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On September 07 2012 04:08 kushm4sta wrote:Show nested quote +On September 07 2012 03:53 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Could you expand on what information you expect to gain from Xatalos flipping red? For instance, xatalos has been a huge defender of drazzak (huge being a relative term since his contribution has been quite limited). If xatalos flips I have a huge argument prepared for his connection to drazzak which I have been saving since it is worthless unless he's scum.
Yeah, that's a connection, but far from a sure thing. He made a d1 defense of drazak that was very similar to the one Kreb made d2:
+ Show Spoiler +On September 04 2012 00:05 Xatalos wrote:
I also don't think drazak is Mafia. The typical reaction for pressured Mafia is to get angry, aggressive or desperate, but in my eyes, he has tried to be genuinely helpful - giving away a lot of unnecessary information in case he actually was Mafia. The somewhat frustrated tone in his posts also points more to town than Mafia.
On September 06 2012 09:42 Kreb wrote:The key thing to me is this: That really had me thinking. Let me explain. That little phrase expresses the feeling of guilt. First of all, there is absolutely no reason for a mafia to feel genuine guilt at this point. He is being attack from one front (thrawn) and then has his defense kind of destroyed from another front (me). What is the feeling you get as mafia then? Desperation? Maybe. Resignation? Maybe. Anger? Maybe. Guilt? Hell no. For this to be a mafia-move, it has to be a planted feeling. A purposedly planted feeling to fool us.
And by this I'm not implying a three-way conspiracy or that it's a great read, just saying it's a resonable read to make.
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On September 07 2012 04:55 Kville wrote:Show nested quote +On September 07 2012 04:48 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Kville, if you're townie, do you really think your way of posting is pro-town? If so, why?
I try to make sense of you, but I have no idea what you're doing. Take my way of posting however you want. I dont want to post false information on some one to get a lynch and seemlike a townie, thats a scums job.
I'm going to bed in one hour and I'm leaning towards voting on you because you don't even seem to try to contribute. Can you give me any reasons for why it would be beneficial for us to keep you?
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Ok, I'm putting my vote on Kville. Xatalos got the thread started by throwing out those questions d1. It helped getting the discussion past the "do we lynch lurkers" and "what about dem lists" part, which is generally pro-town. I have no idea what his motivation was though, since he disappeared quickly and didn't return until EOD (his military service can be a legitimate excuse or a convenient circumstance). At this point it's a vote against Kville more than it's a vote for Xatalos. I'd rather have a player left who seems to interested in playing the game and contribute than someone who doesn't.
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Fuck, this is really bad. I’ve been so frustrated with Kville and his anti-town playstyle. I still don’t know if he legitimately thought he was playing well or if he was trolling. Either way it sucks he was in the game.
For now I’ll just post a couple of thoughts I had last night but didn’t feel like posting because I think it just would’ve derailed the lynching discussion:
The town read thing:
+ Show Spoiler +There are different kinds of town reads. I would say my town read on Kush is based on deductive reasoning. My reasoning is easy to follow and can be disputed for example by showing that claimed facts are wrong or attacking its assumptions. This game is based around critical thinking and if town reads leads to some players being able to exploit leadership roles, the problem isn’t the town read, but that the other players are sheeps.
My town read on Kreb is a “feel” read. If someone disagrees by saying “I don’t feel the same way”, we’re in a stalemate. Obviously that makes it a weak town read and I wouldn’t expect others to necessarily agree with it (I’ll go back and check Kreb’s filter and hopefully make it a logical argument later, but right now that’s wasted time because he’s not up for lynching anyway).
I feel like this is somewhat relevant now that Kush is taking some heat. I don’t think anyone has commented on the arguments I’ve made for my Kush = townie read. The facts behind are definitely true, do anyone disagree on the assumptions? For me to reconsider my position on Kush I’d like a counter-argument.
On September 05 2012 18:49 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:I don't find the case against kush to be strong. I will repeat my earlier arguments: + Show Spoiler +Starting a wagon d1: Usually gives you too much attention (this game is a case in point)
Pursuing that townie Cubu: I think at a 4-2 score where no other wagons had any momentum, he still aggressively pursued Cubu.
Going after thrawn: Makes no sense to attack the most trusted townie (those were the accusations right? I still need to go back and reread this part)
All his actions will give him a ton of attention, that’s not very scummy at all.
I’ve been reading through the arguments against Kush but didn’t focus too much on it yesterday because I think it makes more sense to discuss it now. My reaction to reading through the exchange between Kush and drazark was that Kush went into a pretty heavy OMGUS-mode (wrt to those 4 posts he made in response). Is this what you find to be scummy, drazark? Or is there more to it that I have missed? Could you please condense your argument to what you believe to be the most valid points?
