EPTObviously, a massive post on why Promethelax is guilty will be unnecessary at this point. That being said, I think there is a case for Obvious.660's guilt, as well, but after being part of two consecutive mislynches I'm a little more reluctant to tunnel him now.
At this point, I think it's clear that something is wrong with our previous approach. The player most responsible for that was Mordanis ("start the scumhunt early and push it aggressively"), so I started to look through his filter a bit more closely.
I'm beginning to think Mordanis may be scum again, here's why:
When he first accused Golbat as opposed to me or Darthpunk, he doesn't offer any unique reasons why he picked Golbat.
+ Show Spoiler +
On July 27 2012 15:36 Mordanis wrote:
... *Sigh*
I'll begin by saying this: If the people jumping on my bandwagon 1/6th of the way through the first day are town, they are really doing a good job of muddling up the conversation. Look through the thread so far, and see that the only discussion before I posted my case was policy, and that very lenient. There was a lot of "Oop, don't want to attract attention, guess I'll say that we shouldn't policy lynch any lurkers". I admit that I rushed my two main posts, and they may have been suboptimal, but compare that to the entire rest of the populace. We've managed 2 cases so far, and I was one of them. The other is a direct response to mine. I really don't understand why the people who are tunnelling me are doing so: attacking the only person who has posted anything of substance (that isn't within the same bandwagon as you) seems anti-discussion. So while I certainly made a mistake in talking too much about Keir and potential blue roles, the biggest reason that I seem to be "in danger" is that I've been willing to say what I believe. Regardless, I see the bandwagon as being very interesting.
There are 3 people who have had an overwhelming share in the activity against me.
DarthPunk:
He seems to have a hard time with my line of thought. I apologize, my last game ended with me and another player (Release <3) in a duel that had a lot secrecy and enigmatic reasoning. I came to this game expecting the same. If you take people at the face value of their words (In which case, I'm town so don't lynch me :D), then you tend to miss a lot of good reads. The way to catch scum is not to find the first invalid argument, but rather to find the players who are playing in an anti-town way. This includes delaying to reduce the amount of analysis, making the atmosphere bad for town, and muddling with plans. By posting my case on the first thing that I saw, I went in the direction of an atmosphere that welcomes content posting, started the scumhunt before it would have started had I not posted, and laid a fairly straightforward path for the town without explicitly discussing policy. We lynch the player with the scummiest play. So while my read may not have been perfect, my post should have helped town. On the other hand, creating a mass bandwagon on the one person who has posted anything of substance (besides the counter substance) seems to accomplish the goals of scum. Still, he seems more to have an issue following my logic than to be following a plan, as well as being the first to place suspicion on me. I give him a solid "mEh" on the scum-scale
Shady:
The most brazen of my accusers. Doesn't seem to be following the fine points of the game very closely. Still doesn't appear to get that the day cycle is 48 hours and not 12. Has a great time posting out perceived errors in my logic and then votes for me on said perceptions, without seeming to notice that one of his main points + Show Spoiler + makes no sense. Why would scum draw attention to himself on a case this early? Why especially would the scum stick to his guns rather than move on to greener pastures? Seems like really dumb play for scum, although perhaps he thinks I am that dumb. I am pretty sure I'm more intelligent than a garbage can though... Anyways, despite my annoyance with him, his play seems more uniformed than scummy. So to you Shady I say: Read through the OP again, and preferably some of the guides. Your play so far has been far from inspiring. And compared to this group, that's saying something.
