Mafia is an educated guessing game of epic proportions. The objective of the game is to lynch or kill all mafia members before they outnumber the rest of the town. It's much like a game of poker because mafia members are also part of the town during the day and may manipulate the vote to their liking. If the mafia at any time outnumber or equal the townspeople, they win. The town's goal is to lynch all the members of the mafia.
The game is typically very active, so the thread will get big quickly. However, it is essential to read the thread to play the game. If you do not have the time or patience to read the whole thread, do not play. I will not compensate for ignorance.
Rules:
Cheating: Cheating includes (but is not limited to): 1. Posting after death. You may have one polite goodbye post, but it may not contain any potentially game-changing information. 2. Ruining the game by doing something like hand out your mafia's member list to the town. 3. Logging on to someone else's account to get their role or looking over someone's shoulder to get their role. 4. Comparing role PM times to determine roles. 5. Posting screenshots of your inbox. 6. Posting or sharing any PM you receive from a host. 7. Getting yourself modkilled to help your team. Your non-majority-decided death may not be used as a bargaining chip. 8. Signing up more than once using smurf accounts. 9. Betting items outside of the game in exchange for in-game benefits. 10. Sharing accounts with other players unless cleared by the host in advance. Otherwise, only you may post on your account. 11. Breadcrumbing the specific phrasing of your role PM. Do not compare the phrasing in your role PM to prove your alignment. You can claim the abilities you have, but you can't use the specific phrasing of your role PM. Cheating is not tolerated here. The punishment will be severe.
Posting:
Mod Font: This is mod font. It is reserved for moderators. Please do not use it.
Rules specific to this game are also shown in blue text in this thread.
Question Font: This is question font. Use it to ask the moderators questions about the rules. Please do us a favor and read the rules before you ask anything.
Activity: You must post in this thread once per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled.
Smurfs: No smurfs please
Spam: Please keep out of topic chatter out of the thread.
Editing: Editing is not allowed for any reason. Editing will result in a warning. After that, you will be modkilled. This is the one part of the site where it is okay to be double posting, even triple-posting. While I ask for everybody to post as concisely as possible, post again if you have to edit anything.
Inappropriate posts: If you want to post something insulting or inappropriate and know the TL mods would have a problem with it elsewhere, don't post it here. If you do, a host will warn you or modkill you and request that you be banned from future games. The hosts have the final say on what is inappropriate. If you do not like how someone is talking to you, please PM a host, Flamewheel, or Mig before involving the TL staff. If you are unsatisfied with how the situation is resolved, then you can appeal to the TL staff normally.
I expect everyone to treat each other civilly. Attack the argument, not the player. Failure to do so will result in a warning, followed by a modkill if inappropriate posting continues
Reporting posts: The report button is a nice feature for regular TL, but not for this forum. We prefer to deal with things in house if possible to avoid confusion among the TL staff. If you have a problem with how someone is posting, talk to the host, co-host, Flamewheel, or Mig before using your report button. Please do not use your report button for anything other than inappropriate posts which you feel are not being dealt with adequately.
Ban discussions: Please wait until this game is over to talk about modkills and bans resulting from this game.
Play to win. This means you play your best to help your team win while you are alive and in the game. However, this does not mean that you should try to win by being a jerk to the other players so they all want to quit playing.
This also means that you cannot leave the game without a good reason without a ban. These situations will be dealt with on a case by case basis. PM your host if you need to leave the game.
You have been warned.
Voting rules:
1. Voting is done here. Please keep votes here, and only vote here. Do not PM me your vote. 2. Please vote in the following format: ##Vote Kavdragon. Votes not done in the correct fashion will not be counted. I will update vote counts whenever I get the chance. 3. No conditional voting. 4. You may vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game. 5. In the event of a tie the person with the most votes first is lynched. 6. Voting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain. 7. Whomever has the most votes at the end of the day will be lynched!
Signups:
This game is open to Newbies Only. That means 3 games or less played on TL.
Game-specific rules:
Modkills: This game follows the TL Mafia Ban List. If you are modkilled, your punishment will go beyond being eliminated from this game. Please refer to it for questions about your punishment. If you want to use this game to sit out your ban, please PM Flamewheel or post in the Ban List.
Replacements This game will use replacements if possible. You are encouraged to find your own replacement.
Clues: There are no clues.
PMs PMs are not allowed in this game.
Time Cycle: This game will follow a 24 hour night/48 hour day cycle. In case I am not able to post around deadline, any votes after the 48 hour mark will not count and the game will be put on halt until the night post is up. Currently the deadline is 01:00 GMT (+00:00), but that is subject to change. Actions/votes will be accepted up to and including the posted time, but not after.
Credits: Thanks to anyone who has ever hosted a game. This list grows ever longer.
If you have not read all the rules, go back and do so.
This is a semi-open setup, that is, exact role counts will not be known, but the possible roles will be known. All roles presented here are not necessarily in the game, but no roles not included here are present.
Town Roles
Townie - You are just a normal citizen with no night actions. All you can do is vote during the day for someone to be lynched. Your wits and your votes will carry the town to glorious victory or shameful defeat.
Cop - You've been on the department for years. You're sharp and perceptive. Once at night you may choose a single person to investigate. At dawn you will find out if they are Town or Mafia. You win with the town.
Medic - As the town's doctor, your medical knowledge and healing skills give you the power to save lives. Once per night you can watch a player. If your target is attacked, you will block one hit aimed at them. If you make a successful save, both you and your target will be notified of the save. You cannot save yourself. You win with the town.
Veteran - You're as tough as they come. You've been around the block a few times and know how to escape an attack on your life. It takes two attacks to kill you. You win with the town.
Jailkeeper - Equipped with chloroform and rope, you steal into the night to kidnap a random person and lock them in your basement “for safety”. Once per night, you may target a player to protect and roleblock. You win with the town.
Vigilante - You hate criminals, you hate them SO much. You dispise the system, and have taken justice into your own hands. Once per game, at night, you may target one player to shoot with one kp. You win with the town.
Miller - You are just an ordinary citizen of the town of Liquidia. Well, almost ordinary. Unbeknownst to you, you sleepwalk and often end up visiting the graveyard and other suspicious locations. For that reason, you return Mafia to detectives who choose to check you. Millers are not informed that they are millers; rather, they are given regular vanilla townie PMs. The Miller will be revealed as a Miller upon his/her death. The Miller is on the side of the Townies and wins if they win.
Town Win Condition - The town wins when there are no mafia left in the game
Mafia Roles
Mafia Goon - You're a new recruit in the mafia organization. You haven't learned any special tricks yet but you're hungry for money and power! You win with the mafia.
Mafia Roleblocker - You're a senior member of the mafia. You're good with distractions. Once per night you may choose a person to cause a distraction for. That player will be occupied and unable to perform an action that night. You win with the mafia.
Mafia Framer - You're one of the mafia elites. Years with the mafia have taught you a thing or two about manipulation. Once per night you may choose a person to visit and plant suspicious items in their house. For that night, that person will show as mafia for cops. You win with the mafia.
Mafia Rolecop - You're one of the mafia elites. A former cop, your skills made you a valuable asset to the mafia. Once per night you can investigate a persons house. At dawn you will know the persons role. You win with the mafia.
Mafia Godfather - You're the head of the mafia. You've been the leader for as long as anyone can remember. All those years have taught you one thing. You can never be to carefull. You will show as Town to cops. You win with the mafia.
Mafia Win condition - The mafia wins when they equal or outnumber the remaining townies. Useful Guides
You are a Townie - You are just a normal citizen with no night actions. All you can do is vote during the day for someone to be lynched. Your wits and your votes will carry the town to glorious victory or shameful defeat. Breadcrumbing the content or format of this pm is not allowed.
xxx is your assigned coach. Feel free to pm him for advice, but don't ask direct questions, such as "who do you think is scum". Referencing the identity of your coach is not allowed.
Remember, new players only. That means 3 or fewer games played! This game we will be allowing hydras (two players posting under a shared account). Of course, you may still play by yourself. If you would like to play along with someone, but don't have a partner, give me a pm and I'll try to arrange a match.
/in - Hi, I normally come to team liquid to read the SC2 news stories - but a few weeks ago I randomly clicked the mafia forum and got hooked following the threads of other games. Guess it is about time I tested the waters myself.
On August 29 2012 04:45 drazak wrote: /in - Played some IRL mafia, decided to try out forum mafia, hope that means I'm ok with playing in the newbie mafia.
What? Is it just me or for the past like 5-6 newbie minis there's always someone whose name is the same as an existing mafia player except for a few letters?
I'm certainly not Drazerk's smurf, someone already made a comment about this in the IRL Mafia in Raleigh thread, I don't think Drazerk is an LP contributor. You can check me out on irc.freenode.net, I've had the nick for ~ 7 years. I've met tofucake and DivinO and iGrok IRL. Not sure what else I can do to prove that I'm not a smurf of drazerk other than that.
On August 29 2012 05:29 drazak wrote: I'm certainly not Drazerk's smurf, someone already made a comment about this in the IRL Mafia in Raleigh thread, I don't think Drazerk is an LP contributor. You can check me out on irc.freenode.net, I've had the nick for ~ 7 years. I've met tofucake and DivinO and iGrok IRL. Not sure what else I can do to prove that I'm not a smurf of drazerk other than that.
Oh I wasn't saying you're a smurf. Its just funny since Dr wiggl3s and mrwiggles are also not the same person. I see that silver coin
Ahh sorry, I just think it's funny because iGrok kept calling me drazerk and nobody but tofucake and I got the joke at Raleigh. I guess maybe GMarshal got it but I don't think he was there when iGrok modded us.
What's funny is there's another user running around here somewhere (but not on TL Mafia, he's a blogs dude) who is named like Firehand or something. I should convince him to sign up for this game.
On September 02 2012 05:35 Hapahauli wrote: Hai folks, reporting in as town coach for this fine game! Townies and blue roles, feel free to PM me for coaching and advice (Mafia can also PM me for advice as well, but you'll also have a separate mafia-coach in your QuickTopic thread).
We'll set up a private QuickTopic thread where we'll converse (I will not release the QT without your consent).
This is an optional service - I will only provide help if you contact me!
Things I will help you with unconditionally:
"I'm lost! What do I doooooo?!?!?"
How to establish yourself as town
How to defend yourself from attacks
Persuasive writing and proofreading posts
How to pressure a player
"What questions should I be asking?"
...and more... just ask!
Things I will help you with moderately:
"How do I/you scumhunt?"
"Am I justified in suspecting this player?"
"Did I write a good case against this player? Why?"
"Who should I use my Cop/Medic/Roleblocker night-action on?"
Things I will not help with:
Allignments of specific players.
My reads on specific players.
Antagonizing other players.
"How do I make my e-penis larger?"
"What race should I play in Starcraft 2?"
When in doubt, just ask. There's very little that I won't help with to some extent, and the worst I can say is "no comment" =)
Hey again everyone, would have loved to participate in another mafia, but currently I'm just spending waaay too much of my freetime on GW2. So for this time, observing will have to do.
I've already played in 3 games, but I think my skill level still fits a newbie game I'm in military service now, though, so I can't (mostly) post around deadlines and generally my activity will be much lower this time.
I've already played in 3 games, but I think my skill level still fits a newbie game I'm in military service now, though, so I can't (mostly) post around deadlines and generally my activity will be much lower this time.
I've already played in 3 games, but I think my skill level still fits a newbie game I'm in military service now, though, so I can't (mostly) post around deadlines and generally my activity will be much lower this time.
On August 30 2012 03:16 kushm4sta wrote: I dont really get the point of hydras.
yeah they're basically useless outside of zvz
Sometimes two people want to work together, especially in some complex/themed setups. Maybe one of them doesn't have as much time as he'd like but still wants to participate.
maybe they're like best friends and want to play it together to kinda be like masons but there's only one of you. Maybe one is a strong scumhunter and the other is a strong debater. Also, Carriers OP, mak hydra
Wouldn't a hydra account have the potential to look extremely scummy? There's gotta be some discrepancy between the players' reads/thoughts and that's gonna be extremely obvious in their posts. Are they required to disclose which person is the one making the post? I can see it causing the game to be unnecessarily difficult/confusing for everyone else. Maybe with the upcoming hive tech speed buff they will be used more often but I'm still in agreement with kush in that they are a strange part of this game's role composition.
On August 30 2012 03:56 thrawn2112 wrote: Wouldn't a hydra account have the potential to look extremely scummy? There's gotta be some discrepancy between the players' reads/thoughts and that's gonna be extremely obvious in their posts.
Typically you have a Hydra QT or just IM/chat with your partner and plan out your posts appropriately. Also maybe the two heads will disagree in public. It's not really scummy on its own.
On August 30 2012 03:56 thrawn2112 wrote: Are they required to disclose which person is the one making the post? I can see it causing the game to be unnecessarily difficult/confusing for everyone else.
Varies from host to host. Most hosts say "yes you have to disclose"
I've already played in 3 games, but I think my skill level still fits a newbie game I'm in military service now, though, so I can't (mostly) post around deadlines and generally my activity will be much lower this time.
I've already played in 3 games, but I think my skill level still fits a newbie game I'm in military service now, though, so I can't (mostly) post around deadlines and generally my activity will be much lower this time.
wb man ^_^
How come he gets a wb but I get the boot?
You need 3 games or fewer - Xalatos has 3 previous games and qualifies. You're playing your 4th atm (Normal Mini III), right?
I've already played in 3 games, but I think my skill level still fits a newbie game I'm in military service now, though, so I can't (mostly) post around deadlines and generally my activity will be much lower this time.
wb man ^_^
How come he gets a wb but I get the boot?
You need 3 games or fewer - Xalatos has 3 previous games and qualifies. You're playing your 4th atm (Normal Mini III), right?
Is it possible to start the game before all the slots are filled?
The last game I played only had 9 players and it was kinda boring/slow
I actually thought it was quite quick.
slow in terms of activity level... after the first lynch everyone agreed on the next lynch during N1 and there were only like 2 pages of posts created for the rest of the game
Is it adviced to obs a game or two before joining? I'd be interested to join, but I've never played before. This forum section just recently caught my eyes and had me interested in it? What information do you exactly get as obs?
On August 30 2012 19:52 Kreb wrote: Is it adviced to obs a game or two before joining? I'd be interested to join, but I've never played before. This forum section just recently caught my eyes and had me interested in it? What information do you exactly get as obs?
/obs just means that the host will send you the forum where observers can talk about the game in progress; you get no special information but you might get some insight from people watching.
You can jump right into a game just fine, but also I'd advise to read everything you can. There's a bunch of guides in the OP, and you could read through Newbie XXIV and XXV if you want to get a feel for the games.
Already read through a bunch of guides, so I think I got that covered. I'll give it a shot then, I suppose a few newbie mistakes are expected, or at least accepted, in these games. =)
On August 31 2012 15:24 JacobStrangelove wrote: /in
I'm going to be drunk most of tommorow but if it doesn't start before then I guess It will be fine. Also first game.
Whatever you do, don't even read the thread if you're not completely sober. I was high for a good amount of my first game and I thought/posted a lot of stupid shit.
On August 31 2012 18:00 thrawn2112 wrote: This is probably (99% sure) going to be my last game. I wish you all glhf. Kreb are you suggesting a pregame lynch on our host kitaman27? Sounds fun.
On August 31 2012 18:00 thrawn2112 wrote: This is probably (99% sure) going to be my last game. I wish you all glhf. Kreb are you suggesting a pregame lynch on our host kitaman27? Sounds fun.
ever, or just your last newbie game?
ever... got some irl stuff that's probably gonna happen soon and afterwards I won't have internet.
well, "ever" probably isn't true but at least for a long enough time I might as well call it "ever"
On August 31 2012 18:00 thrawn2112 wrote: This is probably (99% sure) going to be my last game. I wish you all glhf. Kreb are you suggesting a pregame lynch on our host kitaman27? Sounds fun.
ever, or just your last newbie game?
ever... got some irl stuff that's probably gonna happen soon and afterwards I won't have internet.
well, "ever" probably isn't true but at least for a long enough time I might as well call it "ever"
TL has been here a long time. It'll be here when/if you have free time in your life for Mafia again. It *is* pretty time-consuming. I enjoyed coaching and watching you play, and I hope at some point in the future to see you in a game as a fellow player.
yeah you were a big help in XXIV. tl mafia is the best part of the site, it's crazy that I didn't find it till just now. it was always just one of those weird "wtf is this" links in the forum sidebar
On August 31 2012 18:00 thrawn2112 wrote: This is probably (99% sure) going to be my last game. I wish you all glhf. Kreb are you suggesting a pregame lynch on our host kitaman27? Sounds fun.
Do you mind having Europeans playing this game btw? I might miss a lot of EODs, but will of course always make sure to get my vote in like a good villager... or mobster.
On September 01 2012 00:31 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Sweet!
Do you mind having Europeans playing this game btw? I might miss a lot of EODs, but will of course always make sure to get my vote in like a good villager... or mobster.
Nah, TLMafia has people playing all over the world. Just be active and read, ect, and you should be fine. Just watch out for those last minute vote switches =D
On September 01 2012 01:22 KillingTime wrote: SonicDeath did you ever play WH40K? your name reminds me of that dodgy chaos faction who used to kill with music :D
1. Will we know which roles are in play? 2. Edit: dumb question 3. I assume the police is like a standard seer role and he's supposed to give hints along the way to be used at his death.
On September 01 2012 07:10 kitaman27 wrote: Game will start tommorrow at 9pm EST. Be sure to reply to your confirmation pms which will be going out shortly
awww.... no chance of it happening today?
btw guys, on sept 11th i'm moving out of apartment so my posting will be at a minimum that day
On September 01 2012 07:23 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: A few questions before we get started:
1. Will we know which roles are in play? 2. Edit: dumb question 3. I assume the police is like a standard seer role and he's supposed to give hints along the way to be used at his death.
1. Players will know what roles are POSSIBLY in the game, not the exact number of roles. We like to be mysterious. 2. There are no dumb questions... Only dumb answers. 3. If there is a cop in this setup, each night he chooses one person to inspect, with the result being either Town or Mafia. There are things that can interfere with the results of your inspection, such as Mafia Godfathers (scum that checks as town), Millers (Town that checks as Mafia), and Mafia Framers (causes results to be opposite for one person), so you must use the results of your investigation with the general play of the person in question to get a read. If the cop dies without sharing his results, they are lost.
On September 01 2012 07:10 kitaman27 wrote: Game will start tommorrow at 9pm EST. Be sure to reply to your confirmation pms which will be going out shortly
awww.... no chance of it happening today?
btw guys, on sept 11th i'm moving out of apartment so my posting will be at a minimum that day
Sorry, with newbie games I find that a day's worth of notice is usually necessary since there are always a few who don't check their pms every day.
On September 01 2012 07:23 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: A few questions before we get started:
1. Will we know which roles are in play? 2. Edit: dumb question 3. I assume the police is like a standard seer role and he's supposed to give hints along the way to be used at his death.
1. Players will know what roles are POSSIBLY in the game, not the exact number of roles. We like to be mysterious. 2. There are no dumb questions... Only dumb answers. 3. If there is a cop in this setup, each night he chooses one person to inspect, with the result being either Town or Mafia. There are things that can interfere with the results of your inspection, such as Mafia Godfathers (scum that checks as town), Millers (Town that checks as Mafia), and Mafia Framers (causes results to be opposite for one person), so you must use the results of your investigation with the general play of the person in question to get a read. If the cop dies without sharing his results, they are lost.
Is there a maximum of one of each role listed except for the vanilla villager?
On September 01 2012 07:23 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: A few questions before we get started:
1. Will we know which roles are in play? 2. Edit: dumb question 3. I assume the police is like a standard seer role and he's supposed to give hints along the way to be used at his death.
1. Players will know what roles are POSSIBLY in the game, not the exact number of roles. We like to be mysterious. 2. There are no dumb questions... Only dumb answers. 3. If there is a cop in this setup, each night he chooses one person to inspect, with the result being either Town or Mafia. There are things that can interfere with the results of your inspection, such as Mafia Godfathers (scum that checks as town), Millers (Town that checks as Mafia), and Mafia Framers (causes results to be opposite for one person), so you must use the results of your investigation with the general play of the person in question to get a read. If the cop dies without sharing his results, they are lost.
Is there a maximum of one of each role listed except for the vanilla villager?
This is going to be a complete mindfuck
no maximum or minimum. but it's pretty standard to have no more than 1 of each blue role.... i doubt that they'd make the entire town all vigilantes in a newbie game lol
Why did you make a million complicated roles in a newbie game? Will we know WHICH of the roles are in play or could it be any number of any of those roles?
On September 01 2012 10:03 kushm4sta wrote: Why did you make a million complicated roles in a newbie game? Will we know WHICH of the roles are in play or could it be any number of any of those roles?
I didn't choose the roles, blame Kitaman for that =D Town aligned players will only know their own role. Mafia players will know the role of every other mafia member (due to their ability to communicate privately with each other), but will NOT know if there are any town power roles (Blue roles)
On September 01 2012 12:58 Blazinghand wrote: Roles look standard and simple to me
There are ELEVEN roles. IRL mafia games I played there are only 3 roles. Also 3 of the roles make cops totally unreliable... Cop is basically a useless role. For all the cop knows, all 3 mafias could be godfathers, and all the townies could be millers. He doesn't know what roles are in play or how many, therefore any information he gets is totally unreliable.
On September 01 2012 10:03 kushm4sta wrote: Why did you make a million complicated roles in a newbie game? Will we know WHICH of the roles are in play or could it be any number of any of those roles?
I have to agree. I'm not just a little concerned that, in particular, the Miller, Framer and Godfather roles will turn this into a crapshot. Newbie games tend to favor the scum because they're the ones benefiting from confusion. Those roles add even more confusion because they remove information. And of course not knowing the distribution of roles also removes information and creates confusion.
Anyway, that's just my 2c. I'm willing to give it a shot.
On September 01 2012 13:03 drazak wrote: That's what it looked like to me, never played with roleblocker or miller/godfather type stuff but seems simple as fuck to me.
Understanding the roles is obviously super simple, trying to processing the information in the game will be a complete mindfuck.
On September 01 2012 12:58 Blazinghand wrote: Roles look standard and simple to me
There are ELEVEN roles. IRL mafia games I played there are only 3 roles. Also 3 of the roles make cops totally unreliable... Cop is basically a useless role. For all the cop knows, all 3 mafias could be godfathers, and all the townies could be millers. He doesn't know what roles are in play or how many, therefore any information he gets is totally unreliable.
Yeah, if there's one of each of those roles in play, even if the police spots a mobster there's only a 50% chance he's actually a mobster. Of course that's an improvement from 25% at the start of the game but it makes the police worth a whole lot less.
er, as far as I know there can only be one each of each unique role, so only 2 possible wrong cop checks. In addition, likely the mods won't screw us too bad, and will probably have a decent amount of roles, not all 11.
On September 01 2012 16:59 drazak wrote: er, as far as I know there can only be one each of each unique role, so only 2 possible wrong cop checks. In addition, likely the mods won't screw us too bad, and will probably have a decent amount of roles, not all 11.
Sorry, I miscounted, no confusion, you're right, the cop has a 1/4 chance to get an incorrect read, this doesn't necessarily lead to scum win or LYLO or MYLO. In addition, anyone saying that mafia has a better chance to win in newbie mafias, go read the wikipedia article on mafia. Mafia statistically has a better chance of winning.
On September 01 2012 16:59 drazak wrote: er, as far as I know there can only be one each of each unique role, so only 2 possible wrong cop checks. In addition, likely the mods won't screw us too bad, and will probably have a decent amount of roles, not all 11.
Nope. There can be as many of each role as mods want. I mean I kind of see its purpose because it makes it harder to win with roles and forces the town to root out scum in the thread, like what thrawn said.
On September 01 2012 17:14 thrawn2112 wrote: well.... it's supposed to be really difficult.
and like I said, scumhunting in the thread is more useful than a single cop's night checks
I thought it was supposed to be 50/50 between town and maffia.
Single seers peeks have been invaluable in the games I've watched (not on TL). Of course scumhunting in the thread is completely necessary in any case.
I like the roles. To me they add depth to the game.
If there only was a cop and no miller/godfather, it just seems like he randomly could find a scum on the first or second night and that would give a huge advantage to the town. Later in the game he will undoubtedly have reads on 2-3 people and it seems extremely powerful. He might be able to finish the game by himself when theres 6-7 people left and maybe he has reads on 2-3 of them. At the right time, he roleclaim and reveals all his reads. He might even sacrifice himself to prove his reads are right and still win. To me that sounds rather boring. Winning as town should be done through successful day discussions, not through a cop randomly hitting perfect reads and then just finishing it by himself.
Same thing for example if no one dies at night. If theres only a medic role, he now has pretty huge information. Once again, that seems to give the town a pretty big advantage. However if theres unknown amount of medics, town blockers and mafia blockers, it becomes much more interesting to try and find out what actually happened that night.
On September 01 2012 18:31 Kreb wrote: I like the roles. To me they add depth to the game.
If there only was a cop and no miller/godfather, it just seems like he randomly could find a scum on the first or second night and that would give a huge advantage to the town. Later in the game he will undoubtedly have reads on 2-3 people and it seems extremely powerful. He might be able to finish the game by himself when theres 6-7 people left and maybe he has reads on 2-3 of them. At the right time, he roleclaim and reveals all his reads. He might even sacrifice himself to prove his reads are right and still win. To me that sounds rather boring. Winning as town should be done through successful day discussions, not through a cop randomly hitting perfect reads and then just finishing it by himself.
The cool thing about having a police with 100% accuracy is that it puts pressure on the maffia. While the town needs to figure out who's scum/townie, the mobsters need to figure out who's the police.
I don't think playing police is as easy as you make it out to be. The police can get night killed, which means he needs to leave hints. If they're too vague the town won't be able to spot them. Many maffia games have been lost because the police doesn't manage to get his peaks across. At the same time, if they're too obvious, the mobsters will be able to spot him and kill him off. The town needs to combat this with leaving fake hints as police cover, which in turn will provide info to the town if a fake police is getting lynched. With the current setup I doubt that police covering is a good strategy, at least it's way less important, which removes a cool part of the game.
The newbie town is at a disadvantage at the start of the game because the lack of experience will create confusion. The added complexity of the setup removes most reasonably easy ways to clear townies and spot mobsters, which puts them at an even greater disadvantage. If you look in the maffia game library, you can see that the results are 15-4.
Anyway, this is meant as feedback, not criticism. I'm obviously fine playing with this setup, that's what I signed up for. If a more experience player can comment on my thoughts I would appreciate it though. Perhaps this setup is awesome for reasons I haven't realized. My guess is that in a newbie game, the town is at least at a 75/25 disadvantage from the start.
Yeah, it'd be pretty stupid if the game was decided purely with blue actions. I think blues make the game more interesting, but they can't be too powerful. Otherwise it's just a game of speculation and boredom for vanilla townies.
Not exactly a host / co-host but Kita said he's fine with me coaching so just to stick out a little:
sup dudes. PM me with anything you want. So far there's no plan in wether I coach town, mafia or both at the same time but I'd assume I'm coaching both right now and yeah don't worry, can deal with that. So if you've got a question just shoot me a pm.
I'm obviously not going to answer questions like "who do you think is mafia?" but anything else is fine I guess.
On September 01 2012 20:12 Toadesstern wrote: Not exactly a host / co-host but Kita said he's fine with me coaching so just to stick out a little:
sup dudes. PM me with anything you want. So far there's no plan in wether I coach town, mafia or both at the same time but I'd assume I'm coaching both right now and yeah don't worry, can deal with that. So if you've got a question just shoot me a pm.
I'm obviously not going to answer questions like "who do you think is mafia?" but anything else is fine I guess.
Can we start asking question before the game starts?
On September 01 2012 20:12 Toadesstern wrote: Not exactly a host / co-host but Kita said he's fine with me coaching so just to stick out a little:
sup dudes. PM me with anything you want. So far there's no plan in wether I coach town, mafia or both at the same time but I'd assume I'm coaching both right now and yeah don't worry, can deal with that. So if you've got a question just shoot me a pm.
I'm obviously not going to answer questions like "who do you think is mafia?" but anything else is fine I guess.
Can we start asking question before the game starts?
no idea :p I'm sticking with answering no questions in the thread pre-game unless one of the hosts gets in here telling me/us otherwise to be on the safe side :p
yeah anything like that, irc, skype conversations or TL-pms are 24/7 allowed for mafia.
People get notified when roleblocked no matter wether or not they got a role or not in 99% of the games. I'm saying 99% because Kita's the host and he could change it for some weird reasons but in general if a RB roleblocks someone that guy is going to get a pm along the lines of "dude you totally got roleblocked tonight!" no matter of alignment, no matter of role.
People being rolecopped or being targeted by information roles in general don't get a notification in 99% of the cases. Same reasoning for saying 99% like the last time.
On September 01 2012 18:31 Kreb wrote: I like the roles. To me they add depth to the game.
If there only was a cop and no miller/godfather, it just seems like he randomly could find a scum on the first or second night and that would give a huge advantage to the town. Later in the game he will undoubtedly have reads on 2-3 people and it seems extremely powerful. He might be able to finish the game by himself when theres 6-7 people left and maybe he has reads on 2-3 of them. At the right time, he roleclaim and reveals all his reads. He might even sacrifice himself to prove his reads are right and still win. To me that sounds rather boring. Winning as town should be done through successful day discussions, not through a cop randomly hitting perfect reads and then just finishing it by himself.
The cool thing about having a police with 100% accuracy is that it puts pressure on the maffia. While the town needs to figure out who's scum/townie, the mobsters need to figure out who's the police.
I don't think playing police is as easy as you make it out to be. The police can get night killed, which means he needs to leave hints. If they're too vague the town won't be able to spot them. Many maffia games have been lost because the police doesn't manage to get his peaks across. At the same time, if they're too obvious, the mobsters will be able to spot him and kill him off. The town needs to combat this with leaving fake hints as police cover, which in turn will provide info to the town if a fake police is getting lynched. With the current setup I doubt that police covering is a good strategy, at least it's way less important, which removes a cool part of the game.
The newbie town is at a disadvantage at the start of the game because the lack of experience will create confusion. The added complexity of the setup removes most reasonably easy ways to clear townies and spot mobsters, which puts them at an even greater disadvantage. If you look in the maffia game library, you can see that the results are 15-4.
Anyway, this is meant as feedback, not criticism. I'm obviously fine playing with this setup, that's what I signed up for. If a more experience player can comment on my thoughts I would appreciate it though. Perhaps this setup is awesome for reasons I haven't realized. My guess is that in a newbie game, the town is at least at a 75/25 disadvantage from the start.
Link to the mafia game library?
Personally I looked at the ongoing mafia games thread and looked at ending posts. XX - Town win XXI - Mafia win XXII - Town win XXIII - Town win XXIV - Didnt find XXV - Town win 15-4 for mafia....?
Edit (yes I know I cant do it when game starts =) ): Found XXIV thread. Town win. So we have 5-1 to town last 6 newbie mafias. I'd definitely not want a 100% cop then...
Will there be messages distinguishing betweem different types of Blocking? Example: A is twonie and B is mafia. B tries to kill A during the nightr but it doesnt succeed. The following things might have happened: - Medic saved A - Jailer saved A - Jailer blocked B - A is a Veteran and survived What message will B get at dawn? Will it simply say "Your kill was unsuccessful" and as such leave all options open? Or will it say, "target was saved/target was not there/you were blocket/attack was successful but target survived" to distinguish between the four options?
On September 01 2012 19:42 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 01 2012 18:31 Kreb wrote: I like the roles. To me they add depth to the game.
If there only was a cop and no miller/godfather, it just seems like he randomly could find a scum on the first or second night and that would give a huge advantage to the town. Later in the game he will undoubtedly have reads on 2-3 people and it seems extremely powerful. He might be able to finish the game by himself when theres 6-7 people left and maybe he has reads on 2-3 of them. At the right time, he roleclaim and reveals all his reads. He might even sacrifice himself to prove his reads are right and still win. To me that sounds rather boring. Winning as town should be done through successful day discussions, not through a cop randomly hitting perfect reads and then just finishing it by himself.
The cool thing about having a police with 100% accuracy is that it puts pressure on the maffia. While the town needs to figure out who's scum/townie, the mobsters need to figure out who's the police.
I don't think playing police is as easy as you make it out to be. The police can get night killed, which means he needs to leave hints. If they're too vague the town won't be able to spot them. Many maffia games have been lost because the police doesn't manage to get his peaks across. At the same time, if they're too obvious, the mobsters will be able to spot him and kill him off. The town needs to combat this with leaving fake hints as police cover, which in turn will provide info to the town if a fake police is getting lynched. With the current setup I doubt that police covering is a good strategy, at least it's way less important, which removes a cool part of the game.
The newbie town is at a disadvantage at the start of the game because the lack of experience will create confusion. The added complexity of the setup removes most reasonably easy ways to clear townies and spot mobsters, which puts them at an even greater disadvantage. If you look in the maffia game library, you can see that the results are 15-4.
Anyway, this is meant as feedback, not criticism. I'm obviously fine playing with this setup, that's what I signed up for. If a more experience player can comment on my thoughts I would appreciate it though. Perhaps this setup is awesome for reasons I haven't realized. My guess is that in a newbie game, the town is at least at a 75/25 disadvantage from the start.
Link to the mafia game library?
Personally I looked at the ongoing mafia games thread and looked at ending posts. XX - Town win XXI - Mafia win XXII - Town win XXIII - Town win XXIV - Didnt find XXV - Town win 15-4 for mafia....?
Edit (yes I know I cant do it when game starts =) ): Found XXIV thread. Town win. So we have 5-1 to town last 6 newbie mafias. I'd definitely not want a 100% cop then...
On September 01 2012 21:51 Kreb wrote: Will there be messages distinguishing betweem different types of Blocking? Example: A is twonie and B is mafia. B tries to kill A during the nightr but it doesnt succeed. The following things might have happened: - Medic saved A - Jailer saved A - Jailer blocked B - A is a Veteran and survived What message will B get at dawn? Will it simply say "Your kill was unsuccessful" and as such leave all options open? Or will it say, "target was saved/target was not there/you were blocket/attack was successful but target survived" to distinguish between the four options?
Roleblocks are dealt with prior to night actions. Kind of like a 2 stage process.
Firstly all roleblock actions are dealt with. Next thing is everything else. So if you roleblock someone who was about to shoot you that shot won't happen to begin with, so obviously the guy who would have been shot, if not for the RB, won't end up getting a notification because nothing happened to him to begin with. + Show Spoiler [confusion!] +
A Jailer is not allowed to target himself but even if he was it wouldn't work because he'd target himself, which would end up roleblocking himself and prevent him from jailing himself in stage-1 of the night I guess?
B doesn't get a message at all unless he was roleblocked. So if he get's a roleblock message and his target is still alive it's fairly self-explanatory that his shot wasn't triggered because of the roleblock. If he ended up shooting someone but the target survived (without being roleblocked himself) he won't get a notification either because the shot was successful. It's just that it took away the protection and not the life of his target. So at that point B has no clue wether he shot a vet or someone being protected.
On September 01 2012 21:51 Kreb wrote: Will there be messages distinguishing betweem different types of Blocking? Example: A is twonie and B is mafia. B tries to kill A during the nightr but it doesnt succeed. The following things might have happened: - Medic saved A - Jailer saved A - Jailer blocked B - A is a Veteran and survived What message will B get at dawn? Will it simply say "Your kill was unsuccessful" and as such leave all options open? Or will it say, "target was saved/target was not there/you were blocket/attack was successful but target survived" to distinguish between the four options?
Roleblocks are dealt with prior to night actions. Kind of like a 2 stage process.
Firstly all roleblock actions are dealt with. Next thing is everything else. So if you roleblock someone who was about to shoot you that shot won't happen to begin with, so obviously the guy who would have been shot, if not for the RB, won't end up getting a notification because nothing happened to him to begin with. + Show Spoiler [confusion!] +
A Jailer is not allowed to target himself but even if he was it wouldn't work because he'd target himself, which would end up roleblocking himself and prevent him from jailing himself in stage-1 of the night I guess?
B doesn't get a message at all unless he was roleblocked. So if he get's a roleblock message and his target is still alive it's fairly self-explanatory that his shot wasn't triggered because of the roleblock. If he ended up shooting someone but the target survived (without being roleblocked himself) he won't get a notification either because the shot was successful. It's just that it took away the protection and not the life of his target. So at that point B has no clue wether he shot a vet or someone being protected.
So 1, 2, 4 are undistinguable (is that a word? ) while 3 recieves a "blocked" message! Thanks!
On September 01 2012 12:58 Blazinghand wrote: Roles look standard and simple to me
There are ELEVEN roles. IRL mafia games I played there are only 3 roles. Also 3 of the roles make cops totally unreliable... Cop is basically a useless role. For all the cop knows, all 3 mafias could be godfathers, and all the townies could be millers. He doesn't know what roles are in play or how many, therefore any information he gets is totally unreliable.
Taking a look at the types of setups used in past newbie games might help address your concerns.
On September 01 2012 18:31 Kreb wrote: The newbie town is at a disadvantage at the start of the game because the lack of experience will create confusion. The added complexity of the setup removes most reasonably easy ways to clear townies and spot mobsters, which puts them at an even greater disadvantage. If you look in the maffia game library, you can see that the results are 15-4.
Anyway, this is meant as feedback, not criticism. I'm obviously fine playing with this setup, that's what I signed up for. If a more experience player can comment on my thoughts I would appreciate it though. Perhaps this setup is awesome for reasons I haven't realized. My guess is that in a newbie game, the town is at least at a 75/25 disadvantage from the start.
Generally we select setups that are balanced as a normal game, without taking into account that newer players are playing. As this is generally a learning experience, I think a skewed setup would cause people to make incorrect assumptions once they move on to the non-newbie games. The results may have started 15-4, but town has won the majority of the recent games, so I'm not sure the sample size is large enough to call it a 75/25 disadvantage.
Adding more than 2-3 roles may add complexity to the setup, but I don't think it impacts balance as much. Compared to a cop only setup, the possibility of medic role forces the mafia to decide between hitting the strongest player in the thread or hitting a player that is less likely to be saved. Framers and millers are present in the role list because we never want a sitatuion where a town can win simply by following the blue's night actions.
On September 01 2012 21:51 Kreb wrote: Will there be messages distinguishing betweem different types of Blocking? Example: A is twonie and B is mafia. B tries to kill A during the nightr but it doesnt succeed. The following things might have happened: - Medic saved A - Jailer saved A - Jailer blocked B - A is a Veteran and survived What message will B get at dawn? Will it simply say "Your kill was unsuccessful" and as such leave all options open? Or will it say, "target was saved/target was not there/you were blocket/attack was successful but target survived" to distinguish between the four options?
Roleblocks are dealt with prior to night actions. Kind of like a 2 stage process.
Firstly all roleblock actions are dealt with. Next thing is everything else. So if you roleblock someone who was about to shoot you that shot won't happen to begin with, so obviously the guy who would have been shot, if not for the RB, won't end up getting a notification because nothing happened to him to begin with. + Show Spoiler [confusion!] +
A Jailer is not allowed to target himself but even if he was it wouldn't work because he'd target himself, which would end up roleblocking himself and prevent him from jailing himself in stage-1 of the night I guess?
B doesn't get a message at all unless he was roleblocked. So if he get's a roleblock message and his target is still alive it's fairly self-explanatory that his shot wasn't triggered because of the roleblock. If he ended up shooting someone but the target survived (without being roleblocked himself) he won't get a notification either because the shot was successful. It's just that it took away the protection and not the life of his target. So at that point B has no clue wether he shot a vet or someone being protected.
So 1, 2, 4 are undistinguable (is that a word? ) while 3 recieves a "blocked" message! Thanks!
not sure about the jailer to be honest but I'd say so in this set-up considering the description of the role.
There's different definitions of "jailers" that are being used all the time. In this set-up he apparently is a combination of a medic and a RB which probably means that he's delt with like a medic when it comes down to safes, which would imply that the jailer get's a notification if he successfully safes someone as well, which I'm not to sure about. Sometimes (actually most times considering the games I played) the jailer is something that makes his target completly untargetable by everything. Because he locks his target up nothing will hit him, no matter if he's targeted by 1KP, by 2 KP, by 18517158KP, by information roles (like a DT) or by whatever else you've got in stock + Show Spoiler [unnecessary information] +
unless he gets targeted by a 2nd guy who wants to roleblock him, because roleblock and jailer both happen at the same time before everything else. That means that the guy gets roleblocked twice instead of just getting roleblocked by the jailer :p
. In that scenario a vig or a mafia targeting him would maybe end up getting a PM along the lines of "you missed your target" but could as well just be no notification to not give any hints.
Though the "protection" in the description of the jailer role heavily implies that he's just a combination of a RB and a medic like I mentioned and therefore can only protect from 1KP per night and won't make his target untargetable.
On September 01 2012 12:58 Blazinghand wrote: Roles look standard and simple to me
There are ELEVEN roles. IRL mafia games I played there are only 3 roles. Also 3 of the roles make cops totally unreliable... Cop is basically a useless role. For all the cop knows, all 3 mafias could be godfathers, and all the townies could be millers. He doesn't know what roles are in play or how many, therefore any information he gets is totally unreliable.
Taking a look at the types of setups used in past newbie games might help address your concerns.
Quick. Ask Igrok for his pw and host with his account including setups like "everyone is a jester" or "every townie is a townie-GF. Every mafia is a mafia-medic" :p
In the past, newbie games were typically won by scum. However, in the past 4-5 months or so, newbie games are typically won by town. The chief factor in deciding who wins a newbie game is which side has the better players. Who plays better wins, regardless of complexity.
Don't even worry about the setup. In all likelihood in a game of this size you'll have like 2-3 blue roles (probably one roleblocking/protecting role, one shooting/information role, and a third role that could be either), and mafia will have 1-2 PRs, including a roleblocker or framer, or maybe a roleblocker and a GF.
In fact, the biggest downfall of newbie towns is spending time speculating on the setup rather than scumhunting. Speculating on the setup in normal, non-themed games is like universally a hugeeeee waste of time.
Don't merge steps 1-3; find one at a time, and don't try to make wild connection theories based on a multi-person scumteam when you don't have allignment information. That also tends to be the downfall of town in newbie games.
Just roll /rnd-12 d1 and lynch/shoot that guy. You're sure to kill the GF that way. That's the best method to play mafia and it's empirically proven to be flaweless.
Hai folks, reporting in as town coach for this fine game! Townies and blue roles, feel free to PM me for coaching and advice (Mafia can also PM me for advice as well, but you'll also have a separate mafia-coach in your QuickTopic thread).
We'll set up a private QuickTopic thread where we'll converse (I will not release the QT without your consent).
This is an optional service - I will only provide help if you contact me!
Things I will help you with unconditionally:
"I'm lost! What do I doooooo?!?!?"
How to establish yourself as town
How to defend yourself from attacks
Persuasive writing and proofreading posts
How to pressure a player
"What questions should I be asking?"
...and more... just ask!
Things I will help you with moderately:
"How do I/you scumhunt?"
"Am I justified in suspecting this player?"
"Did I write a good case against this player? Why?"
"Who should I use my Cop/Medic/Roleblocker night-action on?"
Things I will not help with:
Allignments of specific players.
My reads on specific players.
Antagonizing other players.
"How do I make my e-penis larger?"
"What race should I play in Starcraft 2?"
When in doubt, just ask. There's very little that I won't help with to some extent, and the worst I can say is "no comment" =)
On September 02 2012 02:52 Blazinghand wrote: In the past, newbie games were typically won by scum. However, in the past 4-5 months or so, newbie games are typically won by town. The chief factor in deciding who wins a newbie game is which side has the better players. Who plays better wins, regardless of complexity.
Don't even worry about the setup. In all likelihood in a game of this size you'll have like 2-3 blue roles (probably one roleblocking/protecting role, one shooting/information role, and a third role that could be either), and mafia will have 1-2 PRs, including a roleblocker or framer, or maybe a roleblocker and a GF.
In fact, the biggest downfall of newbie towns is spending time speculating on the setup rather than scumhunting. Speculating on the setup in normal, non-themed games is like universally a hugeeeee waste of time.
Summary:
step 1) scum hunt step 2) win
step not a step) speculate endlessly on setup
When you say "spending time speculating about the setup", do you mean speculating about which roles are actually in play?
On September 01 2012 12:58 Blazinghand wrote: Roles look standard and simple to me
There are ELEVEN roles. IRL mafia games I played there are only 3 roles. Also 3 of the roles make cops totally unreliable... Cop is basically a useless role. For all the cop knows, all 3 mafias could be godfathers, and all the townies could be millers. He doesn't know what roles are in play or how many, therefore any information he gets is totally unreliable.
Taking a look at the types of setups used in past newbie games might help address your concerns.
On September 01 2012 18:31 Kreb wrote: The newbie town is at a disadvantage at the start of the game because the lack of experience will create confusion. The added complexity of the setup removes most reasonably easy ways to clear townies and spot mobsters, which puts them at an even greater disadvantage. If you look in the maffia game library, you can see that the results are 15-4.
Anyway, this is meant as feedback, not criticism. I'm obviously fine playing with this setup, that's what I signed up for. If a more experience player can comment on my thoughts I would appreciate it though. Perhaps this setup is awesome for reasons I haven't realized. My guess is that in a newbie game, the town is at least at a 75/25 disadvantage from the start.
Generally we select setups that are balanced as a normal game, without taking into account that newer players are playing. As this is generally a learning experience, I think a skewed setup would cause people to make incorrect assumptions once they move on to the non-newbie games. The results may have started 15-4, but town has won the majority of the recent games, so I'm not sure the sample size is large enough to call it a 75/25 disadvantage.
Adding more than 2-3 roles may add complexity to the setup, but I don't think it impacts balance as much. Compared to a cop only setup, the possibility of medic role forces the mafia to decide between hitting the strongest player in the thread or hitting a player that is less likely to be saved. Framers and millers are present in the role list because we never want a sitatuion where a town can win simply by following the blue's night actions.
Alright, makes sense. Thinking a little bit about this setup I think it has the potential of being a great game. Let's get this rolling!
On September 02 2012 02:52 Blazinghand wrote: In the past, newbie games were typically won by scum. However, in the past 4-5 months or so, newbie games are typically won by town. The chief factor in deciding who wins a newbie game is which side has the better players. Who plays better wins, regardless of complexity.
Don't even worry about the setup. In all likelihood in a game of this size you'll have like 2-3 blue roles (probably one roleblocking/protecting role, one shooting/information role, and a third role that could be either), and mafia will have 1-2 PRs, including a roleblocker or framer, or maybe a roleblocker and a GF.
In fact, the biggest downfall of newbie towns is spending time speculating on the setup rather than scumhunting. Speculating on the setup in normal, non-themed games is like universally a hugeeeee waste of time.
Summary:
step 1) scum hunt step 2) win
step not a step) speculate endlessly on setup
When you say "spending time speculating about the setup", do you mean speculating about which roles are actually in play?
So the setup is what we call "semi-open" - the town knows what roles could exist, but not necessary what roles exist/how many (generally in a game of this size, there are 2-3 blue roles among the 9 total town-alligned players).
There's no way to know what roles exist, and as such, there's really no point in talking about them. Remember, town can win without power roles through analyzing posts and intent of other players. Town's primary objective is to analyze posts and find and lynch mafia members - talking about blue roles generally wastes time when you could be hunting for mafia.
I have actually never seen a newbie 12 player set-up with 3 blue roles. Actually the F11 for 12 players makes it possible that there's either: 0, 1 or 2 blue roles for town so I wouldn't exactly say there's going to be 2-3 PRs :p
On September 02 2012 08:31 Toadesstern wrote: I have actually never seen a newbie 12 player set-up with 3 blue roles. Actually the F11 for 12 players makes it possible that there's either: 0, 1 or 2 blue roles for town so I wouldn't exactly say there's going to be 2-3 PRs :p
I think it depends on the algorithm the host uses, and depends on the relative power/balance of the roles:
XX had a Tracker, Doctor, and Detective XXI had 2 Veterans and a JailKeep XXIV had a Jailkeeper, Doctor, and Vigilante
As far as I'm aware, the game WILL be starting at 9PM EDT (roughly 1.5 hours) I will be sending out role PMs about 30 mins prior to the start of the game, then posting the 1st day post at 9. I would ask that players don't post between sending role PM's and the start of the game, I will remind you all of course. Good luck, have fun!
On September 02 2012 08:31 Toadesstern wrote: I have actually never seen a newbie 12 player set-up with 3 blue roles. Actually the F11 for 12 players makes it possible that there's either: 0, 1 or 2 blue roles for town so I wouldn't exactly say there's going to be 2-3 PRs :p
I think it depends on the algorithm the host uses, and depends on the relative power/balance of the roles:
XX had a Tracker, Doctor, and Detective XXI had 2 Veterans and a JailKeep XXIV had a Jailkeeper, Doctor, and Vigilante
yes of course it depends on the mafia PRs but in the orignial 12-man F11 a 3-blue case was not implemented. That's why I'm kinda shocked that you and apparently BH as well consider it more likely to be a 3-blue game and don't even include something like a 0 blues or 1 blue games in your thoughts, which has happened a lot as well :p Anyways we probably shouldn't talk about this or kita kicks us out of his game
On September 02 2012 08:31 Toadesstern wrote: I have actually never seen a newbie 12 player set-up with 3 blue roles. Actually the F11 for 12 players makes it possible that there's either: 0, 1 or 2 blue roles for town so I wouldn't exactly say there's going to be 2-3 PRs :p
I think it depends on the algorithm the host uses, and depends on the relative power/balance of the roles:
XX had a Tracker, Doctor, and Detective XXI had 2 Veterans and a JailKeep XXIV had a Jailkeeper, Doctor, and Vigilante
yes of course it depends on the mafia PRs but in the orignial 12-man F11 a 3-blue case was not implemented. That's why I'm kinda shocked that you and apparently BH as well consider it more likely to be a 3-blue game and don't even include something like a 0 blues or 1 blue games in your thoughts, which has happened a lot as well :p ...
Yeah for some reason, most of my newbie games have been with 3 blue roles. 2 in the event of something really powerful (i.e Medic/Detective). Really haven't seen a setup with 1 blue in any recent newbie games, though I wish a host would mess around with a 0 blue setup with more townies or something to balance things out.
Anyways we probably shouldn't talk about this or kita kicks us out of his game
On September 02 2012 08:31 Toadesstern wrote: I have actually never seen a newbie 12 player set-up with 3 blue roles. Actually the F11 for 12 players makes it possible that there's either: 0, 1 or 2 blue roles for town so I wouldn't exactly say there's going to be 2-3 PRs :p
I think it depends on the algorithm the host uses, and depends on the relative power/balance of the roles:
XX had a Tracker, Doctor, and Detective XXI had 2 Veterans and a JailKeep XXIV had a Jailkeeper, Doctor, and Vigilante
yes of course it depends on the mafia PRs but in the orignial 12-man F11 a 3-blue case was not implemented. That's why I'm kinda shocked that you and apparently BH as well consider it more likely to be a 3-blue game and don't even include something like a 0 blues or 1 blue games in your thoughts, which has happened a lot as well :p ...
Yeah for some reason, most of my newbie games have been with 3 blue roles. 2 in the event of something really powerful (i.e Medic/Detective). Really haven't seen a setup with 1 blue in any recent newbie games, though I wish a host would mess around with a 0 blue setup with more townies or something to balance things out.
Anyways we probably shouldn't talk about this or kita kicks us out of his game
I DO WAT I WANT! WHATEVA WHATEVA!
Just do the Toad from WoF to balance things out. "Hey wbg, let's give mafia a framer for the lulz to freak them out" "lol, best idea ever" ended up making them pretty paranoid and probably hurt them because of the assumptions they had.
So 9VT vs 2goon+1framer is probably balanced, whereas 9VT vs 3goon is not :p as weird as that may sound.
On September 02 2012 08:31 Toadesstern wrote: I have actually never seen a newbie 12 player set-up with 3 blue roles. Actually the F11 for 12 players makes it possible that there's either: 0, 1 or 2 blue roles for town so I wouldn't exactly say there's going to be 2-3 PRs :p
I think it depends on the algorithm the host uses, and depends on the relative power/balance of the roles:
XX had a Tracker, Doctor, and Detective XXI had 2 Veterans and a JailKeep XXIV had a Jailkeeper, Doctor, and Vigilante
yes of course it depends on the mafia PRs but in the orignial 12-man F11 a 3-blue case was not implemented. That's why I'm kinda shocked that you and apparently BH as well consider it more likely to be a 3-blue game and don't even include something like a 0 blues or 1 blue games in your thoughts, which has happened a lot as well :p ...
Yeah for some reason, most of my newbie games have been with 3 blue roles. 2 in the event of something really powerful (i.e Medic/Detective). Really haven't seen a setup with 1 blue in any recent newbie games, though I wish a host would mess around with a 0 blue setup with more townies or something to balance things out.
Anyways we probably shouldn't talk about this or kita kicks us out of his game
I DO WAT I WANT! WHATEVA WHATEVA!
Just do the Toad from WoF to balance things out. "Hey wbg, let's give mafia a framer for the lulz to freak them out" "lol, best idea ever" ended up making them pretty paranoid and probably hurt them because of the assumptions they had.
So 9VT vs 2goon+1framer is probably balanced, whereas 9VT vs 3goon is not :p as weird as that may sound.
Oh man! When I played Mafia in XXI, we had a framer, thought there was a DT, and made like 2 awful attempts at detective snipes when the blue roles were 2 Vets + Jailkeep T_T
Alrighty kiddos, Role PM's are being sent out now.
A few reminders: 1) Please don't post here until the daypost is... posted. 2) No referencing the names of any coaches you may have. (BUT DO USE THEM, THEY ARE REALLY GOOD) 3) Have fun, hunt scum. (Unless you are scum, then hunt townies.)
OKAY. All roles should have been sent out. If you are /in the game and haven't recieved a Role, PM me and I'll resend it. Day post coming in about 20 mins.
The Propaniacs, Propaniacs on the floor! And we'll make you laugh and make you laugh some more! We're the Propaniacs -- ...aniacs... For sure! If you're sad, we've got the gas that is the cure!
It was a hot, summer day in Arlen, Texas. As Hank Hill was driving into work, he had an uneasy feeling, sensing something was not right. There was a putrid stench in the air that he couldn't quite place.
As he approached Strickland Propane, he could see smoke rising in the air. Gasping in horror, he rushed into the building, only to be kocked off his feet by an explosion. Surely noone had survived the blast.
Immediately Hank realized who had been behind the attack. It was charcoal.
BioSC as Buck Strickland has perished! Hapahauli as Joe Jack has sung his last song! Toadesstern as Enrique está muerto!
You have 48 hours to determine the next lynch. The current deadline is 02:00 GMT (+00:00). Good luck!
Alright fellow townies, one post before I go to bed, it's 3am over here.
Make sure to read the maffia guide thread if you haven't, it's really good. Try to make concise posts and think 'em through before posting, the last thing we need is added confusion.
We also need transparency, so try to contribute with at least one post per game day where you clearly explain your reasoning behind your most solid reads. If everyone does this, the mobsters will have to too.
And blue roles, with great power comes great responsibility, so please don't do stupid shit just because you can :p
Finally, keep in mind: if you're a vanilla townie, death by NK is a great honor and the best possible outcome for the group as a whole.
tldr: Lynching lurkers D1 has recently shown merit in newbie games. To quote lvdr from XXV:
On August 26 2012 02:42 Lvdr wrote: "lynching active but contriversial players D1 typically leads to mislynches"
My plan for D1 is to proceed as normal, but in the back of my mind I'll be thinking about a good lurker vote candidate. Good =/= lowest post count, it means picking a lurker who doesn't take a side in controversial issues. Near the end of D1, I will be most suspicious of people that have avoided attention and don't seem to care about scumhunting or offering original contributions.
This message brought to you by the The Arlen Beauty Academy.
I'm all for lynching lurkers. A lurker is either being quiet to hide what they are, or not helping, either way they're not any use to anyone. so far people not lurking are SDM and Thrawn... we'll see how many more of you come out of the woodwork.
If they're going to be busy/afk all game, they really aren't being any help, they aren't reading all the posts and giving us their reads, just taking up space. This hurts us almost as much as a mafia as the mafia can leave them alive, knowing they aren't making good reads/paying attention.
On September 02 2012 11:04 Cubu wrote: And it might be that they are busy doing something offline (school, work etc) so it's hard to judge whether they are lurking or just afk.
Well there is no effective or distinguishable difference between true lurking and being afk so I'm going to think of them as the same thing. And note that lurker policy isn't based on lynching the person with lowest vote count, it has a lot to do with the content of their posts.
On September 02 2012 10:41 thrawn2112 wrote:Good =/= lowest post count, it means picking a lurker who doesn't take a side in controversial issues. Near the end of D1, I will be most suspicious of people that have avoided attention and don't seem to care about scumhunting or offering original contributions.
Hey! I have noticed in past games day one active players lynching often goes bad. Unless there is a clear and obvious read that is. That said most scum would be active first day anyway (I imagine) just to avoid this. I have noticed however that many lurkers turn out to be bored town though so... The problem is if they are bored the content of their posts will suck as well. (Over thinking mode activated) I guess part of it comes down to instinct and analysing what you can such as who defends them and why.
Also I agree with low post count doesn’t mean bad content.
Are people ok with NOT lynching anyone first night or is this generally thought of as bad play? Because honestly it seems impossible to have a good idea of who is mafia by then. Last game everyone was like we NEED to lynch someone, and we ended up lynching WeeTee, an innocent! I love all my townies and I don't want to kill any.
Also guys remember school starts soon if it hasn't already started. Sept 4th for me. This is going to make it kind of hard to distinguish malicious lurkers because people will have a good excuse.
On September 02 2012 12:24 kushm4sta wrote: Are people ok with NOT lynching anyone first night or is this generally thought of as bad play? Because honestly it seems impossible to have a good idea of who is mafia by then. Last game everyone was like we NEED to lynch someone, and we ended up lynching WeeTee, an innocent! I love all my townies and I don't want to kill any.
I don't want a no-lynch. Even if a townie gets lynched we still gain information from their flip. If a player flips green then the next step is to look at who all played parts in getting them lynched. And besides that if we don't have a lynch goal for D1 I think there will be a lot less conversation than normal. As far as it being impossible to have a good lynch candidate, that's where lurker policy comes in.
On September 02 2012 12:24 kushm4sta wrote: Are people ok with NOT lynching anyone first night or is this generally thought of as bad play? Because honestly it seems impossible to have a good idea of who is mafia by then. Last game everyone was like we NEED to lynch someone, and we ended up lynching WeeTee, an innocent! I love all my townies and I don't want to kill any.
To lynch or not to lynch that is the question! But lynching does give information which is something that is normally lacking in the first day. If we didn't lynch then the second day would be much like the first (confusion etc..) But I was watching last game so I know what you mean. Besides the town with bad arguments or the ones that don't post normally get lynched first (or the ones that panic which is understandable) so it's not like we lose a really valuable analyst if we lynch first day.
Good Morning All, (and Glhf). It has been a bit of a wait but it's nice to be getting started. I don't think no-lynch is a good idea - at the very least a lynch discussion generates some substantive posts that can be analysed later. Without a lynch discussion we will have a tougher time D2, because policy/activity/setup chatter is pretty much a Null read.And ofc, we are aiming to hit scum...
On September 02 2012 15:19 KillingTime wrote: Good Morning All, (and Glhf). It has been a bit of a wait but it's nice to be getting started. I don't think no-lynch is a good idea - at the very least a lynch discussion generates some substantive posts that can be analysed later. Without a lynch discussion we will have a tougher time D2, because policy/activity/setup chatter is pretty much a Null read.And ofc, we are aiming to hit scum...
okok I get it... about a thousand people explain to me why my idea is bad. Mafia thinks to themselves, "hmm here is something obvious I can post about that wont make me look suspicious."
okok I get it... about a thousand people explain to me why my idea is bad. Mafia thinks to themselves, "hmm here is something obvious I can post about that wont make me look suspicious."
Haha like you can talk. You did just triple post before But maybe Killings responce was pointless considering it was already answered. But on the flip side it does concrete that that is a bad idea and it's his first post of the thread.
Erm one thing I will ask though is how do you quote and keep the name of the person you are quoting? Such as "On September 02 2012 15:19 KillingTime wrote:"
On September 02 2012 15:39 JacobStrangelove wrote: Erm one thing I will ask though is how do you quote and keep the name of the person you are quoting? Such as "On September 02 2012 15:19 KillingTime wrote:"
Didn't you already do it here?
On September 02 2012 12:48 JacobStrangelove wrote:
On September 02 2012 12:24 kushm4sta wrote: Are people ok with NOT lynching anyone first night or is this generally thought of as bad play? Because honestly it seems impossible to have a good idea of who is mafia by then. Last game everyone was like we NEED to lynch someone, and we ended up lynching WeeTee, an innocent! I love all my townies and I don't want to kill any.
To lynch or not to lynch that is the question! But lynching does give information which is something that is normally lacking in the first day. If we didn't lynch then the second day would be much like the first (confusion etc..) But I was watching last game so I know what you mean. Besides the town with bad arguments or the ones that don't post normally get lynched first (or the ones that panic which is understandable) so it's not like we lose a really valuable analyst if we lynch first day.
Yeah that is a complete quote not a section of a quote. OH I see now I was removing the JacobStrangelove wrote: part at the start. I'll see if this works.
On September 02 2012 15:19 KillingTime wrote: Good Morning All, (and Glhf). It has been a bit of a wait but it's nice to be getting started. I don't think no-lynch is a good idea - at the very least a lynch discussion generates some substantive posts that can be analysed later. Without a lynch discussion we will have a tougher time D2, because policy/activity/setup chatter is pretty much a Null read.And ofc, we are aiming to hit scum...
okok I get it... about a thousand people explain to me why my idea is bad. Mafia thinks to themselves, "hmm here is something obvious I can post about that wont make me look suspicious."
Your point? Are you saying that you are suspicious of KillingTime's post? 3 =/= 1,000,000 and how can you not expect at least that many people to respond to your no-lynch idea especially considering there's nothing else to talk about except lurker policy? I'd hoped that you'd taken a lesson from XXV and eased off from making inflammatory and impulsive posts.
Not only is a no-lynch bad, it's impossible. Read the rules.
Also, yeah, lynching active d1 posters is usually bad, especially in newbie games. Townies are usually a lot more comfortable with their role. Ime this leads the townies to post more and also say more stupid stuff. The town latches on to someone who said something stupid and we have a mislynch.
On the other hand mobsters are more careful with what they say because they don't want to slip up and get noticed. I'm mostly suspicious of semi-active posters who post nothing but fluff.
On September 02 2012 15:19 KillingTime wrote: Good Morning All, (and Glhf). It has been a bit of a wait but it's nice to be getting started. I don't think no-lynch is a good idea - at the very least a lynch discussion generates some substantive posts that can be analysed later. Without a lynch discussion we will have a tougher time D2, because policy/activity/setup chatter is pretty much a Null read.And ofc, we are aiming to hit scum...
okok I get it... about a thousand people explain to me why my idea is bad. Mafia thinks to themselves, "hmm here is something obvious I can post about that wont make me look suspicious."
Your point? Are you saying that you are suspicious of KillingTime's post? 3 =/= 1,000,000 and how can you not expect at least that many people to respond to your no-lynch idea especially considering there's nothing else to talk about except lurker policy? I'd hoped that you'd taken a lesson from XXV and eased off from making inflammatory and impulsive posts.
There is a big difference between lurker policy and my question. My question had an obvious answer everyone agrees on (including me now). Lurker policy is actually something that is relevant because not everyone agrees on it.
Morning everyone, this thread got started nicely overnight it seems. About D1 lynching, from what I've guessed so far its indeed a good idea to lynch lurkers. Obviously the chance of getting a scum right on the first day is limited, but generally it keeps the discussion going. You're also not necessarily sacrificing someone important if you're lynching an inactive townie either. Overall it seems like the best of all the options.
Gonna have a look through some peoples posting histories later on when we get closer to the deadline and more people has posted to see if theres any chance to find hte slightest read on who could be a scum.
(Im gonna have to get used to not editing posts too :p Im way too used doing that!)
Oh and ##FOS Hank Hill. 3 people were already at Strickland Propane and Hank being late to work, or even being the 4th person to show up is not at all in line with Hank's moral character.
##vote kreb Post is really empty. If no one else comes along in 36ish hours I would be down with lynching him. Really premature vote, I know but I'm going to sleep for like 15 hours so it's going to be a while.
On September 02 2012 17:53 Kreb wrote: About D1 lynching, from what I've guessed so far its indeed a good idea to lynch lurkers.
Then he uses 3 sentences to explain why lurkers are bad even though they are not necessarily mafia, a completely obvious idea. So his whole lurker policy is "it's a good idea to lynch lurkers." I have news for you kreb, a total lurker will be modkilled since you have to post at least once a day. The most lurkerish person we have to deal with is 1 post a day. Speaking of 1 post a day,
Gonna have a look through some peoples posting histories later on when we get closer to the deadline and more people has posted to see if theres any chance to find hte slightest read on who could be a scum.
You do realize the deadline is very far? A day is 48 hours not 24. Damn guys town is fine. In 30 hours Kreb is going to check SOME filters for a CHANCE to find the SLIGHTEST read.
On September 02 2012 18:29 thrawn2112 wrote: Oh and ##FOS Hank Hill. 3 people were already at Strickland Propane and Hank being late to work, or even being the 4th person to show up is not at all in line with Hank's moral character.
Dude are you in love with King of the Hill or what? This is your 4th reference to it and second post with nothing more than a reference. Stop clogging your filter because I'm going to have to read it a lot since I already kind of suspect you.
Kush you're supposed to use the other thread for voting. And your case against kreb, well, I don't see how you justify voting for someone based off the only post they've made when like half the players haven't even posted yet.
There are a couple of posts that caught my attention.
On September 02 2012 10:18 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Alright fellow townies, one post before I go to bed, it's 3am over here.
Make sure to read the maffia guide thread if you haven't, it's really good. Try to make concise posts and think 'em through before posting, the last thing we need is added confusion.
We also need transparency, so try to contribute with at least one post per game day where you clearly explain your reasoning behind your most solid reads. If everyone does this, the mobsters will have to too.
And blue roles, with great power comes great responsibility, so please don't do stupid shit just because you can :p
Finally, keep in mind: if you're a vanilla townie, death by NK is a great honor and the best possible outcome for the group as a whole.
Goodnight and see ya tomorrow.
This post is extremely fluffy, even for the first post of the thread. Just look at the bolded part: there's nothing of value in all that. No opinions, no reasoning, no stances on anything... Nothing. Everything in this post screams classic Mafia pseudo-active "posting for the sake of posting". Then there's this:
On September 02 2012 16:58 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Not only is a no-lynch bad, it's impossible. Read the rules.
Also, yeah, lynching active d1 posters is usually bad, especially in newbie games. Townies are usually a lot more comfortable with their role. Ime this leads the townies to post more and also say more stupid stuff. The town latches on to someone who said something stupid and we have a mislynch.
On the other hand mobsters are more careful with what they say because they don't want to slip up and get noticed. I'm mostly suspicious of semi-active posters who post nothing but fluff.
The bolded part here is something I agree with, but on the other hand, it fits Sonic Death Monkey himself quite well... His filter seems like the most semi-active and fluffy at the moment. Sonic Death Monkey, do you see anyone more suspicious than yourself (by your own standards) right now? If so, who and why?
On September 02 2012 17:53 Kreb wrote: First: GLHF everyone!
Morning everyone, this thread got started nicely overnight it seems. About D1 lynching, from what I've guessed so far its indeed a good idea to lynch lurkers. Obviously the chance of getting a scum right on the first day is limited, but generally it keeps the discussion going. You're also not necessarily sacrificing someone important if you're lynching an inactive townie either. Overall it seems like the best of all the options.
Gonna have a look through some peoples posting histories later on when we get closer to the deadline and more people has posted to see if theres any chance to find hte slightest read on who could be a scum.
(Im gonna have to get used to not editing posts too :p Im way too used doing that!)
This is another way of saying "I'm going to wait for a bandwagon to form and then jump on it close to the deadline". Things like that set my Mafia alarms ringing immediately - especially since the rest of that post is just extremely wishy-washy and fluffy non-content... Kreb, if you want to convince me you're not Mafia, then who do you think is Mafia and why?
On September 02 2012 12:24 kushm4sta wrote: Are people ok with NOT lynching anyone first night or is this generally thought of as bad play? Because honestly it seems impossible to have a good idea of who is mafia by then. Last game everyone was like we NEED to lynch someone, and we ended up lynching WeeTee, an innocent! I love all my townies and I don't want to kill any.
At first I thought kushm4sta looked suspicious, but in the end, I really doubt Mafia would go on such a rampage of careless posts - they would much rather hide and wait for good opportunities. Then there's this post that he just posted:
On September 02 2012 18:45 kushm4sta wrote: ##vote kreb Post is really empty. If no one else comes along in 36ish hours I would be down with lynching him. Really premature vote, I know but I'm going to sleep for like 15 hours so it's going to be a while.
On September 02 2012 17:53 Kreb wrote: About D1 lynching, from what I've guessed so far its indeed a good idea to lynch lurkers.
Then he uses 3 sentences to explain why lurkers are bad even though they are not necessarily mafia, a completely obvious idea. So his whole lurker policy is "it's a good idea to lynch lurkers." I have news for you kreb, a total lurker will be modkilled since you have to post at least once a day. The most lurkerish person we have to deal with is 1 post a day. Speaking of 1 post a day,
Gonna have a look through some peoples posting histories later on when we get closer to the deadline and more people has posted to see if theres any chance to find hte slightest read on who could be a scum.
You do realize the deadline is very far? A day is 48 hours not 24. Damn guys town is fine. In 30 hours Kreb is going to check SOME filters for a CHANCE to find the SLIGHTEST read.
A very proactive post with good reasoning. kushm4sta is looking strongly town to me at the moment.
At first I thought kushm4sta looked suspicious, but in the end, I really doubt Mafia would go on such a rampage of careless posts - they would much rather hide and wait for good opportunities. Then there's this post that he just posted:
On September 02 2012 18:45 kushm4sta wrote: ##vote kreb Post is really empty. If no one else comes along in 36ish hours I would be down with lynching him. Really premature vote, I know but I'm going to sleep for like 15 hours so it's going to be a while.
On September 02 2012 17:53 Kreb wrote: About D1 lynching, from what I've guessed so far its indeed a good idea to lynch lurkers.
Then he uses 3 sentences to explain why lurkers are bad even though they are not necessarily mafia, a completely obvious idea. So his whole lurker policy is "it's a good idea to lynch lurkers." I have news for you kreb, a total lurker will be modkilled since you have to post at least once a day. The most lurkerish person we have to deal with is 1 post a day. Speaking of 1 post a day,
Gonna have a look through some peoples posting histories later on when we get closer to the deadline and more people has posted to see if theres any chance to find hte slightest read on who could be a scum.
You do realize the deadline is very far? A day is 48 hours not 24. Damn guys town is fine. In 30 hours Kreb is going to check SOME filters for a CHANCE to find the SLIGHTEST read.
A very proactive post with good reasoning. kushm4sta is looking strongly town to me at the moment.
Ha! the ball is starting to roll.
I honestly agree with the mafia would be less likely to go on a drunken rampage like kush is displaying. (but it is an amazing tactic{takes notes}) Also he pointed out the long day and the strange wording of Krebs message. Being my first game I completely missed the fact that in a 48 hour day you should be able to get way more than a slight read on anybody. However "closer to the deadline" doesn't mean waiting till the last minute.
In other words for not saying much Krebs has almost covered himself with this wording. I guess we should see how long is "closer to the deadline" actually is.
