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I read it and he's right you are. I doubt you'd be rolefishing so openly as mafia though.
Obviously a mafia would want to know whether the townie (assuming you are mafia and BM is town) is right or just found some bullshit to figure out if a kill is on *supposed to be blue* is needed or good. I'd say a mafia is going to read the filter or tell his buddies about it so that they read it (because people are lazy). Townies sadly end up rolefishing quite a lot in games because they think that will somehow improve their reads on someone or they think that everything somehow makes sense once you figured that out. So I'm not giving to much into you rolefishing although you are.
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On September 14 2012 21:49 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On September 14 2012 21:46 Toadesstern wrote: I read it and he's right you are. I doubt you'd be rolefishing so openly as mafia though.
Obviously a mafia would want to know whether the townie (assuming you are mafia and BM is town) is right or just found some bullshit to figure out if a kill is on *supposed to be blue* is needed or good. I'd say a mafia is going to read the filter or tell his buddies about it so that they read it (because people are lazy). Townies sadly end up rolefishing quite a lot in games because they think that will somehow improve their reads on someone or they think that everything somehow makes sense once you figured that out. So I'm not giving to much into you rolefishing although you are. Toad, how am I rolefishing? I've been pushing a Grav wagon for 20+ hours now, and BM said we shouldn't lynch Grav because he is blue. I went in and asked why he thought Grav was blue, because if BM doesn't give me any reasons why he thinks Grav is blue AKA not scum, then how can I persuade BM that Grav is scum?
Well that kind of is the definition of bluefishing. Let's assume BM really found something. You're trying to make him tell you what he found, so you can not only figure out whether or not he's right but also what kind of blue he is because a "blueslip" or whatever else made BM think he's blue is usually very specific. Sure claiming someone else is borderline retarded as well if you really think so but as this seemed to be a joke I don't care enough to get into details on that one.
I don't really see the problem here to be honest, which is the reason I didn't post about it until asked: Shady thinks Gravan is mafia BM thinks Shady slipped and accidently told people his buddy Gravan is mafia and not town.
Seems to me like we should lynch Gravan and decide wether or not that typo was a slip or just some bullshit later on.
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If someone says he thinks someone else is blue people should ignore him because he's either playing borderline anti-town himself, or he's mafia, or he's trolling for WHATEVER reason.
Curiosity is a bitch and gets in peoples way no matter of alignment though
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just a random mention: I'm not going to be around at deadline today and I'm going to miss quite some time as I'm going to leave 6 hours prior to deadline and won't be back in time.
So if there's someone having a fancy plan spill it out, I don't have all day and will keep my vote on Gravan unless something happens.
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taken directly from the votethread:
On September 15 2012 00:45 Quatol wrote: Vote Count:
Gravan (6) : imallinson, Shady Sands, slOosh, ShiaoPi, Toadesstern, Darth Punk Maverick32x (4) : strongandbig, Hopeless1der, grush57, Mementoss Shady Sands (2) : Gravan, Bill Murray ShiaoPi (1) : Maverick32x
Yet to vote: Rewok, Kreb
Currently Gravan is set to be lynched. 6 and a quarter hours to deadline!
What this tells me is mainly that I don't necessarily want to lynch into Mementoss or Mav today. That leaves us with Gravan or a voteswitch to Shady Sands from my point of view.
What it also tells me is that I really don't like any of you guys right now, which makes it quite hard for me and I'm getting paranoid as well, which probably is the reason why people get the "Toad is seemingly willing to lynch a bunch of people" feel today, because it really is that way. The people I'm not willing to lynch aren't on the "do not lynch"-list because I've got townreads on them at all. They're on that list for different reasons.
I'm gone in roughly two hours from the time of this post. If you want to say something, say it now. I am interested in hearing your thoughts about todays lynch. I don't mind if you repeat yourself and re-post cases or something like that. I want to know what people are doing right now.
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On September 15 2012 01:50 imallinson wrote: I find it interesting that the two top candidates for a lynch haven't voted for each other. This doesn't really make sense from a town perspective. If you are town you know 100% you are town and the same cannot be said for the other person. Surely in that case it is better for town to lynch the person you are not 100% sure is town. The only reason you wouldn't want to vote for the other person close to being lynched is if you were both scum. It's very unlikely at this point that shady or shiao are going to get lynched yet mav and gravan have their votes on them. it makes no sense no matter of alignment.
You usually don't want to be lynched no matter of alignment, as town because as you mentioned the other guy is at the max a 99% sure town, which still leaves a 1% chance to flip mafia while you're a 100% town. As mafia you want to survive because, therefore you want the other guy to die, therefore you vote him. If both are mafia you bus hardcore and make it look like it's only one of you two who is mafia while the other guy is town.
Yes it's not making sense at all. That's the point here.
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30 more minutes until I've got to leave. Shady Sands or Gravan?
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I'm going to stick with Gravan today I think, however feel free to disagree. This is the lynch I'm feeling the most uncertain about by far and I've no idea who's the best target for today.
There's multiple good choices for today and I highly doubt all of them are mafia, which kind of speaks for itself I guess... See you after the lynch, hopefully with a dead mafia.
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Sup am back and screw this might as well claim:
I'm a tracker. That's the reason I changed my reads sometimes a bit without much of explaining and there's some interesting stuff. First things first: Checks are in that order: There's a couple interesting parts here, the most interesting part certainly is the BM24 check because pretty much everyone assumes that he got bombed. I checked him n1. If he really was bombed I'd be dead. I'm not dead. That's the reason I wanted BKE dead so much after his claim of watching BC because I as well thought the bomber used his ability. That's not the case unless BKE lied and there's no reason for him to lie. What that means is that we've got a 2nd vig somewhere, possibly a town vig but it could also be a mafia vig. BC was killed by mafia KP BM24 was killed by mafia KP (most likely, could be the 2nd vig as well but I'd doubt that) GK was 100% killed by town vig Ottox was killed by either a town vig or a mafia vig who was scared of being tracked so that he could claim "town vig who shot Ottox like everyone said"
BM24 returned visting imallinson but that hardly matters as BM24 was a NN.
