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Alright fellow townies, one post before I go to bed, it's 3am over here.
Make sure to read the maffia guide thread if you haven't, it's really good. Try to make concise posts and think 'em through before posting, the last thing we need is added confusion.
We also need transparency, so try to contribute with at least one post per game day where you clearly explain your reasoning behind your most solid reads. If everyone does this, the mobsters will have to too.
And blue roles, with great power comes great responsibility, so please don't do stupid shit just because you can :p
Finally, keep in mind: if you're a vanilla townie, death by NK is a great honor and the best possible outcome for the group as a whole.
Goodnight and see ya tomorrow.
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Not only is a no-lynch bad, it's impossible. Read the rules.
Also, yeah, lynching active d1 posters is usually bad, especially in newbie games. Townies are usually a lot more comfortable with their role. Ime this leads the townies to post more and also say more stupid stuff. The town latches on to someone who said something stupid and we have a mislynch.
On the other hand mobsters are more careful with what they say because they don't want to slip up and get noticed. I'm mostly suspicious of semi-active posters who post nothing but fluff.
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On September 02 2012 19:08 Xatalos wrote:There are a couple of posts that caught my attention. Show nested quote +On September 02 2012 10:18 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Alright fellow townies, one post before I go to bed, it's 3am over here.
Make sure to read the maffia guide thread if you haven't, it's really good. Try to make concise posts and think 'em through before posting, the last thing we need is added confusion.
We also need transparency, so try to contribute with at least one post per game day where you clearly explain your reasoning behind your most solid reads. If everyone does this, the mobsters will have to too.
And blue roles, with great power comes great responsibility, so please don't do stupid shit just because you can :p
Finally, keep in mind: if you're a vanilla townie, death by NK is a great honor and the best possible outcome for the group as a whole.
Goodnight and see ya tomorrow. This post is extremely fluffy, even for the first post of the thread. Just look at the bolded part: there's nothing of value in all that. No opinions, no reasoning, no stances on anything... Nothing. Everything in this post screams classic Mafia pseudo-active "posting for the sake of posting".
Since this is a newbie game I think the basics needs to be pointed out asap before we move on. We just need to keep calm and make well thought-out posts, that way it'll be much more difficult for the scum to kick up shitstorms over nothing to get the town distracted. I've followed a few newbie games and the first couple of days the townies are usually too busy throwing around random accusations and lynching other townies to get any productive work going.
On September 02 2012 19:08 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2012 16:58 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Not only is a no-lynch bad, it's impossible. Read the rules.
Also, yeah, lynching active d1 posters is usually bad, especially in newbie games. Townies are usually a lot more comfortable with their role. Ime this leads the townies to post more and also say more stupid stuff. The town latches on to someone who said something stupid and we have a mislynch.
On the other hand mobsters are more careful with what they say because they don't want to slip up and get noticed. I'm mostly suspicious of semi-active posters who post nothing but fluff. The bolded part here is something I agree with, but on the other hand, it fits Sonic Death Monkey himself quite well... His filter seems like the most semi-active and fluffy at the moment. Sonic Death Monkey, do you see anyone more suspicious than yourself (by your own standards) right now? If so, who and why?
Fair enough. I think that description fits basically anyone within the first 10-20 post of the thread though. Once the discussion gets going, like it's starting to now, we'll see which posters are ducking and which ones are actually contributing.
As for your question, I think it's easier to find people standing out as likely townies at this point. In my experience, people engaging in discussions and poo-flinging early game are less likely to be scum. For this reason, I'll give some townie points to kush and thrawn. Thrawn also seems to be a productive and solid contributor. It'll be hard for him to keep up with that if he's really scum, so some extra townie points for him.
When it comes to scum, I'm really suspicious of people who just pop in to make a fluffy post and then disappear. For now, Kreb and KillingTime seems to fit that bill.
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For transparency, I think it's a good thing to for everyone to keep a list of suspects/non-suspects. This way we can hold people accountable for flip-flopping and actually demand some reasoning behind it. It'll also be easier to spot those key posts when later we'll be wading through tons of pages to do some background checks. Even though it's still early game and lots of information is yet to come, I think we might as well get this habit started now (reasoning in post above):
Townie:
thrawn
kush
Scum:
KillingTime
Kreb
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On September 02 2012 22:00 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2012 21:07 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:On September 02 2012 19:08 Xatalos wrote:There are a couple of posts that caught my attention. On September 02 2012 10:18 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Alright fellow townies, one post before I go to bed, it's 3am over here.