Also to thrawn, he probably can't justify it however if he is gone for 15 hours he may as well put a post down on whoever looks the worst. Oh and I didn't have a clue what the reference was and was completely confused. :/
On September 02 2012 19:08 thrawn2112 wrote: Do you suspect me because of the references or is there another reason?
I'm automatically extra suspicious of you because I think it would be very easy for mafia to hide behind your careful, intellectual playstyle.
On another note, we are still awaiting first posts from WeeTee, Kville, and Stutters695.
You would hope everyone uses an interlectual playstyle town and mafia though wouldn't you? Not a good reason to be suspicious in my opinion... I think you are just OMGUS-ing each other.
On September 02 2012 19:08 thrawn2112 wrote: Do you suspect me because of the references or is there another reason?
I'm automatically extra suspicious of you because I think it would be very easy for mafia to hide behind your careful, intellectual playstyle.
On another note, we are still awaiting first posts from WeeTee, Kville, and Stutters695.
You would hope everyone uses an interlectual playstyle town and mafia though wouldn't you? Not a good reason to be suspicious in my opinion... I think you are just OMGUS-ing each other.
Nah I don't have a scum read on kush at all, I'm just underwhelmed by his reads so I'm pointing out my disagreements with them. He does look like town because of how eager and fearless he's being and I don't think it's likely that he'd stick his neck out so far if he were scum.
On September 02 2012 19:38 JacobStrangelove wrote:Oh and I didn't have a clue what the reference was and was completely confused. :/
Kush was talking about all my king of the hill posts. And sorry kush they're probably going to keep coming whenever I'm bored.
As for kush's case and insanely early vote for kreb:
my comments in red
On September 02 2012 18:45 kushm4sta wrote: ##vote kreb Post is really empty. If no one else comes along in 36ish hours I would be down with lynching him. Really premature vote, I know but I'm going to sleep for like 15 hours so it's going to be a while.
Yeah it's an insanely premature vote. I don't see the logic in voting for someone based off their low post count when it's only 10 hours into the game and other people have yet to post.
On September 02 2012 17:53 Kreb wrote: About D1 lynching, from what I've guessed so far its indeed a good idea to lynch lurkers.
Then he uses 3 sentences to explain why lurkers are bad even though they are not necessarily mafia, a completely obvious idea. So his whole lurker policy is "it's a good idea to lynch lurkers."
There is nothing suspicious at all about someone who makes their first post focused entirely on lurker policy.
I have news for you kreb, a total lurker will be modkilled since you have to post at least once a day. The most lurkerish person we have to deal with is 1 post a day. Speaking of 1 post a day,
Gonna have a look through some peoples posting histories later on when we get closer to the deadline and more people has posted to see if theres any chance to find hte slightest read on who could be a scum.
You do realize the deadline is very far? A day is 48 hours not 24. Damn guys town is fine. In 30 hours Kreb is going to check SOME filters for a CHANCE to find the SLIGHTEST read.
This is the only part of kreb's post that I can see scum motivations behind, and that's only because of the wording, "slightest read." It does stick out as the scummiest thing anyone has said so far but for kush to go ahead and vote just based on a single post when we don't know what kreb's final post count will be just seems ridiculous. An ##FOS would have been more appropriate.
So no, kreb's post doesn't justify kush's vote.
On September 02 2012 19:41 JacobStrangelove wrote:You would hope everyone uses an interlectual playstyle town and mafia though wouldn't you? Not a good reason to be suspicious in my opinion... I think you are just OMGUS-ing each other.
Does your thinking kush and I are omgusing each other mean you have town reads on us?
Does your thinking kush and I are omgusing each other mean you have town reads on us?
Town until proven otherwise. But I start with everyone as town reads, town is my neutral. From that I balance all the strange/illogical things people say on a scale and whoever starts getting high I look into. I do kinda read Kush as town as (while I have only seen him play one game) it does look kinda similar to how he played last time. As for you completly null at the moment.
Also yeah it doesn't justify a vote. (maybe with him sleeping{although sleeping for 15 hours?}) But you have to start somewhere. Also thanks for reminding me about FoS. Now that I think about it that would have been completly more appropriate. For example if he votes now but doesn't do much at the other end of the day I would suspect him a lot. However if at the other end he provides arguments and such/changes vote I would think he is just over enthusiastic. (unless something else strange occurs)
On September 02 2012 10:18 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Alright fellow townies, one post before I go to bed, it's 3am over here.
Make sure to read the maffia guide thread if you haven't, it's really good. Try to make concise posts and think 'em through before posting, the last thing we need is added confusion.
We also need transparency, so try to contribute with at least one post per game day where you clearly explain your reasoning behind your most solid reads. If everyone does this, the mobsters will have to too.
And blue roles, with great power comes great responsibility, so please don't do stupid shit just because you can :p
Finally, keep in mind: if you're a vanilla townie, death by NK is a great honor and the best possible outcome for the group as a whole.
Goodnight and see ya tomorrow.
This post is extremely fluffy, even for the first post of the thread. Just look at the bolded part: there's nothing of value in all that. No opinions, no reasoning, no stances on anything... Nothing. Everything in this post screams classic Mafia pseudo-active "posting for the sake of posting".
Since this is a newbie game I think the basics needs to be pointed out asap before we move on. We just need to keep calm and make well thought-out posts, that way it'll be much more difficult for the scum to kick up shitstorms over nothing to get the town distracted. I've followed a few newbie games and the first couple of days the townies are usually too busy throwing around random accusations and lynching other townies to get any productive work going.
On September 02 2012 16:58 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Not only is a no-lynch bad, it's impossible. Read the rules.
Also, yeah, lynching active d1 posters is usually bad, especially in newbie games. Townies are usually a lot more comfortable with their role. Ime this leads the townies to post more and also say more stupid stuff. The town latches on to someone who said something stupid and we have a mislynch.
On the other hand mobsters are more careful with what they say because they don't want to slip up and get noticed. I'm mostly suspicious of semi-active posters who post nothing but fluff.
The bolded part here is something I agree with, but on the other hand, it fits Sonic Death Monkey himself quite well... His filter seems like the most semi-active and fluffy at the moment. Sonic Death Monkey, do you see anyone more suspicious than yourself (by your own standards) right now? If so, who and why?
Fair enough. I think that description fits basically anyone within the first 10-20 post of the thread though. Once the discussion gets going, like it's starting to now, we'll see which posters are ducking and which ones are actually contributing.
As for your question, I think it's easier to find people standing out as likely townies at this point. In my experience, people engaging in discussions and poo-flinging early game are less likely to be scum. For this reason, I'll give some townie points to kush and thrawn. Thrawn also seems to be a productive and solid contributor. It'll be hard for him to keep up with that if he's really scum, so some extra townie points for him.
When it comes to scum, I'm really suspicious of people who just pop in to make a fluffy post and then disappear. For now, Kreb and KillingTime seems to fit that bill.
For transparency, I think it's a good thing to for everyone to keep a list of suspects/non-suspects. This way we can hold people accountable for flip-flopping and actually demand some reasoning behind it. It'll also be easier to spot those key posts when later we'll be wading through tons of pages to do some background checks. Even though it's still early game and lots of information is yet to come, I think we might as well get this habit started now (reasoning in post above):
On September 02 2012 12:24 kushm4sta wrote: Are people ok with NOT lynching anyone first night or is this generally thought of as bad play? Because honestly it seems impossible to have a good idea of who is mafia by then. Last game everyone was like we NEED to lynch someone, and we ended up lynching WeeTee, an innocent! I love all my townies and I don't want to kill any.
I don't want a no-lynch. Even if a townie gets lynched we still gain information from their flip. If a player flips green then the next step is to look at who all played parts in getting them lynched. And besides that if we don't have a lynch goal for D1 I think there will be a lot less conversation than normal. As far as it being impossible to have a good lynch candidate, that's where lurker policy comes in.
Last game was infuriating to say the least about getting lynched first, not my finest haggling. But we won! I think the accusing and defend style is really effective at getting people to join in, and It helps with the learning curb, It did for me at least. I'm all for a content based lurker lynch, and Kush you crack me up, are you the JK again? let us know so we can count you out. Good to see you here @jacob should be a good game this time!
On September 02 2012 19:08 Xatalos wrote: There are a couple of posts that caught my attention.
On September 02 2012 10:18 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Alright fellow townies, one post before I go to bed, it's 3am over here.
Make sure to read the maffia guide thread if you haven't, it's really good. Try to make concise posts and think 'em through before posting, the last thing we need is added confusion.
We also need transparency, so try to contribute with at least one post per game day where you clearly explain your reasoning behind your most solid reads. If everyone does this, the mobsters will have to too.
And blue roles, with great power comes great responsibility, so please don't do stupid shit just because you can :p
Finally, keep in mind: if you're a vanilla townie, death by NK is a great honor and the best possible outcome for the group as a whole.
Goodnight and see ya tomorrow.
This post is extremely fluffy, even for the first post of the thread. Just look at the bolded part: there's nothing of value in all that. No opinions, no reasoning, no stances on anything... Nothing. Everything in this post screams classic Mafia pseudo-active "posting for the sake of posting".
Since this is a newbie game I think the basics needs to be pointed out asap before we move on. We just need to keep calm and make well thought-out posts, that way it'll be much more difficult for the scum to kick up shitstorms over nothing to get the town distracted. I've followed a few newbie games and the first couple of days the townies are usually too busy throwing around random accusations and lynching other townies to get any productive work going.
On September 02 2012 16:58 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Not only is a no-lynch bad, it's impossible. Read the rules.
Also, yeah, lynching active d1 posters is usually bad, especially in newbie games. Townies are usually a lot more comfortable with their role. Ime this leads the townies to post more and also say more stupid stuff. The town latches on to someone who said something stupid and we have a mislynch.
On the other hand mobsters are more careful with what they say because they don't want to slip up and get noticed. I'm mostly suspicious of semi-active posters who post nothing but fluff.
The bolded part here is something I agree with, but on the other hand, it fits Sonic Death Monkey himself quite well... His filter seems like the most semi-active and fluffy at the moment. Sonic Death Monkey, do you see anyone more suspicious than yourself (by your own standards) right now? If so, who and why?
Fair enough. I think that description fits basically anyone within the first 10-20 post of the thread though. Once the discussion gets going, like it's starting to now, we'll see which posters are ducking and which ones are actually contributing.
As for your question, I think it's easier to find people standing out as likely townies at this point. In my experience, people engaging in discussions and poo-flinging early game are less likely to be scum. For this reason, I'll give some townie points to kush and thrawn. Thrawn also seems to be a productive and solid contributor. It'll be hard for him to keep up with that if he's really scum, so some extra townie points for him.
When it comes to scum, I'm really suspicious of people who just pop in to make a fluffy post and then disappear. For now, Kreb and KillingTime seems to fit that bill.
It's good to see some content from you (I agree with your point about thrawn2112), but the bolded part here is just... weak. Okay, Kreb and KillingTime have done basically nothing so far. But the same applies to Cubu, WeeTee and drazak. Why do you think Kreb and KillingTime are scummy but players like Cubu, WeeTee or drazak are not? Show some reasoning, not just a basic statement.
(As a sidenote, the above mentioned lurkers + Kville should really start posting some more, or it's going to be much more difficult to identify the Mafia lurkers.)
Just wanted to step by and say that Im home (wooo, cant believe my previous post stirred up all of this!), Ive read everything, taken notes and I'll be posting a larger piece later this evening!
On September 02 2012 21:07 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 02 2012 19:08 Xatalos wrote: There are a couple of posts that caught my attention.
On September 02 2012 10:18 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Alright fellow townies, one post before I go to bed, it's 3am over here.
Make sure to read the maffia guide thread if you haven't, it's really good. Try to make concise posts and think 'em through before posting, the last thing we need is added confusion.
We also need transparency, so try to contribute with at least one post per game day where you clearly explain your reasoning behind your most solid reads. If everyone does this, the mobsters will have to too.
And blue roles, with great power comes great responsibility, so please don't do stupid shit just because you can :p
Finally, keep in mind: if you're a vanilla townie, death by NK is a great honor and the best possible outcome for the group as a whole.
Goodnight and see ya tomorrow.
This post is extremely fluffy, even for the first post of the thread. Just look at the bolded part: there's nothing of value in all that. No opinions, no reasoning, no stances on anything... Nothing. Everything in this post screams classic Mafia pseudo-active "posting for the sake of posting".
Since this is a newbie game I think the basics needs to be pointed out asap before we move on. We just need to keep calm and make well thought-out posts, that way it'll be much more difficult for the scum to kick up shitstorms over nothing to get the town distracted. I've followed a few newbie games and the first couple of days the townies are usually too busy throwing around random accusations and lynching other townies to get any productive work going.
On September 02 2012 19:08 Xatalos wrote:
On September 02 2012 16:58 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Not only is a no-lynch bad, it's impossible. Read the rules.
Also, yeah, lynching active d1 posters is usually bad, especially in newbie games. Townies are usually a lot more comfortable with their role. Ime this leads the townies to post more and also say more stupid stuff. The town latches on to someone who said something stupid and we have a mislynch.
On the other hand mobsters are more careful with what they say because they don't want to slip up and get noticed. I'm mostly suspicious of semi-active posters who post nothing but fluff.
The bolded part here is something I agree with, but on the other hand, it fits Sonic Death Monkey himself quite well... His filter seems like the most semi-active and fluffy at the moment. Sonic Death Monkey, do you see anyone more suspicious than yourself (by your own standards) right now? If so, who and why?
Fair enough. I think that description fits basically anyone within the first 10-20 post of the thread though. Once the discussion gets going, like it's starting to now, we'll see which posters are ducking and which ones are actually contributing.
As for your question, I think it's easier to find people standing out as likely townies at this point. In my experience, people engaging in discussions and poo-flinging early game are less likely to be scum. For this reason, I'll give some townie points to kush and thrawn. Thrawn also seems to be a productive and solid contributor. It'll be hard for him to keep up with that if he's really scum, so some extra townie points for him.
When it comes to scum, I'm really suspicious of people who just pop in to make a fluffy post and then disappear. For now, Kreb and KillingTime seems to fit that bill.
It's good to see some content from you (I agree with your point about thrawn2112), but the bolded part here is just... weak. Okay, Kreb and KillingTime have done basically nothing so far. But the same applies to Cubu, WeeTee and drazak. Why do you think Kreb and KillingTime are scummy but players like Cubu, WeeTee or drazak are not? Show some reasoning, not just a basic statement.
(As a sidenote, the above mentioned lurkers + Kville should really start posting some more, or it's going to be much more difficult to identify the Mafia lurkers.)
I agree it's weak, that's why I said: "I think it's easier to find people standing out as likely townies at this point". I think the reasoning behind it is solid, but this early information is obviously limited. If nothing else, putting a little bit of heat on them might induce them to contribute more.
The reason I didn't include Cubu and drazak is because both their two first post are the kind of flimsy first couple of post I expect from comfortable townies (particularly Cubu's). TeeWee just entered the thread with the mother of all fluffy posts, so he'll be on the list as well.
Sorry WeeTee but here we go again. I find it suspicious that you would jump into the thread at this point and not say anything about current events or your reads. It looks like scum trying to hide, or townie who isn't putting in the necessary effort. Kreb, same sentiment to you until you make that post you promised us.
@ drazak, kreb, cubu, kville, killingtime and stutters... you guys need to get in here and share some reads. None of you have assigned a read of any kind on anyone.
When we call for an “active” thread - I think what we mean is players making logical cases and then responding to them.
Here are my current reads so far. I would consider them weak ( esp as we have players who have hardly/not posted yet), but if they are not addressed in later play then I will be concerned - :
Scummy: SonicDeathMonkey: I appreciate your efforts to keep the thread ordered and moving along. But, that is a nice null read at best. Your posting reads too much like scum trying to push others along without much substantive play in the hope that it will create a nice wagon to jump on or an outspoken townie you can target. You must stop trying to play threadcop and post some original reads with better reasoning.
JacobStrangelove: Almost every post in your filter thus far is wishy washy and lacking in any content - your conclusion on lynching lurkers? It comes down to instinct. On nolynch day one: You disagree(only acceptable response to that dumb question) - but do “know what you mean”. On my first post? “Maybe it was pointless.. but on the flip side”. You have managed to be active without any content on even the most innocuous of debates - scummy until you get more involved with the thread.
WeeTee - I agree with thrawn that only a fluffy first post, is now hard to justify now that there has been some discussion. Needs to follow up with a better second post. Weetee can stand in for anyone else who has not posted as well, at this point we have enough of a thread that just a fluff post is not a good entrance.
Towny: thrawn Xatalos Both have posted good content, logically reasoned.
Unsure: Kushm4sta’s posting so far confuses me. I need to think about them more/see what else he posts before I develop any kind of read.
Fluff: - I have never watched the TV show the flavour for this game is based on - so please don’t make any jokes and expect me to understand them.
I'll split up my post into 3 because they kinda touch on 3 difference things.
Ok, here we go. Comments on people in order of appearance on the player list!
1) KillingTime Pretty good post. Somewhat agreeing with the reads on Sonic and Jacob (both careful but active posters). Not agreeing on Xatalos. Slight town read.
2) drazak Nothing. Just agreeing.
3) kushm4sta Most information about so far. Two options: A) Senseless accusations based on one post (my post) which agrees on the same thing everyone else already agreed on (I just agree like all others did, I couldnt imagine it would cause this to occur :p). Could mean hes "over-scumhunting" due to inexperience (if you believe in something you, unconsciously, look for confirmations to said belief and find "proofs" for it where there is none). Funnily enough, if A is the case, thats a slight/medium townread. It seems quite unlikely a mafia would come barking in like that with senseless accusations. B) Is kinda playing with the rest of us trying to provoke discussions/force reactions by purposedly posting senseless accusations. Actually, I kinda like that. It creates discussion and forces opinions, which later can be checked back when we know more about who is/was mafia/town. Actually, I would argue provoking by random accusations is something a good player should probably have in his repertoire. And conversely, if B is true, the town read is gone and he could either be a townie looking for clues or a rather hardcore metaing mafia. Either way B likely means hes more of an asset as town and a more dangerous opponent as mafial. --- Looking through his posting in previous Newbie mafia, I'd say it supports A over B. Town read remains.
4) WeeTee One post. Nothing really.
5) thrawn2112 Most thoughtful posting so far. Nothing which really points either way. Could maybe argue he had no reason to step into my defense had he been mafia. If so, he should have preferred to leave it, So possibly a very slight townread for that reason. Seemingly asset-if-town and dangerous-if-mafia though. Posting seem to be similar to his previous posts (as town then).
6) Xatalos Long post, not much else than agreeing and questioning. Also agreeing with senseless post by kush. Agreeing with senseless posting is however more "mafia-ish" than senseless posting itself. Very slight mafia read. Is this what you would call FoS? =)
7) Kville Nothing.
8) Cubu Two short posts. Nothing really.
9) Kreb Myself!
10) Stutters695 No posts.
11) JacobStrangelove Bunch of posts. Not much worth mentioning though. Thoughtful but careful posting. Not actively defending me as thrawn but still not buying the kush posts. Careful being the key word. Nothing worth drawing conclusions on but definitely something worth keeping in mind should this habit change. Too bad he doesnt have a posting history to look at. :p
12) Sonic Death Monkey Solid posting. Also careful though. Seems to have good ideas. Possibly a bit early conclusions, but hes at least aware of it. Ind the end, not much really. Also without history.
On the wording of "slight" (which people seemed to question): Im not sure what words the rest of you prefer. But to me, first day is gonna be almost random. It would be incredibly interesting to know what kind of "mafia hit rate" games have on first day. Because with 9 townies and 3 other mafias, you'd be hitting mafias 25% of the time if D1 lynch was random. And quite frankly I really doubt you're ever gonna get much higher hit rate than that. Maybe even lower. Recent newbie games also supports 25%, although the sample size is obviously VERY small.
So to me, I got 11 people I can vote for and 3 mafias. Thats 27%. To me, a "slight" read on someone is if I maybe consider it to be 30 or 35% chance of him being a mafia (mind you, still below 50%). A "medium" read would be closer to if I believe its 50%. A "strong" read would maybe be, I dunno, 75%. When people post they got "solid" or "strong" read on day 1 after 1 post, Im honestly totally going O.O (yes I did exactly that). And I cant help counter-asking, what exactly is a "slight" read for you in that case?
Face it, D1 is gonna be a mostly random vote on very small reads. Our chance of hitting wont go up to 50% or anything. Its the name of the game. So since there wont be any strong reads (what I'd call strong), slight reads are better than nothing. Voting on a slight read isnt good, but its the least bad option we have D1.
(by kush) Yes. And I have no idea why you would imply I didnt.
Question to kush: Why such aggressive, borderline unpleasant, posting due to one post by one person on D1? Try to ignore the fact that this is coming from the guy you accused. Im trying to find out why you would think that KIND of posting was appropriate. You could have expressed your suspicions in a much nicer and more composed way without almost ridiculing me (and maybe got more support for your claim then?). Why did you choose such agressive posting?
Kreb, if you want to convince me you're not Mafia, then who do you think is Mafia and why?
(by Xatalos) I dont think anyone is mafia at this point. As I said, barring some mafia making a terrible slip-up and revealing themselves, I dont "think" anything yet. At best, I have a very slight read right now, and I dont expect to get much more of a read before D1 is over.
This is another way of saying "I'm going to wait for a bandwagon to form and then jump on it close to the deadline".
Can you please elaborate on how what I said is another way of saying this? To me, its the opposite. Im actually committing to not bandwagoning by posting something like that (and I believe I have now also fullfilled said commitment, hah), as I say I will do other things to find clues. So please, do elaborate.
If I had to vote right now, I'd probably just blow my vote on either of the non-posters or single-posters so far. If I had to vote on someone who has been posting, Xatalos would probably be my choice. But no, that doesnt necessarily mean that I think he (or anyone else) is mafia. At least not yet.
On September 02 2012 23:09 KillingTime wrote: When we call for an “active” thread - I think what we mean is players making logical cases and then responding to them.
Here are my current reads so far. I would consider them weak ( esp as we have players who have hardly/not posted yet), but if they are not addressed in later play then I will be concerned - :
Scummy: SonicDeathMonkey: I appreciate your efforts to keep the thread ordered and moving along. But, that is a nice null read at best. Your posting reads too much like scum trying to push others along without much substantive play in the hope that it will create a nice wagon to jump on or an outspoken townie you can target. You must stop trying to play threadcop and post some original reads with better reasoning.
JacobStrangelove: Almost every post in your filter thus far is wishy washy and lacking in any content - your conclusion on lynching lurkers? It comes down to instinct. On nolynch day one: You disagree(only acceptable response to that dumb question) - but do “know what you mean”. On my first post? “Maybe it was pointless.. but on the flip side”. You have managed to be active without any content on even the most innocuous of debates - scummy until you get more involved with the thread.
WeeTee - I agree with thrawn that only a fluffy first post, is now hard to justify now that there has been some discussion. Needs to follow up with a better second post. Weetee can stand in for anyone else who has not posted as well, at this point we have enough of a thread that just a fluff post is not a good entrance.
Towny: thrawn Xatalos Both have posted good content, logically reasoned.
Unsure: Kushm4sta’s posting so far confuses me. I need to think about them more/see what else he posts before I develop any kind of read.
Fluff: - I have never watched the TV show the flavour for this game is based on - so please don’t make any jokes and expect me to understand them.
As far as I can tell you've just latched on to my reads and reasonings for thrawn and WeeTee, I don't see why you'd accuse me of not having original reads.
Kush is acting too spazzy not to be considered townie. Throwing in a random vote early with really baseless accusations is not what scum will do. He's also in my townie list. When it comes to your reads on Xatalos I tend to agree, he goes in the same category as thrawn. You yourself provided a good follow up to your first post, I have no real reason to suspect you.
On September 02 2012 23:59 Kreb wrote: 3) kushm4sta Most information about so far. Two options: A) Senseless accusations based on one post (my post) which agrees on the same thing everyone else already agreed on (I just agree like all others did, I couldnt imagine it would cause this to occur :p). Could mean hes "over-scumhunting" due to inexperience (if you believe in something you, unconsciously, look for confirmations to said belief and find "proofs" for it where there is none). Funnily enough, if A is the case, thats a slight/medium townread. It seems quite unlikely a mafia would come barking in like that with senseless accusations. B) Is kinda playing with the rest of us trying to provoke discussions/force reactions by purposedly posting senseless accusations. Actually, I kinda like that. It creates discussion and forces opinions, which later can be checked back when we know more about who is/was mafia/town. Actually, I would argue provoking by random accusations is something a good player should probably have in his repertoire. And conversely, if B is true, the town read is gone and he could either be a townie looking for clues or a rather hardcore metaing mafia. Either way B likely means hes more of an asset as town and a more dangerous opponent as mafial. --- Looking through his posting in previous Newbie mafia, I'd say it supports A over B. Town read remains.
Since I haven't been active in the maffia thread before I have no pre-game reads on people, but I definitely read kush's as an inexperienced townie.
- An inexperienced townie tends to often act spazzy because he knows he's townie and somehow underestimates the power of the imperfect information in this game. Once his spazzy actions leads to a bandwagon he becomes aware of how difficult it actually is to convince others of his innocence and stop the wagon. - An inexperienced scum on the other hand is afraid of attention because he realizes the danger of a bandwagon. Since he has close to full information he feels guilty from the get go and wants to stay out of sticky situations.
Assuming players are capable of high level meta in newbie games will end up with disaster almost always. If kush actually was experienced his action would've been weird, as is I view them as clear cut townie. This is a clear cut situation where occam's razor is our friend.
I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.
3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.
So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0.
Question to Sonic: Upon Xatalos calling you out a bit for not contributing, you reply with this:
Fair enough. I think that description fits basically anyone within the first 10-20 post of the thread though. Once the discussion gets going, like it's starting to now, we'll see which posters are ducking and which ones are actually contributing.
(Personal opinion: I agree with you and wouldnt hold that against you, I think Xatalos was "over-scumhunting".)
Then next post, you list me and KillingTime as scum for that very reason. Becaue we didnt contribute with our first two posts (which I agree we didnt).
But the obvious question then: Why would you list two people as possible scum for the very same reason you used yourself to explain why your own posts werent full of contribution?
On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote: Im not lurking! I just woke up!
Got anything to say other than you're not lurking? It's been almost 2 hours since that first post of yours and I expected you to post something substantial by now. Aside from stutters who hasn't posted you're #1 on my lurker watch-list.
On September 03 2012 00:04 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
As far as I can tell you've just latched on to my reads and reasonings for thrawn and WeeTee, I don't see why you'd accuse me of not having original reads.
In the future remember that pointing out hypocrisy does nothing to address a person's argument.
JacobStrangelove: Out of all the non-lurkers you've participated the least in scumhunting (asking questions, pointing out posts you find scummy, etc), is there anyone you find suspicious?
Cuba that last post of yours is useless for the purposes of scumhunting.
On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote: I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.
3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.
So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0.
If that was the case, then Kville, TeeWee, dazark and you would be prime candidates. You're the ones flying under the radar atm.
The observations you make in this post are both obvious and have been covered earlier in the thread. It isn't very convincing and it makes you suspicious. I'm sorry if it's just due to inexperience, but if you want to contribute you need up your level of analysis. To update my list:
Townie: kush xatalos thrawn
Scum: teewee cuba
Killer and Kreb dropped from suspect list due to solid contributions.
Fair enough. I think that description fits basically anyone within the first 10-20 post of the thread though. Once the discussion gets going, like it's starting to now, we'll see which posters are ducking and which ones are actually contributing.
(Personal opinion: I agree with you and wouldnt hold that against you, I think Xatalos was "over-scumhunting".)
Then next post, you list me and KillingTime as scum for that very reason. Becaue we didnt contribute with our first two posts (which I agree we didnt).
But the obvious question then: Why would you list two people as possible scum for the very same reason you used yourself to explain why your own posts werent full of contribution?
The reason was not so much the level of contribution (although that's a factor), but the fact that you just made one post and disappeared. Ime it's common for scum to make a post to make their presence known and then stay out of the thread expecting townies to start flinging poo at eachother (and it tends to work). Like I said, at that stage they were very loosely based accusation but if nothing else it might induce those people to start posting.
On September 02 2012 23:09 KillingTime wrote: When we call for an “active” thread - I think what we mean is players making logical cases and then responding to them.
JacobStrangelove: Almost every post in your filter thus far is wishy washy and lacking in any content - your conclusion on lynching lurkers? It comes down to instinct. On nolynch day one: You disagree(only acceptable response to that dumb question) - but do “know what you mean”. On my first post? “Maybe it was pointless.. but on the flip side”. You have managed to be active without any content on even the most innocuous of debates - scummy until you get more involved with the thread.
Well first I would like to deal with this; I do have a very back in forth style of conversation. One of my strengths/problems I that have a very open minded approach. I don’t work on scum or not scum I work on the probability and likelihood.
On September 02 2012 19:38 JacobStrangelove wrote: I honestly agree with the mafia would be less likely to go on a drunken rampage like kush is displaying.
This is amplified when there is so little to go on. Also I don’t see much difference between your first post.
On September 02 2012 15:19 KillingTime wrote: Good Morning All, (and Glhf). It has been a bit of a wait but it's nice to be getting started. I don't think no-lynch is a good idea - at the very least a lynch discussion generates some substantive posts that can be analysed later. Without a lynch discussion we will have a tougher time D2, because policy/activity/setup chatter is pretty much a Null read.And ofc, we are aiming to hit scum...
And mine
On September 02 2012 11:33 JacobStrangelove wrote: I guess part of it comes down to instinct and analysing what you can such as who defends them and why.
We both refer to analysis (not just instinct) and another thing I noted If we go back to my other post regarding no lynch (posted before yours) we find this
On September 02 2012 12:48 JacobStrangelove wrote: To lynch or not to lynch that is the question! But lynching does give information which is something that is normally lacking in the first day. If we didn't lynch then the second day would be much like the first (confusion etc..) But I was watching last game so I know what you mean. Besides the town with bad arguments or the ones that don't post normally get lynched first (or the ones that panic which is understandable) so it's not like we lose a really valuable analyst if we lynch first day.
So we are both talking about the exact same thing. I say second day would be much like the first and right after you say it will be tougher day 2. So I don’t think you can fairly say I have been more or less inactive than you have. The only thing that makes you “less scum” is the fact you posted a list of people you have slight reads on. In your second post after waiting a fairly large amount of time. From your first post I got the impression you just woke up (looking at time zones you are in euro I might be correct) Basic maths not my strong point. (That said you might have had work) Now while this conviction makes you seem more town it’s easy to say you have a scum read on everyone afk such as weetee so this doesn’t put you in any trouble. There is already some tension on Sonic so he is also a safe “weak read”
So I do have some reads. These are obviously slight reads but aren’t they all. In order of most scummy. Scum: Killing time: I do read you as scum you post twice one with a very safe set of people to accuse (apart from myself to this point) and you were missing for a large period of time with no apparent reason.
Sonic: I am also unsure about sonic due to the point you brought up regarding him being a fluffy poster as well. That said (I am doing this again I know...) what he said about it fitting everyone in the thread so far also is a sound argument. However my initial scum read was sonic. (due to fluffy posting) only question is why would a sonic Killing time team act this way? Drazak: Looking at his pre-game very active at many different times when game starts almost nothing 3 posts that make almost anyone’s “fluffy posting” look like logical geniuses. Cuba: Lurk factor (just appeared!) Funny he would mention the mafia lurking when he seemed to be lurking But these are only first impressions so we shall see.
Townies Xatalos: I think he is providing good solid posts asking questions. Kush: probably town or a really twisted scum. Mostly likely town though as I said in my other post “(I honestly agree with the mafia would be less likely to go on a drunken rampage like kush is displaying.)” Thrawn: Only a very slight town read active ready to throw around accusations etc.. Doesn’t seem like scum behaviour.
No clue WeeTee: going to withhold judgment as I have nothing. Killing mentioned that having a fluff entrance post is bad at this time in the discussion but honestly I probably would have entered the same way. Only difference is I would post more after though. Kreb: Maybe a scum read but not enough to put him in there. His “list” is basically just agreeing with everything except the one person that is controversial. Possible Kreb/Killing team?
Kville: only post is not lurking just woke up. (you sleep for a while) this does match up actually. If you look at his pregame post Kville United States. August 29 2012 22:00. Posts 99” and his not lurking post “Kville United States. September 02 2012 22:57. Posts 99” Times match up exactly.
Kreb, if you want to convince me you're not Mafia, then who do you think is Mafia and why?
(by Xatalos) I dont think anyone is mafia at this point. As I said, barring some mafia making a terrible slip-up and revealing themselves, I dont "think" anything yet. At best, I have a very slight read right now, and I dont expect to get much more of a read before D1 is over.
This is another way of saying "I'm going to wait for a bandwagon to form and then jump on it close to the deadline".
Can you please elaborate on how what I said is another way of saying this? To me, its the opposite. Im actually committing to not bandwagoning by posting something like that (and I believe I have now also fullfilled said commitment, hah), as I say I will do other things to find clues. So please, do elaborate.
If I had to vote right now, I'd probably just blow my vote on either of the non-posters or single-posters so far. If I had to vote on someone who has been posting, Xatalos would probably be my choice. But no, that doesnt necessarily mean that I think he (or anyone else) is mafia. At least not yet.
It's so very easy to say things like "I'll post something useful closer to the deadline". As Mafia, it's the perfect situation: you can observe the thread and then start pushing someone who would have been lynched anyway. You have now started actually posting, so it doesn't look as bad for you, but the original point still stands. Why would a townie feel the need to make such a promise about his future contributions? That just screams inherent guilt and desire to push the attention to other lurkers. Maybe this is going too deep, but that's how I see the situation.
kushm4sta's strong accusation of you was maybe too hasty, but it showed that he was ready to share his thought processes without hesitation. That reads town to me. It wasn't such a bad accusation either, even if it jumped to conclusions too fast. kushm4sta's careless and hasty posts look way more townish than your slight reads and careful stances.
Anyways, now I have to return to military service. I'll be back tomorrow with more analysis when our evening break begins.
I sleep kind of odd hours, I've been asleep, sorry for not being active. I was one of the first few posts, thus there was almost nothing of substance, the first few posts are almost always all fluffy filler. I don't have any good reads yet, just skepticism. I'll be back in a few hours to give you some better reads. To be honest, we're probably going to end up lynching a townie, and we /shouldn't feel bad/. Lynching a townie seems to almost always happen. While it's most beneficial to lynch mafia (obviously), anyone that talked about doing a no-lynch is out of their gourd, no-lynching doesn't affect the ratio at all, and doesn't even give us a chance at killing mafia. That just means that the mafia have a free night, maybe we get info from who they kill, but it's nothing conclusive.
I'll be back later today to make some better reads, not sure exactly when (N.B. I know I said in a few hours, could be closer to the end of the "day", could be later in the actual day, etc) I'm helping move my dad into his new house.
On September 03 2012 01:02 JacobStrangelove wrote: you were missing for a large period of time with no apparent reason.
Leaving aside your other points for the moment - I don't think that this is a fair accusation. I posted once in the morning when I had woken up and saw the game had begun, and again in the afternoon when there had been some more discussion in the thread. I will probably try to make a longer post again this evening. I feel that is a good activity level.
On September 03 2012 01:02 JacobStrangelove wrote: you were missing for a large period of time with no apparent reason.
Leaving aside your other points for the moment - I don't think that this is a fair accusation. I posted once in the morning when I had woken up and saw the game had begun, and again in the afternoon when there had been some more discussion in the thread. I will probably try to make a longer post again this evening. I feel that is a good activity level.
Ehh that sounds fair. I more posted that for that clarification.
I think part of it is I read mafia threads after they are finished (mostly) so I have a warped perspective of time. That said it's almost 3am so going to sleep night!
On September 02 2012 12:24 kushm4sta wrote: Are people ok with NOT lynching anyone first night or is this generally thought of as bad play? Because honestly it seems impossible to have a good idea of who is mafia by then. Last game everyone was like we NEED to lynch someone, and we ended up lynching WeeTee, an innocent! I love all my townies and I don't want to kill any.
I don't want a no-lynch. Even if a townie gets lynched we still gain information from their flip. If a player flips green then the next step is to look at who all played parts in getting them lynched. And besides that if we don't have a lynch goal for D1 I think there will be a lot less conversation than normal. As far as it being impossible to have a good lynch candidate, that's where lurker policy comes in.
Emphasis mine, double emphasis on the underlined part.
Regardless of if we lynch a lurker or not, coming out and deciding to lynch a lurker in the first 12 hours is going to stifle discussion and allow the mafia to know exactly what they need to do to not die (just be less lurky than someone else). In theory this works to get everyone discussing but if there is even one town who isn't posting often it gives the mafia a free pass D1.
On September 02 2012 12:29 kushm4sta wrote: Also guys remember school starts soon if it hasn't already started. Sept 4th for me. This is going to make it kind of hard to distinguish malicious lurkers because people will have a good excuse.
Low post count doesn't mean someone isn't town. Check my filter in NMMXXIV. Hopefully I'll be able to be more active here but why someone has a low post count isn't as important as what they say in their few posts.
Regarding lists: This might be just me, but I don't want lists posted throughout the game. It's an easy wall for scum to hide behind without explaining why they think what they do and without forcing them to ever commit.
Will have individual questions for people in a bit.
Stutters you're the last one in the thread, so it's your turn to to wipe the propane tanks out back. Head to feet, you won't cause a leak. Feet to head, everyone's dead.
People who as of now deserve to be lynched: drazak, weetee, kville, cubu and stutters. You guys have 1 or slightly more than 1 post and haven't contributed any reads. Absolutely the scummiest looking players right now.
As for the active players, I want to see more out of JacobStrangelove. His posts have failed to impress. His biggest contribution to the thread so far is typing up a list with short explanations for his reads on everyone. That is not scumhunting. Anyone can type up a list and include short justifications for early reads. A town player is more focused on actively contributing towards the process of finding scum and that's not what I'm seeing out of Jacob.
On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote: Im not lurking! I just woke up!
Kville what are you doing? So far all you have done is make a single post to clarify that you're not lurking.
I agree with stutters, the list stuff is kinda silly. I say they're a waste of time/effort. I'm not going to hold it against any of you that make them unless that's the extent of your contribution to the thread. Our focus needs to be more directed on scumhunting than just constantly updating lists of casual one liners about each player.
Goodnight all... There are several people who have promised us questions / their thoughts and several who are I would hope would be offering us some thoughts shortly (Cuba?). I look forward to this!
Jacob, I did not find your response to me very helpful, it was clearly contradictory for you to say that my reads were very/too safe and then give the "reads" that you did. I don't have any more scumhunting to offer at the moment though so I will nod off and see what the morning brings.
About to go to sleep, but so far I see no reason not to stick to the initial idea of voting against low/no post players. Hopefully we get some more information until tomorrow.
I have awoken from my epic slumber. I gotta say I am quite satisfied with kreb's response. It was quite long and in depth and revealed his thoughts about everyone. ##unvote
We have some serious lurker issues this game. Kville is about as lurker as you can get. @WeeTee and drazak, thanks guys for that killer analysis about why a no lynch d1 is a bad idea. I already heard it like 3 or 4 times but you two saying the same exact thing really brought it home.
Then we have Cubu, who may not be the lurkerest lurker, but to me is the most suspicious. I don't think enough attention has been paid to this post, in which Cubu gives us a lecture on probability:
On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote: I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.
3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.
So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0.
1 I don't buy that he doesn't know how many mafia there are. Especially since he uses 3 in all his subsequent equations. 2 Whenever someone starts talking about the math I get suspicious. It's a way to write a lot without revealing anything but the universal laws of nature. 3 Admittedly his last sentence does seem kind of town. I think his take home point is that we shouldn't all accuse each other and let mafia lurk. But that is not really what's going on so far. There has been slight suspicion of non lurkers, but most of the attention has been directed towards accusing the lurkers and trying to get them to defend themselves.
I think a mafia Cubu may be using this reasoning as a way to appear like he is contributing. So far I think he is our best lynch, even though we have bigger lurkers. ##vote Cubu
And yeah grandma thrawn I put it in the voting thread too.
On September 03 2012 08:03 kushm4sta wrote:And yeah grandma thrawn I put it in the voting thread too.
thanks kush you make me proud
In regards to your vote... I think cubu is a good pick, but I'm also considering drazak for the same reasons I'm assuming you selected cubu. Both of them have been present since the beginning of the game yet they haven't contributed anything beyond discussing policy type of stuff. Stutters, weetee, and kville all have 1 post each so I'm willing to accept they've just gotten into the game late. The difference between the 1 post players and cubu/drazak is that cubu/drazak both posted at the start of the game so they have less of an excuse for not contributing.
Do you have any scum reads on the active players? Right now I'm looking at jacob:
On September 03 2012 05:39 thrawn2112 wrote: As for the active players, I want to see more out of JacobStrangelove. His posts have failed to impress. His biggest contribution to the thread so far is typing up a list with short explanations for his reads on everyone. That is not scumhunting. Anyone can type up a list and include short justifications for early reads. A town player is more focused on actively contributing towards the process of finding scum and that's not what I'm seeing out of Jacob.
I'd like to start my post with 2 town reads. Firstly Kush: From our previous game has been really consistent in his style and has kept it up here in the same manner, there is no reason I suspect him, unless he reveals his role again. Secondly Thrawn: again I have come to know the style of his and I think he provokes people and is really active, I cant see a difference in alignment in his posts (last time being town) so for now he is town in my eyes. All the rest I'm uncomfortable about. Based on how I view my ("thrawn town meta")(I learnt it from his posts). I see Jacob and Xatalos using a similar play style so also put them closer to town for the reason of being pokie and contributive. By default I put the rest on the not quite town side. KillingTime, drazak, kville, cubu, kreb, stutters and sonic.
On September 03 2012 01:02 JacobStrangelove wrote: you were missing for a large period of time with no apparent reason.
Leaving aside your other points for the moment - I don't think that this is a fair accusation. I posted once in the morning when I had woken up and saw the game had begun, and again in the afternoon when there had been some more discussion in the thread. I will probably try to make a longer post again this evening. I feel that is a good activity level.
I think your defence is fine about not posting, especially on D1, the game needs to be played but we all have lives too.
Drazak Your posts are to the point but only about rules. I have no judgement until you post more.
kville wth is going on?
cubu
On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote: I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.
3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.
So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0.
This post for me is the most scum like I can find at this stage. Miss quoting the rules with the "There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?)" seems pointless when they are on page one, I have only a small feeling of confusion about this and if Kush is any precedent you may as well be town too!
kreb 5 post ago you made a list like some others in the game stating your thoughts, I like that you included your self in the list, that is when we look at posters that; Are active and start a forward hunt by making everyone list things and then by leading the list dont put them selves on it. To me by including yourself this is a lean to town as well.
stutters Your defence about not posting and its correlation with you in the past being town is interesting, I feel like I would start with that kind of post in the future if I kept getting D1 lynched too. So again from that point of view I would lean towards town.
sonic
On September 02 2012 21:14 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: For transparency, I think it's a good thing to for everyone to keep a list of suspects/non-suspects. This way we can hold people accountable for flip-flopping and actually demand some reasoning behind it. It'll also be easier to spot those key posts when later we'll be wading through tons of pages to do some background checks. Even though it's still early game and lots of information is yet to come, I think we might as well get this habit started now (reasoning in post above):
Townie: thrawn kush
Scum: KillingTime Kreb
You are the one with the lists that I refer to, still this is a null read because list are not a bad idea.
Just letting you all know I am here and want to contribute. I will be posting and looking for new reads as best as I can.
As for the active players, I want to see more out of JacobStrangelove. His posts have failed to impress. His biggest contribution to the thread so far is typing up a list with short explanations for his reads on everyone. That is not scumhunting. Anyone can type up a list and include short justifications for early reads. A town player is more focused on actively contributing towards the process of finding scum and that's not what I'm seeing out of Jacob.
I am not sure what you mean by not actively hunting scum. I have been looking at the lurkers pregame posts and finding things that match and things that don’t make sense. For example I rationalised at the time since the Kville posts were so close in time that he had only just started his active online time. However now that he hasn’t posted anything he could very well be a panicking mafia. If he just woke up you would assume he would post by now. (also did the same with Drazak but in this case got suspicion however he said he just woke up and it would take a few hours)
But in this case Cuba is defiantly more mafia than Kville is. Because you would assume a mafia would at least post something slightly substantial to try and get “posting points” Cuba fits this bill nicely. He posted a practically useless post about numbers and saying we should lynch the lurkers. He is a lurker himself however if he is going with a strategy of lynch the person who lurks the most then obviously all he needs to do is post more than they do. If such a strategy occurred that might be 2 or so free kills for mafia before he is lynched (bussed or whatever you call it) and by that time mafia would have a really good chance of winning. (Assuming the mafia maintain a fairly active stance).
On September 03 2012 07:43 KillingTime wrote: Jacob, I did not find your response to me very helpful, it was clearly contradictory for you to say that my reads were very/too safe and then give the "reads" that you did. I don't have any more scumhunting to offer at the moment though so I will nod off and see what the morning brings.
So you are saying it’s safe to put you as scum xD But there might be a difference between safe and obvious. Such as Cuba. You are slowly working back to town on my list but I am still not convinced. Just seemed like how I would play mafia. I would be far less likely to fluff post due to being accused of fluff posts (can’t have fun *sob* people to kill *sob*)
Ok so kush is back! (and the games begin) (btw I would argue that maths isn’t part of universal laws of nature but to avoid wish wash I won’t{the concept behind... oh never mind})
So it seems the focus is on cuba/drazak. This seems a logical approach due to both lurkers not posting anything of worth or hardly anything at all. Drazak sleeps at strange hours (Which I completely understand) but it is still odd. Most of what I have is circumstantial evidence. Also he is inactive in other threads. Cuba is now a higher scum read than killing is. Although I admit I might have a slight bias against someone with killing in his name.
Writing this I seem to have forgotten about Kreb, I haven’t noticed anything unusual about him it seems. Responded well to his attacker/s and such.
I am far more likely to town read WeeTee now, he has posted more listed reasons(more so than most lurkers to the point where he isn’t lurking). Also a good reason for thinking kreb is town. Putting yourself on a list probably raises your town credit (I just thought it was amusing at the time) However if people start doing it now it won’t change anything.
On September 03 2012 09:05 WeeTee wrote: anddd kush and thrawn are here! If you guys were a scum team I'd facepalm
I dream of the day when Kush and Thrawn roll mafia together. The way they act would just be... perfect.
So in short I am ehing and mehing over killing. Very convinced something is odd about cuba mostly convinced about Drazak. Towning WeeTee and everyone else have dropped off the radar.
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers?
Lynching the lurkers who have posted completly nothing is 50-50 could be bored town could be terrified mafia or terrified town you never know. You however are lurking (only one post longer than one line and that post is just statistics) and if you read what I wrote. I explain why you are a better choice. (than kville who I assume you are reffering to{but also not pick a lurker to lynch!})
You are not being decisive (you say lynch the lurkers.) What lurkers? Do you not want to be connected to the lynch? Sounds like scum to me.
You have plenty of time to prove me wrong though. While lynching active members is more 25% chance or whatever (not going to go into the maths) you aren't exactly what I would call active. So in lynching you we ARE lynching a lurker.
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: and its cubu, not cuba
On September 03 2012 05:39 thrawn2112 wrote: As for the active players, I want to see more out of JacobStrangelove. His posts have failed to impress. His biggest contribution to the thread so far is typing up a list with short explanations for his reads on everyone. That is not scumhunting. Anyone can type up a list and include short justifications for early reads. A town player is more focused on actively contributing towards the process of finding scum and that's not what I'm seeing out of Jacob.
Jacob, sonic, and killing are like a triumvirate of nullness. I don't have a good feel for any of them and can't distinguish one from another in my head. They accuse each other, which seems funny to me because they all act alike. But yeah null reads on those three until I get to know them better.
And Cubu responded..
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers?
You may have posted a few times but you have contributed nothing, which makes you a lurker. The only person who is a bigger lurker is kville. We are waiting on a post from him later which he promised and we will see what that looks like.
lol @WeeTee
On September 03 2012 09:05 WeeTee wrote: anddd kush and thrawn are here! If you guys were a scum team I'd facepalm
We would make an epic scumteam. inb4 WeeTee is third scum and his statement was a reverse psychology mindfuck.
So guys we have less than 24 left until night. I think we should all seriously start considering who we are going to lynch, especially since we have a lot of people who probably won't be active at the end of d1. I don't want it to be a last minute decision like xxv.
I want to lynch cubu as my first choice, which is why he currently has my vote. Other people I would be comfortable with lynching at this point are drazak or kville.
On September 03 2012 01:19 drazak wrote: I sleep kind of odd hours, I've been asleep, sorry for not being active. I was one of the first few posts, thus there was almost nothing of substance, the first few posts are almost always all fluffy filler. I don't have any good reads yet, just skepticism. I'll be back in a few hours to give you some better reads. To be honest, we're probably going to end up lynching a townie, and we /shouldn't feel bad/. Lynching a townie seems to almost always happen. While it's most beneficial to lynch mafia (obviously), anyone that talked about doing a no-lynch is out of their gourd, no-lynching doesn't affect the ratio at all, and doesn't even give us a chance at killing mafia. That just means that the mafia have a free night, maybe we get info from who they kill, but it's nothing conclusive.
I'll be back later today to make some better reads, not sure exactly when (N.B. I know I said in a few hours, could be closer to the end of the "day", could be later in the actual day, etc) I'm helping move my dad into his new house.
I'm kind of suspicious of drazak. He says his gonna post in a few hours but its been alot of hours since then and he hasn't posted. And why talk about the no-lynch? You can't no-lynch. There is nothing to discuss about it. And isn't it strange that of all the days, it's the first day of mafia that his dad happens to be moving out. Seems like a false excuse to me.
Alright, just got home, I can take some picture tomorrow if you want, if you need proof that I'm helping my father move. I wasn't sure dates/times until night time saturday EST. Yes, I sleep strange hours, if that makes me scum, that's a pretty bad read. Going to spend some time reading all of your filters, will post more in 30-90 minutes. I kind of wanted to play some PS2 Beta, but not getting lynched is more important .
On September 03 2012 02:19 Stutters695 wrote: Regarding lists: This might be just me, but I don't want lists posted throughout the game. It's an easy wall for scum to hide behind without explaining why they think what they do and without forcing them to ever commit.
Will have individual questions for people in a bit.
On September 02 2012 21:14 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: For transparency, I think it's a good thing to for everyone to keep a list of suspects/non-suspects. This way we can hold people accountable for flip-flopping and actually demand some reasoning behind it. It'll also be easier to spot those key posts when later we'll be wading through tons of pages to do some background checks. Even though it's still early game and lots of information is yet to come, I think we might as well get this habit started now (reasoning in post above):
Townie: thrawn kush
Scum: KillingTime Kreb
You are the one with the lists that I refer to, still this is a null read because list are not a bad idea.
So what's the concensus on list-making? I was the one promoting lists in the first place, I thought it was a good idea. Stutter's point a valid but I feel like it's just as easy, if not easier, to hide behind a wall-of-text. Some wall-of-text posters (I'm looking at you Strangelove), seems post reads even on players he has no reads on. Not necessarily scummy, but it doesn't help us. If you have reads you think are good there's no reason to drown them out by filling your post out with "non-reads". I'll have to admit the list idea didn't pan out the way I had hoped though.
On September 03 2012 02:19 Stutters695 wrote: Regarding lists: This might be just me, but I don't want lists posted throughout the game. It's an easy wall for scum to hide behind without explaining why they think what they do and without forcing them to ever commit.
Will have individual questions for people in a bit.
On September 02 2012 21:14 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: For transparency, I think it's a good thing to for everyone to keep a list of suspects/non-suspects. This way we can hold people accountable for flip-flopping and actually demand some reasoning behind it. It'll also be easier to spot those key posts when later we'll be wading through tons of pages to do some background checks. Even though it's still early game and lots of information is yet to come, I think we might as well get this habit started now (reasoning in post above):
Townie: thrawn kush
Scum: KillingTime Kreb
You are the one with the lists that I refer to, still this is a null read because list are not a bad idea.
So what's the concensus on list-making? I was the one promoting lists in the first place, I thought it was a good idea. Stutter's point a valid but I feel like it's just as easy, if not easier, to hide behind a wall-of-text. Some wall-of-text posters (I'm looking at you Strangelove), seems post reads even on players he has no reads on. Not necessarily scummy, but it doesn't help us. If you have reads you think are good there's no reason to drown them out by filling your post out with "non-reads". I'll have to admit the list idea didn't pan out the way I had hoped though.
Hold on a second first I get accused of being wishy washy then when I change (as the game develops and more information comes out) I get accused of making lists then when I get told that is easy to do I change and I get accused of making walls of text? If I wasn't to write anything I would be accused of lurking... Everyone has a style they can hide behind, why not both. Have lists have walls of texts. (btw this is nowhere near the kind of walls of text I would normaly produce) I do like a little flavour in my posts... Also I did mention non reads incase people asked me about "what do you think of x person" This shouldn't be a reason for an accusation or suspicion. (see second last paragraph)
It seems like I am getting set up for a day two or three lynch. My reasoning behind this is I seem to being baselessly accused in a by the by manner so when they get the opportunity people will remember me as someone suspicious. Also to Kush yeah Sonic I and Killing are actually fairly close in play style, this is probably why we don't trust each other at all.
That said going out to uni will be back in several hours.
I think at this point we need to start some wagons, we need them to start with some time left for EOD to be able to get some reactions and information to work with. More than one, because have 2-3 wagons will give us better opportunities to analyze voting patterns later. I think the best strategy is to wagon suspect lurkers to force reactions/info and adjust accordingly. I'm sure there are at least one scum among the more active posters but we can deal with active posters later. My take on the lurkers (Kville, Cubu, drazark, stutters, weetee):
Kville Essentially hasn't posted anything. This is definitely suspect, but IF he is a townie who is just really busy starting a wagon won't force any reactions and thus he's not a good target for a wagon right now.
Cubu: The weird spazz of this thread. A solid non-contributor. I tend to give the spazzes the benefit of the doubt. Let's look at his short posting history (highlighting points of interest):
On September 02 2012 11:02 Cubu wrote: But how do you lynch that which you cannot see?
On September 02 2012 11:04 Cubu wrote: And it might be that they are busy doing something offline (school, work etc) so it's hard to judge whether they are lurking or just afk.
On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote: I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.
3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.
So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0.
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers?
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: and its cubu, not cuba
This is a really bad defense on his part. His posts doesn't make any sense. He suspects scum to have a plan of lurking, while being a lurker himself, and he doesn't know if there's 3 or 4 scum in the game. But the thing is, when looking at his posting history, he has to be on some weird ass level for him to be scum. Let's apply occram's razor, newbie scum don't level. As I said before, lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational (see: stutters). He comes across more as a confused townie to me.
drazark: Contributes little to nothing. Claims to have little time to post due to helping his father to move. I don't think making up excuses like that is something scum would do to avoid posting. They already tend to start out the game feeling kind of guilty, spending the first entire day building up an unnecessary lie isn't very scum-like. Not a strong read either direction, he just recently posted and hopefully he can contribute more shortly.
Stutters: Only made one post in this thread. In it he adds little in terms of analysis and rationalizes that a low post count doesn't have to be scummy by using an old thread as "alibi", which in itself is weak argumentation. Along with his non-contribution I think he makes a good lynching candidate.
WeeTee: Not willing to let him off the hook after making a fluffy intro post and then a list of suspects mostly re-hashing old information/reads from earlier in the thread. A decent candidate for lynching, but since he's shown signs of being willing to contribute more, he might be better to reevaluate later.
I personally favor a ##vote stutters wagon. I don't mind a cubu or weetee wagon to see how they react. Drazark would be fourth.
On September 03 2012 14:42 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 03 2012 02:19 Stutters695 wrote: Regarding lists: This might be just me, but I don't want lists posted throughout the game. It's an easy wall for scum to hide behind without explaining why they think what they do and without forcing them to ever commit.
Will have individual questions for people in a bit.
On September 02 2012 21:14 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: For transparency, I think it's a good thing to for everyone to keep a list of suspects/non-suspects. This way we can hold people accountable for flip-flopping and actually demand some reasoning behind it. It'll also be easier to spot those key posts when later we'll be wading through tons of pages to do some background checks. Even though it's still early game and lots of information is yet to come, I think we might as well get this habit started now (reasoning in post above):
Townie: thrawn kush
Scum: KillingTime Kreb
You are the one with the lists that I refer to, still this is a null read because list are not a bad idea.
So what's the concensus on list-making? I was the one promoting lists in the first place, I thought it was a good idea. Stutter's point a valid but I feel like it's just as easy, if not easier, to hide behind a wall-of-text. Some wall-of-text posters (I'm looking at you Strangelove), seems post reads even on players he has no reads on. Not necessarily scummy, but it doesn't help us. If you have reads you think are good there's no reason to drown them out by filling your post out with "non-reads". I'll have to admit the list idea didn't pan out the way I had hoped though.
Hold on a second first I get accused of being wishy washy then when I change (as the game develops and more information comes out) I get accused of making lists then when I get told that is easy to do I change and I get accused of making walls of text? If I wasn't to write anything I would be accused of lurking... Everyone has a style they can hide behind, why not both. Have lists have walls of texts. (btw this is nowhere near the kind of walls of text I would normaly produce) I do like a little flavour in my posts... Also I did mention non reads incase people asked me about "what do you think of x person" This shouldn't be a reason for an accusation or suspicion. (see second last paragraph)
It seems like I am getting set up for a day two or three lynch. My reasoning behind this is I seem to being baselessly accused in a by the by manner so when they get the opportunity people will remember me as someone suspicious. Also to Kush yeah Sonic I and Killing are actually fairly close in play style, this is probably why we don't trust each other at all.
That said going out to uni will be back in several hours.
I still think you're wishy washy. Like I said, I don't think your posts are totally lacking content, I just think you're mixing in too much crap to make them easy to follow. I think it's your way of writing it's your way of writing. If someone specifically ask you for a read on someone (which isn't a very good question to begin with), go ahead and answer. Otherwise just focus on your valuable reads and don't drown them out.
I totally agree we have a similar playstyle. We're both starting from scratch and adjust probabilities accordingly (as a semi-pro poker player that approach is what comes natural to me). That's why I've been less suspect of you than a lot of others (you haven't seen me include you on any lists). The fact that KillingTime's post hasn't stood out to me lately makes me belive he might be in that same category. I think Kush is a bit more on the spazzy side.
Good morning all - ATM the player who I am most suspicious of is the one who has attempted to make a contribution to the thread but did so with a post that gave us no opinions or information that we didn't already have. I want to see if he is capable of at least trying to make posts that are interesting/valuable or if he is scum and just trying to skirt around beeing seen as a "lurker". I don't want the to be any trains started without one of them being Him because his style suggests so far that he might just come back and jump on one at the back.
On September 03 2012 16:21 KillingTime wrote: Good morning all - ATM the player who I am most suspicious of is the one who has attempted to make a contribution to the thread but did so with a post that gave us no opinions or information that we didn't already have. I want to see if he is capable of at least trying to make posts that are interesting/valuable or if he is scum and just trying to skirt around beeing seen as a "lurker". I don't want the to be any trains started without one of them being Him because his style suggests so far that he might just come back and jump on one at the back.
##Vote WeeTee
Killingtime to me it seems like you just woke up from your slumber and read Sonic's post and decided there il go with that. How can you accuse me of not being interesting and link that to Vote worthy. Sonics earlier post about me read: "Not willing to let him off the hook after making a fluffy intro post and then a list of suspects mostly re-hashing old information/reads from earlier in the thread. A decent candidate for lynching, but since he's shown signs of being willing to contribute more, he might be better to reevaluate later."
Firstly I have to say that I made my reads on town and shed what experience I had about players and their alignments. To me this seems like something I should be doing. If you are saying that a town read is not valuable then please contribute your criticisms against town reads more precisely because I can't tell why you are voting me accept for this reason. In my opinion my previous post is succinct of my town reads and its what I wanted to say which should be valued by everyone as a whole. I wont let myself be slandered by those who don't read my posts well enough.
Ok, I'm just going to go through everyone as I read their filter, there should be 11 so I'll number them.
In no particular order, besides the order I middle clicked to open their filters.
KillingTime Seems logical, has a good activity level, nothing seems scummy here, while he may have been afk for some time, so was I, it isn't necessarily scummy, just means we have lives. I think he's clean for now.
kushm4sta Seems to have good reads, not sure why he's calling out scumteams already, two or three people agreeing is likely not a scum team on D1, likely just people without reads bandwagoning a little. Doesn't seem obviously scumlike, but some of his accusations seem a little too strong, as if he's trying to throw accusation off himself, but could just be D1 jitters/trying to get conversation started.
WeeTee Fairly low post count, this isn't a big issue as my post count is low as well, but his post didn't have many original ideas, and he ignored some players in his analysis. This in and of itself is not particularly scummy, just doesn't help the town as much as it would seem. For now, he's neutral to me, not scum or particularly town-y.
thrawn2112 Seems to be very active, haven't seen him in other games, so I don't know if this is his normal activity level or if he's being nervous and posting a lot to cover it. The constant comments about KotH are kind of annoying, and support the nervousness read. Might be a blue role, or mafia, he reads slightly on the scummy side, but not my first choice to lynch on D1.
Xatalos Fairly logical player, willing to make reads, I like how he points out what he agrees with when he quotes posts. Seems very analytical. Willing to bet for now that he's town. Doesn't seem to be bandwagoning, which is very good for his town case, only issue is if he is just trying to mislead, for now, strong town read.
Kville Not active, at all. He seems very active in NMIII or whatever the normal mini mafia he's in right now is. Willing to bet he's scum or useless for town. He has my vote at the minute.
Cubu Seems to have fairly fluffy posts, a bad defense of himself by deflecting from himself to lurkers. Maybe i'm a little tilted because of him calling me out for being a lurker, but I must have missed the post where someone pointed out in the rules that we can't no-lynch, I'm used to games where it's a possibility, even if it's a bad idea. I felt the need to show the logic for why no lynch is bad. He's my #2 scum read at the moment, after kville.
Kreb Seems to be fairly analytical, likes to look at the statistics. I'm getting a town read based off his wording, but I also think that the statistics could be a shield for any scumlike behavior. We'll see how his later posts go, but for now I'm willing to bet he's town.
Stutters695 Only has one post, and it was regarding our lurker policy. He said he would have questions for us later, but I guess not? Kind of a scummy read, but he might just be afk. He hasn't had fluff though, which puts him after Cubu on my potential scumlist. Hopefully he posts more.
JacobStrangelove Seems to be very active, most of his posts seem to be pro-town. I can't find anything wrong with him (especially because he defended me for sleeping weird hours ). For now he's a town read, would need to see more posts from him before I can decide something else.
Sonic Death Monkey So, logical player, claims to be semi-pro poker player. Seems to hav egood reads, doesn't jump to conclusions. Seems like a strong player for late game, hope he's town. Again, for now he seems like town, need more posts to get a read for the other direction.
I hope the format is ok, wanted to try something out with a fair amount of bbcode. I think the only safe vote for now is for kville, as he has contributed nothing. We don't have enough to know if someone else is contributing misinformation or whatnot. Hopefully this sort of analysis is fine, I'll try to make a post like this every day that I'm alive.
I'd also like to apologize that it took so damn long, was watching the end of TI2 and then helping some people out, check my twitter if you don't believe me. (@drazak168).
[green]Are we allowed to reference people's activity on TL outside of the game (It wasn't allowed in XXIV is why I'm asking.)?
@Sonic Death Monkey It wasn't an alibi. It was a direct example of a low post count not being immediately a scumtell. I should have been more clear about it though. A low post count doesn't indicate scum or innocence. It should warrant heavy scrutiny to determine the motives behind their posts. Especially if it comes down to a debate between lurkers.
Your post is exactly what I'm taking about with lists. If I was a scum I wouldn't put myself in a position to be lynched by posting once or twice than bouncing for a day when you guys make it so easy to hide without committing to anything. All I'd have to do is post a list of everyone and sheep on townish people and say well he hasn't posted a lot so I'm not sure but W,X,Y,Z are scummy for not posting very often and I'd be covered through a D1 lynch without having to explain anything.
That said Drazak's list has one very interesting point.
On September 03 2012 16:45 drazak wrote: [*]Kville Not active, at all. He seems very active in NMIII or whatever the normal mini mafia he's in right now is. Willing to bet he's scum or useless for town. He has my vote at the minute. .
This needs to be explained by Kville. There is no excuse for not posting while on TL considering there was a reminder before the game started.
On September 03 2012 17:11 Stutters695 wrote: [green]Are we allowed to reference people's activity on TL outside of the game (It wasn't allowed in XXIV is why I'm asking.)?
@Sonic Death Monkey It wasn't an alibi. It was a direct example of a low post count not being immediately a scumtell. I should have been more clear about it though. A low post count doesn't indicate scum or innocence. It should warrant heavy scrutiny to determine the motives behind their posts. Especially if it comes down to a debate between lurkers.
Your post is exactly what I'm taking about with lists. If I was a scum I wouldn't put myself in a position to be lynched by posting once or twice than bouncing for a day when you guys make it so easy to hide without committing to anything. All I'd have to do is post a list of everyone and sheep on townish people and say well he hasn't posted a lot so I'm not sure but W,X,Y,Z are scummy for not posting very often and I'd be covered through a D1 lynch without having to explain anything.
That's both fair points. I don't see lists as inherently bad though, we just need to evaluate the reasoning posters give for their lists (lists or no lists seems like a non-issue as long as we do our job).
I do agree low post counts don't need to be incriminating, but like I said I found your reference to another thread as kind of weak argumentation. This post helps your first post to make more sense though, so my scum alert is waning. It'd still need nice if you were able to contribute more or else you come off as neutral at best, ducking at worst.
I'm at uni atm and won't be able to contribute much for another 7-8 hours. I'm liking the development with lurkers starting to contribute more, should give us better information for the lynch.
Im having a real hard time trying to figure out Cubu. His oneliners makes no sense. And first he defends himself by referring back to the plan of lynching lurkers (and doesnt seem to realize that he mostly were included in that group of players himself by many others). Then he posts a very weak case on drazak, who was already one of the most talked about potential lynch targets. Overall his defense is really bad. As sonic said, definitely a possible confused townie, but I disagree with
lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational
. Confused mafia not knowing how to get stop the bandwagon is just as good of a possibility. He seems to be the most "scared" of getting lynched by turning left and right in his defence, and that is more of a mafia-sign to me.
Drazak, Weetee and Stutters started posting. None of them really convincingly (drazak maybe more than the rest). But then again, I'd have 8 or 10 voting candidates should I vote on people who hasnt convinced me of being townish.
Kville kinda still has a chance to redeem himself.
Dont know if I should just cast my vote and change it later if needed or just wait until later. I guess I'll cast it for now and see what happens. So Im voting for Cubu in the voting thread.
On September 03 2012 17:11 Stutters695 wrote: [green]Are we allowed to reference people's activity on TL outside of the game (It wasn't allowed in XXIV is why I'm asking.)?
@Sonic Death Monkey It wasn't an alibi. It was a direct example of a low post count not being immediately a scumtell. I should have been more clear about it though. A low post count doesn't indicate scum or innocence. It should warrant heavy scrutiny to determine the motives behind their posts. Especially if it comes down to a debate between lurkers.
Your post is exactly what I'm taking about with lists. If I was a scum I wouldn't put myself in a position to be lynched by posting once or twice than bouncing for a day when you guys make it so easy to hide without committing to anything. All I'd have to do is post a list of everyone and sheep on townish people and say well he hasn't posted a lot so I'm not sure but W,X,Y,Z are scummy for not posting very often and I'd be covered through a D1 lynch without having to explain anything.
That's both fair points. I don't see lists as inherently bad though, we just need to evaluate the reasoning posters give for their lists (lists or no lists seems like a non-issue as long as we do our job).
Personally I kinda like lists because they kinda "forces" out a lot of information. That means you can go back later in the game to try and get clues and try to see patterns. Its likely harder for a mafia to hide and be deceptive if he has to constantly update his thoughts and follow through with his reasonings. If you just post "well I kinda think A and B seems scummy and C seems a bit towny" you revealed much less information and as such dont need to back up as much information later.
That said, it obviously doesnt have to be presented in a list format as long as you present the same amount of information. Its more that lists kinda force information out on the board.
So it seems like the consensus is to lynch either cubu or kville. Anyone not feel this way? Even if they aren't mafia they are solid policy lynches. Now the question is which one. Kville is the bigger lurker, but I think there is a higher possibility for cubu to actually be mafia. Honestly cubu probably isn't mafia either, just because I think mafia would put more effort into their posts. Lynching one of these guys is better than lynching someone who is active though. So my vote is still on cubu.
On September 03 2012 18:47 kushm4sta wrote: So it seems like the consensus is to lynch either cubu or kville. Anyone not feel this way? Even if they aren't mafia they are solid policy lynches. Now the question is which one. Kville is the bigger lurker, but I think there is a higher possibility for cubu to actually be mafia. Honestly cubu probably isn't mafia either, just because I think mafia would put more effort into their posts. Lynching one of these guys is better than lynching someone who is active though. So my vote is still on cubu.
Dont get ahead of things really. Still votes on other players, and my vote isnt final either. I'll have to figure out if I prefer voting early (and switching later if needed) or just voting late. But went with the early vote this time.
In response to all this conversation about lists: I prefer more directed single accusations than lightly accusing a bunch of people at once. If a bunch of people really put the heat on someone and threaten him with a lynch, then shit starts to come out. But if you accuse someone with a few sentences, along with the 5 other people you are accusing, then the accused doesn't even really have to respond. Casting your net to wide is the metaphor. Yes list making gives you a lot of insight into what people are thinking, but this is a double edged sword. If I have a slight suspicion of someone, I don't necessarily want to let them know that because that will only make them more careful.
On September 03 2012 19:01 kushm4sta wrote: In response to all this conversation about lists: I prefer more directed single accusations than lightly accusing a bunch of people at once. If a bunch of people really put the heat on someone and threaten him with a lynch, then shit starts to come out. But if you accuse someone with a few sentences, along with the 5 other people you are accusing, then the accused doesn't even really have to respond. Casting your net to wide is the metaphor. Yes list making gives you a lot of insight into what people are thinking, but this is a double edged sword. If I have a slight suspicion of someone, I don't necessarily want to let them know that because that will only make them more careful.
Yeah I don't like the lists. They cause town's focus to be too widespread which limits progress. If you have a read on somebody, and it's a read worth sharing, then it should take more than a couple sentences to justify. Making lists isn't scumhunting, it's fluff. You should be spending your time making accusations and questioning people instead of spitting out the status quo on each player.
On September 03 2012 18:47 kushm4sta wrote: So it seems like the consensus is to lynch either cubu or kville. Anyone not feel this way? Even if they aren't mafia they are solid policy lynches. Now the question is which one. Kville is the bigger lurker, but I think there is a higher possibility for cubu to actually be mafia. Honestly cubu probably isn't mafia either, just because I think mafia would put more effort into their posts. Lynching one of these guys is better than lynching someone who is active though. So my vote is still on cubu.
No need to limit ourselves this early. Like I said before there are other decent option and we don't want too many to feel safe this early. If scum feel safe they're more likely to stay away from the thread and we gain no info.
On September 03 2012 19:01 kushm4sta wrote: In response to all this conversation about lists: I prefer more directed single accusations than lightly accusing a bunch of people at once. If a bunch of people really put the heat on someone and threaten him with a lynch, then shit starts to come out. But if you accuse someone with a few sentences, along with the 5 other people you are accusing, then the accused doesn't even really have to respond. Casting your net to wide is the metaphor. Yes list making gives you a lot of insight into what people are thinking, but this is a double edged sword. If I have a slight suspicion of someone, I don't necessarily want to let them know that because that will only make them more careful.
