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Ladies and gentlemen of the class of Newbie 24,
I haven't done this replacement thing before so I'll be trying to get the hang of it quickly. From what I can see in the thread (I have been reading but not analyzing since the game began) there was a great amount of suspicion regarding my predecessor that I might need to alleviate.
I'll be working on my first analysis/case post for a while, but in the mean time please try to keep in mind that the inactivity of Ochrow (and the previously mentioned TL temp ban) was not alignment indicative. I have a couple of filters I am currently interested in. Posting now just so you know I'm here.
Some quick notes before I move forward:
>Newbie 21 I was veteran, died to D1 lynch because I wasn't there to defend/claim
>Newbie 22 I was vanilla, died to NK night 3 or 4
>Normal Mini hosted by GMarshal starts tomorrow and I've been signed up for that for a while.
>Now I am here as a replacement in 24.
EBHTDP: Hello Darth!
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On August 19 2012 07:01 thrawn2112 wrote:Z-boson (or anyone else) could you explain to me in greater detail what ochrow's lie was? You said it was in his aug 17 5:54 post. I haven't seen anything that qualifies as a lie but if there is a lie, I'd like to know because I think if someone is caught in a lie they should be lynched. I'm going to go through that post and bold anything that seems weird. Ochrow's post + Show Spoiler +On August 17 2012 05:54 Ochrow wrote:On Archrun: Well for starters I am going to go ahead and ##Unvote. For while I'm still suspicious of Archrun for reasons very similar to those posted above, he was very lurky at a time that I didn't feel like I had any good scum reads (yes shady that means I didn't agree with your witch hunts but that doesn't make me scum. . . ) and once he finally stopped lurking I didn't feel his post carried much weight and so I felt that it was just a filler post pointing out some random person to make him seem less suspicious, I don't feel I have enough to vote him at the moment. Now before people start saying that I am flip flopping and that is scum behavior or whatever that argument is I would just like to point out my reasoning for voting Arch because it is somewhat separate from my reasoning for suspecting him. The reason I went and changed my FoS to a Vote was because I really had no idea how much time we had left, I unfortunately have no perception of the passage of time so I thought that the game had already been going on for long enough that the end might come while I was asleep which it almost did as I only just woke up. And so I wanted to make sure I voted as required. On shady: At the moment I can't be sure if Shady is scum or just crazy aggressive townie though at the moment I am leaning slightly towards townie for the same reasoning I used earlier in the game: Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:
My two cents on Shady:
My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. However I do feel that his aggressiveness has progressed to a point where it is almost damaging. The case that he laid down on Thrawn and I was not much different from his original argument against Solar, it was based off of little evidence (oh they both posted at the same time and the second guy read the first ones post and had insider information because he restated stuff that Ochrow had said in a PUBLIC forum) and Shady attacked it with a witch hunt mentality. It seems that Shady is like a shark waiting to smell blood and as soon as he does he just attacks immediately, at least that is the way it seems to me. But nonetheless I still don't feel that this is necessarily scum play, just bad play, but if we don't find any really solid scum (I am not currently sold on any of the reads as I will explain below) I can see him as a potentially good lynch. On Thrawn: I really can't get a read on Thrawn. To be honest when I first read Shady's post I almost instantly began to feel that Thrawn was scum but after reading his defense I do not think that he is. But I will say that I find him a bit too sheepish. It seems to me that anytime he a read that might be right he just jumps on the bandwagon without posting much of anything different unless heavily prodded, so I feel that this is something we need to look out for because it does feel somewhat scummy. On the case against Thrawn and I: I feel like once again Shady is reading too much into things. As far as the combined case claiming that we are both scum and are working together goes it is based almost entirely off of the timing of our post and the fact that Thrawn copied what I said. However, saying that we are obviously working together makes no sense when it is based purely off of the fact that the second person, in this case Thrawn, merely rewords a public post that I made. I can understand why you would be a bit suspicious, but by your logic one scum could just go around copying and rewording the posts of every person in the game and would therefore have to be in secret contact with every single one of them. The fact of the matter is that there was no insider information that was shared all that happened was that Thrawn piggybacked on somebody else's post and just agree with them. As for my fair and balanced posts or however it was that Shady described them, I simply have not been able to divine that much from what most people are saying, though I will admit to being a timid poster. But at the moment I don't feel I have solid reads on pretty much anyone and so the result of that is I try not to alienate people, though I understand why Shady would be suspicious of that because his goal seems to be to piss off everybody and alienate them all. On YourHarry: As far as the stuff from early on goes I believe his explanation in that he had a mason misread and I think that was it, and as I said before while he was posting very short messages he really didn't appear to have much to say outside of those short messages, but going by his posting history it looks like as soon as he started to get actual reads he began to post them. I feel that his swingyness is suspicious and that his posts haven't been great, particularly the case against GK, but I don't really get a scum read from him. On JHuyt: At the moment he and Golbat are on the top of the Lurker List but I don't have much more than that. However, I don't feel that Archrun's case against him has any merit in light of what Solar has said about his history, and I felt the same way before anyways. On Golbat: I can't really get much of a read because he does only have two posts and even in those two posts he doesn't really do much. He has a one line accusation of thrawn and a few really short reads on people that have been pointed out as big suspects but it is so little that I can't really pull much from it but I don't think he is scum but if he only does two posts a day then I'm tempted to lynch just to narrow things down. So just to wrap it up my top choices for lynches would be Arch, Golbat, and Shady in that order. But I do not feel strongly about the Shady lynch at all, I just think that if he keeps up his witch hunt mentality it could be damaging. So primarily I feel we should lynch Arch or Golbat, Arch for my earlier reasoning and pretty much the same stuff that Stutters said and Golbat for being a lurker. The first bold edit is an odd thing to say as it sounds like he is already trying to preempt counter arguments, but I think a town player could have done it. The only weird thing about it is its close proximity to the 2nd bold edit, which I honestly have no idea what to make of on it's own. But seeing as how they are two strange comments close to each other and regarding the same topic, it makes me a little suspicious that they are excuses (scum statements) rather than reasons (town statements.) The third bold edit when he's talking about me: "It seems to me that anytime he a read that might be right he just jumps on the bandwagon without posting much of anything different unless heavily prodded." This is just not true. Either ochrow is misrepresenting me, or he didn't read the thread. He made this statement after I voted for shady, and that was anything but a bandwagon vote. In fact a lot of people have described it as an OMGUS vote. I can't see how anyone could say I've been bandwagoning if they've read my reasons for voting. On the next bold edit: ("The fact of the matter is that there was no insider information that was shared all that happened was that Thrawn piggybacked on somebody else's post and just agree with them.") The context for this was defending the accusation that he and I were sharing a qt. He says that "Thrawn piggybacked on somebody else's post." To me this seems like a bad argument and possibly him trying to deflect everyone onto my case. To say "the fact of the matter" is a very strongly and clearly worded statement that expresses that whatever claim comes next is undeniable truth. Why would ochrow's defense of the "thrawn/ochrow share a qt" claim be him saying that the only possible explanation is that I piggybacked onto his claim? This strikes me as a suspicious defense.
I was reading YH's filter and then I followed a thought and ended up at this quoted post that pretty much summarized some general concerns with Ochraw. Thrawn has also stated that he will vote for me depending upon what I say. So I want to go back to this for a moment and try to see what Thrawn is seeing.
The first part of the post written by Ochrow does seem a CYA move, that much I can agree on. I don't see it as alignment indicative but I agree that when taken in context with other clues it could point towards a scum alignment. I know in my past game my inactivity due to RL concerns was interpreted as scummy and I had to do a lot of talking to defend myself from being high up on the lynch list. Ochrow's post seems to preempt that, which of course is sort of frowned upon in this game but we are people and people have stuff to do. The general feeling I get from this entire course of argument is that both Ochrow and Thrawn were trying to distance themselves from each other.
Knowing my own alignment and Thawn's vig claim leads me to the following conclusion regarding the face off with Ochraw: Two misguided townies staring each other down is my best assessment of this situation at the moment. The coincidental post timing was just that: a coincidence.
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Goodkarma is at the top of my suspects list right now.
+ Show Spoiler [the most ridiculous thing ever] +On August 18 2012 10:32 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 10:16 thrawn2112 wrote:-snip- Mkfuba made it very clear that he thought I was town, and he also voted against shady. According to the reasoning that darthpunk was using before the night post, shouldn't darthpunk also have thought mkfuba was scum? Nothing was said about mkfuba, and he was killed during the night cycle. Mkfuba wrote out the longest and strongest defense of me, and he is the one who got killed during the night. Why wasn't Archrun the one the mafia killed? Because I killed him with my 1 bullet received from my being Town Vigilante. It was completely reasonable for me to do that from a town thrawn perspective. I was already suspicious of Archrun because of his first few posts. I thought since before the lnych that there was a scum mission to get me lynched. Archrun was one of the first people to vote thrawn. Before the vote ended he stated that if shady is town, then thrawn should be lynched. After the lynch I began to focus on him, and he never replied to my posts. Killing him ended up being the wrong decision, but it was clearly in line with what my past reads on Archrun were. On August 18 2012 10:03 DarthPunk wrote:
Your Harry made an entire case about you being town which was based on Archrun being scum.
Shady had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town.
Archrun had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town.
Mkfuba07 had a scum read on Your Harry. Dead. Confirmed town. Mkfuba may have had a scum read on yourharry, but he VOTED for shady (who I voted for) and VERY STRONGLY defended me. He was killed, and flipped town. Why would I as scum thrawn kill mkfuba who was the strongest defender of me being town? Okay. So thrawn just claimed Vigilante. Guess what? That puts him in an even worse spot. Because if he were to look at my case against him, there is pretty strong evidence that him and Ochrow share a QT. Meaning that if they're not masons, they are scum. @thrawn: Thanks for clearing up that you're not a mason  . ##Vote: thrawn2112And, I've already said it once, but I'll say it again: ##FoS: Ochrow##FoS: YourHarryI'd be happy to see any of them lynched as I'm certain they're all scum.
I'm just trying to wrap my head around this post, so bear with me.
GK is convinced that Thrawn and Ochrow (now me) are of the same alignment. If we're not mason buddies, then we're scum together, and one of those scums is a vigilante? Is anyone else seeing how this is the most ridiculous claim ever? If we are backing up to question ourselves: "Is Thrawn actually a vigilante?" then I have something to say regarding that. It's a lot easier to prove you're a vigilante if you make a believable breadcrumb that when revealed shows you haven't lied, but we're in a pickle as far as that's concerned because all we seem to have is a weak breadcrumb and Thrawn's word that he is a vig and spent his one shot last night.
On top of that, GK is CERTAIN of my alignment as scum. It seems that he knows more about me than I do, and I suggest everyone take a good hard look at GK today and see if you can agree that he's being pretty scummy here.
##VOTE: goodkarma
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On August 20 2012 00:17 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 20 2012 00:00 Obvious.660 wrote:Goodkarma is at the top of my suspects list right now. + Show Spoiler [the most ridiculous thing ever] +On August 18 2012 10:32 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 10:16 thrawn2112 wrote:-snip- Mkfuba made it very clear that he thought I was town, and he also voted against shady. According to the reasoning that darthpunk was using before the night post, shouldn't darthpunk also have thought mkfuba was scum? Nothing was said about mkfuba, and he was killed during the night cycle. Mkfuba wrote out the longest and strongest defense of me, and he is the one who got killed during the night. Why wasn't Archrun the one the mafia killed? Because I killed him with my 1 bullet received from my being Town Vigilante. It was completely reasonable for me to do that from a town thrawn perspective. I was already suspicious of Archrun because of his first few posts. I thought since before the lnych that there was a scum mission to get me lynched. Archrun was one of the first people to vote thrawn. Before the vote ended he stated that if shady is town, then thrawn should be lynched. After the lynch I began to focus on him, and he never replied to my posts. Killing him ended up being the wrong decision, but it was clearly in line with what my past reads on Archrun were. On August 18 2012 10:03 DarthPunk wrote:
Your Harry made an entire case about you being town which was based on Archrun being scum.
Shady had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town.
Archrun had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town.
Mkfuba07 had a scum read on Your Harry. Dead. Confirmed town. Mkfuba may have had a scum read on yourharry, but he VOTED for shady (who I voted for) and VERY STRONGLY defended me. He was killed, and flipped town. Why would I as scum thrawn kill mkfuba who was the strongest defender of me being town? Okay. So thrawn just claimed Vigilante. Guess what? That puts him in an even worse spot. Because if he were to look at my case against him, there is pretty strong evidence that him and Ochrow share a QT. Meaning that if they're not masons, they are scum. @thrawn: Thanks for clearing up that you're not a mason . ##Vote: thrawn2112And, I've already said it once, but I'll say it again: ##FoS: Ochrow##FoS: YourHarryI'd be happy to see any of them lynched as I'm certain they're all scum. I'm just trying to wrap my head around this post, so bear with me. GK is convinced that Thrawn and Ochrow (now me) are of the same alignment. If we're not mason buddies, then we're scum together, and one of those scums is a vigilante? Is anyone else seeing how this is the most ridiculous claim ever? If we are backing up to question ourselves: "Is Thrawn actually a vigilante?" then I have something to say regarding that. It's a lot easier to prove you're a vigilante if you make a believable breadcrumb that when revealed shows you haven't lied, but we're in a pickle as far as that's concerned because all we seem to have is a weak breadcrumb and Thrawn's word that he is a vig and spent his one shot last night. On top of that, GK is CERTAIN of my alignment as scum. It seems that he knows more about me than I do, and I suggest everyone take a good hard look at GK today and see if you can agree that he's being pretty scummy here. ##VOTE: goodkarma Are you saying that goodkarma thought that I was a vig and that I was scum? I didn't get that from gk's post. Actually gk seemed to completely distrust my vig claim. I don't think I understand your argument...could you explain it again?
