense we care about whether we lose on d3 or d4 and I sure don't. This means that information is important, but quite hard to obtain without some analytical work (it sucks thrawn or Kreb is around, I don't have the time this weekend). For this reason I could get behind the idea of lynching the most like scum, my guess is usually it's best anyway. I guess where we differ is that I consider you one of the lynching candidates.
On September 08 2012 23:31 Xatalos wrote: When considering today's lynch, I'm going to just flat-out ignore kushm4sta, JacobStrangelove and Sonic Death Monkey as lynch candidates. You three have been the most active and contributive posters so far, which also makes you the most likely townies. I'm not saying there can't be Mafia among you, but if we somehow managed to get 4 votes on one of you, the chance of hitting Mafia wouldn't be good. Certainly one of you flipping Mafia would make it much easier to find the remaining two Mafia, but as I just explained, we can't risk an immediate loss for future benefits.
If you really trust those three players (you're basically saying you're willing to risk the outcome of the game trusting us) and all of us are leaning towards Killing, why do you try to change the lynch to Stutters? What you're saying about us consolidating the votes is very true. I'm going to look primarily to Kush when it comes to the d3 lynch, secondarily to Jacob. If someone else is behind the decision of the voting candidate, you being one clear example, I'm going to be very sceptical.
Also, in your opinion Stutters, Killing and imcasey are likely scum. Do you have any thoughts about the Stutters vs Killing feud? It came at a very weird timing for it to be manufactured. The only heat Killing was taking at that point was from Jacob, and even he was backing down.
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Holy shit, I'm busy one weekend and the thread explodes. Can someone pleeease explain the case against me because I'm short on time. All I saw was Jacob saying I was in both his teams so I'm now a sure lynch. We were in a really bad spot but losing the game in this way would really put an exlamation mark on our performance. I will be back to respond but I feel the time is running out. Jesus this is frustrating.
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On September 10 2012 01:34 JacobStrangelove wrote: I'm still not asleep *sigh* But if that is all you saw you missed almost everything. It was to do with the all to happy to lynch killing thing as well as the fact I saw the killing case become non existent. Not only that I couldn't reply to the case for imcasey being town several things you said and aligments I noticed the slip by xatalos regarding killing and the thing he said about stutters and multiple other things.
It's all in the thread, to bring you up to speed I used my power as confirmed town and the arguments I presented to convince kush and almost force the vote on you. Also xatalos and you can't both be town and xatalos was convinced that you were town. To me it looks like you went all in on this killing lynch and then when you were caught out xatalos gave himself away completely by trying to save you. If he was mafia and you town he wouldn't care if you were lynched. He would prefer it. The only reason he would care is if they bet on you being called town and the lynch on killing. With this backfiring he is also implicated.
Another thing to note, if killing was mafia then wouldn't xatalos have tried to save him at least a little. he wouldn't be able to save imcasey infact you both (if I recall correctly) were going at imcasey because you were safe in the fact killing was set to be lynched.
I'm not sure if you're town or not, but with all those conflicting theories you've thrown out today I've hard a hard time seeing that done by a scum. If you ARE scum, very well played. Skimming through the thread most things you've said about me makes it seem you've barely even read it.
On September 09 2012 13:58 JacobStrangelove wrote: If stutters went too hard at killing to be a bus and he is almost positive town now, then doesn't your style seem rather bus like. For example the stutters killing was to... aggressive to be a bus however you say "good points" and you passively agree about killing time. You seem to passively agree about xatalos. You are only actively going at imcasey. It is really unlikely that you and imcasey are a scum team so my question is are you scum passively busing your two scum mates and betting because of that you can get a lynch on imcasey? Honestly at this point I have said it before and I will say it again. The game seems to be down to is imcasey scum or sonic.
That's not what I said at all, I was talking about the weird timing:
On September 09 2012 08:16 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Also, in your opinion Stutters, Killing and imcasey are likely scum. Do you have any thoughts about the Stutters vs Killing feud? It came at a very weird timing for it to be manufactured. The only heat Killing was taking at that point was from Jacob, and even he was backing down.
On September 09 2012 21:54 JacobStrangelove wrote: This probably seems strange to you considering everything that has happened but think for one minute if killing is town. Xatalos/Sonic are voting for him. These are now my top two scum reads. I can't believe I have been this stupid all game. Sorry if I am getting frustrated I just need to make you see this. The imcasey is town was a weak case. Why do you think I had so much trouble explaining my town read on him. Your read on him is related to my read (im part) and I think my read is actually messed up. In sonic pretending to bus imcasey I realised imcasey is scum. However not his intention I worked everything else out.