Make sure to read the maffia guide thread if you haven't, it's really good. Try to make concise posts and think 'em through before posting, the last thing we need is added confusion.
We also need transparency, so try to contribute with at least one post per game day where you clearly explain your reasoning behind your most solid reads. If everyone does this, the mobsters will have to too.
And blue roles, with great power comes great responsibility, so please don't do stupid shit just because you can :p
Finally, keep in mind: if you're a vanilla townie, death by NK is a great honor and the best possible outcome for the group as a whole.
Goodnight and see ya tomorrow. This post is extremely fluffy, even for the first post of the thread. Just look at the bolded part: there's nothing of value in all that. No opinions, no reasoning, no stances on anything... Nothing. Everything in this post screams classic Mafia pseudo-active "posting for the sake of posting". Since this is a newbie game I think the basics needs to be pointed out asap before we move on. We just need to keep calm and make well thought-out posts, that way it'll be much more difficult for the scum to kick up shitstorms over nothing to get the town distracted. I've followed a few newbie games and the first couple of days the townies are usually too busy throwing around random accusations and lynching other townies to get any productive work going. On September 02 2012 19:08 Xatalos wrote:On September 02 2012 16:58 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Not only is a no-lynch bad, it's impossible. Read the rules.
Also, yeah, lynching active d1 posters is usually bad, especially in newbie games. Townies are usually a lot more comfortable with their role. Ime this leads the townies to post more and also say more stupid stuff. The town latches on to someone who said something stupid and we have a mislynch.
On the other hand mobsters are more careful with what they say because they don't want to slip up and get noticed. I'm mostly suspicious of semi-active posters who post nothing but fluff. The bolded part here is something I agree with, but on the other hand, it fits Sonic Death Monkey himself quite well... His filter seems like the most semi-active and fluffy at the moment. Sonic Death Monkey, do you see anyone more suspicious than yourself (by your own standards) right now? If so, who and why? Fair enough. I think that description fits basically anyone within the first 10-20 post of the thread though. Once the discussion gets going, like it's starting to now, we'll see which posters are ducking and which ones are actually contributing. As for your question, I think it's easier to find people standing out as likely townies at this point. In my experience, people engaging in discussions and poo-flinging early game are less likely to be scum. For this reason, I'll give some townie points to kush and thrawn. Thrawn also seems to be a productive and solid contributor. It'll be hard for him to keep up with that if he's really scum, so some extra townie points for him. When it comes to scum, I'm really suspicious of people who just pop in to make a fluffy post and then disappear. For now, Kreb and KillingTime seems to fit that bill. It's good to see some content from you (I agree with your point about thrawn2112), but the bolded part here is just... weak. Okay, Kreb and KillingTime have done basically nothing so far. But the same applies to Cubu, WeeTee and drazak. Why do you think Kreb and KillingTime are scummy but players like Cubu, WeeTee or drazak are not? Show some reasoning, not just a basic statement. (As a sidenote, the above mentioned lurkers + Kville should really start posting some more, or it's going to be much more difficult to identify the Mafia lurkers.)
I agree it's weak, that's why I said: "I think it's easier to find people standing out as likely townies at this point". I think the reasoning behind it is solid, but this early information is obviously limited. If nothing else, putting a little bit of heat on them might induce them to contribute more.
The reason I didn't include Cubu and drazak is because both their two first post are the kind of flimsy first couple of post I expect from comfortable townies (particularly Cubu's). TeeWee just entered the thread with the mother of all fluffy posts, so he'll be on the list as well.
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On September 02 2012 23:09 KillingTime wrote:
When we call for an “active” thread - I think what we mean is players making logical cases and then responding to them.
Here are my current reads so far. I would consider them weak ( esp as we have players who have hardly/not posted yet), but if they are not addressed in later play then I will be concerned - :
Scummy:
SonicDeathMonkey: I appreciate your efforts to keep the thread ordered and moving along. But, that is a nice null read at best. Your posting reads too much like scum trying to push others along without much substantive play in the hope that it will create a nice wagon to jump on or an outspoken townie you can target. You must stop trying to play threadcop and post some original reads with better reasoning.
