EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXII - Page 2
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 28 2012 20:36 Promethelax wrote: Hi all! Back from work late and I'm blasted to bare with me if I'm not making sense, I'll clarify after I sleep and wake up if anything is obfuscated by my mental sate right now. Well, a few things have changed since I was away, I see. aR: I actually found your Haiku to be pretty easy to read. I'm glad you stopped with them since one or two took some time for me to work out but in general I don't feel that they obscured your ideas too much. Unless I'm shit-house retarded this was posted two hours ago by SS and he never said anything else. I'll be voting for him based on my earlier case and his lurky response to it, if there was a case on me I'd do my damndest to explain my behaviour to town and make sure that people hunt scum instead of me. So, Shady seems really suspicious to me and I will be voting for him, I hope you all will join me and lynch this scum bastard today. I'll be up for a while more and may pop back in to the thread before going to sleep. I probably won't post again after sleeping until 24 hours from now when I get out of work tomorrow. For now: ##Vote: ShadySands Have a more substantive post on the front burner, but I think this post is something we need to note. Look through Promethelax's filter: he makes an accusation against me, then signs off, sees no response to his accusations and says I'm lurking, then calls for a lynch because someone hasn't responded to his accusations yet. His reasoning in going from FoS Shady Sands to Vote Shady Sands is a single two-hour old post that says I'm reading through the thread. I think we have better candidates to lynch, but this behavior strikes me as fairly scummy. | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 28 2012 20:42 alan133 wrote: Goodkarma I disagree that we should focus on lynching lurkers at this point of time. We have better lynch targets out there, so I suggest we focus on them. The problem with lynching lurkers day 1 is that it is much harder to make the correct call this early on. Later into the game, townies get more information so we can make a better decision when it comes to low content poster. Also, when it comes to lurking, there are two types of them: 1) Those that post very little, and 2) those that post a lot of junk post. I suggest we drop the lynch lurker discussion and go on scumhunting. It is fine if you want to call out a lurker but with better evidence other than "he lurks". The first successful lynch we got in my last game was a lurker, and despite having very little post count they are all really scummy. The reason you voted aRyuujin also fits in a few other players, MrMedic, Keirathi and Zorkmid to name a few. You addressed one more point why you intend to lynch him instead of the others:
I don't think you should pursue a aRyuujin lynch as of now, a few players have argue that they are not in favor of a lurker lynch (That includes me). I skimmed through his post and the scummy thing I got off him is his poems, which he stopped doing. Current Situation That said, I am feeling very uncomfortable with how the game is progressing. Compare to my first game, the activity level is really poor, and the "active posts" were mostly about Mordanis, Golbat and Shady, based on what has been brought up since 24 hours ago. Also, I did not count, but the impression I got was that is set to be lynched. I feel discouraged because I read Golbat is the least scummy one, of all 3. So I did a re-read on all their filters. Shady I went through Shady's post. Skimming through his filter reminded me of this eerie feeling when I read about his policies and advices, which a few other players have highlighted, so I am not going to repeat after them. There are also one other post in his filter that I am not a big fan of: Like I said, our focus is to lynch a scum, not what happens if player x flips scum. This is the kind of post that got Scum killed in my first game. However, the severity aren't as bad as the one since it is not a list of "what if we kill this player". Also, although my last game has a successful day 1 lynch, I thought Shady just missed it since there are so many games out there. However, Mordanis' did a list of day 1 lynch and from there I saw day 1 scum lynch is not as uncommon as stated. I originally think Shady's willingness to do his research on other games is a townie trait, and I did not put my pressure on him because of this. However, with this new information, I believe Shady lied. TL:DR I am slightly inclined to believe he is Scum. Golbat After re-reading Golbat's filter, my stance on Golbat is townie remain unchanged. Here is my defence for him. Golbat reminds me of my first game. I basically was wishy-washy because I believe we shouldn't jump to conclusions and town is going after me because of that. I spent most of my entire day 1 defending myself. Someone mentioned Golbat spent most of his time explaining why he is town. I say this is a normal newbie townie reaction when people is after you. Golbat's pulling out of Mordanis' case is his biggest scum tell. However, follow this logic: Assuming scum Golbat. Why would he pull out? There are 3 more players after Mordanis if I am not wrong. Assuming Mordanis is town, he could have easily gotten a mislynch. Also, if Golbat is red, pulling out means he would not want to associate himself for pushing for a mislynch. Why would he blatantly say that? So that all of you would jump on him? Town sided Golbat would fit in this behaviour. However I maintain my position that our focus is to lynch a scum, nothing else. However, reading through this thread I found quite a few players doing it, and obviously they all can't be scum. I suggest focus on scum hunting with what information we have now, instead of thinking what information we could get if we lynch the person TL:DR I am against lynching Golbat. Mordanis His post has improved after the ones that accuse Kei for being not blue. Also, he went so far as to check on other games just to find out if Shady is lying, suggested that he is willing to go through the trouble to scum hunt someone for what he said. There is also scum sided explanation: he could be a scum over-committed to twist every word to get a mislynch. However, I think the later is less plausible. With him being the first one to start the scum hunt game, I am willing to overlook the part where he "cares about who is not blue". TL:DR I am swayed to believe Mordanis is less of a scum, I am not a big fan of lynching him right now As the dead line is approaching, I suggest we narrow down the lynch targets. I believe we need at least 7 votes to lynch. I am strongly against no-lynch. That said, I would like to commit my vote to: ##vote: Shady_Sands based on the reasoning above. Going to answer Alan's post in more detail, but for now responding to the specific claim that I lied about the D1 lynches: the search filter I used was "TL Mafia" in the search box above, which returned about 20 different mafia games. I scrolled through them until I found a clear Day 1, and used those as tallies. That's why my figures are so low--because most of the games I found with that filter were early games with lots of players. If I'm guilty, I'm guilty of making a bad search filter, not intentionally lying. | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 28 2012 13:46 Golbat wrote: I'll probably be able to read the thread before I have to go to work tomorrow morning, but in case I don't get that chance, ##Vote aRyujin This is why I am voting for him: His haiku style makes it easy for him to fill up his posts with a shit load of waffle and some nearly baseless accusations and almost get away with it. I hope in between now and deadline the eye of suspicion takes a long, hard look at him, because his confusing waffle is nothing short of a full-on impediment to real discussion. I would also consider voting for Shady Sands, depending on the consensus of the town for these reasons : His direct swap from "I agree with golbat, let's lynch Mord" after Mord drew such attention to himself to "Let's lynch Golbat and then Mord, because one of them HAS to be scum" after people started questioning me is something that I don't think anybody else agreed with. The way he seemed so concrete about who we should lynch for multiple days is really suspicious. We should be picking lynches on a day by day basis as more discussion