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On September 07 2012 19:11 kushm4sta wrote:
drazaks main argument against me is just wrong. his facts are false. his case is sloppy. unless someone else presents a better case, I think we should not focus on if drazs accusations are correct, but if they make h mafia. on the one hand they are reckless, which is a trait of town. On the other hand they are senseless, devoid of content, and appear to serve no other purpose than to sow confusion and start a flame war.
Look at when it starts, right as I accuse xatalos.
sorry for formatting this was written on my phone.
This wouldn't have happened if you just stayed calm. If you're suspicious of drazak then look through his filter. Make a coherent argument that doesn't come off as OMGUS-ing. If you think he's trying to sow confusion and start flame wars, you're helping his cause.
I'm going to look through Stutters posts because I basically gave him a free pass yesterday. I also postponed answering to Jacob because he didn't come off as a good d2 lynching candidate. And of course I expect Xatalos to answer the questions he left hanging.
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I've been checking out Stutter's filter, starting d1 with our back-and-forth:
+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:@Sonic Death MonkeySo your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV). You also say Show nested quote +The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum. If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.) Basically your rebuttal is that my “entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution” and then you shoot back with accusations of your own. I explain why you’re wrong… + Show Spoiler +On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:Alright, a couple of thoughts. On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote:
Im not lurking! I just woke up! First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here? This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages. Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
@Sonic Death Monkey
So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution. The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about: 1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making. You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy? As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread. Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid. Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:You also say The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum. If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box. Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
(As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all. The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2. On September 04 2012 06:15 Stutters695 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:Alright, a couple of thoughts. On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote:
Im not lurking! I just woke up! First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here? This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
@Sonic Death Monkey
So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution. The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about: 1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making. You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy? As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:You also say The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum. If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
(As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all. The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2. Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before. Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good. The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all. The question you answer here isn’t the one I asked. I wanted to know the intent of your original posts, the posts that made you a suspect in the first place. Which I explain in my next post… + Show Spoiler +On September 04 2012 16:26 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 06:15 Stutters695 wrote:On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:Alright, a couple of thoughts. On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote:
Im not lurking! I just woke up! First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here? This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
@Sonic Death Monkey
So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution. The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about: 1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making. You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy? As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:You also say The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum. If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
(As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all. The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2. Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before. Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good. The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all. EOD = End of day Honestly I don't find this response very satisfying. It seems like we have quite different experiences from the game though and we might both be biased. Imo d1 the town usually focus way too much on active players while scum try to fly under the radar. That's why I like putting pressure on lurkers, you were just one of them and the one I happened to find the most suspect. You're saying we're focus too little on motives? The motive of flying under the radar is to just sit back while the town starts flinging poo on eachother. I'm still not sure what your motive of making generic posts was. Maybe someone who followed XXIV can chime in? Thrawn, it seems like you were playing that game?
So what was the motivation behind your generic posts d1? I'm sure a smart player like you have motives. Did you really think they were pro-town?
You came off as really defensive despite it being clear your posts were useless and that you knew the game well enough to understand that they were useless. You were basically saying “hey guys, focus on motives, my motives are clean”, when it’s clear that the motives of generic posts and then just showing up for EOD can easily be motives of scum wanting to fly under the radar. Why so defensive of these useless posts?
D2 you play differently. You contribute with some meta on Kville and calling out KillingTime. This is of course appreciated and gives a reason to let you stay in the game. After the heat you had taken on d1 this was pretty much required and of course what any smart player would do (townie or scum).
My question regarding d2 is one Kreb brought up earlier: the KillingTime accusations. To me they came off as a distraction that hurt the more productive discussions. Did you see any chances of actually lynching KillingTime? If not, why wouldn't you just let those accusations wait?
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On September 08 2012 03:33 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Guess who can't sleep.
@sonic
Just what productive discussions are you referring to? If you were talking about the kush/drazak that could be the same thing. If you were talking about kville... well it is obvious what happened. The discussion was hardly there anyway. Honestly the productive discussions weren't all that productive and it did show a side of killing that is now very suspicious. Also stutters had not so useful posts day one but he has made useful posts day two. Unlike killing time who has avoided most things both days. Do you not notice or comment on the state of killings integrity right now?
However this is speculation. I will now read through you filter.
I would agree on your survival chances kreb :/
Yeah, I think Kush/drazak was a distraction, which is part of why I think we didn't need yet another case thrown out at that point. I was going through Stutters' filter and I didn't want to mix in random thoughts about others in this post. Just because I'm asking Stutters questions doesn't necessarily mean I think he's the #1 suspect or a good lynch for tomorrow. This is just a good way of forcing information from someone we gave a pass on d2. There's 48h of d3 before the lynch choice and I don't think we should even be talking about lynching subjects at this point.