JacobStrangelove: Almost every post in your filter thus far is wishy washy and lacking in any content - your conclusion on lynching lurkers? It comes down to instinct. On nolynch day one: You disagree(only acceptable response to that dumb question) - but do “know what you mean”. On my first post? “Maybe it was pointless.. but on the flip side”. You have managed to be active without any content on even the most innocuous of debates - scummy until you get more involved with the thread.
WeeTee - I agree with thrawn that only a fluffy first post, is now hard to justify now that there has been some discussion. Needs to follow up with a better second post. Weetee can stand in for anyone else who has not posted as well, at this point we have enough of a thread that just a fluff post is not a good entrance.
Towny:
thrawn
Xatalos
Both have posted good content, logically reasoned.
Unsure:
Kushm4sta’s posting so far confuses me. I need to think about them more/see what else he posts before I develop any kind of read.
Fluff:
- I have never watched the TV show the flavour for this game is based on - so please don’t make any jokes and expect me to understand them.
As far as I can tell you've just latched on to my reads and reasonings for thrawn and WeeTee, I don't see why you'd accuse me of not having original reads.
Kush is acting too spazzy not to be considered townie. Throwing in a random vote early with really baseless accusations is not what scum will do. He's also in my townie list. When it comes to your reads on Xatalos I tend to agree, he goes in the same category as thrawn. You yourself provided a good follow up to your first post, I have no real reason to suspect you.
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On September 02 2012 23:59 Kreb wrote:
3) kushm4sta
Most information about so far. Two options:
A) Senseless accusations based on one post (my post) which agrees on the same thing everyone else already agreed on (I just agree like all others did, I couldnt imagine it would cause this to occur :p). Could mean hes "over-scumhunting" due to inexperience (if you believe in something you, unconsciously, look for confirmations to said belief and find "proofs" for it where there is none). Funnily enough, if A is the case, thats a slight/medium townread. It seems quite unlikely a mafia would come barking in like that with senseless accusations.
B) Is kinda playing with the rest of us trying to provoke discussions/force reactions by purposedly posting senseless accusations. Actually, I kinda like that. It creates discussion and forces opinions, which later can be checked back when we know more about who is/was mafia/town. Actually, I would argue provoking by random accusations is something a good player should probably have in his repertoire. And conversely, if B is true, the town read is gone and he could either be a townie looking for clues or a rather hardcore metaing mafia. Either way B likely means hes more of an asset as town and a more dangerous opponent as mafial.
---
Looking through his posting in previous Newbie mafia, I'd say it supports A over B. Town read remains.
Since I haven't been active in the maffia thread before I have no pre-game reads on people, but I definitely read kush's as an inexperienced townie.
- An inexperienced townie tends to often act spazzy because he knows he's townie and somehow underestimates the power of the imperfect information in this game. Once his spazzy actions leads to a bandwagon he becomes aware of how difficult it actually is to convince others of his innocence and stop the wagon.
- An inexperienced scum on the other hand is afraid of attention because he realizes the danger of a bandwagon. Since he has close to full information he feels guilty from the get go and wants to stay out of sticky situations.
Assuming players are capable of high level meta in newbie games will end up with disaster almost always. If kush actually was experienced his action would've been weird, as is I view them as clear cut townie. This is a clear cut situation where occam's razor is our friend.
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On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote:
I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.
3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.
So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0.
If that was the case, then Kville, TeeWee, dazark and you would be prime candidates. You're the ones flying under the radar atm.
The observations you make in this post are both obvious and have been covered earlier in the thread. It isn't very convincing and it makes you suspicious. I'm sorry if it's just due to inexperience, but if you want to contribute you need up your level of analysis. To update my list:
Townie:
kush
xatalos
thrawn
Scum:
teewee
cuba
Killer and Kreb dropped from suspect list due to solid contributions.
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On September 03 2012 00:44 Kreb wrote:Question to Sonic: Upon Xatalos calling you out a bit for not contributing, you reply with this: Show nested quote +Fair enough. I think that description fits basically anyone within the first 10-20 post of the thread though. Once the discussion gets going, like it's starting to now, we'll see which posters are ducking and which ones are actually contributing. (Personal opinion: I agree with you and wouldnt hold that against you, I think Xatalos was "over-scumhunting".) Then next post, you list me and KillingTime as scum for that very reason. Becaue we didnt contribute with our first two posts (which I agree we didnt). But the obvious question then: Why would you list two people as possible scum for the very same reason you used yourself to explain why your own posts werent full of contribution?