The short answer, since I have to leave for a few hours, is:
What possible motivation is there for putting two people I am confident are town on the same list and claiming with absolute certainty that they are all scum. The only answer is: it comes from someone who knows their alignments. Scum motivation.
Notice how a mislynch on me can be cast aside as "he was a lurker anyway" among the other points brought up against Ochrow. Notice how a mislynch on you can be cast aside as "his vig claim wasn't strong enough and his breadcrumb was weak so we had no reason to believe him anyway". Goodkarma has a history of policy talk that really gets the town no where, followed up by going after lurkers.
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Holy shit, I've been in the game for 7 hours and have 3 posts and am already getting called out for lurking. You guys are doing an incredible job at that policy shit.
I'm just gonna get real with you for a minute, sons. The rest of the you seem to think that killing off the closest thing you have to a confirmed town member (Thrawn) is a good idea and are still holding what I can tell you was simply piss-poor town play from Ochrow against me, the vanilla manilla town member with no super powers. One town lynch today, one town lynch tomorrow, and scum are laughing all the way to the bank.
+ Show Spoiler [in which gk holds a grudge] +On August 20 2012 07:03 goodkarma wrote:@SolarSail: Show nested quote +On August 20 2012 06:44 Solarsail wrote:
My current vote, thrawn. He did a very poor job of defending himself initially with the WIFOM and the claim (which if real is both highly convenient and misplaced), but then he's improved by responding to more accusations. I know 'lack of reading' is a general accusation against him but D1 I thought he was responding quite well, in full and with evidence, to all questions asked. So I would say it's just a D2 behaviour to be missing things a little.
I agree with much of gk's posting minus the initial shared QT accusation because that is unlikely to have produced the coincidental posts with the same agenda. The lying to us, lurking, nonaggression and general avoidance of Ochrow/Obvious stands out a lot more (oh and the OMGUS vote) and YH has demonstrated some serious read errors and flip flops if he is indeed town. So my case against Thrawn is mostly by association with YH and Ochrow than directly. I will keep my vote on him because it is a combined one from gk's case and thrawn's individual behaviour. However /unlike/ GK I will not switch around as people's defences go up and down with each post. I will be around at the deadline but I don't plan to switch.
The lurkers simply have not posted enough to make any case as strong as vs Thrawn or vs Obvious so I can't justify voting for them instead of those two. This is possibly by design; if so they are lucky that D1 was intense and D2 was focused on a single case to avoid attention.
So, in other words, you're saying that Thrawn looks scummy by association with Obvious and YourHarry? I've already mentioned this before, but you should vote your strongest scum read. Voting because of association, when none of the suspects have actually flipped, can be dangerous. I've already described how this could cause bias, and it is one of the reasons for switching my vote. Ochrow just outright is a stronger scum read than Thrawn for me right now. I don't follow your logic when you say you won't switch your vote, when it seems you already have a stronger scum read on Ochrow/Obvious than on Thrawn. If your read is solely based off "association," then I would urge you to reconsider your vote. And regarding my vote switch, I'm not following a policy of "present your defense and I won't vote for you." But the fact that Ochrow, and now Obvious, have not presented a defense of any kind to the case points against him gives me a stronger scum read on him. His choice to afk from thread until after the vote tells me he's trying to buy enough time to survive today's lynch and make it to the next day, which is scum-motivated behavior.
GK, your points against Obvious are exactly what? The only valid thing you said against me was that I disappeared from the thread for a while. You're so engrossed in your delusion that Ochrow was scum that you're transferring it to me and on the basis of what, exactly? I'd love to try to respond to those allegations but I'm not Ochrow so you present to me an impossible challenge bordering on telepathy. How can I know what Ochrow's long game was when I'm not allowed to contact him? There's no QT to refer to, I'm all by my lonesome here and I can sort of see why maybe his ban could have been on purpose since this game is full of delusional people.
How about you all take a step back and reboot, have a reality check and maybe figure out why it is that the town is hell-bent on destroying itself and who the people behind it are.
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On August 20 2012 07:32 goodkarma wrote:
@Obvious,
I'm glad to see you're back.
You're right in that you can't see Ochrow's game plan via telepathy. But you should still be able to help us see Ochrow's motivations from a town perspective (if you indeed are town). What's more, you haven't weighed in on either Thrawn or YourHarry, who are both under heavy suspicion and one of whom (Thrawn) is currently set to be lynched.
It may seem unfair to be expected, as a replacement, to pick up exactly where your predecessor left off, but this is what I'm expecting of you nonetheless. Even after reading a few pages of case posts against the two top lynch candidates you should have some kind of read on them. So please share your impressions with us.
And please share what you think Ochrow's motivations were for his play.
Why would you need me to tell you what Ochrow's perspective is, as town? Are you not town enough to figure it out yourself? He has a one page filter and all of his experience with Mafia was in-person games. That should get you started.
Hey guys, meet scum #2:
On August 20 2012 07:49 Solarsail wrote:
@Z-boson, Obvious
I see we've ditched logic in favour of the impassioned rant.
Obvious, that is the worst deliberate post in this thread. You still didn't respond to the thrawn case, or any ongoing case except yourself. No one is expecting you to defend Ochrow's every word, you're responding to a threat that doesn't exist and you're not even up for lynch so I can't call it desperation.
You claimed town. Why would you even do that.
You're actually blaming Ochrow ('maybe he banned himself'). However those bad posts form part of your record, so with the information you have you can do a LOT more than simply throw your hands up.
You mentioned a QT to deny it. Everyone had given up on QT based speculation, why would you bring it back in?
You continued to OMGUS attack goodkarma, when he has been asking only for the kind of info everyone needs from you as a replacement player.
That's a lot of fluffy information there there, matey.
I am not expected to defend all the arguments against Ochrow but I'm expected to defend myself on behalf of Ochrow. Okay then. The only thing worth mentioning that he did was vote for Archrun. No real scum reads so he went with a vote on a lurker. Yeah, Ochrow played a very scummy town. You have him nailed down. Too bad I'm not Ochrow. If you really, truly need to find out that I am telling the truth how about you NK me tonight and high five your scum buddies tomorrow.
See, that's the thing about this game. It's not all just educated guessing. Some of it is intuition, and I seem to be more in tune with mine and willing to go with it than you are with yours. The town is being led by the nose.
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On August 20 2012 08:01 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 20 2012 07:21 Obvious.660 wrote:Holy shit, I've been in the game for 7 hours and have 3 posts and am already getting called out for lurking. You guys are doing an incredible job at that policy shit. I'm just gonna get real with you for a minute, sons. The rest of the you seem to think that killing off the closest thing you have to a confirmed town member (Thrawn) is a good idea and are still holding what I can tell you was simply piss-poor town play from Ochrow against me, the vanilla manilla town member with no super powers. One town lynch today, one town lynch tomorrow, and scum are laughing all the way to the bank. + Show Spoiler [in which gk holds a grudge] +On August 20 2012 07:03 goodkarma wrote:@SolarSail: Show nested quote +On August 20 2012 06:44 Solarsail wrote:
My current vote, thrawn. He did a very poor job of defending himself initially with the WIFOM and the claim (which if real is both highly convenient and misplaced), but then he's improved by responding to more accusations. I know 'lack of reading' is a general accusation against him but D1 I thought he was responding quite well, in full and with evidence, to all questions asked. So I would say it's just a D2 behaviour to be missing things a little.
I agree with much of gk's posting minus the initial shared QT accusation because that is unlikely to have produced the coincidental posts with the same agenda. The lying to us, lurking, nonaggression and general avoidance of Ochrow/Obvious stands out a lot more (oh and the OMGUS vote) and YH has demonstrated some serious read errors and flip flops if he is indeed town. So my case against Thrawn is mostly by association with YH and Ochrow than directly. I will keep my vote on him because it is a combined one from gk's case and thrawn's individual behaviour. However /unlike/ GK I will not switch around as people's defences go up and down with each post. I will be around at the deadline but I don't plan to switch.
The lurkers simply have not posted enough to make any case as strong as vs Thrawn or vs Obvious so I can't justify voting for them instead of those two. This is possibly by design; if so they are lucky that D1 was intense and D2 was focused on a single case to avoid attention.
So, in other words, you're saying that Thrawn looks scummy by association with Obvious and YourHarry? I've already mentioned this before, but you should vote your strongest scum read. Voting because of association, when none of the suspects have actually flipped, can be dangerous. I've already described how this could cause bias, and it is one of the reasons for switching my vote. Ochrow just outright is a stronger scum read than Thrawn for me right now. I don't follow your logic when you say you won't switch your vote, when it seems you already have a stronger scum read on Ochrow/Obvious than on Thrawn. If your read is solely based off "association," then I would urge you to reconsider your vote. And regarding my vote switch, I'm not following a policy of "present your defense and I won't vote for you." But the fact that Ochrow, and now Obvious, have not presented a defense of any kind to the case points against him gives me a stronger scum read on him. His choice to afk from thread until after the vote tells me he's trying to buy enough time to survive today's lynch and make it to the next day, which is scum-motivated behavior. GK, your points against Obvious are exactly what? The only valid thing you said against me was that I disappeared from the thread for a while. You're so engrossed in your delusion that Ochrow was scum that you're transferring it to me and on the basis of what, exactly? I'd love to try to respond to those allegations but I'm not Ochrow so you present to me an impossible challenge bordering on telepathy. How can I know what Ochrow's long game was when I'm not allowed to contact him? There's no QT to refer to, I'm all by my lonesome here and I can sort of see why maybe his ban could have been on purpose since this game is full of delusional people. How about you all take a step back and reboot, have a reality check and maybe figure out why it is that the town is hell-bent on destroying itself and who the people behind it are. HEHE this is the Obvious I remember <3. However like your predecessor you are defending thrawn and have barely mentioned Your Harry. This is incredibly suspicious as, if you had read the thread and peoples cases against them I don;t see how you could state that Thrawn is the closest thing to confirmed town. Or not mention YH at all.
I'm in a rush here, WWE PPV tonight and I'm getting picked up to hang with my cousins. Darth, if you follow the train of thought on your own you will know the truth about me (bolded part).
Yeah, you're right, I don't really know how strong the situation is against Thrawn, but it seems that if it's between YH and Thrawn I will pick Thrawn as a lynch target today. The main reason is: Vig shot target is kind of rediculous. Maybe it wasn't in context of the thread, but I have only spent maybe 1.5-2 active hours with the thread today and will read deeper into everything on the night cycle to give better reads. Sorry I replaced like 10 hours from deadline or whatever it was but I'm out the door.
##UNVOTE
##VOTE: THRAWN
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Thoughts on Golbat, to pass some time here. Stream of consciousness as I read through his filter.
Regarding his posting bevavior: having been in the same game (XXII) as Golbat that he has referenced where he was lynched D1 as a power role, I can't help but notice that his posting has gone (relatively) from hero to zero. I realize that this is, in part, a tactic through which he is engaging in some self-preservation behavior which isn't totally off the wall crazy. I did similar in my first game and ended up saying a bunch of crap that got me lynched. I think the town needs the old Golbat right now though. Compare this to YourHarry whose posting habits have carried on from game to game. It just seems like you went from one extreme to the other and it honestly doesn't suit us in terms of getting a better read on you, please try to get into the fray today. If you were posting like you did in XXII I would have seen you for town (saying whatever comes to your mind) and it can't really hurt at this stage of the game to pick it up. Even YourHarry has somehow survived this long with his antics, but that's how I know YH. It would do a lot, at least for me, to see you as town if you would be a bit more aggressive and active.
Golbat, you've been on Thrawn's case the entire game. Your first case post against him:
+ Show Spoiler [golbat analysis pt1] +On August 17 2012 08:21 Golbat wrote:Here's my case on Thrawn, I apologize for the lateness and lurkiness so far, I have been not really paying attention to this game so far because I'm right in the middle of prepping for college and spending time with family and friends I won't be seeing for a while, but I'll try to give this game everything I have when I can. At first, he really plays up how much of a newbie he is, and how he doesn't know anything about playing. He says that he's planning on reading several of the mafia guides in the pregame. But his questions are so simply answered by READING ANY MAFIA GUIDE and or the OP of this thread that it is obvious he did not bother to do any of the reading he claimed. This to me is a clear indicator of someone who wants a simple explanation for their bad play. "Oh sorry i'm just new". I used the new player excuse in XXII and it got me lynched. I'm sure if he had done the reading he would have read "don't just claim newbie lol u will die". That's just one of the things he does that I find to be scummy. Not to rehash other's discussion on this, but he has been sheeping and avoiding making his own reads the entire game as well. from Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 13:52 thrawn2112 wrote:
YourHarry, who do you find most scummy at this exact point in time? to Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 07:11 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:My two cents on Shady: My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. On Solar: As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel. On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is: On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote:
As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason. On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS ArchrunAs per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse. FOS ArchrunArchrun, you have made 3 posts so far and none of them have had anything directly to do with scumhunting. Can you tell us what you think about shady's claims concerning solar, myself, and newharry? Which is the beginning of a really poor case on Archrun based on that he is lurking and provided the least amount of content. And that's pretty much his case. He spends the remainder of the time up until now either asking for other peoples reads or talking about archrun, until joining the shady wagon. He mentions several times how his vote was "not an OMGUS" and then he says this. Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 05:34 thrawn2112 wrote:
Can somebody try to convince me why I shouldn't vote for shady and instead vote for a lurker? I am confident in my vote for shady, but there is still the possibility that he is town and that he made a terrible case. I think it is more likely that he is scum, but if someone can convince me that a specific lurker is a way more likely to be scum then I will change my vote. This has nothing to do with my confidence for reading shady as scum. He's begging people to post something so he can sheep it. It's so far beyond just poor play that I can't really believe he isn't scum. He talks about scumhunting and how everyone else should do it, without ever doing it himself. If that isn't scummy, I don't know what is.