takes place, not queue up our votes for several days straight. Right now these two seem to me to be the most scummy. Of course, if someone else decides to act scummy as all get out, i'd be happy to vote for them as well, but at the moment these two seem the most suspicious. Hopefully i'll be able to get back and read/contribute more in the morning, as i'll be at work when the deadline hits and won't be home for three or four hours after that. His rationale for voting aRyujin basically boils down to "aRyujin posts in Haiku--therefore he is a worthless townie--therefore we should lynch him." Simplified, Golbat is saying that we should lynch aRyujin because there would be no loss if aRyujin was gone. Apart from the fact that our poet has switched to normal prose from his prior haikus, Golbat's analysis is so simplistic and vapid that it would make me laugh were it not such a clear indication of scummy play. Now let's look at what Golbat was doing in response to his own accusations: On July 28 2012 05:24 Golbat wrote: Okay, now I'm back. It looks like pretty much everyone else in the thread seems to think I'm scum. Well that's not good, because i'm not. You all seem to think that my incredibly poor play has something to do with me being scum, when that's not the case at all. I'm town. I'm very town, I'm just bad. I Honestly thought all of my posts were helpful when I posted them. I can see now why they aren't. I also think you can do better than lynching me. I propose instead that today we lynch someone who hasn't been a part of the conversation much, as it's entirely possible that the mafia has decided to sit back and let me and Mord go at it while the town analyzes itself to pieces. I feel that in that regard, Keir has been suspiciously quiet so far. Besides defending himself from Mord's suspicions early on, and this post, + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 15:32 Keirathi wrote: @goodkarma: I mostly agree with your assessment of Mordanis. I feel like it would be a really silly play for a mafia to try to pull this early. It *WAS* a suspiciously weak case though, but mostly I feel like it was a townie trying to find something to push rather than a scum trying to start a bandwagon. I'll be keeping my eye on him though, that's for sure. About your suspects: aRyuujin I don't really have much to comment about him. I feel like its too early to start qualifying people as lurkers. It is the middle of the night in US times, so I suspect a lot of people are sleeping. MrMedic In his longest post, he did have some good insight despite how hard the post was to follow. He noted how each point of the Mordanis case against me seemed to be trying to paint me dying in a good light. Would definitely like to hear more from him, hopefully in an easier to follow writing style next time though. Promethelax People have to work and sleep. I've played with Prom before, I have no doubt that he'll be active when he has time. People have to work and sleep, they can't be active 24 hours a day. That being said, Prom has been scum in most (all?) of his previous games, so I'm definitely keeping an eye on him  On July 27 2012 11:46 Keirathi wrote: @Goldbat: At the same time, you can't just give people a free ride for lurking. Like Mordanis pointed out + Show Spoiler + Mordanis wrote: Easiest way for scum to win is to have town all say "Yeah, Lurkers are a bad target, we'll always lynch our best read". Its a pretty common scum strategy to lurk while the active townies FOS all over each other, and eventually kill themselves. It's a balancing act of deciding if people are "lurking with intent" or just townies not posting much. So basically Golbat is saying, Keir is quiet, let's lynch him. Then Golbat says aRyujin is posting Haikus, let's lynch him. Then he shifts to Shady Sands: On July 28 2012 13:46 Golbat wrote: I'll probably be able to read the thread before I have to go to work tomorrow morning, but in case I don't get that chance, ##Vote aRyujin This is why I am voting for him: His haiku style makes it easy for him to fill up his posts with a shit load of waffle and some nearly baseless accusations and almost get away with it. I hope in between now and deadline the eye of suspicion takes a long, hard look at him, because his confusing waffle is nothing short of a full-on impediment to real discussion. I would also consider voting for Shady Sands, depending on the consensus of the town for these reasons : His direct swap from "I agree with golbat, let's lynch Mord" after Mord drew such attention to himself to "Let's lynch Golbat and then Mord, because one of them HAS to be scum" after people started questioning me is something that I don't think anybody else agreed with. The way he seemed so concrete about who we should lynch for multiple days is really suspicious. We should be picking lynches on a day by day basis as more discussion takes place, not queue up our votes for several days straight. Right now these two seem to me to be the most scummy. Of course, if someone else decides to act scummy as all get out, i'd be happy to vote for them as well, but at the moment these two seem the most suspicious. Hopefully i'll be able to get back and read/contribute more in the morning, as i'll be at work when the deadline hits and won't be home for three or four hours after that. Basically his case against me is that I switched from Mord to Golbat when no one else did so, and because I talked about multi-day lynching patterns. I'm going to address the multi-day lynching complaint in a separate post, but calling for suspicion just because someone made that switch from a target to another target alone seems like a call for people to bandwagon, which is generally not optimal town play. Indeed, this is where Golbat seems to show his true colors: look at the below part-- I would also consider voting for Shady Sands, depending on the consensus of the town for these reasons This is really wierd. Basically Golbat is saying he'll vote for someone if the rest of the town bandwagons that person. In a situation where the mafia can and will bandwagon a day 1 lynch, such a position is stupid at best and dangerous/scummy at worst. Why would Golbat even leave himself that out, and state it publicly? This circles back to my point about "loud scum" being a difficult strategy to play, because inevitably a player will make a scumslip like the sentence above if they keep playing loudly. In that regard I think Mordanis made the right strategic choice way back in the beginning (even if on a tactical level his reasoning was completely off-kilter and wasted the town's time.) I'd like to close my case against Golbat with the following quote from Golbat: Just because you aren't making cases doesn't mean you still can't contribute. You could read over someone's filter and point out inconsistencies, or share a read you have on someone, or do ANYTHING. Not having a complete case to share yet isn't an excuse to not contribute at all. If nobody does any talking, how are we going to get anything done? That's exactly true--Golbat hasn't pointed out a single inconsistency or read as a justification for any of his lynches (either aRyujin, me, or Mordanis--remember that Golbat simply said "what are we waiting for let's just lynch Mordanis already"), yet he seems to acknowledge that this is the right way to play town. Something's not right here. ##Unvote Mordanis ##FoS Golbat I will likely vote Golbat, barring something huge coming up, before the 17:00 EDT deadline. | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 28 2012 21:30 Promethelax wrote: ah, no. You're wrong there. We're getting close to deadline for me (because I'll be asleep for a while) and no one has shown me anything that makes me think anyone is scummier than you or that you are town and therefore less scummy than someone else. I didn't place my vote early because I don't like to vote really early. I Placed my vote when the thread had time to do its thing and make other cases or defenses, I like to be informed before I make my decisions. I would have voted for you even without your most recent post. I just thought I would mention it since I had a chase against you and more post was, once again, scummy. tl;dr I was going to vote you unless 1) you had posted a convincing defense of yourself or 2)someone had made a case that made me think someone was scummier than you. Neither of those things happened while I was at work. I voted for you. Ah, ok. I just found it a