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On July 19 2012 15:51 Hopeless1der wrote:Vigi hit: The mafia motive is to very weakly bus iamperfection, assuming they are both scum, while casting suspicion on Jingle and hoping to turn to you later to support him. The bus is the primary motive here to me.
First of all, I don't see where he casts suspicion on Jingle. He's definetely critical of Jingle's play, but I don't see any instances of him casting direct suspicion (link me a post if I'm wrong, could've missed something). Critical =/= accusatory. Secondly, his "bus" on iamperfection isn't weak at all. He's really consistent about his attitude towards him throughout D1 and holds his suspicions throughout N1. But here's the key point: why would mafia EVER try to push for a N1 vigi kill on their ally?!
Trying to Lynch Iamperfection: It WAS NOT completely hopeless at that point. The vote count never changed until after he'd made his statement that he was having a hard time defending Obvious.660 and gave up trying.
- You switched vote to iamperfection --> Obvious 5, iamperfection 2
- Calgar joins your vote --> Obvious 5, iamperfection 3
- Calgar half asses his defense of Obvious and fails to push for iamperfection in any meaningful manner (I know he has a lack of posts to analyze and make a case with, but there was essentially nothing done other than rehash the fact that he looks scummy without adding anything new)
- Fulla drops what could have been considered the hammer vote (plurality so not exactly, but whatever) At THIS point it is inevitable. Calgar had just about conceded his position two posts PRIOR to Fulla's vote.
There's no difference between 6-3 and 5-3. Both situations still require two people to switch votes. Furthermore, there was a lot of reason to believe that the relatively inactive Fulla wouldn't come in to vote at all.
Implying suspicion: There isn't a good reason for him to call Jingle town AND imply that he is being scummy. Calgar has seemingly done both, in that order. Though he maintains that Jingle is a town read, his 'elephant on piano keys' post details how Jingle's actions are scummier than calgar's, BUT Jingle is still a town read. This does not make sense to me and I considered that post to be riddled with scummy behavior.
Is it wildly inconsistent and not make sense? Yes. Is it mafia-motivated? No.
Why would he ever establish Jingle as a strong townie read? It just doesn't make sense from a mafia perspective. It's more plausible from a bad analysis/bad townie post perspective.
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Well guys, I’ve read your cases. It’s too much to respond to point-by-point without creating unnecessary clutter but I’ll answer any specific questions. I think a lot of it comes down to already having made up your mind when the filter opens and picking out only the worst while leaving the best. I don’t think I’m the best D2 lynch for reasons I’ve already stated. I’ve been aggressive and reckless, I’ll agree. It’s been intentional.
Look at how I’ve stuck with my strongest D1 read until now. I’ve made my strong reads known. I’ve called out mufaa, evul, and fulla to participate more. I’ve tried to pressure iamperfection into talking more but he doesn’t directly respond. I wasn’t trying to lead the town in the wrong direction with my breadcrumb post, but rather give my reads before N1 ended.
In response to accusing jingle of being mafia and saying he’s town – that wasn’t my intention. I’m frustrated at some of his bad logic and how his reads keep being wrong. I think if anyone had been actively posting in the thread or showed any doubts about switching during the D1 vote then I would have tried harder to get them to switch away from obvious. In hind-sight I should have tried harder but that doesn’t matter at this point.
In response to YourHarry, I made point #12 very quickly at the end of my pre-typed post. I was confused about what you were suggesting by claiming that people should claim role-blocked but you guys clarified it by the time I posted so I withdrew the claim because I understood what you meant.
