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Lol kush chill...
But you want people to chime in so I will just to be clear I will state what I think is happening feel free to correct me. We are discussing Kville being bad town according to Kush and you are focusing on Drazzak. Kreb is saying Drazzak as a town read and then kville as a focus point. Assuming we are ignoring stutters (who is the person I would go for over xatalos due to the useful town problem if the flip goes wrong) I will chime in.
I think you are both wrong in some respects. First off Kush might have a slight OMGUS syndrome to drazak and Kreb is doing a horrible job defending Drazak (with the over analysis part). Considering that xatalos and drazak are under suspicion there could be a connection but I will have to look into it for myself. Just stating what is going on.
While his case was suspicious, on kush it was impossible. A mafia wouldn’t push a case that is so blatantly hard to even get rolling. I considered it however decided soon after that it was not the case. This is very important. It’s literally an impossible case.
The read kreb has on drazak is fine for the most part with the exception to the guilt thing. That is a way over analysis... that is kind of the stuff I do. When I do that stuff though I don’t make it my all in all case for truth it’s just circumstantial. You spent way to long on that one line while it is true it’s only a slight and I mean SLIGHT bonus read for drazak. Honestly I would go with drazak as more of a town read(because of him pushing an impossible case) but I haven’t checked on on the xatalos/drazak defence yet. So I will post this and do that now.
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Also on drazak he posted his twitter gave the option for photos about the move (yes going though the filters) and sleeps strange hours. He would have to be a master scum. For me He is town.
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I have half a post written regarding kush's poor defense, will post it when I go to bed (and pull out my laptop).
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EBWOP it's on my other computer, which is why I'm not finishing it now, heh.
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Been reading the back and forth between you guys (Kreb and Kush). I think I underestimated the difficulty to get decent wagons going in time d1 (like Kush pointed out), so I agree it's time to get started. So your suggestions are:
Kush: Xatalos, drazak, KillingTime
Kreb: Xatalos, kville, Stutters
I agree about Xatalos, so he seems set. I'll write a summary of what's suspicious about Xatalos, but my time during the day is limited so don't expect it until 8-10h before EOD (and that's when I'll put my vote in).
About your differences: Unless someone comes up with good cases against drazak and KillingTime I don't see myself giving them my vote today. I've been going through KillingTime's filter and just don't find him very suspicious, neither do I find Jacob's case strong (as I've explained before). With regards to drazak I haven't gone through his filter lately but he just hasn't struck me as suspicious. I won't put time into researching him now because there are better candidates.
My d1 suspicion of Stutters remain. He made a good post today, but we need more of that. It's just sooo easy to lurk and post one good post a day. In that post he implied he'd be more helpful today and that's really required. The same can be said about Kville. So basically I agree with Kreb and the bolded posters will get my vote tonight.
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Ok, having re-read through a bunch of filters today I think we should lynch Stutters695 - Yes his posting/lurking has been/is reason enough to lynch him. But, reading back through filters there has been way to much redirection of discussion away from him as a good lynch - particularly from kush.
First : Kush, who on Day 1 was very eager to see Cubu lynched, and made numerous posts deflecting attention away from stutters equally terrible posting (and he convinced town to mislynch - not necessarily his fault ofc, but...).
Here, just after stutters has made his first substantive (no real scumhunting though, just pointless arguing) post, Krush soon starts to push his lynch wagon on other targets:
So it seems like the consensus is to lynch either cubu or kville. Anyone not feel this way?
Well, clearly alot of people did not feel that way, but Kush was very good at pushing (Cubu over other targets). Here he redirects the suspicion of our confirmed town player with a poor defence (Stutters posts d1 were NOT helpful, in depth & coherent - they essentially amounted to "look guys I am somewhat active and these guys are not - lynch them instead")
So the drazak didn't work out for you? Now you aim your sights at Stutters. Stutters over Cuba makes ZERO sense to me.
