EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXIV
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
[color=green]I didn't see this in the OP. Is this plurality or majority voting?[/color] My first forum game so no previous threads to link, sorry. In regards to an SK: I agree with discussing the SK being a waste of time. It will become obvious very quickly if there is an SK when multiple people are dying nightly. On August 15 2012 09:53 Shady Sands wrote: I don't like that post by Solarsail, it smells funny. Everyone please try to avoid posting like this. If you don't explain why it's "funny" there can't be discussion and it clutters up the thread. | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
Regarding Solarsail: I didn't see that post as a soft accusation of me. My reasoning for thinking this is that it was the second post of the game. Likewise to a few other people, the thought hadn't occurred to me until Shady brought it up. From a scum perspective he has absolutely nothing to gain by accusing me of being scum that early. Taking this as anything more than a null read currently is a mistake IMO. What's more telling currently is his responses to what should have been a joke of pressure that early in Day 1. His sarcastic arguing and OMGUS vote leave me a lot more suspicious. @Solarsail You need to stop trolling and try and get some info or you're just asking to be lynched, regardless of wether or not you're town. @Shady Sands In your first post you say that of policy that we should "stop OGMUS wars" (emphasis mine, kept the whole quote for context). Yet other than pre-game banter your only posts until halfway through the 2nd page of your filter are all about confrontations to Solarsail/defending your accusation of a very, very weak case. On August 15 2012 09:42 Shady Sands wrote: + Show Spoiler [Thoughts on XXIII] + I'm still really mad at Hapa for essentially winning on luck in XXIII. Had GK actually spoken up in the game, Hapa wouldn't have had the GK lynch to work off of and we scum could have safely NK'd him without worrying about a medic save. Howdy town. Let's kick some scum ass. A few policy notes:
That's all for now, good luck everyone. So far you've accused Solarsail for soft-accusing me and focused on administrative stuff (getting filters, posting who hasn't posted yet) for a combined 14 posts. I understand that you're trying to get conversation started which is great, but I noticed you missed or ignored Z-BosoN's post directed towards you about Meta-Analysis. He's asked this twice and you've ignored him both times. @Shady Sands Regarding meta. As mentioned in earlier mafias, metas are good to keep in mind, but they are weak to base your arguments on. What we want to look at people's earlier games are their reasoning, their ferocity in detecting and attacking suspicious behavior, and their general ability to detect flaws in arguments. Even with equal roles, one player will most likely not post in the same manner or the same tone as in past games. My question to you is: Why do you feel that getting filters is so necssary? The best way to catch scum is still to hunt in tthe thread with meta-analysis only serving as the final nail in the coffin. The repeated posts on this makes me feel like there is the possibility that you're using this to be active without really hunting (1 weak accusation and 1 glaringly obvious accusation so far). Your overall level of activity makes me believe this isn't the case but I want to hear your explination. | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
##Vote Archrun Here's why I think Archrun is our best lynch (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359489&user=155910 - Full Filter for easy reference): On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote: This is my first time playing, but I did read XXIII in preparation for this game and the policy seemed effective, because even if the scum is being active everyone has a a good sample of posts to analyze and hopefully make more accurate reads. As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason. So far he has a total of six posts in this game. I don't find that particularly suspicious but what I do find suspicious is that he looks active throughout without actually looking for scum. In his first post he says the policy from XXIII and that as a VT he promotes "any policy that helps us catch scum." Although you can't expect scumhunting this early, I wanted to point out his noncommittal attitude. On August 15 2012 10:20 Archrun wrote: To follow that point up, I feel like the scum threat is a lot stronger than SK because they are organized and know who to attack. A SK in my eyes is like a scum with only one person in it that can attack other scums independently. So if any exist in this game they shouldn't become an issue until later in the game. Now he has two more posts for that day. The first one is agreeing with both Shady and thrawn's statements that a SK is a non-issue at this point for the town. This has already been agreed upon and he didn't contribute anything new with his post except that a team of 3 is more dangerous than a 1 man team. His only other post before disappearing for 24 hours is soft defending Thrawn from Shady. Fast forward 26 hours and we get to the point that really stood out to me and caused me to look into him more closely. First his case on Solar and Jhuyt: On August 16 2012 13:58 Archrun wrote: Sorry for being lurky, not intend just became last minute busy. As far as reads go I am going through the thread at will give my thoughts on the case against YH, thrawn, and GK as soon as I can, but right now I want to make a ##FoS: Jhuyt and Solar Case: Jhuyt puts: then Solar puts: May main concern is two-fold: 1) Jhuyt claims Solar is just an emotional by his previous TL post history, which later Solar claims to be a deliberate act. Futhermore, skimming through Solar TL post history it doesn't seem that emotionally based. In fact, it is closer to his current professionalism. I believe Jhuyt defense of him is a blatant lie. 2) Solar questions why Thrawn is defending him, but not Jhuyt. Other people defend Solar has a bad townies, and to shape up his posting, while Jhuyt explained Solar behavior (falsely) as that is the type of person solar is. This leads me wonder why would Solar question Thrawn's motives and not Jhuyt? This plays out four ways: If Jhuyt is townie and Solar is townie then Solar should of suspected his motives like he did with thrawn or both of them are mason and there is no need to question each others motives. I believe them being Masons is possible. If Jhuyt is townie and Solar is scum then why would jhuyt lie about Solar's posting? Futhermore, why wouldn't Solar call Jhuyt out like he did with Thrawn? The only why I can see is to put focus on one person. This seems dishonest. nor does it allievate Jhuyt roll. under those ground I reject this possibility. If Jhuyt is scum and Solar is scum then