EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXII
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On July 20 2012 23:57 ghost_403 wrote: Less than a million billion years. There are still three slots left. I'd guess in the next couple of days? Ah. Wasn't sure how many slots there were. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
Step up step right up! | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On July 27 2012 05:52 Promethelax wrote: Hello all and welcome to Newbie 22! I'm excited to finally be in this game. I have, much to my delight, rolled town for the first time in a normal mini. I hope to be able to prove to you that I am as innocent as most of you and much more innocent than our scum friends lead by Marv who, shockingly, rolled scum for the millionth time. On policy: I don't like policy lynches. I feel that town can do better than that and we should lynch scum not liars or lurkers. It is always possible to build cases and to try to lynch scum instead of basing our attacks on a black and white policy. Keir is right about the town RB though, you should hold your power until d2 at least since blocking a blue role can throw us off immensely. Do not RB until you are sure that someone is scum! If you have a perfect read d1 go ahead but I doubt you do. Also Keir: I promise to spell your name right this time. aRyuujin: since you are here would you be kind enough to bless us with one of your Haiku to start some discussion, no need to be silent just because you feel there is nothing to talk about. About the bolded part, I think that early on in a game, there really isn't that much to go on in order to choose who to vote for. I also think that which an inactive player isn't necessarily scum, they aren't very helpful to town. Same goes for liars. That's my two cents. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
Warning: Nub question::::We HAVE to lynch someone each day, right? | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On July 27 2012 08:12 Shady Sands wrote: From a logic standpoint, it makes sense to always have a lynch target each day, because voting patterns, voting times, and the order in which players vote are some of the most important clues that the town can use. For example, if the target turns out to be green or blue, then we can backtrack and start seeing who started the bandwagoning and go from there. If the target turns out to be red, we can see who did the last minute voting or tried to swing the balance away from them, and add those to the list. But if we simply go for a no-lynch, there's no pressure on the scum to actually put their money where their mouth is, so to speak. This makes perfect sense to me, so how we determine who to target initially? | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
Estimated time of analysis post: 11:00AM EDT | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
Just got finished reading the thread pages 10-14. First off on the advice of Promethelax, my schedule for this weekend is that I'll be following this thread throughout the day until about 4PM EDT, then I'm off to a Blue Jays game. Tomorrow is a bit of a milestone birthday for me (official old man), but I'll be back and active Sunday afternoon. Before I talk about the Mordanis-Keir thing, I want to answer Promethelax. The reason that my opinion from "lynch all liars and lynch all inactives" to not feeling as strongly about it is just because I was not aware that a non-lynch was possible. Mordanis's Case on Keirathi I actually got atown vibe from this post. We've all heard about how it is self contradictory and based on a false premise (Keir claiming RB), but I buy Mordanis' explanation that he rushed the case and that the lack of consistent logic and difficulty to follow the case is a result of this. On the same subject, I'm a little suspicious of those players who were so completely convinced that Mordanis is a scum based on this one post, as this was not a reaction I had. Among these people is Shady Sands: On July 27 2012 13:29 Shady Sands wrote: When you look at all that, and the weak logic against Keir, then what you see is the following pattern: Mordanis first claims that Keir is the likeliest candidate for lynching because he a likely candidate to be red. Then he backs off and claims that Keir could go red or green. Then he argues that we should lynch controversial candidates first. The point is, lynching controversial candidates would be fine, if it were not for the fact that Mordanis is the only one stirring up controversy about Keir. This totally smacks of a Red finding out his original tactic for generating a bandwagon has failed, acknowledging that he is the only one arguing for a lynch, and then stating that because he is the only one arguing for a lynch, the person is "controversial" and should be lynched. What? I see this as a GIANT leap of reasoning, and I still see Mordanis's case as an attempt (albeit a clumbsy one) to get the ball rolling in