Btw some posts I did:
On September 07 2012 07:41 Toadesstern wrote: I'm actually looking suspicious considering BlackMamba24s flip I guess... I'd also got a bunch of assumptions about the set-up now that we have seen not a single blue flip but the suicide bomber flipped. I guess not talking about that is best though.
But all that makes me want to lynch Forumite even more and yeah I'd say he's the way to go for today considering that Ottox and Dr.H are dead. Also I said this one for a reason:
On September 13 2012 19:37 Toadesstern wrote:Oh I also don't think there's a medic. Should have probably told you about that earlier considering Z-bosons entire plan was based on being saved by the medic. Didn't think about that in time The reason we assumed there was a medic to begin with was that we thought a medic saved someone n1 because we thought there was KP missing. There was no KP missing therefore I said this, again the only way for this to be true is knowledge that the suicidebomber did not use his ability.
I never told you guys because telling you that would have required claiming and it was no important information. There could still be a medic out there for all I know, it's just not necessary as we suspected it to be earlier on. There was no reason to claim at all so I just ignored it. No Drawbacks from everyone thinking "well that probably means we've got a medic" (after all mafia shooting Assassin could be true as well, so the logic was flawed to begin with) No gains from telling people that I visited BM24 other than explaining why I wanted BKE dead so much (although I tried to make it sound reasonable because I didn't want to look like a blue). But I tried to get him lynched without claiming obviously. I would have claimed that day if we would have needed more votes on BKE,
Foru returned visiting noone and I had a mafia read on him. Which made it all a little hard but I was still convinced in my read, so I sticked with it
S&B also returned visiting noone. At that point I was kind of frustrated after the failure with Foru and left him be, wanted to check him today again to see if he was still visiting noone (VT) or ended up visiting someone (mafia). Again, same reasoning for BM24: I said I think he's Assassin because I didn't want him lynched before getting a 2nd track on him. With (probably) 3 mafia left there's only a 1/3 chance for him to be mafia if I consider my read to be right because 2 out of 3 mafias have to deliver a kill so I considered it quite likely that he's actually just a VT and my read was wrong. Saying I'd consider him to be mafia before the end of the night and changing it to a townread would have been weird and a blueslip, so I told people that I think he's an Assassin as a way out of it without looking to drastic of a change of mind because that would have been a blue-slip and I would have been killed. I did not want him to be lynched because of that. I called him Assassin as an intermediate stage to calling him town the next day if the track would have returned VT again. So yeah I was trying not to look like a blue.
Answering some things (it's 2:30 am, want to go to bed soon so it's only one, big post): + Show Spoiler [Shady Sands] +On September 15 2012 08:06 Shady Sands wrote:In light of the S&B flip, I think Toad is scum, because Toad has continually tried to paint S&B as an assassin. Based on this assassin read, Toad has used this as an excuse for himself to not pressure S&B or even mention him in the thread. + Show Spoiler [evidence] +On September 11 2012 01:21 Toadesstern wrote: Let's be honest here:
I think if we lynch into one of either Forumite, S&B, BM or Z-Boson we're going to hit "not-townie" all the way. That's the reason I didn't want to talk about S&B because I suspected him to be an Assassin (you're welcome \o/ ). If BM is Mafia Foru's got to be an Assassin (again, you're welcome \o/ ) and isn't actually mafia himself. Foru basicly claimed he's playing cautious on purpose so that fits the Assassin as well. Z-Boson and BM have some weird connection this day. I really don't like how Boson gets in here telling people BM is confirmed because of the blue thing, on top of that he instantly finds another breadcrumb BM apparently did and the knowledge BM had about austin is supposed to make him somehow town when there's no way mafia would have shot a vig n1, even if they knew about one.
So if you take them all apart I'd be all up for lynching Forumite today. If we're considering them as a whole I'd rather lynch Z-Boson. I mentioned S&B as well but as I said, he's probably Assassin so noone should care about him right now unless we see another 3rd party flip and he's still kicking. On September 13 2012 19:57 Toadesstern wrote: I said either BM or Foru are mafia later on. Something like d2, n2 or d3 I guess? So that one would be the more updated read on BM but not sure if that still holds. It was based on the "there has to be a mafia vet" assumption and forumite flipping green (=neither red nor black) pretty much destroyed that, or at least it now has an interesting twist to it: As far as I know we don't actually know whether we've got Assassins in this game or not. If we have some it's highly likely that BM and S&B are those Assassins because hosts don't usually give 3rd party roles to new guys because they're hard to play. If that's the case we obviously don't have a mafia within those 2. If we don't have Assassins to begin with we probably still have a mafia within those 2.
Not sure I want to take that gamble today. Then shortly before he leaves, he tries to narrow town's options to anyone but S&B. That's more than three times over the past 2 votecycles. During (and before) those 2 votecycles, Toad was pushing BKE, Z-Boson, and Forumite, all of whom flipped town or blue. Furthermore, look at who has questioned Toad over the game: BKE Hapa Z-Boson Notice a pattern? They're all dead. TLDR: Toad has soft-defended S&B for awhile, pushed three straight townies for lynches, and anyone who made substantive cases on him has been NK'd.