either a bus play could happen(which didn't) or they could protect each other. They could directly protect each other by offering counter arguments against both of them, (which only Jhuyt did in that one line lie) or indirectly by not bringing attention to each other(which would be a play that Solar made. I believe them both being scum is possible. Finally, if Jhuyt is scum and Solar is townie then by lying Jhuyt post (which occured before Solar) puts focus on Shady and potentially has some a townie on his side. Solar likewise either became a townie by his side(doubtful, because he didn't defend him against Shady's accusation) or Solar would of question his motive like he did with thrawn. I reject this possibility as stated above. This leads me to believe Jhuyt and Solar are Scum or Masons. Thoughts? Concerns? Did I miss something? I don't think Solar missed Jhuyt post because he was corresponding with Shady the entire page and part way through there correspondences Shady replied to Jhuyt. I want to emphasis I haven't look at the evidence agaisnt Thrawn thoroughly so I have no argument on him as scum or town at the moment. This appears to be his largest contribution to the thread. He has a premise and uses some facts to back it up. Most of the post is WIFOM and doesn't really contribute anything. The part I want to emphasize is the first part of his two-fold concern. "May main concern is two-fold: 1) Jhuyt claims Solar is just an emotional by his previous TL post history, which later Solar claims to be a deliberate act. Futhermore, skimming through Solar TL post history it doesn't seem that emotionally based. In fact, it is closer to his current professionalism. I believe Jhuyt defense of him is a blatant lie. 2) Solar questions why Thrawn is defending him, but not Jhuyt. Other people defend Solar has a bad townies, and to shape up his posting, while Jhuyt explained Solar behavior (falsely) as that is the type of person solar is." Now fast forward six hours to his next post: On August 16 2012 19:32 Archrun wrote: Alright after looking into Solar claim about a history with him and Jhuyt I can believe that Jhuyt was under the impression Solar could be emotionally. Therefore, one of my premise is incorrect and I must remove my claim towards them. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I look into evidence about Thrawn and there was 3 main points against him: He was fluff, motive concerns by Solar and Z-Boson questioning of him. I came to the conclusion that he has shown some dodgy behavior. The beginning of the thread there was a lot of posts claiming Thrawn to being very fluffy, but the beginning was very chaotic and Thrawn was the only one. His posted definitely, picked up later. When Solar questioned Thrawn motive for defending his anti-town behavior Thrawn claims he changed Thrawn from Scummy to town who doesn't know the tone of the game. No where does he explain what prompted him to change his opinion from scummy to bad townie. Z-Boson questioned Thrawn about why did he choose me and not other lurkers and an accusation that Thrawn dodged Golbat. Thrawn has not explained himself to Golbat's concern yet. Thrawn rebuttal was mine had the most merit. Thrawn proceed to explain why I was a good candidate, but not why the other lurkers where not as good candidates. For those reason I am currently at ##Vote Thrawn2112 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ochrow was the first to claim against me and soon afterwards Thrawn join in. Therefore, I believe Z-Boson question on why should I be the focus over other lurkers stand towards him. Also, why focus on lurker lynching instead of scum hunting? did you not have a read on anyone as scum? I don't feel like it was deflective because I brought up something that seemed wrong until solar set it straight(which I checked out). However, most people agreed that scumhunting is more than lynch lurking and there was quite a few people that had YH pegged as scum. If that is the case won't the safer play be to remain silent if I am scum? Also your example of it being beneficial for me to be to discover if they are masons assuming I am scum is unfair, because if I am scum then they would be either my partner which I am busing out of the blue or they are townies. If I am scum then I would want to make them look like scum, but in my argument I did not give a support to them being scum. But if I am a townie they discovering they are scum was be useful cause we would know who to lynch or if I was a townie knowing they are Masons would remove 2 people off a possible list of suspects leaving every townie that is not them 10 people to look at instead of 12. At the very start of this post he immediately refutes his previous case by saying "Alright after looking into Solar claim about a history with him and Jhuyt I can believe that Jhuyt was under the impression Solar could be emotionally." At this point from the start of the game until this post he has spent over 30 hours without contributing anything while appearing very active. Now moving forward to his case on Thrawn, the meat of it is in that Thrawn doesn't "explain what prompted him to change his opinion from scummy to bad townie." However if you read the quote regarding it in Archrun's post it is explaining exactly why. Just to confirm what I'm thinking, do we all trust solarsail's account of his first few posts, that he was trolling to get responses? I'm assuming we all do? Myself, I believe him. The rest of his case is just sheeping off of Solar and Z-Boson's claims against Thrawn.His very last post is a bunch of quotes that I honestly have a hard time following but again he sheeps off of another player's accusations. Tl;dr - Read the post and see why Archrun has been hiding his lack of contribution while appearing active. | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
Forgot the : | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
On August 17 2012 05:20 YourHarry wrote: I have to leave. I am already late, but at this point, I don't see any clear scum. I would much rather lynch a lurker. I think the best lurker lynch candidate is Golbat. Stutters and Jyhut don't have many posts, but at least they are here sometimes. On August 17 2012 05:21 YourHarry wrote: Having a lurker around that always has a potential to be mod-killed is dangerous. If golbat does not show up before deadline, I move to switch our votes to him. I disagree. You're right, having a lurker who is a potential mod-kill is dangerous, but not to the town. We have 0 control on if he is here or not. So if he does not show up and ends up getting mod-killed he's gone and we just lose one extra mislynch. If we lynch him, we're essentially trading a possible scumhit for a guaranteed mislynch and next to 0 information that the flip gives heading into d2. This feels more like you're trying to deny information than set up a good policy. If you really wanted to do a policy lynch you should have suggested it on Jhuyt or myself (obviously I would disagree with this, but from a YourHarry town standpoint it makes significantly more sense). We still get info due to actual interactions and accusations between the lurkers and other players while still enforcing the "post or you're dead" policy. | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
