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Right now I'm watching Lvdr and Axero pretty closely. Neither of these two are giving us much material to work with, but this post from Lvdr, in particular, strikes me as odd:
On August 10 2012 05:54 Lvdr wrote:
I made that statement because YH's goal would go along these lines: It's a blind town read that could turn into a WIFOM town circle based on hapa's later reaction -- given that YH is town.
Otherwise Yh could be mafia trying to gain town cred by calling someone town (who he knows is town).
If both are mafia it would be quite risky because one red flip casts suspicion on the other in that case.
However they would still be providing some cover to each other.
As i said the point is moot because it was retracted and its impossible to make a WIFOM read on YH if he didn't know his role at the time.
First off, it fits the textbook description of WIFOM (presenting two scenarios that lead to completely opposite conclusions without actually saying which one is more likely). Second, why would Lvdr be trying to talk about what the scum should or shouldn't be doing? He basically illustrates two ways scum could help each other (by covering or by distancing), giving YH either a perfect excuse to improve his posting, or putting YH into a difficult spot with regards to actually changing his meta from XXI.
In essence, Lvdr is pulling off something that's highly scummy: WIFOM that leads inexorably to giving Lvdr the option to launch a series of accusations on YH no matter what YH posts. That's kind of wierd.
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On August 10 2012 05:58 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 05:28 Dandel Ion wrote:On August 10 2012 04:51 Promethelax wrote:I am suspicious of Dandel's play thus far: He started by skating over the policy discussion, which is fair since we all just started a game together. He also suggests a silly policy lynch and doesn't give us a read or an opinion. Okay, first post. Just had to post. Whatever. But almost 24 hours later he comes back into the thread to say: On August 10 2012 04:07 Dandel Ion wrote:On August 10 2012 04:01 Lvdr wrote:
I was writing a breakdown of Yh's town claim... then I read that it got retracted. So much for that.
Given that the claim was retracted and YH (according to him) didn't know his alignment when he made the claim we cannot really draw any conclusions based on it. Any argument would be a WIFOM from YH's point of view, but even YH didn't know what his alignment was.
That's assuming he said the truth. And you should never just assume that. which is basic advice to a newb that we could all give. He hasn't given the thread anything and was so excited before hand. (Look at all of his posts between game 23a and 23b, I am forced to think that something changed and so his excitement died down, I read this as a scum tell and will be watching Dandel closely. Just to clarify this shit, "basic advice to a newb" is the point of this. It's called "Newbie Mafia", you know? I'd like for you to point out the exact syllable that's "scummy" about it. Yeah, I'm lurking so far, I know I know. But so are goodkarma and Axero, Sideni (again) and Shady Sands (not even a single post since the start) I'd like to know the reason why I'm so far above them, because I'm pretty sure you don't have one. Between YourHarry being YourHarry, mkfuba attacking YourHarry for being YourHarry, Lvdr being lvdr, mkfuba attacking lvdr for being lvdr, and the new people doing blanket statements about policy, I was yet unable to find anything I felt I could post on. That's my reason. Right, and we're all newbs so why give basci advice that you know when he surely knows it too? What was scummy was that you chose to say something so neutral after being gone for 24 hours. You left, came back and thought to yourself 'what would improve this thread? Ahh, basic advice' You are scummier than them because SS hadn't posted, I don't know anything about Axero, GK had said somethings which had opinions in them (though not as many as I would like) and Sideni is the same as he was before as town. You are the one who was worth pointing out. Okay seriously? You mentioned a quarter of the players in this game doing something which could be discussed and said you had nothing to discuss. What the fuck? SS and Dandel: don't give me this shit. Discuss the game and the players, we essentially got a free meta test day with D1.0 so we are starting from a better position than we were in on the first day one. I, for one, see more from this day than the one before it. Hapa: I'm glad you are here so that I'll have someone to talk to. Although given that you and I are both known for active scum play I won't be able to get reads out of your activity I look forward to getting reads from your play. What is your opinion of Dandel? Imperfection: unless you are scum you are doing this wrong. I like you a lot but this play isn't good, if you wanted me to make a case well good I did, how did your opinion change? You wanted something from lvdr, YH, Mkfuba and half the other players in this game too. But you aren't changing your opinion after they post more. Why so free with your FoS? And why so restrained in taking it back? I'm all for a wide net but you need to use it right.
