On August 21 2012 17:59 goodkarma wrote:
I encourage everyone to put together their reads, as there's still time for you to express your viewpoints before we consolidate our vote in the last 24 hours of the day. And obviously supporting or dissenting case points towards this case would be much appreciated.
I notice YH completely ignored my case against him from D2 (Previous case in spoiler). I felt he was suspicious day 1, our best lynch day 2 and that hasn't changed.
+ Show Spoiler +YourHarry is still my best vote. This is going to be a long case but I'm abridging the non major parts due to wanting to give you guys time to read it. Ask and I'll go into even more detail on parts i skimmed. Looking at his filter again his voting is just ridiculous. He starts in the thread by linking his filters (post 1) and addressing his different playstyles. Show nested quote +To summarize my meta, in the first 2.5 games, I am quick to make accusations and switch my vote players with little explanation. I decided to change my meta in game 3 where I drew vanilla townie. I played more conservative to avoid suspicion. I am not sure which meta I will choose this game  Although its pretty obvious which meta he "chose" this game it got me thinking about his motives. Town Harry has no reason to hide how he'll be playing while Scum Harry has just left himself an out in case someone like Shady were to bring up discrepencies in his Meta later. The next thing that stood out to me was his early vote switching. Please note that these posts were sequential in his filter and his 3rd and 4th total since the start of the game. Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 11:59 YourHarry wrote:
@Z-boson, posting filters is pretty easy. Why not.
@Shady Sands. You are accusing Solarsail of being hostile? You think scums are more likely to respond with hostility?
Thrawn on the other hand is busy posting fluffs and WIFOM statement like "It could be that you, as mafia, know he is town and are taking advantage of solar's emotional reactions by drawing them out even further and immediately sidetracking everyone onto solar's case."
##Vote Thrawn Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 12:03 YourHarry wrote:
OK.
##Unvote
##Vote Solarsail
"Imagine how scared of posting you would be if you'd signed up for your first game and rolled Mafia. Your posts would be short, infrequent, and not hold any information that disagrees with the general direction so as not to stand out." The bolded parts of this quote and the next one are my emphasis on what he omitted from the original posts. Note how the entirety of his reason for voting Thrawn is WIFOM but has only quote from Thrawn as evidence. That quote is about Shady challenging Solar so early. Show nested quote +Shady, can you explain your reasoning for initially jumping all over solar? It could be that you, as mafia, know he is town and are taking advantage of solar's emotional reactions by drawing them out even further and immediately sidetracking everyone onto solar's case. . Note how he leaves the context of the quote out of his "case" because if you consider what Shady was tunneling Solar so hard about originally it was a pretty weak reason (He said Solar soft accused me of playing safe because I was scum during my first post (also the first of the game).) His next post is just saying "OK" before switching to Solar. Again his quote was taken out of context. Show nested quote +Reading the many guides linked on the library which are incredbly helpful, the most important thing I saw is that the town needs to stay active and stay on point. If we are to lynch anyone it has to be because of real information and evidence, and that has to be readily available from the thread. If we're trying to learn we need a long record to practise analysing.
Imagine how scared of posting you would be if you'd signed up for your first game and rolled Mafia. Your posts would be short, infrequent, and not hold any information that disagrees with the general direction so as not to stand out. In his first 4 posts he's done nothing at all pro-town. He's tried to mislead us twice with his quotes without ever even pressuring the people he's voted for. This also provides another motive from a scum perspective of devaluing his votes. By switching around all day when it came time to actually vote for the lynch no one even questioned why Harry had placed six votes throughout the day while only building a couple of real cases which were all very weak. His only other "contributions" for the next two hours are: spamming the thread with one liners and no real analysis accusing Mkfuba (confirmed town) of opportunistically jumping onto the Solar badnwagon while twitsting a fairly townie quote into a scum play. Relevant quotes are in spoilers. + Show Spoiler +On August 15 2012 13:28 YourHarry wrote:Actually I find mkfuba suspicious. Although I think Solar did act somewhat scummy (and I voted him at one point), I think Solar is town. There were four people who thought Solar was scum: Shady, YourHarry, thrawn, and mkfuba. After three people expressed suspicion on Solar, Mkfuba opportunistically but non-committingly fuels Solar bandwagon: Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 12:33 mkfuba07 wrote:On August 15 2012 11:43 thrawn2112 wrote:
Shady, can you explain your reasoning for initially jumping all over solar? It could be that you, as mafia, know he is town and are taking advantage of solar's emotional reactions by drawing them out even further and immediately sidetracking everyone onto solar's case. The problem with the second part of this post is that it's not Shady who is sidetracking the conversation. He asked a question and Solarsail is perpetuating the suspicion by not addressing it. Shady started it, Solar is keeping it going. Multiple people have told him to post better and he's ignored us/thrown our advice back in our faces with a snarky comment. No matter what, this isn't pro-town behaviour. My view on Shady's first accusation (that Solar was obliquely accusing Stutters) is that Shady was overthinking it. I didn't even get a hint of supposition that Solar was accusing Stutters. What makes Solar seem at all suspicious to me has been his reactions the whole time. Nothing scummy yet, but a stubborn refusal to actually participate in pro-town behaviour. On August 16 2012 01:38 YourHarry wrote:Shady, regarding your accusation of me, the only thing that makes me scummy is this: Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 18:49 Shady Sands wrote:
Mkfuba posted something that was perfectly townish which YH tried to twist into scummy play. Again, I was indeed guilty of this. But this was a result of my strong suspicion that Solar was town. I did realize I was taking things out of context when Mkfuba pointed this out. You accuse me of posting one liners. I often post one liners and not much information is available in the beginning of the day, so few sentences would suffice in explaining reads. One liners can have content. And agreeing with you so readily is not a scummy behavior. Me if anything as scum may even be reluctant to agree with people readily, unless they have a strong case, in fear that people may point things out. @Goodkarma. You did not find Solar scummy based on previous cases at all? What makes you so confident about town going in the wrong direction in accusing Solar. It is almost as if you know his alignment? Moving on to the next RL day (Aug 16 1AM TL time) his first post is just defending his ridiculous claim that Solarsail is town amidst his spam by saying that he caught a hint that GK and Solar were masons but decided against it when they accused him. The next 6 or 7 posts are all focused on his "case" on Goodkarma. His case entirely revolves around the fact that the breadcrumb he caught that no one else did confirms that GK must either be scum or him and Solar are masons. Throughout the day he tunnels GK while defending himself and adding no additional analysis or quesitoning. I'll have to continue this in about an hour but just a recap of through page 2 of his filter. He's voteswitched without explinations numerous times, misquoted people intentionally while voting against them. I posted earlier about his obsession with the SK I'd encourage everyone to read and I'd ask people to check out his filter yourselves and see the drastic inconsistencies. I realize this is inconvenient but I'll be back in about an hour.
Picking up where I left off:
YH thinks GK and Solar are masons from a breadcrumb only he caught. Then when both Solar and GK accuse him for this really weak accusation he claims GK must be scum since masons aren't a possibility. His reasoning is because GK thought Solar was bad town and not scum GK must know Solar's alignment (This is the first real scumhunting YH has done at all). The rest of his post is just WIFOM and accusing GK based on fluff in GK's posts while ignoring the main points behind the posts. This is yet another example of YH trying to be active without contributing. I'll admit this is a weaker part of my case however when compounded with everything else it fits his style this game.
Moving on he switches his vote onto Shady (vote #4 on day 1) with a reasonable justification, I just wanted to point out that he had voted again.
After more filler he switches his vote to Archrun while admitting he hadn't even read everything related to it. Again he's devaluing his vote and leaving himself an out in case he needs to switch votes again.
On August 17 2012 08:00 YourHarry wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 07:26 Archrun wrote:
Currently, I feel that if Shady is lynched and is town then we should lynch Thrawn, Likewise, if Thrawn is lynch then we should lynch Shady. If one of them is scum then the other is town. I doubt any busing is occurring because if they were on a team they could of just focus me rather than fight among each other. With that I am going to keep my vote but if Thrawn flips townie Shady is becomes my number one suspect. Honestly I did not have time to read everything, but this seems alarmingly scummy to me. I had an experience in one of my earlier games where scum was basically trying to benefit from mislynch. ##Unvote##Vote Archrun
This isn't even the main thing I took out of this post though. His entire case on GK was based off of the fact GK thought Solar was bad town when everyone else thought he was scum. It's funny that he should mention that Arch could be scum based off of previous games when he neglected to mention that in the same D1 of the same game (XXI) a similar scenario happened with a townie named Tube who ended up getting cleared, then lynched D3 before flipping town when people were saying it was bad play d1. Now this could honestly be him forgetting about it or thinking it was a fluke but given his inconsistent posting this game and his convenient use of only the parts of quotes that furthered his "cases" I'm starting to see a pattern that points towards him withholding this information to further his own goals.
On August 17 2012 14:11 YourHarry wrote:I have additional evidence why I think Thrawn is town, which confirm my scum read on Archrun. Minutes before the deadline the vote count was tied between Shady and Thrawn, with four votes each. Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 08:40 marvellosity wrote:
Vote count, cowboys:
ShadySands (4): thrawn2112, SolarSail, mkfuba07, Jhuyt
thrawn2112 (4): ShadySands, Archrun, DarthPunk, Golbat
Archrun (3): Stutters695. Ochrow, YourHarry
Jhuyt (2): goodkarma, Z-Boson
Shady Sands currently set to be lynched. 20 minutes until the deadline!