On August 18 2012 12:55 goodkarma wrote: @YourHarry: Any suggestions as to who this someone else is that we should lynch? My first thoughts are either Orchrow or you. You seem to be very interested in keeping thrawn alive as long as possible... I suggest you start making some meaningful suggestions as to who you feel looks scummier. And it would also be helpful if you commented on people's most recent cases against thrawn, Orchrow, and yourself instead of continuing to strive to keep Thrawn alive. There are situations here where the vigi still shouldn't claim. Like what if there is an sk, but the vigi hasn't used his shot yet? A vigi counter claim here would be terrible, as he could wind up rb'ed by scum and NK'ed before he can do anything. And if we wait, who's to say town doesn't get a successful medic save or rb? Or that scum or the sk (if he exists) doesn't just sit back and do nothing for one night? There's a few different ways that there could be an sk but fewer than two night kills. Waiting achieves nothing. My read, and the read of several of us here, is that thrawn is scum. It's time for him to go. Read through the case points against him, and show us why you feel he might be town. It's more productive than your WIFOM defense of thrawn you're presenting now. I agree 100% that if a Vig exists but didn't shoot Arch, they should NOT counter-claim. I disagree that waiting is fruitless and lynching thrawn is a good play currently. No matter how we spin it, Thrawn is now tied to Archrun's death. If Thrawn is town, he has no incentive to lie and claim a kill he didn't commit (likewise about being a 1shot vig [which really isn't that uncommon for balance purposes in minis, from what I've read >1shot Vigs are a rarity]). Now if we don't lynch Thrawn today his fate is directly tied to future NKs. If he's scum and another Vig took a shot last night it would be absolutely terrible play for him to claim the kill he had no knowledge of. A counter-claim if we have a vig essentially kills him for no value at all to the scum team. If 2 people die Night2 a Thrawn lynch is essentially a given Day 3 and we'll see then. If only one person dies it either means he's telling the truth or either the scumteam or SK decided to hold their shot to throw us off (good for us in that we save a night kill). Essentially it comes down to how certain we are that Thrawn is scum. If he flips red we're in a great position and have a lot of info to go off of. If he flips blue we've wasted Day 2 on a lynch that we could have gathered info by letting him live while trying to catch other scum. Currently I'd rather focus on other targets and see what we can do as opposed to gambling on this. I'm about to reread the thread and get some thoughts up on my reads, I just wanted to weigh in on this. | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
On August 18 2012 14:29 goodkarma wrote: @Stutters: I highly encourage you to read my case, which was posted just before the official day 2 post. There is strong reason to suspect that Thrawn is scum. I'll tell you what I told YourHarry: There is really no reason to wait. If after looking at my case you still feel that Thrawn isn't scum, I encourage you to share your defense of him with us. The biggest problem I see with your post is that I've already highlighted who all of the scum are. A cornered scum would have no problem lying about his role to get out of a lynch, and that's what I see is the case with Thrawn. That is a good case. However it backs up my point of not lynching Thrawn. If we pressure everyone for more content and inevitably fall back on that case (a very real possibility) then lynching Ochrow makes significantly more sense. Thrawn has 0 town cred and is not a threat at all to the town's direction today. If we lynch Ochrow instead and he flips red it all but confirms Thrawn as scum and puts YouHarry under great suspicion. I have no qualms if it is determined later on today that Thrawn is clearly the best lynch but deciding on it this early into the day is going to stifle discussion and give us less content heading into Day 3. | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
On August 18 2012 15:52 DarthPunk wrote: How about you claimed Vig because you are the Vig? Huge Slip. I take back all my points about waiting. I tried to give him the benefit of the doubt, but this is too much. I'm going to start looking more closely into filters to try and figure out a good target for after him | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
On August 18 2012 17:10 YourHarry wrote: Remaining player list, excluding myself: DarthPunk goodkarma Golbat thrawn2112 Jhuyt SolarSail Z-BosoN Stutters695 Ochrow Darth is almost for sure not the SK, especially because he was roleblocked and there was a second night kill. SK should also be very quick to dismiss any vigilante claim, because there were only two night kills. SK, if vig claim is true, should have expected 3 night kills. In this regard, Darth, Golbat, Solar and GK are likely candidates. Darth, for reason mentioned above, is not SK. Golbat I think is scum. Either Solar or GK could be SK. Also, assuming that SK was aiming for the scum, he must have thought that mkfuba is scum. In this respect, Solar or Ochrow could be the SK because they both believed my mason-read claim and may have thought that mkfuba who was suspicious of me was scum. This is, admittedly, a weak connection but I think this is a possibility. Solar also was one of the players who quickly dismissed Thrawn's vigilante claim. Z-boson hasn't posted today yet, but he seemed to suspect me on Day 1 so I don't think he would have targeted mkfuba as SK. So, unlikely to be the SK. Stutters makes this possibly suspicious post regarding SK on Day 1: He also ends up voting for Archrun, and may have thought that I was townie. Thus, Stutter targeting mkfuba, who was suspicious of me, could be consistent with Stutter being the SK. So, currently I think two likely SK candidates are Solar and Stutter and then maybe GoodKarma. For now though, we should focus more on lynching the scums than SK, as SK could help us target some of the scums. Only golbat called you out on this post so I want to second that since he had it in a spoiler and it seems like people missed it. Are you kidding me? This post isn't WIFOM? Please explain to me why if there is a SK he would denounce the possibility of a vig instead of letting that play out and identifying a scum for himself while knowing the truth? I'm not even going to go into the rest of this post as it's so out there everything will just be me answering your "what if" with