I haven't had time to read up on all the developments of the Killing case, but I certainly will.
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On September 08 2012 03:30 Kreb wrote:
Oooo. My if-I-die-post will be good today, I might have figured out something.... hmmm. Just gimme some time to write a proper post.
Consider I think my survival chances are fairly limited, I'll make sure to help with what I can.
If you can, make sure to post it just a few minutes before deadline. I'm not around for EON and I think it's pretty counterproductive to post an if-I-die-post which scum have the time to read.
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Alright, I typed this post about 3 hours ago as a reply to Jacob, intended for tomorrow. If I get whacked, I wouldn’t want this post to go missing though, so I set my alarm (posts made in the last 3 hours will for obvious reasons be ignored in this post).
On September 07 2012 23:01 JacobStrangelove wrote:+ Show Spoiler +This is a large post but it has been cut into sections of Defense of Imcasey, defense on stutters, case on killing, case on drazak. I will save Kreb for another time as it would be too long otherwise. I just hope the formating works. Ok this is the start of a very long post as of such I will try to be as clear and concise as possible. Kreb you missed a large section of my argument for why WeeTee Imcasey is town. First off I will show you the backstory. If you look at WeeTees first posts it includes this. On September 02 2012 21:19 WeeTee wrote:
Good to see you here @jacob should be a good game this time! It is evident that he and I know each other. Why else would he single me out? In other words I know how he plays. I know his meta better than anybody in this thread. Also watching his last mafia game he has used the exact same play style. Now you mention that it isn’t an imcasey read it’s a WeeTee read. Yes but they are the same person. It’s as if you put someone with multiple personalities in the thread but they are the same person. If I am 99% sure WeeTee is town I can assume that translates over to imcasey. Also there are plenty of reasons for the less posting style. With him having to leave this means he was unlikely to be able to form cases day one. Also with the replacement going into his first game a day in so much to read and this would also contribute to the lack of posting. I will post the part you missed about my argument for WeeTee. On September 05 2012 19:22 JacobStrangelove wrote:I probably should point out that part of the reason I had a town read for WeeTee is that I happen to know his style (see his first post where he mentions it’s good to see me) and it reeks of town. With this (although he may have fooled me) I thought Xatatos read of WeeTee when Stutters was available strange. Also with killing he is sceptical of “meta” reads Show nested quote +On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote:
My point was that I did not think your town reads added much to the thread, partly because I am very sceptical of "meta" reads at this point given that we all have 3 or less games.
Sure but its more information, that can only be helpful. If WeeTee fits his meta (he does) and he fits the meta I know he is unlikely to be scum. This and the fact that he had to leave due to time problems(although that may have been after my time line is a little messed up) then surely stutters were a better lynch. While the argument in context might be a little out of date the facts about WeeTee remain the same. Also there is this from kville (he was talking to xatalos at the time), while kville was a little trolish you can’t tell me this doesn’t make sense. On September 05 2012 22:55 Kville wrote:
Well WeeTee Did get replaced which could be the reason why he was playing so "safe" and conservative. He badnwagoned to avoid a modkill in order to fulfill the replacement, so it seems. The fact that there is little to no evidence other than "he was playing safe" doesn't really seem like a sure vote to go for, unless you are trying for another mislynch. You vote and leave the first day and you do it again the second time. It seems like your strategy seems to be "POP" then lurk. which seems a bit suspicious. And finally we have nothing proven scum against him. I am sure if we examine the filters of people we can come up with a far better target. Non of this let’s backup vote imcasey stuff, that just makes it more likely the scum will spread confusion and force us to vote for him. Now I would also like to point out this. On September 07 2012 15:09 KillingTime wrote:
... well that is annoying. I agree that the reason that we ended up with a Xatalos v Kville situation was because we were all accusing each other. I said at the start of the day I really hoped that we could come up with a better lynch target.. but we did not. Scum have succeeded in thoroughly bamboozling me I have to say. I will look into the thread this evening and I'll be happy to answer questions from those who have suspicions of me. After the flip Kush and I immediately analyse it talk about it start making reads etc... Kililng comes in and makes a “annoyed post” and also says he is bamboozled and says he is happy to answer questions about himself. He makes no mention of scum hunting. Why? Because he doesn’t need to hunt scum, he is scum. This is another fluff post saying he is confused. Surely he would have an opinion on what happened. He says so much however his major posts are lists and he is very non committal. Surely someone else sees this! While my arguments up until this points haven’t been the clearest if you think I am town why do you think I hardly left Killings side. Intuition has to could for something and it has. He was not able to answer why he was so non committal his only reply was On September 07 2012 00:01 KillingTime wrote:
First, if you feel I have been non-committal or weak in my play then I can only apologise and say this is my first game and I am definitely learning as I go. That is not an excuse, but it is the most likely explanation for "weak" town play on my part. I think Kreb, Drazak & Sonic are town, everyone else I am currently suspicious of.
