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On September 13 2012 19:19 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2012 16:01 DarthPunk wrote:On September 13 2012 12:55 slOosh wrote:
Not confirmed but it's a strong indicator. There was somewhat of a potential lynch building up against Z-Boson so scum would only have taken the route to shoot for the benefit of 2 deaths for 1 KP. If Toad were scum then they could have just shot someone else and pushed for Z-Boson (as seen from flips supported by town), lynches being the only thing scum are afraid of since I'm pretty sure there aren't any vigs left. We know Toad isn't scum so he is either town or assassin, and in either case we leave him alone.
Let's lynch Graven. That's exactly right. You can defiantly lean town on him but going from that to confirmed makes me uncomfortable. Especially when people are talking about sheeping him immediately. I consider the fact that mafia usually don't shoot themselves a way better indicator for my townieness. Just saying. Though yeah, when playing mafia I'm pretty bold but I doubt I'd be that nuts.
Yeah, I did say that you are probably look at you as town or third party. But there is a difference between that and CONFIRMED town. It is possible that you as scum gambled on the fact Z - Boson was lying to 'confirm' yourself. Likely? Depends if you are a gambling man or if you are well practised enough to recognize a fake claim that contains no breadcrumb. Plausible? Certainly.
Despite the lingering possibility that you took a risk for long term benefit It does seem a convoluted and inelegant solution to the situation makes me lean towards a townie Toad. But you are not confirmed. and people throwing that word around makes me nervous. Why? because it ends discussion and scum hunting on that person. It fallaciously transforms a probable into a certainty, and it could potentially cost us the game.
That being said;
Do you still maintain your town read on Bill Murray from your night one 'vet post' If so, why? If not, why not?
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So you have no idea either? I can't help but feel that BM will increasingly become a liability as the game moves forward. Perhaps it is best if I just ignore him. But honestly, If someone posted like he did in one of my newbie games he would have been insta lynched, no question.
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On September 13 2012 19:37 Toadesstern wrote:Oh I also don't think there's a medic. Should have probably told you about that earlier considering Z-bosons entire plan was based on being saved by the medic. Didn't think about that in time 
Wait what? There has to be a medic. BKE said that he saw only GK on BC no double stack. So that means we are missing 1 KP from that night.
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On September 13 2012 22:36 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2012 22:31 Bill Murray wrote:
Why not respond to any of my points?
the guy has 3 posts since he replaced in days upon days ago, one of them is one word, and the most recent is an excuse to be lurking. Why not Gravan is my question. I have a scumread on MMToss too, but he can wait until tomorrow. Why not Gravan is my question today.
Why not MMToss? I am going to read both of their (short) filters again and see what I come up with. Toad. It seems as if you have a town read on BM now? The interplay between you both is going way over my head.
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Gravan - His filter is short and doesn't contain much . He seems to comment on the by play and never actually scum hunts.
His Strongest scum reads were - Forumite and Z - Boson Who have both flipped green. His play is scummy and he is lurking but the same could be said for many players in this game.
He jumped on the Forumite lynch late. The rational behind his vote seemed to be simple repetition of the case made by others. This seems to be a theme with him. With one exception.
On September 05 2012 09:38 Gravan wrote:First, the straightforward part. It seems to me that Matt is most likely an assassin, or a very careless player. As many have said before me, there is no case for him to do what he did from a town perspective. To me, it seems that if he were mafia or town, we would likely have seen at least some kind of attempt at an explanation - either to strengthen his fellow mafia by giving them 'towncred' as they jump on his bandwagon or to try to convince us we are making a mistake as a town blue. As an assassin, he could just be seeing his end and giving up - this is of course moot if he decides to put in his piece later. Since he is apparently not a random newbie (who is a random newb, anyway  ?), and clearly likes to be an active player, it shouts assasinto me. Since it is day 1 and we only have so much information, we essentially have to lynch him anyway (even if we were nearly certain he is an assassin. At this time, I'll be throwing my vote his way. The post where I make my comments on the information currently present (as in, not to do with the matt bandwagon) is coming up later. I just wanted to put down somehing somewhat solid so thanI can start to develop a post hostory, watery as it might be.