This is what I've been arguing all along (there's no "bussing", I've said your case is weak). Now you agree I'm right, and that makes me scum? Seriously, what's happening?
On September 09 2012 21:54 JacobStrangelove wrote: This probably seems strange to you considering everything that has happened but think for one minute if killing is town. Xatalos/Sonic are voting for him.
I haven't voted for him. I've even been the one to suggest we need to look into others as well. I will vote for him now though.
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On September 10 2012 02:50 kushm4sta wrote: Do I agree with or even understand Jacobs case? No. But we needed consensus so rather than trying to convince him otherwise by making a case is my cell phone I just went with it lol
I'm afraid the reason you don't get it is because it makes no sense at all. At this point it really seems like it will put a quite an awesome exlamation mark on our abysmal performance in this game though. Wow, maffia games can be really freakin' frustrating.
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Thanks to the hosts and coaches!
Still have no idea why I was getting lynch. Is it fair to say it was a "feel read"? Because it didn't seem very well logically reasoned. In any case we got owned.
Biggest disappointment of the game was the TL site screwing up format of this post (townie points to the one to first see the scum tell):
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On September 13 2012 17:38 JacobStrangelove wrote: Well it started as a feel read (just seemed what you were saying was a little off) and when I looked at you as if you were mafia everything in the thread made logical(or intuitive) sense. So it was intuition or a feel read that made me no longer confused. Cause up until that point I honestly didn't have much of a clue. However it clicked and made perfect sense.
Problem was I didn't have much time to explain it all logically (like 10 hours til lynch and I needed sleep) so after putting up some arguments and seeing I wasn't going far I just decided to force the vote. Honestly the thing that set it off was you saying imcasey was probably scum. When I realised that was true it helped because you wouldn't be in a scum team with the others but you would with him. Something along those lines... Also the way killing was acting helped.
I can't actually see the scum tell (lol) I might have seen it in game but I don't remember.
That's one of my problems with your read. I never said he was probably scum. And pointing out that your extreme confidence in your imcasey read was unjustified is something I would've done as town 100%.
I don't think there's anything in the thread that necessarily make me look super towni, but I don't see what makes me look scum. It's hard for me to look at my actions objectively though.
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On September 13 2012 17:47 KillingTime wrote: Did you really try to post that written in that manner? Ouch, funny that we suddenly ended up lynching you after you were so confident enough to do that.
I was 99% sure no-one would see it. I'm actually suprised you immediately saw it even after I hinted at what it was. And yeah, that's how it shows in the preview, but not when I posted.
I was pretty confident at that point though. After Jacob's n2 analysis post where he was basically completely wrong, I got really confident. I even think I said in the Maffia QT that keeping Jacob is a good thing because he's misleading everyone else. Look at how that turned out :p
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On September 13 2012 18:49 JacobStrangelove wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2012 18:21 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
I was pretty confident at that point though. After Jacob's n2 analysis post where he was basically completely wrong, I got really confident. I even think I said in the Maffia QT that keeping Jacob is a good thing because he's misleading everyone else. Look at how that turned out :p Haha yeah I noticed probably going to get night killed day two whenever I roll town now... let me mislead everyone then kill me. It wasn't so much that you would be scum for saying that but it just made me look at you. Honestly you played a near perfect game. Not so much that you questioned me on imcasey but more that because of your questioning I realised he was scum. With him being scum and the way killing reacted making him seem so town like. I was able to put killing as more town than you and with casey being mafia and stutters vig I only saw you left. (at this point I had xatalos almost confirmed scum due to the way the kville lynch went{and other things}) Also all the little things made sense. (you not wanting a vig reveal etc..{althought he vig thing seemed to confuse everybody for a while}) I am mostly just lucky my intuition kicked in. Nothing major just when I looked at filters with this mafia team in my head nothing felt wrong. I also found it amusing when kush got upset at xatalos for Nk-ing me. Although that said I am not sure if I will play mafia for a while. Getting near the end of the semseter for me. Might play in the holidays.
I still don't get how you confirmed imcasey scum. Or how the Kville lynch made Xatalos confirmed scum. Or how them being confirmed scum made ME the best lynch. Don't get me wrong, it was still a very nice play. Sometimes the brain can process lots of small stuff you can't put to words (I guess that's intuition). You relied on yours and it paid off.
