On September 06 2012 09:43 Z-BosoN wrote:
So you are saying that even if he is somehow confirmed town, he still needs to die?
So you are saying that even if he is somehow confirmed town, he still needs to die?
yeah
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Toadesstern
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On September 06 2012 09:43 Z-BosoN wrote: Show nested quote + On September 06 2012 08:42 Toadesstern wrote: On September 06 2012 08:41 Bill Murray wrote: Regardless, Toad just majorly backtracked and EBWOPed because he called ottoxlol town and encouraged a vig... he's lying, and nervous about it, imo. I feel like he knows that ottoxlol would need a vig... toad has slipped up quite a bit, but i'm not 100% on him. no I did not backtrack. I said he's either mafia or he's town and in both cases he needs to die given the situation. So you are saying that even if he is somehow confirmed town, he still needs to die? yeah | ||
Toadesstern
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About DYH: On September 06 2012 10:08 DoYouHas wrote: @BC and Toad - I disagree. If Matt wasn't red then Hopeless' actions no longer are an attempt to divert a bandwagon on scum. At least half my case is showing that he did exactly that. If Matt was green then Hopeless' case on Forumite becomes far more innocuous. [...] That wasn't actually the reason I made a "?". You're case results in Matt being bussed by Hopeless1der and you said your case would be way weaker without Matt flipping red. The important part is not wether or not you think he got bussed (clearly he got bussed). The important part is your order of thought.
That is a mafia approach to make cases. Hopeless1der bussing Matt is the conclusion you should get from making a case. It never is the reason to make a case. You saying that your case only holds true with matt's red flip shows that you did the case the wrong way. | ||
Toadesstern
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On September 06 2012 11:11 DoYouHas wrote: Show nested quote + On September 06 2012 10:40 Toadesstern wrote: Screw this, got to wake my sis up in 2,5 hours anyway... might as well stay up those 2,5 hours and sleep afterwards :p About DYH: On September 06 2012 10:08 DoYouHas wrote: @BC and Toad - I disagree. If Matt wasn't red then Hopeless' actions no longer are an attempt to divert a bandwagon on scum. At least half my case is showing that he did exactly that. If Matt was green then Hopeless' case on Forumite becomes far more innocuous. [...] That wasn't actually the reason I made a "?". You're case results in Matt being bussed by Hopeless1der and you said your case would be way weaker without Matt flipping red. The important part is not wether or not you think he got bussed (clearly he got bussed). The important part is your order of thought.
That is a mafia approach to make cases. Hopeless1der bussing Matt is the conclusion you should get from making a case. It never is the reason to make a case. You saying that your case only holds true with matt's red flip shows that you did the case the wrong way. Except this isn't my thought process behind the case. It looks much more like this
2. If Matt is scum then I think it is likely someone from his team tried to divert the wagon while they had the chance (before Palmars post) 3. I find the person I think fits that the best. Hopeless does, and has been suspicious to me before. 4. I find that Hopeless also fits the mold for a lurky scum. 5. I find that Hopeless' voteswitch is suspicious. 6. I come to the conclusion that Hopeless bussed Mattchew, but only after indirectly stop the lynch. I started from the assumption that Matt was scum, which is why I thought that it was essential to my case. (BC disagrees) I created a profile for what I was looking for with scum, and Hopeless fit the best. - What part of my case made you think that I started with "You think Hopeless1der bussed Matt"? The way I see it you could construe any case on anyone who makes connections to Matt's alignment and voted Matt in the end (pretty much everyone) to be starting from the assumption that PlayerAccused bussed Matt. I'm curious what makes you bring it up. the fact that you explicitly mention, that Matt needed to flip red for your case to make sense. | ||
Toadesstern
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Toadesstern
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That being said I still (somewhat?) agree with the conclusion but I'll post shortly before deadline :p | ||
Toadesstern
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Toads very important thoughts mostly about VETs and whatever else I consider important so far I'm doing this post because I'm probably going to die tonight. I consider myself a vet and most people probably consider me a vet as well but unlike BC I usually don't draw protection from medics for two reasons I don't need to go into detail right now, although the reasoning becomes apparant after reading the whole thing :p First important topic: VETs in this game
That's my take on who's a vet in this game. A lot of people think it's hard to analyse vets to a point that they almost got a mental blockade when it comes to vets, that's why I'm going to post some about those 4/5 although I don't have anything major yet, though I've got a conclusion I'm quite comfortable with. First things first, I did this post (+ Show Spoiler [click me!] + On September 06 2012 07:40 Toadesstern wrote: Bam. Watcher on people like BC and me please. Mafia will want to hit that. I am an incredible controversial guy and a shitton of people are scared like crazy about me because I'm apparently unreadable according to them. I'm a little like BC-junior, or maybe WBG-junior in that regard because people tell me I'm looking pro-town no matter of alignment every single game. So usually I'm getting the same old crap about me every game "Toad is looking townish, but that's a null-tell because Toad always looks that way". Take AC for example, Radfield actually told his scumbuddies to just attack me for looking good because I'm always looking good. WBG called the play VE and I did in LI "the best bus TL has ever seen", he said I'm unreadable in PTP, I totally destroyed town in magic and surely everyone remembers the "Annul game" (sup palmer :p). Except for PyourPoison I destroyed pretty much every town I played against as mafia and every single game I was called a townie by the vast majority of the game while telling people what to do. That's the reason I'm getting these bullshit arguments like "Toad is unreadable" / "Toad is looking town but that means nothing" all the time. No matter if I'm town or mafia and frankly I was expecting to hear something like that from a mafia-player because it's an incredible easy approach to attack someone because you can just say that EVERY single game. Sadly it never happened. However I still ended up getting some reactions although they're minor ones. tl;dr / Summary so far:
