On September 14 2012 10:18 Maverick32x wrote:Doop-de-doop, I'll look at Grav. Before I dig into filters, my gut feeling of Grav is that he has been on the side lines throughout the game and that he's a new player. Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 05:41 Gravan wrote:
This post is passive and is just here to give you guys some information about me.
I am reading through all the filters and will be making a real contributive post sometime soon. I haven't been keeping up with this thread as well as I ought to have. For some reason, I can't seem to access the voting link from my phone - I am trying to work out when the vote is due, but I will be submitting one in a few hours after reading and pondering, once I get back to my computer. I hope I am not missing a deadline because I really would not like to be modkilled so early on.
I am done traveling after today, so I will be properly active very shortly. Sorry for lurking and not contributing.
Again, sorry for the spam, hello and expect to start hearing from me. Passive. Very passive and apologetic. This sounds like subtle fear of being 'found out' (scummy) Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 09:38 Gravan wrote:First, the straightforward part. It seems to me that Matt is most likely an assassin, or a very careless player. As many have said before me, there is no case for him to do what he did from a town perspective. To me, it seems that if he were mafia or town, we would likely have seen at least some kind of attempt at an explanation - either to strengthen his fellow mafia by giving them 'towncred' as they jump on his bandwagon or to try to convince us we are making a mistake as a town blue. As an assassin, he could just be seeing his end and giving up - this is of course moot if he decides to put in his piece later. Since he is apparently not a random newbie (who is a random newb, anyway  ?), and clearly likes to be an active player, it shouts assasinto me. Since it is day 1 and we only have so much information, we essentially have to lynch him anyway (even if we were nearly certain he is an assassin. At this time, I'll be throwing my vote his way. The post where I make my comments on the information currently present (as in, not to do with the matt bandwagon) is coming up later. I just wanted to put down somehing somewhat solid so thanI can start to develop a post hostory, watery as it might be. Wants to blend in. Still apologizing. Pretty bad first couple posts. Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 13:30 Gravan wrote:On September 05 2012 13:00 Hapahauli wrote:
Why is he voting Mattchew if he's convinced he's an assassin? Hell that post doesn't really explain why he's even voting - "we essentially have to lynch him anyway" - wut? This is my fault for wording this sentence poorly. Although I am still leaning towards Matt being an assassin, he certainly looks all kinds of scummy as well. There isn't enough information at this point to lynch someone else - this lynch will, at worst, be neutral. I feel that, unless someone who has better evidence against them comes up (unlikely) we are better off to make this lynch and gain the information (Matt's flip) than sit idle. I am just asserting that I personally think he is an assassin. I'm done on the whole Matt issue now; still working on making my posts more constructive and less parrot-y. If Matt flips scum, Ottox and Toad really need to be looked at. Ottox has been making his bizarre crusade about the potential innocence of Matt, as everyone knows. To me, Toad's last few posts have seemed a little aimless and very personally aggressive with little content. He spends a considerable amount of time shutting down and pointing at Ottox (who is looking obviously scummy or very misguided) in a well written post, then shifts to personal attacks and negligent remarks. Sleep time for me now; I'll actually have some rest by tomorrow and won't be travelling. This was my perspective as well when I played the Portal Mafia, which is making me wonder if a lot of this is kind of 'new town' sort of stuff? My perspective was "Kill everyone that is not town" I didn't care if you were 3rd party, 4th party or mafia.... if you weren't green... you needed to die. So his thought that- "Well, he's 3rd party, so we're good to lynch him" makes a lot of sense to me. He connects Ottox and Toad loosely... but I think he digs in a bit with his reads considering his post history. Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 10:16 Gravan wrote:I think Bill Murray is scum. Also, Hapahauli, what is your read on Gravan? Scum or town? I don't want you using the word Null. Pick one. Scum or town? Consider yourself having a Gun to your head. This is the first time he mentions me. At this point, he hasn't put forward any kind of read on me at all. In addition, many of his posts up until this point (not to mention quite a few afterward) are pointless one-liners, or just generally non-contributing. The next thing he does is tell austin to read my filter as if I was scum (again, not argument put forward on his part - he is talking as if me being scum is a forgone conclusion). + Show Spoiler +On September 06 2012 07:18 austinmcc wrote:
Show nested quote +
Looking through his profile, I see his only other game was LIII. So he's at least played, although not with me. But he knows that some of the people in this game played that game, he played with them, he knows they are competent individuals with functioning brains.