His assertion that matt was actually an Assassin seems to be his greatest personal input into the game. He was called on it immediately of course, and thus he backs away from any defense of matt at a rate of knots and votes for him anyway.
He does actually put effort into a case on BM but it is quickly rebuked by Z -Boson and others and he then get's into a rather protracy.ted defense.
Mild OMGUS on Shady and that's about it. Not much to go on. Definitely scummy but nothing concrete.
TLDR; Seems to go along with the majority and has put little input into the game aside from Two major exceptions
Defending mattchew then backing down and voting for him.
A weak case on BM
He jumps onto the Forumite mislynch late and gives very weak reasoning.
Generally scummy and lurking.
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Well not much to say with MMToss other than BM was right. He has made excuses all game and not done anything useful. He is a replacement and does deserve a little BOTD but how much is enough? Meh. I don't love either of these lynches to be honest. Nothing concrete at least. But I think there is more on Gravan and MMToss is almost purely AFK at fountain.
BM seems to think Gravan is town though. And I think I know why.
BM. What is your position on Sloosh?
Also I went through Rewok's filter and something jumped out at me.
On September 09 2012 10:43 Rewok wrote:Show nested quote +Rewok
Since BKE flipped town, this caught my eye:
On September 08 2012 01:27 Rewok wrote:
TBH with you, I'm a little hesitant to lynch BKE. I'll vote for him because it's better to get some blood than no blood, but it wouldn't hurt to open our search up a little bit. Don't we have more than 24 hours left?
Personally, I've had Mav on my radar for awhile because of posts he had on both Mattchew and Ottox (will find them later - gotta run to work now.) And this recent ShaoPi thing seems rather fishy as well.
So here's my ##vote BKE, with the readiness to unvote it and switch it up if we find someone better.
First he's hesitant to lynch BKE. Then he wants to vote for him because "it's better to get some blood than no blood" - NOT because he thinks BKE is mafia.
He then points fingers at two people (Mav and ShiaoPi).
Vigi shot anyone? I get where you're coming from. After today's vote, I'm pretty shaky on my position as well. The truth is: I made cases for Mattchew, BKE and Mav. Pretty much the same as every other town in this game. If you're going to try to prove me red, you've got to prove every other player as well (minus the lukers.) All I can say is this: I'm gonna need a ton of reading before I put down another vote like that one.
On September 11 2012 04:07 Rewok wrote:
I've been wrong every time I voted on my own instinct and right the time I followed Toade so my vote is for Forumite.
##vote: Forumite
These combined with his epic list post which contained a null read on everybody makes me like him as a lurker lynch. There is a shit ton of scummy stuff in his filter.
On September 05 2012 09:48 Rewok wrote:
Been keeping up my reading. Here's how the situation seems to me:
We're voting Mattchew today. Pretty much no getting out of that. If he turns up scum, Ottox and a few others could be on the chopping block. If he's town, we've got a whole new set of reads.
But it seems to me that our whole strategy hinges on how Mattchew turns up after he's killed. Is there any way we can get another read / another kill set up for D1? One which doesn't hinge on Mattchew's alignment?
I'm asking because you guys are way more familiar with the way TL mafia runs.
The above seems to completely contradict this next post.
On September 06 2012 11:44 Rewok wrote:
Been keeping up on this, just nothing to add. I thought Matt would flip red, he did, so I'm suspicious of Otto still.
Until Otto is cleared or dead, I don't have much else to add. Great D1 though :-)
Hapa also had some suspicion on him.
On September 09 2012 07:29 Hapahauli wrote:RewokSince BKE flipped town, this caught my eye: Show nested quote +On September 08 2012 01:27 Rewok wrote:
TBH with you, I'm a little hesitant to lynch BKE. I'll vote for him because it's better to get some blood than no blood, but it wouldn't hurt to open our search up a little bit. Don't we have more than 24 hours left?
Personally, I've had Mav on my radar for awhile because of posts he had on both Mattchew and Ottox (will find them later - gotta run to work now.) And this recent ShaoPi thing seems rather fishy as well.