That leaves us with Foru and DrH. DrH still feels odd although I can't put my finger on it. Foru feels way to cautios when he's posting. I'm almost certain one of those 2 got to be mafia and considering that my guts are telling me that foru feels cautios I'd rather bet on him being mafia by some degree. The thing about this is that it's not a clear case. What I've got about those 3 (BM / foru / drH) so far is very minor and not worth making a case about so I'm not going to. However process of elimination is a nice approach for those kind of people and that being said I really doubt BM or BC are mafia. People who are not vets but should be a topic Ottox: No need to talk about him I guess DoYouHas: He's looking bad when posting but I actually like his answers strongandbig: That guy should be scared as shit about me but he isn't. Not at all. To be precise he's even pretty buddy-ish with me. I think he knows I'm not mafia. Do not like. BroodKingEXE: Weirdest vote from d1. Other than that he's fine but the vote really looks like "let's scatter at least SOMEWHAT, just pretend you forgot to unvote BKE" If Ottox somehow manages to survive the night you've got to lynch him no matter what. It's actually quite possible that we've got vigs thinking "well we probably got a bunch of vigs who want to shoot him so I don't need to as well. No need to quadrupel-stack him". I've been in that situation as well and ended up shooting my #2 reads instead of my #1 reads (AC comes to mind ) because I thought someone else would take care of the #1 read anyways because the guy was pretty much confirmed mafia. Ottox definitly is the best lynch if he survives. BKE & S+B are mentioned because I want people to check their filter as well. I'm not set on lynching them yet but they're the best candidates I've got besides the "usual" ones. I'd rather not have people just forget about them. That being said I think it's quite likely I'm going to be dead in a couple of minutes so I'm posting this to give a couple of thoughts in case I'm not around any more. They're obviously all pretty vague because it's d1/n1 after all and thereforet it's just a summary. That means you've got to check filters yourself to understand what I'm talking about and wether or not you agree with me. Regretted not doing that in WoF when I was shot n1 as well ... Right now we're having quite a luxury problem though: We're having to many people doing cases about everyone and their dog. That's totally fine in itself but you guys need to make sure you got some focus tomorrow. Talking about a lot of people is fine but if everyone's like a little gonzaw we'll have 25 people screaming "NO MY CASE IS THE BEST" and mafia has an easy time to pick a fitting case out of the 15915815 existing ones and will push that one. So don't spam the thread too much. This post I just did is already a wall-of-text although I'm only scratching the surface of things when talking about stuff. So keep that in mind tomorrow. | ||
Toadesstern
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I'd also got a bunch of assumptions about the set-up now that we have seen not a single blue flip but the suicide bomber flipped. I guess not talking about that is best though. But all that makes me want to lynch Forumite even more and yeah I'd say he's the way to go for today considering that Ottox and Dr.H are dead. | ||
Toadesstern
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On September 07 2012 07:48 Forumite wrote: =( Toades, what do you want most, an answer to the case on me posted during the night, or my top scumreads. It´s late and I´m too tired to do both right now. I don't consider the case on you to be good and I don't agree with it. I want to lynch you because of method or elimination. So I'd rather see you talk about targets for today. | ||
Toadesstern
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Toadesstern
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On September 07 2012 07:37 grush57 wrote: Show nested quote + On September 07 2012 07:34 Hapahauli wrote: Shame a shot got wasted on Ottox. Oh well. ##Vote Miltonkram @ Grush On September 07 2012 07:31 grush57 wrote: Hmm, goodkarma suiciding on BC the vet I guess. Plus we got rid of Ottox so gj viggies Shouldn't you... uh... NOT be happy vigi shot a green role? Yea but it's better than just about any other townie. Better than say the vigi going crazy and shooting Toad or something. On September 07 2012 08:48 grush57 wrote: This is hard Town is REALLY active and good this game. Wouldn't mind lynching him either. first one: I agree, Ottox dead is good but I don't like the 2nd part. Why me? I'm your strongest townread? Or am I your most influential townread? The latter one would mean mafia agenda. second one: what did that post refer to? I'm not understanding what you're trying to say here and out of context saying "This is hard Town is REALLY active and good this game." sounds pretty contradictory. Like you're obviously happy that town is active and good this game (right?). If that's the case what's hard? Out of context it really sounds like you don't like town being active and good, neither does it sound like you're part of "town". So what's the meaning of that post? Anyways, see you tomorrow. | ||
Toadesstern