XXII. Another of these people is Golbat: So far, Golbat has, in this order: voted Mordanis unvoted Mordanis FoS Mordanis His unvote seems to coincide with Mordanis's making a case on him. He claims he backed off the vote because: On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote: The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read. I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is #FoS Mordanis + Show Spoiler + This reminds me of that futurama ambassador from the neutral planet. "All I know is that my guy says maybe." I'm not sure what this could mean, but I think that it's worth pointing out. It's one of the stranger seeming posts I've read in this game. Is the deadline today at 17:00 EDT? I am suspicious of both of these players right now, but there's lots of daylight left. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
##vote: golbat | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On July 29 2012 08:09 Shady Sands wrote: Another thing to note: Zorkmid and Obvious both ended up shifting to Golbat with minimal analysis at all. I'd say Zork looks the quietest between the two, but Obvious also strikes me as a little odd too, since he popped into the thread 10 minutes after Golbat's lynch without commenting once in the prior six hours, even though he was trying to get me lynched and people were busy bandwagoning Golbat. Normally, I'd expect someone who was trying to aim for a lynch on someone to at least argue their case before the lynch when the town was heading in the opposite direction. I have a few hunches on where we should go next, but I'd like everyone to read through the above posts first. I've been Partying for the last two days, just had a birthday. I did post ample reasoning for my vote against Golbat, it's here. I made my vote post from a Blue Jays game, (we won 8-3 yea!) but basically nothing of note happened in the thread since that analysis post, so I felt his strange play best merited my vote. (How fucking wrong was I? And 6 others as well. Not a good start). I'll make another analysis post in a little while. How long until night? | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On July 30 2012 06:04 marvellosity wrote: Day post is flavour only, there are no clues to night events within it All that we really know is that we have a roleblocker(medic or otherwise), and that that roleblocker saved a kill. (I don't buy the idea that mafia didn't use a KP, especially not in a newbie game). From this I can infer that the same person viewed as most dangerous by mafia, was viewed as the most valuable townie by the roleblocker. I'm too tired to do any analysis. And frankly from the tone about my posting, I don't have much desire to. I'll answer some questions: On July 29 2012 13:19 Obvious.660 wrote: Zorkmid's vote comes off to me as a bandwagon vote. Evidence against Golbat was that Golbat finally settled on a decision for his best scum read?Pretty arbitrary reason to vote for someone. Can you explain what you mean by town vibe in that post? (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15625737) I could understand not having a definite scum read from it, but implying the opposite it a bit premature. It does seem to be a fairly arbitrary reason to vote for Golbat, I agree. I'll be honest that at the time of my vote, I hadn't been following the game very closely, and Golbat was just the player I thought most likely to be scum as of the time of (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15625737). When I said "town vibe" (refering to Mordanis' case) I just believed he was just trying to get a conversation going, and the reasons he gave for it being a weak case rang true to me. Just saw this question as I was working on my post: On July 30 2012 08:44 Keirathi wrote: I'm pretty saddened by your lack of participation so far. You've shown the ability to make constructive posts. Therefor, I question your vote onto Golbat without much in the way of explanation. Was it just to avoid a no-lynch, or did you actually think he was scum? Also, this quote bothers me: I am curious as to why the possibility of no-lynching makes you feel less certain about lynching liars and lurkers. Not stating a solid stance just because of the possibility of a no-lynch doesn't make much sense to me. Because why risk killing a townie without a good reason. If we lynch MrMedic (as an example of a lurker) and he flips green, what was the point? About Golbat, my reasons for voting for him are re-iterated in this post. I feel a little funny defending my vote to lynch a guy to someone who voted the same guy. Why'd YOU vote for him? Oh right, he played scummy as fuck. Rantddendum: On July 30 2012 07:58 goodkarma wrote: Okay. I'm putting together my notes and writing my long-promised suspect list. Wouldn't usually waste a post stating this, but one-line fluff posts seem to be all the rage.. -_- (MrMedic and Zorkmid...) Tbh it shouldn't really matter exactly how no one died last night. Now that Golbat has flipped, and day two has begun, let's not waste any time getting our cases put together. Not so much a fluff post, but I'm sick of being called out for inactivity on a fridaynight/saturday. I was busy, handle it. On July 29 2012 14:39 Shady Sands wrote: Weird, why didn't he mention he had a wedding to attend in any of his earlier posts in the thread? This seems like a pretty strange after-the-fact excuse for any strange patterns of activity. Same goes for this shit, stop it. You too Keir. I've heard it from several people already. I'm busy, SHUT THE (expunged) UP. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On July 30 2012 09:20 Keirathi wrote: No need to get angry. Our JOB as townies is to question people's motives. We have to wonder if you were really busy or using it as a convenient excuse to lurk. If you want to prove us wrong, don't shout at us that you were busy. PROVE that you can be an active, productive member of the town via constructive posts and well-reasoned arguments. Sorry, you're right. Apologies for the tone of last post. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On July 30 2012 11:21 Keirathi wrote: goodkarma - I just can't imagine a townie reasoning for his disrupting discussions and bringing us back to talking about lurkers repeatedly. Add in to that the case that you made, and for now I feel the strongest about him. Let's have a look at GK! Goodkarma says that he was hesistant to "join the Mordanis lynch bandwagon" early on in the game, a statement in keeping with his lurker policy. At this point he voted for aRyuujin, while averring his suspicions of MrMedic and Promethelax for the same reasons. He then changed his vote from aRyuujin to Golbat, at that time it was the 5th vote on Golbat. GK explains why he didn't vote for shady " he has provided some meaningful discussion for the town, and hasn't jumped on every bandwaggon he sees...". I'm curious as to why after dropping his vote on aRyujin, he leapt to Golbat next, and not those he was originally suspicious of: Myself, Obvious and MrMedic. I know I voted for the same guy, but I'm just a bit surprised at your choice to vote for Golbat given your "call to action". GK, would you have been likely to change your vote a second time, had Golbat done a better job of defending himself? | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
It's 11AM EDT here, at work until 4PM EDT, golfing at 5. There may be more posts from me before 4, but then nothing between 4-10PM, maybe another post then. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
What do you say about Obv's case against you? The post was almost two hours before yours, but you make no mention of it. Did you just not see it? | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
I don't have any strong scum reads at this point at all, and the whole Golbat thing leaves me gun shy to start pushing up on another active poster. Unless I reach some epiphany soon, or am convinced by someones case, my next vote will likely fall upon a lurker. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On July 30 2012 18:37 Ange777 wrote: TLDR: I don't really understand what exactly it is that is supposed to make me scummy. You might say that I am throwing suspicion at every single player (which is an exaggeration!) but I am only trying to get people to talk by pointing out flaws in their posting. Golbat was not online otherwise I would have pressured him for more information so I looked into other players instead. Something doesn't sit right with me about this post.... If I were you, and it was my goal to look into other players, I would strongly consider moving my vote onto them. It's very tough to pressure a player so late in a day cycle when other players have multiple votes hanging over them. A vote on GK would have been much scarier than a FoS, don't you think? | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
It does kinda suck waking up everyday to 50 new posts when I was watching the thread all day yesterday and like 6 or 7 posts popped up, none of any value, but I guess everyone can't be on the same schedule. Schedule today: It's 8:30, I'm at work until 5 (might be another post or two out of me if I get some time), I think I'm going to be around the house afterwards, but I need to mow the lawn and stuff. Might be some evenings posts out of me. As for this: On July 31 2012 20:24 Ange777 wrote: I'll be out for a few hours. For now I am putting my vote on Zorkmid for: - semi-lurking - playing inconsistently: he previously stated that he believes Shady to be suspicious and goodkarma seems to be on his scum list as well but now he says - waiting for others to start cases in order to sheep them We have ~9 hours till deadline so I want to see something good coming from you Zork! ##Vote Zorkmid I honestly just forgot about SS, but your accusation has led me to go back through his filter. I've noticed that he has never addressed my accusation about him. + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 13:29 Shady Sands wrote: When you look at all that, and the weak logic against Keir, then what you see is the following pattern: Mordanis first claims that Keir is the likeliest candidate for lynching because he a likely candidate to be red. Then he backs off and claims that Keir could go red or green. Then he argues that we should lynch controversial candidates first. The point is, lynching controversial candidates would be fine, if it were not for the fact that Mordanis is the only one stirring up controversy about Keir. This totally smacks of a Red finding out his original tactic for generating a bandwagon has failed, acknowledging that he is the only one arguing for a lynch, and then stating that because he is the only one arguing for a lynch, the person is "controversial" and should be lynched. What? I see this as a GIANT leap of reasoning, and I still see Mordanis's case as an attempt (albeit a clumbsy one) to get the ball rolling in XXII. I don't know if he didn't see this, or didn't feel he had to defend himself from it. He was under attack from Ange, and Prom around this same time. The other thing that I notice is that since the night post, the only posts that he has made have concerned: 1. Speculation about what night actions happened. 2. C9++ format possibilities 3. Posted massive quote walls with a useless sentence at the end. This is in stark contrast to his heavy activity earlier in the game. This could mean that he is part of the mafia, and that the medic save/roleblock in night 1 has confused the reds to the point where they haven't figured out how to proceed. It could also mean that Shady is mafia switching up strategies because he had so much heat on him day 1, and he wants to duck it by being more selective about what he If I vote for MrMedic and he is Modkilled does that mean my vote is wasted? | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On July 31 2012 22:28 goodkarma wrote: which is odd given that he had been playing as if he was sure he would live to the morning and this is a really subtle way to say to people “I'm town too, I'm scared of dying” without coming out and saying that you are town. So, first you believe showing relief to still be alive would be suspicious for a townie to do when his name is spelled out in the night post like that? | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On July 31 2012 22:28 goodkarma wrote: which is odd given that he had been playing as if he was sure he would live to the morning and this is a really subtle way to say to people “I'm town too, I'm scared of dying” without coming out and saying that you are town. So, first you believe showing relief to still be alive would be suspicious for a townie to do when his name is spelled out in the night post like that? I also think that your "relief post" is strange. It's sort of WIFOM, but I don't think that as a green or blue I would ever post something like that. It's just yelling out "I'm A TOWNIE huehuehue". I wouldn't post it because it reeks of redness | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On July 31 2012 18:45 Promethelax wrote: @DarthPunk My day two play is how I play the game when I have enough time. I'm glad you found my day one helpful and I'll try to replicate the strength of the cases I built but you'll note that d1 I had my SS case and since that point I have made others which are at least as strong (in my eyes stronger). I honestly don't feel that I am jumping up and down saying “oooh me I'm green! I'm green!” I am explaining the reasons for my play and my actions. As I said there are three goals that I have as a townie. The bolded section of this quote is the MOST flagrant example of saying "oooh me I'm green! I'm green!" that I can imagine. This comes after questioning GK's "relief claim" after the flavored night post (which I agree, is not something I'd do if I were green or blue) Darthpunk's attack on you doesn't hold any weight if your posting history is free from a green claim post like that. But it does now. We as town do win through living and having more obvious townies is a huge asset that is why Mason is an incredibly strong role. Add to this that you're now doing the same thing and sounds like you're probably planning on claiming Mason, given your upcoming explanation. I have an explanation for the buddying thing that you are unhappy with that I will reveal before the end of the night cycle. It has a good motivation and I promise town that I will explain it before the end of n2. I hope that it's a good one. Let's see your "spreadsheet". If you're claiming Mason, there are going to have to be some other claims to back this up. ##VOTE: Promethelax | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