another one. Now what really stands out to me in this post is trying to pin down what does Town Harry get from posting this? A plethora of hypotheticals that show Harry's opinions on possible SK's doesn't save the town tonight with a guaranteed hit on a lynch. The only potential upside to this is that it would sway the discussion away from him possibly getting himself mislynched however that isn't even pro-town as actually making a good case does the same thing without trying to misdirect the town. Now what would Scum Harry get out of this SK post? Let's assume for a minute that Thrawn is actually telling the truth and he has just been playing a terrible Vig. The scumteam would have killed mkfuba in that case. Mkfuba only focused on YourHarry and SolarSail before dying so I find it strange that Harry is still so focused on him. I'm going to go through filters and draw up some better cases after I run to the store, but just some food for thought. I'd wager that if Thrawn is actually Vig, YH is scum 100%. | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
Looking at his filter again his voting is just ridiculous. He starts in the thread by linking his filters (post 1) and addressing his different playstyles. To summarize my meta, in the first 2.5 games, I am quick to make accusations and switch my vote players with little explanation. I decided to change my meta in game 3 where I drew vanilla townie. I played more conservative to avoid suspicion. I am not sure which meta I will choose this game  Although its pretty obvious which meta he "chose" this game it got me thinking about his motives. Town Harry has no reason to hide how he'll be playing while Scum Harry has just left himself an out in case someone like Shady were to bring up discrepencies in his Meta later. The next thing that stood out to me was his early vote switching. Please note that these posts were sequential in his filter and his 3rd and 4th total since the start of the game. On August 15 2012 11:59 YourHarry wrote: @Z-boson, posting filters is pretty easy. Why not. @Shady Sands. You are accusing Solarsail of being hostile? You think scums are more likely to respond with hostility? Thrawn on the other hand is busy posting fluffs and WIFOM statement like "It could be that you, as mafia, know he is town and are taking advantage of solar's emotional reactions by drawing them out even further and immediately sidetracking everyone onto solar's case." ##Vote Thrawn On August 15 2012 12:03 YourHarry wrote: OK. ##Unvote ##Vote Solarsail "Imagine how scared of posting you would be if you'd signed up for your first game and rolled Mafia. Your posts would be short, infrequent, and not hold any information that disagrees with the general direction so as not to stand out." The bolded parts of this quote and the next one are my emphasis on what he omitted from the original posts. Note how the entirety of his reason for voting Thrawn is WIFOM but has only quote from Thrawn as evidence. That quote is about Shady challenging Solar so early. Shady, can you explain your reasoning for initially jumping all over solar? It could be that you, as mafia, know he is town and are taking advantage of solar's emotional reactions by drawing them out even further and immediately sidetracking everyone onto solar's case. . Note how he leaves the context of the quote out of his "case" because if you consider what Shady was tunneling Solar so hard about originally it was a pretty weak reason (He said Solar soft accused me of playing safe because I was scum during my first post (also the first of the game).)His next post is just saying "OK" before switching to Solar. Again his quote was taken out of context. Reading the many guides linked on the library which are incredbly helpful, the most important thing I saw is that the town needs to stay active and stay on point. If we are to lynch anyone it has to be because of real information and evidence, and that has to be readily available from the thread. If we're trying to learn we need a long record to practise analysing. Imagine how scared of posting you would be if you'd signed up for your first game and rolled Mafia. Your posts would be short, infrequent, and not hold any information that disagrees with the general direction so as not to stand out. In his first 4 posts he's done nothing at all pro-town. He's tried to mislead us twice with his quotes without ever even pressuring the people he's voted for. This also provides another motive from a scum perspective of devaluing his votes. By switching around all day when it came time to actually vote for the lynch no one even questioned why Harry had placed six votes throughout the day while only building a couple of real cases which were all very weak. His only other "contributions" for the next two hours are: spamming the thread with one liners and no real analysis accusing Mkfuba (confirmed town) of opportunistically jumping onto the Solar badnwagon while twitsting a fairly townie quote into a scum play. Relevant quotes are in spoilers. + Show Spoiler + On August 15 2012 13:28 YourHarry wrote: Actually I find mkfuba suspicious. Although I think Solar did act somewhat scummy (and I voted him at one point), I think Solar is town. There were four people who thought Solar was scum: Shady, YourHarry, thrawn, and mkfuba. After three people expressed suspicion on Solar, Mkfuba opportunistically but non-committingly fuels Solar bandwagon: On August 15 2012 12:33 mkfuba07 wrote: On August 15 2012 11:43 thrawn2112 wrote: Shady, can you explain your reasoning for initially jumping all over solar? It could be that you, as mafia, know he is town and are taking advantage of solar's emotional reactions by drawing them out even further and immediately sidetracking everyone onto solar's case. The problem with the second part of this post is that it's not Shady who is sidetracking the conversation. He asked a question and Solarsail is perpetuating the suspicion by not addressing it. Shady started it, Solar is keeping it going. Multiple people have told him to post better and he's ignored us/thrown our advice back in our faces with a snarky comment. No matter what, this isn't pro-town behaviour. My view on Shady's first accusation (that Solar was obliquely accusing Stutters) is that Shady was overthinking it. I didn't even get a hint of supposition that Solar was accusing Stutters. What makes Solar seem at all suspicious to me has been his reactions the whole time. Nothing scummy yet, but a stubborn refusal to actually participate in pro-town behaviour. [B]On August 16 2012 01:38 YourHarry wrote: Shady, regarding your accusation of me, the only thing that makes me scummy is this: Again, I was indeed guilty of this. But this was a result of my strong suspicion that Solar was town. I did realize I was taking things out of context when Mkfuba pointed this out. You accuse me of posting one liners. I often post one liners and not much information is available in the