Now onto my post about S&B. I made that in the heat of the moment in my effort to get Gravan lynched. In retrospect, it looks scummy and stupid. That being said, I misread what S&B wrote about Gravan--I thought he was agreeing that Gravan was scum, when it is apparent now that S&B was actually soft-defending him. Since I thought at the time that Gravan was scum, anyone who came out before a lynch was inevitable on Gravan and made noises about lynching him earned town points in my book. Now that S&B has flipped scum, I retract that and I think Gravan is just a bad town who other scum tried to latch upon. Grav's behavior, in particular, over the past few hours has been very townie and returns my read on him to null. I have a few other players who look scummy to me: Rewok ShiaoPi Mementoss DarthPunk I'm going to be looking through their filters and will get something out before the daypost. Final note: in case this isn't obvious already, S&B lynch should serve as strong town-tells for Sloosh and Hopeless1der.
That's one big pile of bullshit. I explained why I said he's an assassin although you obviously couldn't know about that.
Then shortly before he leaves, he tries to narrow town's options to anyone but S&B. That's a lie, you even quoted it. I said I want Gravan or you lynched. That's not "anyone but S&B" although frankly speaking if you had asked I would have probably said anyone but S&B because of my VT read on him. But that's not the point, you're making something up. Why is that Shady Sands? I would understand it if you had said "anyone but Mav" because Mav, Gravan and you were the only 3 people who had votes, so I basicly said I don't want to lynch Mav. Why is "anyone but S&B" and not "anyone but Mav" when I say 30 more minutes until I've got to leave. Shady Sands or Gravan?
I was pushing BKE because I considered him a fakeclaimed, just like I considered Matt to be a fakeclaimer because I was fairly certain the suicide bomber used his ability at that time. I think everyone was and probably before my claim everyone in here still thought that's what happened. So you'll certainty agree that that consideration of mine made sense, don't you?
Furthermore, look at who has questioned Toad over the game:
BKE Hapa Z-Boson Are you mispresenting things on purpose?
- Forumite called me a townie but said that he's paranoid about town leaders so he said it could be possible I'm mafia. When lynching/pushing him I did not know about that change of mind ( I wouldn't even consider that a read because he just said he's paranoid while still thinking I'm town). So in reality if I'm mafia I pushed the guy who called me town all game long. That doesn't make sense and is the opposite of what you're trying to tell people.
- Z-Boson is the guy who called me a 97% Townie (or Assassin). Why should I shoot someone who tells people I'm 97% certain NOT MAFIA. Not only are you AGAIN telling the exact opposite of what happened but you're not even reading the game and I guess that's the reason why you're lying. Z-boson EXPLAINED he LIED and never considered me to be mafia. He LIED to see what would happen. He LIED to see if I how I'd answer. He LIED about me being mafia in the first place to see how I'd react and explained all that finishing in
On September 13 2012 07:00 Z-BosoN wrote:Important Conclusions If I die, then Toad is not Mafia, unless mafia took my bluff or thought I could get Toad lynched anyways, which I don't find likely. So, go with him being 97% town/assassin. So again, why are you lying saying the guy thought I'm mafia? Why are you misrepresenting the situation? Why are you not reading the thread. Btw the same happened today between BM and you and you're STILL to thick to understand what BM has posted and STILL haven't understood a word. Why should I shoot / lynch a guy as mafia who tells people I'm 97% confirmed town when I "successfully" figured out he's fakeclaiming and therefore only reactiontesting?
- Hapa is the only guy out of these 3 who actually attacked me AT ALL. The only one. Sorry I've got someone who attacked me and said it might be possible (he never actually made a case against me, just paranoia if I remember correctly?) that I'm mafia. Pretty sure if I search for people who attacked [b]YOU[b] and ended up being dead I'm going to find more than one guy in the entire game.
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wat?
On September 15 2012 07:18 strongandbig wrote: gg i guess
obs qt plz
apologies to my team for my lack of activity. working 11PM to 7AM really fucked with my head On September 15 2012 07:19 slOosh wrote: No hard feelings snb. Now to make a list to lynch into and win the game. That's kinda funny.
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anyways, now it's 3:30 am so I'm going to bed, see you tomorrow.
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On September 15 2012 18:32 Bill Murray wrote: toad's claim - really weirdly timed
mafia wouldn't wifom that, so he is up for lynch tomorrow, especially since his "track targets" are partially dead. I'm claiming because I'm still like 97% confirmed "Not-mafia" like Z-Boson explained and people for some reason consider me a possible lynch candidate. I'm claiming because it proves that I had no knowledge of the nightkills n1, which again, proves I'm not mafia. I'm claiming because I know there's a 2nd vig out there somewhere (unlike you) and if people keep on harping about how I am mafia because all the people who kept saying I'm town are dead by now (how in the world is that mafiatreat for me?). It's better to claim like this and possibly lose my role than to be shot by a vig at night because some idiot told him "duuude, toad is mafia because people said he's town!"
On September 15 2012 20:38 Kreb wrote:With a nights sleep and soem thinking I thought I'd try and update a bit on the situation as I see it. People I'd consider high priority voting target atm: Toad, Rewok and maaaybe BM too. Not gonna spend another big post on BM, but I'll spend one on Toad and Rewok respectively. Toad - Woah, theres too many little small things here I'd like to mention, but without a doubt the biggest one is his interactions with S&B and his continous assassin painting of him. But, as Ive explained before Ive been very paranoid about Toad. That probably means Ive thought a lot more about "Why would Toad want to write this here if he was mafia?" than Ive done with any other player. I'll just list a bunch of things I thought were very conviniently said, or things which happened which would be very convinient for a possible mafia-Toad (incoming overusage of the word convenient): 1) This post: + Show Spoiler +On September 07 2012 06:59 Toadesstern wrote:Toads very important thoughts mostly about VETs and whatever else I consider important so far I'm doing this post because I'm probably going to die tonight. I consider myself a vet and most people probably consider me a vet as well but unlike BC I usually don't draw protection from medics for two reasons I don't need to go into detail right now, although the reasoning becomes apparant after reading the whole thing :p First important topic: VETs in this game - Forumite
- BlackMamba24 (referred to as DrH from now on to not confuse him with BM)
- BloodyC0bbler
- Bill Murray
- Toadesstern/myself :p
That's my take on who's a vet in this game. A lot of people think it's hard to analyse vets to a point that they almost got a mental blockade when it comes to vets, that's why I'm going to post some about those 4/5 although I don't have anything major yet, though I've got a conclusion I'm quite comfortable with. First things first, I did this post ( + Show Spoiler [click me!] +On September 06 2012 07:40 Toadesstern wrote: Bam. Watcher on people like BC and me please.