So here's my ##vote BKE, with the readiness to unvote it and switch it up if we find someone better. First he's hesitant to lynch BKE. Then he wants to vote for him because "it's better to get some blood than no blood" - NOT because he thinks BKE is mafia. He then points fingers at two people (Mav and ShiaoPi). Vigi shot anyone?
Thoughts?
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Anyway. It is 1am almost and I am off to bed. I'll catch up with you kids in the morning.
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Hey guys. Just finished uni for the morning at least I like the activity and discussion. Especially MMToss and Shady. MMToss has been very rational. Laid a very good case on MAV and has the same rational about toads confirmed status that I do. All in all. I DO NOT want to lynch MMToss today.
Shady has gradually increased his activity as the days have gone on and he is looking alot closer to his meta.
This is good for us. Why? Because 2 people who were previously lurking are now active and contributing to the thread.
If they are scum, they are far easier to get a clear read on.
If they are town they are contributing to the diversity of opinion, analysis and discussion which is the system of checks and balances that lessens the influence of scum and makes it more likely to get a good outcome from our lynches.
I liked MMToss' case on MAV but I also like the sudden burst of activity from MAV, for the afore mentioned reason. I think Rewok is a very good person to look at. Considering his monstrous in activity and the scummy stuff that is in his filter.
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On September 14 2012 13:00 slOosh wrote:
For Rewok it's looking a lot like Graven. It's his first game and he does show uncertainty at the earlier stages. My feeling is that he is overwhelmed by the unnatural amount of things in this game (flipping scum N1, getting multiple washout mislynches , people like Grush and BM getting ignored) that he has just given up and fallen back on sheeping, which is a very understandable thing for a lost townie to do.
SnB and Toad are not as easily excused as they have many games under their belt and are capable of so much more, and yet are completely apathetic and are not contributing to finding and lynching scum.
Yeah Ok. I am guessing that meta is coming into play again. I will look into S&B as I have not really paid much attention to him. Slipping under the radar is a warning sign. SO I will take a look at his filter.
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On September 14 2012 17:51 Bill Murray wrote:
You all need to listen to me
OK. I am willing to listen to you. Go. Who do we lynch and why?
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I am going to consolidate my vote onto gravan. Some extremely negative personal shit happened this evening. I don;t really want to get into it but mafia is not high on my priorities right now. Should be somewhat better tomorrow.
##Unvote
##Vote: Gravan
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Hi I am finally back. My ex and I just went through the final stages of a long and messy breakup and that is why I was absent from the thread. I am going to read through from where I left off. (my vote on gravan) and try and catch up. I have skimmed the thread and read the night and day posts. But that is about it.
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On September 17 2012 17:18 ShiaoPi wrote:
hey shady mind popping into the thread instead of blogging away? IF you are town (quite a huge stretch now imo) you should be here sharing reads and stuff or trying to convince us otherwise, right now you are like mattchew when his fakeclaim got snuffed out.
@Darthpunk:
What are your thoughts right now?
Hi. I am just rereading it all again. But some things to note so far.
Shady looks extremely scummy from the last passage of play. He really Pushed for a mislynch on gravan even with better candidates who were even more guilty of similar things. (rewok) and the byplay during the previous nights play has really looked bad for him. I have played and obsed shady for 3 out of his 4 games and his meta has been 100% out from those games. Which included a scum game. One thing about that though is that I would absolutely expect shady to have been in the thread pushing a read or defending himself. Something which he has not really done at all recently. I think he is a good lynch candidate. For me it is weird because I had a town read on him this game. But I guess I was wrong.
On September 15 2012 08:06 Shady Sands wrote:
[snip]
I have a few other players who look scummy to me:
Rewok
ShiaoPi
Mementoss
DarthPunk
I'm going to be looking through their filters and will get something out before the daypost.
Final note: in case this isn't obvious already, S&B lynch should serve as strong town-tells for Sloosh and Hopeless1der.
This post where he thinks that everyone but him who voted for Gravan is scummy seems like a ploy to misdirect attention away from himself, especially after he pushed it so hard and pointedly asked for people to vote for him. He then finds no one on this list scummy and pushes on BM.
Further. I am concerned about the Following players.