beginning of the day, so few sentences would suffice in explaining reads. One liners can have content. And agreeing with you so readily is not a scummy behavior. Me if anything as scum may even be reluctant to agree with people readily, unless they have a strong case, in fear that people may point things out. @Goodkarma. You did not find Solar scummy based on previous cases at all? What makes you so confident about town going in the wrong direction in accusing Solar. It is almost as if you know his alignment? Moving on to the next RL day (Aug 16 1AM TL time) his first post is just defending his ridiculous claim that Solarsail is town amidst his spam by saying that he caught a hint that GK and Solar were masons but decided against it when they accused him. The next 6 or 7 posts are all focused on his "case" on Goodkarma. His case entirely revolves around the fact that the breadcrumb he caught that no one else did confirms that GK must either be scum or him and Solar are masons. Throughout the day he tunnels GK while defending himself and adding no additional analysis or quesitoning. I'll have to continue this in about an hour but just a recap of through page 2 of his filter. He's voteswitched without explinations numerous times, misquoted people intentionally while voting against them. I posted earlier about his obsession with the SK I'd encourage everyone to read and I'd ask people to check out his filter yourselves and see the drastic inconsistencies. I realize this is inconvenient but I'll be back in about an hour. [b]##VOTE: YourHarry | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
##VOTE: YourHarry Additionally due to YH's activeness a flip gives us additional information, especially if he's scum. By the same reasoning an Obvious/Ochrow lynch if no one gets behind YH. | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
Reading the many guides linked on the library which are incredbly helpful, the most important thing I saw is that the town needs to stay active and stay on point. If we are to lynch anyone it has to be because of real information and evidence, and that has to be readily available from the thread. If we're trying to learn we need a long record to practise analysing. Imagine how scared of posting you would be if you'd signed up for your first game and rolled Mafia. Your posts would be short, infrequent, and not hold any information that disagrees with the general direction so as not to stand out. those parts should be bolded, not entire quotes | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
On August 20 2012 08:03 goodkarma wrote: @Stutters: Thank you for your case! But a couple things: First, Shady is dead... Second, I urge you to look into if his play has a scum agenda than if his play has some inconsistencies. Otherwise, for all we know YourHarry is playing a really, really bad town game. Upon re-reading your post, you actually seem to have done a decent job of this. My current read on YourHarry: I also believe that YourHarry is scum. Some things that have stuck out specifically to me (outside of "associative reads"): I do find it a little suspicious he tunneled me so hard with such a weak case early game. Especially considering his early pre-game comments. I could see him, as scum, believing I'd be an easy target based off my admittedly weak performance in NMM XXIII. However, the biggest move that could be from a scum agenda I've seen from YourHarry so far is his last minute vote switch to Shady day one. Offing the most vocal town presence day one was very beneficial to the scum team. His views on Thrawn and Ochrow seem very suspect by association, but keep in mind none of these players have flipped yet. I don't think this was really a large motivating factor in your read, but still I felt it was worth mentioning. With all that being said, I'm going to take a quick reassessment of YourHarry's filter before the voting deadline (in other words, in the upcoming hour). Just wanted to clarify. The bolded part about Shady wasn't calling him out. It was in my case that I put that I was bolding parts YH had omitted when making his first two "cases" to justify his votes. Unfortunately I fucked up the formatting and bolded the entire quote so that was me showing the parts he left out in EBWOP2. And my overarching themes for thinking he's scum are his repeated misdirection through quotes which serve no purpose to the town, his 6 page filter with no cases he's stuck behind. Every time he votes off of a "case" he conveniently finds something he's overlooked which makes it so he isn't tied to the vote ("It only showed Y was scum if X is town and I'm not sure about X now" and excuses along those lines). He's "caught" two breadcrumbs that the people in question denied were breadcrumbs at all to base cases off of. This provides scum Harry another way to back out of a read that could show he has knowledge he shouldn't. Obviously everyone isn't perfect but I see no town motive behind the great majority of his posts. | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
Wow I had the time wrong. I thought it was a 9EST lynch not 8.  And this is why at the start of D2 I encouraged people to not just lynch the obvious target. Gonna read over the filters and see if we can salvage this. Unless we get a medic save tonight we're down to 5/3 which means we're in MYLO tomorrow. | ||
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2610 Posts
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Stutters695
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I'm not advocating a no lynch, just want it clarified before crunch time. | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
On August 21 2012 09:40 DarthPunk wrote: I was roleblocked again. And I don't understand the jhuyt NK at all. I was expecting either myself or goodkarma to get shot. I am guessing it was to try and confuse us. Ditto. I was expecting one of you guys and if they were going to try and throw us off probably a vote on me. Kinda surprised Jhuyt of all people. That post by GK right before the deadline is good though. It really comes down to if you believe GK is town or not and I currently do. I'm going to re-read the thread and try and get some better ideas. This is our last shot town, lets make it count. | ||
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Stutters695