It's the first time I've ever seen someone cling to something absolutely wrong in this manner. I have posted paranoid rants in two games, stuck by them for a while as possibilities, gotten upset if people wouldn't consider them as possibilities, but I didn't get like this.
Right now (and if Matt flips scum I will be more certain of the read) I can't help but read the whole thing like this:
Matt got caught
Ottoxlol tried to save him, without realizing how bad an idea it was
Ottoxlol shortly realized how bad an idea it was
A decent scum player told him right after he got caught looking very odd that he couldn't back off his defense, because then he'd look even scummier
So he went full bore nuts, and that's why he won't listen to anyone or anything
It doesn't feel like he's just obtuse. At some point he'd get the message. It feels like he's clinging to this.
Do me a favor, and go read Gravan's filter as if he were a scum idiot Then he goes on to say that hap is on his scumlist for "coaching" me. + Show Spoiler +On September 06 2012 07:23 Hapahauli wrote:
Show nested quote +
Null. Deal with it.
His posts/logic right now could come from either mafia or bad-townie. I don't have enough information to make a decision since hasn't posted much. Fortunately we have 48 hours to make a read on him.
yeah youre on my scum list
so is gravan
you openly coached him Afterwards, he includes doyouhas in this list. + Show Spoiler +filter
On September 06 2012 07:27 imallinson wrote:
Show nested quote +
I'd say Gravan looks real scummy right now. He attempted the same thing as Ottox, defending Matt by saying he was probably an assassin, but much more quietly and backed away as soon as he realised it was a bad idea. If anything that looks more scummy than Ottox at the moment.
THANK YOU.
Go read Gravan's filter, and tell me if you don't find hapa coaching him?
2nd person I've caught him coaching that looks like scum with him (Doyouhas is the other) His next two posts that mention me go on to mention (offhandedly) the apparently obvious need to have me shot by a vig. Further, if you read his filter he is very non-comittal on the otto-defending-matt-and-generally-acting-scummy issue. His posts are passively worded and just softly agree with the flow of the thread at the time. I ALMOST like this post. He target BM which is cool. Very straight forward, non-apologetic. The only problem is, its only because he's being called out and feels threatened. So again with the fear response. Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 10:39 Gravan wrote:On September 06 2012 10:31 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On September 06 2012 10:26 Gravan wrote:On September 06 2012 10:18 Z-BosoN wrote:On September 06 2012 10:16 Gravan wrote:I think Bill Murray is scum. Also, Hapahauli, what is your read on Gravan? Scum or town? I don't want you using the word Null. Pick one. Scum or town? Consider yourself having a Gun to your head. This is the first time he mentions me. At this point, he hasn't put forward any kind of read on me at all. In addition, many of his posts up until this point (not to mention quite a few afterward) are pointless one-liners, or just generally non-contributing. The next thing he does is tell austin to read my filter as if I was scum (again, not argument put forward on his part - he is talking as if me being scum is a forgone conclusion). + Show Spoiler +On September 06 2012 07:18 austinmcc wrote:
Show nested quote +
Looking through his profile, I see his only other game was LIII. So he's at least played, although not with me. But he knows that some of the people in this game played that game, he played with them, he knows they are competent individuals with functioning brains.
It's the first time I've ever seen someone cling to something absolutely wrong in this manner. I have posted paranoid rants in two games, stuck by them for a while as possibilities, gotten upset if people wouldn't consider them as possibilities, but I didn't get like this.
Right now (and if Matt flips scum I will be more certain of the read) I can't help but read the whole thing like this:
Matt got caught
Ottoxlol tried to save him, without realizing how bad an idea it was
Ottoxlol shortly realized how bad an idea it was
A decent scum player told him right after he got caught looking very odd that he couldn't back off his defense, because then he'd look even scummier
So he went full bore nuts, and that's why he won't listen to anyone or anything
It doesn't feel like he's just obtuse. At some point he'd get the message. It feels like he's clinging to this.
Do me a favor, and go read Gravan's filter as if he were a scum idiot Then he goes on to say that hap is on his scumlist for "coaching" me. + Show Spoiler +On September 06 2012 07:23 Hapahauli wrote:
Show nested quote +
Null. Deal with it.