I particularly like this last part here. It's like you never even went back and revisited the idea after his Vig claim. Even if you didn't trust his Vig claim 100%, doesn't it make sense that he would want to know who other people thought would make for good vig kill targets? It may not have been the best way to go about getting that information, but in the context of his claim it makes sense to come back to it. Alas, Thrawn's claim didn't resonate with you, and I'm somewhat surprised by that given your history in XXII where you too were a Vig and without a clear target. Of course Thrawn did a better job staying alive to execute it, but you were ironically putting him in a similar situation. The over-aggressive Shady Sands was a more overwhelming factor for D1 here, so it's not completely in Thrawn's hands that he made it through the day. In my eyes this is significant evidence that you may not be thinking like us.
You also seem fairly hell-bent on getting YH voted off the island next, so I'm very interested in reading a solid, cohesive case from you on him. Let's say, during the night phase?
Let's see, who else on the list do I feel like reading up on a bit...
Jhuyt... well, let's see here. Just from a cursory glance I see that your D1 vote was a successful mislynch of Shady Sands. You almost had your way with a D2 lynch as well.
+ Show Spoiler [ I spy vintage YourHarry] +On August 20 2012 00:36 Jhuyt wrote:ok, I found something in Harry's filter, it isn't much but I thought it was kind of interesting. Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 12:48 YourHarry wrote:
I will explain later, or maybe it will sort itself out.
FOS Following people still have not posted:
Golbat
Jhuyt
Z-BosoN
Ochrow
In this post he was very clear with whom had not yet posted, so I assume he made the effort to look through the filters and found us. later on he says this: Show nested quote +As to why I did not call out Ochrow: I was not even aware of it. How many times did I call lurkers out - I did not make sure that I got every single lurkers out. In fact, I thought in one of the list, I copied lurker list provided by previous poster and eliminated names who posted since then. I simply missed him for some reason... Here he claims that he did not try to find everybody, so he lied, or forgot about it, I'd say he lied. This is the problem with YourHarry, he makes posts that consist of nothing and he makes claims he immediatly retract. It doesn't matter if you're scum or town, this is just bad play on all parts and super anti-town. For this I'm going to vote for YourHarry ##Vote: YourHarry
One of the quietest players in the game is calling out the some of the loudest players in the game. I'm plainly shocked that 1 page filter guy has lived this long. I guess that's how it works when you vote for the easy targets.
YourHarry... Man you do kinda have my head in a spin here.
You claim that Archrun is setting us up for a dual mislynch:
On August 17 2012 08:55 YourHarry wrote:Show nested quote +Archrun said:
Currently, I feel that if Shady is lynched and is town then we should lynch Thrawn, Likewise, if Thrawn is lynch then we should lynch Shady. If one of them is scum then the other is town. I doubt any busing is occurring because if they were on a team they could of just focus me rather than fight among each other. With that I am going to keep my vote but if Thrawn flips townie Shady is becomes my number one suspect. You guys don't think Archrun is trying to benefit from the mislynch. If Thrawn flips town, he is basically trying to secure the Shady lynch. You may argue that town Archrun actually believes that exactly one of Trhawn or Shady is scum, but I have hard time accepting this because he leaves out one possibility that they are both town.
We get this post that explains your motivations:
On August 17 2012 14:13 YourHarry wrote:
EDBWOP: And I do realize that by my own analysis, my last minute switch in voting from Archrun to Shady could make me suspicious... But at this point, my scum reads were Archrun > Shady > Thrawn. So when it looked like Archrun lynch seemed impossible, I wanted to make sure Shady lynch over Thrawn lynch happens.
Well, all three of these guys are dead, and I still think the jury is out on Golbat since he's been scared to post or whatever. Either you told us your scum plan (hardly believable) or you're just one of the many who shared suspicions of these people and are being set up for a mislynch (more believable). Why do I classify these in terms of believability? Because we're in N2 and not a single red flip has happened. Feels like expert scum play in this game, and weak town play (myself included, I know I'm at the bottom of the list when it comes to player skill in this game). Very few people other than me and YH (that I can remember) were really outspoken against people who were not obvious lynch candidates.
End of stream of consciousness for now. Bed time or something like it.
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Been out of the house for a few hours. Really surprised at the Jhuyt lynch actually... more like scum did a favor for us than anything at this point.
First thing I have to say is that I was roleblocked last night. That makes two of us who were roleblocked tonight between myself and DP.
I'm definitely in agreement on a Golbat lynch at this point. We'll start with this general contradiction of himself, or more accurately him not matching the portrait of townie traits he is painting:
On August 17 2012 08:21 Golbat wrote:
Here's my case on Thrawn, I apologize for the lateness and lurkiness so far, I have been not really paying attention to this game so far because I'm right in the middle of prepping for college and spending time with family and friends I won't be seeing for a while, but I'll try to give this game everything I have when I can.
On August 18 2012 17:48 Golbat wrote:
I also really hope that some more of the lurkers start posting. Z-Boson, Ochrow, Jhuyt have yet to post today to my knowledge. On August 18 2012 17:54 Golbat wrote:
EBWOP: Only Ochrow hasn't posted today. My apologies. Z-Boson posted right after the flip, so that just barely counts. Solar and Jhyut have posted. This is followed up by an absurdly long period of time without any contribution in the past couple of days and his last (very ironic) post:On August 19 2012 07:30 Golbat wrote:
You could probably assume that I didn't pay close attention to the first 24hours of the game. Because I didn't. I had forgotten I even signed up until like halfway through Day1.
Why are YOU trying to make it sound like I have no clue what's going on at all? I know exactly what to make of that.
Further evidence he is barely paying attention to the thread even when he is here:On August 18 2012 10:36 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 09:27 Golbat wrote:
I still maintain my case on thrawn. He and shady are my two biggest scum reads at the moment. I'll have to re read GK's case on oochrow, and then OO's filter and then see how I feel about that. But I feel pretty safe right now in voting for Thrawn.
##Vote Thrawn
also, ##FoS YourHarry
His play has been the flippiest and the floppiest. That usually means intentionally sowing confusion in the thread, as people have to follow his logic back and forth to make any sense of what he says. Shit, I totally meant harry. I don't even know why I typed shady.
Quite possibly his most difficult-to-read response to something in the thread that just about begs you to not try to read it more than once because of how he embedded his commentary.
On August 18 2012 16:48 Golbat wrote:The bold is my response, the bold/underline is yourharry's words. Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 16:12 YourHarry wrote:@Darth While it is true that I may have briefly mentioned my town read on Archrun on Day 1, when deciding to lynch between Archrun and Shady, at the time it was only a mild town read based on the fact that explanations given by Thrawn made logical sense to me. After Archrun's post outlining what seemed to be his scum plan of action, Thrawn was indeed almost as good as confirmed townie in my mind. And this was due to my thinking that Archrun was scum. But I don't think I ever claimed that he is a confirmed townie. I did say that he is a confirmed townie if Archrun flipped scum, which he didn't. Recent postings make me think that Thrawn and Golbat are on the same team. This post stands out: On August 18 2012 15:10 Golbat wrote:On August 18 2012 12:55 goodkarma wrote:
@YourHarry:
Any suggestions as to who this someone else is that we should lynch?
My first thoughts are either Orchrow or you.
You seem to be very interested in keeping thrawn alive as long as possible... I suggest you start making some meaningful suggestions as to who you feel looks scummier. And it would also be helpful if you commented on people's most recent cases against thrawn, Orchrow, and yourself instead of continuing to strive to keep Thrawn alive.
There are situations here where the vigi still shouldn't claim. Like what if there is an sk, but the vigi hasn't used his shot yet? A vigi counter claim here would be terrible, as he could wind up rb'ed by scum and NK'ed before he can do anything.
And if we wait, who's to say town doesn't get a successful medic save or rb? Or that scum or the sk (if he exists) doesn't just sit back and do nothing for one night? There's a few different ways that there could be an sk but fewer than two night kills.
Waiting achieves nothing. My read, and the read of several of us here, is that thrawn is scum. It's time for him to go. Read through the case points against him, and show us why you feel he might be town. It's more productive than your WIFOM defense of thrawn you're presenting now. I am in agreement that we should just lynch thrawn here. We seem to have caught a scum or even two, I think if thrawn flips scum then YH is almost certainly scum. Obviously, from my perspective, this only sounds like Golbat is trying to mislynch me knowing that Thrawn will flip scum. I see nowhere in that post where I even hint at knowing anything. I simply said that if thrawn flips scum, the guy who is defending him is likely to be scum as well. That guy is you, and you've already been marked out as scummy by several people, including myself. There are other two players who suspect me of being scum with Thrawn: Darth and GK. But despite my previous suspicion of GK, their outlining of cases actually make some logical sense right now and they seem to be actually trying to scum hunt. (And I admit that I may look scummy right now for flip flopping my vote and trying to defend Thrawn). On the other hand, Golbat suddenly shows up and basically sheeps other people's cases. Only thing that seems a bit weird is that he is one of the first players to cast a vote against Thrawn, when day 2 opened, after Darth. However, this may be mafia QT planned action to encourage Golbat to bus against Thrawn - one who is likely to be suspected anyway due to Day 1 mislynch of Shady. False. You and Thrawn seem to be suffering from the same inability to acknowledge my posts outlining my reasons for believing thrawn is scum. Possibly a scum tactic to cast suspicion on me? More importantly, Thrawn suddenly suspects Golbat, because he is lurking. Even though there are other lurkers, he specifically picks out Golbat just because he recently posted. Is this not a legitimate thing for a cornered scum to do? While I agree that pressuring lurkers is a good strategy, Thrawn did not have any interaction with Golbat... but all of the sudden, he singles him out. Thrawn at this point knows that his lynch is imminent, and that there is nothing he can do to avoid flipping red. This to me seems like his attempt to distance himself from his scum partner in Golbat: On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 15:22 goodkarma wrote:@Thrawn: On August 18 2012 15:04 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 14:52 goodkarma wrote:On August 18 2012 14:35 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 14:29 goodkarma wrote:
A cornered scum would have no problem lying about his role to get out of a lynch, and that's what I see is the case with Thrawn. Like stutters said, a scum role claiming vig when he doesn't know who the real vig is would be pretty bad play because the scum would be leaving himself open to a counter claim when he has no idea who the vig is. The problem with this logic is that no one knows if there's an sk + Show Spoiler +(except the sk, if he does exist) . So, there may not even be a vigilante... The scum player wouldn't know this. He would be gambling on there not being a vig.And you felt it was necessary to inquire if there could be two vigis, a setup that though possible is fairly unlikely. It feels like you're already trying to find an escape route if you get caught up in your lie. I asked if there could be 2 vigs because I was planning on asking for a vig counter claim. Since there could be two I decided asking for a counter claim was a bad idea because if there is another vig and he counter claimed then I would look pretty bad. So then you would agree it's possible, that a scum player would make a vig role claim in your shoes? Honestly, we could argue to death your vigi. role claim, but it's only a waste of time. I want to hear what you have to say about the case points currently against you. Read up on my case on you, which is posted right before the day 2 post. And tell me where in that case I'm wrong about you. I'm tired of hearing role claims and WIFOM from you. The longer you stall in providing an actual defense, the guiltier you're looking. You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town. I'm going to respond to your post, but it is VERY long and references tons of other posts all of which are very long so don't expect a response for quite awhile. I am also busy scumhunting but this is having to be done on my own because I don't have any credibility right now. Just to give you an idea of what leads I'm going after, here is my interpretation of what's going on. So far 3 town players have been killed/lynched. The scum I suspected (archrun and shady) of being behind my D1 lynch case turned out to be town. While this is going on there are a few players that have posted very, very little content. My conclusion is that either the scum team are doing an extremely good job of hiding their actions or that there is at least one, if not probably more than 1 scum among the lurkers. I am currently looking at Gobalt because his latest contribution was a vote for me and his only motivation for that vote was that he agreed with what others have said. Since the shady lynching he hasn't contributed anything beyond the post I pointed out in my post before this one and I would like to hear what he has to say. There are other lurkers too but since he is in the thread right now we had better get him posting while we can. Taken together, I think this strongly suggests that Thrawn and Golbat are scums together.
