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On August 10 2012 13:21 Hapahauli wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On August 10 2012 13:12 Lvdr wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 13:00 Shady Sands wrote:On August 10 2012 12:55 Hapahauli wrote:On August 10 2012 12:25 Shady Sands wrote:On August 10 2012 09:47 Hapahauli wrote:On August 10 2012 09:44 Axero wrote:Since the game started and I didn't know I'd be in it I had previous plans. I've been checking the thread and still trying to feel people out, but since nothing really had anything to do with me personally, I haven't replied. (Not the best play, but again, first game  ) So let me get this straight - your strategy going in to this game was to lurk until your name was mentioned, then FOS the guy who called you out for lurking? As for your first criticism, those two statements I made were my response to YH, not actual suspicions against you, kind of just possibilities. But yes, at this point, it is my gut reaction to your actions.
In the middle of a game of DotA atm, so I'm sure this didn't answer everything you wanted. I'll respond in a bit. Well hearing your "strategy" - you better have some damn good explanations for your play so far. I'm getting echoes of Golbat from XXII. Similarly bad play D1, resulted in a lynch of the Vigi. Since it's a newbie game, I think we should be a little nicer on the guy. It might be better for all of us. I obs'd XXII, and Golbat wasn't NEAR this lurky D1. Golbat was fairly active (~1.5 page filter) and didn't play as bad as you suggest. Axero on the other hand has demonstrated anti-town mentality so far. He also mentioned he'd respond to my earlier post after he was finished with his DOTA game, but never got around to it. Got it. What I was concerned with was pushing a newbie so hard that they end up in a situation where the more they try to defend themselves, the deeper the hole gets, and inevitably it creates a situation where they become the "easy lynch". That being said I've been watching Axero too (if you read my earlier posts). He hasn't crossed the scum threshold yet but he is something I am keeping an eye on. But I want to get a neutral read on him before I start the pressure... I don't want my read on him to be colored by the fact that I am pressuring him. There is also a similarity between Axero and Golbat last game: saying you have things to post without posting them. Tough to read though: as always bad play is not necessarily scummy play. If that was the basis of my suspicion on Axero alone, I'd agree. However, there's a couple of more things that concern me: 1) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=22#423In Axero's first post, he's very excited and happy to play the game: ... then all of a sudden he lurk lurk lurks, and openly claims to have not been reading the thread. 2) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=23#460He posts the above, which is filled with pretty terrible logic (mafia bussing people early on day 1, lol?) 3) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=27#535He posts an FOS on me based on vague logic and gut-feeling. 4) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=27#538In this post, he uses newbiness as an excuse for not checking the thread and promises to respond after his DOTA game. So yeah, that's my case on him so far, and I just convinced myself to vote for him. If you'd like this in Wall-O-Text format, let me know. I think it's easier to read/understand for most people this way though. ##Vote Axero
Adding something to your point #1 :
On August 09 2012 10:04 Axero wrote:
I'm torn on the lurking policy, just because I'd feel bad if I accidentally voted for a fellow townie; but we must do what we must do to save our homes!
I feel that in his last sentence, he says "I'd feel bad if I accidentally voted for a fellow townie" to excuse what he's saying next to it,
Let's say he would have just said : "We must do what we must do !", we would all have been on his case from the beginning !
Adding something to point #2 :
On August 09 2012 14:22 Axero wrote:+ Show Spoiler +That doesn't mean Hapa is a townie. Scum know who eachother are, therefore Hapa could know your alignment and could be setting you up to get lynched. It's a good way to shift focus to someone else while also seeming like a townie.
It is also possible that they are both scum. Setting someone up as a sacrifice to ensure everyone views the other as a townie would seem like a very effective strategy.
Just my two cents.
(Post made from mobile so apologies for lack of quotes)
So, let's pretend Axero is mafia. He says that YOU(Hapahauli) could be mafia trying to get an ally lynched to look like a town player.
Why do you think he's talking about you ? Why are you the one he targeted ?