Mafia will want to hit that. ) on purpose trying to get some reactions, mainly from vets. Simply put I was trying to rub a subtile "sup guys I'm comfirmed town now" into peoples faces to see what they're going to say. Why did I do that? I am an incredible controversial guy and a shitton of people are scared like crazy about me because I'm apparently unreadable according to them. I'm a little like BC-junior, or maybe WBG-junior in that regard because people tell me I'm looking pro-town no matter of alignment every single game. So usually I'm getting the same old crap about me every game "Toad is looking townish, but that's a null-tell because Toad always looks that way". Take AC for example, Radfield actually told his scumbuddies to just attack me for looking good because I'm always looking good. WBG called the play VE and I did in LI "the best bus TL has ever seen", he said I'm unreadable in PTP, I totally destroyed town in magic and surely everyone remembers the "Annul game" (sup palmer :p). Except for PyourPoison I destroyed pretty much every town I played against as mafia and every single game I was called a townie by the vast majority of the game while telling people what to do. That's the reason I'm getting these bullshit arguments like "Toad is unreadable" / "Toad is looking town but that means nothing" all the time. No matter if I'm town or mafia and frankly I was expecting to hear something like that from a mafia-player because it's an incredible easy approach to attack someone because you can just say that EVERY single game. Sadly it never happened. However I still ended up getting some reactions although they're minor ones. tl;dr / Summary so far:- I am town
- BC is pretty much town
- I highly lean on BM being town giving his style. He attacked me during this night for something he thought to be something. It obviously was nothing but his argument was not the typical "toad is unreadable, BE AFRAID GUYS" fear mongering I get all the time and I doubt a mafia would get in there attacking me the way he did.
That leaves us with Foru and DrH. DrH still feels odd although I can't put my finger on it. Foru feels way to cautios when he's posting. I'm almost certain one of those 2 got to be mafia and considering that my guts are telling me that foru feels cautios I'd rather bet on him being mafia by some degree. The thing about this is that it's not a clear case. What I've got about those 3 (BM / foru / drH) so far is very minor and not worth making a case about so I'm not going to. However process of elimination is a nice approach for those kind of people and that being said I really doubt BM or BC are mafia. People who are not vets but should be a topicOttox: No need to talk about him I guess DoYouHas: He's looking bad when posting but I actually like his answers strongandbig: That guy should be scared as shit about me but he isn't. Not at all. To be precise he's even pretty buddy-ish with me. I think he knows I'm not mafia. Do not like. BroodKingEXE: Weirdest vote from d1. Other than that he's fine but the vote really looks like "let's scatter at least SOMEWHAT, just pretend you forgot to unvote BKE" If Ottox somehow manages to survive the night you've got to lynch him no matter what. It's actually quite possible that we've got vigs thinking "well we probably got a bunch of vigs who want to shoot him so I don't need to as well. No need to quadrupel-stack him". I've been in that situation as well and ended up shooting my #2 reads instead of my #1 reads (AC comes to mind ) because I thought someone else would take care of the #1 read anyways because the guy was pretty much confirmed mafia. Ottox definitly is the best lynch if he survives. BKE & S+B are mentioned because I want people to check their filter as well. I'm not set on lynching them yet but they're the best candidates I've got besides the "usual" ones. I'd rather not have people just forget about them. That being said I think it's quite likely I'm going to be dead in a couple of minutes so I'm posting this to give a couple of thoughts in case I'm not around any more. They're obviously all pretty vague because it's d1/n1 after all and thereforet it's just a summary. That means you've got to check filters yourself to understand what I'm talking about and wether or not you agree with me. Regretted not doing that in WoF when I was shot n1 as well ...
Right now we're having quite a luxury problem though: We're having to many people doing cases about everyone and their dog. That's totally fine in itself but you guys need to make sure you got some focus tomorrow. Talking about a lot of people is fine but if everyone's like a little gonzaw we'll have 25 people screaming "NO MY CASE IS THE BEST" and mafia has an easy time to pick a fitting case out of the 15915815 existing ones and will push that one. So don't spam the thread too much. This post I just did is already a wall-of-text although I'm only scratching the surface of things when talking about stuff. So keep that in mind tomorrow. And in particular this part: Show nested quote +That's the reason I'm getting these bullshit arguments like "Toad is unreadable" / "Toad is looking town but that means nothing" all the time. No matter if I'm town or mafia and frankly I was expecting to hear something like that from a mafia-player because it's an incredible easy approach to attack someone because you can just say that EVERY single game. Sadly it never happened. That, to me, looks like pre-defending against the normal "Toad is unreadable" posts. Convenient to do for a mafia. No it's not convenient to do as mafia. It's a necessity to mention if you want to stop people posting bullshit like that. That's an early: Don't even think about posting something like that. If you want to attack me, attack me with arguments. I'll consider everyone who says "Toad is mafia because he is unreadable" to be mafia or derailing the thread on purpose. That's not an excuse, it's telling people to not post useless stuff that has no meaning to it but looks like contribution. Defending against "woah Toad is mafia because I'm paranoid" isn't even possible in the first place. If that's your argument it can't be early defending because there's no point to attack that "argument". I'm basicly telling people to not post fluff and instead post actual arguments.2) However, following that thoght, I think his post had a bit of a backlash. Remember me posting this: + Show Spoiler +On September 12 2012 22:50 Kreb wrote: But given the fact that he pretty much told us we should be paranoid as fuck about him (which I very much am) due to how supposedly good he was as mafia, I at least think we could demand a comment. As I said Im not suspicious, Im just paranoid. I trusted him for this lynch, that trust took a bit of a hit. Im wondering if I should renew the trust or not. And I also think I remember someone else also expressing paranoia about Toad, dont quote me on that though, not gonna read through everything to find a sentence about it. I might be wrong. But anyway, after that we saw Toad saying stuff like this: + Show Spoiler +On September 14 2012 04:58 Toadesstern wrote: Also this is nothing special. I'm awesome at playing mafia yet I'm only an average town-player. Mafia left me alive in *whatever the name was* although I was a modconfirmed town mason in that game. But again, a lot of people are paranoid about me, even if I end up being innocent-child-like confirmed. Not saying it's that strong this game but you've got to be really paranoid to consider me a mafia after what happened yesterday. I usually get shot either n1 or survive until lylo. Pretty much nothing inbetween exists in the history of Toad-games so far.