little wierd that you wouldn't mention at all the huge debate surrounding golbat or mordanis, instead only talking about aRyujin's haikus and my one-liner post. I'm going to write a defense post now--hope it addresses your concerns (and the concerns of anyone else who shares your line of thinking.) | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 28 2012 14:28 Obvious.660 wrote: Shady Sands' is 100% convinced Mordanis is scum. And is willing to waiting 2 days to lynch him. This is bad play. If we identify scum, we kill them. No crazy circular logic of if x person dies then we have more information y person. Just no. Scum can scheme, they are aware of eachother. Town cannot, except in the case of Masons. Shady Sands is my current #1 scum read. #FOS: Shady Sands Obvious, by the time I switched my vote off Mordanis to doing a 2 day wait on his lynch, I was no longer 100% convinced he was scum. I wrote that since he was playing "loud" (actively posting relatively strong analysis), if he was scum, he would quickly out himself in two or three days anyhow, so there was no need to rush a lynch. | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 29 2012 00:14 Ange777 wrote: Valid points but I fear that we won't get an answer from Golbat before deadline. In general, activity in this game is aweful. Zorkmid and MrMedic have disappeared as well. No worries, I think a lynch on Golbat, like you said, will tell us a lot about the remaining players here, even if he is silent. | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
Onto the second point, which is something quite a few players are basing their votes on: + Show Spoiler [Alan133's analysis] + On July 28 2012 20:42 alan133 wrote: Goodkarma I disagree that we should focus on lynching lurkers at this point of time. We have better lynch targets out there, so I suggest we focus on them. The problem with lynching lurkers day 1 is that it is much harder to make the correct call this early on. Later into the game, townies get more information so we can make a better decision when it comes to low content poster. Also, when it comes to lurking, there are two types of them: 1) Those that post very little, and 2) those that post a lot of junk post. I suggest we drop the lynch lurker discussion and go on scumhunting. It is fine if you want to call out a lurker but with better evidence other than "he lurks". The first successful lynch we got in my last game was a lurker, and despite having very little post count they are all really scummy. The reason you voted aRyuujin also fits in a few other players, MrMedic, Keirathi and Zorkmid to name a few. You addressed one more point why you intend to lynch him instead of the others:
I don't think you should pursue a aRyuujin lynch as of now, a few players have argue that they are not in favor of a lurker lynch (That includes me). I skimmed through his post and the scummy thing I got off him is his poems, which he stopped doing. Current Situation That said, I am feeling very uncomfortable with how the game is progressing. Compare to my first game, the activity level is really poor, and the "active posts" were mostly about Mordanis, Golbat and Shady, based on what has been brought up since 24 hours ago. Also, I did not count, but the impression I got was that is set to be lynched. I feel discouraged because I read Golbat is the least scummy one, of all 3. So I did a re-read on all their filters. Shady I went through Shady's post. Skimming through his filter reminded me of this eerie feeling when I read about his policies and advices, which a few other players have highlighted, so I am not going to repeat after them. There are also one other post in his filter that I am not a big fan of: Like I said, our focus is to lynch a scum, not what happens if player x flips scum. This is the kind of post that got Scum killed in my first game. However, the severity aren't as bad as the one since it is not a list of "what if we kill this player". Also, although my last game has a successful day 1 lynch, I thought Shady just missed it since there are so many games out there. However, Mordanis' did a list of day 1 lynch and from there I saw day 1 scum lynch is not as uncommon as stated. I originally think Shady's willingness to do his research on other games is a townie trait, and I did not put my pressure on him because of this. However, with this new information, I believe Shady lied. TL:DR I am slightly inclined to believe he is Scum. Golbat After re-reading Golbat's filter, my stance on Golbat is townie remain unchanged. Here is my defence for him. Golbat reminds me of my first game. I basically was wishy-washy because I believe we shouldn't jump to conclusions and town is going after me because of that. I spent most of my entire day 1 defending myself. Someone mentioned Golbat spent most of his time explaining why he is town. I say this is a normal newbie townie reaction when people is after you. Golbat's pulling out of Mordanis' case is his biggest scum tell. However, follow this logic: Assuming scum Golbat. Why would he pull out? There are 3 more players after Mordanis if I am not wrong. Assuming Mordanis is town, he could have easily gotten a mislynch. Also, if Golbat is red, pulling out means he would not want to associate himself for pushing for a mislynch. Why would he blatantly say that? So that all of you would jump on him? Town sided Golbat would fit in this behaviour. However I maintain my position that our focus is to lynch a scum, nothing else. However, reading through this thread I found quite a few players doing it, and obviously they all can't be scum. I suggest focus on scum hunting with what information we have now, instead of thinking what information we could get if we lynch the person TL:DR I am against lynching Golbat. Mordanis His post has improved after the ones that accuse Kei for being not blue. Also, he went so far as to check on other games just to find out if Shady is lying, suggested that he is willing to go through the trouble to scum hunt someone for what he said. There is also scum sided explanation: he could be a scum over-committed to twist every word to get a mislynch. However, I think the later is less plausible. With him being the first one to start the scum hunt game, I am willing to overlook the part where he "cares about who is not blue". TL:DR I am swayed to believe Mordanis is less of a scum, I am not a big fan of lynching him right now As the dead line is approaching, I suggest we narrow down the lynch targets. I believe we need at least 7 votes to lynch. I am strongly against no-lynch. That said, I would like to commit my vote to: ##vote: Shady_Sands based on the reasoning above. + Show Spoiler [Promethelax's analysis] + On July 27 2012 21:49 Promethelax wrote: Alright, I'll look into their filters and see if anything is popping there. What I found, and still find weird about shady is this: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 08:38 Shady Sands wrote: I'm not sure how Keir telling RB not to use their powers equals Keir roleclaiming as RB. Of course Day 1 roleclaiming is suspicious but this post doesn't fit the bill. But if a clear consensus emerges that he's suspicious, I'd volunteer myself to watch his posting behavior. That said, I do think Day 1 scumhunting could work--but only after everyone (or nearly everyone) has posted. I'm going to go down the list of posters now and do a quick tally. Ange777 - No posts yet Keirathi - Six posts Promethelax - More than 10 posts alan133 - 1 "GLHF" post Mordanis - Three posts Obvious.660 - 2 posts MrMedic - 1 post, edited aRyuujin - 2 posts, both haiku DarthPunk - No posts yet goodkarma - No posts yet Golbat - No posts yet Shady Sands - 2 posts so far Zorkmid - 5 posts Players in order of activity: Promethelax Keirathi Zorkmid Mordanis Obvious.660 aRyuujin Shady Sands alan133 MrMedic -- Lurkers -- Ange777 Darthpunk goodkarma Golbat Once the remaining few lurkers have posted, then we can start scumhunting. The next task is to read through past mafia games and find those with successful Day 1 scumhunts--and see what common lessons can be drawn from them. I'm going to compile a list of those right now. Where he puts a lot of bull shit into the thread and nothing real. He literally used post counts to increase the size of his filter. the other thing in here I want to focus on is his lets wait attitude. for example: from the above post and others He also says that both of these things push town away from hunting for