Unless three scums were all already voting for ShadySands, if Thrawn is indeed scum, one of his scum partners would have tried to move his vote to ShadySands. While Shady was set to be lynched because he was the first player to receive 4 votes, it would have been still dangerous from scum's perspective because all it takes is one townie to switch his vote to Thrawn and the scum would be lynched. But this did not happen, which is consistent with Thrawn being town. Two possible scenarios that counter this argument are that: 1) Scums were simply not around to make last minute changes in this vote. This seems possible because it was pretty close to the deadline when I changed my vote from Shady to Archrun and Golbat placed his vote on Thrawn. This is not completely out of the question, but A) considering that scums still had one hour window to make the move and B) that scum Thrawn means that his scum partners would have been very well aware that Thrawn was a strong lynch candidate (based on discussion that happened hours prior to the deadline), I suspect that Tharwn's scum teammates would have been watching things closely. 2) Thrawn's scum partners were too hesitant to switch their votes, in fear that it would make them suspicious. This is possible, but maybe it would not have been too difficult to fabricate some wishy-washy with reasons for change in opinion. And I do realize that by my own analysis, my last minute switch in voting from Archrun to Shady could make me suspicious... But at this point, my scum reads were Archrun > Shady > Thrawn. So when it looked like Archrun lynch seemed impossible, I wanted to make sure Archrun lynch over Thrawn lynch happens. But in summary, until I changed my vote from Archrun to Shady, which happened like 2 minutes before the deadline, the scums had some window of opportunity to switch their votes to Shady (unless all three were already voting for Shady) in order to provide a some protection against last minutes switch of votes to their scum partner Thrawn. This is not a fool-proof evidence, as there are possible exceptions listed above 1) and 2) but I think this should render additional evidence that Thrawn is town (and thus both Thrawn and Shady are town) which would confirm my suspicion that Archrun is attempting to benefit from mislynching two townies.
This is a great post too. "I'm sure Archrun is scum and Thrawn is town because if not someone would have vote switched onto Sandy to 100% save Thrawn." He then posts some elaborate WIFOM to explain his claim. Possible yes but YH even pointed out the flaws with that plan (again leaving himself an option for when the flip happens and he's wrong.)
YH then catches another nonexistant role-claim from Thrawn. After tunneling Thrawn for a bit he posts about Golbat and Thrawn as a scumteam.
On August 18 2012 16:12 YourHarry wrote:@Darth While it is true that I may have briefly mentioned my town read on Archrun on Day 1, when deciding to lynch between Archrun and Shady, at the time it was only a mild town read based on the fact that explanations given by Thrawn made logical sense to me. After Archrun's post outlining what seemed to be his scum plan of action, Thrawn was indeed almost as good as confirmed townie in my mind. And this was due to my thinking that Archrun was scum. But I don't think I ever claimed that he is a confirmed townie. I did say that he is a confirmed townie if Archrun flipped scum, which he didn't. Recent postings make me think that Thrawn and Golbat are on the same team. This post stands out: Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 15:10 Golbat wrote:On August 18 2012 12:55 goodkarma wrote:
@YourHarry:
Any suggestions as to who this someone else is that we should lynch?
My first thoughts are either Orchrow or you.
You seem to be very interested in keeping thrawn alive as long as possible... I suggest you start making some meaningful suggestions as to who you feel looks scummier. And it would also be helpful if you commented on people's most recent cases against thrawn, Orchrow, and yourself instead of continuing to strive to keep Thrawn alive.
There are situations here where the vigi still shouldn't claim. Like what if there is an sk, but the vigi hasn't used his shot yet? A vigi counter claim here would be terrible, as he could wind up rb'ed by scum and NK'ed before he can do anything.
And if we wait, who's to say town doesn't get a successful medic save or rb? Or that scum or the sk (if he exists) doesn't just sit back and do nothing for one night? There's a few different ways that there could be an sk but fewer than two night kills.