This is not really a reply, for me it is an excuse that anybody could use. Also his case on stutters is due to kush/xatalos pushing the conversation away from him. His one major non listed case was based on association. On September 06 2012 17:02 KillingTime wrote:
Ok, having re-read through a bunch of filters today I think we should lynch Stutters695 - Yes his posting/lurking has been/is reason enough to lynch him. But, reading back through filters there has been way to much redirection of discussion away from him as a good lynch - particularly from kush.
...
Now, this does not mean that both Kush & Xatalos are mafia if stutters flips - but that is WAY too much subtle redirecting of a target for me. Stutters is as scummy as anyone at this point, if he flips we will have some strong targets for d3.
If we lynch him and he is not mafia, town is in a bad spot - but we are in a bad spot regardless of who we lynch if they flip and are not mafia (kreb has convinced me of this with his case against kville that there is no point not going for lurkers.).
I would also like to point out that kush seems to be following his meta as well. Admittedly meta talk in a newbie game is a little hard but you would think rolling scum would mess with how they would act. Also if you notice stutters filter and replies I will tell you why he is likely town. He did have a slow start day one. Considering drazak kville weetee cubu all had slow day one starts two who are confirmed town and one who I pointed out seems confirmed town to me this is no reason for a scum read. What you should look at is the quality and logical reasoning in his filter. You should read the whole post but in particular. On September 06 2012 18:28 Stutters695 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 17:02 KillingTime wrote:
I think kville is not a terrible lynch. But Stutters is better and more scummy, and throws alot of suspicions on others who seem to have been redirecting a/the serious Stutters wagon so far...
Please explain what part of my play has been more scummy than someone who has been trolling the thread and not contributed anything? ##FoS Killing TimeI need to go through his filter but this isn't the first time he hasn't taken a stance on issues while posting "reads" that don't actually commit longterm. While kville did show up as town in the lynch he was an easy lynch, scum would want to lynch the slightly harder targets so they have a free win by the time they get to end game. For example if we lynched stutters it would be easy to convince town to lynch kville. If anything if we spent another day with him in the game we would have been frustrated into lynching him. Also he returns fire on killing time and is way more active engaged asking questions giving responces. He questions kush and drazak on the issues and responds on a manner I can only call logical. His filter isn’t filled with fluff so I suggest you read it for yourself as everything he says comes across in a pro town questioning way. Now I am going to transition to drazak. His vote on kush only caused confusion and was purely a slug fest with no real reasoning behind it. After being “caught out” as such by kville and stutters plus the kush argument he backs out and doesn’t comment. He hardly provides good reasons for his mistakes, Also he has a bad habit of calling kville useless. However enough of that I will provide posts and reasons. On September 06 2012 18:03 drazak wrote:
My accusation wasn't out of nowhere, I made a read based on what happened, I reasoned, carefully. I saw that Kush wasn't scumhunting day 1. If you're not scumhunting, you're not furthering town, if you're not furthering town... you're mafia. I then saw kush slipped by overreacting to me. Feel free to poke holes in my actual reasoning instead of calling me scum for making a reasoned accusation. Kush wasn’t scum hunting day one? I’m a freaking unicycling unicorn. First his Kush isn’t scum hunting read is based on this. On September 05 2012 11:55 drazak wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 03:01 kushm4sta wrote:
Why town should all vote for cuba
Worst case scenario:he flips green
No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.
Best case scenario: he is mafia
If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game.
People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn.
People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn.
Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else.
Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?
We need three more votes on cuba. I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches. Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush. ##Vote Kushm4sta But then his day one post was this On September 03 2012 21:24 drazak wrote:
My best read is cubu. He's tried to throw suspiscion, he stopped posting when he had nobody to lay thin accusations on. Cubu has posted only with low content, low value posts, he hasn't had any real reads other than discussing statistics and how afk I was. I think Cubu isn't a great D1 lynch though, which is why he doesn't currently have my vote, if he continues to have such low content posts tomorrow, he will certainly have my vote. Cubu is someone we can try to analyze tomorrow and figure out if he really is mafia, we can't analyze kville, and if we wait to lynch kville it's not going to get better, we don't even have a baseline for him.