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On August 21 2012 17:59 goodkarma wrote: I encourage everyone to put together their reads, as there's still time for you to express your viewpoints before we consolidate our vote in the last 24 hours of the day. And obviously supporting or dissenting case points towards this case would be much appreciated. I notice YH completely ignored my case against him from D2 (Previous case in spoiler). I felt he was suspicious day 1, our best lynch day 2 and that hasn't changed. + Show Spoiler + YourHarry is still my best vote. This is going to be a long case but I'm abridging the non major parts due to wanting to give you guys time to read it. Ask and I'll go into even more detail on parts i skimmed. Looking at his filter again his voting is just ridiculous. He starts in the thread by linking his filters (post 1) and addressing his different playstyles. Although its pretty obvious which meta he "chose" this game it got me thinking about his motives. Town Harry has no reason to hide how he'll be playing while Scum Harry has just left himself an out in case someone like Shady were to bring up discrepencies in his Meta later. The next thing that stood out to me was his early vote switching. Please note that these posts were sequential in his filter and his 3rd and 4th total since the start of the game. The bolded parts of this quote and the next one are my emphasis on what he omitted from the original posts. Note how the entirety of his reason for voting Thrawn is WIFOM but has only quote from Thrawn as evidence. That quote is about Shady challenging Solar so early. . Note how he leaves the context of the quote out of his "case" because if you consider what Shady was tunneling Solar so hard about originally it was a pretty weak reason (He said Solar soft accused me of playing safe because I was scum during my first post (also the first of the game).) His next post is just saying "OK" before switching to Solar. Again his quote was taken out of context. In his first 4 posts he's done nothing at all pro-town. He's tried to mislead us twice with his quotes without ever even pressuring the people he's voted for. This also provides another motive from a scum perspective of devaluing his votes. By switching around all day when it came time to actually vote for the lynch no one even questioned why Harry had placed six votes throughout the day while only building a couple of real cases which were all very weak. His only other "contributions" for the next two hours are: spamming the thread with one liners and no real analysis accusing Mkfuba (confirmed town) of opportunistically jumping onto the Solar badnwagon while twitsting a fairly townie quote into a scum play. Relevant quotes are in spoilers. + Show Spoiler + On August 15 2012 13:28 YourHarry wrote: Actually I find mkfuba suspicious. Although I think Solar did act somewhat scummy (and I voted him at one point), I think Solar is town. There were four people who thought Solar was scum: Shady, YourHarry, thrawn, and mkfuba. After three people expressed suspicion on Solar, Mkfuba opportunistically but non-committingly fuels Solar bandwagon: On August 16 2012 01:38 YourHarry wrote: Shady, regarding your accusation of me, the only thing that makes me scummy is this: Again, I was indeed guilty of this. But this was a result of my strong suspicion that Solar was town. I did realize I was taking things out of context when Mkfuba pointed this out. You accuse me of posting one liners. I often post one liners and not much information is available in the beginning of the day, so few sentences would suffice in explaining reads. One liners can have content. And agreeing with you so readily is not a scummy behavior. Me if anything as scum may even be reluctant to agree with people readily, unless they have a strong case, in fear that people may point things out. @Goodkarma. You did not find Solar scummy based on previous cases at all? What makes you so confident about town going in the wrong direction in accusing Solar. It is almost as if you know his alignment? Moving on to the next RL day (Aug 16 1AM TL time) his first post is just defending his ridiculous claim that Solarsail is town amidst his spam by saying that he caught a hint that GK and Solar were masons but decided against it when they accused him. The next 6 or 7 posts are all focused on his "case" on Goodkarma. His case entirely revolves around the fact that the breadcrumb he caught that no one else did confirms that GK must either be scum or him and Solar are masons. Throughout the day he tunnels GK while defending himself and adding no additional analysis or quesitoning. I'll have to continue this in about an hour but just a recap of through page 2 of his filter. He's voteswitched without explinations numerous times, misquoted people intentionally while voting against them. I posted earlier about his obsession with the SK I'd encourage everyone to read and I'd ask people to check out his filter yourselves and see the drastic inconsistencies. I realize this is inconvenient but I'll be back in about an hour. Picking up where I left off: YH thinks GK and Solar are masons from a breadcrumb only he caught. Then when both Solar and GK accuse him for this really weak accusation he claims GK must be scum since masons aren't a possibility. His reasoning is because GK thought Solar was bad town and not scum GK must know Solar's alignment (This is the first real scumhunting YH has done at all). The rest of his post is just WIFOM and accusing GK based on fluff in GK's posts while ignoring the main points behind the posts. This is yet another example of YH trying to be active without contributing. I'll admit this is a weaker part of my case however when compounded with everything else it fits his style this game. Moving on he switches his vote onto Shady (vote #4 on day 1) with a reasonable justification, I just wanted to point out that he had voted again. After more filler he switches his vote to Archrun while admitting he hadn't even read everything related to it. Again he's devaluing his vote and leaving himself an out in case he needs to switch votes again. On August 17 2012 08:00 YourHarry wrote: Honestly I did not have time to read everything, but this seems alarmingly scummy to me. I had an experience in one of my earlier games where scum was basically trying to benefit from mislynch. ##Unvote ##Vote Archrun This isn't even the main thing I took out of this post though. His entire case on GK was based off of the fact GK thought Solar was bad town when everyone else thought he was scum. It's funny that he should mention that Arch could be scum based off of previous games when he neglected to mention that in the same D1 of the same game (XXI) a similar scenario happened with a townie named Tube who ended up getting cleared, then lynched D3 before flipping town when people were saying it was bad play d1. Now this could honestly be him forgetting about it or thinking it was a fluke but given his inconsistent posting this game and his convenient use of only the parts of quotes that furthered his "cases" I'm starting to see a pattern that points towards him withholding this information to further his own goals. On August 17 2012 14:11 YourHarry wrote: I have additional evidence why I think Thrawn is town, which confirm my scum read on Archrun. Minutes before the deadline the vote count was tied between Shady and Thrawn, with four votes each. Unless three scums were all already voting for ShadySands, if Thrawn is indeed scum, one of his scum partners would have tried to move his vote to ShadySands. While Shady was set to be lynched because he was the first player to receive 4 votes, it would have been still dangerous from scum's perspective because all it takes is one townie to switch his vote to Thrawn and the scum would be lynched. But this did not happen, which is consistent with Thrawn being town. Two possible scenarios that counter this argument are that: 1) Scums were simply not around to make last minute changes in this vote. This seems possible because it was pretty close to the deadline when I changed my vote from Shady to Archrun and Golbat placed his vote on Thrawn. This is not completely out of the question, but A) considering that scums still had one hour window to make the move and B) that scum Thrawn means that his scum partners would have been very well aware that Thrawn was a strong lynch candidate (based on discussion that happened hours prior to the deadline), I suspect that Tharwn's scum teammates would have been watching things closely. 