And finally, there was no response to my poke last time so I'll just quote it here to add to the case against him:On August 20 2012 14:08 Obvious.660 wrote:Thoughts on Golbat, to pass some time here. Stream of consciousness as I read through his filter. Regarding his posting bevavior: having been in the same game (XXII) as Golbat that he has referenced where he was lynched D1 as a power role, I can't help but notice that his posting has gone (relatively) from hero to zero. I realize that this is, in part, a tactic through which he is engaging in some self-preservation behavior which isn't totally off the wall crazy. I did similar in my first game and ended up saying a bunch of crap that got me lynched. I think the town needs the old Golbat right now though. Compare this to YourHarry whose posting habits have carried on from game to game. It just seems like you went from one extreme to the other and it honestly doesn't suit us in terms of getting a better read on you, please try to get into the fray today. If you were posting like you did in XXII I would have seen you for town (saying whatever comes to your mind) and it can't really hurt at this stage of the game to pick it up. Even YourHarry has somehow survived this long with his antics, but that's how I know YH. It would do a lot, at least for me, to see you as town if you would be a bit more aggressive and active. Golbat, you've been on Thrawn's case the entire game. Your first case post against him: + Show Spoiler [golbat analysis pt1] +On August 17 2012 08:21 Golbat wrote:Here's my case on Thrawn, I apologize for the lateness and lurkiness so far, I have been not really paying attention to this game so far because I'm right in the middle of prepping for college and spending time with family and friends I won't be seeing for a while, but I'll try to give this game everything I have when I can. At first, he really plays up how much of a newbie he is, and how he doesn't know anything about playing. He says that he's planning on reading several of the mafia guides in the pregame. But his questions are so simply answered by READING ANY MAFIA GUIDE and or the OP of this thread that it is obvious he did not bother to do any of the reading he claimed. This to me is a clear indicator of someone who wants a simple explanation for their bad play. "Oh sorry i'm just new". I used the new player excuse in XXII and it got me lynched. I'm sure if he had done the reading he would have read "don't just claim newbie lol u will die". That's just one of the things he does that I find to be scummy. Not to rehash other's discussion on this, but he has been sheeping and avoiding making his own reads the entire game as well. from Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 13:52 thrawn2112 wrote:
YourHarry, who do you find most scummy at this exact point in time? to Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 07:11 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:My two cents on Shady: My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. On Solar: As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel. On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is: On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote:
As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason. On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS ArchrunAs per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse. FOS ArchrunArchrun, you have made 3 posts so far and none of them have had anything directly to do with scumhunting. Can you tell us what you think about shady's claims concerning solar, myself, and newharry? Which is the beginning of a really poor case on Archrun based on that he is lurking and provided the least amount of content. And that's pretty much his case. He spends the remainder of the time up until now either asking for other peoples reads or talking about archrun, until joining the shady wagon. He mentions several times how his vote was "not an OMGUS" and then he says this. Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 05:34 thrawn2112 wrote:
Can somebody try to convince me why I shouldn't vote for shady and instead vote for a lurker? I am confident in my vote for shady, but there is still the possibility that he is town and that he made a terrible case. I think it is more likely that he is scum, but if someone can convince me that a specific lurker is a way more likely to be scum then I will change my vote. This has nothing to do with my confidence for reading shady as scum. He's begging people to post something so he can sheep it. It's so far beyond just poor play that I can't really believe he isn't scum. He talks about scumhunting and how everyone else should do it, without ever doing it himself. If that isn't scummy, I don't know what is. I particularly like this last part here. It's like you never even went back and revisited the idea after his Vig claim. Even if you didn't trust his Vig claim 100%, doesn't it make sense that he would want to know who other people thought would make for good vig kill targets? It may not have been the best way to go about getting that information, but in the context of his claim it makes sense to come back to it. Alas, Thrawn's claim didn't resonate with you, and I'm somewhat surprised by that given your history in XXII where you too were a Vig and without a clear target. Of course Thrawn did a better job staying alive to execute it, but you were ironically putting him in a similar situation. The over-aggressive Shady Sands was a more overwhelming factor for D1 here, so it's not completely in Thrawn's hands that he made it through the day. In my eyes this is significant evidence that you may not be thinking like us. You also seem fairly hell-bent on getting YH voted off the island next, so I'm very interested in reading a solid, cohesive case from you on him. Let's say, during the night phase? Never did get that night post from him...
Summary: My read is that Golbat is scum, intentionally lurking and posting in a manner that deflects any real attention from being on him when there are more active scummy-looking players in the game. The problem with this strategy is that now that we're at a point where lurkers seem to be the best option, he isn't giving us much else to go off of other than that he's still avoiding attention and that is precisely the kind of behavior that will get people in trouble at this stage of the game.
##VOTE: Golbat
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On August 22 2012 10:18 Z-BosoN wrote:
@Stutters
I was about ready to start my post when I read yours, so I mostly skimmed over it. I've read it though, and thank you for contributing. But my point about analyzing his intentions and such still stands, I still think it's useless. I don't think any of his posts have any intentions or any purpose at all other than just being random.
@Obvious
Well, he might just be not visiting this thread anymore, I dunno... whatever his reasons, he's insanely inactive and hopefully will just get modkilled...
Means everyone who has a case against him, including myself, should start considering alternate people and working on cases immediately in the event that he's removed.
If Golbat is modkilled, will it be done after 72 hours inactive or just flipped with the lynch today?
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Well. I went through the people who I felt most strongly were town to the least town and I came up with this list by process of elimination. As already stated, the lurking is killing this town. We're past 24 hours of today's day portion of the cycle and still haven't heard much from quite a few people. Golbat is on his way to a modkill. YourHarry is presumably making his case since he checked in a little while ago but it has been some time and we have heard nothing yet.
In no particular order:
YourHarry
Z-Boson
Stutters
Golbat
At this point I don't even think it can hurt me to speculate that there is only 1 hyper-active scum in this game. I speculate Golbat is going down quietly as scum. So far the only person I think I saw mentioned to be defending Golbat was Thrawn, who is now dead? If anyone else remember people defending Golbat and wants to chime in that would be great. So essentially I have a coin-flip between Stutters and Z-Boson from my POV, based on process of elimination of who I get the feeling is town and who is not.
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On August 22 2012 11:30 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 22 2012 11:09 Obvious.660 wrote:
Well. I went through the people who I felt most strongly were town to the least town and I came up with this list by process of elimination. As already stated, the lurking is killing this town. We're past 24 hours of today's day portion of the cycle and still haven't heard much from quite a few people. Golbat is on his way to a modkill. YourHarry is presumably making his case since he checked in a little while ago but it has been some time and we have heard nothing yet.
In no particular order:
YourHarry
Z-Boson
Stutters
Golbat
At this point I don't even think it can hurt me to speculate that there is only 1 hyper-active scum in this game. I speculate Golbat is going down quietly as scum. So far the only person I think I saw mentioned to be defending Golbat was Thrawn, who is now dead? If anyone else remember people defending Golbat and wants to chime in that would be great. So essentially I have a coin-flip between Stutters and Z-Boson from my POV, based on process of elimination of who I get the feeling is town and who is not. What is your view on Solar?
On the phone right now, just got a call, I'll take a second look after I'm done. Is he one of your suspects or are you confused as to why he didn't make my short list?
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On August 22 2012 11:45 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 22 2012 11:37 Obvious.660 wrote:On August 22 2012 11:30 DarthPunk wrote:On August 22 2012 11:09 Obvious.660 wrote:
Well. I went through the people who I felt most strongly were town to the least town and I came up with this list by process of elimination. As already stated, the lurking is killing this town. We're past 24 hours of today's day portion of the cycle and still haven't heard much from quite a few people. Golbat is on his way to a modkill. YourHarry is presumably making his case since he checked in a little while ago but it has been some time and we have heard nothing yet.
In no particular order:
YourHarry
Z-Boson
Stutters
Golbat
At this point I don't even think it can hurt me to speculate that there is only 1 hyper-active scum in this game. I speculate Golbat is going down quietly as scum. So far the only person I think I saw mentioned to be defending Golbat was Thrawn, who is now dead? If anyone else remember people defending Golbat and wants to chime in that would be great. So essentially I have a coin-flip between Stutters and Z-Boson from my POV, based on process of elimination of who I get the feeling is town and who is not. What is your view on Solar? On the phone right now, just got a call, I'll take a second look after I'm done. Is he one of your suspects or are you confused as to why he didn't make my short list? I am about to post a case on him. would like your thoughts.
Okay, I'll take a look after this call, promise.
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Solarsail:
First interesting post in a back-and-forth with Shady Sands:On August 15 2012 10:10 Solarsail wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 10:01 Shady Sands wrote:Solarsail, why post this? (edit for clarity)From the previous post from Solarsail  /edit) Imagine how scared of posting you would be if you'd signed up for your first game and rolled Mafia. Your posts would be short, infrequent, and not hold any information that disagrees with the general direction so as not to stand out. Because I've played one game of Mafia in my life, it was on another forum and that happened. But I forgot that "Newbie" in the title means that everyone is a fucking veteran and doesn't need to be told anything. I have no idea what a good post is, please enlighten me on how I can make completely flawless first posts with zero information. Starting here. What this looks like to me is an antagonizing relationship between Solar and Shady Sands. Going back to the context of the interaction, Shady Sands makes his first read loud and clear that he feels Solar is scummy, and this is a sort of emotional reaction to being targeted right off the bat in your second mafia game ever. Understandable reaction, I am still guilty of this from time to time, even my entrance to this game was characterized as semi-emotional and confusing.
The remainder of that previous post, the first paragraph here:On August 15 2012 09:32 Solarsail wrote:
Reading the many guides linked on the library which are incredbly helpful, the most important thing I saw is that the town needs to stay active and stay on point. If we are to lynch anyone it has to be because of real information and evidence, and that has to be readily available from the thread. If we're trying to learn we need a long record to practise analysing.
Imagine how scared of posting you would be if you'd signed up for your first game and rolled Mafia. Your posts would be short, infrequent, and not hold any information that disagrees with the general direction so as not to stand out. basically endorses having an active and talkative town. Basically, condoning town play. If I were to have an issue with this, I would say that he's breaking his own town-rule if he's town. Three-page filter and still alive at this stage of the game makes me look to the rest of his filter for quality posts over the quantity.
This is follow by tons of short posts, which goes against my expectations based on his vision of being a town player (again, being active), which are either mocking or taunting, or the word I guess would be trolling? It's a ton of posts and useless to quote them all here. You can see for yourself that all of them up to his "Good morning" post are intentionally inciting and not very useful to us.
Interestingly enough, the end of that post has this small gem which has now planted the seeds of doubt to his alignment:On August 15 2012 20:35 Solarsail wrote:Good morning. + Show Spoiler [snip] +
I intend to be civil and not emotional from now on. My posts were very deliberately an attempt to get discussion going and see what people's alignments were, and this was a success in that I want to point out two people. My behaviour was consistently anti-town, so a good town player would be telling me to stop being erratic but not defending me.
So, first I want to discuss Shady Sands. Apart from one-line questioning of me, and the unneeded insistence on filters as has been pointed out, he has done little else and none of his arguments have been reasonable or backed up by evidence. His enduring suspicion of me based on the first post doesn't make sense because it was just the second post and neither town nor mafia would have a motivation to start accusing someone at that point. If it was just to start discussion in itself why would he persist in asserting it for the next eight pages as if it was substantial.
Secondly, the continued defence of me by Thrawn has no basis. I was clearly being anti-town. Some evidence:
"I am still of the opinion that solar's posts are somewhat likely to be emotional overreactions rather than scummy."
"Shady, can you explain your reasoning for initially jumping all over solar?"
"Most of the discussion right now is about solarsail. I don't think there's anything wrong with this because so far his posts haven't seemed very useful but we have still yet to hear from several players. He could easily be town and just reacting to everyone immediately jumping on his case as soon as the game starts."
"Suspicion of a soft accusation is hardly good evidence that he should be lynched especially when there has been so little discussion so far so I am not sold on your case against him."
There is little reason to defend me so much unless your motivation is to defend someone he knows to be town player for deflection reasons.
--
I am unvoting because my original vote was baseless and I want to hear Shady's response before making a serious attempt at voting him.
Unvote
The thread consensus has been that I'm town. Thus if I am mafia I have nothing to gain from changing my playstyle now. Solar had everything to gain from changing his playstyle. Use Shady Sands as an example in the context of this thread. Anyone who was outspoken and posting quick one-liners has been looked at with great scrutiny. In fact, I would say that he has not presented much by way of original ideas to the thread since his posting style changed. His votes/FOSes have been: Shady Sands, Thrawn, YourHarry, Jhuyt, and myself. All of us have had suspicions against us from other players, and as you can see here, there is definitely a pattern of targeting confirmed (by way of lynch/NK) or near-confirmed (in my case, I don't expect you all to believe Ochrow/Obvious is town but for the purposes of this argument since it's coming from me I will use it as fact). YourHarry is currently the only unconfirmed suspicion in this list.
His last post, here:
On August 21 2012 09:30 Solarsail wrote:
We're not going to realistically win this game without three good mafia lynches. Being decisive is exactly what is needed, so we need a leader and gk has stepped up. If this devolves into eight lynch candidates we have poor odds of picking the right one even if our accusations of certain behaviours are correct.
So it's really just a question of your read on gk. If you think he's town, vote for Golbat. If you think he's not, vote for GK. If GK and DP are mafia then wp because they've been nothing but active and helpful (and terribly wrong yesterday).