scum, attempting to prevent scum hunting is a huge scum trait. On top of this he misrepresents the facts in newbie 21 (I think) Hopeless1der was lynched d1 as scum so scum hunting has shown to be effective recently. He also replys to my advice by saying scum will blue snipe, they will kill players who won't vote for the right mislynch or who are tunneling scum. There are a million reasons for scum to shoot a bad town player so his first point is wrong and his second point again pushes us away from scum hunting since he insists that vigi shots are our most powerful tool. No they aren't. We are the most powerful town asset and scum hunting is the most powerful town tool. His next post tells us to wait for more people to post until we make cases and the one after that is a case... Sands tells us that we should still hold off even though this guy is the best lynch target. He also tells us that he will likely flip green based on (I assume) the statistics which seems, to me, to be a way to distance himself from a Mord town flip. What originally felt scummy to me in Sands' filter was this post where he says: Re-read that. Do yourself a favour and beat your face against a hard surface. He think that Mord will flip green unless he replys in the way that he (Sands) expects him to in which case he is red...alrighty than. I also hate this post: the bolded part at the end is essentially saying that we should lynch Golbat and if he is green lynch Mord. That seems to be setting us up for two mislynches and, if Sands ever flips red these two are pretty much confirmed town. So based on Sands' play I think that he is scum. He has earned my FoS and as of this moment he would be my vote if nothing changed between now and lynch. I'll be keeping my eye on him because, as he said, just replace Mord with Sands and you see the truth of the statement. He has to keep going and, as Keir well knows, loud scum are easy to find. Most of these complaints center on the following statement from me: I'd go with Golbat right now as I think lynching him does one of two things: 1) He flips red, in which case we've gotten a D1 red lynch which puts us in the 75% win range 2) He flips green or blue, in which case Mordanis will be under quite a bit of pressure The complaint is that this a bad way to actually win as town, and makes me seem scummy by essentially calling for Golbat to be pitched to the fire even if he's innocent. That's taking my quote out of context: I never stated that we should lynch Golbat regardless of whether he is scum or not, I said that lynching Golbat is our best hope of uncovering scum in the town. First, because, as I've stated before, Golbat is the player which I think is most likely to be scum based on his D1 posts and behavior, and second, because Mordanis is a very active player, which means that if Golbat flips blue/green Mordanis will need to make a lot of explanatory posting under quite a bit of pressure (since he was the first one to FoS Golbat). Either way, Golbat brings a lot of clarity to the town. [b]I never said that we should auto-lynch Mordanis if Golbat flips green/blue--rather that since it will be easy for town to put pressure on Mordanis if Golbat flips non-scum, and that Mordanis is an active poster, then it will be easy to make him crack if he is scum. Hope that clears things up for everyone. Sorry for dragging town in another direction, and for posting slowly--that will not be the case this weekend. I'll be checking in on the thread actively over today, and if nothing else happens I'll post my vote at about 15:00 EDT. It will likely be to Golbat. | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 29 2012 02:31 Ange777 wrote: @Shady: So if we are not supposed to auto-lynch Mordanis if Golbat flips green/blue, how are we to interpret your following statement? That if Mordanis flips red, Golbat is green/blue, and if Mordanis flips green/blue, Golbat is red. | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 29 2012 03:07 Ange777 wrote: Do you mind elaborating how you came up with this conclusion??? This was part of a discussion on whether or not to lynch Mordanis and whether or not to lynch Golbat. From my POV, it looked unlikely that scum would be bussing their own members on Day 1, given that Day 1 lynch rates tended to mislynches anyhow. Therefore, the first half of the statement--that if Mord flips red, Golbat (his main accuser) should be green/blue. I did not state this in the thread because I thought this was apparent. The second half of the statement--that if Mord flips green/blue, Golbat should be red--is because Golbat was, as Mord noted, the first person to start hinting at lynching Mord (before other people had even made up their minds about it) and also made that extremely suspicious "end all discussion, vote Mord" post. This smelled to me like either extremely bad town play (which I, as a general rule, try not to believe in--I think that most players will behave fairly intelligently) or a clear attempt by a red to push for a mislynch. So if Mord was innocent, then the likeliest red would be Golbat. Then, after writing that, I started reading through Golbat's posts themselves, and they suggested an added layer of guilt--especially his flip-flopping and multiple backtracking to defend himself. Then Golbat tried defending himself some more, and looked even more scummy, etc. etc. | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
##Vote Golbat | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 29 2012 03:45 Ange777 wrote: Did it ever occur to you that both might be mislead townies? You are already crossing out a lot of possibilities by saying that either of them has to be scum. And by commiting yourself to this as a fact, how can you say that we are not supposed to auto lynch the other one if the first one flips town? I think you're getting a little confused here--I never said that either have to be scum. I said that if Mord is lynched and comes up as innocent, Golbat is likely scum. If Mord is lynched and comes up as guilty, then Golbat is likely to be innocent. However, I did not mean that if Golbat is innocent, Mord comes up as scum, or if Golbat is scum, Mord comes up as innocent. That is because Mord didn't seem like he was railroading Golbat, while Golbat did look like he was railroading Mord pretty hard. That being said, though, if Golbat flips blue/green, the pressure will be on Mord to explain himself. The pressure will also be on me as well, since I've argued against Golbat fairly heavily (just as heavily as Mord, if not more). I'm glad about that, since pressure keeps activity up, and keeps the scumhunt moving forward. | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 29 2012 04:52 DarthPunk wrote: could we get a vote count please <3 I think right now, on Golbat we have: Ange777, aRyujin, Keirathi, Zorkmid, Goodkarma, me, and Mordanis. | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 29 2012 05:12 Shady Sands wrote: I think right now, on Golbat we have: Ange777, aRyujin, Keirathi, Zorkmid, Goodkarma, me, and Mordanis. EBWOP: That is in order of when people posted their votes. | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 29 2012 05:24 Ange777 wrote: Okay, this is a totally different thing than what I understood in the first place. Apologies! I am still unsure about you though and would like to hear your opinion on goodkarma. Here's my read on GK: I'm not really sure why he would zero in on aRyuujin like that. Basically GK's rationale for lynching people is: Filter people who "appear active" --> Find those who are active but who are light on the content --> Start analyzing and prepping for lynch. So he filtered 3 people out who appear active: aRyu MrMedic Promethelax Then he says hmmm aRyu is contributing the least... and then seems to forget about the other two and keep digging on aRyu. Now aRyu obviously doesn't do town any favors by making his defense consist of haikus, but the shift by GK to just focusing on aRyu was a little off to me. His shift Golbat was well-timed and well-explained, so nothing can be really inferred from that. I'm not suspicious of GK right now, but I am a little puzzled by why he would drop MrMedic and Promethelax so quickly from his list of suspicious inactives, given that MrMedic hasn't voted and Promethelax seems to space his posts 14 hours apart and ignored the giant debate on Mordanis/Golbat entirely. | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