Now I feel kind of sorry I made this a big deal, I didn't mean to. Lists or no lists doesn't matter much as long as we do our job and evaluate the reasoning posters provide. Right now I feel like the "list discussion" is just clogging up the thread and prevents more productive discussion so this will be my last comment on the list topic.
On September 03 2012 19:01 kushm4sta wrote: In response to all this conversation about lists: I prefer more directed single accusations than lightly accusing a bunch of people at once. If a bunch of people really put the heat on someone and threaten him with a lynch, then shit starts to come out. But if you accuse someone with a few sentences, along with the 5 other people you are accusing, then the accused doesn't even really have to respond. Casting your net to wide is the metaphor. Yes list making gives you a lot of insight into what people are thinking, but this is a double edged sword. If I have a slight suspicion of someone, I don't necessarily want to let them know that because that will only make them more careful.
Yeah I don't like the lists. They cause town's focus to be too widespread which limits progress. If you have a read on somebody, and it's a read worth sharing, then it should take more than a couple sentences to justify. Making lists isn't scumhunting, it's fluff. You should be spending your time making accusations and questioning people instead of spitting out the status quo on each player.
Gonna get my vote in next post
Gah, I can't resist... this will be the last one! I agree making a list including everyone in the game usually ends with fluff and they are pretty worthless. Lists should only include a few of the most solid and/or relevant reads + reasonings.
Now, I'm done. Everyone, lists or no lists, provide your reads clearly and concisely. Don't ramble about players you don't have any reads on.
Voting for drazak. His first and 2nd post came within 2 hours after the game started, so we know that he was here reading the thread at that time and knew that the game had started. His next post comes a little over 12 hours after his 2nd at which point there has been plenty of discussion but all drazak talks about is lynch policy. The post where he finally gives reads comes in almost a day and a half after the game started. Why would it take anyone that long to give a read? And in that post which gives the most insight into his throught process, all he does is list each player and write a couple short sentences about each. What I said earlier about lists:
On September 03 2012 05:39 thrawn2112 wrote:I'm not going to hold it against any of you that make them unless that's the extent of your contribution to the thread.
In summary: He lurks throughout the entire game and only shares reads near the end of D1. Those reads are short and insubstantial and are not intended to spark further conversation. He never questions anyone or makes direct accusations. He's trying to blend in.
If sleeping and being afk is lurking, sure, I was reading 30-40 posts at a time, so when I came back my first post (about policy) was becasue it was one of the first things I read. It took 2 hours to read everyones filter, I posted when I started working on it, and watched the end of the international. I wanted to have a fresh perspective instead of what I remembered from reading a lot of posts at once, so I read filters Not sure if you understand human sleeping patterns but I've been fairly active when I'm here, I feel like that is pretty bad reasoning, if I was mafia I'd simply not give reads, or give poorly thought out reads (or atleast, in my experience).
EBWOP, If I was just trying to blend it, I would have bandwagoned on someone, for the most part people were ignoring kville, I'm the first vote on him, and the first one to directly accuse him. I find your reasoning flawed thrawn.
Voting for drazak. His first and 2nd post came within 2 hours after the game started, so we know that he was here reading the thread at that time and knew that the game had started. His next post comes a little over 12 hours after his 2nd at which point there has been plenty of discussion but all drazak talks about is lynch policy. The post where he finally gives reads comes in almost a day and a half after the game started. Why would it take anyone that long to give a read? And in that post which gives the most insight into his throught process, all he does is list each player and write a couple short sentences about each. What I said earlier about lists:
On September 03 2012 05:39 thrawn2112 wrote:I'm not going to hold it against any of you that make them unless that's the extent of your contribution to the thread.
In summary: He lurks throughout the entire game and only shares reads near the end of D1. Those reads are short and insubstantial and are not intended to spark further conversation. He never questions anyone or makes direct accusations. He's trying to blend in.
The problem I see is that there are a lot of other people with posts equally as insubstantial or worse. At least drazak has given reasons for his inactivity and there is the promise of more activity in the future. Assume drazak and kville and cubu are town. Which townie would you rather have day 2? For me that's hands down drazak, because he has contributed way more than those other two. It will be easier to determine later if he is scum because he has content to analyze.
On September 03 2012 18:47 kushm4sta wrote: So it seems like the consensus is to lynch either cubu or kville. Anyone not feel this way? Even if they aren't mafia they are solid policy lynches. Now the question is which one. Kville is the bigger lurker, but I think there is a higher possibility for cubu to actually be mafia. Honestly cubu probably isn't mafia either, just because I think mafia would put more effort into their posts. Lynching one of these guys is better than lynching someone who is active though. So my vote is still on cubu.
No need to limit ourselves this early. Like I said before there are other decent option and we don't want too many to feel safe this early. If scum feel safe they're more likely to stay away from the thread and we gain no info.
I think you make a good point sonic, except this isn't really early. Lynch happens in less than 14 hours, and there's no way everyone is going to be around right before lynch time. I know I'm probably going to be sleeping. The reason I want people to say who they are going to vote for is because I really don't want a no lynch. I brought up the idea of a no lynch possibility, but that's because in the last game I was in we had no real lurkers. In this game there are a lot of people who deserve to be lynched. So, for instance, I would change my vote to drazak in a second to prevent a no lynch even though I think he is not our best option.
Well, if you want to prevent a no-lynch, vote kville, have you looked at his filter? Have you seen his previous activity in other mafias? Something seems fishy there and if he doesn't speak up there is absolutely no reason not to lynch him.
On September 03 2012 20:27 drazak wrote: Well, if you want to prevent a no-lynch, vote kville, have you looked at his filter? Have you seen his previous activity in other mafias? Something seems fishy there and if he doesn't speak up there is absolutely no reason not to lynch him.
A) There will be no no-lynch. B) Even supposing there would. Heres an argument: If you want to prevent a no-lynch, vote drazak. See what I did there?
I wasnt really considering voting on you, but your reaction to thrawns accusation are not something thats in your favor. Questioning his understanding of sleeping patterns (wut?), the ever so common, "if I'd had been mafia I'd have done this to fool you" (you know there tens of ways of blending in, and theres no "this is what you should do as mafia, as then everyone would do it and be instantly reveald). Then you follow it up with a senseless claim that to prevent a no-lynch you have to vote Kville (wut #2).
I'm still leaning towards Cubu myself, but this had me thinking really.
I only mention a no-lynch in direct reply to what kushm4sta said, reread his post. Sorry if I'm being defensive, not sure how that's a senseless claim considering what kushm4sta said. Everything I've said has made me infinitely more useful on D2 compared to someone like kville, I have a lot to analyze, and you'll have more info. lynch me now and your future lynches get harder.
Voting for drazak. His first and 2nd post came within 2 hours after the game started, so we know that he was here reading the thread at that time and knew that the game had started. His next post comes a little over 12 hours after his 2nd at which point there has been plenty of discussion but all drazak talks about is lynch policy. The post where he finally gives reads comes in almost a day and a half after the game started. Why would it take anyone that long to give a read? And in that post which gives the most insight into his throught process, all he does is list each player and write a couple short sentences about each. What I said earlier about lists:
On September 03 2012 05:39 thrawn2112 wrote:I'm not going to hold it against any of you that make them unless that's the extent of your contribution to the thread.
In summary: He lurks throughout the entire game and only shares reads near the end of D1. Those reads are short and insubstantial and are not intended to spark further conversation. He never questions anyone or makes direct accusations. He's trying to blend in.
The problem I see is that there are a lot of other people with posts equally as insubstantial or worse. At least drazak has given reasons for his inactivity and there is the promise of more activity in the future. Assume drazak and kville and cubu are town. Which townie would you rather have day 2? For me that's hands down drazak, because he has contributed way more than those other two. It will be easier to determine later if he is scum because he has content to analyze.
He may have contributed more in terms of total word count but their effective participation levels have been about the same. I am suspicious of drazak because his play looks like he is trying to appear somewhat active, but the 1st half of D1 he didn't talk about anything useful and D2 he made that list which contributed almost nothing to the thread... and I think his vote on kville is him trying to pick the easiest and safest target. In regards to people giving reasons for inactivity, that's not something I can confirm or deny so I mostly ignore it.
On September 03 2012 20:27 drazak wrote: Well, if you want to prevent a no-lynch, vote kville, have you looked at his filter? Have you seen his previous activity in other mafias? Something seems fishy there and if he doesn't speak up there is absolutely no reason not to lynch him.
Actually the reason why I'm hesitant to consider voting kville is because I find it hard to believe that scum would only post once. He is an acceptable lynch candidate simply because we won't have lost anything at all worth keeping, but I don't have a scum read on him so that's why he's not my first vote.
On September 03 2012 19:56 drazak wrote:I feel like that is pretty bad reasoning, if I was mafia I'd simply not give reads, or give poorly thought out reads (or atleast, in my experience).
Actually that is what I think you've been doing. Not giving reads until extremely late and then giving poorly thought out reads. By 'poorly thought out' I'm talking about your list of short sentences about each player. As for your vote on kville I do give you some possible town credit for taking the initiative there, but it could also be scum motives trying to vote for an easy target. Kville is literally the easiest person to vote for because of him having only 1 post. So although you were the first to vote, it was anything but a ballsy move.
Kville if you don't get lynched D1 and continue your posting behavior I don't think it's likely that you'll last past D2. What say you?
Drazak, your vote is on a player who has only 1 post. I can see what the town motivations for that would be, but that still leaves you at a point where you aren't really scumhunting and you're just picking an easy target. What is your top scumread and why? (other than kville of course) Please be thorough.
My best read is cubu. He's tried to throw suspiscion, he stopped posting when he had nobody to lay thin accusations on. Cubu has posted only with low content, low value posts, he hasn't had any real reads other than discussing statistics and how afk I was. I think Cubu isn't a great D1 lynch though, which is why he doesn't currently have my vote, if he continues to have such low content posts tomorrow, he will certainly have my vote. Cubu is someone we can try to analyze tomorrow and figure out if he really is mafia, we can't analyze kville, and if we wait to lynch kville it's not going to get better, we don't even have a baseline for him.
To that point, I'm someone you can analyze D2, you have several posts by me, with fairly decent content. Even if kville isn't mafia, he isn't helping anyone. In addition, I felt that going for cubu would just be bandwagoning at this point, which as town doesn't help me at all, espescially considering I do have my own unique thoughts, which I have shared with everyone.
Yeah, I am back. Tired but back. I will likely vote before bed as I am unlikely to be awake. So lists or no lists xD (not going to start that again as sonic said not a big deal) At the moment all the focus is on Kville Drazak and Cubu. So a list of three is appropriate.
Kville I find hard to believe would be mafia. Posting twice? Could be a great bluff strategy but honestly I think he got into the game and thought. Ahh who cares. That said he isn’t useful in the game unlike Drazak. Although apparently his previous activity was high in other mafias. I haven’t got time to check that and it was coming from Drazak but interesting to consider.
Drazak: I maybe biased towards the one person who thinks I am town but he seems more like a mildly scared town (as opposed to a really scared mafia see Cubu) Most of it is vibe based however as he said if we lynch him we have less to go on than if we don’t. So leaving him in the game at least temporarily is more useful So I would vote (and probably will before bed unless a good argument comes up) Cubu first.
Cubu: Need I say more? Could be a scared town but he reacted so horribly. Most likely an inexperienced mafia.
Oh and about WeeTee. I would be hesitant to lynch him because his game activity last game was similar and he got lynched as town.
So I will probably vote Cubu, Kville, Drazak. Unless one of the others or cubu comes in with a perfect argument I don’t see this changing much.
On September 03 2012 21:24 drazak wrote: My best read is cubu. He's tried to throw suspiscion, he stopped posting when he had nobody to lay thin accusations on. Cubu has posted only with low content, low value posts, he hasn't had any real reads other than discussing statistics and how afk I was. I think Cubu isn't a great D1 lynch though, which is why he doesn't currently have my vote, if he continues to have such low content posts tomorrow, he will certainly have my vote. Cubu is someone we can try to analyze tomorrow and figure out if he really is mafia, we can't analyze kville, and if we wait to lynch kville it's not going to get better, we don't even have a baseline for him.
To that point, I'm someone you can analyze D2, you have several posts by me, with fairly decent content. Even if kville isn't mafia, he isn't helping anyone. In addition, I felt that going for cubu would just be bandwagoning at this point, which as town doesn't help me at all, espescially considering I do have my own unique thoughts, which I have shared with everyone.
This is a great point however. At least after somebody gets lynched we will have a lot to work with. But I did think the sudden change was a bit much but it was explained in a resonable manner.
As much as i would like to vote mafia, just this once i would like vote off kville, because it's as if he isn't here. I mean, just staying silent goes against the spirit of the game, imo. I'll post more tomorrow (its almost midnight here).
Vote count is in the other thread I think. But Cubu or kville? Both of the at risk voted kville most likely as a "I want to survive" tactic. But also reasoning behind it.
Also what about stutters? I forgot him, in what ever case the more information argument comes in. Stutters as provided something more than both. So more likely to have more to work with day two. I'll watch a movie and be back, need time to think about it.
Er, I don't think I voted him as an "I want to survive" tactic, I voted kville before I was ever accused, if you look at the order of posts/timestamps.
I kind of feel that a kville lynch would be similar to a kush lynch. We seem to agree that for a mafia to go out and make the d1 posts that kush did would be very gambley/spaz mafia play. Well, the same thing surely applies to Kville - I don't like the fact he is lurking like a submarine - but at this point, given how every active player has repeatedly stressed that they want town to be posting - the total refusal of kville to do that kind of makes me think there are better lynch targets (atleast for d1, d2 is a different story and kville is certainly going to need a good explanation and good d2 play if he does survive).
On a percentage basis I think it is more likely that cuba or weetee or stutters (who never asked those "questions" he was promising) or drazak are scum who have realised their mistake and are trying to cover for it - rather than kville who is being such a blatant lurk.
Weetee says that "In my opinion my previous post is succinct of my town reads and its what I wanted to say which should be valued by everyone as a whole"
My point was that I did not think your town reads added much to the thread, partly because I am very sceptical of "meta" reads at this point given that we all have 3 or less games. I could persuaded to change my vote off you given that others have not agreed with me, but to do so I do need to hear from you not about who you think is town - but who you think is scum!
I find it hard to believe that kville would actually be Mafia. Most of the time Mafia are semi-lurkers with fluffy and careful posts, but kville has done literally nothing so far. It's an extreme risk for Mafia, especially since the overall atmosphere is so anti-lurker. We would lose nothing of value by lynching him, but more likely we'd just hit town and proceed to Day 2 with no new information.
I also don't think drazak is Mafia. The typical reaction for pressured Mafia is to get angry, aggressive or desperate, but in my eyes, he has tried to be genuinely helpful - giving away a lot of unnecessary information in case he actually was Mafia. The somewhat frustrated tone in his posts also points more to town than Mafia.
Sonic Death Monkey and Kreb looked pretty suspicious based on their first (really fluffy) posts, but their later posts have been much better. I'm willing to wait and see some more from them before I can make a judgement.
The ones I'm willing to lynch right now are Cubu, WeeTee and Stutters695. Cubu has posted only fluff, a slight suspicion of drazak and several suggestions to lynch a lurker. All very easy and careful things to say - things that Mafia would like to say in order to blend in and avoid unnecessary attention. WeeTee's first post is pure fluff and the next one is pretty wishy-washy and non-committing. The filter of Stutters695 is full of fluff and non-committing stances.
I'm in bit of a hurry already, so I'm going to vote for Cubu. I might be able to come back online a bit later, but not anymore closer to the deadline :/
On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote: I kind of feel that a kville lynch would be similar to a kush lynch. We seem to agree that for a mafia to go out and make the d1 posts that kush did would be very gambley/spaz mafia play. Well, the same thing surely applies to Kville - I don't like the fact he is lurking like a submarine - but at this point, given how every active player has repeatedly stressed that they want town to be posting - the total refusal of kville to do that kind of makes me think there are better lynch targets (atleast for d1, d2 is a different story and kville is certainly going to need a good explanation and good d2 play if he does survive).
I have similar feelings about a kville lynch:
On September 03 2012 20:54 thrawn2112 wrote:Actually the reason why I'm hesitant to consider voting kville is because I find it hard to believe that scum would only post once. He is an acceptable lynch candidate simply because we won't have lost anything at all worth keeping, but I don't have a scum read on him so that's why he's not my first vote.
Also according to the replacement thread the host has asked for a replacement for this game, so I think that kville is just a town player who doesn't care and wants out.
I'm going to unvote drazak because I'd rather lynch someone more lurky, and because he's done a better job at contributing than he did at the start of the game. Here are my thoughts on the proposed lurker lynch candidates:
Cubu: Has expressed suspicion of drazak, and said he wants to lynch kville. I consider his vote for kville a bad idea, but he has at least given scumreads. Earlier someone said that Cubu's posting looks like that of a spazzy townie, which I agree with.
WeeTee/Stutters: I'm putting these two together because they are the lurkiest except for kville. WeeTee hasn't offered any scum reads at all, nor has he questioned anyone on anything. Stutters' only contribution towards scumhunting was his comment on kville's strange behavior. Stutters's scumhunting efforts are close enough to none I might as well call it none. Between the two of them I think WeeTee has provided greater insight into his thoughts. Stutters hasn't even obliged us with his town reads, all he's done is talk about policy and his thoughts on lists.
I want to lynch WeeTee or Stutters. Other than kville (who I'm not going to vote for because of the earlier reasons I gave) they are the lurkiest players. I can see WeeTee being town because his town meta during XXV was exactly how he's playing now, so I'm going to vote for stutters because of my WeeTee meta read and because stutters has shared less thoughts/reads out of the two.
@thrawn Let me just say that was a very nice catch on kville getting replaced. Very sharp. We certainly shouldn't vote for him now. Drazak and Cuba should change their votes. I think the replacement issue makes him just a null read.
So the drazak didn't work out for you? Now you aim your sights at Stutters. Stutters over Cuba makes ZERO sense to me. He is not the ideal townie, but if you compare his filter to Cuba's, the difference is night and day. As town Stutters appears to be much more helpful, writing in depth and coherently. You are right he has offered no scum read yet. However he still has 8 hours and as he explained he is not a very active poster. On the other hand look at cuba's "scum read." It's more like a defense: you can't lynch him for lurking because kville is lurking way harder. And then he also accuses drazak...hmm that's interesting..but I'll get to that next post.
On September 03 2012 14:01 Cubu wrote: I'm kind of suspicious of drazak. He says his gonna post in a few hours but its been alot of hours since then and he hasn't posted. And why talk about the no-lynch? You can't no-lynch. There is nothing to discuss about it. And isn't it strange that of all the days, it's the first day of mafia that his dad happens to be moving out. Seems like a false excuse to me.
Anyway his scumread of drazak is based on calling him out for lurker policy fluff, which is the same reason I suspected cuba in the first place. So his "scrumread," which apparently proves his innocence in your mind, is hypocritical, unfocused, and lacking of content.
When you first accused drazak right after I accused cuba, you said
On September 03 2012 08:44 thrawn2112 wrote: In regards to your vote... I think cubu is a good pick, but I'm also considering drazak for the same reasons I'm assuming you selected cubu.
You weren't even mentioning stutters as a candidate back then, and nothing regarding him has changed. You said cuba was a good pick, so what happened??
On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote: On a percentage basis I think it is more likely that cuba or weetee or stutters (who never asked those "questions" he was promising) or drazak are scum who have realised their mistake and are trying to cover for it - rather than kville who is being such a blatant lurk.
On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote: I kind of feel that a kville lynch would be similar to a kush lynch. We seem to agree that for a mafia to go out and make the d1 posts that kush did would be very gambley/spaz mafia play. Well, the same thing surely applies to Kville - I don't like the fact he is lurking like a submarine - but at this point, given how every active player has repeatedly stressed that they want town to be posting - the total refusal of kville to do that kind of makes me think there are better lynch targets (atleast for d1, d2 is a different story and kville is certainly going to need a good explanation and good d2 play if he does survive).
On September 03 2012 20:54 thrawn2112 wrote:Actually the reason why I'm hesitant to consider voting kville is because I find it hard to believe that scum would only post once. He is an acceptable lynch candidate simply because we won't have lost anything at all worth keeping, but I don't have a scum read on him so that's why he's not my first vote.
Also according to the replacement thread the host has asked for a replacement for this game, so I think that kville is just a town player who doesn't care and wants out.
I'm going to unvote drazak because I'd rather lynch someone more lurky, and because he's done a better job at contributing than he did at the start of the game. Here are my thoughts on the proposed lurker lynch candidates:
Cubu: Has expressed suspicion of drazak, and said he wants to lynch kville. I consider his vote for kville a bad idea, but he has at least given scumreads. Earlier someone said that Cubu's posting looks like that of a spazzy townie, which I agree with.
WeeTee/Stutters: I'm putting these two together because they are the lurkiest except for kville. WeeTee hasn't offered any scum reads at all, nor has he questioned anyone on anything. Stutters' only contribution towards scumhunting was his comment on kville's strange behavior. Stutters's scumhunting efforts are close enough to none I might as well call it none. Between the two of them I think WeeTee has provided greater insight into his thoughts. Stutters hasn't even obliged us with his town reads, all he's done is talk about policy and his thoughts on lists.
I want to lynch WeeTee or Stutters. Other than kville (who I'm not going to vote for because of the earlier reasons I gave) they are the lurkiest players. I can see WeeTee being town because his town meta during XXV was exactly how he's playing now, so I'm going to vote for stutters because of my WeeTee meta read and because stutters has shared less thoughts/reads out of the two.
Any reason you think that'd make him townie? At this point I think it's evident he's afk because town or maffia, he would've tried to defend himself by now. To me it pretty much makes him rand(), which still makes him a bad lynch because we want >rand() lynches and whether town or maffia lynching him gives us very little info. Not lynching him in hopes of him getting a sub seems like the obvious move.
I'm going to have to have to reread the last couple of pages but as of right now, I like my Stutter vote better than the alternatives.
On September 04 2012 02:01 kushm4sta wrote: @thrawn Let me just say that was a very nice catch on kville getting replaced. Very sharp. We certainly shouldn't vote for him now. Drazak and Cuba should change their votes. I think the replacement issue makes him just a null read.
So the drazak didn't work out for you? Now you aim your sights at Stutters. Stutters over Cuba makes ZERO sense to me.
Reason for dropping my drazak vote:
On September 04 2012 00:54 thrawn2112 wrote:I'm going to unvote drazak because I'd rather lynch someone more lurky, and because he's done a better job at contributing than he did at the start of the game.
On September 04 2012 02:01 kushm4sta wrote:He is not the ideal townie, but if you compare his filter to Cuba's, the difference is night and day. As town Stutters appears to be much more helpful, writing in depth and coherently. You are right he has offered no scum read yet. However he still has 8 hours and as he explained he is not a very active poster. On the other hand look at cuba's "scum read." It's more like a defense: you can't lynch him for lurking because kville is lurking way harder. And then he also accuses drazak...hmm that's interesting..but I'll get to that next post.
On September 03 2012 14:01 Cubu wrote: I'm kind of suspicious of drazak. He says his gonna post in a few hours but its been alot of hours since then and he hasn't posted. And why talk about the no-lynch? You can't no-lynch. There is nothing to discuss about it. And isn't it strange that of all the days, it's the first day of mafia that his dad happens to be moving out. Seems like a false excuse to me.
Anyway his scumread of drazak is based on calling him out for lurker policy fluff, which is the same reason I suspected cuba in the first place. So his "scrumread," which apparently proves his innocence in your mind, is hypocritical, unfocused, and lacking of content.
When you first accused drazak right after I accused cuba, you said
On September 03 2012 08:44 thrawn2112 wrote: In regards to your vote... I think cubu is a good pick, but I'm also considering drazak for the same reasons I'm assuming you selected cubu.
You weren't even mentioning stutters as a candidate back then, and nothing regarding him has changed. You said cuba was a good pick, so what happened??
Neither Cubu or Stutters have contributed much towards scumhunting and they're both lurky. You ask why Stutters over Cubu? Cubu more fits the profile of a townie who doesn't know what he's doing, similar to how WeeTee played in XXV. You point out that Stutter's posts are more thought out/coherent/relevant than Cubu's, which is actually part of the reason why I think stutters is a better choice. You've got two people who have been lurking and not scumhunting much/at all. Yet one of them (Stutters) seems to have a better idea of how the game is played than the other. That's why I think Cubu could just be bad town whereas stutters is scum. In regards to my thinking Cubu was a good pick, yes I agreed with you at that time. But since you made that vote he has posted more so I had to give him a little town-cred for that. Also at the time of your Cubu vote Stutters had posted way more recently than Cubu had. But look at my filter, I've paid fair attention to both cubu and stutters as well as the other lurkers. Example here.
On September 04 2012 02:12 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Any reason you think that'd make him townie? At this point I think it's evident he's afk because town or maffia, he would've tried to defend himself by now. To me it pretty much makes him rand(), which still makes him a bad lynch because we want >rand() lynches and whether town or maffia lynching him gives us very little info. Not lynching him in hopes of him getting a sub seems like the obvious move.
Yeah, here:
On September 03 2012 20:54 thrawn2112 wrote:Actually the reason why I'm hesitant to consider voting kville is because I find it hard to believe that scum would only post once. He is an acceptable lynch candidate simply because we won't have lost anything at all worth keeping, but I don't have a scum read on him so that's why he's not my first vote.
On September 04 2012 02:12 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:At this point I think it's evident he's afk because town or maffia, he would've tried to defend himself by now.
Oh and I wouldn't say he's afk, he's been playing in another mafia game all this time. It could be some elaborate ruse as scum, but I think it's more likely he doesn't want to play in this game.
On September 04 2012 02:12 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:At this point I think it's evident he's afk because town or maffia, he would've tried to defend himself by now.
Oh and I wouldn't say he's afk, he's been playing in another mafia game all this time. It could be some elaborate ruse as scum, but I think it's more likely he doesn't want to play in this game.
I don't believe it's an elaborate ruse for one second. But if he wants out, it seems like he's screwing over his sub whether he's town or maffia. For now it's a non-issue though, at least as long as people can agree not to lynch him.
Worst case scenario:he flips green No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.
Best case scenario: he is mafia If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game. People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn. People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn. Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else. Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?
On September 04 2012 02:01 kushm4sta wrote: @thrawn Let me just say that was a very nice catch on kville getting replaced. Very sharp. We certainly shouldn't vote for him now. Drazak and Cuba should change their votes. I think the replacement issue makes him just a null read.
So the drazak didn't work out for you? Now you aim your sights at Stutters. Stutters over Cuba makes ZERO sense to me. He is not the ideal townie, but if you compare his filter to Cuba's, the difference is night and day. As town Stutters appears to be much more helpful, writing in depth and coherently. You are right he has offered no scum read yet. However he still has 8 hours and as he explained he is not a very active poster. On the other hand look at cuba's "scum read." It's more like a defense: you can't lynch him for lurking because kville is lurking way harder. And then he also accuses drazak...hmm that's interesting..but I'll get to that next post.
On September 03 2012 14:01 Cubu wrote: I'm kind of suspicious of drazak. He says his gonna post in a few hours but its been alot of hours since then and he hasn't posted. And why talk about the no-lynch? You can't no-lynch. There is nothing to discuss about it. And isn't it strange that of all the days, it's the first day of mafia that his dad happens to be moving out. Seems like a false excuse to me.
Anyway his scumread of drazak is based on calling him out for lurker policy fluff, which is the same reason I suspected cuba in the first place. So his "scrumread," which apparently proves his innocence in your mind, is hypocritical, unfocused, and lacking of content.
When you first accused drazak right after I accused cuba, you said
On September 03 2012 08:44 thrawn2112 wrote: In regards to your vote... I think cubu is a good pick, but I'm also considering drazak for the same reasons I'm assuming you selected cubu.
You weren't even mentioning stutters as a candidate back then, and nothing regarding him has changed. You said cuba was a good pick, so what happened??
Stutter's posts are still kind of pseudo-helpful. That's the kind of post I'd expect from scum, Cubu's ramblings are not. I feel like Stutter has had the chance to contribute with something better by now. I'm quoting my last post of reads for updates:
On September 03 2012 15:34 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I think at this point we need to start some wagons, we need them to start with some time left for EOD to be able to get some reactions and information to work with. More than one, because have 2-3 wagons will give us better opportunities to analyze voting patterns later. I think the best strategy is to wagon suspect lurkers to force reactions/info and adjust accordingly. I'm sure there are at least one scum among the more active posters but we can deal with active posters later. My take on the lurkers (Kville, Cubu, drazark, stutters, weetee):
Kville Essentially hasn't posted anything. This is definitely suspect, but IF he is a townie who is just really busy starting a wagon won't force any reactions and thus he's not a good target for a wagon right now.
Confirmed.
Cubu: The weird spazz of this thread. A solid non-contributor. I tend to give the spazzes the benefit of the doubt. Let's look at his short posting history (highlighting points of interest):
On September 02 2012 11:02 Cubu wrote: But how do you lynch that which you cannot see?
On September 02 2012 11:04 Cubu wrote: And it might be that they are busy doing something offline (school, work etc) so it's hard to judge whether they are lurking or just afk.
On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote: I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.
3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.
So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0.
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers?
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: and its cubu, not cuba
This is a really bad defense on his part. His posts doesn't make any sense. He suspects scum to have a plan of lurking, while being a lurker himself, and he doesn't know if there's 3 or 4 scum in the game. But the thing is, when looking at his posting history, he has to be on some weird ass level for him to be scum. Let's apply occram's razor, newbie scum don't level. As I said before, lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational (see: stutters). He comes across more as a confused townie to me.
Clearly still building on that same image.
drazark: Contributes little to nothing. Claims to have little time to post due to helping his father to move. I don't think making up excuses like that is something scum would do to avoid posting. They already tend to start out the game feeling kind of guilty, spending the first entire day building up an unnecessary lie isn't very scum-like. Not a strong read either direction, he just recently posted and hopefully he can contribute more shortly.
Responded with a long list, whether townie or scum not that's unexpected. Has become way more active, which makes him an easy pick for surviving to d2. I'm neutral as far as townie/scum read goes.
Stutters: Only made one post in this thread. In it he adds little in terms of analysis and rationalizes that a low post count doesn't have to be scummy by using an old thread as "alibi", which in itself is weak argumentation. Along with his non-contribution I think he makes a good lynching candidate.
Commented above.
WeeTee: Not willing to let him off the hook after making a fluffy intro post and then a list of suspects mostly re-hashing old information/reads from earlier in the thread. A decent candidate for lynching, but since he's shown signs of being willing to contribute more, he might be better to reevaluate later.
Made one post after I made my post. He's starting to come off as Cubu, whether town or maffia they come off as confused and are really bad at defending themselves. Our obvious problem is what to do with those players. Accept them as townies because they don't make much sense? Wait until tomorrow and hope they start making sense? For now it's an issue better dealt with tomorrow. WeeTee comes off as more suspect than Cubu though, because WeeTee being scum does not requier some elaborate level.
I personally favor a ##vote stutters wagon. I don't mind a cubu or weetee wagon to see how they react. Drazark would be fourth.
So I would now rank them Stutters > WeeTee > Cubu > Drazark. Although Cubu vs Drazark can go either way. The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
Over all putting the heat on lurkers has been kind of a disappointment. Tomorrow we really need to look more closely on active posters. I will be able to check back on this thread in a couple of hours again before going to bed.
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: and its cubu, not cuba
This is a really bad defense on his part. His posts doesn't make any sense. He suspects scum to have a plan of lurking, while being a lurker himself, and he doesn't know if there's 3 or 4 scum in the game. But the thing is, when looking at his posting history, he has to be on some weird ass level for him to be scum. Let's apply occram's razor, newbie scum don't level. As I said before, lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational (see: stutters). He comes across more as a confused townie to me.
You are wrong to think that scum behavior is always this balance of good and bad townie. Everyone plays mafia differently. And I think you are also wrong to assume that for Cubu to be scum, he would have to be doing some high level mindgames. He's just new and not a good player. If he is town like you say he is, then he is bad, bad town. Wouldn't it also make sense then that as mafia he would be just as bad?
On September 04 2012 03:13 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers?
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: and its cubu, not cuba
This is a really bad defense on his part. His posts doesn't make any sense. He suspects scum to have a plan of lurking, while being a lurker himself, and he doesn't know if there's 3 or 4 scum in the game. But the thing is, when looking at his posting history, he has to be on some weird ass level for him to be scum. Let's apply occram's razor, newbie scum don't level. As I said before, lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational (see: stutters). He comes across more as a confused townie to me.
You are wrong to think that scum behavior is always this balance of good and bad townie. Everyone plays mafia differently. And I think you are also wrong to assume that for Cubu to be scum, he would have to be doing some high level mindgames. He's just new and not a good player. If he is town like you say he is, then he is bad, bad town. Wouldn't it also make sense then that as mafia he would be just as bad?
Bad townie acts differently to bad scum. I agree that an inexperienced scum who ends up in a sticky situation will react badly. However, inexperienced scum tends to be much more careful with what they say and thus are less likely to get into the sticky situation in the first place.
On September 03 2012 00:25 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: - An inexperienced townie tends to often act spazzy because he knows he's townie and somehow underestimates the power of the imperfect information in this game. Once his spazzy actions leads to a bandwagon he becomes aware of how difficult it actually is to convince others of his innocence and stop the wagon. - An inexperienced scum on the other hand is afraid of attention because he realizes the danger of a bandwagon. Since he has close to full information he feels guilty from the get go and wants to stay out of sticky situations.
(this post was written in regards to your weird voting in the beginning of the thread, but the same applies for Cubu's behaviour)
Stutters and WeeTee where you guys at? Get those votes in. Also don't just vote, give thorough explanations for your votes. By waiting so long, you guys are undermining town's attempt to agree on a lynch.
On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote: Im not lurking! I just woke up!
First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here?
@Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.
Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
You also say
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
(As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
Part 2 Incoming. I just wanted to address the case against me first to give you guys times to look it over.
Small note: if anyone has something to say I'd advice them to do it soon. Its 21:30 CET, which means there will likely be a few EUs going to sleep in 2-3h or sooner (3h ish in my case). Some EUs might not care to check the thread before sleeping either.
On September 04 2012 03:13 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers?
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: and its cubu, not cuba
This is a really bad defense on his part. His posts doesn't make any sense. He suspects scum to have a plan of lurking, while being a lurker himself, and he doesn't know if there's 3 or 4 scum in the game. But the thing is, when looking at his posting history, he has to be on some weird ass level for him to be scum. Let's apply occram's razor, newbie scum don't level. As I said before, lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational (see: stutters). He comes across more as a confused townie to me.
You are wrong to think that scum behavior is always this balance of good and bad townie. Everyone plays mafia differently. And I think you are also wrong to assume that for Cubu to be scum, he would have to be doing some high level mindgames. He's just new and not a good player. If he is town like you say he is, then he is bad, bad town. Wouldn't it also make sense then that as mafia he would be just as bad?
Bad townie acts differently to bad scum. I agree that an inexperienced scum who ends up in a sticky situation will react badly. However, inexperienced scum tends to be much more careful with what they say and thus are less likely to get into the sticky situation in the first place.
On September 03 2012 00:25 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: - An inexperienced townie tends to often act spazzy because he knows he's townie and somehow underestimates the power of the imperfect information in this game. Once his spazzy actions leads to a bandwagon he becomes aware of how difficult it actually is to convince others of his innocence and stop the wagon. - An inexperienced scum on the other hand is afraid of attention because he realizes the danger of a bandwagon. Since he has close to full information he feels guilty from the get go and wants to stay out of sticky situations.
(this post was written in regards to your weird voting in the beginning of the thread, but the same applies for Cubu's behaviour)
The first real post that he wrote with all the probability strikes me as an attempt at carefulness. Keep in mind: 1 This is his first mafia game. 2 He never puts effort into any of his posts, at least not on tl. I think it makes sense that his defense is bad, just because can't be bothered to write something good, mafia or not.
Sonic I urge you to change your vote. Step into the shoes of a total noob shitty poster who doesn't feel like writing anything long. He just did this game for the shits and giggles not to try hard. Also consider the benefits of a cuba lynch, even if he is not mafia. Worst poster in town gone. Thrawn gets major town points. Now most importantly consider the benefits if he is scum. We know almost for sure that thrawn is red.
Our read of stutters will only benefit from more time, since he actually posts and there will be more to evaluate. Our read of cuba will stay the same, since he has never shown even the intention of making any cases.
I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.
3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.
So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0.
To me this is the hardest cuba tried on a post and it is the epitome of overcarefulness.
Well.here I go. I am not in favor of d1 lynch as it really proves and shows any connections to the game whatsoever. Sorry for my absence but reads are pointless at this point
On September 04 2012 04:47 Kville wrote: Well.here I go. I am not in favor of d1 lynch as it really proves and shows any connections to the game whatsoever. Sorry for my absence but reads are pointless at this point
We know you know how to play Kville. So start explaining. Currently it seems like you're lying because your 3rd post on Day 1 in NMIII was a vote on Marvellosity. Even if you are telling the truth about your thoughts on d1 lynches your play is so anti-town we honestly would be better off without you
On September 04 2012 04:47 Kville wrote: Well.here I go. I am not in favor of d1 lynch as it really proves and shows any connections to the game whatsoever. Sorry for my absence but reads are pointless at this point
First, as it's been stated several times, no-lynch isn't an option. You say reads are pointless on D1. But how will reads become less pointless during D2 if hypothetically we could choose to no-lynch? Lynching makes people commit to reads.
You just posted so apparently you want to remain in the game. If so you need to vote to avoid being modkilled so who is your vote?
On September 04 2012 04:47 Kville wrote: Well.here I go. I am not in favor of d1 lynch as it really proves and shows any connections to the game whatsoever. Sorry for my absence but reads are pointless at this point
First, as it's been stated several times, no-lynch isn't an option. You say reads are pointless on D1. But how will reads become less pointless during D2 if hypothetically we could choose to no-lynch? Lynching makes people commit to reads.
You just posted so apparently you want to remain in the game. If so you need to vote to avoid being modkilled so who is your vote?
I'll probably not vote Kville for the reason that he should be replaced. But that reply after saying like 10 words in 40 hours sure as hell doesnt make him look better.
English might not be my first languege, but I consider myself quite well versed. But I still have no idea what this means (I understand the words, not the meaning).
On September 04 2012 04:47 Kville wrote: proves and shows any connections to the game
How does one "prove and show connection to a game"?
On September 04 2012 05:05 Kreb wrote: I'll probably not vote Kville for the reason that he should be replaced. But that reply after saying like 10 words in 40 hours sure as hell doesnt make him look better.
English might not be my first languege, but I consider myself quite well versed. But I still have no idea what this means (I understand the words, not the meaning).
On September 04 2012 04:47 Kville wrote: proves and shows any connections to the game
How does one "prove and show connection to a game"?
He's saying that a D1 lynch will not help us get reads on anyone.....which is not true.
Anyway unless Cubu comes back and posts some content I think he's our best lynch today.He's provided nothing. He's skirted issues and essentially said he shouldn't be lynched because other people post less (even though if you tally his posts since the initial first few on policy and the like he's said absolutely nothing of value).
By the same token I'd support a lynch on Kville if we can consolidate enough votes on him. There is at least one person who said they probably won't be back before lynch who is on Cubu and we can't trust Kville's vote on himself. Because of that I have to go with Cubu but I'm open to switching if there is support.
On September 04 2012 05:03 thrawn2112 wrote: From the OP:
4. You may vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game.
Kville do you want to be lynched/replaced/modkilled?
What seems tobe the problem.? It says I may vote for my self. Correct? I am making a statement. If you wanna have a vote from me today then it will be the same as voting for myself. becuase eitjer way we are going to losea town today.
On September 04 2012 04:56 Stutters695 wrote: We know you know how to play Kville. So start explaining. Currently it seems like you're lying because your 3rd post on Day 1 in NMIII was a vote on Marvellosity. Even if you are telling the truth about your thoughts on d1 lynches your play is so anti-town we honestly would be better off without you
Actually I'm in agreement with this, especially the bolded part.
Kville answer this question. You have played extremely poorly, broken a rule, and there is the evidence in the replacement thread that suggest you wanted to be removed from the game. Do you want to play or not? If you do, then why are you purposely playing so extremely anti-town? I say your bad play is intentional because here are your actions:
-Lurk on 1 post until near voting deadline -Broke a rule by self-voting -Make an statement about non-lynching so illogical I don't think anyone would have it as an honest opinion
Weetee are you around? I made a request earlier for you to do some scumhunting and I would really like to see some before the deadline/I comment more...
I am ignoring Kville for the moment... I think the quality of his posts is self evident, but he is just a distraction atm.
I really dont like that town seems to be forced to lynch 1-2 people for the purpose of them not contributing at all and playing (purposedly?) bad. If they flip town, we'll be down to 5-3 from 9-3 before we can start trying to find the real scum. If they flip scum, sure we'll likely win but theres gonna be little satisfaction winning against mafia either not trying or just playing terrible. But in the end trying to find the scum among the active posters (should be 1-2 of them at least) is an even worse choice considering we might go down to 5-3 while still having non-contributors left.
On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote: Im not lurking! I just woke up!
First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here?
This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.
The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about:
1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making.
You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy?
As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: You also say
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all.
The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2.
And now shit seems to hit the fan. I know not being able to be around for EOD would come back and bite me in the ass. I hope you guys will be able to make some good decisions.
On September 04 2012 04:56 Stutters695 wrote: We know you know how to play Kville. So start explaining. Currently it seems like you're lying because your 3rd post on Day 1 in NMIII was a vote on Marvellosity. Even if you are telling the truth about your thoughts on d1 lynches your play is so anti-town we honestly would be better off without you
Actually I'm in agreement with this, especially the bolded part.
Kville answer this question. You have played extremely poorly, broken a rule, and there is the evidence in the replacement thread that suggest you wanted to be removed from the game. Do you want to play or not? If you do, then why are you purposely playing so extremely anti-town? I say your bad play is intentional because here are your actions:
-Lurk on 1 post until near voting deadline -Broke a rule by self-voting -Make an statement about non-lynching so illogical I don't think anyone would have it as an honest opinion
So why play intentionally bad if you are town?
Over analyzing is cute and can be a feature of a scum. It is day one and it seem as if you are in desperate need for a lynch. so desperate in fact that you are over reading the rulebook and calling me a cheater.
On September 04 2012 04:56 Stutters695 wrote: We know you know how to play Kville. So start explaining. Currently it seems like you're lying because your 3rd post on Day 1 in NMIII was a vote on Marvellosity. Even if you are telling the truth about your thoughts on d1 lynches your play is so anti-town we honestly would be better off without you
Actually I'm in agreement with this, especially the bolded part.
Kville answer this question. You have played extremely poorly, broken a rule, and there is the evidence in the replacement thread that suggest you wanted to be removed from the game. Do you want to play or not? If you do, then why are you purposely playing so extremely anti-town? I say your bad play is intentional because here are your actions:
-Lurk on 1 post until near voting deadline -Broke a rule by self-voting -Make an statement about non-lynching so illogical I don't think anyone would have it as an honest opinion
So why play intentionally bad if you are town?
Over analyzing is cute and can be a feature of a scum. It is day one and it seem as if you are in desperate need for a lynch. so desperate in fact that you are over reading the rulebook and calling me a cheater.
Ok cool but again, why are you playing intentionally bad town?
On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote: On a percentage basis I think it is more likely that cuba or weetee or stutters (who never asked those "questions" he was promising) or drazak are scum who have realised their mistake and are trying to cover for it - rather than kville who is being such a blatant lurk.
Good catch, forgot about that.
Any comments on this, Stutters?
Then you follow it up by posting this:
Part 2 Incoming. I just wanted to address the case against me first to give you guys times to look it over.
So, we got this part 2 coming anytime soon?
Or are you, for the second time, saying you will do something and then just ignore it?
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Alright, a couple of thoughts.
On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote: Im not lurking! I just woke up!
First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here?
This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.
The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about:
1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making.
You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy?
As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: You also say
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all.
The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2.
Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before.
Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good.
The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all.
Yawn - Ok... I am going to ignore Kville for the moment because his posting is useless.
At this point I am happy to get on Kush's Cubu wagon. He has made a cogent case for why Cubu is a decent lynch and has offered up a plausible reason (meta) why he prefers him to Weetee. I have said already that I am sceptical of the value of meta in a newbie game, but looking back at the thread I can't honestly say I have a better case on Weetee than Kush does on Cubu and all day 1 reads are fairly weak by necessity.
Weetee still remains in my mind though and I certainly will want to examine him again D2. He has ignored/not seen/not yet answered my request, but I assume he will see it when he comes to vote soonish assuming he does not want to get modkilled. As I will be asleep for the lynch - gl town.
On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote: On a percentage basis I think it is more likely that cuba or weetee or stutters (who never asked those "questions" he was promising) or drazak are scum who have realised their mistake and are trying to cover for it - rather than kville who is being such a blatant lurk.
Part 2 Incoming. I just wanted to address the case against me first to give you guys times to look it over.
So, we got this part 2 coming anytime soon?
Or are you, for the second time, saying you will do something and then just ignore it?
Sorry I didn't see your post about that. Regardless I fell asleep as it was like 4am my time when I posted that. Other people have since covered what I would have questioned them about.
Many sorrys for not contributing. I am being subbed out after the day period, I just don't have the time. Please consider my previous post and attempts when deciding. My vote in this situation goes to ##Vote Cubu With seemingly all the opportunity to defend it self, the lack of content is my best glancing bet. Hopefully you give my replacement a chance to play annnd i'm out.
@kville Hi! Can you please explain what is going on with you? Do you not want to play anymore? In that case ask for a replacement. Are you mafia? Are you trolling?
This game has so many lurkers... it really makes it hard for town.
On September 04 2012 08:54 kushm4sta wrote: @kville Hi! Can you please explain what is going on with you? Do you not want to play anymore? In that case ask for a replacement. Are you mafia? Are you trolling?
This game has so many lurkers... it really makes it hard for town.
That line of questioning is a waste of time, I was asking those same questions while he was in thread and he didn't answer and just kept trolling or whatever it is he's doing. Don't know what to make of it. The only two options I see for him are being mafia or being town and intentionally playing poorly.
On September 04 2012 08:54 kushm4sta wrote: @kville Hi! Can you please explain what is going on with you? Do you not want to play anymore? In that case ask for a replacement. Are you mafia? Are you trolling?
This game has so many lurkers... it really makes it hard for town.
That line of questioning is a waste of time, I was asking those same questions while he was in thread and he didn't answer and just kept trolling or whatever it is he's doing. Don't know what to make of it. The only two options I see for him are being mafia or being town and intentionally playing poorly.
I'm really at a loss at what do with this guy... one thing is certain, we will waste much time d2 trying to decide.
On September 04 2012 08:54 kushm4sta wrote: @kville Hi! Can you please explain what is going on with you? Do you not want to play anymore? In that case ask for a replacement. Are you mafia? Are you trolling?
This game has so many lurkers... it really makes it hard for town.
That line of questioning is a waste of time, I was asking those same questions while he was in thread and he didn't answer and just kept trolling or whatever it is he's doing. Don't know what to make of it. The only two options I see for him are being mafia or being town and intentionally playing poorly.
I'm really at a loss at what do with this guy... one thing is certain, we will waste much time d2 trying to decide.
Yeah. Apparently the replacement was WeeTee so it looks like Kville is going to stay in. I don't think there's enough time to lynch him right now if that's what you're implying but I wouldn't be opposed to it just because it's a huge problem we shouldn't have to deal with.
After a lengthy debate, the town brought forth Cubu, better known as Boomhauer, to answer for his crimes.
Town:What do you have to say for yourself? Boomhauer:Yeah man, I tell ya what, man. That dang ol' mafia and those dang ol' guns. You know, going all pew, pew, pew. Then bang-boom and y'all dang ol' dead. Oh man I tell you what!
So who was positive about the lynch? And let me guess im the next lynch scum is going to try to push through. See what I mean about day1 reads and lynches. It just puts a smile on the scums faces.
Sigh so he was just town with a bad defence. I guess now the fact that he didn't realise he was a lurker makes sence. After I get back will have to re-read the thread.
On September 04 2012 10:32 thrawn2112 wrote: With that ole playboy gone the alley's gonna feel empty for a while I tell you what........................yep
On September 04 2012 10:37 kitaman27 wrote: imcasey has replaced WeeTee. Everyone say hi!
Hi imcasey and welcome to Arlen. We may not have all those fancy city "disco clubs" or high tech "theme parks", but you'll find that our town members are God-fearing productive citizens who understand the importance of a well kept lawn. You should go find the chairman of your neighborhood block charter to get started.
On September 04 2012 10:32 thrawn2112 wrote: With that ole playboy gone the alley's gonna feel empty for a while I tell you what........................yep
I'm gonna be looking closely at the people who voted for cubu, with special emphasis on their motives and explanations for doing so.
I dont know dude... he seemed like such a better lynch than everyone else to me.
Hi new guy!
Well for example, you were very outspoken and probably wrote the most about why he should be lynched. That makes me think your motivations were genuine. Of course I'm going to go through your filter when I look at everyone else's but I think your vote for cubu was townish. My first goal is to try and figure out if there was anyone who voted for cubu who:
-had scummy posting/behavior outside of their cubu vote -didn't seem at all genuine or invested in their cubu vote
Oh well. But to be quite honest I dont feel too bad about it. It would have been even more of a mess trying to single out someone scummy among the active posters. And hitting a town first day is to be expected. At least we didnt hit a blue.
Kush seemed to be the only one going heavy on Cubu. Rest kinda went with it because they were ok with it (myself included I guess). Though it's not really a town tell either if someone didnt bandwagon him either since it's very easy for a mafia to see where the votes are going and then post a weak case on someone else because they know we're lynching a townie anyway.
I still think that Cubu, WeeTee and Stutters695 are the most suspicious players based on Day 1 filters. Obviously Cubu was town after all, but sadly there are always townies among the top lynch candidates.
My next vote would go to WeeTee. He has played too carefully and neutrally for it to be inexperienced town play - I'd expect inexperienced town to play recklessly or somehow stupidly, but not trying to avoid attention. That's exactly what WeeTee has achieved so far. He made a wishy-washy "could be Mafia, could be town" statement about Cubu, then proceeded to vote for him anyway (pure bandwagoning). All his other reads are extremely neutral and weak as well. Everything points to him being an inexperienced Mafia player rather than an inexperienced town player. He was just replaced, though, so let's see if imcasey can bring something new to the table...
I don't think kville is Mafia, but he is a serious distraction for anything constructive. If there is a Vigilante, kville would make for a good shot.
The biggest read I think we can get from this is that people who actively were opposed of the lynch early on before the bandwagon was rolling. Simply because a mafia will likely not commit to saving a townie. Either he will jump on the bandwagon or he will post a case on someone else who wont get lynched anyway. A quick look back reveals that Sonic as an early sceptic to the lynch. Thats a bit of towncred in my book.
On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Alright, a couple of thoughts.
On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote: Im not lurking! I just woke up!
First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here?
This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.
The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about:
1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making.
You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy?
As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: You also say
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all.
The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2.
Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before.
Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good.
The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all.
EOD = End of day
Honestly I don't find this response very satisfying. It seems like we have quite different experiences from the game though and we might both be biased. Imo d1 the town usually focus way too much on active players while scum try to fly under the radar. That's why I like putting pressure on lurkers, you were just one of them and the one I happened to find the most suspect.
You're saying we're focus too little on motives? The motive of flying under the radar is to just sit back while the town starts flinging poo on eachother. I'm still not sure what your motive of making generic posts was. Maybe someone who followed XXIV can chime in? Thrawn, it seems like you were playing that game?
On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote: On a percentage basis I think it is more likely that cuba or weetee or stutters (who never asked those "questions" he was promising) or drazak are scum who have realised their mistake and are trying to cover for it - rather than kville who is being such a blatant lurk.
I wouldn't read too much into the Cubu lynch. To me it seems like a pretty standard d1 lynch where a careless newbie town says stupid things, the town goes "this makes no sense, let's lynch him" and we have a d1 mislynch.
I don't have more time right now though and will need to get back with more thoughts in the afternoon.
On September 04 2012 10:40 Kville wrote: O.O ##vote imcasey
Haha that was almost my reaction to having thrawn in the thread. Just policy lynch him but jokes aside.
We had 8 votes on cubu, 5 of which were town at least. (Some of the mafia might have when they realised it was a good lynch started up other lynches to seem town) (Part of the reason I still am not ruling out killing time)In my opinion there were far better people to lynch than WeeTee (now imcasey) although he did change his vote. The problem is it was such a good lynch. (At least at the time when I left the thread) There was little talk of a stutters lynch. And Drazak had just become active.
So who started the bandwagon? Who joined in?(in a strange manner) I am almost sure one of the three sonic, myself or killing is mafia. More killing because he promised a (probably longer post in the evening then just said goodnight.) Admittedly this is a really weak reason. That said I believe sonic said something was up (with cubu) and then kush and I latched on.
Just noticed kerb posted and Xatalos posted. We shouldn’t feel too bad about it but it is annoying. YES Exactly Kreb about the weak lynch *cough* Killing *cough* also good point about who was opposed. However I thought sonic started the suspicion?
On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote: I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.
3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.
So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0.
If that was the case, then Kville, TeeWee, dazark and you would be prime candidates. You're the ones flying under the radar atm.
The observations you make in this post are both obvious and have been covered earlier in the thread. It isn't very convincing and it makes you suspicious. I'm sorry if it's just due to inexperience, but if you want to contribute you need up your level of analysis. To update my list:
Townie: kush xatalos thrawn
Scum: teewee cuba
Killer and Kreb dropped from suspect list due to solid contributions.
When did he become a sceptic? Was it after he got the ball rolling?
To Xatalos I would simply wait for Imcasey to start posting. Stutters would be a stronger read for me but that is just my opinion.
And now Sonic posts. It is true shouldn’t read too much into it but is this because you started this?
On September 03 2012 15:34 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I think at this point we need to start some wagons, we need them to start with some time left for EOD to be able to get some reactions and information to work with. More than one, because have 2-3 wagons will give us better opportunities to analyze voting patterns later. I think the best strategy is to wagon suspect lurkers to force reactions/info and adjust accordingly. I'm sure there are at least one scum among the more active posters but we can deal with active posters later. My take on the lurkers (Kville, Cubu, drazark, stutters, weetee):
Kville Essentially hasn't posted anything. This is definitely suspect, but IF he is a townie who is just really busy starting a wagon won't force any reactions and thus he's not a good target for a wagon right now.
Cubu: The weird spazz of this thread. A solid non-contributor. I tend to give the spazzes the benefit of the doubt. Let's look at his short posting history (highlighting points of interest):
On September 02 2012 11:02 Cubu wrote: But how do you lynch that which you cannot see?
On September 02 2012 11:04 Cubu wrote: And it might be that they are busy doing something offline (school, work etc) so it's hard to judge whether they are lurking or just afk.
On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote: I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.
3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.
So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0.
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers?
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: and its cubu, not cuba
This is a really bad defense on his part. His posts doesn't make any sense. He suspects scum to have a plan of lurking, while being a lurker himself, and he doesn't know if there's 3 or 4 scum in the game. But the thing is, when looking at his posting history, he has to be on some weird ass level for him to be scum. Let's apply occram's razor, newbie scum don't level. As I said before, lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational (see: stutters). He comes across more as a confused townie to me.
drazark: Contributes little to nothing. Claims to have little time to post due to helping his father to move. I don't think making up excuses like that is something scum would do to avoid posting. They already tend to start out the game feeling kind of guilty, spending the first entire day building up an unnecessary lie isn't very scum-like. Not a strong read either direction, he just recently posted and hopefully he can contribute more shortly.
Stutters: Only made one post in this thread. In it he adds little in terms of analysis and rationalizes that a low post count doesn't have to be scummy by using an old thread as "alibi", which in itself is weak argumentation. Along with his non-contribution I think he makes a good lynching candidate.
WeeTee: Not willing to let him off the hook after making a fluffy intro post and then a list of suspects mostly re-hashing old information/reads from earlier in the thread. A decent candidate for lynching, but since he's shown signs of being willing to contribute more, he might be better to reevaluate later.
I personally favor a ##vote stutters wagon. I don't mind a cubu or weetee wagon to see how they react. Drazark would be fourth.
Thats the post im referring to Jacob about Sonic. Page 13. Thats towncred to me.
That was also before I had cast my vote. My vote was 2nd. So at that time it wasnt clear at all there would be a Cubu lynch. As such, going in as mafia and say that he comes off as a confused townie would be a bit risky move (obviously not something a crafty mafia would be unable to do, but its something).
Ohh I see. Interesting. Yeah he does lean closer to town now that you posted that and anybody would have picked up cubu on his post at least eventually.
the game will be put on halt until the night post is up
and this just means we can't start voting again until after the night post?
No we can talk during the night. That quote is referring to a hypothetical scenario where the host is unable to make the night post on time. night post = lynch results
On September 04 2012 16:26 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: You're saying we're focus too little on motives? The motive of flying under the radar is to just sit back while the town starts flinging poo on eachother. I'm still not sure what your motive of making generic posts was. Maybe someone who followed XXIV can chime in? Thrawn, it seems like you were playing that game?
I'm not exactly sure what you want me to chime in on but I'll talk about scumhunting priorities that you and stutters seem to be arguing about.
In XXIV, there was a massive shit-flinging fight between shady and I. There were people who thought shady was being completely illogical, and there were people who though I was being completely illogical. The vote was closely split between shady and I and shady ended up getting lynched. But the people who voted for either of us voted on the premise that illogical posting = scum. There weren't any good scum-motive explanations for either shady or my actions and the votes were completely based on "well this guy says dumb stuff." Then D2 I got lynched and flipped vigilante, and once again nobody was voting based off scum-motive suspicions. The case against me was that my vig claim was unbelievable, and there was an association case against me because another player and I had made extremely similar posts at the exact same time which made people think that we were in conversation with each other as scum. Meanwhile there was a player who had been saying extremely illogical stuff, but most people gave him a town read because they thought there'd be no way that a scum would be so illogical. His actual actions/votes were so extremely scummy throughout the whole game. However, people ignored that because they were spending too much time trying to make reads based on the quality of his posts, when instead they should have been looking at his motives behind the posts. The point is motives>quality of posts in terms of importance to making reads.
That was the reason I favored lynching stutters over cubu. They both were heavy lurkers without much actual contribution in the few posts they had made. The people who voted for cubu did it because the quality (reasoning, writing style, and relevance to the thread) of stutter's posts was much higher than cubu's. So in their eyes, having low quality posts (see my earlier definition of quality) makes you look scummy. I didn't think that was a good assumption to make, and I preferred voting stutters because stutters had done less scumhunting than cubu. At the time of deciding between the two, the only scumhunting stutters had done was the very last paragraph of this post. Cubu of course hadn't done as much scumhunting as most poeple, but his contributions towards finding scum were more than what stutters gave. It was a vote based on motives instead of quality... somebody who doesn't scumhunt (ask questions, state what you find scummy, accuse people with FOS and such) is not a town player.
Ok, So due to motivation stutters is likely to be scum. But I would like some answers out of Killing as to what he is thinking right now. Your only real strong read as the game went on was WeeTee but considering he didn't have time and had to leave the thread it is likely he is town without time. (now ImCasey)
So what do you think now? I have been ranting at you for a while (maybe misguided) but you could give me something to go on. You also mention that it is
"Kush's Cubu wagon"
any particular reason for this? Just thought it was slightly strange that you would point out who started the wagon in particular.
Also you could have a scum motivation for trying to stop people talking at night. Just saying.
Also here
Leaving aside your other points for the moment
You left them aside forever. The only other comment you seemed to make was
Jacob, I did not find your response to me very helpful, it was clearly contradictory for you to say that my reads were very/too safe and then give the "reads" that you did.
You would think you could come up with something better than that? When people accuse me of things I list reasons why it's illogical and such. You seem to be hiding under short posts now.
I don't think I'm going to try and make any reads until we see who mafia kills. I think Stutters and Kville are both good options at the moment, and I'd really still like to see kville go because he made almost no contributions.
Regarding lynching Cubu, it wasn't due to how his posts looked, I could care less. I felt the content of his posts was lacking and poorly thought out. A lot of my posts will have and have had poor formatting.
On September 04 2012 22:53 drazak wrote: I don't think I'm going to try and make any reads until we see who mafia kills. I think Stutters and Kville are both good options at the moment, and I'd really still like to see kville go because he made almost no contributions.
Regarding lynching Cubu, it wasn't due to how his posts looked, I could care less. I felt the content of his posts was lacking and poorly thought out. A lot of my posts will have and have had poor formatting.
You "could care less" how his posts looked yet you voted for him because you "felt the content of his posts was lacking and poorly thought out." That looks like a contradiction could you clarify what you meant?
I am continuing to do reads incase I am killed. Although I doubt you would be as you seem an easier person to lynch. However I shouldn't discuss this section too much as I don't want to give them anything to work with. Also it does seem like a slight contradiction unless you mean he would be a pointless town to have. Also if you "Could care less" that implies that you care at least a little bit. Horrible american use of the saying... I know what you mean though.
On September 04 2012 23:09 JacobStrangelove wrote: Also if you "Could care less" that implies that you care at least a little bit. Horrible american use of the saying... I know what you mean though.
Yeah, I agree with continuing on sharing reads. There's the reason for doing it in case you're night-killed, and also putting a stop on scumhunting will stifle discussion when D2 starts.
On September 04 2012 23:09 JacobStrangelove wrote: Also if you "Could care less" that implies that you care at least a little bit. Horrible american use of the saying... I know what you mean though.
Haha, It's not so much the meaning or the straight logical definition it's the imposibility of telling how much someone could care. For example I would go I don't care much. I couldn't care less is also a problem as most people do care (why I didn't say he was wrong just saying the saying in it's self is annoying. But... I only brought it up because you said it was a contradiction when it might not have been.
(also this shouldn't even be an issue I just don't have anything else to say now lol)
On September 04 2012 16:26 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: You're saying we're focus too little on motives? The motive of flying under the radar is to just sit back while the town starts flinging poo on eachother. I'm still not sure what your motive of making generic posts was. Maybe someone who followed XXIV can chime in? Thrawn, it seems like you were playing that game?
I'm not exactly sure what you want me to chime in on but I'll talk about scumhunting priorities that you and stutters seem to be arguing about.
In XXIV, there was a massive shit-flinging fight between shady and I. There were people who thought shady was being completely illogical, and there were people who though I was being completely illogical. The vote was closely split between shady and I and shady ended up getting lynched. But the people who voted for either of us voted on the premise that illogical posting = scum. There weren't any good scum-motive explanations for either shady or my actions and the votes were completely based on "well this guy says dumb stuff." Then D2 I got lynched and flipped vigilante, and once again nobody was voting based off scum-motive suspicions. The case against me was that my vig claim was unbelievable, and there was an association case against me because another player and I had made extremely similar posts at the exact same time which made people think that we were in conversation with each other as scum. Meanwhile there was a player who had been saying extremely illogical stuff, but most people gave him a town read because they thought there'd be no way that a scum would be so illogical. His actual actions/votes were so extremely scummy throughout the whole game. However, people ignored that because they were spending too much time trying to make reads based on the quality of his posts, when instead they should have been looking at his motives behind the posts. The point is motives>quality of posts in terms of importance to making reads.
That was the reason I favored lynching stutters over cubu. They both were heavy lurkers without much actual contribution in the few posts they had made. The people who voted for cubu did it because the quality (reasoning, writing style, and relevance to the thread) of stutter's posts was much higher than cubu's. So in their eyes, having low quality posts (see my earlier definition of quality) makes you look scummy. I didn't think that was a good assumption to make, and I preferred voting stutters because stutters had done less scumhunting than cubu. At the time of deciding between the two, the only scumhunting stutters had done was the very last paragraph of this post. Cubu of course hadn't done as much scumhunting as most poeple, but his contributions towards finding scum were more than what stutters gave. It was a vote based on motives instead of quality... somebody who doesn't scumhunt (ask questions, state what you find scummy, accuse people with FOS and such) is not a town player.
I was mainly asking for your (or others') opinion on whether his posts made sense knowing the XXIV background, but thanks for describing the event in detail.
Stutters, I think it's a fine to make the argument that low post counts doesn't necessarily equal scummy behaviour and that motives > quality. But trying to rationalize that low post counts doesn't equal scum while at the same time contributing nothing is shady. We don't want to justify lurking, we want people to look for motives while at the same time making good observations/reads/analyses (d1 you did neither).
I got some thoughts on last yesterday's events, but I still got some catching up to do in this thread.
Kville is a huge problem. Here's a summary of his actions so far:
His first post which is 12 hours into the game, is only to inform us: "Im not lurking! I just woke up!" In his next post, 6 hours later, he says that he's not in favor of a D1 lynch which isn't even possible. He also says that reads are pointless during D1. Then he self-votes. When asked why he self-voted, he said it was to make a point. His point was that trying to have any reads at all during D1 is a waste of time, therefore his vote on himself and his vote for another player have equal merit. If he doesn't like voting based on reads during D1, then why not vote for one of the lurkers? His vote is completely useless and is anti-town regardless of whether he's town/scum.
I do not see his actions or opinions as logical. If we were to take his advice and not try to make any reads during D1, then we will have nothing to start with on D2. Even if a townie gets lynched on D1 it will at least cause people to commit to reads which we can later analyze for how genuine their read seemed. I pointed out that his logic and play are so unbelievably horrible that it must be trollling, and I asked him for an explanation as to what exactly it is he's doing by playing so anti-town. His response was this post where he not only didn't answer my question, he also said my interrogation of him looks scummy. What happened to his strong conviction that we shouldn't make reads during the first day? He goes out of his way to prove his point that making reads is useless, but immediately as I put pressure on him he abandons his "no reads on D1" policy in order to call me scummy?
After the lynch he goes on about about his "scumhunting is worthless in D1" idea. So kville, according to you when is a good time to start making reads? Surely you don't think that we should continue to not make reads? So what is your read then, now that D1 is over? I see you voted for the replacement player imcasey but you didn't put it in the voting thread. Is this another one of your anti-town troll posts or do you have a read on him which for some reason you won't explain?
Once again I want you to answer to why you're playing so incredibly anti-town.
Yes, I was suspicious of wetee and wanted to hear his opinions - but as he has been replaced we will have to see what he replacement brings. Frankly, I am still suspicious of him and I will be watching his replacement very closely - but it is true that if he has had to be replaced then the reasons could be the reasons why he appeared scummy if he was a town who just didn't have much time.
In regards to the phrase ""Kush's Cubu wagon" I think that is a fair reflection of the thread at that point. Kush pushed kubu as the "best" lynch of the small number of lurkers. No-one else was talking much about weetee, (except to say he was an ok lynch but not their preferred choice) so I tried instead to be helpfull to town by supporting the read of a player who I had no real scum read on and who I felt was making a solid, logical case for a lynch.
you could have a scum motivation for trying to stop people talking at night. Just saying.
I don't, it was just a mistake/misunderstanding of how the game works. Looking back at other games I should have worked it out without being told, but it hardly inhibited discussion much?
I did leave your other points aside because it was clear that at that point the thread was moving on. The main problems you had with my play as I understood it were: a) the time of my postings - which I addressed to your satisfaction I think and b) The fact that my reads were too "safe" - which I did not feel needed a longer comment.
Looking back at the thread I don't think it would have been possible to make a scum read that was not absurd that you could not have twisted into an opinion that it was "safe" at that point, and the fact that you then posted your reads which were a) me - for reasons I did not credit (obviously) and otherwise essentially the same players - still seems like nonsense to me.
In regards to my complaints about your posting style & your response to it. I continue to find it hard to read but I have not formed a revised opinion about how scummy it is. With you & sonic - I need to find time to look through your filter's again and look at your play over time & in context before I come to any new opinions, as you were never going to be lynched yesterday I put this on the backburner.
On September 05 2012 01:03 thrawn2112 wrote: ##FOS Kville
[/b] Hasnt he been FoS for everyone? :p
I dont even know what to think of him, but most likely hes trolling.
Though, one thing struck me. The OP says this: Play to win. Isnt Kville pretty much by default.... A) Scum B) Breaking the rule It could even be argued that he is.... C) Both ?
CUBU I'm sorry! If you are still reading this thread.
Regarding Kville: I think he is a town troll. Hopefully we have a vigi that can kill him. If we don't have a solid suspect for day 2, I'm fine with a lynch on him, just as a pure policy lynch. I would rather lynch him than someone active who we don't have a really good case against.
I will be back in a few hours with a post focusing on the more active people for a change.
On September 05 2012 01:03 thrawn2112 wrote: ##FOS Kville
Hasnt he been FoS for everyone? :p
I dont even know what to think of him, but most likely hes trolling.
Though, one thing struck me. The OP says this: Play to win. Isnt Kville pretty much by default.... A) Scum B) Breaking the rule It could even be argued that he is.... C) Both ?
Yeah I think regardless of his alignment he's trolling. Based on how he posted near the voting deadline I was wanting to lynch him and I thought that kush was thinking the same thing as well, but at that point it was too late and not enough people were in the thread. (top of page 17)
So what should we do about it? Trying to get meaningful posts and arguments out of a troll player is just going to result in more trolling so I don't want to spend a lot of time on it during D2 because of the odds. If we lynch him D2 and he's town, then we will be at 6:3 town/scum ratio if the night kill goes through without a save/rb. Policy lynching is ok for D1 but I don't really like it for D2.
Kville, this is why if you are town you need to start participating.
On September 05 2012 01:03 thrawn2112 wrote: ##FOS Kville
Hasnt he been FoS for everyone? :p
I dont even know what to think of him, but most likely hes trolling.
Though, one thing struck me. The OP says this: Play to win. Isnt Kville pretty much by default.... A) Scum B) Breaking the rule It could even be argued that he is.... C) Both ?
Yeah I think regardless of his alignment he's trolling. Based on how he posted near the voting deadline I was wanting to lynch him and I thought that kush was thinking the same thing as well, but at that point it was too late and not enough people were in the thread. (top of page 17)
So what should we do about it? Trying to get meaningful posts and arguments out of a troll player is just going to result in more trolling so I don't want to spend a lot of time on it during D2 because of the odds. If we lynch him D2 and he's town, then we will be at 6:3 town/scum ratio if the night kill goes through without a save/rb. Policy lynching is ok for D1 but I don't really like it for D2.
Kville, this is why if you are town you need to start participating.
I dont know. We could attempt to lynch him D2 while pleading for a modkill before the vote goes through should he be town. Maybe thats shitty because we basically cant lose, so mafia will be at a disadvantage. But I just cant see how he did not break the rule if hes town.
Iv started reading trough all threads trying to catch up, just want to let you know im here and will be as active as possible, il post a more detailed post in some hours when ik got a better view of everything.
On September 05 2012 01:03 thrawn2112 wrote: ##FOS Kville
Hasnt he been FoS for everyone? :p
I dont even know what to think of him, but most likely hes trolling.
Though, one thing struck me. The OP says this: Play to win. Isnt Kville pretty much by default.... A) Scum B) Breaking the rule It could even be argued that he is.... C) Both ?
Yeah I think regardless of his alignment he's trolling. Based on how he posted near the voting deadline I was wanting to lynch him and I thought that kush was thinking the same thing as well, but at that point it was too late and not enough people were in the thread. (top of page 17)
So what should we do about it? Trying to get meaningful posts and arguments out of a troll player is just going to result in more trolling so I don't want to spend a lot of time on it during D2 because of the odds. If we lynch him D2 and he's town, then we will be at 6:3 town/scum ratio if the night kill goes through without a save/rb. Policy lynching is ok for D1 but I don't really like it for D2.