The way I acted wrt the vig reveal was exactly how I would've reacted as town. My problem was since I didn't have enough time to explain exactly what I meant. I don't think the vig should reveal unless he's at the risk of getting lynched (or like Stutters, doesn't follow the thread closely enough to be able to react in time). Having the vig wait for the reveal seems better from a town perspective. It's possible that analysis is wrong though, there are both benefits and drawbacks of an early reveal. At least I didn't have scummy intentions when discussing it and I probably would've been better off just not discussing it :p
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On September 13 2012 18:50 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2012 18:19 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:On September 13 2012 17:38 JacobStrangelove wrote: Well it started as a feel read (just seemed what you were saying was a little off) and when I looked at you as if you were mafia everything in the thread made logical(or intuitive) sense. So it was intuition or a feel read that made me no longer confused. Cause up until that point I honestly didn't have much of a clue. However it clicked and made perfect sense.
Problem was I didn't have much time to explain it all logically (like 10 hours til lynch and I needed sleep) so after putting up some arguments and seeing I wasn't going far I just decided to force the vote. Honestly the thing that set it off was you saying imcasey was probably scum. When I realised that was true it helped because you wouldn't be in a scum team with the others but you would with him. Something along those lines... Also the way killing was acting helped.
I can't actually see the scum tell (lol) I might have seen it in game but I don't remember. That's one of my problems with your read. I never said he was probably scum. And pointing out that your extreme confidence in your imcasey read was unjustified is something I would've done as town 100%. I don't think there's anything in the thread that necessarily make me look super towni, but I don't see what makes me look scum. It's hard for me to look at my actions objectively though. That's the problem though. When it came down to it There were only 4 townies in the game. and you did not make the top four whichever way you looked at it. I recommend you all to read this if you have not already. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=362042It was a bastardised version of this scum hunting strategy that got you. Show nested quote +Negative Elimination This is kind of a bad name for the strategy, but basically you focus on making town-reads (which you largely keep to yourself). You defend them in the thread and focus on pressuring anyone you don't have a town read on, supporting their lynch and trying to gather info and increase your list of townreads. You use the process of elimination and townreads to pressure scum instead of scumreads.
Pros: townreads are easier to make than scumreads. focussing on defending good townies can keep them alive for later. Cons: this makes you a bit hard to read. also, you need to constantly re-evaluate your townreads since scum could have you fooled. in games where townies are hard to find this goes very poorly.
I think going for the perfect victory caught up with you. And you were also over confident by the end judging by the Scum QT. If I were you I would have bussed one of your own HARD. Then you would have been in the position Jacob was in and could have lynched anyone of your choosing.
I'm not sure. There was a lot of momentum behind the Killing wagon. Not only Jacob but also Kush and Stutters were behind it. That's the entire town team. Remember Jacob's reads going into d3 was:
imcasey: certain town Me: almost certain town Xatalos: leaning town Killing: almost certain scum
My d3 plan was going hard at Xatalos and Killing. Trying to free Killing from suspicion seemed like a really bad move because given the circumstances he's getting lynched on d3 >75% of the time and we win (if anyone claims anything else you need to put away your ex-post goggles, Jacob's save was a clear outlier). Depending on how well Xatalos defended himself d3 I was open for pushing his wagon instead though. Basically just like I would've played as town.
Negative elimination had me worried, like I hinted at in the beginning of d3 (I thought it would've been Xatalos getting lynched, not myself). I couldn't possibly prepare for this scenario on n2 though, because I didn't think they had a vig. Their vig meant that both Stutters and drazak (two of the players most suspected for being scum) became cofirmed townies and instead of a scenario where the town needs to find 3 scum out of 8 players they only needed to find 3 out of 6. I was really out of the discussion for being negative elimination eliminated before those events. At d3 the variables of the game completely changed and I didn't have the time to be around and influence it.
So if you're telling me I should've planned bussing a scum at n2 already, I disagree. If you're telling me I should've bussed Xatalos d3 after Stutters claims vig, yeah I agree, but I wasn't around at that time.
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On September 13 2012 19:57 DarthPunk wrote: If Casey and Sonic had Bussed you hard. Like at the start of the day, before all the shit with jacob happened. I think you would have won the game. Imagine Casey and Sonic two players who could have both pushed for a lynch on killing with the added benefit of being right.
Did you notice how everyone followed Jacob with no question after the SDM lynch? That could have been SDM after your lynch. In that case it would almost certainly have been GG.
Oh, I didn't see this post. The entire town team was behind lynching Killing and we're supposed to start the day off by lynching Xatalos hard? What would be the rationale behind that?
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On September 13 2012 21:12 marvellosity wrote: lol, was it a vigi who hit drazak?
Yeah.