Golbat:
The entire time so far he seems to have been itching to get on my bandwagon. His first post with more than 1 line says: + Show Spoiler +
First he makes an excuse for potential scumslips (First time in a non UMS, take it easy on me), and then proceeds to quietly second the position of DarthPunk. He seems to be trying to avoid attention while being able to make excuses later on, with the added bonus of being able to hop onto a bandwagon on me without much thought from other players. His second post + Show Spoiler +
is more of the same: he is trying to come off as pro-town without having to commit to anything as of yet. Particularly of importance is the phrase "I already have an idea of who might be scum". Almost brilliant, as it gives him the ability to jump on any bandwagon that forms. He could just say "Yep, just as I thought" and hop right on. Sure, it works better if the bandwagon was me, but if it ended on anyone else no one could say that he had flip-flopped. Finally, he posts this + Show Spoiler +
Awesome, he jumps on the bandwagon in 2nd/3rd position, early enough that he seems to be "leading", but late enough that he can avoid later suspicion by saying "Shady was in front of me!". He even tries to end the discussion by agreeing that the case on me is open and shut. Vague Pro-town comments + early excuse + bandwagon-ing + anti-discussion = quadruple scummy. So for right now at least: ##Vote: Golbat
+ Show Spoiler [nonsense about Keir] +
... *Sigh*
I'll begin by saying this: If the people jumping on my bandwagon 1/6th of the way through the first day are town, they are really doing a good job of muddling up the conversation. Look through the thread so far, and see that the only discussion before I posted my case was policy, and that very lenient. There was a lot of "Oop, don't want to attract attention, guess I'll say that we shouldn't policy lynch any lurkers". I admit that I rushed my two main posts, and they may have been suboptimal, but compare that to the entire rest of the populace. We've managed 2 cases so far, and I was one of them. The other is a direct response to mine. I really don't understand why the people who are tunnelling me are doing so: attacking the only person who has posted anything of substance (that isn't within the same bandwagon as you) seems anti-discussion. So while I certainly made a mistake in talking too much about Keir and potential blue roles, the biggest reason that I seem to be "in danger" is that I've been willing to say what I believe. Regardless, I see the bandwagon as being very interesting.
There are 3 people who have had an overwhelming share in the activity against me.
DarthPunk:
He seems to have a hard time with my line of thought. I apologize, my last game ended with me and another player (Release <3) in a duel that had a lot secrecy and enigmatic reasoning. I came to this game expecting the same. If you take people at the face value of their words (In which case, I'm town so don't lynch me :D), then you tend to miss a lot of good reads. The way to catch scum is not to find the first invalid argument, but rather to find the players who are playing in an anti-town way. This includes delaying to reduce the amount of analysis, making the atmosphere bad for town, and muddling with plans. By posting my case on the first thing that I saw, I went in the direction of an atmosphere that welcomes content posting, started the scumhunt before it would have started had I not posted, and laid a fairly straightforward path for the town without explicitly discussing policy. We lynch the player with the scummiest play. So while my read may not have been perfect, my post should have helped town. On the other hand, creating a mass bandwagon on the one person who has posted anything of substance (besides the counter substance) seems to accomplish the goals of scum. Still, he seems more to have an issue following my logic than to be following a plan, as well as being the first to place suspicion on me. I give him a solid "mEh" on the scum-scale
Shady:
The most brazen of my accusers. Doesn't seem to be following the fine points of the game very closely. Still doesn't appear to get that the day cycle is 48 hours and not 12. Has a great time posting out perceived errors in my logic and then votes for me on said perceptions, without seeming to notice that one of his main points + Show Spoiler +
if it were not for the fact that Mordanis is the only one stirring up controversy about Keir.
Golbat:
The entire time so far he seems to have been itching to get on my bandwagon. His first post with more than 1 line says: + Show Spoiler +
On July 27 2012 09:15 Golbat wrote:
Howdy guys! This will be my first game of mafia ever that wasn't an sc2 UMS, and those I could never quite get the hang of (mostly due to nobody else having a clue what was going on either). Hopefully, I'll be able to make more sense of the game in a format like this.
As far as the game goes, Mordanis' post about Keir's post where he was "virtually claiming town RB" seems to be a pretty scummy thing to do. It didn't seem to me to be a secret claim of any sort, just a rules clarification. Even if it was a super-secret claim that he could use later, I wouldn't believe him if that was the only evidence he had.
From what I've read elsewhere, that type of posting is classic scum behavior. Look like you're helping the town and trying to hunt scum, when in reality you're just blowing a townie's mistakes clear out of proportion to sow confusion and doubt.
Not everyone has posted, so I don't yet want to commit to a vote, but I've got my eye on you Mordanis.
Howdy guys! This will be my first game of mafia ever that wasn't an sc2 UMS, and those I could never quite get the hang of (mostly due to nobody else having a clue what was going on either). Hopefully, I'll be able to make more sense of the game in a format like this.