He knows you're not mafia ! (Still assuming he's mafia)
Adding something to point #3 :
On August 10 2012 09:28 Axero wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On August 10 2012 08:55 Hapahauli wrote:Un-Fos Lvdr and iamperfectionI'm pretty satisfied with Lvdr's activity and defense so far. In addition, he's going after lurkers (Sideni) and is actively defending himself. I see enough similarities with his town play from the aborted game to give him the benefit of the doubt. As for iamperfection, I think I'm falling victim to confirmation bias on him again. My case was based around his "going with the flow," and his questioning of Promethelax kinda destroys that bit of it. I'm satisfied enough with his activity to lay down my case. However, I do find two players very suspicious at the moment: FOS Axero and GoodKarmaBoth players have been pretty lurky so far; Axero with 2 posts and GK with 3. Furthermore, neither has contributed anything significant to the discussion. GoodKarma's three posts have only to do with disagreeing with the lurker policy. He hasn't done anything else while everyone in the town is actively discussing/throwing around suspicions. I find his lack of posting very unsettling. Axero has two posts, one fluff/introductory post, and another that idly points suspicion: Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 14:22 Axero wrote:
That doesn't mean Hapa is a townie. Scum know who eachother are, therefore Hapa could know your alignment and could be setting you up to get lynched. It's a good way to shift focus to someone else while also seeming like a townie.
It is also possible that they are both scum. Setting someone up as a sacrifice to ensure everyone views the other as a townie would seem like a very effective strategy.
Just my two cents.
(Post made from mobile so apologies for lack of quotes) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=24#478As I pointed out in the link above, his ideas are fairly illogical, and it reads to me like a useless-post designed only to point suspicion. I've actually been pretty busy since the game started, but no I haven't made many posts. I'm sorting out my feelings on people and as this is my first game it's taking me some time to get used to it. However you are very quick to point to several people. The feeling I'm getting from you is that you're only being active to avoid suspicion. Seems like you're over doing it a little bit. Might be a snap reaction but it is how I feel at this point in the game.
I want to remind you guys of Day 0.5 !
Remember when I was saying at the beginning that Hapahauli seemed suspicious to my eyes just because he was leading the game in the direction he wanted ? (with the policy, etc.)
Well, he's doing exactly the same thing this time and Axero acts exactly as I did !
However, it wasn't long before I had no more suspicions on Hapa.
Although, Axero haven't changed his mind since the beginning of the game. So, I feel like he would have good reasons in his head to vote for Hapahauli.
Maybe Axero spotted that Hapa was leading and that he could be a threat ? (If Axero is mafia, he knows Hapa is town !)
I don't know what you guys would think about that, but these are my thoughts !
Agreeing to point #4 :
As you said, he never answered after his game of Dota.
Perhaps it's just a null-tell, but with the 3 other points to back it up, I feel like there could be something wrong here.
(Can't add much to this point)
After all this talk, I decide to vote against Axero
##vote Axero
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@iamperfection :
![[image loading]](http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-rWH2_mqHnec/TdE3EerZ51I/AAAAAAAAAGg/liZ4zKrZoV8/s1600/I+know+that+feel+bro.png)
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Since we need my vote to lynch goodkarma, because I don't want a no-lynch and because I agree with what you guys have said about him so far.
##unvote Axero
##vote goodkarma
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If we change our target from now(according to some cases), it will be hard to get enough votes on that target.
So, all on Goodkarma ! :D
I'm not sure if it's a good idea since we have no content from him, but at the same time, it's better than a no-lynch =/
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On August 11 2012 07:50 Hapahauli wrote:
Whatever the result may be, we probalby just got a SHIT TON of information out of the actions over the last hour.
A shit ton of information you say ?
A shit ton indeed ! Enough to show that I'm just bad and that I'll need coaching next time ! xD
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EBWOP:
Will we learn about his role ?
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AWWWW YEAAHHH ! :D
All my gratitude goes to people who believed me in the end of Day 1 ! :D
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Well, if Goodkarma was against me, it means that I'm clean, right ? :D
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On August 11 2012 08:28 fallof9lives wrote:
I would be a first time forum player and i would love to get in if sign up is still available.