I just posted a case below yours, Prome. Did you read it?
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On August 10 2012 09:47 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 09:44 Axero wrote:Since the game started and I didn't know I'd be in it I had previous plans. I've been checking the thread and still trying to feel people out, but since nothing really had anything to do with me personally, I haven't replied. (Not the best play, but again, first game  ) So let me get this straight - your strategy going in to this game was to lurk until your name was mentioned, then FOS the guy who called you out for lurking? Show nested quote +As for your first criticism, those two statements I made were my response to YH, not actual suspicions against you, kind of just possibilities. But yes, at this point, it is my gut reaction to your actions.
In the middle of a game of DotA atm, so I'm sure this didn't answer everything you wanted. I'll respond in a bit. Well hearing your "strategy" - you better have some damn good explanations for your play so far.
I'm getting echoes of Golbat from XXII. Similarly bad play D1, resulted in a lynch of the Vigi. Since it's a newbie game, I think we should be a little nicer on the guy. It might be better for all of us.
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On August 10 2012 12:40 Lvdr wrote:
@shady we have like 19 hours left. Still way too early to have a vote decided. That said, as lurker champion good karma would get my vote Right now.
So your sole D1 lynch criterion is lurkiness? Or is there something else you're looking for in posts?
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On August 10 2012 08:47 Dandel Ion wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 08:28 Sideni wrote:On August 10 2012 07:59 Lvdr wrote:
How does changing the order in any way change whether there was a scum tell or not? Whether I happened to say town or mafia first I think the suspicion would have been similar. Therefore, Sideni's addition reads as quite fluffy to me.
Oh, I thought it was obvious, so I guess I skipped on that point ... =/ Well, first, if you only say "Both Hapa and YH are mafia ?" you look like a real town player (you care for the right thing). To illustrate myself, I'll have to use an example. Let's say you have oranges and grapefruits in a bag and you can't see them. Now, let's say you want an orange. You'll put your hand on one, you'll take it out (closing your eyes) and you'll ask the guy holding the bag : "Is this an orange ?" because that's the orange you want However, you asked : "Is this an orange or a grapefruit ?" Someone wouldn't talk about the grapefruit at all... Now, let's reverse the words : "Is this a grapefruit or an orange ?" First, you would never ask about the grapefruit at all !
Hmmm nevermind, I don't have to keep going on my explanation, I just realized how dumb my logic was xD
I'm sorry to everybody for the confusion xDWell, at least, the fact that you wouldn't usually ask for town is still right ! Bolded part and your analogy that doesn't go anywhere looks pretty scummy to me. There's basically no goal, direction or reason behind this, but you still feel the need to share it with us. You apologize for the confusion, but good town play, in my book, is trying to AVIOD confusion. Confusion, gray shades and everything inbetween just give scum openings for misinterpretations. Please, in the bolded part you clearly showed that you have the theoretical ability to think your posts through, the only thing left is to actually do it.
#In before this devolves into a pointless D1 OMGUS-flamefest.
@ Dande: So Sideni acknowledges that he made a confusing post, so you want to punish him for admitting his mistake? The real scummy play there would be to confuse town and then never mention anything until someone brings it up again.
Sideni here is playing like a bad townie, but I thought we agreed before the restart that bad townie play is not necessarily an indicator of scum play.
What I don't understand out of your posts, Dande, is why you are so bent on tunneling Sideni on Day 1, when we are least sure of anyone's alignment. And note how Sideni hasn't actually FoS'd you--why do you think he's calling you scum?
@ Sideni: I'm going to keep this simple. Make your posts logical, and easy to follow. Instead of posting with heavy lists of rhetorical questions, make points that drive towards conclusions--either calling someone a confirmed town, or confirmed scum. And since you're a newer player, it would probably be best for you to hold back and digest your thoughts into longer posts that add something to the thread or directly justify a vote.