For now, here are the most critical posts that led to Golbat's lynch: + Show Spoiler [Mord's initial post] + On July 27 2012 15:36 Mordanis wrote: Golbat: The entire time so far he seems to have been itching to get on my bandwagon. His first post with more than 1 line says: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 09:15 Golbat wrote: Howdy guys! This will be my first game of mafia ever that wasn't an sc2 UMS, and those I could never quite get the hang of (mostly due to nobody else having a clue what was going on either). Hopefully, I'll be able to make more sense of the game in a format like this. As far as the game goes, Mordanis' post about Keir's post where he was "virtually claiming town RB" seems to be a pretty scummy thing to do. It didn't seem to me to be a secret claim of any sort, just a rules clarification. Even if it was a super-secret claim that he could use later, I wouldn't believe him if that was the only evidence he had. From what I've read elsewhere, that type of posting is classic scum behavior. Look like you're helping the town and trying to hunt scum, when in reality you're just blowing a townie's mistakes clear out of proportion to sow confusion and doubt. Not everyone has posted, so I don't yet want to commit to a vote, but I've got my eye on you Mordanis. First he makes an excuse for potential scumslips (First time in a non UMS, take it easy on me), and then proceeds to quietly second the position of DarthPunk. He seems to be trying to avoid attention while being able to make excuses later on, with the added bonus of being able to hop onto a bandwagon on me without much thought from other players. His second post + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 11:31 Golbat wrote: I think that lynching a lurker day one is only a good idea if we have no reads on people who might be scum. As far as that goes for me, I already have an idea of who might be scum, so I won't get behind lynching a lurker today. Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic). On July 27 2012 13:36 Golbat wrote: I mean honestly, it's gone on long enough. ##Vote Mordanis If you're red, try to be less obvious next time. If you're green, try to be less scummy next time. I certainly hope you're not a blue. Awesome, he jumps on the bandwagon in 2nd/3rd position, early enough that he seems to be "leading", but late enough that he can avoid later suspicion by saying "Shady was in front of me!". He even tries to end the discussion by agreeing that the case on me is open and shut. Vague Pro-town comments + early excuse + bandwagon-ing + anti-discussion = quadruple scummy. So for right now at least: ##Vote: Golbat + Show Spoiler [nonsense about Keir] + I'm really getting bored with the stuff about this. Read my second post about his "claim" + Show Spoiler [spoilered for you convenience] + On July 27 2012 12:44 Mordanis wrote: Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going. I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide:In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum. Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide: Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler + way too much!!!! I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss. TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red. + Show Spoiler [Keir's read on Golbat] + On July 28 2012 16:52 Keirathi wrote: Golbat (as an aside, am I the only person that has trouble typing Golbat instead of Goldbat?) :[
Two other people that I am minorly interested in: goodkarma I find repeatedly pushing to have lurkers lynched is an anti-town trait. Our goal is to lynch scum. You claim it's impossible to make solid reads on day 1, but without people making reads, our ability to get successful lynches later in the game diminishes. Repeatedly trying to sheep us back onto lurkers and away from active cases is suspicious. Mordanis While I don't find his initial case against me particularly suspicious (other than the fact that it was pure WIFOM) because it could reasonably have been made by either town or mafia, he hasn't full escaped my notice. He repeatedly tried to assert that I wasn't blue. What good is that information to town, and why did he feel the need to point it out? Town never has a reason to "blue hunt", but scum always does. I really feel like Golbat is our best chance of flipping scum at the moment, so: ##Vote Golbat + Show Spoiler [My reads on Golbat] + [QUOTE]On July 28 2012 21:33 Shady Sands wrote: I am sticking with my eye on Golbat. [QUOTE]On July 28 2012 13:46 Golbat wrote: I'll probably be able to read the thread before I have to go to work tomorrow morning, but in case I don't get that chance, ##Vote aRyujin This is why I am voting for him: His haiku style makes it easy for him to fill up his posts with a shit load of waffle and some nearly baseless accusations and almost get away with it. I hope in between now and deadline the eye of suspicion takes a long, hard look at him, because his confusing waffle is nothing short of a full-on impediment to real discussion. I would also consider voting for Shady Sands, depending on the consensus of the town for these reasons : His direct swap from "I agree with golbat, let's lynch Mord" after Mord drew such attention to himself to "Let's lynch Golbat and then Mord, because one of them HAS to be scum" after people started questioning me is something that I don't think anybody else agreed with. The way he seemed so concrete about who we should lynch for multiple days is really suspicious. We should be picking lynches on a day by day basis as more discussion takes place, not queue up our votes for several days straight. Right now these two seem to me to be the most scummy. Of course, if someone else decides to act scummy as all get out, i'd be happy to vote for them as well, but at the moment these two seem the most suspicious. Hopefully i'll be able to get back and read/contribute more in the morning, as i'll be at work when the deadline hits and won't be home for three or four hours after that. His rationale for voting aRyujin basically boils down to "aRyujin posts in Haiku--therefore he is a worthless townie--therefore we should lynch him." Simplified, Golbat is saying that we should lynch aRyujin because there would be no loss if aRyujin was gone. Apart from the fact that our poet has switched to normal prose from his prior haikus, Golbat's analysis is so simplistic and vapid that it would make me laugh were it not such a clear indication of scummy play. Now let's look at what Golbat was doing in response to his own accusations: [QUOTE]On July 28 2012 05:24 Golbat wrote: Okay, now I'm back. It looks like pretty much everyone else in the thread seems to think I'm scum. Well that's not good, because i'm not. You all seem to think that my incredibly poor play has something to do with me being scum, when that's not the case at all. I'm town. I'm very town, I'm just bad. I Honestly thought all of my posts were helpful when I posted them. I can see now why they aren't. I also think you can do better than lynching me. I propose instead that today we lynch someone who hasn't been a part of the conversation much, as it's entirely possible that the mafia has decided to sit back and let me and Mord go at it while the town analyzes itself to pieces. I feel that in that regard, Keir has been suspiciously quiet so far. Besides defending himself from Mord's suspicions early on, and this post, + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 15:32 Keirathi wrote: @goodkarma: I mostly agree with your assessment of Mordanis. I feel like it would be a really silly play for a mafia to try to pull this early. It *WAS* a suspiciously weak case though, but mostly I feel like it was a townie trying to find something to push rather than a scum trying to start a bandwagon. I'll be keeping my eye on him though, that's for sure. About your suspects: aRyuujin I don't really have much to comment about him. I feel like its too early to start qualifying people as lurkers. It is the middle of the night in US times, so I suspect a lot of people are sleeping. MrMedic In his longest post, he did have some good insight despite how hard the post was to follow. He noted how each point of the Mordanis case against me seemed to be trying to paint me dying in a good light. Would definitely like to hear more from him, hopefully in an easier to follow writing style next time though. Promethelax People have to work and sleep. I've played with Prom before, I have no doubt that he'll