Waiting achieves nothing. My read, and the read of several of us here, is that thrawn is scum. It's time for him to go. Read through the case points against him, and show us why you feel he might be town. It's more productive than your WIFOM defense of thrawn you're presenting now. I am in agreement that we should just lynch thrawn here. We seem to have caught a scum or even two, I think if thrawn flips scum then YH is almost certainly scum. Obviously, from my perspective, this only sounds like Golbat is trying to mislynch me knowing that Thrawn will flip scum. There are other two players who suspect me of being scum with Thrawn: Darth and GK. But despite my previous suspicion of GK, their outlining of cases actually make some logical sense right now and they seem to be actually trying to scum hunt. (And I admit that I may look scummy right now for flip flopping my vote and trying to defend Thrawn). On the other hand, Golbat suddenly shows up and basically sheeps other people's cases. Only thing that seems a bit weird is that he is one of the first players to cast a vote against Thrawn, when day 2 opened, after Darth. However, this may be mafia QT planned action to encourage Golbat to bus against Thrawn - one who is likely to be suspected anyway due to Day 1 mislynch of Shady. More importantly, Thrawn suddenly suspects Golbat, because he is lurking. Even though there are other lurkers, he specifically picks out Golbat just because he recently posted. While I agree that pressuring lurkers is a good strategy, Thrawn did not have any interaction with Golbat... but all of the sudden, he singles him out. Thrawn at this point knows that his lynch is imminent, and that there is nothing he can do to avoid flipping red. This to me seems like his attempt to distance himself from his scum partner in Golbat: Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 15:22 goodkarma wrote:@Thrawn: On August 18 2012 15:04 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 14:52 goodkarma wrote:On August 18 2012 14:35 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 14:29 goodkarma wrote:
A cornered scum would have no problem lying about his role to get out of a lynch, and that's what I see is the case with Thrawn. Like stutters said, a scum role claiming vig when he doesn't know who the real vig is would be pretty bad play because the scum would be leaving himself open to a counter claim when he has no idea who the vig is. The problem with this logic is that no one knows if there's an sk + Show Spoiler +(except the sk, if he does exist) . So, there may not even be a vigilante... The scum player wouldn't know this. He would be gambling on there not being a vig.And you felt it was necessary to inquire if there could be two vigis, a setup that though possible is fairly unlikely. It feels like you're already trying to find an escape route if you get caught up in your lie. I asked if there could be 2 vigs because I was planning on asking for a vig counter claim. Since there could be two I decided asking for a counter claim was a bad idea because if there is another vig and he counter claimed then I would look pretty bad. So then you would agree it's possible, that a scum player would make a vig role claim in your shoes? Honestly, we could argue to death your vigi. role claim, but it's only a waste of time. I want to hear what you have to say about the case points currently against you. Read up on my case on you, which is posted right before the day 2 post. And tell me where in that case I'm wrong about you. I'm tired of hearing role claims and WIFOM from you. The longer you stall in providing an actual defense, the guiltier you're looking. You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town. I'm going to respond to your post, but it is VERY long and references tons of other posts all of which are very long so don't expect a response for quite awhile. I am also busy scumhunting but this is having to be done on my own because I don't have any credibility right now. Just to give you an idea of what leads I'm going after, here is my interpretation of what's going on. So far 3 town players have been killed/lynched. The scum I suspected (archrun and shady) of being behind my D1 lynch case turned out to be town. While this is going on there are a few players that have posted very, very little content. My conclusion is that either the scum team are doing an extremely good job of hiding their actions or that there is at least one, if not probably more than 1 scum among the lurkers. I am currently looking at Gobalt because his latest contribution was a vote for me and his only motivation for that vote was that he agreed with what others have said. Since the shady lynching he hasn't contributed anything beyond the post I pointed out in my post before this one and I would like to hear what he has to say. There are other lurkers too but since he is in the thread right now we had better get him posting while we can. Taken together, I think this strongly suggests that Thrawn and Golbat are scums together.
Again he posts another case that relys on what should be unknown information for the case to hold any water. This isn't scumhunting. This is posting a bunch of What Ifs to make it look like it's useful. So what happens to this case now that Thrawn has flipped Vig. It's completely worthless, just another post of YH looking active without contributing.
Let me ask the town something. What does town Harry contribute with this post unless he's guessed correctly? Is it really a stretch to assume that Harry knew Thrawn would flip town so he could get out of contributing once again? Likewise with the previous post, he implied that if Thrawn is town Archrun must be scum. If he doesn't know that Thrawn is town neither of these plans make any sense. Once or twice I can overlook and just say that even trying to explain it with WIFOM is pointless but between everything I've went over so far I'd consider this more icing on the cake.
Note I'm posting this now because I want to see YH's reactions before lynch time and I need to make sure you guys have time to read it. I've only been through Pg4 of his filter with this case and I'm having a hard time believing he could be town. Please, please, please don't just skim it over and think because it's long and full of quotes its good. Read it and judge for yourself. Just for emphasis today if we get it wrong we lose so be sure he's the best choice in your mind. And if you don't think he is, show why he isn't.
##Vote: YourHarry
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EPT