Kville, this is why if you are town you need to start participating.
I dont know. We could attempt to lynch him D2 while pleading for a modkill before the vote goes through should he be town. Maybe thats shitty because we basically cant lose, so mafia will be at a disadvantage. But I just cant see how he did not break the rule if hes town.
The problem with asking for a modkill is that there is always the extremely unlikely chance that he is town and actually thinks he is playing to win. There is also the problem that asking for a modkill under the condition that a player is a certain alignment puts the mod in a position where they would be unfairly giving out information. I think we should leave all discussion of modkilling to the mods unless he blantantly and unquestionably breaks rules.
On September 05 2012 01:03 thrawn2112 wrote: ##FOS Kville
Hasnt he been FoS for everyone? :p
I dont even know what to think of him, but most likely hes trolling.
Though, one thing struck me. The OP says this: Play to win. Isnt Kville pretty much by default.... A) Scum B) Breaking the rule It could even be argued that he is.... C) Both ?
Yeah I think regardless of his alignment he's trolling. Based on how he posted near the voting deadline I was wanting to lynch him and I thought that kush was thinking the same thing as well, but at that point it was too late and not enough people were in the thread. (top of page 17)
So what should we do about it? Trying to get meaningful posts and arguments out of a troll player is just going to result in more trolling so I don't want to spend a lot of time on it during D2 because of the odds. If we lynch him D2 and he's town, then we will be at 6:3 town/scum ratio if the night kill goes through without a save/rb. Policy lynching is ok for D1 but I don't really like it for D2.
Kville, this is why if you are town you need to start participating.
I dont know. We could attempt to lynch him D2 while pleading for a modkill before the vote goes through should he be town. Maybe thats shitty because we basically cant lose, so mafia will be at a disadvantage. But I just cant see how he did not break the rule if hes town.
The problem with asking for a modkill is that there is always the extremely unlikely chance that he is town and actually thinks he is playing to win. There is also the problem that asking for a modkill under the condition that a player is a certain alignment puts the mod in a position where they would be unfairly giving out information. I think we should leave all discussion of modkilling to the mods unless he blantantly and unquestionably breaks rules.
Fair enough. I agree it would be a pretty dirty move to ask for a modkill like that (as I indicated in my previous post).
But in that case we might as well just auto vote him to get rid of him, regardless of alignment.
Kush is my most clear townie read. Starting a wagon on d1 is not scummy, rather the opposite. What makes him almost a dead sure townie though, is his way of aggressively pursuing the Cubu wagon even at a point where it was highly likely to succeed. At that point scum would've just sat back and relaxed. Stutter was my #1 suspect d1 (reasons given a million times already) and he has contributing with little to nothing for me to change my view of him being scummy. WeeTee was my #2 suspect at the end of d1 but is getting subbed. It's possible his terrible posts came as a result of a lack of time, I still have a scum lean on him and will keep a close eye on imcasey's posts. Kville snags the spazztard of the day award in the last few hours. Considering he's playing in other maffias games he shouldn't be a complete newbie and he should realize he really needs to get back into this thread and start answering questions and contributing. Since he's not a complete newbie I'm hesitant to apply my policy of giving spazzes the benefit of a doubt, he needs to start posting more and more qualitatively or else he's getting my vote (he's useless anyway).
When looking at yesterday's voting pattern, there's really only one thing that pops up: At one point Cubu placed a vote on Kville to tie it up 2-2. At this point Jacob and Xatalos put down votes on Cubu. If Kville is maffia, it's possible Jacob or Xatalos wanted to push Cubu's wagon to save him. This gives some extra weight behind the case for lynching Kville, as it may give us information on Jacob and Xatalos. If Kville is maffia I highly doubt both Jacob and Xatalos are scum though, so the information we would gain is limited.
The fact that we had so many wagons going came back to bite us in the ass. First, having our votes so spread, it gives maffia a better chance of affecting the outcome. Second, the Cubu wagon started rolling way too fast. He got far ahead and at that point voting pattern analysis is useless, because it's only in a close townie/scum wagon that the scum is put to the test (to save or not to save?).
On September 05 2012 01:03 thrawn2112 wrote: ##FOS Kville
Hasnt he been FoS for everyone? :p
I dont even know what to think of him, but most likely hes trolling.
Though, one thing struck me. The OP says this: Play to win. Isnt Kville pretty much by default.... A) Scum B) Breaking the rule It could even be argued that he is.... C) Both ?
Yeah I think regardless of his alignment he's trolling. Based on how he posted near the voting deadline I was wanting to lynch him and I thought that kush was thinking the same thing as well, but at that point it was too late and not enough people were in the thread. (top of page 17)
So what should we do about it? Trying to get meaningful posts and arguments out of a troll player is just going to result in more trolling so I don't want to spend a lot of time on it during D2 because of the odds. If we lynch him D2 and he's town, then we will be at 6:3 town/scum ratio if the night kill goes through without a save/rb. Policy lynching is ok for D1 but I don't really like it for D2.
Kville, this is why if you are town you need to start participating.
I dont know. We could attempt to lynch him D2 while pleading for a modkill before the vote goes through should he be town. Maybe thats shitty because we basically cant lose, so mafia will be at a disadvantage. But I just cant see how he did not break the rule if hes town.
The problem with asking for a modkill is that there is always the extremely unlikely chance that he is town and actually thinks he is playing to win. There is also the problem that asking for a modkill under the condition that a player is a certain alignment puts the mod in a position where they would be unfairly giving out information. I think we should leave all discussion of modkilling to the mods unless he blantantly and unquestionably breaks rules.
Fair enough. I agree it would be a pretty dirty move to ask for a modkill like that (as I indicated in my previous post).
But in that case we might as well just auto vote him to get rid of him, regardless of alignment.
We need to just chill for awhile. It's still just n1 and we got 48h of d2 before next lynch. If we decide to lynch him already it means scum can feel safe for the entire d2. We should keep our options open and consider other lynching candidates as well. He should definitely be on the list of highly suspected though.
I propose a back up policy-lynch plan on kville D2. All the people that have spoken up about him recently (kreb kush myself and sonic) have all expressed sentiments of at least not wanting him in the game regardless of his alignment. His play is just too strange to make sense from a town perspective.... but if he somehow is town then he's being so purposefully anti-town that lynching him would be the best possible townie-lynch.
If he continues on how he's been playing then I'm going to ignore him so I can focus on getting a solid scumread on someone else. If I'm unable to make a case I'm confident in and nobody else's cases look convincing, then I'm going to ask everyone who is in a similar situation to lynch kville.
Is there anyone that thinks back-up plan lynching kville is a bad idea? I'd like to hear some possible town-motives for his posts or reasons to keep him around because I don't see any. He's definitely not everyone's strongest scumread, but it seems to be the consensus that his play is anti-town townie if not anti-town scum. It'll be similar to a D1 lurker lynch policy, in that we all will have an agreed upon alternative lynch plan if we fail to produce strong reads by the end of the day cycle.
He is my strongest scumread because I see absolutely no town-motives behind his play, but I think we should pursue other cases for the time being because a read on kville is based off of so little information. (7 total posts)
Say so if you agree or disagree, and then set the matter aside unless it needs to be brought up at the end of D2.
On September 05 2012 04:43 thrawn2112 wrote: I propose a back up policy-lynch plan on kville D2. All the people that have spoken up about him recently (kreb kush myself and sonic) have all expressed sentiments of at least not wanting him in the game regardless of his alignment. His play is just too strange to make sense from a town perspective.... but if he somehow is town then he's being so purposefully anti-town that lynching him would be the best possible townie-lynch.
If he continues on how he's been playing then I'm going to ignore him so I can focus on getting a solid scumread on someone else. If I'm unable to make a case I'm confident in and nobody else's cases look convincing, then I'm going to ask everyone who is in a similar situation to lynch kville.
Is there anyone that thinks back-up plan lynching kville is a bad idea? I'd like to hear some possible town-motives for his posts or reasons to keep him around because I don't see any. He's definitely not everyone's strongest scumread, but it seems to be the consensus that his play is anti-town townie if not anti-town scum. It'll be similar to a D1 lurker lynch policy, in that we all will have an agreed upon alternative lynch plan if we fail to produce strong reads by the end of the day cycle.
He is my strongest scumread because I see absolutely no town-motives behind his play, but I think we should pursue other cases for the time being because a read on kville is based off of so little information. (7 total posts)
Say so if you agree or disagree, and then set the matter aside unless it needs to be brought up at the end of D2.
I think this is the best strat. We keep pressure on scum and we keep pressure on Kville to change strat if he is townie. We don't really lose anything by keeping Kville around and there's a >0 chance he'll start making sense.
If we have no strong reads by the end of day 2 and we then lynch him and he turns out to be a townie then town are in a bad spot as we'll 6-3 with no strong leads and having let scum avoid suspicion in the lynchvote.
If I am still alive tomorrow, I will be voting for the player who I have the strongest scumread on, and my backup will be voting for someone who I have a less good read on but who is being pushed by people whom I have a townread on and who have made a good case.
Making elaborate schemes beyond that seems silly to me as it just tells scum where to hide to avoid being lynched (which in retrospect was probably our biggest mistake on day 1). So I agree insofar as I think we should set the matter aside
edit: basically everything I said you and sonic have already said - so I am not trying to repost that or claim credit for it - just that, yeah kville looks scummy now, but in 48h I REALLY hope we can either get more on him or find someone who looks even scummier.
I don't think this is a particularly bad policy, don't know that it's going to help kville's attitude, but that seems to be just a bonus if it does. I think it might be a good idea to all actually vote for kville at the start of tomorrow, anything less and it's just a threat.
You deal with Kville in whatever way you feel comfortable. Personally I'm very likely to vote for him should i survive.
About the other commonly mentioned players: Drazak I think gave a genuine answer to the attack on him. It wasnt a particularly good defense in my opinion (which I pointed out), but I got the feeling it was more of an inexperienced townie defense. WeeTee/imcasey: no comments yet. I do think the strongest case we have on anyone apart from Kville is Stutters. No need to repeat whats been said about him again, but I do largely agree on the accusations on him. Should Kville turn out not to be a good option, I'm leanign towards Stutters as my secondary target.
Slightly more interesting might be the rest. There is likely at least one mafia hiding among those players. My biggest townreads are Thrawn and Sonic. Thrawn seems genuinely interested in scumhunting, asks relevant questions and posts relevant opinions. Sonic got towncred for his questioning of Cubu, I've explained my reasoning there before. I'd also say I think Jacob looks like a townie to me at the moment, though maybe not as clearly as Thrawn and Sonic.
My biggest mafia-read on the remaining players would be Xatalos. I think he came into the thread posting with descent activity initially. But eventually it his activity kinda went down, his vote on Cubu didnt convince me of anything, and I still havent forgotten how he commended Kush on Kushs initial jump on me (which was largely agreed on was not justified). Im not sure why someone would consider such a post to be "very proactive post with good reasoning".
Kush is another interesting topic. His posting went up notably after the initial jump. I'm still not completely conviced hes not trying to mindgame us all with a purposedly unjustified attack. That said, I'm not exactly suspicious of him either, but should I die at least I wish people to keep their eyes open on him.
On kville: I feel like my last post made my thoughts on him pretty clear. If you want a more in depth explanation of my read on him, look here.
My strongest town read right now is kush. His tendancy to jump to conclusions matches with how I saw him play town in our last game. It's only 1 game of course but in the meta department I gotta assign him some town points. I also felt like his vote on cubu was genuine. Misguided, but genuine. He's also one of the more active when it comes to scumhunting.
Scum read: Out of all the lurkers, (exluding kville because nobody knew wtf to think about him) stutters was the one I thought was the scummiest. You can find reasons why in the last paragraph of this post, and in the big paragraph in this post. It's also worth pointing out that he hasn't posted in over 24 hrs as of now, and he's the only one who hasn't posted during the night cycle. My main motivation for considering him as a lynch candidate was because of how we all agreed to follow the lurker policy, and I thought he was the scummiest lurker. After the lynch I was willing to reconsider my read on him in favor of looking at the more active players, but that was under the condition that he starts contributing/scumhunting which he hasn't done.
There are a couple of posts that caught my attention.
On September 02 2012 10:18 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Alright fellow townies, one post before I go to bed, it's 3am over here.
Make sure to read the maffia guide thread if you haven't, it's really good. Try to make concise posts and think 'em through before posting, the last thing we need is added confusion.
We also need transparency, so try to contribute with at least one post per game day where you clearly explain your reasoning behind your most solid reads. If everyone does this, the mobsters will have to too.
And blue roles, with great power comes great responsibility, so please don't do stupid shit just because you can :p
Finally, keep in mind: if you're a vanilla townie, death by NK is a great honor and the best possible outcome for the group as a whole.
Goodnight and see ya tomorrow.
This post is extremely fluffy, even for the first post of the thread. Just look at the bolded part: there's nothing of value in all that. No opinions, no reasoning, no stances on anything... Nothing. Everything in this post screams classic Mafia pseudo-active "posting for the sake of posting". Then there's this:
On September 02 2012 16:58 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Not only is a no-lynch bad, it's impossible. Read the rules.
Also, yeah, lynching active d1 posters is usually bad, especially in newbie games. Townies are usually a lot more comfortable with their role. Ime this leads the townies to post more and also say more stupid stuff. The town latches on to someone who said something stupid and we have a mislynch.
On the other hand mobsters are more careful with what they say because they don't want to slip up and get noticed. I'm mostly suspicious of semi-active posters who post nothing but fluff.
The bolded part here is something I agree with, but on the other hand, it fits Sonic Death Monkey himself quite well... His filter seems like the most semi-active and fluffy at the moment. Sonic Death Monkey, do you see anyone more suspicious than yourself (by your own standards) right now? If so, who and why?
On September 02 2012 17:53 Kreb wrote: First: GLHF everyone!
Morning everyone, this thread got started nicely overnight it seems. About D1 lynching, from what I've guessed so far its indeed a good idea to lynch lurkers. Obviously the chance of getting a scum right on the first day is limited, but generally it keeps the discussion going. You're also not necessarily sacrificing someone important if you're lynching an inactive townie either. Overall it seems like the best of all the options.
Gonna have a look through some peoples posting histories later on when we get closer to the deadline and more people has posted to see if theres any chance to find hte slightest read on who could be a scum.
(Im gonna have to get used to not editing posts too :p Im way too used doing that!)
This is another way of saying "I'm going to wait for a bandwagon to form and then jump on it close to the deadline". Things like that set my Mafia alarms ringing immediately - especially since the rest of that post is just extremely wishy-washy and fluffy non-content... Kreb, if you want to convince me you're not Mafia, then who do you think is Mafia and why?
On September 02 2012 12:24 kushm4sta wrote: Are people ok with NOT lynching anyone first night or is this generally thought of as bad play? Because honestly it seems impossible to have a good idea of who is mafia by then. Last game everyone was like we NEED to lynch someone, and we ended up lynching WeeTee, an innocent! I love all my townies and I don't want to kill any.
At first I thought kushm4sta looked suspicious, but in the end, I really doubt Mafia would go on such a rampage of careless posts - they would much rather hide and wait for good opportunities. Then there's this post that he just posted:
On September 02 2012 18:45 kushm4sta wrote: ##vote kreb Post is really empty. If no one else comes along in 36ish hours I would be down with lynching him. Really premature vote, I know but I'm going to sleep for like 15 hours so it's going to be a while.
On September 02 2012 17:53 Kreb wrote: About D1 lynching, from what I've guessed so far its indeed a good idea to lynch lurkers.
Then he uses 3 sentences to explain why lurkers are bad even though they are not necessarily mafia, a completely obvious idea. So his whole lurker policy is "it's a good idea to lynch lurkers." I have news for you kreb, a total lurker will be modkilled since you have to post at least once a day. The most lurkerish person we have to deal with is 1 post a day. Speaking of 1 post a day,
Gonna have a look through some peoples posting histories later on when we get closer to the deadline and more people has posted to see if theres any chance to find hte slightest read on who could be a scum.
You do realize the deadline is very far? A day is 48 hours not 24. Damn guys town is fine. In 30 hours Kreb is going to check SOME filters for a CHANCE to find the SLIGHTEST read.
A very proactive post with good reasoning. kushm4sta is looking strongly town to me at the moment.
You quote sonic, bolded his entire post and accuse him of being fluffy. You want him to tell you who he thinks is mafia and why. Well why don't you follow your own advice? Then you basically repeat my argument against krebs, and again use the phrase
if you want to convince me you're not Mafia, then who do you think is Mafia and why?
Then you call my post
a very proactive post with good reasoning
. Well if you like posts like that, ie making cases against people, then why don't you do it yourself? Also I disagree. My post kind of sucked.
On September 02 2012 19:08 Xatalos wrote: There are a couple of posts that caught my attention.
On September 02 2012 10:18 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Alright fellow townies, one post before I go to bed, it's 3am over here.
Make sure to read the maffia guide thread if you haven't, it's really good. Try to make concise posts and think 'em through before posting, the last thing we need is added confusion.
We also need transparency, so try to contribute with at least one post per game day where you clearly explain your reasoning behind your most solid reads. If everyone does this, the mobsters will have to too.
And blue roles, with great power comes great responsibility, so please don't do stupid shit just because you can :p
Finally, keep in mind: if you're a vanilla townie, death by NK is a great honor and the best possible outcome for the group as a whole.
Goodnight and see ya tomorrow.
This post is extremely fluffy, even for the first post of the thread. Just look at the bolded part: there's nothing of value in all that. No opinions, no reasoning, no stances on anything... Nothing. Everything in this post screams classic Mafia pseudo-active "posting for the sake of posting".
Since this is a newbie game I think the basics needs to be pointed out asap before we move on. We just need to keep calm and make well thought-out posts, that way it'll be much more difficult for the scum to kick up shitstorms over nothing to get the town distracted. I've followed a few newbie games and the first couple of days the townies are usually too busy throwing around random accusations and lynching other townies to get any productive work going.
On September 02 2012 16:58 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Not only is a no-lynch bad, it's impossible. Read the rules.
Also, yeah, lynching active d1 posters is usually bad, especially in newbie games. Townies are usually a lot more comfortable with their role. Ime this leads the townies to post more and also say more stupid stuff. The town latches on to someone who said something stupid and we have a mislynch.
On the other hand mobsters are more careful with what they say because they don't want to slip up and get noticed. I'm mostly suspicious of semi-active posters who post nothing but fluff.
The bolded part here is something I agree with, but on the other hand, it fits Sonic Death Monkey himself quite well... His filter seems like the most semi-active and fluffy at the moment. Sonic Death Monkey, do you see anyone more suspicious than yourself (by your own standards) right now? If so, who and why?
Fair enough. I think that description fits basically anyone within the first 10-20 post of the thread though. Once the discussion gets going, like it's starting to now, we'll see which posters are ducking and which ones are actually contributing.
As for your question, I think it's easier to find people standing out as likely townies at this point. In my experience, people engaging in discussions and poo-flinging early game are less likely to be scum. For this reason, I'll give some townie points to kush and thrawn. Thrawn also seems to be a productive and solid contributor. It'll be hard for him to keep up with that if he's really scum, so some extra townie points for him.
When it comes to scum, I'm really suspicious of people who just pop in to make a fluffy post and then disappear. For now, Kreb and KillingTime seems to fit that bill.
It's good to see some content from you (I agree with your point about thrawn2112), but the bolded part here is just... weak. Okay, Kreb and KillingTime have done basically nothing so far. But the same applies to Cubu, WeeTee and drazak. Why do you think Kreb and KillingTime are scummy but players like Cubu, WeeTee or drazak are not? Show some reasoning, not just a basic statement.
(As a sidenote, the above mentioned lurkers + Kville should really start posting some more, or it's going to be much more difficult to identify the Mafia lurkers.)
The bolded part of sonic's post is "just...weak." Well to me calling something just...weak is pretty weak in itself.
Why do you think Kreb and KillingTime are scummy but players like Cubu, WeeTee or drazak are not? Show some reasoning, not just a basic statement.
Again you are urging people to scumhunt, yet you are not.
Next post you ride my dick some more, calling me town, saying that my read on kreb is strong.
Ok then without even giving an argument you bandwagon on cubu. Third person to join the kush lynch wagon btw. Third is a suspicious number.
I find it hard to believe that kville would actually be Mafia. Most of the time Mafia are semi-lurkers with fluffy and careful posts, but kville has done literally nothing so far. It's an extreme risk for Mafia, especially since the overall atmosphere is so anti-lurker. We would lose nothing of value by lynching him, but more likely we'd just hit town and proceed to Day 2 with no new information.
I also don't think drazak is Mafia. The typical reaction for pressured Mafia is to get angry, aggressive or desperate, but in my eyes, he has tried to be genuinely helpful - giving away a lot of unnecessary information in case he actually was Mafia. The somewhat frustrated tone in his posts also points more to town than Mafia.
Sonic Death Monkey and Kreb looked pretty suspicious based on their first (really fluffy) posts, but their later posts have been much better. I'm willing to wait and see some more from them before I can make a judgement.
The ones I'm willing to lynch right now are Cubu, WeeTee and Stutters695. Cubu has posted only fluff, a slight suspicion of drazak and several suggestions to lynch a lurker. All very easy and careful things to say - things that Mafia would like to say in order to blend in and avoid unnecessary attention. WeeTee's first post is pure fluff and the next one is pretty wishy-washy and non-committing. The filter of Stutters695 is full of fluff and non-committing stances.
I'm in bit of a hurry already, so I'm going to vote for Cubu. I might be able to come back online a bit later, but not anymore closer to the deadline :/
##Vote Cubu
Why do you vote for cubu? Well your reasoning, in full, is here:
Cubu has posted only fluff, a slight suspicion of drazak and several suggestions to lynch a lurker. All very easy and careful things to say - things that Mafia would like to say in order to blend in and avoid unnecessary attention
And that's pretty much the extent of your scumhunt. Pretty long post, but you only use a sentence of it to justify your vote! I understand if you are busy doing pushups for the military or something, but it's not your inactivity that bothers me. Rather, it's what you choose to do with your limited number of posts: telling other people to scumhunt rather than doing it yourself, and bandwagoning instead.
Kush I think you're understating how much scumhunting Xalos has done. That first post you quoted contains quite a lot of scumhunting actually. You say that he's not following his own advice but I think the fact that he made that post is a point in his favor. He calls out a lot of things that he thought looked strange about sonic and clearly a lot of effort went into the post.
What I'd agree on you with though are your comments on his cubu vote. That's one of the shortest explanations for a vote I've ever seen, and sonic pointed this out earlier:
On September 05 2012 04:02 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:When looking at yesterday's voting pattern, there's really only one thing that pops up: At one point Cubu placed a vote on Kville to tie it up 2-2. At this point Jacob and Xatalos put down votes on Cubu. If Kville is maffia, it's possible Jacob or Xatalos wanted to push Cubu's wagon to save him. This gives some extra weight behind the case for lynching Kville, as it may give us information on Jacob and Xatalos. If Kville is maffia I highly doubt both Jacob and Xatalos are scum though, so the information we would gain is limited.
I want to avoid making association reads if possible so I don't think the "if kville mafia then xatalos or jacob mafia" is a very strong argument to make until we have absolute confirmation of kville's alignment. However I don't even think kville's alignment needs to be brought into discussion. I think it is extremely likely that at least one mafia voted for cubu. Xatalos's reasoning for voting cubu was extremely weak. That is enough to make his vote look scummy. Other people that had weak cubu votes were killingtime and WeeTee. In the case of Weetee I'm going to reserve judgment until his replacement starts posting. So in summary, to me it looks like xatalos's vote was most disingenuous, with killingtime as a close runner up. Go through the filters of the people who voted for cubu and ctrl+f search for posts about "cubu" made before the lynch and you'll clearly see that killingtime and xatalos were less involved with the case than the other voters.
Gonna wait to see xatalos's response, and in the meantime I'm going to look at killing's filter.
Ahh! Kreb I am glad you went back to xatalos. I was initialy going to ask you why you dropped the issue. But it seems it is back. Just woke up so give me time to get my head straight. (if I live) and I will start posting again.
Luanne:Once upon a time, almost two thousands of years ago, our Lord and Saviour Jesus Christ was born. In a manger. And in that manger lived the cutest little animals. This is their story. (singing) After Jesus left, King Herod came Demanding first-born sons. He cast an evil spell on them, Freezing everyone. Just lately I bought a Nativity scene At a yard sale second-hand. They came to life and then, amen! I met the Manger Babies! There's Obadiah the donkey -- he says "Eee-yaa!" Hosea the cat -- "Meow meow!" An octopus too -- "Gurgle gurgle!" And let's not forget a very British bird, Sir Reginald Featherbottom the Third. "Charmed, I'm sure, guv'nor." They are the Manger Babies, getting in trouble, Manger Babies, spreading God's message of love, Manger Babies... MANGER BABIES!
Luanne: If God doesn't get here soon, we're all gonna die! Maybe it's best that we do die. Who wants to live in a world without God?
God never showed up. He was watching the Super Bowl.
That's dissapointing though, he was going to look through killings filter... gg thrawn, your death shall not be in vain. But we can assume they killed him before he mentioned Killing and Xatalos. Not sure if we can get anything out of this.
On September 05 2012 10:27 drazak wrote: If we have a medic, while he was a good town read I'm not sure if a medic would save him or another strong town read.
Yeah but he was confirmed town AND the town's best poster...obvious medic save IMO. Maybe we should lynch stutters just to honor his memory lol..
On September 05 2012 10:38 drazak wrote: Not to demean his memory, but he could have been good mafia convincing us he was town and trying to lead us into bad lynches.
huh? he was a vanilla townie it says so in the mod post
I'm saying from a medic's point of view, I wasn't sure about him myself. Obviously he WAS town, but he had a lot of town power which isn't always a good thing.
I'm in extreme hurry right now, but some comments on the recent events...
Farewell thrawn2112, you will be missed :/ Can't say I'm too surprised about the night kill, though.
kushm4sta, you're severely underestimating my contributions. At the moment I have a pretty good case against Sonic Death Monkey and WeeTee (imcasey), and although the case against Sonic Death Monkey is a bit outdated, the case against WeeTee (imcasey) is quite good IMO. At least I think it's much stronger than the policy lynching of kville or the suspicions toward Stutters695. I agree that I could have been more active so far, but when I look at my own filter, I've scumhunted and/or pushed the discussion forward in every post. Much more than can be said about most players so far.
Now I have to leave, but I'll be able to post again later today. My vote is going for imcasey, as I previously reasoned. I'll be looking at each player's filters later today, though.
##Vote imcasey
(Btw, my vote for Cubu was in real hurry as well, so I indeed should have reasoned it better, but I just had no time. I'll get back to it later!)
Wait so both killling and Xatalos were going at weetee/imcasey? *cough* doesn't this sound right. Considering according to thrawn (confirmed town now) both had week reasoning for cubu and Xatalos was defending killing in a non committal way at one point(not much but...) Sonic case is so out of date though. Even I stopped harassing him as I ended up at least partially satisfied.
I would look at the Xatalos/Killing filters if I were you. They both seem to be starting a bandwagon. Xatalos starts it and then killing jumps on. I agree policy lynch on kville/stutters might be a problem considering the place it would leave us in.(if they flip town) That said I want to know more about you guys (kville and stutters) go out there say stuff. You are likely to get lynched before these guys so try and help us out. Also you would think he would wait for imcasey to start posting. I could be wrong so anyone feel free to point out any illogic here.
Also if We lynch weetee/imcasey and he flips green we would probably turn to stutters or kville. If one of those is mafia (bussed or get the town{if one of them is town}) then it's almost a surely a mafia win.
On September 04 2012 03:01 kushm4sta wrote: Why town should all vote for cuba
Worst case scenario:he flips green No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.
Best case scenario: he is mafia If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game. People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn. People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn. Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else. Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?
We need three more votes on cuba.
I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches.
Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush.
On September 04 2012 03:01 kushm4sta wrote: Why town should all vote for cuba
Worst case scenario:he flips green No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.
Best case scenario: he is mafia If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game. People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn. People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn. Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else. Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?
We need three more votes on cuba.
I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches.
Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush.
##Vote Kushm4sta
Well this does bring an interesting side to it. While what he said makes sense, the benifit we would gain from confirmed town was lost when that confirmed town died. Also Kush is going for Xatalos, now. (which I partly agree with) also xatalos (and myself) did go on the cuba wagon when it was tied up. So my theory that Killing Xatalos having a gamble scum (kville or stutters) could be correct. But then does that make Kush innocent? Also we lost the two that were going for drazak, so is drazak scum protecting himself with NK and lynch? (information over load). He goes for kush when kush goes at Xataos. Is he the third scum, and kiville a spazzy town, along with stutters? There is just to many possibilitys it's annoying.
Thrawn was like town leader and now he is gone. We need to do is come up with a plan for day 2 so we can as a town stay focused. We do NOT want to all be accusing different people. That is what mafia wants. We do not want to be discussing things that do not contribute to the scum hunt. Anyone have an idea for a day 2 town plan to help us?
In the next post I will discuss this recent drazak vote for me.
On September 04 2012 03:01 kushm4sta wrote: Why town should all vote for cuba
Worst case scenario:he flips green No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.
Best case scenario: he is mafia If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game. People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn. People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn. Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else. Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?
We need three more votes on cuba.
I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches.
Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush.
##Vote Kushm4sta
Well this does bring an interesting side to it. While what he said makes sense, the benifit we would gain from confirmed town was lost when that confirmed town died. Also Kush is going for Xatalos, now. (which I partly agree with) also xatalos (and myself) did go on the cuba wagon when it was tied up. So my theory that Killing Xatalos having a gamble scum (kville or stutters) could be correct. But then does that make Kush innocent? Also we lost the two that were going for drazak, so is drazak scum protecting himself with NK and lynch? (information over load). He goes for kush when kush goes at Xataos. Is he the third scum, and kiville a spazzy town, along with stutters? There is just to many possibilitys it's annoying.
Answer my questions, kushm4sta. I'm not accusing random people, I'm basing an accusation on fact. This is how you find things out in mafia. Trying to throw my suspiscions away like that is VERY mafia like. You're not making the case for yourself any better Kush.
On September 04 2012 03:01 kushm4sta wrote: Why town should all vote for cuba
Worst case scenario:he flips green No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.
Best case scenario: he is mafia If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game. People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn. People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn. Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else. Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?
We need three more votes on cuba.
I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches.
Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush.
##Vote Kushm4sta
I pushed the cubu vote because 1)he was a bad poster/lurker and it worked as a policy lynch if nothing else 2)how he turned revealed a lot about thrawn, who i assumed medic or jb would save because he was the obvious choice in my mind I thought it was very fishy that thrawn tried to redirect twice, and so I got very excited with the prospect of identifying two mafia in the first day. Also at the time I thought, as did thrawn, that kville was going to be replaced. So that's why I called him the worst townie. Now it's clear that honor belongs to kville.
Also jacob I don't get how this is a good argument? It's reasoning is only one sentence:
Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie.
I think he means that then thrawn would be mafia, but right now that sentence, which is his ONLY argumentation, makes no sense.
Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town?
I didn't think anyone else seemed more scumlike than he did. Although I did know that was a big chance of him not being scum. See, drazzy darling, when there are a ton of lurkers/terrible townies in the game like yourself, it makes it pretty fucking hard to win as town.
And my last defense of myself is to invoke the holy name of the late thrawn, who, on the night of his untimely death, proclaimed me as his biggest town read. Read his defense of me because I'm sure it's better than anything I could do. REST IN PEACE THRAWN TT
Not to OMGUS, but this actually makes drazak seem quite suspicious to me. Mostly because I am the most active poster now that thrawn is gone. Maybe I'm biased about the matter but what do other people think? I will look through his filter more tomorrow.
On September 05 2012 13:06 drazak wrote: Answer my questions, kushm4sta. I'm not accusing random people, I'm basing an accusation on fact. This is how you find things out in mafia. Trying to throw my suspiscions away like that is VERY mafia like. You're not making the case for yourself any better Kush.
You didn't give me time to address your "argument." Also that post on town plan, if that's what you are talking about, had nothing to do with you.
So, you weren't actually scum hunting, why weren't you scum hunting? Couldn't figure out who to lynch and actually make a good case for because you're mafia? Just because thrawn called you town doesn't make you town.
For the record, town doesn't need a leader, a leader can hurt a town more than help, if the leader is mafia, we're all fucked. Saying that you're the most active doesn't actually make you town. We agreed that the only deciding factor is that being too lurker-ish is scummy. Active does not equate to town.
Accusing me because I'm accusing you is a very bad idea, that's like, the #1 worse scum defense. So tell me, with logical terms, good reasons, and actual evidence, who your best two scum reads are?
I have to admit it's doesn't make a lot of sence it just adds more to the party. What I was saying is what you said makes sence.. in a game right now but wanted to clear this up
I am supposed to be studying and then having dinner and such so I will be back properly after that. (more than just short posts) But things I would like to see happen is Stutters kville posting more and xatos and Killing discussing each other.
Iv tried reading myself up on all the threads, having a hard time catching up aswell as reading the rules/guides as this is my first time and its a lot to understand. From what iv seen so far my first thoughts are to have a close eye on kushm4sta, atleast thats what im focusing on right now. It seems for me like he is throwing around votes and randomly acuses people.
First he dont want a lynch on D1 Then he really suspects thrawn2112 Going on with voting for kreb Changes his mind and unvote kreb Votes for Cubu instead Saying he do want a lynch for D1 afterall
I will continue reading and respond the next hours
For that reason, I sadly dont really think theres much to gain from that. I mean, likely the only reason I would not wanna vote for him as mafia would be because it would be such an "obvious" JK/Medic target. But enough of that.
I've got a bunch of questions though: To me, that main target is still Kville (with Stutters second). Me and Thrawn had a bit of a lengthy discussion about what do. Thrawn suggested a backup-plan lynch on Kville, but only really Sonic, KillingTime and Drazak chimed in.
Broad question: Is there really no one else who feel they want to add something regarding Kville? Surely there must be more opinions on him.
To KillingTime: You did agree to what Thrawn suggested. But in a veeeeeery broad and almost reluctact (?) way.
If I am still alive tomorrow, I will be voting for the player who I have the strongest scumread on, and my backup will be voting for someone who I have a less good read on but who is being pushed by people whom I have a townread on and who have made a good case.
Why wouldnt you reveal your townreads then? Thats like the most general wording ever "I will trust people who I have townreads on". No shit? So care to elaborate on what townreads you have? And dont you have any reads yourself or are you just gonna blindly follow your owntownreads?
To imcasey: Whats your take on Kville? And any opinion of Stutters (go back a few pages, right after D1 lynch to find the case on him)? Any townreads so far? WeeTee wasnt really contributing much at all, but I think its time you start too.
To Stutters: Still not a word since the D1 lynch. Maybe luckily for you, Kville is causing more attention to be drawn to him. But you really seem to like defending yourself with silence over actualy contribution. Come on, show us some opinions, mafia-read, townreads.
Dont really see the point of asking Kville anything, but yea, feel free to actually jump into the discussion if you have something to say.
One more, to Xatalos and Drazak: Since you both voted early. Why would you consider your current votes to be more likely mafia than Kville and maybe also Stutters?
I thought we were just kinda leaving Kville while discussing other reads in parallell, but with votes coming already, you must have a reason to not vote on the two most talked about targets?
@Kreb: I would consider kush & sonic (who i suspect d1 but for weak reasons and who has played well since then) to be the most town players at the moment, with Kreb & drazak someway behind them. They are all active and seem to be trying to help town. But many of them seem to be abit at loggerheads so I want to go through filters this afternoon and see whether I still agree with these reads.
I agree my post last night was broad/reluctant. That is because I broadly agree about kville, but really hope we can do better because even if kville is mafia he is the weakest member of the mafia as well in terms of finding the whole mafia team.
In terms of those I am suspicious of at the moment:
Weetee/imcasey - No change since my last post when I said they were null for the moment (perhaps jacob did not read that post?) and that the need for replacement might have explained what I found scummy about them, but that I would be watching closely. I am not sure how this can be seen as “bandwagoning with xtalos” as Jacob has suggested. If you look at Xatalos’s vote he voted for Cubu early, when I was still voting for wetee.. which hardly seems like bandwagon activity to me.
Jacob - I am trying hard to be objective about you and not fall into an OMGUS trap just because you are pushing me. But, I really dislike your play-style, posts like this one:
Well this does bring an interesting side to it. While what he said makes sense, the benifit we would gain from confirmed town was lost when that confirmed town died. Also Kush is going for Xatalos, now. (which I partly agree with) also xatalos (and myself) did go on the cuba wagon when it was tied up. So my theory that Killing Xatalos having a gamble scum (kville or stutters) could be correct. But then does that make Kush innocent? Also we lost the two that were going for drazak, so is drazak scum protecting himself with NK and lynch? (information over load). He goes for kush when kush goes at Xataos. Is he the third scum, and kiville a spazzy town, along with stutters? There is just to many possibilitys it's annoying.
seem to be designed just to confuse townies while saying almost nothing of value. At this point in the game town has very little information, so we can dream up any number of scenarios to second guess the mafia actions, I don’t think that kind of theorycrafting will help us catch scum.
Your current argument seems to be that Xatalos & I are/were attempting to bus weetee/imcasey because I was more suspicious of him (unknown alignment) over cubu (confirmed town) on d1. I find this argument hard to understand and it seems more driven by your suspicions/attempts to smear me.
Xatalos - I don't know what to make of the fact that jacob is pushing him alongside me. But, I would like him to explain why he thinks that Stutters695 is a much weaker case than imcasey, given that the need to be replaced seems to count in Weetees/imcaseys favour but not in his on d1 and there has been little from either of them on d2.
Kville/Stutters - yep these two guys exist, not much more you can say about either unless stutters decides to be helpful (I have no hope with kville)
On September 05 2012 16:23 Kreb wrote: To imcasey: Whats your take on Kville? And any opinion of Stutters (go back a few pages, right after D1 lynch to find the case on him)? Any townreads so far? WeeTee wasnt really contributing much at all, but I think its time you start too.
Kville Im not sure what to think, for sure he do not contribute much, his post are non sense to me, voting for himself.. I dont know, either he is plain stupid/trolling, or he plays the game really well, atleast it looks so for me without any experience.
Stutters seems to have good post, spent time on analyzing/writing them, i think he got good content in his post, definitely not a vote candidate as i see it.
I willl read trough the thread again but only focusing on townreads and post with any content in it, hoping that all the wishwash post dont make me lose alot of focus. I would like to here your opinion on kushm4sta though
No you have that completly wrong, I was more thinking you would town lynch WeeTee and then bus or town lynch whoever town disliked most out of Stutters kville. I know I am pushing you but it's mainly so I have more information. You are the only one I can force to talk at the moment as kville and Stutters seem like hopless cases.
That kind of theory crafting is how my head works... I might just keep it to myself though and only post my stronger theory crafting I guess...
I guess a more easy to understand method without including you and xatalos would be..
Kush is getting pushed on by Darzak who had both the people against him lynched. This makes it more likely that he is scum than kush is but we shouldn't fall into the trap if thinking kush is confirmed town just because thrawn thought so.
And by forcing you to explain things you might either slip up or become townish. I am currently less suspicious of you as a result. But I should probably look into the Kush/Drazak situation more and leave you be for the moment.
On September 05 2012 17:57 KillingTime wrote: @Kreb: I would consider kush & sonic (who i suspect d1 but for weak reasons and who has played well since then) to be the most town players at the moment, with Kreb & drazak someway behind them. They are all active and seem to be trying to help town. But many of them seem to be abit at loggerheads so I want to go through filters this afternoon and see whether I still agree with these reads.
I agree my post last night was broad/reluctant. That is because I broadly agree about kville, but really hope we can do better because even if kville is mafia he is the weakest member of the mafia as well in terms of finding the whole mafia team.
Fair enough. I see your argument but I dont agree. I we leave Kville and mislynch AGAIN (which seems much more likely should we not vote Kville), we'll be in a pretty bad spot. And finally getting a confirm on Kville being mafia means we can look back at how people responded to the accusations of him. Kville flipping town is almost unthinkable to me since I really dont see how he would be following the "play to win" rule then.
On September 05 2012 18:08 imcasey wrote: I willl read trough the thread again but only focusing on townreads and post with any content in it, hoping that all the wishwash post dont make me lose alot of focus. I would like to here your opinion on kushm4sta though
Not much other than what I posted in my pre-night1-kill post. Im not really suspicious of him, but not as convinced as a few others seem to be either. But with 10 players left (9 not including myself), I would put him around maybe 5th-6th on the list of my most likely mafia players. In short, unless something new comes up you wont see me voting for him or agreeing with any bandwagon on him.
On September 05 2012 11:48 JacobStrangelove wrote: Wait so both killling and Xatalos were going at weetee/imcasey? *cough* doesn't this sound right. Considering according to thrawn (confirmed town now) both had week reasoning for cubu and Xatalos was defending killing in a non committal way at one point(not much but...) Sonic case is so out of date though. Even I stopped harassing him as I ended up at least partially satisfied.
I would look at the Xatalos/Killing filters if I were you. They both seem to be starting a bandwagon. Xatalos starts it and then killing jumps on. I agree policy lynch on kville/stutters might be a problem considering the place it would leave us in.(if they flip town) That said I want to know more about you guys (kville and stutters) go out there say stuff. You are likely to get lynched before these guys so try and help us out. Also you would think he would wait for imcasey to start posting. I could be wrong so anyone feel free to point out any illogic here.
Bolded: If you were who? A townie? Do some work instead of trying to have others being the ones putting their life on the line. You really seem like a poster being on the outside looking in, you insinuate Xatalos and Killing are scummy and try to get others to make the work for you so that they can get into trouble if wrong.
On September 04 2012 22:42 JacobStrangelove wrote: Ok, So due to motivation stutters is likely to be scum. But I would like some answers out of Killing as to what he is thinking right now. Your only real strong read as the game went on was WeeTee but considering he didn't have time and had to leave the thread it is likely he is town without time. (now ImCasey)
So what do you think now? I have been ranting at you for a while (maybe misguided) but you could give me something to go on. You also mention that it is
Jacob, I did not find your response to me very helpful, it was clearly contradictory for you to say that my reads were very/too safe and then give the "reads" that you did.
You would think you could come up with something better than that? When people accuse me of things I list reasons why it's illogical and such. You seem to be hiding under short posts now.
On September 04 2012 03:01 kushm4sta wrote: Why town should all vote for cuba
Worst case scenario:he flips green No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.
Best case scenario: he is mafia If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game. People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn. People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn. Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else. Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?
We need three more votes on cuba.
I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches.
Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush.
##Vote Kushm4sta
Well this does bring an interesting side to it. While what he said makes sense, the benifit we would gain from confirmed town was lost when that confirmed town died. Also Kush is going for Xatalos, now. (which I partly agree with) also xatalos (and myself) did go on the cuba wagon when it was tied up. So my theory that Killing Xatalos having a gamble scum (kville or stutters) could be correct. But then does that make Kush innocent? Also we lost the two that were going for drazak, so is drazak scum protecting himself with NK and lynch? (information over load). He goes for kush when kush goes at Xataos. Is he the third scum, and kiville a spazzy town, along with stutters? There is just to many possibilitys it's annoying.
Once again just latching onto someone else’s analysis, but then explain you won’t take a stance because “There is just to many possibilitys it's annoying”.
Even when you post your reads it’s all very non-confrontational, except when it comes to Cubu (it’s also worth noting that your reasoning for voting Cubu is weak). You really tries to keep all your options open:
On September 03 2012 21:33 JacobStrangelove wrote: Yeah, I am back. Tired but back. I will likely vote before bed as I am unlikely to be awake. So lists or no lists xD (not going to start that again as sonic said not a big deal) At the moment all the focus is on Kville Drazak and Cubu. So a list of three is appropriate.
Kville I find hard to believe would be mafia. Posting twice? Could be a great bluff strategy but honestly I think he got into the game and thought. Ahh who cares. That said he isn’t useful in the game unlike Drazak. Although apparently his previous activity was high in other mafias. I haven’t got time to check that and it was coming from Drazak but interesting to consider.
Drazak: I maybe biased towards the one person who thinks I am town but he seems more like a mildly scared town (as opposed to a really scared mafia see Cubu) Most of it is vibe based however as he said if we lynch him we have less to go on than if we don’t. So leaving him in the game at least temporarily is more useful So I would vote (and probably will before bed unless a good argument comes up) Cubu first.
Cubu: Need I say more? Could be a scared town but he reacted so horribly. Most likely an inexperienced mafia.
Oh and about WeeTee. I would be hesitant to lynch him because his game activity last game was similar and he got lynched as town.
So I will probably vote Cubu, Kville, Drazak. Unless one of the others or cubu comes in with a perfect argument I don’t see this changing much.
I gave your non-confrontational style a pass early d1, but at this point there are no excuses and you laying this low definitely comes off as scummy to me. Regarding you Cubu vote, just throwing random ideas out there and sees what sticks:
On September 03 2012 22:53 JacobStrangelove wrote: Vote count is in the other thread I think. But Cubu or kville? Both of the at risk voted kville most likely as a "I want to survive" tactic. But also reasoning behind it.
Also what about stutters? I forgot him, in what ever case the more information argument comes in. Stutters as provided something more than both. So more likely to have more to work with day two. I'll watch a movie and be back, need time to think about it.
Your only post wrt Cubu with some kind of substance is this:
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers?
Lynching the lurkers who have posted completly nothing is 50-50 could be bored town could be terrified mafia or terrified town you never know. You however are lurking (only one post longer than one line and that post is just statistics) and if you read what I wrote. I explain why you are a better choice. (than kville who I assume you are reffering to{but also not pick a lurker to lynch!})
You are not being decisive (you say lynch the lurkers.) What lurkers? Do you not want to be connected to the lynch? Sounds like scum to me.
You have plenty of time to prove me wrong though. While lynching active members is more 25% chance or whatever (not going to go into the maths) you aren't exactly what I would call active. So in lynching you we ARE lynching a lurker.
But it’s still wishy-washy and poorly reasoned. I don’t even get bolded part. Would you please also explain your Killing/Xatalos connection theory more concisely? I don’t see how it’d make sense, it's just you latching onto thrawns analysis that both had poor reasonings for voting on Cubu (and you insinuating that both of them voting WeeTee somehow would make them a pair of scum?)
Yeah we need to avoid a mislynch for sure. If he is breaking the play to win rule then there is nothing we can really do. (he would only be breaking it as town as this could be a mafia strat) Kush is so much like his town meta though, this said his meta is almost designed to be both town or mafia. I wouldn't vote kush right now because there is a less likely chance he is mafia and sonic seems to be fine for the moment (haven't spotted anything).
Like we said before Kville is the back up lynch if we can't get a for sure lynch. This is why I am trying to put the pressure on other people in hope of a slip. We still have plenty of time in the day though.
I also like the Xatalos case last night was well made. He's been flying under the radar for far too long and we need to put some heat on him. He's not just posting infrequently, but fluffy. I remember thinking his first contributions were decent and it helped getting the thread started, but kick-starting the thread just to follow it up by laying low is scummy. After that he's mostly been fluffy.
Best wagons: Stutters Xatalos Jacob (Kville is a back-up)
Town read: Still just Kush, but I need to catch up on the latest contributions to the thread. We need to put more focus into clearing townies, as it's a great help limiting scum possibilities (big newbie mistake is focusing too hard on just finding scum and I think that's what's going on in this thread atm).
I don't find the case against kush to be strong. I will repeat my earlier arguments:
Starting a wagon d1: Usually gives you too much attention (this game is a case in point) Pursuing that townie Cubu: I think at a 4-2 score where no other wagons had any momentum, he still aggressively pursued Cubu. Going after thrawn: Makes no sense to attack the most trusted townie (those were the accusations right? I still need to go back and reread this part)
All his actions will give him a ton of attention, that’s not very scummy at all.
We've got a lot of work to do in this thread, I will be back later tonight.
I HAVE looked through those filters and because if it I want more people to do the same. It's obvious I am the big one going at killing at least so I am in a spot if he is lynched and flips town. Despite almost nobody thinking he is scum (after his list post day one people all thought he was town{not going to start the lists are easy to hide behind stuff again}) Also I don't think I am latching on to other peoples reads if I am going for killing and Xato. (xato maybe but you must realise almost everyone has been accused so almost everyone thinking the same could be a bandwagon move).
The reason I am putting the pressure on Killing and Xato so much is so they explain what is going on. Assuming you are not mafia the likelyhood of one of them being one is high. So I agree we should put the heat on him that is what I have been trying to do. I haven’t commited to Xato as I am waiting for a response.
Your and thrawns stutters read does make sense... motivation over activity.
Whose analysis was I latching onto there? The only analysis part I latched onto was the first line. From kush going for Xatalos onwards that was all mine. (With exception to the wagon when tired up part) I am confirming parts of other people’s analysis that makes sense.
Also the case against kush isn’t strong, as I said before you (not bad wagoning I promise...) It leaves more reason to Drazak being scum than Kush.
On September 05 2012 18:12 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Kush is getting pushed on by Darzak who had both the people against him lynched. This makes it more likely that he is scum than kush is but we shouldn't fall into the trap if thinking kush is confirmed town just because thrawn thought so.
I probably should point out that part of the reason I had a town read for WeeTee is that I happen to know his style (see his first post where he mentions it’s good to see me) and it reeks of town. With this (although he may have fooled me) I thought Xatatos read of WeeTee when Stutters was available strange. Also with killing he is sceptical of “meta” reads
On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote: My point was that I did not think your town reads added much to the thread, partly because I am very sceptical of "meta" reads at this point given that we all have 3 or less games.
Sure but its more information, that can only be helpful. If WeeTee fits his meta (he does) and he fits the meta I know he is unlikely to be scum. This and the fact that he had to leave due to time problems(although that may have been after my time line is a little messed up) then surely stutters were a better lynch. For this reason I have been thinking that killing is mafia sudo protecting stutters. Since the focus is on me now I need to say The Killing /xatalos thing was simply a hypothesis I was using to draw them out. (It was based on someone else’s analysis yes) It drew out Killing and he responded well. (although it was list like) So I am simply waiting for Xatalos to reenter the thread. If he reenters the thread and doesn’t post good responses I will turn the dogs in my head towards him.
Also as killing said with him changing at this point (making me think he is less scum) about asking why stutters case is weaker than imcasy in xatalos's opinion. So the same thing I used to think strongly about with Killing is applied to xatalos (but I am waiting for the reply)
I'm up. I have to go to class and after I will post a lot but for now let me just try to defend myself against my two attackers.
@ imcasey: I can understand why some of those behaviors you pointed out might look suspicious. Much better case than drazak IMO. Why did I even bring up no vote d1? I admitted immediately after that it was bad play. It's just that d1 lynch always seems to be town, and last game I played in we had no lurkers. That's what lead me to believe at the time that d1 no lynch might be a good idea. This game we have many lurkers, so no lynch day 1 is even more stupid. We have a huge list of people that deserved to be lynch just as policy lynches. Policy lynches is when you lynch someone not because they are mafia but because they blatantly go against town policy and are bad for town. People that fit that description: drazak early d1, stutters early d1, cubu, kville, weetee.
Why did I vote for krebs so early? Because votes are not permanent and I knew that. It was more to get him to talk more since I thought his first post was very suspicious and bad. I am trying to be less impulsive now though.
Then he really suspects thrawn2112
I never really suspected thrawn or thought he did anything suspicious. It's just that his style is to play very carefully, which is sometimes a trait of mafia. Town is reckless, mafia is careful. I think it would be very hard to figure out that he was mafia is he was one, simply because he would be so good at hiding it.
Shite I really have to go to class.. I will defend myself from drazak after, then that's all the defense I will do unless other people bring it up, because honestly I think it's a waste of time and space. But don't bitch me out drazak... I will spend another post defending myself from you.
On September 05 2012 11:24 Xatalos wrote: I'm in extreme hurry right now, but some comments on the recent events...
Farewell thrawn2112, you will be missed :/ Can't say I'm too surprised about the night kill, though.
kushm4sta, you're severely underestimating my contributions. At the moment I have a pretty good case against Sonic Death Monkey and WeeTee (imcasey), and although the case against Sonic Death Monkey is a bit outdated, the case against WeeTee (imcasey) is quite good IMO. At least I think it's much stronger than the policy lynching of kville or the suspicions toward Stutters695. I agree that I could have been more active so far, but when I look at my own filter, I've scumhunted and/or pushed the discussion forward in every post. Much more than can be said about most players so far.
Now I have to leave, but I'll be able to post again later today. My vote is going for imcasey, as I previously reasoned. I'll be looking at each player's filters later today, though.
##Vote imcasey
(Btw, my vote for Cubu was in real hurry as well, so I indeed should have reasoned it better, but I just had no time. I'll get back to it later!)
Well WeeTee Did get replaced which could be the reason why he was playing so "safe" and conservative. He badnwagoned to avoid a modkill in order to fulfill the replacement, so it seems. The fact that there is little to no evidence other than "he was playing safe" doesn't really seem like a sure vote to go for, unless you are trying for another mislynch. You vote and leave the first day and you do it again the second time. It seems like your strategy seems to be "POP" then lurk. which seems a bit suspicious.
And making a Vigi shoot for a town for the reason of "just cuase" seems rather irresponsible and just loses a town at the end.
I don't think kville is Mafia,
If there is a Vigilante, kville would make for a good shot.
You have a town read on me yet you still want to kill me off. Why lower the odds town in such a way?
WE HAVE AN ARGUMENT! WE HAVE REASONING! I didn't even realise it was him until I saw the last line. This is amazing. We need Xatalos to respond to Kville's my and whoever elses questions. Just so you know my questions were what do you think of killing and why WeeTee over stutters.
This is really annoying, but I just haven't been able to post at all because I've had no time, and now even our evening break gets filled with stupidity..... I can hopefully start posting again in less than 10 hours, if I can use my sleeping time to do that. I partly regret joining this game with so limited time, but anyways, at least I have the weekend free of military.
So, you weren't actually scum hunting, why weren't you scum hunting? Couldn't figure out who to lynch and actually make a good case for because you're mafia? Just because thrawn called you town doesn't make you town.
For the record, town doesn't need a leader, a leader can hurt a town more than help, if the leader is mafia, we're all fucked. Saying that you're the most active doesn't actually make you town. We agreed that the only deciding factor is that being too lurker-ish is scummy. Active does not equate to town.
Accusing me because I'm accusing you is a very bad idea, that's like, the #1 worse scum defense. So tell me, with logical terms, good reasons, and actual evidence, who your best two scum reads are?
I was scumhunting, I just didn't have a great idea of who was scum day 1, as no one did. I thought cubu looked more like mafia than anyone else. Scumhunting doesn't' mean figuring out 100% who is mafia, that is impossible.
Thrawn calling me town doesn't make me town--this is true. But thrawn is a confirmed innocent so at least we know that all his motivations were pro town and his beliefs genuine.
Drazak I agree the town doesn't need a leader, but I think we do need to be focused. And what I mean by that is we should not all be analyzing different people. That is what mafia wants because it makes it easy for mafia to hide amidst that confusion and not to take a stance on people he doesn't want to take a stance on.
You ask me who my best scum reads are atm. I will comply. As of now it's xatalos, for reasons already posted. I still want to analyze your filter more, drazak, but I will say that accusing me out of the blue, since for many I am a strong town read, was not really a safe move, and that gives you town points...minor town points though, because you may have thought that cubu flipping green justified your suspicion. Other people I am suspicious of is stutters, since he has been absent for quite a while now.. I really want to see what he is going to post today before I make a judgement on him.
I will post more substantially later.
PS I really don't want to lynch kville in light of his most recent post and just thinking about it more. He deserves the lynch maybe because his play was just really bad and anti town but I don't want to waste it on him. Also I think it is mostly a waste of time to discuss him, since there is not much to talk about or analyze in his posts.
On September 05 2012 19:22 JacobStrangelove wrote: I HAVE looked through those filters and because if it I want more people to do the same. It's obvious I am the big one going at killing at least so I am in a spot if he is lynched and flips town. Despite almost nobody thinking he is scum (after his list post day one people all thought he was town{not going to start the lists are easy to hide behind stuff again}) Also I don't think I am latching on to other peoples reads if I am going for killing and Xato. (xato maybe but you must realise almost everyone has been accused so almost everyone thinking the same could be a bandwagon move).
The reason I am putting the pressure on Killing and Xato so much is so they explain what is going on. Assuming you are not mafia the likelyhood of one of them being one is high. So I agree we should put the heat on him that is what I have been trying to do. I haven’t commited to Xato as I am waiting for a response.
Your and thrawns stutters read does make sense... motivation over activity.
Whose analysis was I latching onto there? The only analysis part I latched onto was the first line. From kush going for Xatalos onwards that was all mine. (With exception to the wagon when tired up part) I am confirming parts of other people’s analysis that makes sense.
Posts like yours are the reason I encouraged clear and concise posting in my first "fluffy" post of the thread. They frustrate me to no end. I already asked you to try to stop rambling but your posts just continue to be all over the place, which is just distracting. (yeah, someone rightly accused me of being "thread police" earlier, whatever, can we please try to make at least some sense when we're posting?)
I went through your posting history on Killing and these are the most logical arguments you made (which speak volumes about the arguments I left out):
On September 03 2012 01:02 JacobStrangelove wrote: Killing time: I do read you as scum you post twice one with a very safe set of people to accuse (apart from myself to this point) and you were missing for a large period of time with no apparent reason.
Standard early d1 fluff/lurk accusation, nothing wrong with that really.
On September 03 2012 01:02 JacobStrangelove wrote: Sonic: I am also unsure about sonic due to the point you brought up regarding him being a fluffy poster as well. That said (I am doing this again I know...) what he said about it fitting everyone in the thread so far also is a sound argument. However my initial scum read was sonic. (due to fluffy posting) only question is why would a sonic Killing time team act this way?
[...]
Kreb: Maybe a scum read but not enough to put him in there. His “list” is basically just agreeing with everything except the one person that is controversial. Possible Kreb/Killing team?
Now you introduce possible connection between me/killing and kreb/killing. For some reason you're out for Killing and you throw out random ideas to see what sticks.
On September 04 2012 16:36 JacobStrangelove wrote: So who started the bandwagon? Who joined in?(in a strange manner) I am almost sure one of the three sonic, myself or killing is mafia. More killing because he promised a (probably longer post in the evening then just said goodnight.) Admittedly this is a really weak reason.
[...]
YES Exactly Kreb about the weak lynch *cough* Killing *cough* also good point about who was opposed.
A new argument you even find weak yourself. In the second bolded part I don't know what you're talking about (reading the Kreb post referenced didn't help).
On September 04 2012 22:42 JacobStrangelove wrote: Ok, So due to motivation stutters is likely to be scum. But I would like some answers out of Killing as to what he is thinking right now. Your only real strong read as the game went on was WeeTee but considering he didn't have time and had to leave the thread it is likely he is town without time. (now ImCasey)
So what do you think now? I have been ranting at you for a while (maybe misguided) but you could give me something to go on. You also mention that it is
Jacob, I did not find your response to me very helpful, it was clearly contradictory for you to say that my reads were very/too safe and then give the "reads" that you did.
You would think you could come up with something better than that? When people accuse me of things I list reasons why it's illogical and such. You seem to be hiding under short posts now.
Lots of words, no accusations of substance and now you want logical explanations?
On September 05 2012 11:48 JacobStrangelove wrote: Wait so both killling and Xatalos were going at weetee/imcasey? *cough* doesn't this sound right. Considering according to thrawn (confirmed town now) both had week reasoning for cubu and Xatalos was defending killing in a non committal way at one point(not much but...) Sonic case is so out of date though. Even I stopped harassing him as I ended up at least partially satisfied.
I would look at the Xatalos/Killing filters if I were you. They both seem to be starting a bandwagon. Xatalos starts it and then killing jumps on. I agree policy lynch on kville/stutters might be a problem considering the place it would leave us in.(if they flip town) That said I want to know more about you guys (kville and stutters) go out there say stuff. You are likely to get lynched before these guys so try and help us out. Also you would think he would wait for imcasey to start posting. I could be wrong so anyone feel free to point out any illogic here.
Here you introduce the Xatalos/Killing connection. As far as I understand, it would be based on the fact that:
1. Thrawn claimed they both had weak reasonings for voting Cubu. Killing didn't vote on Cubu until after the point it was sure he was getting lynched though. You yourself put in your vote at a more scummy timing after the wagon had already started (giving Cubu a 3-2 lead vs Kville). 2. They both were sceptical of WeeTee? At least half the players were sceptical about WeeTee and for good reasons (at least at that point in the game). You think they're scummy because they didn't have the same pre-game read as you?
On September 05 2012 18:12 JacobStrangelove wrote: No you have that completly wrong, I was more thinking you would town lynch WeeTee and then bus or town lynch whoever town disliked most out of Stutters kville. I know I am pushing you but it's mainly so I have more information. You are the only one I can force to talk at the moment as kville and Stutters seem like hopless cases.
Why wouldn't he just lynch Cubu? And how come you're so sure WeeTee is townie?
Cliffnotes: Suspecting a Killing/Xatalos connection has no logical explanation.
I will concede to the point that you're taking a risk with your Killing insinuations, I didn't realize you went after him this early. That’s the one read you’ve committed to since the start (aside from Cubu) but it makes no sense. If you actually went through his filter I find it weird those are your conclusions (explained above). I'm still wondering what motives you have. If you're scum you're playing good, because you give a serious fucking headache.
I can't believe all the time I just wasted going throw your filter
On September 05 2012 13:02 kushm4sta wrote: Thrawn was like town leader and now he is gone. We need to do is come up with a plan for day 2 so we can as a town stay focused. We do NOT want to all be accusing different people. That is what mafia wants. We do not want to be discussing things that do not contribute to the scum hunt. Anyone have an idea for a day 2 town plan to help us?
In the next post I will discuss this recent drazak vote for me.
I think it's a good idea to build a lot of cases today to get as much info as possible. We absolutely need to be more focused tomorrow and not all go vote on different people.
Atm my top two lynching candidates are: Stutters Xatalos
Jacob is just too damn confusing for me to want lynch right now, but among the more active posters he's my highest suspect. Imcasey has shown some good signs in his posting and I'm willing to give him a pass for now. Kville just made his first reasonable post, as ridiculous as it may seem it might be enough to get him through to d3. He still really needs to post more/better.
Im reading filters and checking alot of the new assumptions trying to come up with a post with good content, for now its to much new accusations here that i can post about before iv read some more. I think we should calm down alittle and try to find some good evidence/leads before pointing fingers like we do now.
I had given up the hope that kville would start contributing, but now he appears with a somewhat sensible post. The problem is, the tone of that post is very different from before. Earlier he was reckless and random, but now he's suddenly very careful and subtle. He calls me "a bit suspicious" based on my streaks of activity (totally out of my control) and asking for him to be Vigi shot (which still seems like the best course of action). It's certainly better than nothing, but a very slight suspicion - and adding nothing else to the discussion - this late in the game made me rethink my read on him. Especially this inconsistency between his old and current posting style makes him a big Mafia suspect in my eyes.
Stutters695 has kind of flied under the radar all game. He's been willing to "consolidate" (=bandwagon) on both Cubu and kville, both weak players - no danger of getting into a dangerous argument and thus getting too much attention. Definitely a suspicious lurker. He's a good lynch, but so are imcasey and kville. I'm willing to lynch any of these three players, and I don't have a real favorite right now. I'll have to decide if imcasey actually is the best lynch among them, since they are all almost equally suspicious and imcasey just feels a bit more suspect (based on WeeTee's seriously suspicious approach of giving only neutral and slight town reads behind fluffy walls of text).
I don't think I've ever said that WeeTee was much more likely Mafia than Stutters695? They've seemed somewhat equally scummy all this time, in my opinion. Where did this misunderstanding come from?
KillingTime has played a pretty solid game so far, I think. I don't see any scummy posts in his filter, expect maybe the slightly fluffy first posts... But that's hardly worth mentioning at this point. Did that satisfy you, Jacob?
I'll be reading filters and hopefully coming to some new findings before morning.
Im trying my best on reading myself up and contribute with some good content, i feel im getting a better view now and i feel im not as hot as i were before my first post where i suspected kushm4sta as people see i try to contribute, only reason iv been suspected is because of teewee`s actions or non actions before i stepped in.
I dont understand why you are attacking me so much xatalos You are saying I don't think I've ever said that WeeTee was much more likely Mafia than Stutters695
some sentence later you are saying :
imcasey just feels a bit more suspect (based on WeeTee's seriously suspicious approach of giving only neutral and slight town reads behind fluffy walls of text)
Also looking trough your filter, your saying : It's so very easy to say things like "I'll post something useful closer to the deadline". As Mafia, it's the perfect situation: you can observe the thread and then start pushing someone who would have been lynched anyway
looking at what you said in your last post :
I'll be reading filters and hopefully coming to some new findings before morning.
I think you played well, but you lost track of all your bluffing, i think you are mafia.
[green]Can we get imcasey's filter added to the list? Thanks[/color]
Sorry about the slow start d1 guys. Hopefully I can prove my town worth today.
Kville is interesting. His first helpful post comes 10 hours after the end of Normal Mini III where he was mislynched for nearly identical play to his start in this game. Assuming he keeps up this improved style of posting this means one of two things: 1) He realized that his playstyle previously loses games and has decided to make a more serious effort 2) He realized after how bad he'd played it would provide a perfect cover for scummy play in this game.
There is some evidence for the latter. In III he was essentially a guaranteed lynch from the start of the last day onward. This would mean that he should have realized his bad play was hurting the town during Day 1, not partway into Day 2.
His filter in Mini III also has fairly steady activity throughout each day with occasional cases
Of course the simplest and most likely explanation is 1) and he simply realized we'd lose like this.
So for Kville: Why did you have such a sudden change in posting style? Why should we believe you've turned a new leaf? Even when you were ignoring this game for the other game you were posting mostly spam but still working in cases. Here you've been lurking, even since the end of Mini III.
Also why did you "vote" for imcasey at night? I'm assuming it was a joke but if that's the case of your 2 posts in the night period why would you waste one of them on a joke and then come in and defend the guy the next day?
Thank you for that meta read on kville, Stutters! Fitting his meta doesn't make him automatically town, but I think it does remove suspicion for that suspicious behavior. I think it makes kville a null read.
And I think he is fitting his meta. Basically this guy believe that posting and making reads on d1 is useless, and he's bitter about being lynched for believing that.
imcasey, given your 8 posts on TL i take it you're pretty new here. Try to use the quote button on top of the posting box (7th button from the left) when quoting what other people say. Makes it much more readable.
Till Kita gets back I can't edit his post with the list in it, but if you look in the top right of each person's post, there's a link named filter that does the same thing until then =D
On September 06 2012 04:16 kushm4sta wrote: Thank you for that meta read on kville, Stutters! Fitting his meta doesn't make him automatically town, but I think it does remove suspicion for that suspicious behavior. I think it makes kville a null read.
And I think he is fitting his meta. Basically this guy believe that posting and making reads on d1 is useless, and he's bitter about being lynched for believing that.
Please note that this is not me saying he's unknown. This is me wanting answers to those questions in order to have a more solid read on him. If he doesn't answer or is only popping in the thread once a day still I will assume he's scum because he's shown that he isn't incompetent at this.
On September 06 2012 02:17 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I think it's a good idea to build a lot of cases today to get as much info as possible. We absolutely need to be more focused tomorrow and not all go vote on different people.
Ok I can get aboard with this. Soon I will make a case against someone who has been off everyone's radar recently. He still strikes me as very suspicious though.
If it’s a standard early lurk accusation then why mention it? Yes I did throw around connections and because of that I now know that both you and killing are far less likely to be scum. Remember there are town motivations for accusing people especially early day one when you don’t have much to go on. You can look at the reactions and see how people respond or ignore things. For example, Xatatos just re-entered the thread and didn’t mention a thing about the accusations against him. Whereas both you and killing have without giving me much to go on(in way of mafia reads). I tend to scum hunt differently because if I can confirm enough people town logically the rest must be mafia. Then you can look at the people remaining and go from most suspicious to least. Of course I find the argument weak there was almost no argument strong at all day one. Wouldn’t lynch cubu because cubu was an easy day two lynch. I have been taking a risk with killing insinuations however due to that and the responses I have gotten as I said in the last through posts he is getting more and more town like. Opposed to Xatatos.
I doubt it is still the best course of action to vig shoot kville. While it is odd to go from random to logical and clear. (something I should try doing it seems) Maybe he got a prod from one of the mods about the rules? Not sure if that happens (and it would only happen as town) also if he does start posting like this then we should be able to find something out quickly. Stutters is still under the radar, this is not mindless agreeing this is fact. Happy about your comment on killing
Turns out I need to go so I will cut this off here and be back later.
On September 06 2012 07:36 JacobStrangelove wrote: If it’s a standard early lurk accusation then why mention it? Yes I did throw around connections and because of that I now know that both you and killing are far less likely to be scum. Remember there are town motivations for accusing people especially early day one when you don’t have much to go on. You can look at the reactions and see how people respond or ignore things. For example, Xatatos just re-entered the thread and didn’t mention a thing about the accusations against him. Whereas both you and killing have without giving me much to go on(in way of mafia reads). I tend to scum hunt differently because if I can confirm enough people town logically the rest must be mafia. Then you can look at the people remaining and go from most suspicious to least. Of course I find the argument weak there was almost no argument strong at all day one. Wouldn’t lynch cubu because cubu was an easy day two lynch. I have been taking a risk with killing insinuations however due to that and the responses I have gotten as I said in the last through posts he is getting more and more town like. Opposed to Xatatos.
I doubt it is still the best course of action to vig shoot kville. While it is odd to go from random to logical and clear. (something I should try doing it seems) Maybe he got a prod from one of the mods about the rules? Not sure if that happens (and it would only happen as town) also if he does start posting like this then we should be able to find something out quickly. Stutters is still under the radar, this is not mindless agreeing this is fact. Happy about your comment on killing
Turns out I need to go so I will cut this off here and be back later.
Who are you talking to? Can you try harder to make your posts understandable? Like if you are replying to something make it clear what you are replying to.
Ok, I dont really like the way this is going. We've had people going on hunts left and right last 24h with really no focus recently. While I did agree that leaving Kville for a while and discussing other targets in parallell was a good idea, I wasnt really expecting the amount of accusation being thrown around at people.
For the remaining 24h of D2, I think it would be good if everyone could focus on 1-2, maybe 3 targets that they consider possible voting targets. Then we can get a minor grounp or players, maybe 3-4 or them who would be main suspects. Kinda like we did D1. Obviously we didnt really do it on purpose, but I think it was good we mostly focused on about 5 players D1 (WeeTee, Drazak, Kville, Cubu, Stutters). We can then let them defend themselves and choose a voting target appropriately.
Feel free to share other suspicions (I've shared mine of Xatalos for example), but try to focus on your main targets. Im not gonna push for a vote on Xatalos even though Im kinda suspicious of him.
I am however gonna push for a vote on Kville. I think all those accusations going on last 24h has given him too much breathing room. To me he still acted 100% anti-town D1, he still hasnt answered a lot of questions about his behaviour, nor has he attempted to explain why he considered his behavious to be advantageous for the town. Kville is also a low-risk/low-reward vote, which I consider a good thing. Should he flip town, we really havent lost anyone who is helping us, and it will increase of chances on hitting a mafia on D3. Lynching a more high-risk target will put us in a seriously bad spot going into D3 should we mislynch. We also run the risk of losing both the mislynch plus another good contributor N2, like we lost Thrawn. We will obviously be forced into a high-risk lynch anyway on D3 should Kville flip town, but at least theres a chance of not having to go there if we start with a low-risk lynch today and hit home.