To that point, I'm someone you can analyze D2, you have several posts by me, with fairly decent content. Even if kville isn't mafia, he isn't helping anyone. In addition, I felt that going for cubu would just be bandwagoning at this point, which as town doesn't help me at all, espescially considering I do have my own unique thoughts, which I have shared with everyone. The whole “even if kville isn’t mafia he isn’t helping anyone” isn’t this the same thing? They are both talking about lynching the worst townie however drazak covers himself better (something a scum would do over a town) refering to the bandwagon and trying to convince people he is town by pointing out he is town not just assuming everyone knows he is town. “which as town doesn't help me at all” This would be obvious if he was town. Anyway these are my thoughts on Drazak. Because of the lengh of this post I will save Krebs analises for my next post probably (if I find anything) My intuitive thoughts are “he has seemed town but he is saying some strange stuff that I need to look into.”
I know I’ve given you kind of a hard time, but I like this post. It’s easy to comment on because you really managed to make it express it clearly. That doesn’t mean I agree with everything and I have some questions/thoughts (some of your points I simply don’t understand, but I’ll be leaving those aside for the moment):
WeeTee/imcasey – I’m not as convinced as you are
1. Do you have meta reads on WeeTee playing as both townie and scum? Otherwise your meta read becomes a bit shakey.
2. About Kville’s argument, I don’t agree. Maybe you do given your meta, but the fact that he made himself one of the prime suspects d1 means he wasn’t “playing safe”. If he was townie and was worried about getting suspected, he would’ve tried to contribute more and better.
3. The meta read is still a just-trust-me-on-this-one read. While I would like to be able to just trust you, I can’t blindly do that.
4. I think it’s pretty clear imcasey is a newbie and in order to clear himself as townie, I encourage him to post as much as possible. Newbies are likely to slip up as they increase their activity.
5. This doesn’t mean I think imcasey will become a good d3 lynch. We would really like a lynch from which we can gain information. Since we’re in a terrible position where (if I understand the rules correctly) we might need to have three consecutive scum-lynches. I don’t see how the Combined posts/votes of WeeTee/imcasey will give us much info at a red flip. But if imcasey keeps a low activity level, he’ll be at risk later days if we get there.
KillingTime – The case certainly has some good points
1. He has indeed been very non-committal on his scum reads.
2. His town reads are very “safe” as well.
3. “He makes no mention of scum hunting. Why? Because he doesn’t need to hunt scum, he is scum.” – This seems like a classic example of feeling guilty (because you are) and being trapped inside the thought process of a scum (typical newbie tell).
4. It’s still an open case for me and I haven’t done much research on my own.
Stutters – I think you would like to think you have a good townie read
1. It kind of seems to me like your main reason for town clearing Stutters is because he was basically the first one on-board of your Killing case and helped blowing wind into your windmill. (is that even a saying?)
2. “He returns fire on killing time”, is that really a townie read for you?
3. It is possible he picked up on a misread of yours and took that as an opportunity to gain an ally while at the same time getting a townie lynched.
4. Hell, from my point-of-view you could even be working together. A conspiracy I know, I’m just saying any combo of t/t, s/t and s/s is possible as far as I’m concerned (although I don’t have scum lean on you).
5. He does ask a lot of questions, I’ll give him that. It’s a good sign but like I’ve said in previous posts, it doesn’t necessarily make him townie.
I’m obviously conflicted, since I feel like the case on Killing is a pretty good one, but I’m not confident Stutters is a townie either. Both can’t be scum unless we have some epic leveling going on. Not only is epic leveling in itself unlikely, but it’d make no sense for Stutters to bus Killing considering the Killing wagon had little momentum before Stutters’ accusations. I think looking closer at Stutters answers to my questions can be helpful. Moreover, it’s almost as if Xatalos is slipping through the cracks, he’s another potential lynch we’re waiting to hear from.
I’m definitely not set on who to lynch. We need to keep going, ask questions and see what develops. In the end we need to find the best possible lynch. The most likely scum isn’t necessarily the best possible lynch, because we need to take into account what information we gain given a red flip. I would also like to point out that we’ll likely only be at a 5 to 3 advantage tomorrow. It seems to me we pretty much have to form a consensus on who to vote for, or a last minute scum switch can cost us the game (barring some kind of blue role save).
As of right now, the three main candidates for me are:
Killing
Xatalos
Stutter
I might add that I haven’t been totally convinced of the drazak case. I agree he’s made some weird cases and arguments, but he didn’t particularly strike me as scum. I haven’t read his filter though, he’s at best neutral to me.
Kush and Kreb are still my only town reads. I don’t find drazak’s case against Kush convincing and still, no-one has commented on my town read logic. Kreb is a “feel read”, so take it fwiw (I’ve made a n2 post on this).
I hope I’ll be here tomorrow. If so, my activity level might drop a little because I have a friend visiting over the weekend. I’ll try to find time to catch up whenever I can though.