As far as the game goes, Mordanis' post about Keir's post where he was "virtually claiming town RB" seems to be a pretty scummy thing to do. It didn't seem to me to be a secret claim of any sort, just a rules clarification. Even if it was a super-secret claim that he could use later, I wouldn't believe him if that was the only evidence he had.
From what I've read elsewhere, that type of posting is classic scum behavior. Look like you're helping the town and trying to hunt scum, when in reality you're just blowing a townie's mistakes clear out of proportion to sow confusion and doubt.
Not everyone has posted, so I don't yet want to commit to a vote, but I've got my eye on you Mordanis.
First he makes an excuse for potential scumslips (First time in a non UMS, take it easy on me), and then proceeds to quietly second the position of DarthPunk. He seems to be trying to avoid attention while being able to make excuses later on, with the added bonus of being able to hop onto a bandwagon on me without much thought from other players. His second post + Show Spoiler +
On July 27 2012 11:31 Golbat wrote:
I think that lynching a lurker day one is only a good idea if we have no reads on people who might be scum. As far as that goes for me, I already have an idea of who might be scum, so I won't get behind lynching a lurker today.
Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic).
I think that lynching a lurker day one is only a good idea if we have no reads on people who might be scum. As far as that goes for me, I already have an idea of who might be scum, so I won't get behind lynching a lurker today.
Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic).
On July 27 2012 13:36 Golbat wrote:
I mean honestly, it's gone on long enough.
##Vote Mordanis
If you're red, try to be less obvious next time.
If you're green, try to be less scummy next time.
I certainly hope you're not a blue.
I mean honestly, it's gone on long enough.
##Vote Mordanis
If you're red, try to be less obvious next time.
If you're green, try to be less scummy next time.
I certainly hope you're not a blue.
Awesome, he jumps on the bandwagon in 2nd/3rd position, early enough that he seems to be "leading", but late enough that he can avoid later suspicion by saying "Shady was in front of me!". He even tries to end the discussion by agreeing that the case on me is open and shut. Vague Pro-town comments + early excuse + bandwagon-ing + anti-discussion = quadruple scummy. So for right now at least: ##Vote: Golbat
+ Show Spoiler [nonsense about Keir] +
I'm really getting bored with the stuff about this. Read my second post about his "claim" + Show Spoiler [spoilered for you convenience] +
, and find for me one place where I explicitly say that we should lynch Keir. All I said was that he isn't blue. Which leaves the two possibilities of him being scum or VT, which everyone seemed to interpret as pushing for a lynch. I over committed to defending what I still believe to be a good read for being 2 pages in, but I didn't try to start a bandwagon on him. If you really want to make a big deal out of a mistake and end the discussion before the day cycle is 1/4 of the way done, by all means just vote for me and agree that its obvious. If you don't feel that way, do your own analysis and point fingers. Town doesn't win by singing Kum Ba Yah, My Lord.
On July 27 2012 12:44 Mordanis wrote:
Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going. I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide:In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum.
Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide: Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler +). That's why I feel Keir isn't blue, because he seems to be trying to seem blue but some of his actions are the opposite. And there was the public question: when I was vigi, I asked several questions about my role, but to try to hide my role I never posted them publically, I PMd them. His play screams to me a somewhat experienced player trying to fake blue.
I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss.
TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red.
Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going. I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide:In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum.
Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide: Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler +
way too much!!!!
I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss.
TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red.
Mord's first point, that Golbat is itching to lynch him, is just OMGUS.
His second point, that Golbat is just excusing himself of potential scumslips when he claims he's a new player, doesn't hold much water when you consider that Mordanis himself claims excuses regarding fatigue:
+ Show Spoiler +
On July 31 2012 16:26 Mordanis wrote:
EBWOP
I don't trust myself to think coherently for at least 45 minutes, so I'll start analyzing then. Mayben 1/2 hour from then?
EBWOP
I don't trust myself to think coherently for at least 45 minutes, so I'll start analyzing then. Mayben 1/2 hour from then?