Thanks
You sir made me grin ! We're already at night 1, there's no way to sign up to this game xD
I've read all the rules, I want to know what are we supposed to do during night time ? I know that power roles do their things, but what happen of vanilla town players ? Are we supposed to discuss ? (according to the rules we have to post at least once during night =/)
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Thank god, the pressure has been released ! :D
I'm thankful to every town players for your faith in me being bad ! :D
Alright, now, I've looked at the list Hapahauli made of the possible town players.
I agree with all the arguments given ! (From Hapa, Dandel Ion, YourHarry regarding the town reads)
I took more time looking at Promethelax though since Hapa pointed out that he was suspicious !
Ok, let's assume Prome is mafia and let's look at his post where he points at 8 people at the same time ! (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=32#624)
I made a list of ALL the players he thinks are suspicious (what a long and meticulous job !  )
The list :
Dandel Ion
iamperfection
Kronen
Axero
Lvdr
Shady Sands
YourHarry
Sideni
I do believe that in this list are only town players (only if Promethelax turns out to be mafia)
My reasoning behind it is that he wouldn't try to give suspicions on his fellows this early on Day 1. (Note that he hasn't talk about GoodKarma !)
So, if we have the townie reads on Hapahauli, Dandel Ion, Lvdr, iamperfection, Shady Sands, Axero (no shit ! ).
We can cut the list as the following :
YourHarry
Kronen
If Promethelax turns out to be mafia, I will have strong town reads upon YourHarry and Kronen !
As for now, the only players remaining out of the list of Prome are the following :
Hapahauli
Mkfuba07
GoodKarma
As everybody other than Prome, I think that Hapahauli is a confirmed town player !
Which give us the remaining Mkfuba07 and GoodKarma (only one remaining).
So, I would give some attention to Mkfuba and Promethelax during the remaining time of the night AND during Day 2!
To add something about Promethelax being scum, here's a quote from his last HUGE post (where he was saying Hapahauli was suspicious) (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=45#899)
On August 12 2012 02:59 Promethelax wrote:
Well I'm shocked that lynched worked out for us, well done. I would not have joined in that late vote switch, it just seemed too crazy on too little evidence.
He's talking about the possibility of coming back !
Weren't you at work by that time Prome as you said in an earlier post !? (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=37#737)
Extremely strong scum read on Promethelax and suspicious of Mkfuba.
Voting Prome right when Day 2 starts.
##FOS Promethelax
##FOS Mkfuba07
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On August 12 2012 06:45 Sideni wrote:
As for now, the only players remaining out of the list of Prome are the following :
Hapahauli
Mkfuba07
GoodKarma
EBWOP :
I meant to say : "As for now, the only players remaining in the game (when we cut off the town reads in the logic we're going through) are the following :"
Instead of : "As for now, the only players remaining out of the list of Prome are the following :"
Thanks and sorry ! :D
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Alright, going to sleep !
I'll see you guys tomorrow.
I'd still like to have some feedback on my "case" on promethelax and Mkfuba scumteam.
Just your thoughts. Just to see if it's not a mistake from me to think what I'm thinking and to see if people agree.
Hell, just because last case I made was bad (I know this one is more like 2-3 arguments) and now that I find something interesting, I want to know if it's worth something ! :D
See you later and I seriously think that we will win this game ! :D
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@Hapahauli :
I want your thoughts on that :
- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=46#918
- (EBWOP) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=46#919
Do you think it would be valid if Promethelax turns red ? I honestly can't choose between Mkfuba and Shady Sands ... I feel like Shady Sands talks more, so can make more mistakes (even if he's town, it can be bad play. Remember me on Day 1, I had a rope around my neck ! xD)
Regarding your case against him, I like it, but I'm not too sure of your point "Shady's early night 1 actions".
On August 12 2012 10:57 Hapahauli wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Shady's Early Night 1 ActionsOn August 11 2012 11:25 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 08:34 Lvdr wrote:
I'm on my phone, so I cannot start a real case, but shady will be my first target tomorrow. His vote looks pretty suspicious right now.