I haven't done nearly enough independent work, and it's hurt me because I've been taken in by bad logic following others, but ultimately it's a lesson learned. I don't even think Golbat is the greatest lynch candidate ever because lurking is a often a null tell but I'm seeing that it's come down to the choice I said. I'd go with Obvious myself but I don't even trust any reads I have after D1 and D2.
##Vote: Golbat
If Golbat is town and dies by modkill tonight, that's another confirmed townie on his list of suspicions. That's a pretty awful track record in terms of hurting town via mislynches, even for a member of the town, which makes me think that perhaps he is indeed scum and knows players' alignments. Suspicious enough for me to feel confident moving my vote off Golbat and onto him.
##UNVOTE
##VOTE: Solarsail
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Do I count as sheeping if I posted my case on him before you posted yours even though you asked? Semi-joking.
Not sure what to make of the Golbat situation but he's voting for Solarsail as well. Hard to speculate as to why, best guess is that it's because it was the most recent case posted. If we lynch correctly today and he's not NK'd hopefully he participates tomorrow.
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Darth, you forgot to vote Solar, if that was your intent after finishing your case.
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May we have an official votecount, please?
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I think it's relevant to point out that Golbat, whom we probably shouldn't expect to show back up, has placed his vote on Solarsail. In the event that Golbat both (1) does not return, and (2) is town, doesn't that essentially mean town either rallies under Solarsail or goes along with the YH vote now that YH is at 4?
What are the implications that a YH vote was so easy? Do you guys have any thoughts about why the easiest guy to vote for (inconsistent behaviors, confusing meta) was the last guy we're voting for? I'm not saying that YH isn't scum. I came into this game with an open mind and an understanding that his play-style is very unique to him, so I didn't hold it against him at first, yet he's still difficult to get a solid read off of (to me) even taking his style into account. I guess I can defer to the wisdom of others when it comes to YH at this stage. I'm fine with either of the leading candidates. YH is a stronger option since it allays any need to decide what his musings allow us to infer and we're left with the more straightforward Solarsail to deal with later if he's still a candidate.
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On August 23 2012 07:24 DarthPunk wrote:
ok guys we all need to consolidate onto Your Harry so we are not screwed around by last minute vote changes. I will answer the Z-Boson case if we survive the cycle but at this point we should either be: consolidation onto your harry. Or consolidating onto solar sail. You already have 5. I guess this is calling me out specifically, since I'm the last person other than YourHarry himself.
##UNVOTE
##VOTE: YourHarry
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@Darth: I feel... lucky. Thus, your CrazyHarry policy lynch sounds rather enticing.
What about these jokers who were pushing to switch the vote AWAY from YH within the hour before the deadline? Shouldn't we be concerned they were quiet for 2 days and suddenly got all uppity when YH was about to die? If YH was the mafia's "town voice", it's not a slam dunk but rather probable that his scum partners would be jumping to his defense at the eleventh hour.
I just went back to glance at the case I wrote on Solar and I see that YH was the ONLY scum player in his list of suspicions up to his vote on Golbat. So, in light of the flip, it's time to look at the interactions between Solar and YH to decide if this was:
>out of necessity (demonstrating self-preservation by not looking out of place for not being suspicious [fitting in]), or
>if he willingly built a fresh case (showing legitimate concern that YH was mafia) against YH.
I'm still worried about Golbat but that's a bridge that will be crossed when it needs to be. It's really not fair for a town Golbat to do this to us.
Going back to look at YH/Solar interactions.
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Starting from YourHarry's side:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15862745
And this is the reason why I suspect GK to be the scum, because unless GK and Solar are mason together, he somehow knew the town alignment of Solar. The same same argument that you are making now, on why I am scum for knowing GK/Solar's alignment can be made about GK, for knowing Solar's alignment. Except, hopefully my explanation makes sense that my reasoning for knowing is based on thinking that GK/Solar was mason.
This among other things, it's like the entire first 1/5 of Harry's filter is discussing the Solar/GK mason theory. We now know that Harry knew Solar and GK's alignments. His "knowing" they were mason buddies was based on a single word that was making something of nothing ("sigh"). Okay, so YH stops talking about Solar, or rather nothing was found (with Ctrl+F for "solar") in his filter after about 1/5 down the page referring to Solar until his last vote, just hours ago, against Solar. The guy "town Harry" had pegged for town at the beginning of the game.
To indulge myself a little bit of WIFOM, why would YourHarry do this? Why not go down silently? Did the plan suddenly go from "I'm going down silently" to "Shit! Who's going to lead town to the last mislynch?" These are things that don't keep me awake at night because I sleep like an angry bear.
Summary from the YH side: YH spends a goodly amount of time defending Solar as town when tunneling on GK, and then votes Solar at the end. We can't trust YH because we don't know his motives, and we're having a hard time trusting Solar because of his highly-dependent play.
Solar side:
Chided YH for YH's vote against thrawn not having much evidence... but what is this? A mini-revelation in my head?
Up to this point, no significant mentions of YH until we get:
On August 20 2012 08:09 Solarsail wrote:What a surprise. Scum YH has a good motivation for this: be accused as one of the three, bus Thrawn to save yourself when the case against you looks strong, and backtrack on that close to deadline when he's about to be lynched and people are talking about switching. On August 20 2012 08:53 Solarsail wrote:
Vote reverting to Thrawn per my earlier post since an Obvious lynch is not really possible in 7 minutes.
##Vote: Thrawn2112 On August 23 2012 08:27 Solarsail wrote:Show nested quote +On August 23 2012 08:10 goodkarma wrote:
TL;DR:
One last time: we don't have the time to vote switch. You do if you all verbally agree that you'd do it at 10 minutes to, and anyone that didn't would be immediately voted at 5 minutes to. IRC mafia decisions can be done in much less time with everyone there. IRC mafia, huh? You've been keeping naughty secrets.
Maybe the most important/telling interaction between them for the entire game:
On August 20 2012 08:19 Solarsail wrote:Show nested quote +On August 20 2012 08:17 YourHarry wrote:On August 20 2012 08:09 Solarsail wrote:
I am having second thoughts about Thrawn.
What a surprise. Scum YH has a good motivation for this: be accused as one of the three, bus Thrawn to save yourself when the case against you looks strong, and backtrack on that close to deadline when he's about to be lynched and people are talking about switching. That is not the reason for my switch, but I understand your suspicion. I can't move my vote for now because if I do, I will be lynched. You can move your vote with an even stronger case on someone else. I encourage you to do so because your initial vote against Thrawn wasn't with much evidence.
Solar is, out loud, explicitly, in the thread, OKAY with YourHarry letting himself get lynched by unvoting. A better player than myself could please take a look at this since my WIFOM tank is empty?
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On August 23 2012 12:53 goodkarma wrote:
@Obvious: Explain to me why it is on day 3 you completely ignore my case on YourHarry, and jump from Golbat to Solarsail. And only when called out for it, you become the last to vote for YourHarry on day 3. And I would also like to know how SolarSail, who wasn't on your scum suspect list at all, becomes your top scum read, but only after DarthPunk tells you he's making a case on him.
(-snip-)
We all know how important tonight is for town, so be warned: if you don't participate expect to be rewarded with an FOS and a likely vote. If you didn't know, failing to show your views right now is anti-town and serves only a scum agenda.
In other words: There's no acceptable town-motivated bullshit excuse you can make up to get out of participating tonight without getting noticed.
Well, originally I had a problem with you because you wanted me to do the work of figuring out what the hell Ochrow was doing. I can't answer for Ochrow, and since I know that Ochrow was town, it would have been a waste of time to go back through his filter and think about his interactions with people looking for his "town motive" when it can all be explained by bad town play. Your continuing to push me for it was further encouraging me to waste my analysis time looking AT MYSELF (Ochrow's filter) instead of at other players. So stemmed my distrust of you to start.
Regarding the case against Solar, Darth asked me a direct question so I complied. Why is that a problem? I originally looked quickly through all the filters to come up with my short list, and his request gave me a reason to take a second, deeper look at Solar. I found reasons for me to believe he was scummy before Darth posted his own. If I hadn't found anything worth mentioning, I would have said so.
As for the vote switch, I have already said that I had a very difficult time reading YH, perhaps because I was giving him the BOTD regarding his playstyle. When it was clear in the thread that we were consolidating votes, I had no problem moving my vote over. My candidate, Solar, wasn't gaining traction and in the event that we were right about YH, he would still have to present his defense and scum reads today.
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On August 23 2012 15:26 goodkarma wrote:
@Obvious:
Just one more question:
Would you mind sharing your top two scum reads?
SolarSail is still one.
I'm at a toss-up between Golbat and Z-Boson right now. Golbat mostly because I still can't believe a town Golbat would have not poked back in yet. How sick can you be to not at least chime in that you're still alive or something? I still haven't gone back to check Z-Boson/YH interactions but I might not have time to before the night ends. I will try though.
Stutters doesn't make my list because of his highly comprehensive case against YH, but this one tidbit just stuck out to me and it means I'll be doing another once-over on him soon too:On August 21 2012 10:48 Stutters695 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2012 09:40 DarthPunk wrote:
I was roleblocked again. And I don't understand the jhuyt NK at all. I was expecting either myself or goodkarma to get shot. I am guessing it was to try and confuse us. Ditto. I was expecting one of you guys and if they were going to try and throw us off probably a vote on me. Kinda surprised Jhuyt of all people. That post by GK right before the deadline is good though. It really comes down to if you believe GK is town or not and I currently do. I'm going to re-read the thread and try and get some better ideas. This is our last shot town, lets make it count. @Stutters: DITTO as in you were also roleblocked? Or just your suspicions of who the NK targets would be?
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I'm reading Stutters as town here upon further review. A scum Stutters makes for a very sophisticated bus strategy, very very high risk strategy here in a newbie game, so I'm not willing to bank on that.
Solar/Golbat or Solar/Z-Boson are my scum team picks.
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On August 24 2012 05:39 goodkarma wrote:As promised, another piece of evidence pointing to a Z-Boson / Golbat scumteam: Upon first asking Z-Boson for his reads: Show nested quote +On August 24 2012 01:38 Z-BosoN wrote:-snip- Now, of course, he is in phase 3He has assumed a VERY defensive position as soon as YH was lynched: After you've finished going through the filters let me know if I've got to defend myself against anything, because tomorrow's gonna come down to me vs Obvious and I'd much rather be going through filters trying to find a third option, especially if Golbat somehow flips town and throws everything off.
My play today was weak sheeping because I believed we had pretty much lost. I wasn't trying to put together a case of my own because it came down to whether goodkarma was right or not. Today I will be more active and more independent. No one had even said anything yet, and he assumes an exaggerated defensive stance. This sounds too much like a scum that is feeling cornered. What does he mean, by "if Golbat somehow flips town"? Is he expecting the nk to go on Golbat? Also, since I feel Golbat is most likely town, this could be a huge scumslip-snip- But then he says: Show nested quote +On August 24 2012 03:04 Z-BosoN wrote:
@goodkarma
I have no logical arguments for why I think Golbat is town. He doesn't care about the game, doesn't show any interest in posting, and the few posts that he has that I can analyze I deem are pretty neutral. He could just as well be scum or town, so let me correct myself:
I have a neutral read on him, but think he is town because I feel Solar is scum and made a scumslip.
Obvious has been under the radar, but he seems incredibly suspicious to me as well. This is clearly a scumslip. He is right that there is no logical argument to think that Golbat is town, but he decides to do it anyway. He then backs off his read and decides Golbat's a "neutral" read. Between this and the remainder of my case, it's pretty clear we've got our two remaining scum.
Z-Boson then Golbat? I will accept that. You've got a decent case there for Z-Boson/Golbat and it's a lot better than my nitpicking over SolarSail's play.
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On August 24 2012 06:12 goodkarma wrote:@SolarSail:I wish you would have contributed more earlier, but I'm glad you're here. Keep it coming @Obvious:More analysis please! I spent a lot of time coming to my conclusions. You can do better than a 2-line response. I know what you're capable of! 
I'm on a sort of crunch time with the vote happening in my other game and getting ready to leave for the gym, but I am glad you know I am capable of more. Just to be clear so I don't go in the wrong direction, you want me to play iSpy with Z-Boson before night ends?
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Jesus, Z-Boson spends a whole lot of time railing on YH without ever voting for him.
Then crazy speculative post about the NKs that got caught up in the rest of the WIFOM of the D1-2 madness. Also in that post:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 19 2012 05:16 Z-BosoN wrote:
My take on thrawn2112's situation
My certain conclusion, based on the rest of this post is this:
By golly, thrawn is a very very VERY bad player. If you read my analysis on the NK's and on GK's post, you'll see that no matter if he is scum or vigi or just regular townie, he is playing this very badly. I just can't pinpoint with extreme certainty whether he is a very bad scum or a very bad townie. I have a very strong inclination on a bad scum, because a scum thrawn who would kill mkfuba to try to escape in some WIFOM manner would seem to me less stupid than a Vigi thrawn, who with already so much pressure on him (before the nk i mean), would waste his ONLY bullet on such a CRAPPY hunch with so LITTLE evidence.
What I'm going to do now is read more carefully the DarthPunk x Thrawn exchange, which seemed to me a little edgy, and will see what sort of conclusions can come from this with a thrawn lynch. I haven't gone through DarthPunk's filter yet and I try to see if his conviction on thrawn is as clear as goodkarma's.
First, however, I will update my D1 suspicions on YourHarry, because his posting, however more frequent and more detailed, still seems to be filled with trashy talk and crappy arguments.