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On August 10 2012 12:55 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 12:25 Shady Sands wrote:On August 10 2012 09:47 Hapahauli wrote:On August 10 2012 09:44 Axero wrote:Since the game started and I didn't know I'd be in it I had previous plans. I've been checking the thread and still trying to feel people out, but since nothing really had anything to do with me personally, I haven't replied. (Not the best play, but again, first game ) So let me get this straight - your strategy going in to this game was to lurk until your name was mentioned, then FOS the guy who called you out for lurking? As for your first criticism, those two statements I made were my response to YH, not actual suspicions against you, kind of just possibilities. But yes, at this point, it is my gut reaction to your actions.
In the middle of a game of DotA atm, so I'm sure this didn't answer everything you wanted. I'll respond in a bit. Well hearing your "strategy" - you better have some damn good explanations for your play so far. I'm getting echoes of Golbat from XXII. Similarly bad play D1, resulted in a lynch of the Vigi. Since it's a newbie game, I think we should be a little nicer on the guy. It might be better for all of us. I obs'd XXII, and Golbat wasn't NEAR this lurky D1. Golbat was fairly active (~1.5 page filter) and didn't play as bad as you suggest. Axero on the other hand has demonstrated anti-town mentality so far. He also mentioned he'd respond to my earlier post after he was finished with his DOTA game, but never got around to it.
Got it. What I was concerned with was pushing a newbie so hard that they end up in a situation where the more they try to defend themselves, the deeper the hole gets, and inevitably it creates a situation where they become the "easy lynch".
That being said I've been watching Axero too (if you read my earlier posts). He hasn't crossed the scum threshold yet but he is something I am keeping an eye on. But I want to get a neutral read on him before I start the pressure... I don't want my read on him to be colored by the fact that I am pressuring him.
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On August 10 2012 13:05 Hapahauli wrote:
Admittedly I'm a bit concerned that he could be Synystyr 2.0. If I don't see Axero' response by tomorrow morning however, he is my strongest scumread at the moment, and will be getting my vote.
Since you're around, what do you think about GoodKarma's lurkiness? You were in XXII, and I'm curious what you think of it based off of GK's meta?
GK didn't post a lot in XXII, but when he did, he made long posts with good analysis. I'm not that worried yet, but if he still doesn't get us something by 8-10 hours before the lynch deadline then that would be weird. If that's the case, then I'd be willing to push for a lynch, if no other candidates have emerged yet.
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I like points 1 and 2. Point 3 is mostly OMGUS and Point 4 is kind of irrelevant.
Here's my read on Axero:
The guy talks a lot about what scum might or might not do. This doesn't read to me as scum play, but it's not pro-town either, as doing this helps scum plan what to do to look town. My advice to Axero is to shape up his posting. I don't think it deserves a lynch.
The player I'm most worried about is Lvdr. Since my last read on him, he's posted the following:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 10 2012 12:40 Lvdr wrote:
@shady we have like 19 hours left. Still way too early to have a vote decided. That said, as lurker champion good karma would get my vote Right now. On August 10 2012 12:53 Lvdr wrote:
Go read the thread if you want to get lurker policy. On August 10 2012 13:12 Lvdr wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 13:00 Shady Sands wrote:On August 10 2012 12:55 Hapahauli wrote:On August 10 2012 12:25 Shady Sands wrote:On August 10 2012 09:47 Hapahauli wrote:On August 10 2012 09:44 Axero wrote:Since the game started and I didn't know I'd be in it I had previous plans. I've been checking the thread and still trying to feel people out, but since nothing really had anything to do with me personally, I haven't replied. (Not the best play, but again, first game ) So let me get this straight - your strategy going in to this game was to lurk until your name was mentioned, then FOS the guy who called you out for lurking? As for your first criticism, those two statements I made were my response to YH, not actual suspicions against you, kind of just possibilities. But yes, at this point, it is my gut reaction to your actions.
In the middle of a game of DotA atm, so I'm sure this didn't answer everything you wanted. I'll respond in a bit. Well hearing your "strategy" - you better have some damn good explanations for your play so far. I'm getting echoes of Golbat from XXII. Similarly bad play D1, resulted in a lynch of the Vigi. Since it's a newbie game, I think we should be a little nicer on the guy. It might be better for all of us. I obs'd XXII, and Golbat wasn't NEAR this lurky D1. Golbat was fairly active (~1.5 page filter) and didn't play as bad as you suggest. Axero on the other hand has demonstrated anti-town mentality so far. He also mentioned he'd respond to my earlier post after he was finished with his DOTA game, but never got around to it. Got it. What I was concerned with was pushing a newbie so hard that they end up in a situation where the more they try to defend themselves, the deeper the hole gets, and inevitably it creates a situation where they become the "easy lynch". That being said I've been watching Axero too (if you read my earlier posts). He hasn't crossed the scum threshold yet but he is something I am keeping an eye on. But I want to get a neutral read on him before I start the pressure... I don't want my read on him to be colored by the fact that I am pressuring him. There is also a similarity between Axero and Golbat last game: saying you have things to post without posting them. Tough to read though: as always bad play is not necessarily scummy play.