The reason was not so much the level of contribution (although that's a factor), but the fact that you just made one post and disappeared. Ime it's common for scum to make a post to make their presence known and then stay out of the thread expecting townies to start flinging poo at eachother (and it tends to work). Like I said, at that stage they were very loosely based accusation but if nothing else it might induce those people to start posting.
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On September 03 2012 02:19 Stutters695 wrote:
Regarding lists:
This might be just me, but I don't want lists posted throughout the game. It's an easy wall for scum to hide behind without explaining why they think what they do and without forcing them to ever commit.
Will have individual questions for people in a bit.
On September 03 2012 09:05 WeeTee wrote:sonic+ Show Spoiler +On September 02 2012 21:14 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
For transparency, I think it's a good thing to for everyone to keep a list of suspects/non-suspects. This way we can hold people accountable for flip-flopping and actually demand some reasoning behind it. It'll also be easier to spot those key posts when later we'll be wading through tons of pages to do some background checks. Even though it's still early game and lots of information is yet to come, I think we might as well get this habit started now (reasoning in post above):
Townie:
thrawn
kush
Scum:
KillingTime
Kreb You are the one with the lists that I refer to, still this is a null read because list are not a bad idea.
So what's the concensus on list-making? I was the one promoting lists in the first place, I thought it was a good idea. Stutter's point a valid but I feel like it's just as easy, if not easier, to hide behind a wall-of-text. Some wall-of-text posters (I'm looking at you Strangelove), seems post reads even on players he has no reads on. Not necessarily scummy, but it doesn't help us. If you have reads you think are good there's no reason to drown them out by filling your post out with "non-reads". I'll have to admit the list idea didn't pan out the way I had hoped though.
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I think at this point we need to start some wagons, we need them to start with some time left for EOD to be able to get some reactions and information to work with. More than one, because have 2-3 wagons will give us better opportunities to analyze voting patterns later. I think the best strategy is to wagon suspect lurkers to force reactions/info and adjust accordingly. I'm sure there are at least one scum among the more active posters but we can deal with active posters later. My take on the lurkers (Kville, Cubu, drazark, stutters, weetee):
Kville
Essentially hasn't posted anything. This is definitely suspect, but IF he is a townie who is just really busy starting a wagon won't force any reactions and thus he's not a good target for a wagon right now.
Cubu:
The weird spazz of this thread. A solid non-contributor. I tend to give the spazzes the benefit of the doubt. Let's look at his short posting history (highlighting points of interest):
+ Show Spoiler +On September 02 2012 11:02 Cubu wrote:
But how do you lynch that which you cannot see? On September 02 2012 11:04 Cubu wrote:
And it might be that they are busy doing something offline (school, work etc) so it's hard to judge whether they are lurking or just afk. On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote:
I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.
3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.
So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0. On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote:
guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers? On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote:
and its cubu, not cuba
This is a really bad defense on his part. His posts doesn't make any sense. He suspects scum to have a plan of lurking, while being a lurker himself, and he doesn't know if there's 3 or 4 scum in the game. But the thing is, when looking at his posting history, he has to be on some weird ass level for him to be scum. Let's apply occram's razor, newbie scum don't level. As I said before, lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational (see: stutters). He comes across more as a confused townie to me.
drazark:
Contributes little to nothing. Claims to have little time to post due to helping his father to move. I don't think making up excuses like that is something scum would do to avoid posting. They already tend to start out the game feeling kind of guilty, spending the first entire day building up an unnecessary lie isn't very scum-like. Not a strong read either direction, he just recently posted and hopefully he can contribute more shortly.
Stutters:
Only made one post in this thread. In it he adds little in terms of analysis and rationalizes that a low post count doesn't have to be scummy by using an old thread as "alibi", which in itself is weak argumentation. Along with his non-contribution I think he makes a good lynching candidate.
WeeTee:
Not willing to let him off the hook after making a fluffy intro post and then a list of suspects mostly re-hashing old information/reads from earlier in the thread. A decent candidate for lynching, but since he's shown signs of being willing to contribute more, he might be better to reevaluate later.
I personally favor a ##vote stutters wagon. I don't mind a cubu or weetee wagon to see how they react. Drazark would be fourth.
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On September 03 2012 15:24 JacobStrangelove wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2012 14:42 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:On September 03 2012 02:19 Stutters695 wrote:
Regarding lists:
This might be just me, but I don't want lists posted throughout the game. It's an easy wall for scum to hide behind without explaining why they think what they do and without forcing them to ever commit.