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On September 07 2012 19:18 strongandbig wrote: Show nested quote + On September 07 2012 06:59 Toadesstern wrote: strongandbig: That guy should be scared as shit about me but he isn't. Not at all. To be precise he's even pretty buddy-ish with me. I think he knows I'm not mafia. Do not like. [snip] Ottox definitly is the best lynch if he survives. BKE & S+B are mentioned because I want people to check their filter as well. I'm not set on lynching them yet but they're the best candidates I've got besides the "usual" ones. I'd rather not have people just forget about them. So why should I in particular be scared of you in particular? Is it because I should be quivering in fear of your particularly stellar scumplay? Cause something about the ridiculous way you died last game makes you seem a lot less scary, as irrational as that is. Now, I'm not sure how you think I'm buddying you. Unless you mean the "we're the only ones in the thread" thing - I see game-related buddying like 'ooh your reads are right on yeah way to lead the town' as being a lot scummier than 'hey man sup in the thread at this european hour or whatever', but whatever. I was actually just going to ignore this whole thing because there's really not much for me to say about it ("you're buddying me! No I'm not! Yes you are!" doesn't really help anything), but it made me think a bit about you this game vs last game, and I wanted to ask something. Show nested quote + On August 22 2012 03:25 Toadesstern wrote: On August 22 2012 03:19 HiroPro wrote: On August 22 2012 03:13 Toadesstern wrote: On August 22 2012 03:06 HiroPro wrote: Hi toad. Why is your vote on someone who's not going to be lynched today? Why have you not talked about any of the actual cases that have been brought up recently? Because I'm still undecided so far. I'm just don't really like lynching people I never played with before d1 in general so I don't talk about imallinson at all because I want to have more time to get a proper read on him because I don't know what's "normal" for him and what's not. I'm sure you'll find my opinion on every other guy that has been mentioned so far as I actually played with most of the people in this game before. Call a name and I'll copy & paste the quotes but I'm sure you could just search for it yourself. Am I posting too much so that I'm like gonzaw or are you not reading my posts? You haven't said anything about Dirkzor either. I know you've played with Zeph before, VE has brought a case. I guess I just ninja'ed you. Not much of an opinion on Dirkzor right now. He's one of the guys I'd rather have a look at day-2 or day-3. Same goes for Zeph. Last game I wanted to lynch him because I found a couple of posts that read like scumslips to me and he ended up flipping mafia. So pretty much the same as Dirkzor: Rather leave him alive and check out d2 or d3. If he's mafia he'll slip soon enough. I'm really in favor of lynching vets d1 in general. That's why you'll mostly find me comment on those people because I feel more comfortable judging them even with fewer amounts of posts. This is from last game - this game, instead it's Show nested quote + On September 07 2012 03:58 Toadesstern wrote: I really don't like the cases on forumite (or vets in general this game) as they're incredibly far-fetched, which is obvious considering the fact that we're still on d1/n1. That being said I still (somewhat?) agree with the conclusion but I'll post shortly before deadline :p What changed? And don't say your alignment, from how highly you talk of your own scum play I know you wouldn't be doing something as simple as coming down on different sides of a policy question as scum vs town. Now in terms of your process of elimination thing - the obvious biggest problem with that is that it assumes you're town. You've done this before, like when we were playing in mtg mafia. You even actually came right out when the last vet was dead other than you and said "but why would I say that as scum, it's setting myself up to be lynched later." That argument worked that time, but it also taught me to watch you when you start talking about vet balance. That said, I think forumite is looking scummier than you are atm. I still really don't like his "don't use meta on vets" comment, and I don't think that's been addressed since I brought it up last time Yeah I think the same person is looking bad as you do even though you just accused me of buddying you, deal with it. Quite in a hurry so I'll answer really quick: You played the magic game as well didn't you? And yeah I still think I played good in PTP although that game is still ongoing. So yeah I just really thought you're going to play a little more like WBG did in PTP. Not much has changed. We had Matt claim mafia d1. Do you want me to get in the thread yelling "HERPA DERP BUT I WANT TO LYNCH A VET INSTEAD"? We had the perfect lynch d1. He also might be a vet depending on who's judging so I don't see the problem. Probably within the top8 skillwise or something like that this game. So on top of the slip he actually fit perfectly. And don't give me the "what? he slipped like a newbie, how is he good?" bullshit if someone is going to talk about this :p About the "I don't like the cases on foru / vets so far". I said I don't like the cases and the very first thing I said this cycle was that I'd like to lynch Foru. I don't like the cases on Foru because I think they're done poorly, not because I think we should lynch someone else. Pretty sure I said something along the lines of "I dislike the cases on Foru although I agree with the conclusion". So again I don't really see the problem. | ||
Toadesstern
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On September 08 2012 01:31 slOosh wrote: Psh, what's most damning about Maverick is the fact that he has scum reads Forumite and DYH, and agrees with the case on BKEXE and yet for some reason waffles and ends up wanting to lynch a lurker. Good followup lynch. exactly this. If I were a multi-shot dayvig there would have been a crazy amount of dead people by now because we've got a shitton of people posting stuff like what you just mentioned. We've got a complete luxury problem today as we have way too many good lynches we could go for and too many people posting cases about everyone and their dog. The issue we have today is not wether or not we got a good lynch today, the issue we've got is which one's the best out of all those weird guys posting like "well maybe we should just lynch a random lurker today instead" because clearly not everyone can end up being mafia. | ||
Toadesstern