The flavor post might have seemed to GK like a good chance to make a post like that, sort of a fake breadcrumb. The post would have scared the shit out of me too, but I would still absolutely would not post about it. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On August 01 2012 03:41 Ange777 wrote: We have almost only 2 hours left till deadline and 6 guys still haven't voted yet ... Sad shit. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
I have to say, that if 5 people don't vote, and the game mods do nothing about it, I'm going to lose interest in this game BIG TIME. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On August 01 2012 04:33 Ange777 wrote: In my first game ever I rolled scum and I would have never thought of that possibility. What would they gain by faking a medic? Later on the game they could say: "I am a medic On day 1, I saved player X." Might be done to save a mafioso under pressure, or to try and draw out any blues. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
Fuck. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
I'm going to start off by answering questions I've seen and will try and post some analysis either tonight or tomorrow morning. Gf having laser eye surgery tomorrow, playing in this on the weekend. On August 02 2012 05:39 goodkarma wrote: Ange's sudden switch on day 2 I feel is suspicious. His original vote was for Zork for "semi-lurking," and after one post he is "convinced" not to vote for him anymore. This feels a bit too sudden to me, and may not be coincidence. Especially when Zork says in that post of one of his earlier suspects, Shady Sands: This makes Zork more suspicious in my eyes since I can't see how you just "forget" about those you're suspicious of... It felt Ange let Zork off a bit too easily here to ensure Prox's lynching. I did forget about him, early on in the game I found it hard to differentiate among the players. Not sure what else I can say about it. From Keir's "will" To one Mr. Zorkmid I would like to call into question some of your motives: I am saddened by your lack of participation. I understand that it was your birthday, but you've shown the ability to make arguments. Therefor, I question your vote onto Goldbat without much explantion. Was it just to avoid a no-lynch? Or did you honestly think he was scum? I am curious as to why the possibility of no-lynching makes you feel less certain about lynching liars and lurkers. Not stating a solid stance just because of the possibility of a no-lynch doesn't make much sense to me. About Golbat, I did find his play scummy, especially his on again-off again Mordanis suspicions. I didn't vote for him to avoid a no-lynch, I actually have no problem whatsoever with a no-lynch that early in the game. I believe that now we're getting to the point in the game where a no-lynch hurts more than it did earlier in the game, Scum is getting closer to a win. Barring a lucky save, we're going to lose 2 more townies in the next two nights. That said, another mis-lynch is even worse. About why the possibility of no-lynching appealed to me early game, was that it would give us more time to make a better informed lynch, reducing the chance of a mis-lynch of a town lurker on day 2. We all what happened there. However, at this critical juncture in the game, I think it more likely that a lurker would flip red than a lurker earlier in the game. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On August 02 2012 18:17 Ange777 wrote: Okay, so goodkarma's post made me go back to my original case on Zorkmid and I have to say stupid me! Why did I even let go off Zork? Zorkmid Let's go back to see his explanation on my case. + Show Spoiler + On July 31 2012 22:02 Zorkmid wrote: As for this: I honestly just forgot about SS, but your accusation has led me to go back through his filter. I've noticed that he has never addressed my accusation about him. + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 13:29 Shady Sands wrote: When you look at all that, and the weak logic against Keir, then what you see is the following pattern: Mordanis first claims that Keir is the likeliest candidate for lynching because he a likely candidate to be red. Then he backs off and claims that Keir could go red or green. Then he argues that we should lynch controversial candidates first. The point is, lynching controversial candidates would be fine, if it were not for the fact that Mordanis is the only one stirring up controversy about Keir. This totally smacks of a Red finding out his original tactic for generating a bandwagon has failed, acknowledging that he is the only one arguing for a lynch, and then stating that because he is the only one arguing for a lynch, the person is "controversial" and should be lynched. What? I see this as a GIANT leap of reasoning, and I still see Mordanis's case as an attempt (albeit a clumbsy one) to get the ball rolling in XXII. I don't know if he didn't see this, or didn't feel he had to defend himself from it. He was under attack from Ange, and Prom around this same time. The other thing that I notice is that since the night post, the only posts that he has made have concerned: 1. Speculation about what night actions happened. 