be active when he has time. People have to work and sleep, they can't be active 24 hours a day. That being said, Prom has been scum in most (all?) of his previous games, so I'm definitely keeping an eye on him On July 27 2012 11:46 Keirathi wrote: @Goldbat: At the same time, you can't just give people a free ride for lurking. Like Mordanis pointed out + Show Spoiler + Mordanis wrote: Easiest way for scum to win is to have town all say "Yeah, Lurkers are a bad target, we'll always lynch our best read". Its a pretty common scum strategy to lurk while the active townies FOS all over each other, and eventually kill themselves. It's a balancing act of deciding if people are "lurking with intent" or just townies not posting much. So basically Golbat is saying, Keir is quiet, let's lynch him. Then Golbat says aRyujin is posting Haikus, let's lynch him. Then he shifts to Shady Sands: [QUOTE]On July 28 2012 13:46 Golbat wrote: I'll probably be able to read the thread before I have to go to work tomorrow morning, but in case I don't get that chance, ##Vote aRyujin This is why I am voting for him: His haiku style makes it easy for him to fill up his posts with a shit load of waffle and some nearly baseless accusations and almost get away with it. I hope in between now and deadline the eye of suspicion takes a long, hard look at him, because his confusing waffle is nothing short of a full-on impediment to real discussion. I would also consider voting for Shady Sands, depending on the consensus of the town for these reasons : His direct swap from "I agree with golbat, let's lynch Mord" after Mord drew such attention to himself to "Let's lynch Golbat and then Mord, because one of them HAS to be scum" after people started questioning me is something that I don't think anybody else agreed with. The way he seemed so concrete about who we should lynch for multiple days is really suspicious. We should be picking lynches on a day by day basis as more discussion takes place, not queue up our votes for several days straight. Right now these two seem to me to be the most scummy. Of course, if someone else decides to act scummy as all get out, i'd be happy to vote for them as well, but at the moment these two seem the most suspicious. Hopefully i'll be able to get back and read/contribute more in the morning, as i'll be at work when the deadline hits and won't be home for three or four hours after that. Basically his case against me is that I switched from Mord to Golbat when no one else did so, and because I talked about multi-day lynching patterns. I'm going to address the multi-day lynching complaint in a separate post, but calling for suspicion just because someone made that switch from a target to another target alone seems like a call for people to bandwagon, which is generally not optimal town play. Indeed, this is where Golbat seems to show his true colors: look at the below part-- [quote]I would also consider voting for Shady Sands, depending on the consensus of the town for these reasons[/quote] This is really wierd. Basically Golbat is saying he'll vote for someone if the rest of the town bandwagons that person. In a situation where the mafia can and will bandwagon a day 1 lynch, such a position is stupid at best and dangerous/scummy at worst. Why would Golbat even leave himself that out, and state it publicly? This circles back to my point about "loud scum" being a difficult strategy to play, because inevitably a player will make a scumslip like the sentence above if they keep playing loudly. In that regard I think Mordanis made the right strategic choice way back in the beginning (even if on a tactical level his reasoning was completely off-kilter and wasted the town's time.) I'd like to close my case against Golbat with the following quote from Golbat: [quote]Just because you aren't making cases doesn't mean you still can't contribute. You could read over someone's filter and point out inconsistencies, or share a read you have on someone, or do ANYTHING. Not having a complete case to share yet isn't an excuse to not contribute at all. If nobody does any talking, how are we going to get anything done?[/quote] That's exactly true--Golbat hasn't pointed out a single inconsistency or read as a justification for any of his lynches (either aRyujin, me, or Mordanis--remember that Golbat simply said "what are we waiting for let's just lynch Mordanis already"), yet he seems to acknowledge that this is the right way to play town. Something's not right here. ##Unvote Mordanis ##FoS Golbat I will likely vote Golbat, barring something huge coming up, before the 17:00 EDT deadline.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On July 27 2012 20:33 Shady Sands wrote: [QUOTE]On July 27 2012 15:36 Mordanis wrote: ... *Sigh* I'll begin by saying this: If the people jumping on my bandwagon 1/6th of the way through the first day are town, they are really doing a good job of muddling up the conversation. Look through the thread so far, and see that the only discussion before I posted my case was policy, and that very lenient. There was a lot of "Oop, don't want to attract attention, guess I'll say that we shouldn't policy lynch any lurkers". I admit that I rushed my two main posts, and they may have been suboptimal, but compare that to the entire rest of the populace. We've managed 2 cases so far, and I was one of them. The other is a direct response to mine. I really don't understand why the people who are tunnelling me are doing so: attacking the only person who has posted anything of substance (that isn't within the same bandwagon as you) seems anti-discussion. So while I certainly made a mistake in talking too much about Keir and potential blue roles, the biggest reason that I seem to be "in danger" is that I've been willing to say what I believe. Regardless, I see the bandwagon as being very interesting. There are 3 people who have had an overwhelming share in the activity against me. DarthPunk: He seems to have a hard time with my line of thought. I apologize, my last game ended with me and another player (Release <3) in a duel that had a lot secrecy and enigmatic reasoning. I came to this game expecting the same. If you take people at the face value of their words (In which case, I'm town so don't lynch me :D), then you tend to miss a lot of good reads. The way to catch scum is not to find the first invalid argument, but rather to find the players who are playing in an anti-town way. This includes delaying to reduce the amount of analysis, making the atmosphere bad for town, and muddling with plans. By posting my case on the first thing that I saw, I went in the direction of an atmosphere that welcomes content posting, started the scumhunt before it would have started had I not posted, and laid a fairly straightforward path for the town without explicitly discussing policy. We lynch the player with the scummiest play. So while my read may not have been perfect, my post should have helped town. On the other hand, creating a mass bandwagon on the one person who has posted anything of substance (besides the counter substance) seems to accomplish the goals of scum. Still, he seems more to have an issue following my logic than to be following a plan, as well as being the first to place suspicion on me. I give him a solid "mEh" on the scum-scale Shady: The most brazen of my accusers. Doesn't seem to be following the fine points of the game very closely. Still doesn't appear to get that the day cycle is 48 hours and not 12. Has a great time posting out perceived errors in my logic and then votes for me on said perceptions, without seeming to notice that one of his main points + Show Spoiler + if it were not for the fact that Mordanis is the only one stirring up controversy about Keir. Golbat: The entire time so far he seems to have been itching to get on my bandwagon. His first post with more than 1 line says: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 09:15 Golbat wrote: Howdy guys! This will be my first game of mafia ever that wasn't an sc2 UMS, and those I could never quite get the hang of (mostly due to nobody else having a clue what was going on either). Hopefully, I'll be able to make more sense of the game in a format like this. As far as the game goes, Mordanis' post about Keir's post where he was "virtually claiming town RB" seems to be a pretty scummy thing to do. It didn't seem to me to be a secret claim of any sort, just a rules clarification. Even if it was a super-secret claim that he could use later, I wouldn't believe him if that was the only evidence he had. From what I've read elsewhere, that type of posting is classic scum behavior. Look like you're helping the town and trying to hunt scum, when in reality you're just blowing a townie's mistakes clear out of proportion to sow confusion and doubt. Not everyone has posted, so I don't yet want to commit to a vote, but I've got my eye on you Mordanis. First he makes an excuse for potential scumslips (First time in a non UMS, take it easy on me), and then proceeds to quietly second the position of DarthPunk. He seems to be trying to avoid attention while being able to make excuses later on, with the added bonus of being able to hop onto a bandwagon on me without much thought from other players. His second post + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 11:31 Golbat wrote: I think that lynching a lurker day one is only a good idea if we have no reads on people who might be scum. As far as that goes for me, I already have an idea of who might be scum, so I won't get behind lynching a lurker today. Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic). On July 27 2012 13:36 Golbat wrote: I mean honestly, it's gone on long enough. ##Vote Mordanis If you're red, try to be less obvious next time. If you're green, try to be less scummy next time. I certainly hope you're not a blue. Awesome, he jumps on the bandwagon in 2nd/3rd position, early enough that he seems to be "leading", but late enough that he can avoid later suspicion by saying "Shady was in front of me!". He even tries to end the discussion by agreeing that the case on me is open and shut. Vague Pro-town comments + early excuse + bandwagon-ing + anti-discussion = quadruple scummy. So for right now at least: ##Vote: Golbat + Show Spoiler [nonsense about Keir] + I'm really getting bored with the stuff about this. Read my second post about his "claim" + Show Spoiler [spoilered for you convenience] + On July 27 2012 12:44 Mordanis wrote: Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going. I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide:In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum. Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide: Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler + way too much!!!! I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss. TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red. I think this is pretty important to parse through, because it makes me want to refrain from lynching Mordanis until day 2 or 3. I'm going to state that I share Mordanis' and Keir's concerns that Golbat may be scum. This is especially true if Mordanis flips green or blue--then Golbat is very clearly red, and vice versa. That being said, however, I'm still pretty suspicious of Mordanis' desire to start scumhunting an hour and a half into the game, when only half of the players had even posted. This was exacerbated by the fact that his case against Keir was extremely poor, almost intentionally so--as if Mordanis wanted more heat than light to be shed on the situation. One of the main things I'd like to point out here is that scum do not necessarily have to play quietly. It's easier for the scum to play that way, but playing loudly is also a valid scum tactic for sowing discord and division within the town--which is what I thought Mord's post was trying to do. Now that the Keir case is closed, however, and Mord+Keir have both identified Golbat's behavior as pretty odd in and of itself, then I think it would be worthwhile to take a look at Golbat. (I'm still a suspicious of Mord, but mainly because his behavior has created so much uncertainty as to what he really could be--and Golbat can clear up a lot of that.) Besides being the first one to "formally" vote for Mordanis, Golbat was also the first one to accuse Mord of faulty analysis. Granted, Golbat's claims were valid--but his more recent posts have made me pretty suspicious. First, let's ignore the list for a bit--we'll circle back to it, but one general thing to note about Golbat's posting: he seems to spend more time trying to make himself look like a townie than trying to figure out who is scum. This is the kicker that shifted my focus from Mord to him. Look at this train of posts below: + Show Spoiler [Golbat's posts since the "…] + On July 27 2012 16:21 Golbat wrote: That's not what I said. I said that you didn't call him out at all, not that you didn't vote for him. I wouldn't expect you to vote for someone just because they voted for you. But saying "hey bro, cool your jets" at least would have been something. Until page 12 I'm pretty sure you didn't even respond to his accusations, but I might have missed a post. What Mord did was go "Oh so you're gonna vote for me? WELL I'M GONNA VOTE FOR YOU, TAKE THAT! Completely different. And then this post: On July 27 2012 16:49 Golbat wrote: My apologies. I completely forgot about those two posts. Maybe i'm being too hasty with my accusing Mord of being scum from one bad read early in the game. It just seems really fishy that he stuck with it for so long. For the time being mord, I'm not convinced you're not scum, but i'm being convinced less and less that you are the more I think about it. So for the time being, ##unvote I just really want to win my first game, and I want to do it while playing well, which is what got me excited to get a slam-dunk mafia kill on day one. I know for a fact that i'm not scum, and that's all I really know at this point. Right now, besides Mord, I think that our best bet is to see who isn't contributing anything to the discusssion and then get rid of them. I admit that all of my reads so far could be wrong 100%. However, i don't think posting my day1 reads about all of the people is the same thing as making a town list, because I didn't even give an opinion on half of the people. I could also do without your "oh look at how good I am, you guys are bad" attitude. This is a newbie game, and calling people bad accomplishes nothing except potentially driving people away. P.S. I know I said "i'm not one to throw votes around yadda yadda yadda, but + Show Spoiler + That was me trying to be all internet tough And this: On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote: The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read. I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is ##FoS Mordanis It's not the flat-out vote that it was before, but I still don't trust you. I've heard several times to trust my reads, and so this is my position. We'll see what happens between now and lynch time. + Show Spoiler + but for real now, I need to step away from the thread for a few hours And this: On July 27 2012 18:44 Golbat wrote: I can understand why you would read my actions so far in the game as scum, but they're honestly just the actions of a bad player who thought he had a dead on scum read and was most likely very, very wrong. From now on i'll be more careful with who I vote for, because while I DID indeed redact my vote, I really really dislike when that happens on the whole. I got a little carried away and luckily it happened this early on and not in a situation where I might have cause a loss for town. Basically, I'm NOT scum, and anything scummy I have said or done so far can be explained by my inexperience. After reading Prom's post (especially the bit regarding self-imposed posting limits), I feel like it's time for me to take a break, especially after spewing so much bullshit and bad play all over the thread. See you in about 6-12 hours. As soon as people start pressuring him, Golbat says that he's not scum in 4 different ways. He emphasizes his newbieness, he says he's just eager to win, then he self-consciously makes a post to make himself not seem like a flip-flopper. Then, when he finally realizes he's digging himself into a hole, he decides to pull the Ostrich maneuver and stick his head into said hole for 6-12 hours. Undoubtedly, if he is red, he is now sending a clear signal to his buddies to bail him out and hopefully shift the discussion to someone else by the time he is out of said hole. Next post will be about Golbat's "list post".