On July 31 2012 16:24 Mordanis wrote:
Sorry, life exists. The details are boring, but I worked about 9 hours today with a 6 hr. lunchbreak. I spent that time playing Deus Ex because I'm really tired. The details are also irrelevant because I'll be able to post much more tomorrow. Anyways, I'm not going to post anything more right now because I just had trouble counting to 16. Literally. My sincere apologies. I'll be back though in around about 9 hours to help catch some scum. Anyways, regardless of whether loud mafia will scumslip/burnout, I have been far too inactive, and I understand suspicion for that reason. I will however do my best to come up with some fresh ideas when I return. Feel free to hold me to this, as I should be back 5ish (I think?) hours before the deadline.
I just realized that even 5 hours may not be enough to clear my inactivity or change the vote. Caffeine incoming, I should be back in about 45 minutes.
I just realized that even 5 hours may not be enough to clear my inactivity or change the vote. Caffeine incoming, I should be back in about 45 minutes.
Note that these posts claiming fatigue are a lot more troubling than even posts that clearly delineate periods of inactivity OR excuses about newbieness, because they give Mord the option to come back into the thread whenever he is "not tired".
Mord's third point on Golbat, that Golbat is retaining the option to bandwagon a random non-lurker by stating he has an idea of who scum is but isn't committing, is actually not true, because if you read what Golbat wrote:
Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic).
Then it becomes obvious that Golbat was actually stating clearly who his idea of scum might be.
So now it becomes apparent that Mord was just tunneling Golbat. Of course, Golbat didn't help things by basically reacting in the worst possible way to Mord's accusations, and then he ran into Keir and me tag teaming him too. But then I started thinking--what if Mord intentionally picked on Golbat because Golbat was newb?
Then I started thinking about Mord's posts on Promethelax.
+ Show Spoiler +
Was hoping I wouldn't have to do this, but here goes. I do not understand Promethelax's play. It has been at times hypocritical, illogical, and bad. I see very little scum motivation for the way he's been playing, assuming he's a competent player. I don't see any town motivation either, so I would prefer to wait to see if he continues to play the way he has. I haven't been able to look into GK's play much, and Promethelax's case on him isn't very strong, so I can't in good conscience vote for him unless I see another good case on him. Shady is in a similar position to Prom where he's had lurky play one day and weird play the other. Still, I can't seem to pin his play in this cycle as scummy. I don't know why people are suspicious of Zork.
In other words, we have kind of a lousy set of cases today, for which I hold myself partly responsible. All in all though, I feel that Promethelax is the best target. His play could be described as a way to disrupt the scum-hunt, to get into a position of town-trust, to buddy up with players to make them feel bad for voting for him. I actually feel bad voting for him at this point, but he is my strongest read.
In other words, we have kind of a lousy set of cases today, for which I hold myself partly responsible. All in all though, I feel that Promethelax is the best target. His play could be described as a way to disrupt the scum-hunt, to get into a position of town-trust, to buddy up with players to make them feel bad for voting for him. I actually feel bad voting for him at this point, but he is my strongest read.
He basically says he has no real reason for voting Promethelax unless someone else leads the way with a good case, then...votes for him. Based on GK's voting history analysis above, Mord actually casted the second-to-last vote.
This also got me thinking: Keir might have given his mason connections away when he posted that "defense post" of me at the end of D1. Then Mord, if scum, knows that Keir can pull my vote on Prome, so Mord actually casted the deciding vote on Prome.
So Mord casts the deciding vote on Prome while saying he feels really bad about Prome. Then you contrast this with his attitude towards lynches:
From Ver's Town Guide:
The most useless kind of lynch is a last minute switch that is really easy and safe to hop on the bandwagon for. If there's a highly polarized lynch, the dead information + voting lists can provide a lot, even if the people accused are all innocent (then you can see who's manipulating just out of site).
In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum.
The most useless kind of lynch is a last minute switch that is really easy and safe to hop on the bandwagon for. If there's a highly polarized lynch, the dead information + voting lists can provide a lot, even if the people accused are all innocent (then you can see who's manipulating just out of site).
In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum.
So basically Mord knew Prome was a useless lynch, somebody that he himself did a last minute switch on, and Mord still went ahead even though he thought Prome himself wasn't that scummy. Mord cast the deciding vote on Prome even though he knew Prome's lynch was useless and Prome was not that scummy.
But if you read Mord's analysis of Prome, this is where it starts to get interesting.