Will have individual questions for people in a bit. On September 03 2012 09:05 WeeTee wrote:sonic+ Show Spoiler +On September 02 2012 21:14 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
For transparency, I think it's a good thing to for everyone to keep a list of suspects/non-suspects. This way we can hold people accountable for flip-flopping and actually demand some reasoning behind it. It'll also be easier to spot those key posts when later we'll be wading through tons of pages to do some background checks. Even though it's still early game and lots of information is yet to come, I think we might as well get this habit started now (reasoning in post above):
Townie:
thrawn
kush
Scum:
KillingTime
Kreb You are the one with the lists that I refer to, still this is a null read because list are not a bad idea. So what's the concensus on list-making? I was the one promoting lists in the first place, I thought it was a good idea. Stutter's point a valid but I feel like it's just as easy, if not easier, to hide behind a wall-of-text. Some wall-of-text posters (I'm looking at you Strangelove), seems post reads even on players he has no reads on. Not necessarily scummy, but it doesn't help us. If you have reads you think are good there's no reason to drown them out by filling your post out with "non-reads". I'll have to admit the list idea didn't pan out the way I had hoped though. Hold on a second first I get accused of being wishy washy then when I change (as the game develops and more information comes out) I get accused of making lists then when I get told that is easy to do I change and I get accused of making walls of text? If I wasn't to write anything I would be accused of lurking... Everyone has a style they can hide behind, why not both. Have lists have walls of texts. (btw this is nowhere near the kind of walls of text I would normaly produce) I do like a little flavour in my posts... Also I did mention non reads incase people asked me about "what do you think of x person" This shouldn't be a reason for an accusation or suspicion. (see second last paragraph) It seems like I am getting set up for a day two or three lynch. My reasoning behind this is I seem to being baselessly accused in a by the by manner so when they get the opportunity people will remember me as someone suspicious. Also to Kush yeah Sonic I and Killing are actually fairly close in play style, this is probably why we don't trust each other at all. That said going out to uni will be back in several hours.
I still think you're wishy washy. Like I said, I don't think your posts are totally lacking content, I just think you're mixing in too much crap to make them easy to follow. I think it's your way of writing it's your way of writing. If someone specifically ask you for a read on someone (which isn't a very good question to begin with), go ahead and answer. Otherwise just focus on your valuable reads and don't drown them out.
I totally agree we have a similar playstyle. We're both starting from scratch and adjust probabilities accordingly (as a semi-pro poker player that approach is what comes natural to me). That's why I've been less suspect of you than a lot of others (you haven't seen me include you on any lists). The fact that KillingTime's post hasn't stood out to me lately makes me belive he might be in that same category. I think Kush is a bit more on the spazzy side.
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On September 03 2012 17:11 Stutters695 wrote:
[green]Are we allowed to reference people's activity on TL outside of the game (It wasn't allowed in XXIV is why I'm asking.)?
@Sonic Death Monkey
It wasn't an alibi. It was a direct example of a low post count not being immediately a scumtell. I should have been more clear about it though. A low post count doesn't indicate scum or innocence. It should warrant heavy scrutiny to determine the motives behind their posts. Especially if it comes down to a debate between lurkers.
Your post is exactly what I'm taking about with lists. If I was a scum I wouldn't put myself in a position to be lynched by posting once or twice than bouncing for a day when you guys make it so easy to hide without committing to anything. All I'd have to do is post a list of everyone and sheep on townish people and say well he hasn't posted a lot so I'm not sure but W,X,Y,Z are scummy for not posting very often and I'd be covered through a D1 lynch without having to explain anything.
That's both fair points. I don't see lists as inherently bad though, we just need to evaluate the reasoning posters give for their lists (lists or no lists seems like a non-issue as long as we do our job).
I do agree low post counts don't need to be incriminating, but like I said I found your reference to another thread as kind of weak argumentation. This post helps your first post to make more sense though, so my scum alert is waning. It'd still need nice if you were able to contribute more or else you come off as neutral at best, ducking at worst.
I'm at uni atm and won't be able to contribute much for another 7-8 hours. I'm liking the development with lurkers starting to contribute more, should give us better information for the lynch.
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On September 03 2012 18:47 kushm4sta wrote:
So it seems like the consensus is to lynch either cubu or kville. Anyone not feel this way?