Anyways, due to what I have stated earlier, I think the best option right now is:
##Vote thrawn2112
Okay, so during that day of the vote for Thrawn, when Thrawn tries to make a case against "Zobalt" (lol) for lurking, Z-Boson just shits on him for it. Like literally, in the thread, drops trou and puts a Cleveland Steamer right on Thrawn. He's never looked at the possibility that Ochrow (now, me) could be bad town.
Here's the YH bus taking place:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 20 2012 12:25 Z-BosoN wrote:All right guys, some debriefing should take place. I agree that we shouldn't back off during the night. It is crucial we get it right this time. Let's see what we have: YourHarryExtremely weird player. My main theory against him was that he was trying to do a lame bus on thrawn. Granted as thrawn was indeed vigi, this is not the case. However, his posts and comments generally are inconsistent, lack explanations, and keep changing. His posts are a diarrhea of WIFOM that I've decided are only here to confuse us with its vagueness, lack of clarity, and lack of purpose. Observe: Show nested quote +I am having second thoughts about Thrawn. First thing that doesn't make sense if Thrawn is scum: If Thrawn is indeed scum then he left that "bread crumb" post so that he can use that as evidence to mislead the town that he is vigilante. But Thrawn denied this post as the "bread crumb" post, and in his initial claim, he never even referenced this post in the first place... Mega power WIFOM. Show nested quote +
Second thing that I am not sure about is that, claiming vigilante is so dangerous for scum. One weak point in this line of thinking is that Thrawn did ask the mod to confirm that there could be more than one vigilante. I think it is possible that scum Thrawn DID ask the moderator in private prior to asking publicly that there could be more than one vigilante.
What is this supposed to implicate? Useless garbage. Show nested quote +
STILL, whether or not there could be two vigilante... a counter vigilante claim would definitely have made Thrawn look suspicious. Would it not? I am not sure scum would have taken this risk.
He keeps babbling, and doesn't make a point. How in anyway is this post helping town? And we keep going: Show nested quote +But I am scared to unvote, because I will be the next person to be lynched after Thrawn What is this supposed to mean? Is he a scum that wants us to think this or is he a townie that wants us to think that he is thinking... oh wait, WIFOM. This statement means CRAP. ... and more .... Show nested quote +I am not super confident in my scum read. Upon my reading just now, I found Jhyut case's scummy. Sheeping Thrawn's case here, but Jhyut did not care whether I am town or scum - he wanted to lynch me. I thought he was something else, but I guess I was wrong again. HE is also lurking pretty hard, so he may turn out to be scum Crappety crap crap CRAP. He is randomly throwing around suspicions and not committing to anything. This in no conceivable way helps town. Show nested quote +My case against Golbat and Darth was based on my scum read on Thrawn. Not sure anymore. Scumslip? How does he suddenly know that thrawn is not scum? Oh, that's right, he decided thrawn isn't scum with his brilliant and well thought-out argument, quoted above. I'm sure we can agree that his posts don't help the town and scream scum. Even though there was strong evidence that thrawn and YH were scum, due to the way they were playing it D1, I am still inclined to think he is scum. This requires much more thought, as we will have to be certain that we lynch a scum in the next day. JhuytHe is a quiet and lurky player. He mentions possibilities, without compromise, and doesn't take a stance on anything. Show nested quote +The more I think of it the more I find that either Shady or Thrawn is scum. But since my basis of suspicion against Thrawn is basically gone I really can't vote for him. I think this post + Show Spoiler + coupled with Thrawn's reason to accuse Arch is enough for me too consider Shady as scum.
##Vote: Shady Sands
I have to go for the next couple of hours so I won't be here for the conclusion of the day, see ya later. Bases himself off completely off of someone else's arguments, and announces he will have to leave. He then makes complains about how wishy-washy YourHarry is, says it is urgent that we lynch him, and starts to make shallow arguments on GK: Show nested quote +When I looked at the case GK made in this post I got the feeling that you might be scum, but I wasn't sure. When I couple that with your scumslip it makes more sense that he's right and therefore I think you're scum.
The benefit of the doubt line was one that I was considering to cut out of the post because it doesn't add anything and I'm pretty sure I misused the expression.
I should have said that while I do think you're scum I think that YH's behaviour is way scummier and so much more anti-town that a lynch on him is necessary so that we can have a clearer discussion. But still considering YourHarry's wishy-washyness more scummy. Gets attacked by thrawn, who basically states the same things I'm saying right now, and is defended with weak and contentless posts. He simply doesn't take a solid stance on anyone (except maybe for YH). He's generally much more lurkier and gives off too few to work with. GolbatBeastly Lurker. Joined on the thrawn bandwagon and disappeared. We should have lynched him a long time ago. This makes me understand why lurker policy needs to be so strong. If he was a civilian before, then we would be down a lurking civilian who was not helping at all. Now, however, we cannot afford another misslynch, and have to be more careful. But since he has barely any posts, it will be very hard to determine for sure what he is. goodkarma and DarthPunkI wanted to make sure that I wasn't skipping any details on the non-obvious choices. I've noticed some weird behavior on GK, which I've already mentioned. Since I've already gone through thrawn's filter, I can understand where GK could have found some reason to back off of thrawn. I don't think he is scum, as I can't think of why a scum would go ahead and say I'M SURE HES GUILTY, to backing off entirely. Scum generally take hesitant postures that lack commitment and conviction. I've read DarthPunk's filter carefully and wasn't able to detect anything too suspicious or compromising, as he has been making accusations and backing them up with well explained arguments. Also, both him and goodkarma have been making tons of pro-town and meaningful accusations. If one of them is mafia, it is not in this round that we will be able to lynch them unless we can pick up on something not yet noted. Stutters and Obvious to come. I'm sleepy and have to wake up early tomorrow. Please, be active, let me know what you think of this post and contribute your own ideas and suspicions as well.
Finally after two days of mislynches, the scummiest-acting player in the game has his time come.
Now we have a vote for YH. Not before when Z-Boson took issue with almost everything YH said, but after a vocal townie (Shady) and an almost confirmed townie (Thrawn) have died. Somehow Shady Sands and Thrawn were more scummy looking to Z-Boson than YH for two days, meanwhile a scum YH was shitting up the thread with clutter and opportunistic rolehunting. How is it a bus? Because it YH was as suspicious to Z-Boson for the first two days, he would have voted accordingly. But he NEVER DID. YH left things to pick up all over the place that, in the context of his meta and general playstyle could have been considered null tells. I think it was probably a lot of willful ignorance on everyone's part to let YH get away with madness for so long.
+ Show Spoiler +On August 22 2012 04:41 Z-BosoN wrote:@Stutters He has been fishing roles all game? I don't remember this, can you please find where? The only thing I can recall is him interpreting a dubious thrawn quote to say why he thinks thrawn is blue. You basically said what's been said all game. YH uses WIFOM, is inconsistent, keeps changing his mind without specifying why. This to me is very scummy, as I've made clear for quite some time. But I will one-up this argument, I think I found something that, in my opinion will give a strong case against him.
Case against YourHarryI will not go over again how stupid and confusing and useless his posting is, how that looks scummy, etc. Ladies and gentlemen, the first thing YH says: I am not sure which meta I will choose this game . I am not sure which meta I will choose this game . I am not sure which meta I will choose this game . He clearly indicated that he wants to follow a certain meta. Apparently, he has already decided which one it is. He is thriving on confusion. Look at some of his quotes from previous games: + Show Spoiler +Release, I am not Grush.
I didn't particularly find lazer monkey's post scummy. This is a newbie game. He is simply providing some guidelines on what townies should avoid - since (I assume) that his previous games have been tainted by vanilla towns claiming power roles.
BTW, I am not OMGUSing Jingle. I just find it difficult to understand why he finds me scummy, since I think I explained myself and answered all of his questions. When someone is focusing his accusation on a player based on reasonable evidence, that someone could be town or scum.
But when someone is stubborn about his accusation on a player, even after the accused player adequately explained himself, I think that someone is likely to be scum. Maybe he is not satisfied with my answers. If so, Jingle, please tell me what you still think I am scum.
Here, someone may question whether my initial vote against Hopeless also makes me scummy for above reason. But as I explained, I don't particularly find him scummy and my initial attempt to incite responses from him and others did partially succeed - mostly in the forms of accusations toward me.
##Unvote
##Vote Jingle Release:
I maintain that it was not an OMGUS battle, at least from my perspective. I had valid reason, at least from what little was available at the time, to suspect Jingle. And if Jingle is scum, my quick reconciliation is not necessarily scummy. At best, it's WIFOM. One can argue that scums would be hesitant to dismiss each other's scuminess, in fear that 1) obvious buddying may make both of them suspicious, exactly how you are suspecting both of us 2) other's scum flip will incriminate them.
Either way, my actions on end of day 1 to place the one of the deciding votes on Hopeless (especially when I previously expressed my opinion that I didn't think hopeless was particularly scummy, I could have easily justified my vote against someone else) and my willingness to vote against Jingle now should make me unlikely to be scum.
Also, in regards to miller providing a difficulty for town victory: miller counters mafia role cop and detective is soft countered by miller. Mafia role cop is gone and detective is still alive. So, miller's value to town is at extreme minimum. Of course, if detective was nonexistant, miller would be as good as vanilla townie. The reason why medic shouldn't claim is obvious. Night2, the scum would roleblock medic and nightkill the detective. Medic role claiming does not allow us to gather any additional information on alignment of other players. However, this means that we must come up with a consensus on who we want to lynch way prior to the deadline so that medic does have a chance to roleclaim if somehow he gets picked to be lynched.
The reason for power role claiming immediately if they received the positive result is also evident. This is because what we will do today would be clearly decided: lynch whoever received the positive result. This also allows medic to anonymously protect the powerrole who got the positive result.
The reason for claiming in order is because we don't want two power roles to reveal their identity unless it gives us additional information. This prevents second power role role claiming just in case they targeted the same player at night. I think detective claiming first makes sense, because it is a more important role - so this allows medic to protect him at night. This is some quotes from his previous game as townie. Notice the difference? He still throws information around a bit, but notice how it is toned down and how much more reasonable he seems. One of the first things I have said in this game is that analyzing meta is weak and doesn't constitute arguments. However, YourHarry has been constantly playing the meta game, and even said so himself in the beggining of the game. He has decided he wants to be as confusing as possible, as random, as wishy-washy as he can. Another thing that I noticed is generally not done is analyzing the nk's. Oh, Jhuyt just died, but he was such a strong scum suspect. O well, WIFOM, scum wants us to think that blah blah blah. Not in YourHarry's case. The only consistent thing he's done is be confusing. I'm sure we can all agree with that. I raise now two points: 1) Why would this be the meta to go for a town YourHarry? Isn't it weird how much better his play was as townie in past games? Why would town Harry want to be as confusing as possible? 2) Jhuyt nk was confusing as hell. This entirely fits YH's profile this game. I cannot for the life of me come up with a better reason to kill JHuyt other than just try to confuse town. Since YH right now is confusion in person, this raises an uncanny coincidence. But Z-BosoN! 2) is WIFOM and analyzing meta is weak! Well, imaginary doubting friend, I don't think that this applies here. YH is strictly playing a meta game, and not ONCE did he abandon it. He's drowning in WIFOM, but I doubt that he would have considered this when deciding who a scum YH would want to kill, because up until now, all we've done is analyze the garbage he jams on his keyboard, but not the overall picture. Let's stop wasting time trying to think what a scum Harry would do, and think more about how a scum Harry would act. So there it is folks, I think this makes a lot of sense, and should give you one more powerful reason as to why YH is SCUM!. Think about it and tell me what you guys think. I think this is the best option right now, I can't think of a stronger reason to lynch someone else. ##Vote YourHarry
THEN HE DOES A 180!:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 23 2012 07:58 Z-BosoN wrote:
Well, let's see who is present. All of me, Obvious, you and Darthpunk are present. All of us still have one hour to switch. Are we sure we want to go through with YH? Emotions aside (I've been ranting against him and his posting all game, basically), the more I think about it, the more doubt I have. Especially considering how wishy-washy thrawn also was, and how much circumstantial evidence made him look guilty.
Take back the votes on YH? He doesn't even wait for a consensus and to make sure everyone is around, just balls-out unvotes:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 23 2012 08:25 Z-BosoN wrote:
Well, most certainly one of us is scum, but as far as I know, we agreed to follow suit.
I suggest we all unvote, discuss, and vote again, as we still have 40 minutes. If the scums don't follow suit and don't unvote, it will be clear who they are, they would certainly not risk it.
I don't necessarily agree with this choice. YourHarry has a ton of shit, but he has a lot of pro-town posts. I read Obvious' case and DarthPunk's case on him, and I have to agree, he certainly looks scummy as hell. His play is even more ridiculous than YH.
Then I read my case on YourHarry, and your case again. What obvious said made me retrospect, because the type of evidence YH is getting lynched for is almost identical the type of evidence that thrawn was, happenstance arguments.
YES WE DO HAVE TIME.
I propose this, all of us here now unvote, and if, at 8:50, not all of us are unvoted, we go ahead and vote for YH. By 8:55 all our votes are made, to the same person discussed.
Essentially it is up to you, GK, because without you we won't be able to switch votes, and I strongly feel taht we should. Think about what has been said, and think quickly. Is YH the right choice??
##Unvote
TLDR: The guy who has been laying into YH the entire game has a change of heart just before the deadline. There's no, I repeat, NO town reasoning for this at all.