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On September 08 2012 02:13 Maverick32x wrote: I honestly have no problem voting BKE. I thought I was clear with reason I voted for Shiao... I wanted him to post... And look!! He's had more posts after be called out than all game! Also yes- I'm considering more than one person as scummy or pointing out odd behaviors... that's really not the issue here. If someone who I know to be decent would have posted On September 07 2012 13:12 Maverick32x wrote: @DoYouHas- Solid defense, and you're right- I was probably tunneling too hard on filters. I still think the reliance on 'Meta' is not a reliable way to contribute to THIS game... @Forumite- I guess we have different perspectives when it comes to scum hunting? The majority of players are town.. so wouldn't it be smarter to do some 'innocent until proven guilty'? As opposed to just blasting everyone because everyone else is doing it? All this being said- I'm wondering if we should just lynch a lurker? I feel like allowing scum to lurk is a bad plan? after saying that we've got a bunch of decent targets that'd be an insta-lynch for me. For some reason we've got crazy amounts of people posting like this in this game though, which makes it hard to figure out who's posting weird because he's mafia and who's posting weird because he's new. | ||
Toadesstern
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But I had almost no time today as friends came over so I'll have to reread things tomorrow. Haven't even read what happened the last 4 hours so far except for an incredible fast read. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On September 08 2012 07:17 Z-BosoN wrote: I'm going to leave the BKE thing on hold for now, until we hear what he has to say. If he says nothing and doesn't bother scumhunting and gracing us with his thoughts on the game, then my vote will be on him 100%. Meanwhile, I've done reading the post by Toad, and also took the time to read his filter from LI and what was the "best bus in TL history" he mentioned. Your post had a ton of stuff to read, and I have some issues and some doubts regarding it. Let's do this. First off, you post this: Show nested quote + On September 07 2012 03:58 Toadesstern wrote: I really don't like the cases on forumite (or vets in general this game) as they're incredibly far-fetched, which is obvious considering the fact that we're still on d1/n1. That being said I still (somewhat?) agree with the conclusion but I'll post shortly before deadline :p Can I ask, what conclusion do you agree with? Because the conclusion on the case against forumite is this: Show nested quote + Why does Matt flipping red imply that I'm red as well? Why can't I be continuing to hunt scum? I still think Forumite is scum. My case was not an effort to divert the thread, it was an attempt to focus it. I wasn't around to do so, and feel free to call me scum for not following through before, but wait and see, you'll run out of steam on that front in a moment. But that doesn't make sense with your "I don't like the case on forumite". Please do explain what conclusion you meant. Now, onward to your (seemingly classic) motherfuckin wall of text. Show nested quote + On September 07 2012 06:59 Toadesstern wrote: Toads very important thoughts mostly about VETs and whatever else I consider important so far I'm doing this post because I'm probably going to die tonight. I consider myself a vet and most people probably consider me a vet as well but unlike BC I usually don't draw protection from medics for two reasons I don't need to go into detail right now, although the reasoning becomes apparant after reading the whole thing :p First important topic: VETs in this game
That's my take on who's a vet in this game. A lot of people think it's hard to analyse vets to a point that they almost got a mental blockade when it comes to vets, that's why I'm going to post some about those 4/5 although I don't have anything major yet, though I've got a conclusion I'm quite comfortable with. First things first, I did this post (+ Show Spoiler [click me!] + On September 06 2012 07:40 Toadesstern wrote: Bam. Watcher on people like BC and me please. Mafia will want to hit that. 1) Yes, why did you do that? Let's see. Right now I'm looking for an explanation as to why you wanted to hear what vets had to say regarding your town claim I am an incredible controversial guy and a shitton of people are scared like crazy about me because I'm apparently unreadable according to them. I'm a little like BC-junior, or maybe WBG-junior in that regard because people tell me I'm looking pro-town no matter of alignment every single game. So usually I'm getting the same old crap about me every game "Toad is looking townish, but that's a null-tell because Toad always looks that way". Take AC for example, Radfield actually told his scumbuddies to just attack me for looking good because I'm always looking good. WBG called the play VE and I did in LI "the best bus TL has ever seen", he said I'm unreadable in PTP, I totally destroyed town in magic and surely everyone remembers the "Annul game" (sup palmer :p). Except for PyourPoison I destroyed pretty much every town I played against as mafia and every single game I was called a townie by the vast majority of the game while telling people what to do. That's the reason I'm getting these bullshit arguments like "Toad is unreadable" / "Toad is looking town but that means nothing" all the time. No matter if I'm town or mafia and frankly I was expecting to hear something like that from a mafia-player because it's an incredible easy approach to attack someone because you can just say that EVERY single game. Sadly it never happened. However I still ended up getting some reactions although they're minor ones. 2*) So you are saying that you were expecting a vet to say you were unreadable etc. etc. and attack you based on it? i.e., had one of the four vets said anything in an aggressive manner, you would have pegged him as scum and attacked him later on? tl;dr / Summary so far:
That leaves us with Foru and DrH. DrH still feels odd although I can't put my finger on it. Foru feels way to cautios when he's posting. I'm almost certain one of those 2 got to be mafia and considering that my guts are telling me that foru feels cautios I'd rather bet on him being mafia by some degree. 3*) So you don't like the cases on foru, you don't say why AND even add that you don't like targeting vets (in the previous post), and your guts are telling you that you would bet on him being mafia despite shitting on the main case against him so far? This all due to your experience with him and your gut feelings? The thing about this is that it's not a clear case. What I've got about those 3 (BM / foru / drH) so far is very minor and not worth making a case about so I'm not going to. However process of elimination is a nice approach for those kind of people and that being said I really doubt BM or BC are mafia. 4*) Ok, this explains why you aren't making cases against them and is being consistent with your "let's not target vets" approach. Since this part of your post mainly deals with vets, I am to assume this pseudo-read on forumite is just a comparative between the vets and not actually a real go-through-with-it suspicion? 5**) Just to make it ultra-clear: Now that both DrH and BC are dead, do you think forumite/BM are mafia? People who are not vets but should be a topic Ottox: No need to talk about him I guess DoYouHas: He's looking bad when posting but I actually like his answers strongandbig: That guy should be scared as shit about me but he isn't. Not at all. To be precise he's even pretty buddy-ish with me. I think he knows I'm not mafia. Do not like. BroodKingEXE: Weirdest vote from d1. Other than that he's fine but the vote really looks like "let's scatter at least SOMEWHAT, just pretend you forgot to unvote BKE" If Ottox somehow manages to survive the night you've got to lynch him no matter what. It's actually quite possible that we've got vigs thinking "well we probably got a bunch of vigs who want to shoot him so I don't need to as well. No need to quadrupel-stack him". I've been in that situation as well and ended up shooting my #2 reads instead of my #1 reads (AC comes to mind ) because I thought someone else would take care of the #1 read anyways because the guy was pretty much confirmed mafia. Ottox definitly is the best lynch if he survives. BKE & S+B are mentioned because I want people to check their filter as well. I'm not set on lynching them yet but they're the best candidates I've got besides the "usual" ones. I'd rather not have people just forget about them. 6*) So now we've had a full case on BKE, and people are starting to sheep, what do you think on BKE? You mentioned him here as being fishy, and now I'm guessing you should be more than inclined to lynch him, yes? That being said I think it's quite likely I'm going to be dead in a couple of minutes so I'm posting this to give a couple of thoughts in case I'm not around any more. They're obviously all pretty vague because it's d1/n1 after all and thereforet it's just a summary. That means you've got to check filters yourself to understand what I'm talking about and wether or not you agree with me. Regretted not doing that in WoF when I was shot n1 as well ... Right now we're having quite a luxury problem though: We're having to many people doing cases about everyone and their dog. That's totally fine in itself but you guys need to make sure you got some focus tomorrow. Talking about a lot of people is fine but if everyone's like a little gonzaw we'll have 25 people screaming "NO MY CASE IS THE BEST" and mafia has an easy time to pick a fitting case out of the 15915815 existing ones and will push that one. So don't spam the thread too much. This post I just did is already a wall-of-text although I'm only scratching the surface of things when talking about stuff. So keep that in mind tomorrow. 7) LOL at you/gonzaw in LI. He was extremely paranoid... funny thing was he was correct Ok, so I've referenced the writings in red so you have an easier time answering. The quantity of asterisks in each number indicate how much I would like an answer from you. Btw, you sure have a high opinion of yourself. Also, I forgot to reference this, but since I do not want to change the whole numbering now, also, please answer this: 5.5*) Why should S&B be scared shitless of you? About the conclusion: I agree / agreed with the conclusion that Foru is mafia. Not sure what to make of him considering the most recent BKE posts though. 1 +2 ) Yeah. It was a "trap" if you want. I wanted to see whether they went for the easy way and just attack me with the usual "but toad is unreadable"-fear mongering or if they did not. Yeah I'd consider fear mongering a mafia trait when talking about vets, so yes I would have definitely attacked someone like Foru if he had done that. 3) I never said I don't want to target vets (I think?). I obviously didn't mess around with talking about something like that d1 because we had a confirmed mafia. What point would there be in lynching someone else. I considered the case on him weak because I didn't think what was mentioned (some specific points in the case, not everything but a bunch) was alignment indicating considering who we were talking about. I didn't get into detail with what I disagree about the case because I obviously want Foru to talk about it. Why would I want to defend him if I think he's mafia (for different reasons)? After all that's more chances for him to show poor performance, no matter if the case in question was decent or not to begin with. 4) Again, I'm okay with targeting vets I just haven't found anything that screams mafia at me when going through forus filter, yet I've got the feeling he is + I've got the feeling the rest of the vets are looking way better. Combine those two and I'm feeling quite good about lynching him in general. It's a question of who looks the worst and explaining why we should lynch foru is just hard to do right now. When we've got other people who I'd consider to be about equally scummy right now that's just not worth the fuss. Especially if my "feeling" on foru is so vague it's really going to be a pain in the ass to explain why I want him dead right now. 5) I'd say / I thought one of them will end up being mafia, yeah. But the most recent BKE talk is making me a little uncertain here. It's something with a lot of different things taking into consideration like meta, balance and whatever else so if people like BKE / S&B, who