I really didnt plan to start my serious case Kville as early as this. I would have like to wait until closer to the deadline to try and find more clues. Main reason Im already voting now is that I wanna get a bit of focus back to people, get people voting, reacting to votes and only discussion the most relevant, say, 3-5 targets.
To make it clear: Im voting on Kville in the voting thread now.
On September 06 2012 07:36 JacobStrangelove wrote: If it’s a standard early lurk accusation then why mention it? Yes I did throw around connections and because of that I now know that both you and killing are far less likely to be scum. Remember there are town motivations for accusing people especially early day one when you don’t have much to go on. You can look at the reactions and see how people respond or ignore things. For example, Xatatos just re-entered the thread and didn’t mention a thing about the accusations against him. Whereas both you and killing have without giving me much to go on(in way of mafia reads). I tend to scum hunt differently because if I can confirm enough people town logically the rest must be mafia. Then you can look at the people remaining and go from most suspicious to least. Of course I find the argument weak there was almost no argument strong at all day one. Wouldn’t lynch cubu because cubu was an easy day two lynch. I have been taking a risk with killing insinuations however due to that and the responses I have gotten as I said in the last through posts he is getting more and more town like. Opposed to Xatatos.
I doubt it is still the best course of action to vig shoot kville. While it is odd to go from random to logical and clear. (something I should try doing it seems) Maybe he got a prod from one of the mods about the rules? Not sure if that happens (and it would only happen as town) also if he does start posting like this then we should be able to find something out quickly. Stutters is still under the radar, this is not mindless agreeing this is fact. Happy about your comment on killing
Turns out I need to go so I will cut this off here and be back later.
Who are you talking to? Can you try harder to make your posts understandable? Like if you are replying to something make it clear what you are replying to.
Agreed. Use the quote button to show who you are talking to or specifically state it. Makes it much more understandable. Noticed the same thing in this post:
On September 05 2012 19:22 JacobStrangelove wrote: I HAVE looked through those filters and because if it I want more people to do the same. It's obvious I am the big one going at killing at least so I am in a spot if he is lynched and flips town. Despite almost nobody thinking he is scum (after his list post day one people all thought he was town{not going to start the lists are easy to hide behind stuff again}) Also I don't think I am latching on to other peoples reads if I am going for killing and Xato. (xato maybe but you must realise almost everyone has been accused so almost everyone thinking the same could be a bandwagon move).
The reason I am putting the pressure on Killing and Xato so much is so they explain what is going on. Assuming you are not mafia the likelyhood of one of them being one is high. So I agree we should put the heat on him that is what I have been trying to do. I haven’t commited to Xato as I am waiting for a response.
Your and thrawns stutters read does make sense... motivation over activity.
Whose analysis was I latching onto there? The only analysis part I latched onto was the first line. From kush going for Xatalos onwards that was all mine. (With exception to the wagon when tired up part) I am confirming parts of other people’s analysis that makes sense.
Also the case against kush isn’t strong, as I said before you (not bad wagoning I promise...) It leaves more reason to Drazak being scum than Kush.
On September 05 2012 18:12 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Kush is getting pushed on by Darzak who had both the people against him lynched. This makes it more likely that he is scum than kush is but we shouldn't fall into the trap if thinking kush is confirmed town just because thrawn thought so.
I probably should point out that part of the reason I had a town read for WeeTee is that I happen to know his style (see his first post where he mentions it’s good to see me) and it reeks of town. With this (although he may have fooled me) I thought Xatatos read of WeeTee when Stutters was available strange. Also with killing he is sceptical of “meta” reads
On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote: My point was that I did not think your town reads added much to the thread, partly because I am very sceptical of "meta" reads at this point given that we all have 3 or less games.
Sure but its more information, that can only be helpful. If WeeTee fits his meta (he does) and he fits the meta I know he is unlikely to be scum. This and the fact that he had to leave due to time problems(although that may have been after my time line is a little messed up) then surely stutters were a better lynch. For this reason I have been thinking that killing is mafia sudo protecting stutters. Since the focus is on me now I need to say The Killing /xatalos thing was simply a hypothesis I was using to draw them out. (It was based on someone else’s analysis yes) It drew out Killing and he responded well. (although it was list like) So I am simply waiting for Xatalos to reenter the thread. If he reenters the thread and doesn’t post good responses I will turn the dogs in my head towards him.
At that point it was kinda clear you werent talking to Sonis, but not without actually checking back on what was written before, which shouldnt be needed. But still no reason not to do it. As kush said this time though Im not really 100% sure on who you're talking to.
On September 06 2012 07:49 Kreb wrote: Ok, I dont really like the way this is going. We've had people going on hunts left and right last 24h with really no focus recently. While I did agree that leaving Kville for a while and discussing other targets in parallell was a good idea, I wasnt really expecting the amount of accusation being thrown around at people.
I agree we should limit our discussion to three people for the last 24 hours. But the last 24 hours haven't started yet so I think it's ok for people to still basically give suggests as to who those three people should be.
For instance if I had to pick three it would be drazak, killing, and xatalos. I'm going to try to get my reasoning in for drazak and killing before the 24 hour mark.
On September 06 2012 08:03 kushm4sta wrote: For instance if I had to pick three it would be drazak, killing, and xatalos. I'm going to try to get my reasoning in for drazak and killing before the 24 hour mark.
I'll chime in that my main three targets would be Kville, Stutters, Xatalos. Nothing which has changed last 24h really, but might be a good idea to make it clear once more,
On September 06 2012 07:49 Kreb wrote: Ok, I dont really like the way this is going. We've had people going on hunts left and right last 24h with really no focus recently. While I did agree that leaving Kville for a while and discussing other targets in parallell was a good idea, I wasnt really expecting the amount of accusation being thrown around at people.
I agree we should limit our discussion to three people for the last 24 hours. But the last 24 hours haven't started yet so I think it's ok for people to still basically give suggests as to who those three people should be.
For us in EU, it pretty much has :p When I wake up it will be 18h left or so. So I preferred getting the info out now rather than then, especially since I'll be at work 8h tomorrow.
fuckin euros man... I think kville is a bad choice to focus on. He has not posted enough to discuss meaningfully, and considering his meta I think he is a null read. Also we gain nothing by lynching him, whether he flips red or green, because his lynch is a matter of policy more than anything else. If we cannot come to a consensus on someone more active to lynch, then maybe he can be our default lynch or somthing. So yeah I'm not saying we shouldn't lynch him but I am saying we shouldn't talk about him.
Stutters has been lurking hard day 2. His recent kville accusations have been very safe. At this point kville is the safest person to suspect, just because his play has been so WTF. However, I do appreciate his recent contributions on kville's metagame and I think that was a good post. I'm ok with stutters as a focus but I would prefer someone else.
However I think we can all at least agree that xatalos needs some looking at for the last 24 hours. People should say if they want to lynch him or not and why.
Someone else I want to get people's thoughts on are drazzak. He is a semi-lurker and all around bad poster. So losing him would not mean losing good town, unlike a lynch on xatalos. His attack on me seems scummy for various reasons.. possibly defending his scumbuddy by attacking his scumbuddy's attacker. Also I would like to make a post about the drazzak xatalos connection. If you read the filter xatalos has a history of defending drazzak and calling his posts good when they really aren't.
On September 04 2012 00:05 Xatalos wrote: I also don't think drazak is Mafia. The typical reaction for pressured Mafia is to get angry, aggressive or desperate, but in my eyes, he has tried to be genuinely helpful - giving away a lot of unnecessary information in case he actually was Mafia. The somewhat frustrated tone in his posts also points more to town than Mafia.
When i read this i was like ...huh? Drazak's defense of thrawn's vote actually made him seem more suspicious to me. I would not call him genuinely helpful at all. It seems very out of place reading xatalos' filter that he would be that accepting of drazak.
As someone outside of the kush/drazak argument, I think you're both overreacting.
Kush: I agree with you drazak isnt an amazing poster overall. But that why you can take his accusations more lightly. I dont think anyone jumped onto Drazaks wagon on you Kush, did they? You should be feeling pretty safe given the opinions people post about you. You're also making conditional accusations. "If Xatalos is scum, Drazak might be trying to cover for his buddy". While its a possibility, theres absolutely not reason to ever go for Drazak in that case. Your focus should be on Xatalos and getting a mafia flip on him, which then would confirm your suspicions.
Drazak: No offense, but you havent posted the most contributing posts. And your case on Kush to me is a weak case. As far as I can remember now, there hasnt been much support for your case, actually rather the opposite with people claiming townreads on Kush. I'd advice you to drop your case, if nothing else for the purpose of getting a more focused discussion since theres pretty much no chance there will be a Kush lynch D2.
So can we come to a consensus about people we want to focus investigation on? Xatalos and who else? I like drazak but kreb doesn't it seems like. Any other input on the matter? Again I want to avoid lurkers who don't really have much to talk about.
On September 06 2012 08:53 kushm4sta wrote: He is a semi-lurker and all around bad poster. So losing him would not mean losing good town, unlike a lynch on xatalos.
I have a hard time seeing how that argument isnt best used on Kville. He is the definition of a not good town (if he is town).
Also, people gave you towncred for your kinda unjustified attack on me. To me, drazaks attack on you is similar. I understand it might not look the same from the point of view as the attacked person. But just as people thought you had honest (but miguided) intentions on your attack on me, I definitely think drazak also has honest and misguided intentions with the attack on you. You're not having much more reason to turn things back onto drazak than I did have to turn things nack onto you. But I never did that.
I'll also post my other townread on Drazak. Maybe Im over-analyzing things, but this one little part of a sentence actually had me fairly conviced. Let me explain:
Page 14 if you wanna re-read. What had happened before was: Thrawn had made a case on Drazak. Drazak had responded with a bunch on replies. I pointed out Drazaks defense being lackluster. The drazak pointed out this:
On September 03 2012 20:43 drazak wrote: I only mention a no-lynch in direct reply to what kushm4sta said, reread his post. Sorry if I'm being defensive, not sure how that's a senseless claim considering what kushm4sta said. Everything I've said has made me infinitely more useful on D2 compared to someone like kville, I have a lot to analyze, and you'll have more info. lynch me now and your future lynches get harder.
See what Im getting at? Probably not. The key thing to me is this:
Sorry if I'm being defensive
That really had me thinking. Let me explain. That little phrase expresses the feeling of guilt. First of all, there is absolutely no reason for a mafia to feel genuine guilt at this point. He is being attack from one front (thrawn) and then has his defense kind of destroyed from another front (me). What is the feeling you get as mafia then? Desperation? Maybe. Resignation? Maybe. Anger? Maybe. Guilt? Hell no. For this to be a mafia-move, it has to be a planted feeling. A purposedly planted feeling to fool us.
So, it it possible it was? To me, no. Because purposedly placing a feeling on guilt there is a pretty damn crafty move. And had drazak been a crafty mafia, he would never have put himself in that situation to begin with. He would never have replied so badly to Thrawns accusations had he been a crafty mafia.
So whats more likely? A) He got taken by surprise by thrawns accusations, immediately tried to defend himself, but upon seeing my post kinda talk down on his defense feelt guilt and the need to excuse himself. B) Purposedly responded badly to thrawns accusation. Then upon seeing my comment gladly noticed that "hey, now is the perfect time to apologize for my bad defense, surely someone will make a read on me thats its genuine guilt and i'll look townish".
Am I over-anazyling things? Maybe. But to me drazak is looking town at least.
On September 06 2012 08:53 kushm4sta wrote: He is a semi-lurker and all around bad poster. So losing him would not mean losing good town, unlike a lynch on xatalos.
I have a hard time seeing how that argument isnt best used on Kville. He is the definition of a not good town (if he is town).
Also, people gave you towncred for your kinda unjustified attack on me. To me, drazaks attack on you is similar. I understand it might not look the same from the point of view as the attacked person. But just as people thought you had honest (but miguided) intentions on your attack on me, I definitely think drazak also has honest and misguided intentions with the attack on you. You're not having much more reason to turn things back onto drazak than I did have to turn things nack onto you. But I never did that.
My attack on you was not unjustified and not misguided. Your post was a piece of shit and very suspicious and I wanted you to post more.
On September 06 2012 08:53 kushm4sta wrote: He is a semi-lurker and all around bad poster. So losing him would not mean losing good town, unlike a lynch on xatalos.
I have a hard time seeing how that argument isnt best used on Kville. He is the definition of a not good town (if he is town).
Also, people gave you towncred for your kinda unjustified attack on me. To me, drazaks attack on you is similar. I understand it might not look the same from the point of view as the attacked person. But just as people thought you had honest (but miguided) intentions on your attack on me, I definitely think drazak also has honest and misguided intentions with the attack on you. You're not having much more reason to turn things back onto drazak than I did have to turn things nack onto you. But I never did that.
My attack on you was not unjustified and not misguided. Your post was a piece of shit and very suspicious and I wanted you to post more.
You're going pretty off topic so I'll reply in spoilers. On topic: Dont you agree Kville is the definition of a not good town?
My post was two sentences agreeing on stuff like 3 people already agreed on. Then another 1 sentence of what I would do later (which for some reason several players auto-assumed I would not fulfill. I was accused of not fulfilling a commitment before there was even time to fulfill it). Thrawn also said it was unjustified, others pointed it out to, though maybe with with that wording.
Stop using that aggressive tone. Calm down. You are making it only harder for yourself to focus and for the rest of us too. I dont want this to start into a dicussion about what happened 10h into D1. Thats over
I'll also post my other townread on Drazak. Maybe Im over-analyzing things, but this one little part of a sentence actually had me fairly conviced. Let me explain:
Page 14 if you wanna re-read. What had happened before was: Thrawn had made a case on Drazak. Drazak had responded with a bunch on replies. I pointed out Drazaks defense being lackluster. The drazak pointed out this:
On September 03 2012 20:43 drazak wrote: I only mention a no-lynch in direct reply to what kushm4sta said, reread his post. Sorry if I'm being defensive, not sure how that's a senseless claim considering what kushm4sta said. Everything I've said has made me infinitely more useful on D2 compared to someone like kville, I have a lot to analyze, and you'll have more info. lynch me now and your future lynches get harder.
See what Im getting at? Probably not. The key thing to me is this:
Sorry if I'm being defensive
That really had me thinking. Let me explain. That little phrase expresses the feeling of guilt. First of all, there is absolutely no reason for a mafia to feel genuine guilt at this point. He is being attack from one front (thrawn) and then has his defense kind of destroyed from another front (me). What is the feeling you get as mafia then? Desperation? Maybe. Resignation? Maybe. Anger? Maybe. Guilt? Hell no. For this to be a mafia-move, it has to be a planted feeling. A purposedly planted feeling to fool us.
So, it it possible it was? To me, no. Because purposedly placing a feeling on guilt there is a pretty damn crafty move. And had drazak been a crafty mafia, he would never have put himself in that situation to begin with. He would never have replied so badly to Thrawns accusations had he been a crafty mafia.
So whats more likely? A) He got taken by surprise by thrawns accusations, immediately tried to defend himself, but upon seeing my post kinda talk down on his defense feelt guilt and the need to excuse himself. B) Purposedly responded badly to thrawns accusation. Then upon seeing my comment gladly noticed that "hey, now is the perfect time to apologize for my bad defense, surely someone will make a read on me thats its genuine guilt and i'll look townish".
Am I over-anazyling things? Maybe. But to me drazak is looking town at least.
That whole thing about guilt.. not following it, not buying it. Guilt is a very complex emotion and I do not think you can base his innocence off of one sentence that you somehow read as guilt.
Looking for other people to chime in on what they think of drazak. Also does someone follow what kreb is saying here?
this quote is lolz
He is being attack from one front (thrawn) and then has his defense kind of destroyed from another front (me).
His defense was not a defense. The post you praise was just copying an argument I made, which did not even take into account if he was mafia or not. He had no real defense to destroy.. and to say you "destroyed" it like some master logician picking apart his arguments is an overestimation of both drazzak and yourself.
On September 06 2012 09:58 Kreb wrote: On topic: Dont you agree Kville is the definition of a not good town?
First sorry for being a dick I was pissed off in that moment about something else. Second yeah kville is really bad town, but he acted bad town in another game as well and he was town. Therefore acting like bad town doesn't make him mafia. It's just a null read. I don't want to lynch someone who has a null read.
Who are you talking to? Can you try harder to make your posts understandable? Like if you are replying to something make it clear what you are replying to.
Hey I was in a hurry 10 min before the train left. I was talking to sonic. Will read and bbl.
Lol kush chill... But you want people to chime in so I will just to be clear I will state what I think is happening feel free to correct me. We are discussing Kville being bad town according to Kush and you are focusing on Drazzak. Kreb is saying Drazzak as a town read and then kville as a focus point. Assuming we are ignoring stutters (who is the person I would go for over xatalos due to the useful town problem if the flip goes wrong) I will chime in.
I think you are both wrong in some respects. First off Kush might have a slight OMGUS syndrome to drazak and Kreb is doing a horrible job defending Drazak (with the over analysis part). Considering that xatalos and drazak are under suspicion there could be a connection but I will have to look into it for myself. Just stating what is going on.
While his case was suspicious, on kush it was impossible. A mafia wouldn’t push a case that is so blatantly hard to even get rolling. I considered it however decided soon after that it was not the case. This is very important. It’s literally an impossible case.
The read kreb has on drazak is fine for the most part with the exception to the guilt thing. That is a way over analysis... that is kind of the stuff I do. When I do that stuff though I don’t make it my all in all case for truth it’s just circumstantial. You spent way to long on that one line while it is true it’s only a slight and I mean SLIGHT bonus read for drazak. Honestly I would go with drazak as more of a town read(because of him pushing an impossible case) but I haven’t checked on on the xatalos/drazak defence yet. So I will post this and do that now.
Also on drazak he posted his twitter gave the option for photos about the move (yes going though the filters) and sleeps strange hours. He would have to be a master scum. For me He is town.
Been reading the back and forth between you guys (Kreb and Kush). I think I underestimated the difficulty to get decent wagons going in time d1 (like Kush pointed out), so I agree it's time to get started. So your suggestions are:
I agree about Xatalos, so he seems set. I'll write a summary of what's suspicious about Xatalos, but my time during the day is limited so don't expect it until 8-10h before EOD (and that's when I'll put my vote in).
About your differences: Unless someone comes up with good cases against drazak and KillingTime I don't see myself giving them my vote today. I've been going through KillingTime's filter and just don't find him very suspicious, neither do I find Jacob's case strong (as I've explained before). With regards to drazak I haven't gone through his filter lately but he just hasn't struck me as suspicious. I won't put time into researching him now because there are better candidates.
My d1 suspicion of Stutters remain. He made a good post today, but we need more of that. It's just sooo easy to lurk and post one good post a day. In that post he implied he'd be more helpful today and that's really required. The same can be said about Kville. So basically I agree with Kreb and the bolded posters will get my vote tonight.
Ok, having re-read through a bunch of filters today I think we should lynch Stutters695 - Yes his posting/lurking has been/is reason enough to lynch him. But, reading back through filters there has been way to much redirection of discussion away from him as a good lynch - particularly from kush.
First : Kush, who on Day 1 was very eager to see Cubu lynched, and made numerous posts deflecting attention away from stutters equally terrible posting (and he convinced town to mislynch - not necessarily his fault ofc, but...).
Here, just after stutters has made his first substantive (no real scumhunting though, just pointless arguing) post, Krush soon starts to push his lynch wagon on other targets:
So it seems like the consensus is to lynch either cubu or kville. Anyone not feel this way?
Well, clearly alot of people did not feel that way, but Kush was very good at pushing (Cubu over other targets). Here he redirects the suspicion of our confirmed town player with a poor defence (Stutters posts d1 were NOT helpful, in depth & coherent - they essentially amounted to "look guys I am somewhat active and these guys are not - lynch them instead")
So the drazak didn't work out for you? Now you aim your sights at Stutters. Stutters over Cuba makes ZERO sense to me. He is not the ideal townie, but if you compare his filter to Cuba's, the difference is night and day. As town Stutters appears to be much more helpful, writing in depth and coherently. You are right he has offered no scum read yet. However he still has 8 hours and as he explained he is not a very active poster. On the other hand look at cuba's "scum read." It's more like a defense: you can't lynch him for lurking because kville is lurking way harder. And then he also accuses drazak...hmm that's interesting..but I'll get to that next post.
Equally on Day 2 Kush is keen to portray stutters as basically a null read and focus discussion elsewhere.
Stutters has been lurking hard day 2. His recent kville accusations have been very safe. At this point kville is the safest person to suspect, just because his play has been so WTF. However, I do appreciate his recent contributions on kville's metagame and I think that was a good post. I'm ok with stutters as a focus but I would prefer someone else.
But then, again straight after that he is again trying to establish a consensus on a lynch that does not include stutters
So can we come to a consensus about people we want to focus investigation on? Xatalos and who else? I like drazak but kreb doesn't it seems like. Any other input on the matter? Again I want to avoid lurkers who don't really have much to talk about.
Xatalos has done a similar thing (to a lesser extent) - throughout much of the game redirecting suspicion away from stutters (though it may be less intentional in his cas)
Here he is:
The case against WeeTee (imcasey) is quite good IMO. At least I think it's much stronger than the policy lynching of kville or the suspicions toward Stutters695.
but then, when I (and jacob? - not sure, I am not reading jacobs shitstorm of a filter again to find out) were confused why he thought this he says
I don't think I've ever said that WeeTee was much more likely Mafia than Stutters695? They've seemed somewhat equally scummy all this time, in my opinion. Where did this misunderstanding come from?
But in that post he is at least happy to discuss Stutters as a lynch.
Now, this does not mean that both Kush & Xatalos are mafia if stutters flips - but that is WAY too much subtle redirecting of a target for me. Stutters is as scummy as anyone at this point, if he flips we will have some strong targets for d3. If we lynch him and he is not mafia, town is in a bad spot - but we are in a bad spot regardless of who we lynch if they flip and are not mafia (kreb has convinced me of this with his case against kville that there is no point not going for lurkers.).
I think kville is not a terrible lynch. But Stutters is better and more scummy, and throws alot of suspicions on others who seem to have been redirecting a/the serious Stutters wagon so far...
On September 06 2012 07:36 JacobStrangelove wrote: 1. If it’s a standard early lurk accusation then why mention it? Yes I did throw around connections and because of that I now know that both you and killing are far less likely to be scum. Remember there are town motivations for accusing people especially early day one when you don’t have much to go on. You can look at the reactions and see how people respond or ignore things. For example, Xatatos just re-entered the thread and didn’t mention a thing about the accusations against him. Whereas both you and killing have without giving me much to go on(in way of mafia reads). 2. I tend to scum hunt differently because if I can confirm enough people town logically the rest must be mafia. Then you can look at the people remaining and go from most suspicious to least. 3. Of course I find the argument weak there was almost no argument strong at all day one. Wouldn’t lynch cubu because cubu was an easy day two lynch. I have been taking a risk with killing insinuations however due to that and the responses I have gotten as I said in the last through posts he is getting more and more town like. Opposed to Xatatos.
1. I just wanted to include it so that my post would be a fair representation of your suspicion of KillingTime (the post might be helpful later).
2. Could you provide a post where you explain those town reads clearly? Your writing is really confusing so you need to straight that up.
3. Why were you attacking KillingTimes though? Please explain the reason you've been attacking him all game and what it was in his postings that made you think he looks more town now.
Btw it's really easy to slip away from questions by not quoting the post you're replying to, so please reply to these questions.
First I'd like to point something out about Kush's posting behavior, he tries to downplay my accusations, and say that my case is bad, deciding that there is almost no case against him in his first responding post. Kush goes on to make /4/ posts responding to my accusation and then accusing me. In his posts, he either delays replying to me, which if my argument is weak, makes no sense, it should be simple to pick apart. In the meantime, I've been afk and have made 0. This seems like a bit over an overreaction if he's innocent and my accusation is weak. + Show Spoiler +
You sir, have made a big slip, every time you're accused you throw it right back at your accuser, this is the weakest of the defenses, espescially when your case is weak.
I urge the rest of the town to actually look at my arguments, instead of dismissing them as a weak case, look through kush's filter, and the posts I've described and linked, he's made a large scumslip here, at first my accusations were fairly tenative due to having only moderate evidence, but instead of his defense making my case weaker, he's made it stronger.
P.S. sorry for taking so long to post, was going to hours ago and then had dinner with a friend, when I got home I had other stuff to do on my other pc, and then fell asleep for a little after I got my laptop out.
A small addition to my case against Kville, compared to Xatalos:
Xatalos has been receiving quite a lot of suspicions lately. His defense has largely been that he's busy and unable to post. Now thats not a defense you immediately trust exactly, but the thing it that it is a defense. He is actually trying to get off the hook and post reasons for his behavior. He is also aware of his Cubu vote not being convincing. Now, none of those comment mean he is town, but he is trying to appear town at least, which every town should do. Kville, on the other hand, is.... not.... trying!
There is little reason you would want to not try as mafia, but theres even less reason if your town. Why would you not want to even give the crappiest defense against accusation? He could have posted one sentence about being busy. He could have posted some weak theory why self-voting and not contributing as good for town (even if he knows the theory is terrible, posting a theory at least gives the impression that he's trying). But he has posted absolutely nothing.
Reading the last couple of pages Kreb comes off as townie to me. He seems really interested in scumhunting, makes good points and is helping filling the role of thrawn. This is kind of enforcing the impression I've had of him earlier. I haven't commented on him because those reads without hard facts are usually not great, but I think his posts have been solid, so he gets a townie lean from me.
However, Kreb, I disagree with a couple of things. Your read on drazak being "sorry" is thoughtful and has merit, but it seems like you're putting too much weight into it. Also, I don't think drazak's case against Kush is very similar to Kush's early attack against you. Kush's early attack was kind of a spazz move at a time we had not much to go on, drazak's case just seems poorly reasoned at a time we got a lot of info to work with. This could both be done by a careless townie or a scum pushing an ulterior motive. I don't see what Kush's ulterior motive would've been.
Thanks for posting my D1 accusations of kville, he doesn't try, doesn't post, and we can't even read him. This is why I felt he was a better D1 lynch than a D2+ lynch. Cubu had posts and a defense and stuff, we could read him.
On September 06 2012 13:31 JacobStrangelove wrote: Also on drazak he posted his twitter gave the option for photos about the move (yes going though the filters) and sleeps strange hours. He would have to be a master scum. For me He is town.
Sleeping strange hours and moving is townie? Drazak is pretty much a null read for me atm.
On September 06 2012 17:28 drazak wrote: Alright, I was afk most of the day.
First I'd like to point something out about Kush's posting behavior, he tries to downplay my accusations, and say that my case is bad, deciding that there is almost no case against him in his first responding post. Kush goes on to make /4/ posts responding to my accusation and then accusing me. In his posts, he either delays replying to me, which if my argument is weak, makes no sense, it should be simple to pick apart. In the meantime, I've been afk and have made 0. This seems like a bit over an overreaction if he's innocent and my accusation is weak. + Show Spoiler +
You sir, have made a big slip, every time you're accused you throw it right back at your accuser, this is the weakest of the defenses, espescially when your case is weak.
I urge the rest of the town to actually look at my arguments, instead of dismissing them as a weak case, look through kush's filter, and the posts I've described and linked, he's made a large scumslip here, at first my accusations were fairly tenative due to having only moderate evidence, but instead of his defense making my case weaker, he's made it stronger.
P.S. sorry for taking so long to post, was going to hours ago and then had dinner with a friend, when I got home I had other stuff to do on my other pc, and then fell asleep for a little after I got my laptop out.
I'd urge you to post your voting candidates, if you have any beyond kush. Obviously you are suspicious of Kush, but whats your other possible targets? If you're gonna go through with a kush-vote, that might not be wrong if you're totally convinced he is mafia, but at least be aware that the chances of getting a kush lynch is slim at very best.
I'm honestly a little surprised others aren't chiming in on this, you seem to be the only one kreb. I'll have some more suspiscions for you in the morning, gotta read filters/etc and I've only slept a little.
On September 06 2012 17:40 drazak wrote: I'm honestly a little surprised others aren't chiming in on this, you seem to be the only one kreb. I'll have some more suspiscions for you in the morning, gotta read filters/etc and I've only slept a little.
I've been catching up on the rest of the thread. Will comment on your new posts when I get back (haven't had the chance to read them yet).
On September 06 2012 17:32 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: However, Kreb, I disagree with a couple of things. Your read on drazak being "sorry" is thoughtful and has merit, but it seems like you're putting too much weight into it. Also, I don't think drazak's case against Kush is very similar to Kush's early attack against you. Kush's early attack was kind of a spazz move at a time we had not much to go on, drazak's case just seems poorly reasoned at a time we got a lot of info to work with. This could both be done by a careless townie or a scum pushing an ulterior motive. I don't see what Kush's ulterior motive would've been.
Fair enough, maybe I'm giving Drazak too much towncred. I was just kind of annoyed with how they kept going on each other. Drazaks attack came out of nowhere to me, and then Kush snapped back unnecessarily. What troubled me was that the longer that would have gone on, the happier the mafia would be.
My accusation wasn't out of nowhere, I made a read based on what happened, I reasoned, carefully. I saw that Kush wasn't scumhunting day 1. If you're not scumhunting, you're not furthering town, if you're not furthering town... you're mafia. I then saw kush slipped by overreacting to me. Feel free to poke holes in my actual reasoning instead of calling me scum for making a reasoned accusation.
Accusations are how you gain information, you pressure people, find out what they're thinking, see how they react. I was pressured, generally you guys decided my reaction was town. I pressured kush and he scumslipped and you're not doing anything, wow.
On September 06 2012 17:02 KillingTime wrote: Ok, having re-read through a bunch of filters today I think we should lynch Stutters695 - Yes his posting/lurking has been/is reason enough to lynch him. But, reading back through filters there has been way to much redirection of discussion away from him as a good lynch - particularly from kush.
First : Kush, who on Day 1 was very eager to see Cubu lynched, and made numerous posts deflecting attention away from stutters equally terrible posting (and he convinced town to mislynch - not necessarily his fault ofc, but...).
Here, just after stutters has made his first substantive (no real scumhunting though, just pointless arguing) post, Krush soon starts to push his lynch wagon on other targets:
So it seems like the consensus is to lynch either cubu or kville. Anyone not feel this way?
Well, clearly alot of people did not feel that way, but Kush was very good at pushing (Cubu over other targets). Here he redirects the suspicion of our confirmed town player with a poor defence (Stutters posts d1 were NOT helpful, in depth & coherent - they essentially amounted to "look guys I am somewhat active and these guys are not - lynch them instead")
So the drazak didn't work out for you? Now you aim your sights at Stutters. Stutters over Cuba makes ZERO sense to me. He is not the ideal townie, but if you compare his filter to Cuba's, the difference is night and day. As town Stutters appears to be much more helpful, writing in depth and coherently. You are right he has offered no scum read yet. However he still has 8 hours and as he explained he is not a very active poster. On the other hand look at cuba's "scum read." It's more like a defense: you can't lynch him for lurking because kville is lurking way harder. And then he also accuses drazak...hmm that's interesting..but I'll get to that next post.
Equally on Day 2 Kush is keen to portray stutters as basically a null read and focus discussion elsewhere.
Stutters has been lurking hard day 2. His recent kville accusations have been very safe. At this point kville is the safest person to suspect, just because his play has been so WTF. However, I do appreciate his recent contributions on kville's metagame and I think that was a good post. I'm ok with stutters as a focus but I would prefer someone else.
But then, again straight after that he is again trying to establish a consensus on a lynch that does not include stutters
So can we come to a consensus about people we want to focus investigation on? Xatalos and who else? I like drazak but kreb doesn't it seems like. Any other input on the matter? Again I want to avoid lurkers who don't really have much to talk about.
Xatalos has done a similar thing (to a lesser extent) - throughout much of the game redirecting suspicion away from stutters (though it may be less intentional in his cas)
The case against WeeTee (imcasey) is quite good IMO. At least I think it's much stronger than the policy lynching of kville or the suspicions toward Stutters695.
but then, when I (and jacob? - not sure, I am not reading jacobs shitstorm of a filter again to find out) were confused why he thought this he says
I don't think I've ever said that WeeTee was much more likely Mafia than Stutters695? They've seemed somewhat equally scummy all this time, in my opinion. Where did this misunderstanding come from?
But in that post he is at least happy to discuss Stutters as a lynch.
Now, this does not mean that both Kush & Xatalos are mafia if stutters flips - but that is WAY too much subtle redirecting of a target for me. Stutters is as scummy as anyone at this point, if he flips we will have some strong targets for d3. If we lynch him and he is not mafia, town is in a bad spot - but we are in a bad spot regardless of who we lynch if they flip and are not mafia (kreb has convinced me of this with his case against kville that there is no point not going for lurkers.).
I think kville is not a terrible lynch. But Stutters is better and more scummy, and throws alot of suspicions on others who seem to have been redirecting a/the serious Stutters wagon so far...
This case is so shortsighted and full of holes.
First please explain how day 1 was me just saying "look guys I am somewhat active and these guys are not - lynch them instead" (bolded part is Killing Time's). I explained my reasoning in voting Cubu, why I was also in favor of a Kville lynch (still am since he hasn't responded yet again) and provided insight and questions to Kville that will help to determine his alignment (assuming he comes back).
The rest of your post is all about how Kush and Xatalos thinking I'm not the worst lynch D1 somehow means if I'm scum there is a really good chance they're scum.
First I'd like to direct you to Marv's guidance after XXIV
Associative cases - don't bloody do them until someone has flipped. They're bad.
Following that notion: What happens when I flip town? All you've done is gotten a townie lynched and your associative case is worthless. You've put town at 5/3 going into D3 and provided absolutely nothing useful from my lynch except the same type of info that you'd get from seeing how people react to any lynch.
Even if I were scum (I'm not), all your case does is lynch a scum through poor reasoning. It doesn't in any way implicate them. Kush has only a couple of posts that relate to me at all. One that was more challenging someone else pushing me for lurking over Kville (Kville has obviously been lurking harder than I have, not to mention the quality of posts). His other major post relating to me and not being lynched is his saying D2 he'd prefer someone else because of my meta read on Kville. If you don't buy that you should be questioning him, not pushing a lynch on someone because I didn't want to get lynched D1 when I know I'm town and Cubu and Kville seemed sketchy to me.
This is what really got me though
On September 06 2012 17:02 KillingTime wrote: I think kville is not a terrible lynch. But Stutters is better and more scummy, and throws alot of suspicions on others who seem to have been redirecting a/the serious Stutters wagon so far...
Please explain what part of my play has been more scummy than someone who has been trolling the thread and not contributed anything?
##FoS Killing Time
I need to go through his filter but this isn't the first time he hasn't taken a stance on issues while posting "reads" that don't actually commit longterm.
On September 06 2012 13:31 JacobStrangelove wrote: Also on drazak he posted his twitter gave the option for photos about the move (yes going though the filters) and sleeps strange hours. He would have to be a master scum. For me He is town.
Sleeping strange hours and moving is townie? Drazak is pretty much a null read for me atm.
I am just saying he was mostly lurking day one but he had reasons. Sure he might be mafia with these same reasons but we are talking about real reasons that really happened. After that he has been much more active and helpful, this was not the extent of it though read the post right above this and you see my comment about pushing such a solid townie at the time. This said there has been some discussion over kush at the moment now that things have calmed down. (will get to this later)
On September 06 2012 17:15 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: 1. I just wanted to include it so that my post would be a fair representation of your suspicion of KillingTime (the post might be helpful later).
Fair enough.
On September 06 2012 17:15 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
2. Could you provide a post where you explain those town reads clearly? Your writing is really confusing so you need to straight that up.
I will list the townish people most I have given reasons for before. Sonic Myself! Imcasey Drazak Killingtime(but I am watching him with a 10 foot pole) Kreb This leaves Stutters Kville xatalos and kush just now (who I am becoming aware of) Looking at this list kush defends stutters by avoiding talking about him (see drazaks post) this also leaves us seeing xatalos semi defending stutters. Kville is nowhere.
See with a list like this town and scum you can see the links. A kush stutters xalalos team could be the answer. I would vote stutters instead of kville as if we vote kville we get nothing from he flip but you can see what we would gain from a stutters flip.
HOWEVER stutters just posted turning my thoughts to confusion. To be open I will post this the way it was going to be but including stuff referring to the stutters thing. He says we won’t gain from a stutters flip if he flips town. If he flips scum however we would gain everything. So he says lynch killing. If killing flips mafia then I am probably confirmed town “yay” but if he flips green town town will instant lynch me. Which if stutters is mafia would win the game. Also would like to point out that a lynch on kville reveals nothing as well. Associative cases are pretty bad I must admit but they can provide a little information.
On September 06 2012 17:15 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: 3. Why were you attacking KillingTimes though? Please explain the reason you've been attacking him all game and what it was in his postings that made you think he looks more town now.
Btw it's really easy to slip away from questions by not quoting the post you're replying to, so please reply to these questions.
I was attacking killingtime because he seemed to be ignoring the things I said about him in favour of just posting reads. The reason I town read you is you seem to have responded better initially so I temporarily town read you. I was getting frustrated as his semi avoidant approach however as the game went on he started replying in a manner that I would expect. The reason I attacked you and killing time so much is I realised you both thought in the same manner so
1. If you were both mafia we were screwed unless I could force you to make a slip early. 2. By attacking him I could have more to look at 3. If I could confirm you guys town it would make scum hunting so much easier.
It wasn’t so much about scum slips you had made (I was just nitpicking) it was about forcing the two most scary people. Into a situation they probably would. Part of the reason I think he is town now is I haven’t found anything unusual in his postings. (Apart from a growing annoyance of me which is to be expected and I apologise for) Although there might be something in stutters case just now.
Drazak seems to be having the same idea
On September 06 2012 18:05 drazak wrote: Accusations are how you gain information, you pressure people, find out what they're thinking, see how they react. I was pressured; generally you guys decided my reaction was town. I pressured kush and he scumslipped and you're not doing anything, wow.
Although just a note kush is known for overreaction for no apparent reason. Yeah I understand, I was just really short for time at the time and wanted to get a post in reply up.
On a side note how long till lynch? I think the night period messed up my internal clock.
You did explain your reasoning of Cubu. And that was a very easy target to jump on, and its quite clear that both mafia and townies jumped on the wagon once it got rolling. So that is a 100% null-read.
During D2, you have provided two posts worth mentioning: 1st) Discussing the meta of Kville. Once again, this is the most likely target jump on given his behaviour. Could obviously be geniune suspicion, but you have to agree that should you be mafia, jumping on those two targets is a very easy thing to do. 2) Defense against KillingTime's accusation. While also adding a FoS back on him.
What you HAVE NOT done: - Responded in any way to the accusations on you by thrawn back on D1 and N1. Here, let me refresh your memory: + Show Spoiler +
On September 04 2012 16:26 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: You're saying we're focus too little on motives? The motive of flying under the radar is to just sit back while the town starts flinging poo on eachother. I'm still not sure what your motive of making generic posts was. Maybe someone who followed XXIV can chime in? Thrawn, it seems like you were playing that game?
I'm not exactly sure what you want me to chime in on but I'll talk about scumhunting priorities that you and stutters seem to be arguing about.
In XXIV, there was a massive shit-flinging fight between shady and I. There were people who thought shady was being completely illogical, and there were people who though I was being completely illogical. The vote was closely split between shady and I and shady ended up getting lynched. But the people who voted for either of us voted on the premise that illogical posting = scum. There weren't any good scum-motive explanations for either shady or my actions and the votes were completely based on "well this guy says dumb stuff." Then D2 I got lynched and flipped vigilante, and once again nobody was voting based off scum-motive suspicions. The case against me was that my vig claim was unbelievable, and there was an association case against me because another player and I had made extremely similar posts at the exact same time which made people think that we were in conversation with each other as scum. Meanwhile there was a player who had been saying extremely illogical stuff, but most people gave him a town read because they thought there'd be no way that a scum would be so illogical. His actual actions/votes were so extremely scummy throughout the whole game. However, people ignored that because they were spending too much time trying to make reads based on the quality of his posts, when instead they should have been looking at his motives behind the posts. The point is motives>quality of posts in terms of importance to making reads.
That was the reason I favored lynching stutters over cubu. They both were heavy lurkers without much actual contribution in the few posts they had made. The people who voted for cubu did it because the quality (reasoning, writing style, and relevance to the thread) of stutter's posts was much higher than cubu's. So in their eyes, having low quality posts (see my earlier definition of quality) makes you look scummy. I didn't think that was a good assumption to make, and I preferred voting stutters because stutters had done less scumhunting than cubu. At the time of deciding between the two, the only scumhunting stutters had done was the very last paragraph of this post. Cubu of course hadn't done as much scumhunting as most poeple, but his contributions towards finding scum were more than what stutters gave. It was a vote based on motives instead of quality... somebody who doesn't scumhunt (ask questions, state what you find scummy, accuse people with FOS and such) is not a town player.
- Shared any townreads throughout the whole game. - Shared any scumreads except for right now against KillingTime. - Explained your (relatively) low activity. - Scumhunted. Thats stuff you have NOT done.
To me, you're trying to create a Stutters vs KillingTime situation similar to Kush vs Drazak in attempt to create confusion. You. Are. Still. Not. Contributing. Though. Show us some reads and do it well. Actually, I'd argue this might be a good time for you to create a list (yay, list discussion!) with your complete reads on everyone.
As for my opinion of Stutters. He is 2nd on my vote list, well ahead of everyone except Kville. Those two stand out big time to me.
He's appeared pretty active all game and trying to contribute. However when I look closer at the posts I don't see the same feeling I get from an overview of them.
On September 02 2012 23:09 KillingTime wrote: When we call for an “active” thread - I think what we mean is players making logical cases and then responding to them.
Here are my current reads so far. I would consider them weak ( esp as we have players who have hardly/not posted yet), but if they are not addressed in later play then I will be concerned - :
Scummy: SonicDeathMonkey: I appreciate your efforts to keep the thread ordered and moving along. But, that is a nice null read at best. Your posting reads too much like scum trying to push others along without much substantive play in the hope that it will create a nice wagon to jump on or an outspoken townie you can target. You must stop trying to play threadcop and post some original reads with better reasoning.
JacobStrangelove: Almost every post in your filter thus far is wishy washy and lacking in any content - your conclusion on lynching lurkers? It comes down to instinct. On nolynch day one: You disagree(only acceptable response to that dumb question) - but do “know what you mean”. On my first post? “Maybe it was pointless.. but on the flip side”. You have managed to be active without any content on even the most innocuous of debates - scummy until you get more involved with the thread.
WeeTee - I agree with thrawn that only a fluffy first post, is now hard to justify now that there has been some discussion. Needs to follow up with a better second post. Weetee can stand in for anyone else who has not posted as well, at this point we have enough of a thread that just a fluff post is not a good entrance.
Towny: thrawn Xatalos Both have posted good content, logically reasoned.
Unsure: Kushm4sta’s posting so far confuses me. I need to think about them more/see what else he posts before I develop any kind of read.
Fluff: - I have never watched the TV show the flavour for this game is based on - so please don’t make any jokes and expect me to understand them.
His second post in the game is his best one (Calls out lurkers, poses questions to Jacob and Sonic). When Jacob didn't answer in a satisfactory way he called him out for it and got Jacob to answer. I'm assuming he felt Jacob's reads were sufficient at that point since he doesn't bring it up again. With Sonic Death Monkey he calls him out and once Sonic answers he immediately drops any suspicions.
These were his only reads and he dropped them after short responses from the people. The rest of this post was simplying saying lurking is scummy and these guys I feel are town off of their few posts.
On September 03 2012 16:21 KillingTime wrote: Good morning all - ATM the player who I am most suspicious of is the one who has attempted to make a contribution to the thread but did so with a post that gave us no opinions or information that we didn't already have. I want to see if he is capable of at least trying to make posts that are interesting/valuable or if he is scum and just trying to skirt around beeing seen as a "lurker". I don't want the to be any trains started without one of them being Him because his style suggests so far that he might just come back and jump on one at the back.
##Vote WeeTee
On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote: I kind of feel that a kville lynch would be similar to a kush lynch. We seem to agree that for a mafia to go out and make the d1 posts that kush did would be very gambley/spaz mafia play. Well, the same thing surely applies to Kville - I don't like the fact he is lurking like a submarine - but at this point, given how every active player has repeatedly stressed that they want town to be posting - the total refusal of kville to do that kind of makes me think there are better lynch targets (atleast for d1, d2 is a different story and kville is certainly going to need a good explanation and good d2 play if he does survive).
On a percentage basis I think it is more likely that cuba or weetee or stutters (who never asked those "questions" he was promising) or drazak are scum who have realised their mistake and are trying to cover for it - rather than kville who is being such a blatant lurk.
Weetee says that "In my opinion my previous post is succinct of my town reads and its what I wanted to say which should be valued by everyone as a whole"
My point was that I did not think your town reads added much to the thread, partly because I am very sceptical of "meta" reads at this point given that we all have 3 or less games. I could persuaded to change my vote off you given that others have not agreed with me, but to do so I do need to hear from you not about who you think is town - but who you think is scum!
On September 04 2012 05:32 KillingTime wrote: Weetee are you around? I made a request earlier for you to do some scumhunting and I would really like to see some before the deadline/I comment more...
I am ignoring Kville for the moment... I think the quality of his posts is self evident, but he is just a distraction atm.
On September 04 2012 06:31 KillingTime wrote: I assume EOD is "evening of deadline"?
Yawn - Ok... I am going to ignore Kville for the moment because his posting is useless.
At this point I am happy to get on Kush's Cubu wagon. He has made a cogent case for why Cubu is a decent lynch and has offered up a plausible reason (meta) why he prefers him to Weetee. I have said already that I am sceptical of the value of meta in a newbie game, but looking back at the thread I can't honestly say I have a better case on Weetee than Kush does on Cubu and all day 1 reads are fairly weak by necessity.
Weetee still remains in my mind though and I certainly will want to examine him again D2. He has ignored/not seen/not yet answered my request, but I assume he will see it when he comes to vote soonish assuming he does not want to get modkilled. As I will be asleep for the lynch - gl town.
Again he calls out a lurker and votes WeeTee. No real analysis, just "hey you haven't posted." Finally to end D1 he sheeps onto Kush's case on Cubu [More on this later] (Posts in spoilers). Notice how up until this point he hasn't comitted to a single lynch except wanting to lynch WeeTee for lurking? Despite all of his posting throughout Day 1, he really only managed to get a couple sentences out of Jacob and Sonic and bring up a lurker constantly (any scum could just as easily do that as a town, null read).
Day 2 consists of more of the same. No reads or cases until this post: + Show Spoiler +
On September 05 2012 17:57 KillingTime wrote: @Kreb: I would consider kush & sonic (who i suspect d1 but for weak reasons and who has played well since then) to be the most town players at the moment, with Kreb & drazak someway behind them. They are all active and seem to be trying to help town. But many of them seem to be abit at loggerheads so I want to go through filters this afternoon and see whether I still agree with these reads.
I agree my post last night was broad/reluctant. That is because I broadly agree about kville, but really hope we can do better because even if kville is mafia he is the weakest member of the mafia as well in terms of finding the whole mafia team.
In terms of those I am suspicious of at the moment:
Weetee/imcasey - No change since my last post when I said they were null for the moment (perhaps jacob did not read that post?) and that the need for replacement might have explained what I found scummy about them, but that I would be watching closely. I am not sure how this can be seen as “bandwagoning with xtalos” as Jacob has suggested. If you look at Xatalos’s vote he voted for Cubu early, when I was still voting for wetee.. which hardly seems like bandwagon activity to me.
Jacob - I am trying hard to be objective about you and not fall into an OMGUS trap just because you are pushing me. But, I really dislike your play-style, posts like this one:
Well this does bring an interesting side to it. While what he said makes sense, the benifit we would gain from confirmed town was lost when that confirmed town died. Also Kush is going for Xatalos, now. (which I partly agree with) also xatalos (and myself) did go on the cuba wagon when it was tied up. So my theory that Killing Xatalos having a gamble scum (kville or stutters) could be correct. But then does that make Kush innocent? Also we lost the two that were going for drazak, so is drazak scum protecting himself with NK and lynch? (information over load). He goes for kush when kush goes at Xataos. Is he the third scum, and kiville a spazzy town, along with stutters? There is just to many possibilitys it's annoying.
seem to be designed just to confuse townies while saying almost nothing of value. At this point in the game town has very little information, so we can dream up any number of scenarios to second guess the mafia actions, I don’t think that kind of theorycrafting will help us catch scum.
Your current argument seems to be that Xatalos & I are/were attempting to bus weetee/imcasey because I was more suspicious of him (unknown alignment) over cubu (confirmed town) on d1. I find this argument hard to understand and it seems more driven by your suspicions/attempts to smear me.
Xatalos - I don't know what to make of the fact that jacob is pushing him alongside me. But, I would like him to explain why he thinks that Stutters695 is a much weaker case than imcasey, given that the need to be replaced seems to count in Weetees/imcaseys favour but not in his on d1 and there has been little from either of them on d2.
Kville/Stutters - yep these two guys exist, not much more you can say about either unless stutters decides to be helpful (I have no hope with kville)
Again more non-committal thoughts. He still hasn't tried to make a case on anyone until his case on me.
Now the issues with the case on me that tie into his posting habits in general. Up until the case on me he hasn't posted a valid train of thoughts as to why someone is scum. It has all been one liners and individual quotes which he doesn't even pressure after asking.
He says earlier in his filter "but looking back at the thread I can't honestly say I have a better case on Weetee than Kush does on Cubu and all day 1 reads are fairly weak by necessity." He claims Kush's case on Cubu was better than his on WeeTee yet now he is trying to pin Kush as scum proxied through me for pushing a case on Cubu instead of me. If he is so suspicious of me he should make a case on me not "well Stutters hasn't been active so he's better than the other lurkers because if he's scum then these people might be scum." That is the exact same thing he is accusing Kush of doing. Once again he has appeared active without actually producing anything but a completely WIFOM case that will fall apart once I flip town and he'll just say "oh I guess I was wrong but I really wasn't 100% sure and it made sense so it's not my fault."
My question to Killing Time is who would your #1 scum read outside of me be and most importantly WHY.
The case is associative but also not entirely based on it. Kreb has made his points (very good points in particularLook at these and respond) killing his and I mine.. (Although you confused me half way through it when you posted{and lol list discussion -_-}) and also your point about if you flip town we get nothing isn't entirely true. Will put a bad light on killing and several others and I am sure we would have enough time looking at day one and day two to get a mafia lynch. While we would be in a bad spot if you are town if killing is town you or I get lynched the next day (probably and let’s be honest that would be a good decision) One of us is probably town (considering my interaction with you{you hardly posted so you haven’t interacted with me}) So it would likely result in a mafia win. However what happens if someone flips is often speculation so not a great defence or argument. For example we thought (or at least I did) cubu flipping would give us something....
I am going to bed in around 6 hours. If you haven't responded to krebs points in particular in a proper way I will likely vote you over kville. (as kville was the backup after all)
On September 06 2012 18:56 Kreb wrote: To Stutters
You did explain your reasoning of Cubu. And that was a very easy target to jump on, and its quite clear that both mafia and townies jumped on the wagon once it got rolling. So that is a 100% null-read.
During D2, you have provided two posts worth mentioning: 1st) Discussing the meta of Kville. Once again, this is the most likely target jump on given his behaviour. Could obviously be geniune suspicion, but you have to agree that should you be mafia, jumping on those two targets is a very easy thing to do. 2) Defense against KillingTime's accusation. While also adding a FoS back on him.
What you HAVE NOT done: - Responded in any way to the accusations on you by thrawn back on D1 and N1. Here, let me refresh your memory: + Show Spoiler +
On September 04 2012 16:26 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: You're saying we're focus too little on motives? The motive of flying under the radar is to just sit back while the town starts flinging poo on eachother. I'm still not sure what your motive of making generic posts was. Maybe someone who followed XXIV can chime in? Thrawn, it seems like you were playing that game?
I'm not exactly sure what you want me to chime in on but I'll talk about scumhunting priorities that you and stutters seem to be arguing about.
In XXIV, there was a massive shit-flinging fight between shady and I. There were people who thought shady was being completely illogical, and there were people who though I was being completely illogical. The vote was closely split between shady and I and shady ended up getting lynched. But the people who voted for either of us voted on the premise that illogical posting = scum. There weren't any good scum-motive explanations for either shady or my actions and the votes were completely based on "well this guy says dumb stuff." Then D2 I got lynched and flipped vigilante, and once again nobody was voting based off scum-motive suspicions. The case against me was that my vig claim was unbelievable, and there was an association case against me because another player and I had made extremely similar posts at the exact same time which made people think that we were in conversation with each other as scum. Meanwhile there was a player who had been saying extremely illogical stuff, but most people gave him a town read because they thought there'd be no way that a scum would be so illogical. His actual actions/votes were so extremely scummy throughout the whole game. However, people ignored that because they were spending too much time trying to make reads based on the quality of his posts, when instead they should have been looking at his motives behind the posts. The point is motives>quality of posts in terms of importance to making reads.
That was the reason I favored lynching stutters over cubu. They both were heavy lurkers without much actual contribution in the few posts they had made. The people who voted for cubu did it because the quality (reasoning, writing style, and relevance to the thread) of stutter's posts was much higher than cubu's. So in their eyes, having low quality posts (see my earlier definition of quality) makes you look scummy. I didn't think that was a good assumption to make, and I preferred voting stutters because stutters had done less scumhunting than cubu. At the time of deciding between the two, the only scumhunting stutters had done was the very last paragraph of this post. Cubu of course hadn't done as much scumhunting as most poeple, but his contributions towards finding scum were more than what stutters gave. It was a vote based on motives instead of quality... somebody who doesn't scumhunt (ask questions, state what you find scummy, accuse people with FOS and such) is not a town player.
- Shared any townreads throughout the whole game. - Shared any scumreads except for right now against KillingTime. - Explained your (relatively) low activity. - Scumhunted. Thats stuff you have NOT done.
To me, you're trying to create a Stutters vs KillingTime situation similar to Kush vs Drazak in attempt to create confusion. You. Are. Still. Not. Contributing. Though. Show us some reads and do it well. Actually, I'd argue this might be a good time for you to create a list (yay, list discussion!) with your complete reads on everyone.
As for my opinion of Stutters. He is 2nd on my vote list, well ahead of everyone except Kville. Those two stand out big time to me.
Townreads are worthless. I'd rather suspect everyone who isn't confirmed rather than risk having a "town feel" on someone and completely overlook a scumslip because they're townie to me. It also gives the scum a grasp on where they sit in relation to everyone else.
I work 30-40 hours a week and am a full time student in my Junior year. Trying to explain why I'm not here isn't really relevant when if you believe that is determined by if you believe I'm town or not.
There really isn't much to respond to on Thrawn's case. He felt I was more scummy than Cubu, obviously I know I'm not. I'm giving you my best reads right now, there isn't much more I can do than that.
On September 06 2012 19:42 Stutters695 wrote: Townreads are worthless. I'd rather suspect everyone who isn't confirmed rather than risk having a "town feel" on someone and completely overlook a scumslip because they're townie to me. It also gives the scum a grasp on where they sit in relation to everyone else.
Very good time to reveal your disdain for townreads I must say. But very well. I could argue about your claims being bad, but I cant really argue about whether you truly believe what you say or make it up. So this didnt put you in a worse spot to me. Not better either though, as it was a very standard reply from what you'd expect.
On September 06 2012 19:42 Stutters695 wrote: I work 30-40 hours a week and am a full time student in my Junior year. Trying to explain why I'm not here isn't really relevant when if you believe that is determined by if you believe I'm town or not.
Same here really. Cant double check what you do IRL. Standard reply. Neither putting you in a better nor worse light.
On September 06 2012 19:42 Stutters695 wrote: There really isn't much to respond to on Thrawn's case. He felt I was more scummy than Cubu, obviously I know I'm not. I'm giving you my best reads right now, there isn't much more I can do than that.
This, however, does put you in worse light. There is much to respond? Why on earth would a townie not feel the need to respond to accusation?!?! And you are not giving me your best reads, you're giving us a read on KillingTime. Singular. And yes, there is certainly more things you could do.
Overall score: -1 to your towncred for the last part good Sir.
On September 06 2012 17:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 06 2012 13:31 JacobStrangelove wrote: Also on drazak he posted his twitter gave the option for photos about the move (yes going though the filters) and sleeps strange hours. He would have to be a master scum. For me He is town.
Sleeping strange hours and moving is townie? Drazak is pretty much a null read for me atm.
I am just saying he was mostly lurking day one but he had reasons. Sure he might be mafia with these same reasons but we are talking about real reasons that really happened. After that he has been much more active and helpful, this was not the extent of it though read the post right above this and you see my comment about pushing such a solid townie at the time. This said there has been some discussion over kush at the moment now that things have calmed down. (will get to this later)
On September 06 2012 17:15 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: 1. I just wanted to include it so that my post would be a fair representation of your suspicion of KillingTime (the post might be helpful later).
On September 06 2012 17:15 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
2. Could you provide a post where you explain those town reads clearly? Your writing is really confusing so you need to straight that up.
I will list the townish people most I have given reasons for before. Sonic Myself! Imcasey Drazak Killingtime(but I am watching him with a 10 foot pole) Kreb This leaves Stutters Kville xatalos and kush just now (who I am becoming aware of) Looking at this list kush defends stutters by avoiding talking about him (see drazaks post) this also leaves us seeing xatalos semi defending stutters. Kville is nowhere.
See with a list like this town and scum you can see the links. A kush stutters xalalos team could be the answer. I would vote stutters instead of kville as if we vote kville we get nothing from he flip but you can see what we would gain from a stutters flip.
HOWEVER stutters just posted turning my thoughts to confusion. To be open I will post this the way it was going to be but including stuff referring to the stutters thing. He says we won’t gain from a stutters flip if he flips town. If he flips scum however we would gain everything. So he says lynch killing. If killing flips mafia then I am probably confirmed town “yay” but if he flips green town town will instant lynch me. Which if stutters is mafia would win the game. Also would like to point out that a lynch on kville reveals nothing as well. Associative cases are pretty bad I must admit but they can provide a little information.
On September 06 2012 17:15 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: 3. Why were you attacking KillingTimes though? Please explain the reason you've been attacking him all game and what it was in his postings that made you think he looks more town now.
Btw it's really easy to slip away from questions by not quoting the post you're replying to, so please reply to these questions.
I was attacking killingtime because he seemed to be ignoring the things I said about him in favour of just posting reads. The reason I town read you is you seem to have responded better initially so I temporarily town read you. I was getting frustrated as his semi avoidant approach however as the game went on he started replying in a manner that I would expect. The reason I attacked you and killing time so much is I realised you both thought in the same manner so
1. If you were both mafia we were screwed unless I could force you to make a slip early. 2. By attacking him I could have more to look at 3. If I could confirm you guys town it would make scum hunting so much easier.
It wasn’t so much about scum slips you had made (I was just nitpicking) it was about forcing the two most scary people. Into a situation they probably would. Part of the reason I think he is town now is I haven’t found anything unusual in his postings. (Apart from a growing annoyance of me which is to be expected and I apologise for) Although there might be something in stutters case just now.
On September 06 2012 18:05 drazak wrote: Accusations are how you gain information, you pressure people, find out what they're thinking, see how they react. I was pressured; generally you guys decided my reaction was town. I pressured kush and he scumslipped and you're not doing anything, wow.
Although just a note kush is known for overreaction for no apparent reason. Yeah I understand, I was just really short for time at the time and wanted to get a post in reply up.
On a side note how long till lynch? I think the night period messed up my internal clock.
First and foremost I didn't say vote KillingTime. I want him to explain his lack of real contribution despite his long posts. This is exactly what I was talking about with lists. I'm not convinced he's scum but I want him to explain his non-committal attitude. You appear active and its a good guise to hide behind. I'm having a hard time understanding the rest of your points but I'll try to address them.
When I flip town all you gain is that KillingTime pushed my lynch. This alone doesn't guarantee he's scum. You need to focus on the motivations behind posts. He could be a misguided townie which hands scum the game. If Killing gets lynched because of my post and he's town and they lynch me because of it and I'm Mafia, Mafia doesn't win the game. With a mislynch today we're at 5/3 which makes it mylo tomorrow. So if they lynched me and I'm mafia they're at 4/2 and still at mylo. There is no way this can be a powerplay from a scum me to ensure scum wins tonight.
A lynch on Kville reveals nothing major either, true. But what it does is ensure that if he's town we don't have an idle town causing doubts during mylos for the rest of the game. That's what happened in Mini III and eventually they lynched him and cost them the game. There is also precedent in NMM for scum this bad (Thrawn mentions it in the post Kreb quoted).
On September 06 2012 19:42 Stutters695 wrote: Townreads are worthless. I'd rather suspect everyone who isn't confirmed rather than risk having a "town feel" on someone and completely overlook a scumslip because they're townie to me. It also gives the scum a grasp on where they sit in relation to everyone else.
Very good time to reveal your disdain for townreads I must say. But very well. I could argue about your claims being bad, but I cant really argue about whether you truly believe what you say or make it up. So this didnt put you in a worse spot to me. Not better either though, as it was a very standard reply from what you'd expect.
On September 06 2012 19:42 Stutters695 wrote: I work 30-40 hours a week and am a full time student in my Junior year. Trying to explain why I'm not here isn't really relevant when if you believe that is determined by if you believe I'm town or not.
Same here really. Cant double check what you do IRL. Standard reply. Neither putting you in a better nor worse light.
On September 06 2012 19:42 Stutters695 wrote: There really isn't much to respond to on Thrawn's case. He felt I was more scummy than Cubu, obviously I know I'm not. I'm giving you my best reads right now, there isn't much more I can do than that.
This, however, does put you in worse light. There is much to respond? Why on earth would a townie not feel the need to respond to accusation?!?! And you are not giving me your best reads, you're giving us a read on KillingTime. Singular. And yes, there is certainly more things you could do.
Overall score: -1 to your towncred for the last part good Sir.
Please explain what is great about giving townreads? I have no reason currently to suspect you're scum but lets assume you were. Everyone in the game comes out as a town read on you and now you know you're in a position of leadership and can probably lead a mislynch/maybe two without really risking yourself. That isn't pro-town. Town reads do nothing except provide an easy way for people to contribute without actually saying anything of value. Check my previous game where I'm town, there's not a single town-read until mylo where we had to make assumptions. If you can give me a good reason to share them I gladly will but I can't see one.
There isn't much to respond to regarding Thrawn. He felt I was more scummy than Cubu because the other townies were giving me too much credit for a more intelligent style of posting and that doesn't equate to being more town. I agree with that. However I didn't have time to post a bunch of cases day 1. I can't change that now so that is completely up to the person how the view my day 1. I'm attempting to fix that now. Like I've been saying all game your reads should be based off of motivations, not associations or minor things you find suspicious. You should pressure them for suspicious lines but to lynch someone off of one or two is foolish after day 1 (when there is significantly more to build off of).
Regarding my read on KillingTown other than Kville who I've made my thoughts clear I don't like KillingTown's completely noncommittal play so far. I'm trying to post other reads but when I have to answer 3 people drilling questions into every response I have I haven't had time to stop and figure out what I want to ask my other top reads.
Ok so a little less than 14 hours until lynch time, and our suspicions are still everywhere... Please table the talk about possible scumteams. I have been guilty of doing this kind of thinking myself, but I agree it is useless until one flips scum. Keep it to yourself until then.
When I list a few people who I want the town to focus on I'm not trying to divert attention away from others. I'm just trying to help the town. Who is it today? Xatalos and stutters? And maybe myself since drazzak has an epic hard on for me lately? Can we at least get a preliminary vote? Waiting until the last second to bandwagon someone isn't a bad strategy, because it forces scum to act fast, but I don't think it's doable with all these eurofags. ##vote xatalos NB this is not my final vote...
On September 06 2012 03:39 imcasey wrote: Im trying my best on reading myself up and contribute with some good content, i feel im getting a better view now and i feel im not as hot as i were before my first post where i suspected kushm4sta as people see i try to contribute, only reason iv been suspected is because of teewee`s actions or non actions before i stepped in.
I dont understand why you are attacking me so much xatalos You are saying I don't think I've ever said that WeeTee was much more likely Mafia than Stutters695
some sentence later you are saying :
imcasey just feels a bit more suspect (based on WeeTee's seriously suspicious approach of giving only neutral and slight town reads behind fluffy walls of text)
Also looking trough your filter, your saying : It's so very easy to say things like "I'll post something useful closer to the deadline". As Mafia, it's the perfect situation: you can observe the thread and then start pushing someone who would have been lynched anyway
looking at what you said in your last post :
I'll be reading filters and hopefully coming to some new findings before morning.
I think you played well, but you lost track of all your bluffing, i think you are mafia.
Seriously ? I feel i have a solid case here, and not a single one of you have replied to anything of what i wrote. I encourage everyone to read my post again, is it only me that think iv got a pretty solid case here ? I am sure Xatalos is mafia and he will be my vote.
Other people i am suspicios about :
Kville
Few post`s, none of them contributing. Seems to just be lurking, Kville you need to come with some contributing post`s and be more active.
Townread
JacobStrangelove
He is active, write post with good content, not afraid to share his thoughts or get in a fight. Very townie for me.
On September 06 2012 20:07 Stutters695 wrote: Please explain what is great about giving townreads?
Putting the answer in spoilers again because I consider the benefit/drawback discussion of townreads to be kinda off topic for the purpose of scumhunting. Especially with limited time left until D2 lynch.
-By giving townreads you show that you actively think about who is town and mafia, which mafia obviously doesnt have to do because they already know everything. -Its also a committal, by sharing your reads you show that you are willing to share your opinions of other and that you are open to people questioning these reads. A mafia would love to be able to sit silent and not commit to any (or as few as possible) reads. -Not to mention the fact that as a townie you wanna confirm as many other townies as possible. Both because then you know you can trust these players' motives and trust their opinions to be genuine, and also of course because instead of having to guess the mafia players among all active players, you can eliminate a few a and focus on the remaining when scumhunting. -It might help people if you die. If I die but people use my reads to finish the game in favor of town, thats awesome.
Feel free to reply to any of these points. I'd prefer if you did it in spoilers to not turn it into a discussion. No matter if you reply to this or not, I wont reply to it more. My take on townreads shouldnt really be a matter of discussion when we're in it for the scumhunting.
On September 06 2012 20:07 Stutters695 wrote: Please explain what is great about giving townreads?
Putting the answer in spoilers again because I consider the benefit/drawback discussion of townreads to be kinda off topic for the purpose of scumhunting. Especially with limited time left until D2 lynch.
-By giving townreads you show that you actively think about who is town and mafia, which mafia obviously doesnt have to do because they already know everything. -Its also a committal, by sharing your reads you show that you are willing to share your opinions of other and that you are open to people questioning these reads. A mafia would love to be able to sit silent and not commit to any (or as few as possible) reads. -Not to mention the fact that as a townie you wanna confirm as many other townies as possible. Both because then you know you can trust these players' motives and trust their opinions to be genuine, and also of course because instead of having to guess the mafia players among all active players, you can eliminate a few a and focus on the remaining when scumhunting. -It might help people if you die. If I die but people use my reads to finish the game in favor of town, thats awesome.
Feel free to reply to any of these points. I'd prefer if you did it in spoilers to not turn it into a discussion. No matter if you reply to this or not, I wont reply to it more. My take on townreads shouldnt really be a matter of discussion when we're in it for the scumhunting.
I actually like the committal part. Hadn't really accounted for that. Although I still don't think its a strong as scum reads because its much easier for a questionable post to drop someone's town-cred than it is to gain it so these are much easier to back off of.
Most people I honestly have doubts about but I've got a strong town read on you due to your incessant questioning and not backing down until you've made up your mind. Without a doubt the most pro-town player so far d2.
I've got a slight town read on Sonic Death Monkey and Jacob but I would have to reread filters and double check. Those are more from an overview than scrutiny. I'm tired as hell at the moment so I'll go more into that when I wake up.
My current top 4 reads:
Kville - Adressed before. I think keeping him in is a mistake longterm. Currently he's my number 1 vote.
KillingTime - See my previous posts. Currently my number 2 read. Need to hear his responses before I'm sold however.
Kush - I need to reread the cases on him and his filter but I really want to see an answer to this post of drazak:
On September 06 2012 17:28 drazak wrote: Alright, I was afk most of the day.
First I'd like to point something out about Kush's posting behavior, he tries to downplay my accusations, and say that my case is bad, deciding that there is almost no case against him in his first responding post. Kush goes on to make /4/ posts responding to my accusation and then accusing me. In his posts, he either delays replying to me, which if my argument is weak, makes no sense, it should be simple to pick apart. In the meantime, I've been afk and have made 0. This seems like a bit over an overreaction if he's innocent and my accusation is weak. + Show Spoiler +
You sir, have made a big slip, every time you're accused you throw it right back at your accuser, this is the weakest of the defenses, espescially when your case is weak.
I urge the rest of the town to actually look at my arguments, instead of dismissing them as a weak case, look through kush's filter, and the posts I've described and linked, he's made a large scumslip here, at first my accusations were fairly tenative due to having only moderate evidence, but instead of his defense making my case weaker, he's made it stronger.
P.S. sorry for taking so long to post, was going to hours ago and then had dinner with a friend, when I got home I had other stuff to do on my other pc, and then fell asleep for a little after I got my laptop out.
Additionally, I don't care who you think the town has a consensus on for possible lynch candidates today. If you had to consolidate the town votes onto 3 people who would your third be and why?
Xatalos - Easily my 4th although him and Kush are interchangable for the most part in order. Xatalos spends all of his time defending and not actually finding scum. He's mia, promising explanations for his vote on imcasey and cubu but not providing. I'm currently not sure if I believe that he has 0 time because of the military. I need to look into this more but its very suspicious to me at the moment.
Anyway that said I need to go to bed for a bit. I'll be back somewhere between 9-5 hours from lynch depending on when I wake up and take care of some errands. I'll definitely be here before lynchtime though.
Currently though my best vote is without a doubt on Kville
On September 06 2012 03:39 imcasey wrote: Im trying my best on reading myself up and contribute with some good content, i feel im getting a better view now and i feel im not as hot as i were before my first post where i suspected kushm4sta as people see i try to contribute, only reason iv been suspected is because of teewee`s actions or non actions before i stepped in.
I dont understand why you are attacking me so much xatalos You are saying I don't think I've ever said that WeeTee was much more likely Mafia than Stutters695
some sentence later you are saying :
imcasey just feels a bit more suspect (based on WeeTee's seriously suspicious approach of giving only neutral and slight town reads behind fluffy walls of text)
Also looking trough your filter, your saying : It's so very easy to say things like "I'll post something useful closer to the deadline". As Mafia, it's the perfect situation: you can observe the thread and then start pushing someone who would have been lynched anyway
looking at what you said in your last post :
I'll be reading filters and hopefully coming to some new findings before morning.
I think you played well, but you lost track of all your bluffing, i think you are mafia.
Seriously ? I feel i have a solid case here, and not a single one of you have replied to anything of what i wrote. I encourage everyone to read my post again, is it only me that think iv got a pretty solid case here ? I am sure Xatalos is mafia and he will be my vote.
You do have a point he used a phrase which he previously said he considered scummy. However, a point doesnt equal a good case. To me, you're drawing way too big conclusions based off a small point. Cases are made with throughout reasoning and multiple points. You're putting too much weight on this one read.
Your wording also supports this. You say you are "sure Xatalos is mafia". And you only offer one point before you come to the conclusion. Thats not really critical thinking. I could probably find similar miss-steps in writing among most players here if I really wanted. Hell, I've offered quite extensive cases and I'm doubtful if I'd go as far as to say Im "sure" of anything.
