EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXVI - Page 22
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
The reason I am putting the pressure on Killing and Xato so much is so they explain what is going on. Assuming you are not mafia the likelyhood of one of them being one is high. So I agree we should put the heat on him that is what I have been trying to do. I haven’t commited to Xato as I am waiting for a response. Your and thrawns stutters read does make sense... motivation over activity. Whose analysis was I latching onto there? The only analysis part I latched onto was the first line. From kush going for Xatalos onwards that was all mine. (With exception to the wagon when tired up part) I am confirming parts of other people’s analysis that makes sense. Also the case against kush isn’t strong, as I said before you (not bad wagoning I promise...) It leaves more reason to Drazak being scum than Kush. On September 05 2012 18:12 JacobStrangelove wrote: Kush is getting pushed on by Darzak who had both the people against him lynched. This makes it more likely that he is scum than kush is but we shouldn't fall into the trap if thinking kush is confirmed town just because thrawn thought so. I probably should point out that part of the reason I had a town read for WeeTee is that I happen to know his style (see his first post where he mentions it’s good to see me) and it reeks of town. With this (although he may have fooled me) I thought Xatatos read of WeeTee when Stutters was available strange. Also with killing he is sceptical of “meta” reads On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote: My point was that I did not think your town reads added much to the thread, partly because I am very sceptical of "meta" reads at this point given that we all have 3 or less games. Sure but its more information, that can only be helpful. If WeeTee fits his meta (he does) and he fits the meta I know he is unlikely to be scum. This and the fact that he had to leave due to time problems(although that may have been after my time line is a little messed up) then surely stutters were a better lynch. For this reason I have been thinking that killing is mafia sudo protecting stutters. Since the focus is on me now I need to say The Killing /xatalos thing was simply a hypothesis I was using to draw them out. (It was based on someone else’s analysis yes) It drew out Killing and he responded well. (although it was list like) So I am simply waiting for Xatalos to reenter the thread. If he reenters the thread and doesn’t post good responses I will turn the dogs in my head towards him. | ||
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
@ imcasey: I can understand why some of those behaviors you pointed out might look suspicious. Much better case than drazak IMO. Why did I even bring up no vote d1? I admitted immediately after that it was bad play. It's just that d1 lynch always seems to be town, and last game I played in we had no lurkers. That's what lead me to believe at the time that d1 no lynch might be a good idea. This game we have many lurkers, so no lynch day 1 is even more stupid. We have a huge list of people that deserved to be lynch just as policy lynches. Policy lynches is when you lynch someone not because they are mafia but because they blatantly go against town policy and are bad for town. People that fit that description: drazak early d1, stutters early d1, cubu, kville, weetee. Why did I vote for krebs so early? Because votes are not permanent and I knew that. It was more to get him to talk more since I thought his first post was very suspicious and bad. I am trying to be less impulsive now though. Then he really suspects thrawn2112 I never really suspected thrawn or thought he did anything suspicious. It's just that his style is to play very carefully, which is sometimes a trait of mafia. Town is reckless, mafia is careful. I think it would be very hard to figure out that he was mafia is he was one, simply because he would be so good at hiding it. Shite I really have to go to class.. I will defend myself from drazak after, then that's all the defense I will do unless other people bring it up, because honestly I think it's a waste of time and space. But don't bitch me out drazak... I will spend another post defending myself from you. | ||
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Kville
United States173 Posts
On September 05 2012 11:24 Xatalos wrote: I'm in extreme hurry right now, but some comments on the recent events... Farewell thrawn2112, you will be missed :/ Can't say I'm too surprised about the night kill, though. kushm4sta, you're severely underestimating my contributions. At the moment I have a pretty good case against Sonic Death Monkey and WeeTee (imcasey), and although the case against Sonic Death Monkey is a bit outdated, the case against WeeTee (imcasey) is quite good IMO. At least I think it's much stronger than the policy lynching of kville or the suspicions toward Stutters695. I agree that I could have been more active so far, but when I look at my own filter, I've scumhunted and/or pushed the discussion forward in every post. Much more than can be said about most players so far. Now I have to leave, but I'll be able to post again later today. My vote is going for imcasey, as I previously reasoned. I'll be looking at each player's filters later today, though. ##Vote imcasey (Btw, my vote for Cubu was in real hurry as well, so I indeed should have reasoned it better, but I just had no time. I'll get back to it later!) Well WeeTee Did get replaced which could be the reason why he was playing so "safe" and conservative. He badnwagoned to avoid a modkill in order to fulfill the replacement, so it seems. The fact that there is little to no evidence other than "he was playing safe" doesn't really seem like a sure vote to go for, unless you are trying for another mislynch. You vote and leave the first day and you do it again the second time. It seems like your strategy seems to be "POP" then lurk. which seems a bit suspicious. And making a Vigi shoot for a town for the reason of "just cuase" seems rather irresponsible and just loses a town at the end. I don't think kville is Mafia, If there is a Vigilante, kville would make for a good shot. You have a town read on me yet you still want to kill me off. Why lower the odds town in such a way? #FoS Xatalos | ||