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On September 08 2012 10:01 kushm4sta wrote:
Now we learn if we actually have a medic maybe....
On September 08 2012 10:19 BioSC wrote:
drazak, the Medic, was found dead!
LOL, this just cracked me up.
This doesn't have to be too bad though. Obviously getting our medic killed off is unquestionably bad, but we didn't know we had one anyway, so let's just pretend drazak was a vanilla townie :p
I was thinking we'd likely end up 5 to 3, but now we're 4 to 3. We're still looking at the same scenario, we need to lynch three consecutive scum. However, now we need to find 3 out of 7 players instead of 3 out of 8. Simple probability theory tells us that the former is quite a lot easier. At least given that drazak wasn't considered anywhere near a cleared townie. It's also possible that there's a good vig strat where we can end the game in d4 (not sure yet if that'd make sense for us though and we still obv need to find all scum).
One thing I find really weird is your discussions about the vig. To me it seems like only way you can know who the vig is by having extra info. I know there are three red players in this game with more info than the rest of us, so I'm really curious how Kush and Jacob can be so sure. Sorry for being passive aggressive, but I don't want to throw out all my thoughts on the vig situation right now.
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On September 08 2012 14:35 KillingTime wrote:
Kush has so far pushed Drazak, Kreb & Cubu - &FOS's xatalos. Leaving aside Xatalos, that is a 100% miss rate so far and now you are pushing me because my reads are too safe and non-committal. Welp, that is pretty funny. I have no idea why town should trust anything you say at this point.
Also - I have no idea why you are asking that question because the vig has only one shot?
I agree.with sonic that we should roelclaim at this point - we need all the info we can get because if we mislynch again we lose
Where did I say we should roleclaim?
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On September 08 2012 20:06 kushm4sta wrote:
@Jacob
##fos sonic.
He has not been getting enough scrutiny as he should and I have not noticed him all game. He's been so under the radar all game, which is suspicious to me.
Fair enough. I haven't been under the radar because I haven't contributed though, but because none of you guys have been questioning me. It's not like I'm going to build cases against myself.
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On September 08 2012 06:49 Stutters695 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 08 2012 02:38 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:I've been checking out Stutter's filter, starting d1 with our back-and-forth: + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:@Sonic Death MonkeySo your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV). You also say Show nested quote +The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum. If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.) Basically your rebuttal is that my “entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution” and then you shoot back with accusations of your own. I explain why you’re wrong… + Show Spoiler +On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:Alright, a couple of thoughts. On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote:
Im not lurking! I just woke up! First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here? This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages. Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
@Sonic Death Monkey
So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution. The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about: 1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making. You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy? As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread. Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid. Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:You also say The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum. If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box. Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
(As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all. The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2. On September 04 2012 06:15 Stutters695 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:Alright, a couple of thoughts. On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote:
Im not lurking! I just woke up! First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here? This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
@Sonic Death Monkey
So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution. The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about: 1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making. You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy? As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:You also say The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum. If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
(As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all. The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2. Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before. Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good. The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all. The question you answer here isn’t the one I asked. I wanted to know the intent of your original posts, the posts that made you a suspect in the first place. Which I explain in my next post… + Show Spoiler +On September 04 2012 16:26 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 06:15 Stutters695 wrote:On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:Alright, a couple of thoughts. On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote:
Im not lurking! I just woke up! First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here? This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
@Sonic Death Monkey
So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution. The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about: 1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making. You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy? As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:You also say The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum. If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
(As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all. The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2. Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before. Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good. The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all. EOD = End of day Honestly I don't find this response very satisfying. It seems like we have quite different experiences from the game though and we might both be biased. Imo d1 the town usually focus way too much on active players while scum try to fly under the radar. That's why I like putting pressure on lurkers, you were just one of them and the one I happened to find the most suspect. You're saying we're focus too little on motives? The motive of flying under the radar is to just sit back while the town starts flinging poo on eachother. I'm still not sure what your motive of making generic posts was. Maybe someone who followed XXIV can chime in? Thrawn, it seems like you were playing that game? So what was the motivation behind your generic posts d1? I'm sure a smart player like you have motives. Did you really think they were pro-town? You came off as really defensive despite it being clear your posts were useless and that you knew the game well enough to understand that they were useless. You were basically saying “hey guys, focus on motives, my motives are clean”, when it’s clear that the motives of generic posts and then just showing up for EOD can easily be motives of scum wanting to fly under the radar. Why so defensive of these useless posts? D2 you play differently. You contribute with some meta on Kville and calling out KillingTime. This is of course appreciated and gives a reason to let you stay in the game. After the heat you had taken on d1 this was pretty much required and of course what any smart player would do (townie or scum). My question regarding d2 is one Kreb brought up earlier: the KillingTime accusations. To me they came off as a distraction that hurt the more productive discussions. Did you see any chances of actually lynching KillingTime? If not, why wouldn't you just let those accusations wait? Good question but a pretty simple answer. No I didn't see a KillingTime lynch as going to happen. However KillingTime would have been my best lynch based off of post content. I wanted a Kville lynch until he actually started contributing. Seeing as it felt like Kville and I were the two main lynch candidates I couldn't let those accusations wait. This is arguable, but the only thing that felt like it kept me alive over Kville yesterday was that I responded to questions (what you call me being defensive I call me clarifying my points since they were broad, I'm not arguing that). Given that the most asked question of me was "Who are your major reads, who do you think is town" etc. there was absolutely no reason for me to not post my best read. I could have made a case on Drazak or Xatalos or imcasey but it would have been a rehashing of others arguments as opposed to bringing a new perspective onto somebody.