are good as well, are considered vets I might have to scratch that though. Given that I don't think very highly of those 2 right now I'm still trying to figure out what's the best target for today and wether or not that assumption from yesterday was correct or if I should forget it for the time being and just stick to "traditional" targets, aka the one we've got cases on. 5.5) I thought he's feeling quite alright about me before he did his most recent post, which I considered to be odd because he saw my most recent games as mafia. In PTP3 I played quite decently as mafia, he was in that game as well. In Magic I totally destroyed town on my own manipulating town. Same thing happened in the infamous Annul-game. I get that people who haven't played with me a lot don't know these things but like other vets he should know himself that I'm pretty decent as mafia. Basicly I expected him to go in this game with a bias (at least a little one) thinking I'm mafia no matter what given what the most recent games happened. I just didn't see that happening. 6) Yes as mentioned, it's quite a luxury problem we've got today: We've got a lot of good lynches. There's bound to be townies within those possible lynches and it's about who truely is the best for today. 7) Well not particually hard if you're in a 30 player game and you end up calling 100% of the vets mafia + 10 random other people. Surely you've got to be right about some :p | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On September 08 2012 07:37 Hapahauli wrote: @ Z-Boson - it's funny you bring Toadsstern up, because if it wasn't for the BKE slip I found, I probably would have made a case on Toad instead. That "goodbye" post looked so scummy to me, and I find things like this to be huge scumtells: Show nested quote + tl;dr / Summary so far:
That leaves us with Foru and DrH. DrH still feels odd although I can't put my finger on it. Foru feels way to cautios when he's posting. 1) Toad had been screaming that he's "town" throughout the day. This is pretty excessive considering there's very little reasoning why he should be considered town at all. 2) Toad says he's town, then gives a bunch of reads without any reasoning. Like read his goodbye post, then read the quoted selection. He never gives any reasoning for his reads. 3) If toad thinks he's going to get shot, why is he claiming town??? This is the most absurd thing ever. Anywho, I have a scumread on toad, but I want BKE lynched first Good stuff Z-Boson wat? Number 1 was already explained and I said I did that on purpose. Number 2 was already explained in the post itself as I said it's already quite a wall of text and I don't want to spam up the thread even more. I don't feel like posting way more cases right now either for that reason. We've got a bunch of cases and there's no need to spam more right now. Number 3 is supposed to mean what? I claimed town, so what? Think mafia is going to shoot me because they now know I'm town, which they knew before I "claimed" as well? It's not like I claimed a role. Claiming town makes no difference about whether or not I'm going to get shot. It's not like they're going to say to themselves "crap, that dude just claimed town, we've got to deal with him NOW". | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On September 08 2012 08:20 strongandbig wrote: Show nested quote + On September 08 2012 07:28 grush57 wrote: AWWW SHEEEEEEEEEET. I KNOW WHY TOAD CALLED ME SCUM I FORGOT STARSENSES. lol i was worried Show nested quote + On September 08 2012 06:52 Toadesstern wrote: grush is mafia. BKE's probably; if BKE's not mafia it's probably foru? But I had almost no time today as friends came over so I'll have to reread things tomorrow. Haven't even read what happened the last 4 hours so far except for an incredible fast read. toaaaaad why do you say grush is mafia? ps this is a serious question. grush is like by far the easiest rando free scumread to throw around. He's playing to serious to be town. When he's kidding around he's trying to look ballsy for the sake of looking ballsy rather than just looking weird like he does when he's town. For example the "just lynch me" post. Doesn't look like something I'm not yet allowed to talk about I guess | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On September 08 2012 08:34 Hapahauli wrote: Show nested quote + On September 08 2012 08:12 Toadesstern wrote: On September 08 2012 07:37 Hapahauli wrote: @ Z-Boson - it's funny you bring Toadsstern up, because if it wasn't for the BKE slip I found, I probably would have made a case on Toad instead. That "goodbye" post looked so scummy to me, and I find things like this to be huge scumtells: tl;dr / Summary so far:
That leaves us with Foru and DrH. DrH still feels odd although I can't put my finger on it. Foru feels way to cautios when he's posting. 1) Toad had been screaming that he's "town" throughout the day. This is pretty excessive considering there's very little reasoning why he should be considered town at all. 2) Toad says he's town, then gives a bunch of reads without any reasoning. Like read his goodbye post, then read the quoted selection. He never gives any reasoning for his reads. 3) If toad thinks he's going to get shot, why is he claiming town??? This is the most absurd thing ever. Anywho, I have a scumread on toad, but I want BKE lynched first Good stuff Z-Boson wat? Number 1 was already explained and I said I did that on purpose. 1 Number 2 was already explained in the post itself as I said it's already quite a wall of text and I don't want to spam up the thread even more. I don't feel like posting way more cases right now either for that reason. We've got a bunch of cases and there's no need to spam more right now. 2 Number 3 is supposed to mean what? I claimed town, so what? Think mafia is going to shoot me because they now know I'm town, which they knew before I "claimed" as well? It's not like I claimed a role. Claiming town makes no difference about whether or not I'm going to get shot. It's not like they're going to say to themselves "crap, that dude just claimed town, we've got to deal with him NOW".3 1: You said you did it on purpose, and it had already served its purpose. There was no reason for you to continue doing it after alerting the thread to your "ploy." However, this ties more in to my response in #3 2: The last thing you should be concerned about when making a "goodbye I'm going to get shot" post is spamming up the thread, especially when you believe you have critical information that could help the town. WTF is the point of pointing out your reads to other players in a goodbye post if you're not going to provide your rationale? 