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
ANYWAY @drazak On September 05 2012 13:38 drazak wrote:+ Show Spoiler + So, you weren't actually scum hunting, why weren't you scum hunting? Couldn't figure out who to lynch and actually make a good case for because you're mafia? Just because thrawn called you town doesn't make you town. For the record, town doesn't need a leader, a leader can hurt a town more than help, if the leader is mafia, we're all fucked. Saying that you're the most active doesn't actually make you town. We agreed that the only deciding factor is that being too lurker-ish is scummy. Active does not equate to town. Accusing me because I'm accusing you is a very bad idea, that's like, the #1 worse scum defense. So tell me, with logical terms, good reasons, and actual evidence, who your best two scum reads are? I was scumhunting, I just didn't have a great idea of who was scum day 1, as no one did. I thought cubu looked more like mafia than anyone else. Scumhunting doesn't' mean figuring out 100% who is mafia, that is impossible. Thrawn calling me town doesn't make me town--this is true. But thrawn is a confirmed innocent so at least we know that all his motivations were pro town and his beliefs genuine. Drazak I agree the town doesn't need a leader, but I think we do need to be focused. And what I mean by that is we should not all be analyzing different people. That is what mafia wants because it makes it easy for mafia to hide amidst that confusion and not to take a stance on people he doesn't want to take a stance on. You ask me who my best scum reads are atm. I will comply. As of now it's xatalos, for reasons already posted. I still want to analyze your filter more, drazak, but I will say that accusing me out of the blue, since for many I am a strong town read, was not really a safe move, and that gives you town points...minor town points though, because you may have thought that cubu flipping green justified your suspicion. Other people I am suspicious of is stutters, since he has been absent for quite a while now.. I really want to see what he is going to post today before I make a judgement on him. I will post more substantially later. PS I really don't want to lynch kville in light of his most recent post and just thinking about it more. He deserves the lynch maybe because his play was just really bad and anti town but I don't want to waste it on him. Also I think it is mostly a waste of time to discuss him, since there is not much to talk about or analyze in his posts. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 05 2012 19:22 JacobStrangelove wrote: I HAVE looked through those filters and because if it I want more people to do the same. It's obvious I am the big one going at killing at least so I am in a spot if he is lynched and flips town. Despite almost nobody thinking he is scum (after his list post day one people all thought he was town{not going to start the lists are easy to hide behind stuff again}) Also I don't think I am latching on to other peoples reads if I am going for killing and Xato. (xato maybe but you must realise almost everyone has been accused so almost everyone thinking the same could be a bandwagon move). The reason I am putting the pressure on Killing and Xato so much is so they explain what is going on. Assuming you are not mafia the likelyhood of one of them being one is high. So I agree we should put the heat on him that is what I have been trying to do. I haven’t commited to Xato as I am waiting for a response. Your and thrawns stutters read does make sense... motivation over activity. Whose analysis was I latching onto there? The only analysis part I latched onto was the first line. From kush going for Xatalos onwards that was all mine. (With exception to the wagon when tired up part) I am confirming parts of other people’s analysis that makes sense. Posts like yours are the reason I encouraged clear and concise posting in my first "fluffy" post of the thread. They frustrate me to no end. I already asked you to try to stop rambling but your posts just continue to be all over the place, which is just distracting. (yeah, someone rightly accused me of being "thread police" earlier, whatever, can we please try to make at least some sense when we're posting?) I went through your posting history on Killing and these are the most logical arguments you made (which speak volumes about the arguments I left out): + Show Spoiler + On September 03 2012 01:02 JacobStrangelove wrote: Killing time: I do read you as scum you post twice one with a very safe set of people to accuse (apart from myself to this point) and you were missing for a large period of time with no apparent reason. Standard early d1 fluff/lurk accusation, nothing wrong with that really. On September 03 2012 01:02 JacobStrangelove wrote: Sonic: I am also unsure about sonic due to the point you brought up regarding him being a fluffy poster as well. That said (I am doing this again I know...) what he said about it fitting everyone in the thread so far also is a sound argument. However my initial scum read was sonic. (due to fluffy posting) only question is why would a sonic Killing time team act this way? [...] Kreb: Maybe a scum read but not enough to put him in there. His “list” is basically just agreeing with everything except the one person that is controversial. Possible Kreb/Killing team? Now you introduce possible connection between me/killing and kreb/killing. For some reason you're out for Killing and you throw out random ideas to see what sticks. On September 04 2012 16:36 JacobStrangelove wrote: So who started the bandwagon? Who joined in?