This, and posts on people's "lurkiness" as well as his own drunk-posting. First, I'm not sure how posting drunk is any less detrimental to town than lurking. Second, why make lurkiness and incoherent posting the sole criteria for how to lynch D1? Note how neatly the following players fit into that category:
Axero
Sideni
Prome
That's a wide range of targets to pick from, no? Scum want to give themselves options when it comes to picking D1 wagons. While not a huge scumtell, trying to keep the wagon options open as late as possible is definitely not townie behavior. Note that when I tried to press Lvdr to commit to a target, he refused to actually even state who he might vote for, saying it was too early. That's because he wants a situation where, like D2 in XXII, there would be only 6 hours to go and votes are spread evenly across 4 different candidates.
Overall, that's my biggest scumread at the moment.
It's not built on newbiness or bad posting or lurkiness, because most of the time, it's hard to ascribe an intent to those actions; that's why I've been arguing so strongly against accusations built on solely those three items. But with Lvdr, we can ascribe intent. His actions serve to slow down the scumhunt and make inconspicuous wagoning easier.
##FoS Lvdr
Will likely switch to vote unless a good defense or a better lynch target comes around.
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So sorry for being AFK, but my flight got delayed.
Haven't seen any good arguments to the contrary, so:
## Vote Lvdr
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On August 11 2012 06:57 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 06:54 Dandel Ion wrote:
Can we just lynch a lurker now?
Shady Sands preferrably, Axero is also acceptable
I don't think we're on the right track right now I completely agree with you. Something's really really wrong here. Axero is suspicious for the reasons I've mentioned previously, but even his "ragequit" from the thread for the night seemed townie-ish. I'm a bit suspicious of GoodKarma - he's lurked, yet popped into the thread twice to tunnel suspicion on players (Sideni and Axero) all game. He hasn't contributed much, and I wouldn't mind getting a vote on GK going.
Sorry guys, my flight back from Toronto was stuck on the tarmac for 2 and a half hours. Stupid American Eagle airlines. I posted my vote for Lvdr, and I'll do some analysis once I get back home from the office.
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On August 11 2012 07:36 Hapahauli wrote:
LET's ALL VOTESWITCH TO GOODKARMA
Sideni and Lvdr are BAAAD townies! GoodKarma has not stuck his neck out, has tunneled suspicion on Axero and Sideni (easy targets), he hasn't made an original case or provided original analysis, and his play has been waaaaay too clean so far - Day 1 has been INSANE, there's no way people should be this clean!
Wait you guys are doing a last minute pile on GoodKarma because his play is too clean? What?
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I'd be willing to do the pile too, but sometime in the next twenty minutes could someone please recap a case on GoodKarma?
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I'm still very suspicious of Lvdr. Flipping through his recent filter, I see nothing except one-liner posts on who is lurking. This is not good analysis by any means.
Also I'm highly suspicious of this line:
For lurkiness reasons and because I think Sideni is Bad-Town. Also No-lynch seems like it would be a disaster.
The logical way to avoid a no-lynch is to generate a tunnel 30 minutes before deadline on a player that no one had voted for yet. The only way this would make sense is if Lvdr somehow knows that other people will easily join him on such a rapid lynch vote. This would only make sense if Lvdr was mason or scum.
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On August 11 2012 07:43 Lvdr wrote:
3 Cheers for Sideni being useful.
At this point I think we shouldn't shift off of GK. I find Shady and Kronen coming in so late quite suspicious though. Whatever cases they make, it will be almost impossible to really evaluate them before the time limit.
What I find suspicious is how you started a GK lynch train less than an hour before the lynch deadline, because this was the best way to avoid a "no-lynch". This just doesn't make sense to me.