His posts/logic right now could come from either mafia or bad-townie. I don't have enough information to make a decision since hasn't posted much. Fortunately we have 48 hours to make a read on him.
yeah youre on my scum list
so is gravan
you openly coached him Afterwards, he includes doyouhas in this list. + Show Spoiler +filter
On September 06 2012 07:27 imallinson wrote:
Show nested quote +
I'd say Gravan looks real scummy right now. He attempted the same thing as Ottox, defending Matt by saying he was probably an assassin, but much more quietly and backed away as soon as he realised it was a bad idea. If anything that looks more scummy than Ottox at the moment.
THANK YOU.
Go read Gravan's filter, and tell me if you don't find hapa coaching him?
2nd person I've caught him coaching that looks like scum with him (Doyouhas is the other) His next two posts that mention me go on to mention (offhandedly) the apparently obvious need to have me shot by a vig. Further, if you read his filter he is very non-comittal on the otto-defending-matt-and-generally-acting-scummy issue. His posts are passively worded and just softly agree with the flow of the thread at the time. This is the worst case I've ever seen. Typically, when one argues against another, a counter-argument has to be presented. Since it appears as though I am on some people's chopping blocks, some discussion could be useful. Just denouncing my case gets town no-where. You chose a poor person to analyze. Bm is like chezinu and incredibly hard to pin down normally. You typically have to rely on things like scumslips to catch either of them or take look at the overall effort they put into a game. Now given that. You're analysis is very lacking, and looks like cherry picking. You don't include examples or even a link to his filter to prove your case. It seems rushed and made by someone backed into a corner. If you are town you should have no reason to feel rushed, you have plenty of time to post your thoughts. First off, while I understand a player's meta is something to consider, I really have no idea what you are talking about with respect to how Bill plays or whoever this chezinu is. I included at least three examples. See those quotes/spoilers? All of them include quotes from Bill Murray. As to being rushed, well, I am just trying to not lurk. Apparently that is a bad thing to do - working on putting my thoughts out there and trying to stimulate discussion. I like this post actually. It speaks to me well. I also am not up to speed on the "meta" of other players... This indicates to me that he really IS a new player.. trying to find his way and get the swing of things. He wants to put his thoughts out and get something going, but seems unclear as to how to do it. Okay, as I'm going through the filters from this point to the end of his page 1- he all of a sudden starts to pick up a LOT more momentum. He is being more assertive with his claims and is getting more involved. Here are some posts. Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 01:02 Gravan wrote:On September 09 2012 00:50 BroodKingEXE wrote:On September 09 2012 00:26 austinmcc wrote:On September 09 2012 00:21 Shady Sands wrote:
Thanks.
Ergo, we have no way to verify BKE's claim... Right. Either he's a watcher OR he chose a fakeclaim so bad it could be disproven pretty much by flips alone. And it wasn't a pressure claim, he was getting called out all yesterday, then claimed while nobody was doing anything. I'm currently believing the claim since it seems like a giant risk to take when you're already down 2. Heck, why go with a terrible fake claim when you could name anything?
BM, where you at? We discussed scum having/not having some sort of leader earlier. I'd like to hear your updated thoughts. Ottoxlol flipped town, so it's not a case where mattchew/ottox/gravan all messed up and looked scummy D1. 2 vets died, so they're not options as some sort of mafia general, commanding the troops. Now we've got this BKE claim. Do you believe that claim? Are there players you could see saying, "hey you, go make a terrible fakeclaim that's so bad people will have trouble thinking it's from scum"? I don't see BKE, if scum, going that route, because you don't really gain anything compared to a better fake claim. I have to be honest, Im just laying it out. In XIII Newbie, I was One-Shot and didn't claim and everyone said I should've. I don't want to make the same mistake. I know me getting GK back is useless, but I need town to know what you guys will be lynching. Medic should not claim definetly(if we have one and they acted), else we both die. I picked BC primarily for the reason that Matt was his first pick and he was using the lynch to look around for other scum. He was speaking with really solid logic and had a few scum reads already. DrH was under a bit of fire, so I wasn't sure if scum was going to let that sit and develop. I didn't think Toad was active enough to be killed that night, but he had by then moved to my town list due to his response to my case. Just to make it clear I think Shady and Mav are scum I would actually like to hear what you suspect happened on N1 - who did what, from your point of view. What was the scenario? Also, unless I am missing it, did you actually make any kind of case against Shady? Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 01:50 Gravan wrote:
I still have reservations about this switch. According to what I can gather from this thread, Grush always acts like an idiot. This gets him mislynched often. We're lynching him, instead of BKE (who, until his meager roleclaim and sudden throwing out of cases) was under intense suspicion and getting wagon'd.