He is not the ideal townie, but if you compare his filter to Cuba's, the difference is night and day. As town Stutters appears to be much more helpful, writing in depth and coherently. You are right he has offered no scum read yet. However he still has 8 hours and as he explained he is not a very active poster. On the other hand look at cuba's "scum read." It's more like a defense: you can't lynch him for lurking because kville is lurking way harder. And then he also accuses drazak...hmm that's interesting..but I'll get to that next post.
Equally on Day 2 Kush is keen to portray stutters as basically a null read and focus discussion elsewhere.
Stutters has been lurking hard day 2. His recent kville accusations have been very safe. At this point kville is the safest person to suspect, just because his play has been so WTF. However, I do appreciate his recent contributions on kville's metagame and I think that was a good post. I'm ok with stutters as a focus but I would prefer someone else.
But then, again straight after that he is again trying to establish a consensus on a lynch that does not include stutters
So can we come to a consensus about people we want to focus investigation on? Xatalos and who else? I like drazak but kreb doesn't it seems like. Any other input on the matter?
Again I want to avoid lurkers who don't really have much to talk about.
Xatalos has done a similar thing (to a lesser extent) - throughout much of the game redirecting suspicion away from stutters (though it may be less intentional in his cas)
Here he is:
The case against WeeTee (imcasey) is quite good IMO. At least I think it's much stronger than the policy lynching of kville or the suspicions toward Stutters695.
but then, when I (and jacob? - not sure, I am not reading jacobs shitstorm of a filter again to find out) were confused why he thought this he says
I don't think I've ever said that WeeTee was much more likely Mafia than Stutters695? They've seemed somewhat equally scummy all this time, in my opinion. Where did this misunderstanding come from?
But in that post he is at least happy to discuss Stutters as a lynch.
Now, this does not mean that both Kush & Xatalos are mafia if stutters flips - but that is WAY too much subtle redirecting of a target for me. Stutters is as scummy as anyone at this point, if he flips we will have some strong targets for d3.
If we lynch him and he is not mafia, town is in a bad spot - but we are in a bad spot regardless of who we lynch if they flip and are not mafia (kreb has convinced me of this with his case against kville that there is no point not going for lurkers.).
I think kville is not a terrible lynch. But Stutters is better and more scummy, and throws alot of suspicions on others who seem to have been redirecting a/the serious Stutters wagon so far...
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On September 06 2012 07:36 JacobStrangelove wrote:
1. If it’s a standard early lurk accusation then why mention it?
Yes I did throw around connections and because of that I now know that both you and killing are far less likely to be scum. Remember there are town motivations for accusing people especially early day one when you don’t have much to go on. You can look at the reactions and see how people respond or ignore things. For example, Xatatos just re-entered the thread and didn’t mention a thing about the accusations against him. Whereas both you and killing have without giving me much to go on(in way of mafia reads).
2. I tend to scum hunt differently because if I can confirm enough people town logically the rest must be mafia. Then you can look at the people remaining and go from most suspicious to least.
3. Of course I find the argument weak there was almost no argument strong at all day one. Wouldn’t lynch cubu because cubu was an easy day two lynch. I have been taking a risk with killing insinuations however due to that and the responses I have gotten as I said in the last through posts he is getting more and more town like. Opposed to Xatatos.
1. I just wanted to include it so that my post would be a fair representation of your suspicion of KillingTime (the post might be helpful later).
2. Could you provide a post where you explain those town reads clearly? Your writing is really confusing so you need to straight that up.
3. Why were you attacking KillingTimes though? Please explain the reason you've been attacking him all game and what it was in his postings that made you think he looks more town now.
Btw it's really easy to slip away from questions by not quoting the post you're replying to, so please reply to these questions.
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Alright, I was afk most of the day.