BM
Rewok
Grush
I think scum could easily be hiding in the midst of those three. I had a town read on BM amazingly (this was mainly due to the consistent assurances of the vets that he was probably town.) but reading through. The 2 people who made these claims flipped 3rd party and as toad said. THEY HAD A VESTED INTEREST IN DERAILING TOWN as we were so far ahead after the mattchew lynch and gk flip.
So BM is worrying due to his playstyle being unreadable and all the assurances about him were from non town.
Rewok is hard lurking and only makes one post for his vote. and then sheeps the popular choice.
Grush is trolling or doesn't give a shit.
All these players are a liability during LYLO. I still feel BM is townie just due to the fact that he seems to actually give a shit about town.
The other two clearly do not give a shit about town. And that makes me fucking nervous.
I have a strong town read on Kreb. He is playing really well and is actively pro town. Especially as a replacement.
Also I don;t think this has been posted so I got it together quickly. (if it has I apologise)
DAY 4 VOTECOUNT
S&B Sloosh, MMToss, Mav, Kreb, Imallinson, Hopeless
Gravan Rewok, SS, Shiao Pi, Toad, DarthPunk
Maverick32X S&B, Grush57
Shady Sands BM
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On September 17 2012 18:15 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On September 17 2012 13:27 DarthPunk wrote:
Hi I am finally back. My ex and I just went through the final stages of a long and messy breakup and that is why I was absent from the thread. I am going to read through from where I left off. (my vote on gravan) and try and catch up. I have skimmed the thread and read the night and day posts. But that is about it. this is really, really scummy
It is true. Meh. If you think I am lying about shit like that to win a game of mafia that is your prerogative I suppose.
On September 17 2012 18:14 Bill Murray wrote:
^notice my vote on shadysands... before the thread?
nice OMGUS DarthPunk, considering I've been calling you scum for days
I did notice your vote on shady. I said nothing about you voting/not voting for shady. But at this point I am not surprised you didn;t read my post properly.
It is not an OMGUS. I said I was leaning townie on you at least twice in that post. I just said you were a liability. Because of posts like these. You get shit wrong. You don't read things properly. You troll and post badly. You are unclear and difficult to read. I lean on you being town because to me it seems like you give a shit. But it is far from certain and you being you is a liability during endgame.
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On September 17 2012 18:14 Bill Murray wrote:
^notice my vote on shadysands... before the thread?
Wait. WTF IS THIS SHIT?? Why does you voting shady first mean anything? Also others voted shady yesterday and ##unvoted. I don;t see how pointing this out is beneficial at all.
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On September 17 2012 18:39 Kreb wrote:
Darth Punk has also gone very much under the radar, dont think anyone has ever brought up anything on him, so that might be another reason for everyone to take a serious look at him. Should he be scum it should be possible to find something on him, compared to Rewok/Grush.
Well only if you count BM who has called me scum for like 2 cycles. But I welcome you all to take a look at me and would be surprised if you haven't already.
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Thread is dead. I am going to Vote for shady. I hope he comes and defends himself. if he doesn't, it is pretty damning. I will stay up a bit later. (It is 11pm) and see if anything happens. I have set an alarm for 6am my time which is 2 hours before deadline. That is when I will check back in. Unless of course something actually happens and I stay up late. Shiao Pi! you are close to my Time Zone. Got any further input?
##Vote: Shady Sands
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On September 17 2012 22:35 ShiaoPi wrote:
I actually am starting to get a little paranoid about this lynch. Objectively Shady does look like the best lynch imo, but the lack of resistance to it got me worried >_> (unless we count rewok's silent objection)
That is why I said I hope he comes and defends himself. I mean at the moment he is looking guilty with his complete absence and did look ultra scummy during the S&B lynch and the following night. Who do you think would make a good alternate option?
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Well a Rewok - Shady scum team sort of fits everything pretty well. I would really like to hear from shady though. And rewok hasn't even voted yet.
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On September 17 2012 23:11 ShiaoPi wrote:
ugh thread is as dead as it can get >_>
anyone else here NOT from East Asia/Australia?
LOL. Doubt it.
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EPT