You should put your paranoia somewhere else. Maybe something good will come out of it if you target someone else. And this: Show nested quote +On September 14 2012 05:59 Toadesstern wrote: sure, I want to know wether or not my doubt is justified. For that to happen I need him to stop acting all paranoid about me. Very convenient to try and get rid of the fact that people have expressed paranoia about him. Well as mentioned. Paranoia is not an actual argument. What am I supposed to do about that besides saying "cool down a little, try and scumhunt elsewhere or at least give me some actual comments. What you're doing is pointless"?3) Him posting an extensive case on Forumite, but not really trying to push the wagon on it. He left that to other people (there was someone pointing this out, dont remember who, not gonna spend the time looking for that one phrase). Very convenient to plant the seed and let others do the hard work. That's just a lie. I was the guy who pushed Forumite the most. When people asked why we're lynching Forumite people referred to my case, people referred to "yeah let's sheep Toad". Fine if you think it's scummy to be wrong that would be one thing but saying I didn't push Forumite and made other people do the legwork is a straight up lie. Pretty sure if you asked people "who was the reason for Forus lynch?" everyone would have answered saying my name.4) Him compltely going "sit back and watch" style for the last night kill. He was very lightly discussing who to vote. We saw posts like these: Show nested quote +On September 13 2012 22:46 Toadesstern wrote: voting for Mementoss to get lynched seems like a good plan for today. Thoughts? Show nested quote +On September 14 2012 00:48 Toadesstern wrote: Yeah I'd be willing to lynch anyone out of Gravan, Mementoss and Mav today (so far). But I'm willing to sheep someone else today, for the good of town! Show nested quote +On September 15 2012 02:28 Toadesstern wrote: 30 more minutes until I've got to leave. Shady Sands or Gravan? Now these wouldnt have been all too strange if he hadnt been a lot more pushy in his previous cases. Now hes seemingly fine sitting back and enjoying the show. Very convenient. Now you're even admitting that you lied when talking about 3). if he hadnt been a lot more pushy in his previous cases I thought the reason I'm scummy is because I wasn't pushy at all when pushing Foru and made the other people do the legwork? You're contradicting yourself. You're saying when pushing foru I wasn't pushing hard enough therefore I'm mafia and when pushing foru I was pushing way harder than later on, which means I am mafia because I pushed foru so hard. That just doesn't make sense5) Also not how he switches people very fast in those quotes (MMToss -> Grav/MMToss/Mav -> SS/Grav. And he doesnt seem to keen on explaining why he is switching around all those names. Its like he doesnt have a will at all and just wants to follow. And I do think we can be pretty sure Toad has a will. I think I explained my reasoning pretty well and you're just like SS here, you apparently read the thread but haven't understood what was posted... The vote on MMToss (and the switches in stances) was to see how people would react. That's why I asked about how people feel when asking about specific people, because I wanted to know who's going to answer and how he's going to answer. Again here's what happened:- I started with (MMToss + Grav + Mav) as options, voted MMToss to see what's happening, concluded I don't want to lynch MMToss
- Left me with (Grav+Mav), picked Grav and liked voting him.
- At the end of the day I considered it unlikely that Mav was mafia, so I was left with Grav only
- The only guy besides Grav without (MMToss + Mav) who had votes at all was SS. That's why I concluded in saying SS/Grav
That's not switching reads at all. That's starting with a bunch and decreasing the number until I'm down with someone I like the most to be lynched. Yet you're only looking at the votes, not even reading the explanations I gave because frankly you haven't understood the situation at all6) Him coming into the thread with a "perfect" setup defense at 2.30 am when he (at least according to what he said) wasnt present at lynch time. Hmmm. It's "perfect" because it's the truth... way to confirmation bias. Of course it's simple to explain things if I have to just write what actually happened lol. Actually here's one thing about my mafia play everyone knows: I NEVER lie about anything unless I have to. I always leave the facts that are true as they are and just change my own alignment to fit the situation but I'm never lying about something like nightkills or something like that. If you consider me a mafia you also have to think that I lied when I claimed. Now why I breadcrumb something like a track on BM24 the guy who we (assuming I'm mafia) suicide bombed if I really was lying about my claim and that never happened to begin with? Why did I pick BM24 to breadcrum? The only guy it's impossible to breadcrumb about if I'm really a liar when I (unlike SS I think?) knew about the Suicidebomber and that it affects Trackers and Watchers + Show Spoiler [lookylooky] +On September 08 2012 23:37 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On September 08 2012 23:17 Toadesstern wrote: oh god, still mixed up... you know what I am talking about right?^^
BM can't be the target of the suicide bomber because if that'd be the case BKE would be dead by now as well, if his claim is legit. Therefore BC was targeted by the suicide bomber according to BKE and BM got shot by a single mafia hit, which is incredible weird. I thought Watcher wasn't affected by suicide bomber? Anyhow, if your interpretation of the rules is true, that just makes BKE's claim even less likely to be true. This just proves that I had no knowledge of the nightkills. If I had I would not have picked BM24 for two reasons: 1) The guy got shot by mafia. Why would I want to possibly tell people "dudes I visited the guy who got shot by mafia yesterday" 2) Why did I pick the guy who got suicidebombed (assuming I'm a liar/mafia) instead of someone that just makes sense? Again, that's from the n1 deadline.