+ Show Spoiler +
On July 31 2012 19:10 Mordanis wrote:
I'm really confused by Promethelax's play. He just admonished me for fluff posts. His entire first page of his filter is fluff. He comments on my opening case being really bad, regardless of my alignment. Look at his first FOS: + Show Spoiler +
. The reasoning seems to be that Zork isn't an expert yet. I don't see why not knowing the setup in the first hour and a half is scummy. This case makes my own seem sophisticated. His second case is reasonably sound, but when Darth says that my case about Angie is ironic, it pales in comparison to his own. Having only posted the one case, ask for others' opinions, and posted fluff + Show Spoiler [No, Really] +
, some people (DP + Ange) post others whom they perceive to be relatively inactive. Neither DarthPunk nor Ange mention him though. Then he makes his second case on Golbat + Show Spoiler +
, which contains the nugget: "Where he puts a lot of bull shit into the thread and nothing real. He literally used post counts to increase the size of his filter." I'd like to know how you, Promethelax, can try to moderate for inane/useless posts when you've been at least as bad as anyone else.
The other thing that confuses me is the petulance with which Promethelax is trying to become the "town mayor". Here are a few examples: + Show Spoiler +
. Now I am familiar with how some things in this game just don't function the way you'd expect them to, but why town would need a leader is beyond me. People who disrupt scum-hunting should be noticed, but I don't know why having a judiciary saying "Thou shalt not do X" helps, especially when scum tend to try to gain that position quite often. And why town only needs one analyst is also beyond me, as it seems that the more the merrier. I think scum would be the ones wanting people following one of 2 people at all times, not town.
Essentially, from what I've read about XIX Promethelax kind of mauled town by getting into the "town circle", and controlling the game from there. I don't think a smart person could try the same strategy against people its already been used on and expect to win again. For that reason, Promethelax's inconsistent/illogical/ seems to be a mild indicator of scumminess. Also, being relatively inactive during one day reduces the amount of stuff any player needs to defend himself later.
Edit before having to double post (EBHTDP)
I am still confused by large parts of his play. For instance the part about lynching semi-lurkers seems sort of like what he's doing. GK hasn't posted nearly as many times as Prom himself, myself, Keir, Ange, Obvious, or Shady. 6 players of 12 left have 3 or more pages in their filter, the other 6 have 2. GK has spent a lot of his time defending himself, so if you take that away he's pretty lurky. But the caffeine is wearing off now, see y'all in the morning. Still, I like the content he generated with that post on GK, so I'll be watching Prom closely. I seriously need to pass out now though :/
I'm really confused by Promethelax's play. He just admonished me for fluff posts. His entire first page of his filter is fluff. He comments on my opening case being really bad, regardless of my alignment. Look at his first FOS: + Show Spoiler +
On July 27 2012 18:55 Promethelax wrote:
I'd like to bring some attention to Zorkmid:
He starts with policy talk, as we all did.
Follows it up with an immediate about face when he learns about the no-lynch option
He leaves hoping for more from others
and after that comes back with a question and than dissapears
That was over ten hours ago, I don't get it. Where did you go Zork?
I don't like his play so far and, thus, a FoS is declared.
I'd like to bring some attention to Zorkmid:
He starts with policy talk, as we all did.
Follows it up with an immediate about face when he learns about the no-lynch option
He leaves hoping for more from others
and after that comes back with a question and than dissapears
That was over ten hours ago, I don't get it. Where did you go Zork?
I don't like his play so far and, thus, a FoS is declared.
On July 27 2012 07:18 Promethelax wrote:
Okay Ghost, will do.
Okay Ghost, will do.
On July 27 2012 07:26 Promethelax wrote:
You win for my favourite response ever. If you are ever in my neck of the woods hit me up and I'll buy you a drink just for that.
You win for my favourite response ever. If you are ever in my neck of the woods hit me up and I'll buy you a drink just for that.
On July 27 2012 07:37 Promethelax wrote:
Unrelated to the discussion so far after reading Shady Sands' Op here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355847 I expect awesome posts from him/her.
Slim Shady: you've got some awesome to live up to.
Since we haven't been productive so far I would like us to turn our attention to pressure: I for one am concerned that MrMedic may not be a medic and is lying about his role in his name. Okay, what I'm actually concerned about is that all he posted is that he is here. I want more.