3: It's more of a scumtell that marvellosity described to me a while back. When someone's trying to tell you they're town and tell you a bunch of other people are suspicious/scummy/whatever (without reasoning to boot), they're likely mafia. But claiming town literally makes no sense in the context of the post. It's a goodbye post. There's no reason to claim town in a goodbye post. If you think you're going to get shot, why the fuck would you claim town? It's pretty goddamn self-evident. 1) Did I do it afterwards? I don't think I did o.O 2) As already mentioned it's was a combination of multiple reads and thoughts about meta that brought me to the conclusion. That kind of stuff is literally impossible to explain to other people. Either people agree with it or they don't, I even said I've got nothing special that screams mafia for a vet yet but the combination of a lot of little things make be think the way I do. 3) Well that's just wrong for 2 reasons:
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
From PTP3: On August 22 2012 10:57 grush57 wrote: Show nested quote + On August 22 2012 10:56 JingleHell wrote: Sorry my activity has been shit. My guts have been acting up, which has had me not interested in thinking much. Occupational hazard of crohn's. Anyways, I'm not comfortable with the people looking at VE because he's playing differently. He took a LOT of crap in Mad Men for his play, some based on meta. If a lot of people want him to play differently, and he's tired of being looked at the way he is, he might just try to play differently. I still like the idea of lynching Grush in absence of real reads, but maybe that's just a combination of me being vindictive and him being Grush. If we have a better target, obviously that would nullify it anyways. YOU DONT ANSWER FOR VE ACTIONS, VE DOES. vs this game: On September 04 2012 08:22 grush57 wrote: Show nested quote + On September 04 2012 08:20 BlackMamba24 wrote: On September 04 2012 08:09 DoYouHas wrote: Well, as per usual I like lynching lurkers day 1 if a scummier option doesn't present itself. Blues should do as they see fit. Discussion in that area only gives scum more points of reference for blue hunting. In the past L has assured me that this is always the correct course of action, sooo ##Vote: Bill Murray Why Bill Murray as opposed to any other lurker? Because he posted 20 minutes before the game started? I checked the thread 5 minutes before it started then went downstairs to do something else. I just don't see the point of voting this early when a scummier option is pretty much sure to present itself. Meek and apologetic tone, parroting posts other people have already made, etc. ##Vote DoYouHas That'll do for now. He's probably just pressuring him. Plus BM has a reputation. Bunch of serious, yet easy to do posts: + Show Spoiler [click me] + On September 04 2012 08:26 grush57 wrote: Show nested quote + On September 04 2012 08:24 Shady Sands wrote: On September 04 2012 08:20 slOosh wrote: On September 04 2012 08:02 Hapahauli wrote: On September 04 2012 07:56 slOosh wrote: Hapa, what is your idea of a town circle and how does it help us find / lynch / kill scum? Errr... well I wasn't planning on anyone taking that image seriously. I hate town circles. They're distracting to discussion and give people easy outs to "look" townie by "contributing" as opposed to scumhunting. I hate blue-oriented discussion in general really - it makes it easier for mafia to snipe blue roles by testing player reactions. Hell the idea of publicly determining blue actions is silly, considering it gives mafia the one information advantage that town has over mafia. Could you clarify what you mean by this point? Basically when someone goes and says "I got roleblocked" or "I was hit as a vet last night" scum now know something that previously only a townie knew. I don't think this is true all the time, as sometimes it's critical to get this info out to the rest of town, but I can see where Hapa is coming from NONONOONONO As town ALWAYS tell town if you got hit/roleblocked unless some weird setup or something. On September 04 2012 09:27 grush57 wrote: Show nested quote + On September 04 2012 08:30 Shady Sands wrote: On September 04 2012 08:26 grush57 wrote: On September 04 2012 08:24 Shady Sands wrote: On September 04 2012 08:20 slOosh wrote: On September 04 2012 08:02 Hapahauli wrote: On September 04 2012 07:56 slOosh wrote: Hapa, what is your idea of a town circle and how does it help us find / lynch / kill scum? Errr... well I wasn't planning on anyone taking that image seriously. I hate town circles. They're distracting to discussion and give people easy outs to "look" townie by "contributing" as opposed to scumhunting. I hate blue-oriented discussion in general really - it makes it easier for mafia to snipe blue roles by testing player reactions. Hell the idea of publicly determining blue actions is silly, considering it gives mafia the one information advantage that town has over mafia. Could you clarify what you mean by this point? Basically when someone goes and says "I got roleblocked" or "I was hit as a vet last night" scum now know something that previously only a townie knew. I don't think this is true all the time, as sometimes it's critical to get this info out to the rest of town, but I can see where Hapa is coming from NONONOONONO As town ALWAYS tell town if you got hit/roleblocked unless some weird setup or something. Why? Town needs all the information possible. Mafia will already know this information.If it was a blue vigi shot then the blue willl already know and they won't have to tell town without outing themselves. Mafia will know if there were vigi shots because they killed the other people. As if town-grush would ever say something like that. He's trying to look good saying something like that. Town-grush wouldn't even care about something like this. On September 05 2012 05:12 grush57 wrote: Well, looks like Mattchew slipped and all the noobs on his team are now scrambling. So.... ##Vote: Mattchew Miltonkram after this lynch?