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On July 19 2012 20:56 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2012 15:51 Hopeless1der wrote:Vigi hit: The mafia motive is to very weakly bus iamperfection, assuming they are both scum, while casting suspicion on Jingle and hoping to turn to you later to support him. The bus is the primary motive here to me. First of all, I don't see where he casts suspicion on Jingle. He's definetely critical of Jingle's play, but I don't see any instances of him casting direct suspicion (link me a post if I'm wrong, could've missed something). Critical =/= accusatory. Secondly, his "bus" on iamperfection isn't weak at all. He's really consistent about his attitude towards him throughout D1 and holds his suspicions throughout N1. But here's the key point: why would mafia EVER try to push for a N1 vigi kill on their ally?! Show nested quote +Trying to Lynch Iamperfection: It WAS NOT completely hopeless at that point. The vote count never changed until after he'd made his statement that he was having a hard time defending Obvious.660 and gave up trying.
- You switched vote to iamperfection --> Obvious 5, iamperfection 2
- Calgar joins your vote --> Obvious 5, iamperfection 3
- Calgar half asses his defense of Obvious and fails to push for iamperfection in any meaningful manner (I know he has a lack of posts to analyze and make a case with, but there was essentially nothing done other than rehash the fact that he looks scummy without adding anything new)
- Fulla drops what could have been considered the hammer vote (plurality so not exactly, but whatever) At THIS point it is inevitable. Calgar had just about conceded his position two posts PRIOR to Fulla's vote. There's no difference between 6-3 and 5-3. Both situations still require two people to switch votes. Furthermore, there was a lot of reason to believe that the relatively inactive Fulla wouldn't come in to vote at all. Show nested quote +Implying suspicion: There isn't a good reason for him to call Jingle town AND imply that he is being scummy. Calgar has seemingly done both, in that order. Though he maintains that Jingle is a town read, his 'elephant on piano keys' post details how Jingle's actions are scummier than calgar's, BUT Jingle is still a town read. This does not make sense to me and I considered that post to be riddled with scummy behavior. Is it wildly inconsistent and not make sense? Yes. Is it mafia-motivated? No. Why would he ever establish Jingle as a strong townie read? It just doesn't make sense from a mafia perspective. It's more plausible from a bad analysis/bad townie post perspective.
1: The post was already linked. He directly implied only a scummy motive would want more evidence with perfection rather than wanting a vigi hit. You bring up WIFOM, but let's face it. At that point in time, if I was on the scum team, I'd be thinking the best possible use for Perfection would be dying to get me town credit.
2:Scum need at least one visible townie to keep around as a smokescreen for their own active players until later in the game. If they've been known to be unlucky like me, so much the better. Scum can't push an agenda if the entire thread is quiet.
3: Calgar, despite being so much more logical than me (according to himself) has yet to respond to my points with anything other than attempts to pick fights.
4: You've asked why scum Calgar would have posted telling us to stop fighting. That's ridiculous. Visible scum aiming for town leadership should do exactly that.
5: My case may seem like it's made up of tiny little things... wasn't it Calgar who, at the beginning, gave the scum a huge amount of credit saying not to look for big obvious things?
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What did you mean with your secret breadcrumb?
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Why are you changing the subject?
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On July 19 2012 22:19 JingleHell wrote:
Why are you changing the subject? I'm curious. I've said I'll answer anything specific. I don't think it will be productive to go through everyone's huge lists with a long typed up response. Too much clutter.
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YourHarry is the only guy who's given me a clear town read although somewhat retracted now?
I'm not quite sure what to make off it as I've been mostly inactive and lurky.
Last game I played another guy did this to me, I then fingered a scum, my 'ally' supported me and we got him lynched and then the other seeminly scummy players. It actually turned out my 'ally' was in fact the other scum and had bussed the other mafia to manipulate me the whole game. But anyways.
On July 17 2012 11:31 YourHarry wrote:
Obvious.660 is obviously mafia. Kill with fire.
On July 17 2012 11:36 YourHarry wrote:
KILL OBVIOUS.660!!!
Wtf is with these posts? Then you retract then back on. Seems very dodgy overall.