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On September 13 2012 21:17 marvellosity wrote:let me find something for you guys edit: read the few posts starting from here. drazak all but claimed medic in-thread ^_^ further edit: Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 10:40 drazak wrote: I'm saying from a medic's point of view, I wasn't sure about him myself. Obviously he WAS town, but he had a lot of town power which isn't always a good thing. That one was the cutest. Hapa and I had big smiles talking about the passage sitting on IRC.
Yeah, we was a little bit late on the ball on that one. Close to EOD2, Xatalos in Maffia QT:
Something caught my eye. Maybe drazak is a Medic? He says this:
drazak United States. September 05 2012 10:38. Posts 106 PM Profile Report Quote # Not to demean his memory, but he could have been good mafia convincing us he was town and trying to lead us into bad lynches. drazak United States. September 05 2012 10:40. Posts 106 PM Profile Report Quote # I'm saying from a medic's point of view, I wasn't sure about him myself. Obviously he WAS town, but he had a lot of town power which isn't always a good thing.
My response:
Btw, I had no idea what drazak was talking about when he made that post. I've heard blue roles are the most likely to talk about blue roles, so you might be onto something. We'll see in a few minutes :/
OMG sick read :D
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On September 13 2012 21:23 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2012 21:09 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:On September 13 2012 19:57 DarthPunk wrote: If Casey and Sonic had Bussed you hard. Like at the start of the day, before all the shit with jacob happened. I think you would have won the game. Imagine Casey and Sonic two players who could have both pushed for a lynch on killing with the added benefit of being right.
Did you notice how everyone followed Jacob with no question after the SDM lynch? That could have been SDM after your lynch. In that case it would almost certainly have been GG. Oh, I didn't see this post. The entire town team was behind lynching Killing and we're supposed to start the day off by lynching Xatalos hard? What would be the rationale behind that? It is safer. I think you would have won for sure that way. The way you played it out relied on the fact that the three of you looked more townie than the four real town. From reading the thread I am not sure taht was a safe assumption to make. If you had bussed Xatalos day 3. You would have a lot of town cred with which to get 1 mislynch during the next two days. If you don't understand the rational behind it. I am sorry. but it is obvious to me. If you are going to bus for town cred. It is worth much less if the suspicion is already on you. If you did it whilst the suspicion was on killing it actually has value.
Of course I understand the rationale, it's basic town cred hunting. What I meant is it doesn't seem rational to go after Xatalos at the start of d3 as town. If it's not something rational to do as town, it's fishy to do as scum. He had basically been afk for five days and now I'm supposed to go lynch him hard before he's had the chance to post anything? Even though there's really no new information to sway my opinion in that direction? As town I would've reacted to what he said and as scum I act like I would've acted as town.
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On September 13 2012 21:25 DarthPunk wrote: And If you feel like you need something to justify a Xatalos lynch in order to satisfy your town personas, then you could easily manufacture it in the QT.
Yeah, I agree that would've been a good idea.
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On September 13 2012 22:06 Hapahauli wrote: I still don't entirely understand Jacob's read on SDM, but I think it does illustrate a couple of faults in the early-game mafia strategy.
If you look at the situation on D3 from Jacob's point of view... Himself Kush Stutters KillingTime iamcasey SDM Xatalos
At that point in the game, every player in the game was treating stutters and kush as almost confirmed townies. Jacob was also very strongly town to other townies. The only mislynch mafia could have pushed KillingTime. If Plan A didn't work, Plan B" was to roll over and die. Why did this happen? Mafia's Night 2 Kill of Kreb!
Mafia really had no business trying to blue-snipe on Day 2, because it didn't fit together with their Day 1 play. For some reason, Mafia established the "townieness" of kush very early on. Not shooting him is a huge liability, because he is one less person for the town to mislynch in later days. Not shooting him created a D3 where town basically had a 75% to catch scum.
As a side note, I really hate bluesniping in newbie games in general. You should only blue-snipe if you see an obvious bread-crumb, a blue-claim, or a very obvious tell (i.e. Drazak's early N1 posts). Otherwise, getting rid of obvious townies, regardless of skill, is a great idea to set up for the endgame.
Even without the iamcasey modkill and the vigi-shot on Drazak, I still don't think scum were set up well for the later days. The scumteam got complacent, and were too happy with their early-game play to continue and push their advantage. This game gets harder and harder for mafia as the game goes on, and it requires proactive play throughout.
Oh, and Drazak's medic claim was awesome. Kinda surprised no one picked up on the significance TBH =P
Yeah, that mistake is on me. I thought we could kill him off later, but I underestimated the need of killing off others (blues and other trusted townies) so in the end we had too many confirmed townies.
And +1 for this game getting harder for maffia in the late game :p
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