I'm still looking through GK's filter. I'm probably not going to switch my vote from Lvdr, since I don't like being forced to switch votes so soon before a deadline.
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On August 11 2012 07:46 Dandel Ion wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 07:45 Shady Sands wrote:I'm still very suspicious of Lvdr. Flipping through his recent filter, I see nothing except one-liner posts on who is lurking. This is not good analysis by any means. Also I'm highly suspicious of this line: For lurkiness reasons and because I think Sideni is Bad-Town. Also No-lynch seems like it would be a disaster. The logical way to avoid a no-lynch is to generate a tunnel 30 minutes before deadline on a player that no one had voted for yet. The only way this would make sense is if Lvdr somehow knows that other people will easily join him on such a rapid lynch vote. This would only make sense if Lvdr was mason or scum. There are no masons in this game.
Got it. Well then that cements my read on Lvdr. I think this is an attempt by scum to either mislynch a townie or bus one of their own. Highly suspicious.
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Wow. Town is either crazy good this game or scum is bussing. Given that it's day 1 I'm going to say the former is more likely.
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On August 11 2012 08:34 Lvdr wrote:
I'm on my phone, so I cannot start a real case, but shady will be my first target tomorrow. His vote looks pretty suspicious right now.
Note that I reconfirmed my vote on you even after people hit the 6 votes necessary to lynch GK. If I was really scum, why would I do that? This post just reeks of OMGUS.
That being said, great job town on wagoning the bastard. I'll admit, I thought his posting was similar to his XXII meta (where he was town), so I didn't think he looked that scummy.
In terms of confirmed townies, I'm going to say that Hapa is almost for sure confirmed now, since it's very unlikely scum would bus the GF on D1 (at most they would bus a goon.) By the same logic, the first guy to vote for GK, Lvdr, should also be cleared.
Hapa, Lvdr, what are your top reads going into D2?
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On August 11 2012 11:50 Hapahauli wrote:...So that leaves Promethelax as my top scumread at the moment. I find this post incredibly scummy: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=32#624He nitpicks and criticizes a lot of people, followed by a vote on Sideni. Near the lynch deadline, Promethelax picks a mini-fight with Dandel Ion when Dandel Ion BACKS OFF SIDENI, and severely tunnels Sideni until he leaves for work. #1 scumread for sure here.
Nice list, Hapa. I think Prome is scum too. Here's my reasoning:
On August 10 2012 06:11 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 06:02 Hapahauli wrote:Hapa: I'm glad you are here so that I'll have someone to talk to. Although given that you and I are both known for active scum play I won't be able to get reads out of your activity I look forward to getting reads from your play. What is your opinion of Dandel? Nothing much to say on Dandel, as he still hasn't done anything. Like really - he's posted nothing of substance 24 hours into the day. I'm naturally suspicious of people who do not stick their neck out, but I have no grounds to FOS him or anything like that. For now, I'll stick with my suspicions against iamperfection that I recently posted. fair enough, I disagree with you that there is nothing to read in his nothing posts but I see your point of view. Imperfection is a weird one for me since I played scum with him and his play feels scummy but not like his scum play in XIX obviously we're all new and our meta is still somewhat fluid. I have him in my scum column right now but there are people who have posted nothing or next to nothing who seem as scummy and I'd prefer to live the loud scum alive than the quiet one, people who talk a lot will talk themselves into a corner. Shady: How did Axero make it onto your list? You gave reasons for lvdr being suspicious but not Axero. I don't like a name just being thrown in there without a case, it is good play for scum and bad for town. Give me and the rest of town an explanation for throwing his name in there, right now with just his name and no reasoning you are on my scummy list. I guess I have to remove my FoS on Harry, he is just Harry. I'll keep my eye on him but I think that might just be my policy from now on: watch Harry.
Prom seems to be wanting other people to keep pointing fingers at each other. Note how he questions most everyone's cases by asking why they're not considering other targets, then quickly settles down on a lynch target of Sideni... after he accuses half the town. This returns to the motive question: Scum want to spread town's focus among too many cases to thoroughly analyze. I think this is what Prom is doing here, and this is why I'm going to be watching him very closely from now on.
## FoS Promethelax
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EPT