So far as I can tell, the logic goes roughly as follows:
BKE is very suspicious, but his blue claim isn't out of the question.
Lynching a blue would be very detrimental to the town.
Grush is suspicious (alternatively idiotic and anti-town, depending on who is talking) and non-contributive besides.
Lynching Grush is, at worse, a mislynch (we won't miss his discussions as a townie) and at best a mafia lynch.
This is all just a little sudden for me. What happened to those strong suspicions regarding BKE's earlier flip-flopping? Can one of you vote-switchers explain to me how that behaviour is now negated/lessened because of his role-claim? Show nested quote +On September 10 2012 03:52 Gravan wrote:There is a lot of "in this game x player played like this" or, "y is a veteran, therefore the following is probable...". While I think these are fine as supporting arguments (since past tendencies/experience are relevant things to consider) I feel like all this talk of veterans and meta play is clouding and overtaking what people have actually said and how people have actually been playing. It could be a mafia tactic to draw away from the discussion, or it could just be a little too much focus on outside/less relevant factors, but either way I encourage everyone to focus more on filters from this game and less on filters from other games. Also: On September 10 2012 02:56 strongandbig wrote:##vote: toad for mayorNo but actually, you bring up a very good point. I played in WoF and Forumite this game does remind me of his play from that game. That said, I think austin's case on z-boson is pretty good as well - he's hedging a lot, and his reasoning around the BKE vote really doesn't make much sense. So toad and austin, since both of you are pretty decent players and regardless of your own alignments are gonna be pretty good at mafia logic, what do you make of each others' cases? One last thing - I don't have all that much time so I was looking through some shorter filters. What do people think of hopeless1der? His filter can be described as - kind of a scummy waffle around the mattchew lynch - tunneling forumite Now, on the one hand I think forumite is a decent scum candidate; but seriously I don't think hopeless has talked about anything else for more than one or two lines. This is a contradiction for me from past games, where hopeless's filter has looked well-thought-out and where it's easy to get a town read on him. Also I feel like there might be a contradiction here: On September 05 2012 06:18 Hopeless1der wrote:On September 05 2012 06:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On September 05 2012 05:57 Bill Murray wrote:On September 04 2012 09:36 Forumite wrote:On September 04 2012 09:12 Mattchew wrote:
I am a nosy neighbor. Anyone else with this role should insta-claim as well.
The reason people policy lynch people like BM and Grush is because they get by into later in the game because they are unreadable. This is because they barely actually play the game and if you end up in lylo with one of them left, you've basically already lost. I completely understand anyone wanting to policy lynch them, but we should also not allow them to be off the hook for some sort of scum read during the day.
That being said, I remember thinking to myself that I don't hate BM's play in the last few games I have been in with him. I do not want to policy lynch today.
Why would you claim this? You eliminated yourself as a possible blue from scums list of townies, and it´s not like you doing this eliminates you as a scum suspect. If someone see you visiting a player who dies the we´re lynching you anyway. check this scummy post from forumite 1) misreads the setup 2) attacks him with a smirk for the claim, which looks scummy as shit 3) takes the visiting thing a step further, saying "if they die" which clears a ton of scum roles... forumite is scum with a role FoS: Forumite Only real issue I have with this is that he didn't misread the setup to my knowledge. The setup was completely ambiguous on the Nosy Neighbor and required a mod to come in and clarify the situation. Aside from that I do get how you made the connections you did although he doesn't neccesarily have a scum role as my understanding of the setup would be mafia choose who makes a night KP given that no mafia can be responsible for more than 1 shot according to that mafia KP change. Thus any "non visiting mafia" would be "cleared" from suspicion. A mafia with a role can both use his action and take a shot. As an example, the mafia Vig can 'visit' and shoot two different players in the same night. I don't follow how the Scum KP mechanics make it unlikely that Forumite (or any potential scum) would NOT have a role, or for example, how a goon who stays home is cleared. On September 08 2012 16:06 Hopeless1der wrote:
Unless someone claims a vig shot on GK, you're supposed to be dead right now. That was worse than Mattchew's claim. insta-reaction was to throw water on bke's claim, even though he already knew a scum with a role could also deliver a factional kp. Now, I also didn't believe bke's claim, but it's not just that he didn't believe it - he discounted it with a reason that he already knew wasn't airtight. Not sure how bad of a contradiction that is but I think it is a contradiction. I do get the feeling (as I implied/made light of earlier) that Hopeless' claim was a little too absolute. I would like to hear a little more of Hopeless so that I can get a bit more of a read on him - especially since his favourite target (forumite) is in the spotlight/sights right now. Ok, this next post I think is REALLY important. Show nested quote +On September 12 2012 05:48 Gravan wrote:On September 12 2012 05:39 Forumite wrote:On September 12 2012 04:27 Hopeless1der wrote:If you're going to respond, could you not cherry pick?