(in a strange manner) I am almost sure one of the three sonic, myself or killing is mafia. More killing because he promised a (probably longer post in the evening then just said goodnight.) Admittedly this is a really weak reason. [...] YES Exactly Kreb about the weak lynch *cough* Killing *cough* also good point about who was opposed. A new argument you even find weak yourself. In the second bolded part I don't know what you're talking about (reading the Kreb post referenced didn't help). On September 04 2012 22:42 JacobStrangelove wrote: Ok, So due to motivation stutters is likely to be scum. But I would like some answers out of Killing as to what he is thinking right now. Your only real strong read as the game went on was WeeTee but considering he didn't have time and had to leave the thread it is likely he is town without time. (now ImCasey) So what do you think now? I have been ranting at you for a while (maybe misguided) but you could give me something to go on. You also mention that it is any particular reason for this? Just thought it was slightly strange that you would point out who started the wagon in particular. Also you could have a scum motivation for trying to stop people talking at night. Just saying. Also here You left them aside forever. The only other comment you seemed to make was You would think you could come up with something better than that? When people accuse me of things I list reasons why it's illogical and such. You seem to be hiding under short posts now. Lots of words, no accusations of substance and now you want logical explanations? On September 05 2012 11:48 JacobStrangelove wrote: Wait so both killling and Xatalos were going at weetee/imcasey? *cough* doesn't this sound right. Considering according to thrawn (confirmed town now) both had week reasoning for cubu and Xatalos was defending killing in a non committal way at one point(not much but...) Sonic case is so out of date though. Even I stopped harassing him as I ended up at least partially satisfied. I would look at the Xatalos/Killing filters if I were you. They both seem to be starting a bandwagon. Xatalos starts it and then killing jumps on. I agree policy lynch on kville/stutters might be a problem considering the place it would leave us in.(if they flip town) That said I want to know more about you guys (kville and stutters) go out there say stuff. You are likely to get lynched before these guys so try and help us out. Also you would think he would wait for imcasey to start posting. I could be wrong so anyone feel free to point out any illogic here. Here you introduce the Xatalos/Killing connection. As far as I understand, it would be based on the fact that: 1. Thrawn claimed they both had weak reasonings for voting Cubu. Killing didn't vote on Cubu until after the point it was sure he was getting lynched though. You yourself put in your vote at a more scummy timing after the wagon had already started (giving Cubu a 3-2 lead vs Kville). 2. They both were sceptical of WeeTee? At least half the players were sceptical about WeeTee and for good reasons (at least at that point in the game). You think they're scummy because they didn't have the same pre-game read as you? On September 05 2012 18:12 JacobStrangelove wrote: No you have that completly wrong, I was more thinking you would town lynch WeeTee and then bus or town lynch whoever town disliked most out of Stutters kville. I know I am pushing you but it's mainly so I have more information. You are the only one I can force to talk at the moment as kville and Stutters seem like hopless cases. Why wouldn't he just lynch Cubu? And how come you're so sure WeeTee is townie? Cliffnotes: Suspecting a Killing/Xatalos connection has no logical explanation. I will concede to the point that you're taking a risk with your Killing insinuations, I didn't realize you went after him this early. That’s the one read you’ve committed to since the start (aside from Cubu) but it makes no sense. If you actually went through his filter I find it weird those are your conclusions (explained above). I'm still wondering what motives you have. If you're scum you're playing good, because you give a serious fucking headache. I can't believe all the time I just wasted going throw your filter  | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 05 2012 13:02 kushm4sta wrote: Thrawn was like town leader and now he is gone. We need to do is come up with a plan for day 2 so we can as a town stay focused. We do NOT want to all be accusing different people. That is what mafia wants. We do not want to be discussing things that do not contribute to the scum hunt. Anyone have an idea for a day 2 town plan to help us? In the next post I will discuss this recent drazak vote for me. I think it's a good idea to build a lot of cases today to get as much info as possible. We absolutely need to be more focused tomorrow and not all go vote on different people. Atm my top two lynching candidates are: Stutters Xatalos Jacob is just too damn confusing for me to want lynch right now, but among the more active posters he's my highest suspect. Imcasey has shown some good signs in his posting and I'm willing to give him a pass for now. Kville just made his first reasonable post, as ridiculous as it may seem it might be enough to get him through to d3. He still really needs to post more/better. | ||