Note that I reconfirmed my vote on you even after people hit the 6 votes necessary to lynch GK. If I was really scum, why would I do that? This post just reeks of OMGUS. That being said, great job town on wagoning the bastard. I'll admit, I thought his posting was similar to his XXII meta (where he was town), so I didn't think he looked that scummy. In terms of confirmed townies, I'm going to say that Hapa is almost for sure confirmed now, since it's very unlikely scum would bus the GF on D1 (at most they would bus a goon.) By the same logic, the first guy to vote for GK, Lvdr, should also be cleared. Hapa, Lvdr, what are your top reads going into D2? Interesting right? He declare two obvious confirmed townies, then asks them a question about who their top reads are? Townies would have taken the opportunity to scumhunt here. ShadySands is "taking the temperature" of the situation - no one has a 2nd scumread, and he doesn't want to scumhunt. He wants to see what the town knows as opposed to scumhunting. On August 11 2012 13:38 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 13:26 YourHarry wrote:
Yes, Hapa, I will give you what you want. Soon enough. Let me finish reading first.
I clearly outlined why I thought Lvdr and Axero was town. Lvdr in particular felt like he was being coached. Just because you and many others found them suspicious, does not mean that town Harry would have found them suspicious as well.
One thing I found suspicious about Promothelax was that he indiscreetly asked the mod what the rules were on encryption. It was almost as if he wanted to show the townies that he was a power role and he wanted to leave bread crumbs. Realistically, no power role would do that in fear that he will be targeted by the scums. This is especially the case because such alignment-sensitive questions could be asked via PM. I just read that encryption rules post from Prome. There are three possibilities, which are all plausible: 1) He's scum, trying to fake blue 2) If he hasn't rolled blue before, this could be a legitimate question (although putting it in the open thread is a little wierd) 3) He's a vet trying to bait a NK 1 and 3 are the likeliest--3 being most likely, ironically enough, because scum Prom in XXI was easily much smarter and more discreet with his posts. In this post, Shady Sands soft defends Promethelax despite having an FOS on him. Again, strange, mafia-oriented behavior. I think Shady Sands is bussing Promethelax, more on this later
In the first part, you mention the fact that he's not scumhunting and is just trying to take the temperature.
You forget that Shady Sands gives us 2 reads on confirmed townies and then, he proceeds to ask them.
In a way, he could ask these specific players because he knows he won't hear bullshit from a possible scum.
Note that I haven't been scumhunting that much either on Night 1... It's not a huge tell in my opinion, it's more a null tell.
Other than looking at a connection between Promethelax and Mkfuba, I haven't done that much other than looking at what people had to say.
In the second part, you're saying that he's soft defending Promethelax. I think that it's more based on gut feelings if you say that =/ If you look back at the quote you used, you can see that his first point is about Promethelax being scum. It's the first thing that poped in his mind. This, gives me the indication that he didn't think so long to write that down because it was just clear to him.
@Mkfuba07 :
I want you to tell me your role no matter what could happen after that. IF YOU DON'T TELL me or if you're hesitant, I'll consider you as a scum ! Why do I want your role ? Because you're the one, in my mind, that would be the partner of Promethelax on a scumteam. It can only be good for town, believe me !
I know it sounds funny ... (I'll reveal my strategy after Night 2)
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@Hapahauli - Perfect ! Well, in that case, I'll see with the upcoming posts during the day and next night. (And I have a strategy that I can't talk about yet ! Mafia players must not know xD) Promethelax is for sure Mafia, but for the 3rd scum, as I said, I'll see with the next events. Keeping an eye on Shady Sands and Mkfuba !
Sad that we can't get to the lynch right away !
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Admins and mods, when you say that Kronen was a VT does it mean he was the veteran or a vanilla townie ?
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EBWOP : Admins and mods, when you say that Kronen was a VT does it mean he was the veteran or a vanilla townie ?
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@Shady Sands - Same for you, I want you to tell me your role no matter what could happen after that. IF YOU DON'T TELL me or if you're hesitant, I'll consider you as a scum ! Why do I want your role ? Because you're the one, in my mind, that would be the partner of Promethelax on a scumteam. It can only be good for town, believe me !
I know it sounds funny ... (I'll reveal my strategy after Night 2)
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EPT