Unrelated to the discussion so far after reading Shady Sands' Op here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355847 I expect awesome posts from him/her.
Slim Shady: you've got some awesome to live up to.
Since we haven't been productive so far I would like us to turn our attention to pressure: I for one am concerned that MrMedic may not be a medic and is lying about his role in his name. Okay, what I'm actually concerned about is that all he posted is that he is here. I want more.
On July 27 2012 07:38 Promethelax wrote:
EBWOP: I'm also concerned that his post was edited. Watch yourself my man or Ghost will smite you with his mighty powers.
EBWOP: I'm also concerned that his post was edited. Watch yourself my man or Ghost will smite you with his mighty powers.
On July 27 2012 08:27 Promethelax wrote:
My girlfriend got home so I don't have time to read one last time before going to work. I'll see you in 10-12 hours. Good luck town.
My girlfriend got home so I don't have time to read one last time before going to work. I'll see you in 10-12 hours. Good luck town.
On July 27 2012 21:49 Promethelax wrote:
Alright, I'll look into their filters and see if anything is popping there.
What I found, and still find weird about shady is this:
+ Show Spoiler +
Where he puts a lot of bull shit into the thread and nothing real. He literally used post counts to increase the size of his filter.
the other thing in here I want to focus on is his lets wait attitude. for example:
from the above post and others
He also says that
both of these things push town away from hunting for scum, attempting to prevent scum hunting is a huge scum trait. On top of this he misrepresents the facts in newbie 21 (I think) Hopeless1der was lynched d1 as scum so scum hunting has shown to be effective recently.
He also replys to my advice by saying
scum will blue snipe, they will kill players who won't vote for the right mislynch or who are tunneling scum. There are a million reasons for scum to shoot a bad town player so his first point is wrong and his second point again pushes us away from scum hunting since he insists that vigi shots are our most powerful tool. No they aren't. We are the most powerful town asset and scum hunting is the most powerful town tool.
His next post tells us to wait for more people to post until we make cases and the one after that is a case...
Sands tells us that we should still hold off even though this guy is the best lynch target. He also tells us that he will likely flip green based on (I assume) the statistics which seems, to me, to be a way to distance himself from a Mord town flip.
What originally felt scummy to me in Sands' filter was this post where he says:
Re-read that. Do yourself a favour and beat your face against a hard surface. He think that Mord will flip green unless he replys in the way that he (Sands) expects him to in which case he is red...alrighty than.
I also hate this post:
the bolded part at the end is essentially saying that we should lynch Golbat and if he is green lynch Mord. That seems to be setting us up for two mislynches and, if Sands ever flips red these two are pretty much confirmed town.
So based on Sands' play I think that he is scum. He has earned my FoS and as of this moment he would be my vote if nothing changed between now and lynch. I'll be keeping my eye on him because, as he said, just replace Mord with Sands and you see the truth of the statement. He has to keep going and, as Keir well knows, loud scum are easy to find.
Alright, I'll look into their filters and see if anything is popping there.
What I found, and still find weird about shady is this:
+ Show Spoiler +
On July 27 2012 08:38 Shady Sands wrote:
I'm not sure how Keir telling RB not to use their powers equals Keir roleclaiming as RB. Of course Day 1 roleclaiming is suspicious but this post doesn't fit the bill. But if a clear consensus emerges that he's suspicious, I'd volunteer myself to watch his posting behavior.
That said, I do think Day 1 scumhunting could work--but only after everyone (or nearly everyone) has posted. I'm going to go down the list of posters now and do a quick tally.
Ange777 - No posts yet
Keirathi - Six posts
Promethelax - More than 10 posts
alan133 - 1 "GLHF" post
Mordanis - Three posts
Obvious.660 - 2 posts
MrMedic - 1 post, edited
aRyuujin - 2 posts, both haiku
DarthPunk - No posts yet
goodkarma - No posts yet
Golbat - No posts yet
Shady Sands - 2 posts so far
Zorkmid - 5 posts
Players in order of activity:
Promethelax
Keirathi
Zorkmid
Mordanis
Obvious.660
aRyuujin
Shady Sands
alan133
MrMedic
-- Lurkers --
Ange777
Darthpunk
goodkarma
Golbat
Once the remaining few lurkers have posted, then we can start scumhunting.