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imcasey
Norway17 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
I had given up the hope that kville would start contributing, but now he appears with a somewhat sensible post. The problem is, the tone of that post is very different from before. Earlier he was reckless and random, but now he's suddenly very careful and subtle. He calls me "a bit suspicious" based on my streaks of activity (totally out of my control) and asking for him to be Vigi shot (which still seems like the best course of action). It's certainly better than nothing, but a very slight suspicion - and adding nothing else to the discussion - this late in the game made me rethink my read on him. Especially this inconsistency between his old and current posting style makes him a big Mafia suspect in my eyes. Stutters695 has kind of flied under the radar all game. He's been willing to "consolidate" (=bandwagon) on both Cubu and kville, both weak players - no danger of getting into a dangerous argument and thus getting too much attention. Definitely a suspicious lurker. He's a good lynch, but so are imcasey and kville. I'm willing to lynch any of these three players, and I don't have a real favorite right now. I'll have to decide if imcasey actually is the best lynch among them, since they are all almost equally suspicious and imcasey just feels a bit more suspect (based on WeeTee's seriously suspicious approach of giving only neutral and slight town reads behind fluffy walls of text). I don't think I've ever said that WeeTee was much more likely Mafia than Stutters695? They've seemed somewhat equally scummy all this time, in my opinion. Where did this misunderstanding come from? KillingTime has played a pretty solid game so far, I think. I don't see any scummy posts in his filter, expect maybe the slightly fluffy first posts... But that's hardly worth mentioning at this point. Did that satisfy you, Jacob? I'll be reading filters and hopefully coming to some new findings before morning. | ||
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imcasey
Norway17 Posts
I dont understand why you are attacking me so much xatalos You are saying I don't think I've ever said that WeeTee was much more likely Mafia than Stutters695 some sentence later you are saying : imcasey just feels a bit more suspect (based on WeeTee's seriously suspicious approach of giving only neutral and slight town reads behind fluffy walls of text) Also looking trough your filter, your saying : It's so very easy to say things like "I'll post something useful closer to the deadline". As Mafia, it's the perfect situation: you can observe the thread and then start pushing someone who would have been lynched anyway looking at what you said in your last post : I'll be reading filters and hopefully coming to some new findings before morning. I think you played well, but you lost track of all your bluffing, i think you are mafia. | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
Sorry about the slow start d1 guys. Hopefully I can prove my town worth today. Kville is interesting. His first helpful post comes 10 hours after the end of Normal Mini III where he was mislynched for nearly identical play to his start in this game. Assuming he keeps up this improved style of posting this means one of two things: 1) He realized that his playstyle previously loses games and has decided to make a more serious effort 2) He realized after how bad he'd played it would provide a perfect cover for scummy play in this game. There is some evidence for the latter. In III he was essentially a guaranteed lynch from the start of the last day onward. This would mean that he should have realized his bad play was hurting the town during Day 1, not partway into Day 2. His filter in Mini III also has fairly steady activity throughout each day with occasional cases Of course the simplest and most likely explanation is 1) and he simply realized we'd lose like this. So for Kville: Why did you have such a sudden change in posting style? Why should we believe you've turned a new leaf? Even when you were ignoring this game for the other game you were posting mostly spam but still working in cases. Here you've been lurking, even since the end of Mini III. Also why did you "vote" for imcasey at night? I'm assuming it was a joke but if that's the case of your 2 posts in the night period why would you waste one of them on a joke and then come in and defend the guy the next day? | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
And I think he is fitting his meta. Basically this guy believe that posting and making reads on d1 is useless, and he's bitter about being lynched for believing that. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
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BioSC
United States636 Posts
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
On September 06 2012 04:16 kushm4sta wrote: Thank you for that meta read on kville, Stutters! Fitting his meta doesn't make him automatically town, but I think it does remove suspicion for that suspicious behavior. I think it makes kville a null read. And I think he is fitting his meta. Basically this guy believe that posting and making reads on d1 is useless, and he's bitter about being lynched for believing that. Please note that this is not me saying he's unknown. This is me wanting answers to those questions in order to have a more solid read on him. If he doesn't answer or is only popping in the thread once a day still I will assume he's scum because he's shown that he isn't incompetent at this. | ||
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