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On July 19 2012 08:54 YourHarry wrote:
When Evul asked for a replacement, there was no hint of him being a power role. There are two possible explanations for this:
1. Scums didn't read that Evul is replacing out. (Not likely that all three or four missed this)
2. Some of scums really did not want speedbumps, who was going to replace Evul, to contribute to scumhunting
There is a third explanation, but I do not want to disclose that right now.
Can we have the 3rd explanation now?
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On July 19 2012 22:31 calgar wrote:I'm curious. I've said I'll answer anything specific. I don't think it will be productive to go through everyone's huge lists with a long typed up response. Too much clutter.
Fulla, your question is about to be answered here, too, I think. Calgar, let's make sure we're on the same page with what you want me to be answering. And I'll be more than thrilled to answer.
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I read Calgar as pro town, he seems generally trying alot to promote discussion. I find it interesting how certain people are heavily laying into him.
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I find hopeless suspicious, when tube was getting heavily criticized, he stayed out of it and just kept going about me being inactive. Not just a hey Fulla post more.
On July 17 2012 09:00 Hopeless1der wrote:
In other news, Fulla's filter makes me nervous. + Show Spoiler +
Just under 4 hours until a full day from his welcome post. Wtf? Perhaps busy or something, but ffs, that looks fishy. FoS Fulla
On July 17 2012 09:00 Hopeless1der wrote:
Fulla it took over 24 hours from your first post to your second. Any comment beyond I'm new? Is this your normal posting habits or can we expect more from you?
I don't know what a rough statistic of what a one-liner poster might flip as, but it is not the same as an overactive day1 poster. The lack of content is what is detrimental, and that is reason enough for suspicion because that type of posting is beneficial to mafia. In general I don't believe an overly active poster could be hurting town unless he was actively pushing scummy agenda's and would probably get called out for it.
But of course just enough time to pop in and keep the suspicion on Obvious but he's actually gonna vote for me.
On July 18 2012 00:03 Hopeless1der wrote:Going through Obvious's filter: - Obvious.660 looks at YourHarry's early vote and manages to turn it into a big 'sacraficial lamb' strategy involving iamperfection and some unknown third scum (soon to be accused: tube)
- Responds to Jingle with an 'If I was Mafia...blah blah blah" Unacceptable as a defense due to WIFOM.
- Spends time trying to get tube to contribute. When tube finally steps up, he goes through a 'coached response, kill it' phase.
- Gets called out and somehow relates his vote back to his crazy sacrificial lamb strategy
- Says he got thrown off by the Capitalization, punctuation and paragraphs used by tube - after we spent so long ragging on tube for being useless and asking him to improve his posting. Obvious.660 was involved in asking tube to improve his posting.
Obvious.660's whole interaction regarding tube looks scummy. More to follow later, my vote remains on Fulla for the time being, but I'm heavily considering switching to Obvious.660 The other thing is that your reads are needed to help town no matter how newbie they are. Don't let that stop you.
The ideal environment for scum would be where EVERYONE is suspicious in everyones eyes. Where they can easily just slip in a vote or two to push the lynch count on someone, slowly passing through the days wiping out the town.
I was not the only 1 lurking, yet it had barely been a day and he wants everyone know how suspicious I am?
On July 18 2012 08:48 Hopeless1der wrote:
Content notwithstanding, the following players are still on a 1 page filter:
(Post count started from Day 1 post)
Iamperfection: 3 posts
Fulla: 5 posts
Mufaa: 5 posts
drwiggl3s: 14 posts
Evulrabbitz: 7 posts
Players from above who voted for Obvious.660:
Iamperfection
Evulrabbitz
Fulla
I'll be gone for a bit. Going to look into iamperfection when I return, because he looks scummiest of the players listed there.
This to me reads, his scum buddies got Obvious lynched, but these instead wants these 3 lynched. Note that Evlrabbitz turned out town as well.
It leads to believe iamperfection is in fact town as well.
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It looks like we're reading into Calgar posts completely differently.