First I'd like to point something out about Kush's posting behavior, he tries to downplay my accusations, and say that my case is bad, deciding that there is almost no case against him in his first responding post. Kush goes on to make /4/ posts responding to my accusation and then accusing me. In his posts, he either delays replying to me, which if my argument is weak, makes no sense, it should be simple to pick apart. In the meantime, I've been afk and have made 0. This seems like a bit over an overreaction if he's innocent and my accusation is weak.
+ Show Spoiler +- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16133744
- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16133615
- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16144834
- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16140589
You sir, have made a big slip, every time you're accused you throw it right back at your accuser, this is the weakest of the defenses, espescially when your case is weak.
I urge the rest of the town to actually look at my arguments, instead of dismissing them as a weak case, look through kush's filter, and the posts I've described and linked, he's made a large scumslip here, at first my accusations were fairly tenative due to having only moderate evidence, but instead of his defense making my case weaker, he's made it stronger.
P.S. sorry for taking so long to post, was going to hours ago and then had dinner with a friend, when I got home I had other stuff to do on my other pc, and then fell asleep for a little after I got my laptop out.
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A small addition to my case against Kville, compared to Xatalos:
Xatalos has been receiving quite a lot of suspicions lately. His defense has largely been that he's busy and unable to post. Now thats not a defense you immediately trust exactly, but the thing it that it is a defense. He is actually trying to get off the hook and post reasons for his behavior. He is also aware of his Cubu vote not being convincing. Now, none of those comment mean he is town, but he is trying to appear town at least, which every town should do. Kville, on the other hand, is.... not.... trying!
There is little reason you would want to not try as mafia, but theres even less reason if your town. Why would you not want to even give the crappiest defense against accusation? He could have posted one sentence about being busy. He could have posted some weak theory why self-voting and not contributing as good for town (even if he knows the theory is terrible, posting a theory at least gives the impression that he's trying). But he has posted absolutely nothing.
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Reading the last couple of pages Kreb comes off as townie to me. He seems really interested in scumhunting, makes good points and is helping filling the role of thrawn. This is kind of enforcing the impression I've had of him earlier. I haven't commented on him because those reads without hard facts are usually not great, but I think his posts have been solid, so he gets a townie lean from me.
However, Kreb, I disagree with a couple of things. Your read on drazak being "sorry" is thoughtful and has merit, but it seems like you're putting too much weight into it. Also, I don't think drazak's case against Kush is very similar to Kush's early attack against you. Kush's early attack was kind of a spazz move at a time we had not much to go on, drazak's case just seems poorly reasoned at a time we got a lot of info to work with. This could both be done by a careless townie or a scum pushing an ulterior motive. I don't see what Kush's ulterior motive would've been.
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Thanks for posting my D1 accusations of kville, he doesn't try, doesn't post, and we can't even read him. This is why I felt he was a better D1 lynch than a D2+ lynch. Cubu had posts and a defense and stuff, we could read him.
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On September 06 2012 13:31 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Also on drazak he posted his twitter gave the option for photos about the move (yes going though the filters) and sleeps strange hours. He would have to be a master scum. For me He is town.
Sleeping strange hours and moving is townie? Drazak is pretty much a null read for me atm.
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On September 06 2012 17:28 drazak wrote:Alright, I was afk most of the day. First I'd like to point something out about Kush's posting behavior, he tries to downplay my accusations, and say that my case is bad, deciding that there is almost no case against him in his first responding post. Kush goes on to make /4/ posts responding to my accusation and then accusing me. In his posts, he either delays replying to me, which if my argument is weak, makes no sense, it should be simple to pick apart. In the meantime, I've been afk and have made 0. This seems like a bit over an overreaction if he's innocent and my accusation is weak. + Show Spoiler +- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16133744
- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16133615
- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16144834
- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16140589
You sir, have made a big slip, every time you're accused you throw it right back at your accuser, this is the weakest of the defenses, espescially when your case is weak. I urge the rest of the town to actually look at my arguments, instead of dismissing them as a weak case, look through kush's filter, and the posts I've described and linked, he's made a large scumslip here, at first my accusations were fairly tenative due to having only moderate evidence, but instead of his defense making my case weaker, he's made it stronger. P.S. sorry for taking so long to post, was going to hours ago and then had dinner with a friend, when I got home I had other stuff to do on my other pc, and then fell asleep for a little after I got my laptop out.