The question I found the most interesting among those I asked was the last one. With all the info we have now, I didn't think the d1 case against you is very strong anymore (we should be able to make better decisions than basing reads from limited d1 reads). However, the last question was trap (which is why I was a little annoyed that Jacob tried to answer the questions for you). I thought through the possible answers and came to the conclusion that there were three:
1) You thought there was actually a good chance of lynching Killing.
2) You didn't think there was a good chance but you thought it was a good idea to discuss it asap.
3) You were trying to save your own ass.
So I was considering what excuse a scum would use:
1) Not only do I myself think the possibility of a Killing lynch was really small, shortly after Strutter made his Killing case, he posted this: "Currently though my best vote is without a doubt on Kville". So if he had claimed he thought there was a good chance of lynching Killing he would've been FOS.
2) This is answer is just dumb. Stutter doesn't seem dumb. This answer would've also been FOS, bet less so than 1) because it could be that our opinions just differed.
3) I think this is the least likely answer a scum would give, but the most likely actual reason behind bringing it up (whether townie or scum). Note that he was on both mine and Kreb's list of highly suspects before making the Killing case, but was afterwards dropped from most d2 lynch discussions.
Basically you gave me the exact reasoning I had expected from an honest townie. While this doesn't necessarily clear you (because it could also be the answer from a really good scum), it does make Stutter a lot more townie in my book.
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It's obvious we've gained a lot of information today. I feel like the field being limited to seven players, this is the first time we can actually think about entire 3-way teams. Like I said in my post yesterday, I find a Stutter and Killing conspiracy unlikely (a mastermind would be needed, because it's very well crafted). Given my latest post I'm leaning scum on Killing, townie on Stutter.
Still, from the last days I'm leaning townie on Kush, scum on Xatalos (although Kreb's point that it's a null read has some merit), currently I'm pretty neutral on Jacob and imcasey is a total null read. Jacob, could you address my post from yesterday? I don't understand the imcasey = sure townie argument. I don't have a lot of time atm so I won't throw out random team reads. I will make sure to be back later tonight though.
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On September 08 2012 21:33 kushm4sta wrote:
yeah the vigi does only have 1 shot.
so there's nothing wrong with revealing him. I'm pretty certain it's iamcasey, although the vigi only having 1 shot makes me less certain.
!!there is no reason why vigi shouldn't roleclaim at this point.!!
I doubt mafia would risk a counterclaim and we could have a confirmed town.
I thought it was Jacob or Kreb. Kreb obviously made a case for drazak before his if-I-die-post, Jacob made a case n2 as well. But basically anyone who read Kreb's post could've made the shot if they found it convincing. That's why I found it weird why anyone would be so sure. Obviously if Kreb was vig there's not going to be any claim.
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DO NOT DISCUSS VIG!
Fuck, I knew I should've thought this through before posting. We should not discuss the vig. If the vig is around he can wait to claim d4 or d5 when it's more valuable. Only if he's about to get lynched he should claim.
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On September 08 2012 22:20 kushm4sta wrote:
@sonic check the first mod post. Vig only has 1 shot all game long. He is useless now except as someone who can roleclaim and
Confirm town.
Ps my phone bat is running low quickly so expect a sudden drop off of activity.
Doesn't matter. Vig shouldn't claim. If X is vig and gets to a three person end game, he can claim and we increase our chances drastically. If he claims now he gets whacked and we have no information in the end game. Only if he's up for lynching should he claim.
The problem is if Kreb is vig, that leaves it wide open for fake roleclaim. Will have to think more, but don't discuss who's vig yet and don't claim before we've thought this through.
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On September 08 2012 22:31 kushm4sta wrote:
Nice I found a charger.