And btw you can check the entirety of my mafia games. I'll ensure you won't find a single game in which I'm preparing breadcrumbs ahead of time as mafia because I'm way too lazy to do that.7) The claim itself, where he claims tracker (no other confirmed track so far, convenient) and how most of his reads are impossible/hard to confirm. Same thing as 4). That's confirmation bias. Obviously there's no other tracker so far because I'm a tracker. But you're saying the fact that there's no other tracker so far means I'm mafia who picked that on purpose. How is that the option but simply thinking "well, might be he IS a tracker" isn't an option? That's the worst kind of confirmation bias I've ever seen. Also Tracker is a bitch to claim. It's literally impossible to claim for mafia. For all I care you could tell me who to track today (one of the reasons I CLAIMED RIGHT NOW, to confirm myself), I'd do that and bam, there's no way for mafia to fake that. I either am a tracker or I'm dead. Why would I claim that as mafia? Why would you want to risk killing me if it's literally impossible to fakeclaim a tracker as "not-tracker" and time will tell whether or not I'm a tracker just fine8) Bringing back the same quote from before: Show nested quote +On September 14 2012 04:58 Toadesstern wrote: Also this is nothing special. I'm awesome at playing mafia yet I'm only an average town-player. Mafia left me alive in [i]*whatever the name was* although I was a modconfirmed town mason in that game. But again, a lot of people are paranoid about me, even if I end up being innocent-child-like confirmed. Not saying it's that strong this game but you've got to be really paranoid to consider me a mafia after what happened yesterday. I usually get shot either n1 or survive until lylo. Pretty much nothing inbetween exists in the history of Toad-games so far.
Now, he didnt say anything about his town-play in that big post he made early on where he explained his awesome mafia play. But he has certainly done a descent amount of talking about what vets are and that they are good at the game. Then hes suddenly claiming to be an average town player (when we should be asking ourselves why he isnt dead yet, especially since there was a quite unanimous view that he shouldnt get any protection last night). Very convenient to build yourself as an average player to stop such questions from popping up? Oh yes. Yeha, again someone who hasn't read the thread. Have you forgot there was someone who claimed to have a bomb on me? Because I'm pretty sure someone asked me that as well a couple of days ago and completly forgot about the Z-Boson claim: Z-Boson claimed to have a bomb on me. Mafia shot him because they thought he had a bomb on me. Why in the world should mafia place KP on me if they think there's a bomb on me? That's wasted. Of course I'm still alive. Also I did a good job of promoting the idea that we've got a medic while that was complete and utter bullshit. Mafia is dodging high priority targets, as can be seen when checking out the nightkills. They're afraid of medic protection and want to have safe kills rather than dead vets. BM is still alive, no one is bitching about him, are you?9) In light of his tracker claim, doesnt this come off as a bit odd? Show nested quote +On September 13 2012 05:30 Toadesstern wrote: So I propose this: Trackers go and track Z-Boson. If he's a Mad Hatter as he says he is and he genuinely believes me to be mafia he already has the bomb placed on me (as he just claimed) and therefore doesn't need to visit someone as he doesn't need to change the bomb and can just leave it on me. If that guy visits someone we've got ourselves a mafia :p Why would you try to direct trackers somewhere if you were a tracker? Why shouldn't I? Again, you're using confirmation bias to make me look like a mafia. You're saying "dude is a liar, therefore he is not a tracker, therefore this makes no sense" but if you look at it from another angle and just assume I'm not a liar for a second it makes perfect sense. If I'm a tracker I don't think it's likely there's more trackers in the game, maybe a 2nd but not a 3rd with a watcher already flipped. I said that to not look like a blue while being 70% certain it won't affect people at all because there's no 2nd tracker to begin with. It would have been troublesome if I had told anyone but trackers to be on Z-Boson because that would have been a serious request while saying something about trackers is a moot point because there's most likely no other trackers in this game and I don't influence people at al.And to remind you all: These are IN ADDITION to the constant assassin painting of S&B. I already explained that. If you had a VT check on your mafia read. What would you do? Get in the thread claiming "sup I'm a tracker and S&B did not visit anyone last night, therefore he's most likely a VT!" ? Of course not, you'd try to subtle implant the idea that you were wrong about S&B to not look like someone who changed his mind about S&B out of nowhere because he suddenly got some new information because that's a blueslip. Again, you're using confirmation bias to make me look bad.Paranoia or not, with the S&B flip I do think this looks a bit too fishy to leave alone.
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On September 15 2012 22:29 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2012 08:29 Kreb wrote: For now I have to agree on Toad with his continous attempts to paint S&B as an assassin does not look very well for him. If so, that makes his Z-Boson night kill rather ballsy, I guess he called the bluff. Scum has been pushing ballsy play all game long (Mattchew). Anyhow: If we are to believe Toad, then a townie vig somehow sniped GK.Hence my vote is going to stick on Toad unless a townie vig comes forward and claims for the GK nightkill. (Needless to say don't claim until after the Daypost.)
Translation: He's willing to put everything on a coinflip. If Austin was the vig who shot GK and a mafia-vig (or another town vig) shot Ottox he is going to vote me because there's no (possible) claim. If Austin wasn't the vig who shot GK he's willing to think about not voting me.