2. C9++ format possibilities 3. Posted massive quote walls with a useless sentence at the end. This is in stark contrast to his heavy activity earlier in the game. This could mean that he is part of the mafia, and that the medic save/roleblock in night 1 has confused the reds to the point where they haven't figured out how to proceed. It could also mean that Shady is mafia switching up strategies because he had so much heat on him day 1, and he wants to duck it by being more selective about what he My original case had three points: 1. semi-lurking 2. posting inconsistently 3. waiting for cases to sheep In his defense he states he just simply forgot about his previous suspicions. My mistake was that I simply thought could that be a townie who in the midst of discussion loses focus. But if you try to explain this with scum motivation you get this: Scum Zorkmid tries to hide the fact that he forgot who he was blaming earlier. It is so much more probable that a scum forgets whom he had blamed earlier than that a townie forgets whom he honestly suspected. which is odd given that he had been playing as if he was sure he would live to the morning and this is a really subtle way to say to people “I'm town too, I'm scared of dying” without coming out and saying that you are town. So, first you believe showing relief to still be alive would be suspicious for a townie to do when his name is spelled out in the night post like that? I also think that your "relief post" is strange. It's sort of WIFOM, but I don't think that as a green or blue I would ever post something like that. It's just yelling out "I'm A TOWNIE huehuehue". I wouldn't post it because it reeks of redness[/QUOTE] A few of us have stated that this thought alone is not a convincing tell for scummy behaviour. But your thought should be taken as one! You are basically claiming scum in that post! Why do you need to state that as green or blue you would never post that? Because you are red. I can't believe I missed such a huge scum slip! ##Vote Zorkmid[/QUOTE] So reasoning out what types of statements I think that greens and blues would or wouldn't make is my scumslip? My HUGE scumslip? Give me a break. One of the ways that I do analysis is to try and look at the suspicious posts through the lens of different roles. Going through the posts of Zorkmid I still have the problem that he does not make his own cases. Instead he takes wishy washy stances as seen in this explanation for his suspicions against Shady. The above example IS my own case. 1. semi-lurking 2. posting inconsistently These other accusations (and the spoilered points) are just weak, and I've already addressed. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On August 03 2012 00:00 DarthPunk wrote: @ ange777. The zork scumslip combined with his lurky posting habits are certainly cause for suspicion. I don't like his explanation for the statement. He is saying that he looks at certain posts through different roles but does not actually explain the slip at all. What was he trying to say there? It was WIFOM pure and simple. He has not answered the case on him adequately and he has not provided much in the way of cases. What are you talking about? I honestly can't see how one person, let alone two people would see this as a slip. Let me walk you through what I assumed to be pretty straight forward logic. I believe that no smart green or blue would have made the post that Prom did....but he did, hence I thought that he may be red. I'm speculating on the meaning of Prom's actions based on what I would do, nothing more, nothing less. I think that most people followed this logic just fine, as it contributed to Prom's mis-lynch. On August 03 2012 00:00 DarthPunk wrote:The problem with both Zorkmid and aRyuujin is that there is so little to actually make a read from. I don't post as often as many players, but at least what I do post has some thought behind it. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On August 03 2012 00:59 Ange777 wrote: @Zorkmid Zork says he doesn't think that as a green or blue he would ever post that. Why does he need to say "as a green or blue"? This already proves that he does not think of himself as green or blue! Because when he sees the "relief post", he sees it from scum's perspective thinking it would be such a scummy statement for himself to say due to confirmation bias. I'm going to let someone else explain to you why this is stupid. Volunteers? | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On August 03 2012 01:08 Ange777 wrote: Giving up? Not even trying to defend your blatant lie anymore? By what logic does my saying "as a green or blue" prove that I'm red? If someone said, "if I were a cop, I'd check player X" would that prove they're not cops? Why are you tunnelling me with NOTHING? | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On August 01 2012 14:20 aRyuujin wrote: Im so sorry I completely forgot to vote -.- My bad, I knew i would be busy but I didn't put up a vote before hand like I did day 1. Thanks hosts for not modkilling me yet <3, wont happen again I think that you, just like MrMedic, owe us an explanation of who you would have voted for and why. If it weren't for the Mod lowering the number of votes required, there would have been a no-lynch. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