Even if they aren't mafia they are solid policy lynches.
Now the question is which one.
Kville is the bigger lurker, but I think there is a higher possibility for cubu to actually be mafia.
Honestly cubu probably isn't mafia either, just because I think mafia would put more effort into their posts. Lynching one of these guys is better than lynching someone who is active though. So my vote is still on cubu.
No need to limit ourselves this early. Like I said before there are other decent option and we don't want too many to feel safe this early. If scum feel safe they're more likely to stay away from the thread and we gain no info.
On September 03 2012 19:01 kushm4sta wrote:
In response to all this conversation about lists:
I prefer more directed single accusations than lightly accusing a bunch of people at once. If a bunch of people really put the heat on someone and threaten him with a lynch, then shit starts to come out. But if you accuse someone with a few sentences, along with the 5 other people you are accusing, then the accused doesn't even really have to respond. Casting your net to wide is the metaphor.
Yes list making gives you a lot of insight into what people are thinking, but this is a double edged sword. If I have a slight suspicion of someone, I don't necessarily want to let them know that because that will only make them more careful.
Now I feel kind of sorry I made this a big deal, I didn't mean to. Lists or no lists doesn't matter much as long as we do our job and evaluate the reasoning posters provide. Right now I feel like the "list discussion" is just clogging up the thread and prevents more productive discussion so this will be my last comment on the list topic.
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On September 03 2012 19:20 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2012 19:01 kushm4sta wrote:
In response to all this conversation about lists:
I prefer more directed single accusations than lightly accusing a bunch of people at once. If a bunch of people really put the heat on someone and threaten him with a lynch, then shit starts to come out. But if you accuse someone with a few sentences, along with the 5 other people you are accusing, then the accused doesn't even really have to respond. Casting your net to wide is the metaphor.
Yes list making gives you a lot of insight into what people are thinking, but this is a double edged sword. If I have a slight suspicion of someone, I don't necessarily want to let them know that because that will only make them more careful. Yeah I don't like the lists. They cause town's focus to be too widespread which limits progress. If you have a read on somebody, and it's a read worth sharing, then it should take more than a couple sentences to justify. Making lists isn't scumhunting, it's fluff. You should be spending your time making accusations and questioning people instead of spitting out the status quo on each player. Gonna get my vote in next post
Gah, I can't resist... this will be the last one! I agree making a list including everyone in the game usually ends with fluff and they are pretty worthless. Lists should only include a few of the most solid and/or relevant reads + reasonings.
Now, I'm done. Everyone, lists or no lists, provide your reads clearly and concisely. Don't ramble about players you don't have any reads on.
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On September 04 2012 00:54 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote:
I kind of feel that a kville lynch would be similar to a kush lynch. We seem to agree that for a mafia to go out and make the d1 posts that kush did would be very gambley/spaz mafia play. Well, the same thing surely applies to Kville - I don't like the fact he is lurking like a submarine - but at this point, given how every active player has repeatedly stressed that they want town to be posting - the total refusal of kville to do that kind of makes me think there are better lynch targets (atleast for d1, d2 is a different story and kville is certainly going to need a good explanation and good d2 play if he does survive). I have similar feelings about a kville lynch: Show nested quote +On September 03 2012 20:54 thrawn2112 wrote:Actually the reason why I'm hesitant to consider voting kville is because I find it hard to believe that scum would only post once. He is an acceptable lynch candidate simply because we won't have lost anything at all worth keeping, but I don't have a scum read on him so that's why he's not my first vote. Also according to the replacement thread the host has asked for a replacement for this game, so I think that kville is just a town player who doesn't care and wants out.I'm going to unvote drazak because I'd rather lynch someone more lurky, and because he's done a better job at contributing than he did at the start of the game. Here are my thoughts on the proposed lurker lynch candidates: Cubu: Has expressed suspicion of drazak, and said he wants to lynch kville. I consider his vote for kville a bad idea, but he has at least given scumreads. Earlier someone said that Cubu's posting looks like that of a spazzy townie, which I agree with. WeeTee/Stutters: I'm putting these two together because they are the lurkiest except for kville. WeeTee hasn't offered any scum reads at all, nor has he questioned anyone on anything. Stutters' only contribution towards scumhunting was his comment on kville's strange behavior. Stutters's scumhunting efforts are close enough to none I might as well call it none. Between the two of them I think WeeTee has provided greater insight into his thoughts. Stutters hasn't even obliged us with his town reads, all he's done is talk about policy and his thoughts on lists. I want to lynch WeeTee or Stutters. Other than kville (who I'm not going to vote for because of the earlier reasons I gave) they are the lurkiest players. I can see WeeTee being town because his town meta during XXV was exactly how he's playing now, so I'm going to vote for stutters because of my WeeTee meta read and because stutters has shared less thoughts/reads out of the two.