LoL
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On September 15 2012 23:19 Mementoss wrote: Toad you were clearly around for alot of the last lynch, you played the role of town leader for the first 3 days, why did you decide to be useless for the latest lynch and throw out a bunch of "I don't giva fuck who dies" type posts. You yourself even said there were too many people sheeping and lurking, and you do it yourself that whole day. Content to kill anyone that becomes popular to kill. I was still somewhat set on S&B and as mentioned wanted to track him a 2nd time. However I ended up calling him an Assassin to give myself the oppertunity to either go back to "nah think he's town" or "nah screw that, he's just mafia" depending on the 2nd check. If he had returned not visiting someone I would have ignored him for the time being. If it had returned visting someone dead I could have instantly pushed him without slipping as a blue that way because going from "think he's assassin" to "think he's mafia" isn't that big of a change.
When I said I'm the most uncertain about the lynch yesterday I wasn't kidding. I considered S&B to be suspicious but did not want to lynch him until I got my 2nd check back so I forced to go for a target I considered to be inferior. I had huge troubles deciding between Grav / SS / Mav / yourself at that time and ended up thinking Grav or SS are both decent lynches while you and Mav are probably not. Though that was a conclusion I considered to be weak. I didn't feel comfortable to push a lynch completly based on my gut read / reaction on how I think you or Mav would have react as mafia instead.
On September 10 2012 06:06 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2012 05:12 Z-BosoN wrote: [...]
What's nagging at me, is that you completely shat on hopeless1's case, saying you didn't like cases against vet's in general. Also, in his case, there are some parts where he mentions some of the things you did on his case against forumite. If you were inclined to think that forumite is scum, why didn't you give emphasis to some of those parts?
[...]
[...] About other Mafiareads:Not much right now. We've already got 2 flipped mafias and there're not going to be 191518696 more mafias in this game. I'm still standing by my point that either Grush or Shady has to be mafia. They're both giving me a hard time and everytime I want to get something going on Grush, Shady gets in the thread saying something that just screams "LYNCH ME" and vice verca. So I'm kind of having a hard time on those two. I'm still suspicious of S&B but I don't really want to go into details about him for a reason. That was probably the worst post I ever did. Quite funny noone considered that to be something except for one guy (don't know who it was) who considered it to be a mafiatreat (lol I wouldn't post like that as mafia) for not explaining. That's basicly the reason I backpaddled to Assassin because I was forced to explain it somehow. But as mentioned, backpaddling to Assassin was quite convenient as an intermediate step to whatever the the 2nd track would have made me think.
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On September 15 2012 23:36 Kreb wrote:@Toad 1&2: Had you been town, these are obviously nothing, and your reasoning is correct. But these two are kind of adding up to the whole picture to me. Alone, they are nothing. 3&4: Ok, my wording of you being "pushy" was probably bad wording on my part. And you focus heavily on me being contradictory (which, if you want to interpret the word pushy in the way you did, theres reason within your claim that I indeed was). But the fact still stands that the way you acted those two nights are very different. And the asking around what other people think (4) is to me very much not your style (see the sentences about will). That, you still havent attempted to explain. 5: Its still an awful lot of switching. And we have this: Show nested quote +I very much think he's scum. I like my vote on Mementoss better for the moment though. If only for the reason that I no longer want to lynch Mementoss first. It explains that you are willing to switch off MMToss, but it doesnt explain why you are willing to. Also, I dont see why you'd consider voting on SS unless you at least have an equal scumread on SS as you did on Gravan. If you did have such a scum read, you have explained why (again, why is the key word) you were willing to vote swtich. If you did not have that scum read, you shouldnt have considered SS at all and stayed on Gravan. 6: It was my weakest point probably. And quite frankly your reply to it doesnt really relate to my point six (and you cant really defend yourself against it either, since it was mostly just me going "it seems pretty strange he got that post together at that time so fast"). About what you said in the defense though: Nothing of what you claim you did would be impossible to do as mafia in preparation for later defense. And your point about what happened N1 (which as I said have nothing to do with my point 6) I have a bit of a hard time to relate to since I wasnt there at the time. And about you not planting breadcrumbs as mafia, thats a null-read from my PoV. If someone I trust as town can confirm it, I'll take it into account. 7: Agreed its confirmation bias. Not one of my better points. Just another one of those "this does fit a bit too well" moments. Maybe I shouldnt have mentioned 6 and 7, but as 1&2 neither of them are strong at all on their own, but together they make something, so I added them. And quite frankly I dont think you can defend yourself against 6 or 7 so you probably shouldnt bother. Blame my paranoia would make more sense (since if I'm all wrong in all of this, I will be the first to admit that my paranoia totally got me on the wrong track). 8: You totally didnt reply to my point at all. My point was about you painting yourself as average town player at a time when we should be asked why you arent dead (being vet and all). The timing of that was VERY telling and nothing you wrote relates to that at all. As for the Z-Boson situation (why is this on my point 8 lol?), you yourself said you're awesome as mafia. Would you really say you, supposing you are mafia, are unable to make the read Boson was bluffing and then call for the kill on him to clear you? As someone who claimed to be awesome as mafia, dont you agree you should be able to make that call? I have that faith in someone making such a claim at least. 9: Cant really reply to that one. I think its strange you tell where trackers should go when you're the tracker. You say you did it to not look blue. Thats possible. Up to everyone to decide whether they believe you or not I guess. Personally im very sceptical.
I'm going to answer the ones we disagree about. There's really no point in talking about 1,2,6,7,9 right?
3,4 ) Yeah it was different because I wasn't anywhere near as comfortable picking the right lynch as I was the day before that. However you're saying my actions in 3) are weird and therefore I'm scummy and my actions in 4) are weird, therefore I'm scummy while they're completely contradicting arguments. Let's put it this way: Yes I wasn't as pushy yesterday. If you consider that a scumtreat I can't really say something to that other than that I didn't feel comfortable deciding the lynch target myself as I had a very hard time distinguishing between those reads and figure out who's the best / word lynch imo. The reasons I didn't want MMToss and Mav lynched are all minor reactions I saw.