I'd urge you to post your voting candidates, if you have any beyond kush. Obviously you are suspicious of Kush, but whats your other possible targets? If you're gonna go through with a kush-vote, that might not be wrong if you're totally convinced he is mafia, but at least be aware that the chances of getting a kush lynch is slim at very best.
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I'm honestly a little surprised others aren't chiming in on this, you seem to be the only one kreb. I'll have some more suspiscions for you in the morning, gotta read filters/etc and I've only slept a little.
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On September 06 2012 17:40 drazak wrote:
I'm honestly a little surprised others aren't chiming in on this, you seem to be the only one kreb. I'll have some more suspiscions for you in the morning, gotta read filters/etc and I've only slept a little.
I've been catching up on the rest of the thread. Will comment on your new posts when I get back (haven't had the chance to read them yet).
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On September 06 2012 17:32 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
However, Kreb, I disagree with a couple of things. Your read on drazak being "sorry" is thoughtful and has merit, but it seems like you're putting too much weight into it. Also, I don't think drazak's case against Kush is very similar to Kush's early attack against you. Kush's early attack was kind of a spazz move at a time we had not much to go on, drazak's case just seems poorly reasoned at a time we got a lot of info to work with. This could both be done by a careless townie or a scum pushing an ulterior motive. I don't see what Kush's ulterior motive would've been.
Fair enough, maybe I'm giving Drazak too much towncred. I was just kind of annoyed with how they kept going on each other. Drazaks attack came out of nowhere to me, and then Kush snapped back unnecessarily. What troubled me was that the longer that would have gone on, the happier the mafia would be.
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My accusation wasn't out of nowhere, I made a read based on what happened, I reasoned, carefully. I saw that Kush wasn't scumhunting day 1. If you're not scumhunting, you're not furthering town, if you're not furthering town... you're mafia. I then saw kush slipped by overreacting to me. Feel free to poke holes in my actual reasoning instead of calling me scum for making a reasoned accusation.
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Accusations are how you gain information, you pressure people, find out what they're thinking, see how they react. I was pressured, generally you guys decided my reaction was town. I pressured kush and he scumslipped and you're not doing anything, wow.
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On September 06 2012 17:02 KillingTime wrote:Ok, having re-read through a bunch of filters today I think we should lynch Stutters695 - Yes his posting/lurking has been/is reason enough to lynch him. But, reading back through filters there has been way to much redirection of discussion away from him as a good lynch - particularly from kush. First : Kush, who on Day 1 was very eager to see Cubu lynched, and made numerous posts deflecting attention away from stutters equally terrible posting (and he convinced town to mislynch - not necessarily his fault ofc, but...). Here, just after stutters has made his first substantive (no real scumhunting though, just pointless arguing) post, Krush soon starts to push his lynch wagon on other targets: Show nested quote +So it seems like the consensus is to lynch either cubu or kville. Anyone not feel this way? Well, clearly alot of people did not feel that way, but Kush was very good at pushing (Cubu over other targets). Here he redirects the suspicion of our confirmed town player with a poor defence (Stutters posts d1 were NOT helpful, in depth & coherent - they essentially amounted to "look guys I am somewhat active and these guys are not - lynch them instead") Show nested quote +
So the drazak didn't work out for you? Now you aim your sights at Stutters. Stutters over Cuba makes ZERO sense to me.