2) Thrawn's scum partners were too hesitant to switch their votes, in fear that it would make them suspicious. This is possible, but maybe it would not have been too difficult to fabricate some wishy-washy with reasons for change in opinion. And I do realize that by my own analysis, my last minute switch in voting from Archrun to Shady could make me suspicious... But at this point, my scum reads were Archrun > Shady > Thrawn. So when it looked like Archrun lynch seemed impossible, I wanted to make sure Archrun lynch over Thrawn lynch happens. But in summary, until I changed my vote from Archrun to Shady, which happened like 2 minutes before the deadline, the scums had some window of opportunity to switch their votes to Shady (unless all three were already voting for Shady) in order to provide a some protection against last minutes switch of votes to their scum partner Thrawn. This is not a fool-proof evidence, as there are possible exceptions listed above 1) and 2) but I think this should render additional evidence that Thrawn is town (and thus both Thrawn and Shady are town) which would confirm my suspicion that Archrun is attempting to benefit from mislynching two townies. This is a great post too. "I'm sure Archrun is scum and Thrawn is town because if not someone would have vote switched onto Sandy to 100% save Thrawn." He then posts some elaborate WIFOM to explain his claim. Possible yes but YH even pointed out the flaws with that plan (again leaving himself an option for when the flip happens and he's wrong.) YH then catches another nonexistant role-claim from Thrawn. After tunneling Thrawn for a bit he posts about Golbat and Thrawn as a scumteam. On August 18 2012 16:12 YourHarry wrote: @Darth While it is true that I may have briefly mentioned my town read on Archrun on Day 1, when deciding to lynch between Archrun and Shady, at the time it was only a mild town read based on the fact that explanations given by Thrawn made logical sense to me. After Archrun's post outlining what seemed to be his scum plan of action, Thrawn was indeed almost as good as confirmed townie in my mind. And this was due to my thinking that Archrun was scum. But I don't think I ever claimed that he is a confirmed townie. I did say that he is a confirmed townie if Archrun flipped scum, which he didn't. Recent postings make me think that Thrawn and Golbat are on the same team. This post stands out: Obviously, from my perspective, this only sounds like Golbat is trying to mislynch me knowing that Thrawn will flip scum. There are other two players who suspect me of being scum with Thrawn: Darth and GK. But despite my previous suspicion of GK, their outlining of cases actually make some logical sense right now and they seem to be actually trying to scum hunt. (And I admit that I may look scummy right now for flip flopping my vote and trying to defend Thrawn). On the other hand, Golbat suddenly shows up and basically sheeps other people's cases. Only thing that seems a bit weird is that he is one of the first players to cast a vote against Thrawn, when day 2 opened, after Darth. However, this may be mafia QT planned action to encourage Golbat to bus against Thrawn - one who is likely to be suspected anyway due to Day 1 mislynch of Shady. More importantly, Thrawn suddenly suspects Golbat, because he is lurking. Even though there are other lurkers, he specifically picks out Golbat just because he recently posted. While I agree that pressuring lurkers is a good strategy, Thrawn did not have any interaction with Golbat... but all of the sudden, he singles him out. Thrawn at this point knows that his lynch is imminent, and that there is nothing he can do to avoid flipping red. This to me seems like his attempt to distance himself from his scum partner in Golbat: Taken together, I think this strongly suggests that Thrawn and Golbat are scums together. Again he posts another case that relys on what should be unknown information for the case to hold any water. This isn't scumhunting. This is posting a bunch of What Ifs to make it look like it's useful. So what happens to this case now that Thrawn has flipped Vig. It's completely worthless, just another post of YH looking active without contributing. Let me ask the town something. What does town Harry contribute with this post unless he's guessed correctly? Is it really a stretch to assume that Harry knew Thrawn would flip town so he could get out of contributing once again? Likewise with the previous post, he implied that if Thrawn is town Archrun must be scum. If he doesn't know that Thrawn is town neither of these plans make any sense. Once or twice I can overlook and just say that even trying to explain it with WIFOM is pointless but between everything I've went over so far I'd consider this more icing on the cake. Note I'm posting this now because I want to see YH's reactions before lynch time and I need to make sure you guys have time to read it. I've only been through Pg4 of his filter with this case and I'm having a hard time believing he could be town. Please, please, please don't just skim it over and think because it's long and full of quotes its good. Read it and judge for yourself. Just for emphasis today if we get it wrong we lose so be sure he's the best choice in your mind. And if you don't think he is, show why he isn't. ##Vote: YourHarry | ||
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Stutters695
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I'll concede that he hasn't been fishing as bad as it felt like he has been based off of the posts themselves, but the style in which he is posting is troubling. Obviously the Thrawn "breadcrumb" and there was also one about Mason's earlier on. It's never just about finding scum with him, he is always trying to incorporate a blue role or masons or something along those lines that both give him a way to back out of whatever "read" he has and try to confirm who is what at the same time. Something just feels off about it, but thank you for bringing that up, a bit of conformation bias on my end. | ||