5) Pretty much my last sentence I just wrote The reasons I didn't want MMToss and Mav lynched are all minor reactions I saw. . I explained it a little but those things are awfully hard to explain. I'm pretty sure I said somewhere along the lines that I did not think MMtoss would attack me the way he did about Z-Bosons 97% confirmed post as mafia because mafia usually wants to end up being on the right side and saying "sup guys, Boson is right, Toad is totally town" is an easy way to get towncred for mafia (assuming I'm town, which I myself know to be true). Mav looked weird due to the voting tally I quoted. SS was simply the only guy who had votes besides Gravan if you exclude MMToss and Mav. I also think I mentioned Shady quite some time over the last couple of days as possible mafia and never retracted that at all.
8) You're kind of asking me "why did mafia not shoot you". How am I supposed to know that. I mentioned the Z-Boson situation because that's an easy explanation for one of the nights. The first night I obviously didn't get shot because they prioritised BC and BM24. Ever after that we had an awful lot of talk about a medic because everyone assumed there was one for sure, so as mentioned they probably tried to get safe kills rather than vet kills when they were already low on numbers after losing 2 mafias d1/n1. But again, I have no clue. How am I supposed to know why mafia did or did not shoot me. It's just a guess and I can't answer that question.
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On September 16 2012 00:17 Bill Murray wrote: Toad, in both scenarios, who are your reads for scum? I don't think it's 3 mafias left. I think Ottox and BC were right to assume 5 mafias.
You usually have 6 mafias in a 30 player game. 5 mafias makes perfect sense in a 25 (26) player game. Additionally we may or may not have Assassins.
If we don't have Assassins they don't interfere with that because they don't exist. If we have Assassins those are probably considered town favoring because they can soak up mafia KP and the only way to get killed is by lynch => they'll try not to get lynched while they don't care about whether mafia or town gets lynched.
That being said I'd say 6 mafias total is really unlikely.
ShadySands is my top mafia read followed by a bunch of people who are a about equally scummy. Like Gravan. Unlike yesterday I've got a bunch of decent townreads I don't want to get into detail today for obvious reasons.
Oh and @MMToss: I actually did not consider the option you mentioned. That could be the case but yeah I'll leave it with that.
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On September 16 2012 00:41 Bill Murray wrote: Toad is scum vig Toad killed GK with scum vig powers, hoping watcher/tracker would confirm him you know what? Screw this.
That's just ridiculous. I'm not going to answer stuff like that. If you think I'm mafia and you've still got your 2nd bullet (whoever the 2nd vig is) shoot me end let's get over with this. Sometimes you just have to shove someones green/blue head into peoples faces to show them how wrong they are and if people consider something like that there's really no point in arguing at all.
That way you can at least get down to lynching Shady Sands tomorrow without much of a "well I think Toad is mafia and not SS" vs "yeah and I think Shady is the better lynch" fuss. That way you at least got a decent chance tomorrow.
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you realize that I told you guys 24hours in advance that I'm not going to be around the final hours of the lynch and won't make it for the deadline at least 3 times? No you probably don't because you're still not reading the thread.
Unless of course you're saying I'm scummy because unlike the other days I didn't put myself into a leader position telling people what to do. Yeah because I wasn't sure what to do that day. But I guess that's a mafiatreat nowadays. I still posted way more than you (for example).
The case revolving around the soft defense of SnB is either 100% accurate (if you don't believe my claim) or it is 100% wrong (if you believe my claim) because if it's the latter one it's perfectly explained. There's pretty much nothing inbetween. If the S&B "thing" is all there is about me it comes down to wether or not you believe me. But of course you're telling people we should ignore that part and just lynch me because I didn't want to lynch S&B although I explained it perfectly.
Just lynch this guy tomorrow pretty please.
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On September 16 2012 05:04 Toadesstern wrote: you realize that I told you guys 24hours in advance that I'm not going to be around the final hours of the lynch and won't make it for the deadline at least 3 times? No you probably don't because you're still not reading the thread.
Unless of course you're saying I'm scummy because unlike the other days I didn't put myself into a leader position telling people what to do. Yeah because I wasn't sure what to do that day. But I guess that's a mafiatreat nowadays. I still posted way more than you (for example).
The case revolving around the soft defense of SnB is either 100% accurate (if you don't believe my claim) or it is 100% wrong (if you believe my claim) because if it's the latter one it's perfectly explained. There's pretty much nothing inbetween. If the S&B "thing" is all there is about me it comes down to wether or not you believe me. But of course you're telling people we should ignore that part and just lynch me because I didn't want to lynch S&B although I explained it perfectly.
Just lynch this guy tomorrow pretty please. EBWOP That was obviously directed at Shady Sands.
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On September 16 2012 06:16 Shady Sands wrote: I read through the filters of Rewok, ShiaoPi, et al, and didn't find enough to push any of them into scum territory.
I also looked through BM's filter and I found him conspicuously absent during the SnB wagon. He didn't even mention SnB until after the lynch was over. All he did was pressure Hopeless1der, who, as we know, dropped the hammer on SnB and should be considered town.
While it doesn't push my read on him clearly into scum territory, it is the first clear read he's given out all game long, since the rest of his filter consists of trolling.
Hence,
##FoS Bill Murray
You consider me to be mafia. If that's the case: Why should I die tonight? I'm not going to kill myself if I'm mafia.
Unless of course you believe my claim is true and there really is a 2nd vig, which you just told me a couple of hours ago is almost impossible according to you.
So if there's no 2nd vig and I'm mafia, how am I supposed to die tonight?
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