He is not the ideal townie, but if you compare his filter to Cuba's, the difference is night and day. As town Stutters appears to be much more helpful, writing in depth and coherently. You are right he has offered no scum read yet. However he still has 8 hours and as he explained he is not a very active poster. On the other hand look at cuba's "scum read." It's more like a defense: you can't lynch him for lurking because kville is lurking way harder. And then he also accuses drazak...hmm that's interesting..but I'll get to that next post.
Equally on Day 2 Kush is keen to portray stutters as basically a null read and focus discussion elsewhere. Show nested quote +Stutters has been lurking hard day 2. His recent kville accusations have been very safe. At this point kville is the safest person to suspect, just because his play has been so WTF. However, I do appreciate his recent contributions on kville's metagame and I think that was a good post. I'm ok with stutters as a focus but I would prefer someone else. But then, again straight after that he is again trying to establish a consensus on a lynch that does not include stutters Show nested quote + So can we come to a consensus about people we want to focus investigation on? Xatalos and who else? I like drazak but kreb doesn't it seems like. Any other input on the matter?
Again I want to avoid lurkers who don't really have much to talk about. Xatalos has done a similar thing (to a lesser extent) - throughout much of the game redirecting suspicion away from stutters (though it may be less intentional in his cas) Here he is: Show nested quote +The case against WeeTee (imcasey) is quite good IMO. At least I think it's much stronger than the policy lynching of kville or the suspicions toward Stutters695. but then, when I (and jacob? - not sure, I am not reading jacobs shitstorm of a filter again to find out) were confused why he thought this he says Show nested quote +I don't think I've ever said that WeeTee was much more likely Mafia than Stutters695? They've seemed somewhat equally scummy all this time, in my opinion. Where did this misunderstanding come from? But in that post he is at least happy to discuss Stutters as a lynch. Now, this does not mean that both Kush & Xatalos are mafia if stutters flips - but that is WAY too much subtle redirecting of a target for me. Stutters is as scummy as anyone at this point, if he flips we will have some strong targets for d3. If we lynch him and he is not mafia, town is in a bad spot - but we are in a bad spot regardless of who we lynch if they flip and are not mafia (kreb has convinced me of this with his case against kville that there is no point not going for lurkers.). I think kville is not a terrible lynch. But Stutters is better and more scummy, and throws alot of suspicions on others who seem to have been redirecting a/the serious Stutters wagon so far...
This case is so shortsighted and full of holes.
First please explain how day 1 was me just saying "look guys I am somewhat active and these guys are not - lynch them instead" (bolded part is Killing Time's). I explained my reasoning in voting Cubu, why I was also in favor of a Kville lynch (still am since he hasn't responded yet again) and provided insight and questions to Kville that will help to determine his alignment (assuming he comes back).
The rest of your post is all about how Kush and Xatalos thinking I'm not the worst lynch D1 somehow means if I'm scum there is a really good chance they're scum.
First I'd like to direct you to Marv's guidance after XXIV Associative cases - don't bloody do them until someone has flipped. They're bad.
Following that notion: What happens when I flip town? All you've done is gotten a townie lynched and your associative case is worthless. You've put town at 5/3 going into D3 and provided absolutely nothing useful from my lynch except the same type of info that you'd get from seeing how people react to any lynch.
Even if I were scum (I'm not), all your case does is lynch a scum through poor reasoning. It doesn't in any way implicate them. Kush has only a couple of posts that relate to me at all. One that was more challenging someone else pushing me for lurking over Kville (Kville has obviously been lurking harder than I have, not to mention the quality of posts). His other major post relating to me and not being lynched is his saying D2 he'd prefer someone else because of my meta read on Kville. If you don't buy that you should be questioning him, not pushing a lynch on someone because I didn't want to get lynched D1 when I know I'm town and Cubu and Kville seemed sketchy to me.
This is what really got me though
On September 06 2012 17:02 KillingTime wrote:
I think kville is not a terrible lynch. But Stutters is better and more scummy, and throws alot of suspicions on others who seem to have been redirecting a/the serious Stutters wagon so far...