In short: Make your cases more extensive. Theres nothing wrong with your point (actually, I do agree its with the point, its a bit wierd he used something he said himself is scummy), but overall I wouldnt call your case strong at all.
OK people I think we can agree should not be brought up before lynch, simply because it's a waste of time since these people are never going to be lynched in 13 hours: Killingtime Sonic Jacob Kreb I would also like to add myself to this list but seems biased to do so.
I think killing's filter does look suspicious and we should resume discussion of him tomorrow.
On September 06 2012 17:28 drazak wrote: Alright, I was afk most of the day.
First I'd like to point something out about Kush's posting behavior, he tries to downplay my accusations, and say that my case is bad, deciding that there is almost no case against him in his first responding post. Kush goes on to make /4/ posts responding to my accusation and then accusing me. In his posts, he either delays replying to me, which if my argument is weak, makes no sense, it should be simple to pick apart. In the meantime, I've been afk and have made 0. This seems like a bit over an overreaction if he's innocent and my accusation is weak. + Show Spoiler +
You sir, have made a big slip, every time you're accused you throw it right back at your accuser, this is the weakest of the defenses, espescially when your case is weak.
I urge the rest of the town to actually look at my arguments, instead of dismissing them as a weak case, look through kush's filter, and the posts I've described and linked, he's made a large scumslip here, at first my accusations were fairly tenative due to having only moderate evidence, but instead of his defense making my case weaker, he's made it stronger.
P.S. sorry for taking so long to post, was going to hours ago and then had dinner with a friend, when I got home I had other stuff to do on my other pc, and then fell asleep for a little after I got my laptop out.
OK stutters. So drazzak's argument here, which you can read yourself, I can summarize as thus: I say his argument is weak then I take 4 posts to defend it. Also I accuse him which makes me scum because accusing your attacker is bad defence. my reply: I still think your attack on me was bad, and if you look for closely I only put up 1 defence post for each of your attack posts. You say you were afk and had 0 posts in between my 4 posts, but that is incorrect. You have 2 substantially lengthed posts and I made 1 post each in defense of those.
[*]http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16133744 This was my post in defense of your first post.
[*]http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16133615 This had nothing to do with you. It was just talking about how we need a plan and to stay focused day 2.
[*]http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16144834 This is not a defense. It is actually just suspicion of you. Yes I am suspicious of you and yes that is partly because you accused me. However my suspicions of you honestly are not that strong. I hope you are town and I hope I get lynched just so you can see how bad of a player you are. I think you are really bad at this game also you piss me off. ANYWAY moving on.
[*]http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16140589 the 4th post you bring up is another defense, but that is actually in response to another, separate attacking post from you, which I quote in my post. You were not afk across those 4 posts.
Also i did not attack you as my defense. Actually I tried to keep my posts attacking you (which their haven't been much of) and my arguments for defense separate.
@Stutters does that satisfy you or is there something else?
Also can people please focus on those who have a possibility of getting lynched today! Drazzak and stutters and whoever if you have suspicions of me can it wait until night? Because honestly I don't think a bandwagon on me at this point is even possible.
I am really conflicted between Stutters and Killing Time. I have been trying to get killing lynched all game but thought stutters was safer for lurking. However lurkers that make sence are something to consider. Killing is very non commital he has always been non commital. I realise while he hasn't slipped up is probably because he hasn't done anything. Oh and thanks casey I have no problem getting in a fight xD.
Stutters is actually making good points, like, really good points about killing. I have known something was up with killing all game and lets be honest while he hasn't defended himself the best it's ok for the moment (stutters). So until killing shows back up I actually have to vote for him. (although I hate the early force vote ;()
I will however continue to look into xatalos and kville but as I have said before I don't agree with kville lynch. Completely not final still need to check things but we should start voting early like you said (I think kush?) I will probably end up voting Killing or Xatalos
First, if you feel I have been non-committal or weak in my play then I can only apologise and say this is my first game and I am definitely learning as I go. That is not an excuse, but it is the most likely explanation for "weak" town play on my part. I think Kreb, Drazak & Sonic are town, everyone else I am currently suspicious of.
I can't make a case that I am satisfied with on any of the other players that is substantially different from the other cases at the moment. My post on Stutters was also about Kush and Xatalos - both of whom ignored it - although Xatalos may just not have seen it. Kush is not getting lynched today because too much difficulty. I don't think Xatalos or Kville are bad lynches.
2. In regards to Jacob, yes I am still suspicious of him but his filter is hard, his posting style is mostly a ridiculous stream of conscience style where he links half a dozen disparate thoughts together in the same paragraph and it is a real pain to read. I would not say I "dropped" the issue however, I continue to complain about his posting style in my later posts and I am doing my best to keep slogging through his filter. But he was clearly not getting lynched day1 or today, unless I developed an incredible water-tight case, which I don't have. Soo I am letting him lie for the moment as I don't want to get distracted with yet another separate lynch target today. (He also responded to me pushing him early by essentially pushing, demanding answers and then saying "oh well I wasn't sure about you I was just pushing you for answers" - and now he is back to lynching me again. Obviously, to me this looks pretty scummy - but it is useless for building a case as at the very most 1 other player knows I am town)
I am back to lynching you again because of the non commital style and posts stutters brought up. It is the most likely explanation so it is one both town and mafia would use. Simmiar to Xatalos and his military issues. Also I wasn't not sure about you I was suspicious of you however not to a sure extent. However was satisfied by not having hard evidence until stutters brought up the non committal thing. All the things I mentioned before are slight circumstantial evidence posts which is why I am currently lynching you over xatalos. As xatalos just has the military/ not commital thing where as you have the non committal thing and all the circumstantial evidence posts.
The reason I am going for you currently is I prefer you over xatalos and xatalos over kville. Nobody else is on my list right now as stutters has appeared to be quite logical over the last few pages. I am using a style similar to the vote swapping style but without actually voting. (until now) Also combining this with the one player focus in a way. Admittedly I am doing this poorly. Link to scum hunting methods
Also the fact that it is a stream of conscience style would only work in my favour as town (while being hard to read for the others) as it means I am being completely open and saying what I think. If I was mafia I would have to be the most amazing genius there is to consistently drop these kinds of posts without giving a watertight case to anyone. Also can you stop abusing my filter It seems like an attempt to lower my credibility. While it is a unique style it’s not that bad is it?
I now have like 15 minutes to write this post, and I read the recent posts pretty fast, so I'm sorry I can't respond to questions very effectively. Tomorrow I'll arrive home and have the weekend free of program, though, so I'll be going through every question and filter in a detailed fashion.
It looks like imcasey started an all-out push against me suddenly. I'm not sure if that's a sign of cornered Mafia or overzealous town, but since it looks like an imcasey lynch isn't going to happen anyway, I'll let this development slide for the moment. Stutters has been making okay-looking posts recently as well. That leaves kville. He's been lurking hardcore and when he has rarely posted, his posts have been unhelpful and weak. Not just weak in terms of quality, but suspiciously motivated: full of useless fluff/spam and careful questioning, but no actual statements or hard (if any) stances towards... anything. As if he's hidden behind a wall of useless text. With that, I leave my vote:
##Unvote ##Vote kville
Not sure if I can post anymore in the next hours, but hopefully I'll be able to at least check back at the thread.
On September 05 2012 11:24 Xatalos wrote: I'm in extreme hurry right now, but some comments on the recent events...
Farewell thrawn2112, you will be missed :/ Can't say I'm too surprised about the night kill, though.
kushm4sta, you're severely underestimating my contributions. At the moment I have a pretty good case against Sonic Death Monkey and WeeTee (imcasey), and although the case against Sonic Death Monkey is a bit outdated, the case against WeeTee (imcasey) is quite good IMO. At least I think it's much stronger than the policy lynching of kville or the suspicions toward Stutters695. I agree that I could have been more active so far, but when I look at my own filter, I've scumhunted and/or pushed the discussion forward in every post. Much more than can be said about most players so far.
Now I have to leave, but I'll be able to post again later today. My vote is going for imcasey, as I previously reasoned. I'll be looking at each player's filters later today, though.
##Vote imcasey
(Btw, my vote for Cubu was in real hurry as well, so I indeed should have reasoned it better, but I just had no time. I'll get back to it later!)
Well WeeTee Did get replaced which could be the reason why he was playing so "safe" and conservative. He badnwagoned to avoid a modkill in order to fulfill the replacement, so it seems. The fact that there is little to no evidence other than "he was playing safe" doesn't really seem like a sure vote to go for, unless you are trying for another mislynch. You vote and leave the first day and you do it again the second time. It seems like your strategy seems to be "POP" then lurk. which seems a bit suspicious.
And making a Vigi shoot for a town for the reason of "just cuase" seems rather irresponsible and just loses a town at the end.
If there is a Vigilante, kville would make for a good shot.
You have a town read on me yet you still want to kill me off. Why lower the odds town in such a way?
#FoS Xatalos
He did say this about you though. Your motives for voting Imcasey were horrible (at the time at least, and imo still are) and he pointed it out. I too thought the just cause vig shot would be a very stupid idea. The vote on kville is a policy lynch (not without merit I might add) but you have been very flippent with your voting. Where did you lose your town read or is it still just a policy lynch? If it is a policy lynch and you don't think he is mafia you know where this would put us right? (well I understand bandwagoing to stay alive I guess) This is annoying because it looks like nobody is going to agree with my thoughts on killing so I set an alarm to wake me up 2 hours before the deadline. This should give me time to read the thread and make a decision.
On September 05 2012 11:24 Xatalos wrote: I'm in extreme hurry right now, but some comments on the recent events...
Farewell thrawn2112, you will be missed :/ Can't say I'm too surprised about the night kill, though.
kushm4sta, you're severely underestimating my contributions. At the moment I have a pretty good case against Sonic Death Monkey and WeeTee (imcasey), and although the case against Sonic Death Monkey is a bit outdated, the case against WeeTee (imcasey) is quite good IMO. At least I think it's much stronger than the policy lynching of kville or the suspicions toward Stutters695. I agree that I could have been more active so far, but when I look at my own filter, I've scumhunted and/or pushed the discussion forward in every post. Much more than can be said about most players so far.
Now I have to leave, but I'll be able to post again later today. My vote is going for imcasey, as I previously reasoned. I'll be looking at each player's filters later today, though.
##Vote imcasey
(Btw, my vote for Cubu was in real hurry as well, so I indeed should have reasoned it better, but I just had no time. I'll get back to it later!)
Well WeeTee Did get replaced which could be the reason why he was playing so "safe" and conservative. He badnwagoned to avoid a modkill in order to fulfill the replacement, so it seems. The fact that there is little to no evidence other than "he was playing safe" doesn't really seem like a sure vote to go for, unless you are trying for another mislynch. You vote and leave the first day and you do it again the second time. It seems like your strategy seems to be "POP" then lurk. which seems a bit suspicious.
And making a Vigi shoot for a town for the reason of "just cuase" seems rather irresponsible and just loses a town at the end.
I don't think kville is Mafia,
If there is a Vigilante, kville would make for a good shot.
You have a town read on me yet you still want to kill me off. Why lower the odds town in such a way?
#FoS Xatalos
He did say this about you though. Your motives for voting Imcasey were horrible (at the time at least, and imo still are) and he pointed it out. I too thought the just cause vig shot would be a very stupid idea. The vote on kville is a policy lynch (not without merit I might add) but you have been very flippent with your voting. Where did you lose your town read or is it still just a policy lynch? If it is a policy lynch and you don't think he is mafia you know where this would put us right? (well I understand bandwagoing to stay alive I guess) This is annoying because it looks like nobody is going to agree with my thoughts on killing so I set an alarm to wake me up 2 hours before the deadline. This should give me time to read the thread and make a decision.
I've read your case on Killing. Killing to me is one of those I dont think I have a read on. He hasnt been standing out neither by being overly agressive nor passive, neither by being very contributory nor by lacking contribution. Hes a solid neutral read to me. As such, theres a big "wait and see" sign on him. Givem the alternatives around, I wont vote on him.
Also, the vote on Kville is not a policy lynch anymore. As I've pointed out before, he has not even tried to defend himself. Theres absolutely no reason to not do that. Stutters replied when I went on him, Kush/Drazak are replying to each others attacks, Xatalos has replied too (albeit mostly excusing himself for his lack of time). Everyone who has been attacked HAS TRIED (some with better success, some with worse), except Kville.
On September 07 2012 00:01 KillingTime wrote: My post on Stutters was also about Kush and Xatalos - both of whom ignored it - although Xatalos may just not have seen it. Kush is not getting lynched today because too much difficulty. I don't think Xatalos or Kville are bad lynches.
Sorry I didn't really mean to ignore it, it's just that there are other more direct cases against me lately that I have spent my time addressing. You think I am diverting attention away from stutters? Well I do not think he is mafia and I think his posts are good and very pro town. He is kind of lurking, but in the beginning of the game he said his activity would be low. His posts have been pretty consistent and at the moment he is just a null read to me, leaning more towards town. What I have been trying to do is narrow down our lists of lynch candidates. Everyone has a different person they are accusing! So many of my recent posts have been about that. I would only vote stutters to prevent a no lynch situation. Is there a possibility he is scum? Definitely, but I think there are more suspicious people.
On September 07 2012 02:38 Kreb wrote: Also, the vote on Kville is not a policy lynch anymore. As I've pointed out before, he has not even tried to defend himself. Theres absolutely no reason to not do that. Stutters replied when I went on him, Kush/Drazak are replying to each others attacks, Xatalos has replied too (albeit mostly excusing himself for his lack of time). Everyone who has been attacked HAS TRIED (some with better success, some with worse), except Kville.
Kville is a lurker and he comes in and comments when he feels like it. Honestly I doubt has or will read the thread. Still a null read because that's just how this dbag acts. So I think it is a policy lynch. But having said that I would vote for him just because it doesn't seem like we are able to reach a good consensus. I would rather lynch XATALOS over him, however. Xatalos flipping green tells us more than kville flipping green IMO. Xatalos flipping red tells us WAY more than kville flipping red.
I think the top votes right now are xatalos with 2 votes and kville with 3. Can we agree on these two guys as our lynch candidates? If so people who haven't voted for them should say who they are going to vote for and why. If someone wants to make a bandwagon for someone else, you have to do it very quickly or you will be the only person voting for them.
Stutters, so you’re back posting. Nice to see. You’re making some good contributions as well. Of course, good contributions can be made by both townies and scum, but good contributions are what we need to solve this game so for now you deserve more time. I still think your contributions d1 sucked, but at this time I think having that discussion again would just be taking away focus from better lynching objects. What's left on my list of high suspects are Xatalos and Kville and I've just looked through their filters. I'll look read up on the latest case additions to the case against KillingTime as well, but I'm having a bad experience with those last hours wagons and I didn't like the case Jacob had.
Kville just voted for xatalos FYI. Not really sure how to read that. He's not here to say anything or defend himself, but he's here to vote for the other person who is suspected.
On September 07 2012 03:36 kushm4sta wrote: Kville just voted for xatalos FYI. Not really sure how to read that. He's not here to say anything or defend himself, but he's here to vote for the other person who is suspected.
quick little bugger arnt you? Yes, voted for xatalos. Because any other case would be null if it was given as there are only but a few hours left, with me and xatalos in the lead. But enough fluff.
Xatalos claimed in his 10 minute made post , that casey and I were trying to mafia corner him becuase we both attacked. That is just a weak defense and he is trying to deflect accusations against him to others. It was a poor accusation.
I attacked him because he tried to attack a player with little information. Which is what scum try to do. They feed off the weak in order to attack.
I believe he is the best choice at this moment becuase of his suspicious attacks against both me and casey. Not only attacking but already trying to make connections.
Disclaimer: phone posting. alignment of text may be off.
On September 07 2012 02:38 Kreb wrote: Also, the vote on Kville is not a policy lynch anymore. As I've pointed out before, he has not even tried to defend himself. Theres absolutely no reason to not do that. Stutters replied when I went on him, Kush/Drazak are replying to each others attacks, Xatalos has replied too (albeit mostly excusing himself for his lack of time). Everyone who has been attacked HAS TRIED (some with better success, some with worse), except Kville.
Yeah, that's a good observation. I still have no idea what to make of the motivations behind that though. Both townies and scums should be motivated to defend themselves.
That's what Xatalos has going for him and why I lean towards a Kville vote atm. Xatalos seems interested in the game and at least it seems like he wants to contribute. And he did contribute quite a good amount at the start of the game, during the weekend. So keeping him for another day there's good chance we'll be seeing more posts over the weekend.
On September 07 2012 02:38 Kreb wrote: Also, the vote on Kville is not a policy lynch anymore. As I've pointed out before, he has not even tried to defend himself. Theres absolutely no reason to not do that. Stutters replied when I went on him, Kush/Drazak are replying to each others attacks, Xatalos has replied too (albeit mostly excusing himself for his lack of time). Everyone who has been attacked HAS TRIED (some with better success, some with worse), except Kville.
Kville is a lurker and he comes in and comments when he feels like it. Honestly I doubt has or will read the thread. Still a null read because that's just how this dbag acts. So I think it is a policy lynch. But having said that I would vote for him just because it doesn't seem like we are able to reach a good consensus. I would rather lynch XATALOS over him, however. Xatalos flipping green tells us more than kville flipping green IMO. Xatalos flipping red tells us WAY more than kville flipping red.
I agree lynching Kville gives us very limited information, we just get rid of player who doesn't contribute. The question is what we get out of lynching Xatalos. One thing seems pretty sure, if Xatalos flips red, it clears Kville. Otherwise, why would Xatalos promote vig killing Kville? However, if Kville flips red, it seems highly unlikely Xatalos is scum. Xatalos has more posts and votes too analyze if he flips red, but that's just because Kville contributes NOTHING. Not a great reason to keep him around.
Could you expand on what information you expect to gain from Xatalos flipping red?
On September 07 2012 03:36 kushm4sta wrote: Kville just voted for xatalos FYI. Not really sure how to read that. He's not here to say anything or defend himself, but he's here to vote for the other person who is suspected.
quick little bugger arnt you? Yes, voted for xatalos. Because any other case would be null if it was given as there are only but a few hours left, with me and xatalos in the lead. But enough fluff.
Xatalos claimed in his 10 minute made post , that casey and I were trying to mafia corner him becuase we both attacked. That is just a weak defense and he is trying to deflect accusations against him to others. It was a poor accusation.
I attacked him because he tried to attack a player with little information. Which is what scum try to do. They feed off the weak in order to attack.
I believe he is the best choice at this moment becuase of his suspicious attacks against both me and casey. Not only attacking but already trying to make connections.
Disclaimer: phone posting. alignment of text may be off.
I'm sorry for my last post and I appreciate your contribution to this thread.
If it is between Kville and Xatalos - I would rather lynch Kville at the moment. Xatalos has atleast got a semi-plausible excuse for why he is inactive and has said he could be more active at the weekend - his play to me seems somewhat consistent with someone who hasn't got enough time to play 100%.
Kville has twice come into the thread at the last minute offering a weak defence and trying to deflect a lynch, as kreb wrote it has been clear for 48h that he might be lynched today and he has done nothing to defend himself - yet he pops up again just like on d1 with an attempt to deflect the lynch away from himself. Of the two I think he is a better bet.
On September 07 2012 03:53 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Could you expand on what information you expect to gain from Xatalos flipping red?
For instance, xatalos has been a huge defender of drazzak (huge being a relative term since his contribution has been quite limited). If xatalos flips I have a huge argument prepared for his connection to drazzak which I have been saving since it is worthless unless he's scum.
On September 07 2012 02:38 Kreb wrote: Also, the vote on Kville is not a policy lynch anymore. As I've pointed out before, he has not even tried to defend himself. Theres absolutely no reason to not do that. Stutters replied when I went on him, Kush/Drazak are replying to each others attacks, Xatalos has replied too (albeit mostly excusing himself for his lack of time). Everyone who has been attacked HAS TRIED (some with better success, some with worse), except Kville.
Yeah, that's a good observation. I still have no idea what to make of the motivations behind that though. Both townies and scums should be motivated to defend themselves.
That's what Xatalos has going for him and why I lean towards a Kville vote atm. Xatalos seems interested in the game and at least it seems like he wants to contribute. And he did contribute quite a good amount at the start of the game, during the weekend. So keeping him for another day there's good chance we'll be seeing more posts over the weekend.
On September 07 2012 02:38 Kreb wrote: Also, the vote on Kville is not a policy lynch anymore. As I've pointed out before, he has not even tried to defend himself. Theres absolutely no reason to not do that. Stutters replied when I went on him, Kush/Drazak are replying to each others attacks, Xatalos has replied too (albeit mostly excusing himself for his lack of time). Everyone who has been attacked HAS TRIED (some with better success, some with worse), except Kville.
Kville is a lurker and he comes in and comments when he feels like it. Honestly I doubt has or will read the thread. Still a null read because that's just how this dbag acts. So I think it is a policy lynch. But having said that I would vote for him just because it doesn't seem like we are able to reach a good consensus. I would rather lynch XATALOS over him, however. Xatalos flipping green tells us more than kville flipping green IMO. Xatalos flipping red tells us WAY more than kville flipping red.
I agree lynching Kville gives us very limited information, we just get rid of player who doesn't contribute. The question is what we get out of lynching Xatalos. One thing seems pretty sure, if Xatalos flips red, it clears Kville. Otherwise, why would Xatalos promote vig killing Kville? However, if Kville flips red, it seems highly unlikely Xatalos is scum. Xatalos has more posts and votes too analyze if he flips red, but that's just because Kville contributes NOTHING. Not a great reason to keep him around.
Could you expand on what information you expect to gain from Xatalos flipping red?
I wouldnt count out bussing attempts at all with Kville flipping red. Actually, should he flip red, it almost seems like it was on purpose to sacrifice him. If I was mafia I doubt I would get into a defending position of Kville with his behaviour, that would seem very risky.
Also, Xatalos flipping green is the worst thing which can happen atm.
On September 07 2012 04:07 KillingTime wrote: If it is between Kville and Xatalos - I would rather lynch Kville at the moment. Xatalos has atleast got a semi-plausible excuse for why he is inactive and has said he could be more active at the weekend - his play to me seems somewhat consistent with someone who hasn't got enough time to play 100%.
Kville has twice come into the thread at the last minute offering a weak defence and trying to deflect a lynch, as kreb wrote it has been clear for 48h that he might be lynched today and he has done nothing to defend himself - yet he pops up again just like on d1 with an attempt to deflect the lynch away from himself. Of the two I think he is a better bet.
who said I was trying to defend? and I wasnt trying to deflect anything during d1,hell I voted my self for lynch d1. your on my radar now, claiming that I was trying to defend and deflect on d1, when obviously I was not.
Now it just looks your forcing a lynch on me with false info.
Thanks for giving me another filter to read. Does any one have any full reads on killing?
It says I may vote for my self. Correct? I am making a statement. If you wanna have a vote from me today then it will be the same as voting for myself. becuase eitjer way we are going to losea town today.
Is pretty much my definition of a weak defence - you were obviously not going to propose another target as you had said that you were not in favour of a D1 lynch - but you knew everyone else disagreed with this and that if you were not lynched then someone else would be.
On September 07 2012 04:09 kushm4sta wrote: I will switch vote to kville if that's the consensus...im just really scared of him flipping green, and I think he probably will.
I will flip green. If your not 100 percent then you shouldn't sheep to a vote. Mafia loves a good sheep.
It says I may vote for my self. Correct? I am making a statement. If you wanna have a vote from me today then it will be the same as voting for myself. becuase eitjer way we are going to losea town today.
Is pretty much my definition of a weak defence - you were obviously not going to propose another target as you had said that you were not in favour of a D1 lynch - but you knew everyone else disagreed with this and that if you were not lynched then someone else would be.
Yeah becuase if you were going to vote for a town randomly than it be the same as voting for me.
On September 07 2012 03:53 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Could you expand on what information you expect to gain from Xatalos flipping red?
For instance, xatalos has been a huge defender of drazzak (huge being a relative term since his contribution has been quite limited). If xatalos flips I have a huge argument prepared for his connection to drazzak which I have been saving since it is worthless unless he's scum.
Yeah, that's a connection, but far from a sure thing. He made a d1 defense of drazak that was very similar to the one Kreb made d2:
On September 04 2012 00:05 Xatalos wrote: I also don't think drazak is Mafia. The typical reaction for pressured Mafia is to get angry, aggressive or desperate, but in my eyes, he has tried to be genuinely helpful - giving away a lot of unnecessary information in case he actually was Mafia. The somewhat frustrated tone in his posts also points more to town than Mafia.
On September 06 2012 09:42 Kreb wrote: The key thing to me is this:
That really had me thinking. Let me explain. That little phrase expresses the feeling of guilt. First of all, there is absolutely no reason for a mafia to feel genuine guilt at this point. He is being attack from one front (thrawn) and then has his defense kind of destroyed from another front (me). What is the feeling you get as mafia then? Desperation? Maybe. Resignation? Maybe. Anger? Maybe. Guilt? Hell no. For this to be a mafia-move, it has to be a planted feeling. A purposedly planted feeling to fool us.
And by this I'm not implying a three-way conspiracy or that it's a great read, just saying it's a resonable read to make.
On September 07 2012 04:48 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Kville, if you're townie, do you really think your way of posting is pro-town? If so, why?
I try to make sense of you, but I have no idea what you're doing.
Take my way of posting however you want. I dont want to post false information on some one to get a lynch and seemlike a townie, thats a scums job.
I'm going to bed in one hour and I'm leaning towards voting on you because you don't even seem to try to contribute. Can you give me any reasons for why it would be beneficial for us to keep you?
Ok, I'm putting my vote on Kville. Xatalos got the thread started by throwing out those questions d1. It helped getting the discussion past the "do we lynch lurkers" and "what about dem lists" part, which is generally pro-town. I have no idea what his motivation was though, since he disappeared quickly and didn't return until EOD (his military service can be a legitimate excuse or a convenient circumstance). At this point it's a vote against Kville more than it's a vote for Xatalos. I'd rather have a player left who seems to interested in playing the game and contribute than someone who doesn't.
On September 07 2012 05:30 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Ok, I'm putting my vote on Kville. Xatalos got the thread started by throwing out those questions d1. It helped getting the discussion past the "do we lynch lurkers" and "what about dem lists" part, which is generally pro-town. I have no idea what his motivation was though, since he disappeared quickly and didn't return until EOD (his military service can be a legitimate excuse or a convenient circumstance). At this point it's a vote against Kville more than it's a vote for Xatalos. I'd rather have a player left who seems to interested in playing the game and contribute than someone who doesn't.
Very well goodluck my few neighbors. Hopefully your vote is for a good cause and made with a positive mind.
On September 07 2012 05:36 kushm4sta wrote: @kville if you are town this is why you dont play like how you are playing... town has to waste a lynch on you now
Uhm I'm not wasting anything if you know this is a waste lynch then don't lynch this is an easy lynch scum is wanting to push through becuase of town like you.
You guys are making this lynch wasteful not me. You even said yourselves that xatalos would prove more than I. So why not make todays lynch useful? Why are you killing off a townie like this for scum?
On September 07 2012 05:36 kushm4sta wrote: @kville if you are town this is why you dont play like how you are playing... town has to waste a lynch on you now
Uhm I'm not wasting anything if you know this is a waste lynch then don't lynch this is an easy lynch scum is wanting to push through becuase of town like you.
You guys are making this lynch wasteful not me. You even said yourselves that xatalos would prove more than I. So why not make todays lynch useful? Why are you killing off a townie like this for scum?
I'm still willing to give you a chance if you actually start helping. You've done nothing except say "hey I'm not scum so you guys are wasting a day. Lynch him instead."
For starters: How do you know he is town? I don't think anyone in this thread has had a townread on him in D2. Do you know something we don't?
On September 07 2012 05:36 kushm4sta wrote: @kville if you are town this is why you dont play like how you are playing... town has to waste a lynch on you now
Uhm I'm not wasting anything if you know this is a waste lynch then don't lynch this is an easy lynch scum is wanting to push through becuase of town like you.
You guys are making this lynch wasteful not me. You even said yourselves that xatalos would prove more than I. So why not make todays lynch useful? Why are you killing off a townie like this for scum?
I'm still willing to give you a chance if you actually start helping. You've done nothing except say "hey I'm not scum so you guys are wasting a day. Lynch him instead."
For starters: How do you know he is town? I don't think anyone in this thread has had a townread on him in D2. Do you know something we don't?
I have my read on xatalos that I contributed. And I agreed that this lynch was a waste I did not start that statement. my was a statement of agreement. also I ment town as in general for everyone here listening.
[QUOTE]On September 07 2012 05:41 Kville wrote: [QUOTE]On September 07 2012 05:36 kushm4sta wrote: @kville
You guys are making this lynch wasteful not me. You even said yourselves that xatalos would prove more than I. So why not make todays lynch useful? Why are you killing off a townie like this for scum?
[/QUOTE]
Thats true. My vote will not change. Though you are my 2nd vote cause of the reasons wich are stated by really everyone in this game
On September 07 2012 06:33 kushm4sta wrote: @kville You play this game really badly!!! Whether you are town or mafia you play really bad... try to not have that attitude next game maybe?
Uhm what? Your reason of lynch makes you a bad player as of now. your voting because you don't like me not because you want to win.
On September 07 2012 06:33 kushm4sta wrote: @kville You play this game really badly!!! Whether you are town or mafia you play really bad... try to not have that attitude next game maybe?
Uhm what? Your reason of lynch makes you a bad player as of now. your voting because you don't like me not because you want to win.
The problem with your metagame is that town has no way of determining if you are mafia. Also you do not help the town win.
On September 07 2012 05:36 kushm4sta wrote: @kville if you are town this is why you dont play like how you are playing... town has to waste a lynch on you now
Uhm I'm not wasting anything if you know this is a waste lynch then don't lynch this is an easy lynch scum is wanting to push through becuase of town like you.
You guys are making this lynch wasteful not me. You even said yourselves that xatalos would prove more than I. So why not make todays lynch useful? Why are you killing off a townie like this for scum?
I'm still willing to give you a chance if you actually start helping. You've done nothing except say "hey I'm not scum so you guys are wasting a day. Lynch him instead."
For starters: How do you know he is town? I don't think anyone in this thread has had a townread on him in D2. Do you know something we don't?
I have my read on xatalos that I contributed. And I agreed that this lynch was a waste I did not start that statement. my was a statement of agreement. also I ment town as in general for everyone here listening.
Again why do you think Kush is town? Additionally your case of Xatalos is a start but having one good post over two days isn't cutting it. At least when Xatalos posts he gives us something to read instead of your nearly identical play to Normal Mini III where you played terrible town yet you've made no effort to improve or help this game. You may flip town but I'll wager that if you flip town we'll be in a much better position than if we flip a town Xatalos today because he should actually contribute enough for us to get reads off of whereas if you live we go into mylo with a townie who posts one liners and shows up when he feels like without actually helping.
On September 07 2012 05:36 kushm4sta wrote: @kville if you are town this is why you dont play like how you are playing... town has to waste a lynch on you now
Uhm I'm not wasting anything if you know this is a waste lynch then don't lynch this is an easy lynch scum is wanting to push through becuase of town like you.
You guys are making this lynch wasteful not me. You even said yourselves that xatalos would prove more than I. So why not make todays lynch useful? Why are you killing off a townie like this for scum?
I'm still willing to give you a chance if you actually start helping. You've done nothing except say "hey I'm not scum so you guys are wasting a day. Lynch him instead."
For starters: How do you know he is town? I don't think anyone in this thread has had a townread on him in D2. Do you know something we don't?
I have my read on xatalos that I contributed. And I agreed that this lynch was a waste I did not start that statement. my was a statement of agreement. also I ment town as in general for everyone here listening.
Again why do you think Kush is town? Additionally your case of Xatalos is a start but having one good post over two days isn't cutting it. At least when Xatalos posts he gives us something to read instead of your nearly identical play to Normal Mini III where you played terrible town yet you've made no effort to improve or help this game. You may flip town but I'll wager that if you flip town we'll be in a much better position than if we flip a town Xatalos today because he should actually contribute enough for us to get reads off of whereas if you live we go into mylo with a townie who posts one liners and shows up when he feels like without actually helping.
Don't tell us why you should live, show us
I told you I ment town as in general. And im showing you guys that drazak is slipping right through. He is just voting without cause. Does anyone else see this?
I'm voting for you, Kville, like I voted for you on D1. We still can't read you, but you're useless, and if you're not helping town you're either mafia or really bad town. The rest of the town have made efforts to help town, which means you are the odd man out.
On September 07 2012 07:05 drazak wrote: I'm voting for you, Kville, like I voted for you on D1. We still can't read you, but you're useless, and if you're not helping town you're either mafia or really bad town. The rest of the town have made efforts to help town, which means you are the odd man out.
Coming from a person whose top read was cubu and now kush. What did happen to your read on kush? Why stop it so suddenly? Perhaps your band wagon failed so now you decided to join an easier one and tried to sneak it by unnoticed untl I caught it and brought it to every ones eyes. Why did you try to hide your vote? How come you did not want to announce it with reason like everyone else?
This is actually the best thing I think you've posted. I wish you would have elaborated on it yourself but hey, its an improvement.
Drazak explain. You aren't here and throw your vote on Kville without even the slightest form of reasoning. You don't even announce it in this thread.
Additionally you said you pressured Kush and he scumslipped yet we're not doing anything. Let's recap what you've done. First you drop a post early in day 2 onto Kush and claim you vote him.
On September 04 2012 03:01 kushm4sta wrote: Why town should all vote for cuba
Worst case scenario:he flips green No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.
Best case scenario: he is mafia If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game. People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn. People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn. Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else. Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?
We need three more votes on cuba.
I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches.
Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush.
##Vote Kushm4sta
Here's the kicker. He never voted for Kushm4sta in the voting thread.
Why are you hiding votes? Why aren't you explaining your dropped read on Kush and why are you sheeping onto Kville with zero explanation?
Er, no, sorry, there were some votes in THIS thread, and I voted for him in THIS thread thinking it would be counted (like other votes were(. I'm not hiding votes, it's right there in the open, I haven't dropped jack shit but there isn't time for you all to respond to my accusations on Kush, it'll have to wait for night/D3.
On September 07 2012 07:14 Stutters695 wrote: This is actually the best thing I think you've posted. I wish you would have elaborated on it yourself but hey, its an improvement.
Drazak explain. You aren't here and throw your vote on Kville without even the slightest form of reasoning. You don't even announce it in this thread.
Additionally you said you pressured Kush and he scumslipped yet we're not doing anything. Let's recap what you've done. First you drop a post early in day 2 onto Kush and claim you vote him.
On September 04 2012 03:01 kushm4sta wrote: Why town should all vote for cuba
Worst case scenario:he flips green No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.
Best case scenario: he is mafia If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game. People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn. People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn. Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else. Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?
We need three more votes on cuba.
I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches.
Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush.
##Vote Kushm4sta
Here's the kicker. He never voted for Kushm4sta in the voting thread.
Why are you hiding votes? Why aren't you explaining your dropped read on Kush and why are you sheeping onto Kville with zero explanation?
That is what caught my eye as well when I look ef at the voting thread. he seems to be trying to sneak everything he is doing, why claim to have a read on some one and end up fake voting on him. Only thing I can think of is that he was waiting for a folower for his band wagon before he was going to cast his. This way he would go completely under the radar
On September 07 2012 07:14 Stutters695 wrote: This is actually the best thing I think you've posted. I wish you would have elaborated on it yourself but hey, its an improvement.
Drazak explain. You aren't here and throw your vote on Kville without even the slightest form of reasoning. You don't even announce it in this thread.
Additionally you said you pressured Kush and he scumslipped yet we're not doing anything. Let's recap what you've done. First you drop a post early in day 2 onto Kush and claim you vote him.
On September 05 2012 11:55 drazak wrote:
On September 04 2012 03:01 kushm4sta wrote: Why town should all vote for cuba
Worst case scenario:he flips green No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.
Best case scenario: he is mafia If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game. People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn. People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn. Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else. Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?
We need three more votes on cuba.
I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches.
Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush.
##Vote Kushm4sta
Here's the kicker. He never voted for Kushm4sta in the voting thread.
Why are you hiding votes? Why aren't you explaining your dropped read on Kush and why are you sheeping onto Kville with zero explanation?
That is what caught my eye as well when I look ef at the voting thread. he seems to be trying to sneak everything he is doing, why claim to have a read on some one and end up fake voting on him. Only thing I can think of is that he was waiting for a folower for his band wagon before he was going to cast his. This way he would go completely under the radar
So you wait until right before you're gonna die to start talking huh? I actually dont think not voting in the voting thread can be counted against him. I've done it too. I think the ##vote was just another way of saying ##fos.
On September 07 2012 07:28 drazak wrote: Er, no, sorry, there were some votes in THIS thread, and I voted for him in THIS thread thinking it would be counted (like other votes were(. I'm not hiding votes, it's right there in the open, I haven't dropped jack shit but there isn't time for you all to respond to my accusations on Kush, it'll have to wait for night/D3.
If you thought votes counted then why didnt you unvote and then cast your vote on me. Now your lying based on this alone, becuase you knew it want counted by not bothering to unvote.
No, I figured there was no need to unvote based on the fact that THE MOD DIDN'T COUNT MY VOTE. There's enough people to lynch you anyway, kville.
So Kush, why'd you scumslip? Why did you feel so threatened by me?
All 4 of those posts had to do with me, either your defense or accusations against me, and I didn't post /at all/ during those 4 posts. Come on now, you'll have to do better than that as a defense.
On September 07 2012 07:14 Stutters695 wrote: This is actually the best thing I think you've posted. I wish you would have elaborated on it yourself but hey, its an improvement.
Drazak explain. You aren't here and throw your vote on Kville without even the slightest form of reasoning. You don't even announce it in this thread.
Additionally you said you pressured Kush and he scumslipped yet we're not doing anything. Let's recap what you've done. First you drop a post early in day 2 onto Kush and claim you vote him.
On September 05 2012 11:55 drazak wrote:
On September 04 2012 03:01 kushm4sta wrote: Why town should all vote for cuba
Worst case scenario:he flips green No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.
Best case scenario: he is mafia If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game. People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn. People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn. Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else. Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?
We need three more votes on cuba.
I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches.
Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush.
##Vote Kushm4sta
Here's the kicker. He never voted for Kushm4sta in the voting thread.
Why are you hiding votes? Why aren't you explaining your dropped read on Kush and why are you sheeping onto Kville with zero explanation?
That is what caught my eye as well when I look ef at the voting thread. he seems to be trying to sneak everything he is doing, why claim to have a read on some one and end up fake voting on him. Only thing I can think of is that he was waiting for a folower for his band wagon before he was going to cast his. This way he would go completely under the radar
So you wait until right before you're gonna die to start talking huh? I actually dont think not voting in the voting thread can be counted against him. I've done it too. I think the ##vote was just another way of saying ##fos.
That isn't all though because he confirmed he wanted it to be a vote. Not only that but he tried to sheep without reason until I exclaimed it.
Kville dude, you're latching on to anything here. If you're town, well, it sucks, but we still have enough town left to win the game if you get lynched. I'm pretty null on you other than you being absolutely freaking useless. Your accusations mean nothing and are poorly based, even Kush who I have been back and forth with thinks your accusations are bullshit.
Im barely reading this thread anymore since Kville came back. Its all just a shitfest last 2 pages. Cant we just put the thread on hold until he gets kicked out and resume after?
On September 07 2012 07:34 drazak wrote: No, I figured there was no need to unvote based on the fact that THE MOD DIDN'T COUNT MY VOTE. There's enough people to lynch you anyway, kville.
So Kush, why'd you scumslip? Why did you feel so threatened by me?
All 4 of those posts had to do with me, either your defense or accusations against me, and I didn't post /at all/ during those 4 posts. Come on now, you'll have to do better than that as a defense.
What was that supposed to mean?"theres enough votes on kville anyways". Why would a town even say such a comment like this? seems more like a threat of what I say doesn't matter now.
If what you say or think matters, why didn't you post about it earlier? At this point people are convinced that you're either mafia or useless town. I'm fairly convinced you're useless town, but I do want to keep pushing my case against kush during night and D3.
On September 07 2012 07:40 Kreb wrote: Im barely reading this thread anymore since Kville came back. Its all just a shitfest last 2 pages. Cant we just put the thread on hold until he gets kicked out and resume after?
Look everyone. Obviously im town. Everyone who read me claimed I was town our null. You saw what I can do (with drazak)he is really suspicious and they way krebs responded about everything that was going all showed how much he cared for town(he doesn't). So how about we make the right decision now?
If you do flip green and xatalos does come back however that puts a really bad light on drazak kreb and killing (as he will be the inactive/active not saying much person) Also if we go with the fact that kreb and killing defended each other and both jumped on stutters. Also he admits to giving to much town creed to drazak who would be the third in this party. Not much hope for any lynch changes but I may as well start researching now. Also this makes me second guess the xatalos lynch vote.
On September 07 2012 08:33 JacobStrangelove wrote: If you do flip green and xatalos does come back however that puts a really bad light on drazak kreb and killing (as he will be the inactive/active not saying much person) Also if we go with the fact that kreb and killing defended each other and both jumped on stutters. Also he admits to giving to much town creed to drazak who would be the third in this party. Not much hope for any lynch changes but I may as well start researching now. Also this makes me second guess the xatalos lynch vote.
So you should, it made me changed as soon as I looked into killing more and when drazak and kreb came out
Obviously, im dead. But keep a good eye out on drazak and kreb. They way kreb camry out with that single past moments ago showed no signs of town in it at all. Only scum would want to shut some one up not a town. Town wants as much information as possible, which is why I'm gone. So why when I speak krebs tries to shut me up? Also drazak trying to hide votes and how he is changing his final vote again with little to no say, shows he is hiding a lot of stuff.
I am hypothetical again don’t mind me... However if kville does flip red then kreb is free in a way. However just from looking at his posts and everyone has the opinion he is town (it seems) so, that said most people have the same opinion about kreb and he has been acting townish with ok analysis all game.
Also the change to kush is really really odd. Looks like not wanting to be connected to the lynch, nobody has votes on kush that is a day 3 case if anything.
On September 07 2012 08:48 JacobStrangelove wrote: I am hypothetical again don’t mind me... However if kville does flip red then kreb is free in a way. However just from looking at his posts and everyone has the opinion he is town (it seems) so, that said most people have the same opinion about kreb and he has been acting townish with ok analysis all game.
Also the change to kush is really really odd. Looks like not wanting to be connected to the lynch, nobody has votes on kush that is a day 3 case if anything.
Well with the way things have been pushed... I am jumping the gun but I think it was something in krebs filter. I will have to recheck and wait for him to go on his weekend to see his posting to be sure however as I have an assigment due today that I have to ace.
Well most people think he is town, myself kush you now (maybe sonic as well). The only problem is if xatalos does flip town we are screwed. and kville doesn't seem to think xatalos is scum or do you?
On September 07 2012 09:32 Stutters695 wrote: A little late in the day but if Kville can keep up his more recent posting I'd be willing to switch to Xatalos over him.
Well the thing is I'm starting to se xatalos as town now and seing drastic more suspicious
Because if kville doesn't think xatalos is town then may as well just vote for k-pop as we get mroe information. however if he does thing he is scum (and I mean actually thing that remember play for the town even if it means your life) then we should lynch xatalos. Also will he keep his recent posting?
The perpetrators of the propane attack in Arlington county had yet to be found, and as any god fearing citizens of the United States of America, they looked next to people who weren't from America.
They accused John Redcorn of being the mastermind behind the attack. He pleaded his case to the group of angry townsfolk, but they wouldn't listen.
"I am a NATIVE American! I am more american than YOU!" he said. They did not listen.
"I'm good friends with Hank! Why would I attack his place of employment!" They did not listen.
"I don't even use charcoal!" They did not listen.
Kville, as John Redcorn, the Miller, was Lynched!
Night 2 lasts 24 hours. Be sure to send in all night actions to both Kitaman and myself!
On September 07 2012 10:06 kushm4sta wrote: Well at least he was a miller...
Well mafia could role claim cop and go herp derp I though he was scum. (although I would assume there is a bread crumb) I have to admit I am very annoyed at kush sheeping but I think he is town. Need to look into drazak killing and kreb. xatalos is almost freed due to the kville flip with kville saying he is town (honest intentions at least and he did have reasons) Kreb maybe not as much as drazak and killing though. With the flip puts killing in a worse light and I am sure stutters agrees as he was his second scum read.
@ jacob yeah I sheeped because I didn't see anyone else that people would agree on. There was no other bandwagon that would work. And yeah I could have voted for someone else but that vote would have done nothing but given me "i told ya so" rights after the fact.
Also how the f does this clear xatalos? Just because kville said xatalos is town does not make it so. I really fail to see your reasoning with that. Kville is not some expert analyst. He's a borderline troll who voted for himself d1. His playstyle is distinctly antitown. I would not want to be in another game that he is in.
On September 07 2012 10:18 kushm4sta wrote: @ jacob yeah I sheeped because I didn't see anyone else that people would agree on. There was no other bandwagon that would work. And yeah I could have voted for someone else but that vote would have done nothing but given me "i told ya so" rights after the fact.
yeah I know this is why I think you are town. I just think you limited the voting group a little to much trying to get a lynch. (before thie voting got going)
On September 07 2012 10:18 kushm4sta wrote: Also how the f does this clear xatalos? Just because kville said xatalos is town does not make it so. I really fail to see your reasoning with that. Kville is not some expert analyst. He's a borderline troll who voted for himself d1. His playstyle is distinctly antitown. I would not want to be in another game that he is in.
No that is true. But I think he is more town than killing is. I guess I jumped on the fact he promised to post more on the weekend and assumed he was town without time to make his reads as solid. Where as killing is un-commital and stuff. In my opinion then we should still look at xatalos but just not as much due to recent events. Well we should watch him anyway. I'll post a big thing on it tonight in anycase before the nk happens.
On September 07 2012 07:34 drazak wrote: No, I figured there was no need to unvote based on the fact that THE MOD DIDN'T COUNT MY VOTE. There's enough people to lynch you anyway, kville.
So Kush, why'd you scumslip? Why did you feel so threatened by me?
All 4 of those posts had to do with me, either your defense or accusations against me, and I didn't post /at all/ during those 4 posts. Come on now, you'll have to do better than that as a defense.
I explained this before and now I will explain again... 2 of those posts were in defense of your attacks. Every post you make attacking me I will make a defense post. You made 2 attack posts so I made 2 defense posts. 1 of the posts was accusing you, not defense. 1 post had nothing to do with you.
and I didn't post /at all/ during those 4 posts.
Ok fact checking time!! Pay attention to the times. Your first accusation:
On September 04 2012 03:01 kushm4sta wrote: Why town should all vote for cuba
Worst case scenario:he flips green No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.
Best case scenario: he is mafia If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game. People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn. People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn. Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else. Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?
We need three more votes on cuba.
I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches.
Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush.
##Vote Kushm4sta
Then I post this which has nothing to do with you:
Thrawn was like town leader and now he is gone. We need to do is come up with a plan for day 2 so we can as a town stay focused. We do NOT want to all be accusing different people. That is what mafia wants. We do not want to be discussing things that do not contribute to the scum hunt. Anyone have an idea for a day 2 town plan to help us?
In the next post I will discuss this recent drazak vote for me.
On September 04 2012 03:01 kushm4sta wrote: Why town should all vote for cuba
Worst case scenario:he flips green No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.
Best case scenario: he is mafia If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game. People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn. People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn. Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else. Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?
We need three more votes on cuba.
I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches.
Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush.
##Vote Kushm4sta
I pushed the cubu vote because 1)he was a bad poster/lurker and it worked as a policy lynch if nothing else 2)how he turned revealed a lot about thrawn, who i assumed medic or jb would save because he was the obvious choice in my mind I thought it was very fishy that thrawn tried to redirect twice, and so I got very excited with the prospect of identifying two mafia in the first day. Also at the time I thought, as did thrawn, that kville was going to be replaced. So that's why I called him the worst townie. Now it's clear that honor belongs to kville.
Also jacob I don't get how this is a good argument? It's reasoning is only one sentence:
Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie.
I think he means that then thrawn would be mafia, but right now that sentence, which is his ONLY argumentation, makes no sense.
Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town?
I didn't think anyone else seemed more scumlike than he did. Although I did know that was a big chance of him not being scum. See, drazzy darling, when there are a ton of lurkers/terrible townies in the game like yourself, it makes it pretty fucking hard to win as town.
And my last defense of myself is to invoke the holy name of the late thrawn, who, on the night of his untimely death, proclaimed me as his biggest town read. Read his defense of me because I'm sure it's better than anything I could do. REST IN PEACE THRAWN TT
Not to OMGUS, but this actually makes drazak seem quite suspicious to me. Mostly because I am the most active poster now that thrawn is gone. Maybe I'm biased about the matter but what do other people think? I will look through his filter more tomorrow.
Then YOU post again, attacking me more. This is the post you seem to be forgetting about. It is in between those 4 posts you mention.
So, you weren't actually scum hunting, why weren't you scum hunting? Couldn't figure out who to lynch and actually make a good case for because you're mafia? Just because thrawn called you town doesn't make you town.
For the record, town doesn't need a leader, a leader can hurt a town more than help, if the leader is mafia, we're all fucked. Saying that you're the most active doesn't actually make you town. We agreed that the only deciding factor is that being too lurker-ish is scummy. Active does not equate to town.
Accusing me because I'm accusing you is a very bad idea, that's like, the #1 worse scum defense. So tell me, with logical terms, good reasons, and actual evidence, who your best two scum reads are?
Then I post a defense of your second attack. I do this only because stutters wants me to. Notice it is AFTER your second attacking post.
So, you weren't actually scum hunting, why weren't you scum hunting? Couldn't figure out who to lynch and actually make a good case for because you're mafia? Just because thrawn called you town doesn't make you town.
For the record, town doesn't need a leader, a leader can hurt a town more than help, if the leader is mafia, we're all fucked. Saying that you're the most active doesn't actually make you town. We agreed that the only deciding factor is that being too lurker-ish is scummy. Active does not equate to town.
Accusing me because I'm accusing you is a very bad idea, that's like, the #1 worse scum defense. So tell me, with logical terms, good reasons, and actual evidence, who your best two scum reads are?
I was scumhunting, I just didn't have a great idea of who was scum day 1, as no one did. I thought cubu looked more like mafia than anyone else. Scumhunting doesn't' mean figuring out 100% who is mafia, that is impossible.
Thrawn calling me town doesn't make me town--this is true. But thrawn is a confirmed innocent so at least we know that all his motivations were pro town and his beliefs genuine.
Drazak I agree the town doesn't need a leader, but I think we do need to be focused. And what I mean by that is we should not all be analyzing different people. That is what mafia wants because it makes it easy for mafia to hide amidst that confusion and not to take a stance on people he doesn't want to take a stance on.
You ask me who my best scum reads are atm. I will comply. As of now it's xatalos, for reasons already posted. I still want to analyze your filter more, drazak, but I will say that accusing me out of the blue, since for many I am a strong town read, was not really a safe move, and that gives you town points...minor town points though, because you may have thought that cubu flipping green justified your suspicion. Other people I am suspicious of is stutters, since he has been absent for quite a while now.. I really want to see what he is going to post today before I make a judgement on him.
I will post more substantially later.
PS I really don't want to lynch kville in light of his most recent post and just thinking about it more. He deserves the lynch maybe because his play was just really bad and anti town but I don't want to waste it on him. Also I think it is mostly a waste of time to discuss him, since there is not much to talk about or analyze in his posts
Even you must admit that your statement is false. I don't think you lied on purpose though, because it can be proven wrong so easily.
Yeah, I think I linked the wrong post atleast once, I got distracted while I was writing that post. One of my friends that I hadn't seen in awhile and I had dinner and stuff. My bad, you did have 4 posts regarding my accusations, maybe just not the ones I linked :S
On September 07 2012 07:34 drazak wrote: So Kush, why'd you scumslip?
Because I'm not scum maybe.
Now I have a question for you drazak. It's serious so please answer. Not omgusing, I really want you to answer this. Are you really bad at this game or are you mafia?
... well that is annoying. I agree that the reason that we ended up with a Xatalos v Kville situation was because we were all accusing each other. I said at the start of the day I really hoped that we could come up with a better lynch target.. but we did not. Scum have succeeded in thoroughly bamboozling me I have to say. I will look into the thread this evening and I'll be happy to answer questions from those who have suspicions of me.
Fuck, this is really bad. I’ve been so frustrated with Kville and his anti-town playstyle. I still don’t know if he legitimately thought he was playing well or if he was trolling. Either way it sucks he was in the game.
For now I’ll just post a couple of thoughts I had last night but didn’t feel like posting because I think it just would’ve derailed the lynching discussion:
There are different kinds of town reads. I would say my town read on Kush is based on deductive reasoning. My reasoning is easy to follow and can be disputed for example by showing that claimed facts are wrong or attacking its assumptions. This game is based around critical thinking and if town reads leads to some players being able to exploit leadership roles, the problem isn’t the town read, but that the other players are sheeps.
My town read on Kreb is a “feel” read. If someone disagrees by saying “I don’t feel the same way”, we’re in a stalemate. Obviously that makes it a weak town read and I wouldn’t expect others to necessarily agree with it (I’ll go back and check Kreb’s filter and hopefully make it a logical argument later, but right now that’s wasted time because he’s not up for lynching anyway).
I feel like this is somewhat relevant now that Kush is taking some heat. I don’t think anyone has commented on the arguments I’ve made for my Kush = townie read. The facts behind are definitely true, do anyone disagree on the assumptions? For me to reconsider my position on Kush I’d like a counter-argument.
On September 05 2012 18:49 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I don't find the case against kush to be strong. I will repeat my earlier arguments:
Starting a wagon d1: Usually gives you too much attention (this game is a case in point) Pursuing that townie Cubu: I think at a 4-2 score where no other wagons had any momentum, he still aggressively pursued Cubu. Going after thrawn: Makes no sense to attack the most trusted townie (those were the accusations right? I still need to go back and reread this part)
All his actions will give him a ton of attention, that’s not very scummy at all.
I’ve been reading through the arguments against Kush but didn’t focus too much on it yesterday because I think it makes more sense to discuss it now. My reaction to reading through the exchange between Kush and drazark was that Kush went into a pretty heavy OMGUS-mode (wrt to those 4 posts he made in response). Is this what you find to be scummy, drazark? Or is there more to it that I have missed? Could you please condense your argument to what you believe to be the most valid points?
Sorry to say Kush is known for his OMGUS-mode I will post a big thing later with my reads and stuff but I don't think this is any reason to suspect him. I Think Kush is town as probably evident if my recent posts.
drazaks main argument against me is just wrong. his facts are false. his case is sloppy. unless someone else presents a better case, I think we should not focus on if drazs accusations are correct, but if they make h mafia. on the one hand they are reckless, which is a trait of town. On the other hand they are senseless, devoid of content, and appear to serve no other purpose than to sow confusion and start a flame war. Look at when it starts, right as I accuse xatalos. sorry for formatting this was written on my phone.
On September 07 2012 19:11 kushm4sta wrote: drazaks main argument against me is just wrong. his facts are false. his case is sloppy. unless someone else presents a better case, I think we should not focus on if drazs accusations are correct, but if they make h mafia. on the one hand they are reckless, which is a trait of town. On the other hand they are senseless, devoid of content, and appear to serve no other purpose than to sow confusion and start a flame war. Look at when it starts, right as I accuse xatalos. sorry for formatting this was written on my phone.
This wouldn't have happened if you just stayed calm. If you're suspicious of drazak then look through his filter. Make a coherent argument that doesn't come off as OMGUS-ing. If you think he's trying to sow confusion and start flame wars, you're helping his cause.
I'm going to look through Stutters posts because I basically gave him a free pass yesterday. I also postponed answering to Jacob because he didn't come off as a good d2 lynching candidate. And of course I expect Xatalos to answer the questions he left hanging.
How can people have townreads on imcasey? Actually, how can people have any reads on him? He isnt doing more than his predecessor WeeTee. One weak case on Xatalos and barely posting.
He is an absolute nullread. Which, considering we'll soon be down to 8 players, more and more looks mafia-ish.
On September 07 2012 20:36 Kreb wrote: How can people have townreads on imcasey? Actually, how can people have any reads on him? He isnt doing more than his predecessor WeeTee. One weak case on Xatalos and barely posting.
He is an absolute nullread. Which, considering we'll soon be down to 8 players, more and more looks mafia-ish.
Yeah cause our thing of lynching lurkers has worked out so well for us. Or wait no it hasn't... we should lynch someone we can actually find a scum slip on not someone who is convenient.
On September 07 2012 20:36 Kreb wrote: How can people have townreads on imcasey? Actually, how can people have any reads on him? He isnt doing more than his predecessor WeeTee. One weak case on Xatalos and barely posting.
He is an absolute nullread. Which, considering we'll soon be down to 8 players, more and more looks mafia-ish.
Yeah cause our thing of lynching lurkers has worked out so well for us. Or wait no it hasn't... we should lynch someone we can actually find a scum slip on not someone who is convenient.
That didnt answer the question. How did you have a townread on him?
And Kville wasnt a lurker/policy lynch, as has been explained before. At the end he was also anything but lurkerish.
Im not saying Im advocating an imcasey lynch, but initially nullreads are 3 in 12 being mafia. Down to 8 players, nullreads and still no hit, nullreads are 3 in (8 - <your amount of townread>). That not bad odds.
Stutters remain my main suspect for now though. He is still on a grand total read-count of 1 throughout the whole thread and has given lackluster explanations to why he ignored replying to cases on him.
On September 07 2012 20:56 JacobStrangelove wrote: Also if you check back in my filter I give my reasons for town read on imcasey/WeeTee
The only thing I found was this:
Ok, So due to motivation stutters is likely to be scum. But I would like some answers out of Killing as to what he is thinking right now. Your only real strong read as the game went on was WeeTee but considering he didn't have time and had to leave the thread it is likely he is town without time. (now ImCasey)
Which isnt a imcasey read but a WeeTee read (carrying over to imcasey). And its a bit strange to assume someone to be town because they had to leave the thread.
On September 07 2012 20:36 Kreb wrote: How can people have townreads on imcasey? Actually, how can people have any reads on him? He isnt doing more than his predecessor WeeTee. One weak case on Xatalos and barely posting.
He is an absolute nullread. Which, considering we'll soon be down to 8 players, more and more looks mafia-ish.
As someone mention in this thread earlier, its not always the amount of thread that makes you a good/bad town, but the quality. Im not saying my post is full of quality, but atleast there is an attempt from me if you look trough them. If you want me to be more active, no problem, but expect threads like Kville and Jacobs then. Sorry Jacob, i still think your town but you do analyze alot and write many non sense posts, your not alone though.. Also keep in mind im in a completly diffrent time zone from you, so when i get home from school, thats just now : 15:35. I start reading trough post and comment on what i think is imporatant, mostly ( This post diddent really deserve an answear Kreb ) i will not waste time on posts like this unless they conteins a bit more effort..
Im starting to read trough the post from tonight now, with good time to next lynch i will check trough who voted on Kville, who can have pushed that wagon, read some filters etc. I will be on my computer for the next hours, updating this thread now and then and discuss any matters there is.
This is a large post but it has been cut into sections of Defense of Imcasey, defense on stutters, case on killing, case on drazak. I will save Kreb for another time as it would be too long otherwise. I just hope the formating works.
Ok this is the start of a very long post as of such I will try to be as clear and concise as possible.
Kreb you missed a large section of my argument for why WeeTee Imcasey is town. First off I will show you the backstory. If you look at WeeTees first posts it includes this.
On September 02 2012 21:19 WeeTee wrote: Good to see you here @jacob should be a good game this time!
It is evident that he and I know each other. Why else would he single me out? In other words I know how he plays. I know his meta better than anybody in this thread. Also watching his last mafia game he has used the exact same play style. Now you mention that it isn’t an imcasey read it’s a WeeTee read. Yes but they are the same person. It’s as if you put someone with multiple personalities in the thread but they are the same person. If I am 99% sure WeeTee is town I can assume that translates over to imcasey. Also there are plenty of reasons for the less posting style. With him having to leave this means he was unlikely to be able to form cases day one. Also with the replacement going into his first game a day in so much to read and this would also contribute to the lack of posting. I will post the part you missed about my argument for WeeTee.
On September 05 2012 19:22 JacobStrangelove wrote: I probably should point out that part of the reason I had a town read for WeeTee is that I happen to know his style (see his first post where he mentions it’s good to see me) and it reeks of town. With this (although he may have fooled me) I thought Xatatos read of WeeTee when Stutters was available strange. Also with killing he is sceptical of “meta” reads
On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote: My point was that I did not think your town reads added much to the thread, partly because I am very sceptical of "meta" reads at this point given that we all have 3 or less games.
Sure but its more information, that can only be helpful. If WeeTee fits his meta (he does) and he fits the meta I know he is unlikely to be scum. This and the fact that he had to leave due to time problems(although that may have been after my time line is a little messed up) then surely stutters were a better lynch.
While the argument in context might be a little out of date the facts about WeeTee remain the same.
Also there is this from kville (he was talking to xatalos at the time), while kville was a little trolish you can’t tell me this doesn’t make sense.
On September 05 2012 22:55 Kville wrote: Well WeeTee Did get replaced which could be the reason why he was playing so "safe" and conservative. He badnwagoned to avoid a modkill in order to fulfill the replacement, so it seems. The fact that there is little to no evidence other than "he was playing safe" doesn't really seem like a sure vote to go for, unless you are trying for another mislynch. You vote and leave the first day and you do it again the second time. It seems like your strategy seems to be "POP" then lurk. which seems a bit suspicious.
And finally we have nothing proven scum against him. I am sure if we examine the filters of people we can come up with a far better target. Non of this let’s backup vote imcasey stuff, that just makes it more likely the scum will spread confusion and force us to vote for him.
Now I would also like to point out this.
On September 07 2012 15:09 KillingTime wrote: ... well that is annoying. I agree that the reason that we ended up with a Xatalos v Kville situation was because we were all accusing each other. I said at the start of the day I really hoped that we could come up with a better lynch target.. but we did not. Scum have succeeded in thoroughly bamboozling me I have to say. I will look into the thread this evening and I'll be happy to answer questions from those who have suspicions of me.
After the flip Kush and I immediately analyse it talk about it start making reads etc... Kililng comes in and makes a “annoyed post” and also says he is bamboozled and says he is happy to answer questions about himself. He makes no mention of scum hunting. Why? Because he doesn’t need to hunt scum, he is scum. This is another fluff post saying he is confused. Surely he would have an opinion on what happened. He says so much however his major posts are lists and he is very non committal. Surely someone else sees this! While my arguments up until this points haven’t been the clearest if you think I am town why do you think I hardly left Killings side. Intuition has to could for something and it has.
He was not able to answer why he was so non committal his only reply was
On September 07 2012 00:01 KillingTime wrote: First, if you feel I have been non-committal or weak in my play then I can only apologise and say this is my first game and I am definitely learning as I go. That is not an excuse, but it is the most likely explanation for "weak" town play on my part. I think Kreb, Drazak & Sonic are town, everyone else I am currently suspicious of.
This is not really a reply, for me it is an excuse that anybody could use. Also his case on stutters is due to kush/xatalos pushing the conversation away from him. His one major non listed case was based on association.
On September 06 2012 17:02 KillingTime wrote: Ok, having re-read through a bunch of filters today I think we should lynch Stutters695 - Yes his posting/lurking has been/is reason enough to lynch him. But, reading back through filters there has been way to much redirection of discussion away from him as a good lynch - particularly from kush. ... Now, this does not mean that both Kush & Xatalos are mafia if stutters flips - but that is WAY too much subtle redirecting of a target for me. Stutters is as scummy as anyone at this point, if he flips we will have some strong targets for d3. If we lynch him and he is not mafia, town is in a bad spot - but we are in a bad spot regardless of who we lynch if they flip and are not mafia (kreb has convinced me of this with his case against kville that there is no point not going for lurkers.).
I would also like to point out that kush seems to be following his meta as well. Admittedly meta talk in a newbie game is a little hard but you would think rolling scum would mess with how they would act. Also if you notice stutters filter and replies I will tell you why he is likely town.
He did have a slow start day one. Considering drazak kville weetee cubu all had slow day one starts two who are confirmed town and one who I pointed out seems confirmed town to me this is no reason for a scum read. What you should look at is the quality and logical reasoning in his filter. You should read the whole post but in particular.
On September 06 2012 17:02 KillingTime wrote: I think kville is not a terrible lynch. But Stutters is better and more scummy, and throws alot of suspicions on others who seem to have been redirecting a/the serious Stutters wagon so far...
Please explain what part of my play has been more scummy than someone who has been trolling the thread and not contributed anything? ##FoS Killing Time I need to go through his filter but this isn't the first time he hasn't taken a stance on issues while posting "reads" that don't actually commit longterm.
While kville did show up as town in the lynch he was an easy lynch, scum would want to lynch the slightly harder targets so they have a free win by the time they get to end game. For example if we lynched stutters it would be easy to convince town to lynch kville. If anything if we spent another day with him in the game we would have been frustrated into lynching him.
Also he returns fire on killing time and is way more active engaged asking questions giving responces. He questions kush and drazak on the issues and responds on a manner I can only call logical. His filter isn’t filled with fluff so I suggest you read it for yourself as everything he says comes across in a pro town questioning way.
Now I am going to transition to drazak. His vote on kush only caused confusion and was purely a slug fest with no real reasoning behind it. After being “caught out” as such by kville and stutters plus the kush argument he backs out and doesn’t comment. He hardly provides good reasons for his mistakes, Also he has a bad habit of calling kville useless. However enough of that I will provide posts and reasons.
On September 06 2012 18:03 drazak wrote: My accusation wasn't out of nowhere, I made a read based on what happened, I reasoned, carefully. I saw that Kush wasn't scumhunting day 1. If you're not scumhunting, you're not furthering town, if you're not furthering town... you're mafia. I then saw kush slipped by overreacting to me. Feel free to poke holes in my actual reasoning instead of calling me scum for making a reasoned accusation.
Kush wasn’t scum hunting day one? I’m a freaking unicycling unicorn. First his Kush isn’t scum hunting read is based on this.
On September 04 2012 03:01 kushm4sta wrote: Why town should all vote for cuba
Worst case scenario:he flips green No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.
Best case scenario: he is mafia If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game. People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn. People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn. Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else. Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?
We need three more votes on cuba.
I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches.
Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush. ##Vote Kushm4sta
But then his day one post was this
On September 03 2012 21:24 drazak wrote: My best read is cubu. He's tried to throw suspiscion, he stopped posting when he had nobody to lay thin accusations on. Cubu has posted only with low content, low value posts, he hasn't had any real reads other than discussing statistics and how afk I was. I think Cubu isn't a great D1 lynch though, which is why he doesn't currently have my vote, if he continues to have such low content posts tomorrow, he will certainly have my vote. Cubu is someone we can try to analyze tomorrow and figure out if he really is mafia, we can't analyze kville, and if we wait to lynch kville it's not going to get better, we don't even have a baseline for him.
To that point, I'm someone you can analyze D2, you have several posts by me, with fairly decent content. Even if kville isn't mafia, he isn't helping anyone. In addition, I felt that going for cubu would just be bandwagoning at this point, which as town doesn't help me at all, espescially considering I do have my own unique thoughts, which I have shared with everyone.
The whole “even if kville isn’t mafia he isn’t helping anyone” isn’t this the same thing? They are both talking about lynching the worst townie however drazak covers himself better (something a scum would do over a town) refering to the bandwagon and trying to convince people he is town by pointing out he is town not just assuming everyone knows he is town. “which as town doesn't help me at all” This would be obvious if he was town.
Anyway these are my thoughts on Drazak. Because of the lengh of this post I will save Krebs analises for my next post probably (if I find anything) My intuitive thoughts are “he has seemed town but he is saying some strange stuff that I need to look into.”
On September 07 2012 21:20 Kreb wrote: Same to kush: I'd like to see an explanation of your townread on imcasey.
Ask and you shall receive: He is a null read to me bordering on town. 1Town get bored, mafia do not. I think it is less likely for mafia to quit the game like WeeTee did. 2WeeTee's posts fit his meta, which doesn't prove him town, but does clear his bad posting style of suspicion. 3Iamcasey really does seem like inexperienced town trying his best. Are there people who seem more town than him? yes Are there who seem more scum than him? Definitely yes.
Well I have looked at krebs filter and honeslty I have nothing. He seems so completely town to me, the only thing that is odd is his frustrations regarding the kville thing
On September 07 2012 07:40 Kreb wrote: Im barely reading this thread anymore since Kville came back. Its all just a shitfest last 2 pages. Cant we just put the thread on hold until he gets kicked out and resume after?
(however this would be unlikely to be said my mafia now that I think about it)
and the fact he missed my case on imcasey. This guy seems as town as you get. I guess I should recheck sonic and xatalos and even kush while I am at it (although considering my scum reads I find this unlikely). But I strongly Suggest from my post above either a kililng or drazak lynch. It's 1 am though and I need to sleep for the morning so I must depart now. Although if I can't sleep I might be back.
Just incase I die in the night before I post sonic seems more town than xatalos but he seems to also have it out for me.
Addendum to defense of weetee/iamcasey: If WeeTee really didn't have that much time and he was mafia, he could have easily posted very little and hid amongst our game's many lurkers.
On September 07 2012 23:01 JacobStrangelove wrote: + Show Spoiler +
Now I would also like to point out this.
On September 07 2012 15:09 KillingTime wrote: ... well that is annoying. I agree that the reason that we ended up with a Xatalos v Kville situation was because we were all accusing each other. I said at the start of the day I really hoped that we could come up with a better lynch target.. but we did not. Scum have succeeded in thoroughly bamboozling me I have to say. I will look into the thread this evening and I'll be happy to answer questions from those who have suspicions of me.
After the flip Kush and I immediately analyse it talk about it start making reads etc... Kililng comes in and makes a “annoyed post” and also says he is bamboozled and says he is happy to answer questions about himself. He makes no mention of scum hunting. Why? Because he doesn’t need to hunt scum, he is scum. This is another fluff post saying he is confused. Surely he would have an opinion on what happened. He says so much however his major posts are lists and he is very non committal. Surely someone else sees this! While my arguments up until this points haven’t been the clearest if you think I am town why do you think I hardly left Killings side. Intuition has to could for something and it has.
He was not able to answer why he was so non committal his only reply was
On September 07 2012 00:01 KillingTime wrote: First, if you feel I have been non-committal or weak in my play then I can only apologise and say this is my first game and I am definitely learning as I go. That is not an excuse, but it is the most likely explanation for "weak" town play on my part. I think Kreb, Drazak & Sonic are town, everyone else I am currently suspicious of.
This is not really a reply, for me it is an excuse that anybody could use. Also his case on stutters is due to kush/xatalos pushing the conversation away from him. His one major non listed case was based on association.
On September 06 2012 17:02 KillingTime wrote: Ok, having re-read through a bunch of filters today I think we should lynch Stutters695 - Yes his posting/lurking has been/is reason enough to lynch him. But, reading back through filters there has been way to much redirection of discussion away from him as a good lynch - particularly from kush. ... Now, this does not mean that both Kush & Xatalos are mafia if stutters flips - but that is WAY too much subtle redirecting of a target for me. Stutters is as scummy as anyone at this point, if he flips we will have some strong targets for d3. If we lynch him and he is not mafia, town is in a bad spot - but we are in a bad spot regardless of who we lynch if they flip and are not mafia (kreb has convinced me of this with his case against kville that there is no point not going for lurkers.).
I would also like to point out that kush seems to be following his meta as well. Admittedly meta talk in a newbie game is a little hard but you would think rolling scum would mess with how they would act. Also if you notice stutters filter and replies I will tell you why he is likely town.