Forumite, Why should we lynch Z-Boson?
Why do you want me to die?
Make an effort to explain yourself.
I don´t know, stuff you´ve done. I´m not as sure on you as on Z-boson and BM though, and sometimes I get the feeling you are more likely town. I have 80 minutes left in the game, why do you want me to spend it on making a case on you? On September 12 2012 04:37 Mementoss wrote:On September 12 2012 04:35 Z-BosoN wrote:Also, eagerly awaiting your case on mav: On September 11 2012 22:12 Mementoss wrote:
I am at work and don't have much time. Catching up is hard, from my reading so far I think Maverick is scum and will vote him I read the most recent case on forumite but I just don't see it. Hopefully I can finish filling in the gaps of reading tonight and actually post a worthy post of why maverick is scum. I'm hoping I can make deadline today busy day. When I posted this I was at page 40. I'm at page 59 now. So I still have half the game to catch up on. At this point it won't change whose going to get lynched, but I still have to find out who is scum so I can be helpful day4 Mementoss is SCUM SCUM SCUM! Noone cares about Mav, so stop wasting your vote and actually put it on someone that might get lynched tonight. There are only 3 candidates: Forumite
Z-Boson
Bill MurrayPut it on one of them, or I´ll scream at vigis to kill you tonight! On September 12 2012 04:54 Gravan wrote:
At this point, my viewpoint is as follows (on the big topics):
Bill Murray is still suspicious, but, really, who the fuck knows?
Z-Boson is highly suspicious.
Forumite is highly suspicious, and very shifty. For somebody who is posting somewhat regularily, he hasn't done too much to defend himself other than point as many fingers as he can as quickly as he can - something that seems really scummy.
I wish we had another day to talk about this, heh.
##Vote Forumite. On September 12 2012 04:56 Gravan wrote:
To be a bit more clear:
Bill Murray's posting is very difficult to read, and he claims to have had more knowledge than he really ought to have had. That said, he has apparently been playing mafia for a while so he could also have just made a good read.
Z-Boson is far too defensive for my liking - it seems like he thinks that every post that isn't in agreement with him, or that pulls the discussion away from his posts, is targeted at him. FML You explain how all three candidates are scummy, and then vote the one with the biggest wagon. You are SCUM! too. This kind of posts only strengthens the need to vote for you, in my mind. Down to the wire, all you are doing is pointing as many fingers as you can, as aggressively as you can (in big red letters, hehe), with the bare minimum amount of evidence or effort. It seems desperate instead of simply defensive. Why not try to clear your name and answer the accusations about yourself as best you can in an attempt to lift votes off you (no matter how futile, at this late hour)? Hopeless (the first person in the game to point a serious finger at you) has even given you this opportunity on a silver platter. Yet, all you continue to do is dodge and slip around, shouting at other people and being selective in your question answering and case-making. This is something that I think he was TRYING to do early game. However, he kind of violates his own rule when he decided to turn on BM in an attempt to 'clear his name'. In fact- his quoted posts above clearly indicate that he felt he needed a counter argument... which was to point fingers to clear his name????? Other than that, he has started to contribute a lot more which I can relate to. I hate posting early in the game. It sucks. Its confusing. There are too many people talking. You have people like BM saying things like "This person is scum" and everyone just listens to them for seemingly NO reason... Now though- he is posting significantly differently than he was at the start.... Why would a scum INCREASE his posting.. when there are plenty of lurkers for him to hide amongst? He is putting himself out there in more assertive ways... This speaks more to Gravan's personality as a person.. probably awkward in groups- has to get to know people more before opening up...probably only has a few close friends.. etc etc... (Also yes, I am a therapist ha) tldr: Gravan appears to be a new player(town)- or a mafia pretending to be new.. and doing an absolutely awesome job at it.
So your read is that Grav is either town or mafia?
Which IS IT?
Town or scum?
|
EPT