The next task is to read through past mafia games and find those with successful Day 1 scumhunts--and see what common lessons can be drawn from them. I'm going to compile a list of those right now.
I'm not sure how Keir telling RB not to use their powers equals Keir roleclaiming as RB. Of course Day 1 roleclaiming is suspicious but this post doesn't fit the bill. But if a clear consensus emerges that he's suspicious, I'd volunteer myself to watch his posting behavior.
That said, I do think Day 1 scumhunting could work--but only after everyone (or nearly everyone) has posted. I'm going to go down the list of posters now and do a quick tally.
Ange777 - No posts yet
Keirathi - Six posts
Promethelax - More than 10 posts
alan133 - 1 "GLHF" post
Mordanis - Three posts
Obvious.660 - 2 posts
MrMedic - 1 post, edited
aRyuujin - 2 posts, both haiku
DarthPunk - No posts yet
goodkarma - No posts yet
Golbat - No posts yet
Shady Sands - 2 posts so far
Zorkmid - 5 posts
Players in order of activity:
Promethelax
Keirathi
Zorkmid
Mordanis
Obvious.660
aRyuujin
Shady Sands
alan133
MrMedic
-- Lurkers --
Ange777
Darthpunk
goodkarma
Golbat
Once the remaining few lurkers have posted, then we can start scumhunting.
The next task is to read through past mafia games and find those with successful Day 1 scumhunts--and see what common lessons can be drawn from them. I'm going to compile a list of those right now.
Where he puts a lot of bull shit into the thread and nothing real. He literally used post counts to increase the size of his filter.
the other thing in here I want to focus on is his lets wait attitude. for example:
from the above post and others
He also says that
both of these things push town away from hunting for scum, attempting to prevent scum hunting is a huge scum trait. On top of this he misrepresents the facts in newbie 21 (I think) Hopeless1der was lynched d1 as scum so scum hunting has shown to be effective recently.
He also replys to my advice by saying
scum will blue snipe, they will kill players who won't vote for the right mislynch or who are tunneling scum. There are a million reasons for scum to shoot a bad town player so his first point is wrong and his second point again pushes us away from scum hunting since he insists that vigi shots are our most powerful tool. No they aren't. We are the most powerful town asset and scum hunting is the most powerful town tool.
His next post tells us to wait for more people to post until we make cases and the one after that is a case...
Sands tells us that we should still hold off even though this guy is the best lynch target. He also tells us that he will likely flip green based on (I assume) the statistics which seems, to me, to be a way to distance himself from a Mord town flip.
What originally felt scummy to me in Sands' filter was this post where he says:
Re-read that. Do yourself a favour and beat your face against a hard surface. He think that Mord will flip green unless he replys in the way that he (Sands) expects him to in which case he is red...alrighty than.
I also hate this post:
the bolded part at the end is essentially saying that we should lynch Golbat and if he is green lynch Mord. That seems to be setting us up for two mislynches and, if Sands ever flips red these two are pretty much confirmed town.
So based on Sands' play I think that he is scum. He has earned my FoS and as of this moment he would be my vote if nothing changed between now and lynch. I'll be keeping my eye on him because, as he said, just replace Mord with Sands and you see the truth of the statement. He has to keep going and, as Keir well knows, loud scum are easy to find.
The other thing that confuses me is the petulance with which Promethelax is trying to become the "town mayor". Here are a few examples: + Show Spoiler +
On July 31 2012 17:33 Promethelax wrote:
If you have set up questions ask the host otherwise you are just wasting thread space and padding your filter while adding nothing to the thread.
If you have set up questions ask the host otherwise you are just wasting thread space and padding your filter while adding nothing to the thread.
On July 30 2012 18:14 Promethelax wrote:
Sorry I'm on my way to bed and I figured I would quickly reply to Karma before falling asleep. I am sure I'll miss some points but the basic one of why is my play so different now than it was is that I work Tuesday-Saturday. I play better on my days off.