Any reason you think that'd make him townie? At this point I think it's evident he's afk because town or maffia, he would've tried to defend himself by now. To me it pretty much makes him rand(), which still makes him a bad lynch because we want >rand() lynches and whether town or maffia lynching him gives us very little info. Not lynching him in hopes of him getting a sub seems like the obvious move.
I'm going to have to have to reread the last couple of pages but as of right now, I like my Stutter vote better than the alternatives.
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On September 04 2012 02:44 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 02:12 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:At this point I think it's evident he's afk because town or maffia, he would've tried to defend himself by now. Oh and I wouldn't say he's afk, he's been playing in another mafia game all this time. It could be some elaborate ruse as scum, but I think it's more likely he doesn't want to play in this game.
I don't believe it's an elaborate ruse for one second. But if he wants out, it seems like he's screwing over his sub whether he's town or maffia. For now it's a non-issue though, at least as long as people can agree not to lynch him.
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On September 04 2012 02:01 kushm4sta wrote:@thrawn Let me just say that was a very nice catch on kville getting replaced. Very sharp. We certainly shouldn't vote for him now. Drazak and Cuba should change their votes. I think the replacement issue makes him just a null read. So the drazak didn't work out for you? Now you aim your sights at Stutters. Stutters over Cuba makes ZERO sense to me.
He is not the ideal townie, but if you compare his filter to Cuba's, the difference is night and day. As town Stutters appears to be much more helpful, writing in depth and coherently. You are right he has offered no scum read yet. However he still has 8 hours and as he explained he is not a very active poster. On the other hand look at cuba's "scum read." It's more like a defense: you can't lynch him for lurking because kville is lurking way harder. And then he also accuses drazak... hmm that's interesting.. but I'll get to that next post. Show nested quote +On September 03 2012 14:01 Cubu wrote:
I'm kind of suspicious of drazak. He says his gonna post in a few hours but its been alot of hours since then and he hasn't posted. And why talk about the no-lynch? You can't no-lynch. There is nothing to discuss about it. And isn't it strange that of all the days, it's the first day of mafia that his dad happens to be moving out. Seems like a false excuse to me. Anyway his scumread of drazak is based on calling him out for lurker policy fluff, which is the same reason I suspected cuba in the first place. So his "scrumread," which apparently proves his innocence in your mind, is hypocritical, unfocused, and lacking of content. When you first accused drazak right after I accused cuba, you said Show nested quote +On September 03 2012 08:44 thrawn2112 wrote:
In regards to your vote... I think cubu is a good pick, but I'm also considering drazak for the same reasons I'm assuming you selected cubu. You weren't even mentioning stutters as a candidate back then, and nothing regarding him has changed. You said cuba was a good pick, so what happened??
Stutter's posts are still kind of pseudo-helpful. That's the kind of post I'd expect from scum, Cubu's ramblings are not. I feel like Stutter has had the chance to contribute with something better by now. I'm quoting my last post of reads for updates:
On September 03 2012 15:34 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:I think at this point we need to start some wagons, we need them to start with some time left for EOD to be able to get some reactions and information to work with. More than one, because have 2-3 wagons will give us better opportunities to analyze voting patterns later. I think the best strategy is to wagon suspect lurkers to force reactions/info and adjust accordingly. I'm sure there are at least one scum among the more active posters but we can deal with active posters later. My take on the lurkers (Kville, Cubu, drazark, stutters, weetee): KvilleEssentially hasn't posted anything. This is definitely suspect, but IF he is a townie who is just really busy starting a wagon won't force any reactions and thus he's not a good target for a wagon right now. Confirmed.Cubu:The weird spazz of this thread. A solid non-contributor. I tend to give the spazzes the benefit of the doubt. Let's look at his short posting history (highlighting points of interest): + Show Spoiler +On September 02 2012 11:02 Cubu wrote:
But how do you lynch that which you cannot see? On September 02 2012 11:04 Cubu wrote:
And it might be that they are busy doing something offline (school, work etc) so it's hard to judge whether they are lurking or just afk. On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote:
I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.