He did have a slow start day one. Considering drazak kville weetee cubu all had slow day one starts two who are confirmed town and one who I pointed out seems confirmed town to me this is no reason for a scum read. What you should look at is the quality and logical reasoning in his filter. You should read the whole post but in particular.
On September 06 2012 17:02 KillingTime wrote: I think kville is not a terrible lynch. But Stutters is better and more scummy, and throws alot of suspicions on others who seem to have been redirecting a/the serious Stutters wagon so far...
Please explain what part of my play has been more scummy than someone who has been trolling the thread and not contributed anything? ##FoS Killing Time I need to go through his filter but this isn't the first time he hasn't taken a stance on issues while posting "reads" that don't actually commit longterm.
While kville did show up as town in the lynch he was an easy lynch, scum would want to lynch the slightly harder targets so they have a free win by the time they get to end game. For example if we lynched stutters it would be easy to convince town to lynch kville. If anything if we spent another day with him in the game we would have been frustrated into lynching him.
Also he returns fire on killing time and is way more active engaged asking questions giving responces. He questions kush and drazak on the issues and responds on a manner I can only call logical. His filter isn’t filled with fluff so I suggest you read it for yourself as everything he says comes across in a pro town questioning way.
Now I am going to transition to drazak. His vote on kush only caused confusion and was purely a slug fest with no real reasoning behind it. After being “caught out” as such by kville and stutters plus the kush argument he backs out and doesn’t comment. He hardly provides good reasons for his mistakes, Also he has a bad habit of calling kville useless. However enough of that I will provide posts and reasons.
On September 06 2012 18:03 drazak wrote: My accusation wasn't out of nowhere, I made a read based on what happened, I reasoned, carefully. I saw that Kush wasn't scumhunting day 1. If you're not scumhunting, you're not furthering town, if you're not furthering town... you're mafia. I then saw kush slipped by overreacting to me. Feel free to poke holes in my actual reasoning instead of calling me scum for making a reasoned accusation.
Kush wasn’t scum hunting day one? I’m a freaking unicycling unicorn. First his Kush isn’t scum hunting read is based on this.
On September 04 2012 03:01 kushm4sta wrote: Why town should all vote for cuba
Worst case scenario:he flips green No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.
Best case scenario: he is mafia If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game. People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn. People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn. Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else. Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?
We need three more votes on cuba.
I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches.
Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush. ##Vote Kushm4sta
But then his day one post was this
On September 03 2012 21:24 drazak wrote: My best read is cubu. He's tried to throw suspiscion, he stopped posting when he had nobody to lay thin accusations on. Cubu has posted only with low content, low value posts, he hasn't had any real reads other than discussing statistics and how afk I was. I think Cubu isn't a great D1 lynch though, which is why he doesn't currently have my vote, if he continues to have such low content posts tomorrow, he will certainly have my vote. Cubu is someone we can try to analyze tomorrow and figure out if he really is mafia, we can't analyze kville, and if we wait to lynch kville it's not going to get better, we don't even have a baseline for him.
To that point, I'm someone you can analyze D2, you have several posts by me, with fairly decent content. Even if kville isn't mafia, he isn't helping anyone. In addition, I felt that going for cubu would just be bandwagoning at this point, which as town doesn't help me at all, espescially considering I do have my own unique thoughts, which I have shared with everyone.
The whole “even if kville isn’t mafia he isn’t helping anyone” isn’t this the same thing? They are both talking about lynching the worst townie however drazak covers himself better (something a scum would do over a town) refering to the bandwagon and trying to convince people he is town by pointing out he is town not just assuming everyone knows he is town. “which as town doesn't help me at all” This would be obvious if he was town.
Anyway these are my thoughts on Drazak. Because of the lengh of this post I will save Krebs analises for my next post probably (if I find anything) My intuitive thoughts are “he has seemed town but he is saying some strange stuff that I need to look into.”
Ok this is the section of jacob's recent post that accusing killing and drazak. Even though jacob's posts have been pretty WTF at times I suggest everyone read close. I agree with his argument against killing a lot and I strongly suspect killingtime right now.
This quote from killing especially stuck out to me when I first read it, and the more I think about it, the more scumlike it seems:
Scum have succeeded in thoroughly bamboozling me I have to say.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.
Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
(As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
Basically your rebuttal is that my “entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution” and then you shoot back with accusations of your own. I explain why you’re wrong…
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Alright, a couple of thoughts.
On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote: Im not lurking! I just woke up!
First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here?
This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.
The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about:
1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making.
You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy?
As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: You also say
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all.
The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2.
On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Alright, a couple of thoughts.
On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote: Im not lurking! I just woke up!
First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here?
This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.
The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about:
1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making.
You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy?
As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: You also say
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all.
The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2.
Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before.
Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good.
The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all.
The question you answer here isn’t the one I asked. I wanted to know the intent of your original posts, the posts that made you a suspect in the first place. Which I explain in my next post…
On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Alright, a couple of thoughts.
On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote: Im not lurking! I just woke up!
First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here?
This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.
The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about:
1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making.
You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy?
As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: You also say
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all.
The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2.
Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before.
Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good.
The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all.
EOD = End of day
Honestly I don't find this response very satisfying. It seems like we have quite different experiences from the game though and we might both be biased. Imo d1 the town usually focus way too much on active players while scum try to fly under the radar. That's why I like putting pressure on lurkers, you were just one of them and the one I happened to find the most suspect.
You're saying we're focus too little on motives? The motive of flying under the radar is to just sit back while the town starts flinging poo on eachother. I'm still not sure what your motive of making generic posts was. Maybe someone who followed XXIV can chime in? Thrawn, it seems like you were playing that game?
So what was the motivation behind your generic posts d1? I'm sure a smart player like you have motives. Did you really think they were pro-town?
You came off as really defensive despite it being clear your posts were useless and that you knew the game well enough to understand that they were useless. You were basically saying “hey guys, focus on motives, my motives are clean”, when it’s clear that the motives of generic posts and then just showing up for EOD can easily be motives of scum wanting to fly under the radar. Why so defensive of these useless posts?
D2 you play differently. You contribute with some meta on Kville and calling out KillingTime. This is of course appreciated and gives a reason to let you stay in the game. After the heat you had taken on d1 this was pretty much required and of course what any smart player would do (townie or scum).
My question regarding d2 is one Kreb brought up earlier: the KillingTime accusations. To me they came off as a distraction that hurt the more productive discussions. Did you see any chances of actually lynching KillingTime? If not, why wouldn't you just let those accusations wait?
I have to leave soon, iv read the last post and been checking some filters, i will come back later with a long post. For now i have to say Jacob and Kreb is very town for me. I like your last post Jacob, as i said before you are the most townish guy imo, good post with much content, though some posts are to much analyze. I do agree in some of your arguments about kush, iv suspected him earlier, but i need to read more filter on him before i say more. What im hoping to get an answear on when im back is :
[b]Xatalos/b] Why do you consider your case vs me so strong , i think its a pretty bad case.And your outdated case vs Sonic, you never explained ? Im intrested in what you have to say about this. It seems for me like your just making up excuses to stay alive.
Just what productive discussions are you referring to? If you were talking about the kush/drazak that could be the same thing. If you were talking about kville... well it is obvious what happened. The discussion was hardly there anyway. Honestly the productive discussions weren't all that productive and it did show a side of killing that is now very suspicious. Also stutters had not so useful posts day one but he has made useful posts day two. Unlike killing time who has avoided most things both days. Do you not notice or comment on the state of killings integrity right now?
However this is speculation. I will now read through you filter.
On September 08 2012 00:43 JacobStrangelove wrote: Well I have looked at krebs filter and honeslty I have nothing. He seems so completely town to me, the only thing that is odd is his frustrations regarding the kville thing
No shit. His play was so terrible on so many levels. When we needed him to post he didnt, and when he was going out he went on an accusation spree and created a massive shitfest for a few hours. Kvilles play was complete bullshit and should not have been allowed. This is pretty much the same as if we started at a 7-3 player situation, except we've had 72 extra hours of discussion.
On September 08 2012 03:33 JacobStrangelove wrote: Guess who can't sleep.
@sonic
Just what productive discussions are you referring to? If you were talking about the kush/drazak that could be the same thing. If you were talking about kville... well it is obvious what happened. The discussion was hardly there anyway. Honestly the productive discussions weren't all that productive and it did show a side of killing that is now very suspicious. Also stutters had not so useful posts day one but he has made useful posts day two. Unlike killing time who has avoided most things both days. Do you not notice or comment on the state of killings integrity right now?
However this is speculation. I will now read through you filter.
I would agree on your survival chances kreb :/
Yeah, I think Kush/drazak was a distraction, which is part of why I think we didn't need yet another case thrown out at that point. I was going through Stutters' filter and I didn't want to mix in random thoughts about others in this post. Just because I'm asking Stutters questions doesn't necessarily mean I think he's the #1 suspect or a good lynch for tomorrow. This is just a good way of forcing information from someone we gave a pass on d2. There's 48h of d3 before the lynch choice and I don't think we should even be talking about lynching subjects at this point.
I haven't had time to read up on all the developments of the Killing case, but I certainly will.
On September 08 2012 03:30 Kreb wrote: Oooo. My if-I-die-post will be good today, I might have figured out something.... hmmm. Just gimme some time to write a proper post.
Consider I think my survival chances are fairly limited, I'll make sure to help with what I can.
If you can, make sure to post it just a few minutes before deadline. I'm not around for EON and I think it's pretty counterproductive to post an if-I-die-post which scum have the time to read.
Decided to take a different approach to this. Ladies and Gentlemen, I present: Logic. + Show Spoiler +
Hey, I just googled logic and this is what I got, seems relevant enough! :p
Players remaining 1) KillingTime 2) drazak 3) kushm4sta 4) WeeTee, replaced by imcasey 6) Xatalos 9) Kreb 10) Stutters695 11) JacobStrangelove 12) Sonic Death Monkey
Assumed Town SDM Kush Jacob Kreb (for the rest of you)
1) We have, through attacks in the thread: Xata/Casey different alignment or both town 2) We have, through attacks in the thread: Kill/Stut different alignment or both town Xata/Casey both town not possible unless Kill/Stut/Draz scum team (not possible according to 2) Kill/Stut both town not possbile unless Draz/Xata/Casey scum team (not possib according to 1) As such both must be different alignment. -> Xata/Casey are different alignment Kill/Stut are different alignment
Possible combinations: A) Draz, Stut, Xata B) Draz, Stut, Casey C) Kill, Draz, Xata D) Kill, Draz, Casey What do these have in common!?!??!?!?!?!?!?! * Drum roll* + Show Spoiler +
Drazak
Some random further speculation. I focused on what these five players said about each other, ignoring what the rest said about them or what they said about the rest. I wouldnt put all that much weigth into this, but might be worth reading.
Stutters seems to have good post, spent time on analyzing/writing them, i think he got good content in his post, definitely not a vote candidate as i see it.
-> All still possible, but D unlikely (why would Casey let Stut off the hook otherwise?). Might point towards B. A and C only means casey is a town genuinely not thinking Stut is mafia.
Please note: - If Jacob, Sonic, Kush or I am mafia, all this is null and should be ignored. - If the Xatalos/Casey situation is fabricated, all this is null (though, that means you have two mafia and just need to find the third) -If the Killing/Stutters situation is fabricated, all this is null (same) But. -- Supposing all these three are true, Drazak is mafia.
My own take on this: -The Killing/Stutters situation is as real as it gets. -The Xatalos/casey situation is a bit wierd. It seems two quite inactive players found each other somewhat randomly. I wouldnt completely put it past them to fabricate this, but I consider it not likely. Worth noting might be that in a previous mafia game Xatalos bussed his fellow mafia friend into glorious mafia victory all solo. So he is no stranger to crafty moves. -I consider Kush, Sonic, Jacob to be fairly solid town reads.
Worth thinking about: What about roleclaiming after N2? I dont know, theres so many possibilities what could happen. But should there be a detective around with some solid reads, he might seriously consider roleclaiming. We also got rid of a (the?) miller. Only Godfather left (or 2nd miller, lets hope there is none....) to fuck up reads. A detective could fill in some blanks.
Also, if anyone sees any problem with my reasoning, or find a reason to believe either or the three assumptions to not be true, its probably a good idea to tell. I dont wanna be the guy putting the final nail in the coffin for town.
I read stutters filter a bunch of times and honestly it does not read like scum to me. His posts are never that wishy washy. He has not always chosen the safe targets. The only reason I see for suspecting him is how he created confusion d2 and promoted the kush/drazak feud, but it's not enough for me.
I've missed a LOT in the recent days, so I'm going to start this with addressing the various unfinished business. Let's start off with Kreb:
On September 05 2012 06:29 Kreb wrote: My biggest mafia-read on the remaining players would be Xatalos. I think he came Into the thread posting with descent activity initially. But eventually it his activity kinda went down, his vote on Cubu didnt convince me of anything, and I still havent forgotten how he commended Kush on Kushs initial jump on me (Which was largely agreed on was not justified). IM not sure why someone would consider such a post to be "very proactive post with good reasoning".
The key word here is "proactive", not "good". kushm4sta's accusation of you wasn't the highest quality post in the thread (although it had the reasonable point of your apparently intentional delaying of contributions), but if you look at the motivation behind kushm4sta's post, it doesn't look like something Mafia would say at all. It was a bold and attention-grabbing move, which leads me to believe that kushm4sta was just going with his gut feeling and not manipulating the thread more subtly (like Mafia tend to do). Combined with his overall reckless style, I put him as probably my best town read at that time.
I agree that my low activity and hasty vote for Cubu haven't been helpful, but unfortunately, I just haven't had the time to play properly. As you can see, this lack of proper activity has nearly got me lynched so far... While if I had just pretended to be busy, I could have easily just been slightly more active and so avoided all these cumulative suspicions. Why take such a stupid risk as Mafia? At worst it's a null tell in my opinion.
Then kushm4sta...
On September 06 2012 08:53 kushm4sta wrote: Someone else I WanT to get people'S thoughts on are drazzak. He is a semi-lurker and all around Bad poster. So losing him would not mean losing good town, unlike a lynch on xatalos. His aTtacK on me seems scummy for various reasons.. possibly defending his scumbuddy by attacking his scumbuddy'S attacker. Also I would like to make a post about the drazzak xatalos connection. If you read the filter xatalos has a HistOry of defending drazzak and calling his posts good when they Really aren't.
On September 04 2012 00:05 Xatalos wrote: I also don't think drazak is MaFia. The typical reaction for pressured MaFia is to get angry, aggressive or desperate, but in my eyes, he has tried to be genuinely helpful - giving away a lot of unnecessary information in case he Actually was MaFia. The somewhat frustrated tone in his posts also points more to town than MaFia.
When i read this i was like ...huh? Drazak'S defense of thrawn'S vote Actually made him seeM more suspicious to me. I would not call him genuinely helpful at all. It seems very out of place reading xatalos' filter that he would be that accepting of drazak.
drazak didn't really seem afraid or pressured there. Instead, it looked like he was genuinely trying to help (of course everything can be faked, but I just went with my gut feeling in that situation). Maybe I also felt like he deserved another chance due to his real life circumstances... Some sort of a kindred spirit for me, haha. In more seriousness, drazak's later crusade against you looks townish in my opinion. Again, why make such a bold and risky move as Mafia? It just doesn't make sense. Mafia wants to avoid the "heat" at all costs, not purposefully get into the spotlight with something unusual/unexpected.
I really have to get sleeping now, so I'm going to continue tomorrow. Luckily there's still a lot of time until the next deadline (I don't really think I'm going to get night killed with this kind of activity level....). The suspects are now more limited in number, so there's a good chance of finally hitting a Mafia and still turning this game around.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.
Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
(As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
Basically your rebuttal is that my “entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution” and then you shoot back with accusations of your own. I explain why you’re wrong…
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Alright, a couple of thoughts.
On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote: Im not lurking! I just woke up!
First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here?
This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.
The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about:
1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making.
You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy?
As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: You also say
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all.
The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2.
On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Alright, a couple of thoughts.
On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote: Im not lurking! I just woke up!
First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here?
This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.
The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about:
1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making.
You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy?
As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: You also say
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all.
The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2.
Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before.
Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good.
The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all.
The question you answer here isn’t the one I asked. I wanted to know the intent of your original posts, the posts that made you a suspect in the first place. Which I explain in my next post…
On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Alright, a couple of thoughts.
On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote: Im not lurking! I just woke up!
First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here?
This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.
The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about:
1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making.
You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy?
As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: You also say
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all.
The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2.
Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before.
Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good.
The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all.
EOD = End of day
Honestly I don't find this response very satisfying. It seems like we have quite different experiences from the game though and we might both be biased. Imo d1 the town usually focus way too much on active players while scum try to fly under the radar. That's why I like putting pressure on lurkers, you were just one of them and the one I happened to find the most suspect.
You're saying we're focus too little on motives? The motive of flying under the radar is to just sit back while the town starts flinging poo on eachother. I'm still not sure what your motive of making generic posts was. Maybe someone who followed XXIV can chime in? Thrawn, it seems like you were playing that game?
So what was the motivation behind your generic posts d1? I'm sure a smart player like you have motives. Did you really think they were pro-town?
You came off as really defensive despite it being clear your posts were useless and that you knew the game well enough to understand that they were useless. You were basically saying “hey guys, focus on motives, my motives are clean”, when it’s clear that the motives of generic posts and then just showing up for EOD can easily be motives of scum wanting to fly under the radar. Why so defensive of these useless posts?
D2 you play differently. You contribute with some meta on Kville and calling out KillingTime. This is of course appreciated and gives a reason to let you stay in the game. After the heat you had taken on d1 this was pretty much required and of course what any smart player would do (townie or scum).
My question regarding d2 is one Kreb brought up earlier: the KillingTime accusations. To me they came off as a distraction that hurt the more productive discussions. Did you see any chances of actually lynching KillingTime? If not, why wouldn't you just let those accusations wait?
Good question but a pretty simple answer. No I didn't see a KillingTime lynch as going to happen. However KillingTime would have been my best lynch based off of post content. I wanted a Kville lynch until he actually started contributing. Seeing as it felt like Kville and I were the two main lynch candidates I couldn't let those accusations wait. This is arguable, but the only thing that felt like it kept me alive over Kville yesterday was that I responded to questions (what you call me being defensive I call me clarifying my points since they were broad, I'm not arguing that). Given that the most asked question of me was "Who are your major reads, who do you think is town" etc. there was absolutely no reason for me to not post my best read. I could have made a case on Drazak or Xatalos or imcasey but it would have been a rehashing of others arguments as opposed to bringing a new perspective onto somebody.
I agree with jacob(!) that my scum-hunting has not been good enough to date. That is why I did not mention scumhunting this morning because I was going to be busy today and not have time to do it properly. I am confident SDM & Kreb are town - and despite the arguments I have had with jacob in the past. I think me dying is pretty unlikely given the number of people suspicious of me so there should be plenty of time for me to do it properly tomorrow and try to prove that I am not scum.
I have not been trying to "avoid things most days" I have been trying to lynch scum - here is my view of what happened d2: I responded to Jacob to try and stop his suspicions of me. I posted a case (not a good enough one) against the player who I thought/think is likley mafia. kush/drazerk did not seem likely to be lynchd d2 so I ignored this. Stutters came back strongly against the weaknesses in my case, to the extent that a lynch on him was unlikley. It was lynch time and the choice was between kville who had played terribly all game and xatalos who had an excuse for inactivity.
Anyway: Short update just on reads. It is to be taken separately from my post above.
Given the reads I do think Stutters still remains the person who I think have been getting away with doing the least (excpet casey who I still believe to be a nullread). But Drazak might be the most solid vote given what I posted above. Xatalos, hard to read, neutral or nullread simply because he has barely been posting. KillingTime, havent really got time to dive into him as much as I maybe should have. Should I survive I'll probably do that. Casey is a nullread.
Regarding townread. Kush and Jacob I both get the feeling they genuinely try to contribute and that their motives and actions are pro-town. Sonic still remains as someone who does thoughtful posts and solid reads imo. Out of the three townreads he is the one I'd most likely to believe has mind fucked us all and is a sneaky mafia :p But no, he seems very townish.
On September 08 2012 07:02 kushm4sta wrote: haha ok so xatalos, stutters, and killing all post 10 minutes within each other hmmm..
I.don't think that is scummy at all on its own. Should.you have.a desire to look into this you need to read the filters and make a case based on.evidence that.is more concrete. Xatalos was addrssing Kush while bringing up something related to Drazak.I'm addressing Jacob's question for me and killing time.was answering general questions about him. I don't see what connection you can take out of that except people were online at the same time.
Sorry.about the formatting. I'm out at the.moment and typing from my phone and Swype.has this habit of adding periods without me actually touching the period.
On September 08 2012 08:05 Kreb wrote: Anyway: Short update just on reads. It is to be taken separately from my post above.
Given the reads I do think Stutters still remains the person who I think have been getting away with doing the least (excpet casey who I still believe to be a nullread). But Drazak might be the most solid vote given what I posted above. Xatalos, hard to read, neutral or nullread simply because he has barely been posting. KillingTime, havent really got time to dive into him as much as I maybe should have. Should I survive I'll probably do that. Casey is a nullread.
Regarding townread. Kush and Jacob I both get the feeling they genuinely try to contribute and that their motives and actions are pro-town. Sonic still remains as someone who does thoughtful posts and solid reads imo. Out of the three townreads he is the one I'd most likely to believe has mind fucked us all and is a sneaky mafia :p But no, he seems very townish.
Reasonable. Day 1 was an anomaly for my play this game but obviously you have no way of knowing that. Hopefully my input after the night when we know exactly what we have to go off of for.mylo will clear.up any concerns regarding me. Xatalos.you need to actually contribute and be active come daytime.there.is no excuse for lurking this late in the game with how much.info is out there and.That it's the weekend so you should.Have more time.
Alright, I typed this post about 3 hours ago as a reply to Jacob, intended for tomorrow. If I get whacked, I wouldn’t want this post to go missing though, so I set my alarm (posts made in the last 3 hours will for obvious reasons be ignored in this post).
On September 07 2012 23:01 JacobStrangelove wrote: + Show Spoiler +
This is a large post but it has been cut into sections of Defense of Imcasey, defense on stutters, case on killing, case on drazak. I will save Kreb for another time as it would be too long otherwise. I just hope the formating works.
Ok this is the start of a very long post as of such I will try to be as clear and concise as possible.
Kreb you missed a large section of my argument for why WeeTee Imcasey is town. First off I will show you the backstory. If you look at WeeTees first posts it includes this.
On September 02 2012 21:19 WeeTee wrote: Good to see you here @jacob should be a good game this time!
It is evident that he and I know each other. Why else would he single me out? In other words I know how he plays. I know his meta better than anybody in this thread. Also watching his last mafia game he has used the exact same play style. Now you mention that it isn’t an imcasey read it’s a WeeTee read. Yes but they are the same person. It’s as if you put someone with multiple personalities in the thread but they are the same person. If I am 99% sure WeeTee is town I can assume that translates over to imcasey. Also there are plenty of reasons for the less posting style. With him having to leave this means he was unlikely to be able to form cases day one. Also with the replacement going into his first game a day in so much to read and this would also contribute to the lack of posting. I will post the part you missed about my argument for WeeTee.
On September 05 2012 19:22 JacobStrangelove wrote: I probably should point out that part of the reason I had a town read for WeeTee is that I happen to know his style (see his first post where he mentions it’s good to see me) and it reeks of town. With this (although he may have fooled me) I thought Xatatos read of WeeTee when Stutters was available strange. Also with killing he is sceptical of “meta” reads
On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote: My point was that I did not think your town reads added much to the thread, partly because I am very sceptical of "meta" reads at this point given that we all have 3 or less games.
Sure but its more information, that can only be helpful. If WeeTee fits his meta (he does) and he fits the meta I know he is unlikely to be scum. This and the fact that he had to leave due to time problems(although that may have been after my time line is a little messed up) then surely stutters were a better lynch.
While the argument in context might be a little out of date the facts about WeeTee remain the same.
Also there is this from kville (he was talking to xatalos at the time), while kville was a little trolish you can’t tell me this doesn’t make sense.
On September 05 2012 22:55 Kville wrote: Well WeeTee Did get replaced which could be the reason why he was playing so "safe" and conservative. He badnwagoned to avoid a modkill in order to fulfill the replacement, so it seems. The fact that there is little to no evidence other than "he was playing safe" doesn't really seem like a sure vote to go for, unless you are trying for another mislynch. You vote and leave the first day and you do it again the second time. It seems like your strategy seems to be "POP" then lurk. which seems a bit suspicious.
And finally we have nothing proven scum against him. I am sure if we examine the filters of people we can come up with a far better target. Non of this let’s backup vote imcasey stuff, that just makes it more likely the scum will spread confusion and force us to vote for him.
Now I would also like to point out this.
On September 07 2012 15:09 KillingTime wrote: ... well that is annoying. I agree that the reason that we ended up with a Xatalos v Kville situation was because we were all accusing each other. I said at the start of the day I really hoped that we could come up with a better lynch target.. but we did not. Scum have succeeded in thoroughly bamboozling me I have to say. I will look into the thread this evening and I'll be happy to answer questions from those who have suspicions of me.
After the flip Kush and I immediately analyse it talk about it start making reads etc... Kililng comes in and makes a “annoyed post” and also says he is bamboozled and says he is happy to answer questions about himself. He makes no mention of scum hunting. Why? Because he doesn’t need to hunt scum, he is scum. This is another fluff post saying he is confused. Surely he would have an opinion on what happened. He says so much however his major posts are lists and he is very non committal. Surely someone else sees this! While my arguments up until this points haven’t been the clearest if you think I am town why do you think I hardly left Killings side. Intuition has to could for something and it has.
He was not able to answer why he was so non committal his only reply was
On September 07 2012 00:01 KillingTime wrote: First, if you feel I have been non-committal or weak in my play then I can only apologise and say this is my first game and I am definitely learning as I go. That is not an excuse, but it is the most likely explanation for "weak" town play on my part. I think Kreb, Drazak & Sonic are town, everyone else I am currently suspicious of.
This is not really a reply, for me it is an excuse that anybody could use. Also his case on stutters is due to kush/xatalos pushing the conversation away from him. His one major non listed case was based on association.
On September 06 2012 17:02 KillingTime wrote: Ok, having re-read through a bunch of filters today I think we should lynch Stutters695 - Yes his posting/lurking has been/is reason enough to lynch him. But, reading back through filters there has been way to much redirection of discussion away from him as a good lynch - particularly from kush. ... Now, this does not mean that both Kush & Xatalos are mafia if stutters flips - but that is WAY too much subtle redirecting of a target for me. Stutters is as scummy as anyone at this point, if he flips we will have some strong targets for d3. If we lynch him and he is not mafia, town is in a bad spot - but we are in a bad spot regardless of who we lynch if they flip and are not mafia (kreb has convinced me of this with his case against kville that there is no point not going for lurkers.).
I would also like to point out that kush seems to be following his meta as well. Admittedly meta talk in a newbie game is a little hard but you would think rolling scum would mess with how they would act. Also if you notice stutters filter and replies I will tell you why he is likely town.
He did have a slow start day one. Considering drazak kville weetee cubu all had slow day one starts two who are confirmed town and one who I pointed out seems confirmed town to me this is no reason for a scum read. What you should look at is the quality and logical reasoning in his filter. You should read the whole post but in particular.
On September 06 2012 17:02 KillingTime wrote: I think kville is not a terrible lynch. But Stutters is better and more scummy, and throws alot of suspicions on others who seem to have been redirecting a/the serious Stutters wagon so far...
Please explain what part of my play has been more scummy than someone who has been trolling the thread and not contributed anything? ##FoS Killing Time I need to go through his filter but this isn't the first time he hasn't taken a stance on issues while posting "reads" that don't actually commit longterm.
While kville did show up as town in the lynch he was an easy lynch, scum would want to lynch the slightly harder targets so they have a free win by the time they get to end game. For example if we lynched stutters it would be easy to convince town to lynch kville. If anything if we spent another day with him in the game we would have been frustrated into lynching him.
Also he returns fire on killing time and is way more active engaged asking questions giving responces. He questions kush and drazak on the issues and responds on a manner I can only call logical. His filter isn’t filled with fluff so I suggest you read it for yourself as everything he says comes across in a pro town questioning way.
Now I am going to transition to drazak. His vote on kush only caused confusion and was purely a slug fest with no real reasoning behind it. After being “caught out” as such by kville and stutters plus the kush argument he backs out and doesn’t comment. He hardly provides good reasons for his mistakes, Also he has a bad habit of calling kville useless. However enough of that I will provide posts and reasons.
On September 06 2012 18:03 drazak wrote: My accusation wasn't out of nowhere, I made a read based on what happened, I reasoned, carefully. I saw that Kush wasn't scumhunting day 1. If you're not scumhunting, you're not furthering town, if you're not furthering town... you're mafia. I then saw kush slipped by overreacting to me. Feel free to poke holes in my actual reasoning instead of calling me scum for making a reasoned accusation.
Kush wasn’t scum hunting day one? I’m a freaking unicycling unicorn. First his Kush isn’t scum hunting read is based on this.
On September 04 2012 03:01 kushm4sta wrote: Why town should all vote for cuba
Worst case scenario:he flips green No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.
Best case scenario: he is mafia If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game. People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn. People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn. Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else. Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?
We need three more votes on cuba.
I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches.
Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush. ##Vote Kushm4sta
But then his day one post was this
On September 03 2012 21:24 drazak wrote: My best read is cubu. He's tried to throw suspiscion, he stopped posting when he had nobody to lay thin accusations on. Cubu has posted only with low content, low value posts, he hasn't had any real reads other than discussing statistics and how afk I was. I think Cubu isn't a great D1 lynch though, which is why he doesn't currently have my vote, if he continues to have such low content posts tomorrow, he will certainly have my vote. Cubu is someone we can try to analyze tomorrow and figure out if he really is mafia, we can't analyze kville, and if we wait to lynch kville it's not going to get better, we don't even have a baseline for him.
To that point, I'm someone you can analyze D2, you have several posts by me, with fairly decent content. Even if kville isn't mafia, he isn't helping anyone. In addition, I felt that going for cubu would just be bandwagoning at this point, which as town doesn't help me at all, espescially considering I do have my own unique thoughts, which I have shared with everyone.
The whole “even if kville isn’t mafia he isn’t helping anyone” isn’t this the same thing? They are both talking about lynching the worst townie however drazak covers himself better (something a scum would do over a town) refering to the bandwagon and trying to convince people he is town by pointing out he is town not just assuming everyone knows he is town. “which as town doesn't help me at all” This would be obvious if he was town.
Anyway these are my thoughts on Drazak. Because of the lengh of this post I will save Krebs analises for my next post probably (if I find anything) My intuitive thoughts are “he has seemed town but he is saying some strange stuff that I need to look into.”
I know I’ve given you kind of a hard time, but I like this post. It’s easy to comment on because you really managed to make it express it clearly. That doesn’t mean I agree with everything and I have some questions/thoughts (some of your points I simply don’t understand, but I’ll be leaving those aside for the moment):
WeeTee/imcasey – I’m not as convinced as you are 1. Do you have meta reads on WeeTee playing as both townie and scum? Otherwise your meta read becomes a bit shakey. 2. About Kville’s argument, I don’t agree. Maybe you do given your meta, but the fact that he made himself one of the prime suspects d1 means he wasn’t “playing safe”. If he was townie and was worried about getting suspected, he would’ve tried to contribute more and better. 3. The meta read is still a just-trust-me-on-this-one read. While I would like to be able to just trust you, I can’t blindly do that. 4. I think it’s pretty clear imcasey is a newbie and in order to clear himself as townie, I encourage him to post as much as possible. Newbies are likely to slip up as they increase their activity. 5. This doesn’t mean I think imcasey will become a good d3 lynch. We would really like a lynch from which we can gain information. Since we’re in a terrible position where (if I understand the rules correctly) we might need to have three consecutive scum-lynches. I don’t see how the Combined posts/votes of WeeTee/imcasey will give us much info at a red flip. But if imcasey keeps a low activity level, he’ll be at risk later days if we get there.
KillingTime – The case certainly has some good points 1. He has indeed been very non-committal on his scum reads. 2. His town reads are very “safe” as well. 3. “He makes no mention of scum hunting. Why? Because he doesn’t need to hunt scum, he is scum.” – This seems like a classic example of feeling guilty (because you are) and being trapped inside the thought process of a scum (typical newbie tell). 4. It’s still an open case for me and I haven’t done much research on my own.
Stutters – I think you would like to think you have a good townie read 1. It kind of seems to me like your main reason for town clearing Stutters is because he was basically the first one on-board of your Killing case and helped blowing wind into your windmill. (is that even a saying?) 2. “He returns fire on killing time”, is that really a townie read for you? 3. It is possible he picked up on a misread of yours and took that as an opportunity to gain an ally while at the same time getting a townie lynched. 4. Hell, from my point-of-view you could even be working together. A conspiracy I know, I’m just saying any combo of t/t, s/t and s/s is possible as far as I’m concerned (although I don’t have scum lean on you). 5. He does ask a lot of questions, I’ll give him that. It’s a good sign but like I’ve said in previous posts, it doesn’t necessarily make him townie.
I’m obviously conflicted, since I feel like the case on Killing is a pretty good one, but I’m not confident Stutters is a townie either. Both can’t be scum unless we have some epic leveling going on. Not only is epic leveling in itself unlikely, but it’d make no sense for Stutters to bus Killing considering the Killing wagon had little momentum before Stutters’ accusations. I think looking closer at Stutters answers to my questions can be helpful. Moreover, it’s almost as if Xatalos is slipping through the cracks, he’s another potential lynch we’re waiting to hear from.
I’m definitely not set on who to lynch. We need to keep going, ask questions and see what develops. In the end we need to find the best possible lynch. The most likely scum isn’t necessarily the best possible lynch, because we need to take into account what information we gain given a red flip. I would also like to point out that we’ll likely only be at a 5 to 3 advantage tomorrow. It seems to me we pretty much have to form a consensus on who to vote for, or a last minute scum switch can cost us the game (barring some kind of blue role save).
As of right now, the three main candidates for me are: Killing Xatalos Stutter I might add that I haven’t been totally convinced of the drazak case. I agree he’s made some weird cases and arguments, but he didn’t particularly strike me as scum. I haven’t read his filter though, he’s at best neutral to me.
Kush and Kreb are still my only town reads. I don’t find drazak’s case against Kush convincing and still, no-one has commented on my town read logic. Kreb is a “feel read”, so take it fwiw (I’ve made a n2 post on this).
I hope I’ll be here tomorrow. If so, my activity level might drop a little because I have a friend visiting over the weekend. I’ll try to find time to catch up whenever I can though.
Ok so according to kreb's logic post, either one of the mafia feuds was fake, or jacob or sonic or me are mafia. 4 town 3 mafia. That means there are a lot of mafia among us -.-
If i had to guess at this point I would say xatalos, stutters and killingtime, and the fued between stutters and killing was manufactured. Also I think I might have to read sonic's poster closer. Everyone always just assumed he was town because his posts are consistently good though. But maybe that consistency come from a scumlike carefulness. We can still win but if we lynch wrong 1 day we lose. I'm pretty sure that's how it worked out. Also I assume we have a vig and they killed drazak. No idea why they didn't kill a lurker n1 though...
This weekend I'm working 8 am to 8 pm saturday and sunday. So unfortunately I'm going to be lurking pretty hard. However I think I will get to check my phone often so I will be able to write shitty posts on my phone.
I'm kinda stunned... but yeah the drazak kill was a vig, on the plus side we should be able to work out who is the vig. Also something I thought of, if the stutters killingtime is manufactured then of course stutters is making logical points. Because he is hunting scum. This sends a serious spanner in the works though.
It does make sense that one of the relationships would be manufactured at this point. If they didn't then it would be too obvious. I would say it's more likely than one of the people I have confirmed as town to be mafia. Only my opinion though.
Whoa I think I know who the vig is and it makes almost perfect sense... If you are town think about who the vig would be carefully. This is all I probably should say for know. I will have an argument for who the vig is incase "the vig" is going to be lynched.
As for lynch targets for today I would leave xatalos for later same with stutters. Personanly I would go with Killing Time he just can't seem to reply to the arguments but either or I would be fine with if someone does bring up a good argument.
Kush has so far pushed Drazak, Kreb & Cubu - &FOS's xatalos. Leaving aside Xatalos, that is a 100% miss rate so far and now you are pushing me because my reads are too safe and non-committal. Welp, that is pretty funny. I have no idea why town should trust anything you say at this point.
Also - I have no idea why you are asking that question because the vig has only one shot?
I agree.with sonic that we should roelclaim at this point - we need all the info we can get because if we mislynch again we lose
On September 08 2012 12:46 kushm4sta wrote: Will a vigi shot still go through if he's killed that night by mafia?
It depends on hosts preference, but most of the time, the kills happen "Simultaneously", as in, the Vigi shot and the mafia shot happen at the same time.
That’s a highly extensive argument you have there. (will get to it later)
However why should we need to role claim? It’s obvious who the vigilante is, medic is dead, if we have a roleblocker he hasn’t stopped anyone yet (so no evidence to know he is jailkeeper) unless the cop (if we have one) has good reads and has breadcrumbed them then we shouldn’t role claim. If he has got reads with breadcrumbs then he should be the one to decide if we role claim. Even then there could be a framer (sonic missed this) and god father in the scum team. If you know there is a role claim would benefit mafia.
That said I am not completely against it. It is up to the cop but if he does role claim he is the next target as medic can’t save him.
On September 08 2012 14:35 KillingTime wrote: Kush has so far pushed Drazak, Kreb & Cubu - &FOS's xatalos. Leaving aside Xatalos, that is a 100% miss rate so far and now you are pushing me because my reads are too safe and non-committal. Welp, that is pretty funny. I have no idea why town should trust anything you say at this point.
Also - I have no idea why you are asking that question because the vig has only one shot?
I agree.with sonic that we should roelclaim at this point - we need all the info we can get because if we mislynch again we lose
Maybe we shouldn't trust kush but I have a much higher anti hit rate. (not voting kville thought kreb was town was wary of drazak however but thought you would be better over him also kreb was going for drazak and it turns out he was wrong (and confirmed town)) Also I don't think he pushed kreb much at all apart from the first day (provide quotes past that?)
If you want me to believe you post a full case not just accusations without quotes and context. Not only are you too safe and non commital you are also posting fluff (such as your day 2 night posts) and I have had massive amounts of circumstantial evidence against you all game. While you brushed them off and that would be fine if that is all we had now we have a solid case and those little things I was bugging you about.
On September 08 2012 14:35 KillingTime wrote: Kush has so far pushed Drazak, Kreb & Cubu - &FOS's xatalos. Leaving aside Xatalos, that is a 100% miss rate so far and now you are pushing me because my reads are too safe and non-committal. Welp, that is pretty funny. I have no idea why town should trust anything you say at this point.
Also - I have no idea why you are asking that question because the vig has only one shot?
I agree.with sonic that we should roelclaim at this point - we need all the info we can get because if we mislynch again we lose
I think this is a very disingenuous accusal. I pushed kreb?? For about 5 seconds early in the game d1 to get him to contribute more. And never again. I do admit to pushing cubu but why would mafia push that hard so unnecessarily d1? Yeah I suspected Drazak, but so did many other town. Plus he accused me which got me pissed at him... I'm sorry for that. And yes I FOS xatalos and I still do.
@Jacob ##fos sonic. He has not been getting enough scrutiny as he should and I have not noticed him all game. He's been so under the radar all game, which is suspicious to me.
So I have to leave for work now, but before I go let me point something out. Xatalos, Stutters, and Killing, who had not made a post in quite a while, all post within 10 minutes of each other. Could this be a coincidence? Absolutely. But I also think it could be a scumslip and they have a scummeet to discuss who they are killing and their plan of action. I think it would be a very big coincidence that they all post at the same time after not posting for so long.
On September 08 2012 10:01 kushm4sta wrote: Now we learn if we actually have a medic maybe....
On September 08 2012 10:19 BioSC wrote: drazak, the Medic, was found dead!
LOL, this just cracked me up.
This doesn't have to be too bad though. Obviously getting our medic killed off is unquestionably bad, but we didn't know we had one anyway, so let's just pretend drazak was a vanilla townie :p
I was thinking we'd likely end up 5 to 3, but now we're 4 to 3. We're still looking at the same scenario, we need to lynch three consecutive scum. However, now we need to find 3 out of 7 players instead of 3 out of 8. Simple probability theory tells us that the former is quite a lot easier. At least given that drazak wasn't considered anywhere near a cleared townie. It's also possible that there's a good vig strat where we can end the game in d4 (not sure yet if that'd make sense for us though and we still obv need to find all scum).
One thing I find really weird is your discussions about the vig. To me it seems like only way you can know who the vig is by having extra info. I know there are three red players in this game with more info than the rest of us, so I'm really curious how Kush and Jacob can be so sure. Sorry for being passive aggressive, but I don't want to throw out all my thoughts on the vig situation right now.
On September 08 2012 14:35 KillingTime wrote: Kush has so far pushed Drazak, Kreb & Cubu - &FOS's xatalos. Leaving aside Xatalos, that is a 100% miss rate so far and now you are pushing me because my reads are too safe and non-committal. Welp, that is pretty funny. I have no idea why town should trust anything you say at this point.
Also - I have no idea why you are asking that question because the vig has only one shot?
I agree.with sonic that we should roelclaim at this point - we need all the info we can get because if we mislynch again we lose
On September 08 2012 20:06 kushm4sta wrote: @Jacob ##fos sonic. He has not been getting enough scrutiny as he should and I have not noticed him all game. He's been so under the radar all game, which is suspicious to me.
Fair enough. I haven't been under the radar because I haven't contributed though, but because none of you guys have been questioning me. It's not like I'm going to build cases against myself.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.
Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
(As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
Basically your rebuttal is that my “entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution” and then you shoot back with accusations of your own. I explain why you’re wrong…
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Alright, a couple of thoughts.
On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote: Im not lurking! I just woke up!
First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here?
This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.
The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about:
1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making.
You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy?
As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: You also say
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all.
The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2.
On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Alright, a couple of thoughts.
On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote: Im not lurking! I just woke up!
First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here?
This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.
The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about:
1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making.
You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy?
As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: You also say
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all.
The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2.
Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before.
Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good.
The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all.
The question you answer here isn’t the one I asked. I wanted to know the intent of your original posts, the posts that made you a suspect in the first place. Which I explain in my next post…
On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Alright, a couple of thoughts.
On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote: Im not lurking! I just woke up!
First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here?
This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.
The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about:
1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making.
You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy?
As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: You also say
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all.
The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2.
Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before.
Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good.
The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all.
EOD = End of day
Honestly I don't find this response very satisfying. It seems like we have quite different experiences from the game though and we might both be biased. Imo d1 the town usually focus way too much on active players while scum try to fly under the radar. That's why I like putting pressure on lurkers, you were just one of them and the one I happened to find the most suspect.
You're saying we're focus too little on motives? The motive of flying under the radar is to just sit back while the town starts flinging poo on eachother. I'm still not sure what your motive of making generic posts was. Maybe someone who followed XXIV can chime in? Thrawn, it seems like you were playing that game?
So what was the motivation behind your generic posts d1? I'm sure a smart player like you have motives. Did you really think they were pro-town?
You came off as really defensive despite it being clear your posts were useless and that you knew the game well enough to understand that they were useless. You were basically saying “hey guys, focus on motives, my motives are clean”, when it’s clear that the motives of generic posts and then just showing up for EOD can easily be motives of scum wanting to fly under the radar. Why so defensive of these useless posts?
D2 you play differently. You contribute with some meta on Kville and calling out KillingTime. This is of course appreciated and gives a reason to let you stay in the game. After the heat you had taken on d1 this was pretty much required and of course what any smart player would do (townie or scum).
My question regarding d2 is one Kreb brought up earlier: the KillingTime accusations. To me they came off as a distraction that hurt the more productive discussions. Did you see any chances of actually lynching KillingTime? If not, why wouldn't you just let those accusations wait?
Good question but a pretty simple answer. No I didn't see a KillingTime lynch as going to happen. However KillingTime would have been my best lynch based off of post content. I wanted a Kville lynch until he actually started contributing. Seeing as it felt like Kville and I were the two main lynch candidates I couldn't let those accusations wait. This is arguable, but the only thing that felt like it kept me alive over Kville yesterday was that I responded to questions (what you call me being defensive I call me clarifying my points since they were broad, I'm not arguing that). Given that the most asked question of me was "Who are your major reads, who do you think is town" etc. there was absolutely no reason for me to not post my best read. I could have made a case on Drazak or Xatalos or imcasey but it would have been a rehashing of others arguments as opposed to bringing a new perspective onto somebody.
The question I found the most interesting among those I asked was the last one. With all the info we have now, I didn't think the d1 case against you is very strong anymore (we should be able to make better decisions than basing reads from limited d1 reads). However, the last question was trap (which is why I was a little annoyed that Jacob tried to answer the questions for you). I thought through the possible answers and came to the conclusion that there were three:
1) You thought there was actually a good chance of lynching Killing. 2) You didn't think there was a good chance but you thought it was a good idea to discuss it asap. 3) You were trying to save your own ass.
So I was considering what excuse a scum would use:
1) Not only do I myself think the possibility of a Killing lynch was really small, shortly after Strutter made his Killing case, he posted this: "Currently though my best vote is without a doubt on Kville". So if he had claimed he thought there was a good chance of lynching Killing he would've been FOS. 2) This is answer is just dumb. Stutter doesn't seem dumb. This answer would've also been FOS, bet less so than 1) because it could be that our opinions just differed. 3) I think this is the least likely answer a scum would give, but the most likely actual reason behind bringing it up (whether townie or scum). Note that he was on both mine and Kreb's list of highly suspects before making the Killing case, but was afterwards dropped from most d2 lynch discussions.
Basically you gave me the exact reasoning I had expected from an honest townie. While this doesn't necessarily clear you (because it could also be the answer from a really good scum), it does make Stutter a lot more townie in my book.
On September 08 2012 20:19 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Where did I say we should roleclaim?
Sorry it was kreb in his night post - for some reason I thought it was in your long post on p32 but actually it was his suggestion just above on the page... Without devoting time to setup speculation I think it is reasonable to assume that we have a cop given that a miller has flipped, and he could help us out today if he so chose. That said, it is clearly for the cop to decide whether to claim and others to go from there. If the cop (if there is one) doesn’t want to claim for whatever reasons then a “forced” roleclaim is no good.
yeah the vigi does only have 1 shot. so there's nothing wrong with revealing him. I'm pretty certain it's iamcasey, although the vigi only having 1 shot makes me less certain. !!there is no reason why vigi shouldn't roleclaim at this point.!! I doubt mafia would risk a counterclaim and we could have a confirmed town.
It's obvious we've gained a lot of information today. I feel like the field being limited to seven players, this is the first time we can actually think about entire 3-way teams. Like I said in my post yesterday, I find a Stutter and Killing conspiracy unlikely (a mastermind would be needed, because it's very well crafted). Given my latest post I'm leaning scum on Killing, townie on Stutter.
Still, from the last days I'm leaning townie on Kush, scum on Xatalos (although Kreb's point that it's a null read has some merit), currently I'm pretty neutral on Jacob and imcasey is a total null read. Jacob, could you address my post from yesterday? I don't understand the imcasey = sure townie argument. I don't have a lot of time atm so I won't throw out random team reads. I will make sure to be back later tonight though.
On September 08 2012 21:33 kushm4sta wrote: yeah the vigi does only have 1 shot. so there's nothing wrong with revealing him. I'm pretty certain it's iamcasey, although the vigi only having 1 shot makes me less certain. !!there is no reason why vigi shouldn't roleclaim at this point.!! I doubt mafia would risk a counterclaim and we could have a confirmed town.
I thought it was Jacob or Kreb. Kreb obviously made a case for drazak before his if-I-die-post, Jacob made a case n2 as well. But basically anyone who read Kreb's post could've made the shot if they found it convincing. That's why I found it weird why anyone would be so sure. Obviously if Kreb was vig there's not going to be any claim.
Fuck, I knew I should've thought this through before posting. We should not discuss the vig. If the vig is around he can wait to claim d4 or d5 when it's more valuable. Only if he's about to get lynched he should claim.
@sonic check the first mod post. Vig only has 1 shot all game long. He is useless now except as someone who can roleclaim and Confirm town. Ps my phone bat is running low quickly so expect a sudden drop off of activity.
On September 08 2012 21:49 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Still, from the last days I'm leaning townie on Kush, scum on Xatalos (although Kreb's point that it's a null read has some merit), currently I'm pretty neutral on Jacob and imcasey is a total null read. Jacob, could you address my post from yesterday? I don't understand the imcasey = sure townie argument. I don't have a lot of time atm so I won't throw out random team reads. I will make sure to be back later tonight though.
I thought I addressed this in my long night post? I will check what you said though.
On September 08 2012 22:20 kushm4sta wrote: @sonic check the first mod post. Vig only has 1 shot all game long. He is useless now except as someone who can roleclaim and Confirm town. Ps my phone bat is running low quickly so expect a sudden drop off of activity.
Doesn't matter. Vig shouldn't claim. If X is vig and gets to a three person end game, he can claim and we increase our chances drastically. If he claims now he gets whacked and we have no information in the end game. Only if he's up for lynching should he claim.
The problem is if Kreb is vig, that leaves it wide open for fake roleclaim. Will have to think more, but don't discuss who's vig yet and don't claim before we've thought this through.
On September 08 2012 22:31 kushm4sta wrote: Nice I found a charger. @Sonic who do you think we shouldLynch d3? Aka who is your strongest scum read atm. Because we can't get this wrong.
I think Killing is the strongest case, but I'm unsure if we gain enough info if he flips red (it would give one more day of getting info though). We shouldn't focus too much on one player yet. I need to think this through more but I don't have the time atm.
I just read through Sonics filter and it doesn't read scum to me. He just puts way too much effort into some of the posts. I think mafia would not post with putting that much effort into being pro town because they would feel like it was a waste of time.
That was a bad turn of events... Now it's only 4-3 and Mafia can vote switch at the last minute to lynch anyone they want, UNLESS every town player is already voting for a Mafia. That means we should stop focusing on elaborate connection theories and slight reads. The only way we're winning this is if everyone consolidates their vote on one player. If no player has 4 or more votes, it's an automatic loss, no matter what else happens. We must lynch the most likely Mafia player today, and no other factors can be considered in the lynch (such as information gained from the flip).
Looks like Kreb never got the chance to write an answer to my previous post :/ You're here though, kushm4sta. Don't you have anything to say about my reply to your (now obviously false) drazak/Xatalos connection theories? If you want to know something more, just ask.
When considering today's lynch, I'm going to just flat-out ignore kushm4sta, JacobStrangelove and Sonic Death Monkey as lynch candidates. You three have been the most active and contributive posters so far, which also makes you the most likely townies. I'm not saying there can't be Mafia among you, but if we somehow managed to get 4 votes on one of you, the chance of hitting Mafia wouldn't be good. Certainly one of you flipping Mafia would make it much easier to find the remaining two Mafia, but as I just explained, we can't risk an immediate loss for future benefits.
That leaves imcasey, Stutters695 and KillingTime. All three have been somewhat lurky or semi-active, but definitely not actively invested in the discussion like kushm4sta, JacobStrangelove and Sonic Death Monkey have. Since the overall chance of hitting Mafia is 43% at this point, lynching one of you three would give us maybe a 60-90% chance of hitting Mafia and the road to victory (after getting one Mafia, it becomes infinitely easier to find the rest).
imcasey
Has strong opinions and a careless posting style (which is townish), but doesn't really explain much. It could be that he's just trying to look like a careless newbie town, but not actually putting in the effort to make fake reasonings for his opinions. He also has posts like this:
On September 06 2012 20:50 imcasey wrote: Seriously ? I feel i have a solid case here, and not a single one of you have replied to anything of what i wrote. I encourage everyone to read my post again, is it only me that think iv got a pretty solid case here ? I am sure Xatalos is mafia and he will be my vote.
What the heck? He is totally sure I'm Mafia after a short and lackluster case against me? This gives me the impression of overdoing the newbie act and trying to look aggressive without backing it up.
The situation looks worse for imcasey if we also look at WeeTee's filter. Considering WeeTee's extremely fluffy posting and empty walls of text, imcasey's strong opinions might be an attempt to make people forget about WeeTee's neutral opinions and flip-flopping by acting in a very different way from WeeTee.
Stutters695
Day 1 was very non-committing and fluffy for him. Even his vote for Cubu was extremely non-committing:
On September 04 2012 05:15 Stutters695 wrote: Anyway unless Cubu comes back and posts some content I think he's our best lynch today.He's provided nothing. He's skirted issues and essentially said he shouldn't be lynched because other people post less (even though if you tally his posts since the initial first few on policy and the like he's said absolutely nothing of value).
By the same token I'd support a lynch on Kville if we can consolidate enough votes on him. There is at least one person who said they probably won't be back before lynch who is on Cubu and we can't trust Kville's vote on himself. Because of that I have to go with Cubu but I'm open to switching if there is support.
##Vote Cubu
It looks like his reason for voting Cubu was that there was already a bandwagon going against Cubu, not because Cubu was suspicious. The worst Stutters695 could say about Cubu is "he's provided nothing". Okay, that's anti-town, but not necessarily a Mafia trait. Mafia would want to have at least something in their filter to avoid immediate death. Stutters695's decision to vote for Cubu was so non-committing and weakly reasoned that it looks unlikely he even actually cared about which player would get lynched. Who doesn't care about the lynch target? That's right: Mafia.
After that Stutters695 makes a good analysis of some suspicious traits in KillingTime's filter. Even so, he votes for kville (for being useless) and puts KillingTime as his #2. Sometime later I'm suddenly his #2 suspect (up from #4 / #5) without any explanations for this change of opinion:
On September 07 2012 09:32 Stutters695 wrote: A little late in the day but if Kville can keep up his more recent posting I'd be willing to switch to Xatalos over him.
What? No reasoning, just plainly stating that he'd maybe want to lynch me instead of kville? Same as with the Cubu lynch, Stutters695 doesn't look like he wants to commit to anything. It's as if he's afraid to be linked with any particular lynch. Again, who would have such a motivation: Mafia.
KillingTime
Looking at KillingTime's filter more closely, I think I've made a mistake. Earlier I thought he's probably town, because he has shared his reads very openly and self-imposedly. However, it's not unusual for Mafia to make big lists about their "reads" (actually just small pieces of opinion) to look like they're contributing - while actually not contributing much at all. KillingTime has shared his reads on other players regularly, but he hasn't actually scumhunted or pushed the discussion forward. Basically, he has been flying under the radar by posting pseudo-contributions to look like he's doing something. That's a strong Mafia motivation.
- - -
I think it's almost certain that 2-3 of these players are Mafia. The question is, who of them is the most likely Mafia? We must guess correctly or we lose instantly. We also must get 4 votes on one player or we lose instantly. I want to hear your thoughts: kushm4sta, JacobStrangelove and Sonic Death Monkey. What do you think about imcasey, Stutters695 and KillingTime?
@sonic kreb was a vanilla townie it said so when he was killed. I think we should focus on 1 person. We have no certain mafia yet, so relying of associative cases, looking for the scumteam before the scum adds too much complexity, too many variables to our search.
I think kiLLing is the most scumlike person and the best lynch. Do people agree or not?
Kush - your question to the mod was established that Kreb could have been the vig and that therefore any claim couldn't be trusted. (Though I misinterpreted and thought you thought they had more than 1 shot) - You knew this then you make a post saying:
There's nothing wrong with revealing him. I'm pretty certain it's iamcasey, although the vigi only having 1 shot makes me less certain. !!there is no reason why vigi shouldn't roleclaim at this point.!! I doubt mafia would risk a counterclaim and we could have a confirmed town.
This is the largest single failure of logic in this thread... the only reason I am not calling this a scumslip is that it is almost too blatant. What on earth were you trying to achieve with this second post?
@xatalos my drazak xatalos theories were obviously quite stupid and wrong. Yes. I suspect you less now and less the more I think about it. I mean all my suspicions were wrong and I suspected you... So my suspicion of you gives you some towncred by.extension of my retardation I guess
On September 08 2012 23:33 kushm4sta wrote: @sonic kreb was a vanilla townie it said so when he was killed. I think we should focus on 1 person. We have no certain mafia yet, so relying of associative cases, looking for the scumteam before the scum adds too much complexity, too many variables to our search.
I think kiLLing is the most scumlike person and the best lynch. Do people agree or not?
Oh fuck, I was being stupid. That means: Absolutely no vig claim and no discussion of the vig.
I think we should focus on at least a few different candidates. Let's hear others opinions though.
We all seem to agree that KillingTime is scum.(and lynch target) If he isn't we are completely screwed and mafia has played a perfect game. I agree stutters is a little non commital with his lynch targets but so is sonic. Case below, while I don't completely think sonic is the target to go for I am going to pressure you for answers as we haven't done that as much.
I am having trouble wording my thoughts so I will have to get back to the imcasey case(in response to you) in a minute. How can I and kush be so sure? Well there was a large section here but it turns out we shouldn't talk about the vig... I have saved what I wrote though to either support what I think is a true roleclaim or question one that seems fake.
I am actually getting more and more suspicious of sonic. You are trying to raise a lot of doubts about casey for a day 4 5 lynch and you have a null read on me. How on earth after all this do you be neutral on me.
On September 08 2012 21:49 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Still, from the last days I'm leaning townie on Kush, scum on Xatalos (although Kreb's point that it's a null read has some merit), currently I'm pretty neutral on Jacob and imcasey is a total null read. Jacob, could you address my post from yesterday? I don't understand the imcasey = sure townie argument. I don't have a lot of time atm so I won't throw out random team reads. I will make sure to be back later tonight though.
In this post you basically list three null reads. (you say leaning scum on xatalos but you leave it open with the krebs point) But I just don’t understand how I can be a neutral read, I am 93 posts in on this thread. Not saying post count is an indication of town but I would have to be the freaking genius of the world to pull something like this off and not slip. Also your town read (obvious town read on kush) thinks I am town, kreb thought I was town, I was opposed to a kville lynch (who was town) and was going at killing all game (who seems most likely scum in the eyes of kush and I and now xatalos). Either I am mafia that looked at the other mafia players and went ehh who cares about them I’ma play for town or I am amazing, the other option of course is that I am town.
You are being very vague. Also you have a habit of not voting for your scum reads. For example (as pointed out by stutters who seems against you and killing.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Alright, a couple of thoughts.
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
(As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I know you replied to this but it still stands that you voted for someone not your scum read. Stutters could be busing Killing time however his case was put up when I was the only one even kind of on him and even then I was doubting myself (at the time) also what you are doing is more bus style play. You are seeing there is a good argument and saying yeah I see your points. Maybe you are both bussing him.
I mainly just want answers (simmilar thing to was I was doing to killing a while back) as we need everything we can get.
I like xatalos more recent post. We must vote on strongest scum read. Killing or stutters basically. Imcasey we won't be able to consolidate on, while I think killing is a larger scum read we should look at stutters as well just incase. (but it would take a lot to convince me)
Also keep in mind that sonic fancies himself a semi pro poker player, so if he was mafia he would try to be tricky. I still have a town read on him though from just reading through his filter.
On September 08 2012 23:33 kushm4sta wrote: @sonic kreb was a vanilla townie it said so when he was killed. I think we should focus on 1 person. We have no certain mafia yet, so relying of associative cases, looking for the scumteam before the scum adds too much complexity, too many variables to our search.
I think kiLLing is the most scumlike person and the best lynch. Do people agree or not?
I'm not yet completely decided between KillingTime and Stutters695 (looks like an imcasey lynch isn't happening, so I'd narrow it down to these two currently). However, it looks like KillingTime is the general strongest scumread (especially by you and JacobStrangelove, who are the most active and townish posters around), so it would be easiest to consolidate every town vote on KillingTime instead of Stutters695. That doesn't mean we should just all vote for KillingTime and forget about it. There's still the small chance of him being town, and if that's the case, there are only two ways for us to win at this point:
A) KillingTime must start posting and convince everyone of his innocence B) we must pressure other players to find Mafia slips, holes in logic... something that would indicate an even better Mafia read than KillingTime at the moment
If KillingTime is in fact town, option A is our best bet. Option B isn't looking very easy to achieve, but it's better than just voting for KillingTime and hoping for the best. Mainly I'm thinking about pressuring imcasey and Stutters695 to post more and help us determine the strongest Mafia read.
imcasey and Stutters695, please return to the thread. What do you two think of lynching KillingTime? Are you on board? Why / why not?
KillingTime, unless something changes, you're going to be lynched. If you're actually town, it's crucial that you convince everyone of your own innocence. If you're Mafia, don't bother!
Sonic Death Monkey, are you on board with lynching KillingTime? Why / why not? In your latest post you were hesitant because lynching KillingTime would give "limited info", but please forget factors like that. Everything is decided with this lynch, so it has to hit Mafia. Besides, if we lynch KillingTime and he flips Mafia, it would give more info than with imcasey or Stutters695 flipping Mafia (at least KillingTime has been more active than imcasey or Stutters695...).
Something tells me Xatalos hit his weekend. I agree with pretty much everything he has said so far. However it is night so I will sleep. Will be back in about 12 hours?
to be lynched. If you're actually town, it's crucial that you convince everyone of your own innocence. If you're Mafia, don't bother!
Yes I agree, however I am currently trying to figure out how to do that. Mafia only needs 1 townie to vote against me in order to force mislynch me and win, which means is I need to convince all of town (so far my cases have failed to convince one person) or at least convince mafia that a bus is less risky than pushing for the win. I think stutters case against me is fair - but please whether you think what it actually proves is not that I am a mafia who knows who is town - but town who doesn't know who the Mafia is and isn't that good at scum hunting.
Unsurprisingly I think stutters is mafia and he is my best read)- he has made his case against me but if you look at things from my perspective he has actually contributed very little. Before that point he was high on several other people's suspicions and had contributed very little.
I think everyone agrees his day one play is awful - but going back I am amazed just how bad it was:
His schtick to start is that a low post count is not a sign of a mafia and that:
If I was a scum I wouldn't put myself in a position to be lynched by posting once or twice than bouncing for a day when you guys make it so easy to hide without committing to anything. All I'd have to do is post a list of everyone and sheep on townish people and say well he hasn't posted a lot so I'm not sure
(which is later exactly how he will accuse me of playing)
Then he switches and low post counts and bouncing for the day is exactly what scum would be doing.
why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here?
unless Cubu comes back and posts some content I think he's our best lynch today.He's provided nothing.
Then there is essentially nothing until my case, at which point he posts a case about me being non-committal and weak - Before this point he has added nothing to the game until he is accused of being mafia.
At this point he becomes hyper defensive and answers a lot of questions with what look like good answers - but if you are me at this point in the game and know he is almost certainly scum - they don't look that great to me they explain some of his reasoning as if he was a townie -so what- they don't seriously attempt to atone for his play d1 and I know that his "top 2" scum reads are both town and one of them (kville) he has almost no work to do on it because of how terrible his play was. So after I gave him an easy out he can re-enter the thread and go back to not contributing anything except super obvious stuff about kville and a meaningless conversation w the late appearing kville when most euro players have gone to bed.
It seems that apart from jacob, who has been onandoff me all game - all of you only started to be suspicious of me after stutters case. Even if you are 90% sure I am mafia and you want to lynch me - you should be demanding more from stutters as well and asking why you are following the lead of a player who gave town nothing until he felt prodded by me.
Again, I need to convince all of town of this if we are not to lose tonight…. My plea is when you are trying to judge between us try to see the game from my perspective as town. Stutters posting is confident and gives town nothing. My posting has been hesitant and trying to contribute.
If Stutters and I are both town then mafia won this game along time ago because unless we both have damascene conversions to each others innocence mafia can just put their three votes with his/mine and win. This is my best attempt at showing you stutters from my perspective… other than trying to answer any questions you have I don't know what else I can do. I think jacob is town and one of the most suspicious of me, so I am obviously particularly interested in convincing him, as with his vote mafia don't even need anyone else.
On September 09 2012 02:49 KillingTime wrote: Unsurprisingly I think stutters is mafia and he is my best read)- he has made his case against me but if you look at things from my perspective he has actually contributed very little. Before that point he was high on several other people's suspicions and had contributed very little.
I think everyone agrees his day one play is awful - but going back I am amazed just how bad it was:
His schtick to start is that a low post count is not a sign of a mafia and that:
If I was a scum I wouldn't put myself in a position to be lynched by posting once or twice than bouncing for a day when you guys make it so easy to hide without committing to anything. All I'd have to do is post a list of everyone and sheep on townish people and say well he hasn't posted a lot so I'm not sure
(which is later exactly how he will accuse me of playing)
Then he switches and low post counts and bouncing for the day is exactly what scum would be doing.
why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here?
unless Cubu comes back and posts some content I think he's our best lynch today.He's provided nothing.
Then there is essentially nothing until my case, at which point he posts a case about me being non-committal and weak - Before this point he has added nothing to the game until he is accused of being mafia.
At this point he becomes hyper defensive and answers a lot of questions with what look like good answers - but if you are me at this point in the game and know he is almost certainly scum - they don't look that great to me they explain some of his reasoning as if he was a townie -so what- they don't seriously attempt to atone for his play d1 and I know that his "top 2" scum reads are both town and one of them (kville) he has almost no work to do on it because of how terrible his play was. So after I gave him an easy out he can re-enter the thread and go back to not contributing anything except super obvious stuff about kville and a meaningless conversation w the late appearing kville when most euro players have gone to bed.
That's a good point about Stutters695's inconsistency. He started by claiming that Mafia wouldn't take the risk of hardcore lurking, but then proceeds to vote for both Cubu and kville based on their hardcore lurking... Weird holes in logic like that usually point to one direction: Mafia. Do you have anything to say about this, Stutters695?
I'm heavily considering lynching Stutters695 instead of KillingTime right now - although that would naturally require everyone to agree. What's also bothering me about Stutters695 is that even though he looks like a skilled player (constantly referencing metagames, guides, player histories etc.) he has basically only bandwagoned on Cubu and kville so far. He hasn't actually pushed the thread into any direction, only followed the flow and remained somewhat under the radar. He made a case against KillingTime but never committed to it in the least. I'd expect much, much more from a town Stutters695 after all those references to past games and such.
I'm going to sleep now. Hopefully Stutters695 has responded by tomorrow (that goes for imcasey and Sonic Death Monkey as well).
So the last 2 posts are by killing and xatalos. Both prime suspects. They both attack stutters, who is right now the safest target not including themselves. That seems pretty fishy to me.
Stutters does not even try to defend himself. He talks about the current game situation then proceeds to attack stutters. Then xatalos comes in and says now he suspects stutters and not killing.
@xatalos why don't you suspect killing now? Not why do you suspect stutters, but why don't you suspect killing? What part of his nonexistent defense convinced you?
On September 08 2012 21:49 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Still, from the last days I'm leaning townie on Kush, scum on Xatalos (although Kreb's point that it's a null read has some merit), currently I'm pretty neutral on Jacob and imcasey is a total null read. Jacob, could you address my post from yesterday? I don't understand the imcasey = sure townie argument. I don't have a lot of time atm so I won't throw out random team reads. I will make sure to be back later tonight though.
In this post you basically list three null reads. (you say leaning scum on xatalos but you leave it open with the krebs point) But I just don’t understand how I can be a neutral read, I am 93 posts in on this thread. Not saying post count is an indication of town but I would have to be the freaking genius of the world to pull something like this off and not slip. Also your town read (obvious town read on kush) thinks I am town, kreb thought I was town, I was opposed to a kville lynch (who was town) and was going at killing all game (who seems most likely scum in the eyes of kush and I and now xatalos). Either I am mafia that looked at the other mafia players and went ehh who cares about them I’ma play for town or I am amazing, the other option of course is that I am town.
Yeah, that post wasn't very clear. You could probably tell I was throwing out a lot of half finished thoughts earlier today. I got some time to clarify now though. The first paragraph (the one you didn't quote) was meant to explain the latest developments of my reads. That is, Stutters' answers to my questions gave him a decent amount of town points in my mind. The fact that I think that the Stutter vs Killing feud is unlikely to be fabricated automatically means this makes me more suspicious of Killing.
The second paragraph on the other hand (the one you quoted), was meant as a brief summary of my reads from earlier, that's why it opens with "from the last days". That's reads I haven't found a reason to change on d3. I've explained my reasoning on my Kush read so many times before, I don't think I need to do it again. Xatalos has been one of my long time suspects, but the post you quoted was made before he started making productive contributions on d3. Still haven't read those posts, will go back and do that as soon as I can. My read on imcasey is weak, he hasn't posted a lot at all. That's why I was asking questions about your read, hoping to start a discussion, but I still don't think you've responded (I might be wrong, if you've posted on d3 I might've missed it). My reasoning for why I'm not sold on your imcasey = sure townie is clearly spelled out though, the ball's on your court.
You raise an interesting question, my take on you. That hasn't been explained. I went after you on d2 after your filter coming back very non-committal. I never really had you as a prime suspect but at that point we needed to put some heat back on active posters after a d1 of lurker hunting. Anyway, in the end you gave quite satisfactory answers and your long-ass n2 post had some solid analysis. Also, and like you said, you've made a lot of post and they've been long. In my experience spazzy scum players tends not to make too many long-winded posts. If they do, you'll usually be able to find a good case looking through their posts.
Now to why I don't fully trust you. Early game you were very indecisive. The only case you had was the Killer case, but even that you didn't fully commit to. Now you claim imcasey is 99% townie and make confident statements about Killing, Stutters, drazak and vig reads. When I question some of those reads, you don't even respond. Why so confident now and why don't you answer those questions? It seems to fit scum strategy very well not to point too many fingers early game, just to push your agenda late game.
On September 08 2012 23:57 JacobStrangelove wrote:
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Alright, a couple of thoughts.
@Sonic Death Monkey You also say
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
(As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I know you replied to this but it still stands that you voted for someone not your scum read. Stutters could be busing Killing time however his case was put up when I was the only one even kind of on him and even then I was doubting myself (at the time) also what you are doing is more bus style play. You are seeing there is a good argument and saying yeah I see your points. Maybe you are both bussing him.
I mainly just want answers (simmilar thing to was I was doing to killing a while back) as we need everything we can get.
I didn't vote against my scum read. My #1 scum read was Stutters and I voted for him. The discussion was about my ranking of #3 and #4 picks. Kind of a hypothetical discussion and I still think my reasons behind it is solid.
On September 09 2012 01:28 Xatalos wrote: Sonic Death Monkey, are you on board with lynching KillingTime? Why / why not? In your latest post you were hesitant because lynching KillingTime would give "limited info", but please forget factors like that. Everything is decided with this lynch, so it has to hit Mafia. Besides, if we lynch KillingTime and he flips Mafia, it would give more info than with imcasey or Stutters695 flipping Mafia (at least KillingTime has been more active than imcasey or Stutters695...).
Not really. We don't win the game if we lynch a maffia d3. It only makes sense we care about whether we lose on d3 or d4 and I sure don't. This means that information is important, but quite hard to obtain without some analytical work (it sucks thrawn or Kreb is around, I don't have the time this weekend). For this reason I could get behind the idea of lynching the most like scum, my guess is usually it's best anyway. I guess where we differ is that I consider you one of the lynching candidates.
On September 08 2012 23:31 Xatalos wrote: When considering today's lynch, I'm going to just flat-out ignore kushm4sta, JacobStrangelove and Sonic Death Monkey as lynch candidates. You three have been the most active and contributive posters so far, which also makes you the most likely townies. I'm not saying there can't be Mafia among you, but if we somehow managed to get 4 votes on one of you, the chance of hitting Mafia wouldn't be good. Certainly one of you flipping Mafia would make it much easier to find the remaining two Mafia, but as I just explained, we can't risk an immediate loss for future benefits.