(Assuming that Mattchew flips scum which he will) Already setting up the next lynch without giving an explanation at all? On September 05 2012 05:16 grush57 wrote: And all of you new players as town you gotta make stances, lists of reads do jack shit. A lot of you are sounding scummy and probably just because you're new, but actually town. nothing, easy to do. Neither does he do that himself nor would town grush care for something like that On September 07 2012 09:31 grush57 wrote: So we're in good shape right now. I'll look through some people's filter tomorrow. as if lol Buddy-Buddy posts: + Show Spoiler [clicky me] + On September 06 2012 07:51 grush57 wrote: Show nested quote + On September 06 2012 07:47 Z-BosoN wrote: On September 06 2012 07:40 Toadesstern wrote: Bam. Watcher on people like BC and me please. Mafia will want to hit that. Why on earth do you think mafia would want to hit you? Towny vets. On September 06 2012 09:55 grush57 wrote: Show nested quote + On September 06 2012 09:54 BloodyC0bbler wrote: On September 06 2012 08:39 BloodyC0bbler wrote: On September 06 2012 07:17 Ottoxlol wrote: On September 06 2012 07:03 Bill Murray wrote: Ottox you care to make a top 3 scumread like I have? sorry to say you need vigged, but it'd be better if you would stop posting, or actually.. you know... do some work by reading filters and making logical cases ...wow this looks like coaching. I see... I see... maybe I should ease up on my suspicion of Forumite. Scum could easily just be playing the lurker game this game, but if that's the case, let 'em sit back while players like BC and Toad get confirmed. Toad is scum. Hapahauli confirmed my suspicions by his last post, he's purposely trying to skew the discussion. I think these two are defending their mates by not letting the Matt discussion go on -> the other 2 possibly are lurkers who voted on Matt with no real content. imallinson Z-BosoN Shady Sands DarthPunk ShiaoPi BlackMamba24 goodkarma all voted Matt after Palmar's announcment and provide little to no reasoning. Bad town or scum can easily be among them See I am not sure if anyone else caught this as I am still reading / catching up but no where in the OP does it tell me that I can see how many red's there are. As in town doesn't know how big the mafia team is. By telling us that happa + toad are defending matt and the other two are lurkers means you KNOW THERE ARE 5. So, I say we off you next. If Palmar said the exact scum team numbers somewhere I have missed I apologize for my outburst and will find other people to hang. For those who missed it the first time. He clearly states happa + toad are trying to defend their "mates" or in this case "mate" by trying to drop the matt discussion. This is 3 reds. He then states the other 2 mafia are lurkers who voted with no real content then generically lists a bunch of lurkers and DrH who has been one of the most active players in the game. But he told us 5. 2 defending 1 and then 2 in a group of lurkers. It wasn't I think there are two more or anything. he clearly outlines 2 defending their scumbuddy by shutting down conversation (lul as that wasnt the reason they argued with him) and 2 in lurkers. Guy outright mislabeled one of the most active players calling him a "lurker" and outed the mafia team # as 5. Burn him with fire. Damn BC you're on a roll, though that slip isn't 100% confirmed mafia but adding that with the other bs he said definitely scum. On September 07 2012 07:37 grush57 wrote: Show nested quote + On September 07 2012 07:34 Hapahauli wrote: Shame a shot got wasted on Ottox. Oh well. ##Vote Miltonkram @ Grush On September 07 2012 07:31 grush57 wrote: Hmm, goodkarma suiciding on BC the vet I guess. Plus we got rid of Ottox so gj viggies Shouldn't you... uh... NOT be happy vigi shot a green role? Yea but it's better than just about any other townie. Better than say the vigi going crazy and shooting Toad or something. Last but not least those 2 posts that don't really fit a special topic: On September 08 2012 07:12 grush57 wrote: Show nested quote + On September 08 2012 06:52 Toadesstern wrote: grush is mafia. BKE's probably; if BKE's not mafia it's probably foru? But I had almost no time today as friends came over so I'll have to reread things tomorrow. Haven't even read what happened the last 4 hours so far except for an incredible fast read. Kill me it will help the town I promise :D If someone tells me to lynch him the best thing to do usually is to lynch him. It's either trying to be manipulative and trying to appeal for emotions (in which case he's mafia) or he's given the game up (in which case he can be both) or he doesn't care about the game and is going to be anti-town no matter of alignment. I highly lean on the first one though. On September 07 2012 08:48 grush57 wrote: This is hard Town is REALLY active and good this game. Yeah I asked him about that and he answered but I can't stop but get the feeling that was supposed to be a post for a mafia QT lol. tl;dr So yeah I feel quite strongly about grush. He's hard to judge because he really doesn't seem to care about games and play anti-town no matter of alignment but that guy got to die. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
the semi seriousness is something that might be worth more considering meta but even on itself it's worth a lot because he's trying to look good for some reason. He's trying to look helpful when pointing stuff out like Town needs all the information possible. Town-Grush doesn't care about whether or not he's looking good. Mafia will already know this information.If it was a blue vigi shot then the blue willl already know and they won't have to tell town without outing themselves. Mafia will know if there were vigi shots because they killed the other people. The first 2 quotes (PTP3 vs something this game) is a complete contradiction. The bottom 2 quotes are looking as bad as it can possibly get and I would instalynch anyone saying something like that if it wasn't Grush. However, given the rest of his filter I'd say taking it into consideration isn't bad. | ||
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