Please explain what part of my play has been more scummy than someone who has been trolling the thread and not contributed anything?
##FoS Killing Time
I need to go through his filter but this isn't the first time he hasn't taken a stance on issues while posting "reads" that don't actually commit longterm.
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I am going to reply to sonic in this post as quoted
On September 06 2012 17:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 13:31 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Also on drazak he posted his twitter gave the option for photos about the move (yes going though the filters) and sleeps strange hours. He would have to be a master scum. For me He is town. Sleeping strange hours and moving is townie? Drazak is pretty much a null read for me atm.
I am just saying he was mostly lurking day one but he had reasons. Sure he might be mafia with these same reasons but we are talking about real reasons that really happened. After that he has been much more active and helpful, this was not the extent of it though read the post right above this and you see my comment about pushing such a solid townie at the time. This said there has been some discussion over kush at the moment now that things have calmed down. (will get to this later)
On September 06 2012 17:15 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
1. I just wanted to include it so that my post would be a fair representation of your suspicion of KillingTime (the post might be helpful later).
Fair enough.
On September 06 2012 17:15 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
2. Could you provide a post where you explain those town reads clearly? Your writing is really confusing so you need to straight that up.
I will list the townish people most I have given reasons for before.
Sonic
Myself!
Imcasey
Drazak
Killingtime(but I am watching him with a 10 foot pole)
Kreb
This leaves
Stutters
Kville
xatalos
and kush just now (who I am becoming aware of)
Looking at this list kush defends stutters by avoiding talking about him (see drazaks post) this also leaves us seeing xatalos semi defending stutters. Kville is nowhere.
See with a list like this town and scum you can see the links. A kush stutters xalalos team could be the answer. I would vote stutters instead of kville as if we vote kville we get nothing from he flip but you can see what we would gain from a stutters flip.
HOWEVER stutters just posted turning my thoughts to confusion. To be open I will post this the way it was going to be but including stuff referring to the stutters thing.
He says we won’t gain from a stutters flip if he flips town. If he flips scum however we would gain everything. So he says lynch killing. If killing flips mafia then I am probably confirmed town “yay” but if he flips green town town will instant lynch me. Which if stutters is mafia would win the game. Also would like to point out that a lynch on kville reveals nothing as well.
Associative cases are pretty bad I must admit but they can provide a little information.
On September 06 2012 17:15 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
3. Why were you attacking KillingTimes though? Please explain the reason you've been attacking him all game and what it was in his postings that made you think he looks more town now.
Btw it's really easy to slip away from questions by not quoting the post you're replying to, so please reply to these questions.
I was attacking killingtime because he seemed to be ignoring the things I said about him in favour of just posting reads. The reason I town read you is you seem to have responded better initially so I temporarily town read you. I was getting frustrated as his semi avoidant approach however as the game went on he started replying in a manner that I would expect. The reason I attacked you and killing time so much is I realised you both thought in the same manner so
1. If you were both mafia we were screwed unless I could force you to make a slip early.
2. By attacking him I could have more to look at
3. If I could confirm you guys town it would make scum hunting so much easier.
It wasn’t so much about scum slips you had made (I was just nitpicking) it was about forcing the two most scary people. Into a situation they probably would. Part of the reason I think he is town now is I haven’t found anything unusual in his postings. (Apart from a growing annoyance of me which is to be expected and I apologise for) Although there might be something in stutters case just now.
Drazak seems to be having the same idea
On September 06 2012 18:05 drazak wrote:
Accusations are how you gain information, you pressure people, find out what they're thinking, see how they react. I was pressured; generally you guys decided my reaction was town. I pressured kush and he scumslipped and you're not doing anything, wow.
Although just a note kush is known for overreaction for no apparent reason.
Yeah I understand, I was just really short for time at the time and wanted to get a post in reply up.
On a side note how long till lynch? I think the night period messed up my internal clock.
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EPT