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Any last thoughts or clarifications? I kind of rushed that last post so there's a couple of formatting errors that should have been ironed out and my personal commentary was injected in the middle there. I have about an hour left before I'm gone for a few hours.
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I'm gonna be late for TNA Impact to see this flip so I have something to think about during the commercials and my cardio.
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I'm crossing my fingers for my own death because I feel pretty useless while suspicion still lingers on me for things I didn't even write.
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See you guys when I get back from the gym!
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On August 24 2012 12:50 DarthPunk wrote:
Z- Boson mysteriously silent after I explain why his scenario may require four role blockers in the game. Depending on how role-blocks are handled this could be quite damning.
I started to type up some speculation about the composition of the game but I realized that I would just be making an exercise in futility and WIFOM and that's the last thing we need here. While waiting for that response you've requested I'll re-read the goings-on of the past few hours and hopefully something will stick out to me.
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On August 24 2012 04:14 Stutters695 wrote:
I haven't gotten a RB notification all game. Ditto as in I don't understand the NK on Jhuyt. GK seemed like the obvious lynch from a scum perspective (remove the most voal person) unless they were trying to blue hunt at night which is the only way I can reason it out currently. I figured at the time if they were trying to throw us off I'd be dead because although I've posted a couple of cases no one has really questioned me at all outside of GK informing me Shady was dead because I messed up the formatting in my post and your current question.
Walls of text incoming shortly.
I want my walls of text, Stutters, por favor.
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Original thoughts on Golbat:
+ Show Spoiler [first evidence post] +On August 20 2012 14:08 Obvious.660 wrote:Thoughts on Golbat, to pass some time here. Stream of consciousness as I read through his filter. Regarding his posting bevavior: having been in the same game (XXII) as Golbat that he has referenced where he was lynched D1 as a power role, I can't help but notice that his posting has gone (relatively) from hero to zero. I realize that this is, in part, a tactic through which he is engaging in some self-preservation behavior which isn't totally off the wall crazy. I did similar in my first game and ended up saying a bunch of crap that got me lynched. I think the town needs the old Golbat right now though. Compare this to YourHarry whose posting habits have carried on from game to game. It just seems like you went from one extreme to the other and it honestly doesn't suit us in terms of getting a better read on you, please try to get into the fray today. If you were posting like you did in XXII I would have seen you for town (saying whatever comes to your mind) and it can't really hurt at this stage of the game to pick it up. Even YourHarry has somehow survived this long with his antics, but that's how I know YH. It would do a lot, at least for me, to see you as town if you would be a bit more aggressive and active. Golbat, you've been on Thrawn's case the entire game. Your first case post against him: + Show Spoiler [golbat analysis pt1] +On August 17 2012 08:21 Golbat wrote:Here's my case on Thrawn, I apologize for the lateness and lurkiness so far, I have been not really paying attention to this game so far because I'm right in the middle of prepping for college and spending time with family and friends I won't be seeing for a while, but I'll try to give this game everything I have when I can. At first, he really plays up how much of a newbie he is, and how he doesn't know anything about playing. He says that he's planning on reading several of the mafia guides in the pregame. But his questions are so simply answered by READING ANY MAFIA GUIDE and or the OP of this thread that it is obvious he did not bother to do any of the reading he claimed. This to me is a clear indicator of someone who wants a simple explanation for their bad play. "Oh sorry i'm just new". I used the new player excuse in XXII and it got me lynched. I'm sure if he had done the reading he would have read "don't just claim newbie lol u will die". That's just one of the things he does that I find to be scummy. Not to rehash other's discussion on this, but he has been sheeping and avoiding making his own reads the entire game as well. from Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 13:52 thrawn2112 wrote:
YourHarry, who do you find most scummy at this exact point in time? to Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 07:11 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:My two cents on Shady: My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. On Solar: As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel. On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is: On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote:
As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason. On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS ArchrunAs per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse. FOS ArchrunArchrun, you have made 3 posts so far and none of them have had anything directly to do with scumhunting. Can you tell us what you think about shady's claims concerning solar, myself, and newharry? Which is the beginning of a really poor case on Archrun based on that he is lurking and provided the least amount of content. And that's pretty much his case. He spends the remainder of the time up until now either asking for other peoples reads or talking about archrun, until joining the shady wagon. He mentions several times how his vote was "not an OMGUS" and then he says this. Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 05:34 thrawn2112 wrote:
Can somebody try to convince me why I shouldn't vote for shady and instead vote for a lurker? I am confident in my vote for shady, but there is still the possibility that he is town and that he made a terrible case. I think it is more likely that he is scum, but if someone can convince me that a specific lurker is a way more likely to be scum then I will change my vote. This has nothing to do with my confidence for reading shady as scum. He's begging people to post something so he can sheep it. It's so far beyond just poor play that I can't really believe he isn't scum. He talks about scumhunting and how everyone else should do it, without ever doing it himself. If that isn't scummy, I don't know what is. I particularly like this last part here. It's like you never even went back and revisited the idea after his Vig claim. Even if you didn't trust his Vig claim 100%, doesn't it make sense that he would want to know who other people thought would make for good vig kill targets? It may not have been the best way to go about getting that information, but in the context of his claim it makes sense to come back to it. Alas, Thrawn's claim didn't resonate with you, and I'm somewhat surprised by that given your history in XXII where you too were a Vig and without a clear target. Of course Thrawn did a better job staying alive to execute it, but you were ironically putting him in a similar situation. The over-aggressive Shady Sands was a more overwhelming factor for D1 here, so it's not completely in Thrawn's hands that he made it through the day. In my eyes this is significant evidence that you may not be thinking like us. You also seem fairly hell-bent on getting YH voted off the island next, so I'm very interested in reading a solid, cohesive case from you on him. Let's say, during the night phase?
Followed up by:
+ Show Spoiler [second case post] +On August 21 2012 15:00 Obvious.660 wrote:I'm definitely in agreement on a Golbat lynch at this point. We'll start with this general contradiction of himself, or more accurately him not matching the portrait of townie traits he is painting: Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 08:21 Golbat wrote:
Here's my case on Thrawn, I apologize for the lateness and lurkiness so far, I have been not really paying attention to this game so far because I'm right in the middle of prepping for college and spending time with family and friends I won't be seeing for a while, but I'll try to give this game everything I have when I can.
Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 17:48 Golbat wrote:
I also really hope that some more of the lurkers start posting. Z-Boson, Ochrow, Jhuyt have yet to post today to my knowledge. Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 17:54 Golbat wrote:
EBWOP: Only Ochrow hasn't posted today. My apologies. Z-Boson posted right after the flip, so that just barely counts. Solar and Jhyut have posted. This is followed up by an absurdly long period of time without any contribution in the past couple of days and his last (very ironic) post: Show nested quote +On August 19 2012 07:30 Golbat wrote:
You could probably assume that I didn't pay close attention to the first 24hours of the game. Because I didn't. I had forgotten I even signed up until like halfway through Day1.
Why are YOU trying to make it sound like I have no clue what's going on at all? I know exactly what to make of that.
Further evidence he is barely paying attention to the thread even when he is here: Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 10:36 Golbat wrote:On August 18 2012 09:27 Golbat wrote:
I still maintain my case on thrawn. He and shady are my two biggest scum reads at the moment. I'll have to re read GK's case on oochrow, and then OO's filter and then see how I feel about that. But I feel pretty safe right now in voting for Thrawn.
##Vote Thrawn
also, ##FoS YourHarry
His play has been the flippiest and the floppiest. That usually means intentionally sowing confusion in the thread, as people have to follow his logic back and forth to make any sense of what he says. Shit, I totally meant harry. I don't even know why I typed shady.
Quite possibly his most difficult-to-read response to something in the thread that just about begs you to not try to read it more than once because of how he embedded his commentary. Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 16:48 Golbat wrote:The bold is my response, the bold/underline is yourharry's words. On August 18 2012 16:12 YourHarry wrote:@Darth While it is true that I may have briefly mentioned my town read on Archrun on Day 1, when deciding to lynch between Archrun and Shady, at the time it was only a mild town read based on the fact that explanations given by Thrawn made logical sense to me. After Archrun's post outlining what seemed to be his scum plan of action, Thrawn was indeed almost as good as confirmed townie in my mind. And this was due to my thinking that Archrun was scum. But I don't think I ever claimed that he is a confirmed townie. I did say that he is a confirmed townie if Archrun flipped scum, which he didn't. Recent postings make me think that Thrawn and Golbat are on the same team. This post stands out: On August 18 2012 15:10 Golbat wrote:On August 18 2012 12:55 goodkarma wrote:
@YourHarry:
Any suggestions as to who this someone else is that we should lynch?
My first thoughts are either Orchrow or you.
You seem to be very interested in keeping thrawn alive as long as possible... I suggest you start making some meaningful suggestions as to who you feel looks scummier. And it would also be helpful if you commented on people's most recent cases against thrawn, Orchrow, and yourself instead of continuing to strive to keep Thrawn alive.
There are situations here where the vigi still shouldn't claim. Like what if there is an sk, but the vigi hasn't used his shot yet? A vigi counter claim here would be terrible, as he could wind up rb'ed by scum and NK'ed before he can do anything.
And if we wait, who's to say town doesn't get a successful medic save or rb? Or that scum or the sk (if he exists) doesn't just sit back and do nothing for one night? There's a few different ways that there could be an sk but fewer than two night kills.
Waiting achieves nothing. My read, and the read of several of us here, is that thrawn is scum. It's time for him to go. Read through the case points against him, and show us why you feel he might be town. It's more productive than your WIFOM defense of thrawn you're presenting now. I am in agreement that we should just lynch thrawn here. We seem to have caught a scum or even two, I think if thrawn flips scum then YH is almost certainly scum. Obviously, from my perspective, this only sounds like Golbat is trying to mislynch me knowing that Thrawn will flip scum. I see nowhere in that post where I even hint at knowing anything. I simply said that if thrawn flips scum, the guy who is defending him is likely to be scum as well. That guy is you, and you've already been marked out as scummy by several people, including myself. There are other two players who suspect me of being scum with Thrawn: Darth and GK. But despite my previous suspicion of GK, their outlining of cases actually make some logical sense right now and they seem to be actually trying to scum hunt. (And I admit that I may look scummy right now for flip flopping my vote and trying to defend Thrawn). On the other hand, Golbat suddenly shows up and basically sheeps other people's cases. Only thing that seems a bit weird is that he is one of the first players to cast a vote against Thrawn, when day 2 opened, after Darth. However, this may be mafia QT planned action to encourage Golbat to bus against Thrawn - one who is likely to be suspected anyway due to Day 1 mislynch of Shady. False. You and Thrawn seem to be suffering from the same inability to acknowledge my posts outlining my reasons for believing thrawn is scum. Possibly a scum tactic to cast suspicion on me? More importantly, Thrawn suddenly suspects Golbat, because he is lurking. Even though there are other lurkers, he specifically picks out Golbat just because he recently posted. Is this not a legitimate thing for a cornered scum to do? While I agree that pressuring lurkers is a good strategy, Thrawn did not have any interaction with Golbat... but all of the sudden, he singles him out. Thrawn at this point knows that his lynch is imminent, and that there is nothing he can do to avoid flipping red. This to me seems like his attempt to distance himself from his scum partner in Golbat: On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 15:22 goodkarma wrote:@Thrawn: On August 18 2012 15:04 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 14:52 goodkarma wrote:On August 18 2012 14:35 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 14:29 goodkarma wrote:
A cornered scum would have no problem lying about his role to get out of a lynch, and that's what I see is the case with Thrawn. Like stutters said, a scum role claiming vig when he doesn't know who the real vig is would be pretty bad play because the scum would be leaving himself open to a counter claim when he has no idea who the vig is. The problem with this logic is that no one knows if there's an sk + Show Spoiler +(except the sk, if he does exist) . So, there may not even be a vigilante... The scum player wouldn't know this. He would be gambling on there not being a vig.And you felt it was necessary to inquire if there could be two vigis, a setup that though possible is fairly unlikely. It feels like you're already trying to find an escape route if you get caught up in your lie. I asked if there could be 2 vigs because I was planning on asking for a vig counter claim. Since there could be two I decided asking for a counter claim was a bad idea because if there is another vig and he counter claimed then I would look pretty bad. So then you would agree it's possible, that a scum player would make a vig role claim in your shoes? Honestly, we could argue to death your vigi. role claim, but it's only a waste of time. I want to hear what you have to say about the case points currently against you. Read up on my case on you, which is posted right before the day 2 post. And tell me where in that case I'm wrong about you. I'm tired of hearing role claims and WIFOM from you. The longer you stall in providing an actual defense, the guiltier you're looking. You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town. I'm going to respond to your post, but it is VERY long and references tons of other posts all of which are very long so don't expect a response for quite awhile. I am also busy scumhunting but this is having to be done on my own because I don't have any credibility right now. Just to give you an idea of what leads I'm going after, here is my interpretation of what's going on. So far 3 town players have been killed/lynched. The scum I suspected (archrun and shady) of being behind my D1 lynch case turned out to be town. While this is going on there are a few players that have posted very, very little content. My conclusion is that either the scum team are doing an extremely good job of hiding their actions or that there is at least one, if not probably more than 1 scum among the lurkers. I am currently looking at Gobalt because his latest contribution was a vote for me and his only motivation for that vote was that he agreed with what others have said. Since the shady lynching he hasn't contributed anything beyond the post I pointed out in my post before this one and I would like to hear what he has to say. There are other lurkers too but since he is in the thread right now we had better get him posting while we can. Taken together, I think this strongly suggests that Thrawn and Golbat are scums together.