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On August 23 2012 08:57 DarthPunk wrote: errr. this seemed to easy in retrospect. I expect a mislynch. anyway GG> Well we don't have anyone to blame but ourselves. We let lurkers get away with it all game, Thrawn's absolutely terrible vig shot cost us a day and everyone was sheeping everyone. | ||
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Walls of text incoming shortly. | ||
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On August 26 2012 04:12 Z-BosoN wrote: I'm still here, I've just said all I could. I've also presented you with a perfect winning scenario: Solar and Golbat can't both be town, this is guaranteed. If they were, the whole scum team would just join Golbat's vote on Solar and win with 4 votes. So one of the two is scum. Here is what happens if you lynch solar: 1) I am roleblocker and am telling the truth. He will be scum, and will testify that I'm townie, and we will have to look for the other scum. 2) I am lying about being roleblocker, and lied about roleblocking Solar. If solar is innocent, then Golbat is most definitely scum, and I am most definitely scum, GG. Win-win. I don't understand why you are going for Golbat. ##Vote Solarsail We should either be lynching Z-Boson or Solarsail today without question. Currently its a 5/2 split. If we go after Golbat and he isn't scum for some reason unless there is no night kill again we put ourselves back into LYLO at 3/2 where every town has to hit the same scum or its GG. If we lynch Solarsail or Z-Boson and we hit the wrong one, we still end up at LYLO 3/2 but we have essentially confirmed a scum (town has 0 reason to lie about being roleblocked or roleblocking in the circumstances it happened in). We simply lynch the other person next day and at least salvage it to 2/1 pretty easily. Note: everything from here on is WIFOM on trying to reason who to lynch, but it should be clear that one of them has to die. So in my mind it becomes a question of if we should believe Z-Boson or Solarsail. Looking back at the facts we have these roleblocks claimed by the people who got blocked: N1: DarthPunk N2: Obvious, Darthpunk (Z-Boson claims he RB'd YH) N3: None (Z-Boson claims he RB'd Solar, solar denies) It's pretty safe to assume DarthPunk is telling the truth. He's had a pretty strong town presence all game and would be a fairly good RB target. So that leaves 1 unexplained RB N2 and N3. If Obvious is telling the truth that backs Solar claiming Z-Boson is lying about his RBs and he's scum. If he's not it means both Solar and Obvious are lying and its hard to believe the scums would commit themselves together on something that's easily verifiable. Of course the converse is if Z-Boson is telling the truth we lynch our RB in exchange for a gauranteed scum kill next round. I'm going to reread their filters now to figure out who I think we should lynch but I encourage everyone to consider one of those two as our target today. | ||
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Stutters695
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Solarsail's filter is the same way as YH's in regards to each other. He doesn't focus YH AT ALL. He even goes so far as to say he had a soft town read on YH D1 and didn't think he was scum D2. On August 18 2012 10:28 Solarsail wrote: The Archrun death completely validates gk's post. I was already wavering on Thrawn yesterday early on and Ochrow's most recent post (before GK even said anything) I'm less convinced on YourHarry since there is no direct link and I had a soft town read from yesterday, but there's two good candidates right there. Lol Thrawn your vigilante claim is ridiculous. Vigilantes do not reveal that they are vigilantes over such a trivial matter as defending themselves, as the role is so powerful that scum have no choice but to kill you immediately. ##Vote: Thrawn ##FoS: Ochrow All of his cases have been weak/nonexistant and against confirmed town until he sheeps a vote on YH when its obvious he's going to die. Since this he's again contributed nothing except saying Z-Boson lied. Another interesting thing to note is that YH tunneled Golbat before switching to Solarsail before he died. This doesn't confirm Golbat as just a super terrible town, however if Solarsail should flip red it almost certainly does. Thus I think everyone should vote Solarsail. If its wrong and he flips town then we have our lynch for tomorrow (Z-Boson) but if he flips red which I think is likely it essentially confrims Golbat as terrible town and confirms Z-Boson as RB while also leaving Obvious with a major thing to explain. ##Vote Solarsail | ||
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Why would YH distance himself from Golbat by accusing him instead of trying to do something similar with the third scum who isn't lurking and asking to get poilcy lynched like Golbat is. It doesn't make sense at all. We should have policy lynched him d1 or d2 yes but having more info on more people before a LYLO or MYLO is only beneficial. Lynching Golbat we get nothing unless he flips red and if he doesn't we've just wasted a lynch and put ourselves against the chopping block. | ||
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##Unvote ##Vote Golbat | ||
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@GK & DP Well played, sorry for arguing with you so much towards the end. Clearly I need to work on recognizing blue roles because at most I had one of you as a JK. From a noob VT perspective lynching Golbat did seem like a shitty decision without the last RB coming in to verify his lynches. Rum and hindsight give me 20/20 so in retrospect I should have realized that given how adamant you guys were and my town read on you that you probably knew something I didn't instead of trying to come up with ways that you could be wrong. After the Thrawn mislynch though I was scared you guys were leading the town into another Thrawn type lynch where a "feeling" was going to trump getting the maximum amount of information for town. I feel like I should have argued for a YH lynch much stronger on D2 instead of just saying "hey, here's why lynching Thrawn is bad. Brb you guys decide." That was definitely a mistake. @BlazingHand Sorry I only used your coaching once. Since this was my first online game I really wanted to try and wing it on my own because I probably would have asked so many questions that I was basically asking you to play for me otherwise. That said I'm more than open to any critique in regards to building cases and recognizing scumtells. Ideally I'd be more active but that wasn't really an option during this game unfortunately. @Everyone else GG, thanks for playing. It was a lot of fun and I feel like I learned quite a bit. Thanks for hosting Marv, Zent and Kei. | ||
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