@Sonic who do you think we shouldLynch d3? Aka who is your strongest scum read atm. Because we can't get this wrong.
I think Killing is the strongest case, but I'm unsure if we gain enough info if he flips red (it would give one more day of getting info though). We shouldn't focus too much on one player yet. I need to think this through more but I don't have the time atm.
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On September 08 2012 23:33 kushm4sta wrote:
@sonic kreb was a vanilla townie it said so when he was killed.
I think we should focus on 1 person. We have no certain mafia yet, so relying of associative cases, looking for the scumteam before the scum adds too much complexity, too many variables to our search.
I think kiLLing is the most scumlike person and the best lynch. Do people agree or not?
Oh fuck, I was being stupid. That means: Absolutely no vig claim and no discussion of the vig.
I think we should focus on at least a few different candidates. Let's hear others opinions though.
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On September 08 2012 23:57 JacobStrangelove wrote:Show nested quote +On September 08 2012 21:49 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Still, from the last days I'm leaning townie on Kush, scum on Xatalos (although Kreb's point that it's a null read has some merit), currently I'm pretty neutral on Jacob and imcasey is a total null read. Jacob, could you address my post from yesterday? I don't understand the imcasey = sure townie argument. I don't have a lot of time atm so I won't throw out random team reads. I will make sure to be back later tonight though. In this post you basically list three null reads. (you say leaning scum on xatalos but you leave it open with the krebs point) But I just don’t understand how I can be a neutral read, I am 93 posts in on this thread. Not saying post count is an indication of town but I would have to be the freaking genius of the world to pull something like this off and not slip. Also your town read (obvious town read on kush) thinks I am town, kreb thought I was town, I was opposed to a kville lynch (who was town) and was going at killing all game (who seems most likely scum in the eyes of kush and I and now xatalos). Either I am mafia that looked at the other mafia players and went ehh who cares about them I’ma play for town or I am amazing, the other option of course is that I am town.
Yeah, that post wasn't very clear. You could probably tell I was throwing out a lot of half finished thoughts earlier today. I got some time to clarify now though. The first paragraph (the one you didn't quote) was meant to explain the latest developments of my reads. That is, Stutters' answers to my questions gave him a decent amount of town points in my mind. The fact that I think that the Stutter vs Killing feud is unlikely to be fabricated automatically means this makes me more suspicious of Killing.
The second paragraph on the other hand (the one you quoted), was meant as a brief summary of my reads from earlier, that's why it opens with "from the last days". That's reads I haven't found a reason to change on d3. I've explained my reasoning on my Kush read so many times before, I don't think I need to do it again. Xatalos has been one of my long time suspects, but the post you quoted was made before he started making productive contributions on d3. Still haven't read those posts, will go back and do that as soon as I can. My read on imcasey is weak, he hasn't posted a lot at all. That's why I was asking questions about your read, hoping to start a discussion, but I still don't think you've responded (I might be wrong, if you've posted on d3 I might've missed it). My reasoning for why I'm not sold on your imcasey = sure townie is clearly spelled out though, the ball's on your court.
You raise an interesting question, my take on you. That hasn't been explained. I went after you on d2 after your filter coming back very non-committal. I never really had you as a prime suspect but at that point we needed to put some heat back on active posters after a d1 of lurker hunting. Anyway, in the end you gave quite satisfactory answers and your long-ass n2 post had some solid analysis. Also, and like you said, you've made a lot of post and they've been long. In my experience spazzy scum players tends not to make too many long-winded posts. If they do, you'll usually be able to find a good case looking through their posts.
Now to why I don't fully trust you. Early game you were very indecisive. The only case you had was the Killer case, but even that you didn't fully commit to. Now you claim imcasey is 99% townie and make confident statements about Killing, Stutters, drazak and vig reads. When I question some of those reads, you don't even respond. Why so confident now and why don't you answer those questions? It seems to fit scum strategy very well not to point too many fingers early game, just to push your agenda late game.
On September 08 2012 23:57 JacobStrangelove wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:Alright, a couple of thoughts. @Sonic Death MonkeyYou also say The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum. If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.) I know you replied to this but it still stands that you voted for someone not your scum read. Stutters could be busing Killing time however his case was put up when I was the only one even kind of on him and even then I was doubting myself (at the time) also what you are doing is more bus style play. You are seeing there is a good argument and saying yeah I see your points. Maybe you are both bussing him. I mainly just want answers (simmilar thing to was I was doing to killing a while back) as we need everything we can get.
I didn't vote against my scum read. My #1 scum read was Stutters and I voted for him. The discussion was about my ranking of #3 and #4 picks. Kind of a hypothetical discussion and I still think my reasons behind it is solid.
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EPT