As to the town leader thing: I just spent like ten minutes looking for the quote but couldn't find it. I think it was Marv who said (and I'm paraphrasing) "town needs two things, a good annalist and a good leader; they don't have to be the same person they just both have to exist" I'm not saying I should be a town leader or a town analyst, I am saying that town is following my analysis and that I am taking things said by players whom I greatly respect and trying to forge my town play around that. If the two things that town needs are a good leader and someone with good analysis I will try to provide both.
I think you and I don't see eye to eye on what a town leader is. I'm not saying we should elect a mayor, I'm saying having someone who is clearly pro-town trying to create a pro-town environment is a necessity for town. By town leader I mean someone who is creating an environment where town flourishes even if the person creating that environment has their head up their ass on every single one of their reads.
Sorry I'm on my way to bed and I figured I would quickly reply to Karma before falling asleep. I am sure I'll miss some points but the basic one of why is my play so different now than it was is that I work Tuesday-Saturday. I play better on my days off.
As to the town leader thing: I just spent like ten minutes looking for the quote but couldn't find it. I think it was Marv who said (and I'm paraphrasing) "town needs two things, a good annalist and a good leader; they don't have to be the same person they just both have to exist" I'm not saying I should be a town leader or a town analyst, I am saying that town is following my analysis and that I am taking things said by players whom I greatly respect and trying to forge my town play around that. If the two things that town needs are a good leader and someone with good analysis I will try to provide both.
I think you and I don't see eye to eye on what a town leader is. I'm not saying we should elect a mayor, I'm saying having someone who is clearly pro-town trying to create a pro-town environment is a necessity for town. By town leader I mean someone who is creating an environment where town flourishes even if the person creating that environment has their head up their ass on every single one of their reads.
Essentially, from what I've read about XIX Promethelax kind of mauled town by getting into the "town circle", and controlling the game from there. I don't think a smart person could try the same strategy against people its already been used on and expect to win again. For that reason, Promethelax's inconsistent/illogical/ seems to be a mild indicator of scumminess. Also, being relatively inactive during one day reduces the amount of stuff any player needs to defend himself later.
Edit before having to double post (EBHTDP)
I am still confused by large parts of his play. For instance the part about lynching semi-lurkers seems sort of like what he's doing. GK hasn't posted nearly as many times as Prom himself, myself, Keir, Ange, Obvious, or Shady. 6 players of 12 left have 3 or more pages in their filter, the other 6 have 2. GK has spent a lot of his time defending himself, so if you take that away he's pretty lurky. But the caffeine is wearing off now, see y'all in the morning. Still, I like the content he generated with that post on GK, so I'll be watching Prom closely. I seriously need to pass out now though :/
Basically Mord was the second one to write a long post accusing Prome in the thread--the first one was Darthpunk. But Mord is the first one to actually bring up Prome's glaring weakness: his mauling of the town in XIX, which suggests that he actually did his own research on the matter and wanted others to know about this fact. Soon as he figures that out, he jumps on the Prome bandwagon.
So Mord's modus operandi seems to be exclusively targeting players with big, easily exploitable weaknesses, then encouraging bandwagons to form on them. Golbat's newbieness. Prome's repeat of his XIX playstyle. Every single day, Mord will wait for someone to expose a weakness, then try to tunnel them--and he explicitly states that this is his strategy for the town--to pressure people. Then, when people even jump on his bandwagons, he then accuses them of suspicious post timing:
3.) What was scummy about your patterns were, simply, the patterns. The timing was just so perfect to minimize the fallout from the results. As the second person to vote for Golbat, you avoid suspicion for jumping on a bandwagon. Pressuring other players is good, but it also separates you from your case on the person you voted for. The exact timing of tunelling Golbat when the day was wide open, Mixing your play when the lynch would go between Golbat or SS, and then exclusively pressuring other players when it became clear that Golbat would be lynched seems tailored to avoid negative attention. So perfectly tailored it seems more likely that you somehow knew Golbat would flip town than random play.
So basically Mord is trying to set up a lynch chain without us even noticing it or him even stating it. He's set up a rhythm here: find a weakness that isn't directly related to being scummy (newbieness and past play), second an accusation, then sit back and watch the fireworks, and possibly set up a (mis)lynch for the next day if possible. All this smacks of a very aggressive scum play.
And the icing on the cake: now that town already is down three members, including two power roles, Mord is going quiet.
Bravo Mord, but your time is up. ##Vote Mordanis.