I'm looking at your post about voting records. On day 2, both Keirathi and Prom voted for you. I want to examine their cases on you, since they were made by 2 confirmed townies, as well as Shady's. From Prom: + Show Spoiler + I know it is obscenely long don't worry. It is easy to simplify. There are three points. 1 the use of 'a' instead of 'my' 2 I told him not to do something that is actually against the rules 3 my overuse of the word town and 4 OMGUSOMGUSOMGUS seriously that is the entirety of his case against me. The only point which might be valid is the third but it was a joke (one I now regret obviously) since saying I was pro-town without being pro-town was how Kier had caught me in XIX. I honestly thought the use of town beers and a town line instead of town circle made it really obvious it was a joke. I should have known there were secret Romanians on TL Mafia. So karma: out of those three points one is pants-on-head, one is semantics and one is me being dumb enough to joke around. Where is this case you don't think I can respond to. You have talked about my posting habits as a possible fourth point but I can't do anything about that. I'm here while I am home and awake and that will continue until town wins or I am lynched/nk'd He follows all of this up with a decent case against the same lurker he wanted to lynch d1. Cases against semi-lurkers are the easiest to make as mafia and tunneling one player gives you an easy out when you are wrong about anything else. This play continues to read as scum to me and, therefore, ## Vote: Karma At the time, it seemed like a big part of his case on you was him just trying to turn the focus back onto you, which can indicate scumminess, but he wasn't. He believed your tunnelling, and accusations on "semi-lurkers" reads as scum behavior. I agree with him to the extent that those are the easier targets. You yourself are one of the least active posters so far (in a game fraught with inactivity). From Keir: + Show Spoiler + It doesn't make any sense for a townie to claim that he has reads and not share them before the night ends. If you had died, you never would have gotten to post them, and you would have completely wasted your time and hurt the thread overall. Were you completely unafraid of dying? Also, you said you would post them before the night ended in your previous post - Hide Spoiler - On July 29 2012 07:57 goodkarma wrote: With the day passed, and our first flip, I plan on making a rather lengthy analysis thread on top suspects. I promise to have it before night ends, but don't expect to see it for several hours. . I don't particularly like that you promised something and didn't deliver. After reading through the thread again, I still feel the strongest about GK and Obvious. However, I admit I am still super wary of Promethelax, but I don't know if he deserves a lynch yet. My real concern though is that if he is town, Mafia has very, very little reason to NK him at this point even if he doesn't get lynched. In our last game together, the fact that he was so obviously "pro-town" and still alive by the 4th day was really suspicious. I'm pretty torn about what to do regarding him, because if he IS town, mislynching him would hurt us fairly badly. I will say that his cases in this game, compared to his cases in XIX where he was scum, are 100% better. To use his own terms from the end of XIX: "I liked my pants-on-head retarded connection theories." There is one similarity from XIX and this game that I will mention that I haven't before. In day 1 on XIX, he pushed a case on another townie really hard, and then after day 1 he virtually quit mentioning it for no reason. Or rather, mentioned it a few times but without any real conviction or pressure. It kind of feels like the same thing he's done to Shady in this game. I think that the most salient point that Keir brought up in his case against you was your not sharing your reads before the night was over. You responded that: It clearly states in the thread that I was following Alan's advice. I was afraid that by posting something wrong and dieing, I would be leading the town into another mislynch. Alan has since then brought up the point that it wasn't that impressions were posted, but rather that the people in his game who were night-killed had tunnel vision and were only pursuing single suspects. In other words, yes. Not posting my impressions at night was a mistake, and I realize that now. If I were a town player, + Show Spoiler + (shut up Ange) From Keir's will: + Show Spoiler + Regarding goodkarma, this is what I had to say and I want