[/QUOTE] These are the main posts that led to Golbat's lynch. Another thing to note: Zorkmid and Obvious both ended up shifting to Golbat with minimal analysis at all. I'd say Zork looks the quietest between the two, but Obvious also strikes me as a little odd too, since he popped into the thread 10 minutes after Golbat's lynch without commenting once in the prior six hours, even though he was trying to get me lynched and people were busy bandwagoning Golbat. Normally, I'd expect someone who was trying to aim for a lynch on someone to at least argue their case before the lynch when the town was heading in the opposite direction. I have a few hunches on where we should go next, but I'd like everyone to read through the above posts first. | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 29 2012 13:19 Obvious.660 wrote: In regards to my activity, should be able to pick it up by Monday if I haven't been decimated. Going for quality over quantity til the wedding stuff (not my wedding) is finished. (double spacing to keep things grouped) Weird, why didn't he mention he had a wedding to attend in any of his earlier posts in the thread? This seems like a pretty strange after-the-fact excuse for any strange patterns of activity. One thing that is important for everyone in town to start watching for now is activity patterns and posting patterns. Scum will tend to post with an identifiable ringleader and others following in their footsteps... and they will often all make excuses about IRL commitments to assuage any doubts about odd patterns in their collective posting histories. So here's what I'm putting together from all of this: Shady Sands' play is rather deliberately confusing and time wasting: 1) Bringing in statistics without identifying exactly how they were obtained, ergo they were not easily identifiable as a lie >>>>Lots of time is wasted on people focusing on the stats, trying to verify them, instead of spending time looking at what is more readily confirmed: anything in the thread. 2) Trying to understand what he meant by what flips reveal about the surviving town members, before any other deaths occured >>>>This will end up being a bunch of circular logic on Day 1 given that no other information is known to plain old town members. Delays relevant conversation away from today's discussion and focuses on tomorrows. 3) Being willing to let someone who he considers definitely scum survive the night >>>>No. We always kill scum, potentially removing scum power roles in the process. 4) While in the process of writing this, Shady has claimed that I voted for Golbat. >>>>This is wrong, as my vote was on Shady. More misdirection/confusion. 1) Again, sorry for bringing in statistics without sourcing them properly, but that's at least something substantive to debate on 2 and 3) The discussion was on whether to lynch Mordanis or Golbat. We lynched Golbat because he looked the scummiest. The added light Golbat could share on Mordanis was just a bonus, and the discussion never said that it was anything except that. 4) That was an honest mistake--thought Obvious switched to Golbat by the end. Even so, though, my original point still holds: Why would he jump into the thread right after Golbat got lynched, but not before, even though he voted against the Golbat lynching? I would imagine that he'd be interested in persuading other people of the merits of your vote, but he didn't do so. That seems pretty scummy/strange to me. | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 30 2012 02:29 alan133 wrote: I just got back. I was called out right after breakfast and did have any internet access until now when I got back home. I just went through a few filters would like to throw out a few points I noticed, in case I die. @Keirathi After going through Kei's filter, goodkarma's case on Kei made much more sense. Kei's first page in his filter since the game started has literally zero scum hunting. He dedicate most of his post passively defending targets of other people's case. (Note: I directly copy paste text so text formatting is not preserved) I am not going to post his entire filter, look at his filter and I would be surprised if you don't agree with me. This is the only post where I found him writing a case Also, this post gives me a "funny" feeling: While there is nothing wrong to urge other players to contribute, I feel uneasy when this comes from a person where his filter consist of one case against players that are already being presented, and the rest of them were mostly him passively commenting on other people's cases, I feel like there is plausible + Show Spoiler + although speculative Keirathi also said this: Are you actually discouraging discussions here? For all I know scums can push their own agendas based on these "bad" discussions as well? @MrMedic I hope you don't miss your next vote, and since you claimed you are going to be free, (And I doubt scums would target you if you aren't one yourself), I would like to see more post from you in day 2. Don't worry, if you are town, just post when you see someone doing something scummy, and don't wait for another person to say it first: It will almost paint you in the wrong light. I refrained from looking at Shady Sands and Mordanis because the filters that I have been reading the entire time was theirs + Golbat's. I noticed So looks like you will be FoS me too, since I have been giving "excuses about IRL commitments"? I think it is best to declare when you're available to play so when you're being called out at least people knows you won't be around to response. That said, it's late over here so I won't be around in 8 hours, so in case I got killed, please consider my points here. Just a real quick one here--I called out Obvious because he made the wedding excuse after I made the point about his strange posting patterns (holding off on criticizing Golbat's lynch until after the fact, essentially, when if he thought Golbat was innocent he could have and should have been defending him quite actively prior to the lynch.) I don't see any strangeness from you in the dimension. | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
First, I understand that everyone has RL commitments that will keep them from babysitting this thread. However, claiming RL commitments post-facto, after people have called out suspicious absences, will make you look scummy. This is because as the game goes on post timing (and seeing who is bandwagoning on who) becomes a very important method of analysis. If we accept all post-facto RL excuses as valid, then it makes this sort of analysis useless. Second, here are some cases to look at: a) Mordanis After looking through his D1 posts, ironically enough, it was his post where he switched focus to analyzing my statistics claims that made me want to exonerate him of being scummy. That shows that he was not irrationally focused on Golbat. That being said, though, I think we should all keep in mind Mordanis' logic for going after Golbat: Golbat makes post that sounds accusatory without proper evidence + Golbat calls for end to debate = Golbat is scummy Remove the second part of that equation and Mordanis' case on Golbat (and all our reads on Golbat) fall flat. I think this is something to take note of here--I think this was a good case, but it was mostly because Golbat made a pretty bad mistake in calling for an end to debate with 40 hours to go in the day that Golbat ended up getting lynched. I'm also waiting for Mord's response to better flesh out why he initially pushed for the Golbat lynch. I think the town deserves an explanation given that Golbat flipped Vig. b) Obvious I'm still not satisfied with Obvious' lack of defense of his own position prior to the D1 lynch. Obvious hasn't attempted to respond to this argument yet. c) Promethelax After reading through Keir's posts on Prome's inactivity, I'm getting a little troubled too by Prome's play this game. Put simply, he was about 3x as active in Mafia XIX (when he was mafia) than in this game, and his analysis in this game has been mostly circumstantial as opposed to mutually supportive. Second, given that Keir knows Prome's playstyle the best, I'm going to go ahead and state that if Keir gets NK'd my suspicion will fall heavily on Promethelax as suggesting the NK to the rest of the scum team. Given that Keir hasn't been posting much of substance (but mostly been focusing on trying to confirm townies) it doesn't make sense for scum to go after him as opposed to another, more "case-oriented" player. d) Goodkarma My read on GK is still pretty gray. I haven't had the time to read through his latest posts in the filter yet, but given that a lot of people in the town are beginning to look at him, I will do so as well. | ||
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