And finally, there was no response to my poke last time so I'll just quote it here to add to the case against him: Show nested quote +On August 20 2012 14:08 Obvious.660 wrote:Thoughts on Golbat, to pass some time here. Stream of consciousness as I read through his filter. Regarding his posting bevavior: having been in the same game (XXII) as Golbat that he has referenced where he was lynched D1 as a power role, I can't help but notice that his posting has gone (relatively) from hero to zero. I realize that this is, in part, a tactic through which he is engaging in some self-preservation behavior which isn't totally off the wall crazy. I did similar in my first game and ended up saying a bunch of crap that got me lynched. I think the town needs the old Golbat right now though. Compare this to YourHarry whose posting habits have carried on from game to game. It just seems like you went from one extreme to the other and it honestly doesn't suit us in terms of getting a better read on you, please try to get into the fray today. If you were posting like you did in XXII I would have seen you for town (saying whatever comes to your mind) and it can't really hurt at this stage of the game to pick it up. Even YourHarry has somehow survived this long with his antics, but that's how I know YH. It would do a lot, at least for me, to see you as town if you would be a bit more aggressive and active. Golbat, you've been on Thrawn's case the entire game. Your first case post against him: + Show Spoiler [golbat analysis pt1] +On August 17 2012 08:21 Golbat wrote:Here's my case on Thrawn, I apologize for the lateness and lurkiness so far, I have been not really paying attention to this game so far because I'm right in the middle of prepping for college and spending time with family and friends I won't be seeing for a while, but I'll try to give this game everything I have when I can. At first, he really plays up how much of a newbie he is, and how he doesn't know anything about playing. He says that he's planning on reading several of the mafia guides in the pregame. But his questions are so simply answered by READING ANY MAFIA GUIDE and or the OP of this thread that it is obvious he did not bother to do any of the reading he claimed. This to me is a clear indicator of someone who wants a simple explanation for their bad play. "Oh sorry i'm just new". I used the new player excuse in XXII and it got me lynched. I'm sure if he had done the reading he would have read "don't just claim newbie lol u will die". That's just one of the things he does that I find to be scummy. Not to rehash other's discussion on this, but he has been sheeping and avoiding making his own reads the entire game as well. from Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 13:52 thrawn2112 wrote:
YourHarry, who do you find most scummy at this exact point in time? to Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 07:11 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:My two cents on Shady: My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. On Solar: As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel. On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is: On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote:
As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason. On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS ArchrunAs per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse. FOS ArchrunArchrun, you have made 3 posts so far and none of them have had anything directly to do with scumhunting. Can you tell us what you think about shady's claims concerning solar, myself, and newharry? Which is the beginning of a really poor case on Archrun based on that he is lurking and provided the least amount of content. And that's pretty much his case. He spends the remainder of the time up until now either asking for other peoples reads or talking about archrun, until joining the shady wagon. He mentions several times how his vote was "not an OMGUS" and then he says this. Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 05:34 thrawn2112 wrote:
Can somebody try to convince me why I shouldn't vote for shady and instead vote for a lurker? I am confident in my vote for shady, but there is still the possibility that he is town and that he made a terrible case. I think it is more likely that he is scum, but if someone can convince me that a specific lurker is a way more likely to be scum then I will change my vote. This has nothing to do with my confidence for reading shady as scum. He's begging people to post something so he can sheep it. It's so far beyond just poor play that I can't really believe he isn't scum. He talks about scumhunting and how everyone else should do it, without ever doing it himself. If that isn't scummy, I don't know what is. I particularly like this last part here. It's like you never even went back and revisited the idea after his Vig claim. Even if you didn't trust his Vig claim 100%, doesn't it make sense that he would want to know who other people thought would make for good vig kill targets? It may not have been the best way to go about getting that information, but in the context of his claim it makes sense to come back to it. Alas, Thrawn's claim didn't resonate with you, and I'm somewhat surprised by that given your history in XXII where you too were a Vig and without a clear target. Of course Thrawn did a better job staying alive to execute it, but you were ironically putting him in a similar situation. The over-aggressive Shady Sands was a more overwhelming factor for D1 here, so it's not completely in Thrawn's hands that he made it through the day. In my eyes this is significant evidence that you may not be thinking like us. You also seem fairly hell-bent on getting YH voted off the island next, so I'm very interested in reading a solid, cohesive case from you on him. Let's say, during the night phase? Never did get that night post from him... Summary: My read is that Golbat is scum, intentionally lurking and posting in a manner that deflects any real attention from being on him when there are more active scummy-looking players in the game. The problem with this strategy is that now that we're at a point where lurkers seem to be the best option, he isn't giving us much else to go off of other than that he's still avoiding attention and that is precisely the kind of behavior that will get people in trouble at this stage of the game. ##VOTE: Golbat
Golbat made my short list (stutters is no longer on the quoted list):
+ Show Spoiler [shortlist] +On August 22 2012 11:09 Obvious.660 wrote:
Well. I went through the people who I felt most strongly were town to the least town and I came up with this list by process of elimination. As already stated, the lurking is killing this town. We're past 24 hours of today's day portion of the cycle and still haven't heard much from quite a few people. Golbat is on his way to a modkill. YourHarry is presumably making his case since he checked in a little while ago but it has been some time and we have heard nothing yet.
In no particular order:
YourHarry
Z-Boson
Stutters
Golbat
At this point I don't even think it can hurt me to speculate that there is only 1 hyper-active scum in this game. I speculate Golbat is going down quietly as scum. So far the only person I think I saw mentioned to be defending Golbat was Thrawn, who is now dead? If anyone else remember people defending Golbat and wants to chime in that would be great. So essentially I have a coin-flip between Stutters and Z-Boson from my POV, based on process of elimination of who I get the feeling is town and who is not.
Updated shortlist is, in this order:
Z-Boson
Golbat
SolarSail
With Golbat being pushed and voting for himself, I'm now hesitant to go after the easiest guy. No explanation for his self vote. If he's doing what I did elsewhere he's just trying to bait some people into the easy vote. Zero fucking context which is enraging. He's my tomorrow vote.
Today, I would rather vote Z-Boson.
##VOTE: Z-Boson
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The fact that the NK didn't go through is not solid evidence that there was a successful roleblock. It could have also been withheld to make us believe that a roleblock was successful. False sense of security. Just a thought.
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On August 25 2012 14:12 goodkarma wrote:
@Obvious:
Can you explain to me why, with Golbat as your second scum read, you can't vote for him this day cycle? We will be getting to Z-Boson tomorrow, but I'd like to play this game extra-safe. All of town should still unite behind one candidate, and I still strongly recommend that candidate be Golbat. Especially since, although very unlikely, there is a small (like abysmally small) possibility that Z-Boson could be telling the truth and we'd be losing a role-blocker.
The explanation that Golbat is scum is guesswork.
The explanation that Z-Boson is scum is that no NK occured.
If you think it's unlikely that scum would withhold the NK, then Z-Boson is guaranteed scum.
Why take the risk? We lynch scum here.
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It's also clear that Golbat isn't interested in playing. He can extend us the courtesy of yielding to a town victory once his scum partner is lynched without compromising his team's prime directive. If the remaining team is Z-Boson/Golbat and Z-Boson is dead, Golbat can surrender and we win.
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That's fine I guess. You let him decide for you. I'll decide for me.
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Very well. He wants out, he can get out. I will write up two new cases for night phase. Bedtime.
##UNVOTE
##VOTE: Golbat
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Okay, I'm still reacting internally to this. GG Z-Boson you did pretty flipping well for nearly soloing us. Haven't read much of the outside-game stuff except the last couple pages of the obs QT so this is mostly what I was thinking about tonight.
Initial reactions:
I actually was planning to build a case on DP tonight if Golbat flipped town, I wasn't sure exactly why he was pushing me away from Z-Boson vote until I saw the surrender. I had it in my mind that it would have worked the other way around, with Z-Boson being the one to get lynched and Golbat surrendering, since I wasn't 100% on Golbat. I guess either way works, and we all voted together to make it stick so that was a very good play by the rest of the town and DP subtly poking me to switch votes was all I needed considering, as has been said several times before this game, if one of DP/GK was scum it would be very difficult to prove it for me. The other case would have been to revisit Z-Boson and from there I would have decided for myself. Obviously (lol) bad news from my end.
My play last night started to slip drastically, I was heading into a sort of a depression and I really wanted nothing to do with anything or anyone, so I just kinda phoned it in, if that wasn't apparent from my previous few posts.
I will say that it absolutely SUCKED to replace for Ochrow given his posting habits. I'm not against replacing again in the future, I will probably try to be a bit better informed as to WHO/WHAT it is that I'm replacing next time though.
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On August 26 2012 17:53 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2012 17:49 Obvious.660 wrote:
I will say that it absolutely SUCKED to replace for Ochrow given his posting habits. I'm not against replacing again in the future, I will probably try to be a bit better informed as to WHO/WHAT it is that I'm replacing next time though. 95% of the time, you'll be replacing in sometime between N1 and N2, and you'll be doing it for a guy who did next to no analysis then lurked. Typically replacements are extended a small benefit of the doubt, but are expected to also do extra to make up for the bad position they're in. I've only ever once seen a replacement who got no benefit of the doubt, and that was me, because I replaced into Storm Mafia a few minutes in. but yeah most of the time replacing in means fighting your way into a game from the position of a replaced lurker, whether you were scum or town.
Why wasn't it suspicious when I survived a NK? Isn't that typically what happens to controversial townies who aren't NK'd the night they are subbed in? They get lined up for a lynch? Maybe I am misremembering. Yeah, I just kinda found Marv's post in the replacements thread by random chance so I found him on IRC so I let him know I was available. It was actually interesting having two games going at once for a couple days.
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On August 26 2012 18:11 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2012 17:49 Obvious.660 wrote:
My play last night started to slip drastically, I was heading into a sort of a depression and I really wanted nothing to do with anything or anyone, so I just kinda phoned it in, if that wasn't apparent from my previous few posts. I feel for ya, the same kind of thing happened to me from N1 onwards. I used the game as a distraction from real life problems and I ended up staying awake and posting for over 24 hours at one point. The added stress of being tunneled the whole game by pretty much everybody made it hard to post but the game was interesting and exciting enough for me to commit myself to it. TBH I was so fucking relieved when I got lynched. GG everyone it was a crazy and interesting first game.
LOL that's how I died in Newbie XXI as Vet. I was up for 30 hours, posted crazy stuff, then slept for like 10 through the deadline and wasn't there to defend myself. Was kind of cathartic though, for a first game. Jumped right into XXII :D
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Okay my fellow players. Post-game question for you who were suspicious of Ochrow and wanted me to explain his play. Now that we have no pretenses, what kinds of things were you looking for? I honestly, laden with the curse of knowing his role, read it all as bad town (quite clearly I was almost as bad as him at the role). I'd love to sub in again, but what kinds of things specifically were you looking for? Was it just willingness to analyze his filter and figure it out for you? I certainly didn't feel like that would do much good, since I wasn't the one interacting with him. Any input from those questioning me would be appreciated, I want to try this social experiment again sometime.
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On August 26 2012 18:37 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2012 18:33 Obvious.660 wrote:
Okay my fellow players. Post-game question for you who were suspicious of Ochrow and wanted me to explain his play. Now that we have no pretenses, what kinds of things were you looking for? I honestly, laden with the curse of knowing his role, read it all as bad town (quite clearly I was almost as bad as him at the role). I'd love to sub in again, but what kinds of things specifically were you looking for? Was it just willingness to analyze his filter and figure it out for you? I certainly didn't feel like that would do much good, since I wasn't the one interacting with him. Any input from those questioning me would be appreciated, I want to try this social experiment again sometime. I thought it was pretty clear you were town to be honest and the way you went about not trying to prove yourself but actually participate was good. I think we all could have been more active (apart from GK) but otherwise I felt that you were town. This also could have been to do with the fact that after the Thrawn flip. I realised how retarded associative cases could be and the main case against Ochrow was associative. The other aspect of the case against you was that Ochrow and Thrawn shared a QT. That was invalid as soon as thrawn flipped green and I am glad GK dropped the case gainst you in the end.
Okay, so I honestly should have re-read D2 a lot better when I got in. I tried cramming in what I could during the 10-ish hours (around the other crap IRL) or whatever it was that I had from sub to lynch, and analyzing Ochrow struck me as the worst possible thing I could have been doing to help at scumhunting at the time. Thanks for clearing that up haha.
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On August 27 2012 16:36 thrawn2112 wrote:
I didn't know why you guys wouldn't believe my vig claim.... a lot of the case against me was because of how I was pointing at archrun the whole game... yet you thought me being vig and shooting archrun was unreasonable. there was also the possibilty of an sk but that's something you could have figured out by waiting
I made a comment about it during the game but even I wasn't exactly sure why I voted you over YH at that particular point. Darth has brought up here in the post-game that you and Ochrow were linked by speculation and that it was broken based on your flip never occurred to me until now. In retrospect a YH vote from me would have cleared both of us considering it was him pushing the mason case, unless I am mistaken about who brought the link up in-game.
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EPT