it remembered in my absence: I find repeatedly pushing to have lurkers lynched is an anti-town trait. Our goal is to lynch scum. You claim it's impossible to make solid reads on day 1, but without people making reads, our ability to get successful lynches later in the game diminishes. Repeatedly trying to sheep us back onto lurkers and away from active cases is suspicious. Just another re-iteration of Prom's point that lurkers are easier to form cases about, and the risk of a scum slip is lower as a result. I agree. From Shady: Shady never FoS'ed or Voted for you, but he has talked about you. + Show Spoiler + Here's my read on GK: I'm not really sure why he would zero in on aRyuujin like that. Basically GK's rationale for lynching people is: Filter people who "appear active" --> Find those who are active but who are light on the content --> Start analyzing and prepping for lynch. So he filtered 3 people out who appear active: aRyu MrMedic Promethelax Then he says hmmm aRyu is contributing the least... and then seems to forget about the other two and keep digging on aRyu. Now aRyu obviously doesn't do town any favors by making his defense consist of haikus, but the shift by GK to just focusing on aRyu was a little off to me. His shift Golbat was well-timed and well-explained, so nothing can be really inferred from that. I'm not suspicious of GK right now, but I am a little puzzled by why he would drop MrMedic and Promethelax so quickly from his list of suspicious inactives, given that MrMedic hasn't voted and Promethelax seems to space his posts 14 hours apart and ignored the giant debate on Mordanis/Golbat entirely. This a third player who suspects that GK's play is essentially focused on the easy targets, as well as continuing to tunnel them after they have defended themselves. @GoodKarma Your posts are big on encouraging others to post cases and contribute, but your filter is lacking in both regards. Prove me wrong! ##Vote GoodKarma | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On August 03 2012 03:18 Ange777 wrote: Dear Zork. As you are the target of my case I would say there is a hundred percent guarantee that you and I won't agree on this matter. So please save me the trouble of having to repeat myself over and over again and re-read my case once more. Thank you. If someone else besides Zork and Jingle hav any questions regarding my case on Zork, I'll be happy to oblige. You do realize that MrMedic was replaced right? I do. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On August 03 2012 03:18 Ange777 wrote: Dear Zork. As you are the target of my case I would say there is a hundred percent guarantee that you and I won't agree on this matter. So please save me the trouble of having to repeat myself over and over again and re-read my case once more. Thank you. If someone else besides Zork and Jingle hav any questions regarding my case on Zork, I'll be happy to oblige. No. You need to explain the logic that led to "that proves you're red". It is not apparent. You do realize that MrMedic was replaced right? I do. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On August 03 2012 05:52 Mordanis wrote: Finally, I think his emotion post + Show Spoiler [link for !!Formatting!!] + is incredibly scummy. The way he had self-control for large parts of the post but lost it for others makes it seem contrived. Like he's trying to walk a thin line between coming off as a frustrated townie and coming off as an illogical jerk. I don't see any townie trying to contrive an emotional post to gain town cred. It doesn't contribute to the scum-hunt, it doesn't help gain information, it is just a defense that appeals to emotion. Scum who are trying to deny information gain incredible help from this, as it detracts from analytical discussion of motives and alters the way townies think about the player. So for 3 major things that jive with scum play plus a possible scum-slip, and little contribution (besides defending himself) ##Vote: Zorkmid Last thing: @ Ange, please refrain from connection based play until you know the flip. Your argument about JH falls apart completely if Zork flips green, so right now its entirely WIFOM. Connection based play is one of the best tools for hunting scum, but if you misuse it by trying to connect before you know how someone flipped, it is meaningless. Just thought you should know that my TL mafia ban from a year ago all began from being tunneled as a townie. Got emotional, make some huge mistakes, year ban. I've learned not to lose my cool since then (a little). Food for thought. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
I am a Doctor On day one I saved Keir. Day 2 I attempted to save aRyuujin. I tried to breadcrumb this early on. On July 28 2012 01:14 Zorkmid wrote: Activity seems woefully slow. I guess that most of you are on different clocks that I am. ##unvote ##vote Mordanis I think we're going to lose. | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
| ||
| ||
. 