On July 19 2012 21:53 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2012 20:56 Hapahauli wrote:On July 19 2012 15:51 Hopeless1der wrote:Vigi hit: The mafia motive is to very weakly bus iamperfection, assuming they are both scum, while casting suspicion on Jingle and hoping to turn to you later to support him. The bus is the primary motive here to me. First of all, I don't see where he casts suspicion on Jingle. He's definetely critical of Jingle's play, but I don't see any instances of him casting direct suspicion (link me a post if I'm wrong, could've missed something). Critical =/= accusatory. Secondly, his "bus" on iamperfection isn't weak at all. He's really consistent about his attitude towards him throughout D1 and holds his suspicions throughout N1. But here's the key point: why would mafia EVER try to push for a N1 vigi kill on their ally?! Trying to Lynch Iamperfection: It WAS NOT completely hopeless at that point. The vote count never changed until after he'd made his statement that he was having a hard time defending Obvious.660 and gave up trying.
- You switched vote to iamperfection --> Obvious 5, iamperfection 2
- Calgar joins your vote --> Obvious 5, iamperfection 3
- Calgar half asses his defense of Obvious and fails to push for iamperfection in any meaningful manner (I know he has a lack of posts to analyze and make a case with, but there was essentially nothing done other than rehash the fact that he looks scummy without adding anything new)
- Fulla drops what could have been considered the hammer vote (plurality so not exactly, but whatever) At THIS point it is inevitable. Calgar had just about conceded his position two posts PRIOR to Fulla's vote. There's no difference between 6-3 and 5-3. Both situations still require two people to switch votes. Furthermore, there was a lot of reason to believe that the relatively inactive Fulla wouldn't come in to vote at all. Implying suspicion: There isn't a good reason for him to call Jingle town AND imply that he is being scummy. Calgar has seemingly done both, in that order. Though he maintains that Jingle is a town read, his 'elephant on piano keys' post details how Jingle's actions are scummier than calgar's, BUT Jingle is still a town read. This does not make sense to me and I considered that post to be riddled with scummy behavior. Is it wildly inconsistent and not make sense? Yes. Is it mafia-motivated? No. Why would he ever establish Jingle as a strong townie read? It just doesn't make sense from a mafia perspective. It's more plausible from a bad analysis/bad townie post perspective. 1: The post was already linked. He directly implied only a scummy motive would want more evidence with perfection rather than wanting a vigi hit. You bring up WIFOM, but let's face it. At that point in time, if I was on the scum team, I'd be thinking the best possible use for Perfection would be dying to get me town credit. 2:Scum need at least one visible townie to keep around as a smokescreen for their own active players until later in the game. If they've been known to be unlucky like me, so much the better. Scum can't push an agenda if the entire thread is quiet. 3: Calgar, despite being so much more logical than me (according to himself) has yet to respond to my points with anything other than attempts to pick fights. 4: You've asked why scum Calgar would have posted telling us to stop fighting. That's ridiculous. Visible scum aiming for town leadership should do exactly that. 5: My case may seem like it's made up of tiny little things... wasn't it Calgar who, at the beginning, gave the scum a huge amount of credit saying not to look for big obvious things?
1) Perfection wasn't close to dying at any point in D1. Also, Calgar initiated the suspicion and was the first to vote against Perfection. I'd understand if Perfection attracted significant suspicion beforehand, but Tube was coming under very heavy fire for the few pages prior to Calgar's initial suspicion: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=16#302
2) You're speculating what mafia's going to do - how are we to know what the Mafia's plans are? Also, I don't understand the "unlucky" thing.
3) We're not even half-way into D2, so I don't want to make judgments on the validity of his defense.
4) I read this action the complete opposite. There's a lot of town motive in stopping thread-derailing fights as well. Could it be a mafia ploy? Maybe, but highly highly unlikely.
5) I don't follow your logic here. You're suggesting that Calgar willingly posted this scumhunting advice knowing it would hurt him in the future?