3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.
So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0. On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote:
guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers? On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote:
and its cubu, not cuba This is a really bad defense on his part. His posts doesn't make any sense. He suspects scum to have a plan of lurking, while being a lurker himself, and he doesn't know if there's 3 or 4 scum in the game. But the thing is, when looking at his posting history, he has to be on some weird ass level for him to be scum. Let's apply occram's razor, newbie scum don't level. As I said before, lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational (see: stutters). He comes across more as a confused townie to me. Contributes little to nothing. Claims to have little time to post due to helping his father to move. I don't think making up excuses like that is something scum would do to avoid posting. They already tend to start out the game feeling kind of guilty, spending the first entire day building up an unnecessary lie isn't very scum-like. Not a strong read either direction, he just recently posted and hopefully he can contribute more shortly. Responded with a long list, whether townie or scum not that's unexpected. Has become way more active, which makes him an easy pick for surviving to d2. I'm neutral as far as townie/scum read goes.Stutters:Only made one post in this thread. In it he adds little in terms of analysis and rationalizes that a low post count doesn't have to be scummy by using an old thread as "alibi", which in itself is weak argumentation. Along with his non-contribution I think he makes a good lynching candidate. Commented above.WeeTee:Not willing to let him off the hook after making a fluffy intro post and then a list of suspects mostly re-hashing old information/reads from earlier in the thread. A decent candidate for lynching, but since he's shown signs of being willing to contribute more, he might be better to reevaluate later. Made one post after I made my post. He's starting to come off as Cubu, whether town or maffia they come off as confused and are really bad at defending themselves. Our obvious problem is what to do with those players. Accept them as townies because they don't make much sense? Wait until tomorrow and hope they start making sense? For now it's an issue better dealt with tomorrow. WeeTee comes off as more suspect than Cubu though, because WeeTee being scum does not requier some elaborate level.I personally favor a ##vote stutters wagon. I don't mind a cubu or weetee wagon to see how they react. Drazark would be fourth. So I would now rank them Stutters > WeeTee > Cubu > Drazark. Although Cubu vs Drazark can go either way. The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
Over all putting the heat on lurkers has been kind of a disappointment. Tomorrow we really need to look more closely on active posters. I will be able to check back on this thread in a couple of hours again before going to bed.
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On September 04 2012 03:30 kushm4sta wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 03:13 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote:
guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers? On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote:
and its cubu, not cuba This is a really bad defense on his part. His posts doesn't make any sense. He suspects scum to have a plan of lurking, while being a lurker himself, and he doesn't know if there's 3 or 4 scum in the game. But the thing is, when looking at his posting history, he has to be on some weird ass level for him to be scum. Let's apply occram's razor, newbie scum don't level. As I said before, lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational (see: stutters). He comes across more as a confused townie to me. You are wrong to think that scum behavior is always this balance of good and bad townie. Everyone plays mafia differently. And I think you are also wrong to assume that for Cubu to be scum, he would have to be doing some high level mindgames. He's just new and not a good player. If he is town like you say he is, then he is bad, bad town. Wouldn't it also make sense then that as mafia he would be just as bad?
Bad townie acts differently to bad scum. I agree that an inexperienced scum who ends up in a sticky situation will react badly. However, inexperienced scum tends to be much more careful with what they say and thus are less likely to get into the sticky situation in the first place.
On September 03 2012 00:25 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
- An inexperienced townie tends to often act spazzy because he knows he's townie and somehow underestimates the power of the imperfect information in this game. Once his spazzy actions leads to a bandwagon he becomes aware of how difficult it actually is to convince others of his innocence and stop the wagon.
- An inexperienced scum on the other hand is afraid of attention because he realizes the danger of a bandwagon. Since he has close to full information he feels guilty from the get go and wants to stay out of sticky situations.
(this post was written in regards to your weird voting in the beginning of the thread, but the same applies for Cubu's behaviour)
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On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:Alright, a couple of thoughts. First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here?
This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
@Sonic Death Monkey
So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.
The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about:
1) Lynching lurkers.
2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy.
3) List-making.
You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy?
As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:You also say Show nested quote +The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum. If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.
Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
(As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all.
The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2.
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EPT