If you really trust those three players (you're basically saying you're willing to risk the outcome of the game trusting us) and all of us are leaning towards Killing, why do you try to change the lynch to Stutters? What you're saying about us consolidating the votes is very true. I'm going to look primarily to Kush when it comes to the d3 lynch, secondarily to Jacob. If someone else is behind the decision of the voting candidate, you being one clear example, I'm going to be very sceptical.
Also, in your opinion Stutters, Killing and imcasey are likely scum. Do you have any thoughts about the Stutters vs Killing feud? It came at a very weird timing for it to be manufactured. The only heat Killing was taking at that point was from Jacob, and even he was backing down.
Sorry guys I've been out of town. Posting from my phone again since I have a free moment. I'm be back in full.tomorrow around 5 est. Anyway I'm the one shot big who took the terrible shot on Drazak. It was either mylo or lylo so I figured shooting to confirm myself and Drazak most recent posts before the end of night made me feel like he was the best shot.
I'll try to check in before then but I'm pretty busy.
The shot claim is in my post two before this (can't quote because I'm on my phone. You'll notice how I have sentences that are like this "word.2ndword" if you look at the post the first letter of each word before the . It spells I shot then the next time it occurs is Drazak. The ones after that were just, me trying to sell it (my phone does do this though which is where I got the idea)
loll Stutters is vig... wtf I guess I'm wrong about eveything... If it's not obvious, real vig should counterclaim if it's not stutters so 2 separate things real quick...
1 Where the fuck are you iamcasey?? He said he is actively looking at the thread just doesn't feel the need to post anything because it would be redundant. Can you post anyway? I don't care if you have nothing to add. It helps us read you. I really thought he was town, but as soon as the heat is off him he starts being completely afk. Even more afk than normal.
My entire town read on him is pretty much based on how WeeTee quit really early and I wouldn't expect that from mafia. Admittedly not the most rock solid reasoning but it made sense to me.
2 As far as I'm concerned at this point, the question is not are mafia busing someone, but rather who is busing who. Think about it. It would be very stupid for mafia to not bus each other at this point and it would make it very easy to figure out who was mafia. If i were mafia I would be busing the fuck out of killing right now.
If you aren't going to be able to be here for 9 pm tomorrow (fuck yall american time) please say how close to lynch time you will be able to be here so we know how late we can get a bandwagon going. ofc that's just in case we decide to change our mind about killing. All I'm going to be doing at work is reading through filters on my phone, but for now ##vote killingtime
Wow stutters is vig? Hurm... If he is this puts killing and xatalos in really bad light. Also If he is it's basicly a show down with imcasey and sonic. Due to imcasey apparently not being vig (I will post my case that made me thing he was in a minute) This does make me think twice about the situation.
I will try and answer all of sonics posts sometime tonight. It's obvious I am not a lynch target today so when I get the time I will do that. Also while xatalos thing about needing to push the most scum person is true that can also be malipulated in mafias favour. Will continue reading.
On September 09 2012 06:54 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Now to why I don't fully trust you. Early game you were very indecisive. The only case you had was the Killer case, but even that you didn't fully commit to. Now you claim imcasey is 99% townie and make confident statements about Killing, Stutters, drazak and vig reads. When I question some of those reads, you don't even respond. Why so confident now and why don't you answer those questions? It seems to fit scum strategy very well not to point too many fingers early game, just to push your agenda late game.
Early game I was indecisive. Yes I was... while I hate saying this but it is my first game. I would obviously get more and more confident as I go while wrong some of the time we need to be decisive at this point in the game and it is getting easier and easier to see the patterns. Also why would I have been so confident of drazak as scum? I would have waited for now to be confident and try to separate the drazak lynch from myself.
I am going to respond to the imcasey read in a while (need to get thoughts together in the light of stutters as most likely vig (he has breadcrumb and I doubt we are getting a counter claim)
I am going to post what I wrote about who I thought was vig because I promised I would but it seems kinda pointless now. I would also like to note I completely forgot stutters existed in this case so that is where I was wrong.
How can I and kush be so sure? Well we both think it is imcasey. Well for one I know it isn't me. This is a good start. I have such a strong town read on kush and he claims to not be it (seemed to not be it before he claimed requested it on someone else (kville before)) also xatalos wanted vig to kill kville. Killing is probably mafia and that leaves you and casey.
You wouldn't have taken the shot. For one you didn't have the time to think about it and it doesn't seem like something you would do so I surmised it was casey.
Turns out I completely missed the fact stutters was in the game, I feel so stupid. (the vig thing made everyone stupid though lets be honest...)
But can you re-list the questions you had for me. (about anyone else I have your casey list) Also I was going to bring you up on something that I thought you didn't reply to (turns out I forgot to include it -_-) but I will ask you now.
If stutters went too hard at killing to be a bus and he is almost positive town now, then doesn't your style seem rather bus like. For example the stutters killing was to... aggressive to be a bus however you say "good points" and you passively agree about killing time. You seem to passively agree about xatalos. You are only actively going at imcasey. It is really unlikely that you and imcasey are a scum team so my question is are you scum passively busing your two scum mates and betting because of that you can get a lynch on imcasey? Honestly at this point I have said it before and I will say it again. The game seems to be down to is imcasey scum or sonic.
I am sure you can agree one of them must be town. (there is a slight chance xatalos is town but we can deal with this tomorrow game time) This is why the casey read is so important and I need to start working on that when I am not tired. I will probably need a massive post on this which is why I am only popping in at the moment when I am tired. (woke up early)
lol stutters claiming vig? Assuming there is no counter claim that messes up my mafia team.
This is all probably academic though as I still have no idea how I am meant to defend myself at this point against the case that I was "too indecisive and safe" in my play earlier to your satisfaction. As I said - I was quite indecisive, because I was town and didn't know who was mafia!
I think it is very unlikely that I'll get jacob & kush to vote against me and assuming one of them is not mafia that is game. I will try and stay up as close as possible to the deadline and answer any questions you have out of native optimism that we might not have lost... If the voting is not close I will probably vote for kush symbolically because I feel like he has maybe played a great mafia game. If there is a chance of saving me I'll vote for stutters (if there is a counter claim) or imcasey who is my second choice as mafia... his posts d2 were not great scum-hunting - they pointed out inconsistencies in people's play - but I don't think they were inconsistencies that actually made sense from the perspective of finding mafia. I think he was just doing the minimum to stay alive and add some confusion to the thread.
If what you say is true and I doubt it but I will check. Then it would be a Kush/sonic/imcasey mafia team. With stutters vig I town and you town and xatolas town. I assume.
I think it is possibly a xatalos killing sonic team. But need to research it. If kush is mafia he probably deserves to win. However, if you and stutters are both town then the game is probably lost. I really want to see what stutters thinks because he is pretty much confirmed town. If I can prove imcasey innoccent then I would be fine voting for sonic but I would have to see what stutters thinks. (also sonic is safe with him being in both mafia teams if imcasey is town) Wait looking back that makes no sence though. If imcasey is innocent then he can't be in the scum team. Hmm...
What do you think stutters, I am fairly sure about what I think about killing being scum however it would be good to hear a revised opinion.
Also killing what was your scum team before the vig call and what do you think it is now.
Sonic is in both scum team variations. I actually think a lynch on him would be good. It's a can't miss scenario. Think about it. Killing has been sure on his lynchs in a way. While not badwagoning or voting people he doesn't think is scum. While I am still super suspicious of him because he has gone for people the crowd hasn’t and as I see it we can’t miss with a sonic lynch... maybe I am just doubting myself but look at it that way. can we miss with a sonic lynch? No what scum team could there be without sonic? killing xatalos and imcasey. Kush thinks imcasey is townish at least so do I. (like I said reasonings coming later)
What do you guys think killing, stutters kush, and xatalos. Sonic and imcasey feel free to chip in as well.
Prior to the vig call my scum team was stutters & two of three of kush, imcasey & xatalos....
But a stutters vig call (which I am inclined to believe because the breadcrumb is good and would make no sense for a mafia action as it would require guessing correctly both the target and that the vig was going to shoot) throws everything off. Since I said I would vote kush symbolically I have been thinking abit more about what the vig claim means.
I don't think you are scum & so with me, you and stutters that leaves 4 players: sonic/imcasey/xatalos/kush. Rereading Sonics filter from the perspective of stutters being a confirmed townie makes me put in him that group - while I thought stutters was mafia his consistent attacks on stutters and partial defence of me made him seem town to me - but if stutters is also town I don't know his filter is very good at all from a town perspective
At the moment I am not sure which 3 are the mafia and which is the townie - but in a sense that does not matter tonight because I doubt I can convince all of town to vote for Kush/Sonic tonight (although if someone can...)
I would like to hear from you & stutters who you think is a better lynch out of Xatalos and imcasey. I think imcasey is better because Xatalos's recent posts this weekend have been quite balanced and they read to me like someone who doesn't know who the scum is trying to work it out - rather than scum trying to ensure that the lynch on me (which still looks pretty likley to happen) goes ahead.
Woah I may have hit something, drazak was town right? Drazak was against kush but who was with and against him? I was undecided (although mostly against to my shame) because why would mafia hit such a high profile town (imo at the time) but he seemed scummy in motivation. However now we know he is town.... lets look at sonics, imcasey(if there is anything) xatalos and killings filters about it.
Sonic was thinking drazaks case was bad and was saying kush was omgus-ing. Drazak was town.
On September 07 2012 18:29 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Starting a wagon d1: Usually gives you too much attention (this game is a case in point) Pursuing that townie Cubu: I think at a 4-2 score where no other wagons had any momentum, he still aggressively pursued Cubu. Going after thrawn: Makes no sense to attack the most trusted townie (those were the accusations right? I still need to go back and reread this part)
All his actions will give him a ton of attention, that’s not very scummy at all.
I’ve been reading through the arguments against Kush but didn’t focus too much on it yesterday because I think it makes more sense to discuss it now. My reaction to reading through the exchange between Kush and drazark was that Kush went into a pretty heavy OMGUS-mode (wrt to those 4 posts he made in response). Is this what you find to be scummy, drazark? Or is there more to it that I have missed? Could you please condense your argument to what you believe to be the most valid points?
Also xatalos was a huge defender of kreb and drazak both town. Kush has had a 100% miss rate (killings filter) Kreb said role claim sonic didn’t say to role claim would only help town (exception to a cop) if vig claimed and it did help.
Sonic, Kush seems to be in cohorts. I know this might seem a bit much considering how strong I was on killing until recently.
But this is after lynch theoretical. However I think with sonic being in both of my mafia groups I would be stupid not to think we should lynch him. While I thought he could be passive defending killing and xatalos he could also be not trying to draw attention to himself so late in the game.
Honestly I would go sonic, out of xatalos and imcasey. no seriously I want to know what stutters thinks though I will answer your question seriously in a minute though.
If we lynched imcasey or xatalos it would be a 50/50 split (see who I think the scum teams would be) however sonic is in both. While the game would almost just end either way with a imcasey xatalos lynch I would push for the sonic lynch. He is my strongest scum read. This doesn't mean I have dropped my read on killing time but it is safer and more sure to lynch sonic.
Just a reminder about kushs post right after the mafia and vig kill.
On September 08 2012 10:35 kushm4sta wrote: Ok so according to kreb's logic post, either one of the mafia feuds was fake, or jacob or sonic or me are mafia. 4 town 3 mafia. That means there are a lot of mafia among us -.-
If i had to guess at this point I would say xatalos, stutters and killingtime, and the fued between stutters and killing was manufactured. Also I think I might have to read sonic's poster closer. Everyone always just assumed he was town because his posts are consistently good though. But maybe that consistency come from a scumlike carefulness. We can still win but if we lynch wrong 1 day we lose. I'm pretty sure that's how it worked out. Also I assume we have a vig and they killed drazak. No idea why they didn't kill a lurker n1 though...
Stutters/killing isn’t manufactured. Stutters is vig...
Ok so if you are town and you are thinking what on earth just happened. If you think killing is scum notice killing pushed the more uncertain lynch until I forced the more certain lynch. He was pushing for xatalos/imcasey. Which in my book is 50/50 however due to the way scum teams would appear to work sonic is in both.
So if he is scum he is scum with sonic and I am lynching the more certain one. If you don’t think killing is scum then well... there shouldn’t be much problem. (If there is bring it up) I know I am posting a huge amount just now but I want to get this right.
On September 09 2012 09:52 Stutters695 wrote: Sorry guys I've been out of town. Posting from my phone again since I have a free moment. I'm be back in full.tomorrow around 5 est. Anyway I'm the one shot big who took the terrible shot on Drazak. It was either mylo or lylo so I figured shooting to confirm myself and Drazak most recent posts before the end of night made me feel like he was the best shot.
I'll try to check in before then but I'm pretty busy.
The shot claim is in my post two before this (can't quote because I'm on my phone. You'll notice how I have sentences that are like this "word.2ndword" if you look at the post the first letter of each word before the . It spells I shot then the next time it occurs is Drazak. The ones after that were just, me trying to sell it (my phone does do this though which is where I got the idea)
I guess everyone agrees that Stutters695 is confirmed town now. That breadcrumb is practically impossible to fake - and he wouldn't even gain almost anything by fakeclaiming at this point, especially compared to the risks.
On September 09 2012 06:18 kushm4sta wrote: So the last 2 posts are by killing and xatalos. Both prime suspects. They both attack stutters, who is right now the safest target not including themselves. That seems pretty fishy to me.
Stutters does not even try to defend himself. He talks about the current game situation then proceeds to attack stutters. Then xatalos comes in and says now he suspects stutters and not killing.
@xatalos why don't you suspect killing now? Not why do you suspect stutters, but why don't you suspect killing? What part of his nonexistent defense convinced you?
My suspicions against Stutters695 are obviously obsolete now. However, there are some things in KillingTime's latest posts that make me unsure if he actually is such a strong Mafia read... At least compared to how Stutters695 looked like before his Vigi claim. KillingTime's response to being accused so heavily wasn't really defensive or scared at all, more like honestly trying to help the thread forward. That's the feeling I got from it, anyway... He didn't seem afraid of being lynched at all, but instead trying to avoid the town's loss. Then there's this he posted after Stutters695's Vigi claim:
On September 09 2012 17:11 KillingTime wrote: Xatalos's recent posts this weekend have been quite balanced and they read to me like someone who doesn't know who the scum is trying to work it out - rather than scum trying to ensure that the lynch on me (which still looks pretty likley to happen) goes ahead.
What motivation would scum KillingTime have to post something like this? Maybe I'm biased, but unless we are both Mafia (which I know not to be true), it's dangerous to limit your options by giving town reads at this stage.
On September 09 2012 16:45 JacobStrangelove wrote: Sonic is in both scum team variations. I actually think a lynch on him would be good. It's a can't miss scenario. Think about it. Killing has been sure on his lynchs in a way. While not badwagoning or voting people he doesn't think is scum. While I am still super suspicious of him because he has gone for people the crowd hasn’t and as I see it we can’t miss with a sonic lynch... maybe I am just doubting myself but look at it that way. can we miss with a sonic lynch? No what scum team could there be without sonic? killing xatalos and imcasey. Kush thinks imcasey is townish at least so do I. (like I said reasonings coming later)
What do you guys think killing, stutters kush, and xatalos. Sonic and imcasey feel free to chip in as well.
I don't really like complicated connection theories. There's no telling what Mafia might think or do, so it all comes down to WIFOM. One big mistake in my previous game as town was to rely on theories about possible Mafia teams... It's much, much harder to figure out a whole Mafia team than to figure out a single Mafia player. Once one Mafia has been found, it's a good time to start thinking about connections, but not now. Mafia could have planned everything to look like they're not connected at all or just partly connected - there's no end to the WIFOM! Lynching someone should be based on their own filter (at least until no other Mafia have been found), not somene else's filter.
With that said, I think KillingTime and imcasey are the only decent lynch candidates we have for today. Sonic Death Monkey has been very active and nothing about him screams Mafia to me. Lynching him because of a WIFOMy connection theory just feels stupid, and I'm sure we'd be facepalming hard if he flipped town. It doesn't look like lynching imcasey would gather enough support, so I have to go with KillingTime.
##Vote KillingTime
I'm returning to the military today, so I can't be online at the deadline. However, I should still be online for some hours at least. I think looking through imcasey's and Sonic Death Monkey's filters would be the best use of our of time at the moment.
Jacob wtf pull yourself together. Sonic aint getting lynched tonight. If he is one of the mafia too bad we will have to find another. Killingtime is getting lynched tonight. That's the bandwagon and there is no deviating from it. If 1 town doesn't vote for killing then mafia will switch their vote and we lose. Killing is the only bandwagon, and if you are town and not voting for him we lose. What is wrong with the killing, xatalos, sonic team? I think it's a plausible team and I will vote for them in that order right now. Sonic's filter does not seem scum to me, but there's no one else who it can be. And I dont trust poker players.
Let me add something. At this point you should not be saying "hmmm actually killing doesn't look that bad, I'm goign to vote for sonic." That is stupid because we need the power of the bandwagon to win this game. Town needs to be unanimous. What you can do is come up with a case or argument designed to convince everyone to shift the bandwagon to someone else. All you should be concerned about right now is where the bandwagon is going, not your individual suspicions.
Whoa.... did kush just massively slip or is he just so... look. I think killing is possibly mafia. But you just told me there shall be no deviation from the bandwagon. You are telling me we instantly lose if I don’t vote for him and I shouldn’t be concerned about who I think mafia is I should be concerned about who the bandwagon is on. What the chainsaw are you on about?
Look if town doesn't get the sonic vote guess what happens. Killing is lynched, if you think he is mafia then it should't be a problem.
To xatolas. It's not entirely based on WIFOM, although I see you have a point. However to say something about killing being less suspicious than stutters before the vig call then after that instantly makes him scum is odd.
Ok my two largest scum reads right now are Sonic and Xatalos I have temp dropped killing to a lower priority. But seeing that Sonic and Xatalos are both voting killing I think I have worked it all out.
Negative elimination I think I am town kush obviously thinks I am town and he thinks I am on the wrong track but hear me out. Stutters is town. Sonic and xatalos are both voting killing. I think kush is town. My two top scum reads are voting killing. I’m casey, I thought he was town but my read was based off knowing WeeTee. Not as strong as I thought.
Look I have been going for killing all game... I should know how strong the killing case was if you truly think I am town think about this.The case is entirely based on "He isn’t confident and circumstantial stuff." I thought it was strong because I went into OMGUS mode. I just saw the light at the end of the tunnel I made the connections I just need your support. No offence but you do have a 100% miss rate. Trust me I implore you. I thought we were safe today but we are not. Killing is not this safe mafia lynch like you think. Sorry for getting hyped up but we have this I just need to convice you somehow.
@jacob I don't think you are understanding the new mechanics of this game. everyone NEEDS to vote for the same person or mafia changes their vote at the last second and we lose. so either you vote for killing or you convince everyone else to vote for someone else.
On September 09 2012 20:40 JacobStrangelove wrote: Everyone was happy voting killing. Is this not strange to you kush....
No because as I said before it only makes sense for scum to bus one of their own at this point. Think about this scenario... We lynch killing and he flips red. We know that everyone who didn't vote for killing is scum, because if any town voted for someone else, mafia would have all vote changed and town would have lost.
I think killing is town, I think stutters is town I think you are town and I think I am town. I will not vote for someone I think is town. This might seems strange. We were talking about the bus so much though. Don't you think they might go.. you know what lets not bus and mess with there heads. They only need one misslynch. They can pull this kind of stuff.
Look I almost have to out right refuse a lynch on killing. You know I am town. If I don't lynch vote killing according to you we lose so you need to vote sonic I am almost making it our only option for winning.
This probably seems strange to you considering everything that has happened but think for one minute if killing is town. Xatalos/Sonic are voting for him. These are now my top two scum reads. I can't believe I have been this stupid all game. Sorry if I am getting frustrated I just need to make you see this. The imcasey is town was a weak case. Why do you think I had so much trouble explaining my town read on him. Your read on him is related to my read (im part) and I think my read is actually messed up. In sonic pretending to bus imcasey I realised imcasey is scum. However not his intention I worked everything else out.
@Jacob I do trust you as town and I am more certain of that than anything else in this game. But I think you are being really stupid about how you are going about this. I am not opposed to a different bandwagon, but you need to say who we are bandwagoning and see if you can convince everyone to bandwagon with you.
Say who you want to bandwagon andsayit quick because we need all 4 town to vote for this person. And where is iamcasey seriouslty. Maybe its a bad idea to bandwagon him because he is gonna get modkilled soon maybe.
I am trying to convince you. I am sure stutters will also go on sonic. For one he has to the two people that I am sure he knows are town are on sonic and we will lose otherwise. Mafia can last minute switch like I said.
I'll have to leave soon, but I have to comment on one matter. Stutters695 said he'd be able to post at 5 EST. Since he's the only confirmed town at the moment, he basically has the final word. I'm not that good with timezones, so I don't know how close to the deadline that is, but I can't almost certainly be online when he decides to vote. With that in mind, he has been most suspicious of KillingTime, so I'd say his vote will be KillingTime. I can't take the risk of voting for Sonic Death Monkey now in this situation - and more importanly, Jacob's theory is just too WIFOM so far. I don't see why we should throw away player analysis and rely on team combination theories before we even know the identity of one Mafia for certain.
You are telling us what sutters will vote, He hasn't read the thread since he has been gone. Look... if killing was mafia and I don't think so. Sonic as least has a 2 in 3(3 in 4) chance of being mafia. While I am now practicly 100% sure he is mafia jsut going with the maths.... My theory may be WIFOM partly but you are in that group so of course you would argue against me.
@Xatalos I will vote for sonic, Jacob will vote for sonic, obviously stutters is going to join our bandwagon. If you are town vote for sonic. No he's not my strongest read, but I at this point we don't have a choice because without consensus we autolose.
ok, I got back about 10 minutes ago and started writing a "don't trust me, but trust jacob" post. But that is unnecessary now (I will paste in what I wrote if jacob/kush/stutters want though) but for me, this game is over - kush is town, jacob is town, stutters is town & I am town.
If Kush is mafia his performance over the last page (and most of the game tbh) has been incredible.. I don't think he is - looking at the difference between Xatalos and Kush over the last page it is clear from my perspective who is town and who is risking a limp into d3...
So be it then. I won't be online for quite some time now, but I hope that the game still continues once I get back to the thread. I'm going to facepalm hard if Sonic Death Monkey flips town and we lynched him just because of a WIFOMy theory.
Oh finally, I would have stayed up the entire night and morning trying to convince you.
But just to clarify it's not just WIFOM I went through why the killings case was unstable, I was talking about strange things sonic has been doing. (although I messed the the sonic kush in cohorts thing ages back) Kush is just far to town for that. However with killing as a town read my top two scum reads were both voting for killing time. I realised my imcasey case was in shambles(about him being town he is now mafia) as well as my killings case.(killing is now town) I am not happy with myself after failing this bad early but I am glad it's turned around now.
yeah I agree I think the game is decided. I have a night post ready for all the possible things mafia could do to try and win but reasons for why it won't work and what to do if I die.
(all the nk possibilitys)
Which I will post a a few minutes before the deadline.
Well we can discuss the killing or imcasey thing. But if sonic flips town I will never play another mafia game in my life. Although if I went with the killing lynch over the sonic lynch against my judgment and he flipped town I would kill myself. But lets be honest if sonic flips mafia that puts a better light on killing than it does on imcasey. However this can be a night discussion as I actually need to sleep to wake up for the lynch.
Holy shit, I'm busy one weekend and the thread explodes. Can someone pleeease explain the case against me because I'm short on time. All I saw was Jacob saying I was in both his teams so I'm now a sure lynch. We were in a really bad spot but losing the game in this way would really put an exlamation mark on our performance. I will be back to respond but I feel the time is running out. Jesus this is frustrating.
I'm still not asleep *sigh* But if that is all you saw you missed almost everything. It was to do with the all to happy to lynch killing thing as well as the fact I saw the killing case become non existent. Not only that I couldn't reply to the case for imcasey being town several things you said and aligments I noticed the slip by xatalos regarding killing and the thing he said about stutters and multiple other things.
It's all in the thread, to bring you up to speed I used my power as confirmed town and the arguments I presented to convince kush and almost force the vote on you. Also xatalos and you can't both be town and xatalos was convinced that you were town. To me it looks like you went all in on this killing lynch and then when you were caught out xatalos gave himself away completely by trying to save you. If he was mafia and you town he wouldn't care if you were lynched. He would prefer it. The only reason he would care is if they bet on you being called town and the lynch on killing. With this backfiring he is also implicated.
Another thing to note, if killing was mafia then wouldn't xatalos have tried to save him at least a little. he wouldn't be able to save imcasey infact you both (if I recall correctly) were going at imcasey because you were safe in the fact killing was set to be lynched.
Do I agree with or even understand Jacobs case? No. But we needed consensus so rather than trying to convince him otherwise by making a case is my cell phone I just went with it lol
On September 10 2012 01:34 JacobStrangelove wrote: I'm still not asleep *sigh* But if that is all you saw you missed almost everything. It was to do with the all to happy to lynch killing thing as well as the fact I saw the killing case become non existent. Not only that I couldn't reply to the case for imcasey being town several things you said and aligments I noticed the slip by xatalos regarding killing and the thing he said about stutters and multiple other things.
It's all in the thread, to bring you up to speed I used my power as confirmed town and the arguments I presented to convince kush and almost force the vote on you. Also xatalos and you can't both be town and xatalos was convinced that you were town. To me it looks like you went all in on this killing lynch and then when you were caught out xatalos gave himself away completely by trying to save you. If he was mafia and you town he wouldn't care if you were lynched. He would prefer it. The only reason he would care is if they bet on you being called town and the lynch on killing. With this backfiring he is also implicated.
Another thing to note, if killing was mafia then wouldn't xatalos have tried to save him at least a little. he wouldn't be able to save imcasey infact you both (if I recall correctly) were going at imcasey because you were safe in the fact killing was set to be lynched.
I'm not sure if you're town or not, but with all those conflicting theories you've thrown out today I've hard a hard time seeing that done by a scum. If you ARE scum, very well played. Skimming through the thread most things you've said about me makes it seem you've barely even read it.
On September 09 2012 13:58 JacobStrangelove wrote: If stutters went too hard at killing to be a bus and he is almost positive town now, then doesn't your style seem rather bus like. For example the stutters killing was to... aggressive to be a bus however you say "good points" and you passively agree about killing time. You seem to passively agree about xatalos. You are only actively going at imcasey. It is really unlikely that you and imcasey are a scum team so my question is are you scum passively busing your two scum mates and betting because of that you can get a lynch on imcasey? Honestly at this point I have said it before and I will say it again. The game seems to be down to is imcasey scum or sonic.
That's not what I said at all, I was talking about the weird timing:
On September 09 2012 08:16 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Also, in your opinion Stutters, Killing and imcasey are likely scum. Do you have any thoughts about the Stutters vs Killing feud? It came at a very weird timing for it to be manufactured. The only heat Killing was taking at that point was from Jacob, and even he was backing down.
On September 09 2012 21:54 JacobStrangelove wrote: This probably seems strange to you considering everything that has happened but think for one minute if killing is town. Xatalos/Sonic are voting for him. These are now my top two scum reads. I can't believe I have been this stupid all game. Sorry if I am getting frustrated I just need to make you see this. The imcasey is town was a weak case. Why do you think I had so much trouble explaining my town read on him. Your read on him is related to my read (im part) and I think my read is actually messed up. In sonic pretending to bus imcasey I realised imcasey is scum. However not his intention I worked everything else out.
This is what I've been arguing all along (there's no "bussing", I've said your case is weak). Now you agree I'm right, and that makes me scum? Seriously, what's happening?
On September 09 2012 21:54 JacobStrangelove wrote: This probably seems strange to you considering everything that has happened but think for one minute if killing is town. Xatalos/Sonic are voting for him.
I haven't voted for him. I've even been the one to suggest we need to look into others as well. I will vote for him now though.
On September 10 2012 02:50 kushm4sta wrote: Do I agree with or even understand Jacobs case? No. But we needed consensus so rather than trying to convince him otherwise by making a case is my cell phone I just went with it lol
I'm afraid the reason you don't get it is because it makes no sense at all. At this point it really seems like it will put a quite an awesome exlamation mark on our abysmal performance in this game though. Wow, maffia games can be really freakin' frustrating.
On September 10 2012 02:50 kushm4sta wrote: Do I agree with or even understand Jacobs case? No. But we needed consensus so rather than trying to convince him otherwise by making a case is my cell phone I just went with it lol
I'm afraid the reason you don't get it is because it makes no sense at all. At this point it really seems like it will put a quite an awesome exlamation mark on our abysmal performance in this game though. Wow, maffia games can be really freakin' frustrating.
Sonic if you are town which I think you are I'm sorry because there is no stopping the bandwagon of fail that is about to kill you in a few hours. It's not our fault as much as the town lurkers' fault. kville, drazak, weetee, iamcasey, cubu this is all your fault...you were bad town and you helped mafia immensely. Right now I'm liking xatalos iamcasey killing scumteam. I regret not pushing Jacob to bandwagon one of those guys... At least xatalos because its supr obvious he is scum.
I am willing to switch the bandwagon to xatalos if we can get everyone on board but I know its too late probably
Sorry for being afk, My grandfather got ill and had to go to the hospital, thats why iv been afk,. Sorry for the problems it caused, but honestly my thoughts were all other places. Now i need some good hours of sleep, il be back later today and contribute.
Ok while it should be obvious I will prepare my case because as I see it there is only one way mafia has a chance of winning. I will go though what that way is. I will go though why xatalos is mafia and etc... and I will have a short section regarding the night kill. I might post it tonight or I might post it just before the dead line. If I do post it tonight I will leave out the night kill stuff till the deadline.
@jacob Yup the remaining town is awaiting your orders. We still have to guess the next mafia right, though, or mafia will win. I think it's between xatalos and killing with a high probability of xatalos.
Wow... I was expecting to open my phone and read the endgame post, but it looks like we even got a double kill. And the game is basically finished. At least if I could prove my alignment :/
If we ignore the end result, I still think it was stupid and a huge risk to lynch Sonic Death Monkey. The case against him was based entirely on connection theories and WIFOM, with little (if any) basis in filter analysis. Compared to KillingTime, Sonic Death Monkey's filter looked nowhere near as suspicious. Looks like at least kushm4sta agreed with my assessment:
On September 10 2012 02:50 kushm4sta wrote: Do I agree with or even understand Jacobs case? No. But we needed consensus so rather than trying to convince him otherwise by making a case is my cell phone I just went with it lol
For some reason, though, it looks like my questioning of Jacob's play turned me into the top suspect. To that I have to ask: didn't kushm4sta have very similar doubts? And why wouldn't I have gladly bussed Sonic Death Monkey to gain town cred as Mafia? And why would I have then been pushing WeeTee/imcasey for so long? If you look at my posts yesterday, you see that I'm struggling with my reads and trying to find the best solution. KillingTime, on the other hand, doesn't apparently care about who gets lynched in the least.
It must have been unfortunate that the bandwagon formed on Sonic Death Monkey, but his exceedingly eager jump on Sonic Death Monkey could be a clever plot to gain some nice town cred. I, on the other hand, didn't even stop to think about town cred, but instead openly shared my doubts. It was clear at that point that there was no turning around the bandwagon, so I'd be a pretty bad Mafia to all-in and risk everything for just a bit faster victory.
Stutters695 is confirmed town, and kushm4sta and JacobStrangelove would have to be godly players to actually be Mafia. That leaves only KillingTime. I'm not sure what more I can do to affect the outcome, and I'm severely short ontime as well, but I'll try to answer any additional questions or accusations when I can.
Should I die tonight(pretty much guaranteed to be Jacob or myself) I feel you guys should take Jacob as essentially confirmed town unless something major pops up.
Some people were saying that if Jacob was scum he would have to be godly. This isn't the case. If Jacob is scum and did this it was an incredibly stupid move on his part because a Killing lynch would have resulted in a victory for Scum with this NK. He would know that Imcasey wasn't there/not posting in the QT and would get modkilled. They could also use simple math to figure out that there is no reason to bus another scum because at 4/3 we mislynch and imcasey gets modkilled its at 3/2. Nightkill still seals the game.
There is no logical reason for a bus in this scenario.
Because this is probably my last post alive (probably will get lynched out of spite anyway.) I am going to be a little dramatic in the initial and ending stages of it. However please note the logic in the middle is non fluff and purely there so we can win the game. Well my fine friends it has been a long road and a good road. Minus the killing of that quiet guy cubu... His mother probably misses him. And kville... I really need to send his family a gift. Oh and err... turns out the guy who has been treating the sick for years on end in this town actually was a doctor. Sorry about that drazak. But, I hope to dine with you all in heaven should this final lynch go though. A toast! To the honourable townies Thrawn and Kreb!
/end fluff
First I am just going to state a few facts. Most of this post isn’t in paragraph style so keep this in mind.
The game is not over. The reason for that text is I wanted to have a bit of fun. One we can’t miss lynches or we lose. We are 1 to 4 but one dies tonight with a miss lynch another dies and then the night kill wins the game.
Secondly Xatalos has probably played the most games out of all of us. This is his fourth game as he has played three games before this. This is killings first game. Means nothing by its self but Xatalos has more practice as mafia and town.
Ok with the way he was acting to the sonic case last night and his filter in the light of who is mafia you should have enough info however something you must consider.
The only way he could win the game is to get a lynch on killing. Now in the past both kush and stutters have had doubts about killing however. You would think if he was town he would be arguing all night trying to win the game. (although he did post once now which I will address) What I think he is doing is waiting until I am night killed before making his case as he would have a larger chance of persuading you and I won’t be there to refute any arguments. There are other things mafia could do by not lynching me however but at the moment I only need to talk about if I am Nk’d as if not I will be alive to talk about it ^^. Also remember you (kush and stutters) thought sonic was town kush in part due to his last post. I encourage you not to go with feel reads but with facts. Remember I think xatalos sonic imcasey is the scum team. Most of the case was based on this being true. If sonic imcasey and killing was a team nothing would have made sense and I doubt I would have lynched sonic. Also when we were lynching kville, it was kville vs xatalos for the most part. One way to know you have a scum is if there is a bandwagon and a counter bandwagon. (notice the way the votes lined up) Now I will talk about xatalos night post. Fact everybody agrees with the game is over either way. First of all I will go with something simple. Why would you bus WeeTee imcasey for so long? Well it was clear he was unstable and the unsafe mafia to keep alive. Sonic was bussing him almost all game as well. Why call it a stupid huge risk? If you ignore the outcome of course it was. There was actually a lot more filter analysis than you think I just had trouble expressing it in my posts. At this stage in the game a connection theory is actually really useful as there are only 5 or so people in it. What I think you are trying to do is make what I say seem a risk and stupid. This way you have a better chance of changing the vote.
It wasn’t just your questioning but you were in my original theory. The connection case only worked if you were a connection. Also another thing I notice you seem to be trying to guilt trip and use the idiot method to convince people.
Saying stuff like we are going to be facepalming or “we are throwing away player analyse” Just a little thing. Town don’t listen to this listen to logic not critic based on emotions.
Killings exceedingly eager jump? No kidding as town he would have leapt at the chance to lynch mafia. If he was mafia he might make a really bad post to counter convince me or leapt on the chance as well. In the light of who flipped killings filter actually doesn’t look like mafia. Yours however... For one you and killing both accused sonic earlier game but you didn’t hang onto it for long. This is what I would expect of a mafia saying “But I accused him!”
Remember I am not god. If an elephant walks into the room and points to someone else being scum go for that but it would have to be a super huge elephant. I mean massive backed up with an army of logic that is so amazing you have to agree. In other words due to previous arguments and these things I listed I strongly think we should vote Xatalos. However let logic decide (kush you know what logic is right )
And because I have time waiting for the deadline. If I must leave you I leave you with the hopes and dreams of the people of this great town. I leave you the hope of the future, the guardians of the past and the true and just people of the present. (If I don’t die I might be sorely disappointed)
JacobStrangelove was minding his own business when he was suddenly assulted by a gang of mafia. Luckily, he was able to put his self-defense skills into action.
JacobStrangelove: "That's my purse. I don't know you!"
When the dust cleared, only one remained. The final villian.
JacobStrangelove as Bobby Hill the vanilla town has been killed.
I'm not sure what I can do to convince you at this point, but you're making a big mistake. I don't have time right now to look at KillingTime's filter, but later I'm going to read it through and post why KillingTime has to be Mafia. I urge you to read both of our filters as well to determine which of us truly is Mafia. Relying on just a WIFOMy connection theory is such a stupid way to lose (although it somehow hit correctly yesterday). You should use it as maybe a piece of additional evidence, but not as the ultimate solution to everything. That's just plain lazy at best.
One more thing: the NK of Jacob doesn't look good for me, but remember, it's what everyone would expect if I actually was Mafia. If the NK had been, for example, kushm4sta or Stutters695, it could have caused a wave of second-guessing and all around uncertainty for KillingTime. This way everything looks neatly like I have to be the final Mafia. Who would benefit from that, me or KillingTime?
Please take a look at our filters if nothing else. I just don't have the time to post right now, but hopefully I can make a big case later on.
I am here, excited that town is going to win this. Most of D3 I thought we were going to lose this game and we hadn't found a single scum - so I was pretty active then trying to convince you I was town and that there were better targets.
But today there (almost certainly) is one mafia and one town from me and Xatalos. I kind of think you 2 have to make up your own minds about which of us is town - I can post a case against Xatalos if they would like me to, and of course I want to help them any way I can with questions or whatever - but I think Kush & stutter have to direct the thread because it is their decision and I don't want to unnecessarily end up fighting with Xatalos in a way that does not bring clarity/ is not helpfull to them. To me it is as clear as it can be that reading your filter alongside sonic& imcasey's that you are the last scum Xatalos. Hopefully stutters agrees with Kush, Jacob (&me!)
killing, xatalos, don't even bother posting defenses because we are voting for xatalos no matter what and no words can change that. yeah its was wifom argument, but it isnt anymore because they aren't 2 unknowns. wifom gets a bad wrap, but I think it becomes more viable as there are less people.
ok then, - I am going to check into the thread once more before I go to bed in about 5/6 hours just incase stutters has an earth shattering revalation - otherwise all I am doing ATM is searching for the best reaction gif to post tomorrow incase it turns out that Kush is mafia (which it won't but the idea appeals to my sense of awesome).
Hank Hill had enough. It was time to end this game once and for all. He knew his enemy was still out there, and he was determined to vanquish him. He gathered up the rest of his surviving neighbors, and equipped himself with his propane powered flamethrower.
Charcoal had been hiding in the background, pulling the strings and slowly attempting to destroy Arlington, but luckily Dale and his crazy conspiracy theories and insane ramblings finally paid off. He tapped into Arlington's security camera network and found Charcoal hiding at the county fair. They all piled into Bill's van and took off, looking to corner him once and for all.
Arriving at the County Fair, Hank Hill saw his nemesis, and chased him to the bull riding arena. Charcoal knew he was done. Hank Hill lit his flamethrower, a gleam in his eye seeing the high efficiency death dealer brightened up the arena. "I tell ya what, boy. You done blew up my shop, but that will never stop me and mah boys here. I sell propane, and propane accessories, but today, I think you deserve some high efficiency 'Whoop-ass', courtesy of Arlington Propane, on the house!" Hank pulled the trigger on the flamethrower, burning the fossil fuel cleanly and efficiently. As he stopped the flow of propane, he heard a cheer from the crowd at the arena. Arlington was saved!
Xatalos, the Mafia Goon, as Charcoal, was burned alive! Stutters695, the Vigilante, as Dale, continued to be paranoid! KillingTime, the Vanilla Townie, as Hank Hill, became the world's greatest Propane & Propane accessories seller! kushm4sta, the Vanilla Townie, as Bill, lived to continue being lonely and depressed!
The game ends in a TOWN VICTORY!
Thanks to Kitaman for hosting and allowing me to cohost, Thanks to Hapahauli, Toadesstern, and DrH for Coaching! Thanks to the players for playing!
GG Kind of lost my motivation to play at the end, but it was a fun road to the end. And I learned two important things from this (my last) newbie game:
A) Establishing your innocence as town consists of engaging actively in all of the discussion and only changing your own views if you have a good reason. B) The worst mistake as Mafia is going into panic mode and starting to defend your teammate - never hesitate to bus unless you have no other choice.
The title of Most Valuable Player has to go to Jacob, although I still don't truly understand his reasoning for lynching Sonic Death Monkey But the end result is undeniable..
(I think I'm not going to play for a while, since it was a painful experience to see new developments in the discussion and not having the time to post - especially since as Mafia, I had to double-check all my posts for slips. My military service will end in January, though, and I guess our schedules will become more relaxed near to the end, so I'll see you all in normal Mafia games at least after a few months!)
Haha *mildly smug* My reasoning for the lynch was my brain suddenly clicked when I saw that combo. Wouldn't have worked without Stutters Killing Drazak though. GG
GG all... It would have been pretty impressive if sonic & xatalos managed to cause a perfect loss on d3 MVP to Jacob or Stutters for ignoring people telling him not to claim vig because his claim turned tha game around.
On September 13 2012 13:34 KillingTime wrote: GG all... It would have been pretty impressive if sonic & xatalos managed to cause a perfect loss on d3 MVP to Jacob or Stutters for ignoring people telling him not to claim vig because his claim turned tha game around.
I was claiming d3 no matter what. Was my only real contribution to the game (sorry). Figured going into d3 as a mylo would have honestly hurt us due to worse odds/the EU who wouldn't be around close to lynch to actually no lynch and with 3 Scum they could have easily done a last second switch for the game if people locked their votes before they went to bed. I actually was debating between shooting you (misguided Scum read) or Xatalos (activity based) but Drazak's voting had me pretty convinced he was Scum (oops). Mvp had to be Jacob without a doubt.
I read somewhere a while back that people usually play blue roles a, little lurkier than blues due to not wanting to eat an early nk but instead of doing more reasoned approaches I figured I'd I came off a bit scummy I could see who wanted to keep me alive as a potential mislynch and who was attacking me for the right reasons. Regrettably real life got in the way day 2/3 so even if it could have worked I didn't have time to use filters with it. Definitely going to avoid that approach in the future.
Still have no idea why I was getting lynch. Is it fair to say it was a "feel read"? Because it didn't seem very well logically reasoned. In any case we got owned.
Biggest disappointment of the game was the TL site screwing up format of this post (townie points to the one to first see the scum tell):
Well it started as a feel read (just seemed what you were saying was a little off) and when I looked at you as if you were mafia everything in the thread made logical(or intuitive) sense. So it was intuition or a feel read that made me no longer confused. Cause up until that point I honestly didn't have much of a clue. However it clicked and made perfect sense.
Problem was I didn't have much time to explain it all logically (like 10 hours til lynch and I needed sleep) so after putting up some arguments and seeing I wasn't going far I just decided to force the vote. Honestly the thing that set it off was you saying imcasey was probably scum. When I realised that was true it helped because you wouldn't be in a scum team with the others but you would with him. Something along those lines... Also the way killing was acting helped.
I can't actually see the scum tell (lol) I might have seen it in game but I don't remember.
Did you really try to post that written in that manner? Ouch, funny that we suddenly ended up lynching you after you were so confident enough to do that.
On September 13 2012 17:38 JacobStrangelove wrote: Well it started as a feel read (just seemed what you were saying was a little off) and when I looked at you as if you were mafia everything in the thread made logical(or intuitive) sense. So it was intuition or a feel read that made me no longer confused. Cause up until that point I honestly didn't have much of a clue. However it clicked and made perfect sense.
Problem was I didn't have much time to explain it all logically (like 10 hours til lynch and I needed sleep) so after putting up some arguments and seeing I wasn't going far I just decided to force the vote. Honestly the thing that set it off was you saying imcasey was probably scum. When I realised that was true it helped because you wouldn't be in a scum team with the others but you would with him. Something along those lines... Also the way killing was acting helped.
I can't actually see the scum tell (lol) I might have seen it in game but I don't remember.
That's one of my problems with your read. I never said he was probably scum. And pointing out that your extreme confidence in your imcasey read was unjustified is something I would've done as town 100%.
I don't think there's anything in the thread that necessarily make me look super towni, but I don't see what makes me look scum. It's hard for me to look at my actions objectively though.
On September 13 2012 17:47 KillingTime wrote: Did you really try to post that written in that manner? Ouch, funny that we suddenly ended up lynching you after you were so confident enough to do that.
I was 99% sure no-one would see it. I'm actually suprised you immediately saw it even after I hinted at what it was. And yeah, that's how it shows in the preview, but not when I posted.
I was pretty confident at that point though. After Jacob's n2 analysis post where he was basically completely wrong, I got really confident. I even think I said in the Maffia QT that keeping Jacob is a good thing because he's misleading everyone else. Look at how that turned out :p
On September 13 2012 18:21 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
I was pretty confident at that point though. After Jacob's n2 analysis post where he was basically completely wrong, I got really confident. I even think I said in the Maffia QT that keeping Jacob is a good thing because he's misleading everyone else. Look at how that turned out :p
Haha yeah I noticed probably going to get night killed day two whenever I roll town now... let me mislead everyone then kill me.
It wasn't so much that you would be scum for saying that but it just made me look at you. Honestly you played a near perfect game. Not so much that you questioned me on imcasey but more that because of your questioning I realised he was scum. With him being scum and the way killing reacted making him seem so town like. I was able to put killing as more town than you and with casey being mafia and stutters vig I only saw you left. (at this point I had xatalos almost confirmed scum due to the way the kville lynch went{and other things}) Also all the little things made sense. (you not wanting a vig reveal etc..{althought he vig thing seemed to confuse everybody for a while})
I am mostly just lucky my intuition kicked in. Nothing major just when I looked at filters with this mafia team in my head nothing felt wrong.
I also found it amusing when kush got upset at xatalos for Nk-ing me. Although that said I am not sure if I will play mafia for a while. Getting near the end of the semseter for me. Might play in the holidays.
On September 13 2012 17:38 JacobStrangelove wrote: Well it started as a feel read (just seemed what you were saying was a little off) and when I looked at you as if you were mafia everything in the thread made logical(or intuitive) sense. So it was intuition or a feel read that made me no longer confused. Cause up until that point I honestly didn't have much of a clue. However it clicked and made perfect sense.
Problem was I didn't have much time to explain it all logically (like 10 hours til lynch and I needed sleep) so after putting up some arguments and seeing I wasn't going far I just decided to force the vote. Honestly the thing that set it off was you saying imcasey was probably scum. When I realised that was true it helped because you wouldn't be in a scum team with the others but you would with him. Something along those lines... Also the way killing was acting helped.
I can't actually see the scum tell (lol) I might have seen it in game but I don't remember.
That's one of my problems with your read. I never said he was probably scum. And pointing out that your extreme confidence in your imcasey read was unjustified is something I would've done as town 100%.
I don't think there's anything in the thread that necessarily make me look super towni, but I don't see what makes me look scum. It's hard for me to look at my actions objectively though.
That's the problem though. When it came down to it There were only 4 townies in the game. and you did not make the top four whichever way you looked at it.
It was a bastardised version of this scum hunting strategy that got you.
Negative Elimination This is kind of a bad name for the strategy, but basically you focus on making town-reads (which you largely keep to yourself). You defend them in the thread and focus on pressuring anyone you don't have a town read on, supporting their lynch and trying to gather info and increase your list of townreads. You use the process of elimination and townreads to pressure scum instead of scumreads.
Pros: townreads are easier to make than scumreads. focussing on defending good townies can keep them alive for later. Cons: this makes you a bit hard to read. also, you need to constantly re-evaluate your townreads since scum could have you fooled. in games where townies are hard to find this goes very poorly.
I think going for the perfect victory caught up with you. And you were also over confident by the end judging by the Scum QT. If I were you I would have bussed one of your own HARD. Then you would have been in the position Jacob was in and could have lynched anyone of your choosing.
On September 13 2012 18:19 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 13 2012 17:38 JacobStrangelove wrote: Well it started as a feel read (just seemed what you were saying was a little off) and when I looked at you as if you were mafia everything in the thread made logical(or intuitive) sense. So it was intuition or a feel read that made me no longer confused. Cause up until that point I honestly didn't have much of a clue. However it clicked and made perfect sense.
Problem was I didn't have much time to explain it all logically (like 10 hours til lynch and I needed sleep) so after putting up some arguments and seeing I wasn't going far I just decided to force the vote. Honestly the thing that set it off was you saying imcasey was probably scum. When I realised that was true it helped because you wouldn't be in a scum team with the others but you would with him. Something along those lines... Also the way killing was acting helped.
I can't actually see the scum tell (lol) I might have seen it in game but I don't remember.
That's one of my problems with your read. I never said he was probably scum. And pointing out that your extreme confidence in your imcasey read was unjustified is something I would've done as town 100%.
I don't think there's anything in the thread that necessarily make me look super towni, but I don't see what makes me look scum. It's hard for me to look at my actions objectively though.
That's the problem though. When it came down to it There were only 4 townies in the game. and you did not make the top four whichever way you looked at it.
Negative Elimination This is kind of a bad name for the strategy, but basically you focus on making town-reads (which you largely keep to yourself). You defend them in the thread and focus on pressuring anyone you don't have a town read on, supporting their lynch and trying to gather info and increase your list of townreads. You use the process of elimination and townreads to pressure scum instead of scumreads.
Pros: townreads are easier to make than scumreads. focussing on defending good townies can keep them alive for later. Cons: this makes you a bit hard to read. also, you need to constantly re-evaluate your townreads since scum could have you fooled. in games where townies are hard to find this goes very poorly.
I think going for the perfect victory caught up with you. And you were also over confident by the end judging by the Scum QT. If I were you I would have bussed one of your own HARD. Then you would have been in the position Jacob was in and could have lynched anyone of your choosing.
In hindsight, I agree. We should have bussed one of us hard and taken the easy win. However, I (we) got a bit overconfident and wanted to go for a flawless victory (I was also hesitant because our cover was starting to crack slowly but surely... would a bus be enough for the win?).
If Casey and Sonic had Bussed you hard. Like at the start of the day, before all the shit with jacob happened. I think you would have won the game. Imagine Casey and Sonic two players who could have both pushed for a lynch on killing with the added benefit of being right.
Did you notice how everyone followed Jacob with no question after the SDM lynch? That could have been SDM after your lynch. In that case it would almost certainly have been GG.
On September 13 2012 18:21 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
I was pretty confident at that point though. After Jacob's n2 analysis post where he was basically completely wrong, I got really confident. I even think I said in the Maffia QT that keeping Jacob is a good thing because he's misleading everyone else. Look at how that turned out :p
Haha yeah I noticed probably going to get night killed day two whenever I roll town now... let me mislead everyone then kill me.
It wasn't so much that you would be scum for saying that but it just made me look at you. Honestly you played a near perfect game. Not so much that you questioned me on imcasey but more that because of your questioning I realised he was scum. With him being scum and the way killing reacted making him seem so town like. I was able to put killing as more town than you and with casey being mafia and stutters vig I only saw you left. (at this point I had xatalos almost confirmed scum due to the way the kville lynch went{and other things}) Also all the little things made sense. (you not wanting a vig reveal etc..{althought he vig thing seemed to confuse everybody for a while})
I am mostly just lucky my intuition kicked in. Nothing major just when I looked at filters with this mafia team in my head nothing felt wrong.
I also found it amusing when kush got upset at xatalos for Nk-ing me. Although that said I am not sure if I will play mafia for a while. Getting near the end of the semseter for me. Might play in the holidays.
I still don't get how you confirmed imcasey scum. Or how the Kville lynch made Xatalos confirmed scum. Or how them being confirmed scum made ME the best lynch. Don't get me wrong, it was still a very nice play. Sometimes the brain can process lots of small stuff you can't put to words (I guess that's intuition). You relied on yours and it paid off.
The way I acted wrt the vig reveal was exactly how I would've reacted as town. My problem was since I didn't have enough time to explain exactly what I meant. I don't think the vig should reveal unless he's at the risk of getting lynched (or like Stutters, doesn't follow the thread closely enough to be able to react in time). Having the vig wait for the reveal seems better from a town perspective. It's possible that analysis is wrong though, there are both benefits and drawbacks of an early reveal. At least I didn't have scummy intentions when discussing it and I probably would've been better off just not discussing it :p
On September 13 2012 18:19 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 13 2012 17:38 JacobStrangelove wrote: Well it started as a feel read (just seemed what you were saying was a little off) and when I looked at you as if you were mafia everything in the thread made logical(or intuitive) sense. So it was intuition or a feel read that made me no longer confused. Cause up until that point I honestly didn't have much of a clue. However it clicked and made perfect sense.
Problem was I didn't have much time to explain it all logically (like 10 hours til lynch and I needed sleep) so after putting up some arguments and seeing I wasn't going far I just decided to force the vote. Honestly the thing that set it off was you saying imcasey was probably scum. When I realised that was true it helped because you wouldn't be in a scum team with the others but you would with him. Something along those lines... Also the way killing was acting helped.
I can't actually see the scum tell (lol) I might have seen it in game but I don't remember.
That's one of my problems with your read. I never said he was probably scum. And pointing out that your extreme confidence in your imcasey read was unjustified is something I would've done as town 100%.
I don't think there's anything in the thread that necessarily make me look super towni, but I don't see what makes me look scum. It's hard for me to look at my actions objectively though.
That's the problem though. When it came down to it There were only 4 townies in the game. and you did not make the top four whichever way you looked at it.
Negative Elimination This is kind of a bad name for the strategy, but basically you focus on making town-reads (which you largely keep to yourself). You defend them in the thread and focus on pressuring anyone you don't have a town read on, supporting their lynch and trying to gather info and increase your list of townreads. You use the process of elimination and townreads to pressure scum instead of scumreads.
Pros: townreads are easier to make than scumreads. focussing on defending good townies can keep them alive for later. Cons: this makes you a bit hard to read. also, you need to constantly re-evaluate your townreads since scum could have you fooled. in games where townies are hard to find this goes very poorly.
I think going for the perfect victory caught up with you. And you were also over confident by the end judging by the Scum QT. If I were you I would have bussed one of your own HARD. Then you would have been in the position Jacob was in and could have lynched anyone of your choosing.
I'm not sure. There was a lot of momentum behind the Killing wagon. Not only Jacob but also Kush and Stutters were behind it. That's the entire town team. Remember Jacob's reads going into d3 was:
imcasey: certain town Me: almost certain town Xatalos: leaning town Killing: almost certain scum
My d3 plan was going hard at Xatalos and Killing. Trying to free Killing from suspicion seemed like a really bad move because given the circumstances he's getting lynched on d3 >75% of the time and we win (if anyone claims anything else you need to put away your ex-post goggles, Jacob's save was a clear outlier). Depending on how well Xatalos defended himself d3 I was open for pushing his wagon instead though. Basically just like I would've played as town.
Negative elimination had me worried, like I hinted at in the beginning of d3 (I thought it would've been Xatalos getting lynched, not myself). I couldn't possibly prepare for this scenario on n2 though, because I didn't think they had a vig. Their vig meant that both Stutters and drazak (two of the players most suspected for being scum) became cofirmed townies and instead of a scenario where the town needs to find 3 scum out of 8 players they only needed to find 3 out of 6. I was really out of the discussion for being negative elimination eliminated before those events. At d3 the variables of the game completely changed and I didn't have the time to be around and influence it.
So if you're telling me I should've planned bussing a scum at n2 already, I disagree. If you're telling me I should've bussed Xatalos d3 after Stutters claims vig, yeah I agree, but I wasn't around at that time.
On September 13 2012 19:57 DarthPunk wrote: If Casey and Sonic had Bussed you hard. Like at the start of the day, before all the shit with jacob happened. I think you would have won the game. Imagine Casey and Sonic two players who could have both pushed for a lynch on killing with the added benefit of being right.
Did you notice how everyone followed Jacob with no question after the SDM lynch? That could have been SDM after your lynch. In that case it would almost certainly have been GG.
Oh, I didn't see this post. The entire town team was behind lynching Killing and we're supposed to start the day off by lynching Xatalos hard? What would be the rationale behind that?
edit: read the few posts starting from here. drazak all but claimed medic in-thread ^_^
further edit:
On September 05 2012 10:40 drazak wrote: I'm saying from a medic's point of view, I wasn't sure about him myself. Obviously he WAS town, but he had a lot of town power which isn't always a good thing.
That one was the cutest. Hapa and I had big smiles talking about the passage sitting on IRC.
On September 13 2012 19:57 DarthPunk wrote: If Casey and Sonic had Bussed you hard. Like at the start of the day, before all the shit with jacob happened. I think you would have won the game. Imagine Casey and Sonic two players who could have both pushed for a lynch on killing with the added benefit of being right.
Did you notice how everyone followed Jacob with no question after the SDM lynch? That could have been SDM after your lynch. In that case it would almost certainly have been GG.
Oh, I didn't see this post. The entire town team was behind lynching Killing and we're supposed to start the day off by lynching Xatalos hard? What would be the rationale behind that?
It is safer. I think you would have won for sure that way. The way you played it out relied on the fact that the three of you looked more townie than the four real town. From reading the thread I am not sure taht was a safe assumption to make. If you had bussed Xatalos day 3. You would have a lot of town cred with which to get 1 mislynch during the next two days. If you don't understand the rational behind it. I am sorry. but it is obvious to me. If you are going to bus for town cred. It is worth much less if the suspicion is already on you. If you did it whilst the suspicion was on killing it actually has value.
On September 13 2012 18:19 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 13 2012 17:38 JacobStrangelove wrote: Well it started as a feel read (just seemed what you were saying was a little off) and when I looked at you as if you were mafia everything in the thread made logical(or intuitive) sense. So it was intuition or a feel read that made me no longer confused. Cause up until that point I honestly didn't have much of a clue. However it clicked and made perfect sense.
Problem was I didn't have much time to explain it all logically (like 10 hours til lynch and I needed sleep) so after putting up some arguments and seeing I wasn't going far I just decided to force the vote. Honestly the thing that set it off was you saying imcasey was probably scum. When I realised that was true it helped because you wouldn't be in a scum team with the others but you would with him. Something along those lines... Also the way killing was acting helped.
I can't actually see the scum tell (lol) I might have seen it in game but I don't remember.
That's one of my problems with your read. I never said he was probably scum. And pointing out that your extreme confidence in your imcasey read was unjustified is something I would've done as town 100%.
I don't think there's anything in the thread that necessarily make me look super towni, but I don't see what makes me look scum. It's hard for me to look at my actions objectively though.
That's the problem though. When it came down to it There were only 4 townies in the game. and you did not make the top four whichever way you looked at it.
It was a bastardised version of this scum hunting strategy that got you.
Negative Elimination This is kind of a bad name for the strategy, but basically you focus on making town-reads (which you largely keep to yourself). You defend them in the thread and focus on pressuring anyone you don't have a town read on, supporting their lynch and trying to gather info and increase your list of townreads. You use the process of elimination and townreads to pressure scum instead of scumreads.
Pros: townreads are easier to make than scumreads. focussing on defending good townies can keep them alive for later. Cons: this makes you a bit hard to read. also, you need to constantly re-evaluate your townreads since scum could have you fooled. in games where townies are hard to find this goes very poorly.
I think going for the perfect victory caught up with you. And you were also over confident by the end judging by the Scum QT. If I were you I would have bussed one of your own HARD. Then you would have been in the position Jacob was in and could have lynched anyone of your choosing.
In hindsight, I agree. We should have bussed one of us hard and taken the easy win. However, I (we) got a bit overconfident and wanted to go for a flawless victory (I was also hesitant because our cover was starting to crack slowly but surely... would a bus be enough for the win?).
One of the things I learnt playing mafia is that it can REALLY quickly and suddenly go terribly, terribly wrong. All it takes is a sudden change of heart from an influential townie and everything starts falling apart. Always (mostly ) go for the best percentage play, not the flawless victory.
Relatedly, it goes to show the massive importance of at least one scum having significant town and thread presence. When it all started going tits up with Jacob wanting Sonic dead, scum could do nothing because they didn't have any sway to do so.
And If you feel like you need something to justify a Xatalos lynch in order to satisfy your town personas, then you could easily manufacture it in the QT.
On September 05 2012 10:40 drazak wrote: I'm saying from a medic's point of view, I wasn't sure about him myself. Obviously he WAS town, but he had a lot of town power which isn't always a good thing.
That one was the cutest. Hapa and I had big smiles talking about the passage sitting on IRC.
If you look at the MafiaQT, I also noticed that, but I had a hard time believing he actually Medic-slipped so obviously Maybe we should have killed him and prevented Stutters from becoming confirmed town, haha!
On September 13 2012 18:19 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 13 2012 17:38 JacobStrangelove wrote: Well it started as a feel read (just seemed what you were saying was a little off) and when I looked at you as if you were mafia everything in the thread made logical(or intuitive) sense. So it was intuition or a feel read that made me no longer confused. Cause up until that point I honestly didn't have much of a clue. However it clicked and made perfect sense.
Problem was I didn't have much time to explain it all logically (like 10 hours til lynch and I needed sleep) so after putting up some arguments and seeing I wasn't going far I just decided to force the vote. Honestly the thing that set it off was you saying imcasey was probably scum. When I realised that was true it helped because you wouldn't be in a scum team with the others but you would with him. Something along those lines... Also the way killing was acting helped.
I can't actually see the scum tell (lol) I might have seen it in game but I don't remember.
That's one of my problems with your read. I never said he was probably scum. And pointing out that your extreme confidence in your imcasey read was unjustified is something I would've done as town 100%.
I don't think there's anything in the thread that necessarily make me look super towni, but I don't see what makes me look scum. It's hard for me to look at my actions objectively though.
That's the problem though. When it came down to it There were only 4 townies in the game. and you did not make the top four whichever way you looked at it.
It was a bastardised version of this scum hunting strategy that got you.
Negative Elimination This is kind of a bad name for the strategy, but basically you focus on making town-reads (which you largely keep to yourself). You defend them in the thread and focus on pressuring anyone you don't have a town read on, supporting their lynch and trying to gather info and increase your list of townreads. You use the process of elimination and townreads to pressure scum instead of scumreads.
Pros: townreads are easier to make than scumreads. focussing on defending good townies can keep them alive for later. Cons: this makes you a bit hard to read. also, you need to constantly re-evaluate your townreads since scum could have you fooled. in games where townies are hard to find this goes very poorly.
I think going for the perfect victory caught up with you. And you were also over confident by the end judging by the Scum QT. If I were you I would have bussed one of your own HARD. Then you would have been in the position Jacob was in and could have lynched anyone of your choosing.
In hindsight, I agree. We should have bussed one of us hard and taken the easy win. However, I (we) got a bit overconfident and wanted to go for a flawless victory (I was also hesitant because our cover was starting to crack slowly but surely... would a bus be enough for the win?).
One of the things I learnt playing mafia is that it can REALLY quickly and suddenly go terribly, terribly wrong. All it takes is a sudden change of heart from an influential townie and everything starts falling apart. Always (mostly ) go for the best percentage play, not the flawless victory.
Relatedly, it goes to show the massive importance of at least one scum having significant town and thread presence. When it all started going tits up with Jacob wanting Sonic dead, scum could do nothing because they didn't have any sway to do so.
Yeah this is what I was trying to say. Marv just said it way better.
Yeah, I saw that once he flipped but thought it was not going to help me mentioning it at that point... At the time I just thought he was trying to seem sympathetic to town.. Also the stutters breadcrumb was something that a more experienced player prob would have seen before he declared it. Ah the benefit of hindsight!
On September 05 2012 10:40 drazak wrote: I'm saying from a medic's point of view, I wasn't sure about him myself. Obviously he WAS town, but he had a lot of town power which isn't always a good thing.
That one was the cutest. Hapa and I had big smiles talking about the passage sitting on IRC.
Yeah, we was a little bit late on the ball on that one. Close to EOD2, Xatalos in Maffia QT:
Something caught my eye. Maybe drazak is a Medic? He says this:
drazak United States. September 05 2012 10:38. Posts 106 PM Profile Report Quote # Not to demean his memory, but he could have been good mafia convincing us he was town and trying to lead us into bad lynches.
drazak United States. September 05 2012 10:40. Posts 106 PM Profile Report Quote # I'm saying from a medic's point of view, I wasn't sure about him myself. Obviously he WAS town, but he had a lot of town power which isn't always a good thing.
My response:
Btw, I had no idea what drazak was talking about when he made that post. I've heard blue roles are the most likely to talk about blue roles, so you might be onto something. We'll see in a few minutes :/
On September 13 2012 21:09 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 13 2012 19:57 DarthPunk wrote: If Casey and Sonic had Bussed you hard. Like at the start of the day, before all the shit with jacob happened. I think you would have won the game. Imagine Casey and Sonic two players who could have both pushed for a lynch on killing with the added benefit of being right.
Did you notice how everyone followed Jacob with no question after the SDM lynch? That could have been SDM after your lynch. In that case it would almost certainly have been GG.
Oh, I didn't see this post. The entire town team was behind lynching Killing and we're supposed to start the day off by lynching Xatalos hard? What would be the rationale behind that?
It is safer. I think you would have won for sure that way. The way you played it out relied on the fact that the three of you looked more townie than the four real town. From reading the thread I am not sure taht was a safe assumption to make. If you had bussed Xatalos day 3. You would have a lot of town cred with which to get 1 mislynch during the next two days. If you don't understand the rational behind it. I am sorry. but it is obvious to me. If you are going to bus for town cred. It is worth much less if the suspicion is already on you. If you did it whilst the suspicion was on killing it actually has value.
Of course I understand the rationale, it's basic town cred hunting. What I meant is it doesn't seem rational to go after Xatalos at the start of d3 as town. If it's not something rational to do as town, it's fishy to do as scum. He had basically been afk for five days and now I'm supposed to go lynch him hard before he's had the chance to post anything? Even though there's really no new information to sway my opinion in that direction? As town I would've reacted to what he said and as scum I act like I would've acted as town.
also the strange love affair between Jacob and kush was a pleasure to read. Sadly I didn't follow the game very closely, but their interactions from what I saw were very enjoyable. Two guys super-invested in the game and talking about stuff to each other.
On September 13 2012 21:09 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 13 2012 19:57 DarthPunk wrote: If Casey and Sonic had Bussed you hard. Like at the start of the day, before all the shit with jacob happened. I think you would have won the game. Imagine Casey and Sonic two players who could have both pushed for a lynch on killing with the added benefit of being right.
Did you notice how everyone followed Jacob with no question after the SDM lynch? That could have been SDM after your lynch. In that case it would almost certainly have been GG.
Oh, I didn't see this post. The entire town team was behind lynching Killing and we're supposed to start the day off by lynching Xatalos hard? What would be the rationale behind that?
It is safer. I think you would have won for sure that way. The way you played it out relied on the fact that the three of you looked more townie than the four real town. From reading the thread I am not sure taht was a safe assumption to make. If you had bussed Xatalos day 3. You would have a lot of town cred with which to get 1 mislynch during the next two days. If you don't understand the rational behind it. I am sorry. but it is obvious to me. If you are going to bus for town cred. It is worth much less if the suspicion is already on you. If you did it whilst the suspicion was on killing it actually has value.
Of course I understand the rationale, it's basic town cred hunting. What I meant is it doesn't seem rational to go after Xatalos at the start of d3 as town. If it's not something rational to do as town, it's fishy to do as scum. He had basically been afk for five days and now I'm supposed to go lynch him hard before he's had the chance to post anything? Even though there's really no new information to sway my opinion in that direction? As town I would've reacted to what he said and as scum I act like I would've acted as town.
townies re-read the thread and come up with new scumreads all the time
On September 13 2012 21:25 DarthPunk wrote: And If you feel like you need something to justify a Xatalos lynch in order to satisfy your town personas, then you could easily manufacture it in the QT.
I still don't entirely understand Jacob's read on SDM, but I think it does illustrate a couple of faults in the early-game mafia strategy.
If you look at the situation on D3 from Jacob's point of view... Himself Kush Stutters KillingTime iamcasey SDM Xatalos
At that point in the game, every player in the game was treating stutters and kush as almost confirmed townies. Jacob was also very strongly town to other townies. The only mislynch mafia could have pushed KillingTime. If Plan A didn't work, Plan B" was to roll over and die. Why did this happen? Mafia's Night 2 Kill of Kreb!
Mafia really had no business trying to blue-snipe on Day 2, because it didn't fit together with their Day 1 play. For some reason, Mafia established the "townieness" of kush very early on. Not shooting him is a huge liability, because he is one less person for the town to mislynch in later days. Not shooting him created a D3 where town basically had a 75% to catch scum.
As a side note, I really hate bluesniping in newbie games in general. You should only blue-snipe if you see an obvious bread-crumb, a blue-claim, or a very obvious tell (i.e. Drazak's early N1 posts). Otherwise, getting rid of obvious townies, regardless of skill, is a great idea to set up for the endgame.
Even without the iamcasey modkill and the vigi-shot on Drazak, I still don't think scum were set up well for the later days. The scumteam got complacent, and were too happy with their early-game play to continue and push their advantage. This game gets harder and harder for mafia as the game goes on, and it requires proactive play throughout.
Oh, and Drazak's medic claim was awesome. Kinda surprised no one picked up on the significance TBH =P
On September 13 2012 22:06 Hapahauli wrote: I still don't entirely understand Jacob's read on SDM, but I think it does illustrate a couple of faults in the early-game mafia strategy.
If you look at the situation on D3 from Jacob's point of view... Himself Kush Stutters KillingTime iamcasey SDM Xatalos
At that point in the game, every player in the game was treating stutters and kush as almost confirmed townies. Jacob was also very strongly town to other townies. The only mislynch mafia could have pushed KillingTime. If Plan A didn't work, Plan B" was to roll over and die. Why did this happen? Mafia's Night 2 Kill of Kreb!
Mafia really had no business trying to blue-snipe on Day 2, because it didn't fit together with their Day 1 play. For some reason, Mafia established the "townieness" of kush very early on. Not shooting him is a huge liability, because he is one less person for the town to mislynch in later days. Not shooting him created a D3 where town basically had a 75% to catch scum.
As a side note, I really hate bluesniping in newbie games in general. You should only blue-snipe if you see an obvious bread-crumb, a blue-claim, or a very obvious tell (i.e. Drazak's early N1 posts). Otherwise, getting rid of obvious townies, regardless of skill, is a great idea to set up for the endgame.
Even without the iamcasey modkill and the vigi-shot on Drazak, I still don't think scum were set up well for the later days. The scumteam got complacent, and were too happy with their early-game play to continue and push their advantage. This game gets harder and harder for mafia as the game goes on, and it requires proactive play throughout.
Oh, and Drazak's medic claim was awesome. Kinda surprised no one picked up on the significance TBH =P
Yeah, that mistake is on me. I thought we could kill him off later, but I underestimated the need of killing off others (blues and other trusted townies) so in the end we had too many confirmed townies.
And +1 for this game getting harder for maffia in the late game :p
I think Jacobs's read can be summarised as " a Xatalos/casey/killing" mafia team makes no sense for the game so far - which it didn't unless we were the luckiest mafia ever - therefore sonic must be mafia?
That is how I read it when he made the point anyway (ofc I was not so sure about Kush - but was willing to jump on any potential save at that point.)
On September 13 2012 21:42 marvellosity wrote: ah yes ^_^
also the strange love affair between Jacob and kush was a pleasure to read. Sadly I didn't follow the game very closely, but their interactions from what I saw were very enjoyable. Two guys super-invested in the game and talking about stuff to each other.
On September 14 2012 05:58 kushm4sta wrote: me and Jacob gonna make beautiful vanilla townie babies