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I screwed up the quoting, I meant to add, the part where he jumps in throws in more suspicion on Obvious, keeping it thriving, then try's to stay out of it and takes a stance that's he still going to vote me for lurking anyways.
That to me is very scummy.
##Vote Hopeless1der
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I'll read that now and post my thoughts later tonight.
The best play style for town thou I think is to go for the scummiest player and then later try and piece together his allies once confirmed. Rather than find all 3 at once, which can screw up the hunt and lets mafia manipulate to much.
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That reads painfully like an OMGUS, Fulla.
I have something relatively damning waiting to come to light, the only reason I've held off on it was to wait for it to become less circumstantial, which it has. Since Calgar commented on it, I'll present it. Although since I agreed to it, he suddenly seems wary of bringing my breadcrumb he commented on to light.
On July 18 2012 23:57 JingleHell wrote:
Just As well I Love EvulRabbitz, since he seems a bit off. Could just be A blue again. Loved his Great job As detective Really.
Obviously, I'm all for forcing Perfection to be active during the day today, how do you guys feel about frontloading a few votes on him while we do our discussion?
I'm still a bit nervous about YourHarry, and frankly, as much as there's going to be people calling this scummy, I still feel it's wise to give a slight BOTD to perfection, just because he really does seem too easy to lynch. A hypothetical townie perfection would just be the world's easiest mislynch to feed us.
Rather visible, yes? "Jailer Calgar." That's right, Calgar was jailed. Now, you might wonder what good that could do? Well, something I've been paranoid about was the possibility of a Hapa scum. It would take fairly damning evidence for me to accuse him without it looking like an extension of our dislike for each other, even though we've kept votes off each other throughout.
Well, if we assume townie, with Calgar blocked and protected, the most obvious target for an NK would be Hapa. Especially since there's usually not that many blue roles in newbie games, with Vet flipped, and me obviously on Calgar, Hapa should have been fair game. Instead, they went for Evul. Two possible values for this. One, it could look like I was breadcrumbing an NK, putting suspicion on me, but since scum can talk in QT, that would just be arrogant and foolish. Also, if Hapahauli was scum, they obviously wouldn't NK him, so they just killed a random dude.
Since I posted heavy suspicions on Calgar for his post about vigi hit on Perfection after that, Hapa has stepped in to defend him, posting copious amounts of WIFOM.
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I'm a bit confused, are you saying you 'deliberately' tried to encourage scum to kill Hapa, but since he wasn't he must be scum?
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I'm saying that if Calgar and Hapa were both really town, they'd have been the top targets based on activity and votes. Since I can't make a case against Hapa without extra evidence, yes, I left a visible breadcrumb of who I was jailing, to see if they'd target the other.
They didn't, which lends credence to my fear that Hapa is scum.
Calling it "trying to encourage scum to kill Hapa" is an unfair misrepresentation. This is mafia. Everyone is guilty until proven innocent. So I left a deliberate opening, Hapa wasn't killed, and when the case starts showing up against Calgar, Hapa defends him with very weak WIFOM.
Yeah, circumstance. Welcome to how Mafia is played. It's not conclusive in and of itself, but it certainly would make sense.
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On July 19 2012 23:23 JingleHell wrote:
That reads painfully like an OMGUS, Fulla.
I actually had to look that up on google. So he votes me, I get angry and react voting him back?
The point was:
- He didn't contribute to other suspicions/discussions.
- Kept on and on about how inactive I am. (other inactive players what about them?) Why so over the top?
- Seems he REALLY wanted me in the spotlight with suspicion.
- Still managed to come in and make sure obvious was lynched.
- But try to stay out of it with me and his target.
Is that not dodgy?
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So you're saying that both Calgar AND I are scum? All this based on a breadcrumb that mafia may or may not have seen?! Really?
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EBWOP: that was directed at Jingle
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/jmnsf.jpg)
